1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am Akshatrati this week how to 2 00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:19,800 Speaker 1: be bullish on climate tech. Everywhere you look it seems 3 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: like bad news for climate tech. Investments are down, the 4 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: US government has cut incentives, and startups are starting to 5 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: run out of cash. But some people are still bullish. 6 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: They believe that the fundamentals are in place, the solutions 7 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 1: are only getting better, and green tech will continue to 8 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:41,840 Speaker 1: get cheaper, even start to displace fossil fuels. Vinoth Cosla 9 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:42,880 Speaker 1: is one of them. 10 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: Mostly in business, people look for lowering the probability of failure, 11 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 2: even if it lowers. 12 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 3: The consequences of success. 13 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 2: My personal entire life is dedicated to i'twind the probability 14 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 2: of but I want the consequences success to be consequential. 15 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: Vinode is as close to Silicon Valley royalty as you 16 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: can get. In the nineteen eighties, he started Sun Microsystems, 17 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 1: which was eventually acquired by Oracle in twenty ten for 18 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 1: seven point four billion dollars. In two thousand and four, 19 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: he founded Coaslaw Ventures, a firm that has backed big 20 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 1: tech success stories like Door, dash, Stripe, and Instacart. He 21 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:31,040 Speaker 1: also invests in climate startups such as impossible foods and 22 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: Commonwealth fusion systems. Though Vinod was a longtime Republican voter, 23 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: last year before the US elections, he came out in 24 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 1: support for Kamala Harris. Now he remains skeptical of the 25 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: Trump administration, but he is open minded about what Donald 26 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: Trump could do and is doing for clean energy. That's despite, 27 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: of course, the One Big Beautiful Bill, which has reversed 28 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: many of the climate policies and incentives that the US 29 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: government used to have. Regular listeners of the podcast will 30 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 1: remember my conversation with Winnowed last year where he talked 31 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 1: about his feud with Elon Musk before the twenty twenty 32 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: four elections. Last week, I caught up with Winnode again 33 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: for a live conversation at the Bloomberg Green event in 34 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 1: Seattle to find out when we can expect to see fusion, 35 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,800 Speaker 1: whether he's reconsidering investing in the US, and why he 36 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: still thinks the best clean tech is yet to come. 37 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 1: Good morning, Winolt. We are in beautiful Seattle. There's going 38 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: to be a lot of discussion today about climate change, 39 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 1: about what needs to be done to tackle it, but 40 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: we should start with the headline, which is the tax 41 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: and spending bill that present from signed into law is 42 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: going to reduce clean energy spending by one estimate, by 43 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: five hundred billion dollars over the next five years, and 44 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: as a result, all estimates show that the US is 45 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: going to miss its twenty thirty climate goals. Is much 46 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 1: that climate advocates don't like about the bill, But you 47 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: wrote in a recent op ed that you are happy 48 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: that the tax credits that were going to win solar 49 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: and electric vehicles have been cut. Why because there's better 50 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: uses for the money. Very simply, you know, these subsidies 51 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 1: once they start perpetuate and there isn't Energy is a 52 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 1: serious business. You can't subsidize. 53 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 2: All of energy at scale. So when do you stop them? 54 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 2: I think by the time they are a few percent 55 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 2: less than five percent off the market they're serving. Subsidies 56 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 2: in every industry should always start be high, be declining 57 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 2: over time, and by the time there are a few 58 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 2: percent of a segment, they should be stopped and the 59 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 2: money should go to better uses. 60 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: The Cormpan administration has made a clearer doesn't care very 61 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: much about climate change. But the US Congress before the 62 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: bill passed, did protect some clean energy tax credits so 63 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: there are tax credits that remain for nuclear for geothermal, 64 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: do you think those tax credits would be enough to 65 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 1: get nuclear? Well, nuclear, traditional nuclear is already at a 66 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: high percentage, but we are talking about advanced nuclear, which 67 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: doesn't really exist today, and geothermal, which again traditional version 68 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: is in small amounts, but advanced geothermal doesn't really exist today. 69 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: Do you think the tax preens that we do have 70 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:32,359 Speaker 1: in the bill will be enough to get nuclear and 71 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: geothermal to the level you want it to reach. 72 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 3: So each technology is a little bit different. 73 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 2: Nuclear problem isn't that it doesn't have enough subsidies. Nuclear 74 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 2: problem is nimbiism has held it back. Every nuclear project 75 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 2: takes ten years longer than you think it well because 76 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 2: people like gain fund us so the thick I overjoke. 77 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 2: Environmentalists got more core plants to be built in this 78 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 2: country than anybody else by stopping nuclear in the seventies 79 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 2: and eighties, and that gives very unfortunate because they're not 80 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 2: thoughtful about what's the replacement. So nuclear's problem is nimbeism. 81 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 2: Super hot geothermal, there's old geothermal, and I include companies 82 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 2: like Fervo and others in old geothermal essentially below what's 83 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 2: called supercritical steam. Steam above a certain temperature, which is 84 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 2: around four hundred degrees has way more energy content. So 85 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 2: four hundred and fifty degrees sandigrade well will have five 86 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 2: times the amount of energy that at two hundred and 87 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 2: fifty degrees sandi grade Worldwille and you have to be 88 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 2: realistic about it. So the problem isn't geothermal. The problem 89 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 2: is the economics of geothermal. Subsidies will help, but what 90 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 2: really helps is developing technology to drill to four h 91 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 2: and fifty degrees because normal metal drill bits collapse well 92 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 2: before that temperature. So it's getting to the right temperature 93 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 2: and the right technical breakthroughs, and nobody's doing that today. 94 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 2: We have a couple of efforts in our portfolio, hard 95 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 2: efforts to go at that. But if you do that, 96 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about climate because your tumble 97 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 2: will be cheaper. 98 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 3: Than natural gas. 99 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 2: Unsubsidized subsidies will help, But in fact it's really not 100 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 2: a problem in geo tumble. It's just not enough people 101 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 2: have worked on the hard problem. They've worked on hand 102 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 2: baby problems. 103 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 1: And so let's take them one by one. Because you've 104 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: invested in nuclear. 105 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 2: By the way, we didn't talk about fusion, which I'm 106 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 2: exactley very bullish on. I think five years from now 107 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 2: nobody will be talking about alternatives to fusion as a 108 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,479 Speaker 2: power source for the planet for the next fifty years. 109 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: Well, you were on the podcast last year and you 110 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: said in five years from twenty twenty four, there will 111 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: be a nuclear fusion plant. 112 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 3: It's four years now, left, Okay, there will be a 113 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 3: new Cleobe. 114 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 2: Well, no, I think I very precisely said nobody will 115 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 2: debate whether fusion will work, which means we will have 116 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 2: demonstrated positive energy, and we will have very clear idea 117 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 2: of the economic subfufusion plan and scaling of fusion plans. 118 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 2: All those are very very doable. I expect it will 119 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 2: happen much before twenty twenty eight or twenty twenty nine. 120 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 2: Five years from last year would be twenty twenty nine. 121 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure one of the dozen reasonable efforts will 122 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 2: prove out that it is going to be a viable 123 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:55,239 Speaker 2: energy source. And there's a dozen efforts. Only one needs 124 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 2: to work to solve the planet's energy problem. Only one 125 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 2: geothermal technology needs to work. And I'm a big fan 126 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 2: of nuclear too, just it has the social problems of nimbiism. 127 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: We're talking here within very high timelines. So if you 128 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 1: go back to the bill again, estimates show that price 129 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: of electricity is going to go up as a result 130 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: of these tax credit cuts, but also because of shortages 131 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: of equipment, simple stuff like transformers, like cables, things that 132 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: we've covered here at bloombergreen that are becoming a bottleneck 133 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: to build out the grid for all the electricity demand, 134 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:39,959 Speaker 1: especially from AI that's coming. So if electricity prices go up, 135 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 1: building power regardless of where it's coming from new technologies, 136 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 1: all technologies is hard. Do you think that becomes the 137 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 1: bottleneck for the AI ambitions that America has. It's not researchers, 138 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: it's not startups, it's not investors putting money. 139 00:08:56,080 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 2: I think you're confusing a number of things. The subsidies 140 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 2: have nothing to do with electricity prices going up. 141 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 3: Right. 142 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:11,559 Speaker 2: Solar subsidies will slow down the deployment of solar, agree, 143 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 2: but it's still cheaper for intermittent power than any other 144 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 2: source of energy. So if you're trying to use intermittent 145 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 2: power and come up with clever strategies, For example, production 146 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 2: of hydrogen can be done with intermittent power. 147 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 3: You want the cheapest power. 148 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 2: You want solar and wind to produce hydrogen, but you 149 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 2: don't want solar and wind to power a home because 150 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 2: you want to watch the football game when it's on, 151 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 2: not when the wind's blowing or the sun shining. This 152 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 2: is silliness. There's related concepts. Net zero is the worst 153 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 2: idea I've ever heard for homes, but environmental is keep 154 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:57,959 Speaker 2: pushing this bad, uneconomic idea as if economics don't matter. 155 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: By prices of electricity, we'll go up, not just because 156 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: of the tax guys, but because of all these bottlenecks 157 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 1: to the being. 158 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 2: So I think the price of electricity will go up 159 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 2: because the demand has surprised us, and demand projections for 160 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 2: the next five ten years have surprised us. With the 161 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 2: advent of AI, h is two years old. You know, 162 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 2: AI didn't have any deployment two years ago, or minimal deployment, 163 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 2: and suddenly it's going to be the large consumer of power. 164 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 2: So the change in demand is what has caused the problem. Now, 165 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 2: nimbiism like grid again is going to be a problem. 166 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 3: But data centers don't need the grid. 167 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 2: You can put the data center where the power sources, 168 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 2: So I do think grid helps, But the demand problem 169 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,839 Speaker 2: is created by the projected increase in demand from AI 170 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 2: data centers, which can be located near power. 171 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: So the challenge of the AI data centers is that 172 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: they want power all the time, and so you're going 173 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 1: to build solar next to the data center, you're not 174 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: going to be able to run it all the time. 175 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: That's why they're relying on gas, which is getting harder 176 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: to build because gas turbines are difficult. So the question 177 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: is do you worry about the fact that America's competitiveness 178 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: on AI will be held back because if energy issues broadly, 179 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: not just renewables or not. 180 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 2: I do worry talked about data centers a lot. I 181 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 2: think the answer to that is scaling capacity. I do 182 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 2: think super hot geothermal is a perfect technology for that. 183 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 2: Twenty thirty five on, it will all be fusion as 184 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 2: the scaling technology and super hart geothermal. Hopefully nuclear too, 185 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 2: but again citing nuclear is very hard. But you can 186 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 2: put a data center right next to a nuclear plant 187 00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 2: without needing a grade because that's the right way to 188 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 2: do data. So data center demand is different because it 189 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 2: doesn't put as much of attax on the grid, if. 190 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: It's not attached to the grid, and if it's attached 191 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,199 Speaker 1: to a powerline on its own or close by. 192 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 3: Yeah. 193 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: Now, you invest in a lot of companies that are 194 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 1: American that are started here, that are startups over here. 195 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: Those companies are created by people often who have come 196 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 1: to this country like you came to this country. And 197 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: there have been over the past six months difficulties. University 198 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: funding has been cut. This bill cuts a lot of 199 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 1: science funding. Do you worry that the level of ideas 200 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,680 Speaker 1: that you are able to get hold off to be 201 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,560 Speaker 1: able to invest in these companies is going to reduce 202 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 1: and that again affects America's competitiveness. 203 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, most of you should. 204 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 2: Now, I am vehemently against Trump in the current administration 205 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 2: and its value system. So you know, even though I 206 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:56,559 Speaker 2: agree with certain things they've done, I mostly disagree with 207 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 2: their policies, immigration being one of them. They will shut 208 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 2: down the import of talent, which is the key to growth. 209 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 2: So if I were to look at and I had 210 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 2: an op ed in The Economist a week ago, and 211 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 2: just this week Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary, had another 212 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:18,319 Speaker 2: op ed. 213 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 3: He said, all we need is energy. 214 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 2: I do think we need energy, but we need more 215 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 2: importantly talent, and talent they're shutting off with their approach 216 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 2: to immigration. Even the people who will legally immigrate don't 217 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 2: like a hostile environment to go into. So we will 218 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:47,079 Speaker 2: reduce talented immigration of PhDs and people equipped to solve 219 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 2: climate and other technology problems into this country. Unfortunately, what 220 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 2: will you do as a result. You're an investor, you 221 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 2: invest in companies. 222 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 1: You have capital that you want to put towards these ideas. 223 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:58,959 Speaker 1: Do you just go outside America? 224 00:13:59,040 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 3: Well? 225 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:05,200 Speaker 2: Absolutely, Look, people are anyway going outside America, and so 226 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 2: most companies have multiple locations within America and outside America 227 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 2: to go seek the talent. When Russia became a pariah 228 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 2: with the Ukraine attack, people set up new offices in 229 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 2: Turkey to get Russian scientists to move from Moscow to 230 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 2: Turkey so they could take advantage of them because those 231 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 2: scientists didn't want to work aligned with Putin's regime. So 232 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 2: talent will flow to wherever they're welcomed, and they're very 233 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 2: much in human. I mean, there's some of the salaries 234 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 2: in the SAI space. Two hundred and fifty million dollars 235 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 2: a year, million dollars a day. Those numbers aren't unheard of. 236 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 2: In fact, they're sort of becoming more common than I'd 237 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 2: like to see. But talent drives everything, maybe even more 238 00:14:58,320 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 2: than energy. 239 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: And so are used to to do that. Are you 240 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: looking at startups in other countries? 241 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 2: And well, we've always looked at startups in all countries. 242 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 2: I think the bulka of our effort is in the 243 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 2: US still and will continue to be. But we look 244 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 2: at talent everywhere. 245 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 1: And where do you think are the emerging hubs? 246 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 2: Well, leaving aside China because I'm very hawkish on China. 247 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 2: I think there's some evil regimes in the on this planet. 248 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 2: India's Great Hub, Canada's great Hub. You know, there's a 249 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 2: lot of talent in Canada. AI started around Toronto in 250 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 2: that area, so a lot of talent there. But frankly, 251 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 2: talent everywhere is being repurposed into this AI domain. 252 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: After the break I talked with we know about the 253 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: pace of innovation and the consequences of failure. And hey, 254 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: if you're finding this episode inside, well, please take a 255 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts 256 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 1: and Spotify. Your feedback really matters and helps new listeners 257 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 1: discover the show. Thank you. If you stick to climate tech. 258 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 1: The level of investment has been going down. Just total 259 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: investment in climate tech has been going down for quite 260 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: some years. The latest figures that we have for the 261 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: first half of this year is thirteen point two billion 262 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: dollars invested in climate tech. That's down about nineteen percent. 263 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 1: You invest in a lot more than climate has your 264 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: own spending in climate tech gone down as well? 265 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 3: No, I think it's been pretty consistent. The thing you 266 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 3: have to forget. 267 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 2: Is these aggregated numbers are mostly irrelevant to somebody in 268 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:54,479 Speaker 2: my part of the climate world, which is breakthrough technologies. 269 00:16:55,120 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 2: So my personal view, unless you have breakthrough technologies, you're 270 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 2: not going to get broad deployment. Even if you did 271 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 2: regulation in the EU and you got shut down all 272 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 2: their steel mills, they're going to get steel from somewhere, 273 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 2: and that's not going to come from a country that's 274 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 2: adapted green steel. 275 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 3: At twice the price. 276 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 2: So most of the efforts on steel are relatively poor efforts. 277 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 2: In Sweden, there's a green steel effort, there's a couple 278 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 2: of steel green steel efforts in this area. I think 279 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 2: they're generally poor efforts. Why because when they're successful, they 280 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 2: are not cheaper than regular steel. We have efforts, it 281 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 2: was only attempt is to get cheaper than regular steel 282 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 2: and have low carbon emissions. And it's an and, not or, 283 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 2: and that's what's key for broad deployment of any of 284 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 2: these technologies. So my and that doesn't come for we 285 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,719 Speaker 2: have a much higher risk of failing because we are 286 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 2: taking much more technical risk. In steel, we're taking way 287 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 2: more technical risk than anybody. But I'm pretty certain we 288 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 2: have steel salt or steel will be cheaper than cold 289 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 2: based steel in this country or in China. If that's 290 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 2: the case, there's no reason, whether you care about climate 291 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,479 Speaker 2: or not, to build anything but the cheapest steel. And 292 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 2: we can use the cheapest ores. The enrichment ores are 293 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:38,119 Speaker 2: what matter because they're cheap and they make your steel cheaper. 294 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 2: Same thing in cemac or cement plants and we are 295 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 2: repurposing cement are actually costs less per ton for far 296 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 2: lower carbon, but the far lower carbon comes for free. 297 00:18:55,359 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 2: And that is my point. Taking more technical risk is 298 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 2: not about billions. It's about millions taking small amounts of 299 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 2: money on projects that most likely will fail, but if 300 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,479 Speaker 2: they succeed, they change the world, Versus things that are 301 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 2: incrementally better, are better than anything else, but not good 302 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 2: enough to compete with fossil. 303 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 1: So I want to come to breakthrough technologies. But there's 304 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 1: one point that you make. So in Europe ED you 305 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 1: talk about green steel, green cement, you talk about geothermal 306 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 1: and nuclear. But these products require a market that you know, 307 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 1: if it's cheaper than the alternative, you don't need to 308 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 1: work sell. But you are also entering a space in 309 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 1: the Trump administration that is biasing the market for more carbon. 310 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 1: So their tax credits for oil and gas drilling, that 311 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 1: tax credits for metallurgical coal in this bill. Now, venture capitalists, 312 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:53,919 Speaker 1: not just you, but others have told me, like, we 313 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: don't invest in companies based on government policy. We like 314 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 1: the companies to succeed on their own. But when the 315 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 1: market is being biased for carbon, how do you compete? 316 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 2: No question, the fossil industry is on the inn in Washington, DC, 317 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 2: and they've received trillions of dollars of subsidies over time, 318 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 2: whether you're talking about a favorable tax policy like MLPs 319 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 2: or master limited partnerships or advantage tax treatment, or the 320 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 2: billions and billions or one hundred billions we spend providing 321 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 2: security for oil in the mid East. That's a subsidy 322 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 2: because we are providing security to oil lanes. Those are 323 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 2: all subsidies in my view, But the current administration won't 324 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,880 Speaker 2: acknowledge that. So what can you do? 325 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,959 Speaker 1: Then? Let's come to the breakthrough technology a part, because 326 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 1: one reason you won't invest in a company is it's 327 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: not going to be profitable, but another and a more 328 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: intriguing excellent This is something you've talked about, but also 329 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 1: your fellow Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, has talked about that. 330 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 1: Regardless of the politics, the pace of truly transformational breakthroughs 331 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 1: in science and technology has been slowing down. 332 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 3: Do you agree? 333 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 2: I do generally agree, and people are looking for easier 334 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 2: So mostly in business, people look for lowering the probability 335 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 2: of failure, even if it lowers. 336 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:36,879 Speaker 3: The consequences of success. 337 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 2: My personal entire life is dedicated to I don't mind 338 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 2: the probability of failure, but I want the consequences of 339 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 2: success to be consequential. If have ten efforts, one of 340 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 2: them produces cheaper stale, it makes up for all the 341 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 2: other losses. Now, this is the technology that not only 342 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 2: is the steal for the world, that's low carbon, but 343 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 2: also American manufacturing, prowess in exports, and all the good 344 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 2: things any traditional business person would recognize. I think we 345 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 2: have that and still done. I think we have that 346 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:24,360 Speaker 2: done in Semang. I think fusion will get there. Very 347 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,880 Speaker 2: likely super hot geo thermal will get there. These are 348 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,919 Speaker 2: core technologies. And you know, as much as I'm not 349 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,680 Speaker 2: a fan of Alant, he's done a good job with EVS. 350 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:40,399 Speaker 2: There's no chance any policy would have achieved what he 351 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,440 Speaker 2: achieved by just bearing on EVS. 352 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 1: You know, you talked about some environmentalists who have, you know, 353 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: stop nuclear plants and as a result, have ended up 354 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:52,160 Speaker 1: building more coal power plants. You know, you could break 355 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: up the environmental movement in many parts or you know, 356 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: different philosophies. One of the philosophies is what is yours, 357 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 1: which is you have breakthrough technologies, and because they're cheaper, 358 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 1: the market for those technologies wins out. There's another philosophy, 359 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 1: which is we already have most of the technologies, not 360 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 1: all of them, but most of the technologies that we need. 361 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,239 Speaker 1: We just need to build them out and build them 362 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: out quickly. Now, if you are worried about breakthroughs, declining 363 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 1: or slowing down? Would you be betting on Well, let's 364 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 1: double down on what exists and deploy it. 365 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 2: No, that's a silly notion, and a few people have 366 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 2: pushed that idea, and it's a bad idea. In fact, 367 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 2: two years ago, for I think twenty twenty two, i'd 368 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 2: OPAD and economies the fundamentally argue that to get to 369 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 2: zero carbon emissions by twenty fifty, we'd have to give 370 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 2: up the goal, give up the goal for lower emissions 371 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 2: by twenty thirty, because if you're deploying poor technologies. More broadly, 372 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 2: we have less money to deploy breakthrough technologies, ain less 373 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:09,439 Speaker 2: money to invest in breakthrough technologies, So we can shoot 374 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 2: for twenty thirty goals or twenty fifty much better for 375 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 2: the planet. And of course we don't know how much 376 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 2: time we have on the planet before we get exponential 377 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:27,439 Speaker 2: increase in temperatures and climate effects. It's better to develop 378 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:32,159 Speaker 2: the right technologies and deploy them broadly, then take what 379 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,959 Speaker 2: we have and try and deploy them. We saw the 380 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 2: disaster in the Spains electric grid not very long ago. 381 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 2: That can happen here too, So I do think we 382 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 2: need to be very thoughtful and very businesslide. Even if 383 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 2: we do it, India is not going to do it. 384 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 2: Today India is one of the fastest growing solar markets, 385 00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 2: but goal is growing faster. More coal is being deployed 386 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 2: than ever being deployed before, and that the same is 387 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 2: true I think similarly of China. So we can look 388 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 2: at the solar numbers which have been climbing, but it's 389 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 2: because total demand for energy is large, and some things 390 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 2: work with intimittent power, and it's cheaper to do intimittent power, 391 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 2: so we should do that with intermittent power. 392 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 3: Other things have to have reliable power. 393 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: So the Spain and Portugual are spectacular examples of country 394 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,879 Speaker 1: wide blackout and you know, make headlines around the world. 395 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:37,040 Speaker 1: But there's an OECD ranking of countries that suffer outages 396 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: and the number of hours that are lost because of blackouts. 397 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:45,359 Speaker 1: The US ranks five ranks higher than Spain when it 398 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: comes to just reliability of power. But let's take the 399 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 1: last question or time is running out. What do you 400 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: think is the kind of lasting damage that will come 401 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: from this Trump administration we've had. This is the second term, 402 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 1: and if there is a more climate positive president at 403 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 1: some point, what can be undone well. 404 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 2: I think the biggest damage is to slow down in 405 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:13,679 Speaker 2: the import of talent from all parts of the world. 406 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:19,119 Speaker 2: That's immigration that reduces our ability to have the kinds 407 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 2: of breakthroughs that make the economics possible, that will give 408 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 2: us the technologies that can solve climate and economic growth together. 409 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,600 Speaker 2: Thank you enough, Thank you, Thank you everybody. 410 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 1: And thank you for listening to zero. And now for 411 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 1: the sound of the week. If you haven't guessed already, 412 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 1: that is the sound of a mosquito. Around the world, 413 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: mosquito bond illnesses are becoming more prevalent as temperatures rise. 414 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,639 Speaker 1: In Singapore, scientists are releasing lap bread mosquitoes into the 415 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:10,280 Speaker 1: wild to help combat the spread of Dengi fever. Read 416 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 1: more about the project than others like it on Bloomberg 417 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,679 Speaker 1: dot com. If you like this episode, please take a 418 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 1: moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts 419 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: and Spotify. Share this episode with a friend or with 420 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,640 Speaker 1: someone who's too scared of failure. This episode was produced 421 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 1: by Oscar boyd Our. Theme music is composed by Wondering 422 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 1: Special thanks to Brian Kahan, Michelle ma Eleanor Harrison Dungate, 423 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 1: Jessica beck Shawan, Wagner, Mech Sabo Abbi Danzig and Crystal 424 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 1: concre ras I am Akshatrati back soon