1 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites Podcast. I am Shad Milman of 2 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: the Action Network. It is Wednesday, which means my favorite guests. 3 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 1: Not to denigrate black Jack Fletcher, who joins me on Friday, 4 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: or Jeff Schwartz and Paula Duca who joined me on Monday, 5 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: but I think we all know that Wednesdays are the 6 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: anchor day of the Favorite podcast, and that is because 7 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: we bring in Mr Bob Scoochy from New Orleans and 8 00:00:41,640 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: all the boyd gaming books in the state of Nevada. 9 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: Oh boy, Chad, how are you? You cannot live up 10 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: to that music? It Actually, I feel like it got 11 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,559 Speaker 1: bigger this week. It did. It's getting more. It's getting louder. 12 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: It's getting louder and more dramatic. I feel like it's 13 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: appropriate for the day. You know why, because we have 14 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 1: something going on in the NFL that never happens and 15 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: something that I think could help the NFL quite a 16 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: bit become more popular because you know, it's not really 17 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 1: a big deal. Um trades. Yeah, Amari Cooper traded from 18 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: the Oakland Raiders to the Dallas Cowboys. Eli Apple just 19 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: breaking from Adam Schefter traded from the New York Giants 20 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: to the New Orleans Saints. Eli Apple was not loved 21 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 1: in the New York Giants locker room traded. Are you there, 22 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: I'm here. That's big. I know that the Saints are 23 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: going to get real aggressive before the deadline, and we 24 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: I think we talked a little bit about them before 25 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: we came on the air. So interesting team. You and 26 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: I may have some difference of opinions on them, but uh, 27 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: it's why do you say? Why do you say you 28 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: know they're going to get aggressive? What do you what 29 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: do you like tapped in? You've got a source, We 30 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: got sources? Yeah, exactly, what do you know? What do 31 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: you know? No, they're making they're making plays for certain 32 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: personnel that are unhappy with their current teams. And uh, 33 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,399 Speaker 1: and they're one of the you know from just from 34 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 1: what we've heard, them and the Eagles are both trying 35 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 1: to get some of the same personnel. Dude, Seriously, you 36 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: are being so kg right now. It's like either you 37 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: either are you connected like the league in some way, 38 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: or are you like reciting what you've read on the 39 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: Twitter combination just some context that we have. Oh my god, 40 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: you are such a dick. I can't what is going on? Here? 41 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: Are you not only like bookmaker to the world, but 42 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 1: you're also like Adam Schefter's chief source. And when he 43 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: needs to break a story, he's like, I can't confirm 44 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 1: this until I call Scooch exactly. Yeah, no, I'm not. 45 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna tell you. Do you 46 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: know you watch? No, I don't. I do know stuff. 47 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: But just by the way, I do know stuff. I 48 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: bet you're just not about this. I know stuff. Your 49 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 1: face no stuff. Oh, here we go, here's another one 50 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: you no. No, by the way, my my introduction, it's 51 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: more than just the sports books in the state of Nevada. 52 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: We gotta we gotta correct you now because that now 53 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: that we're kind of movie moving into new states and 54 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: new jurisdictions, it's uh, all the BOYD gaming books around 55 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: the country, around the country. You you, slowly but surely 56 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: are becoming bookmaker to the country. Slowly, we're trying to 57 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 1: get there. If you're not bookmaker to the world by 58 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: the time we're done with this podcast, then you and 59 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: I have both done something wrong. Exactly. So last week 60 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: we talked about how my kids just like to trash 61 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,720 Speaker 1: talk me when I'm doing anything, um, even if I'm 62 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,600 Speaker 1: trying to do something nice for them. Let me tell 63 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: you this, jem. So, this past weekend, my wife and 64 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 1: I went away to Park City, Utah with friends from 65 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: high school and other wives. So I posted, uh, you know, 66 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: an Instagram story. I go on Instagram, I post a 67 00:04:53,839 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 1: story and uh, my younger son direct messages on Instagram 68 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: and it says with one of the posts, it says, 69 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 1: I feel bad for your imagination, Jeezy, I wrote him back. 70 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: I wrote him back, I go, I feel bad for 71 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 1: your reality that. I wrote back, I feel bad for 72 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: your reality burn. Yeah, that wasn't a great comeback. I 73 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: think it wasn't. And he wrote back to me, he 74 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: knows that my best friend's name is Matt, and he 75 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: spent a lot of time with Matt. And uh, he 76 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 1: wrote back to me, he goes, how long did it 77 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:45,799 Speaker 1: take you and Matt to think of that one? He's quick, 78 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 1: he's eleven, he's got that Chad Millman, sharp wit? Doesn't 79 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: he raising an asshole? I guess is that what you're 80 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: saying about me? I was trying to be delicate about it, 81 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: sharp Wit. Yeah, excuse last week was not pretty for me. 82 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: It wasn't pretty for us. Either tell me about what 83 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:12,039 Speaker 1: you Oh, these scores were horrendous. If it wasn't for 84 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 1: the Browns uh losing by only three instead of more, 85 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: it would have been one of the worst days in 86 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: many years. UM. All the favorites that we did not need, 87 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,840 Speaker 1: mostly in Parley's. It was the general public. It wasn't 88 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: necessarily the professional betters that that roughed us up. I 89 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: mean it started Thursday with the Broncos and we talked 90 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: about them, even though the line moved after our podcast. Uh, 91 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: you know, I was I had gone to three on 92 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: the Broncos, I think right during the podcast because of 93 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: just all the public money on on Denver and it 94 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: just looked too short. And then the wise guys came 95 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: in on Arizona. But that that kind of started the 96 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 1: whole avalanche of things to come. New England and UH 97 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: short road favorites against the Bears was a horrible, horrible 98 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: game for US. UH. Indianapolis against Buffalo was bad, Detroit 99 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:05,559 Speaker 1: Miami was bad. All the favorites, Minnesota against the Jets, 100 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 1: A lot of those home dogs that we said we're 101 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: covering throughout most of the season so far, I saw 102 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: a little bit of a correction as a lot of 103 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: the road favorites were covering. So uh uh, Like I said, 104 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: Tampa only winning by three and overtime was that was 105 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: huge for us because uh that extra half a point 106 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 1: that Tampa was laying would would have kind of been 107 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: a dagger. And then the night game, I mean, the 108 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: biggest game of the board was Kansas City and the Bengals, 109 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: and we were never really in that game with the Bengals, 110 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: so that just kind of capped things off. Uh So, 111 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: so worst weekend by far of the year could have 112 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: been a lot worse. And boy, that Monday night game, 113 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: we needed the Giants for our lungs. And you talk 114 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: about uh semi meaningless played to the casual observer, a 115 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 1: touchdown and a two point conversion at the end of 116 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: the game two uh to move the game from a 117 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: five point spread to three point victor margin of victory. 118 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: That was the difference of a lot of money around town. 119 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: How much? What did the game close at? Uh? Well, 120 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,119 Speaker 1: it had opened as high as five and a half 121 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,679 Speaker 1: and six, and then the wise guys drove this line 122 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: down early in the week, the three and a half 123 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 1: at one point, and but then the public just drove 124 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: Atlanta right back up to four and a half and 125 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: five by game time. That's why five would have been 126 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:33,959 Speaker 1: the absolute worst number, uh two, because we would have 127 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: gotten middled on so many levels. And uh yeah, yeah 128 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: it was. It was teetering. I just kind of had 129 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: to cover my eyes watching that last play. It's almost 130 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 1: like we're a literary podcast. How many how many betting 131 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: podcasts can slip in a euphemism alert? Maybe we should 132 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: get to Nuther for that. Can we get like does 133 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: like uh Henry Wadsworth longfellow, that's not very literally. I've 134 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 1: never heard of porn like that for a longfellow. Yeah, 135 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: that feels more spitting chicklets than like, you know, the favorites. 136 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: We need some but some broms, maybe some mozart, you know, 137 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 1: something like that. Every time. Again, now we're just pressing buttons, 138 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: not actually not actually thinking about how to creatively incorporate 139 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 1: something thoughtful and beautiful, right, I'm just saying, hey, um, well, listen, 140 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 1: you should know that I bet the Cardinals on the 141 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:58,439 Speaker 1: money line that didn't go well. I bet the Redskins 142 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: got lucky on that one. I bet the Ravens boy 143 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: Justin Tucker middled me, if you know what I'm saying, 144 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: um euphemism, the middle fingered me, and uh, you know, 145 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: I bet the Bears plus four. And boy, I'll tell 146 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: you know. I was with all these Chicago guys all weekend. 147 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: I sound like a fucking Putts because they were asking 148 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: me about the Bears and we're talking about betting, and 149 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:27,439 Speaker 1: I'm talking about recency bias and how I thought the 150 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: spread in this game was too high. But you don't 151 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 1: make money betting against Bill Belichick. But I had to 152 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: do it because the line moved from like three to 153 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: four and Gronk was out and blah blah blah. And boy, 154 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,680 Speaker 1: if I hadn't have said to some fun somebody's a 155 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: bunch of guys who went to Michigan, like let's take 156 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:46,719 Speaker 1: the under twenty in the first half and let's take 157 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: under forty one, I would have looked even dumber. Yeah, 158 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: just sometimes things don't pan out. I mean, I I act. 159 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: I hate it when the key player is out on 160 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:03,440 Speaker 1: a team that they're already betting and we have to 161 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: move the line downwards. It's just the scariest thing. And 162 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,839 Speaker 1: when that line went down to as low as one 163 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: and a half. I'm just like, we can't we we 164 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: just gotta I went up to back to two and 165 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: a half when I think everyone in town was at one. 166 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 1: Not that it saved us a whole lot. That I 167 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: can tell my my bosses. You know, we saved some 168 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 1: money there, saved a little bit, but it didn't it 169 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: didn't matter. I that's the worst when you give them 170 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: a reason to lay an even better number. Given me 171 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:41,439 Speaker 1: a million reasons, you're like my lady Gaga thrown in 172 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 1: all kinds of references. Now, aren't you a million reads? 173 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: All right? Should we do this thing to the main event? Yeah? 174 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: Was there a story this weekend that Deshaun Watson could 175 00:11:55,400 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: not fly to Jacksonville because his lungs were so injured. 176 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: Doctors were afraid of what the air pressure would do, 177 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: and yet they drove him to Jacksonville to play, and 178 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 1: he was able to play in a game in which 179 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: men who are of the finest athletes in the world 180 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: at six pounds can chase him and potentially fall on him. 181 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 1: What do you think of that he did that and 182 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 1: then he dominated? That's incredible. I mean, is it just 183 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: that that Jacksonville's that bad? What happened there right. I'll 184 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: tell you who's feeling pretty good. I'll tell you who's 185 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:36,959 Speaker 1: feeling pretty good. Someone who's got a literary podcast and 186 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: has a Houston Texans super Bowl ticket at eighteen to one. 187 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: Who oh, coming around? Yeah, not bad, long fellow, long season. 188 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying. It's a long It's gonna 189 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 1: be a long, long season. It's already it's already into 190 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: that mode where who it's starting starting to wear me down? 191 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: It's rough. Dolphins of Texas, Texas seven and a half. 192 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: I mean, there's not gonna this is probably the worst 193 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 1: Thursday night matchup so far this season. Um. I mean 194 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: people will still bet it because it's the high profile 195 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:17,680 Speaker 1: only game of the night. Um, but not a whole 196 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: lot of reasons to to bet the Dolphins. I think 197 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: you said it last week when uh Dolphins beat the Bears, 198 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: that was kind of their high water mark and uh 199 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 1: not not not going to equal that performance against some 200 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: of these other teams, and didn't look so good against 201 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 1: the Lions. Uh, there are seven and a half point 202 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: underdog against the Texans. We're gonna see a lot of 203 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 1: Texans money, not a whole lot of sharp money on 204 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: the Dolphins yet. But I think most of these games, 205 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 1: as we get into a lot of them, these are 206 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: some of the biggest point spreads, uh, that we've seen 207 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 1: so far in the NFL this season for just one 208 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 1: week with so many, you know, more than a touchdown favorites, 209 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: and uh, I think we're we're especially coming off a 210 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 1: week we're a lot of the favorites covered. We're going 211 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 1: to be in that kind of mode where we want 212 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: to set the lines as high as possible to see 213 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 1: where the professionals take take it back, how high can 214 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,559 Speaker 1: we go on some of these favorites before they get 215 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: involved and take the underdog. So we're kind of creeping 216 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 1: up on a lot of these lines and you'll see 217 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 1: them get get bigger and bigger throughout late in the week. 218 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 1: So if you if you want to bet some of 219 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 1: these underdogs, you want to take them late. That's good 220 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: to know. The late move is the correct move. Somebody 221 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: wise once said that it's true. So you think seven 222 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 1: and a half might be the beginning of the move 223 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: on this not the end. Yeah, because you know the 224 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: sharp guys are gonna they're gonna wait is they're gonna 225 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 1: They're like they're gonna wait. They're gonna wait till the 226 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 1: end of the week. All right, Well, this game's Thursday night, 227 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: so they don't have that much longer. Um, it's hard, 228 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 1: I think. I like the Texans. It's tough to lay 229 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: that many points. It really is, though, But I just 230 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: think goes against all your principles. It does. But you know, yeah, yeah, 231 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 1: all right, we don't have an opinion yet. We can't. 232 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 1: We can't formulate an opinion. Eagles at Jaguars? Is this 233 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: game being played in London? Another one in London? Yeah, 234 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: we start for this one. If the lovely and talented 235 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: Georgina were on this podcast, I know you don't know 236 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 1: who that is because you don't listen to the podcast 237 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 1: at all. But Georgina, who, of course uh is reading 238 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: the lines for me and Blackjack on our Friday podcast, 239 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 1: she would have reason to say jag yours because she 240 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 1: is British and this game is being played in London. Ah. 241 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: I like that. Jaguars part of the literary concept and classy. 242 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: Do we have any Shakespeare theme music? I'd be impressive 243 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: they pull out some of these chicks sucking yah. Whose 244 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 1: named Matt who just keeps you know two hipsters with 245 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 1: beards like half beards, looking at each other like, do 246 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 1: we have any do we have any Shakespeare music? I 247 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 1: don't know, do we They're like, here's Shakespeare. I don't know, 248 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: there's Shakespeare. Guy just at their god who's he played for? Yeah, 249 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: that's so funny, all right. The Eagles are favored by 250 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 1: three and a half. Um, boy, the wheels are falling 251 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: off this Jaguars team. Blake Bortles is going to start, 252 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 1: but he's on a short leash. The Eagles gave up 253 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 1: a seventeen point lead in the fourth quarter. They have 254 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: not looked right all year. They made the Panthers, who 255 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: I am not a believer in, look really good. How 256 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 1: do you It's like, this is basically it's a neutral 257 00:16:56,240 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 1: field games. You're saying the Eagles are three points better. Um, 258 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't even know how to 259 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 1: read this game right now. Well, the thing about the 260 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:08,679 Speaker 1: Eagles is there essentially they're the same Super Bowl team 261 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: that that's that's that's on the field, and at some 262 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 1: point you expect them to kind of break out into 263 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 1: the form that that we saw them last year, and 264 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: it's just a matter of when we saw it looked 265 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 1: like a little bit in the first half against the Panthers, 266 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: but like you said, they kind of fell apart in 267 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 1: the second half. So if you're looking at two teams 268 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 1: on who you had to bet in this one, I 269 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: think more people would be just so much more comfortable 270 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: bet in the Eagles and laying three three and a 271 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 1: half points in this one, because there is absolutely no 272 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 1: reason to to bet Jacksonville at this point. They're looking 273 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 1: worse and worse each week, uh, starting with that game 274 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: against Kansas City, and just get progressively getting worse each week. 275 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: Nothing to get excited about, boardles. I mean, they pulled 276 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: them so they don't even have a they don't even 277 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:59,400 Speaker 1: have a good, top tier starting quarterback anymore. So, UM, 278 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna be real aggressive moving this line. Um, 279 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: we were at three minus twenty. Um, we're gonna go 280 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 1: to three and a half right now, right now. I'm 281 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:21,639 Speaker 1: fairly certain that's our long fellow music, that's it. So 282 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:26,640 Speaker 1: here's the question for you. There's a report someone wrote 283 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 1: a story today that the um Jaguars should trade for 284 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 1: Eli Manning. Give me odds on Eli Manning being traded 285 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 1: at all this year. He's not gonna be traded. There's 286 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: no way. Yeah, it's off the board favorite to not 287 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:54,679 Speaker 1: be traded. It's definitely bad with the Giants. Hey, they 288 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 1: got the cover Monday night. It's all the match, not 289 00:18:58,240 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 1: whether you win or lose, it's whether you cover this 290 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: bread so true. By the skin of there by the 291 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:04,680 Speaker 1: by the face mask of their helmets. They got the cover. 292 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 1: Um yeah, I love this game. This next game, I 293 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 1: freaking love Are you ready? Yeah, Broncos at Chiefs. I know, 294 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: I so know what side I'm taking here. You almost 295 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 1: have to take the Broncos to you have to have to, yes, Um, 296 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: I mean the we're minus ten minus ten yeah, perfect negative. 297 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 1: So so the Broncos have the longer week to prepare, 298 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: you know, the playing on the Thursday night game last week, 299 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 1: so they got a little extra Chiefs have. It's a 300 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 1: little bit somewhat of a shorter week after the big 301 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 1: Sunday night when, uh, you can't say that you got 302 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 1: ripped on the Twitter were saying that the Pats were 303 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 1: coming off a shorter week when they played on a 304 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,879 Speaker 1: Saturday night game, Like shorter week by what four hours? 305 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 1: By four can can't say? You can't say it can't 306 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 1: be bookmaker to Nevada, you know, and maybe other states. 307 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 1: And can I say that the Broncos have a longer 308 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:26,119 Speaker 1: time to prepare? Yes? Is that allowable? Yes? Give you that? 309 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: All right? So so I so I I welcome the 310 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 1: Chiefs money in this one. We'll probably get pummeled, but uh, 311 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: ten points is just a lot of points for I mean, 312 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,239 Speaker 1: as great as they as they've been playing and and 313 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 1: racking up the points. Um, it's just too I mean, 314 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 1: double digit underdogs you almost have to take. I mean 315 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 1: they're on the road, but you still have to take 316 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:51,360 Speaker 1: the Broncos. I feel like that's going to be good 317 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 1: for one of the highlights we put out into social media. 318 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:58,880 Speaker 1: I welcome the Chief's money. You almost have to take 319 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: the double digit here, all right. So let's say I 320 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: was too allegedly bet while we are recording this podcast. 321 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 1: Do you think I should wait? Do you think this 322 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: let is going to go up? No? I think this 323 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 1: will come down because the sharp guys will take it. 324 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 1: I mean they're gonna they're gonna take this in a 325 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 1: couple of other games that we are going to get 326 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,879 Speaker 1: to that I think there's a lot of value on 327 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 1: the underdogs here. We tried to make this. I mean ten, 328 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: ten is a pretty solid number, um, and it's not 329 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 1: one you you really want to kind of get off 330 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 1: of going from nine and a half to ten and 331 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 1: a half. Of we've already seen a couple of games 332 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:44,159 Speaker 1: full ten this year. Um, so I think we're I 333 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,160 Speaker 1: think we're in good shape with just staying at ten. 334 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: But I think there's more of a chance of the 335 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: wise guys taking the ten than laying it. The wise 336 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: guys never lay ten, So it's just a matter of 337 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 1: whether the public will drive this back up, but more 338 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 1: chance of it coming down. What do you think of 339 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: the total fifty? I probably bet every Kansas City game over. 340 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 1: I mean we got we got lucky last uh the 341 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: last game that just should have went over but stayed 342 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: under by a little bit. And uh, but but yeah, 343 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: I'd bet all of them over. There's just their explosive 344 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 1: offense and and the defense lets up some points, so 345 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 1: we're gonna be on the high side there too. We're 346 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: already at fifty six. I know some places are fifty five, 347 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 1: fifty four and a half even, but uh, and then 348 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: we know which way the public bets on them too, 349 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: so we gotta be on the high side. Scooch. We're 350 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 1: gonna get back to the picks in a second, but 351 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: first we have to tell you about robin Hood. Robin 352 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,639 Speaker 1: Hood is an investing app that lets you buy and 353 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 1: sell stocks, et fs, options, and cryptos, all commissioned free. 354 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 1: They strive to make financial services work for everyone, not 355 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: just the wealthy. This is a non intimidating way for 356 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,160 Speaker 1: stock marketing commers to invest for the first time with 357 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 1: true confidence. It's simple and intuitive, clear design with data 358 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 1: presented in an easy to digest way. Scooch, did I 359 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 1: mention that it's cost free no commissions. Other brokerages charge 360 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 1: up to ten dollars for every trade, but robin Hood 361 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:23,360 Speaker 1: doesn't charge commission fees. Trade stocks and keep all of 362 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 1: your profits. Plus you can learn by doing learn how 363 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 1: to invest as you build your portfolio, discover new stocks 364 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: and track favorite companies with personalized news feeds. Get custom 365 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,720 Speaker 1: notifications for price movements so you never miss the right 366 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: moment to in vest. Robin Hood is giving listeners a 367 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 1: free stock like Apple, Ford or Sprint to help build 368 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: your portfolio. Sign up at favorites dot robin hood dot com. 369 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 1: That's Favorites dot robin hood Dot Calm Scooch, I know 370 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 1: you went in on this. Let's get back to the picks. 371 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 1: The next game is interesting to me, the Browns and 372 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:06,440 Speaker 1: the Steelers. The Steelers are eight point favorites. Baker Mayfield 373 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 1: keeps games close. Absolutely. I think you're gonna get Baker 374 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 1: burned in this one. Yeah, I mean the Steelers have been, 375 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: uh playing a lot better since the beginning of the year. 376 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 1: And uh, but the Browns do. I mean they kept 377 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 1: they kept it close last week, Like I said, they 378 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 1: saved us by that that half a point. But they 379 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 1: do keep a lot of the games close. They played 380 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,320 Speaker 1: the Saints real good this year, and I think we're 381 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 1: We've talked about them how good I think the Saints are, 382 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 1: and and the Browns can hang tough with some of 383 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 1: the best teams in the NFL. So you know, their 384 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 1: record doesn't reflect it. But a team with a young 385 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 1: quarterback a lot of times they'll um take some time 386 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 1: to just keep slowly getting better and better and then 387 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,160 Speaker 1: learn how to close out those close games and come 388 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,159 Speaker 1: out on the winning side instead of always been on 389 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 1: the losing side. Uh, the right side is the winning side, 390 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 1: So so on this one, I mean seven and a 391 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 1: half with the points, the right side is always the 392 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 1: winning side. Just skip over that. I guess. Yeah, like 393 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 1: this like eight points too much? Too much, Scooch, It 394 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,119 Speaker 1: is too much. It's it's all I mean, this is 395 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 1: But remember they played to a tie that opening week. 396 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 1: The Browns have been blown out in one game this year, right, 397 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 1: the Browns have played four overtime games. They were blown 398 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 1: out by the Chargers. Chargers team that yours truly believed 399 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 1: was going to blow out the Browns even though they 400 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 1: were on the road. Just felt it in my bones. Situationally, 401 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 1: it was the right way to go. I remember that. Yeah, yeah, 402 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 1: I don't have that feeling this weekend with this Dealers. 403 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,760 Speaker 1: I mean, if you had to bet, I mean, any 404 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: anyone that's been betting, if you had to pick a side, 405 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: you have to take the Browns plus seven and a 406 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 1: half in this one. I mean, the ticket count is 407 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,399 Speaker 1: probably five to one Steelers to Browns. And then coming 408 00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 1: off of a week where a lot of the favorites covered, 409 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 1: I know a lot of these guys are gonna be 410 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: rolling over their tickets on a lot of these big favorites, 411 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 1: but this is one of the ones I feel fairly 412 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 1: good about you feel pretty good about the Browns being 413 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 1: dogs and needing money and needing the Browns to win. Yeah, okay, yep, 414 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 1: and that can be that. Ye And I think we're 415 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,159 Speaker 1: actually and I think we're actually pretty low in comparison 416 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: to a lot of places around the country on this 417 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 1: point spread. I think seven and a half is probably 418 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,159 Speaker 1: the lowest you'll see out there. I know there's some 419 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,399 Speaker 1: eights eight and a halfs, So we do have somewhat 420 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 1: of an opinion on this one. I'm not going to 421 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 1: be that game. It's gonna pass, huh, I think so. Yep, thanks, 422 00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 1: So maybe I'll come back to it. Bucks at uh 423 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 1: Bengals Bengals and four and a half way favorites. This 424 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 1: is this is Oh my god, this is the crantastic 425 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:14,880 Speaker 1: Corner TV game. It'll be a low volume game. Nobody's 426 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 1: going to bet it because nobody can name ten players 427 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,879 Speaker 1: on combined on these teams, you don't know what you're getting. 428 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,280 Speaker 1: The Bengals get blown out on national TV, the Box 429 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: need a miracle to beat the Browns, and overtime they 430 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 1: give up big leads. Funck man. Yeah, anybody bet this game? Yeah? 431 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 1: Actually they did, and I'm kind of kicking myself because, 432 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 1: uh we we put up six and I just as 433 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 1: I was getting ready to move it to five and 434 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 1: a half, somebody bet it. They didn't bet it for MutS. 435 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,120 Speaker 1: They better for the only bet it for ten thousand. 436 00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,679 Speaker 1: But I just felt he beat me by a couple 437 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 1: of seconds. I'm going through the games and I'm just 438 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 1: I said this too much. You have to take the 439 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 1: buccaneers here. So I lowered it to five and a 440 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,359 Speaker 1: half and he beat me to it, and uh, and 441 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 1: then I just went straight to four and a half. 442 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 1: Uh off of no money, Well I shouldn't say no money, 443 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 1: probably another five thousand. So so really it took ten 444 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 1: thousand to move it a point and a half. But uh, 445 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,880 Speaker 1: I just feel like the public is not gonna really 446 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,200 Speaker 1: they're not gonna come in on this game very much. 447 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 1: So it's going to be strictly a wise guy game. 448 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,400 Speaker 1: And uh, I just don't have a good feel about it. 449 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:42,040 Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna move it quick. You took ten 450 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 1: thousand dollars on this game. One bet ten dollars, No, 451 00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 1: it was one bet five thousand, and then uh, a 452 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 1: couple of couple of three and two thousand dollar breads 453 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,040 Speaker 1: and they were all on which side again, all in 454 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. But I'm just mad because I wanted to 455 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 1: I was almost there. But so if it's a four 456 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 1: and a half, should I be betting the Bucks right now? 457 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 1: Is that what the wise guys are telling me? Or 458 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 1: they were betting the five they were they bet plus 459 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,680 Speaker 1: six and they bet plus five and a half. And 460 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 1: I can see this game going down to four. So 461 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 1: if you're gonna, if you're gonna, I'm not doing it. 462 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 1: If you want I don't want it. I don't want it. Yeah, 463 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 1: I don't want any part of the Bengals. I mean, 464 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 1: when when a team is laying six points, you look 465 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 1: at some of the rest of the compare some of 466 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 1: the rest of the teams on the board that are 467 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 1: laying more than six points. You know, the Pittsburgh Steelers, 468 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,959 Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs, the Rams. I mean, those are 469 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 1: the type of teams that lay six and seven points, 470 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 1: not the Bengals, right, And I don't care. I don't 471 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,440 Speaker 1: care who they're playing. You either have to have, uh 472 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,479 Speaker 1: just a you know, a real good defense or you know, 473 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 1: just an offense that can light up the board to 474 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:04,360 Speaker 1: be laying those kind of points consistently and uh, and 475 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 1: the Bengals aren't that team. I was high on them 476 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 1: earlier in the year. After a couple of weeks, I 477 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 1: soured on them very quickly. Me too. It's such an 478 00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 1: interesting thing, and I think I talked about this in 479 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: the podcast on Monday. You if you think about betting, 480 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 1: you think about football through the lens of betting enough, 481 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 1: you get a feel for like when there's value on 482 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,479 Speaker 1: a team. And I had this feeling about both the 483 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 1: Colts and the Bengals earlier in the year. I had 484 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: this feeling about the Cardinals for a few weeks. I 485 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 1: had this feeling about the Redskins for the past few weeks, 486 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 1: Like you can see when there are teams that, through 487 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,160 Speaker 1: a variety of stats, are just the right teams to 488 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,360 Speaker 1: be on, and and then you can feel it end, 489 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,239 Speaker 1: you know what I mean. And I felt it end 490 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:56,880 Speaker 1: with the Cardinals in stunning lee fashion. Um. Unfortunately a 491 00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 1: little one bet too late. But I did feel it 492 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,600 Speaker 1: with the calls, and I did feel it with the Bengals, 493 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 1: and I feel it with the Redskins too. We're gonna 494 00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 1: get to that game, um. Ravens at panthers though Panthers 495 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 1: plus one. Let me tell you right now, this game 496 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 1: is testing everything I believe in, because I think there 497 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 1: are significant market forces impacting this point spread. But it's 498 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 1: put it in a position where I like almost it's 499 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,720 Speaker 1: challenging my my my two principal beliefs, right, is challenging 500 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 1: my home dog short home dog belief, and it's challenging 501 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 1: my recency bias public perception belief. So the immovable force 502 00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: and the uh, well, how does that go? The object? 503 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 1: I don't know something. It's it's the something has to give. 504 00:31:56,440 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 1: Something's got to give. I don't know someone. So which 505 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,520 Speaker 1: you can one of the hipster MAT's Google like, what 506 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 1: is that phrase? A movable removable force versus the solid object? 507 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 1: What is it? No, that's not unstoppable meets a movable No, 508 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 1: that's not what it is. We got eight fucking computers open. 509 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:23,960 Speaker 1: Can someone just look it up? A movable object meets 510 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:29,040 Speaker 1: unstoppable force? Is that what you said? Yeah? That sounds good. 511 00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:34,240 Speaker 1: It's a longfellow cord. I'm giving Matt h is now 512 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 1: Matt number one. He wins, Oh this is nice. Oh 513 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 1: we got longfellow. That's beautiful. You know Ze Wagner. I 514 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 1: think it was Acapello number one strings, one of my favorites. 515 00:32:57,520 --> 00:32:59,479 Speaker 1: My son and I, my older son and I listened to, 516 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,240 Speaker 1: uh the Symphony channel and sirious when I drive into 517 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:08,760 Speaker 1: school in the morning. Nice classie. I'm partial to Mozart's 518 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 1: Piano Concerto number one. That's a pretty good one. Yeah, 519 00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:21,239 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie to you. Yeah. So, um, this 520 00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 1: is a tough game. Immovable uh forest meets unstoppable object 521 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 1: or something like that. So what do I do? What 522 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,720 Speaker 1: do I do? It's the Ravens minus one. I'm telling 523 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 1: you right now what I want to do. Well, you 524 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 1: you're not high on the Panthers, you probably want to 525 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 1: I want to bet the Ravens. Yeah, I kind of 526 00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 1: sensed it, but not. I mean, there's really no value 527 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,240 Speaker 1: in the point spread here. It's just basically a pick 528 00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 1: um game. Um, we're saying that the Ravens are obviously 529 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,240 Speaker 1: a better team, uh and and and the Panthers just 530 00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,760 Speaker 1: a home field that uh it's worth three three and 531 00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 1: a half points, but the ticket counts almost dead even so, 532 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 1: I think the numbers probably not going to move so much. 533 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 1: The public is not going to drive this one way 534 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 1: or another. We saw a lot of games last week 535 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,880 Speaker 1: right in this range, you know, one one and a half. Um, 536 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 1: even the Ravens Saints last week was it was another 537 00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,920 Speaker 1: one of those that kept kind of going back and 538 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 1: forth one one way one the other. The Redskins and 539 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 1: the Cowboys was another one that opened up one side 540 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,480 Speaker 1: of one point favorite, closed the Cowboys a one and 541 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,560 Speaker 1: a half point favorite. Um, but I don't see the 542 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:34,400 Speaker 1: public really loving either side in this one. Uh. Just 543 00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,360 Speaker 1: figures to be two teams relying more on their defenses 544 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 1: than their offenses, and that's usually not the kind of 545 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,560 Speaker 1: game that draws a whole lot of public attention. I mean, look, 546 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:48,520 Speaker 1: this game probably would have been Ravens potentially minus three 547 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,319 Speaker 1: if they had beaten the Saints. Um. But they lose 548 00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:56,840 Speaker 1: to the Saints. The Panthers come back and studying fashion 549 00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,000 Speaker 1: against the Eagles, who still get too much credit from 550 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 1: the Cowboys, and so I think bookmakers essentially downgraded this 551 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,239 Speaker 1: game from about minus three to minus one? Am I wrong? 552 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:13,680 Speaker 1: That's about right? And so so if I look at 553 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 1: it that way, I'm kind of getting two points of 554 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:23,399 Speaker 1: value on the Ravens. Yeah, it's an interesting perspective. I mean, 555 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:28,080 Speaker 1: the Panthers aren't getting much credit for the comeback when uh, 556 00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:32,600 Speaker 1: whereas the Ravens are getting somewhat downgraded. So what do what? 557 00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:34,280 Speaker 1: So what do you think should I bet the Ravens. 558 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:39,400 Speaker 1: I'd stay away. I don't love this game, yeah, but 559 00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:44,280 Speaker 1: I'm getting two points of value according to Millman logic. Yeah, 560 00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:46,959 Speaker 1: coming off of a tough loss too. I like your 561 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,160 Speaker 1: angle last week with the forty Niners kind of laying 562 00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,480 Speaker 1: it all out on the field and then having to 563 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:54,719 Speaker 1: come back and play the Rams, and and that one 564 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,200 Speaker 1: panned out just the way you predicted, where just morale wise, 565 00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 1: the team just couldn't rebound. So it might be a 566 00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 1: little angle. Huh. I didn't bet that one. Yeah, Well, 567 00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,520 Speaker 1: it's hard to bet like a huge home dog. It's 568 00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 1: like they were they like the Rams were laying huge 569 00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:20,640 Speaker 1: numbers in San Francisco. Like, there's no way I could 570 00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,360 Speaker 1: bet the Rams. Yeah. It goes against all the principles 571 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 1: of sports betting. M double digits on the road, you 572 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:32,640 Speaker 1: can't do it. Uh. I am so torn on this game. 573 00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:33,920 Speaker 1: I might have to come back to it. I might 574 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:38,840 Speaker 1: have to allegedly bet it. Uh, Redskins at Giants, Redskins 575 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,200 Speaker 1: minus one, Giants plus one? Is that what you're at? 576 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:48,120 Speaker 1: Redskins minus one? Right? I would go, all right, yeah, 577 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:52,840 Speaker 1: you don't know. You go, well, it's another game, just 578 00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,120 Speaker 1: like we It's almost identical to uh some of the 579 00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:58,879 Speaker 1: other games that we talked about the Redskins Cowboys last week, 580 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,239 Speaker 1: UH one point favorite where the better team is on 581 00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,399 Speaker 1: the road but just not laying quite a field goal. 582 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:09,520 Speaker 1: I would probably favor the Redskins in this one. I 583 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,759 Speaker 1: know the public is going to be largely on the Redskins. 584 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,480 Speaker 1: We haven't had this game up on the board very 585 00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:19,759 Speaker 1: long because we UH waited for the Giants game Monday night, 586 00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,240 Speaker 1: so there hasn't been a whole lot of betting activity yet. 587 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 1: But we know it's going to come in probably largely 588 00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:30,359 Speaker 1: on the Redskins. Uh, just in public money and whether 589 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,239 Speaker 1: or not the sharp guys want to get involved with 590 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:36,560 Speaker 1: the Giants at home. UH. I don't see a whole 591 00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 1: a whole lot of sharp guy money coming in on 592 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,400 Speaker 1: this game. I'll tell you one sharp guy is going 593 00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:42,719 Speaker 1: to come in in this game. As soon as this 594 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:46,840 Speaker 1: line gets a little bit higher. You like the Giants. 595 00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 1: I hate to say it, Situationally, I like the Giants. 596 00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:55,640 Speaker 1: It's similar to me with the Ravens, right Like, Look, 597 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,640 Speaker 1: I've been betting the Redskins for the past couple of 598 00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:01,680 Speaker 1: weeks and I've seen them sort of in their ascent, 599 00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:06,359 Speaker 1: and now they've got it right, Like they're gonna get 600 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,640 Speaker 1: the public money, road favorites. They'll probably close it to 601 00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:12,439 Speaker 1: maybe close to and a half. A lot of money 602 00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:14,239 Speaker 1: is going to come in on them. They just beat 603 00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,960 Speaker 1: the Cowboys in a high profile game. They had you know, 604 00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:21,839 Speaker 1: Tony Romo and Jim Nance like they were the game. Um, 605 00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,160 Speaker 1: and now they're in first place in the NFC East. 606 00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,560 Speaker 1: Like they got public on their side, and the Giants 607 00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:30,480 Speaker 1: will not have public on their side all year. So 608 00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:32,600 Speaker 1: to me, it's like very similar and sort of the 609 00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:36,279 Speaker 1: public perception recency biased conversation we just talked about with 610 00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,400 Speaker 1: the Ravens and Panthers, only it's a little bit flipped. Um. 611 00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,799 Speaker 1: Whereas I might be on the road favorite in the 612 00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,320 Speaker 1: Ravens game, I am very much in favor of the 613 00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:53,759 Speaker 1: underdog in this game. Yeah it does, it actually does. Yeah, Um, 614 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 1: I could understand the move. Um. The sharp guys were 615 00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:03,080 Speaker 1: on the Giants against the Alkins, and the Falcons are um, 616 00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,799 Speaker 1: you know, much better team I think than the Redskins. 617 00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:12,120 Speaker 1: Um so, so I could understand the play on the Giants. Um. 618 00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,080 Speaker 1: I mean there's probably a whole not a risk on 619 00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:17,000 Speaker 1: our end by moving it from pick to one to 620 00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:18,920 Speaker 1: one and a half. I mean, things just have to 621 00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:24,239 Speaker 1: fall exactly perfect to kill us there. But I see 622 00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,040 Speaker 1: the line going up though, and then so you're gonna 623 00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,040 Speaker 1: end up taking the Giants. I might go to one 624 00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:32,680 Speaker 1: and a half right now force you to allegedly bet. 625 00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,080 Speaker 1: But I gotta tell you, I think this game is 626 00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,719 Speaker 1: gonna go to two. So you're gonna wait till two. 627 00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:41,279 Speaker 1: You don't want one and a half, you want at 628 00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,120 Speaker 1: least two two and a half. I think it's I'm 629 00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:48,160 Speaker 1: gonna wait until kickoff. Okay, why why wouldn't I Do 630 00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:50,960 Speaker 1: you think anybody's gonna bet the Giants. It's not going 631 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:53,200 Speaker 1: to go the other way, right, I don't think it's 632 00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,480 Speaker 1: gonna go the other way. It's called savvy, scooch. You 633 00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,200 Speaker 1: want to get the best of the line. What I'm 634 00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:01,560 Speaker 1: saying you are, Yeah, you are savvy. I'll allegedly met 635 00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:07,480 Speaker 1: this game on Sunday, um Jets at my beloved Bears. 636 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:11,960 Speaker 1: Jets plus seven too big, too rich for my blood. Yeah, 637 00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,120 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't have a good feel on this one. 638 00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:17,839 Speaker 1: This is one of the ones where I thought we 639 00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:21,840 Speaker 1: were making it on the high side. Uh where a 640 00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:25,319 Speaker 1: Chicago minus seven right now? I could easily see this 641 00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:29,960 Speaker 1: thing going up seven and a half eight. Um, you 642 00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,080 Speaker 1: know even though that you know, I'm I'm watching the Jets. 643 00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,360 Speaker 1: I like their offense. They moved the ball against some 644 00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:37,279 Speaker 1: pretty good defenses. I just feel like they're going to 645 00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:41,279 Speaker 1: struggle in this one. And uh, I'm probably gonna be 646 00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:45,600 Speaker 1: real aggressive here too. And uh, we're already getting a 647 00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,720 Speaker 1: ton of money on the Bears, both sharp and public. 648 00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:54,000 Speaker 1: So that's not a good sign. Yeah, So so that 649 00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,200 Speaker 1: tells me that this one, this one's gonna go up. 650 00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,120 Speaker 1: I'm I'm actually gonna move this one to seven minus 651 00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:05,320 Speaker 1: twenty right now. Let you lay a dollar. We've never 652 00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 1: had a hat trick for line moves in this show. No, 653 00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:14,600 Speaker 1: that's a first. Huh, Seahawks, it lines, no love for 654 00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:18,680 Speaker 1: the go ahead, no say what you want to say, no, no, no, no, no, 655 00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,160 Speaker 1: just there's just not not many bets on the Jets, 656 00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:26,719 Speaker 1: No bets on Jets no Benny and the Jets no Seahawks. 657 00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:31,920 Speaker 1: It lines. This is boy, this Lions team defensive turning 658 00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:37,040 Speaker 1: it around. Carry On Johnson? Is that his name? Yep? 659 00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:42,120 Speaker 1: Carry on Johnson and fellow football. He's really good. Given 660 00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:47,440 Speaker 1: Matt Stafford some support Seahawks and basically Russell Wilson. I 661 00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:51,120 Speaker 1: think I think I'm just convincing myself right now to 662 00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,719 Speaker 1: bet the lines a very short home favorite. What do 663 00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,440 Speaker 1: you think of that? Yeah, we gotta I agree with you. 664 00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:01,040 Speaker 1: And we've already gotten some pretty sharp money on the 665 00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:05,680 Speaker 1: Lions as well. So uh, Seahawks still carry a little 666 00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:10,240 Speaker 1: appeal from the betting public, so uh. And the Lions, 667 00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:12,839 Speaker 1: even though some of the guys like yourself, you know, 668 00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,600 Speaker 1: you're sharp guys pick up on those little things that 669 00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:19,840 Speaker 1: the public hasn't jumped on them quite yet. Uh so um. 670 00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,320 Speaker 1: I think three is pretty solid, I think, but the 671 00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,520 Speaker 1: fact that the wise guys already laid three tells me 672 00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:27,960 Speaker 1: it's going to go up, but not necessarily just from 673 00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,319 Speaker 1: public money. I think the wise guys are on the 674 00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,200 Speaker 1: same side as you on this one. Do you think 675 00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:39,640 Speaker 1: I should bet this Ravens game? We're back to the 676 00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:44,719 Speaker 1: Ravens well, I'm allegedly going through the games in my 677 00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,319 Speaker 1: alleged sports book, and it just you know, I just 678 00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,040 Speaker 1: clicked yes on the lines. I just clicked yes on 679 00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:55,200 Speaker 1: the Broncos and passing the Ravens game. Let me let 680 00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:58,479 Speaker 1: me move on, Hold on, let me just move on here. Yeah, 681 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:02,439 Speaker 1: let me not do that yet. Uh. Well, you're really 682 00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:07,800 Speaker 1: multitasking there. Huh. You're well, you could argue it's not 683 00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:12,400 Speaker 1: a good thing. Yeah, you know. Uh, but I'm going 684 00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:14,200 Speaker 1: to bet the lines. I think we've we've come to 685 00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:18,320 Speaker 1: a deduction on that. Your attention, please, Chad is making 686 00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:22,120 Speaker 1: a bet allegedly. All right, so this gets interesting now. 687 00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:28,440 Speaker 1: Scooch cults at Raiders. The Raiders. The Raiders are clearly 688 00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,520 Speaker 1: in a free fall, just like Jon Gruden's given up 689 00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,720 Speaker 1: on this year. He's decided, I don't like the best player, 690 00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,719 Speaker 1: the best defensive player in football. I don't like the 691 00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,719 Speaker 1: only guy in my team we're throwing the ball too. 692 00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,680 Speaker 1: I don't like my uh first round selection from two 693 00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:46,480 Speaker 1: thousand seventeen. I don't even like my city. I'm going 694 00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,719 Speaker 1: to move this team to Vegas. Like he is just 695 00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:57,839 Speaker 1: stripping the car of everything that it has. Yeah, yeah, 696 00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:01,279 Speaker 1: you're not kidding. I mean this line a look aheadline 697 00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:05,000 Speaker 1: I saw actually weeks and weeks ago, just looking ahead 698 00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,440 Speaker 1: to this game. Raiders would have been a three point 699 00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:10,440 Speaker 1: favorite in this one. So it says quite a bit 700 00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:13,920 Speaker 1: a lot when the Colts, who are not a good team, 701 00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:17,719 Speaker 1: are are now laying three points on the road. So 702 00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:22,200 Speaker 1: basically a six point adjustment over the last few weeks, 703 00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,480 Speaker 1: uh from what the line would have been, So probably 704 00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:30,000 Speaker 1: the biggest adjustment since the beginning of the year, and 705 00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:32,799 Speaker 1: I could see it actually going up even more. There's 706 00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,680 Speaker 1: no there's no sharp money on on the Raiders at all. 707 00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:40,640 Speaker 1: So here's another game that we're gonna inch up, slowly, 708 00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,920 Speaker 1: even off of just a few thousand dollars, creeping up 709 00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:47,440 Speaker 1: to see when somebody comes in pretty big on the underdog. 710 00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:50,840 Speaker 1: So another game as we're as we're kind of moving 711 00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:55,920 Speaker 1: down these games, kind of gradually adjusting all these favorites. 712 00:44:55,960 --> 00:45:01,560 Speaker 1: If you've noticed, you are clearly I love that though. 713 00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:04,719 Speaker 1: Was that? So? Did you officially make a line change 714 00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:07,680 Speaker 1: right now? I did, but I didn't want to hear 715 00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:18,080 Speaker 1: the horn again. That's well, I'll tell you what I may, 716 00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:23,279 Speaker 1: I may or may not. While you were talking have 717 00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:29,600 Speaker 1: allegedly bet this next game plus two others. Your attention, please, 718 00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:34,360 Speaker 1: Chad is making a bet allegedly. This next game is 719 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:40,000 Speaker 1: the Packers at Rams. Packers plus nine, the largest dog 720 00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:48,040 Speaker 1: that Aaron Rodgers has ever been, only by half a point. Dude. 721 00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:53,880 Speaker 1: Half points mean everything. They were eight point dog in 722 00:45:54,400 --> 00:46:02,120 Speaker 1: two thousand four. Half of points mean everything. So I 723 00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:06,560 Speaker 1: agree with you, and we are. Actually I wanted to 724 00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:09,600 Speaker 1: be the absolute lowest on the Rams, so I mean 725 00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:12,720 Speaker 1: this may come back to haunt me because the ticket 726 00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,680 Speaker 1: count is about three to one Rams to Packers. But 727 00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,840 Speaker 1: I don't think you give one of the best quarterbacks 728 00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:22,440 Speaker 1: in NFL history, uh eight and a half points and 729 00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,880 Speaker 1: not take it. So I know there's nines. I've actually 730 00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:29,319 Speaker 1: seen tens a lot of nine and a half. We're 731 00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,719 Speaker 1: at eight and a half and it would be tougher. 732 00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:34,840 Speaker 1: I think a wise guy to lay that many points, 733 00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,560 Speaker 1: even with a good team like the Rams. I know 734 00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:40,200 Speaker 1: the public will lay it, but uh, I think the 735 00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:42,879 Speaker 1: sharp guys have to take the Packers in this one, 736 00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:45,359 Speaker 1: and uh so I want to be on the low 737 00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,840 Speaker 1: side just to kind of fend off the sharp action. 738 00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,959 Speaker 1: I'm with you, man, I love the Packers. In this game. 739 00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:57,600 Speaker 1: Love it. I don't think I mean the Rams, but 740 00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:02,359 Speaker 1: too I to know. I need to get John Uing 741 00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,520 Speaker 1: to go into the bet labs two for the Action 742 00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:09,520 Speaker 1: Network and Sports Insights and figure out how many times 743 00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:12,480 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers has lost games by double digits in his career. 744 00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:17,080 Speaker 1: That's a great question. You have to share that with me. 745 00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:21,359 Speaker 1: I'd like to know too. I will okay, Um, all right, 746 00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:28,640 Speaker 1: forty Cardinals, we have to talk about this. No, these 747 00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:32,080 Speaker 1: Cardinals are one point favorite Cardinals are also in free fall. 748 00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:36,320 Speaker 1: Forty Niners or haven't been the same obviously since uh 749 00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:39,120 Speaker 1: uh that that tough loss and then coming back and 750 00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,680 Speaker 1: get annihilated by the Rams. So this has be another 751 00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,719 Speaker 1: corner TV game, corner TV game. Nothing to say here, 752 00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,320 Speaker 1: all right? So this one. I've already bet Saints and Vikings. 753 00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:52,640 Speaker 1: I bet the Vikings. Uh, I think I bet him 754 00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:54,480 Speaker 1: by a point or point and a half, I can't remember, 755 00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:59,759 Speaker 1: but the Vikings minus one right now. I bet the 756 00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:03,320 Speaker 1: Vice moved it. I bet the Vikings. I bet the Vikings. 757 00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:07,640 Speaker 1: Can I tell you why? Tell me why? Number one? 758 00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:11,560 Speaker 1: The Saints are five and one. They're cruising right now. 759 00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:14,760 Speaker 1: One of us on this phone also bought a Saints 760 00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:18,120 Speaker 1: ticket to win the Super Bowl, and I'm thrilled about 761 00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:22,240 Speaker 1: everything that's happening to them. But we've reached peak Saints 762 00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:25,879 Speaker 1: right now. Like the Vikings have been struggling. They can't 763 00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:28,720 Speaker 1: put away teams, but they are winning and Kirk Cousins 764 00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:31,760 Speaker 1: is actually having an incredible year. And while that defense 765 00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:33,840 Speaker 1: isn't near what we thought it would be or what 766 00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:38,000 Speaker 1: it was last year. Um, they're improving. They're definitely getting better. 767 00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:42,080 Speaker 1: And I like the idea that they're at home is 768 00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:45,520 Speaker 1: a very short favorite against the Saints team that really 769 00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,799 Speaker 1: got lucky last weekends. The Ravens is probably getting more 770 00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:52,520 Speaker 1: credit than it deserves. Um, end of my rant, tell 771 00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:56,240 Speaker 1: me why you're taking the Saints. No, I'm not taking 772 00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,480 Speaker 1: the Saints. I think situationally, you're right. I just think 773 00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,320 Speaker 1: the points bread is right where it should be. And uh, 774 00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,400 Speaker 1: I know the public will still kind of ride the 775 00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:07,360 Speaker 1: Saints from from the last couple of weeks. But I 776 00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:10,080 Speaker 1: think the Vikings. I think the Vikings win this game 777 00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:12,279 Speaker 1: and then I think the Saints give the Rams their 778 00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:15,439 Speaker 1: first loss. That's that's what I'm saying. Interesting, Look, they're 779 00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:18,440 Speaker 1: playing next week, They're playing I'm looking ahead and and 780 00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:21,080 Speaker 1: the Saints are at home next week, and that's where 781 00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:24,480 Speaker 1: and that's where they beat the Rams. That so this 782 00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:29,520 Speaker 1: game is interesting game. Yeah, I like that. I like 783 00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:38,800 Speaker 1: that idea. Um, I like that a lot. Do you 784 00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,960 Speaker 1: think I'm on the right Do you think this line 785 00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:42,120 Speaker 1: is going to move? Do you think the Saints are 786 00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:48,480 Speaker 1: gonna end up favored in this game? Um? The public 787 00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:52,400 Speaker 1: is definitely on them. And I got a little, a little, 788 00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:54,480 Speaker 1: you know, we were actually opened one and a half. 789 00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,640 Speaker 1: We took took a few thousand dollars on the Saints 790 00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,359 Speaker 1: at plus one and a half and moved it to one. 791 00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:05,280 Speaker 1: And I don't necessarily think that was a professional better. 792 00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:09,440 Speaker 1: I think it was just some some some big bets 793 00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:14,040 Speaker 1: from some recreational betters. But I don't I don't think. 794 00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,080 Speaker 1: I don't think those sharp guys will come in too 795 00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:17,960 Speaker 1: heavily on this one. I don't see. You won't see 796 00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:22,160 Speaker 1: a big line change when sharp guy did just you. 797 00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:28,560 Speaker 1: It's all takes right, Yep, you know what I'm saying. Yep. 798 00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:31,359 Speaker 1: But it's a situational game. I think I think you're 799 00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:34,640 Speaker 1: on the right side, can you please? I like to 800 00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:36,840 Speaker 1: say Saints team though, That's all I'm saying is I 801 00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:38,920 Speaker 1: like the Saints team. Maybe not in this game, but 802 00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:46,479 Speaker 1: I like them. Uh, Patriots minus fourteen on the road, 803 00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:52,840 Speaker 1: What then do you do with this? Seriously, it's boggles 804 00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:58,960 Speaker 1: the mind. The ticket count is twenty to one right now, 805 00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:04,439 Speaker 1: kidding me, No, this is the largest ratio I've ever 806 00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:09,279 Speaker 1: seen so far, and to one on the Patriots. As 807 00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:17,960 Speaker 1: to touchdown road favorites, It's insane, isn't it. It's insane. 808 00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:23,480 Speaker 1: But I can't at the Bills. No, It's like you 809 00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,880 Speaker 1: could bet any other team in the NFL as a 810 00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:31,600 Speaker 1: two touchdown. You can bet against any other team in 811 00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:33,560 Speaker 1: the NFL is a two touchdown road a favorite. I 812 00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:38,760 Speaker 1: will not do it with the Patriots. How many times 813 00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:42,520 Speaker 1: have you gotten burned by either betting against the Patriots 814 00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,920 Speaker 1: when situations call for it? It just happens too many times. 815 00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,200 Speaker 1: As long as and I keep saying it, but as 816 00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:50,520 Speaker 1: long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are part of 817 00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:53,640 Speaker 1: that Patriots team, I'm just gonna pass on games like this. 818 00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:58,879 Speaker 1: I hate doing it. I mean, it's a Monday night game. 819 00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,719 Speaker 1: We we this game is gonna be so big. It's 820 00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:04,879 Speaker 1: gonna be bigger than the Falcons Giants game was last week. 821 00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:10,160 Speaker 1: So if some of these big favorites, like if the 822 00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:14,640 Speaker 1: the Rams cover, and the Bears and the Steelers, I mean, 823 00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,439 Speaker 1: if all these favorite big favorites cover, going to Monday Night, 824 00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:20,400 Speaker 1: this might be the biggest Monday Night game ever in 825 00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:26,439 Speaker 1: terms of liability, not in terms of popularity. It's gonna 826 00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:29,520 Speaker 1: be rough. Oh my god, we're gonna have to talk 827 00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:31,440 Speaker 1: about that next week. I can't already can't wait to 828 00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:36,319 Speaker 1: talk about that next week. Yeah, yep, hey Scooch. I 829 00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:38,359 Speaker 1: mean this is gonna go up. It's gonna go up 830 00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:40,799 Speaker 1: to fourteen. So maybe maybe the wise guys will take 831 00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,759 Speaker 1: it at fourteen. If I move it to fourteen, you're 832 00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:48,720 Speaker 1: gonna play that horn again. We'll play the strings. Okay, 833 00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:50,400 Speaker 1: I'm going to fourteen. I want to see what they 834 00:52:50,440 --> 00:53:01,560 Speaker 1: do with it. I would also, you know, you know 835 00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:07,600 Speaker 1: what we should sample. We should sample berbers Adagio for strings. 836 00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:16,720 Speaker 1: It's very haunting. Who wow, we should that should be like, um, 837 00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:19,160 Speaker 1: that is the music I think it was in like Platoon. 838 00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:21,319 Speaker 1: You you know the music it's always in like every 839 00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:24,839 Speaker 1: movie when they're doing something that is really dramatic. Um, 840 00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:28,520 Speaker 1: you'll hear it and Uh, I think that that would 841 00:53:28,560 --> 00:53:31,120 Speaker 1: be great music for like when something bad has happened 842 00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:35,279 Speaker 1: to you, like when you lose this. We'll play that 843 00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:39,879 Speaker 1: if you can play the haunting stuff. Yeah, I like it. 844 00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:43,040 Speaker 1: Let's do that. Um, and we don't You don't have 845 00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,680 Speaker 1: to pay for that classical music. Huh, that's in the 846 00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,880 Speaker 1: public domain, is that right? I don't know I'm getting. 847 00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:52,319 Speaker 1: I'm getting shaking of the head and a person of 848 00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:55,160 Speaker 1: the lips like Scooch just out of his lane a 849 00:53:55,200 --> 00:54:01,520 Speaker 1: little bit. He doesn't really know what I'm listen to you. 850 00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:05,840 Speaker 1: I started communications at USC with a Pulitzer winner. What 851 00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:12,399 Speaker 1: I'm talking about? It's good? Try though, guess what time 852 00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:16,320 Speaker 1: to do? It's I think I know it's that time again. 853 00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:26,160 Speaker 1: We can sample that ship for free, but we can't 854 00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:31,480 Speaker 1: get Adagio for strings for free. All right, Well, we 855 00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:34,600 Speaker 1: need a bigger budget. We need a music budget. Hey, 856 00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:37,160 Speaker 1: how do we do in Screwtrolet? Last week? Who did 857 00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:41,000 Speaker 1: you have? I had the Redskins? You had the Redskins? Right, 858 00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:43,080 Speaker 1: you were taking the Redskins and I wanted the Redskins. 859 00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:46,080 Speaker 1: So I think I ended up taking the Bears, right. 860 00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:52,359 Speaker 1: I took Arizona. That was ugly. Yeah, then I get 861 00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:56,000 Speaker 1: to go first this week, go ahead. I want the 862 00:54:56,080 --> 00:55:04,320 Speaker 1: Vikings minus one. I figured that. Yeah, not bad, not bad. Yeah, 863 00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:08,520 Speaker 1: who do you want? I want the Cardinals minus one. No, 864 00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:11,719 Speaker 1: that's horrible. Who wants the Oh my god, I was 865 00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:17,960 Speaker 1: kidd of Wow, that's crazy. No, actually I have to 866 00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:23,000 Speaker 1: take the Packers, taking the pack Absolutely have to take 867 00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:27,400 Speaker 1: the Packers plus that many points. And that's assuming everyone's healthy. 868 00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:29,440 Speaker 1: I don't want it to come out later that, you know, 869 00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:33,760 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers hurt his knee again in practice or something. 870 00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:37,799 Speaker 1: But healthy Rogers. I gotta take it. We are both 871 00:55:37,880 --> 00:55:46,000 Speaker 1: NFC North fans this weekend. Oh true? Yeah, yeah, alright, Scooch, 872 00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:49,160 Speaker 1: this has been the favorites. I'm Chad Millman of the 873 00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:52,279 Speaker 1: Action Network. He was Bob Scucci of the Orleans and 874 00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:54,919 Speaker 1: all the Boy gaming books around the country. You can 875 00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:58,160 Speaker 1: download us from Apple Podcasts. You can listen to us 876 00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:01,440 Speaker 1: at radio dot com. We are on the air Monday, 877 00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:04,279 Speaker 1: Wednesday and Friday. Next up will be with Friday Black 878 00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:09,080 Speaker 1: Chack Fletcher Westgate Super Contest five picks. Until next time, 879 00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:11,520 Speaker 1: m