WEBVTT - What’s Happening on Hospital Frontlines 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.960 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:05.480 Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest 0:00:05.519 --> 0:00:09.800 news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.480 all harnessing the power of Bloomberg Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:16.639 not to mention our hundred journalists and analysts more than 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.280 a hundred and twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.200 Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You can 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:24.520 also listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:27.760 Eastern only on Bloomberg Radio. Back with us, I want 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:30.040 to get right to him is Dr Ian LUs Bader, 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:32.839 clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at n y U Landgoing 0:00:32.920 --> 0:00:36.480 Medical Center. He is on the phone from there where 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:38.080 he's been working at one of the I c U 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:41.400 units at the hospital. UM. Dr LUs Bader, and nice 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:43.760 to have you here with us. I hope you're staying 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:46.040 safe and sound. Tell us a little bit about where 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:47.600 you are right now and some of the work that 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:50.519 has been facing you in the last twenty four hours. 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.280 So thank you again for having me, and I hope 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:57.600 you guys are are all stay safe as well. UM. 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:00.800 I was surrounding earlier at the hospital and some of 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:03.520 the I c U s with the with the medical teams, 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:05.440 and you know, I think we have some good news 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:08.240 and less good news. The good news is that the 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:12.200 case volume is dropping, their more discharges. I think the 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:16.280 overall mood of the staff is more positive still obviously 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.680 in the midst of crisis and a number of patients 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:25.360 on ventilators and with a high mortality once you are intubated. UM. 0:01:25.440 --> 0:01:27.000 But I think the spirit is very good, and I 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:30.840 think there's a real commitment of the doctors and nurses 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:33.520 and the scientists and some of the researchers to really 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:36.080 figure out what's going on and try and come up 0:01:36.080 --> 0:01:39.800 with some solutions. UM. I think some of the less 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:43.480 good news are limitations who are a little limited in 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:46.600 the office in testing to try and diagnose someone who 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:51.520 you know, for example, clinically has COVID nineteen h point 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:54.800 of care testing is very limited. And we also know 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:59.880 that about of those patients are false negatives. In other words, 0:01:59.880 --> 0:02:03.200 they hadn't and you may have to test them once twice. 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:05.680 And we've even had a patient who needed a third 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:08.360 nasal swab in order to make the diagnosis when it 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:11.640 was obvious that's that's what they had. And the reason 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:15.280 you need to be sure is to enroll patients and 0:02:15.320 --> 0:02:18.280 studies and that as you know today in the news 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:22.160 exciting about GILLIAD. But I think some of that excitement 0:02:22.200 --> 0:02:25.320 is a little premature. You know, all of these UH 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:30.040 studies are really unlimited number of patients. UM. Most of 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:34.480 them are not placevo control trials or randomized placebo control 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:37.560 trials where you can really say is this the right 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.760 treatment to use? Their encouraging results or they may drop 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.640 their hospitals stay by a day, UH, they may drop 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:47.000 their fevers earlier. So people are getting excited, but the 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:50.680 reality is we don't have a consensus as to the 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:56.080 best way to treat patients with coronavirus COVID nineteen. We 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:59.679 can't determine which patients are going to do well in advance. 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:02.320 So thank thankfully most of them do well and have 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:04.639 the patients who deteriorate and then who need to come 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:08.280 into the hospital, they're on randomized studies now because it's 0:03:08.320 --> 0:03:10.640 hard to know, and those studies can include the hydroxy 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:17.040 chloroquine with without a zettermycin, something called i le sex 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:21.440 inhibitors which decrease inflammation. Ran dezevie, which is an anti 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:26.160 viral similar to the HIV drugs. It's an RNA nucleoside 0:03:26.200 --> 0:03:29.720 analog and that Gilliad is working on and that had 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:33.840 some excitement, but again, no controlled studies and convalescent plasma 0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:37.760 where you capture the antibodies and plasma of patients who 0:03:37.800 --> 0:03:42.200 have documented to recover, infuse that into sick patients. And 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:44.200 there have been some studies out of China on that, 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:46.880 and there are a few places in the United States 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:50.480 that are also working on that. That also seems encouraging, 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:52.800 but at this point we don't really have a huge 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:57.400 consensus as to this is the best way to treat someone. Well. 0:03:57.400 --> 0:03:59.440 I want to go back to to something you said 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:02.360 there at the top of the conversation in which is 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:06.000 around you know, sort of the mood of the healthcare workers, 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:08.680 you know, in New York City where where you are. 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:11.960 I mean, this is the undisputed epicenter at this point. 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:14.800 So what your painting is is it does give me 0:04:15.120 --> 0:04:17.119 and I think a lot of our listeners a little 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:20.520 bit of hope. Talk to us about how they are 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:24.120 feeling about PPE, how are they feeling about sort of 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:29.400 having the the materials both protective and otherwise that they 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:32.960 need to deal with. Still a significant amount of patients 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:36.159 coming in. Oh for sure, no, no question, this is 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:39.760 not going away soon, and we certainly don't know if 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:42.320 there will be a second wave or even a resurgence 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:46.120 in the full um. So typically in the old days, 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:49.719 when you see a patient with say tuberculosis or UH 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:54.760 transmissible disease, all of your PPE was disposable, in other words, 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:59.680 from your mask, to your gloves, to your gowns. Now, uh, 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:03.960 some of that is rash and gowns get disposed. Masks, Uh. 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:07.159 The N nine masks have to be fit tested to 0:05:07.200 --> 0:05:10.080 make sure there are no leaks. A leak would not 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:14.440 serve you well. And patients generally, or rather doctors are 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:18.040 usually given one per day, not one per patient, so 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:19.960 you do have to be careful with it. You do 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:23.160 have to Usually people put a mask over the mask 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:25.919 of disposable surgical mask, where we have more of those. 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:30.760 So there is PPE, but it's not it's being conserved. 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:33.080 Let's put it that way. You know, I want to 0:05:33.080 --> 0:05:35.880 go back to what you said, I mean, does the 0:05:35.920 --> 0:05:39.440 majority of our population need to be tested? In order 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:42.000 for us to really get a handle on this virus 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:44.520 and and to ultimately understand what works and what doesn't. 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:49.760 Great question, and the answer is absolutely yes, Uh, we 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:53.080 really and healthcare workers. So it's going to be impossible 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.479 in the New York area to send everyone to their 0:05:56.560 --> 0:06:00.280 local lab ten million people, uh and get antibody. So 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.480 although ideally that should be done, but that would really 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:07.880 overwhelm the system. Um. But certainly healthcare workers. There are 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:11.320 doctors who would love to know whether or not they 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.279 have antibodies. Although I must say we are not adent 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:18.720 sure having antibodies will protect you, because there are some 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:22.480 mutations and there are have been some studies where people 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:26.720 clear the virus theoretically cured and then at a later 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.800 point are tested and have virus in there you know, 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:33.160 naso pharynx. So that's a little ambiguous. But there are 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:37.560 many physicians who work up close E n T doctors, dentists, um, 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:40.760 gas ronturologists, you know, when the list goes on and on, 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:44.600 who who think they've been sick. Uh, maybe they had 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:47.440 a mild virus, maybe they had COVID either from a 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:50.880 patient or something else. And if they had antibodies, would 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:54.240 feel much more comfortable going back to work. All right, 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:57.880 stick with us if you can, Doctor less Bader, We're 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:00.720 going to continue this conversation in just a minute. Dr 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:03.360 Ian Lesbater, he is on the front lines making his 0:07:03.480 --> 0:07:05.720 rounds at the I see you this weekend at the 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:08.120 n y U Lango Medical Center. We're going to continue 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:11.440 that conversation in just a minute. You're listening to Bloomberg 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:15.600 Business Week, Jason Kelly, Carol Masser. You're on Bloomberg. Dr 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:18.320 Ian les Baider is still with us, Clinical Associate Professor 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:21.240 of Medicine at n y U Landgown Medical Center. He 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:24.520 is covering the I See you at the hospital as 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:27.520 we speak. He's there and he's on the phone. Um Ian, 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:30.000 thanks so much for sticking around with us. UM talk 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:32.400 to us, because I think what we're hearing increasingly from 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:35.720 governors from everyone is about how do we reopen in 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:38.640 the criteria UM that has to be met to be 0:07:38.760 --> 0:07:43.200 able to UM reopen cities and states. How do you 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:45.520 see it? What what does the other side look like 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:50.480 to you? So you're exactly right that testing is really 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:54.760 key in this situation and we don't really have that. Uh, 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:58.160 optimally you'd want to bring people back, such as healthcare 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:01.400 workers who have that uh I g G positive showing 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:04.040 antibodies to COVID. They think they had a mild infection 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:07.840 or more severe infection, and presumably they are now safe. 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:11.600 The problem is testing a large number of people and 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:14.880 how accurate is it. As we've said before, thirty of 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:19.480 nasal swabs or false negatives. We have patients who have 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:23.160 COVID clinically and it takes two or three swabs. So 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:26.040 this is really unstarted territory. We've never really had a 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:29.360 pandemic like this in the United States in recent memory. 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:33.400 We've never locked down states and returned people. So we 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:36.760 really don't know the exact safest way to do this, 0:08:36.960 --> 0:08:40.320 and there's always some risk um But at the end 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:42.600 of the day, I think people do need to return 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:46.080 for a variety of reasons UH, financial and mental health, 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:49.560 and my sense would be the most vulnerable people and 0:08:49.600 --> 0:08:56.840 we knew we know that population diabetes, hypertension, underlying disease, obesity, UH. 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:59.480 There are a number of conditions that seem to make 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:02.440 the outcome is worse. Although we do still see young 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:06.480 people who get into trouble. Those should remain on isolation 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:10.160 until they can be tested. The reality is a vaccine 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:13.720 is probably a year away. You cannot keep ten million 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:16.200 people in the tri state area or in in the 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.319 in the Greater New York area at home for a 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:21.640 year until a vaccine comes out. So there has to 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:27.880 be some way of developing a return before you can 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.880 get hurt immunity. And that's ultimately what we want is 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:33.439 enough people either to have the disease in a mold 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:37.280 form or vaccinated so everyone can safely returned. But as 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:39.839 fought she says, there are people will have to wear 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:45.520 masks and do some social distancing until that is achieved. Well, so, Ian, 0:09:46.160 --> 0:09:48.800 let's talk about that, you know a little bit further 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:52.760 under the auspices of you're there in New York City. 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:55.800 We work in New York City. We know the physical 0:09:55.920 --> 0:10:00.480 plant that is Manhattan. Especially, what is a I'm asking 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:03.559 you to purely sort of speculate here, but what is 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.760 a New York City on the other side of this 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.520 where social distancing and all of those things need to 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:11.719 be in place for some measure of time. What does 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.360 it look like and feel like. What what's the advice 0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:16.920 you would give to people in terms of moving around 0:10:17.040 --> 0:10:20.480 trying to you know, kind of live something akin to 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:24.959 a normal life. Since we know about or so of 0:10:25.080 --> 0:10:28.840 people generally UH do reasonably well with us. They have 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:33.079 mild to moderate disease, relatively small percent come to the 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:37.760 emergency room, and another smaller percent get intibated. Unfortunately, once 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:40.040 you're intibated, a higher percent to not do well for 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:42.160 a variety of reasons, and we need to figure out 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:46.360 a better treatment. With those randomized control studies that we 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:50.120 talked about, hydroxy chloroquine ile sex inhibitors from de severe 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:54.720 convalescent plasma. I think everyone will feel better when we 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:57.360 have data about what really works, and at this point 0:10:57.360 --> 0:11:00.160 we have a lot of anecdotal evidence on us all 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:02.800 number of patients. In the next few months we should 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:06.120 be getting much the results of much bigger trials. But 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:09.000 as people return, I think masks and gloves in the 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:11.720 subway are reasonable. It's very hard to keep six feet 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.840 apart as as one can imagine um, and there will 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:17.120 be some risk, and I think people who are ill 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:20.800 and can't take that risk probably should not go back, 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:23.199 and we'll have to figure out how to accommodate them. 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.600 But the majority of people should be able to go back. 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:29.480 But testing would be helpful. We still as an outpatient, 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:34.000 cannot have someone come in who symptomatic, do a spit 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.320 saliva test and get a result back. Hopefully that will 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:39.760 come soon. We so patients come in, you know they 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.960 have the disease. Uh, you can't test them and we 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:45.400 really can't offer them a good treatment. So I think 0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:48.880 when we get those two blocks in, I can tell 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:50.800 you that you have it and not just tell you 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:53.280 you have the symptoms of it. And I can tell 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:56.640 you this works most of the time. I think people 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:59.080 will be concerned, But I don't think either of that 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:03.920 data is very soon. It'll probably be a few months, uh, 0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:07.640 and that's probably the trajectory that people will safely return 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:10.440 to work. All right, listen, thank you so much. And 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:12.120 I know this was a hectic day for you and 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:15.000 and you stepped away, so we really appreciate it. Dr 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.640 Ian LUs Bader, stay safe, Be well, Clinical Associate Professor 0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:21.440 of Medicine at n y U Landgo Medical Center on 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:23.439 the phone from there. He's been working at the I 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:27.560 c U units as we speak. This is Bloomberg Business 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:31.679 Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. 0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:34.880 Someone's had a lot of experience covering the global economy. 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:38.120 Jason is our own Tom Orleck can't get enough of 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:41.000 this guy. And I was so excited to get a chance, 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:42.920 and I'm so excited to get a chance to to 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:48.640 talk to him, because China remains just the big story. 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:52.240 And of course Tom Arol gives Bloomberg Economics chief economis 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:55.160 he joins us on the phone from Washington. All right, Tom, 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:57.160 so we woke up this morning. We saw some of 0:12:57.200 --> 0:12:59.520 it actually as we were going to bed last night, 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:02.720 things happening in China. This is a momentous moment, right, 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:07.840 I think it's it's really unprecedented. Jason. We have a 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:12.959 six point eight contraction in China's GDP in the first 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:16.360 quarter of the year um and of course that's against 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:21.880 the backdrop of an economy which typically is expanding around 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:26.040 six percent a year. So really an extraordinary drop in 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:30.720 China's growth and sort of a vivid illustration of the 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:34.640 magnitude of the impact which lockdown with the lockdowns which 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:36.880 of course we now have not just in China, but 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:40.000 in the US, in Europe, around the world are having 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:43.560 on output well. And Tom, this is a nation that 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:47.040 thrives and grows un demand from the rest of the world, 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:50.240 and right now they really have to rely on local 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:55.240 demand right to kind of bring about a recovery. That's right, Carol, 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:57.559 And so I mean, if we dig into the details 0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:01.120 of the Chinese Chinese data, what we see is actually 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.480 they came back quite strongly at the end of the quarter. 0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:10.720 February was terrible, massive contraction. March they regained a lot 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:13.440 of the lost ground. So there was an optimistic sort 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:17.640 of note there. But thinking into the second quarter, the 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:19.880 point you make, Carol, about the rest of the world 0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:22.440 and what's happening here in the US and in Europe, 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:25.320 it's really going to come into play. Who is trying 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:28.520 to going to export to when the US is contracting, 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:31.680 when Europe is contracting, when all of these other emerging 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:34.640 markets are in trouble um And so for that reason, 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:38.520 even as the lockdown eases in China, we don't expect 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:43.960 an aggressive recovery. And so Tom some historical context of 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:48.280 it, it it feels like is important here, both recent and 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.840 maybe not so recent. From a recent perspective, you know, 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.720 this is a country that that was already especially given 0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:58.520 or in the context of its relationship with the United 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:02.320 states already in in a little bit of a difficult position. 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.560 Clearly a superpower, but one that has been in a 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:07.520 state I don't know if I would go so far 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:10.080 as say existential crisis, but but at least sort of 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:14.040 searching for itself in some ways. This has has really 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:17.680 thrown so much into question what does it tell us 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:24.600 about the economic might going forward of China. I think 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.560 that's a really critical question, Jason, And for me, the 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:30.080 interesting thing is to think about how we've had the 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:34.640 trade war, which really sort of highlighted the split between 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:39.560 China and the US UM, now immediately followed by this pandemic, 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:43.600 which of course illustrates how governments need to work together 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:47.320 to fight against global risks like disease outbreaks and climate 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:52.160 change UM, but unfortunately has also illustrated the potential for 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:57.440 that conflicting, conflicting relationship, with government squabbling over who gets 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:01.840 access to medical resources, who shares what data, UM, and 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:05.120 so on. UM. So I think that that the pandemic, 0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:08.480 following hard on the heels of the trade war, is 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:13.600 really going to be another factor which drives slow slowing 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:18.640 in globalization or even deglobalization, as governments become more self 0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:23.400 reliant as governments get more suspicious of each other and 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:28.080 of companies and supply chains which cross borders. So it's broken, 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:30.720 tim the relationship between the U. S And China, between 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:34.800 trade between the virus, or at least between these current administrations, 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:39.560 it's broken. So I think there's certainly something to be 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:43.000 said for the idea that the current administration in the 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:48.240 United States UM, and the current administration in China part 0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:52.560 of are important factors of work. Um. The guy we've 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:54.680 got in the White House, the guy we've got in 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:59.280 John ann High, China's leadership compound, Um, they've got very 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:04.520 distinct of kind of muscular, nationally oriented views of the world, 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:09.240 and I don't think that's really helping the bilateral relationship. 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:13.680 At the same time, here we have these two major powers, 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:18.959 a democracy, a single party states, a free market economy, 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:23.360 a state dominated economy. There's a lot that they can 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:27.000 disagree about, and the trade war and now the pandemic 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:30.640 have really brought those disagreements to the surface. I think 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:34.000 even after the outbreak is over, we're going to see 0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:38.800 that challenging relationship remaining very challenging. And that's going to 0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:43.560 be Frankly an overhang on global growth going forward, not 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:47.120 just for the next few months, but for the foreseeable future. Well, 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:50.399 and that's such an important point here, Tom, that you 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:52.720 know this isn't just about these two countries only about 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:55.360 thirty seconds left. What does it mean for the rest 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:57.960 of the world if you're sitting outside of these superpowers, 0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:02.199 either in Asia or in Latin America, or certainly in 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:05.240 Europe or maybe even in Africa. How does it change 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:10.120 your playbook? Just got a minute here for thirty seconds. So, 0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:12.640 I mean, the first problem that all of these country's 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.600 faces there is their domestic outbreaks. They need to get 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:19.800 those under control. Even when that happens, though, they're not 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:22.000 going to be able to look to China as a 0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.720 powerful driver of growth, all the open trade system as 0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:28.239 a sort of a force for lifting them out of 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:32.720 lifting them and driving development. Yeah, it's such a great point, man, 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:36.000 h muscular interpretation of the world. Is that what he 0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:37.760 said before? He said I'm going to go back and 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.399 listen to it, because there was the most eloquent description 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.919 of presidency and President Trump that I've heard and explains 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:47.040 so much. Yeah, it explains a ton alright, Tom Warlick, 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:51.080 what a treat Bloomberg Economics Chief Economists. This is Bloomberg 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:55.520 Business Week with Carol Mazer and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. 0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:58.320 It's just favorite on favorite here in the three o'clock 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:02.920 our Bloomberg Businesses. We turned out of Max Abelson, Bloomberg 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:07.639 News Finance reporter. When I saw this scoop late yesterday, 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:12.199 I was just blown away, and not surprisingly Max's name 0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:16.159 was on it. Canter Fitzgerald hundreds of job cuts in 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:19.200 a break from Wall Street. That's the headline. Max joins 0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:21.280 us on the phone to tell us what's going on. 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:24.960 As Carol Master would say, Max, whoa, this is a 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:28.879 big story. Wow. I am so glad that you like it, 0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:30.399 and it's so nice to be with you guys, and 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:34.240 you feel connected to YouTube despite all this separateness. Yeah, 0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:37.680 you doing okay? Max? I am on hanging in there 0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:40.760 and writing fun stories thanks to Street our Natarajan and 0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:42.960 Jillian can who I teamed up with for this one. 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:46.080 You know, basically, I think it's probably fair to say 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:48.080 over the last few weeks, what we've heard from Wall 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:51.240 Street is this pretty unified voice saying like, look, we 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.159 are not going to let people go during you know, 0:19:54.200 --> 0:19:57.760 basically first of all, a public health crisis and also 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:03.119 be clearly the worst on unemployment catastrophe in decades, if not, 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.600 I think ever, and Cantor Fitzgerald, the you know, which 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:10.399 is obviously survived this horrible devastation after nine eleven, and 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:13.119 then Howard Lutnick we built it. Now Candervid Gerald is 0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:15.320 going to lay up hundreds of people. We uh we 0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:19.480 exclusively reported late last night. Why what why are they 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:22.399 making this move when others are just battening down the 0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:26.600 hatchets here Max, Well, you know, I think that one 0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:28.760 of the reasons that this piece of news was big 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:31.159 is that it's about um Lutnick, you know, trying to 0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:33.399 shore up his empire. Um. You know, we spoke to 0:20:33.440 --> 0:20:36.399 a lot of people, and you know, so if you 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:38.080 if you take a step back, you know what you 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:42.520 see is first of all, just the deepest reductions at 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:44.680 a Wall Street bank that we've seen since this this 0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:47.359 operator began. But you're also seeing something a little bit 0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:50.400 bigger than that. Inside of Howard Lutnix world, which don't 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:53.520 don't forget includes we have canderrids Gerald on the one hand, 0:20:53.760 --> 0:20:55.919 but another thing that that Shery and Jillian I reported 0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:59.320 on is BGC Partners, which is an affiliate firm. Their 0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:02.640 share is just absolutely collapsed, uh in the last few 0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:04.800 weeks because they announced that they were splashing their dividend 0:21:05.040 --> 0:21:06.680 I think, to like a penny or something like that, 0:21:07.160 --> 0:21:09.800 and probably more importantly, that they were drawing down hundreds 0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:12.240 of millions of dollars from from their revolving credit facility. 0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:14.680 That that's that's in the last few months. And then 0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:16.960 of course there's also Newmark Knight Frank, I don't know 0:21:16.960 --> 0:21:18.560 if you folks know that name. That's a commercial, real 0:21:18.600 --> 0:21:21.240 steet firm. People they're being ousked to take pay cuffs. 0:21:21.280 --> 0:21:23.280 So the reality is it's a big news story because 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:25.760 it's it's bigger than just Cantor. It's sort of this 0:21:25.840 --> 0:21:29.159 whole lut Nick, this Lotnic empire. So would this have 0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:33.080 happened may beyond a longer time frame even without the 0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:37.040 virus where their problems already brewing, or is it really 0:21:37.080 --> 0:21:40.439 just because of the virus. Well, one reason that I 0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:42.800 love working with Street are who you both know and 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:45.439 our golden sax feat reporter. But of course he does 0:21:45.560 --> 0:21:48.040 terrific work across the wall. Street That guy called me 0:21:48.119 --> 0:21:50.280 up this morning. I think literally, I want to say, 0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:52.560 maybe seven thirty a m. I was still in bed. 0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:55.160 You know, we we published our story last night, and 0:21:55.200 --> 0:21:56.800 this morning he looked me up because he said he 0:21:56.800 --> 0:21:59.359 wanted to update the story with a detail that touched 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:02.520 on exactly that. And the detail there, Carol, is that 0:22:03.320 --> 0:22:06.679 you know, the there there. You you often see job 0:22:06.720 --> 0:22:09.720 cuts on Wall Street like this, Um, you know earlier 0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:11.760 in the year, you know there's that van flow of 0:22:11.840 --> 0:22:14.679 sort of layoffs on Wall Street, but that that tends 0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:18.639 to happen before bonuses are given. So that's that's a 0:22:18.680 --> 0:22:20.760 reason to think that this is sort of out of 0:22:20.760 --> 0:22:23.840 the ordinary, not part of the normal evan flow that 0:22:23.960 --> 0:22:26.400 we would have normally expected to be earlier in the years. 0:22:26.440 --> 0:22:30.160 That start thinking on that, and so Max only got 0:22:30.160 --> 0:22:32.159 about a minute and a half or so left. That 0:22:32.200 --> 0:22:34.479