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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Monday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast, a Thanksgiving week edition.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perrault. You can follow me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at sports Talk Matt. This off bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 1: and it's always being brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: All right, so call me mister mediocre, because boy, uh,

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Speaker 1: one in one, two and two, two and two, I

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Speaker 1: mean just kind of where we are right now, and

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Speaker 1: we're down the juice a little bit each one of

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Speaker 1: these days, so it's kind of like a slow bleed here.

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Speaker 1: Not great, it's not awful either, But three and two

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Speaker 1: on the prop bets yesterday, you know, basically evened up

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Speaker 1: from the juice. We lost on the two and two

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Speaker 1: mark that we were at yesterday, but we were lucky

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Speaker 1: to get two and two. I'm not going to sit

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Speaker 1: here and say that one in three was not a

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Speaker 1: real possibility, and hell, oh and four was staring us

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Speaker 1: straight in the face yesterday. The add ons that I

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Speaker 1: did during the live stream, they don't count for the record,

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Speaker 1: but that was brutal until I got the same game

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Speaker 1: teaser to save my behind in the Raiders game, so

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Speaker 1: I was able to get some of my money back there.

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Speaker 1: So pretty much just kind of a wash of an

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Speaker 1: entire day. Not really what you want, right, you don't

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Speaker 1: want to do all that Waygderam come out basically flat,

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Speaker 1: but hell, you know, I'm not going to complain about it.

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Speaker 1: It's better than losing money. I want to make money,

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Speaker 1: but it's better than losing money. So three and two

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Speaker 1: on the props, two and two on the plays. We

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Speaker 1: get the Raiders right with the over that got there

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Speaker 1: pretty easily thanks to that late touchdown by the Raider

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Speaker 1: by the Chiefs rather and we got a miracle with

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Speaker 1: the Colts, and I'll take it every time, but it

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Speaker 1: was a miracle in overtime the fumble there by the

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Speaker 1: Packers picked up and then turned into a game winning

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Speaker 1: few goal by the Colts, and we win that minus

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Speaker 1: one and a half. The Patriots do not get there,

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Speaker 1: and the Patriots just continue to be Doctor Jekyl and

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Speaker 1: mister Hyde. They can beat the Ravens, but they can't

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Speaker 1: go on the road and beat Deshaun Watson, who, as

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Speaker 1: we talked about yesterday on the on the podcast, I

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Speaker 1: mean I was concerned about the passing attack for Deshaun Watson,

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Speaker 1: and I should have just bet more prop bets on

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Speaker 1: to Shawn Watson, but I wasn't comfortable as to who

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Speaker 1: he was gonna throw to. But should have just bet

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. His number was jacked up really high, so

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Speaker 1: I was afraid to play it, but should have just

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Speaker 1: played it because he diced the Patriots up and a

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Speaker 1: big win for Houston. So Patriots continued to be off

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Speaker 1: and on. What's crazy is that the Patriots have defeated

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Speaker 1: the Ravens this season and the Raiders this season. So

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Speaker 1: if they were to get to say eight and eight,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not saying they're gonna get there, they're four

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Speaker 1: and six, but if they were to get to eight

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Speaker 1: and eight, they do have a chance to get some

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Speaker 1: tie breakers to get into the postseason. So it's not

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Speaker 1: totally out of the question for the Patriots to get there. Now,

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Speaker 1: what would they do in the playoffs? I have no idea.

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Speaker 1: They would need mother Nature to whip up a nasty

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Speaker 1: storm every single weekend. It had to be bitterly cold

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Speaker 1: to play the type of football that they play, and

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Speaker 1: they have to have to have to lead the entire time.

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Speaker 1: But most likely it's not gonna happen. The Ravens are

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Speaker 1: in deep trouble. The wheels are off here, and they

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Speaker 1: play on a short week on Thursday for Thanksgiving against

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Speaker 1: the undefeated tenan O Steelers. Yeah, on a short week

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Speaker 1: on a holiday. My goodness, more on Thanksgiving here in

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Speaker 1: just one second. But Patriots wrong and just it was

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Speaker 1: one of those days where I don't know, I got frustrated.

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Speaker 1: I should have bet the Titans. I backed off of it.

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Speaker 1: I had it. We had it on a couple of

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Speaker 1: our picks for the contest plays. I should have bet it.

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Speaker 1: I was five and a half, it was going down.

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Speaker 1: I got nervous about not getting the best number that

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Speaker 1: was available, and the Titans win the game outright. So

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Speaker 1: we have a bunch of futures going right now in

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Speaker 1: the end that are good. The Jets just cashed are

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Speaker 1: under six and a half. Now we gotta wait for

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Speaker 1: the year to be over to collect our money. But

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Speaker 1: the Jets that cashed, we have the Raiders over seven

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Speaker 1: now they only have six, but they're gonna get there.

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Speaker 1: They've got two wins. The Raiders will win the next

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Speaker 1: two weeks and they will cash that ticket. We've got

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Speaker 1: the alternative wins for the Titans at nine and a

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Speaker 1: half and that's plus money and that's looking very good

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Speaker 1: right now with the Titans win over the Ravens. And

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Speaker 1: then we got the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division

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Speaker 1: the North at plus one point fifteen, that's gonna hit

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Speaker 1: and the Rams to win the division coming up with

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Speaker 1: the West. Big game tonight on Monday Night football on

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Speaker 1: the road at Tampa. So this is a big game

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Speaker 1: for Los Angeles in primetime, going across the country once

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Speaker 1: again against Tom Brady and this Buccaneer offense. So before

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Speaker 1: we get to the place, I've got one and you

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Speaker 1: probably guess what I'm gonna do here. If You've listened

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Speaker 1: to the podcast, you know how I'm gonna approach this game.

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Speaker 1: I got one full unit play, got three prop bets

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Speaker 1: at a quarter unit to talk about coming up here

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Speaker 1: on the podcast. But first, if you want one hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars in free wagers from BETMGM, it's very easy to do.

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Speaker 1: So all you got to do if you're in a

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Speaker 1: state like Tennessee, Indiana, New Jersey, West Virginia, you download

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Speaker 1: the app, you register using the promo code Juice one

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Speaker 1: hundred one dollar on the money line, either the Rams

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Speaker 1: or the Bucks, and if either team scores a touchdown,

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Speaker 1: you win one hundred dollars in free wagers thanks to

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Speaker 1: bet MGM. Is that simple using the bonus code juice

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Speaker 1: one hundred. Now, you must be physically located in Tennessee, Colorado, Indiana,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, or West Virginia. Go to betemgm dot com

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Speaker 1: for terms and conditions. You must be twenty one years

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Speaker 1: or older. Please gamble responsibly. You've got a gambling problem.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna call one in one hundred five to two

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Speaker 1: forty seven hundred in Colorado, one hundred gambler in New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: or one one hundred and nine with it in Indiana.

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Speaker 1: So here's the thing. On Thursday, we have been given

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Speaker 1: the okay to do a Turkey Day live stream. Now,

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Speaker 1: I know it's a really busy day for a lot

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Speaker 1: of you, but I tossed this out on the live

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Speaker 1: stream on Sunday morning and said, look, you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: not going anywhere. Nevada just went into a partial lockdown yesterday,

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Speaker 1: and so you can't go out to dinner. You can't.

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Speaker 1: We had like toyed around with the idea of like

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Speaker 1: maybe going out to dinner for Thanksgiving, but now no

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Speaker 1: twenty five percent capacity everywhere, including at casinos, and it's

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Speaker 1: just for three weeks. It's going to be a tough,

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Speaker 1: tough run here in Las Vegas, so we're not going anywhere.

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Speaker 1: I'm cooking the bird here at home, and I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be up. So there's three games, including Steelers in the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: There's prop bets colore, there's three games to bet on.

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Speaker 1: So I said to Dan Harris, I'm up for it.

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Speaker 1: Do you guys are you cool with doing it? Will

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Speaker 1: you give me the graphics and the support to go

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Speaker 1: ahead and do a live stream? And they said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: knock it out. So we will have a live stream

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Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern Time, eight am Pacific on Thanksgiving before

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Speaker 1: the three games kick off. So I think that goes

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Speaker 1: right up to kickoff, right. I think the first kick

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Speaker 1: is at noon. I gotta check that. It may be

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Speaker 1: twelve thirty for the first kick, but it's earlier than

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Speaker 1: normal because of the three games, and they want their

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Speaker 1: own separate audiences and they want to be able to

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Speaker 1: market it and blah blah blah whatever. So I think

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Speaker 1: that's right. But I might be wrong about that, but whatever,

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Speaker 1: eleven am. A game won't kick off at eleven am Eastern,

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Speaker 1: I don't believe. So we'll go from eleven to twelve

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Speaker 1: for one hour, breaking down all the place potential that

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Speaker 1: we can get into and just hanging out for an hour.

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Speaker 1: So if you're stuck at home, if you're not with

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Speaker 1: your family and you can't travel and you just want

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Speaker 1: to hang with us, will be your Thanksgiving support, your

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Speaker 1: daily juice family will be there for you if you

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Speaker 1: want to hang out. So we'll be there Thursday morning,

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Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern on the Betting pros YouTube channel, So

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Speaker 1: make sure you are a subscriber to that, so you're

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Speaker 1: getting not divide when I go live for that hour

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Speaker 1: on Thursday. We'll still do it. On Sunday, we'll still

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Speaker 1: do it, but on Thursday we're gonna do it for real.

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Speaker 1: I'm not doing my radio show that day, so I've

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Speaker 1: got Thursday and Friday off, so I've got some time,

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Speaker 1: so we're gonna do that. Okay, So here is my

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Speaker 1: thought on tonight with the Rams at the Bucks. So

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Speaker 1: the Rams have been a pretty consistent team when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the under They're they're pretty hard. They're pretty

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Speaker 1: hard to score on, right now, Okay, they've got you know,

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Speaker 1: look at the number two ranks scoring defense in the

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Speaker 1: NFL eighteen points per game. They're number one with opposing

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Speaker 1: yards per play at four point eight. This is why

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Speaker 1: I bet them to win the West because of their defense,

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Speaker 1: not their offense, but because of their defense. You look

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Speaker 1: at the way that they've been playing. Look the way

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Speaker 1: the Rams have been going after it. Over the last

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Speaker 1: six games, the under has come in for the Rams.

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Speaker 1: The total has been set anywhere from forty five to

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Speaker 1: fifty five in every game. Giants, Washington forty nine, Ers, Bears, Dolphins, Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: all on. All right, The problem I've got with this

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Speaker 1: is Tampa might not need to score all that much

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Speaker 1: because Tampa's defense is pretty good as well. So I'm

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Speaker 1: concerned about Golfing Company not scoring enough. I'm concerned that

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Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay defense is good enough to cover the

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Speaker 1: four and a half point line. So because of that,

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Speaker 1: and you look at the point spreads and what Tampa

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Speaker 1: has been doing. You know, Tampa and the Rams both

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Speaker 1: aren't that great against the number. The Rams are five

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Speaker 1: and four against the number. Tampa is five and five

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Speaker 1: against the number. They were six point favorites against Carolina

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Speaker 1: on the road, they won by twenty three, but they

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Speaker 1: didn't cover. The two previous games against New Orleans and

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Speaker 1: against the New York Giants. Last time out against Seattle,

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Speaker 1: the Rams covered three point favorites. They won by seven,

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Speaker 1: but against Miami on the road, they didn't cover. They

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Speaker 1: lost the game by eleven. It wasn't very pretty. So

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Speaker 1: you've got this Jacqueline High Rams team on the road

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Speaker 1: where you know, they lost by eight on the road

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Speaker 1: to San Francisco, they lost by eleven on the road

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Speaker 1: to Miami. They lost by three on the road to Buffalo. Okay,

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Speaker 1: sensing a trend here. Okay, they're playing tight football games

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Speaker 1: on the road, but they're just finding ways to not cover.

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Speaker 1: They're losing and not covering. So I don't trust them

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Speaker 1: with the four and a half. However, and I know

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Speaker 1: not all you guys can do this, but look around.

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Speaker 1: William Hill allows it. If you have William Hill in

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Speaker 1: your area. Circus Sports. For me here in Vegas, it's

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Speaker 1: the same game teaser, all right. The forty eight is

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Speaker 1: live for the under. So if you just want to

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Speaker 1: bet the under, if you don't want to tease this.

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Speaker 1: I would take the under forty eight and call it

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Speaker 1: a day. But I'm gonna take the points here, and

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna tease it up to ten and a half.

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Speaker 1: I crossed the key number of ten, and I go

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Speaker 1: to up to fifty four. Fifty six is the key

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Speaker 1: number when it comes forty five and fifty six or

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Speaker 1: early the two numbers. I look at it when it

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Speaker 1: comes totals. But fifty six is fourteen points a quarter, okay,

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Speaker 1: over four quarters. I don't think that's gonna happen here.

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Speaker 1: I don't think Tampa's gonna score like that. I don't

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Speaker 1: think I know the Rams aren't gonna score like that

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Speaker 1: against Tampa's defense. They just don't have the weapons. So

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Speaker 1: I mean a touchdown every quarter for both teams, I

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Speaker 1: don't think so. So fifty four is a pretty good number.

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Speaker 1: It's not all the way to six are fifty six, obviously,

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Speaker 1: but it's close enough. Okay, So full unit minus one

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Speaker 1: twenty five same game teaser plus ten and a half

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Speaker 1: for the Rams fifty four, and I'm taking the under

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Speaker 1: here for Tampa and the Rams on Monday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: By the way, primetime games have been going under like crazy,

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Speaker 1: and everyone's gonna be on the underd Tonight's just to

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Speaker 1: just let you know. And if you looked at the numbers,

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Speaker 1: we talked about a ton on the live stream, I

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Speaker 1: told you the Broncos were live, all right. A bunch

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Speaker 1: of you guys went after me and said, Drew Locke sucks.

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Speaker 1: I agreed. Their offense sucks. I agreed, Matt. Why are

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Speaker 1: you taking the Broncos. Why would you think the Broncos

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Speaker 1: are gonna win that game? Well, one to two. The

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Speaker 1: offense is going on the road up against a decent

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Speaker 1: defense at altitude. We've seen it numerous times. Warm Weather

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Speaker 1: team in November December goes to Denver and they lose.

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Speaker 1: And that's exactly what happened. So ninety five percent of

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Speaker 1: the money was on the Dolphins. Everyone on the Dolphins

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Speaker 1: nothing zero, don't even they lose the game outright. Patriots

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Speaker 1: had a ton of public money on it. Nope, they

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Speaker 1: lost the game outright. Packers had a ton of public

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Speaker 1: money on it. Nope, lost the game outright. It was

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Speaker 1: not a good day for the public in terms of

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Speaker 1: everyone going to one side, but the pros also took

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Speaker 1: it pretty badly. As well. The pros got kicked in

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Speaker 1: the nuts pretty good too. On a couple of games

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Speaker 1: where you might think that they were all over it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the pros were all over Baltimore, Tennessee winds

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Speaker 1: up winning that game outright. The pros were all over Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: The pros, you know, hey, you got to give credit

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Speaker 1: to Taysom Hill, right, I mean, look, he played well.

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Speaker 1: They played really well. Big win for New Orleans, a

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Speaker 1: big win and a big cover for New Orleans. The

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Speaker 1: pros were all over Philadelphia, Cleveland wins and they're now

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Speaker 1: seven and three. So it was not a good day

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Speaker 1: for the public, but also not a good day for

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Speaker 1: the professionals. A wonderful day for the sports books. Yesterday

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Speaker 1: they cleaned up. So we're going same game teaser plus

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Speaker 1: ten and a half and fifty four on the under.

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Speaker 1: All right, three plays for you, all off of the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros cheat sheets, off Bettingpros dot com. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about Tampa and let's talk about Tom Brady. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about this offense a little bit with Brady and what

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Speaker 1: this offense has looked like with Tom Brady. At times,

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Speaker 1: It's looked good. Okay, at times, it's looked really good.

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Speaker 1: At other times it's been okay, Right, Tampa is scoring

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Speaker 1: about thirty points a game to the top ten in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. They're averaging about five point seven yards per play.

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Speaker 1: They're not running the ball very well, that's what we know. Okay,

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Speaker 1: they can throw the ball. But if you drop back

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Speaker 1: and throw the ball a ton against this Rams defense,

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Speaker 1: that means you were letting Aaron Donald go out after it.

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Speaker 1: And what do we know about Tom Brady. Tom Brady

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Speaker 1: does not like to be pressured. No quarterback does, but

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Speaker 1: Brady really doesn't like to be pressured. You're going to

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Speaker 1: see blitzes, you're going to see exotic looks, and Aaron

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Speaker 1: Donald's gonna go feast. Okay, it's a big problem for

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady. They only run the ball at four point

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Speaker 1: two yards per clip. That's not great. Even the passing

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Speaker 1: attack has been outstanding six point nine yards per pass

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Speaker 1: play for the temp Bay Bucks. Yes you've got Mike Evans,

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Speaker 1: and yes you've got God winning, Yes you've got Gronk

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Speaker 1: in the red zone and whatnot, but the Tempa Bay

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Speaker 1: offense is not all that explosive. Antonio Brown, Now, but

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Speaker 1: I got Tom Brady three hundred and five yards, and

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Speaker 1: I'm playing on the under here, we're playing the under.

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Speaker 1: I got this at Draft Kings at minus one twelve.

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady under three hundred and five yards passing going

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Speaker 1: up against Aaron Donald. I don't think they're gonna move

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Speaker 1: the football up and down the field. I don't think they.

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Speaker 1: I mean three hundred yards. That's a big number. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's a lot of I know they have to pass

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Speaker 1: to move the football, but Tom Brady under three hundred

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Speaker 1: and five yards passing is what we're gonna play here

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Speaker 1: for our first prop bet out a quarter unit number two.

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Speaker 1: I was kind of surprised at this number. So Scotty

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Speaker 1: Miller hasn't been getting a ton of action, all right,

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Speaker 1: But if you need outlets, if the pressure is getting

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Speaker 1: to Brady, you could look at Leonard Fournette for receptions.

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Speaker 1: You could look at Scotty Miller for receptions. But Scotty Miller,

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Speaker 1: his number is seven and a half yards. It's basically

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Speaker 1: one catch. If we get Scotty Miller to have one catch,

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Speaker 1: this number should hit Scotty Miller over seven and a

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Speaker 1: half yards receiving. At minus one twelve, the DraftKings. I

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Speaker 1: played it. It's one catch, you just it might not

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Speaker 1: come down to garbage time. I don't know, but Scotty

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Speaker 1: Miller's gonna be on the field. Brady likes him, we

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Speaker 1: know that he targets him. And seven point five yards

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Speaker 1: seems like a really low number to me. And again,

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Speaker 1: I know Scotty Miller's not put up the most you know,

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Speaker 1: explosive numbers, but he was at one point a decent

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Speaker 1: weapon for Brady, and at one point, you know, Brady

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Speaker 1: did like throwing the ball to him a lot. The

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Speaker 1: two have kind of cooled off a little bit. But

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Speaker 1: it is a little surprising to see seven point five

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Speaker 1: yards for Scotty Miller. That that seems pretty low for

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Speaker 1: a guy who has been you know, decent, not outstanding,

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Speaker 1: but decent. So at point twenty five units Scotty Miller

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Speaker 1: over seven and a half yards receiving at draftings. And

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Speaker 1: one more prop bet to go on, and this is

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Speaker 1: with Robert Woods with the La Rams last year. And

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying he's gonna duplicate this, but last year

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Speaker 1: against Tampa, Robert Woods went off, he had thirteen receptions

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Speaker 1: for one hundred and sixty four yards. He was targeted

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Speaker 1: fifteen times by Jared Goff. Now, is that a sure

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Speaker 1: fired that's gonna happen again? No, But I do think

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Speaker 1: it's tough to run on this Tampa defense. And so

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Speaker 1: if you're the Rams and you're like, Okay, how are

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Speaker 1: we gonna run? Right now? On paper, they're the number

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Speaker 1: one rushing defense at three point three yards per rush,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't know how much they're going to

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Speaker 1: be able to move the ball on the ground. That

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Speaker 1: means a lot of Jared Goff, and Jared Goff loves

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Speaker 1: throwing those swing passes, those bubble screens to Robert Woods.

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Speaker 1: So maybe that's how we get to four and a

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Speaker 1: half receptions. You can find it at bet MGM four

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Speaker 1: and a half receptions over four and a half receptions

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Speaker 1: is used to mind us one twenty one and I

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Speaker 1: played that. So I think Robert Woods will be a

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Speaker 1: big factor in the passing attack, and I think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a big factor in the dink and dunk

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Speaker 1: of this Rams offense. So I'm going over four and

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Speaker 1: a half receptions for Robert Woods tonight for the the

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Speaker 1: La Rams. So to recap our four plays going here tonight,

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Speaker 1: for US on a Monday night for Tampa hosting the Rams.

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Speaker 1: Same game teaser one unit ten and a half Rams

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Speaker 1: plus ten and a half fifty four under under fifty

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Speaker 1: four Same game teaser from US one twenty five for

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Speaker 1: one unit here on Monday Night. Tom Brady under three

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Speaker 1: hundred five yards passing that straight off the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet. Scottie Miiller over seven and a half yards receiving,

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Speaker 1: Robert Woods over four and a half receptions going tonight

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Speaker 1: on a Monday night football game tonight. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Parolt. You can follow me on Twitter at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt every morning including tomorrow morning. It is a

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Speaker 1: very good time to be part of the Deli Juice family.

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Speaker 1: I will talk to you on the Betting Pros Discord

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Speaker 1: Channel Bettingpros dot Com slast chat. To join us on

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Speaker 1: the Discord Channel Primetime game. You know where I'm gonna be.

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Speaker 1: I will talk to you later on tonight for Monday

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Speaker 1: Night football. I'm Att Parolt. To follow me on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matts every morning. The Daily Juice Podcast

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Speaker 1: off Bettingpros dot Com, present it by BETEMGM