1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:05,120 Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't 2 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: you agree? Five dollars? This is a raging up, but 3 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: they tackled hit one. Man. You're saying that humans need 4 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:22,600 Speaker 1: fantasy to make life bearable, humans need fantasy to be human. 5 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 1: My goodness, I don't mean speak. I suppose it's the 6 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:32,880 Speaker 1: best relentless refusing to give up. All right, hit that horn, 7 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 1: very bless the Welcome to the Fantasy Flex podcast for 8 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 1: week nine. This is our props podcast, presented by Prize Picks. 9 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: I am your host, Chris Raybond, joined as always by 10 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:49,639 Speaker 1: my dude, Sean Kerner. Sean, you carried us last week 11 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 1: five and zero, though I went three to two, so 12 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,279 Speaker 1: eight and two. You know if people tailed us, but 13 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: you know you're carrying us this year, So I gotta 14 00:00:57,280 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: I gotta get back on I gotta get back on 15 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: track here. But how you doing? Yeah? Five and oh? 16 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: Last week, let's keep it up. I think I took. 17 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 2: Four overs, yeah, and you know I'm sticking with overs 18 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:10,199 Speaker 2: again this week. 19 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:13,040 Speaker 1: So I feel like you you really went one and 20 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: four because process over results, but. 21 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:20,479 Speaker 2: You actually seriously like I like, I never felt good. 22 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 2: I never feel good about taking overs. So you know, 23 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 2: when I take an over it, I really like the number. 24 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 2: That's That's what it comes down to you, because I 25 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 2: might do I think unders are the way to go, 26 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 2: but I think again this week you're gonna see I'm 27 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 2: going to be leaning towards the overs here, so watch out. 28 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: I mean listen. The people love the overs, like that's yeah. 29 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: People like I, you know, I just I do some 30 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 1: other work and they tell us, you know, like if 31 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: you can find it over, find it over for us 32 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: before you know, you look at the unders, because like, 33 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: people just love you. Guys out there just left a 34 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: bit overs. We get it. But uh yeah, I'll keep 35 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: doing what I do. You keep doing what you're doing. 36 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: Hopefully we end up kind of know at the end 37 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: of this week, yes, love it. We will give our 38 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: top ten props of the week. We'll start off though, 39 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: with the Sunday Night Showdown DFS Breakdown. We got the Titans, 40 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: we got the Rams. Sean Obviously the big news here, 41 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 1: Derrick Henry is out probably for the season, so he's 42 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: not an option in this captain spot. That means that 43 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 1: we probably looking at either AJ Brown or somebody anybody. 44 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: Everybody on the Rams who do you like it in 45 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 1: the captain spot? 46 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,679 Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I always say I like playing a wide 47 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 2: receiver in the captain slot. So Cooper Cup is certainly 48 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 2: a no brainer candidate for the captain slot for this game. 49 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 2: And you know Robert Woods is dealing with the foot injury, 50 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 2: so they might lean on Cooper Cup even more. I'm 51 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 2: assuming he'll be chalk in the captain slot. So yeah, 52 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 2: AJ Brown on the other side, I'll be interested to 53 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 2: see how he does without Derrick Henry because you know, 54 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,079 Speaker 2: the Titans offense really banks on the play action pass 55 00:02:56,160 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 2: and no receiver relies on play action you know, plays 56 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 2: than Aj Brown. So while he could see increase volume, 57 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 2: we might not see the insane efficiency from him. So 58 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 2: but certainly he's another candidate for the captain slot. I think, however, 59 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 2: the probably optimal captain play this week is Darryl Henderson, 60 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 2: just because he is due for a monster game. I mean, 61 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 2: they've had some blowouts the past few weeks where they 62 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:24,799 Speaker 2: put a lid on him and they didn't really need 63 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 2: to use them much in the fourth quarter. 64 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: This should be a positive game. Script. 65 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 2: You know, the Rams are some point favorites, but I 66 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,079 Speaker 2: think the Titans will keep it close enough where Henderson's 67 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 2: going to play the entire game. I just love his 68 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 2: rushing and receiving usage. Obviously has the touch on upside, 69 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 2: and it's he's a good leverage play against you know, 70 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 2: both Cooper Cup and A J. 71 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: Brown. 72 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 2: So I think Henderson and the captain slot is probably 73 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 2: where I'm going to go with this. 74 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: But what are you thinking? Yeah, I like, you know, 75 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: I think A J. Brown is still Like I'm not 76 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: worried too much about his efficiency only because you know 77 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: this Rams team scheme wise, Uh, they're going to play 78 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: a lot his own coverage. So it's like like, yes, 79 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 1: they're gonna obviously roll coverage in his direction, but it's 80 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: not like they're just going to have a manned up 81 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 1: double team, you know, safety over the top every time. 82 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: It's like if they want to kind of like they'll 83 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: they'll know what the Rams are gonna do. It's not 84 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: a hard defense to prepare for. It's just a really 85 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 1: talented defense. At this point. They just got von Miller, 86 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: But I think I expect the Rams to do well 87 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: on offense, and without Derek Henry, you got to think 88 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 1: the pace will increase a little bit because I expect, 89 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 1: you know, a few more incompletions, a few a few 90 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: less runs from from Tennessee. So I do like Brown. 91 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: On the other side, I agree, I think Cooper Cup 92 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: is an obvious choice. I would I would still play 93 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 1: any of the three RAMS receivers along with Daryl Henderson 94 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 1: as long as Woods is great. I think Van Jefferson 95 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: is sneaky in the caps of spot because when you 96 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 1: look at the RAMS routes run per drop back, all 97 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 1: three Cup, Woods, and Van Jefferson are in the nineties 98 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 1: in terms of percentage. And that's that kind of speaks 99 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 1: to them releasing Deshaun Jackson. You just couldn't get on 100 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: the field. And top of that, not only did they 101 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 1: wave Jackson, but to to Atwell, who is like the 102 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: logical Jackson replacement, you know, rookie, he also got hurt 103 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: and he's out. So Rams are kind of thin here. 104 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 1: They signed JJ Cosky, I think to play special teams 105 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 1: and be active as like another receiver. But I think 106 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 1: you're gonna see Jefferson cut Woods get like close to 107 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: one hundred percent. You know, maybe Bennett's Scarronic mixes in 108 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: for a play or two, but I expect a lot 109 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: of van Jefferson. So he's kind of the the the 110 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: the sneaky guy. But I like, I like all the receivers. 111 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 1: I agree with you and uh and yeah, it's just 112 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: like the Rams play a ton of ZWN. So it's 113 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: interesting because, like we talked about McNichols, Like, what are 114 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: your thoughts on him? Is he like I I know 115 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: people are probably gonna think about him in the captain 116 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: spot just because he's not gonna be super expensive. A 117 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 1: lot of people think he's gonna be the number one back. 118 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: What do you think about him? Do you still think 119 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 1: that he's kind of not gonna be like it doesn't 120 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: have a high enough ceiling even in this game with 121 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: you know, Peterson and Beyontay Forman probably still getting ready 122 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: to kind of take a bigger workload. Yeah. 123 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,280 Speaker 2: No, I think if you were to play McNichols, this 124 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 2: would be the game because you know, the Titans are 125 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 2: plus seven seven and a half, so this should be 126 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 2: a negative game script and he I think he's going 127 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 2: to be the past catching back for the rest of 128 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 2: the season. I don't think Adrian Pearson Foreman are gonna 129 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 2: and you know, steal much work. 130 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: From from McNichols. 131 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 2: There so it is a perfect game script from them, 132 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 2: and he might see a few more carries than he 133 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 2: normally would because he's the only Titans running back that 134 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 2: knows the playbook, so it could be a big game 135 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 2: from him. I'm just curious that maybe you might have 136 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 2: an idea, but like, do you think he's going to 137 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 2: be pretty highly rostered here, or you know, if he's sneaky, 138 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 2: Like I haven't been able to figure that out quite yet, 139 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 2: but I. 140 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 1: Think rostered, but not necessarily in the captain spot because 141 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 1: oh yeah, this is one of those matchups where you 142 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: have a lot of expensive guys between the Rams and 143 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: then you know a J Brown on the other side, 144 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: So I think he's sneakier in the captain spot. You 145 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: look at the Rams, they they play a ton of 146 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: zone like they actually play zone at the highest rate 147 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: in the league, and the Titans against zone coverage, it's 148 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,679 Speaker 1: AJ Brown weeds them in targets and then with twenty 149 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: and then twenty six excuse me, according to Pro Football Focus, 150 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: and then the next two Derrick Henry with sixteen and 151 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: Jeremy McNichols with fifteen, So the backs have combined, you know, 152 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: collectively for more targets versus zone than aj Brown, So 153 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: like this could be like a ten catch game for 154 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: McNichols if they get like. 155 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 2: Like like we saw against the Jets, I mean, had 156 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 2: eight catches for seventy four yards. So certainly you know 157 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 2: the game script, the you know the way the Rams 158 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 2: play defense. It does set up for McNichols game. But again, 159 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 2: the decision I'm gonna, you know, go with McNichols is 160 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 2: like will he be highly rostered or not? And I 161 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: think he will, but I think he's warranted. So if 162 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 2: there's one game to take McNichols even though he's chock, 163 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 2: it's probably this one. All right? 164 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: What about for dfsch coos? Do you like what a 165 00:07:58,040 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: lower down? Yeah? 166 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 2: So I have a few you already called it. But 167 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 2: Van Jefferson once they said they were going to trade 168 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 2: away to Shawn Jackson and he's basically done there, I 169 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 2: moved Van Jefferson way up. Like you said, he's going 170 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 2: to be averaging over ninety five percent routes run per 171 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 2: dropback going forward. 172 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: So love Van Jefferson. 173 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 2: Especially if Robert Woods is limited in any way, they're 174 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 2: going to lean on Jefferson even more. So love him. 175 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 2: You know the Titan side. I think we sill need 176 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 2: to see what's up with Hulio Jones, Like who knows 177 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 2: what's gonna happen with him? But if he sits again, 178 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 2: it's just been a moving target behind AJ Brown. But 179 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 2: last week Marcus Johnson led all non AJ Brown receivers 180 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 2: and routes run. He only caught one ball for eight 181 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 2: yards I think, so he wasn't productive that he be 182 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 2: a sneaky play if he sees that much playing time 183 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 2: again here. And then Jeff Swain has now overtaken Anthony 184 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 2: Ferkster as the Titans' main pass catching tight end, so 185 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 2: he's a guy might sprinkle on there. He had fifty 186 00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 2: seven percent routes run per drop up last week, cashing 187 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 2: in with four catches twenty three yards. 188 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: And a touchdown. 189 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 2: So if you can come anywhere close to that for 190 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 2: the show on Slate, he'll be worth every penny. And 191 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 2: then you mentioned about Ben Scaronick is probably the flyer 192 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 2: for this matchup because, like you said, you know, Deshaun 193 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 2: Jackson's gone to to Otwells on the ir Robert Woods 194 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 2: is banged up, so certainly Scronick could see some playing time. 195 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 2: He saw twenty percent routes run per dropback last week, 196 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 2: certainly because of the blowout against the Texans, but you know, 197 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 2: he'd be the guy that would step up if anything 198 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 2: goes wrong with Woods or you know, even if Cooper 199 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 2: Cup or Van Jefferson have an in game setback or something. 200 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 2: So Scronik's going to be an interesting flyer that'll have 201 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 2: on at least one team. 202 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting the Titans, according to Football Outsiders, against 203 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: non number one, number two wide receivers, they're allowing one 204 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 1: hundred and seven point two schedule adjusted receiving yards per game. 205 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: That's most in the league by over twenty yards. So 206 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 1: Van Jefferson, Ben Scaronick, I mean, maybe Jacob Harris even 207 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:03,679 Speaker 1: gets a couple snaps out wide. You know, he's kind 208 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: of a hybrid like wide receiver tight end type of guy. 209 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 1: He got he got I think he got routes for 210 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: the first time last week. So he's another guy to watch. 211 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 1: You know, the Titans have been really good against tight ends, 212 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 1: which is interesting. There number five in DVOA and they're 213 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: allowing the third fewest schedule justin yards per game, just 214 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: thirty three point fours. I mean, you know, we didn't 215 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: really mention Higbee. He's obviously always a threat for a touchdown, 216 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 1: but it'll probably need a touchdown to hit value because 217 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:35,439 Speaker 1: they just haven't been giving up production to tight ends. 218 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: And then I think you got to watch the running 219 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 1: backs too. I mean, if Adrian Peterson is not fully ready, 220 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 1: Deonta Foreman would probably be that Derrick Henry Roll. So 221 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: I'm assuming that he would be super cheap because he 222 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 1: was in the system last year. So you know, like 223 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 1: it's kind of like with the Ravens, where it's it 224 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: could be eventually we get up to like Peterson doing 225 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 1: you know, getting like the majority of the work, but 226 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: this week it could be like all of these different veterans, 227 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: and I wouldn't be surprised if Forman ended up leading 228 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: them and carry. So he's a guy to watch. You know, 229 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 1: he has to get called up first, as does Peterson. 230 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: But you know, as we record this on Thursday, I 231 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: just want to throw that out there, all right, that 232 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: makes sense, But that's going to do it for our 233 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 1: showdown DFS Breakdown, Let's get into our top props for 234 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 1: week number nine, presented by Prize Picks. Sean. Start us 235 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: off with your quarterback prop. 236 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 2: So I'm going with Joe Burrow over two hundred and 237 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 2: sixty five and half passing yards against the Browns. This 238 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 2: Browns defense is a pass funnel one. They're very good 239 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,319 Speaker 2: against the run. They ranked third in d v A 240 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 2: against the run, and they you know, they're pretty weak 241 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,199 Speaker 2: against the pass. They ranked twenty fifth in DVOA against 242 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 2: the pass. So if the Bengals had any sense, they 243 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 2: would lean on Joe Burrow and their stud wide receiver 244 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 2: Trio and Jamar Chase, T Higgins and Tyler Boyd and 245 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 2: even cj Uzoma. So I just think just based on 246 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 2: volume alone, Burrow is a good bet to go over 247 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 2: this number. So love the over. And I'm projecting them 248 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 2: closer to eighty two. So I'm like fifteen twenty yards 249 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 2: over this number. So I think there's a lot of 250 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 2: value here. 251 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, we Jamar Chase has to get his one hundred 252 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:15,719 Speaker 1: and then yeah, clearly, and then everyone else. Yeah. I 253 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: think I think Tyler Boyd kind of rebounds here and 254 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: has it has a good game as well. So yeah, 255 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 1: I like Burrow. And earlier in the week, I think 256 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: we talked and I thought, you know, maybe I was 257 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 1: kind of looking at the Bengals because I thought maybe 258 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: they would have some positive game scrip. But I actually 259 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: think the Browns have a good shot in this game. 260 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 1: So I actually like Burrows over even more because I 261 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 1: do think the Browns will finally score some points. You have, 262 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: you know, Baker with no Odell, which is the peak Baker, 263 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: peak Baker. So weird to say that, Yeah, so Browns. 264 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: The Browns might actually put up a pretty good fight here. 265 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: There's no real home field, you know, it's an interstate matchups, 266 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 1: even though it's in Cincinnati. It shouldn't be that that crazy, 267 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 1: all right. For my quarterback prop, I'll give you one 268 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: over this week or other unders, but I'll give you 269 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:01,079 Speaker 1: one over, and it's Matthew Stafford over two hundred and 270 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:03,679 Speaker 1: ninety five and a half passing yards against the Titans. 271 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,719 Speaker 1: I'm projecting this over three hundred. Matthew Stafford's been over 272 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 1: this in five of eight games. And you know he's 273 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: doing this even though he's getting pulled a waiting games 274 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: here and there because the Rams are just rolling over teams. 275 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: But this game is still it's a touchdown spread, so 276 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: it should be a little closer. Again, I think the 277 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 1: Titans aren't gonna be you know, this team and that 278 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 1: that's like super run heavy, and you know, I think 279 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 1: there's gonna be more incompletions in this game, stop the quack. 280 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 1: So I think Stafford will have ample chance to do 281 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: work against this Titans defense that you know, it's they're 282 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 1: still a little bit banged up and shaky in the secondary. 283 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: And I mean Sean McVay is out here living his 284 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 1: best life. Like I was looking at like almost every 285 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 1: elite quarterback Mahomes, Allen, Lamar Jackson, like every quarterback you 286 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: look at, their QBR has gone down this year from 287 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 1: last year. You know, there was no fans, it was 288 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: just you know, it was easy. Life was easier for 289 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 1: quarterbacks to west Hold this year, Like everyone's going down 290 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: except Matthew Stafford. He's like his QB are is like 291 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 1: up to like career high levels. He's like leading the 292 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: league and all these passing efficiency categories and he's been 293 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 1: over this number in five of eight games. So love 294 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford here over two hundred ninety five and a half. 295 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm projecting this at three ten for a 296 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 2: lot of the same reasons. I think the Titans are 297 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 2: going to be in higher scoring games, like you said 298 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 2: more incompletions high, you know, faster paced without Derrick Henry 299 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 2: and Matthew Stafford's been just gamescript proof. It doesn't matter 300 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 2: if they blow a team out, he still goes over 301 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 2: three hundred yards. So this should be a closer matchup 302 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 2: where he throws even more so lovely over. 303 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: Here as well, averaging three ten median of three twelve 304 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 1: and a half. Though, yeah, he's he's up there were 305 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: going for your running back prop. 306 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 2: So I'm going with another over here, and that's Ezekiel 307 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 2: Elliott to go over sixty and a half rushing yards 308 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 2: against the Broncos. You know, he struggled last week without Dak, 309 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 2: which seems to be a trend with him. Whenever Dak's 310 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 2: hunder center, he tends to struggle. So Dak back and 311 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 2: you know the Cowboys are They're nine and a half 312 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 2: point home favorites, so should have a positive game script. 313 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 2: I think Zeke's gonna get back on track. And this 314 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 2: Denver defense tends to struggle against the run. They ranked 315 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 2: twenty seventh in DdO against run. You know they recently 316 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 2: lost linebacker Alexander Johnson to the are they trade away 317 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 2: Von Miller, so this could be an easier matchup for Zeke. 318 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 2: And he's gone over this number four out of five 319 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 2: games with Dak under center and the Cowboys win. So 320 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 2: you know, I like that trend to continue this week, 321 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 2: and I'm going over here. 322 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm about seventy two seventy two yards, so I'm 323 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: over this one as well. I think the Broncos maybe 324 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 1: be able to stay in this game, but not because 325 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 1: of their defense. I think their offense has been a 326 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: little better than expected. I think they might be able 327 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: to keep it close. But that's perfect for Zeke. That 328 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: means he's involved the whole way, all right. For my 329 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: first running back prop for Week nine, I'm going with 330 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: Boston Scott under forty four and a half rushing yards 331 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: against the Chargers. I'm projecting this at thirty six even. 332 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 1: You know, Scott has kind of emerges that lead back 333 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: over Kenny Gainwell, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. 334 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: He's still splitting work three ways in his two in 335 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: this two games, is kind of that pseudo lead back. 336 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 1: He's he got thirty one and thirty seven percent of 337 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: the carries, so you know it's not there's a lot 338 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 1: of different ways that this could go wrong. Number one 339 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: being Philadelphia is an underdog at home against the Chargers, 340 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 1: and I know the Chargers have been shaky these last 341 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 1: couple of weeks. I mean, I bet against them last 342 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: week against the Patriots. That wasn't a super popular pick. 343 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: But this week I think the Chargers roll like this 344 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: is the perfect defense, you know, on the other side 345 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: to get right for Justin Herbert after facing two man, 346 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 1: heavy man coverage defenses. Eagles play pretty much all zoned. 347 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 1: They're not hard to plan for, so I think the 348 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: Eagles are gonna get behind in this game. They're gonna 349 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 1: have to put up points. Unlike last week when the 350 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 1: Lions scored six points they had they were blanked at halftime. 351 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: I believe, you know, and if that's the case, you're 352 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 1: gonna see Kenny gain will. Even with the explosion rushing 353 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: for the backs last week, the Eagles are still averaging 354 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 1: under seventeen running back Harry's per game, lowest in the NFL. 355 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: So this Boston Scott line is about ten yards too 356 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: high for me, just because I know the matchup is good. 357 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 1: But with running backs, it's all about volume. It's not 358 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: just matchup. You have a lot of other things to consider, 359 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 1: like game script and snap rate, and we just can't 360 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 1: view those positively for Boston Scott in this spot. 361 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm projecting am at thirty six as well. I 362 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 2: think you said that was your projection. This is going 363 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,360 Speaker 2: to be, you know, a murky hot hand approach, three 364 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 2: way running back committee. And last week, I mean Scott 365 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 2: looked great. He started the game, he had the hot hand, 366 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 2: and then they blew him out, so they pulled him. 367 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 2: I don't think he had a single touch in the 368 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 2: fourth quarter. That was Kenneth Gagwell time. But yeah, this 369 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,959 Speaker 2: is a volt situation where I think his line is 370 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 2: inflated based on the game script last week. And yeah, 371 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,439 Speaker 2: they're going to be trailing and Jalen Hurts is going 372 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 2: to get his He only had fifteen percent of the 373 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 2: total rushing attempts last week. It's gonna go way up, 374 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 2: closer to forty percent like we've seen for much of 375 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 2: this season. So yeah, Scott's and under for me as well, Yeah. 376 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:11,640 Speaker 1: I got it. I'm taking the Brandon Staley approach. It's 377 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: like I'm daring you to run it like you. That's 378 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: how I look at these props. It's like, all right, 379 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: I dare the egos to run it again, Like enough 380 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,399 Speaker 1: time to get Scott over this number? Where are you 381 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,400 Speaker 1: going for your for your second running back? Prep going 382 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: over again? This is my last over. I promise Najie 383 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,879 Speaker 1: Harris over seventy six and a half rushing yards against 384 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 1: the Bears. He should see a massive workload again this week. 385 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 1: He has literally zero competition behind him. He just gets 386 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,360 Speaker 1: insane workloads. He's seen twenty three plus carries in each 387 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 1: of the past three games, and he's cleared this number 388 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: in each of the past three games. And this this 389 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 1: Bears rundy hasn't been that great this year. They ranked 390 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 1: twenty fourth and DVA. You know, the Steelers are six 391 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 1: point home favorites. The offensive line has looked a lot better. 392 00:18:56,240 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: So I'm projecting Harris around you know, twenty three, twenty 393 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 1: four carries for you know eighty that's a lot of carries. 394 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, what do you haven't projected for because like eighteen eighteen? 395 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 2: Oh my god, can I can I make a side 396 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 2: bet with you for over eighteen carries. 397 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: Please and a half? Yeah, the extra half. That's what 398 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:18,640 Speaker 1: I'm confident about. 399 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 2: It's it's the yards per attempt that I guess is 400 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,879 Speaker 2: where this prop comes into play. But either I'm projecting 401 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,119 Speaker 2: him for over eighty yards. I just think it is 402 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 2: a really high floor right now, So love this over. 403 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,479 Speaker 1: I mean to be fair, he's gone. He's had twenty 404 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,679 Speaker 1: three or more in three games, but sixteen or less 405 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: in four games. So it's not like my eighteen projection 406 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 1: is crazy. Like it's kind of in line with his 407 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,959 Speaker 1: season long. Yeah, trending. He is trending up. 408 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's also with the positive game script 409 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 2: or are you referring to those three games the Steelers lost. 410 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 1: I can't believe they only lost three games. 411 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I know right now, that's that's assuming assuming six point. 412 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 1: Yes, yes, is like rational. 413 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 2: That's why I kind of I like his carries to 414 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 2: go over twenty again here. 415 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't protected lower. This is interesting. I haven't 416 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: protected about eighteen for seventy two, so I'm I'm a 417 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,479 Speaker 1: little under he's you know, he's been at sixty two 418 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:19,680 Speaker 1: or less and four of the seven and sixteen carries 419 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 1: and west and four to seven, so I know he's 420 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 1: trending up. I haven't really like, I'm kind of just 421 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,639 Speaker 1: going I know, you know, they have McFarland active now, 422 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 1: so they have three other backs to kind. 423 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 2: Of are you projecting any one of those backs get 424 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 2: more than one carry? 425 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 1: I don't think so, but I have I have Harris 426 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: at eighty five percent carries, which his season averages eighty 427 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: three percent, So I do like I have him. He's 428 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,360 Speaker 1: my RB three, Like I'm not like it's just one 429 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: of those weeks where I think I think his I 430 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 1: have him gett like five receptions, you know too, So 431 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 1: that's that's kind of driving it. 432 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 2: I think carries we're very similar approach here. I have 433 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:57,120 Speaker 2: the Steelers with twenty nine total team carries time. That's 434 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 2: probably where yeah, I'm a little deference, yep, that's for 435 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 2: the differences. I'm just projecting that based on the projected 436 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 2: game script. So if the Bears win this game, I'm 437 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 2: probably gonna lose this prop. But that's kind of the 438 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 2: fun in this, right is running back props are very 439 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 2: much tied with game script. I'm believing the six point 440 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,919 Speaker 2: spread here is somewhat accurate, So that's kind of what 441 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 2: I'm leaning on here, all right. 442 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 1: For my second running back prop, I'll go under Josh 443 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: Jacobs fifty six and a half at the Giants, I 444 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 1: ever projected at about fifty one and a half, so 445 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: about five yards about to carry carried a half of 446 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 1: value here for me. And the real reason I like 447 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 1: this prop besides the fact that my projection is weller, 448 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 1: is he's been under this in all five of his games. 449 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 1: So I listen. I know Henry Ruggs is no longer 450 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,959 Speaker 1: with the team. Maybe they run more, but you know, 451 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 1: remember John Druden actually didn't like Kenyan Drake this Bisacia 452 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 1: seems to like him a bit more. So. I just 453 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 1: don't see how we can take anything button under for 454 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,160 Speaker 1: Jacobs when he hasn't cleared the number all year, when 455 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 1: he's averaging just three point four yards per carry, so 456 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: his career averages rookie year four point eight, year two 457 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: three point nine, this year three point four. That's a 458 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: troubling trend. He you know, he's he got six carries 459 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 1: in the last game in a game day won by eleven. 460 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: I know he got hurt, so you know, he's still 461 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 1: a little banged up, so we don't know exactly, and 462 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:31,239 Speaker 1: he's this has been a trend with him. You know, 463 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 1: he's been getting banged up in game in a lot 464 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,120 Speaker 1: of these games, and so you have Jalen Rashard back, 465 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: you have Drake potentially to take more work. It's just 466 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,639 Speaker 1: another one of those volatile situations that it's kind of 467 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 1: like Miami earlier in the year, where it was like 468 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,360 Speaker 1: the minute, like you know, you saw like a Gaskin 469 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 1: prop or a Brown prop. The right bet was almost 470 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: always under because you just don't know. So Jacobs hasn't 471 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: cleared this number yet betting he falls short again under 472 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 1: fifty six and a half for Josh Jacobs. 473 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it, and I was gonna mention, Yeah, 474 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,440 Speaker 2: the coaching change, it could mix things up. Ken and 475 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,159 Speaker 2: Drake could be more involved, which we've already seen with 476 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 2: the new coaching regime. And also Jacob's receiving usage has 477 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 2: gone up. That might be something that we see with 478 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,240 Speaker 2: the coaching change as well. As you know that Gruden 479 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 2: seems to limit Jacob's in the passing game, but we've 480 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:16,680 Speaker 2: seen that go up, so it could you know, eat 481 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,639 Speaker 2: into his Russia attempts here. So I'm projecting this to 482 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:20,399 Speaker 2: go under as well. 483 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:22,679 Speaker 1: All right, where are you going with your first receiving 484 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: prep for week night? All right? 485 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,199 Speaker 2: So actually I have one more over I lied, but 486 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 2: this one isn't under. This one isn't under. I have 487 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,160 Speaker 2: to go with my under on an elite player again 488 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 2: this week, and that's Travis Kelcey under seventy eight and 489 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,640 Speaker 2: a half her senior yards. And I'm not panicking too 490 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 2: much over the Chiefs. You know, I'm still projecting Kelsey 491 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 2: as my tight end one in fantasy. Still think he's 492 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 2: a beast. However, this Chief's offense is changing a little bit. 493 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 2: And Mahomes completed fifteen passes behind the lion of scrimmage 494 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 2: last week, which I guess was the most by any 495 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,880 Speaker 2: quarterback since twenty sixteen. So you know, defenses are sort 496 00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 2: of daring Patrick mahomesod, you know, dump it off and 497 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 2: just take the easy gains. And this could be you know, 498 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 2: eating into Kelsey's yards in the past few weeks. And 499 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 2: you know, he hasn't gotten over this number once or no, 500 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 2: he's actually only clear of this number once in the 501 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,199 Speaker 2: past five games, so he's been trending down. You know, 502 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 2: I'm still projecting him over seven yards cloture a to 503 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 2: seventy two and a half, but I just think it's 504 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 2: too this is too high, and his ceiling has been 505 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 2: a lot lower lately, So that's why I'm willing to target. 506 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,239 Speaker 2: I never like going under on Kelsey, but I am 507 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:31,159 Speaker 2: going to do it this week. 508 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 1: I mean for this to be you're under. That takes 509 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 1: some kahonas, but I haven't. I haven't projected at a 510 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 1: nice sixty nine yards, nice receiving in this matchup. So 511 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:43,679 Speaker 1: I will say the one thing that does scare me 512 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,439 Speaker 1: is I think got Peyton and Eli were talking about 513 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 1: how they spoke to Mahomes and he was saying that 514 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,720 Speaker 1: he was going to kind of because Tyreek Hill was struggling, 515 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,879 Speaker 1: you know, Mahomes is just going to look for him more. So, 516 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 1: like I just worry that, like Kelsey had like a 517 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 1: terrible game. They kept panning to him on the side 518 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 1: sideline and he looked very sad. So I just worried that, 519 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: like Mahomes is gonna be like, okay, you want me 520 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: to throw underneath five yard five yard like past to 521 00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 1: Kelsey like over and over and let him like break tackle. 522 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:12,240 Speaker 1: So that that's the only thing that worries me. Like 523 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 1: I definitely wouldn't take the other in his receptions in 524 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 1: this game. I'll say that like yard age he could 525 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 1: still get ten catches and come short of this. But 526 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,360 Speaker 1: I do think Patrick Mahomes will look for him after 527 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,880 Speaker 1: that just miserable game in prime time. Yeah. 528 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 2: No, you don't need to like give me reasons to 529 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,880 Speaker 2: worry about going on a Kelsey under. I already get that, 530 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 2: Like it's already very worrisome. So I believe I understand. 531 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 2: Hopefully hopefully we see another heavy Derek Gore game would 532 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 2: be Oh. 533 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,119 Speaker 1: No, didn't you tell me to bet Derek Williams overcarries? 534 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 1: Is what all of Twitter probably said to your DMS. 535 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:47,400 Speaker 1: Oh too soon. 536 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 2: I got everything right about that, except for Derek Gore 537 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 2: getting fifty of the rush attempts that I just I 538 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 2: just missed on that. 539 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 1: It happens, man, It was a blind spot for every 540 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: for alluding the Giants. The Giants probably. Yeah, he was like, well, 541 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 1: why am I carrying the football? What is this end zone? 542 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:11,040 Speaker 1: I've never seen this? All right, I'll join you then 543 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 1: in going with a in a week receiver pass catcher under, 544 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 1: and I'll go DJ Moore under seventy one and a 545 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 1: half receiving yards. I've said it before and I'll say 546 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:20,679 Speaker 1: it again. There's a few things he like to do 547 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: on this podcast one is target unders against the Saints 548 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 1: running the ball, the Bucks running the ball, the Patriots 549 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 1: with number one receivers, They're gonna make you play left handed. 550 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 1: They're number four in DVA against number one wide receivers. 551 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 1: And on top of that, Matt Rule has explicitly stated 552 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 1: that Carolina has to run the ball now, like he's 553 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:47,159 Speaker 1: lost all faith in Sam Donald and like this is 554 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 1: the defense that made Sam Donald see ghosts. So no 555 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 1: way Carolina comes into this game with any intention of 556 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 1: throwing the ball voluminously. And then on the other side, 557 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 1: Bill Belichick's gonna come in with every intention of taking 558 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,480 Speaker 1: out DJ Moore. And because like I'm sure Belichick's probably 559 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:06,879 Speaker 1: wants Robby Anderson to get like every single target in 560 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:08,879 Speaker 1: this game. He like he might. He might, he might 561 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,080 Speaker 1: leave him, you know, usually single cover guys. He might 562 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 1: just like non cover Robbie Anderson, like just leave him 563 00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 1: wide open and see if he can catch a touchdown, 564 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 1: because that's how bad Robby Anderson has been. Carolina ran 565 00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 1: at forty seven times last week, so I have more 566 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 1: projected in the mid sixties. I think there's about sixty 567 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 1: yards of value on this profit seventy one and a half, 568 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 1: so under seventy one and a half for DJ Moore. 569 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,720 Speaker 2: Didn't you attack DJ Moore's under last week as well? 570 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,520 Speaker 2: So yeah, obviously that hit. Yeah, I think he had 571 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 2: fifty nine yards. Yeah, it was more same line. 572 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, and DeVante Smith and Smith for different reason hit 573 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:44,920 Speaker 1: and then more hit. I mean, I guess both kind 574 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,600 Speaker 1: of the same reason. They were both in control of 575 00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,919 Speaker 1: the games in those games, I think, And I think 576 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 1: CAROLINEA is a sneaky play this week. I don't think 577 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 1: they'll like roll over against New England by any means. 578 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 1: I just you know, you know what Belichick's gonna do 579 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 1: in this one. 580 00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 2: Stuff right, And like you said, they're gonna lean on 581 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 2: the run heavily again this week. And let me ask, 582 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,880 Speaker 2: are you projecting PJ. Walker or Sam Donald starting? And 583 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 2: does it matter? 584 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,200 Speaker 1: It doesn't matter too much. Both of them are bad. 585 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 1: I mean PJ. Walker almost lost the cover end of 586 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 1: the game for in like the one staff he was 587 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,679 Speaker 1: in there for the Panthers last week. But I have 588 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,639 Speaker 1: Donald right now at eighty five and in Walker at fifteen. 589 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 1: I think Donald did practice so trending toward playing. But 590 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 1: you know, I know Halloween was last week, but there 591 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 1: might be some ghosts out there yet again in Carolina. 592 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, man, remember how good PJ Walker was an XFL. 593 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:40,719 Speaker 2: I feel like you already forgot about the XFL. 594 00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 1: But man, he was good. Oh yeah, I forgot about 595 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 1: it because I like I had just like you. You 596 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,200 Speaker 1: took Carolina on convinced me right, yeah, yeah, yeah that 597 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,680 Speaker 1: was my spread pick. Oh yes, okay, so yeah, we 598 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 1: gotta hurt it. I'll finish the story. So I have Carolina. 599 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 1: I have Carolina as well, and I mean they ran 600 00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,959 Speaker 1: Sam Donald. He gets he gets with up they were 601 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 1: un him again and gets lit up again, like ridiculously 602 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 1: on a designed run. Then p J. Walker comes in 603 00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: and almost throws the game away, Like I almost threw 604 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,320 Speaker 1: up because I already had I was dealing with like 605 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 1: sweating Pittsburgh who instead of like I had him, I 606 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 1: think plus four and a half, instead of kicking a 607 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 1: field goal to get within like a couple of points, 608 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 1: they go for a fake and get the kicker knocked out. 609 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 1: So like I was, Walker maybe sick last week. Let's 610 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 1: just be clear here, this isn't You're not betting against 611 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: DJ Moore. We love Dj Moore. This is a better 612 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,959 Speaker 1: against Sam Darnold or PJ. Walker, whoever they throw out 613 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 1: that it's a better check, I'll put it that way, 614 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,160 Speaker 1: or that let's just go that. Let's just go down 615 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: round where we're positive people here on Bill Belichick, exactly right. 616 00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 1: Let's uh, let's finish it up. Where you going with 617 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 1: your final receiving under for this week? Prop See, I 618 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,080 Speaker 1: see how much I think unders I can't sleep positive? 619 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,880 Speaker 2: Oh well, I apologize, this is another over, So I'm 620 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 2: going I'm betying my boy. I feel like I bang 621 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 2: on the table like I love T Higgins, just can't 622 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 2: get him. So I'm going over four and a half 623 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 2: receptions for T Higgins this week. This correlates with my 624 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 2: Joe Burrow projection as well. You know, I'm fifteen to 625 00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 2: twenty yards over the market with Joe Burrow, so naturally, 626 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,160 Speaker 2: I'm projecting T Higgins for about five point two receptions here. 627 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,000 Speaker 2: So you know his catch rates been around fifty nine 628 00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 2: percent this season. I'm projecting that to be closer to 629 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 2: sixty five percent with his A dot going forward, so 630 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 2: I think he'll see some positive aggression there. Plus, he's 631 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 2: been the Bengals pass catcher that benefits the most from 632 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 2: zone coverage. So you know, playing a team like the 633 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,360 Speaker 2: Browns that run more zone coverage, I think T Higgins 634 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 2: even more reason to be bullsh on him here. So 635 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 2: just I can't get enough T Higgins these past couple 636 00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 2: of weeks, So going tea against over four and a 637 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 2: half receptions here, Yeah, I like. 638 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 1: T Higgins against zone as well. I was. I was 639 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,560 Speaker 1: so pissed because I bet is under receptions against Baltimore 640 00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 1: a few weeks ago, because you know, they're a man 641 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,560 Speaker 1: heavy team, and what are the Bengals do. They came 642 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 1: out and just force fed the ball to T Higgins 643 00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 1: like anyway it was. It was completely inefficient by the way, 644 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 1: like it was targets and only got like, uh oh 645 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 1: seven catches. Yeah, yeah, he had seven catches, but it 646 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 1: wasn't like he wasn't like it was more inefficient than 647 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 1: it was efficient. You know, they just force sped him 648 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 1: the ball. But yeah, I agree, I have him at 649 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 1: five catches even I was catch right at sixty two percent, 650 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: so a little lower, but I do agree. It's eight 651 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 1: out of ten point seven this year, so that's you know, 652 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 1: higher percentage looks for him. He's my wide receiver twenty 653 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,320 Speaker 1: five on the on the week. You know, Tower Boyd's 654 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 1: thirty three, Jamar Chase's number four, so uh yeah, it 655 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 1: should be a good week for Bengals pass catches. All right, 656 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 1: I'll finish it up with I'll balance it out with 657 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:41,480 Speaker 1: an under here. Marvin Jones under fifty two and a 658 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 1: half receiving yards will continue to attack tough matchups with 659 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,200 Speaker 1: the under for wide receivers. Jones has been under this 660 00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 1: in three of the last four games with a median 661 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,240 Speaker 1: of thirty after he went over in three straight games 662 00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,440 Speaker 1: to start the year, so he's trending down. Buffalo is 663 00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: number three, so they're actually one spot better than the 664 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 1: Patriot in Dvoa defending number one receivers. So I have 665 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,480 Speaker 1: this projected at forty six and a half. There is 666 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,720 Speaker 1: another one about five six yards of value here on 667 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,640 Speaker 1: the under. It's just been a mess for Jacksonville and 668 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,360 Speaker 1: that offense, and the Bills are also number one in 669 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 1: pressure rate now, so it's gonna be tough to get 670 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 1: the ball to Marvin Jones and that intermediate to deep 671 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,720 Speaker 1: area of the field. For Trevor Lawrence, I think we 672 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 1: see him go underneath to our boy Jamal Agnew in 673 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 1: this one. So yeah, Marvin Jones under fifty to and 674 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:29,280 Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, I'm with you. 675 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 2: I'm projecting this around fifty one for my mean, so 676 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 2: the Medians, you know, five six yards lower than this, 677 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 2: Like you said, tough matchup. You can see them Leon 678 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 2: low a Dot, guys like Jamal Agnew Chinault Dan Arnold 679 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,840 Speaker 2: here as opposed to you know, throwing the double coverage 680 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 2: to Marvin Jones. 681 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 1: So yeah, I love the under here as well. Yeah, 682 00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,280 Speaker 1: and I think the I think Poyer and Micah Hyde 683 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,360 Speaker 1: are back in like the top ten and PFF grades 684 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 1: as well. So it's just just tough to get the 685 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 1: ball anywhere down the fields on this Buffalo team. I 686 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,240 Speaker 1: mean that that that that's just a really good team 687 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,840 Speaker 1: right now, really good defense. All right. That is going 688 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:07,360 Speaker 1: to wrap it up for our Week nine Props podcast 689 00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:10,760 Speaker 1: presented by Prize Picks to recap Shawn going with Joe 690 00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,400 Speaker 1: Burrow over two hundred sixty five and a half passing yards, 691 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 1: Ezekiel Elliott over sixty nine and a half rushing yards, 692 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 1: now g Harris over seventy six and a half rushing yards, 693 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey under seventy eight and a half receiving yards 694 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,960 Speaker 1: and Kee Higgins over four and a half receptions. I'm 695 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 1: going with Matthew Stafford over two hundred and ninety five 696 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 1: and a half passing yards, Boston Scott under forty four 697 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards, Josh Jacobs under fifty six 698 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,200 Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards, DJ Moore under seventy one 699 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards, and Marvin Jones under fifty 700 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 1: two and a half receiving yards. All right. Next up 701 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 1: here on the Fantasy Flex is a segment we call 702 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 1: Elite Entries, where Sean and I dive into the Prize 703 00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 1: six app and compare our player projections to the props 704 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:54,480 Speaker 1: to build some entries. Sean, what's your first prize picks 705 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,760 Speaker 1: Elite entry best bet for Week nine? 706 00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 2: So my first best bet is Zeke to go over 707 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,320 Speaker 2: six nine and a half rushing yards against the Broncos. 708 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 2: I think he's going to bounce back this week with 709 00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 2: Dak back under center. You know, the Cowboys are nine 710 00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,240 Speaker 2: and a half point favorites at home against the Broncos 711 00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 2: defense that has struggled against run this year. 712 00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:14,160 Speaker 1: They ranked twenty seventh in DDUA. 713 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:17,759 Speaker 2: They lost stud linebacker Alexander Johnson to the IR a 714 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,080 Speaker 2: couple weeks ago and they just trade away Von Miller. 715 00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,759 Speaker 2: So this should be a pretty easy matchup for Zeke. 716 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,800 Speaker 2: He's gone over this number in four or five games 717 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:27,880 Speaker 2: with Dak under center and when the Cowboys win. So 718 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,080 Speaker 2: I like this trend to continue here. I'm going over 719 00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 2: sixty nine and a half rushing yards all right? 720 00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 1: For my first one. I'll go Dj Moore under seventy 721 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,880 Speaker 1: one and a half the receiving yards. The Patriots with 722 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 1: Bill Belichick love to take away your number one option. 723 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: They're number four in DVOA against number one receivers. Carolina 724 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 1: wants to run. They did so forty seven times last week. 725 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,239 Speaker 1: John Where are you going for your second prize with 726 00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,240 Speaker 1: the lead entry best best the week nine? 727 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 2: So I'm going to be bold here and go with 728 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:55,919 Speaker 2: Travis Kelce to go under seventy eight and a half 729 00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,960 Speaker 2: receiving yards. Now, I'm not panicking on the Chiefs like 730 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,400 Speaker 2: everybody else. I think they're still on the elite offense. 731 00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,840 Speaker 2: Travis Kelsey is still my tight end one. However, the 732 00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,719 Speaker 2: Chiefs offense does seem to be changing a little bit, 733 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,239 Speaker 2: you know. Patrick Mahomes completed fifteen passes behind the line 734 00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,399 Speaker 2: of scrimmage last week, which is the most by any 735 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:17,640 Speaker 2: quarterback since twenty sixteen. So we've seen Kelsey's numbers dip 736 00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:19,919 Speaker 2: a bit over the past few games. He's only clear 737 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,960 Speaker 2: this number once in the past five games, so I'm 738 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,360 Speaker 2: a little bit worried about that trend. I'm projecting closer 739 00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 2: to seventy one and a half for savior yards here. 740 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,239 Speaker 2: Plus you know the Packers they're going to be with 741 00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,960 Speaker 2: how Aaron Rodgers. So the Chiefs are seven point they're 742 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,799 Speaker 2: seven and a half home favorites, so they might lean 743 00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:36,799 Speaker 2: on the run game a little bit more here. Either way, 744 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,239 Speaker 2: I think Kelsey has a lower floor than we're used 745 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 2: to seeing, so love the under seventy eight and a 746 00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:42,880 Speaker 2: half for senior yards this week. 747 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,279 Speaker 1: For my second prize pick a weed entry best bet 748 00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,560 Speaker 1: for Wee Got, I'm going Marvin Jones under fifty two 749 00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 1: and a half receiving yard. This is a Phill's defense 750 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:53,399 Speaker 1: at Creckers at in a week rate, and they're number 751 00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,200 Speaker 1: three in DBOA against the number one receivers, so it's 752 00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 1: going to be tough to get the ball to Jones, 753 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,000 Speaker 1: who's gone under this number and three of his last 754 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:04,200 Speaker 1: four games with a median of just thirty receiving yards. 755 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:08,760 Speaker 1: That is our Prize pickswit entry for today. For Week nine, 756 00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,879 Speaker 1: we're going thee over sixty nine and a half rushing yard, 757 00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,360 Speaker 1: DJ Moore under seventy one and a half receiving yards, 758 00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,200 Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey under seventy eight and a half receiving yards, 759 00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:21,080 Speaker 1: and Marvin Jones under fifty two and a half receiving yards. 760 00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,960 Speaker 1: As a reminder, Prize Pick markets do move, so you 761 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:25,799 Speaker 1: want to get on it quickly in order to lock 762 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 1: in the best numbers. If you have not created a 763 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,200 Speaker 1: prize Pix account yet, chick out the link in our 764 00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:34,799 Speaker 1: episode description. They will match your first deposit up to 765 00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,760 Speaker 1: one hundred dollars. Or you can visit prize picks dot com, 766 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:43,080 Speaker 1: use a promo code Action ten with Action one zero 767 00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:47,960 Speaker 1: and they will match your first deposit. All right back 768 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,360 Speaker 1: to the show. Find Sewan on Twitter at the Underscore 769 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,360 Speaker 1: Odds Maker. You can find me at Chris Raybon. You 770 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,800 Speaker 1: can find us at those same handles in the award 771 00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,120 Speaker 1: winning Free Action Network app, where you can follow all 772 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,800 Speaker 1: of our bets, including our prop bets and track yours 773 00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 1: as well. You can find our fantasy football rankings and 774 00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:10,279 Speaker 1: projections and content at actionnetwork dot com. And you can 775 00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:13,240 Speaker 1: find our DFS, content, tools and models at Fantasy labs 776 00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:22,400 Speaker 1: dot com. Until next time, let's get this money.