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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcall.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the corn ten seconds

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Speaker 2: of an eight.

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Speaker 3: Just go show under the basket, Under the basket, it's

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Speaker 3: the true for the wind.

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Speaker 2: God, they go amarracle.

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Speaker 3: I'm just it's the water hit, that one from the

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Speaker 3: parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Shuck it all. In college basketball, it's not the size on.

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Speaker 3: The dog in the fight, it's the size of the.

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Speaker 1: Fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast. This is the college basketball Conference Tournament

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Speaker 2: betting previous part seven. It's the final part. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: cover the rest of the conferences that we having yet

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Speaker 2: Big ten, MAC, A ten, AAC and the SEC. Joining

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Speaker 2: me as always as they do each and every Monday.

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Speaker 2: J Cunningham Mike Calbury's what's going on, gentlemen, Mike, how

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Speaker 2: are you doing great?

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Speaker 1: I mean we're getting into the thick of things. The

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Speaker 1: mid major conference tournaments I think have provided just enough

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Speaker 1: games to get you fired up for the main course here,

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Speaker 1: which is Conference Championship week with all these you know

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Speaker 1: big boys really buying more so for seating position less

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Speaker 1: those you know, automatic bids, but still very exciting and

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Speaker 1: I can't wait to see what happens.

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Speaker 2: Conference tournament you're looking forward to the most this week.

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Speaker 1: I really do think the A ten, which was a

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Speaker 1: conference that I'm covering here, but also, you know, in

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Speaker 1: back in November, certainly had aspirations of being a multi

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Speaker 1: bid league, you know, three or four teams. Maybe that

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Speaker 1: has not come to fruition, but that doesn't mean that

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Speaker 1: they can't turn it on and you know, provide a

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Speaker 1: really interesting and captivating tournament. And I think the way

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Speaker 1: that it's laid out with Davidson basically getting a red carpet,

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Speaker 1: you know, to the semis.

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Speaker 2: We don't even gonna do. Yeah, we're gonna get to

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Speaker 2: the eight ten.

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Speaker 4: Sure, but I think I think it will be interesting.

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Speaker 2: So that's my pick, going with the obvious answer that says, uh,

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Speaker 2: we'll see if you have if you're gonna throw a

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Speaker 2: little some change on Saint Joe's I hope not, but

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Speaker 2: we'll see. Uh BJ what's going on?

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Speaker 4: Brother?

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Speaker 2: Uh hope all as well. And which comforts room to

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Speaker 2: be looking forward to it as an Iowa guy? Is

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Speaker 2: it the Big Ten?

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Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, I'm really looking forward to watching Iowa

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Speaker 5: in the Big ten tournament. But I say the most

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Speaker 5: one I'm most excited for it has to be the

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Speaker 5: Mountain West. I think you have setive beams that can

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Speaker 5: potentially win it. H maybe even a to be throwing

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Speaker 5: Nevada in there. So yeah, it's it's gonna that's if

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Speaker 5: you want chaos, That is gonna be the ultimate chaos

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Speaker 5: type of tournament. And I honestly one of those A

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Speaker 5: teams wins. I'm not gonna sit back here and say,

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Speaker 5: oh my gosh, that shocked me. You know, if Utah

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Speaker 5: State goes all the way the final wins, that's great.

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Speaker 5: If Boise State runs the table, it's like, okay, then

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Speaker 5: then you know they're the best team. But man, what

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Speaker 5: a wide, wide open tournament.

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Speaker 2: That's gonna be yep, anybody but Sato's a state or

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Speaker 2: Air Force, right, good winn before we dive in. And

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Speaker 2: also Colin Wilson. Miss Wilson is supposed to join us

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Speaker 2: to talk some SEC but apparently he's still taking notes.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, so he's late and we'll see if

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Speaker 2: he ends up showing up. If not, I'll take care

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Speaker 2: of the SEC. He's probably taken notes from the nineties.

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Speaker 2: Some stats from the nineties Arkansas team. Before we get

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Speaker 2: into the conference server previews, one takeaway from the weekend

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Speaker 2: high level Michael throat you first, if.

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Speaker 1: You can get access to any stats on half court efficiency,

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Speaker 1: I think it's useful for conference tournament and for Marshmados

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Speaker 1: coming up, because you see the end of game scenarios,

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Speaker 1: whether small conference there are large conferences just over coached

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Speaker 1: and so many reviews and so many you know, extended

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Speaker 1: timeouts where coaches really do get to, if they're good

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Speaker 1: at it, draw up some really nice plays. You saw

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Speaker 1: it in the BU Navy game where Navy was a

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Speaker 1: team that for the first thirty minutes of that game,

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Speaker 1: we're not executing very well offensively, and then they got

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Speaker 1: a bunch of reviews, they got a bunch of you know,

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Speaker 1: fouls and timeouts, and they ended up at the end

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Speaker 1: of game and then in overtime executing on their home floor.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's just an interesting thing to keep

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Speaker 1: an eye on, if you have access to like a

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Speaker 1: shot quality or something like that, to go in and

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Speaker 1: take through those stats and look for, you know, a

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Speaker 1: top thirty team that may pop in the half court

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Speaker 1: efficiency ratings.

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Speaker 2: Yeah you mentioned, Yeah, the game has become much more

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Speaker 2: half court, especially in the final. And if you liked

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Speaker 2: if you can bet early and recreational bet limits, just

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Speaker 2: bet every conference tournament final under when the line first

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Speaker 2: comes out, they're all gonna crash. Most of them go under,

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Speaker 2: especially the open today we had ul Georgia State. I

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Speaker 2: thought open one thirty seven and a half and I said, whoa,

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Speaker 2: that's coming down. It's at one thirty two now. And

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Speaker 2: we had what's the other final tonight? Firm and Chattanooga

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Speaker 2: Open one forty fourth down the one thirty seventh BJ.

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Speaker 2: One big takeaway from the weekend.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, well, first of all, unfortunately my hometown Drake Bulldogs

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Speaker 5: did not pull off the upset against Loyal. That was

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Speaker 5: sad yesterday on Sunday. But the one big takeaway is

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Speaker 5: that the Big Ten is now. We'll obviously talk about it,

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Speaker 5: but it's gonna be a very very interesting tournament with

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Speaker 5: some of the injuries, some of the teams down the

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Speaker 5: board that are starting to catch fire here as of late.

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Speaker 5: The Michigan result against Ohio State was a little bit shocking.

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Speaker 5: Iowa taking Illinois to the brink and probably should have.

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Speaker 5: You know, winning gives them good chances in the Big

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Speaker 5: Ten Tournament. But my biggest takeaway is that it's just

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Speaker 5: gonna be a fun week. I'm really really excited. You know,

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Speaker 5: it's been about two years since we've had, you know,

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Speaker 5: full conference tournaments without a pandemic. We're gonna have full crowds,

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Speaker 5: We're gonna have no games are gonna get canceled, no

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Speaker 5: games are getting postponed. It's honestly just going to be

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Speaker 5: a really really fun week of college basketball for the

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Speaker 5: first time really in three years.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a good spot to transition to the

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Speaker 2: first one you mentioned, the Big Ten. Let's start there

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Speaker 2: with the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Big Ten Conference.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, let's do this March ninth through the thirteenth

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Speaker 2: in Indianapolis. Fourteen teams double buys by Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin,

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Speaker 2: and Purdue. Purdue is the favorite at plus two hundred.

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Speaker 2: Illinois plus two seventy. They got Iowa plus four forty,

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Speaker 2: even though they don't have a double by. Interestingly enough,

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Speaker 2: if they win, they would play Rutgers, who's twenty to one.

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Speaker 2: Rutgers did be dial but that was at home and

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Speaker 2: there was a BS call. But I was definitely getting

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Speaker 2: some respect market from how they've played recently. Wisconsin ten

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Speaker 2: to one, and then the two seed that's a lot

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Speaker 2: to do with a bit a bit fortunate, but without Johnny.

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Speaker 2: If Johnny Davis out, it's not even like in an

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Speaker 2: IT team Ohio State who's been fading and has some

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Speaker 2: injury concerns themselves eleven to one. Sparty just has not

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Speaker 2: looked great down the stretch as well. Sixteen to one

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Speaker 2: Michigan twenty eight the one I assume Hunter Dickinson will

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Speaker 2: be fine, a stomach hoist who didn't play in Indiana

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Speaker 2: forty to one. Those two teams played in the eight

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Speaker 2: nine game winner gets Illinois. So when I first look

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Speaker 2: at this bracket, BJ, I mean, you know, I wanted

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Speaker 2: to attack Wisconsin even before the Johnny Davis injury, but

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Speaker 2: now you know, the market has kind of reacted to it.

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Speaker 2: But there's no one I really love down there. Like

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Speaker 2: I just think it's going to be Purdue getting to

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Speaker 2: the final, even though I think Purdue has serious flaws

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Speaker 2: that kind of disqualify them as a national title contender.

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Speaker 2: The more I watch them, like their perimeter defense, their turnovers,

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Speaker 2: and then on the top half, it's like I want

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Speaker 2: to Diowa, but they at the price, you probably get

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Speaker 2: a better price. Doing a money line rollover Indiana Michigan

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Speaker 2: could be a really good game two desperate teams. The

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Speaker 2: winner of that I think maybe you can make a run.

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Speaker 2: Figuring out who's definitely gonna win that game might be

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Speaker 2: a key to the equation. And then my other thought

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Speaker 2: is Rutgers twenty to one with the buy like just

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Speaker 2: more price perspective. They might have the most value, but

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Speaker 2: you really trust them away from the rack. Let's start

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Speaker 2: at the top of the bracket, start high level. What

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Speaker 2: are your thoughts on the Big ten bracket? Yeah, you

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Speaker 2: mentioned it.

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Speaker 5: Purdue should pretty much cruise here. With the injuries to

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Speaker 5: Johnny Davis. The latest report I saw is that he's

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Speaker 5: optimistic to play in this tournament, so who knows, He's

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Speaker 5: probably not gonna be one hundred percent, which obviously Hamper's

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Speaker 5: wisconstant greatly because without him they're not a good team

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Speaker 5: at all.

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Speaker 2: Purdue.

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Speaker 5: What's interesting about Purdue you mentioned it. They do have

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Speaker 5: some pretty serious defensive flaws, but they've also been pretty

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Speaker 5: unlucky this season. You know, they've lost four times to

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Speaker 5: the Buzzer during Big ten play, which is kind of crazy,

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Speaker 5: but Ohio State having some injury concerns. You know, Kyle

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Speaker 5: Young didn't play against Michigan. Who knows what his status

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Speaker 5: is for the tournament. I really do think that that

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Speaker 5: eight to nine matchup of Indiana Michigan is where I

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Speaker 5: would look is one of those two teams to potentially

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Speaker 5: make a run. Indiana is really at forty to one

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Speaker 5: for me. They do have the talent to potentially get

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Speaker 5: past Michigan and then give Illinois some problems. The problem

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Speaker 5: is they just haven't looked, you know, interested for a

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Speaker 5: lot of the season. There's been some bad body languages,

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Speaker 5: off the court issues, but it's still the number one

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Speaker 5: team in the Big Ten, and adjust the defensive efficiency.

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Speaker 5: They haven't been able to hit anything on the offensive

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Speaker 5: end of the floor. But per shot quality, they're the

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Speaker 5: number one team in the Big Ten in open three

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Speaker 5: point rate, but they're only shooting around thirty one percent

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Speaker 5: for the season. So if those shots can somewhat go

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Speaker 5: down and they could potentially run through and make a

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Speaker 5: run here. They know Trace Jackson Davis is one of

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Speaker 5: the best big men in the country. Parker Stewart really

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Speaker 5: good three point shooter, Zaber Johnson good point guard.

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Speaker 2: They the gamings.

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Speaker 5: Purdue was really encouraging this past weekend. They actually looked committed,

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Speaker 5: like they wanted to be there, they wanted to actually

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Speaker 5: try and upset Arrival. Forty to one is a pretty

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Speaker 5: good price for them, even though they do have to

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Speaker 5: play Illinois in the next round.

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Speaker 2: Illinois.

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Speaker 5: It's very interesting because do I think they should get

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Speaker 5: to the final.

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Speaker 2: Yes, probably.

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Speaker 5: You know, you can make a case that i Will

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Speaker 5: probably should have won that game on Sunday night, But

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Speaker 5: you mentioned it the price. The price on Iowa is

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Speaker 5: way too low, and I was really disappointed in seeing

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Speaker 5: that this morning. I was kind of hoping we get

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Speaker 5: them around eight ten to one, because, like you said,

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Speaker 5: they don't have they don't have a buye, so it's

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Speaker 5: hard for me to play them, especially at four to one. Rutgers,

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Speaker 5: I do agree with you from a price perspective, definitely

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Speaker 5: does have some value getting that because.

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Speaker 2: They beat all the time. I mean, right the caveat

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Speaker 2: it's always it's at home. I mean they won at Wisconsin,

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Speaker 2: which was impressive, but you know, they beat Illinois, they

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Speaker 2: beat Iowa, they beat Perdue, like that could be their

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Speaker 2: path and they have a buye. They just have to

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Speaker 2: win three games. They're going to grind games down, They're

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Speaker 2: going to be in it. It's just a matter of

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Speaker 2: do you trust them to win three games in a

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Speaker 2: row away from the rat which is maybe a tough ask.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's I think that's a little bit tougher to ask,

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Speaker 5: but you're getting a good price to do so. So

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Speaker 5: for me, it's Indiana forty to one. I think it's

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Speaker 5: a good price on a pretty talented team. Michigan at

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Speaker 5: fifteen to one. What's weird about Michigan as if you

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Speaker 5: look through the results, it's just win give twenty eight.

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Speaker 2: There's twenty eight to one Michigan out there. If you

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Speaker 2: find that, grab it. Yeah.

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Speaker 5: It's just it's just it's like a roller. It's just

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Speaker 5: up and down, up and down, up and down. So

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Speaker 5: I don't know what Michigan team you're gonna get. You

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Speaker 5: could get the talents and Michigan team that everybody thought

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Speaker 5: was gonna, you know, cruise through the Big Ten. That

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Speaker 5: was like the second best team in the country. You know, Dickerson,

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Speaker 5: Dickinson should be back for the Big Ten tourna. I

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Speaker 5: think it's just a stomach heilment against Ohio State. So

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Speaker 5: it's definitely a team that can make a run and

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Speaker 5: give Illinois a lot of problems because I'm pretty sure

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Speaker 5: Dickinson didn't play in the meeting and Champagne against Illinois,

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Speaker 5: so uh, I'd say yeah, Michigan, Indiana Rutgers is definitely

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Speaker 5: where I'm looking produce and cruise the final. So looking

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Speaker 5: at that top half of the bracket, taking a shot

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Speaker 5: on somebody taking out Illinois, I think it's the way to.

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Speaker 4: Go in the Big Ten Tournament.

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Speaker 2: Mike Getty Daughts, I pretty.

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Speaker 1: Much agree with the whole assessment there, although I will

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Speaker 1: say Purdue, given painters track record in the Big Ten

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Speaker 1: Tournament always, I'm a little apprehensive to pencil them in

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Speaker 1: to the semis the finals, however far ahead you want

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Speaker 1: to say that they're going to go just because they

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Speaker 1: played down with their competition, you know, Stucky basically laid

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Speaker 1: out some of their their issues and deficiencies as a team.

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Speaker 1: So that's just my produe thoughts. In addition to it,

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Speaker 1: this is something I'd like to throw to you guys.

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Speaker 1: If this game or sorry, if this tournament was held

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Speaker 1: at the Rack, what do you think the odds that

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Speaker 1: Rutgers would be to win.

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Speaker 5: It minus five hundred, they'd probably be like.

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Speaker 2: Let's see six four two, they're probably like five five

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Speaker 2: to one.

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Speaker 1: Would you say that's the biggest swing in terms of

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Speaker 1: major commerce basketball for a single team that you know,

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Speaker 1: at least on paper, should have a chance to win

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Speaker 1: this tournament?

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Speaker 2: Probably, I mean the biggest it would be if you

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Speaker 2: if you argue that Colorado has a chance, it would

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Speaker 2: be Colorado. They have the biggest home court and with

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Speaker 2: the altitude, and they would probably have biggest swing going

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Speaker 2: from Vegas to Colorado. But Rutgers is definitely up there

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Speaker 2: from when you look at their their splits this year

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Speaker 2: from home versus away, they are a wagon at the rack.

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Speaker 2: All right, that'll do it for the Big Ten. So

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Speaker 2: we covered BJ's Iowa squad. Now we have to cover

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Speaker 2: Mike's Saint Joe's team and the A ten tournament. You

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Speaker 2: the jump start on March with the Atlantic ten Men's

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Speaker 2: Basketball Championship jam packed with Collin Hoots at ship that

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Speaker 2: shuret to deliver more fan frenzy than ever before Atlantic

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Speaker 2: Ten Conference tournament previous March ninth through the thirteenth in

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Speaker 2: DC at Capitol One Arena. Fourteen teams are in it,

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Speaker 2: double buys by Davidson, Bonnie's, Dayton, and VCU. Dayton is

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Speaker 2: the favorite plus two ninety Davidson plus three sixty the

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Speaker 2: one seed, even though they lost at Dayton because VCU

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Speaker 2: lost Saint Louis Vicus plus four twenty bodies from five

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Speaker 2: to one, Saint Louis plus seven fifty, Richmond ten to one,

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Speaker 2: Mason eighteen to one, and then you got to kind

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Speaker 2: of get into some some of the dregs. Your hawks

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Speaker 2: never die, but they're probably gonna die. So that the

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Speaker 2: most I think the most interesting storyline from the A

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Speaker 2: ten and like David Saon is probably in the tournament

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Speaker 2: VCU probably is that you have these two senior Layden

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Speaker 2: teams in Bonnie's and Richmond that were a lot of

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Speaker 2: people thought we're going to be tournament teams this year

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Speaker 2: that disappointed are not going to get at large? Is

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Speaker 2: is this a reset? Can either? You know, Bonnie's is

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Speaker 2: trending up more so than Richmond to close the year.

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Speaker 2: Depth is a big issue with them though, which kind

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Speaker 2: of scares me. But do either one of those teams

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Speaker 2: kind of put it together here? And steal a bid.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts overall in the A ten when

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Speaker 2: you take a look at this bracket.

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Speaker 1: So I'll start because you teed it up with the

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Speaker 1: you know, Bonnie's and Rich because those are two teams

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Speaker 1: that you have to take seriously. The upside for the

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Speaker 1: Bonnis is pretty simple. They limit turnovers, which in tournament

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Speaker 1: play you don't want to have those twelve to fifteen

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Speaker 1: turnover games that you know immediately throw you out of contention.

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Speaker 1: Their efficient in transition, they attack the rim. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: they've been hot down the stretch. Eight of their last

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Speaker 1: nine they've won, including a sweep of Saint Louis and

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Speaker 1: Adaways really picked it up, and that's kind of what

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Speaker 1: they need from a scoring perspective. They need him to

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Speaker 1: kind of carry the load, and he's been able to

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Speaker 1: do that as well as playing efficiently. He's had multiple

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Speaker 1: games with zero turnovers. The downside is pretty simple. They

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Speaker 1: dare teams to shoot threes against them. You know, they

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Speaker 1: give up nearly twenty six three point attempts per game,

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Speaker 1: and that really brings in the variance question where it's like,

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Speaker 1: you know, if a team hits twelve of those, there's

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Speaker 1: just no way in terms of the game plan and

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Speaker 1: the way they like to play.

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Speaker 4: For the Bonnies to rebound for something like that.

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Speaker 1: When you look at their path though they got Saint Louis,

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Speaker 1: they got Davidson in their way. That's not great and

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Speaker 1: I agree even but they did.

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Speaker 2: Just look really good against Saint Louis in two meetings

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Speaker 2: and know they have a bye before, which is important

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Speaker 2: for a team with like say, Bondi is a no

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Speaker 2: depth and Saint Louis will playing on a back to back,

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Speaker 2: so definitely advantage Bonnie's there.

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Speaker 1: This is just such an extreme example of no depth

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Speaker 1: and trying to play that iron man starting five four,

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Speaker 1: Their five starters play thirty seven minutes plus. I don't

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Speaker 1: think I've ever seen anything approach that from really a

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Speaker 1: coach's preference perspective. But I would like to get into

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Speaker 1: too Richmond just for a second. You know, when you

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Speaker 1: look at the Spiders, they have, you know, so many

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Speaker 1: super seniors, and this veteran team the thirty second in

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Speaker 1: shot quality adjusted offense, twenty third points per possession in

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Speaker 1: a half court somebody I mentioned earlier where there's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a lot of those stoppages, those reviews those can

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Speaker 1: you execute in the final three to four minutes and

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Speaker 1: win basketball games. They have that they share the ball

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Speaker 1: really well seventh and assist to turnover ratio. So I

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Speaker 1: love the fact that they don't beat themselves. And then

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Speaker 1: the other element they don't put teams on the line,

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Speaker 1: which I really like.

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Speaker 4: In the tournaments setting there, there's plenty of things to

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Speaker 4: point to as well. You know, they were really close

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Speaker 4: and two point.

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Speaker 1: Losses to VCU and Dayton a three point loss to Davidson,

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Speaker 1: so you don't have to squint all that hard to

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Speaker 1: see them as one of the top teams in the

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Speaker 1: A ten. You know, they got snake bit a little

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Speaker 1: bit in close games and then finally the big three

358
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Speaker 1: having Burden Gilliard Golden. You know, when you put them

359
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,119
Speaker 1: all together, they're scoring forty four points per game. So

360
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Speaker 1: I like that it's a known quantity. It's really comes

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Speaker 1: down to the number. For me, they're plus seven to

362
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Speaker 1: fifty in most markets. If I could get eight to one,

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Speaker 1: it may seem like splitting hares. I want a little

364
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Speaker 1: more value for you know, look at their path, which

365
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Speaker 1: is on the right side of the bracket, at least

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Speaker 1: in my estimation final thoughts.

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Speaker 4: You know, Davidson has been so good this year.

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Speaker 1: They're so good in this tournament historically, and when you

369
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Speaker 1: look at the way everything is lining up, I don't

370
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Speaker 1: think they have a real threat until they get to

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Speaker 1: the Semis. And because of that, I think that they're

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Speaker 1: going to be They're gonna be a tough out and

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Speaker 1: I probably am going to play them at plus three

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Speaker 1: fifty if I can get them a little bit better.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're twenty five and five on the year

376
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Speaker 1: and they only have one bad loss, no disrespect to

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Speaker 1: Bjay's Rhode Island team, that's the only one they lost

378
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Speaker 1: in the road Rhde Island, and all the other games

379
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Speaker 1: they lost were to good teams. And in five of

380
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Speaker 1: their last six games they've held upon sixty two points

381
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Speaker 1: or less. So the pace, the way they like to

382
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Speaker 1: play is really jamming up teams. They're not, you know,

383
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 1: being effective and speeding Davidson up. So because of that

384
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Speaker 1: goes right back to an elite half court offense. If

385
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna play two teams here, I'm gonna play both

386
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,159
Speaker 1: teams who were elite in the half court Davidson and

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Speaker 1: Richmond at separate prices.

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Speaker 2: Is your prediction Davidson wins this?

389
00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 4: Yes, I think Davidson Is should be the odds on favorite.

390
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 4: They are not. So I'm going to go ahead and

391
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Speaker 4: take advantage of that.

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Speaker 2: PJA. Who was your pick? By the way, that I

393
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:35,879
Speaker 2: should ask you who's your pick that it's going to

394
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 2: win it? Not paking wise? Just who do you think

395
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,359
Speaker 2: is going to win the Big Ten? I didn't ask

396
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Speaker 2: you with the Big Ten? Who Purdue?

397
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Speaker 5: I thinkdu is gonna win the Big Ten? Illinois path is,

398
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Speaker 5: like we mentioned a little too hard in Purdue having

399
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 5: that breeze.

400
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:48,640
Speaker 4: I think they should win the Big Ten.

401
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 2: Mike, So yeah, I think you could find there's a

402
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 2: I think there's a ten to one rich Richmond out there.

403
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,359
Speaker 2: Maybe it got hit, but I saw it last night.

404
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,399
Speaker 2: I think at that price they might be worth a flyer.

405
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,080
Speaker 2: I obviously assume that you're not going to recommend taking

406
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,119
Speaker 2: a flyer on your Saint Jose Hawks or any of

407
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 2: the teams playing in the first round. Who would need

408
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 2: to win five games in five days to pull off

409
00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 2: a stunner.

410
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, they would need They would need one of those

411
00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 1: like active god SEC tournament tornadoes. Situations play at different

412
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 1: venues like they would need something insane to happen to

413
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:25,400
Speaker 1: win five to five days.

414
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 2: So by looking at the first round matchups, LaSalle taking

415
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,639
Speaker 2: on Saint Joe's a little big five action and then

416
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:38,440
Speaker 2: Rhode Island Ducaine. Ducaine really faded down the stretch. But

417
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,000
Speaker 2: if you want to comment on that game, feel free to.

418
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 2: But I got to ask you about your Hawks. They

419
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 2: just I almost bet them, and thank god I didn't

420
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 2: against the Soua that they completely melted down. Anything in

421
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,359
Speaker 2: that matchup or in that game that interests you.

422
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Speaker 1: You know, the beginning of this season, I had some

423
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: hope hopes, you know, what they were doing, particularly you know,

424
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 1: they get back to back Big five wins against Penn

425
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 1: and Temple, and I'm starting to feel optimistic, and I

426
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:10,560
Speaker 1: think you hit the nail on the head. Things have

427
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 1: just fallen apart for them down the stretch, and in

428
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:18,160
Speaker 1: terms of being able to score, it has gotten so ugly,

429
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,720
Speaker 1: you know, fifty two against Saint Bonaventure, sure, forty eight

430
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:25,239
Speaker 1: against Lasal. I think for that reason alone, I'm going

431
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Speaker 1: to sell on them.

432
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Speaker 4: This is a pass for me.

433
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Speaker 1: Usually I like them to show a little pride, particularly

434
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 1: in an inter city you know, matchup here, but I'm

435
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Speaker 1: going to stay far away from Saint Joe's and hope

436
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 1: maybe they can take advantage of the transfer market get

437
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 1: some better talent in here next year, because offensively it

438
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,400
Speaker 1: just dried up to the point where, you know, early

439
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 1: in the season between Hall and Funk Like, you know,

440
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,120
Speaker 1: they had some good pieces. I think at this point

441
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 1: they have four scores over twelve points per game. I

442
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,880
Speaker 1: don't know where that scoring is going, you know, when

443
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 1: the rubber hits the road, but they just certainly haven't

444
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: shown that down the stretch.

445
00:20:58,600 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 3: Are you a.

446
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 2: Fan of the coaching situation at Saint Jose I am not.

447
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 1: I'm not delusional about the you know, the kind of

448
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 1: job that this is, but I do think in terms

449
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 1: of pitching it, you know, opening up to new candidates,

450
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 1: it's a program that it's the number one, you know

451
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 1: sport at the school. There's a lot of buy in

452
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 1: with the alumni base. You know, the school itself has

453
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 1: improved its prestige and you know, its regional draw. So

454
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 1: I think it's in as good a position as it

455
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,360
Speaker 1: can be vis a vis some of the other we'll

456
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 1: call it, you know, outside of the top three jobs

457
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 1: in the a ten. I think it could be right there.

458
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 1: So I would love to see them go after you know,

459
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: an assistant from a high major who can recruit and

460
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 1: go ahead and particularly recruit. You know, Philly Wilmington, Chester,

461
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 1: You know the areas around there. You can pull talent

462
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 1: out of there. They've certainly done in the past. Yure

463
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 1: Maar Nelson was a Chester kid, so you don't have

464
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 1: to travel very far to get a talented roster on

465
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,120
Speaker 1: the court. But I would love to see Saint Joe's

466
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 1: going in different direction.

467
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, like, how do you not get and just he

468
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 2: has a chance to dance? How do you not get

469
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 2: Timara Nelson Junior. That's a good point. Crazy by the way,

470
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:13,400
Speaker 2: that what was it sant Cho's led in that game? Man,

471
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 2: it was ugly. They scored. They're up thirty nine to

472
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 2: twenty four with eighteen to go and to the sal

473
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 2: and they lost forty nine to forty eight. They had

474
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 2: nine points for the final eighteen minutes, lost by one,

475
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 2: laying one. Brudolph, you had it. By the way, I

476
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 2: shout off to Tulsa for that half court shot. So

477
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 2: let's speaking of Tulsa, Let's bring in someone from Tulsa

478
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 2: Colin Wilson, who's on that bed as well, dry a

479
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 2: horn at the horn. Incredible moment that I needed. That

480
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,640
Speaker 2: just made me feel so much better going in the march.

481
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 2: We're Colin's side of the join US. So you've done

482
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,919
Speaker 2: taking notes on the nineties Arkansas basketball team. Whoo pick Sully.

483
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 3: You know, as I sit here in my musbust t shirt,

484
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 3: my razorback hat, I had to do everything I could

485
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 3: not to take them to win the SEC Tournament. So

486
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 3: everybody'll be happy to know that this is a very

487
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 3: contrarian Arkansas analysis about to come. There's no Homerism whatsoever

488
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 3: because frankly, we're outside of blud Walton, Marina, so who

489
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 3: knows what's about to happen.

490
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 2: All right, Well, let's talk the SEC toever. That's what

491
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 2: we brought you in here.

492
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 5: It just means more.

493
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 2: March ninth through the thirteenth in Tampa. Buys Auburn, Kentucky,

494
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 2: Tennessee and Arkansas with your double buys here. Kentucky is

495
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 2: the favorite at plus two hundred Auburn plus two seventy,

496
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 2: Tennessee plus three seventy Arkansas plus seven hundred LSU eleven

497
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:42,880
Speaker 2: to one Alabama sixteen to one. Those might be maybe

498
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 2: some intriguing long shots other than that, I mean Mississippi

499
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 2: State forty five to one. And then you're getting into

500
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 2: teams that I just don't think are capable of beating,

501
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 2: you know, three elite teams after you know, and then

502
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 2: four to four days. So that's as far as we go,

503
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 2: but maybe you'll mention one of them when you first

504
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 2: look at this bracket. I mean, I think the thing

505
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 2: that jumps out to me is just the potential for

506
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 2: the semies that did Auburn Arkansas rematch but ken Arkansas

507
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: get by LSU and they just played a really tight game,

508
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 2: and then the potential for Kentucky Tennessee Part three could

509
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 2: be an electric semis day in the SEC tournament. What

510
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 2: are your thoughts on the overall bracket and what are

511
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 2: you looking at?

512
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:26,119
Speaker 3: I think I think there's a lot of things that

513
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 3: we need to talk about because the SEC Tournament, I

514
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 3: think is different than everything else that we've seen.

515
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,360
Speaker 2: It just means more. I mean, it just means more.

516
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 3: I don't even understand going back to Tampa to play this,

517
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,399
Speaker 3: but what you know, but you know, listen, I think

518
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 3: this is the one tournament where you can pretty much

519
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 3: pencil in the top four teams into the semi finals,

520
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 3: with the exception of number five Auburn in twenty nineteen

521
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 3: and as an East number six seed in two thousand

522
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 3: and eight. For Georgia, a top four seed has won

523
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,360
Speaker 3: this tournament every year since nineteen ninety four.

524
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 2: So Georgia there was like hurricanes. We were just talking

525
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 2: about needing hurricanes and acts of God and change as

526
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 2: a venue that happened that year when Georgia want it right.

527
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 3: So I don't see anything happen. I'll have to check

528
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 3: the radar map. We're back in college football season, Hurricanes

529
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 3: in Tampa, but I mean only three seats to just

530
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 3: to like underline that only three teams outside the top

531
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 3: four have ever even made the championship game since nineteen

532
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 3: ninety four. So we can sit here and talk about

533
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 3: how much I love how Vanderbilt's playing. They have the

534
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 3: second best efficiency over the last thirty days. I think

535
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 3: they're going to beat Georgia. I think they have a

536
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 3: great chance to beat number six seed Alabama, but they're

537
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,880
Speaker 3: going to run into a wall with Kentucky. As much

538
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 3: as I'd like to talk about that, I think it'd

539
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 3: be a waste of time to say that anybody's going

540
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 3: to jump into these semi finals the LSU Arkansas LSU does.

541
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 2: Before you move off from that, though, because Alabama is

542
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 2: an intriguing future just because they shoot a top of three,

543
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 2: so it's a high vurncy, which is what you want

544
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 2: to look for. But here's the thing. They haven't matched

545
00:25:58,359 --> 00:25:59,880
Speaker 2: up well with Kentucky and they went three for thirty

546
00:25:59,920 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: one one game, and then they ended up blowing a

547
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: big leave when Kentucky was a really shorthanded and they're

548
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 2: gonna have to play it back to back. But people

549
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 2: forget Dandy's not a given, so keep that in mind

550
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 2: with Albata, it's not a given that Alabama. We variants

551
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 2: can work the other way as well.

552
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 3: Okay, Yeah, and I think this is one conference where

553
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 3: they are This is, you know, defined by Ken Palm,

554
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 3: this is the third strongest conference when it comes to

555
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 3: home court advantage and what that means is going in

556
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: and getting a road win is a really big deal

557
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 3: in the SEC. We know that every year. That's why

558
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 3: I always wait live for Arkansas to be down before

559
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 3: halftime and then firing on them live, you know, with

560
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 3: plus money because it's just an automatic in this league.

561
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 3: And when you look at that, you really want to

562
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 3: take into consideration what you're against the spread record on

563
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,919
Speaker 3: the road. Are you not phased by you know, student

564
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 3: sections pounding on top of you and referees that are

565
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 3: biased by that. Arkansas seven and two against the spread

566
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 3: on the road this year, Vandy eight and three, and

567
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 3: one against the spread on the road this year, Tennessee

568
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 3: seven and four. Now the worst teams Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi

569
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 3: State by far the worst teams on the road against

570
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: the spread. So as much as I tried to build

571
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 3: a case for Alabama, I really think Vanderbilt has a

572
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 3: great shot to upset them coming into this. So you know,

573
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 3: you know, if we're talking live betting, I know that

574
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,440
Speaker 3: there's one thing that I put in when I put

575
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 3: my plays on the action app, I'll say, if this

576
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 3: is one of those teams, it's one of the streakiest

577
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 3: in all of college basketball, because frankly, I don't think

578
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 3: you should play pregame bets on teams that have major

579
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 3: ten oh swings in their game. That team is Tennessee, Arkansas,

580
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 3: and Florida just right outside that bubble. So you know,

581
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,479
Speaker 3: Tennessee is a team that can give up a ten

582
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 3: oh run and put on a ten oh run right away.

583
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,120
Speaker 3: And I think from an efficiency standpoint, just a couple

584
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 3: other notes before we break down, say the semi finals.

585
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 3: You know, the hottest team over the last month by

586
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 3: far Arkansas. Their net plus three point two in Beijian performance.

587
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 3: That's your efficiency rating. And then you know, right behind

588
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 3: them is Vanderbilt at plus two point eight. And then

589
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 3: the worst teams over the past month, the ones that

590
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 3: are trending down Mississippi State, Florida thanks for the non

591
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 3: cover against Kentucky the other day, Old miss They've by

592
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: far been the worst teams over the past month of play,

593
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 3: so it's interesting to see where their heads are at.

594
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 3: And you know, as far as the top four seeds go,

595
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 3: this is where you and I can start talking. Semi finals.

596
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 3: Arkansas beat LSU twice. I think LSU took themselves out

597
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 3: of those games. You know, Tyger, So what do you.

598
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 2: Think about what do you think about round three?

599
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 3: Well, I think LSU had a perfect, perfect game plan,

600
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 3: perfect game plan. They use Tari Easten to defend the

601
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 3: rim and you have to do that. Arkansas attacks rin

602
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 3: almost more than in the nation, and they put you know,

603
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 3: Xavi or Pinson on jd. Notesday and shut him down,

604
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 3: didn't allow him to get a shot. That's how you

605
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 3: beat Arkansas. LS You just made really really bad mistakes

606
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 3: in the last ten minutes of that game, and you

607
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 3: just can't do that, especially on Arkansas's home court. So yes,

608
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 3: LSU has a chance, but this isn't the only time

609
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 3: that they've screwed up. LSU just plays themselves out of games.

610
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 3: I don't understand what it is. They're one of the

611
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 3: best defensive teams, not just in the SEC, in the nation,

612
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: and they just play themselves out of games with with.

613
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 2: With a lot of dumb fouls, a lot of dumb Yeah,

614
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 2: and you can't.

615
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 3: Send Arkansas to the line. They get to the line

616
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 3: more than almost anybody in the nation, and they shoot

617
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 3: at a high rate from the charity stripe. So you know,

618
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 3: Arkansas beat him twice. I'll take Arkansas into the Semmis.

619
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 3: Kentucky beat Bama by by nine at home. You know,

620
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 3: I don't even know Bama is going to be the

621
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 3: team there. Tennessee swept South Carolina, they beat Mississippi State,

622
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 3: so I'm not sure they're gonna be an upstate there.

623
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 3: And Auburn did lose to Florida by one in Gainesville

624
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 3: on February nineteenth. But this Gators team is just a

625
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 3: sinking ship right now, even with whatever home court advantage

626
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 3: you want to think when you get from Gainesville down

627
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 3: to Tampa. So I think the top four seeds are

628
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 3: definitely in the semi finals.

629
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that the biggest chance for an upset

630
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 2: is LSU Arkansas, and then you know Auburn obviously wants

631
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 2: major rive ends against Arkansas after getting up literally dunked

632
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 2: on their face to end that game. I think Kentucky

633
00:29:58,520 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 2: t o to s part three. They split the right

634
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 2: season two blowouts. Kentucky is a bit shorthanded for one.

635
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 2: I think Kentucky ends up winning this tournament and beating Auburn.

636
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 2: This is the Kentucky Invitational. That's my prediction. I think

637
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 2: it's a Chalky SEC tournament. Do you have any futures

638
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 2: here and what is your prediction?

639
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 3: Yeah? I actually I'm gonna go against you there, and

640
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 3: I can't believe I'm doing it because this is Kentucky's tournament.

641
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 3: It's always been Kentucky's tournament. I'll start first with Auburn

642
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 3: and Arkansas in the semi final. You know, you're right,

643
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 3: the Hogs won and overtime. Walker Kessler filed out of

644
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 3: that game in overtime, and that's when the Hogs really

645
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 3: took off, So that probably won't happen again. Auburn had

646
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 3: twenty four offensive rebounds and thirty six defensive rebounds in

647
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 3: that game and still lost because they committed nineteen turnovers.

648
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 3: And like I said, you can't send Arkansas on the line.

649
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 3: They shot eighty one percent on thirty two free throws.

650
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 3: They're not going to get that kind of ref advantage

651
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 3: again with the fouls. Yeah, and the SEC tournament. So

652
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 3: Arkansas's offense is based upon transition, cut and finishing at

653
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 3: the rim. That is a really bad combination against Auburn

654
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 3: d defense that is third in defending cut plays, they're

655
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 3: twelfth in the nation and defending plays at the rim

656
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 3: with Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler and and you know

657
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 3: on the Auburn offensive side, they're heavy on isolation and

658
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: they love to shoot off trible threes. Arkansas is one

659
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 3: hundred and ninth and defending isolation ninety fourth and off

660
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 3: trible threes on defensively, effort gets Arkansas a long way.

661
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 3: They're the one they I mean, they just bust numbers

662
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 3: on a spreadsheet up because of how much hustle they

663
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 3: have and Eric Musselman. But at the same time, they

664
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 3: don't have what it takes to beat Auburn on a

665
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 3: neutral site. So I'm gonna go with Arkansas there. Now

666
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 3: the big game where I had a hard time. The

667
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 3: reason why you know, I was a little a couple

668
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 3: of minutes late joining the program here is because I

669
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 3: just could not figure out a winter between Tennessee and Kentucky. Eventually,

670
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 3: you know, they split each other, and Tennessee's been hot

671
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 3: down the stretch, third best overall efficiency through the past

672
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 3: month in the SEC. Kentucky's dealt with injuries ty Ty

673
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 3: Washington and Severe Wheeler. We don't know how you know

674
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 3: full strength that they are, But Kentucky's gonna want this

675
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 3: game and transition their third in frequency and twenty second

676
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 3: and mid rate jumpers. Tennessee's two hundred and thirty first

677
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 3: and transition defense. So that's how you beat the volunteers.

678
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 3: So we'll see if Kentucky's gonna push tempo. But you know,

679
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 3: Kentucky is most efficient in post ups with Oscar Chibwe

680
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 3: probably the best player in the nation. But Tennessee's nineteenth

681
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 3: in defending post ups. So at least they do have

682
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 3: some sort of defense that they can throw in there

683
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 3: in front of Big O and the three biggest frequency

684
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 3: plays for Tennessee. On the offensive side, they like to

685
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 3: run screens, they do catch and shoot threes, and they

686
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 3: do dribble threes, and all of that is set up

687
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 3: by threes. So I'm sorry by screens. So that plays

688
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 3: right into a Kentucky defense that's top forty against screens

689
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 3: and catch and shoot threes. Where Kentucky gets in trouble

690
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 3: on the defensive side of the ball is against dribble threes.

691
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 3: So if Tennessee is pushing tempo, they're using screens, and

692
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 3: they're hitting dribble threes, they're going to have success and

693
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 3: they could win the game. So I ultimately went with Tennessee.

694
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 3: They've been hot down the stretch. I shouldn't go against Kentucky.

695
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 3: Kentucky still dealing with injuries that might be fully one

696
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 3: er percent healthy. You and I talked about this on

697
00:32:58,240 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 3: the pod last week. I have no clue where this

698
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,959
Speaker 3: team is health wise, but to how hot Tennessee has been,

699
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 3: I'm going to take them here and then once you

700
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 3: get past that Tennessee Auburn, everything for me is advantage Tennessee.

701
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 3: Tennessee's defense is thirty second in efficiency against dribble threes,

702
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 3: and they're fifteenth against isolation plays. That's all they do

703
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 3: is Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith is isolation plays, and

704
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 3: they have dribble. They do dribble off the three. Tennessee is,

705
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 3: you know, highly ranked top thirty five on both those categories.

706
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 3: You switch to the other side. Auburn defense. They're middling

707
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,479
Speaker 3: in Division One against catch and shoot threes and screens,

708
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 3: which is all the Tennessee does. Neither team really has

709
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 3: an advantage in bench minutes. We have to talk about

710
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 3: this in these tournaments.

711
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 2: This will be day three.

712
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 3: In this game, Arkansas is outside the top three hundred

713
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 3: bench minutes. I can't take Arkansas future when you're outside

714
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 3: the top three hundred on a day three of a

715
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 3: tournament going through this kind of schedule.

716
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 2: So when you look at Benjamin and your first two

717
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: likely opponents gonna be LSU at Auburn like up and

718
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 2: down games.

719
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 3: Right right, so that's another reason why you know, Auburn

720
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 3: and Tennessee just inside the top one hundred in bench minutes,

721
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 3: they should be fresh cant Ucky around two hundred and seventeenth.

722
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 3: I think so not a bit. You know, if they

723
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 3: make it in they might be tired. Who knows, with

724
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 3: the injuries.

725
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 1: You know.

726
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 3: So you know I'm gonna take Tennessee, you know, over

727
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,399
Speaker 3: three to one odds win the SEC. I think they're

728
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 3: gonna make the finals. You can definitely hedge that against Kentucky.

729
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 3: I wouldn't hedge it in the finals against Auburn whatsoever.

730
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 3: Auburn's just that defense, the fact that they can't handle

731
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 3: screens and catch and shoot threes. They're so good at

732
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,760
Speaker 3: other things like interior paint. Like I mean, Walker Kessler

733
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 3: is just a mad man. I'd love to see him

734
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:31,359
Speaker 3: in chet Holmgrim go at it in the National Championship game.

735
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 3: But against Tennessee, it's just not what they do. So

736
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 3: I'm gonna ultimately take Tennessee over three to one odds.

737
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 3: I think are good. You can hedge a little bit

738
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 3: of that against the semi final against Kentucky, and I

739
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 3: don't care who comes out of Auburn and Arkansas. Arkansas

740
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 3: doesn't have the gas in the tank. I can't believe

741
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 3: I'm saying that about a team that's always like on

742
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 3: fire and just up in your face. And then at

743
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 3: the same time Auburn just you know, losing in Budwall

744
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 3: and Arena. There's no shame in that. I mean, you're

745
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 3: your best player filed out. You're just not have those

746
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 3: circumstances again. So give me Tennessee.

747
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean one thing that could the injuries for

748
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 2: Kentucky could be interesting that I as my only future

749
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 2: national title feature. I hope that they lose, like to

750
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 2: win a couple of games and lose. I think it's

751
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 2: better for next week is get healthy. That's really the

752
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 2: only thing that matters. But I think that they're I

753
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,240
Speaker 2: think that they're clearly the best team in the SEC,

754
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 2: and clearly you know, a couple of points better than Auburn.

755
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 2: Their their metrics are just deflated because they've don't they've

756
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 2: all almost all of their key games, They've had one

757
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 2: of their key players out either mid game or before

758
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 2: the game, get hurt, and still look where they're at

759
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 2: the So yeah, the one the one good to give

760
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 2: you our taking Tennessee. I think that they should get

761
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 2: to the SEMIS and Kentucky. As I mentioned, you know

762
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 2: Ken vander Ken Alabama get by Vanderbilt. But if they do,

763
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 2: it's a high avaran See. It's gonna shot a ton

764
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 2: of threes. They hit twenty threes, they can take out

765
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 2: Kentucky and then that would obviously work in Tennessee's favor.

766
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 2: All right, So you're going with the rocky top yep,

767
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,080
Speaker 2: good stuff on the SEC. Might give anything else to

768
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 2: add on the SEC.

769
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 4: I like Kentucky.

770
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: I do think Tennessee having put it together, including that

771
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: win over Auburn down the stretch, it looks great, but

772
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: it's not on their home floor. I know, obviously they

773
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 1: don't have to travel to another SEC arena. But I

774
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 1: think when you look back on their season, the games

775
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: that when you know they played good teams.

776
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:20,439
Speaker 3: On the road.

777
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 1: You know, they lose to Texas, they lose to Arkansas,

778
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: they had a few other struggles along the way. I

779
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 1: just I don't have the same enthusiasm. I think the

780
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 1: stats are there, but I think in the rematch, I

781
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 1: think Kentucky's going to get the best of them. So

782
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how I'm going to play it probably

783
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,439
Speaker 1: not just a pure future on Kentucky. I may take

784
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 1: some you know, take a shot against the spread in

785
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: the first round and then roll those winnings over and

786
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 1: just go money line money line down the stretch.

787
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 4: But I'm on Big Blue Nation.

788
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, Kentucky. I don't see any value in the future

789
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 2: there plus two hundred. You know, if they play Alabama,

790
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: probably be around a seven point favorite. Then you played

791
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 2: Tennessee probably like a three and a half point favorite,

792
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 2: and then if you play Auburn, you're they'll probably be

793
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: like a two one two point favorite. So you're talking

794
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,720
Speaker 2: like minus three fifty, minus one sixty, minus one twenty.

795
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:11,240
Speaker 2: You parlay all those together, that's like plus to ninety

796
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 2: three hundred, So that's three to one. Now, you could

797
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 2: have some upsets and that could get a little lower,

798
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,319
Speaker 2: but it's not gonna go much lower than the two

799
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 2: to one. I you know, you're gonna have to be

800
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 2: three top twenty teams and so excuse me, you're gonna

801
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 2: be two top twenty teams in a row, and then

802
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 2: you're gonna play in Albama team, but they'll probably only

803
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 2: be like seven eight point that yeah, seven eight point favorites,

804
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:37,240
Speaker 2: and I'm okay.

805
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: In that spot playing them against the spread because I

806
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 1: think if they beat Bama, they're gonna crush them. Or

807
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 1: to your point, yeah, you know, Bama hit seventeen threes

808
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 1: and they lose out right, I'm fine with that big middle.

809
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:46,959
Speaker 2: I don't.

810
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 1: I think it's pretty buying the area. I think up

811
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 1: they either run away with it or they get upset.

812
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think right.

813
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,399
Speaker 3: One thing I want to about that Tennessee Kentucky game

814
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 3: because I think it's the most important game in the

815
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 3: entire bracket. I'm not sure if anybody thinks Auburn Arkansas

816
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 3: is going to win this thing. So if that de

817
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 3: facto sent my final is going to be where the

818
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,839
Speaker 3: futures are all going to be, then the way I'm

819
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:08,479
Speaker 3: going to play this is I'm going to take Tennis

820
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 3: to go over three to one. And remember what I

821
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 3: said at the beginning is this is one of the

822
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 3: streakiest teams in the nation. So when they go on

823
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 3: that ten to oher run against Kentucky, it's going to

824
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 3: be a great time for me to load up and

825
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 3: hedge in that Tennessee future because you know that run

826
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 3: is going to come midgame at some point.

827
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 2: Yep, all right, good stuff on the SEC calm feel

828
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:28,959
Speaker 2: free to well, BJ, do you have any thoughts before

829
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 2: we close it up?

830
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 5: Not really, I think I think the top four seeds

831
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 5: they're not providing that much value. I totally agree with

832
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 5: collins assessment on tennesseeed in terms of their streakiness. They

833
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,320
Speaker 5: could streak right through this and win the entire tournament,

834
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 5: or they could bow out right away. So taking a

835
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,839
Speaker 5: flyer on them is definitely or the shot. But also

836
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 5: Kentucky is the best team in this conference, so but

837
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 5: definitely not touch them at two to one. If anything.

838
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 5: Probably Alabama just as a flyer at fifteen to one

839
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,399
Speaker 5: and hope they get hot from three would be where

840
00:38:58,440 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 5: I would go in the SEC.

841
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff, we got two conferences left. Let's go.

842
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 2: Let's go to the MAC. MA just SELFDJ, I'll go

843
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 2: to you for the MAC. I think it's a pretty

844
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,879
Speaker 2: interesting conference. It's pretty straightforward. You know, there's just eight

845
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 2: teams and they play a bracket. That's it. There's no

846
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,760
Speaker 2: buys or anything. Eight teams qualify. This will be played

847
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 2: at Rocket Mortgage Field House in Cleveland, Ohio, from March tenth,

848
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 2: to the twelfth. Toledo is the one seed and the favorite.

849
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,840
Speaker 2: Kent State is the two seed, and they're like we

850
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 2: can find I think like five to one out there Toledos.

851
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,879
Speaker 2: I think those are like plus one fifty. Kent State

852
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 2: swept Toledo. They're the hottest team in the conference, the

853
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 2: best defense since here carries an absolute animal and their

854
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 2: defense is just swarming. They can really stop you at

855
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 2: the rim as well. Like I mentioned, they swept Toledo.

856
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: They're the hottest team on the other side of the bracket.

857
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 2: Then you have Buffalo disappointing season. They're kind of in

858
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 2: the same mold as like Bonnie's and Richmond, right, like

859
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 2: senior laden teams. Some expectations didn't meet them. Can they

860
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 2: suddenly you know, it's like fresh start, let's just win

861
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 2: this and get to the dance. Just got to win

862
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 2: three games? Can they beat Toledo? The game they played

863
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 2: against Toledo at home because Buffalo got hot, but it

864
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 2: was all against the dregs of the conference. And then

865
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:28,240
Speaker 2: they got crushed at home against Toledo, a pretty deflating result.

866
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,439
Speaker 2: But new life here. And you have Ohio who really

867
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 2: faded down the stretch. They have incredible offense at times

868
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 2: this year with Mark Sears and company, but they had

869
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 2: some ugly results down the stretch. Can they pick it up?

870
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 2: Is this Toledo's to lose and just stay away? Is

871
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 2: Buffalo worth a shot? Is I think Ken State has

872
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: some value five to one the way they're playing. What

873
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 2: do you say?

874
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 5: Yeah, Kent State is very very interesting. So yeah, twelve

875
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:55,320
Speaker 5: straight wins coming down the stretch. Here, The thing is,

876
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 5: if you look at shot quality, five of those games

877
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 5: say they should have lost, but still the results are

878
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 5: pretty close. That really could have gone either way. Where

879
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:05,839
Speaker 5: I'm kind of looking at this acron at twelve to one,

880
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 5: it's pretty interesting. They're gonna be one point underdogs against

881
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 5: Buffalo in their first game, but you're essentially getting them

882
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 5: double the price.

883
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:15,359
Speaker 2: They play like a fucking snail, like they yeah, they're

884
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 2: so get the ball and they'll just they'll wait, they'll walk.

885
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 2: So like that's when you're looking for some long shots,

886
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 2: three pointers when a lot of three pointers increase the variants,

887
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 2: or a team that just crawls the game because then

888
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:30,879
Speaker 2: you have fewer possessions, which also increases the variants. Right.

889
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 3: So in the other thing about the zips are.

890
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 5: They get to the free throw line at the fifth

891
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 5: highest rate in the country and their fourteenth in terms

892
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 5: of finishing at the rim. So you play that slow pace,

893
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 5: you get to the rim, you can get along the threes.

894
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 5: So it's a team really built to take out one

895
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 5: of these teams, one of the bigger teams like Toledo

896
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 5: or Buffalo in the first round. So at twelve to one,

897
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 5: it's a pretty good price. You know, if you look

898
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 5: down the stretch, they they won their last five games.

899
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 5: You go back further than that, they had a three

900
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 5: game losing streak, but per shot quality, they should have

901
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 5: won all three of those games. So essentially they should

902
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,479
Speaker 5: have finished the season on a nine game winning streak,

903
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 5: and we could be talking about them like we're talking

904
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 5: about Kent State right now. So Acron at twelve to

905
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 5: one is incredibly interesting to me. I'm definitely not touching

906
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 5: Toledo at plus one or five. It's a team that

907
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 5: pretty much pretty overachieved pretty drastically throughout the season. A

908
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 5: lot of games that they should have lost went their way.

909
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 5: Ohio is, like you mentioned, is very interesting, very high variance. Team,

910
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 5: shoots a ton of threes, really good efficient offense. They

911
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 5: could rip right through this tournament and wouldn't shock me

912
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 5: one bit.

913
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 2: If you're looking for over They closed the year losing

914
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 2: to at Bowling Green A Bowling Green. Yeah, that is done. Decimated.

915
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 2: Can't stop anybody, right they and then they lost at

916
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois to close the year. Right, it's there, and.

917
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 5: That's the very and that's the variance that you know

918
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 5: you're talking about because you've seen them. You know, Van

919
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 5: Pliss and those guys have just gone berserk in some games.

920
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 5: See against the top of the conference and you're like,

921
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 5: oh my gosh, it's the best offense out there. And

922
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 5: then they start to fade a little bit. So very

923
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 5: very high variance offense. You know, at four to one,

924
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 5: it's probably too low of a price to play that

925
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 5: type of variance if you're looking for a long shot. Miami,

926
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 5: Ohio is a little bit interesting at fifty to one.

927
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 5: They lost Alante Brown for six games during the conference play,

928
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 5: so their stats are you know, a little bit under undervalued.

929
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 5: In my opinion, they are going to be about seven

930
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 5: point underdogs to Kent State in the first game. It's

931
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 5: a team that underachieved a great deal. They're team they

932
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 5: have good spacing, good shot making, don't turn the ball

933
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 5: over that often. Yeah, yeah, they can't stop anything. But

934
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 5: at fifty to one, you know, that's that's essentially what

935
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,280
Speaker 5: you're paying for, right there is the team that can't defend,

936
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 5: but you know, hope they get hot in that first round.

937
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 5: So after to Miami of Ohio or the two, I'm

938
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 5: kind of looking at Buffalo. The price is too low

939
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,399
Speaker 5: at six to one for me to play that Kent State.

940
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 5: If it rises up to you know, plus five fifty,

941
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 5: I might end up looking at that, but I do

942
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 5: think that there's a little bit of negative aggression coming

943
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 5: for them, But definitely not playing Toledo or whatsoever in

944
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 5: Ohio is just too high of a variance team at

945
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 5: four to one. So Acron at twelve to one, and

946
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 5: a sprinkle on Mind of.

947
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 3: Ohio at fifty to one or two for the match.

948
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if you're gonna take a sprinkle on

949
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 2: a team like an offense like Myna of Ohio, which

950
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,919
Speaker 2: can be hot. This is this is a bracket where

951
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 2: there's no advantage to the top teams, Like it's just

952
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:26,360
Speaker 2: eight teams. You just had to win three games, that's it.

953
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 2: And then you're in, which I don't like. I think

954
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 2: that you should reward the one seed more and I

955
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 2: guess there's not a huge difference in the MAC, but

956
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 2: like what the Whack does. Like because your conference gets

957
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 2: paid for tournament wins, so you want to make sure

958
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 2: that you get your top teams and not some some

959
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 2: drag that gets hot from three and then goes to

960
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:48,879
Speaker 2: the tournament and then gets gets crushed by sixty. Might

961
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:49,839
Speaker 2: any thoughts on the MAC.

962
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,479
Speaker 1: I agree with the Akron play. That's my one play

963
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 1: on this tournament. You mentioned the snail pace, and you

964
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 1: know they're bigs. I think give them little bit of

965
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,719
Speaker 1: a different component to the way they're playing between Ali

966
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: and Freeman. On top of it, when you dig into

967
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 1: their status shot quality, you know their top forty in

968
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 1: terms of the shot quality, shots selection for their opponents,

969
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 1: so they're not giving up good looks, and when you

970
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 1: combine that with the paces they're playing at, every single

971
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 1: stop is a little bit more valuable. So I agree,

972
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:23,280
Speaker 1: that's the one I'm playing for this conference.

973
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:29,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Brian Tribbleed x Saint John Stratzer, he hasn't

974
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 2: played in I don't know, five or six games so

975
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 2: they've won them all. And like some of the things

976
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 2: I've read on about Akron, like internal things and it's

977
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 2: like addition by subtraction, which might be the case with

978
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 2: him on any thoughts in the MAC.

979
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely think that this is an Akron Kent

980
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 3: State final.

981
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:51,319
Speaker 2: KI.

982
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 3: If you look at the efficiency ratings over the past

983
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 3: thirty days, Akron, Kent State, Toledo of the top three

984
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 3: in the conference, with Kent State really being the highest.

985
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 3: They've just been on fire, including wins over Akron twice

986
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:08,439
Speaker 3: and beating Toledo by thirteen on the road on Toledo's floor.

987
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 3: But I do think this is going to be an

988
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 3: Acron Kent State final. And even though you know Kent

989
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 3: State has beaten Akron twice, there's just so many things

990
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 3: that you know, from a shot quality perspective that stick

991
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 3: out for me in Acron's favor. Kent State is known

992
00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 3: for their unbelievably great offscreen efficiency top twenty five in

993
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 3: the nation, but there's so many things that Akron does

994
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 3: that absolutely Kent State cannot defend. You look at Akron

995
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 3: being sixth in efficiency and pick and roll you see

996
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 3: fourteenth in efficiency and finishing at the rim. Those are

997
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 3: two areas that Kent State cannot defend whatsoever in some

998
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 3: of their splits on shot quality. So I agree with

999
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 3: you guys. I'm going to go with Akron here to

1000
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 3: beat Kent State. I think a future on both of

1001
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 3: them will pay off.

1002
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:56,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Kent State has something special working with Yeah.

1003
00:46:56,360 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 2: I mean they also didn't have Giavati Santiago for a stretch.

1004
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 2: He's yeah, he can come in and just give them

1005
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 2: instant offense. He's on the Puerto Rican national team. But

1006
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,359
Speaker 2: since your carry is just a flamethrower, and then they

1007
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:11,879
Speaker 2: have dudes inside and then they can defend all over there.

1008
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 2: It just seems like this team is they won twelve straight,

1009
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 2: some of the wins that they've had in pressive fashion.

1010
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 2: If they get in, I wouldn't want to play this team.

1011
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 2: They could pull off an upset or two. It's by

1012
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 2: their ceiling. But an interesting team. All right, Let's close

1013
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 2: things out with one final conference, our final one. In

1014
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 2: our seventh part College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting preview, we

1015
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:38,839
Speaker 2: got the AAC. The AAC.

1016
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 3: Now, I want every bit of information that you've got

1017
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 3: in this every lead is that clear?

1018
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:50,280
Speaker 2: The AAC became a lot more interesting. I think Memphis

1019
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 2: dominated dominated Houston to close out the regal season, and

1020
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 2: I think completely lock up a at large bid regardless

1021
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 2: of what happens this weekend and buys here Houston, Temple, Tulane, SMU,

1022
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:07,879
Speaker 2: and Memphis. By the way, this tournament we paid March

1023
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 2: tenth through the thirteenth in Fort Worth, Texas. Houston is

1024
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:14,879
Speaker 2: the favorite at minus one twenty Memphis four to one,

1025
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 2: SMU plus six fifty, Tulane ten to one. Some injury

1026
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 2: concerns with Tulane Wichita State twenty to one, uc F

1027
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 2: twenty five to one, since he thirty to one. So

1028
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 2: when I look at this conference like, I was like,

1029
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,279
Speaker 2: this Memphis team is trending up. I want to get them.

1030
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 2: You know, they they played Houston to this year, they

1031
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 2: presentally did it again. But you know, now that they're

1032
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:40,800
Speaker 2: locked in the tournament, you're if they meet again, like

1033
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 2: you're gonna get angry Houston. And now Memphis just has

1034
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:45,319
Speaker 2: like all right, they're gonna have a dud written all

1035
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 2: over them. So and then the price came down so

1036
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:49,960
Speaker 2: it's four to one. So I want nothing to do

1037
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 2: with Memphis here. I don't want Houston either. I know

1038
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 2: they're gonna be angrier, but they don't have depth, and like,

1039
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 2: you gotta win three games in three days. That scares me.

1040
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:02,360
Speaker 2: And if they do run into Memphis Memphis, even though Memphis,

1041
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 2: there's a reason Memphis won both meetings. They were pressed,

1042
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:07,399
Speaker 2: they were pressing them and their turnovers and they're length

1043
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 2: gave a lot of issues. Mike did like if I

1044
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:15,800
Speaker 2: was looking for a long shot here, honestly, like Houston

1045
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 2: looked exhausted against Memphis, and they just don't have depth,

1046
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:22,239
Speaker 2: and they just they might be on fumes since he

1047
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 2: thirty to one. If you could find that or better,

1048
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,879
Speaker 2: if you wanted just a fun future team that's disappointed

1049
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 2: but has talent, they'll be like plus five hundred versus Houston.

1050
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 2: So if they win that game, the whole bracket is

1051
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 2: wide open, and then they could easily win it. They

1052
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:40,440
Speaker 2: would have got to win two more games after that.

1053
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 2: But you're talking about like a Memphis team that could

1054
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 2: haven't done at any point in time, and this is

1055
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:48,839
Speaker 2: just like, you know, maybe that's for fun. I don't

1056
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: see it happening. But Memphis beating Houston how they did

1057
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 2: kind of spoiled a lot of the fun I wanted

1058
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 2: to have with this one.

1059
00:49:56,760 --> 00:50:01,319
Speaker 1: What do you say, Yeah, I think Houston is leaking

1060
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 1: a little bit of oil down the stretch. But this

1061
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:05,399
Speaker 1: is a team the last three AAC tournaments they're seven

1062
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: and two. They got, you know, to the title game

1063
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 1: in all three of those. They're elite offensive rebounding team.

1064
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:13,760
Speaker 1: You know, Josh Carlton makes that work, chipping in almost

1065
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 1: three and a half offensive rips per game. They don't

1066
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,439
Speaker 1: give up a lot of three point looks. They're fourth

1067
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 1: in that department in terms of clean looks from three

1068
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 1: in the entire country. But very quickly, my eyes, you know,

1069
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:27,240
Speaker 1: focused in on Memphis and SMU. I want to discuss

1070
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 1: those two.

1071
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 4: So Memphis at.

1072
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 1: Four to one, obviously they're trending in the right direction

1073
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 1: and playing great basketball. Ten and one in their last

1074
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 1: eleven during Nollie have really taken over for them, and

1075
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 1: they're great on the offensive glass. They have the eleventh

1076
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:43,680
Speaker 1: highest foul shot rate in the entire country, so you

1077
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 1: get some stability there. But in my opinion, they give

1078
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 1: away all those gains from a consistency standpoint, winning three

1079
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 1: games in three days with all their turnovers, they're three

1080
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty third nationally in giveaways. And when you

1081
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 1: look at this streak that they're on the last eleven games,

1082
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 1: I assumed, having not dug into the stats, you know,

1083
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 1: before yesterday, that they cleaned up that element of their game.

1084
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,799
Speaker 1: But they still even in some of these wins they

1085
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 1: had nineteen turnovers, twenty turnovers eight.

1086
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 4: They're going to get burned.

1087
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:12,760
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to get burned in the quarters,

1088
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 1: but I think they're going to get burned by an

1089
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 1: SMU team that has a lot to offer. They swept

1090
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 1: Memphis this year in terms of you know, getting there,

1091
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 1: they swept Tulsa. They did get hammered by witch Jaw

1092
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:24,840
Speaker 1: on the road, but I think they get out of

1093
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 1: the quarters and once they meet the Tigers. There's a

1094
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:30,799
Speaker 1: lot about, you know, the ponies that I like when

1095
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 1: it comes to get into the rim or Shooting three

1096
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 1: pointers the tops in the AAC twenty ninth nationally, so

1097
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 1: that's where the vast majority of their shots come from.

1098
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 1: They got four starters average and double digits. The Weather's twins,

1099
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 1: you know, together are putting in twenty three points thirteen rebounds.

1100
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 1: They're elite from a defensive rebounding standpoint. The Weather's twins to.

1101
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:49,800
Speaker 3: Have a lot to do with that.

1102
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:52,160
Speaker 1: They also can get to the line they make their

1103
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 1: foul shots. Kendrick Davis one of the top point guards

1104
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:58,880
Speaker 1: in the entire country and NBA efficiency according to team ratings,

1105
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:00,800
Speaker 1: he's one of the best guards in the entire country,

1106
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 1: averaging close to twenty and five.

1107
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:03,919
Speaker 3: I really look this team.

1108
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:06,840
Speaker 1: I think it's because Memphis it's been such a dramatic

1109
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,800
Speaker 1: turnaround with a young team, and Penny, you know, was

1110
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 1: probably fending off some rumors that you know, the college

1111
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 1: game just wasn't for him, and then all of a sudden,

1112
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 1: you know, you win ten of eleven and now you're

1113
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 1: the toast of the town. SMUs won six six of

1114
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,320
Speaker 1: eight down the stretch and then includes wins over Houston.

1115
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:24,960
Speaker 1: Memphis too, Lane, So I think the wrong team is

1116
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 1: getting hyped up here. I'm gonna go ahead and play

1117
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 1: a s A U plus five fifty because I agree

1118
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:29,800
Speaker 1: with your assessment at Houston.

1119
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 4: I think there's something wrong with them.

1120
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 1: They, you know, to say the obvious, not having Marcus

1121
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:36,400
Speaker 1: Sasser has hurt them so deeply for a team that

1122
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:39,360
Speaker 1: probably would have legit Final four aspirations if he was healthy,

1123
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:41,439
Speaker 1: but because they don't have them, I don't see them.

1124
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 4: Winning three straight. So I'm gonna go ahead and grab

1125
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 4: the Mustangs.

1126
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:46,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, all their injuries that just I think are just

1127
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:50,320
Speaker 2: catching up now they're still able to just like just

1128
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: crush teams on the offense, like these bad teams are

1129
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 2: the offensive glass and just dominate them right. Like you'll

1130
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 2: see them win by forty over like South Florida or Temple,

1131
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 2: and that's going to improve their efficiency margin a lot.

1132
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:06,680
Speaker 2: But you've seen this like at SMU when they lost

1133
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 2: at Memphis. When they get dominated, you can see the

1134
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,359
Speaker 2: signs and there's just no depth, which was really gonna

1135
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 2: hurt in three games in three days. I don't even

1136
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:18,240
Speaker 2: know if Sampson really wants to win this, Like obviously

1137
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:19,759
Speaker 2: you're gonna try when you go out there, but I

1138
00:53:19,840 --> 00:53:21,359
Speaker 2: think at the back of his mind he's like, man,

1139
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 2: we are guessed, Like losing the Sincy wouldn't be the

1140
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 2: worst thing in the world. You get a week off

1141
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:33,400
Speaker 2: before the tournament. So PJ editing on the ASA are

1142
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 2: you Are you a believer in Memphis? Like Memphis will

1143
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:38,959
Speaker 2: be a wild team in in in the bracket, because

1144
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:41,279
Speaker 2: it's like they have so much athleticism. By the way,

1145
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:43,320
Speaker 2: I heard people talk about money dates come back. No,

1146
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:48,319
Speaker 2: like they finally figured everything out. But you believe her

1147
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 2: in in Memphis? Do you are you? You think you

1148
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:52,839
Speaker 2: grew with us that Houston's kind of fading here?

1149
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, Houston, the injuries seem to have caught up with them.

1150
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 5: And just like you said, something's wrong Memphis. Clearly the

1151
00:53:57,800 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 5: talent is starting to pay off. It wasn't there in

1152
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:01,840
Speaker 5: the beginning the season. Now you're starting to see the

1153
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 5: actual talent that Memphis has, and they're going to be

1154
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:05,240
Speaker 5: dangerous come the nca Tournament.

1155
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:06,280
Speaker 2: But I agree with you, Stucky.

1156
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:08,400
Speaker 5: I think the price is way too low to take

1157
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 5: him here in the tournament, which does State is kind

1158
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 5: of interesting as a flyer at twenty to one, They're

1159
00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 5: gonna play SMU in the second round. SMU is literally

1160
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 5: the streakiest team in the country. So, like Mike's assessment,

1161
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 5: they could run through this tournament and then beat Memphis

1162
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 5: and beat Houston and we'd be like, oh my gosh,

1163
00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 5: this is this SMQ. SMU team is great, or they

1164
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 5: could lose pretty horrific fashion to which to State in

1165
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 5: the second round, So.

1166
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:33,839
Speaker 2: That's where I'd be going.

1167
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 5: Don't hate a shot on Cincinnati beating Houston either, So

1168
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 5: I think in this type of type of tournament, I

1169
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 5: think a long shot is the way to go.

1170
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would have went UCF like this was going

1171
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:52,439
Speaker 2: to be a team like Bodies of Buffalo, right experienced team.

1172
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:54,800
Speaker 2: They're not as experienced as those teams, but just a

1173
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:57,800
Speaker 2: team that has experienced with a lot of expectations that

1174
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:00,040
Speaker 2: didn't meet them, Like this is their fresh star and

1175
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 2: they get to go in after losing on a Tulsa heartbreaker,

1176
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 2: but they lost Mayhem and there's something off with that

1177
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 2: team this year. You can't put my finger on it.

1178
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 2: On any thoughts, you're gonna take a fly on Tulsa,

1179
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:12,320
Speaker 2: ride the dry A Horn magic.

1180
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 3: I don't think I'll ever lay a bet on Tulsa again.

1181
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 3: That was excruciating yesterday. There was what led up to

1182
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:20,120
Speaker 3: that three point show.

1183
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:21,359
Speaker 2: It was amazing. What do you mean?

1184
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 3: They were down by like twenty. I think at some

1185
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 3: point in that game it was one of those games

1186
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:26,399
Speaker 3: where it's like I'm gonna go take a walk, I'll

1187
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,680
Speaker 3: come back later. I think if you're if you like

1188
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:30,960
Speaker 3: sim you gotta worry about that Wichita State matchup. But

1189
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:34,440
Speaker 3: you know, I like to really put an increase on

1190
00:55:34,600 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 3: the last month of play during your conference and who's hottest,

1191
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 3: and that would be Memphis and two Lane by far,

1192
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:43,359
Speaker 3: two Lane on the offensive side a plus four point

1193
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:47,240
Speaker 3: nine for a bay Anesian rating performance and then Memphis

1194
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:49,840
Speaker 3: from the defensive side a plus three point six. But

1195
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 3: they're also plus two point two. Those two teams are

1196
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 3: by far just from an efficiency standpoint, they have been

1197
00:55:55,600 --> 00:55:57,760
Speaker 3: the best teams. They're on opposite sides of the bracket.

1198
00:55:58,040 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 3: If we think Houston is out of gas two Lane,

1199
00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:02,759
Speaker 3: I know that they had an overtime game and that

1200
00:56:02,840 --> 00:56:05,640
Speaker 3: they lost the Temple on the road, but Tulane has

1201
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 3: the defense needed at least on a neutral court to

1202
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:12,959
Speaker 3: take care of templecause Temple was really offensively in nept

1203
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 3: Their only play they really run is a mid range jumper,

1204
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 3: and that's a defensive stat that tu Lane is ranked nineteenth. Then,

1205
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 3: so I like Tulane to advance there if we assume

1206
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:24,320
Speaker 3: they get past Houston, I like them in the finals

1207
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 3: against Memphis. So I wouldn't be opposed to laying a

1208
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:29,920
Speaker 3: half unit on both of those teams. I think those

1209
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 3: are the two teams. And when you have athleticism like Memphis.

1210
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 3: We talk about this with Kentucky and the SEC all

1211
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 3: the time, like you just have the athleticism to rise,

1212
00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:39,799
Speaker 3: abug your numbers and play to the level of your

1213
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,880
Speaker 3: competition if it's somebody really low. So it's hard. It's

1214
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 3: a tough handicap of Memphis. But I'm gonna say this

1215
00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 3: is a two lane Memphis final.

1216
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,919
Speaker 2: It just feels to me personally that Memphis is gonna

1217
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 2: just have it done now, like it's just who Memphis is.

1218
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 2: Like now they're in the tournament, so it's like they're

1219
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:56,680
Speaker 2: gonna who are they playing in the first round? You

1220
00:56:56,760 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 2: see Affle beat them. That's what's gonna happen. You see

1221
00:56:59,480 --> 00:57:00,160
Speaker 2: It's gonna beat.

1222
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 3: I think the last second three it's.

1223
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 2: Very very Memphis esque that they'll lose this first game

1224
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:09,439
Speaker 2: after beating Houston and like basically clinching their tournament spot.

1225
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:12,880
Speaker 2: So on that end, maybe you look at UCF because

1226
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:14,520
Speaker 2: if you think that Memphis is going to just lay

1227
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 2: an egg. But I just think without Mayhan, it's tough.

1228
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 2: By the way, fouling, I feel like Mike would have

1229
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 2: a before we get out of here. A really hot, taken,

1230
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 2: passionate feel on one side or the other on this

1231
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 2: foul up three or.

1232
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 1: Not always always, always, always, and you have to pair

1233
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 1: it with do not let teams roll the ball up

1234
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:38,480
Speaker 1: the damn court when time is at a premium.

1235
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:39,560
Speaker 3: I don't understand.

1236
00:57:39,600 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 2: What do they think?

1237
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:41,919
Speaker 1: It's allan Iverson's going to pick it up and blow

1238
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,320
Speaker 1: by them, Like there's probably I can count on one

1239
00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 1: hand the amount of guards that I'd actually worry about.

1240
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 1: If you go up to challenge them, they're going to

1241
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:50,040
Speaker 1: pick it up and then it's going to be a

1242
00:57:50,080 --> 00:57:52,440
Speaker 1: five on four the rest of the way. It's infuriating.

1243
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 1: It's like it's like NFL coaches who don't understand time management.

1244
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:58,240
Speaker 1: It's the same concept, but it's like this should be,

1245
00:57:58,440 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 1: you know, the third chapter of the coach playbook for

1246
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 1: college basketball, Like when you should foul, it should be

1247
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 1: a card. It should be a yes or no situation.

1248
00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:07,120
Speaker 1: Always foul up three.

1249
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff. That wraps up part seven of

1250
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 2: our Conference Zone betegree. Make sure you check out the

1251
00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 2: other episodes if you haven't, there's still some There's three

1252
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:18,880
Speaker 2: RELEVNT episodes that came out early Monday morning. I did

1253
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 2: one with Jim Root, one with Comic Cue, and one

1254
00:58:21,360 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 2: with Maddy Cox. The guys from the Three Man We

1255
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 2: were recovered eleven conferences. We took care of five today,

1256
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:29,520
Speaker 2: the Big ten, Mac, A ten AC and the SEC.

1257
00:58:30,240 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 2: Thanks the Column for joining us, Thanks as always for

1258
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 2: Mike MBJ for joining me on each and every Monday.

1259
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 2: Thanks to all of you for listening and for subscribing, unsubscribing, subscribing,

1260
00:58:40,480 --> 00:58:42,480
Speaker 2: leave a review. Yeah, we don't have an episode later

1261
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 2: in the weeks. We won't obviously know the games, So

1262
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:46,960
Speaker 2: that's it for Big Bets on Campus podcast. This week

1263
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 2: we will have a Big Bets on Campus Live episode

1264
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 2: on Twitter. Enjoy the conference termin Action, Let's get some winners.

1265
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:55,160
Speaker 2: We will be back right here next week for March Madness,

1266
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 2: starting with our Selections Sunday episode, which will be out

1267
00:58:57,480 --> 00:59:00,400
Speaker 2: before you wake up on Monday morning. After select and Saturday,

1268
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:03,080
Speaker 2: we'll record our exhaustive two part Round one betting preview

1269
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 2: covering every game. Also have the Best Bets episode from

1270
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 2: Three Man Weak as well. And if that's not enough

1271
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:10,680
Speaker 2: for you, check out the Action Network podcast because new

1272
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:13,439
Speaker 2: this season. Love Sean Kerner and his team doing March

1273
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:16,840
Speaker 2: Madness player props episodes as well, so between Big Bets

1274
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 2: on Campus and the Action Network podcast, we've got you covered.

1275
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:22,560
Speaker 2: Good luck to you, enjoy the madness, and we'll catch

1276
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:23,480
Speaker 2: you all later. Cheers,