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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast. Pot all right,

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Speaker 1: here we go fifteen hondy forty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 2: And the kicks block the college football world standard. Oh

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Speaker 2: my goodness, big stumbled and football the lateral turn, the

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Speaker 2: counter of the job, don't you the lad I came

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Speaker 2: up the field to night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the sage of the dog in the fighting.

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Speaker 1: It's the sage of the fight in the roll. What's

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Speaker 1: up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the Week

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Speaker 1: six college football betting Preview. I'm stucky in joining me

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Speaker 1: as always my BBOC cost Colin Wilson. Ready to learn

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Speaker 1: a little bit more about some of these marquee top

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Speaker 1: teams in the country. What's going on? Brother?

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Speaker 2: I'm glad I'm here. I was afraid I was going

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Speaker 2: to get a call from Sam Pittman because he has

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Speaker 2: shuffled the entire starting five on the offensive line. I

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Speaker 2: thought I might have to go down and find I

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Speaker 2: five eligibility. I'm just glad I could be here and

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Speaker 2: not down at the university today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, look, I've been a fan of what

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Speaker 1: Pittman has done. He's in a bad spot. Like just

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Speaker 1: I mean, look at the division and conferences in and

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Speaker 1: given what he has to work with, I think he's

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Speaker 1: did a good job until he hired Danyos. Don't hire

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Speaker 1: your friends. Then he lost me. We've been yelling about

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Speaker 1: it for years and then he went and hired dan

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Speaker 1: Inos and I just can't. I cannot stay behind him.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about them for what it's worth. They're at

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss. We'll do that in rapid fire. We have

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Speaker 1: three marquee games to that. We'll get to the games

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Speaker 1: that I think are being talked about the most, obviously

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma Texas that should be fun again, Alabama Texas A

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Speaker 1: and M and Kentucky GEORGEA. We'll get to I think

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Speaker 1: eighteen to twenty games in total. Get to some trash.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk Friday Night, favorite underdog, money lines, and favorite

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Speaker 1: favorites which have been hot. It was a good week

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Speaker 1: for the podcast last week. Hopefully we can carry it

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Speaker 1: over into this week. So let's get things started with

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Speaker 1: a quick little look ahead or look away hangovers, sleepers,

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Speaker 1: and the dreaded sandwich spot.

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Speaker 2: Is it time to look ahead or look away.

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Speaker 1: For this week, we're just gonna talk about two games.

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Speaker 1: They are both related to the game next week between

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame and USC, which we will obviously cover in depth.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with Notre Dame at Louisville. This is a

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Speaker 1: really fascinating because Notre Dame. They are probably the poster

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Speaker 1: boy for look ahead or look away because of how

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Speaker 1: their schedule has played out. How much do they have

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Speaker 1: left in the tank? Started in Ireland, you get an

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Speaker 1: FCS team, but then you know you're at nc State.

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Speaker 1: Then you have that thriller against Ohio State. The next week,

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Speaker 1: you have another thriller at Duke. Now you go to Louisville,

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Speaker 1: and then next week you have USC. By the way,

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Speaker 1: for what it's worth, Notre Dame six six and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorite here over Unders come down a touch

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Speaker 1: to fifty four. Notre Dame should get a couple of

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Speaker 1: receivers back to help on the outside. I'm really conflicted

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Speaker 1: because the spot screams Louisville right at home, a Noted

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Speaker 1: Ame team that's just come off two wars and it's

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Speaker 1: had just a brutal stretch of schedule all season. With

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Speaker 1: USC on deck. But then I dig into Louisville. Look,

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Speaker 1: I was lower than the market coming into the year

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Speaker 1: on them and the results. Yes, they're undefeated, but the

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Speaker 1: results I mean look arguably should have lost the Georgia

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Speaker 1: Tech Indiana, Like you barely beat Indiana, Indiana has almost

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Speaker 1: lost to acron at home. You beat BC, but you

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Speaker 1: should have lost to NC State, a team that ends

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Speaker 1: that notre name throttled if Brendan Armstrong, who's now benched.

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Speaker 1: I mean, think about the teams that Louisville has played.

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Speaker 1: Indiana fired their offensive coordinator. NC State has moved on

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Speaker 1: from their quarterback. At Georgia Tech's fired their defensive or

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Speaker 1: demoted their defensive coordinator. These are all teams that Louisville

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Speaker 1: barely beat. So look, there's some growing pains with that offense.

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Speaker 1: Plumber looked horrendous at NC State. The defense lost a

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Speaker 1: couple really key cogs last year from last year's team,

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Speaker 1: and I haven't really been that impressed. So yeah, I'm

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Speaker 1: conflicted here. It's like the spot is Louisville, but they're

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Speaker 1: a team that is on my radar to fade because

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Speaker 1: they're just such a fraudule at five and zero and

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Speaker 1: they have so many holes, so to me, this is

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Speaker 1: most likely a stay away. What are you seeing here

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Speaker 1: in this Top twenty five matchup seven to thirty easton

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Speaker 1: on ABC.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of reasons that have hesitation. Last week,

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Speaker 2: you and I waffled, right, We talked specifically that we

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Speaker 2: like Notre Dame at four and a half five, we

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Speaker 2: like Duke at plus seven, and look what happened in

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Speaker 2: that game. Louisville's not Duke. Louisville has warts. I mean,

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Speaker 2: their strength of schedule is one hundred and eight, but

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Speaker 2: when you look at this Notre Dame schedule, it's like

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Speaker 2: impossible to get behind them too, you know. And we

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Speaker 2: talked last week about this hangover effect that Freeman has

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Speaker 2: after he plays these big Top twenty five games. It

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Speaker 2: has showed up every single time, dating back to losing

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Speaker 2: the Marshall or losing to Stanford last year. Just struggles

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Speaker 2: covering and these big.

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Speaker 1: Games last week they should not have covered and they

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Speaker 1: probably should have lost. They were tired, And that's another question.

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Speaker 1: How tired is this team?

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Speaker 2: I mean, they played in freaking Ireland, they played in

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Speaker 2: Week zero. They I mean they've already had monster games

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Speaker 2: that already got tenth and strength of schedule and fifteenth

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Speaker 2: and strength to the record, these guys could really take off.

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Speaker 2: Notre even take the rest of the year off and

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Speaker 2: sled one of the best schedules in the nation. At

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Speaker 2: the end of the day, if Notre Dame is going

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Speaker 2: to tail off in a certain place, it's going to

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Speaker 2: be on defense. That makes me want to take an

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Speaker 2: over here. I do project a sixty three. Louisville is

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Speaker 2: going to be able to move the chains. Can they score?

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Speaker 2: I don't know. Notre Dame is you know, fantastic and

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Speaker 2: finishing drives are way better top twenty five than Louisville

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Speaker 2: has been against a softer schedule. I can't add Louisville

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Speaker 2: to my round robins. I can't add them. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if you play it, it's a spot play, that's all

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Speaker 2: it is. And I just don't know if Louisville has

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Speaker 2: the power to get this done.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I could play the spot if it's seven, I

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Speaker 1: can't at six six and a half.

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Speaker 2: How much are we hitting USC next week?

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Speaker 1: I mean, well, yeah, they don't depend on what happens

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Speaker 1: in both of these games. So let's talk USC USC

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Speaker 1: before heading to South Bend to take on Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: will host Arizona there laying a little over three touchdowns

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Speaker 1: over under as you might imagine sky high seventy two,

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Speaker 1: seventy two and a half. Big question here will Jaden

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Speaker 1: Dolores suit up for Arizona. Brafita has been serviceable in

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Speaker 1: his place, but or it gives this offense the highest ceiling.

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Speaker 1: All that doesn't matter who's a quarterback when you play

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Speaker 1: USC's defense. My thoughts on this game, Like, Arizona is

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Speaker 1: a competent offense, the defense is bad. They can't cover anybody.

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Speaker 1: But like if this USC team, they shouldn't be laying

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Speaker 1: over three touchdowns to anybody that has a competent offense

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Speaker 1: and Arizona's great receivers and especially if Dolaura comes back.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look the Arizona, the Arizona State offense woke

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Speaker 1: back up against USC. You saw what Colorado did. I mean,

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Speaker 1: even if you're down that Colorado was down twenty seven

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Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden they had a chance

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Speaker 1: to win the game. This USC defense is just atrocious.

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Speaker 1: So it's Arizona or nothing here, you got the spot,

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Speaker 1: especially if Delora plays. Some other injuries worth noting, but

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Speaker 1: do you see any reason why you would want to

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Speaker 1: lay over three touchdowns. But this USC defense, no, absolutely not.

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Speaker 2: I like the under. I want to find out Jade

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Speaker 2: Laura is playing. If he's not playing, I would really

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Speaker 2: like the under. I projected sixty nine. I think the

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Speaker 2: markets at seventy two is the time we're recording here.

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Speaker 2: There's no reason to blow them out. With such a

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Speaker 2: huge game on deck. Arizona could be without Jaden de Laura,

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Speaker 2: which takes a lot off of an offense you know

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Speaker 2: right now that is top fifteen and success right, whether

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Speaker 2: that's rush or pass. The one thing that I loved

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Speaker 2: about Colorado is I said that Shadora Sanders is perfect

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Speaker 2: to go up against the USC defense because all Colorado

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Speaker 2: is is a passing downs explosive machine. They love third

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Speaker 2: and twelve and bust them out a twenty yard and play.

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Speaker 2: That is not the Arizona offense. So far this year,

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Speaker 2: they are one hundred and thirtieth in passing downs explosives

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Speaker 2: on offense. So they're successful, they move the chains, but

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Speaker 2: they're not getting it in chunk yardage. They do not

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Speaker 2: have the EPA on offense that Colorado has.

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Speaker 1: I like the under in this game, all right, before

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Speaker 1: we get to the marquee matchups of the week. As

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Speaker 1: a reminder, the BBOC podcast is presented by Bett MGM

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Speaker 1: used bonus code action with signing up to get up

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Speaker 1: to fifteen hundred hours paid back in bonus bets if

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Speaker 1: your first bet loses four new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 1: Terms of conditions to apply must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. It's another fabulous

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Speaker 1: weekend of college football.

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Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up

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Speaker 2: bedding for week six.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's kick things off at noon with the

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Speaker 1: game everyone is going to have on their TV on

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Speaker 1: ABC and the Red River Rivalry Shootout, showdown, whatever you

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Speaker 1: want to call it. In Dallas between number twelve Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: and number three Texas both come into this game at

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Speaker 1: five and zero overall, Texas five and a half six

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Speaker 1: point favor Oklahoma's taken a little bit of money here.

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Speaker 1: I think there's a five as we're recording. This has

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Speaker 1: flashed at some places. Over Under has come way down

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Speaker 1: to sixty and a half from the soft open. If

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Speaker 1: you recall last year, Texas appsbsolutely throttled Oklahoma forty nine

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Speaker 1: and nothing. But there's not really much to take from

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Speaker 1: that game because Oklahoma tried to run like wildcat with

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Speaker 1: their third string quarterback and obviously ended up getting destroyed. Well,

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Speaker 1: when you look at both of these teams, obviously Texas

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Speaker 1: has better data points. They have the best win in

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Speaker 1: the country at Alabama in fairly dominant fashion. But Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: is certainly improved. I think just from the eye test,

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Speaker 1: you can see that their defense is definitely improved in

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Speaker 1: year two Underventables. The offense, like Gabriel, is playing clean football,

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Speaker 1: but there's there's just at times they get stuck in

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Speaker 1: the mud and there's just not the same explosive weapons

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Speaker 1: on the outside that you'll see Texas feature. You know,

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Speaker 1: and if you look like that. I've talked about this

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Speaker 1: a lot. That SMU game, it was fourteen to eleven

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Speaker 1: midway through the fourth quarter the Cincinnati game, you know,

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Speaker 1: twenty to six. Cincinnati really just shot themselves in the foot.

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Speaker 1: So you know, the offense didn't really explode against either defense.

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Speaker 1: Decent defenses, but nowhere close to the caliber of Texas.

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Speaker 1: When I look at this game, you know, I make

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Speaker 1: it close to a touchdown, So I don't love anything.

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Speaker 1: I actually lean the under all of the pace will

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Speaker 1: be pretty fast, especially with Oklahoma. You know what I

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma's there are two weaknesses from what I've seen, and

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Speaker 1: you know they've played a schedule where you know, not

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Speaker 1: no one really could exploit this. But their offensive line

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Speaker 1: still has some questions, and we saw what the Texas

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Speaker 1: defensive front did to Alabama, another team that has some

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Speaker 1: offensive line questions. And then the Oklahoma secondary I think

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Speaker 1: is the most vulnerable part of their defense. And Texas

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Speaker 1: certainly has the weapons to attack downfield. Now, can yours

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Speaker 1: have one of his good games? If he does, I

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Speaker 1: think Texas covers this game. If he doesn't, Oklahoma will

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Speaker 1: be right in it. But if I had to make

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Speaker 1: a prediction on this game, so you know I'm around

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Speaker 1: a touchdown keeps going down, I might play Texas, but

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Speaker 1: I have a sneaky feeling that it's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: close game. But I make it around a touchdown. I

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Speaker 1: have a sneaky fielding. Texas wins by three.

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Speaker 2: Unbelievable college football, the Big twelve.

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Speaker 1: What do you see in this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I may get Texas minus five. Boy. The market

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Speaker 2: move into this week it's just been crazy. It seems

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Speaker 2: like it's just getting faster and faster in the week two.

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Speaker 2: We used to get big moves on Friday, and now

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Speaker 2: they're happening on Monday. I've been in Red River shootouts

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Speaker 2: way too many times to know that I need a

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Speaker 2: TD with a dog, So that's what I'm gonna do now.

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Speaker 2: This morning, one of my.

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Speaker 1: Bad plus seven and a half in triple overtime.

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Speaker 2: This morning. It was at six and a half in

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Speaker 2: the market. I didn't think we're ever going to get

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Speaker 2: a seven. I didn't. I didn't know what who was

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Speaker 2: going to release any service plays to manipulate the mark,

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Speaker 2: but I knew it's six and a half. I had

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Speaker 2: to buy minus one twenty and I did two hours later,

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Speaker 2: like Thursday afternoon, early afternoon. This thing got walloped. Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: got nailed six and a half. Six is five and

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Speaker 2: a half five. I don't think it's ever coming back up.

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Speaker 2: I had a hard time with the analytics on this one,

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Speaker 2: because Oklahoma's strength of schedule is eighty. Second, they just

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Speaker 2: have not played the strength of schedule the Texas has,

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Speaker 2: especially with a win against Alabama now.

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Speaker 1: And the other thing is with Oklahoma's schedules, like they

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Speaker 1: played a couple decent teams and it didn't look great,

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Speaker 1: and then the bad teams they played they absolutely destroyed. Right,

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Speaker 1: So then you see your data points, like you app

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Speaker 1: you just the margin and you exceeded expectation. Put that

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Speaker 1: you were playing some backup quarterbacks and then the decent

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Speaker 1: teams you played you covered. But like it was a little.

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Speaker 2: Well, I wanted to there was one specific areacause I

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Speaker 2: don't think either team is going to be able to

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Speaker 2: run the ball. I know Jonathan Brooks had a big,

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Speaker 2: big weik Lass week, but against Kansas, it's Kansas defense.

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Speaker 2: I don't think either team is going to be able

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Speaker 2: to run the ball here, especially with her, and so

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Speaker 2: that's going to put each team behind the chains and

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Speaker 2: put them in passing downs. So I specified on that

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Speaker 2: stat and I gave this game like the National Championship treatment,

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Speaker 2: and so here's what I come up with passing downs explosives.

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Speaker 2: These teams are ninth and tenth ranked in the nation,

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Speaker 2: and when you look at the defenses, there is a

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Speaker 2: start contrast OU sixty eighth and defending it explosives and

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Speaker 2: passing downs Texas dead last, one hundred and thirty third.

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Speaker 2: I just shake my head, like this cannot be true.

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Speaker 2: So I want to go a little bit deeper into

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Speaker 2: that quarterbacks do well against certain type of coverages. Every

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Speaker 2: quarterback struggles with Cover two. Some thrive and quarters, some

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Speaker 2: not against Cover three, stuff like that. So when I

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Speaker 2: go and I look at it, OU has had heavy

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Speaker 2: success against quarters and Cover one. They've been above average

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Speaker 2: against Cover three, and that really kind of plays into

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Speaker 2: where Texas is. You know, they play a lot of

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Speaker 2: quarters and Cover one, which Dylan Gabriel has had a

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Speaker 2: lot of success against. When I flip it to the

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Speaker 2: other side, that's what really made this decision that I'm

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Speaker 2: playing OU. When you look at Texas's numbers, fantastic from

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Speaker 2: a success rate an EPA level against quarters coverage that

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Speaker 2: completely falls off the map against Cover three, Cover two,

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Speaker 2: and Cover one owe you only nineteen percent of coverage

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Speaker 2: of they spent in quarters. That is bad news for

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Speaker 2: quinn Ewers, who has been dreadful against cover one and

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Speaker 2: cover three. If OU is going to line up and

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Speaker 2: do those coverages, that is a huge thing for the Sooners.

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Speaker 2: I would still buy Oklahoma at five and a half.

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Speaker 2: I would stop buying it at five. I agree with you,

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Speaker 2: it's probably a three point game, but I do like

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Speaker 2: O you to cover?

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Speaker 1: Can yours have a clean game? And can he hit

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Speaker 1: those deep shots? And then how many deep shots is

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Speaker 1: the Texas defense going to allow? So you I think

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Speaker 1: it comes down to the nuances of both passing attacks.

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Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a fun one winner of

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Speaker 1: this game you could probably put in the Big twelve

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Speaker 1: championship right now. All right, let's move on to our

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Speaker 1: second marquee game of the day. Let's talk a little Alabama, Texas,

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Speaker 1: A and M. This games three point thirty Eastern on CBFS.

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Speaker 1: So this is you know, it's not the greatest overall

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Speaker 1: slate from a depth perspective, but your main TVs for

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Speaker 1: this day are are set like start at noon with

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Speaker 1: Texas Oklahoma, roll right in. You know, you keep your

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Speaker 1: bar volume on one on one TV. There's no question

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Speaker 1: what it's going to be. Three point thirty. You're going

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Speaker 1: right to CBS Alabama Texas A and M in college

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Speaker 1: station in front of the twelfth man, Texas A and

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Speaker 1: M down to one talk about money, moving took one

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Speaker 1: and a half. One one and a half, pointed out

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Speaker 1: my prediction. They closed a favorite over under has come

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Speaker 1: way down to forty six and a half currently from

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Speaker 1: soft open of I don't even I don't know if

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Speaker 1: there's a fifty five, but I think there was like

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Speaker 1: a fifty four out there. So TEXTA, A and M

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Speaker 1: has obviously taken a lot of money, a lot of

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Speaker 1: respected money, and I agree with it. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: know you and I both bet plus three on cheap

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Speaker 1: by earlier in the week. I think Texas A and

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Speaker 1: M wins this game. Alabama, we obviously saw what they

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Speaker 1: did against Texas and it was whoa. Yikes. There was

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Speaker 1: major problems again against South Florida. You know, they beat

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Speaker 1: All Miss, that's the spot of all spots at home

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Speaker 1: and it was a it's an old Miss team that

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Speaker 1: was severely shorthanded on offense, dealing with a ton of injuries.

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Speaker 1: And then you play Misstate, a team of Misstate. I

329
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Speaker 1: know you love Misstate, your boys, but misty team that

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Speaker 1: I'm way down on, and this final score was forty

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Speaker 1: to seventeen, but like it was just turnovers. There's a

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Speaker 1: miss State offense. I can't figure itself out the bad

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Speaker 1: offensive production. It's just not impressive right now. They are.

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Speaker 1: The defense is very good. I'll give them that. It's

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Speaker 1: still top five pedigree defense. But the offense has major

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Speaker 1: issues and it starts up front. We talked about this,

337
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Speaker 1: you know, two weeks ago you brought off the tackles

338
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Speaker 1: for loss at like that is very was very alarming

339
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Speaker 1: early on the amount of times that Bama was getting

340
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Speaker 1: tackle behind the line. And this has to be a

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Speaker 1: run centric offense with Jalen mill Milroe, but the offensive

342
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Speaker 1: line has major issues. That's basically you know, Quinnywys had

343
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Speaker 1: a great game, but that's basically what decided that Texas

344
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Speaker 1: Alabama game was that Texas defensive front just disrupted everything

345
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Speaker 1: that Alabama wants to do. I think that could be

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Speaker 1: the same story here. This Texas A and M defensive front,

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Speaker 1: and they've been great against the run all season. You

348
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Speaker 1: could beat them a little bit with some explosive passes.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Noil raw has a great deep ball. Maybe

350
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Speaker 1: he can hit one or two there. But I just

351
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Speaker 1: don't see it with this Alabama offense right now. Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M their offense look, they have some issues

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Speaker 1: on the offensive line as well. They're starting quarterbacks out.

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Speaker 1: We don't think there's much of a drop off to

355
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Speaker 1: Max Johnson. But the other biggest difference in this game

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Speaker 1: is that Texas A and M has a quarterback who's

357
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Speaker 1: a better passer overall the weapons. The difference in weapons

358
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Speaker 1: on the outside is significant in favor of Texas A

359
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,919
Speaker 1: and M. Alabama's wide receiver room, it's just no one

360
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,159
Speaker 1: has stuck out right, no one's making big plays. I

361
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,239
Speaker 1: just trust these Texas A and M receivers to make

362
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,920
Speaker 1: a couple more plays throwing the home field advantage. I

363
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,680
Speaker 1: think Texas A and M wins this game. I would

364
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Speaker 1: still play A plus one and a half then starts

365
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Speaker 1: to really be in the discussion for can they get

366
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Speaker 1: to the SEC Championship.

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Speaker 2: I like them too. I took a little bit of

368
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Speaker 2: a different route to come to that conclusion, but I

369
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Speaker 2: would still take Texas A and M and A pick

370
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Speaker 2: up Alabama.

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Speaker 1: Make I make them a small favor for its repka.

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Speaker 2: Alabama front seven not as good as Texas A and

373
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Speaker 2: M's If that's a place to attack, that's it. If

374
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Speaker 2: Texas A and M wants to move the ball, it's

375
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Speaker 2: going to have to be on the ground. And Bama's

376
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Speaker 2: D is ninety fourth and stuff right in fifty sixth

377
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 2: in the line yards and they have played some good offenses,

378
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,879
Speaker 2: so you know they can be pushed around down in

379
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Speaker 2: the trench, and I expect Texas A and M to

380
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,399
Speaker 2: do that. I don't expect a huge flash of points

381
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Speaker 2: from Texas A and M.

382
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Speaker 1: Here.

383
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 2: Max Johnson is not as mobile as Connor Wiegman, so

384
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Speaker 2: I do expect TEXA and to methodically get their points.

385
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,159
Speaker 2: Maybe not a whole lot of them, but I do

386
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Speaker 2: see them getting more points.

387
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Speaker 1: Now.

388
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Speaker 2: The real handicap for me, which you know had me

389
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Speaker 2: buying Texas A and M early this week, was the

390
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 2: fact that Texas A and M is number one in

391
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,240
Speaker 2: defensive HAVOC in the nation forty nine tackles for lost,

392
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Speaker 2: twenty five PBUs against this Alabama offensive line. That not

393
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 2: going to be good because Alabama one hundred and eleventh

394
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,520
Speaker 2: and havoc allowed mostly from allowing tackles for loss. They've

395
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 2: allowed thirty seven this year. But Jalen Milroe is going

396
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 2: to be in a crowded pocket. Whether that is running

397
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 2: RPO or whether that is passing, He's going to have

398
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Speaker 2: people all over him. Remember the handicap when we did

399
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 2: Alabama Texas back in Week two. Would Texas keep their

400
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 2: pass rush integrity? That's what Sark said, keeping the correct

401
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 2: lanes to keep Jaln Milroe from taking off. I think

402
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 2: Texas A and M is going to have supreme success

403
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: keeping their lanes in a pass rush mobile quarterbacks on

404
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 2: Texas A and M schedule, kJ Jefferson sacks seven times,

405
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 2: a net negative three yards, Robbie Ashford eight RPO attempts

406
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 2: twenty five yards, Tyler van Dyk never even ran, and

407
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 2: they didn't.

408
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,239
Speaker 1: Let Peyton Thorn run all over him like Georgia did.

409
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,399
Speaker 2: That's right. Do I think Texas A and M can

410
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 2: stop Jayalen Milroe from taking off out of the pocket. Absolutely.

411
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 2: I'm taking Texas A and M's defense to front seven

412
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 2: to have it give it all to me against that

413
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 2: Alabama offensive line.

414
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Speaker 1: They're going to win that trench battle. What does that

415
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 1: mean is going to happen in front of a raucous crowd.

416
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 1: Third and longs passing situations, you're gonna make Milroe throw

417
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 1: it in the intermedia outs, you know if that's gonna

418
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 1: lead you a key mistake or two, just like we

419
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,199
Speaker 1: saw against Texas and I think I agree with the undermove.

420
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 1: I think this will be a lower scoring game that

421
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Speaker 1: probably plays out like twenty twenty to seventeen, twenty three

422
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 1: to seventeen A and M. For what it's worth, we

423
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 1: also have seen this Alabama team struggle in true road

424
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Speaker 1: games over the past few seasons. Since two thousand and nine,

425
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 1: the Tide have gone just five and ten against the

426
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: spread and true road games, including two and five against

427
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 1: ranked opponents, all his favorites with an average spread of

428
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,199
Speaker 1: over ten points. They've lost three of those seven outright.

429
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 1: That doesn't even include the twenty twenty one loss at

430
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 1: Texas A and M, an underranked TEXTA A and M

431
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 1: team when Alabama was laying eighteen and a half. And

432
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Speaker 1: for what it's worth, Nick Saban is just seven and

433
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 1: thirteen against the spread, is a favorite of less than

434
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 1: a touchdown against SEC foes.

435
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 3: Everybody wants to beat us. We're gonna get everybody's best game.

436
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 3: I don't know why people can't understand that. When I

437
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 3: came here everybody was happy to win a game, all right.

438
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 3: Now we're not happy to win a game at all.

439
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,959
Speaker 1: So I agree all about the aggies. Gig them. All right,

440
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: let's talk about our last marquee game of the day,

441
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 1: and we're gonna go to primetime at seven Eastern Georgia

442
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 1: Kentucky Georgia fourteen and a half point favorite. Here, another

443
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 1: total that's come down a bit from the soft open,

444
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: down forty seven and a half forty eight. You know,

445
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: this is a really interesting game because Kentucky played nobody

446
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 1: to start the year, didn't look great doing so. Then

447
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 1: last week they exploded. And by day I mean Ray

448
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 1: Davis against Florida and dominant fashion.

449
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 2: And there is Ray Davis.

450
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 3: He's a guy transferring over from Vanderbilt nine months ago.

451
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 3: When he jumped in the portal, everybody wanted it eleven

452
00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 3: years ago as a foster kid.

453
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 1: Really nobody wanted to Georgia meanwhile has Yeah, they haven't

454
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 1: really played anyone either, and they haven't really looked that impressive.

455
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 1: They continue to just be flat early in games. I

456
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 1: mean every single game there And this is what I

457
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 1: said last week would happen against Auburn. They'll come out

458
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:17,640
Speaker 1: flat and they'll be down like seven to ten nothing

459
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: at the end of the first quarter. Guess what, ten

460
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 1: nothing at the end of the first quarter. I make

461
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 1: this right around two touchdowns. I don't have a side

462
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 1: that I'm like, this is what you have to play.

463
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: I do have that. The spot says, Georgia. But will

464
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 1: Georgia wake up? Like you assume that teams would wake

465
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 1: up after like bad performances. You would expect Georgia to

466
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 1: come out here, especially how I'm full a lernt here

467
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: at home at night in Athens between the hedges. After

468
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: what Kentucky did last week. The spot says, Okay, George

469
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: is gonna be ready here because I do have some

470
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 1: concerns for Kentucky. So Kentucky's offense has lived on explosives

471
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 1: all year, and it's been very inefficient down to down.

472
00:23:56,560 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 1: There's three reasons for that. One is there's been some

473
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 1: offensive line reshuffling. They're getting better in that aspect. Two,

474
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 1: Devin Leary's dealing with this mechanical issue post injury, where

475
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 1: he's just not that accurate, especially early on in games

476
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 1: number three, there's a ton of wide receiver drops, so

477
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 1: like they're relying on these explosive plays. Now, last week,

478
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: what they relied on was ray Davis lining up and

479
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 1: just getting the ball and going right at Florida right

480
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 1: and just running down their throat all day. I don't

481
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 1: think you're gonna be able to do that against Georgia.

482
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: And you can't really get explosive plays against this Georgia defense.

483
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 1: It's very hard for me to see Kentucky sustaining drives

484
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 1: and getting all the explosives. It really comes down to,

485
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 1: like Ken ray Davis put this team on his back

486
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 1: again against a Georgia defense that you would think, right

487
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,719
Speaker 1: with all the talent they have, would show up here

488
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 1: after last week where they're kind of embarrassed against an

489
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 1: ALB team that can't complete a four pass. So that's

490
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 1: what really worries me. And then the issues for Leary

491
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: are really early on, so if you get down on

492
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 1: this then it could get ugly quick and then you

493
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: can't really stick to the run. And then on the

494
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 1: other side of the ball, I'm not totally sold on

495
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: Carson back yet, but this Kentucky defense lost some key

496
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 1: pieces from last year they haven't really been testing. I mean,

497
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: look at the quarterbacks they faced. Graham Mertz, is far

498
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 1: and away the best quarterback that they faced. They've also

499
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 1: played in the friendly confines of Kirkerfield and Lexicentucky the

500
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 1: entire year, so this is a little a little bit different,

501
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: a big step up in class. So the spot and

502
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 1: my gut says Georgia, but I make it around two touchdowns,

503
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 1: so I won't be betting it. But what do you

504
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 1: see here?

505
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 2: I'm in the same place as you. The gut tells me,

506
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 2: don't look at anything. Just bet Georgia, cowardly. If you

507
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 2: want to buy that hook and get it down to fourteen,

508
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 2: do it. But I think I'm in the minority on

509
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: the total here. I have bet on the total and

510
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 2: I haven't bet on the side yet. And I project

511
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 2: this game to be in the fifties from a total.

512
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 2: And I think it's important to know that, you know,

513
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 2: when we put those out, Mine is a net yards

514
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 2: per play, finished drives and pace. That's how we got there.

515
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 2: And I think this is a lesson for everybody out

516
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 2: there that's new to the handicapping world. I see a

517
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 2: lot of people on Twitter making arguments and graphics and

518
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 2: doing everything around explosiveness. I got news for everybody. Explosiveness

519
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 2: does not win ball games. It doesn't. There is no

520
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 2: correlation to covering and winning two explosives. And I say

521
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 2: that as Kentucky is number one in the nation and

522
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:31,719
Speaker 2: rush explosives this season. Georgia's thirty eighth and defending rush explosives.

523
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: So that's all Kentucky has. They gonna be able to

524
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 2: sustain that all game and get an outright victory doing that.

525
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 2: No explosives do not equal outright victories.

526
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: And I think this game is George's defense also does

527
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 1: a good job of prevenny explosives.

528
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: Absolutely, Kirby's going to have him amped up. Kirby's going

529
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 2: to coach him up after that performance against Auburn, like

530
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, the Georgia defense is like binary,

531
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 2: it's either on or off. They have fallen off and

532
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 2: letting people run up to the line of scrimmage. We'll

533
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 2: see if that gets turned around. George has allowed nineteen

534
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 2: rushing attempts to exceed ten yard cards already this year.

535
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: And if we had motivation now against Kentucky, why didn't

536
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 2: we have motivation against South Carolina or against Auburn last week?

537
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 2: So I understand it, but I do think Kentucky's going

538
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 2: to get enough points to get over this total. It's

539
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 2: down to forty seven. Forty seven and a half. Forty

540
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 2: eight was key. I really like the overbetter below forty eight.

541
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 2: Kentucky plays a mix of Cover three and they mix

542
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 2: in a little quarters. Georgia has smoked Cover three and

543
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty snaps against it this year. Their

544
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 2: success rate in explosiveness has been better than any other coverage.

545
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 2: They do not do well against Cover two. Kentucky doesn't

546
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 2: run Cover two. I think Georgia against their points. I

547
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 2: think they cover this spread and I think we get

548
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 2: over the total. Maybe that's forty eight, maybe that's forty nine.

549
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 2: I think we're getting over this total. Yeah.

550
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 1: I would also say, like, look at some point Georgia

551
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: is who they are, this complacency, which I it's not

552
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 1: even just I'm going on small sample size. I said

553
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 1: this was going to be an issue coming into the year,

554
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 1: right and after everything I was reading at just what

555
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 1: I was thinking about this team, and that's played out

556
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:01,239
Speaker 1: every single game. So you said, why would they hit

557
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 1: the on switch and come out on fire to start

558
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 1: this game? So if you like Georgia, they've showed you

559
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 1: over and over again that they're going to be down

560
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 1: in the.

561
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 2: First quarter neutral point differential in the first quarter, thirteen

562
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 2: plus in the second and third quarter for point differential.

563
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 1: I'm staying away pregame, but go Cats, all right, before

564
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 1: we get to rapid Fire to cover a bunch of

565
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 1: more games, I do want to remind everyone to make

566
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 1: sure you check out the group of five guys Mike

567
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: and Mike, Mike Calabrese and Mike Ianella on the Group

568
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: of five deep Dive every Wednesday morning here on BBOC

569
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: talking all things. Group of five at jack State last night.

570
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 1: And I know they like mine of Ohio two and

571
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 1: they talk. I think they break out Wyoming Fresno, which

572
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: we'll talk about shortly. But they always do a great

573
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 1: job and it's not too long like us. They don't

574
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: ramble too much, so it's an easy listen to shout

575
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: to Mike and Mike. All right, let's get to rapid

576
00:28:56,280 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 1: Fire here, rapid Fire, let's talk quickly about your boys.

577
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 1: You're ls LSU boys who can't stop a nosebleed. There's

578
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: so bad defense defenses. It's uh, it's troubling here. It

579
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 1: just means more they are I mean, you could just

580
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: go you could just keep going into advanced metrics. We won't.

581
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: They're just all horrific, is all you need to know.

582
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 1: LSU was Missouri has taken some money here else. He's

583
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: down to a four and a half point favorite. Over

584
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 1: over under has gone up. If you like bet low

585
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: limits and bet way early in the week. I think,

586
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: for like the time being, whenever an LSU game comes out,

587
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 1: just bet the over, and I'm sure that's you're gonna

588
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 1: get a ton of CLV. The offense is humming along.

589
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: Daniels Is Jane ems Is playing at a very high level,

590
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 1: but the problem is their games are just okay, who

591
00:29:54,360 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 1: has the ball last? Essentially and the maybe that's I

592
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 1: don't know, how's it not.

593
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 2: They're the live betting champions of the world, is what

594
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 2: they are? How's that not?

595
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: I mean, Brady Cook's playing well from Missouri. Now there's

596
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: been some explosiveness now in that offense. So tell me

597
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: why this game shouldn't be any different than every other

598
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: LC game we saw this year.

599
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 2: I can't handle it. I mean, like I just I've

600
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 2: been sitting around for four days, like what is this total?

601
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 2: I can't figure this to like who's betting the under

602
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: on this total. Who moved this from sixty five down

603
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 2: to sixty three and a half. I didn't get that

604
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 2: at all. But you know, I'm not going to go

605
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 2: through LC's stats. They're bad, it's red, it's gross, it's

606
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 2: worse than mac teams. Let's just put it that way.

607
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 2: And when you look at the Missouri side, they are

608
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 2: humming Luther Burton. We talked about this on the New

609
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 2: BCS show. Luther Burton is the number one graded wide

610
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 2: receiver of I mean, I think of all targets right

611
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 2: now in PFF, four point eight yards per route run

612
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 2: two is considered explosive. I don't think I've ever seen

613
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 2: a wide receiver with this many And I'm thinking, like

614
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 2: Marvin Harrison at BUKA, like I'm really going through the

615
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 2: gambit of the big wide receivers. Last couple of years,

616
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: I have not seen a number like four point eight.

617
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 2: He moved into the slot this year. That's going to

618
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 2: give him slot corner sage. Ryan. He had sixty five

619
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 2: snaps last week for LSU. He was tired. He's been

620
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 2: targeted fourteen times this year. He's allowed eleven catches, averaging

621
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 2: ten point two yards and he has not recorded a PVU.

622
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 2: So what does that mean? The biggest weapon for Missouri

623
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 2: is going to run wild. Brady Cook has not thrown

624
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 2: an interception this year. He's eleven to two big time

625
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 2: throw to turnover worthy plays. And oh, by the way,

626
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 2: Missouri's defense struggles in scoring opportunities too, Like they're actually

627
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 2: not that bad in defense, especially against the rush. They

628
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 2: should give Jayden Daniels a little bit of problems with

629
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 2: the zone read, but when it comes to defending the pass,

630
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 2: holy cow, LSU is going to get theirs. Missouri is

631
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 2: also one hundred and thirteenth in defensive finishing drives, and

632
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 2: you know that is a big stat for me when

633
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: it comes to betting on totals. If you're just giving

634
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 2: points away when teams get across the forty, I'm going

635
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 2: to bet an over on you. So, considering that Missouri

636
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 2: has allowed thirteen or fourteen opponent red zone drives to score,

637
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 2: I wanted the over and this pretty bad. So I

638
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 2: have already bet Missouri. I think I've got some six

639
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 2: five and a half. I've got both and I'm gonna

640
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 2: come back, I think, I said in the notes on

641
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 2: the action app I'm going to come back and bet

642
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 2: LSG live when the time is right. But I want

643
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 2: the over in this game, and I think as you

644
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 2: and I are podcast, I'm I'm gonna throw some money

645
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 2: down and put in the app because I just these numbers.

646
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 2: The defense is don't stop anybody in scoring position, and

647
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 2: it's going to be a pass heavy game. So I'm

648
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 2: just gonna take the over. If it loses, I'll be shocked,

649
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 2: but I won't. You know, there'll be other bad beats,

650
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna take the over. This sixty five is

651
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 2: pretty key if you can get under that, do that.

652
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've been really impressed with the Missouri offense. You know,

653
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: early in the year, they there was just no explosiveness.

654
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: They weren't thrown downfield. That was against Middle Tennessee and

655
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 1: South Dakota. I just think they weren't they weren't showing

656
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: a lot.

657
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 2: That's his only sorry, that's his only two turnover worthy plays.

658
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 2: Brady Cooks two turnover worthy plays against Middle Tennessee. No

659
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 2: other team.

660
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we talked about Drick Whattz gave up play calling, right,

661
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: and I was hopeful that the offense will be better.

662
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 1: And then after the first two games, I was extremely skeptical,

663
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 1: and then since then it's the the output has been

664
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: very promising and that offense is as you said, homming

665
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 1: along right now. So yeah, I mean, look, taking taking

666
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: Missouri in the points over a field goal against the

667
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: SLAC team in the game that probably comes down to

668
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 1: the wire, I don't think is a bad IDEA decent

669
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: decent like ground robin, because like just the variants in

670
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 1: this game, you can throw Missouri potential round robin piece

671
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: book ahead.

672
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 2: No, I mean, it's definitely a note for the futures

673
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 2: for us that Kirby Moore didn't flash anything in non conference. Yeah,

674
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,479
Speaker 2: he waited till what Kansas State to show his real offense.

675
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 2: So that's something to bookmark for next year that I'm

676
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 2: not taking Missouri in these shit games.

677
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: Yep. Yeah, huge, one of the biggest games in recent

678
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: memory for Missouri, who looked as the Tigers look to

679
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 1: move to six and zero on the season. All right,

680
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: let's move on to another game in the SCC, and

681
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 1: let's talk a little Hogs. Arkansas eleven and a half

682
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 1: point underdog here over under sitting at sixty three ish.

683
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 1: I think the under has taken a tiny bit of money,

684
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: you know, ole mess coming off that absolute war with LSU.

685
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: Arkansas meanwhile, sitting at two and three on the season.

686
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: You know, they've lost back to back games to actually

687
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:44,800
Speaker 1: they've lost three straight to BYU. LSU and texts A

688
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 1: and M been on this. You know they were close,

689
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: They were really close against LSU. BYU is kind of

690
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 1: an unlucky loss. So from a spot perspective, like this

691
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: is this is similar to like Arkansas and LSU, right, Like,

692
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 1: is this line getting a little too high? Is this

693
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 1: a good Bilows spot and a little little maybe Old

694
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 1: Miss comes out a little flat here, But I trust you.

695
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 1: And what's going on down on Hogbill.

696
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 2: Woo pick suey absolute dumpster fire, dumpster fine.

697
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: I don't know how we win a game the rest

698
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: of the year, just blowing program up.

699
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 2: Give us a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football. Yeah,

700
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 2: Hogville's pissed. Hogvill's got pitchforks out. They're ready to I

701
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 2: mean they are ready to fire Sam Pittman for hiring

702
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 2: a friend. You know, Sam Pitman and Danny nos I

703
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 2: know we said this on the preseason pod. They were

704
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 2: together in twenty fifteen. Arkansas's offense in twenty fifteen with

705
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 2: Buddha Collins and what Brandon Allen, they were number two

706
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 2: in the nation a sp plus offense. Sam Pittman left

707
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 2: the program over to Georgia and Danny Noos turned in

708
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 2: two of the worst Arkansas offenses ever in twenty sixteen

709
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 2: and twenty seventeen. Danny Noos likes really slow developing plays

710
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,879
Speaker 2: and that is a complete contrast to what Kendall Browns does.

711
00:35:57,239 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: I mean, Arkansas's down to thirty seconds per play. I

712
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 2: mean were they had twenty three last year. The group

713
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 2: that has really suffered is the offensive line. And if

714
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 2: Sam Pimman's going to get fired, it's because of this

715
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 2: offensive line. So he comes in this week on Monday

716
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 2: and he says, we're switching all the positions preseason. All

717
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 2: American center Bo Limmer moves out of center. He goes

718
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 2: to left guard, and right tackle Patrick Cutis, who is

719
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 2: a wanted man in Fayetteville, he moves down to center.

720
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 2: So they've taken the right tackle down to center. He's

721
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 2: never played center before, he doesn't have any experience last

722
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 2: year and kJ Is said all week, we're just trying

723
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 2: to give him confidence. I'm just trying to get him confidence.

724
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: I'm like, this is not what I want to be hearing.

725
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: Unbelievably bad at right tackle. Allowed three sacks, he's allowed

726
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 2: ten hurries, he has allowed fourteen pressures already. It's the

727
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 2: same five, but they've juggled three of them into different spots.

728
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,320
Speaker 2: What are we going to get out of Arkansas? It

729
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 2: could be a complete failure, or they could just be

730
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 2: hitting plays all over the place. I would not be

731
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 2: surprised to see them come out and be hot. I

732
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 2: love point point point, and I wouldn't be surprised that

733
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 2: they came out completely flat and couldn't control anything. Now,

734
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,760
Speaker 2: if I can't handicap the Arkansas offense because this offensive

735
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 2: line is a complete and utter disaster, it's an Ole

736
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 2: Miss team total play over for me. I'm taking the

737
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: Arkansas offense completely out of this equation.

738
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 1: I get it.

739
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 2: I got a bunch of texts from people that you

740
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 2: and I run around with that are like, we got

741
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,880
Speaker 2: to play Arkansas. It's the spot. I don't bet on

742
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 2: teams that implement a new center, and that center is

743
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 2: the worst offensive lineman in the group. Can't do it.

744
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 2: So Ole Miss team total over for me, well.

745
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 1: Up the program. It was the death sentence, all right.

746
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 1: Moving on to Maryland, Ohio State Buckeyes coming off of

747
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 1: a bye after that, Notre Dame Thriller taking on a

748
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 1: undefeated five in a oh Maryland squad Ohio State twenty

749
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 1: point favorites here over under fifty seven. I can tell

750
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: you historically, if you're into trends, whenever there's like two

751
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 1: undefeated teams, especially two ranked teams, and the spread is

752
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: seventeen or more, the favorite do is have a ton

753
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 1: of success? Usually the line is that high for a reason.

754
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 1: I'm not into lane twenty with you know, against the

755
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 1: competent team with Kyle McCord and this offense that I'm

756
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 1: still not fully sold on. But I'm not running the

757
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 1: back of Maryland here. I maybe you could talk me

758
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 1: off of it, but I'm think I'm going to bet

759
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 1: the under here. If you look at what Maryland has done,

760
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: they played nobody by the way, they played absolutely nobody.

761
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: And the offense has been the offensive is what it

762
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 1: usually is, right like you're going to get a ton

763
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 1: of explosive plays. It's not really that efficient, but it's

764
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 1: been so inconsistent. I think that this Ohio State defense

765
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 1: is significantly improved, there's still some I still think they're

766
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 1: a bit undervalued in the market on that side of

767
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 1: the ball. I think the offense is a bit overvalued

768
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:41,959
Speaker 1: because of all their weapons, and I'm just not sold

769
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 1: on the cord and some of the offensive line issues. Yet.

770
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,959
Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at what what is Ohio State?

771
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 1: They any team of a pulse this year? If Notre

772
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 1: Dame doesn't drop a wide of an interception or plays

773
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 1: with eleven men, they score ten points. They only score

774
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: twenty three against Indiana. Does McCord this all Ohio State

775
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 1: fans has said? Oh? Yeah, but the final drive it

776
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 1: made one throw like he's gonna be confident now, Like what? Like, No,

777
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 1: that's not a thing. But did does Day figure out

778
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:10,439
Speaker 1: some things off the buy? Right? You have two weeks

779
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 1: to prepare and he's a young kid, so they got that.

780
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 1: A little bit scares me. But I really do trust

781
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 1: the Ohio State defense. The numbers are there. I don't

782
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: think that Maryland's going to be able to rely on

783
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,720
Speaker 1: explosives as much as they happen. And look, the offense

784
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 1: has even been inconsistent already against subpar competition. I mean,

785
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 1: they'ven't played to any defense yet Indiana, Michigan State, Virginia,

786
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,720
Speaker 1: Charlotte and Talsand I mean, and then some of those haves,

787
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 1: like the offense was stuck and then they just have

788
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: these explosis which I don't think they're going to get

789
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 1: against Ohio State. I think the Maryland defense can at least,

790
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 1: you know, stop the floodgates from opening like you see

791
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 1: sometimes in these Ohio State games in the past, where

792
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 1: this would be you know, forty eight to seventeen. So

793
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 1: I think this profile is more like a thirty five

794
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 1: seventeen game than a you know, forty five twenty four

795
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:04,840
Speaker 1: game which you might have seen in the past between

796
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 1: Ohio State and Maryland. So yeah, I'm leaning under here.

797
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: I just think Ohio State's defense is still a bit underbied,

798
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 1: and I still don't trust the offense. Fully, what do

799
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:12,359
Speaker 1: you see here?

800
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 2: I think Ohio State is absolutely going to roll them. Now,

801
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 2: I don't power rate it as high as the market is,

802
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 2: but I just feel like we get a hold into

803
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 2: this every single year. Look at the series between these two,

804
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 2: you know, last year forty three to thirty, okay, then

805
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 2: sixty six to seventeen seventy three to fourteen, sixty two

806
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:30,919
Speaker 2: to fourty. I mean these numbers are.

807
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 1: That's what scares me to bet the under because every

808
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 1: time Ohio State plays Maryland these were one hundred points.

809
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 2: It's like a get healthy game. You know, It's like

810
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 2: they see the Terrapins on the schedule and that they

811
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 2: circle it. It's our get healthy game. I don't know

812
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 2: what it is about this one, but I mean on

813
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,359
Speaker 2: history alone, you would just bet the over. Sharp money

814
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 2: came in and at fifty eight on the under though,

815
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 2: so that you know, we'll see how the market reacts.

816
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,799
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're shaping it or what's going

817
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 2: on with it, but you know two changes with this

818
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 2: version of Maryland. They're not making mistakes. They're fourteenth and

819
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 2: havoc allowed, and they have very poor pass explosives and

820
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 2: passing down explosive numbers, and that may hurt them here

821
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 2: in this game. Ohio State's coverage is graded fifth by PFF.

822
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 2: They have a much higher strength of schedule than Maryland.

823
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 2: I mean, Ohio State's not great at fifty first, they

824
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 2: have played Notre Dame. Maryland has played nobody. Their strength

825
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 2: of schedule is one hundred and twenty second, and it's

826
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:19,400
Speaker 2: hard to even trust.

827
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,240
Speaker 1: Some of these Maryland numbers because it's like they've played clowns.

828
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,720
Speaker 2: I am looking at a market that's floating what nineteen

829
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: and a halves and twenty and a halves out there?

830
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 2: I bet you this close is closer to twenty one.

831
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:31,800
Speaker 2: I think I didn't make this my overdog, but I

832
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:33,439
Speaker 2: think Ohio State is the play on the side.

833
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's with the markets. TONI and I agree, it's

834
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 1: probably gonna Ohia State's probably gonna keep taking money. Two

835
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 1: other quick ones for rapid fire. Let's talk two undefeated teams.

836
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 1: UNC is hosting Syracuse. Syracuse off that Clemson pretty convincing loss.

837
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 1: UNC remains undefeated on the season, and then we have

838
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 1: Fresno State, now ranked five to OHO. They had to

839
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:59,359
Speaker 1: Laramie to take on Wyoming, where weird things happen. They're

840
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 1: laying six on the road. Presno State has taken some

841
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 1: money since open. What are your thoughts on either of

842
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: these two games? Do you like any side?

843
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean Garrett Trader is the big one for me.

844
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 2: I want to bet Syracuse pretty bad. I don't think

845
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 2: the numbers should be nine and a half. It won't

846
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:14,439
Speaker 2: be nine and a half if Garrett Trader is there,

847
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 2: but he is in concussion protocol. Carlos del Rio Wilson

848
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 2: three tds to no I INT's. He's had seventy dropbacks

849
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 2: last season in terms of experience, but he just he

850
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 2: doesn't have Garrett Trader's wheels, which are kind of important

851
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 2: here and you and C has struggled on defense against

852
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 2: the rush. They can't stop ground explosives whatsoever. And the

853
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:35,359
Speaker 2: Orange are thirty seventh and rush EPA. But that's all

854
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 2: on Schrader's legs. He's had thirteen runs of ten and more.

855
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 2: He averages four point four yards after contact and his

856
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 2: twenty eight missed tackles easily lead the team. You don't

857
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 2: see a quarterback creating that many mistackles. So Syracuse U

858
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 2: and C is completely a Garrett Trader bet if he's

859
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 2: not there. I like the under in that game is

860
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 2: when it comes to Fresno State and Wyoming, there's just

861
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 2: again a monster discrepancy and strength to schedule. Fresno is

862
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 2: getting so much love of everywhere for this fantastic defense.

863
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:04,720
Speaker 2: They're one hundred and seventeenth in the nation and strength

864
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 2: of schedule. I mean they have what do we got here?

865
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 2: Perdue first game. I think this is what kills me

866
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 2: about this Presno team, And I really wish people talking

867
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 2: out of my TV were smarter. Right, here's Fresno's schedule

868
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 2: Perdue game one, new offense, new coach, Eastern Washington, new coach,

869
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 2: new offense, Arizona State.

870
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 1: Also they also won those both those games by three each.

871
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, Arizona State, new coach, new offense, Kent State, new coach,

872
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 2: new offense, then Nevada Okay Ken Wilson's in year two.

873
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 2: But is it really year two?

874
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: I don't think it is.

875
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 2: And you're bas in Fresno's defensive numbers on that. I

876
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,840
Speaker 2: like Wyoming. I prefer an under forty five here he

877
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 2: numbers in the range forty five to forty one. It's

878
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 2: kind of gone under down. I think forty three. I

879
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 2: like the under here. I don't believe in mikey Keane's

880
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 2: numbers for Fresno. They are not as good as advertised.

881
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 2: Don't let the people talking in your TV tell you

882
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:57,280
Speaker 2: that Fresno State has a great defense because they've played nobody.

883
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see you and look, by the way, I

884
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:02,879
Speaker 1: should have mentioned that this is the time of the year.

885
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 1: We'll spend more time on it in future weeks, but

886
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 1: this time you e will win starts to become a

887
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: potential hindrance to offenses and kickers. So if you see

888
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 1: a lot of under Mouney, especially earlier in the week

889
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:18,600
Speaker 1: in certain regions, a lot of Matt games will always

890
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 1: fit here. But Laramie or Larade as some like to

891
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:27,800
Speaker 1: call it, that's one of the wind capitals of the country,

892
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 1: So you always want to pay attention to games in

893
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: Wyoming for the weather. You also, you know, every once

894
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 1: in a while you'll have like a foot of snow,

895
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:40,720
Speaker 1: so weird things happen there. So yeah, I wouldn't disagree

896
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 1: with trusting the pokes there at home, all right. Before

897
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 1: we get to some trash, quick reminder, I got a

898
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 1: few messages after my NFL podcast with Chris Raybaun asking

899
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 1: about the Action Discord server. If you want to know

900
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 1: where to find the best lines for a guy Sean

901
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:58,279
Speaker 1: Kerner for his NFL prop bets before they move a

902
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:00,359
Speaker 1: ton every time we release them, or his live that's

903
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 1: just join actions Free Discord server. That's the best place

904
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:09,840
Speaker 1: basically you can if you're there. It's a way to

905
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 1: get the best prices before they move when Sean releases them,

906
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 1: and you can just hang out with personalities like Shawan myself.

907
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:19,839
Speaker 1: I'm going to start doing some stuff there, especially as

908
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 1: we get into college basketball. You can just chop it

909
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 1: up for events like Thursday Night Football, the end of

910
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 1: a college football slate, end of a college basketball states.

911
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 1: We're going to start to do a lot more things

912
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 1: there with our personalities, including myself. So you just need

913
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,720
Speaker 1: an invitation link and the discord app so if you're interested,

914
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:43,760
Speaker 1: we'll drop an article link in the description of this episode,

915
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:45,239
Speaker 1: so make sure you check that out. We're doing a

916
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 1: lot of things there. Look forward to chopping it up

917
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 1: with some of you on there in the near future.

918
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to some trash the trash man

919
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 1: pick of the week. I'm the trash man. Just throw

920
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 1: me the trash and you know it, totally unreliable, undependable

921
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 1: of it. That's it. You've been told off. How do

922
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 1: you like that?

923
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 2: Good?

924
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 1: Sadly, I don't have a ton this week. I was

925
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 1: looking at futures, future weeks, and there's gonna be some

926
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 1: I think if I can project right there's gonna be

927
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 1: some ugly trash. Let's start with Georgia Tech. They just

928
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:23,879
Speaker 1: lost a bowling green taking on the Miami machine. I'm

929
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 1: taking Georgia Tech. It sucks, it's ugly. Look, the Georgia

930
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: Tech offense has been fine. Ames King has been playing

931
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 1: really well. The offense is humming along. I love their

932
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. Scoring points has not been an issue. And

933
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: by the way, this is the Georgia Tech team that

934
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 1: could have beat Louisville. They were right there with Old

935
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 1: Miss on the road until like the final five minutes

936
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 1: when Lane scored three touchdowns for no reason. The offense

937
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 1: will be fine, and that's basically the handicap for me

938
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: is that, Look, Miami's off a bye. They got North

939
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 1: Carolina next week. I think they might be a little

940
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 1: sleepy here, like just looking ahead, they got Georgia Tech.

941
00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech, for whatever reason, always goes down to Miami,

942
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,320
Speaker 1: even with way worse teams, and the game is always weird,

943
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 1: and like it ends by Benz that they could buy

944
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 1: a field goal. I think the last three it ended

945
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 1: by one point two points and seven points in Miami

946
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 1: against bad, bad Georgia Tech teams. But I just think

947
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:16,839
Speaker 1: that it could be a little sleepy spot for Miami.

948
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 1: I know that even off of a bye and I

949
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 1: think Georgia Tech will come out fully focused after an

950
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 1: embarrassing loss. And by the way, that's not the first

951
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 1: time Georgia Tech has suffered an embarrassing loss. And they

952
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: also down the Citadel a few years ago. If you recalled,

953
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 1: they lost to Northern Illinois two years ago at home,

954
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: and then after that they covered three straight and including

955
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 1: they destroyed North Carolina. A rank was pull on team

956
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: and they also went down to Clemson. After that Northern

957
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 1: Illinois loss. No one gave them a shot. Do you

958
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: remember this game? And they almost won. It was like

959
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 1: thirteen to eight. So I think you'll get I like

960
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 1: this staff. The only person I don't like on the

961
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 1: staff is their defensive coordinator, who, by the way, they demoted.

962
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 1: I mean, their defense has been a disaster. So the

963
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator got fired. They got demoted to I don't know,

964
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 1: like the right defensive end coach. Some for so new

965
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, you're gonna get some a little new wrinkles,

966
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 1: maybe a motivated unit, get some new guys in there.

967
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 1: Can't get worse. So maybe there's some upside there, but

968
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 1: Miami's gonna score. There's no question there. I just think

969
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech this numbers a little inflated, and Georgia Tech

970
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: can score enough and if needed, get in the back door,

971
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:28,240
Speaker 1: which they ow say after the Old Miss debacle, agree

972
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 1: or disagree, I.

973
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 2: Am going to let you do this one on your own.

974
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 2: I went through this Georgia Tech Bowling Green box score

975
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 2: a billion times like I just could not figure it out.

976
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 2: And finally it became crystal clear. Georgia Tech got armied. Right,

977
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 2: Bowling Green pulled an Army did a ball for the

978
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 2: entire game. Yeah, forty three minutes of possession. They got

979
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,919
Speaker 2: up fourteen zero, and then Bowling Green went army. I've

980
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,479
Speaker 2: never heard of a good, a great comeback story saying

981
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 2: let's adopt the army offense. They went forty three minutes

982
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:03,839
Speaker 2: of possession. They had scoring drives where the plays were ten, eleven, ten,

983
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 2: seven to ten, and there was a pick six in

984
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 2: there to make the score look really ugly. The national

985
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,440
Speaker 2: average for methodical drives is about one out of every

986
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:16,880
Speaker 2: nine possessions. Bowling Green had four methodical drives out of eleven,

987
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 2: and I think it goes back to your story about

988
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:22,440
Speaker 2: the defensive coordinators, Like, I mean, Buster Faulkner, the offensive cordinator,

989
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:24,720
Speaker 2: is great. I mean he is going to be hired

990
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 2: at a bigger program with a lot more money here soon.

991
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 2: But the defense scares me against Miami because they can

992
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 2: be methodical. They have the twelfth lowest percentage of three

993
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 2: and ounce in the nation. They're fourth nationally in drives

994
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 2: that exceed fifty yards. They're third offensively in quality drives.

995
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 2: So I don't think it's really their style to methodically

996
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 2: beat you and just kind of slowly move the chains.

997
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 2: So that should give Georgia Tech's offense time to score

998
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:51,840
Speaker 2: and maybe backdooring have enough points here. But I'm going

999
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 2: to set out because that bowling green, I mean that

1000
00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech defense got armied, and I don't know there's

1001
00:49:58,520 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 2: some residual there.

1002
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:03,320
Speaker 1: Good luck, Thank you, Florida Atlantic. We're gonna go with

1003
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:05,800
Speaker 1: the Owls here. I got a bad number. I like

1004
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 1: three and a half. You can get a three now,

1005
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,720
Speaker 1: which obviously I love even more. They're taking on Tulsa.

1006
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 1: I think it's a bypoint for FAU. I think it's

1007
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: the bottom of the market. Look, they lost to Ohio.

1008
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:18,240
Speaker 1: Clemson in an Illinois non conference is very brutal non conference,

1009
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 1: especially after you lose your quarterback. They could have beat Illinois,

1010
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:23,839
Speaker 1: they could have beat Ohio, and you know, they lost

1011
00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:27,840
Speaker 1: to Clemson in a horrendous spot on the road, and

1012
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:29,800
Speaker 1: then they have a bye week. I think this is

1013
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 1: the bottom of the market on there. Daniel Richardson more

1014
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 1: than capable as quarterback, and now you get two weeks

1015
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 1: to prepare the offense with him under center, and then

1016
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 1: you're going up against the pass defense that PFF Frank's

1017
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 1: seventh worst in coverage. So I think FAU will score here.

1018
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 1: You could get Tulsa could get their quarterback back, but

1019
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think it makes much of a difference.

1020
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:54,719
Speaker 1: There also could be some rust there. For what it's worth,

1021
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 1: this has nothing to do with betting, But Tulsa is

1022
00:50:57,719 --> 00:51:00,760
Speaker 1: playing the Owls. Part alanic is the are the Owls?

1023
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 1: Last week they played Temple and next week they played Rice.

1024
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:09,120
Speaker 1: They played the Owls three straight weeks? Who are you

1025
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,959
Speaker 1: fucking owl? So if you're a Tulsa fan, you're getting

1026
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 1: used to the al gifts are get as a stay

1027
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:15,920
Speaker 1: in the next week, Yeah, I don't know, maybe they

1028
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:18,279
Speaker 1: played four straight hous I tried to find if it's

1029
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,320
Speaker 1: the first time in college football history of the team's

1030
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 1: played three straight owls, and I was like, what am

1031
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 1: I doing? Why am I doing this? So I stopped YEA.

1032
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:27,799
Speaker 1: Sometimes sometimes at four in the morning, I get lost

1033
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:31,320
Speaker 1: in the sauce and I had to lose myself. So anyway,

1034
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 1: I think I FAU also had some looming positive, laid

1035
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 1: down finishing drives regression, and given their schedule, that kind

1036
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 1: of makes sense. And Tulsa is like top thirty nationally

1037
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 1: and third and fourth down conversion rate, while Fau's bottom twenty,

1038
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 1: So I think there's some regression there. Tulsa also has

1039
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 1: miserable special teams, which could make the difference here on

1040
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: the road. I think this is a spot to buy IFA.

1041
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I like it at three right now, I

1042
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 2: make this four. I would take three there at home.

1043
00:51:57,840 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 2: There's a big difference in some key areas, number one

1044
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:02,880
Speaker 2: being tackling Florida. Atlantica's top ten in the nation Tulsa's

1045
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: bottom ten. Tulsa runs the ball a lot. There's sixty

1046
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 2: seven percent of Brayln Braxon comes back, which I remember

1047
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:11,279
Speaker 2: I tweeted out like an hour before a game. He

1048
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:13,359
Speaker 2: was out there warming up. I thought he was going

1049
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 2: to play, yeah, and everything in his lower body taped up,

1050
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 2: and then he didn't end up playing at all. So

1051
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 2: I think his.

1052
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 1: Ankles all heavily taped and.

1053
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and I think you know, Tulsa. I love

1054
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:29,960
Speaker 2: the broken tackle stat that I've got here, and they're

1055
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty fifth because that includes FCS teams

1056
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 2: and creating broken tackles and the fact that Florida Atlantic

1057
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:37,719
Speaker 2: has seventh and tackling means they're going to be able

1058
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 2: to tackle in space. Here, Tulsa's near dead last and

1059
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:44,839
Speaker 2: havoc allowed. I'll take the FAU defense to do enough

1060
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 2: to get this done.

1061
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:48,839
Speaker 1: I'm with you. Yeah, off of bye after a tough

1062
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:53,280
Speaker 1: non com get the new quarterback assimilated with the first stringers,

1063
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 1: and I think it's a good byspot last one. I

1064
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 1: know you disagree with this one. I'm I'm waiting on

1065
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 1: the ten. I'm betting col I always bet cal is

1066
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 1: a double digit dog. Will Cox is twenty one and

1067
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 1: seven against spread as an underdog of more than four points,

1068
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:08,919
Speaker 1: including ten and one at home, and they just ugly

1069
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 1: up the game. I think you might see Ben Finley here,

1070
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 1: which is how you have to attack this Oregon State

1071
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 1: defense in the secondary. But the biggest thing is that, look,

1072
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 1: it's a tough spot for this Oregon State team. You

1073
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 1: destroy Utah and now you're going down to Cal. Like

1074
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:24,840
Speaker 1: I can see this being potentially a little sleepy. But

1075
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:28,080
Speaker 1: here's the thing Cal, and look, they should have beat

1076
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 1: They shut down Auburn. They should have beat Auburn. Auburn

1077
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 1: could converted a third and seventeen late. They also played

1078
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 1: Washington statistically pretty close, but that was a bad matchup

1079
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:39,400
Speaker 1: for them. This Cal defense has been very good against

1080
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 1: the run. That's what you have to do to stop

1081
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:45,680
Speaker 1: Oregon State, and they've been great upfront. They've been a

1082
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 1: little shaky on the back end. But from what I've seen,

1083
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 1: I just don't trust this Oregon State passing attack. You know,

1084
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 1: and Cal is top ten nationally in EPA for rushall out.

1085
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:58,520
Speaker 1: That's just huge in this matchup. Bill ugly up this

1086
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:02,799
Speaker 1: game and that you know, the Cal's feistier than last

1087
00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:05,360
Speaker 1: year's team, and last year they lost by one possession.

1088
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 1: It's Notre Dame, Washington, USC, UCLI. It's just what they do.

1089
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:12,239
Speaker 1: I think this is another close game. I know you

1090
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 1: played Oregon State, but I'm playing Cal Bears, Ted Eastern

1091
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:18,799
Speaker 1: Pac twelve never It's what I'll be sweating late.

1092
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to me, this comes down to, of course,

1093
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 2: the rushing attack for Oregon State. Cal is better against

1094
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:29,879
Speaker 2: the rush than they were against the pass, but Cal

1095
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 2: bottom ten in the nation and defensive finishing drives. That's

1096
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 2: going as a Jonathan Smith offense that annually kills it

1097
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:42,919
Speaker 2: in scoring opportunities, and so that is definitely an area

1098
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 2: that I focus on. And you know Cal has run

1099
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 2: the ball fifty five percent. I know Ben Finley is

1100
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 2: going to be able to attack that secondary. Oregon State

1101
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 2: doesn't generate much of a pass rush. They're not that

1102
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 2: great in coverage, but when it comes to a ground game,

1103
00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 2: they're there. So they should put call in passing downs.

1104
00:54:57,080 --> 00:54:59,360
Speaker 2: It just matters what Finley wants to do with that

1105
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 2: time callous one hundred and thirtieth and special teams sp plus.

1106
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,919
Speaker 2: So that's a little scary. So I am on Oregon State.

1107
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 2: We'll go head to head. I'm not comfortable taking a

1108
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 2: team on the road that likes to run all the

1109
00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:15,360
Speaker 2: time and doesn't really explode. But you know, I projected

1110
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 2: at eleven. I think if it gets up to eleven,

1111
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 2: I could buy out and maybe play on the ten.

1112
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 2: But we'll see go bears.

1113
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:23,919
Speaker 1: All right. Let's know San Diego State over Santago State

1114
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:25,759
Speaker 1: overs have been hot. No, but they have a buy

1115
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:29,480
Speaker 1: this week. So nothing there. It's enounce time to go

1116
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 1: three now.

1117
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:34,560
Speaker 2: Oh, let's make it a quick three and out.

1118
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 1: All right, let's start off first down. Friday night lights.

1119
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:43,720
Speaker 3: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts, Let's go play football.

1120
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:48,400
Speaker 1: I got nothing on either of these games. I'm tempted

1121
00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 1: to fade Illinois again, who hasn't covered all year. Their

1122
00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 1: defense is atrocious. I'm not buying anything Brett Bielama is selling.

1123
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:05,760
Speaker 2: They take on Nebraska, Nebraska, Honestly, it's not for everyone.

1124
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 1: And then you also have Kansas State double digit favor

1125
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State. I can't get to this number, but

1126
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:15,040
Speaker 1: I'm not back from this Oklahoma State team, so I

1127
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 1: have nothing to need of this game other than a

1128
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 1: lean of wanting to fade Bilam again. So maybe I'll

1129
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:20,040
Speaker 1: get there on Friday night. Do you have anything on

1130
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 1: either Friday night game?

1131
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:23,719
Speaker 2: I don't see how you can support Illinois here. I mean,

1132
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 2: Bilama just lost to his defensive coordinator who's trying to

1133
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:30,279
Speaker 2: revamp an entire program. Maybe that's that's bad. I think

1134
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 2: what you're looking for for signal from Nebraska is that

1135
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:35,839
Speaker 2: Jeff Simms is healthy, looks like Heinrich Harberg. He's been

1136
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:38,680
Speaker 2: pretty forgettable under center. Five fumbles the last three games.

1137
00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:40,840
Speaker 2: It's like he's really taking in Jeff sims spot, except

1138
00:56:40,840 --> 00:56:43,080
Speaker 2: he doesn't have the running attached with it. So we'll

1139
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:44,759
Speaker 2: see if Jeff Sims is going to play. If he is,

1140
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:47,799
Speaker 2: you can go ahead and grab Nebraska. I guess if

1141
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:49,080
Speaker 2: you want. I'm not sure I'm going to be running

1142
00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 2: to it. Illinois one hundred and twenty eighth. Then offensive

1143
00:56:51,239 --> 00:56:54,319
Speaker 2: quality drives. They can't get down the field for their life.

1144
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if it's eleven lawn chairs lined up

1145
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:58,359
Speaker 2: in front of them. They can't get down the field.

1146
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:01,279
Speaker 2: I don't know why I'm not blindly playing Kansas State

1147
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:06,279
Speaker 2: against Oklahoma State. The numbers for Oklahoma State are beyond atrocious.

1148
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,799
Speaker 2: Cowboys hunder and twenty third and defensive passing success rate

1149
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:13,120
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty first in tackling against this Kansas

1150
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 2: State offense that's going to, you know, have an offensive

1151
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:18,920
Speaker 2: line smack you upside the head as the running back

1152
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 2: goes by. I don't alan Bowman's going to get the

1153
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 2: start for Oklahoma State's offense. Had almost twice as many

1154
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:26,640
Speaker 2: turnover worthy plays, and he has big time throws. The

1155
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 2: Polks are just atrocious of passing the ball. They're even

1156
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 2: worse in passing downs, and they have a low probability

1157
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 2: of running the ball. And Kansas State is second in

1158
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:37,720
Speaker 2: the nation and defensive stuff rate. I think Oklahoma State

1159
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:40,920
Speaker 2: State's a mess. I think their team total under is

1160
00:57:41,000 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 2: the play. Considering Kansas State defensively matches up really well

1161
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:48,280
Speaker 2: and can shut them down. Under fifty five is my desire.

1162
00:57:48,440 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any reason this number gets steamed up.

1163
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 2: So I think Oklahoma State team total under is where

1164
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:56,120
Speaker 2: I'll probably slide a bed end before the game.

1165
00:57:57,840 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 1: All right, let's go on to second down and talk

1166
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:01,040
Speaker 1: our favorite overdog.

1167
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 2: It's called the overdog parlay.

1168
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 1: Our favorite favorite. I'll kick things off. I'm gonna say

1169
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna go with Louisiana under a field

1170
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:12,720
Speaker 1: goal against Texas State. I know Texas State got us

1171
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:15,120
Speaker 1: last week. They got built a big lead, almost gave

1172
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 1: it up, then got a front a front door touchdown.

1173
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 1: Too many of those this year, But I think the

1174
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 1: market's still too high on Texas State. They really haven't

1175
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:26,000
Speaker 1: played anyone. They're still living off of that that win

1176
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 1: to start the yearverbail, which doesn't look as good, and

1177
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:30,760
Speaker 1: they have the element of surprise there. Since then, they

1178
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:34,120
Speaker 1: played absolute trash like Jackson State Nevada. They've also been

1179
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 1: just too inconsistent, and I think they finally get picked

1180
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:40,440
Speaker 1: off here against the Louisiana team coming off the loss.

1181
00:58:40,480 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 1: So I think Louisiana under a field goal is cheap here.

1182
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:45,320
Speaker 1: So give me the raging cages.

1183
00:58:46,600 --> 00:58:48,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Boise State. There's nine a halfs,

1184
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 2: there's tens out there. I like it a little bit

1185
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 2: higher than that. I think I make it thirteen and

1186
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:54,560
Speaker 2: a half, So I think there's still some room here

1187
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:57,640
Speaker 2: for Boise to run in the market. Don't listen to

1188
00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 2: the noise about Maddox Madson splitting time with Taylor Green.

1189
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:03,680
Speaker 2: I think that's a smoke screen for the fact that

1190
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 2: Ashton Genty is absolutely running over everybody for TDS. His

1191
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 2: last two games. Sure, you lost to Memphis, it was

1192
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 2: on the road. They're a decent team that can throw.

1193
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 2: This is a completely different San Jose State defense, and

1194
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 2: they have no ability to stop the rush whatsoever. When

1195
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:21,880
Speaker 2: you look at San Jose State going up against heavy

1196
00:59:21,960 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 2: rush offenses against air Force and Oregon State, they each

1197
00:59:25,960 --> 00:59:28,840
Speaker 2: post a blowout wins. Against San Jose State, both the

1198
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:32,120
Speaker 2: Falcons and the Beavers posted season high rushing success rate

1199
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 2: while experiencing minimal line of scrimmage stuff rates against the

1200
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 2: Spartans defense. San Jose State can't stuff any holes at

1201
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:41,560
Speaker 2: the offensive line. That is a big problem against Genty.

1202
00:59:42,040 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 2: So I'm not really worried about Taylor Green. You know,

1203
00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:46,520
Speaker 2: maybe they tell Taylor Green you can finally run outside

1204
00:59:46,560 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 2: the pocket. Maybe bush hand in the offensive coordinator A

1205
00:59:49,240 --> 00:59:51,280
Speaker 2: Boise's finally gonna allow his quarterback to do what he

1206
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 2: did last year. But I'm not holding my breath. I

1207
00:59:53,720 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 2: think Ashton Genty is really the difference here. I think

1208
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:58,120
Speaker 2: they're gonna roll San Jose State up at home.

1209
00:59:58,480 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, Santase State really to you know o the best

1210
01:00:01,880 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 1: players in program history along that defensive line. Last year

1211
01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 1: they lost. That's what we talked about why we didn't

1212
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:10,040
Speaker 1: like them against against Air Force. They have major run

1213
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:13,200
Speaker 1: defense issues and Gente is amazing. You can't If you

1214
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:16,080
Speaker 1: can't defend the run against Boise, you're in trouble. So

1215
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 1: like that one as well. All right, let's move on

1216
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:22,640
Speaker 1: to our final task on third down, and that is

1217
01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 1: our favorite money line underdogs for underdog money on parlay,

1218
01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:35,520
Speaker 1: turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1219
01:00:35,760 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 1: money line parlay. He's been hot lately. I'll kick things off.

1220
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:43,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to Arizona State against Colorado. This one

1221
01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 1: is this is a spot Colorado. I don't know how

1222
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:46,600
Speaker 1: much that they have left in the tank. This is

1223
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:48,920
Speaker 1: a team that doesn't have much depth. They've been everything

1224
01:00:48,960 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 1: has been a huge event every single week. Every week

1225
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:54,640
Speaker 1: it's we have this huge game. We have jay Z coming.

1226
01:00:54,760 --> 01:00:57,840
Speaker 1: Let's go. We're talking shit. You know now you're going

1227
01:00:57,880 --> 01:01:01,480
Speaker 1: down to Tempe. You know on PAC twelve network. In

1228
01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 1: the game, no one's gonna watch except me because of

1229
01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:06,720
Speaker 1: Arizona State and I luckily I have back to twelve nowhere.

1230
01:01:07,320 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 1: Actually know I'll be out for this game. I'll have

1231
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:11,520
Speaker 1: to get this on my phone. But Arizona State this spot.

1232
01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:13,200
Speaker 1: I just don't know what Colorade has left to the tank,

1233
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 1: so this is a potential like come out completely flat.

1234
01:01:15,840 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 1: I also don't love al Colorado. I don't like this

1235
01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:19,960
Speaker 1: Colorado team at all as a favor, Like they don't

1236
01:01:19,960 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 1: play defense and you can't run the ball, so like

1237
01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:25,160
Speaker 1: you're that you do not profile as a good favorite.

1238
01:01:25,640 --> 01:01:27,600
Speaker 1: And I think this is a good matchup for Arizona State,

1239
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:29,200
Speaker 1: who still has a bit of value. Like I think

1240
01:01:29,240 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 1: a lot of people in the market are just remembering

1241
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:33,720
Speaker 1: the disastrous games early in the season, but they've been

1242
01:01:33,760 --> 01:01:36,360
Speaker 1: pretty good since almost beat Cal. We're in the game

1243
01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 1: of USC late. Burgett has been good at quarterback, and

1244
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:41,840
Speaker 1: you know, they've had to deal with a ton of injuries,

1245
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 1: so like they're starting to come together, especially on the

1246
01:01:44,320 --> 01:01:47,439
Speaker 1: offensive line. But what has Arizona State done really well

1247
01:01:47,520 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 1: this year? Defend the past, defend the explosive pass, their

1248
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:55,560
Speaker 1: top twenty nationally and EPA per drop back allowed. What

1249
01:01:56,000 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 1: can Colorado do? They can't run the ball. They can't

1250
01:01:59,000 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 1: run the ball at all, two point six yards per carry.

1251
01:02:02,040 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 1: That's how you have to attack this Arizona State defense.

1252
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 1: They can't stop the run, so Arizona State actually matches

1253
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:09,520
Speaker 1: up well here defensively, and anyone can score on the

1254
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:12,480
Speaker 1: Colorado defense. So I think there's some value here with

1255
01:02:12,600 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 1: Arizona State, who, by the way, speaking of the spot,

1256
01:02:15,120 --> 01:02:17,240
Speaker 1: not only is this a flat spot for Colorado, Like

1257
01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 1: you know, this is the team you want to beat.

1258
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 1: Arizona State can't go to the postseason. We talked about

1259
01:02:22,040 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 1: this like against usc like these are their super Bowls,

1260
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:26,439
Speaker 1: these type of games. This is not the super Bowl

1261
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:29,600
Speaker 1: for Colorado. This is like a preseason game based on

1262
01:02:29,720 --> 01:02:31,400
Speaker 1: what they've been doing. So like I was gonna state,

1263
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 1: it's gonna shot this a super Bowl Colorado. Colorado who

1264
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:37,480
Speaker 1: came out, should you know? They came out. A couple

1265
01:02:37,520 --> 01:02:39,000
Speaker 1: guys come out and said We're going to run the table,

1266
01:02:39,240 --> 01:02:42,560
Speaker 1: like just to complete disrespect of Arizona State. So I

1267
01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:44,480
Speaker 1: love the spot here and I like the matchup for

1268
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:45,439
Speaker 1: Arizona State.

1269
01:02:46,120 --> 01:02:49,320
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I help Colorado guests their doors blown off,

1270
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:52,600
Speaker 2: and they continue to do it until Travis Hunter comes back,

1271
01:02:52,640 --> 01:02:55,840
Speaker 2: and when he's healthy, we'll start playing Colorado again against

1272
01:02:55,840 --> 01:02:58,120
Speaker 2: Stanford's and some of the other bottom people.

1273
01:02:58,200 --> 01:02:59,960
Speaker 1: That's another thing. Travis Hunters out and out a couple

1274
01:03:00,000 --> 01:03:00,439
Speaker 1: more weeks.

1275
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:03,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to go back. We talked about it.

1276
01:03:03,240 --> 01:03:05,400
Speaker 2: I'm going to go back to the sec battle of

1277
01:03:05,480 --> 01:03:08,320
Speaker 2: the Tigers. I trust Missouri's defense more than I trust

1278
01:03:08,480 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 2: LSU's defense.

1279
01:03:09,400 --> 01:03:11,520
Speaker 1: Fading your national champions again, I'm.

1280
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:15,120
Speaker 2: Fading my national champion. I think they are officially out

1281
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:17,920
Speaker 2: from winning the national title. So it's free reign to

1282
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:20,280
Speaker 2: try to get my money back on these guys. You know,

1283
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:23,600
Speaker 2: we talked about the offense earlier from Missouri. Brady Cook

1284
01:03:23,680 --> 01:03:25,920
Speaker 2: has been fantastic. He has not thrown an interception, He's

1285
01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:28,320
Speaker 2: only had two turnover worthy plays. They've come against Middle

1286
01:03:28,360 --> 01:03:31,840
Speaker 2: Tennessee State, and he's corrected that. Luther Burden has moved

1287
01:03:31,840 --> 01:03:34,600
Speaker 2: from whiteout down to slot. Has made him the best

1288
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:37,800
Speaker 2: wide receiver in college football at this point in the season,

1289
01:03:38,320 --> 01:03:39,960
Speaker 2: and so you have to wonder who's going to guard

1290
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:42,960
Speaker 2: him from the LSU side. Bottom line, Missouri is going

1291
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:45,640
Speaker 2: to be able to move the ball at will, score

1292
01:03:45,840 --> 01:03:48,320
Speaker 2: at will, and do it through the air. LSU's defense

1293
01:03:48,320 --> 01:03:50,480
Speaker 2: is one hundred and twenty fifth in quality drives. That

1294
01:03:50,560 --> 01:03:53,360
Speaker 2: means everybody's getting down the field with no hurdles. So

1295
01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:56,720
Speaker 2: I expect Missouri to get a touchdown almost every single

1296
01:03:56,760 --> 01:03:59,360
Speaker 2: time they go down the field. No Harrison MeVis needed

1297
01:03:59,440 --> 01:04:02,040
Speaker 2: no field goal. And I trust the defense. Missouri can

1298
01:04:02,080 --> 01:04:04,720
Speaker 2: at least throw a roadblock up at the Jaden Daniels

1299
01:04:04,760 --> 01:04:06,960
Speaker 2: and the zone read in the run passing. I'm a

1300
01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:08,880
Speaker 2: little bit worried about, but in a shootout, I trust

1301
01:04:08,880 --> 01:04:12,440
Speaker 2: Missouri's defense. More give me the home Tigers in Columbia.

1302
01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I took. I faded LSU last week in the

1303
01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:19,600
Speaker 1: money line underdog parlay because I said, why not take

1304
01:04:19,720 --> 01:04:21,800
Speaker 1: the dog money line in a game where the last

1305
01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:24,000
Speaker 1: team with the ball is probably gonna win? So I

1306
01:04:24,360 --> 01:04:28,600
Speaker 1: agree the same sentiment here. So there is your money

1307
01:04:28,640 --> 01:04:33,040
Speaker 1: on underdog parlay, Arizona State and Missouri. All right, that'll

1308
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 1: do it for us. Thanks as always for Colin, to

1309
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:38,080
Speaker 1: Colin for joining me, and of course thanks to all

1310
01:04:38,120 --> 01:04:40,560
Speaker 1: of you for tuning in. Thanks to our Producert Mitchell

1311
01:04:40,600 --> 01:04:43,640
Speaker 1: on the back end our video team as well, thanks

1312
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:45,360
Speaker 1: to our sponsor bet MGM. Make sure you're download the

1313
01:04:45,360 --> 01:04:46,800
Speaker 1: wor Winning Action Network cap you can find all of

1314
01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 1: our bets in addition to an abundance of data and

1315
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:51,040
Speaker 1: content for today's slate and beyond. Make sure you check

1316
01:04:51,080 --> 01:04:53,960
Speaker 1: out while our recap show that will be out Monday,

1317
01:04:53,960 --> 01:04:55,520
Speaker 1: so don't forget about the voicemail nine to five to

1318
01:04:55,560 --> 01:04:58,080
Speaker 1: nine Bad Beat. We'll also have our live show ten

1319
01:04:58,160 --> 01:05:01,919
Speaker 1: thirty am Eastern. Colin fresh off a sweep he changed

1320
01:05:01,960 --> 01:05:04,439
Speaker 1: his underwear hopefully wears the same underwear as last week.

1321
01:05:05,000 --> 01:05:07,400
Speaker 1: Ten thirty am Eastern Live. We'll tweet out the link

1322
01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:09,640
Speaker 1: there and then group of five guys. If you haven't

1323
01:05:09,680 --> 01:05:11,840
Speaker 1: checked out that episode that's already out, we have new

1324
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:14,480
Speaker 1: BCS which is out early in the week. That's also

1325
01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:18,280
Speaker 1: live on YouTube ten ten thirty am Eastern on Tuesday.

1326
01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:20,920
Speaker 1: You're watching on YouTube, make sure you subscribe like but

1327
01:05:21,000 --> 01:05:22,560
Speaker 1: thanks for tuning in. Good luck on all of your

1328
01:05:22,600 --> 01:05:27,440
Speaker 1: wagers this weekend, and we will see you on Saturday morning. Cheers,

1329
01:05:27,960 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 1: he's out.

1330
01:05:39,360 --> 01:05:42,760
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1331
01:05:43,200 --> 01:05:46,000
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1332
01:05:46,320 --> 01:05:48,920
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1333
01:05:49,040 --> 01:05:49,800
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