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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're all for running a gay so smooth,

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Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious ex procution, guys, all

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent

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Speaker 1: of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind, buddy, and that's why.

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Speaker 1: You see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The wall.

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Speaker 3: It's left to of the wide eyed.

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Speaker 1: Drill bibus, How old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to Wondergul, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 3: the Action Network. My name is Michael Leebuff and joining

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Speaker 3: me as always are my friend and Action colleagues BJ

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Speaker 3: Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo and fellas. It's been a long

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Speaker 3: time since we've had a Premier League weekend with this

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Speaker 3: much hype, but boy, things should be fun this weekend.

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Speaker 3: We have all four top four teams playing one another

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Speaker 3: and we're going to start at Stanford Bridge as Chelsea

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Speaker 3: or plus one eighty posting Liverpool plus one forty on

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Speaker 3: the money line, the Trust plus two to fifty this

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Speaker 3: is the Sunday eleven thirty am kickoff BJ. I'm want

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Speaker 3: to start with you Chelsea and Liverpool. Both teams are

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Speaker 3: going through a little bit of a whibble. They're losing

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Speaker 3: touch of Manchester City. Do you think that that is

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Speaker 3: going to change not only the way the game is played,

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Speaker 3: that this is kind of a must win for both teams,

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Speaker 3: but also the way that handicappers should look at playing

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Speaker 3: this one essentially.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, obviously, I think from a live perspective,

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Speaker 1: it definitely changes it from a pre match standpoint. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is pretty straightforward obviously, with the match essentially being

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Speaker 1: a pick them, with Liverpool slightly favored, I have the

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Speaker 1: match also projected around to pick them, so this has

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Speaker 1: kind of a pass for me. I'm going to wait

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Speaker 1: for a couple different live situations, but you know, this

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Speaker 1: is the repeat of the match early here in the

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Speaker 1: season where Chelsea went up one nothing when Liverpool was

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Speaker 1: dominating in the first half, and then Reech James got

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Speaker 1: set off for basically blocking a goal. Salas scored the penalty.

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Speaker 1: Chelsea ended up drawing Liverpool with Liverpool won one, but

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Speaker 1: Liverpool completely dominated the second half, with Chelsea down a man.

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Speaker 1: Chelsea has not looked great as of late today. They

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Speaker 1: got completely out played by Brighton in that whole the

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Speaker 1: last sixty minutes. Brighton was able to control possession, they're

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Speaker 1: able to create chances. They outshot Chelsea eighteen to eleven.

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Speaker 1: So this is not great when you're going up against

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Speaker 1: the Liverpool team that really should have beat less, created

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Speaker 1: a boatload of chances and just couldn't put anything the

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Speaker 1: back of the net. This is the last match for

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Speaker 1: Liverpool before Sala and Mane go off to the Africa

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Speaker 1: Cup of Nations, so this is really really big for

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Speaker 1: Liverpool and they need They need three points if they

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Speaker 1: want to hang with Manchester City and the Tider Race. Otherwise,

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Speaker 1: if it's a draw or if Chelsea wins, I think

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Speaker 1: the Tide Race is effectively over and Manchester City is

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Speaker 1: gonna be crowned second two times Premi League champions in

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Speaker 1: the last two years. There's two live spots where I

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Speaker 1: think betters can pretend get in. Liverpool is at their

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Speaker 1: best this season. In the thirtieth minute through the sixtieth minute,

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Speaker 1: they have a little over a plus thirteen expected gold

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Speaker 1: differential in that time frame. Al Chelsea they have actually

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Speaker 1: a negative goal differential in the first fifteen minutes of

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Speaker 1: the second half, so you could potentially wait to get

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Speaker 1: a better number on Liverpool as we get about a

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Speaker 1: half hour into this match. Now, it's obviously a dangerous

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Speaker 1: game to play because Liverpool can score at any time

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Speaker 1: of the match. On top of that, if Chelsea scores first,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be an auto Liverpool will play for

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Speaker 1: me coming through in the Action Network app, because Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: they haven't spent much time you know, down this season,

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Speaker 1: but when they're down, they've created five expected goals in

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Speaker 1: about one hundred minutes. So that's a pretty good average,

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Speaker 1: you know, and a pretty good indication that they should

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Speaker 1: be able to get right back in this match and

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Speaker 1: today also with Brighton be able to be able to

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Speaker 1: control possession, I mean, what do you think Liverpool is

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Speaker 1: going to do. They're actually to be able to finish

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Speaker 1: off those chances that Brighton wasn't able to do. So

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Speaker 1: for me, it's it's kind of a weight and see

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Speaker 1: type of moment. I'm probably going to try and wait

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Speaker 1: and get a better on Liverpool as we get you know,

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Speaker 1: a little deeper into this match. But a lot of

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Speaker 1: signs are pointing towards a Liverpool victory and getting back

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Speaker 1: in this title race against Manchester City.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, City's at fifty points twenty games played, Chelsea in

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Speaker 3: second at forty two or twenty games played Liverpool forty

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Speaker 3: one points a game in hand on both of them.

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Speaker 3: The Blues three two to one win draw loss in

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Speaker 3: their last six eleven goals for, eight goals against, eleven

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Speaker 3: point eighty five expectacles for six point one six expectacles against.

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Speaker 3: But as Anthony touched on the last pod, they've been

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Speaker 3: a little lucky in terms of penalties. Liverpool, on the

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Speaker 3: other hand, all one to one when draw, loss in

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Speaker 3: their last three and there are coming off as be

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Speaker 3: just said that unlucky lost to Lester mosts a La

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Speaker 3: missing a penalty. I don't think I've ever seen that before,

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Speaker 3: and Lester like you gotta give them a little bit

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Speaker 3: of credit for the way that they just dug in

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Speaker 3: and kind of just whether the Liverpool storm. I do

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Speaker 3: think that this game, I like Chelsea because I think

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Speaker 3: this number is going to tick up. I think people

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Speaker 3: will back Liverpool, especially with Sala and Mane is still

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Speaker 3: in the lineup, knowing it's a must win. Plus it

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Speaker 3: just seems like Chelsea is going through something. Thomas Toople

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Speaker 3: was really upset after the game. I think he did

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Speaker 3: have a gripe about Brighton getting away with a potential

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Speaker 3: foul in the box. And I think that he's been

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Speaker 3: banging the drama about the team not having being forced

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Speaker 3: to play games while other teams are getting off. But

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Speaker 3: that's because Chelsea has such a deep squad, so they

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Speaker 3: have players who can play even though there's six or

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Speaker 3: seven guys out with COVID. I think that this is

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Speaker 3: kind of a galvanizing moment. They're at home, they're underdogs

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Speaker 3: at home, and I do think this numbers get to

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Speaker 3: tick up.

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Speaker 2: I'm hoping to get close.

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Speaker 3: To two to one on Chelsea, but that's where I'm

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Speaker 3: going to be going and hoping that this is a

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Speaker 3: good spot for them to get right and really supercharge

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Speaker 3: their season because a win against Liverpool and City, as

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Speaker 3: we will talk about next, have a really tricky one

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Speaker 3: coming up, and maybe Chelsea can get back into it

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Speaker 3: and maybe make a tounle race out of this. Otherwise, yes,

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Speaker 3: it's not too hard to imagine City kind of just

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Speaker 3: running away with this thing and being done by Valentine's Day, Anthony,

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Speaker 3: what are you seeing in this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I like Liverpool. That shouldn't come as

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Speaker 2: a surprise to the listeners. But you know, Chelsea has

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Speaker 2: really really been struggling, and I think that the game

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Speaker 2: against Brighton was kind of a classic example of their issues.

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Speaker 2: When you look at the game. First, they nearly score

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Speaker 2: off a set piece where Robert Sanchez kind of made

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Speaker 2: a mistake coming off his line, didn't quite claim it.

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Speaker 2: The ball bounces around the box pretty fluky, it goes

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Speaker 2: off the post, Brighton gets away with it. Then they

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Speaker 2: score off of a corner. Great header by Lucaku. I

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Speaker 2: thought he got away with a foul. He kind of

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Speaker 2: swats small Pay and then swats him again as he

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Speaker 2: runs by him and make sure that he's the only

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Speaker 2: one that getting on that end of the header. And

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Speaker 2: that's what Lukaka can bring in Lucaku, his ability in

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Speaker 2: the air, his ability to run at defenders, his ability

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Speaker 2: on the break. I think that is a plus against

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Speaker 2: Liverpool here where they're going to set up in a

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Speaker 2: more defensive look, low block, counter style as they've done

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Speaker 2: in the past against teams like City in Liverpool, but

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Speaker 2: there's a bigger issue for Chelsea and it's twofold really.

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Speaker 2: One reach James went off injured in this match. He's

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Speaker 2: now out. Andy Robertson will be back for Liverpool, so

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Speaker 2: that's now a pretty significant edge on the left wing.

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Speaker 2: I think we may see Kalum Hudson Adoy, but I

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Speaker 2: think Liverpool getting Robertson back makes a huge difference for them.

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Speaker 2: We also might see Thiago off the bench. He is

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Speaker 2: not fully fit right now, but he's working his way

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Speaker 2: back in That could go into Bjay's live bet scenario.

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Speaker 2: His ability to kind of pick out a pass and

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Speaker 2: retain the ball in the midfield, similar to what Brighton

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Speaker 2: was able to do to Chelsea once they went down

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Speaker 2: that goal, and really for about forty five minutes until

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Speaker 2: Kante came on, Chelsea was totally lost. They didn't take

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Speaker 2: a shot from the goal by Lukaku until about the

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Speaker 2: seventieth minute today, and that's pretty concerning when you look

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Speaker 2: at how little control they have of the game. When

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Speaker 2: Kante isn't on the pitch and he has not been

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent, I'm guessing he will start, but again,

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Speaker 2: if he's not fit, firing and fully good to go,

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Speaker 2: Liverpool will take advantage of the fact that Lukaku doesn't

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Speaker 2: really press, and so there's kind of a hole in

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Speaker 2: the Chelsea midfield here where you can play through them.

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Speaker 2: Brighton did it. There was a moment in today's game

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Speaker 2: when mount turned around. He was trying to press one

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Speaker 2: of the Brighton fullbacks. He turned around and was wondering

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Speaker 2: why nobody was pressing behind him. Georgino had dropped deep,

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Speaker 2: Covidic had dropped deep. Lukaku wasn't really doing any work

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Speaker 2: and so there was just a huge hole in the

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Speaker 2: middle of this Chelsea team. And Brighton took the ball,

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Speaker 2: ran right up towards the edge of the penalty area

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Speaker 2: and then watch the chance. But it kind of gets

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Speaker 2: at the problems with this Chelsea team. You go back

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Speaker 2: to the first leg when these two teams played back

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Speaker 2: at the beginning of the year. Liverpool we're dominating the game.

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Speaker 2: Like Bja mentioned, the goal came very against the run

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Speaker 2: and play. Chelsea is clearly worse than five thirty eight numbers.

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Speaker 2: They're continuing to be downgraded. In my numbers. I've got

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Speaker 2: this game Liverpool minus one twenty five on the drawn.

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Speaker 2: No bet, so my numbers are pretty spot on. Liverpool

190
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Speaker 2: opened minus one ten here, they're now up to minus

191
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Speaker 2: one twenty five. That's about as far as I would

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Speaker 2: play it. Once you get north of one thirty. It's

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Speaker 2: pretty pretty steep for road favorite here against what is

194
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Speaker 2: still a good Chelsea team, just not a great one.

195
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Speaker 2: And so I like Liverpool on the drawn no bet

196
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Speaker 2: line if you can find minus one twenty five or better.

197
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Speaker 2: If not, like BJ said, maybe try to get in

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Speaker 2: live here. But ultimately I do think Liverpool controls this game.

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Speaker 2: They create way more chances and make it really difficult

200
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Speaker 2: for Chelsea, even though the Blues are at home.

201
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Speaker 3: I think if these numbers were flipped, I mean, it's

202
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Speaker 3: its sensitive, we'll to say, but then I would be

203
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Speaker 3: much more interested in Liverpool. But I think your home

204
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Speaker 3: field advantage just the craziness of the past couple of weeks.

205
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Speaker 3: I'm expecting a little bit of bolatility here and I

206
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Speaker 3: really don't mind Chelsea. But I do think, as you

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Speaker 3: guys both outlined, the market is probably going to be

208
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Speaker 3: pretty heavy on Liverpool here, so wouldn't be surprised to

209
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Speaker 3: see this number tick up as we get closer to kickoff.

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Speaker 2: You know, the one thing when when Liverpool dropped points

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Speaker 2: and they lost that game on Tuesday, part of me

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Speaker 2: was thinking, oh, we're going to get a really good

213
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Speaker 2: Liverpool number here on the road they were minus one

214
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Speaker 2: oh five. Minus one ten was the was the number

215
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Speaker 2: on the market, and then midway through the Chelsea game

216
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Speaker 2: they were still about minus one ten and then as

217
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Speaker 2: soon as Brighton equalized a ton of Liverpool money came

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Speaker 2: in they moved up to minus one twenty five. So

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Speaker 2: did not get the number we were hoping. But I

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Speaker 2: think a lot of it was just a product of

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Speaker 2: Chelsea looking as bad as they did today against Brighton

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Speaker 2: at home because Liverpool played pretty well. They didn't create

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Speaker 2: a lot of clear chances. The penalty in the Mane

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Speaker 2: miss or what everybody's talking about. But for Liverpool only

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Speaker 2: create two or three good chances in a game where

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Speaker 2: they were on the front foot isn't great for them.

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Speaker 2: But I think that was more credit to Lester's defending,

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Speaker 2: which was considerably improved.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is also you know, on top of that,

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Speaker 1: you know, see hasn't been playing very good with the

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Speaker 1: lead this season. You know, if you look at their

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Speaker 1: numbers with a one goal lead, they only have a

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Speaker 1: point eight expected goal turn. They're allowing one point seven

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Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety minutes with just a one goal lead.

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Speaker 1: So that's very concerning, especially playing Liverpool. So and you

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Speaker 1: saw today, you know the obviously they go up one,

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Speaker 1: they don't have to take a shot for what seemed

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Speaker 1: like forever. So if they definitely go have one against

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Speaker 1: Liverpool here, it's got to be an auto bet for

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Speaker 1: Liverpool to get back in this game.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure if I'll double down, but I might.

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Speaker 2: We'll say I don't think it's gonna happen, but might.

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Speaker 3: The other Marquee matchup student versus teacher, title holders, title

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Speaker 3: favorites versus the up and coming The Arsenal Gunners plus

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Speaker 3: five fifty at home hosting PEP Guardiolas Manchester City, who

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Speaker 3: were minus two ten on the money line. The draws

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Speaker 3: plus three seventy the early kickoff on Saturday morning seven

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Speaker 3: thirty am. Eastern Arsenal four and Oho in their last

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Speaker 3: four wins over Southampton, west Ham, Leeds and Norwich City.

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Speaker 3: Not exactly a murder's row, especially when you consider that

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Speaker 3: west Ham has been banged up and in poor form.

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Speaker 3: But still, you god of just beat the teams that

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Speaker 3: are put in front of you plus nine point one

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Speaker 3: five expected goal differential in those matches. But as we've

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Speaker 3: talked about on this podcast a lot, when Arsenal steps

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Speaker 3: up in class, they don't really seem to bring their

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Speaker 3: a game and struggle. I think City minus one and

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Speaker 3: a half they're plus one forty is a really tempting

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Speaker 3: number because I think if City do win this game,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be by multiple goals, because that would

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Speaker 3: suggest that the Arsenal defense is maybe reverted back to

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Speaker 3: what we saw earlier in the season when they got

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Speaker 3: pasted by Chelsea and Liverpool. They also struggled Againstvansas United,

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Speaker 3: they struggle against the City team, so I think that

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Speaker 3: there's a pretty good chance this is a blowout or

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Speaker 3: maybe Arsenal sticks it to them and get a point.

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Speaker 3: So I like to plus one forty on City minus

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Speaker 3: one and a half. In this podcast, we have an

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Speaker 3: Arsenal hater that's Anthony, and an Arsenal tragic someone who

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Speaker 3: loves Arsenal roots for Arsenal that's bj But you got

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Speaker 3: to start with the hater for this episode. So Anthony

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Speaker 3: ken Bjy's gunner pull it off.

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Speaker 2: I don't think I've been an Arsenal hater in terms

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Speaker 2: of my perception of them this year. I certainly hate

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Speaker 2: the club from a personal point of view. Look, they've

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Speaker 2: played three times in the last year and a half

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Speaker 2: since really our set I got a stranglehold on the

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Speaker 2: Arsenal club, not counting you know that pre there was

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Speaker 2: a three no beat down, but I'm not going to

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Speaker 2: count that right after the Premier League restart in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty post COVID. So both games last year were one

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Speaker 2: nil on aggregate. There was two nail to City. Expected

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Speaker 2: goals were about three for City to one for Arsenal,

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Speaker 2: so pretty comfortable City wins, but they were not able

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Speaker 2: to get margin. They played this year early in the

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Speaker 2: season five nail beat down, but Arsenal had multiple center

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Speaker 2: backs out. They were not at a full strength like

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Speaker 2: they are right now, where they're about as fit and

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Speaker 2: healthy as they've been all year and playing as well

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Speaker 2: as they've played all year. But with that being said, well,

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Speaker 2: I mean, what would this line have been about a

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Speaker 2: month ago. I think you can kind of factor in

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Speaker 2: the form to an extent, But Arsenal has also gotten

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Speaker 2: a really good run of opponents being really short handed

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Speaker 2: when you look at the Leeds game. West Ham was

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Speaker 2: very short handed for the game against Arsenal and then

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Speaker 2: even recently, Norwich Robbie Errol called the Norwich team one

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Speaker 2: of the worst he's seen the last twe years in

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Speaker 2: the Premier League, which I thought was pretty funny when

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Speaker 2: he said that so Arsenal been beating up on some

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Speaker 2: flat track bullies. You know, they've been beating up on

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Speaker 2: some pretty bad teams. But what we've said when they

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Speaker 2: can't have the ball, when they play without the ball

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Speaker 2: and they're one of the worst teams at winning the

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Speaker 2: ball back in terms of consistent pressing intensity, they really

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Speaker 2: struggle against these elite sides who have the ball winners

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Speaker 2: and the playmakers to keep the ball away from them.

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Speaker 2: The one concern with City is that Rodri and Kyle

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Speaker 2: Walker are questionable. Now I don't really feel comfortable laying

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Speaker 2: it here with City until we know the status of

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Speaker 2: Walker and Rodri, just because they're so important at stopping

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Speaker 2: the ball. We saw Brentford today had a bunch of

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Speaker 2: almost chances early on in the game, and then we

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Speaker 2: saw Lester score three goals in about two and a

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Speaker 2: half expected goals in that game at the weekend on

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Speaker 2: Boxing Day, whereas they were unable to stop people from

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Speaker 2: running right through them. They're a huge They're the two

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Speaker 2: best I think defenders at the club in terms of

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Speaker 2: stopping transition. So even though Arsenal's not great in transition,

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Speaker 2: it's important. And so I've got City by about one

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Speaker 2: point two goals. In my numbers, I lean towards City.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I want to lay the goal.

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Speaker 2: I may put them in a moneyline parlay. I may

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Speaker 2: do a money line over one and a half. I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure yet where I'm going to play this, but

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Speaker 2: I will be looking to play City in some form

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Speaker 2: because how many times have we seen this classic Arsenal's

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Speaker 2: back their top four contenders and then they go play

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Speaker 2: an elite team and then they kind of get knocked

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Speaker 2: down a peg we saw at Liverpool last month. I

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Speaker 2: think we may see that again here. But I'm curious

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Speaker 2: to see if bj is going to bet the Gunners

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Speaker 2: at home here. No no, no, no, and no he

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Speaker 2: wants to No.

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Speaker 1: I don't, I really don't. I've seen this movie one

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Speaker 1: too many times and I'm really not looking forward to

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Speaker 1: watching it. You know, our Teta has COVID, so he'll

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Speaker 1: be at home like the rest of us, watching this massacre.

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Speaker 1: I never feel confident when Arsenal does this because they've

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Speaker 1: done it so many times where they build you up,

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Speaker 1: they build you up, and they go play a good

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Speaker 1: opponent and they just get absolutely thrashed. You know, I

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Speaker 1: mean anthonython nail on the head. Arsenal just can't play

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Speaker 1: when they're not the team that's dominating possession. So for

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Speaker 1: Manchester City, who's been completely possession dominant since they're two

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Speaker 1: zero lost to Crystal Palace, I don't think they've they've

347
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Speaker 1: held over sixty four percent possession in every single match.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be not impossible because Arsenal still has talent

349
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Speaker 1: going forward they can get you know, City hasn't playing

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Speaker 1: a little bit more of a high back line, so

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Speaker 1: you know, the pace of Sokka Emil Smith Row with

352
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Speaker 1: oda guard on the ball, you know, potentially we could

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Speaker 1: create a couple chances like that. But I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: the last time these two played, obviously it was the

355
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Speaker 1: thrashing five to mil You know, Arsenal did nothing going forward.

356
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Speaker 1: The only point one expected goals. But in that match,

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Speaker 1: like Anthey said they were down both Ben White and Gabrielle.

358
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Speaker 1: They played a back line of Cedric Source, Rob Holding

359
00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,560
Speaker 1: and said klass Niche, and they tried to play at

360
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Speaker 1: three four to three for the first time in forever.

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Speaker 1: So it was just a mixture of massive problems leading

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Speaker 1: up to that match. This time, they're healthy, They have

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Speaker 1: pretty much their full starting lineup ready for this match.

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Speaker 1: Do I feel confident that Arsenal can potentially win. No,

365
00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,440
Speaker 1: not at all, and it could be another thrashing. But

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Speaker 1: they I've been playing really good eleven point four to

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Speaker 1: six expected goals in their last four matches, so their

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Speaker 1: underlying metrics are starting to improve after you know, being

369
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Speaker 1: down for most of this season. It's a pass for me.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I have this line pretty much projected right

371
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Speaker 1: where it's at. I have City at minus one ninety,

372
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Speaker 1: you know, and the over under right a little above three.

373
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Speaker 1: So it's a pass for me. I'm not confident, but

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Speaker 1: man three points would really really give us a huge

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Speaker 1: boost of finishing in fourth place.

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Speaker 2: One interesting thing here, City City came to Brentford, so

377
00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,160
Speaker 2: they came to London for their Wednesday match, which was

378
00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,320
Speaker 2: a sleepy win for them, but again, if you're coming

379
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,520
Speaker 2: to City, they're staying in London for the weekend, so

380
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 2: you know, if you're City and it's not it wasn't

381
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 2: a great spot for them on Wednesday. I don't read

382
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 2: too much into the fact that they had a sleepy

383
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:43,320
Speaker 2: one zero win where they just kept the ball and

384
00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:45,840
Speaker 2: got their goal and then kind of just sat there

385
00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,800
Speaker 2: and won the game. Those players definitely went a bad

386
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Speaker 2: look ahead spot with Arsenal on Sunday, but I don't

387
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,800
Speaker 2: think we've seen in the past that the pep is

388
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,520
Speaker 2: not afraid to run it up on his on his

389
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,040
Speaker 2: cone guy, So we'll see what happens.

390
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do like that City. They are so tangibly

391
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,440
Speaker 3: pacing themselves right, Like it's just so easy to say,

392
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Speaker 3: like all right, they know exactly how to see these

393
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:08,879
Speaker 3: kind of games or those kind of games out like

394
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Speaker 3: they did against Brentford, and I think they'll have the

395
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Speaker 3: fangs out on Saturday morning to take on Arsenal and

396
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Speaker 3: to just beat them back and kind of show them

397
00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,399
Speaker 3: just how wide the gap still is are these two teams.

398
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Speaker 3: So that's where That's where I'm going, all right. Now

399
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 3: we'll move on to another London team, a North London

400
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,639
Speaker 3: team that's Tottenham Hotspur. Anthony' S Tottenham Hotspur. They are

401
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,680
Speaker 3: minus one sixty five on the road traveling to Vicarage

402
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,040
Speaker 3: Road Watford plus four to fifty the draws plus three

403
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:39,280
Speaker 3: twenty ten am kickoff on Saturday. Oh boy, the Hornets.

404
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 3: For twenty minutes they kept west Ham off the score

405
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,720
Speaker 3: sheet and then what happened? The Watford defense showed up

406
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,639
Speaker 3: twenty five goals allowed twenty two point three expectacles allowed

407
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,720
Speaker 3: in their last ten games played. That's two zero to

408
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:55,280
Speaker 3: eight when draw loss under Claudio Ranieri. Meanwhile, Spurs a

409
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 3: one to one draw against Southampton who were down and

410
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:01,879
Speaker 3: men a man for plenty of that match. Spurs are

411
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 3: very unlucky with the var ruled off goal. I think

412
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Speaker 3: this is a decent spot for Tottenham. So I'm going

413
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,680
Speaker 3: to once again lay goal because I think we're talking

414
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:13,520
Speaker 3: about the worst defense in the Premier League right Like,

415
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 3: if Tottenham shows up, if they have if they're on song,

416
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 3: they're going to be able to score a couple times

417
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:21,480
Speaker 3: here and I trust their defense to be able to

418
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 3: keep that margin. So minus one at plus one fifteen,

419
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,439
Speaker 3: I think it's fifty percent that Tottenham win by more

420
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,720
Speaker 3: than one goals plus number here or anything plus number.

421
00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 3: I think Spurs minus one is a good bet. It's square.

422
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 3: The city bet was square. But sometimes you just got

423
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 3: to do it. Anthony, What did you see out of

424
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,480
Speaker 3: your Spurs during the midweek? Did it scare you off

425
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,320
Speaker 3: the Antonio Conte hype train that you've been riding?

426
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,440
Speaker 2: No, not really, you know. I think the game against

427
00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 2: Southampton is an example of why single game expected goals

428
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:50,359
Speaker 2: can be a little bit noisy and you have to

429
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,959
Speaker 2: be careful with how they're used because if you look

430
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:54,880
Speaker 2: at the expected goals the ind of the match, Oh Tottenham,

431
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,960
Speaker 2: you know, two point one plus a penalty, Southampton point five.

432
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,199
Speaker 2: Dominant performance for Antonio contes men. But you go back

433
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:02,600
Speaker 2: and you watch the game. I mean the first half.

434
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:04,360
Speaker 2: I thought Saints were the better side for the first

435
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 2: half hour. They got the goal pretty deserved, and Spurs

436
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 2: started to play better end of the half, and then

437
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 2: they get the penalty and the red card right before

438
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 2: halftime and someone was in on goal. He scores more

439
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,679
Speaker 2: than not from there. But even so, I think one

440
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:20,119
Speaker 2: one would have been a pretty fair result. So it's

441
00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 2: a pretty even game, and the overlooked great, you know,

442
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,920
Speaker 2: over two and a half and then the second half,

443
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 2: I mean the kne off side I'm tired of Var.

444
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,159
Speaker 2: We don't have to debate Var on this podcast, but

445
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 2: where they draw these lines on these players is absolutely ridiculous.

446
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 2: And then they disallowed the goal for Froster dropping it

447
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:41,000
Speaker 2: when he was not really touched. That was really questionable too.

448
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,199
Speaker 2: So in the end it was two very questionably disallowed goals,

449
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:47,479
Speaker 2: one off of very little contact, one off of very

450
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,719
Speaker 2: barely any and Var isn't allowed to overturn the referee

451
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,320
Speaker 2: decision either on the dropped ball and by the goalie,

452
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 2: So either way, I was fine with the Spurs formance.

453
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 2: I didn't think they were dominant or really controlling the

454
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,680
Speaker 2: game eleven on eleven, which is concerning, but Southampton's a

455
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,679
Speaker 2: solid team. They make games for Netik and they did

456
00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 2: a good job of kind of taking Spurs out of

457
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 2: their rhythm. Now as we get into this game, I

458
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,400
Speaker 2: still think Spurs are an overteam in the short term,

459
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 2: not really swayed by the performance against Saints, which really

460
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 2: probably would have gone over if it's stayed eleven on eleven,

461
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,440
Speaker 2: and there were enough chances surely at the end of

462
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 2: the game for Spurs to even score one without a

463
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 2: disallowed goal. So my look here is either both teams

464
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 2: to score, which is minus one ten, or maybe an

465
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 2: over Right now, I'm passing the Watford is allowing one

466
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,639
Speaker 2: point nine to six s expect your goals per ninety

467
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 2: and the last two months since Conte got hired. In

468
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 2: that same timeframe, Spurs are now third best in the

469
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 2: league and expected goal difference eleven on eleven, better than Chelsea,

470
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 2: better than Arsenal. So overall, I'm fine with the way

471
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:48,159
Speaker 2: Tottenham's playing. They are very overpriced here in terms of

472
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 2: the money line. I mean this was looking at minus

473
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 2: one twenty one to thirty and then they had that

474
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 2: game against Southampton. Now we're over minus one fifty one sixty.

475
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 2: We could have five guys out for Watford starters Danny Rose, Smile, Lasar,

476
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 2: Tom Cleverly, Christian cup Sale, Ben Foster, a couple of

477
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 2: those guys been out a while. But we're getting down

478
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:04,680
Speaker 2: the backups here and we saw what west Ham was

479
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 2: able to do to them too, So I am probably

480
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 2: gonna lay away here, but if I play anything, it'll

481
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 2: likely be an over at two and a half goals

482
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 2: minus from thirty one twenty five.

483
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that, like you said, it could be

484
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 3: expensive here in Totenham. But I also think that we

485
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,880
Speaker 3: might not really know where the bottom of the swat

486
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,879
Speaker 3: for defense is, which is why I don't mind, you know,

487
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 3: Bacon bets that will. I'd much rather take the minus

488
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 3: one and hope for plus money because it's like like

489
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 3: I said, with City, I think it's if Totenam wins it,

490
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 3: it'll be by multiple goals against This defense could be

491
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 3: looking at like a five to two here at Vicarage Road.

492
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 3: Let's move on to another team towards the bottom of

493
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 3: the table at Norich City plus six fifty traveling to

494
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 3: the King Power Leicester Cities minus two forty five the

495
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 3: Trust plus four hundred. You mentioned about the City arsenal line,

496
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 3: asking where it would be a couple of weeks ago,

497
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 3: where would this Leicester City line be sixty hours ago

498
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 3: against Norwich? I know like there would be still be

499
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 3: massive favorites, but the performance against Liverpool kind of showed

500
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 3: that this lesser defense they do have the talent and

501
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 3: the tactical nuance to see games out like they did

502
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,439
Speaker 3: against Liverpool. To defend bravely. They're not going to need

503
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 3: to do that against Norwich City, who are no wins,

504
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 3: no draws, five losses, no goals, fourteen against three point

505
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,959
Speaker 3: three expectacles and eleven point three expectacles against in their

506
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 3: last five. Leicester City should be able to show up

507
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 3: and sleepwalk through this one, especially with their offense. But

508
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 3: not much going here for me, Anthony anything on the

509
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 3: Foxes and the Canaries.

510
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one game I will not be tuning

511
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 2: in for live. Norwich so bad. What else can we

512
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 2: say anymore? What we can say is that they are

513
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 2: not only bad to begin with, they have a lot

514
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 2: of guys out now. Tim Coole has COVID, Milo Rashika

515
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 2: looks like he's going to be out their best defender,

516
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 2: i'd argue, and Grand Hanley is out or likely to

517
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: miss this game. Timupuki did not start against Arsenal on Tuesday.

518
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 2: He does not look like he's going to play in

519
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 2: this game either. Todd Cantwell is once again out of favor,

520
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: so he's fallen out with Dean Smith already. There is

521
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 2: not much talent there for Norwich anywhere on the pitch.

522
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: I like Billy Gilmore, Max Aaron's is pretty good. So

523
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,400
Speaker 2: there's a couple of good players. But like Robbie said

524
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 2: on NBC Sports, like this is a awful team. They're

525
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 2: giving some young guys a run out. I like Adam

526
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 2: da He's a decent player, but he hasn't shown enough

527
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: to be like a Premier league striker at any level.

528
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 2: And so I think it's a good live underspot. We

529
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 2: saw Palace put up a quick three and then kind

530
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 2: of just like skirt to the finish and just kind

531
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 2: of roll. I think Lester could get a goal or

532
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 2: two here early and then kind of just sit on this.

533
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: I do think Lester's defense is going to have some improvements.

534
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,640
Speaker 2: Brendan Rodgers switched some things up on the set piece

535
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 2: defending against Liverpool, seemed to make some improvements with their

536
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 2: where they've conceded the most goals from set pieces in

537
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 2: the entire league, so they had to make some adjustments

538
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 2: and I trust Rogers to do that and at least,

539
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 2: you know, shut off that area. Now, they're not going

540
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 2: to be a good defense, but they're going to be

541
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 2: a better defense than they've been. So maybe a look

542
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 2: for a live under but I don't want to lay

543
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 2: a goal and a half and I don't want any

544
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 2: part of Norwich, so I will pass.

545
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 3: Kickoff is a London derby between Crystal Palace plus two

546
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 3: fIF team at home hosting west Ham plus one thirty

547
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 3: the Truss plus two fifty five. Interesting factoid our deputy

548
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 3: editor Steve Patrello, who oversees our day to day editorial.

549
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 3: He was writing a year in review and this morning

550
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 3: asked me what team I thought was the most picked

551
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,640
Speaker 3: team in the Action Network app, the award winning Action

552
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 3: Network app. I got it on my first try. It

553
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 3: was west Ham. In my head. The logic was, who's

554
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 3: a good team that probably wasn't that expensive to bet

555
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 3: on west Ham in both the previous season of the

556
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 3: calendar year plus this one. And people listen to this

557
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 3: podcast and they hear me talk about betting on west Ham,

558
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 3: so they follow me all the time.

559
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 2: I had eight guesses and I did not guess them.

560
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, he said it would have been as.

561
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 2: Obviously guess Brighton, So yeah, I guess Brighton. I had

562
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,479
Speaker 2: a Chelsea in there because they won a lot of games.

563
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 3: But I think it does show you that people who

564
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 3: bet soccer. The Action Network app is only available in

565
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 3: the United States and I believe Canada and so people

566
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 3: in this part of the world, if they're into soccer,

567
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 3: they're deep in the weeds, right, So they're finding these

568
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 3: teams like west Ham or whatever and aren't just doing

569
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 3: what I think people may be stereotype US says. It's like, oh,

570
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,479
Speaker 3: I'm just going to Bet United or Chelsea Arsenal, whoever's good.

571
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 3: So it's just you know, it's interesting. I'm very proud

572
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 3: of everybody out there. I think that's a good team.

573
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 3: You've probably a plus expected value play anyways, Like I said,

574
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 3: Palace plus two fifteen at home. I think it's a

575
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 3: great number on two teams that are basically peers at

576
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 3: this point, Like when you consider what the west Ham

577
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 3: lineup is going to look like and how the form

578
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 3: and Crystal Palace has been in through the first half

579
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 3: of the season. It's been half a season now we

580
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 3: can say that this is a good mid table team.

581
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 3: When you look at expected points, they're basically on level pegging.

582
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 3: And I think even with Pallace having I believe a

583
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 3: game in hand even so, it's just an impressive performance

584
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 3: from the Eagles from Patrick Vieira, and I think this

585
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,679
Speaker 3: game should be much closer to a pick them than

586
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 3: it is. West Ham's coming off an impressive win against

587
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 3: the bad team, so I think maybe that's why they're

588
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 3: a little inflated after putting up a crooked number against Watford.

589
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 3: I like Palace here. I think it's it's pretty hard

590
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 3: to look away better than two to one against the

591
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 3: team that I think is in the same tier of

592
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 3: the Premier League as them at home. So give me

593
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,479
Speaker 3: the Eagles and Patrick Vieira's revolution. Man, this has been

594
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,919
Speaker 3: a lot of fun to watch. Jay, who do you got?

595
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 1: I'm joining you. I like Palace drawno bet at plus

596
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 1: one thirty five. So Palace was a little short handed

597
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 1: against Norwich on Tuesday. You know, no Zaja who suspension,

598
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 1: Connor Gallaghers prizingly was out, no JOCKI and Anderson. Now

599
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 1: the news with Gallagher is that it's not COVID and

600
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: it sounds like he was rested so he could potentially

601
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: be back in the lineup, and he is in the lineup.

602
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 1: I'm with you, Michael. I don't understand why west Ham

603
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 1: is favored given all of their injuries. Defensively, Pallace has

604
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 1: rode their form at home is so much better than

605
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: it is on the road plus seven point nine expected

606
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 1: gold differential at home versus a minus five point nine

607
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 1: expected gold differential on the road. They've also been a

608
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 1: fortress defensively, only allowed seven point five expected goals in

609
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 1: ten home matches. Like you said, you know, west Ham

610
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 1: looked great against Watford, poured in four goals, creating two

611
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: point nine expected But this is a much more organized

612
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 1: Palace defense. Their top five and non penalty expected goals

613
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: allowed and big scoring chances allowed. West Ham still decimated

614
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 1: by injuries defensively. Aaron Creswell, Kurt Zuma and Angelo Obana

615
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: are still out. So with all of those guys out,

616
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 1: west Ham is allowing one point four to four expected

617
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: goals per match. With all three of those guys in

618
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: only one point zero six expected goals per match. So

619
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: it's a pretty big difference between the two. I have

620
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: this match projected a lot closer to pick them, so

621
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: I love Palace, especially if Connor Gallagh's back. Gallagher is

622
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 1: back in the lineup, so give me the Eagles drawn No.

623
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 1: Bett plus one thirty five, Anthony, I have no evidence

624
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: spect Us up, but I feel like your crystal Palace.

625
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,399
Speaker 3: Naysayer on this podcast, but this time you can I

626
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 3: come with us.

627
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I certainly lean towards towards Palace in this front.

628
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 2: I agree the number is weird. West Ham was about

629
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: plus one forty five and then they took some money

630
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 2: down yesterday, so certainly some love for west Ham in

631
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 2: the market. I don't really see it either. Like bj mentioned,

632
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 2: Palace been excellent at home expected goals, sees west Ham

633
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 2: as a marginally better team, but not a significantly better team.

634
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 2: I also said this, I've been fading west Ham for

635
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 2: the last month or so. Most of the last month,

636
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 2: they're just not playing that well. Now there is some encouragement.

637
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 2: Mcal Antonio played a full ninety got four shots, Jared

638
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 2: Bowen to assists three shots, so some encouragement there. But

639
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 2: Pablo four now has got COVID it looks like he's

640
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,400
Speaker 2: going to miss this. He's a pretty important player for them,

641
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:12,640
Speaker 2: especially picking out spaces in that Palace team. And James

642
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 2: MacArthur is probably not going to play for Palace, but

643
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 2: he might be back. If he's back in the midfield,

644
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 2: that makes them a much better passing team in the midfield,

645
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 2: And like PJA mentioned, Gallagher has been excellent John Muller

646
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 2: The Athletic had a great article about the No Touch

647
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 2: All Stars and how players who don't really touch the

648
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 2: ball that much but have a huge impact, and that's Gallagher.

649
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 2: He shows up in all the right places. He gets

650
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 2: a lot of shots, good chances from outside the box.

651
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 2: It's Chelsea Loney and they may be recalling him at

652
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 2: some point next year and I think he may feature

653
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 2: for them, but we'll see. But either way, in terms

654
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 2: of this game on Sunday, I lean towards Palace. I'm

655
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 2: going to wait and see what the lineups look like.

656
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 2: There's been a lot of weird Palace market movement. They

657
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 2: were down to minus one ten on the money line

658
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 2: at one point against Norwich and I missed it and

659
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 2: did not grab it, and then it went right back

660
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 2: after minus one fifty. I think that was an overreaction

661
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 2: to the lineup. We'll see what Palace looks like and

662
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 2: I may end up firing with you guys on the Eagles.

663
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 3: Yeah. Part of the weird weirdness about Palace, especially in

664
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:08,479
Speaker 3: their last game, begains Norrich, so we're trying to get

665
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 3: that game called off. And then when they came out

666
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 3: with their lineup they had the guys for the previous

667
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 3: match and one of them was or nine of the

668
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 3: eleven Wilfrid Zaha was suspended and the other guy was

669
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 3: on the bench. So it's like it was a very

670
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 3: strange thing with the palace thing, and I think that

671
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 3: was why the market went a little haywire there. People

672
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 3: were expecting that they were going to have their B

673
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 3: team playing, but they ended up not. So this pandemic,

674
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,719
Speaker 3: you know, the omicron era of pandemic football has been

675
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 3: quite strange. And with that, we'll move on to a

676
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 3: game that I'm really excited about. Brentford the Bees plus

677
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: one ninety five at home hosting Acid Villa, who were

678
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 3: plus one forty the draws plus two forty. And this

679
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 3: is a nine am kickoff on Sunday. Boy, everybody wants

680
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 3: to watch great attacking soccer, a great attacking football, and

681
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 3: but there's something beautiful about watching a cohesive defensive unit,

682
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 3: especially one that's wearing a very distinctive kit like Brentford

683
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 3: do with the red and white stripes, move together as

684
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 3: one unit. And this is a team that we've kind

685
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 3: of expected that they would regress towards maybe the lower

686
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 3: to mid table portion of the standings. That's where they're

687
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: heading and that's where they are. But like their defense

688
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,719
Speaker 3: is still just very impressive to me. One point nine

689
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 3: to six spectacles against the Brighton, Whole valley On and

690
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 3: Manchester City. Only one goal allowed the City. I know

691
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 3: they had one truck off from bar but I think

692
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 3: that this is a team that we talked about this

693
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 3: with Brighton last last episode. Brentford I think sets up

694
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 3: as a good underdog bet because they are going to

695
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 3: scrap teams. They're gonna drag them deep into matches. They

696
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 3: did it to man City. They almost were able to

697
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 3: earn a draw. I guess the Citizens and aston Villa

698
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 3: isn't going to threaten the Bees as much as the

699
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 3: City offense would be able to. They have struggled to

700
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 3: create scoring chances. I know they're suppressing them very well

701
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 3: against under Stephen Girard, but this is a is gonna

702
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 3: be a rock fight. I'm very tempted by the draw.

703
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 3: But I actually like the number on Brentford at home

704
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 3: better two to one hopefully you can get right now,

705
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 3: but plus one ninety or better for me. Buzz baby

706
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 3: back on the Bees. Love this team, BJ What do

707
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: you think I agree.

708
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 1: This is one of those other weird lines that I

709
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: was like, how is Brentford an underdog? And I understand,

710
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 1: you know, no Rico Henry today, I know and Way

711
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 1: and waiboo, but really encouraging fronts from Brentford, you know,

712
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 1: only allowed City to create one expectacle. That's their second

713
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 1: lowest output of the entire season. And you know, obviously

714
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 1: they haven't looked great offensively their last two matches, you know,

715
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: with only one point one total expected goals against City

716
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: and Brighton, but those are two top five defenses in

717
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 1: the Premier League. Aston Villa has improved under Stephen Gerrard,

718
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: but their offense hasn't only gotten much better, only six

719
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: point six expected goals in his seven matches in charge Brentford.

720
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: Like you said, Michael, incredible defense to outfit only one

721
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: point one four non pill league expect goals allowed for match.

722
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 1: They're only allowing a little under twelve shots for ninety minutes,

723
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: which is inside the top five in the Premier League.

724
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 1: So it's gonna be difficult for aston Villa, who is

725
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 1: bottom five and pretty much every single offensive metric, to

726
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 1: actually create a lot of chances. If we go to

727
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: when these two teams met earlier this season. I understand

728
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 1: Astonville was under Dean Smith, but Brentford was by far

729
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: the better side. They won the expected goals battle one

730
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: point one two point six. They had more touches in

731
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: the paal there, they had more shot creating actions, they

732
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: had more interceptions and tackles than Villa. So I really

733
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 1: don't understand on the flip side, how we're gonna have Brentford,

734
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: you know, essentially as a slight underdog to aston Villa.

735
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 1: I mean, Brentford's pressing should be able to you know,

736
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 1: fluster aston Villa, because aston Villa is one of the

737
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 1: worst teams against pressure in the Premier League. They're nineteenth

738
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: in offensive passes for defensive actions, so you know, on

739
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 1: top of all that, Astonville is one of the worst

740
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 1: teams at defending set pieces in the Premier League. Brentford

741
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 1: one of the most efficient teams off of corners. So

742
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: there are so many signs that point to, you know,

743
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 1: this being a positive and a lot of advantages for Brentford.

744
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 1: I have them projected at plus one twenty. This is

745
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: probably one of the biggest edges I think I've had

746
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: all season on any team in any match. So I

747
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: love the bes drawn no Bett at plus one twenty.

748
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 3: The type of team that you just want to puff

749
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 3: your chest out and be there with them, right like

750
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 3: there's always an honest effort there. You might not make

751
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 3: money betting Brentford every week in and week out, but

752
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 3: they're going to give you their best. That is a

753
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 3: nice thing to watch, especially if you're been watching Bowl

754
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 3: games and stuff like that and you see someone just

755
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 3: completely light it egg. It's so refreshing to watch a

756
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 3: team that shows up or evert it. By the way,

757
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 3: if you've been watching efort in em betting them, they

758
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 3: don't really tend to show up much. But watching a

759
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 3: team that you know they're going to come out and

760
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 3: they're going to give you their best. It sounds cheesy,

761
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 3: but that's what this Brentford team's been doing. And Anthony,

762
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 3: you love them too.

763
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think you've reached the agreement portion of the podcast,

764
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: because I know looking at our sheet we're going to

765
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 2: be agreeing on a lot of games down the stretch

766
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 2: here and Brentford. This is the first of two where

767
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 2: I have the wrong team favored, or at least the

768
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 2: wrong team is favored in my opinion. Based on my projections,

769
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 2: I don't have them quite as big of an edge

770
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 2: as BJ does, but I definitely show value on the BS.

771
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 2: I make them minus one point fifteen, so pretty much

772
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 2: flip the line and that's where you end up. They

773
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 2: only allowed Villa, that is, only allowed one point two

774
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 2: non penalty expecting goals to Chelsea, so it was an

775
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 2: okay defensive performance. Three to one loss looks a lot

776
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 2: worse when you factor in two penalties and the cross

777
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 2: they conceded from. But I think the biggest thing here

778
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: is just Brentford at home when they've played in front

779
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 2: of their fans, they had the sixth best expected goal

780
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 2: difference compared to eleventh best on the road. That doesn't

781
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 2: sound that different. You'd expect a team to play better

782
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: at home and six and eleventh is pretty noisy and

783
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 2: a short sample. But let's consider who they've played in

784
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: those home games. They've played Arsenal at home, beat them

785
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 2: two nil, played Chelsea at home, outplayed them for the

786
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 2: entire second half, lost one nil. They played Liverpool at

787
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: home to a thrilling three to three draw, and then

788
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 2: they had the one nil lost to City today. So

789
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 2: they've played four of the comfortably. I'd say at this

790
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 2: point six best teams in the league, four of the

791
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: big six all at home, and they have had the

792
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,439
Speaker 2: sixth best difference at home despite that. So we'll see

793
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 2: what happens when they have to go on the road

794
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 2: to these bigger sides, and I think that'll be a

795
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: much bigger challenge second half of the season. But they've

796
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,280
Speaker 2: shown themselves to be an excellent home side who creates

797
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 2: more chances at home. I know there's some issues with

798
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 2: squad depth, and Thomas Frank talked about that today, but again,

799
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 2: like Michael mentioned too, you're always gonna get a great

800
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 2: effort from them. I think they're a better team than

801
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 2: Villa and they're at home. So I like the Bees

802
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 2: and as we get into the next game, I know

803
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 2: we're all gonna I think agree on that one as well.

804
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're all going to be in the foxhole together

805
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 3: for Brentford, and we're all going to be in the

806
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 3: foxhoul together for Brighton. Hov aalby on plus one ninety

807
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 3: underdogs for some reason traveling to Goodison Park to take

808
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 3: on my Everton Topees. The heartbreaking Everton Toffees plus one

809
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 3: fifty five at home the draws plus two twenty five.

810
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 3: This is another nine am kickoff on Sunday. I mean,

811
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 3: I don't even you guys were just talking about the

812
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 3: previous two games Palace and then Brentford not understanding the line.

813
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 3: And Brighton is a much better team than ever, like a,

814
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 3: this isn't this isn't really that close. I don't think

815
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 3: in terms of also like available personnel, Brighton is not

816
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 3: nearly as banged up as evident. Yes, they might get

817
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 3: Dominic Calvert Lewin back. We say that every week because

818
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 3: they keep getting their games postponed and that's good for them.

819
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 3: Jarry Mina who knows Luka Deen has been out of

820
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 3: favor with Rapa Beneatha's but they might need to call

821
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 3: him into duty for a put me in the window

822
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 3: kind of thing for Chelsea because they're interested in buying

823
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 3: the French fullback. But boy, I don't understand this one,

824
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 3: and I don't even want to get it too deep

825
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 3: into it because it will depress me, so I'll let

826
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 3: you guys do it instead. But yeah, bja, how can

827
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 3: you look at it right at this number?

828
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 1: I can't. I don't understand why they're plus money on

829
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 1: the Toronto bet line. It makes absolutely no sense to me.

830
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,959
Speaker 1: Everyton's still injury real the latest you know injury report

831
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 1: that we saw. It's basically all the guys who talked

832
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 1: about Lad pot Well, they're still out, you know, Dominic

833
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 1: calval Lewin's you know in But Brighton looks so good

834
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 1: today that how can you not look away from them?

835
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:37,919
Speaker 1: I mean they won the expected goals battle against Chelsea

836
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: and outshot them eighteen to twelve, and then I can't

837
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: tell you how good of a matchup this is for

838
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 1: Brighton because number one, they are a top three pressing

839
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 1: team in the Premier League and Brentford is bottom three

840
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 1: against pressure. So they're gonna be able to win the

841
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 1: ball in the middle of the field, control possession and

842
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: create just a ton of chances against Everton defense. That's

843
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 1: probably gonna be without Urimina. When Urymina is not in

844
00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: the lineup, they allow one point sixty five expected goals

845
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 1: from match. With him in the lineup, they allow only

846
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 1: one point one two expected goals for match. So with

847
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 1: Michael Keane playing alongside Mason hulgator Ben Godfrey, it's just

848
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 1: it doesn't work. You know, they have no center pack TPH.

849
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:13,399
Speaker 1: So you know, this could be another situation. This could

850
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 1: be a classic Brighton performance where it ends in like

851
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 1: a zero zero draw and Brighton, you know, creates like

852
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 1: two point five expected goals to Everton's point three. But

853
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 1: I don't understand why Everton has favored I. You know,

854
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:26,759
Speaker 1: even if they were healthy, I still would kind of

855
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 1: be like's, I would still probably favor Brighton in this way.

856
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 3: I suggest this would be the number if Everton was healthy, right,

857
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 3: and you know, you when you go back to early

858
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 3: in the season these two played, you know, Brighton was

859
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 3: riding high after two wins.

860
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 1: Everton came in and just swatted them like they completely

861
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 1: dominated them. But that you know, Everton was fully healthy

862
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 1: at that point. And obviously since that point these teams

863
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 1: have gone in just absolutely opposite directions. So you know, again,

864
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 1: I don't see how you don't play Brighton here. You know,

865
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 1: if you're hearing this podcast, I'd probably play it right

866
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,879
Speaker 1: now because I don't see how this number can get

867
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: much better for Everton. You know, maybe if Tomori Gray

868
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 1: is playing, that's great, but still no where Chidless and

869
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 1: like still know Andrews Townsend, So you know, Dominie Calvert

870
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 1: Lean coming off a long term thigh injury. You know,

871
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 1: I don't really expect him to go with the full

872
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 1: ninety minutes and you know, potentially, you know risk you know,

873
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 1: reinjuring Nex because he's done it already I think one

874
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 1: or two times already during his rehabs. So I honestly

875
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 1: don't see how you look away from Brighton here. So

876
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 1: I'll take Brighton on the drawn on that line at

877
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen.

878
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 3: And we talked about it a lot with Brighton that

879
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 3: if you can't move the ball through their midfield, you

880
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 3: are going to be in a world of hurt. And

881
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 3: who can move the ball? For everything I'm do light

882
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 3: Ducurry's all right getting through lines, but he does it

883
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,240
Speaker 3: in one way. He doesn't pass through it, right, He's

884
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 3: a dribbler and a good counter guy. A lot is

885
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 3: not going to do it. Andre Gomez, he can pick

886
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 3: a pass, but he doesn't play a full ninety minutes ever.

887
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 3: So this is a great spot for the Seagulls, right, Anthony.

888
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, we go back to the first time these two

889
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 2: teams played. I had Brighton, I lost. That was back

890
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 2: in my I'm betting Brighton every week phase and then

891
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: I came off that phase a little bit and they're

892
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 2: starting to turn it around a little bit. The biggest

893
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,760
Speaker 2: thing here about that game is that Brighton control old possession,

894
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 2: but they never really did anything with it, and Benitez

895
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 2: was very happy to let Brighton have the ball and

896
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,360
Speaker 2: then pick their spots to hit them in transition with

897
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:11,399
Speaker 2: Andros Townsend, Damari Gray, Ras Charleston, the all these good

898
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 2: attacking players who are not going to be able to

899
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 2: play for Everton in this game on Sunday. So I

900
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 2: think you lose a lot of the transition threat without

901
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 2: these guys, and I think the resulting game flow is

902
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,919
Speaker 2: that Brighton will have most of the ball and they'll

903
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 2: do their traditional passing and they'll get to the edge

904
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:29,439
Speaker 2: of the penalty area and they'll lose it a bunch

905
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:31,840
Speaker 2: and they won't create a ton of great chances, I

906
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 2: don't think. But the one person who is back for

907
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 2: Brighton and scored a great header today is Danny Welbeck.

908
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,439
Speaker 2: He adds kind of a second shot getter in this team.

909
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 2: Trossard may be back, it's unclear, but a lot of

910
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 2: today it was just Neil Malpey and a bunch of

911
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 2: bad finishers and guys who don't get a lot of shots,

912
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:52,800
Speaker 2: and guys don't do a ton to get good chances

913
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:55,760
Speaker 2: that aren't twenty plus yard shots. But well Beck adds

914
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 2: another piece in the penalty area that can give Everton

915
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 2: some issues and that they can finish off chances and

916
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 2: get his head on some crosses. So I think, you know,

917
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 2: with Kuckarey, a, Lamptey, Welbeck and Malpey, Brighton has more

918
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 2: than enough to create here. Soli March had a great

919
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 2: game today as well, So I think the Seagulls should

920
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 2: not be underdogs and I have them minus one eight.

921
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 2: So again, wrong team favored here. I'll take the Seagulls

922
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 2: on the road. I also like the Bees at home,

923
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:23,760
Speaker 2: but the Bees and the Seagulls are two favorite teams.

924
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 2: We get to back them two matches in a row,

925
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 2: so let's do it.

926
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 3: I would throw Palace in there too for me, Like

927
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 3: I mean, these three games we just talked about in succession.

928
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 3: It's one of those situations as a better where you

929
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,720
Speaker 3: feel so so good about the spots and the plays

930
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,760
Speaker 3: and then all of a sudden, what's going to happen? Palace?

931
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 3: Maybe they'll give up a penalty in like the second

932
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 3: minute at a red card, they'll lose. Brighton will do

933
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 3: what they do, They'll lose, and then Brentford. Maybe they'll

934
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 3: just get pasted by sen Villa and you'll go oh

935
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:52,399
Speaker 3: and three and we'll look stupid next week another nine

936
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 3: am kickoff on Sunday. That's Southampton minus one forty odds

937
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 3: on hosting Newcastle United four to one on the money

938
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 3: line the drust plus two eighty five. I got nothing here.

939
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 3: I want to bet against Newcastle as often as a ken,

940
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 3: but I'm not going to. I think my ethics are

941
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 3: maybe clouding. My judgment is a handicapper with Newcastle. I'm

942
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 3: staying away from this one. Anthony, do you see any

943
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 3: way to get involved in Southampton Newcastle?

944
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 2: You know I want to get involved on Newcastle as

945
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,320
Speaker 2: a good dog here, but they just lost Calum Wilson

946
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 2: and alence and maximum injury. Great performance against Man United

947
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 2: at home Boss, large portions of the match look dangerous

948
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: in transition, nearly won it and stoppage time, great save

949
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,720
Speaker 2: from Dehya, some bad luck off the post, encouraging stuff

950
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 2: from Eddie How's Newcastle, but Wilson Saint Maximum are out

951
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 2: Kalon Clark looks like he's out, Isaac Hayden is out,

952
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 2: Javier Manko is out. Various injuries and suspensions. They're gonna

953
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 2: probably want this game postponed again. Saints have some issues too,

954
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,800
Speaker 2: Kyle Walker Peters is out, Salad Sue is suspended, William

955
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 2: Smallbone picked up an injury. Jay Adams didn't start against Spurs.

956
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 2: He's injured. There's so much injury issue here, Like, I

957
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,320
Speaker 2: don't know who's gonna end up making the Elevenice desire

958
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 2: to lay minus one sixty or lay a spread with Southampton.

959
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 2: They've been very bad with leads this year. They also

960
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 2: are not a great favorite. But I also think they

961
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,240
Speaker 2: have a good matchup here in the sense that Newcastle

962
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 2: doesn't do well against teams who are going to play

963
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 2: a high intensity game and they're going to force Newcastle's

964
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 2: backup center backs to play the ball a lot, and

965
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 2: I think that's a recipe for disaster against Saints, who

966
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 2: can turn you over and create high chances, high big

967
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 2: scoring chances. From there, I can find reasons to not

968
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,439
Speaker 2: play this game, and that's all I need to say.

969
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 2: I will pass.

970
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 1: Yeah. One thing I'll mention though, when these two teams

971
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 1: met lest the earlier in the season. It was a

972
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 1: crazy two to two draw that had two goals in

973
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 1: stoppage time. I believe Newcastle scored in the nineteth minute

974
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,479
Speaker 1: and then Southampton out a penalty. In like the ninety

975
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 1: six Southampton had three point six expected goals, so you know,

976
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 1: has a lot changed since then? Not really with Newcastle

977
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 1: defensively that's actually the most expected goals. Then Newcastle is

978
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 1: allowed in any match all season, so you know, obviously

979
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 1: Newcastle is horrible against pressure. Like Anthony mentioned Southamptons pressure

980
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 1: to be able win the ball, but who knows it's

981
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 1: going to be in the lineup. There's no chance in

982
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: laying you know, anything north of minus one to forty

983
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 1: with Southampton. My way to get it better number live.

984
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: You know, I put this in the Action over cap

985
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:05,399
Speaker 1: earlier on Monday. But new Newcastle is the worst team

986
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 1: by expectable differential in the second half this season, so potentially,

987
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 1: you know, I've said that snoozer for a first half.

988
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: You know, in Southampton's dominating obviously with no Callum Wilson

989
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 1: and no Alan sat Maximum, it's tough to see how

990
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: Newcastle is actually great chances, so maybe wait to get

991
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 1: Southampton on a better number live.

992
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm one for one of my postponement predictions at

993
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 2: the average Newcastle postponement. I'm calling for a postponement in

994
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 2: this game, so we'll see if it ends up getting played.

995
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: Postponement plus two.

996
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 3: Hundred styles make fights, and you can't really look at

997
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 3: two teams that have a more different ethos about playing

998
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 3: soccer than Leeds United, who are plus one ten hosting

999
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 3: apparently the Clarits plus two fifty traveling to Ellen Road,

1000
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,880
Speaker 3: the Draws plus two sixty nine am kickoff on Sunday.

1001
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 3: And as much as as we all think about Burnley

1002
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 3: as this sturdy, stodgy defense, they've they've struggled in that

1003
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 3: regard this season. They've been a little leaky, but the

1004
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:58,800
Speaker 3: Leeds lineup has been decimated with COVID. They've been postponing

1005
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 3: games and basically begging the Premier League to postpone their

1006
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 3: games because they just haven't had enough players that you

1007
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 3: could recognize. I mean, it's I feel bad for Biels.

1008
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 3: I think this has been a curse season for Leeds

1009
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 3: United a little bit, Anthony. As you said in the

1010
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 3: preseason preview that the sentiment on Leads was way too

1011
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 3: high coming off their impressive season last year. But they're

1012
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 3: not this bad, I don't think when you look at

1013
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 3: their talent level, their manager. However, in this matchup right now,

1014
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 3: it's a pass for me. But depending on what kind

1015
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 3: of team Leads showed out for Sunday morning, I really

1016
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:30,400
Speaker 3: don't mind a bet on Burnley here and BJ I

1017
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 3: know you don't either, No, Yeah, I.

1018
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 1: Like, I like over two and a half goals in

1019
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 1: this and you know, potentially love Burnley as you know,

1020
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 1: potentially my favorite underdog. But I mean Leeds defensively just

1021
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 1: been horrible. I know they've played you know, a tough

1022
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 1: scheduleties you know, last month and a half or so,

1023
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 1: but fifteen point six expectacles allowed in their last seven

1024
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 1: matches there, Like you said, they're they're an injury crisis

1025
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 1: right now. No Calvin Phillips, no Rodrigo, no Liam Cooper,

1026
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,359
Speaker 1: no Diego Jorente and no Daniel James for this match.

1027
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 1: The biggest thing for Leeds is that they're facing a

1028
00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 1: lot of teams lately that are very good versus pressure

1029
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: and they're just getting exploited. Surprisingly, Burnley actually is pretty

1030
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 1: good versus pressure. They're sixth and pressure success right loud,

1031
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: and they're the most pressed team of anybody in the

1032
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 1: Premier League this season, so they're used to it by

1033
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 1: this point. And we're getting to be also kind of

1034
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 1: burn out here with obviously not very many people being lineup,

1035
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:17,359
Speaker 1: so it's kind of sad. I feel like he's kind

1036
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 1: of on the edge, which is very sad because we

1037
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 1: all love watching Leeds style of play, but historically, especially

1038
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 1: for this matchup, his teams are horrible against set pieces.

1039
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:28,879
Speaker 1: They'll have the most set piece goals in the Premier

1040
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 1: League last year with fifteen, and it hasn't gotten much

1041
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,240
Speaker 1: better because they've already allowed seven goals off of set pieces,

1042
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 1: and as we all know, Burnley relies on set pieces

1043
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:38,359
Speaker 1: to create most of their chances. It's counted for forty

1044
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 1: eight percent of their expected goals this season. Leads should

1045
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: have plenty of chances, though offensively, considering their seventh in

1046
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 1: shots per ninety minutes and eighth in box entry as

1047
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 1: while Burnley is dead last in both of those categories.

1048
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 1: When these two teams met earlier at turf Moore, it

1049
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: was one to one draw, but two point nine expected

1050
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 1: goals were created and there was close to forty shot

1051
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: creating actions, so I think we'll see a little more

1052
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 1: high scoring match than that. You know, I think this

1053
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 1: is going to be you know, Burnley will obviously be

1054
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 1: able to hit some hit leads on the counter, but

1055
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 1: you know, leads will also I'd be able to have

1056
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 1: a lot of chances in front of nets. So I

1057
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 1: have two point seven five goals projected for this one,

1058
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 1: so I like over two and a half goals in

1059
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 1: mine as well.

1060
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:13,440
Speaker 2: Five.

1061
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 3: Anthony, are you going to be joining us on betting

1062
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 3: this match? You're passing where you're going for leads and Barrenly.

1063
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 2: I'm excited to see that Patrick Bamford may be back.

1064
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 2: That could be fun. He's good and I think that's

1065
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,479
Speaker 2: been the number one issue actually why they were worse

1066
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 2: prior to this last month or so, where the injuries

1067
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 2: pretty much made them unplayable in a bad way in

1068
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 2: terms of betting, not unplayable in the way that the

1069
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 2: English use it. But Bamford's absence kind of creates a

1070
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 2: hole in this team. They don't get the shot production

1071
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 2: from everybody else to make up for it, to make

1072
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 2: up for the fact that their defense is god awful.

1073
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 2: This is a leads or pass spot though. For me,

1074
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 2: I want to see who's coming back, but I think

1075
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 2: they're just a little cheap here at anything plus money

1076
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 2: on leads. But again, going to be a wait and

1077
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 2: see thing. We're going to get team news probably on Saturday,

1078
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 2: and we'll figure out who's gonna be available and who's not.

1079
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:05,960
Speaker 2: We'll see what mister b Elsa has to say about that.

1080
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 2: If they've got you know, half of those guys back,

1081
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 2: maybe I'll be interested. I wouldn't be surprised if they

1082
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 2: want this postponed too, But until we know, you know

1083
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 2: who's available for Leeds, it's really hard to back them

1084
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:19,799
Speaker 2: at all against anybody, even at home against Burnley, who

1085
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:22,720
Speaker 2: we call them a good defense or like a sturdy defense,

1086
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 2: but they're just really bad. So I'm staying away for now.

1087
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's just their reputation more than anything.

1088
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,919
Speaker 3: It's and it's fun to lean into it. But yeah,

1089
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 3: this is a This is gonna be a weird one

1090
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 3: both on paper when the line has come out, and

1091
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 3: I'm really interested to see where this number goes when

1092
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 3: those lineups do come out. All right, the last game

1093
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 3: on the Slate. It's a Monday evening session over in

1094
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 3: Manchester at Old Trafford United minus one eighty hosting Wolves

1095
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 3: five to one on the money line the Truss plus

1096
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 3: three thirty eight hundred Portuguese people are gonna be on

1097
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 3: the field in this one. You know, everyone on Wolves's

1098
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 3: Portuguese again, Bruno, you got Ronaldo a man. People in

1099
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:03,320
Speaker 3: Lisbon will be tuning in to see Wolverhampton, the Portuguese

1100
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:05,520
Speaker 3: club from the Black country of England, pull the upset

1101
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 3: five to one. I like the number here. This is

1102
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 3: a team that in their matches this year one point

1103
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 3: five total goals on average. That's the lowest number in

1104
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:14,840
Speaker 3: the Premier League by far. What that tells me is

1105
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 3: they can turn matches into slugfests. And what do you

1106
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 3: look for from a big underdog that quality, especially against

1107
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 3: a team like Manchester United that is significantly flawed. I

1108
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 3: mean this is not I think we all expect them

1109
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:29,840
Speaker 3: to get better over the next eighteen months, but in

1110
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:32,879
Speaker 3: a one game sample, just a few weeks into Ralph

1111
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 3: Rangnick's tenure, they are still showing some signs of it

1112
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 3: being a fragile team. Speaking of Portuguese, Bruno Fernandez. Where

1113
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 3: has he been? I think that this is a good

1114
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 3: spot on a really big number here for Wolverhampton at

1115
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 3: five to one, I expect their defense to be able

1116
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 3: to at least hang in there like they did against Liverpool. Yeah,

1117
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 3: they're lucky in that, but that itself is a good

1118
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:53,279
Speaker 3: quality and a team that brave defending, being able to

1119
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 3: get in their way of big chances and help your

1120
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 3: goaltender out goalkeeper out their goalkeeper too. By the way,

1121
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 3: Jose sosmen pretty good this season. I like Wolves money

1122
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 3: line five to one. Can't look away, Anthony, what about you?

1123
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're recording this before we know the result of

1124
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 2: the Manchester United against Burnley match. I do expect United

1125
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 2: to take care of business in that one at home.

1126
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 2: They're pretty solid favorites. I don't think that performance will

1127
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,359
Speaker 2: alter this line too much. We have to go back though,

1128
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 2: to the first time these two teams played. It was

1129
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 2: a one nil away win for man United. One of

1130
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 2: the most misrepresentative finals of the entire year in the

1131
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 2: Premier League. I had both teams to score lost. Wolves

1132
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 2: missed two open nets, Deha made some unbelievable saves. They

1133
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 2: created over one point eight expected goals outside of the City,

1134
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 2: Chelsea and Liverpool games, which clearly United was outclassed. Only

1135
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 2: Watford and Lester created more XG and that was at

1136
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: the very end of the ol era. So this was

1137
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 2: before the Wheels really came off re United. They were

1138
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:58,359
Speaker 2: pasted by Wolves in transition and if you go back

1139
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 2: and look at how Ragnick's team played against Newcastle, a

1140
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:04,800
Speaker 2: much worse team than Wolves, they were very vulnerable in

1141
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,839
Speaker 2: transition and they looked like every time Newcastle ran at

1142
00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:09,239
Speaker 2: them with the ball at their feet, they were on

1143
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 2: the verge of scoring. The question is how much does

1144
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 2: mister Lage want to go after United and how much

1145
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 2: aggression is he going to play with because it seems

1146
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 2: to me that they've been significantly less aggressive in the

1147
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 2: last ten matches, and we've talked about this. They've gone

1148
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 2: under eighth straight. It doesn't happen without some type of

1149
00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 2: concerted effort to play more conservatively. That being said, I

1150
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 2: don't expect Wolves to have an attack this bad forever.

1151
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 2: I think it's a great matchup for them. Arsenal was

1152
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:38,760
Speaker 2: just minus one twenty five at home against this Wolves

1153
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 2: team before the game was postponed. Now Men United's minus

1154
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 2: one to eighty. I think United's better than Arsenal in

1155
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 2: the long term, but they're definitely not playing better than

1156
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 2: them right now, and they're definitely not eight nine percent better,

1157
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 2: which is what the market is kind of suggesting here.

1158
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 2: So I love Wolves at plus one and I will

1159
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 2: be doing some money line as well, because I think,

1160
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 2: like Michael said, this is close enough to a toss

1161
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 2: up game that the plus five hundred is a pretty

1162
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:03,439
Speaker 2: crazy number.

1163
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 3: Yeah. That a early season matchup between these two teams,

1164
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 3: beautiful Day at the moll on you and Wolves was

1165
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 3: one of their best performances of the season. They lose

1166
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 3: one nail and I was on them for that one too.

1167
00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:17,840
Speaker 1: BJ Oh, Yeah, I'm with you guys. Wolves plus one

1168
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 1: and minus one ten. So Rangnick changed his formation to

1169
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:22,479
Speaker 1: a four to two to two two, so very narrow

1170
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 1: what he normally played during his time in Germany. And

1171
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:27,240
Speaker 1: that formation can work, you know, especially if you're pressing

1172
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 1: a successful rate and you know you move as a

1173
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:33,400
Speaker 1: cohesive unit, you pressed cohesively. Well, Manchester United is doing

1174
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 1: none of that. Like Anthony said, there are so many

1175
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 1: times that you watch United and you just see Scott

1176
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:41,720
Speaker 1: mctomeny or Fred just getting pushed way up to the box,

1177
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 1: and then when a team wins the ball, you're like,

1178
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:45,840
Speaker 1: oh my gosh, there's just so much open area for

1179
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: them to just go forward. And the first time these

1180
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 1: two teams met it was Adam Montrora who just torched

1181
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 1: Manchester United up and down the field. And you know,

1182
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 1: playing that narrow formation, you know, you're playing a team

1183
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 1: in Wolves who likes to play a three four three,

1184
00:51:57,520 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 1: so they rely a lot on their wing backs to

1185
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 1: get forward and create some chances, and they're going to

1186
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 1: be afforded a ton of area, you know, down the sides,

1187
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:06,399
Speaker 1: down the sides of the pitch, so you know, it's

1188
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:09,320
Speaker 1: a great matchup for Wolves. You know, man United pressed

1189
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,799
Speaker 1: a lot better against Newcastle forty percent successful pressure rate,

1190
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:14,800
Speaker 1: but then again that is Newcastle. They're one of the

1191
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 1: worst teams in the Premier League against pressure. This is

1192
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 1: a great spot for Wolves, you know, Like you know, I,

1193
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:20,800
Speaker 1: like I said, we don't expect their offense to be

1194
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 1: this bad for this long, but this is still a

1195
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 1: really really good defensive unit, really good structure. So I

1196
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 1: love the Wolves plus.

1197
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 4: One at minus one ten And like Anthony said, Obviously

1198
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 4: I'm an Arsenal fan, so you know I'm a little

1199
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 4: bit biased, but I don't see how Manchester United is

1200
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 4: sixty points better than Arsenal on a lot and that just.

1201
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 1: Makes no sense to me.

1202
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 3: You know.

1203
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 2: The one interesting thing you go back to that game,

1204
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 2: right that was the first concern, you know, is United

1205
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 2: better this year or not? We had that question. I

1206
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 2: thought they would be marginally better but still have flaws.

1207
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:53,399
Speaker 2: That match was like the whoa everything that we thought

1208
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 2: was wrong with United last year, where they were luck

1209
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 2: boxing results but not really playing great. That's exactly what

1210
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 2: happened again. And we were like, Okay, you know it's

1211
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 2: not that good. But we thought Wolves were going to

1212
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 2: be this expansive counter attacking team that hasn't really come true.

1213
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:09,440
Speaker 2: But the United four two two two can work, I agree,

1214
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 2: but not with the front four they played on Monday.

1215
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 2: I mean, Rinaldo, Greenwood, for Nance and Rashford all like

1216
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 2: to have the ball at their feet, all like to

1217
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 2: beat a man off the dribble. None of them are

1218
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:23,160
Speaker 2: good at winning the ball back, none of them are

1219
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 2: great pressers, and they just looked so exposed. I actually

1220
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 2: felt bad for Fred and mcdonmeney, who I thought were decent,

1221
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 2: but it's it's so impossible to play tactically with that

1222
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:36,319
Speaker 2: front four and try to press cohesively because they lose.

1223
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 2: The four of them just lose the ball too much

1224
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:40,560
Speaker 2: and it doesn't work. And so I'm concerned about this

1225
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 2: matchup quite a bit for United and hopefully we get

1226
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 2: a beatdown of Burnley maybe and we can get a

1227
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 2: better number on Wolves.

1228
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:50,960
Speaker 3: All right, that wraps up the Premier League portion of

1229
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 3: the program. Let's move on to La Liga quickly. BJ.

1230
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:57,480
Speaker 3: Do you have a favorite bet over in space?

1231
00:53:57,840 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1232
00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:01,400
Speaker 1: I like Real Associated plus one thirty five on the

1233
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 1: road against Alive. So if you guys are wondering what

1234
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 1: happened to our fifty to one Real Sociate dad ticket

1235
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 1: Anthony completely jinxs it when they beat Ossuna to nothing.

1236
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 1: He messaged us and said Real Sociad is winning La

1237
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 1: Liga and what have they done since then? They have

1238
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 1: one point since then and they're completely out of the

1239
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 1: title race. So thanks Anthony, but no, this is just

1240
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:21,759
Speaker 1: a you know, it's a great by low spot for them.

1241
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:23,759
Speaker 1: They're relatively healthy. You know a lot of teams around

1242
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 1: Spain have a ton of COVID cases, none really have

1243
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:28,239
Speaker 1: been reported that much. For real associate Dad, this is

1244
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 1: an Now based team that's you know, bottom five offensively

1245
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 1: and defensively in non penalty expected goals. I have them

1246
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,040
Speaker 1: projected at plus one thirteen, so I think it's just

1247
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:40,280
Speaker 1: a great matchup in a good get right spot for realsos.

1248
00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:42,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, Anthony, what's your favorite bet in La Liga?

1249
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:46,719
Speaker 2: Worst team in Spain? Cadiz and Sevilla both teams to score, Yes,

1250
00:54:46,760 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 2: plus one fifteen, just another severe fade. I don't know

1251
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 2: how they only conceded one goal to Barcelona, but they did.

1252
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:56,919
Speaker 2: I'm really looking to play against them, but I also

1253
00:54:56,960 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 2: don't trust Cadiz to get a result here given how

1254
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 2: their numbers are. That being said, I do think they

1255
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 2: will get on the board here. Savilla continues to run

1256
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:06,720
Speaker 2: ridiculously hot at both ends of the pitch, but especially

1257
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:10,320
Speaker 2: on defense, which is harder to sustain over performance for

1258
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:13,360
Speaker 2: long given how poorly teams have been shooting and finishing

1259
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 2: chances against them, So I think Cadiz will find the

1260
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 2: back of the net here. Sevilla should get one two

1261
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 2: given how poor Cadiz is defensively, and thus I think

1262
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:22,319
Speaker 2: both teams will get on the board.

1263
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: Here, Saba is also down I think their top three

1264
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 1: center backs for this match, because you know Kunde got

1265
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 1: red card for throwing a ball at Georgie Alva's face,

1266
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 1: and then you know a couple of other guys we've

1267
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 1: gotten COVID like Theo Carlos so I also, you know,

1268
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:36,759
Speaker 1: I put it in the action Nework aap a like

1269
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:39,080
Speaker 1: over two goals in minus one twenty five, so essentially

1270
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:41,440
Speaker 1: the same thing. But you know, I agree with Anthony, and.

1271
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 2: If you are someone who bets, you know Germany, France, Spain,

1272
00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 2: Italy will be doing that as those leagues picked back

1273
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:49,800
Speaker 2: up again. But Omicron's coming like it just got to

1274
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 2: London first, it got to England first, and it's going

1275
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 2: to probably recavoc on the rest of the continent next.

1276
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 2: So just keep that in mind. Barcelona's going through it,

1277
00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:58,400
Speaker 2: real Madrid's going through it. It's going to get to Germany,

1278
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 2: it's going to get to France and Italy. Keep that

1279
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 2: in mind as you're placing bets. And I think we're

1280
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,960
Speaker 2: gonna start to see some postponements around the rest of Europe,

1281
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:08,600
Speaker 2: just like we saw in the prem Unfortunately.

1282
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 3: On that positive noteheel now move favorite portion of the

1283
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 3: program our favorite underdogs in the Premier League this weekend.

1284
00:56:17,280 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 3: We have a lot. I mean, we could give eight

1285
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 3: or nine I feel like this week, but we're gonna

1286
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 3: limit it to one per customer, and I let Anthony

1287
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:27,320
Speaker 3: start because usually I'm the one who's giving out the

1288
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:32,160
Speaker 3: big priced pooches. This time you're taking my stick laid honest.

1289
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:34,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, like you said, we didn't think that the last

1290
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 2: week was a great slate for underdogs. A lot of

1291
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:39,000
Speaker 2: them covered, but the Leicester was the only really big

1292
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 2: one that won. But I love some of the underdogs

1293
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 2: that we've got this weekend. Wolves plus five hundred is

1294
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 2: where I'm going. It's the biggest one that I've given

1295
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 2: out on this podcast. I just talked about this a

1296
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:51,759
Speaker 2: minute ago. The four to two two that Ragnick wants

1297
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:54,839
Speaker 2: to play. The personnel aren't really matching up well, at

1298
00:56:54,920 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 2: least the personnel that he's choosing to play with. They're

1299
00:56:57,040 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 2: really vulnerable in defensive transition. Newcastle showed that, you know,

1300
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:03,400
Speaker 2: they got a luckbox draw in that game. I think Wolves,

1301
00:57:03,640 --> 00:57:05,880
Speaker 2: given the attacking regression they have, we'll be able to

1302
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:08,080
Speaker 2: get out and transition here. They haven't played in a

1303
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 2: little while, so they should be getting some guys back

1304
00:57:09,680 --> 00:57:12,440
Speaker 2: from COVID as well. All that combines into a good

1305
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 2: wolve spot here on the road plus five hundred at

1306
00:57:15,320 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 2: Old Trafford, I think they're they're quite under value here.

1307
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 3: For me, I like Crystal Palace plus two to fifteen

1308
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 3: at home against west Ham United. These two teams I

1309
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 3: think are near equals. Then you throw in Palace's home

1310
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:29,800
Speaker 3: field advantage plus the west Ham injury issues, especially on defense,

1311
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:31,720
Speaker 3: and I think you have a pretty good recipe for

1312
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 3: an upset here in a London derby. So plus two

1313
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:38,320
Speaker 3: to fifteen on the Eagles twelve to thirty pm on Saturday,

1314
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:40,600
Speaker 3: I think is a great number for on a very

1315
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 3: strong team. This season bj.

1316
00:57:43,320 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 1: Earnly plus two fifty on the road it leads Leeds

1317
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 1: has been horrific defensively, like I already mentioned, fifteen point

1318
00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 1: six expectacles allowed in their last seven matches. They're going

1319
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: through an injury crisis. Burnley is in obviously, they create

1320
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 1: most of their chances off of set pieces. They have

1321
00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 1: close to six goals off of corners this season. Marcelo

1322
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 1: Biels's sides historically are horrific against set pieces, so great

1323
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 1: matchup for Burnley to maybe nick and a goal off

1324
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 1: of a corner. Leeds should be able to create some chances.

1325
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 1: But you know, then again, Burnley's doing a much better

1326
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 1: job at blocking shots. And you know, the last time

1327
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:18,680
Speaker 1: these two teams matter, it was a pretty even match,

1328
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 1: you know, pretty even, unexpected goals and a one to

1329
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 1: one draw. I think this is a great spot for

1330
00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 1: Burnley to pick off an injury riddled Leeds team where

1331
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:28,800
Speaker 1: Burnley is relatively healthy. So give me Sean Ditsch, give

1332
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 1: me the Clarence plus two fifty.

1333
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 3: You wrap all three of those teams together in a

1334
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:36,400
Speaker 3: moneyline parlay, you're looking at a sixty five to one payout.

1335
00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 3: I mean it, it feels like a lock this week,

1336
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:42,000
Speaker 3: it really does, and we never say that. All right,

1337
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 3: let's move on to very quickly our favorite bets for

1338
00:58:45,080 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 3: this week's Premier League action. I'm going to kick it

1339
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:49,400
Speaker 3: off because it is a depressing one for me to

1340
00:58:49,480 --> 00:58:52,520
Speaker 3: play Brighton and whole valveyon plus one ninety right now

1341
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:56,919
Speaker 3: against my beloved Everton Toffees. Brighton is just a much

1342
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,440
Speaker 3: better team than Everton. I know they're on the road here.

1343
00:58:59,640 --> 00:59:01,200
Speaker 3: But this is a tough matchup for a team that

1344
00:59:01,240 --> 00:59:03,640
Speaker 3: has a lot of trouble stringing passes together, beating up

1345
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:05,920
Speaker 3: press that would be Everton against a team that presses

1346
00:59:06,120 --> 00:59:07,920
Speaker 3: very very well, that would be Brighton. So I think

1347
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 3: getting near two to one is a gift on the

1348
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 3: Seagulls who looked very very good against Chelsea in the

1349
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 3: midweek Grand Potter and the Brighton Seagulls they are, I mean,

1350
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 3: this is a team that when you see this type

1351
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 3: of number, we said it on last week's podcast, a

1352
00:59:21,760 --> 00:59:25,560
Speaker 3: good underdog to bet. Great defensive unit can handle Everton's attack,

1353
00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 3: which will be without Charlison, which will be without Andros Townsend,

1354
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 3: which we'll be playing with a dominic Calvert Lewin who

1355
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 3: is playing his first game back after a couple month layoffs.

1356
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:37,800
Speaker 3: So Brighton ho valt beyond plus one ninety baby, Anthony,

1357
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 3: your favorite bet this week?

1358
00:59:39,400 --> 00:59:41,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to take Liverpool minus one twenty five

1359
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:45,200
Speaker 2: on the drawn o bet line against Chelsea. Both teams

1360
00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 2: had disappointing results in the midweek, Liverpool losing at Leicester City.

1361
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:50,960
Speaker 2: They were a little bit unfortunate one the expected goals

1362
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 2: battle pretty clearly I thought they played relatively well in

1363
00:59:53,200 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 2: that match, though. Compare that with Chelsea, who's been in

1364
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 2: a bit of a rut for the last month. But

1365
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:59,520
Speaker 2: they continue to be just very overvalued in the market.

1366
00:59:59,600 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 3: Here.

1367
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 2: Liverpool opened to minus one ten, they're now up to

1368
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 2: minus one twenty five. That's pretty much as far as

1369
01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:07,360
Speaker 2: I would play the Reds in this one. Thomas Tookele

1370
01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:10,280
Speaker 2: has been complaining about injury issues, about COVID issues, he

1371
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:12,439
Speaker 2: conceded the title race is over. He said it would

1372
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 2: be stupid to think that Chelsea can maintain their Premier

1373
01:00:15,200 --> 01:00:18,160
Speaker 2: League title challenge given their current COVID cases and injuries.

1374
01:00:18,440 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 2: Liverpool were clearly the better team when these two teams

1375
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 2: played at Anfield early in the season. There was a

1376
01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:25,360
Speaker 2: red card in there, but Liverpool was clearly the better

1377
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:27,680
Speaker 2: team before the red card as well. They're clearly the

1378
01:00:27,720 --> 01:00:30,200
Speaker 2: better team based on SPI five thirty eight ratings, my

1379
01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:33,120
Speaker 2: own ratings, BJ projects Liverpool is a better team. I

1380
01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:35,120
Speaker 2: know they're on the road here, but I really think

1381
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 2: Chelsea given that Inngolo Conte isn't particularly fit, Rhys James

1382
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:42,520
Speaker 2: is out, Ben Chilwell is out. All of that means

1383
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:44,919
Speaker 2: Liverpool will dominate the flow of this game, will create

1384
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:47,360
Speaker 2: more chances and is the much more likely winners. So

1385
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:49,680
Speaker 2: I like Liverpool minus one twenty five on the drawn

1386
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 2: o Bett line. Even with Rulukaku back, Liverpool's getting Robertson back.

1387
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:55,520
Speaker 2: I think it's a big addition to this attack. Who

1388
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:58,120
Speaker 2: should overwhelm Chelsea's defense that hasn't been quite as good

1389
01:00:58,360 --> 01:00:58,960
Speaker 2: as last year.

1390
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:01,200
Speaker 3: All right, BJ, let's wrap this show up.

1391
01:01:01,360 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 1: Renford drawn Novett plus one twenty five at home against

1392
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:07,840
Speaker 1: aston Villa. Really encouraging performance from the BES set on

1393
01:01:07,920 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 1: Wednesday afternoon against Manchester City held them to one expected goal,

1394
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 1: which was City's second lowest expected goal output this season.

1395
01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:17,000
Speaker 1: They haven't been great offensively the last two matches one

1396
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:19,560
Speaker 1: point one total expected goals against City and Brighton, but

1397
01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 1: those are two of the top five defenses in the

1398
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 1: Premier League. Aston Villa has improved under Stephen Gerrard, but

1399
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 1: offensively they haven't been much better, only six point six

1400
01:01:27,720 --> 01:01:30,600
Speaker 1: expected goals in his seven matches in charge, and overall

1401
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:33,040
Speaker 1: for the season they're bottom five and pretty much every

1402
01:01:33,080 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 1: single offensive metrics. So going up against a Brighton defense

1403
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 1: that's only allowing one point one five non penal league

1404
01:01:38,560 --> 01:01:40,680
Speaker 1: expected goals per match. It's a great matchup for the Bees,

1405
01:01:40,720 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 1: who have been much better at home than they have

1406
01:01:42,320 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 1: been on the road. If we go back to when

1407
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:46,000
Speaker 1: these two teams met early in the season, I understand

1408
01:01:46,080 --> 01:01:48,720
Speaker 1: Dean Smith was in charge of aston Villa, but Brentford

1409
01:01:48,840 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 1: was by far the better side one unexpected goals one

1410
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:54,040
Speaker 1: point one two point six, had more touches in the

1411
01:01:54,080 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 1: penalty area, more shot creating actions, more tackles, more interceptions.

1412
01:01:57,640 --> 01:01:59,919
Speaker 1: So this is a really good matchup for Brentford team

1413
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:03,400
Speaker 1: that is I think much better than aston Villa right now.

1414
01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:06,000
Speaker 1: And I actually have Renford projected as a plus one

1415
01:02:06,120 --> 01:02:08,800
Speaker 1: twenty favorite, so I don't really understand why they're underdogs

1416
01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 1: at home. So give me the Bees. John O Bett

1417
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:12,439
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty five.

1418
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 3: Well, it's been at pleasure, gentlemen. It's going to be

1419
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:18,160
Speaker 3: a fun weekend of Premier League matches. A lot to

1420
01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:21,360
Speaker 3: look forward to this weekend. So for Anthony Defundo from Beachy,

1421
01:02:21,400 --> 01:02:23,200
Speaker 3: County Ham, I'm Michael Leba, wishing you a happy new

1422
01:02:23,280 --> 01:02:26,640
Speaker 3: year and good luck on your footy flutters this weekend.

1423
01:02:27,080 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 3: We'll see you on Monday morning