1 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: Lots of guys. How are you welcome into a Sunday 2 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is 3 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: Matt Peralt. You guys can follow me across all of 4 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,320 Speaker 1: my socials at Sportstock. Matt in this podcast being brought 5 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: to you by your friends at DraftKings. I am actually 6 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: headed to a DraftKings NBA Cup party tonight here in 7 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: Las Vegas, so I'm taping this before the Creighton Blue 8 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: Jay game is over against Alabama. Actually that game hasn't 9 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: even tipped off yet, but what we do know is 10 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: that we've gone one in one. Army Navy flew over, 11 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:47,480 Speaker 1: Navy almost got there by themselves, and then UCLA Arizona 12 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: just didn't score for the last nine minutes of that game. 13 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 1: They didn't score at all. I mean, it was sort 14 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: of pacing towards the under, but that obviously killed the 15 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: over one forty seven bets, so that missed, and now 16 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: we're left with the Cryton blame on the road at 17 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: Alabama for us to have a winning day or losing day. 18 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: So the day hinges on that which I don't know, 19 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: and I won't know till later on tonight, whether we 20 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 1: had a winning day or we had a losing day today. However, 21 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,559 Speaker 1: live stream Terrelle and I have you for an hour 22 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: or so starting at nine o'clock am Pacific noon Eastern, 23 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: taking you up to kick off of the early games 24 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 1: here today on the Betting Pros Week fifteen live stream. 25 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: Hope to see all you guys there on the Betting 26 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,040 Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel. Join us. We'll go through every single 27 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: game on Sunday, give you picks, plays and thoughts and 28 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: prop bets and more. All coming at you on the 29 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel for the week fifteen live stream 30 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 1: with myself and myself Andrelle Furman coming at you guys 31 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: here on a Sunday. All right, So for today, I've 32 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: got one side, two totals, and one teaser. I don't 33 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: know how heavy I'll be in the prop market, I 34 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: gotta be honest, but I may have a long teaser. 35 00:01:56,120 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: This is a very teaserrific Sunday, so I'll probably have 36 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: only two prop bets and I'll add an official Wong 37 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:09,239 Speaker 1: teaser during the live stream coming up here today, so 38 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,119 Speaker 1: tune in for that. It's late late in the year, 39 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: teachers could be somewhat profitable, so we're going to jump 40 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 1: in on jumping with that. So let's grab a hold 41 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 1: of five and a half six units today. It's a 42 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,519 Speaker 1: little heavier than I like to get into, but it's 43 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: one of our last regular season Sundays, so let's have 44 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: some fun with it. Before we do that, let's tell 45 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: you about our friends at DraftKings and the Pick six 46 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 1: new players. You play five dollars, you get fifty dollars instantly, 47 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 1: and Pick six credits with the promo code Juice at 48 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: sign up gambling problem called one and hundred. Gambler help 49 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: is available for a problem gambling called eight eight eight 50 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG 51 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 1: dot org in Connecticut eighteen plus and most eligible jurisdictions, 52 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,119 Speaker 1: but other age and eligibility restrictions may apply. Ballot only 53 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: at jurisdictions where Draft Kings Pick six operates. Pick six 54 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,519 Speaker 1: not available everywhere, including not limited to New York and California, Ontario, 55 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: void where prohibited four terms. Go to picksigs dot DraftKings 56 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,799 Speaker 1: dot com slash promos. All right, let's start with the 57 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 1: bucks on the road at the La Chargers. This is 58 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 1: an interesting situation to see how this is all going 59 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 1: to go down because Baker Mayfield is tremendous as a dog, 60 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:30,239 Speaker 1: tremendous with the Bucks. He's been way better with the Bucks. 61 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 1: He's twenty and twelve ats. That's only behind Bonis and 62 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 1: Jared Goff with their current teams against the number Bonix 63 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: on the road since the LASTI start of last year, 64 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: Bonix is twelve and four ats on the road. All 65 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: with the Bucks, he's sixteen and oh if you were 66 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: teasing this, by the way, in a six point teaser, 67 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: so maybe you want to tease it. Tease him up 68 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: plus three to plus nine high Wong teaser. Okay, this 69 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 1: thing goes below three. Guess what we're doing. This is 70 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: one of the Wong teaser options for the Bucks and 71 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: the Chargers in Bakers three of the last four games 72 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: on the road against the spread, he scored more than 73 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: twenty points. And he's way better on the road than 74 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,119 Speaker 1: he's at home. Just the numbers just are absolutely obvious 75 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 1: that Baker Mayfield plays better on the road. For whatever reason. 76 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 1: They beat Carolina by three. That didn't cover in that game, 77 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: but they won. They beat the Giants by twenty three, 78 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:29,239 Speaker 1: laying six. They covered against the KSE Chiefs. They beat 79 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: New Orleans by twenty four in covered. They didn't cover 80 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: against Atlanta. That was the third of October. It's a 81 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 1: long time ago. Against Detroit, they went to Detroit and 82 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: beat them. The only team to do that went to 83 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: the Lions and beat them in week two. We were 84 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: on them in that game. Baker Mayfield and the Bucks 85 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 1: that are eight and five overall with their six and 86 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 1: three ats against the NFC, four and two on the 87 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: road this year, but they're hot away from home now. 88 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: The Chargers are nine and four against the number this season. 89 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 1: They're four and two against the number at home, seven 90 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:02,919 Speaker 1: and three over your last ten games. Last two games 91 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: on the road, they cover them both against Atlanta and 92 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: against Kansas City. But I can't get away from this 93 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: trend with Baker Mayfield. I just I like Baker a lot. 94 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: I mean Baker as a member of the Bucks. When 95 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,359 Speaker 1: he's facing defenses that are allowing seventeen points or less, 96 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 1: he's three and oh against the spread. The three point 97 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: dogs give me the three. This number probably goes below three, 98 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: and when it does, it's a long teaser option and 99 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: we'll go from two and a half up to eight 100 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 1: and a half. This is a very interesting leg. We'll 101 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: have probably two bets on this game with Baker Mayfield 102 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: and the Bucks, but for this one, it's plus three 103 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: Tampa plus three for one point one units. Bet number two. 104 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 1: Let's go to Buffalo and Detroit. Everyone's thinking points points, points, 105 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: points points right. Well, when the line is this high 106 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 1: and it's fifty four and a half, it's a point 107 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: below the Bills and Cheeps back in October of twenty two, 108 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: and that was a fifty five and a half between 109 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: those two teams. Since two thousand and nine, when totals 110 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 1: are approaching fifty five, is is fifty four and a half. 111 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: The under is twenty three and ten. What am I 112 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: doing with this game? I'm going under? I don't this 113 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: is we may go right up against it. I mean 114 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: we're talking about twenty four. We're talking about like, you know, 115 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: right up the twenty eight to twenty four type right 116 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: like right there, fifty two fifty three. But at fifty 117 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 1: four and a half, this is just basically just a 118 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: system play the highest total on the board, two teams 119 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: playing for you know, they're calling it a preview with 120 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, but who knows, maybe it is, maybe 121 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 1: it isn't. The Bills with Josh Allen have not been 122 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 1: great against the number as a dog. In fact, Josh 123 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 1: Allen has been not good at all. When the bills 124 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 1: are off of a loss and Josh Allen's a dog, 125 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: He's five and six straight up and five and six 126 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 1: against the number. They're off of a loss and they're 127 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: a dog here on the road against Detroit, back to 128 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 1: back road games as well. Not great for Josh Allen. 129 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: He's been great against the NFC, but lost to the 130 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: Rams last week. He's never lost consecutive games outright to 131 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: NFC opponents, so the Rams and now here are the Lions. 132 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: We'll see if that continues. But he's seventeen to twelve 133 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: and one against the number here against the NFC. Let's 134 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: see what they look like here today. But I think 135 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: this number is too high. We'll go under under fifty 136 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: four and a half for the Bills and the Lions 137 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: more in that game. In a second to Sunday Night, 138 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: we go Green Bay on the road favored against Geno 139 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. Sunday Night unders. Since in 140 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, thirty nine and nineteen to the under, 141 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: that's nearly seventy percent of the time to the under 142 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: the regular season thirty six and fourteen. That includes a 143 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: ridiculous mark where you look at these teams ten and 144 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: four to the under this season, ten and four we 145 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: bet at last week with the Niners. We're betting it 146 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: this week for the Green Bay Packers. In the Seattle Seahawks, 147 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: we're going under. These teams are fighting for position, they're 148 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: both fighting in their divisions. They're trying to make some 149 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: nudes of noise. Matt Lafleur is fourteen and eleven with 150 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: extra prep time against the number over the last twenty years. 151 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 1: That's the fourth best mark of coaches, ninety nine of 152 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: them in the NFL. When the floor is at home, 153 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: he's not eleven and four, but on the road just 154 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: three and seven ATS. It's not great. Three and seven ATS. 155 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: The NFC North is now twenty ninety nine straight up 156 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: against other division. That's incredible. That's the second best mark 157 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: for the full full season by any division since the 158 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: nineteen nineties. Nineteen ninety the twenty thirteen NFC West were 159 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: the best in that same timeframe. Packers can win this game, 160 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:56,079 Speaker 1: but I think this is a dead under game. I 161 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: think this is going to be low scoring. I think 162 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 1: defenses rule. Gino. Smith has not played great straight up 163 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: at night games, but nine and five ats with Seattle 164 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,960 Speaker 1: and the Jets been an underdog a lot in primetime. 165 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: He's two and ten straight up as a primetime underdog. 166 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 1: That's not great, but keep the game close. Lose by three, 167 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: he wouldn't cover, but under most likely comes in. We're 168 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,079 Speaker 1: gonna play the under here in this game between these 169 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 1: two teams are going under forty six, So it's Bucks 170 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: plus three, Buffalo Detroit under fifty four and a half, 171 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: Green Bay in Seattle under forty six, and the teaser. 172 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 1: I'm taking both dogs in both unders under in dogs 173 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,839 Speaker 1: Green Bay against the Lions tease up to plus eight 174 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: and a half and Seattle at home tease from two 175 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:44,839 Speaker 1: and a half up to eight and a half. We're 176 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: gonna cross three, We're gonna cross seven. We're gonna create 177 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 1: our own long teaser here. Even though the Buffalo Detroit 178 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: game is not qualified because the total is fifty four 179 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: and a half, it doesn't qualify forty nine and lower. 180 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 1: That's what qualifies for a long teaser. But I'm gonna 181 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: pull the bills up because I think that's a back 182 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,439 Speaker 1: and forth battle that's a three to four point win 183 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: for either Buffalo or Detroit. I think either side of 184 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: a teaser here will come. In Seattle, I think they'll 185 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:09,559 Speaker 1: stay close. In fact, I think they'll win the game 186 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 1: outright against green Bay. They're desperate, they've got to keep pace. 187 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 1: They can't be They're in a dogfight. Green Bay most 188 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: likely is gonna win a wild card, if not win 189 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: the division. But Detroit's gonna be tough for them to catch. 190 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 1: So I think green Bay's got a little less urgency 191 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: and they're on the road against Seattle in primetime, and 192 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 1: that twelfth man I think is a big factor in 193 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: this game for the Seahawks. So I'm gonna to go 194 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 1: Bills plus eight and a half Seattle plus eight and 195 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 1: a half for a one point two unit teaser. All right, 196 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 1: So a couple of player props in a long teaser. 197 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 1: We'll come at you guys coming up on the live 198 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: stream starting at New n Eastern time, nine Pacific with 199 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: myself and Terrell Furman. I'm the Betting Pros YouTube channel. 200 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: Hope see all you guys there as we'll break down 201 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 1: these games. But once again, Bucks plus three Buffalo Detroit 202 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 1: under fifty four and a half, green Bay Seattle under 203 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: forty six, and the teaser is Bills Seattle, both at 204 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: plus eight and a half for one point two units. 205 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 1: My name is Matt Parolf because all socials at Sports 206 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 1: Talk Matt every morning. It is the daily news podcast 207 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings.