WEBVTT - Master the Market: Using Economic Indicators for an Edge & Decoding the Impact of Deflation

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:11.840
<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:15.840
<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

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<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

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<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:31.680
<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:34.960
<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

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<v Speaker 1>are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly

0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:43.000
<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will

0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:46.680
<v Speaker 1>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:50.120
<v Speaker 1>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

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<v Speaker 1>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

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<v Speaker 1>border and families will be protected.

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<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.

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<v Speaker 3>What is an economic indicator that you look at to

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<v Speaker 3>give you a hedge in the market.

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<v Speaker 4>Ah, that is a good one. I look at M

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<v Speaker 4>two money supply.

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<v Speaker 5>Ooh, so money supply hasn't talked about enough, but it

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<v Speaker 5>shows you, like the flows of actually the actual money

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<v Speaker 5>in the market in different sectors. So when I saw

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<v Speaker 5>we had a dramatic zip around October November, I was like, okay,

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<v Speaker 5>maybe spending this getting a little bit softly. We got

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<v Speaker 5>to be careful not to put so much capital into

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<v Speaker 5>the market. And as this went up, it shows that

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<v Speaker 5>the market is stead of going back up and there's

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<v Speaker 5>a lot more safety. So like when you have technical

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<v Speaker 5>indicators like there's two hundred day moving average seventy two,

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<v Speaker 5>when you're looking at an economic indicator, you can see

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<v Speaker 5>the spending literally drop or go up. So in twenty nineteen,

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<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty, it was going up tremendously and everything was

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<v Speaker 5>on four fire, crypto housing, market stocks.

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<v Speaker 4>NFT's real estate.

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<v Speaker 5>But then as we had a halt, we saw that

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<v Speaker 5>the market saw the to collapse as So that's the

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<v Speaker 5>economic indicator that I'd like to use to get a

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<v Speaker 5>great gauge on the market.

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<v Speaker 4>That's a good one. I always thinking about the technical ones.

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<v Speaker 6>For the average person who's listening, I could begin moving

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<v Speaker 6>averages are good, Yeah, new highs, new lows. What do

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<v Speaker 6>you think about CPI? I know every time you watch,

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<v Speaker 6>you watch CNBC, you watch any these business shows. They

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<v Speaker 6>talk about the importance of CPI to consumer price index,

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<v Speaker 6>how much we're spending, how much it costs for the

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<v Speaker 6>things that we're spending as an economic factor to see

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<v Speaker 6>where the money's going and inflation coming down.

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<v Speaker 5>It takes a lot of curs to do so because

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<v Speaker 5>there could be a lot of losses there. But trading

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<v Speaker 5>a CPR report, if you can get to move right,

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<v Speaker 5>you can make a ton of money. Shot to my gotpe,

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<v Speaker 5>like two weeks ago he called a move and I

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<v Speaker 5>want to tell I mean the dollar round, but I

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<v Speaker 5>mean he probably caught like one hundred and twenty percent

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<v Speaker 5>gainer in one day in less than like ten fifteen minutes.

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<v Speaker 5>So like once you know what the numbers are going

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<v Speaker 5>to be, you can plan in your favorite You can

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<v Speaker 5>definitely end up making a lot of money as a result.

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<v Speaker 5>Trading has considerable risk, absolutely, Police and social advisor always

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<v Speaker 5>say take three hundred practice trades before you go live to.

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<v Speaker 4>Mitigate any risk.

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<v Speaker 5>But that that report is very key for sure, non

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<v Speaker 5>far and payroll is another one that's important as.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, So.

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<v Speaker 3>Like percentage wise, how much is that in percent with

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<v Speaker 3>making a decision whether you should put money to the

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<v Speaker 3>stock market or not.

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<v Speaker 5>M two money supply Yeah, for me, probably thirty forty

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<v Speaker 5>percent because it's a bigger macro indicator. Likes that you

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<v Speaker 5>have smaller reports that are key. But what I'm looking at, like,

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<v Speaker 5>I would say top two would be like GDP growth

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<v Speaker 5>or decline, and then M two money supply. That's a

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<v Speaker 5>shorter term indicator to look at, but it definitely has

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<v Speaker 5>an impact on how the market is you. I would

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<v Speaker 5>challenge everyone to go look at like a ten year

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<v Speaker 5>chart of the M two money supply, see the ebbs

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<v Speaker 5>and flows, and see when M two money supply dips,

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<v Speaker 5>does the market dip with the in correlation? And when

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<v Speaker 5>it goes up does the market go up in correlation.

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<v Speaker 5>It's really fascinating to see those two pair together.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I mean, if I'm an investor, I'm a trader,

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<v Speaker 6>I'm just adding that tool to my belt. You have to, right, So,

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<v Speaker 6>if I didn't know about the M two money supply,

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<v Speaker 6>I add that to looking at the CPI I might

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<v Speaker 6>add that to looking at the unemployment data. Yep, so

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<v Speaker 6>I get a pretty good synopsis of what the economy

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<v Speaker 6>is looking like. Sometimes when you look at the charts

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<v Speaker 6>and you're looking at it doesn't give you a fear

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<v Speaker 6>synopsis of what's really happening.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, especially over the past month and two moving.

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<v Speaker 6>Right, we've seen like the top nine just push the market,

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<v Speaker 6>push the brcket, push the market.

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<v Speaker 4>It kind of feels like the whole market is moving,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's not.

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<v Speaker 5>It's kind of like Kyrie's lay package, like he can

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<v Speaker 5>finish with the left, finished with the right. Like the

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<v Speaker 5>more tools you have in your back. Of course, interest

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<v Speaker 5>rates are the most important. So if it's like creates

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<v Speaker 5>market is going to fall apart if they pause, that's

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<v Speaker 5>a sign for like a little bit of optimism. If

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<v Speaker 5>they cut rates too fast, that it'll lead to deflation.

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<v Speaker 5>But you want to have all these tools in your

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<v Speaker 5>arsenal to have the real information as banks, hedge funds

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<v Speaker 5>are looking at and countries and looking at to make

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<v Speaker 5>economic decisions.

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<v Speaker 6>And we saw a pause, not a freeze, but a pause.

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<v Speaker 6>We didn't even have a conversation, but that was your

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<v Speaker 6>thoughts though, like thank god, right, so it's like do

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<v Speaker 6>we slow down? And people looking at it from a

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<v Speaker 6>standpoint where it's like, okay, they're not going to raise

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<v Speaker 6>rates again, even though they said that another two quarters

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<v Speaker 6>might happen throughout the course of the year, but that

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<v Speaker 6>looks like it might be the ceiling for it.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I believe that rates again, But the pausing of

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<v Speaker 5>the interest rates hike was key because if they continue

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<v Speaker 5>to raise, I think it would drain all optimism out

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<v Speaker 5>of the market, because who actually eventually end up with

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<v Speaker 5>interest rates being like seven and a quarter percent?

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<v Speaker 4>It would be too high.

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<v Speaker 5>Like particularly even when I'm hearing some mortgage rates that

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<v Speaker 5>people have now compared to just two years ago, I'm like,

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<v Speaker 5>some people are paying double for the same house if

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<v Speaker 5>they have like a six fifty credit score. Now it

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<v Speaker 5>is insane. So, like, those interest rates are very key.

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<v Speaker 5>But I'm glad that they did pause. I can't reads

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<v Speaker 5>it's funny now Camron and makes it is it.

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<v Speaker 4>Is a different pause.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So let's talk about Elon Musk stated that deflation

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<v Speaker 3>is coming. What is deflation? And do you believe this

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<v Speaker 3>will happen soon? So we talked a lot about inflation.

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<v Speaker 3>So I you know, anybody that you probably can guess

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<v Speaker 3>what deflation is if you don't.

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:02.640
<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:07.000
<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with

0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:10.960
<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:14.840
<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:18.400
<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States

0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:23.240
<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:26.840
<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:30.120
<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:34.040
<v Speaker 1>are here illegally your next you will be fined nearly

0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:38.160
<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will

0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:41.840
<v Speaker 1>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:45.240
<v Speaker 1>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:50.360
<v Speaker 1>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump America's laws,

0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:52.520
<v Speaker 1>border and families.

0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:54.559
<v Speaker 2>Will be protected. Sponsored by the United States Department of

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<v Speaker 2>Homeland Security.

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<v Speaker 3>Know what deflation is is the opposite of inflation. But

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<v Speaker 3>yet talk about deflation and if you think that that's

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<v Speaker 3>coming soon.

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<v Speaker 5>You want to take it first, I'll lead. Yeah, Deflation

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<v Speaker 5>is just advanced price declines. F Inflations is when prices

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<v Speaker 5>are going up. Deflations are advanced price declines. You really

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<v Speaker 5>want everything to remain stable? Do I think it will come?

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<v Speaker 4>I don't.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm not sure yet, But I will say with all

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<v Speaker 5>the information that Elon has and how focused he's been,

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<v Speaker 5>I'm sure he is seeing something. And I think the

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<v Speaker 5>overall point that he's making And I never will want

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<v Speaker 5>a pile seat by any chance.

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<v Speaker 4>I would never want the job.

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<v Speaker 5>But I think what Elon is alluding to is like

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<v Speaker 5>interest rates got hyped up a little bit too fast,

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<v Speaker 5>and what if they start cutting we'll have the inverse

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<v Speaker 5>issue and when we have too much money supply, like

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<v Speaker 5>everything the value of everything went up too fast and

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<v Speaker 5>now they're trying to correct it. And like it's the

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<v Speaker 5>same thing when you're driving a car. If you correct

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<v Speaker 5>too quickly, that is what can ultimately cause an accident.

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<v Speaker 5>So I think we just need to have things stable.

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<v Speaker 5>Deflation maybe could come and maybe a year, but I

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<v Speaker 5>hope it doesn't.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, this is the when we talk about having a

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<v Speaker 4>soft landing.

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<v Speaker 6>Yes, this is exactly what they're talking about, right, Like

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<v Speaker 6>we figured out that zero percent interest rates don't work, right,

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<v Speaker 6>but you raise them and like you said, we could

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<v Speaker 6>get up to six percent at at a certain point,

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<v Speaker 6>but where do we want to land right, And this

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<v Speaker 6>talks that, hey, we need to get it down to

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<v Speaker 6>two percent. Well, if we're at six, how do we

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<v Speaker 6>get there safely? How do we safely get down to two?

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<v Speaker 6>And so it becomes a fine balance. And again it

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<v Speaker 6>sounds crazy, but like people are going to have to

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<v Speaker 6>lose jobs, right because you got to have the unemployment

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<v Speaker 6>rate go up, which is like for the average person,

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<v Speaker 6>it's going to affect you, it is, right, And so

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<v Speaker 6>that's why you try to make this as soft as

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<v Speaker 6>possible quote unquote the soft landing, so that it's a

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<v Speaker 6>steady process. It's stabilized to a point where it's like, right,

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<v Speaker 6>this isn't a harsh effect. Right, We're just not going

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<v Speaker 6>to turn this thing upside down palls, but we're going

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<v Speaker 6>to figure out a way to make sure that the

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<v Speaker 6>economy stays stable. Right, people still can be employed, and

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<v Speaker 6>it doesn't go back to all right, well we raised it,

0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:02.640
<v Speaker 6>we've got it lowered, this isn't working.

0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:03.640
<v Speaker 4>We got to hike him again.

0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:05.920
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, And I think it's really tough to have a

0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:08.760
<v Speaker 5>soft landing with our transparency, Like they've been clear on

0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:10.720
<v Speaker 5>what they want to do, but it doesn't seem confident

0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:12.560
<v Speaker 5>in any of the decisions they want to make. Like

0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:14.360
<v Speaker 5>one week it feels like we're going to raise rates

0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:17.400
<v Speaker 5>for the next two years. Then the pushback isn't positive,

0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:19.839
<v Speaker 5>and then they change tune a little bit. I think

0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:22.200
<v Speaker 5>if they just honestly said, hey, here's what the plan is.

0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.280
<v Speaker 5>We'll have rough eighteen months or two years, but for

0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:27.160
<v Speaker 5>the next ten years it's will be better, I think

0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:30.920
<v Speaker 5>most business owners and governments could handle that. It's the

0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:34.760
<v Speaker 5>indecision that really leads to a lot of the Confederate part.

0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:36.920
<v Speaker 6>Of it was, you know, even in twenty twenty two,

0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:39.200
<v Speaker 6>when you know, we saw that their rates were going

0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:41.240
<v Speaker 6>to be raising throughout the next six to eight months,

0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:42.680
<v Speaker 6>it was like, this is going to stop in March,

0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:44.480
<v Speaker 6>and here we are in June and this and there

0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:48.280
<v Speaker 6>might be two more. I feel like the market doesn't believe. Yes,

0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:51.720
<v Speaker 6>I don't saying anymore. Right, there's not like that firm confidence,

0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:55.520
<v Speaker 6>like ah, he's saying it, but it alls did. Then

0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:58.400
<v Speaker 6>why not just you know, have the raid hike in June.

0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:00.480
<v Speaker 6>Why not have it in a few weeks here coming

0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:03.840
<v Speaker 6>in July. Why not just have it consistently rather than

0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:06.720
<v Speaker 6>pause it and say, all right, we're seeing the numbers

0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:09.400
<v Speaker 6>cool down to a pace that we like, all right,

0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:11.000
<v Speaker 6>but we still have an option, right. I think he's

0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:13.720
<v Speaker 6>just leaving it as a variable option just in the

0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:16.760
<v Speaker 6>event that the numbers start peeking back to a point

0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:18.960
<v Speaker 6>that is unsatisfactory to him. So it's like, all right,

0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:20.920
<v Speaker 6>we'll raise it because I told you I would, And

0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:21.360
<v Speaker 6>I don't.

0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:23.000
<v Speaker 5>Think he's doing a bad job. But I think we

0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:25.160
<v Speaker 5>all knowing being the leader, you have to have a

0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:27.480
<v Speaker 5>very clear and firm path on what you're going to

0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:30.160
<v Speaker 5>like blaze the trail. We've seen it with Alan Greenspan

0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.280
<v Speaker 5>a little bit with Bernek. I think we need that

0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:34.959
<v Speaker 5>from him, but I mean, it's one of the most

0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:39.960
<v Speaker 5>difficult jobs on earth to correct, and because ideally zero

0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 5>interest rate environment is great for the short term, but

0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:44.439
<v Speaker 5>it hurts us long term. And now he's in a

0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:47.880
<v Speaker 5>driver's seat, after all, this zuberance has been rushing around

0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:50.280
<v Speaker 5>for fifteen years, and now you have to be the

0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:52.280
<v Speaker 5>one to say, hey, no more fun, no more parties,

0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:54.320
<v Speaker 5>like we're on financial punishment right now.

0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:55.680
<v Speaker 4>That's a tough job to have.

0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:58.960
<v Speaker 6>So the interesting part is that as those rates start

0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.960
<v Speaker 6>to come down, you think which type of companies benefit

0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:02.520
<v Speaker 6>the most of that?

0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:08.640
<v Speaker 5>Tech for sure, right right, fintech, most finance companies that

0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.679
<v Speaker 5>were like running thin on margin, those will come back.

0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.440
<v Speaker 5>Maybe automotive will come back as a result, but who

0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:15.880
<v Speaker 5>knows if it would be short lived.

0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:17.400
<v Speaker 4>My first thought was the tech sector.

0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:19.920
<v Speaker 6>It's like, all right, the price to do business obviously

0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:22.760
<v Speaker 6>goes down, infrastructure goes down, logistics goes down.

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.360
<v Speaker 4>That helps it the economy.

0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.000
<v Speaker 6>Especially from the you know when we talk about what's

0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:29.880
<v Speaker 6>leading it tech and so those companies that we talk about,

0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:31.840
<v Speaker 6>those top nine that we continuously I know you say

0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:32.920
<v Speaker 6>Apple and Microsoft.

0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:35.360
<v Speaker 4>I mean that's a great benefit a small cap. Some

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:37.320
<v Speaker 4>of the ross RUSS two thousand will go because.

0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:45.160
<v Speaker 3>My graduates from my school being forced back drop b drop,

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:48.200
<v Speaker 3>Mike drop back drop drop.

0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:02.200
<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from guatem charged with raping a child

0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:06.000
<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:10.400
<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:14.360
<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:18.199
<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States

0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:26.640
<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:30.240
<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.520
<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:37.440
<v Speaker 1>are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly

0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:41.520
<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will

0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:45.200
<v Speaker 1>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:48.640
<v Speaker 1>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:53.760
<v Speaker 1>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.360
<v Speaker 1>border and families will be protected.

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:58.560
<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,