Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
Speaker 3: What is an economic indicator that you look at to
Speaker 3: give you a hedge in the market.
Speaker 4: Ah, that is a good one. I look at M
Speaker 4: two money supply.
Speaker 5: Ooh, so money supply hasn't talked about enough, but it
Speaker 5: shows you, like the flows of actually the actual money
Speaker 5: in the market in different sectors. So when I saw
Speaker 5: we had a dramatic zip around October November, I was like, okay,
Speaker 5: maybe spending this getting a little bit softly. We got
Speaker 5: to be careful not to put so much capital into
Speaker 5: the market. And as this went up, it shows that
Speaker 5: the market is stead of going back up and there's
Speaker 5: a lot more safety. So like when you have technical
Speaker 5: indicators like there's two hundred day moving average seventy two,
Speaker 5: when you're looking at an economic indicator, you can see
Speaker 5: the spending literally drop or go up. So in twenty nineteen,
Speaker 5: twenty twenty, it was going up tremendously and everything was
Speaker 5: on four fire, crypto housing, market stocks.
Speaker 4: NFT's real estate.
Speaker 5: But then as we had a halt, we saw that
Speaker 5: the market saw the to collapse as So that's the
Speaker 5: economic indicator that I'd like to use to get a
Speaker 5: great gauge on the market.
Speaker 4: That's a good one. I always thinking about the technical ones.
Speaker 6: For the average person who's listening, I could begin moving
Speaker 6: averages are good, Yeah, new highs, new lows. What do
Speaker 6: you think about CPI? I know every time you watch,
Speaker 6: you watch CNBC, you watch any these business shows. They
Speaker 6: talk about the importance of CPI to consumer price index,
Speaker 6: how much we're spending, how much it costs for the
Speaker 6: things that we're spending as an economic factor to see
Speaker 6: where the money's going and inflation coming down.
Speaker 5: It takes a lot of curs to do so because
Speaker 5: there could be a lot of losses there. But trading
Speaker 5: a CPR report, if you can get to move right,
Speaker 5: you can make a ton of money. Shot to my gotpe,
Speaker 5: like two weeks ago he called a move and I
Speaker 5: want to tell I mean the dollar round, but I
Speaker 5: mean he probably caught like one hundred and twenty percent
Speaker 5: gainer in one day in less than like ten fifteen minutes.
Speaker 5: So like once you know what the numbers are going
Speaker 5: to be, you can plan in your favorite You can
Speaker 5: definitely end up making a lot of money as a result.
Speaker 5: Trading has considerable risk, absolutely, Police and social advisor always
Speaker 5: say take three hundred practice trades before you go live to.
Speaker 4: Mitigate any risk.
Speaker 5: But that that report is very key for sure, non
Speaker 5: far and payroll is another one that's important as.
Speaker 4: Well, So.
Speaker 3: Like percentage wise, how much is that in percent with
Speaker 3: making a decision whether you should put money to the
Speaker 3: stock market or not.
Speaker 5: M two money supply Yeah, for me, probably thirty forty
Speaker 5: percent because it's a bigger macro indicator. Likes that you
Speaker 5: have smaller reports that are key. But what I'm looking at, like,
Speaker 5: I would say top two would be like GDP growth
Speaker 5: or decline, and then M two money supply. That's a
Speaker 5: shorter term indicator to look at, but it definitely has
Speaker 5: an impact on how the market is you. I would
Speaker 5: challenge everyone to go look at like a ten year
Speaker 5: chart of the M two money supply, see the ebbs
Speaker 5: and flows, and see when M two money supply dips,
Speaker 5: does the market dip with the in correlation? And when
Speaker 5: it goes up does the market go up in correlation.
Speaker 5: It's really fascinating to see those two pair together.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, if I'm an investor, I'm a trader,
Speaker 6: I'm just adding that tool to my belt. You have to, right, So,
Speaker 6: if I didn't know about the M two money supply,
Speaker 6: I add that to looking at the CPI I might
Speaker 6: add that to looking at the unemployment data. Yep, so
Speaker 6: I get a pretty good synopsis of what the economy
Speaker 6: is looking like. Sometimes when you look at the charts
Speaker 6: and you're looking at it doesn't give you a fear
Speaker 6: synopsis of what's really happening.
Speaker 4: Right, especially over the past month and two moving.
Speaker 6: Right, we've seen like the top nine just push the market,
Speaker 6: push the brcket, push the market.
Speaker 4: It kind of feels like the whole market is moving,
Speaker 4: but it's not.
Speaker 5: It's kind of like Kyrie's lay package, like he can
Speaker 5: finish with the left, finished with the right. Like the
Speaker 5: more tools you have in your back. Of course, interest
Speaker 5: rates are the most important. So if it's like creates
Speaker 5: market is going to fall apart if they pause, that's
Speaker 5: a sign for like a little bit of optimism. If
Speaker 5: they cut rates too fast, that it'll lead to deflation.
Speaker 5: But you want to have all these tools in your
Speaker 5: arsenal to have the real information as banks, hedge funds
Speaker 5: are looking at and countries and looking at to make
Speaker 5: economic decisions.
Speaker 6: And we saw a pause, not a freeze, but a pause.
Speaker 6: We didn't even have a conversation, but that was your
Speaker 6: thoughts though, like thank god, right, so it's like do
Speaker 6: we slow down? And people looking at it from a
Speaker 6: standpoint where it's like, okay, they're not going to raise
Speaker 6: rates again, even though they said that another two quarters
Speaker 6: might happen throughout the course of the year, but that
Speaker 6: looks like it might be the ceiling for it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I believe that rates again, But the pausing of
Speaker 5: the interest rates hike was key because if they continue
Speaker 5: to raise, I think it would drain all optimism out
Speaker 5: of the market, because who actually eventually end up with
Speaker 5: interest rates being like seven and a quarter percent?
Speaker 4: It would be too high.
Speaker 5: Like particularly even when I'm hearing some mortgage rates that
Speaker 5: people have now compared to just two years ago, I'm like,
Speaker 5: some people are paying double for the same house if
Speaker 5: they have like a six fifty credit score. Now it
Speaker 5: is insane. So, like, those interest rates are very key.
Speaker 5: But I'm glad that they did pause. I can't reads
Speaker 5: it's funny now Camron and makes it is it.
Speaker 4: Is a different pause.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So let's talk about Elon Musk stated that deflation
Speaker 3: is coming. What is deflation? And do you believe this
Speaker 3: will happen soon? So we talked a lot about inflation.
Speaker 3: So I you know, anybody that you probably can guess
Speaker 3: what deflation is if you don't.
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Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with
Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States
Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
Speaker 1: are here illegally your next you will be fined nearly
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump America's laws,
Speaker 1: border and families.
Speaker 2: Will be protected. Sponsored by the United States Department of
Speaker 2: Homeland Security.
Speaker 3: Know what deflation is is the opposite of inflation. But
Speaker 3: yet talk about deflation and if you think that that's
Speaker 3: coming soon.
Speaker 5: You want to take it first, I'll lead. Yeah, Deflation
Speaker 5: is just advanced price declines. F Inflations is when prices
Speaker 5: are going up. Deflations are advanced price declines. You really
Speaker 5: want everything to remain stable? Do I think it will come?
Speaker 4: I don't.
Speaker 5: I'm not sure yet, But I will say with all
Speaker 5: the information that Elon has and how focused he's been,
Speaker 5: I'm sure he is seeing something. And I think the
Speaker 5: overall point that he's making And I never will want
Speaker 5: a pile seat by any chance.
Speaker 4: I would never want the job.
Speaker 5: But I think what Elon is alluding to is like
Speaker 5: interest rates got hyped up a little bit too fast,
Speaker 5: and what if they start cutting we'll have the inverse
Speaker 5: issue and when we have too much money supply, like
Speaker 5: everything the value of everything went up too fast and
Speaker 5: now they're trying to correct it. And like it's the
Speaker 5: same thing when you're driving a car. If you correct
Speaker 5: too quickly, that is what can ultimately cause an accident.
Speaker 5: So I think we just need to have things stable.
Speaker 5: Deflation maybe could come and maybe a year, but I
Speaker 5: hope it doesn't.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the when we talk about having a
Speaker 4: soft landing.
Speaker 6: Yes, this is exactly what they're talking about, right, Like
Speaker 6: we figured out that zero percent interest rates don't work, right,
Speaker 6: but you raise them and like you said, we could
Speaker 6: get up to six percent at at a certain point,
Speaker 6: but where do we want to land right, And this
Speaker 6: talks that, hey, we need to get it down to
Speaker 6: two percent. Well, if we're at six, how do we
Speaker 6: get there safely? How do we safely get down to two?
Speaker 6: And so it becomes a fine balance. And again it
Speaker 6: sounds crazy, but like people are going to have to
Speaker 6: lose jobs, right because you got to have the unemployment
Speaker 6: rate go up, which is like for the average person,
Speaker 6: it's going to affect you, it is, right, And so
Speaker 6: that's why you try to make this as soft as
Speaker 6: possible quote unquote the soft landing, so that it's a
Speaker 6: steady process. It's stabilized to a point where it's like, right,
Speaker 6: this isn't a harsh effect. Right, We're just not going
Speaker 6: to turn this thing upside down palls, but we're going
Speaker 6: to figure out a way to make sure that the
Speaker 6: economy stays stable. Right, people still can be employed, and
Speaker 6: it doesn't go back to all right, well we raised it,
Speaker 6: we've got it lowered, this isn't working.
Speaker 4: We got to hike him again.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think it's really tough to have a
Speaker 5: soft landing with our transparency, Like they've been clear on
Speaker 5: what they want to do, but it doesn't seem confident
Speaker 5: in any of the decisions they want to make. Like
Speaker 5: one week it feels like we're going to raise rates
Speaker 5: for the next two years. Then the pushback isn't positive,
Speaker 5: and then they change tune a little bit. I think
Speaker 5: if they just honestly said, hey, here's what the plan is.
Speaker 5: We'll have rough eighteen months or two years, but for
Speaker 5: the next ten years it's will be better, I think
Speaker 5: most business owners and governments could handle that. It's the
Speaker 5: indecision that really leads to a lot of the Confederate part.
Speaker 6: Of it was, you know, even in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 6: when you know, we saw that their rates were going
Speaker 6: to be raising throughout the next six to eight months,
Speaker 6: it was like, this is going to stop in March,
Speaker 6: and here we are in June and this and there
Speaker 6: might be two more. I feel like the market doesn't believe. Yes,
Speaker 6: I don't saying anymore. Right, there's not like that firm confidence,
Speaker 6: like ah, he's saying it, but it alls did. Then
Speaker 6: why not just you know, have the raid hike in June.
Speaker 6: Why not have it in a few weeks here coming
Speaker 6: in July. Why not just have it consistently rather than
Speaker 6: pause it and say, all right, we're seeing the numbers
Speaker 6: cool down to a pace that we like, all right,
Speaker 6: but we still have an option, right. I think he's
Speaker 6: just leaving it as a variable option just in the
Speaker 6: event that the numbers start peeking back to a point
Speaker 6: that is unsatisfactory to him. So it's like, all right,
Speaker 6: we'll raise it because I told you I would, And
Speaker 6: I don't.
Speaker 5: Think he's doing a bad job. But I think we
Speaker 5: all knowing being the leader, you have to have a
Speaker 5: very clear and firm path on what you're going to
Speaker 5: like blaze the trail. We've seen it with Alan Greenspan
Speaker 5: a little bit with Bernek. I think we need that
Speaker 5: from him, but I mean, it's one of the most
Speaker 5: difficult jobs on earth to correct, and because ideally zero
Speaker 5: interest rate environment is great for the short term, but
Speaker 5: it hurts us long term. And now he's in a
Speaker 5: driver's seat, after all, this zuberance has been rushing around
Speaker 5: for fifteen years, and now you have to be the
Speaker 5: one to say, hey, no more fun, no more parties,
Speaker 5: like we're on financial punishment right now.
Speaker 4: That's a tough job to have.
Speaker 6: So the interesting part is that as those rates start
Speaker 6: to come down, you think which type of companies benefit
Speaker 6: the most of that?
Speaker 5: Tech for sure, right right, fintech, most finance companies that
Speaker 5: were like running thin on margin, those will come back.
Speaker 5: Maybe automotive will come back as a result, but who
Speaker 5: knows if it would be short lived.
Speaker 4: My first thought was the tech sector.
Speaker 6: It's like, all right, the price to do business obviously
Speaker 6: goes down, infrastructure goes down, logistics goes down.
Speaker 4: That helps it the economy.
Speaker 6: Especially from the you know when we talk about what's
Speaker 6: leading it tech and so those companies that we talk about,
Speaker 6: those top nine that we continuously I know you say
Speaker 6: Apple and Microsoft.
Speaker 4: I mean that's a great benefit a small cap. Some
Speaker 4: of the ross RUSS two thousand will go because.
Speaker 3: My graduates from my school being forced back drop b drop,
Speaker 3: Mike drop back drop drop.
Speaker 1: An illegal alien from guatem charged with raping a child
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will
Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,