WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Rich Clarida & Kona Haque

0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:14.120
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:16.920
<v Speaker 2>Single best idea out an Apple podcast. Thank you Apple

0:00:16.960 --> 0:00:21.000
<v Speaker 2>for inventing podcasts. It's a boom industry. Our theory is

0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.360
<v Speaker 2>not like when we started this decades ago, which was

0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:26.799
<v Speaker 2>really exciting to do that with Apple at the time.

0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:29.800
<v Speaker 2>But to give you something short like six minutes, and

0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:31.520
<v Speaker 2>today I may even make it a little shorter. I'm

0:00:31.520 --> 0:00:34.040
<v Speaker 2>fighting a plague. You can hear it throughout the tapes

0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:36.920
<v Speaker 2>that we've got today. Thanks to the team, particularly Paul

0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:39.640
<v Speaker 2>Sweeney for putting up with it. But you know, like

0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:43.040
<v Speaker 2>everybody else, I'm medicated. Thank you to David Gera for

0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.600
<v Speaker 2>tea from Brooklyn is different. It was sacred or some

0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:51.320
<v Speaker 2>of the sacred vibe apothecary. It's very you know, I

0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:54.040
<v Speaker 2>don't know what was in it. Maybe been some you know,

0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:57.320
<v Speaker 2>beverage of my choice in it. Anyways, thank you David

0:00:57.360 --> 0:01:00.960
<v Speaker 2>Gerr for bringing in tea today. A joy to speak

0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:06.560
<v Speaker 2>to Richard Clarita. He was the dean of Columbia Economics.

0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:09.960
<v Speaker 2>He brought Joe Stiglitz to Colombia. Just to give you

0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:13.760
<v Speaker 2>an idea of what really matters in bringing in faculty.

0:01:13.800 --> 0:01:16.800
<v Speaker 2>It's where a Dean could say, hey, come in and

0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:20.880
<v Speaker 2>was vice chairman of the FED. He's this legit academic

0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:25.559
<v Speaker 2>with his work on DSGE. But we talked to Richard

0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:31.319
<v Speaker 2>Clarina now at PIMCO today about the path forward for

0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:34.280
<v Speaker 2>the FED theory underlying let's listen.

0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:37.520
<v Speaker 3>My sense, obviously from public comments of not only the

0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:40.280
<v Speaker 3>Chair but the committee is that they've understood Tom for

0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:44.720
<v Speaker 3>some time that the shock was sufficiently unusual and substantial

0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:48.040
<v Speaker 3>that they need they can, and they are relying less

0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:51.920
<v Speaker 3>on models and more on the way the data evolves.

0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:54.040
<v Speaker 3>You know, Tom, on one hand, you know, the models

0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:56.400
<v Speaker 3>were telling him that to get inflation down from five

0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:58.840
<v Speaker 3>and a half to two points something, they need to

0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:01.680
<v Speaker 3>have a big increase in the unemployment rate. And both

0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:05.160
<v Speaker 3>Governor Waller, Serpell and others said, look, the economy may

0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:06.080
<v Speaker 3>be different this time.

0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:06.800
<v Speaker 2>We don't have to.

0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.200
<v Speaker 3>Assume a big cratering in the labor market.

0:02:09.600 --> 0:02:12.560
<v Speaker 2>Richard Clarita and the FED out of the pandemic certainly

0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:16.639
<v Speaker 2>a historic moment. I really can't say enough about the

0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:20.079
<v Speaker 2>coverage of our team, Scottlandman leading our coverage in Washington

0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:25.760
<v Speaker 2>through this really historic period. Moving right along to what

0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:30.400
<v Speaker 2>we do, which is equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and being

0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:32.600
<v Speaker 2>in New York and not in London. John Ferrell tells

0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:35.280
<v Speaker 2>me this all the time. London's really where the commodities are.

0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:40.280
<v Speaker 2>JOHNA happens to be correct. But with that said, out

0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:44.120
<v Speaker 2>of London are all sorts of ability, not just in

0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:47.600
<v Speaker 2>oil or you know a couple other commodities that matter,

0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:51.399
<v Speaker 2>but in what it's called the safts is the metals, copper, industrial,

0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:55.040
<v Speaker 2>gold and all that, but the sauce is a huge

0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:58.600
<v Speaker 2>part of the world. ConA Haik owns a high ground here.

0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:02.360
<v Speaker 2>She's with ed f and Man, which literally goes back,

0:03:02.760 --> 0:03:06.680
<v Speaker 2>I believe, to the American Revolutionary War. But ConA Haik

0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:11.240
<v Speaker 2>is encyclopedic on what's going on in the cocoa boom

0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:15.840
<v Speaker 2>and all that. And overlaying all of this, including in coffee,

0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:20.200
<v Speaker 2>is the drought. John Tucker today had a superb news

0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:23.800
<v Speaker 2>item us early in the day about the warm April,

0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:26.840
<v Speaker 2>the hot April, so many are feeling. I saw that

0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.320
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be ninety six today in Manila. Just

0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:33.040
<v Speaker 2>as one example. It's very hot in Vietnam as well.

0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:35.080
<v Speaker 2>Here's Coda Hak on coffee.

0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:38.120
<v Speaker 4>Coffee prices have risen sharply and they were thinking, oh,

0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:42.320
<v Speaker 4>is this the next cocoa and rightfully though again it's

0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:45.720
<v Speaker 4>fundamentals in the coffee supplied Amon situation is very tight.

0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:50.080
<v Speaker 4>We have Vietnam, which again heat dress and dryness has

0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:52.680
<v Speaker 4>caused a shortage of robusta, which is the stuff you

0:03:52.720 --> 0:03:57.560
<v Speaker 4>eat for US drink in espressos. So robusta coffee is

0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:01.280
<v Speaker 4>definitely tied in terms of supplied Amon fundamentals. Arabica is

0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:05.240
<v Speaker 4>produced in Brazil, but they also had, you know, a

0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:08.520
<v Speaker 4>couple of years of bad crops following by frost. You

0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:12.320
<v Speaker 4>don't get frost in Brazil. That's very abnormal. We've recovered

0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:14.120
<v Speaker 4>from them, but then you had a bout of droughts

0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:17.120
<v Speaker 4>and you've just not had perfect weather. And this is

0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:18.000
<v Speaker 4>the recurring theme.

0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:21.479
<v Speaker 2>Connor Hey of Ed and f Man, they're on coffee.

0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:25.440
<v Speaker 2>We're a really good conversation. Speaking of that conversation, just

0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:27.920
<v Speaker 2>out we have the full replay of the show two

0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:31.280
<v Speaker 2>hours and fifty six minutes. You'll see that two ish,

0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:35.080
<v Speaker 2>three ish in the afternoon Wall Street time. We've had

0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:37.520
<v Speaker 2>a huge request for this, particularly for those in the

0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:41.200
<v Speaker 2>Mountain in the Pacific time zones. But there's a replay

0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:45.880
<v Speaker 2>now of the entire three hour show, and look for that. Now,

0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.440
<v Speaker 2>where do you look Bloomberg Podcasts. It's just as simple

0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:52.360
<v Speaker 2>as that. It's a building site in the new world

0:04:52.560 --> 0:04:57.520
<v Speaker 2>of digital digital audio and media. We're building it out

0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:01.240
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Podcasts, and look there each every day on YouTube

0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:05.120
<v Speaker 2>for all of our different efforts. On Apple car play

0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:08.680
<v Speaker 2>as well and Android play, download the Bloomberg Business app.

0:05:08.720 --> 0:05:11.880
<v Speaker 2>To be clear, it is free to get Bloomberg on

0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:19.760
<v Speaker 2>your radio from New York. This is single best idea