WEBVTT - Navigating Tariffs, US-Russia Relations, Atlassian's F1 Partnership

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week Insight from the reporters and editors that bring you

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<v Speaker 1>America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and

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<v Speaker 1>tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Masser

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, we want to shift gears because one of

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<v Speaker 2>the things that has been.

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<v Speaker 3>You said, shift gears so helpful. I like that. We're

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<v Speaker 3>gonna explain why that makes sense.

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<v Speaker 2>So helpful is touching base with CEOs around the globe

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<v Speaker 2>with everything that's going on. At Lastian, it's the more

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<v Speaker 2>than eighty billion dollar market cap enterprise software company behind

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<v Speaker 2>a Gyra, Confluence, Trello, and more. The company is more

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<v Speaker 2>than three hundred thousand customers around the World's got a

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<v Speaker 2>great view when it comes to tech spending among businesses

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<v Speaker 2>both big and small. Company was founded co founded by

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<v Speaker 2>Mike cannon Brooks. He's also CEO the billionaire Invested Renewable Energy.

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<v Speaker 2>He also works to combat climate change, and he's joining

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<v Speaker 2>us right now to talk about a lot of what

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<v Speaker 2>is going on, as well as some news that he

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<v Speaker 2>had this week in the world of f one Racing Mike.

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<v Speaker 2>First of all, forgive there's a lot coming at us

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<v Speaker 2>right now, but we are so grateful to have you.

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<v Speaker 2>We want to get to the F one news, but

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<v Speaker 2>we also want to ask you about the macro environment.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you kind of figure out what to focus

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<v Speaker 2>on what not when things are coming certainly geopolitically, we

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<v Speaker 2>are talking a lot about tariffs and a terra for essentially,

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<v Speaker 2>how do you take it all in and how do

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<v Speaker 2>you assess today's business environment globally?

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<v Speaker 4>Sure, guys, thank you, thank you very much for having me.

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<v Speaker 5>Look, there's no doubt it's a busy world at the

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<v Speaker 5>moment and there's a lot going on. My strategy has

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<v Speaker 5>been almost ridiculously simple most of the time, which is

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<v Speaker 5>just to work out what the business needs. Normally, the

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<v Speaker 5>best way you can figure out what we should spend

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<v Speaker 5>our time on in a given day is to look

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<v Speaker 5>at your customers and go talk to them right any

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<v Speaker 5>and that doesn't mean it's simple. They are facing lots

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<v Speaker 5>of different global effects in parts of the world, and

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<v Speaker 5>so you know, we if we work out how we

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<v Speaker 5>can help them, that usually is our simplest way to

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<v Speaker 5>gain some focus in an otherwise highly confusing world when there's.

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<v Speaker 4>A lot going on.

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<v Speaker 3>To what extent, though, do you have to increase your

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<v Speaker 3>value to them because their margins get squeezed as the

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<v Speaker 3>result of tariffs, as the result of a potential trade war.

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<v Speaker 3>What do you have to do to prove to them

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<v Speaker 3>that you're worth spending money on.

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<v Speaker 6>Sure?

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<v Speaker 5>Look at last Even's products are all about collaboration and

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<v Speaker 5>efficiency for companies, right we help teams of people.

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<v Speaker 4>Our mission is to unleash the potential of every.

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<v Speaker 5>Team, has been for decades, and our job is to

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<v Speaker 5>make sure that we explain to customers how our software

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<v Speaker 5>can do that and have those customers adopt the software.

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<v Speaker 4>Whether they're running project, whether they're looking at their strategic.

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<v Speaker 5>Plans, whether they're building technology, whatever it is that they're doing.

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<v Speaker 5>We help them make their technology teams work better with

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<v Speaker 5>their business teams. And we have always been an incredibly

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<v Speaker 5>value conscious offering. You get an incredible amount of value

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<v Speaker 5>from Elastin for a very low price, and that helps

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<v Speaker 5>in tricky economic times. But fundamentally we have to justify

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<v Speaker 5>with the customers and have them demonstrate to themselves ideally

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<v Speaker 5>the value of our software and how it makes them

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<v Speaker 5>more efficient to work together. And that's where I think

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<v Speaker 5>we've kept a pretty clear north star for a long time.

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<v Speaker 5>And why we have, you know, three hundred thousand customers

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<v Speaker 5>and it's still growing strongly at the size we are today.

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<v Speaker 3>Well those three hundred customers, three hundred thousand customers, excuse me,

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<v Speaker 3>all over the world when you hear updates from your

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<v Speaker 3>global sales sporce, are you hearing from then about any

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<v Speaker 3>particular concern in different regions of the world that could

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<v Speaker 3>be affected by tariffs, that are seeing weakness for other reasons.

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<v Speaker 3>What's the read that you have on the globe from

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<v Speaker 3>your sales for us.

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<v Speaker 4>Look, there's always challenges in different parts of the world.

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<v Speaker 4>This is not new.

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<v Speaker 5>I think in any given small slice of time, we

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<v Speaker 5>see that we have very global companies, we have very

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<v Speaker 5>local companies in that three hundred thousand. Our customer base

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<v Speaker 5>has always spanned small businesses through to very very large businesses,

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<v Speaker 5>some of the largest companies in the world. In fact,

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<v Speaker 5>we have like eighty five percent of the Fortune five

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<v Speaker 5>hundred as customers. You have a lot of issues going

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<v Speaker 5>on for a lot of different companies. Our job is

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<v Speaker 5>to make those companies more efficient. They still have to

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<v Speaker 5>deal with those issues. They have to run projects and

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<v Speaker 5>collaborate and communicate with each other. We help them do that.

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<v Speaker 5>We always have, and so whatever issues they're dealing with,

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<v Speaker 5>whether it's an issue of growth, whether it's an issue

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<v Speaker 5>with Vitariff or a challenge Atlatians try to help their

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<v Speaker 5>teams deal with that issue more efficiently.

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<v Speaker 4>If we can't demonstrate their value, we're not going to

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<v Speaker 4>be around.

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<v Speaker 5>So again, just sticking to that north Star has been

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<v Speaker 5>a very simple principle for a long time.

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<v Speaker 4>Vote.

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<v Speaker 2>So, Mike, no, you're not seeing any signs of any

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<v Speaker 2>kind of slow down or pullback by some of your

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<v Speaker 2>customers as they kind of wait for the dust to settle.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we certainly feel like we're in it, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>as we have kicked off a new administration here and

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<v Speaker 2>every day are dissecting different headlines that come out of

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<v Speaker 2>the White House. But you know, there's geopolitical turbulence, as

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<v Speaker 2>you well know, around the world, and I think there's

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<v Speaker 2>you know, dust that needs to settle in different places.

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<v Speaker 2>So is there any signs of any hesitation that you're

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<v Speaker 2>seeing among customers or not yet?

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<v Speaker 4>Look round one of you.

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<v Speaker 5>We continue to see, you know, really good growth across

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<v Speaker 5>customer events and especially in the enterprise segment. So our

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<v Speaker 5>largest customers those organizations with you know, more than a

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<v Speaker 5>thousand people around the world. We have more than five

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<v Speaker 5>hundred customers that spend more than a million dollars a

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<v Speaker 5>year now with at Lassian, and that is our fastest

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<v Speaker 5>growing customer segment. So I'm sure that those businesses are

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<v Speaker 5>having to do with all of that dust in the

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<v Speaker 5>air as you talked about, But at the same time,

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<v Speaker 5>they have their own customers to deal with. They still

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<v Speaker 5>have their business to run, and whatever the problems are,

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<v Speaker 5>they have to do with it. And so our software

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<v Speaker 5>helps their teams deal with whatever it is that they

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<v Speaker 5>need to do, how they handle their customers, and also

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<v Speaker 5>how do they handle whatever is going on in whichever

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<v Speaker 5>part of the world. As long as we keep that

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<v Speaker 5>value ratio great for our customers. We invest very heavily

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<v Speaker 5>in R and D and continue to develop and build

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<v Speaker 5>our software every single day. We have a fantastic team.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm not sure focusing on all that sort of thing

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<v Speaker 5>is very helpful for us all for our customers. To

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<v Speaker 5>be honest, they have their own customers to deal with,

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<v Speaker 5>and I.

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<v Speaker 2>Should put out last month, you guys reported second quarter

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<v Speaker 2>results that beat expectations to raise your full your forecast,

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<v Speaker 2>and investors have definitely rewarded you big time. The ADRs

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<v Speaker 2>that trade in the United States are at more than

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<v Speaker 2>fifty percent TIM in the past year.

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<v Speaker 3>I just want to remind everybody we are waiting for

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<v Speaker 3>President Trump. He's making comments in the Oval Office, where

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<v Speaker 3>he's been speaking for the better part of close to

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<v Speaker 3>an hour at this point. We'll bring those comments to

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<v Speaker 3>you as soon as the tape playback starts. It is

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Business Week. That's Carol Master. I'm Tim Steneveek. We're

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<v Speaker 3>speaking with Mike cannon Brooks, the co founder and CEO

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<v Speaker 3>of at Lassian. Mike, I do want to talk a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit about different industries that you serve. We talk

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<v Speaker 3>a lot about AI. I know you guys are doing

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<v Speaker 3>a lot with AI as far as customers go, Customers

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<v Speaker 3>that are using your product, customers that are leaning into

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<v Speaker 3>AI right now. Are you seeing more growth on the

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<v Speaker 3>tech side of your business in terms of those types

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<v Speaker 3>of customers given what we're seeing come from the tech

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<v Speaker 3>community over the last couple of years.

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<v Speaker 4>Great question, I as a huge topic among our customer base.

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<v Speaker 4>From a Lastian's point of view, we certainly.

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<v Speaker 5>Believe all of the progress making and AI every week,

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<v Speaker 5>in every quarter at the moment is fantastic for our

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<v Speaker 5>ability to achieve our mission right. We can build better

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<v Speaker 5>and better products that more Taylor and our customized to

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<v Speaker 5>the world that our customers are trying to do. There's

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<v Speaker 5>no doubt our core customer base what we like to

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<v Speaker 5>call technology driven companies, So companies that believe like William's

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<v Speaker 5>Racing or like a financial services company, they both be

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<v Speaker 5>the same that believe technology is their source of competition.

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<v Speaker 5>It's the way that they are going to get an edge, survive,

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<v Speaker 5>or thrive in their industry. Any of those businesses are

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<v Speaker 5>deeply investing in AI in lots of different ways. They

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<v Speaker 5>are trying to work out how this technology makes them

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<v Speaker 5>more efficient, how it helps them to compete fundamentally.

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<v Speaker 4>At Lastian's role.

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<v Speaker 5>There is to invest very heavily, as we have done

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<v Speaker 5>in the R and D of actually bringing AI to

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<v Speaker 5>our customers. So we're a big believer that if we

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<v Speaker 5>don't ship software that people can use the rest of

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<v Speaker 5>it doesn't matter. It's all just kind of talk. So

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<v Speaker 5>our investment has been in taking those AI innovations and

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<v Speaker 5>developments every week, every month, incredibly rapidly, and getting them

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<v Speaker 5>to our customers in a form that they can use.

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<v Speaker 5>We have done that, and it's one of the things

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<v Speaker 5>it's one of the things that lasting Williams Rising teams

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<v Speaker 5>most excited about. It's one of the things that a

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<v Speaker 5>lot of coustomers are talking about, is how they can

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<v Speaker 5>make their businesses more efficient, especially as you mentioned in

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<v Speaker 5>the Current Times, which is a big challenge.

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<v Speaker 2>One last question about AI before we talk about some

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<v Speaker 2>of the news you guys had this week. Our Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Intelligence team, our in house group of analysts noting that

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<v Speaker 2>it may threaten your seat based sales model. They say

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<v Speaker 2>Deep seeks cost effective model of training lms can bolster

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<v Speaker 2>AI adoption, driving a shift of work to digital agents

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<v Speaker 2>from humans, and so they say that's a risk for

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<v Speaker 2>some of the enterprise software players with seat beat based

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<v Speaker 2>revenue models, including yourself and some others. So will it

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<v Speaker 2>could the deep Seek have an impact like that on

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<v Speaker 2>your business?

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<v Speaker 5>Look, we certainly deeply believe in the fact that agents

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<v Speaker 5>are going to make a huge difference to businesses around

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<v Speaker 5>the world. We're already seeing that that we're very much

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<v Speaker 5>on the leading edge of that technology. We shipped our

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<v Speaker 5>product Rovo a year and almost a year and a

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<v Speaker 5>half ago now and have continued to update it and

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<v Speaker 5>have now more than a million users waking up and

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<v Speaker 5>using LASSI and AI technologies, including all of our agents

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<v Speaker 5>every day.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the.

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<v Speaker 5>We take the position that AI fundamentally is about unleashing

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<v Speaker 5>some form of human creativity.

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<v Speaker 6>Right.

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<v Speaker 5>It lets people do more with less. It helps them

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<v Speaker 5>to be creative. It's a fantastical tool. That tool, there's

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<v Speaker 5>no doubt, makes people able to do more. You can

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<v Speaker 5>write more software, you can answer more emails, you can

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<v Speaker 5>do whatever it is that you want to do, and

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<v Speaker 5>you can do it.

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<v Speaker 4>More creatively and at a higher level.

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<v Speaker 5>The thing with most of the industries that we work in,

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<v Speaker 5>right we sell to knowledge workers around the world, people

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<v Speaker 5>that spend the day sitting at a laptop or behind

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<v Speaker 5>a computer and using fundamentally creativity to try to improve

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<v Speaker 5>whatever business they're working in. Those are usually not supply

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<v Speaker 5>limited by human creativity. If you take software engineering as

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<v Speaker 5>a field, if we made all software engineers in the

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<v Speaker 5>world twice as effective, the question is, would we have

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<v Speaker 5>half as many software engineers or would we build twice

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<v Speaker 5>as much software. I think we'd end up building twice

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<v Speaker 5>as much software, not the other way around, because we

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<v Speaker 5>don't have a shortage of ideas of what we would

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<v Speaker 5>like to build. In the world, most businesses don't get

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<v Speaker 5>everything they need to get done. All our agents are

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<v Speaker 5>doing is helping those businesses to achieve more, and they'll

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<v Speaker 5>all be competitive with each other as well, so there's

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<v Speaker 5>a natural are of conservation of profits there as well.

0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:44.199
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Mike, I don't have my glasses on, but your

0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.840
<v Speaker 2>hot I want to talk about, you know, some news

0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.440
<v Speaker 2>you had this week and this is your partnership with

0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:52.319
<v Speaker 2>Williams Racing the F one team.

0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:53.600
<v Speaker 7>I believe it.

0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:56.800
<v Speaker 8>Says that on your hat. Does it say that it does?

0:11:58.679 --> 0:11:59.680
<v Speaker 7>Forgot forgive me?

0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:01.920
<v Speaker 2>I said it all my glasses on and there's some

0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:04.520
<v Speaker 2>distance here as I look back at our feedback monitor.

0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:06.240
<v Speaker 7>Tell us about this.

0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:07.800
<v Speaker 2>Partnership and what you guys are going to be doing

0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:11.640
<v Speaker 2>and why you wanted to do it.

0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:14.720
<v Speaker 5>It's an incredibly exciting partnership for us. It's from an

0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:17.960
<v Speaker 5>Elastian point of view, it's the first major brand deal.

0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:20.200
<v Speaker 5>From the Williams point of view, it's the first time

0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.840
<v Speaker 5>it's the largest deal they've done. It is the first

0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:27.400
<v Speaker 5>time they've had a title partner and a technology partner.

0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:32.959
<v Speaker 4>Look, obviously, Williams is an amazing, storied.

0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:35.240
<v Speaker 5>Race team, right, one of the winningest teams of all

0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:41.800
<v Speaker 5>time and has had a challenging you last decade. However,

0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:45.560
<v Speaker 5>there is huge renewal going on in the Elasti Williams team.

0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:45.840
<v Speaker 6>Right.

0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:49.680
<v Speaker 5>This partnership is just one step new partnership, new driver,

0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:54.840
<v Speaker 5>new principles, new ownership, huge investment in digital transformation and

0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:57.719
<v Speaker 5>technology as a way to catch up and to win.

0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.400
<v Speaker 5>We are you know, I think eighty percent of the

0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.840
<v Speaker 5>teams on the Greed or more are at Lassian customers

0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:06.360
<v Speaker 5>and have been for decades.

0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:09.320
<v Speaker 4>So this is a sport where technology is really important.

0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:11.280
<v Speaker 4>It is a sport where.

0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:15.920
<v Speaker 5>Technology teams, those building you know, fluidynamics models and wind

0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:19.520
<v Speaker 5>tunnels and cars and all of the monitoring technology that

0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:21.680
<v Speaker 5>goes into it have to meet with the business teams,

0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:26.240
<v Speaker 5>those in the sponsorship groups. So our fundamental system of

0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:31.240
<v Speaker 5>work is what the company, what Elassie Williams is trying

0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:35.400
<v Speaker 5>to do and trying to embody We Then, obviously it's

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:36.040
<v Speaker 5>a global sport.

0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:37.439
<v Speaker 4>We have customers all around the world.

0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:40.040
<v Speaker 5>But more importantly, you know, having spent a lot of

0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 5>time now over the last six months with the Williams team,

0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.520
<v Speaker 5>this is a really great cultural fit for a Lassian.

0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:46.520
<v Speaker 4>This is a team of.

0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:50.040
<v Speaker 5>People who are working incredibly hard every day to use

0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 5>technology to try to change their fundamental outcome. They're on

0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:59.640
<v Speaker 5>a massive journey of rebuild the culture. The palpability of

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:04.480
<v Speaker 5>getting act to the winner's circle is phenomenal, and we

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.600
<v Speaker 5>just we fell in love with the story and we're like, okay,

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.160
<v Speaker 5>we can help you do this. So we're leaning very

0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:13.480
<v Speaker 5>heavily into technology partnership. We have a lot of things

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:15.480
<v Speaker 5>we can help them with to make their business far

0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:18.839
<v Speaker 5>more efficient and hopefully, you know, change the results of

0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:22.960
<v Speaker 5>the team, which is a mission that at Lastian now

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:24.280
<v Speaker 5>has thousands of people working on.

0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:25.720
<v Speaker 4>So sad about that.

0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:27.560
<v Speaker 3>It's a long term deal. It's been described as a

0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:30.280
<v Speaker 3>record breaking deal. Just for context. Can you give us

0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 3>some of the numbers behind this deal, how much it costs?

0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:36.400
<v Speaker 4>I can, Unfortunately, I can tell you that it is

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:37.760
<v Speaker 4>certainly a long term deal.

0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:41.280
<v Speaker 5>Are we're on the at Lastian Williams journey right and

0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:44.400
<v Speaker 5>we are trying to use all of our software and

0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:47.240
<v Speaker 5>all of our technology, and all of our culture and

0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:51.320
<v Speaker 5>our practices of how we work to show fundamentally our

0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 5>customers and to show the world that we can make

0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:58.800
<v Speaker 5>a massive difference in what is obviously an incredibly competitive industry.

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:04.120
<v Speaker 5>Right down to hundreds of milliseconds. The gap between first

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:06.520
<v Speaker 5>and last on the grid in the last race of

0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:08.240
<v Speaker 5>last year was the smallest it's ever been.

0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.840
<v Speaker 3>Is Okay, So we don't have the details on the

0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:16.560
<v Speaker 3>exact figures, but how do you justify ROI on this

0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:20.600
<v Speaker 3>given that it's such a big deal, and you know,

0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 3>it's kind of hard to measure how many people will

0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.760
<v Speaker 3>become LASSI in customers as a result of this title sponsorship.

0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:33.040
<v Speaker 5>Look, we're we always have been an incredibly metric focused organization.

0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 4>As a large bootstrap company.

0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:40.920
<v Speaker 5>You don't get that way without a numbers.

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.320
<v Speaker 4>Look, we have a number of success metrics here.

0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:48.400
<v Speaker 5>Firstly, always from a brand point of view, Formula one

0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.560
<v Speaker 5>is a very fast growing and global sport and we have,

0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:54.480
<v Speaker 5>as I mentioned, customers in almost every country on the planet.

0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.840
<v Speaker 5>So we need to continue to have our brand and

0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 5>our presence and our story told in a larger life

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:03.440
<v Speaker 5>way around the world. But that's obviously worth a lot

0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 5>of money to us. Secondly, as an enterprise opportunity, the

0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:12.960
<v Speaker 5>Formula one is you know, it's like a mobile executive

0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:16.360
<v Speaker 5>briefing center, right it takes its business. This is a

0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:18.720
<v Speaker 5>fantastical customer of it lasting that we can take to

0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:21.280
<v Speaker 5>twenty four cities around the world, and in those twenty

0:16:21.320 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 5>four cities we can bring our biggest customers to show

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.320
<v Speaker 5>them how Williams works, what we are doing to help

0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.320
<v Speaker 5>the team. And this is incredibly powerful in the enterprise

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:35.480
<v Speaker 5>to be able to show real world examples of what

0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:36.680
<v Speaker 5>we can do to help a customer.

0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:37.680
<v Speaker 7>Mike, just real quick.

0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:42.400
<v Speaker 2>One last question the Formula one, the FW four seven

0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:45.080
<v Speaker 2>car forty seven car that's going to have your branding.

0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 2>I guess it gets unveiled. I don't know really soon.

0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 2>Are you going to be able to take it around

0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:51.360
<v Speaker 2>the track? Have you been told that.

0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:51.960
<v Speaker 8>You're could or.

0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:56.000
<v Speaker 5>Look, my driving skills might need a little bit of

0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:59.480
<v Speaker 5>work for that one. I've certainly sat in the car

0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:02.200
<v Speaker 5>and tell you that is that is a challenging job.

0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:05.840
<v Speaker 5>That is not It's not not as comfortable as as

0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:09.080
<v Speaker 5>my daily driver, that's for sure. It does get failed

0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:12.240
<v Speaker 5>on Tuesday, and we're certainly really exciting. We've done some

0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:16.280
<v Speaker 5>really innovative actually, I think for for Formula one design

0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:19.600
<v Speaker 5>work between the Lassian design team and the Williams design teams.

0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:24.879
<v Speaker 5>So super excited to show the world the car on Tuesday,

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:28.560
<v Speaker 5>and super excited to show how we're trying to bring

0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:32.679
<v Speaker 5>our collaboration and teamwork practices, you know, right into that

0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.480
<v Speaker 5>into that car in fact, and into the garage, into

0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:38.320
<v Speaker 5>all the mechanics and all the strategiest that work on

0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:38.960
<v Speaker 5>the race as well.

0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:42.520
<v Speaker 4>So we're not just a digital company you'll see on Tuesday.

0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:45.280
<v Speaker 2>Don't totally need a AI for that, right, you just

0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:49.879
<v Speaker 2>need a really cool car. I'm just going to say.

0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 4>A lot of things to compete in the sports.

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.440
<v Speaker 5>So we're we're on the journey, we're learning a lot,

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:56.800
<v Speaker 5>and we're putting our.

0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 4>Shoulder behind it.

0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:58.920
<v Speaker 3>Carol, I do feel like if you signed the check,

0:17:58.920 --> 0:17:59.760
<v Speaker 3>you can drive the car.

0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:01.960
<v Speaker 2>I'm just gonna say, Mike, you know you do get

0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:04.239
<v Speaker 2>some leverage with all of this. I'm just gonna you know,

0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:06.040
<v Speaker 2>and the company name is going to be on the car,

0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.160
<v Speaker 2>so you should be able to take it out for spin.

0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:10.920
<v Speaker 5>Look, I would also say it might not be a

0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:13.200
<v Speaker 5>good idea for the Williams team or the Elastic team.

0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:17.080
<v Speaker 5>I'm not sure my team would think that's a great

0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:19.359
<v Speaker 5>idea for me to be driving it to three hundred

0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:21.960
<v Speaker 5>or more kays an hour around the track.

0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:25.600
<v Speaker 7>Here I hear you listen. Thank you so much.

0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:27.159
<v Speaker 2>We know it's later where you are, but we so

0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:30.160
<v Speaker 2>appreciate you joining us on this Thursday.

0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:32.720
<v Speaker 7>Really really appreciating. Good luck out with that partnership.

0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:36.159
<v Speaker 2>We've been of course talking to Mike cannon Brooks, he's CEO,

0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:39.000
<v Speaker 2>co founder of ed Lassian, and of course talking about

0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:41.520
<v Speaker 2>the new news that they had their deal, their partnership

0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:42.920
<v Speaker 2>when it comes to F one racing.

0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:44.720
<v Speaker 8>So some really cool thing with the Williams team.

0:18:45.680 --> 0:18:49.359
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:52.439
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from two to five these during listen

0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:56.040
<v Speaker 1>on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:58.960
<v Speaker 1>or watch us Live on YouTube.

0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:02.520
<v Speaker 2>Another headline from the President, I'd love to have Putin,

0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:05.439
<v Speaker 2>President Putin of Russia back in the G seven. He

0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:08.960
<v Speaker 2>also says, I do believe that President Putin really wants peace,

0:19:08.960 --> 0:19:12.760
<v Speaker 2>and of course he's referring to the war between Russia

0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:13.679
<v Speaker 2>and Ukraine Team well.

0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:17.320
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Economics calculates that protecting Ukraine and expanding their own

0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:21.200
<v Speaker 3>militaries could cost the continent's major powers an additional three

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.680
<v Speaker 3>point one trillion dollars over the next ten years.

0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:25.080
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's see what our guest has to say.

0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:28.159
<v Speaker 2>Let's head to London and Monica Bishkoshkaida. She is the

0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:32.080
<v Speaker 2>public policy director of the strategic consultancy firm Key Element Group.

0:19:32.200 --> 0:19:34.400
<v Speaker 2>Monica is so good to have you here with us,

0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:39.520
<v Speaker 2>President Trump. Another headline from the Oval Office, Russia should

0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:40.080
<v Speaker 2>be sitting.

0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:40.560
<v Speaker 7>At the table.

0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:43.840
<v Speaker 2>What are the tea leaves we need to read in

0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:46.400
<v Speaker 2>terms of what we are getting from President Trump today?

0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:50.440
<v Speaker 2>And also knowing that President Trump spoke with President Putin yesterday.

0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:55.639
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, so the call between President Trump and President of

0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.879
<v Speaker 9>Putin has shown that they're communicating directly, which means that

0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:01.800
<v Speaker 9>the Green husband sidelin Ukraine is not part of the

0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:05.560
<v Speaker 9>conversation about its own future. And as I said, right now,

0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:10.240
<v Speaker 9>it seems like there's normalization with Russia. The relationship with

0:20:10.359 --> 0:20:12.960
<v Speaker 9>Russia and Russia will be back at the table, which

0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:15.200
<v Speaker 9>in a vedy is unprecedented in that went the first

0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:19.480
<v Speaker 9>century you haven't seen another leader attack country in Europe

0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 9>and be back at the table after killing civilians, after

0:20:22.880 --> 0:20:26.280
<v Speaker 9>committing war crimes. So what we're seeing right now is unprecedented,

0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:31.000
<v Speaker 9>and we're seeing Putin who's being really emboldant strength things,

0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:33.280
<v Speaker 9>and he can clink the power for many years to

0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:35.960
<v Speaker 9>come because now he will have a huge victory just

0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:36.479
<v Speaker 9>to recap.

0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:38.880
<v Speaker 2>So Russia should be sitting at the table. He also

0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:41.680
<v Speaker 2>says that Ukraine will have a seat at the table.

0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:43.800
<v Speaker 2>He says he wanted to make sure Putin wanted to

0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:46.439
<v Speaker 2>do a deal that was earlier in the day. So

0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:50.040
<v Speaker 2>again we continue to see things. Do you think Russia's

0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:52.760
<v Speaker 2>in the driver's seat with this and then it'll be

0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:55.200
<v Speaker 2>more favorable to him in any deal.

0:20:56.320 --> 0:20:56.719
<v Speaker 8>I don't know.

0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:58.760
<v Speaker 2>Can you tell from some of what we've been getting

0:20:58.800 --> 0:20:59.920
<v Speaker 2>over the last couple of days.

0:21:01.240 --> 0:21:03.320
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, So the fact that the call was between the

0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:06.720
<v Speaker 9>two leaders, Trump and put In, all these shows that

0:21:06.760 --> 0:21:10.600
<v Speaker 9>the conversation was more direct and Zelenski was not involved

0:21:10.640 --> 0:21:13.840
<v Speaker 9>in this conversation. We have also seen a response from

0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:16.600
<v Speaker 9>European countries that have been saying that we should also

0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:19.280
<v Speaker 9>be included, because you know, this is about security of Europe.

0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:22.280
<v Speaker 9>Not only security about Ukraine, and they have not been

0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:25.840
<v Speaker 9>included yet in the conversation. So we see that the

0:21:25.920 --> 0:21:29.280
<v Speaker 9>decisions are being made already in a way. And we

0:21:29.320 --> 0:21:32.440
<v Speaker 9>saw the defend Secretary of the US talk about possible

0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:36.080
<v Speaker 9>conditions of this deal, for example, no need of membership

0:21:36.080 --> 0:21:39.879
<v Speaker 9>for Ukraine, no US troops underground in Ukraine, and Ukraine

0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:43.000
<v Speaker 9>having to accept territories that it has lost. So we

0:21:43.040 --> 0:21:46.320
<v Speaker 9>are already seeing this deal shaping up and Devita shaping up.

0:21:46.400 --> 0:21:46.800
<v Speaker 8>Right now.

0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:50.040
<v Speaker 9>We see that Russia definitely is the winner here and

0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:53.639
<v Speaker 9>Russia is getting exactly what Putin has wanted. And we

0:21:53.640 --> 0:21:57.600
<v Speaker 9>could also see that Russia will not have sanctions on

0:21:57.640 --> 0:22:00.720
<v Speaker 9>itself anymore, and then you know, the all will also

0:22:00.760 --> 0:22:03.240
<v Speaker 9>be supporting Putin, who will then be able to stay

0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:04.639
<v Speaker 9>in power for many years.

0:22:04.920 --> 0:22:07.640
<v Speaker 3>Given what we've learned from the President over the last

0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:09.800
<v Speaker 3>few days, including just in the last few minutes in

0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:13.240
<v Speaker 3>the Oval office, Monica, how do you think this war ends?

0:22:13.640 --> 0:22:18.240
<v Speaker 3>Does it mean land from Ukraine going to Russia, perhaps

0:22:18.320 --> 0:22:21.760
<v Speaker 3>natural resources to the United States in exchange for some protection.

0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:22.800
<v Speaker 3>What's your view?

0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:27.000
<v Speaker 9>So I think that you know, right now we only

0:22:27.040 --> 0:22:29.440
<v Speaker 9>have the public information that does come from the US

0:22:29.560 --> 0:22:33.800
<v Speaker 9>about possibility of ending this war. And yes, under this possibility,

0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:37.480
<v Speaker 9>Ukraine would lose territories that Russia currently controls. But I

0:22:37.520 --> 0:22:40.080
<v Speaker 9>think another aspect that nobody is right now talking about,

0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:42.480
<v Speaker 9>and it's very very important, is the impact that the

0:22:42.560 --> 0:22:45.040
<v Speaker 9>end of war would have for decades to come. And

0:22:45.080 --> 0:22:48.360
<v Speaker 9>I'm talking about Ukrainians and Ukrainian population. You had Ukrainian

0:22:48.400 --> 0:22:51.720
<v Speaker 9>population that does fighting for three years in this war,

0:22:51.840 --> 0:22:54.240
<v Speaker 9>and they were fighting for their own freedom, but we're

0:22:54.240 --> 0:22:56.720
<v Speaker 9>also being part of Europe, of the U, of NATO

0:22:57.040 --> 0:23:00.000
<v Speaker 9>and for freedom of the best. And how they will feel,

0:23:00.240 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 9>they will feel betrayed if this is how the war

0:23:03.400 --> 0:23:06.679
<v Speaker 9>ends and the terms are really unfavorable for Ukraine, and

0:23:06.720 --> 0:23:09.240
<v Speaker 9>then you have the satisfied population, you have the anti

0:23:09.320 --> 0:23:12.480
<v Speaker 9>Western sentiment. But I'm afraid of, and some people in

0:23:12.560 --> 0:23:15.639
<v Speaker 9>Ukraine are afraid of, is that this creates a really

0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:20.280
<v Speaker 9>fertile ground for future manipulations from Russia and potentially even

0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:22.040
<v Speaker 9>installing Acro Russian government.

0:23:22.359 --> 0:23:23.679
<v Speaker 2>You know, one thing I want to ask you, Monica,

0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:26.920
<v Speaker 2>that if the US you know, is basically you know,

0:23:27.040 --> 0:23:31.040
<v Speaker 2>saying that the European allies they have to shoulder most

0:23:31.040 --> 0:23:34.160
<v Speaker 2>of the burden for any settlement. And as Tim mentioned earlier,

0:23:34.560 --> 0:23:37.520
<v Speaker 2>you know, we're talking our own Bloomberg economics team that

0:23:37.680 --> 0:23:40.520
<v Speaker 2>protecting Ukraine and expanding their own militaries could cost the

0:23:40.560 --> 0:23:43.679
<v Speaker 2>continent's major powers in additional three point one trillion dollars

0:23:43.720 --> 0:23:47.119
<v Speaker 2>over the next ten years. If the US is backing

0:23:47.280 --> 0:23:51.840
<v Speaker 2>off in terms of financial support to its European allies,

0:23:52.640 --> 0:23:58.320
<v Speaker 2>what is likely to prevent President Putin from maybe waging

0:23:58.440 --> 0:24:03.080
<v Speaker 2>another war, going after another border at some point other territories.

0:24:04.600 --> 0:24:07.560
<v Speaker 9>So I think what was very important that President Trump

0:24:07.560 --> 0:24:09.840
<v Speaker 9>has said is that European countries really need to invest

0:24:09.920 --> 0:24:12.439
<v Speaker 9>in their own security and increase their defense spending. And

0:24:12.560 --> 0:24:15.520
<v Speaker 9>we have seen now for example, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia

0:24:15.600 --> 0:24:18.040
<v Speaker 9>that all the countries they're increasing their defense spending to

0:24:18.160 --> 0:24:21.199
<v Speaker 9>five percent. And of course these are small countries and

0:24:21.280 --> 0:24:23.840
<v Speaker 9>they don't have huge budgets for it. But other European

0:24:23.880 --> 0:24:26.879
<v Speaker 9>countries should follow this example and also increase their defense

0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:31.080
<v Speaker 9>spending and their budgets to be able to defend themselves

0:24:31.160 --> 0:24:33.560
<v Speaker 9>if the time comes. But also very important aspect they

0:24:33.600 --> 0:24:36.560
<v Speaker 9>want to mention is the reconstruction of Ukraine. That will

0:24:36.600 --> 0:24:39.560
<v Speaker 9>create a lot of opportunities for also American businesses to

0:24:39.600 --> 0:24:42.639
<v Speaker 9>be part of this reconstruction and to benefit financially in

0:24:42.680 --> 0:24:44.960
<v Speaker 9>the future from it as well. So I see two

0:24:44.960 --> 0:24:49.280
<v Speaker 9>coins of this argument, and I think that reconstruction is

0:24:49.320 --> 0:24:52.720
<v Speaker 9>something that should be considered. As you mentioned where earths

0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:55.560
<v Speaker 9>potentially could be a deal between US and Ukraine or

0:24:55.600 --> 0:24:58.760
<v Speaker 9>European countries and Ukraine. So there are definitely avenues to

0:24:58.800 --> 0:25:00.640
<v Speaker 9>be explored on financial site as well.

0:25:01.160 --> 0:25:03.840
<v Speaker 3>Monica, thanks so much. You're gonna have to leave it there.

0:25:04.240 --> 0:25:08.280
<v Speaker 3>Monica Beach Coorskaida. She is public policy director of the

0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:10.960
<v Speaker 3>strategic cultency firm Key Element Group.

0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:16.560
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each

0:25:16.560 --> 0:25:19.959
<v Speaker 1>weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Applecarclay, and Android

0:25:20.000 --> 0:25:23.040
<v Speaker 1>Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

0:25:23.119 --> 0:25:26.399
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:25:26.920 --> 0:25:29.600
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:25:30.920 --> 0:25:32.560
<v Speaker 3>As we've been reporting throughout the day, we're all in

0:25:32.560 --> 0:25:35.280
<v Speaker 3>on kind of understanding what's going on with these reciprocal tariffs.

0:25:35.280 --> 0:25:39.280
<v Speaker 3>Just to remind everybody, President Trump ordered his administration to

0:25:39.320 --> 0:25:43.480
<v Speaker 3>consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, raising the

0:25:43.520 --> 0:25:46.080
<v Speaker 3>prospect of a wider campaign against a global system that

0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:49.919
<v Speaker 3>he complains is tilted against the US. Ali Furman is

0:25:49.920 --> 0:25:53.400
<v Speaker 3>consumer Markets industry leader for PwC, and like many of us,

0:25:53.920 --> 0:25:56.520
<v Speaker 3>I think I can say our colleagues at Bloomberg Economics

0:25:56.560 --> 0:25:58.680
<v Speaker 3>have been doing this quite a bit, Yes, crunch in

0:25:58.720 --> 0:26:00.320
<v Speaker 3>the numbers to try to get a pick sure of

0:26:00.359 --> 0:26:03.560
<v Speaker 3>the impact of these tariffs. She joins us from New York.

0:26:03.640 --> 0:26:07.359
<v Speaker 3>Alli lots of work for the folks with the calculators today.

0:26:09.000 --> 0:26:12.560
<v Speaker 3>What are the calculations that you've seen at PWCs to

0:26:12.960 --> 0:26:14.840
<v Speaker 3>how much could be affected by these tariffs.

0:26:16.359 --> 0:26:18.520
<v Speaker 10>Well, first of all, thanks for having me again. It's

0:26:18.520 --> 0:26:21.280
<v Speaker 10>great to be back. Tim and Carroll. Listen.

0:26:21.359 --> 0:26:27.080
<v Speaker 11>We've done some industry impact analysis across all industries, looking

0:26:27.119 --> 0:26:30.359
<v Speaker 11>at the upper end of the tariff ranges that Trump

0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:34.520
<v Speaker 11>talked about during his run up to the presidency, and

0:26:34.600 --> 0:26:39.480
<v Speaker 11>we estimate the tariff revenues could increase from eighty one

0:26:39.560 --> 0:26:42.960
<v Speaker 11>billion a year to nearly nine hundred billion a year,

0:26:43.760 --> 0:26:47.040
<v Speaker 11>which is our figures that don't take into account countermeasures

0:26:47.080 --> 0:26:50.520
<v Speaker 11>that trading partners may impose in reaction to US policy changes.

0:26:50.520 --> 0:26:52.639
<v Speaker 11>But that's just taking into account the upper end of

0:26:52.680 --> 0:26:55.600
<v Speaker 11>the ranges that he talked about prior to any of

0:26:55.640 --> 0:26:57.520
<v Speaker 11>the executive orders that were actually signed.

0:26:57.960 --> 0:27:02.560
<v Speaker 10>But that's quite a significant jump eighty one billion to

0:27:02.680 --> 0:27:04.000
<v Speaker 10>nine hundred billion a year.

0:27:05.560 --> 0:27:08.880
<v Speaker 2>So the folks that you talk to, you know, clients

0:27:08.880 --> 0:27:10.360
<v Speaker 2>that you have, are they starting to freak out?

0:27:12.400 --> 0:27:13.560
<v Speaker 10>I wouldn't say freak out.

0:27:13.720 --> 0:27:16.400
<v Speaker 11>I think just over the last I would say ten

0:27:16.440 --> 0:27:18.920
<v Speaker 11>business days, we're seeing a lot of companies move from

0:27:19.000 --> 0:27:22.040
<v Speaker 11>kind of a planning slash weight and see phase into

0:27:22.119 --> 0:27:26.120
<v Speaker 11>a take action phase. So we're seeing you know, everything

0:27:26.240 --> 0:27:30.320
<v Speaker 11>from setting up the ability to dynamically model some of

0:27:30.359 --> 0:27:34.399
<v Speaker 11>these impacts that are very fluid, taking into account things

0:27:34.480 --> 0:27:39.000
<v Speaker 11>like ACE customs data, which every company has, that's that's

0:27:39.080 --> 0:27:42.400
<v Speaker 11>data around their imports, to you know, data from their

0:27:42.440 --> 0:27:47.960
<v Speaker 11>financial systems, trying to understand frankly, what the competition where

0:27:47.960 --> 0:27:50.479
<v Speaker 11>they import from. To just get a broad sense of

0:27:50.520 --> 0:27:53.359
<v Speaker 11>different scenarios and how to think about things like supply

0:27:53.480 --> 0:27:59.560
<v Speaker 11>chain dependencies, raw material sourcing, looking at transfer pricing strategies,

0:27:59.680 --> 0:28:05.320
<v Speaker 11>looking at you know, supply chain optimization moves, manufacturing optimization moves.

0:28:05.119 --> 0:28:08.680
<v Speaker 10>It's just, you know, it's a fluid situation. So being

0:28:08.720 --> 0:28:09.200
<v Speaker 10>able to.

0:28:09.320 --> 0:28:14.000
<v Speaker 11>Evaluated real time with dynamic models that allow for different

0:28:14.000 --> 0:28:17.840
<v Speaker 11>inputs and levers to assess, you know, what strategies to prioritize.

0:28:18.520 --> 0:28:20.680
<v Speaker 10>That's a really common way.

0:28:20.720 --> 0:28:23.720
<v Speaker 11>We're seeing companies like retaillers who are affected by this

0:28:23.920 --> 0:28:26.080
<v Speaker 11>and consumer packaged good companies.

0:28:26.440 --> 0:28:28.240
<v Speaker 7>Wait, so, al, is that a freak out or not?

0:28:29.680 --> 0:28:31.280
<v Speaker 11>I mean, I don't think it's a freak out, but

0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:34.879
<v Speaker 11>it's a it's a planful way of you know, considering

0:28:34.920 --> 0:28:35.639
<v Speaker 11>our options.

0:28:35.720 --> 0:28:38.160
<v Speaker 2>I would say, I mean, can we say like after

0:28:38.240 --> 0:28:40.880
<v Speaker 2>decades or years easily, but definitely decades.

0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:43.880
<v Speaker 7>I mean there's been a lot that has been said.

0:28:43.720 --> 0:28:47.200
<v Speaker 2>About you know, going to the low cost provider, especially

0:28:47.200 --> 0:28:50.880
<v Speaker 2>for manufacturing. I think about the retail industry and how

0:28:50.880 --> 0:28:53.840
<v Speaker 2>that made good business sets right and so so much

0:28:53.880 --> 0:28:57.520
<v Speaker 2>stuff was offshore. I mean, is this possibly a moment

0:28:57.560 --> 0:29:00.720
<v Speaker 2>in time where people have to really rethink their supply

0:29:00.840 --> 0:29:04.480
<v Speaker 2>chaine and in an environment that we're even our trading

0:29:04.560 --> 0:29:07.960
<v Speaker 2>partners and those that we get along with that it's

0:29:08.000 --> 0:29:09.640
<v Speaker 2>a complicated relationship.

0:29:11.200 --> 0:29:13.080
<v Speaker 10>My answer is yes, it is.

0:29:13.160 --> 0:29:17.960
<v Speaker 11>It is a moment in time to rethink suppliers and

0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:23.000
<v Speaker 11>also supply chain footprints. But keep in mind, neither of

0:29:23.040 --> 0:29:25.840
<v Speaker 11>those two things are like flip a switch and you

0:29:25.880 --> 0:29:27.640
<v Speaker 11>can you can change them all tomorrow.

0:29:27.640 --> 0:29:29.320
<v Speaker 10>They're kind of longer term.

0:29:29.760 --> 0:29:33.560
<v Speaker 11>Mitigation strategies to these tariffs versus shorter term in the

0:29:33.600 --> 0:29:37.040
<v Speaker 11>short term. You know, the impact that tariffs are likely

0:29:37.080 --> 0:29:39.680
<v Speaker 11>to have on companies is margin erosion, particularly some of

0:29:39.680 --> 0:29:41.960
<v Speaker 11>these companies that have thinner margins to begin with.

0:29:42.040 --> 0:29:43.880
<v Speaker 3>Like so for example give us some examples.

0:29:44.760 --> 0:29:48.760
<v Speaker 11>So you know, apparel okay, thing relatively thin margins, right,

0:29:48.800 --> 0:29:52.960
<v Speaker 11>So you have to think about ways to mitigate margin erosion,

0:29:53.520 --> 0:29:56.520
<v Speaker 11>even outside of direct tariff mitigation levers like we just

0:29:56.560 --> 0:30:01.640
<v Speaker 11>described around supply chain optimization and moving your manufacturing operations

0:30:01.640 --> 0:30:04.360
<v Speaker 11>out of China to other Southeast Asian countries or back

0:30:04.400 --> 0:30:05.120
<v Speaker 11>into the US.

0:30:05.480 --> 0:30:08.040
<v Speaker 10>So you think about ways to mitigate margin erodi.

0:30:08.080 --> 0:30:11.280
<v Speaker 11>You think about cost cutting, cost cutting in you know,

0:30:11.680 --> 0:30:14.800
<v Speaker 11>functional areas where you can maybe leverage AI or other

0:30:14.840 --> 0:30:18.280
<v Speaker 11>types of emerging technology to make your processes more efficient

0:30:18.480 --> 0:30:19.640
<v Speaker 11>and get some cost out of.

0:30:19.640 --> 0:30:22.440
<v Speaker 10>The business to try to hedge some of this tariff impact.

0:30:22.680 --> 0:30:23.560
<v Speaker 10>Because I'll tell you what.

0:30:23.920 --> 0:30:28.040
<v Speaker 11>You know, today's market from a consumer perspective, twenty twenty

0:30:28.040 --> 0:30:31.840
<v Speaker 11>five is very different than it wasn't twenty eighteen. Consumers

0:30:31.880 --> 0:30:34.960
<v Speaker 11>have are fatigued from going through this inflationary period, with

0:30:35.040 --> 0:30:38.200
<v Speaker 11>shelf prices increasing thirty percent in the last five years,

0:30:39.440 --> 0:30:41.680
<v Speaker 11>you know, it's going to be very hard to pass

0:30:41.720 --> 0:30:44.680
<v Speaker 11>on all of this tariff impact to the consumer of

0:30:44.760 --> 0:30:48.360
<v Speaker 11>today and not see a negative impact to your volumes.

0:30:48.600 --> 0:30:51.600
<v Speaker 11>So you really have to think about other strategies to employ.

0:30:52.080 --> 0:30:54.240
<v Speaker 11>Some of this is likely to flow to the consumer.

0:30:54.360 --> 0:30:57.400
<v Speaker 3>Unfortunately, do you do okay, do any of those strategies

0:30:57.440 --> 0:30:59.920
<v Speaker 3>include moving manufacturing to the United States.

0:31:00.880 --> 0:31:03.720
<v Speaker 10>For sure, But that's a longer term proposition.

0:31:04.320 --> 0:31:06.360
<v Speaker 11>It's not something that is going to be able to

0:31:06.520 --> 0:31:09.280
<v Speaker 11>just quickly be implemented in the short term and see

0:31:09.280 --> 0:31:12.480
<v Speaker 11>the roi of doing that. It just it's a complicated

0:31:12.680 --> 0:31:16.959
<v Speaker 11>situation to move your manufacturing from Asia to the United States.

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:19.840
<v Speaker 3>But in some cases it's like it's not even possible.

0:31:19.880 --> 0:31:22.960
<v Speaker 3>I mean, you know, we have a story later that

0:31:22.960 --> 0:31:26.000
<v Speaker 3>we're going to talk about the company Shark Ninja. They

0:31:26.000 --> 0:31:27.840
<v Speaker 3>make the Ninja Creamy. My sister got one of those

0:31:27.840 --> 0:31:31.880
<v Speaker 3>for Christmas. By the way, yeah your microphone's offer. Sorry, yeah, really,

0:31:31.880 --> 0:31:34.080
<v Speaker 3>she got it and she loves it. That's what she

0:31:34.120 --> 0:31:35.000
<v Speaker 3>asks for from everyone.

0:31:35.040 --> 0:31:37.520
<v Speaker 2>But if she's buying it, maybe with tariffs or if

0:31:37.520 --> 0:31:39.640
<v Speaker 2>somebody's going SANFT clause Okay.

0:31:39.360 --> 0:31:43.640
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, doesn't have tariffs. The CEO told Bloomberg that they're

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:45.760
<v Speaker 3>not moving to the US. He said, here's what he said. Quote,

0:31:45.760 --> 0:31:47.680
<v Speaker 3>our industry doesn't exist in the US. The product is

0:31:47.680 --> 0:31:50.240
<v Speaker 3>not made here, the components are not made here. It's

0:31:50.280 --> 0:31:52.040
<v Speaker 3>not like the car industry that you could say, well,

0:31:52.080 --> 0:31:54.480
<v Speaker 3>let's flex it back to the United States. It's not

0:31:54.560 --> 0:31:57.280
<v Speaker 3>something we believe is on the horizon. How many more

0:31:57.280 --> 0:31:58.760
<v Speaker 3>of those types of companies are out there. I mean,

0:31:58.800 --> 0:32:00.880
<v Speaker 3>you're not going to see apparel made in the US

0:32:01.360 --> 0:32:04.720
<v Speaker 3>on a wide scale basis, right, Niche.

0:32:04.440 --> 0:32:08.320
<v Speaker 11>Markets, smaller retailers, you know, like American Giant might see,

0:32:08.360 --> 0:32:10.720
<v Speaker 11>you know, some additional market share from this. Think about

0:32:10.800 --> 0:32:15.840
<v Speaker 11>small furniture stores that maybe you know, US based, would

0:32:15.840 --> 0:32:19.560
<v Speaker 11>supply companies, local butcher butcher shops even could benefit from

0:32:19.560 --> 0:32:21.200
<v Speaker 11>this in the short term.

0:32:21.960 --> 0:32:22.920
<v Speaker 8>But yes, no, you're.

0:32:22.840 --> 0:32:26.840
<v Speaker 11>Right, this, the move to US manufacturing is not applicable

0:32:26.960 --> 0:32:30.440
<v Speaker 11>to all industries or you know, all types of products,

0:32:30.600 --> 0:32:33.760
<v Speaker 11>So it cannot be relied on as the sole you know,

0:32:33.840 --> 0:32:37.600
<v Speaker 11>tariff mitigation measure. It should be evaluated, you know, amongst

0:32:37.600 --> 0:32:40.560
<v Speaker 11>many other things that companies are considering doing.

0:32:41.120 --> 0:32:43.120
<v Speaker 10>All right, crazing strategy is another one.

0:32:43.320 --> 0:32:46.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, oh okay, cool, Thank you, Thank you so much.

0:32:46.200 --> 0:32:47.080
<v Speaker 7>Alie Furman.

0:32:47.200 --> 0:32:51.400
<v Speaker 2>She is consumer Markets industry leader for PwC. Joining us

0:32:51.600 --> 0:32:52.680
<v Speaker 2>right here in New York City.

0:32:53.680 --> 0:32:57.360
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:32:57.440 --> 0:33:00.440
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from two to five these during listen

0:33:00.480 --> 0:33:04.040
<v Speaker 1>on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:33:04.200 --> 0:33:06.920
<v Speaker 1>or watch US live on YouTube.

0:33:08.160 --> 0:33:11.120
<v Speaker 3>We are all in on tariffs today. I mentioned this

0:33:12.000 --> 0:33:15.640
<v Speaker 3>I think with John Taffer or even earlier. Yeah, we

0:33:15.760 --> 0:33:17.360
<v Speaker 3>talked about it with me, We talked about it with you.

0:33:17.680 --> 0:33:21.520
<v Speaker 3>Shark Ninja. They make the creamy. They have said that

0:33:21.560 --> 0:33:24.760
<v Speaker 3>they're largely cutting out China in its supply chain for

0:33:24.800 --> 0:33:27.160
<v Speaker 3>the US market as tariff's increase costs. But it's not

0:33:27.200 --> 0:33:30.120
<v Speaker 3>going to make the products in the US. The company CEO,

0:33:30.160 --> 0:33:33.640
<v Speaker 3>Mark Baracas told Bloomberg that our industry doesn't exist in

0:33:33.680 --> 0:33:36.880
<v Speaker 3>the US. It's not like the car industry. The components

0:33:36.880 --> 0:33:40.080
<v Speaker 3>are not here. You can't say, let's flex it back

0:33:40.120 --> 0:33:42.680
<v Speaker 3>to the United States. It's not something we believe is

0:33:42.720 --> 0:33:45.680
<v Speaker 3>on the horizon. Companies adjusting their supply chains is our

0:33:45.680 --> 0:33:49.320
<v Speaker 3>next guest specialty CRISP is a platform and analyzes data

0:33:49.360 --> 0:33:53.400
<v Speaker 3>across the supply chain, I think retailers, distributors, and brands.

0:33:53.800 --> 0:33:56.000
<v Speaker 3>Ari Trasdahl is the founder and CEO at CRISP. He

0:33:56.120 --> 0:34:00.480
<v Speaker 3>joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio remind

0:34:00.480 --> 0:34:03.200
<v Speaker 3>everyone of where you touch the supply chain, where you

0:34:03.200 --> 0:34:03.840
<v Speaker 3>come into it.

0:34:04.280 --> 0:34:07.000
<v Speaker 12>Great. Yeah, CHRISP works cross the entire supply chain.

0:34:07.360 --> 0:34:12.320
<v Speaker 13>We have about six thousand CPGs and food companies, pharma

0:34:12.520 --> 0:34:16.200
<v Speaker 13>companies on the platform and help them kind of understand

0:34:16.280 --> 0:34:24.359
<v Speaker 13>the retail sales cross two hundred and fifty thousand stores, pricing, distribution, inventory, etc.

0:34:24.760 --> 0:34:27.319
<v Speaker 13>But also kind of through the supply chain that they

0:34:27.360 --> 0:34:29.080
<v Speaker 13>have behind them all.

0:34:29.239 --> 0:34:31.719
<v Speaker 3>Does it go all the way back to where it

0:34:31.880 --> 0:34:34.000
<v Speaker 3>was created, the ingredients that go into it, or does

0:34:34.000 --> 0:34:36.600
<v Speaker 3>the supply chain just start once it hits a certain

0:34:36.640 --> 0:34:39.480
<v Speaker 3>geographical area and that distributor gets the US gets the

0:34:39.480 --> 0:34:40.000
<v Speaker 3>store shelf.

0:34:40.160 --> 0:34:44.640
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, but typically we use closer to consumer, So it's retailers,

0:34:44.680 --> 0:34:49.960
<v Speaker 13>it's distributors, and it's large manufacturers, but large CPGs that

0:34:50.040 --> 0:34:53.359
<v Speaker 13>we work with and they might have one hundred and

0:34:53.360 --> 0:34:59.680
<v Speaker 13>fifty two hundred thousand suppliers that are from domestically and

0:34:59.719 --> 0:35:02.400
<v Speaker 13>from the nationally, so they leverage our data.

0:35:02.239 --> 0:35:05.000
<v Speaker 12>To plan through their entire supply chain.

0:35:05.120 --> 0:35:07.560
<v Speaker 2>Is there anything you can see already where or maybe

0:35:07.600 --> 0:35:10.680
<v Speaker 2>in your conversations with some of your customers, are what

0:35:10.719 --> 0:35:14.040
<v Speaker 2>you are hearing in terms of what we're getting at

0:35:14.040 --> 0:35:19.920
<v Speaker 2>the White House tariffs, threats of tariffs, and whether increasingly

0:35:20.040 --> 0:35:24.200
<v Speaker 2>they're thinking about our rethinking where their global supply chain

0:35:24.719 --> 0:35:27.640
<v Speaker 2>has to be, and whether or not they're creating redundant

0:35:27.960 --> 0:35:30.480
<v Speaker 2>supply chains to make sure that they're in a good

0:35:30.520 --> 0:35:31.719
<v Speaker 2>situation or good place.

0:35:31.920 --> 0:35:31.960
<v Speaker 5>No.

0:35:32.080 --> 0:35:33.480
<v Speaker 12>Yes, absolutely, it is.

0:35:34.320 --> 0:35:39.080
<v Speaker 13>Supply chains react poorly to uncertainty, and we saw that

0:35:39.200 --> 0:35:45.279
<v Speaker 13>during the pandemic as well, and similar behaviors as consumers

0:35:45.360 --> 0:35:48.160
<v Speaker 13>have we see the similar behavior on professional retailers and

0:35:48.200 --> 0:35:51.239
<v Speaker 13>professional manufacturers and distributors. It's to make sure that you

0:35:51.280 --> 0:35:55.279
<v Speaker 13>have enough of these products. So the cost that we're

0:35:55.280 --> 0:35:57.600
<v Speaker 13>going to see in the supply chain is both coming

0:35:57.640 --> 0:36:00.400
<v Speaker 13>from the increase of the cost of the ends, but

0:36:00.480 --> 0:36:03.960
<v Speaker 13>it's also coming from the cost of just this challenge

0:36:04.040 --> 0:36:08.239
<v Speaker 13>is rippling through a long supply chain with overstocks and understocks,

0:36:08.239 --> 0:36:10.000
<v Speaker 13>and we kind of remember all of this from the

0:36:10.680 --> 0:36:14.160
<v Speaker 13>from the pandemic. So already starting to see those type

0:36:14.160 --> 0:36:16.440
<v Speaker 13>of shorter term initiatives.

0:36:16.480 --> 0:36:18.000
<v Speaker 3>So did we not learn anything.

0:36:18.600 --> 0:36:20.520
<v Speaker 12>I'm not sure if we learned anything. We learned a

0:36:20.560 --> 0:36:20.960
<v Speaker 12>little bit.

0:36:21.040 --> 0:36:23.880
<v Speaker 3>Did we learn like make the ppe here in the

0:36:24.000 --> 0:36:25.080
<v Speaker 3>US did we learn that?

0:36:25.280 --> 0:36:28.080
<v Speaker 2>Did any changes come back where people substantially change their

0:36:28.080 --> 0:36:30.400
<v Speaker 2>global supply I think I feel like we've had conversations

0:36:30.400 --> 0:36:32.200
<v Speaker 2>with people who did some rethings.

0:36:32.200 --> 0:36:33.680
<v Speaker 3>I mean, there's been a lot of near showing. There's

0:36:33.680 --> 0:36:36.800
<v Speaker 3>been a lot of like if you go, we've Business

0:36:36.800 --> 0:36:39.400
<v Speaker 3>Week gets written about this, the rise of factories south

0:36:39.440 --> 0:36:42.760
<v Speaker 3>of the border, Chinese factories being built in Mexico.

0:36:42.880 --> 0:36:44.640
<v Speaker 2>But absolutely, and some of it just makes sense to

0:36:44.680 --> 0:36:45.800
<v Speaker 2>be closer to where you're selling.

0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:48.040
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, yes, absolutely, so we saw a lot of that

0:36:48.120 --> 0:36:50.840
<v Speaker 13>after the pandemic. And there's a lot of investments in

0:36:50.880 --> 0:36:53.719
<v Speaker 13>technology actually, because it's not like we're starting out with

0:36:53.800 --> 0:36:56.880
<v Speaker 13>a very robust supplate supply chain in the first place,

0:36:57.040 --> 0:36:59.120
<v Speaker 13>take through the loan, which is kind of one of

0:36:59.160 --> 0:37:01.400
<v Speaker 13>the big parts of what CRISP dost A. Third, all

0:37:01.480 --> 0:37:03.160
<v Speaker 13>the few that's made in the world is lost in

0:37:03.200 --> 0:37:07.080
<v Speaker 13>the supply chain, just the inefficiencies, and well that's ridiculous.

0:37:07.080 --> 0:37:08.799
<v Speaker 7>So with all the technology we have.

0:37:10.719 --> 0:37:12.680
<v Speaker 2>You know, you're just saying, in the process and just

0:37:12.719 --> 0:37:15.239
<v Speaker 2>moving it around, we lose a third of all the

0:37:15.280 --> 0:37:18.680
<v Speaker 2>food that comes through the supply chain spoilage, ye.

0:37:18.760 --> 0:37:21.280
<v Speaker 13>To spoilage from all the way from where it's grown

0:37:21.360 --> 0:37:24.840
<v Speaker 13>to its exported to it's imported to productions of one third.

0:37:24.960 --> 0:37:26.520
<v Speaker 13>At the same time, you have a billion people that

0:37:26.560 --> 0:37:29.160
<v Speaker 13>live with some kind of food insecurities in the world,

0:37:29.280 --> 0:37:31.680
<v Speaker 13>right So, which is the one part of this. But

0:37:31.719 --> 0:37:36.080
<v Speaker 13>these supply chains are are really not very robust. So

0:37:36.280 --> 0:37:39.520
<v Speaker 13>and when these things happen like a pandemic and what

0:37:39.560 --> 0:37:43.000
<v Speaker 13>we're seeing now as well. My concern, in addition to

0:37:43.040 --> 0:37:46.040
<v Speaker 13>increased prices is also these kind of big ripple effects

0:37:46.080 --> 0:37:47.719
<v Speaker 13>that go through the supply chain.

0:37:48.520 --> 0:37:49.640
<v Speaker 7>I might blown away by that.

0:37:49.680 --> 0:37:49.840
<v Speaker 3>You know.

0:37:50.160 --> 0:37:52.040
<v Speaker 2>The other thing is I think about when I grew up,

0:37:52.360 --> 0:37:55.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, you had seasons where you got things. Right

0:37:55.080 --> 0:37:57.160
<v Speaker 2>now I'm getting you know, strawberries in the middle of

0:37:57.360 --> 0:38:00.200
<v Speaker 2>or at any time, like maybe there's something wrong.

0:38:00.040 --> 0:38:00.719
<v Speaker 8>Long to that.

0:38:00.880 --> 0:38:04.400
<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, because if I'm thinking, if we're moving

0:38:04.440 --> 0:38:07.400
<v Speaker 2>shipping stuff around and we're losing so much of it,

0:38:07.520 --> 0:38:09.799
<v Speaker 2>that just seems like such a bad thing. It's also

0:38:09.840 --> 0:38:12.520
<v Speaker 2>not good for the environment, the waste, I mean, the spoilage.

0:38:13.040 --> 0:38:15.799
<v Speaker 3>If you come to California, strawberry seasons every time of

0:38:15.800 --> 0:38:16.120
<v Speaker 3>the year.

0:38:16.200 --> 0:38:17.439
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, but that's California.

0:38:17.520 --> 0:38:19.799
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Like I will tell you those were the fall

0:38:19.920 --> 0:38:22.480
<v Speaker 3>the grapefruit I today had a sticker that it was

0:38:22.480 --> 0:38:23.080
<v Speaker 3>from Israel.

0:38:23.320 --> 0:38:24.920
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

0:38:25.040 --> 0:38:27.239
<v Speaker 2>So how do we solve something like that or are

0:38:27.280 --> 0:38:29.279
<v Speaker 2>we not going to because people have gotten used to

0:38:29.520 --> 0:38:32.200
<v Speaker 2>I can get anything I wanted anytime of the year, I.

0:38:32.160 --> 0:38:35.120
<v Speaker 13>Believe, so all the consumer behaviors has truly changed and

0:38:35.480 --> 0:38:38.040
<v Speaker 13>they want to have all the products at all time,

0:38:38.320 --> 0:38:41.800
<v Speaker 13>and that you have to have global, global supply of

0:38:42.280 --> 0:38:47.200
<v Speaker 13>this product daughter components. I find interesting is also to

0:38:47.200 --> 0:38:50.040
<v Speaker 13>build the materials. We will always kind of think about, Okay,

0:38:50.040 --> 0:38:52.319
<v Speaker 13>avocado's going to get more expensive or are going to

0:38:52.480 --> 0:38:55.920
<v Speaker 13>get more expensive, But also it's as we see kind

0:38:55.960 --> 0:38:59.440
<v Speaker 13>of firsthand, is that a typical CpG product has fifteen

0:38:59.520 --> 0:39:04.279
<v Speaker 13>to twin any different different type of ingredients. So if

0:39:04.320 --> 0:39:06.719
<v Speaker 13>you have shortage or the higher prices and all that,

0:39:06.719 --> 0:39:08.719
<v Speaker 13>there's a lot of decisions that needs to kind of

0:39:08.960 --> 0:39:11.880
<v Speaker 13>happen based upon just building materials as well. So not

0:39:11.920 --> 0:39:15.040
<v Speaker 13>only the fifteen percent of the products that are directly impacted,

0:39:15.040 --> 0:39:17.680
<v Speaker 13>but it's also all of the products that are indirectly impact.

0:39:17.840 --> 0:39:20.120
<v Speaker 3>Does your platform also handle recalls.

0:39:20.560 --> 0:39:23.879
<v Speaker 13>Yes, shargebacks, recalls and things that need to come back

0:39:23.960 --> 0:39:24.840
<v Speaker 13>from the retailer.

0:39:25.120 --> 0:39:26.640
<v Speaker 12>We also see those that type of.

0:39:27.000 --> 0:39:29.320
<v Speaker 3>Is that happening more and more? Is it happening less?

0:39:29.440 --> 0:39:32.520
<v Speaker 3>Can we? I'm always shocked when I see a large

0:39:32.520 --> 0:39:35.560
<v Speaker 3>scale recall and the scale of it. You know, everybody

0:39:35.560 --> 0:39:38.440
<v Speaker 3>throwing away a certain bag of spinach or something, or

0:39:38.680 --> 0:39:40.840
<v Speaker 3>this week it was tuna that was bought at different

0:39:40.880 --> 0:39:42.800
<v Speaker 3>stores had to be thrown away.

0:39:42.960 --> 0:39:44.839
<v Speaker 13>Absolutely not. We see all of those type of thing

0:39:44.880 --> 0:39:46.680
<v Speaker 13>seasonal products at the end of the season.

0:39:46.920 --> 0:39:48.040
<v Speaker 3>But is that happening less?

0:39:48.800 --> 0:39:50.000
<v Speaker 12>I think it's quite stable.

0:39:50.040 --> 0:39:53.360
<v Speaker 13>We saw a lot of it right after the pandemic

0:39:53.400 --> 0:39:56.760
<v Speaker 13>because you had so many, so huge swings on everything,

0:39:58.040 --> 0:40:00.719
<v Speaker 13>but I would expect that to increase a lot now.

0:40:01.560 --> 0:40:05.320
<v Speaker 13>Every time you get these ripples, the consequences are typically

0:40:05.640 --> 0:40:06.280
<v Speaker 13>the vehicles.

0:40:06.360 --> 0:40:09.480
<v Speaker 2>How much does the waste and something like food add

0:40:09.520 --> 0:40:13.600
<v Speaker 2>to the cost of food and just at about thirty seconds.

0:40:13.239 --> 0:40:14.360
<v Speaker 12>Very good, very good question.

0:40:14.560 --> 0:40:17.480
<v Speaker 13>So at least a third of the food in the

0:40:17.480 --> 0:40:22.360
<v Speaker 13>supply channels then is lost, So the waste has huge

0:40:22.360 --> 0:40:27.040
<v Speaker 13>potential for the reduction of consumer consumer prices. So can

0:40:27.040 --> 0:40:29.480
<v Speaker 13>we think about this at twenty percent thirty percent reduction

0:40:29.520 --> 0:40:32.400
<v Speaker 13>of consumer prices if you just could get this under control.

0:40:33.440 --> 0:40:36.560
<v Speaker 13>The other part is also assortment and package sizes.

0:40:36.640 --> 0:40:37.680
<v Speaker 12>It's very complex.

0:40:37.840 --> 0:40:41.120
<v Speaker 13>If you go into a retailer, you typically see fifty

0:40:41.200 --> 0:40:47.400
<v Speaker 13>thousand different products merchandised by one. So and the retailers

0:40:47.400 --> 0:40:51.040
<v Speaker 13>have had a lot of initiatives around I'm introducing that

0:40:51.120 --> 0:40:55.480
<v Speaker 13>and rationalizing all of these products as well. But the

0:40:55.520 --> 0:40:58.920
<v Speaker 13>consumer product companies, they want to make more products, more flavored, more.

0:40:59.200 --> 0:41:00.640
<v Speaker 7>I'm overwhelmed. Go to the supermar.

0:41:00.760 --> 0:41:03.160
<v Speaker 8>I'm like, I just want plane water. I just want

0:41:03.200 --> 0:41:03.719
<v Speaker 8>playing this.

0:41:04.800 --> 0:41:07.160
<v Speaker 3>Buying water at the supermarket now, okay good.

0:41:07.000 --> 0:41:07.960
<v Speaker 8>Not really, I got to filter it.

0:41:08.160 --> 0:41:10.239
<v Speaker 3>Okay good, But I'm just saying we can talk about that.

0:41:10.320 --> 0:41:12.239
<v Speaker 7>Go on a plane. I'm like, over oh yeah, I know.

0:41:12.719 --> 0:41:12.919
<v Speaker 8>Ari.

0:41:13.040 --> 0:41:15.279
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for coming in, Ari charge, We founder and see

0:41:15.320 --> 0:41:17.280
<v Speaker 2>you at Chris joining us right here in studio.

0:41:19.680 --> 0:41:23.359
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live each

0:41:23.360 --> 0:41:26.400
<v Speaker 1>weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple, Corflay, and

0:41:26.400 --> 0:41:29.440
<v Speaker 1>Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

0:41:29.560 --> 0:41:32.879
<v Speaker 1>listen live on Amazon Alexa, from our flagship New York

0:41:32.920 --> 0:41:36.400
<v Speaker 1>station Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:41:37.400 --> 0:41:40.319
<v Speaker 3>Well, yesterday's CPI number showed us that inflation still an

0:41:40.400 --> 0:41:43.840
<v Speaker 3>issue in many categories, including food and beverage. Food and

0:41:43.880 --> 0:41:46.480
<v Speaker 3>beverage was up two point four percent year over year

0:41:46.560 --> 0:41:49.239
<v Speaker 3>rose three tenths of one percent from the previous month.

0:41:49.760 --> 0:41:51.799
<v Speaker 7>Eggs, Carol, we talked about it.

0:41:51.840 --> 0:41:54.759
<v Speaker 3>We talked about it. You see the waffle house, the

0:41:54.840 --> 0:41:59.920
<v Speaker 3>fifty cent egg surcharge as a result of the difficulty

0:42:00.040 --> 0:42:02.359
<v Speaker 3>and procuring eggs. How are that you.

0:42:02.320 --> 0:42:04.080
<v Speaker 8>Still have some makes in the frights?

0:42:04.160 --> 0:42:07.239
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I want to ask what John to Taffer has

0:42:07.239 --> 0:42:09.160
<v Speaker 2>to say about kind of the environment, whether it's the

0:42:09.160 --> 0:42:12.000
<v Speaker 2>cost of food and everything which all goes into running

0:42:12.880 --> 0:42:15.120
<v Speaker 2>certainly restaurants and bars.

0:42:14.920 --> 0:42:15.919
<v Speaker 7>Certainly if they're serving food.

0:42:16.000 --> 0:42:17.920
<v Speaker 2>John Taffer is back with us here in our Bloomberg

0:42:17.960 --> 0:42:20.840
<v Speaker 2>Interactive Broker studio. As you know, he is the author

0:42:20.840 --> 0:42:23.560
<v Speaker 2>of several books, including the Power of Conflicts, Speak your Mind,

0:42:23.600 --> 0:42:25.840
<v Speaker 2>Get the results you want. He's also the EP of

0:42:25.920 --> 0:42:28.719
<v Speaker 2>Bar Rescue, which is now in its wet.

0:42:28.480 --> 0:42:30.680
<v Speaker 3>Season, ten season, fifteenth year.

0:42:30.840 --> 0:42:32.240
<v Speaker 7>That's amazing, that is amazing.

0:42:32.239 --> 0:42:34.840
<v Speaker 3>Where Network POWERMUNT Network welcome back.

0:42:34.719 --> 0:42:35.279
<v Speaker 7>Welcome back.

0:42:35.360 --> 0:42:38.320
<v Speaker 2>I mean, listen, when you started this, did you anticipated

0:42:38.360 --> 0:42:39.759
<v Speaker 2>all that this was going to go this long?

0:42:40.120 --> 0:42:40.200
<v Speaker 4>No?

0:42:40.480 --> 0:42:40.880
<v Speaker 6>I did not.

0:42:41.200 --> 0:42:43.880
<v Speaker 14>And you know, we had what we called escalating costs.

0:42:44.280 --> 0:42:47.400
<v Speaker 14>Now we have creeping costs, so it's a little slower.

0:42:47.440 --> 0:42:49.680
<v Speaker 14>But you know, the restaurant business is such that food

0:42:49.719 --> 0:42:52.360
<v Speaker 14>costs can't really exceed thirty percent thirty three percent. So

0:42:52.440 --> 0:42:54.440
<v Speaker 14>for every dollar that my costs go up, I have

0:42:54.520 --> 0:42:56.080
<v Speaker 14>to raise it three dollars to the consumer.

0:42:56.200 --> 0:42:56.439
<v Speaker 12>Wow.

0:42:56.880 --> 0:42:59.120
<v Speaker 6>Now there's only a certain amount of elasticity in that.

0:42:59.600 --> 0:43:02.880
<v Speaker 14>So say my hamburger prices go up three dollars, I

0:43:02.920 --> 0:43:05.400
<v Speaker 14>got to increase them by nine dollars. Now the consumer's

0:43:05.440 --> 0:43:08.080
<v Speaker 14>not going to accept that nine dollars. So maybe I

0:43:08.080 --> 0:43:10.560
<v Speaker 14>can push it to three or four dollars so I

0:43:10.560 --> 0:43:14.400
<v Speaker 14>can recover half of the inflationary impact on my business.

0:43:14.560 --> 0:43:16.960
<v Speaker 14>But in many cases, I can't recover all of it.

0:43:17.480 --> 0:43:20.479
<v Speaker 14>So that's where it's eroding on our operating costs.

0:43:20.560 --> 0:43:22.000
<v Speaker 7>So what do you do, John? Do you like make

0:43:22.040 --> 0:43:22.960
<v Speaker 7>the burger smaller?

0:43:23.080 --> 0:43:24.600
<v Speaker 14>Do you Well, you have a couple of choices. You

0:43:24.600 --> 0:43:27.840
<v Speaker 14>can make the burger smaller, that's one choice, or you

0:43:27.880 --> 0:43:30.560
<v Speaker 14>can raise your prices, or you can try to redesign

0:43:30.600 --> 0:43:33.760
<v Speaker 14>your menu. So, for example, and this is interesting, psychological

0:43:33.800 --> 0:43:37.200
<v Speaker 14>pricing and eye tracking with laser movement tells me that

0:43:37.239 --> 0:43:39.480
<v Speaker 14>if I box an item on the menu, sales of

0:43:39.480 --> 0:43:41.080
<v Speaker 14>that item will go up by twenty percent.

0:43:41.960 --> 0:43:43.040
<v Speaker 3>If I shadow or.

0:43:43.040 --> 0:43:46.160
<v Speaker 14>Chef specially goes up by about fourteen percent. People have

0:43:46.200 --> 0:43:49.080
<v Speaker 14>a six percent propensity to order the bottom two items

0:43:49.080 --> 0:43:51.319
<v Speaker 14>on a list. So what I'll do is, I'll take

0:43:51.360 --> 0:43:54.760
<v Speaker 14>my most profitable item in dollars and cents, not percentage.

0:43:54.960 --> 0:43:58.040
<v Speaker 14>I'll box that one, take my second, most, shadow it,

0:43:58.120 --> 0:44:00.520
<v Speaker 14>third and fourth, put them on a list properly. I

0:44:00.560 --> 0:44:03.440
<v Speaker 14>won't price anything other than ninety five cents. There's no

0:44:03.520 --> 0:44:06.120
<v Speaker 14>such thing as eight twenty five, eight fifty, eight seventy five.

0:44:06.160 --> 0:44:08.200
<v Speaker 14>It's eight ninety five. When I need to raise my price,

0:44:08.200 --> 0:44:11.200
<v Speaker 14>it goes to nine ninety five. Psychological pricing. If you

0:44:11.280 --> 0:44:13.520
<v Speaker 14>price at eight fifty, you're leaving forty five cents on

0:44:13.560 --> 0:44:16.560
<v Speaker 14>the table every time. It means nothing at that point. So,

0:44:16.920 --> 0:44:20.680
<v Speaker 14>understanding these elements, I want to move you through boxing.

0:44:21.040 --> 0:44:23.160
<v Speaker 14>I'm going to move you to different menu items.

0:44:23.400 --> 0:44:23.760
<v Speaker 3>Wow.

0:44:23.840 --> 0:44:27.080
<v Speaker 14>So for example, waffle House is infusing a fifty I

0:44:27.080 --> 0:44:30.080
<v Speaker 14>would also run on eggs. I would run a special

0:44:30.080 --> 0:44:32.839
<v Speaker 14>on waffles because that doesn't use eggs. So I'm telling

0:44:32.880 --> 0:44:36.719
<v Speaker 14>my friends in the breakfast business, run pancake specials, run

0:44:36.920 --> 0:44:39.520
<v Speaker 14>corn beef hash specials. Do everything you can to move

0:44:39.560 --> 0:44:41.400
<v Speaker 14>the consumer away from the eggs construction.

0:44:41.640 --> 0:44:42.239
<v Speaker 12>And they can do that.

0:44:42.280 --> 0:44:44.640
<v Speaker 3>You didn't mention automation, which you see the chain's doing

0:44:44.760 --> 0:44:47.520
<v Speaker 3>a lot right now. Are are are mom and pop

0:44:47.640 --> 0:44:49.440
<v Speaker 3>shops able to use automation?

0:44:49.840 --> 0:44:51.240
<v Speaker 14>Well, you know, a lot of them are a little

0:44:51.239 --> 0:44:53.000
<v Speaker 14>intimidated by I tell you the truth, just like they're

0:44:53.040 --> 0:44:56.839
<v Speaker 14>intimidated by sophisticated accounting systems and stuff. My research tells

0:44:56.880 --> 0:44:59.920
<v Speaker 14>me that about seventy percent of the independent.

0:44:59.239 --> 0:45:01.279
<v Speaker 6>Operators don't have monthly p and ls.

0:45:02.440 --> 0:45:05.920
<v Speaker 14>So we're asking them to look at a capital investment

0:45:06.000 --> 0:45:09.399
<v Speaker 14>or a long term lease program, you know, to buy technology.

0:45:09.719 --> 0:45:13.439
<v Speaker 14>A little intimidating for them, so I find that they're

0:45:13.440 --> 0:45:15.600
<v Speaker 14>not as eager to move into it. And interestingly, if

0:45:15.640 --> 0:45:18.480
<v Speaker 14>you go to the restaurant convention the National Restaurant Association

0:45:18.920 --> 0:45:21.600
<v Speaker 14>five years ago, there may be two robotic boots. Now

0:45:21.600 --> 0:45:24.879
<v Speaker 14>there's probably close to one hundred robotic boots. Everything from

0:45:24.920 --> 0:45:27.839
<v Speaker 14>French fry robots to hamburger flipping robots, everything you.

0:45:27.760 --> 0:45:30.359
<v Speaker 3>Can possibly that, but mom and pops aren't doing that yet,

0:45:30.760 --> 0:45:33.440
<v Speaker 3>but you're going to have to do. And the Chipotle's

0:45:33.440 --> 0:45:36.480
<v Speaker 3>got you know, they've got the autocado with which helps

0:45:36.520 --> 0:45:40.160
<v Speaker 3>with peeling and you know, couring avocados and freeze people

0:45:40.239 --> 0:45:42.239
<v Speaker 3>up to do other things. But we're not we're not

0:45:42.239 --> 0:45:43.200
<v Speaker 3>seeing that yet from now.

0:45:43.440 --> 0:45:45.160
<v Speaker 14>I think McDonald's is one of the leaders in it,

0:45:45.200 --> 0:45:47.440
<v Speaker 14>in some of the robotic French fry equipment and such.

0:45:47.719 --> 0:45:49.320
<v Speaker 14>But certainly, you know, it costs a lot less, it

0:45:49.360 --> 0:45:51.840
<v Speaker 14>doesn't get sick, and it's the future of our industry.

0:45:51.840 --> 0:45:54.720
<v Speaker 14>And look, we're struggling with labor as you know still,

0:45:55.280 --> 0:45:57.359
<v Speaker 14>and we think that the no tax on tips might

0:45:57.400 --> 0:46:00.640
<v Speaker 14>really make a difference for us as an industry, really really.

0:46:00.400 --> 0:46:02.160
<v Speaker 3>Could solve that problem. I think it happens.

0:46:02.640 --> 0:46:04.319
<v Speaker 6>Oh, we think it's going to happen. Yeah, I believe

0:46:04.320 --> 0:46:04.960
<v Speaker 6>it's going to happen.

0:46:05.000 --> 0:46:06.560
<v Speaker 2>Why do you think it's a good idea because I

0:46:06.600 --> 0:46:08.480
<v Speaker 2>think for those of us who pay taxes on all

0:46:08.520 --> 0:46:11.920
<v Speaker 2>of our income or wondering, well, wait a minute, how

0:46:12.000 --> 0:46:13.960
<v Speaker 2>is that fair? And I guess the other side is

0:46:14.000 --> 0:46:17.520
<v Speaker 2>that let's pay those workers a living wage, and so

0:46:18.600 --> 0:46:21.479
<v Speaker 2>it's not you know, because I feel like increasingly we're

0:46:21.520 --> 0:46:22.920
<v Speaker 2>tipping everybody also.

0:46:22.680 --> 0:46:23.840
<v Speaker 3>Who declares their tips.

0:46:24.280 --> 0:46:25.920
<v Speaker 14>Well, I don't like it when I go into a

0:46:25.960 --> 0:46:29.319
<v Speaker 14>coffee store, yeah, and you know, I'm asked to tip

0:46:29.560 --> 0:46:30.080
<v Speaker 14>the batista.

0:46:30.160 --> 0:46:31.600
<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's a little out of line.

0:46:31.600 --> 0:46:32.000
<v Speaker 6>Sometimes.

0:46:32.360 --> 0:46:34.160
<v Speaker 14>I went to a dry cleaner the other day and

0:46:34.200 --> 0:46:35.759
<v Speaker 14>I went in to pick up my dry cleaning, and

0:46:35.760 --> 0:46:37.560
<v Speaker 14>it asked me if I wanted to tip the dry cleaning.

0:46:38.520 --> 0:46:41.000
<v Speaker 3>It's a little outrage now, every guy out of control.

0:46:41.920 --> 0:46:44.800
<v Speaker 2>So what you think within the hotel or the restaurant industry.

0:46:44.680 --> 0:46:46.600
<v Speaker 14>Let me tell you why. Because they get an employee

0:46:46.600 --> 0:46:49.319
<v Speaker 14>tip credit. So many in many states, they don't make

0:46:49.360 --> 0:46:51.520
<v Speaker 14>minimum wage. They make two and three dollars an hour.

0:46:51.719 --> 0:46:52.080
<v Speaker 12>No I know.

0:46:52.640 --> 0:46:56.000
<v Speaker 14>So by not tipping them on you, by not taxing

0:46:56.000 --> 0:46:57.880
<v Speaker 14>them on their tips, we're giving them a chance at

0:46:57.880 --> 0:46:58.840
<v Speaker 14>that living wage.

0:46:59.080 --> 0:47:03.719
<v Speaker 2>It's really important make the institution in the restaurant pay

0:47:03.760 --> 0:47:05.080
<v Speaker 2>them that living wage.

0:47:05.160 --> 0:47:06.200
<v Speaker 8>Why don't we do it there?

0:47:06.400 --> 0:47:07.840
<v Speaker 14>Well, we could do it there, but that's going to

0:47:07.880 --> 0:47:10.600
<v Speaker 14>increase costs. So if we look at inflation and those costs,

0:47:10.640 --> 0:47:12.799
<v Speaker 14>here's the problem in the restaurant industry. It's it's an

0:47:12.800 --> 0:47:16.920
<v Speaker 14>industry that we manage by percentage. Occupancy costs cannot exceed

0:47:16.960 --> 0:47:17.799
<v Speaker 14>twelve percent.

0:47:17.520 --> 0:47:19.800
<v Speaker 6>Of revenue every month or every year. It just cannot.

0:47:19.880 --> 0:47:22.480
<v Speaker 14>Okay, Labor costs cannot exceed thirty percent. I'm up to

0:47:22.520 --> 0:47:25.960
<v Speaker 14>forty five percent already. Yeah, food costs can exceed thirty percent.

0:47:25.960 --> 0:47:28.239
<v Speaker 14>I'm up to seventy five percent. Now I have my

0:47:28.320 --> 0:47:31.360
<v Speaker 14>ang my insurance, my utilities, all my other costs. I

0:47:31.400 --> 0:47:34.439
<v Speaker 14>have waste and supplies. By the time I move that up, guys,

0:47:34.480 --> 0:47:36.280
<v Speaker 14>I'm at twelve fifteen percent margins.

0:47:36.280 --> 0:47:36.919
<v Speaker 3>That's all I got.

0:47:37.000 --> 0:47:39.600
<v Speaker 2>But what if we didn't have tips? Like you know,

0:47:39.640 --> 0:47:41.279
<v Speaker 2>and I know who was it that tried to do it?

0:47:41.320 --> 0:47:41.480
<v Speaker 10>Here?

0:47:41.680 --> 0:47:42.399
<v Speaker 3>Was it Danny Meyer?

0:47:42.560 --> 0:47:43.239
<v Speaker 7>Was it Danny Meyer?

0:47:43.440 --> 0:47:44.640
<v Speaker 2>Tes tips?

0:47:44.680 --> 0:47:44.759
<v Speaker 3>Like?

0:47:44.800 --> 0:47:47.160
<v Speaker 2>Do you don't think we would think, Okay, I'm paying

0:47:47.160 --> 0:47:49.640
<v Speaker 2>more because I'm not tipping that that would make it

0:47:49.800 --> 0:47:51.600
<v Speaker 2>even it out and then possibly.

0:47:51.239 --> 0:47:53.360
<v Speaker 14>But there's some fear in that. As an operator, Okay,

0:47:53.440 --> 0:47:55.080
<v Speaker 14>you know, I have to educate the customer. And I

0:47:55.160 --> 0:47:57.040
<v Speaker 14>must tell you anytime somebody tells me I'm going to

0:47:57.080 --> 0:47:59.600
<v Speaker 14>start a business and educate the consumer, they tend not

0:47:59.640 --> 0:48:01.800
<v Speaker 14>to be very successful at it.

0:48:01.840 --> 0:48:04.040
<v Speaker 7>That's fair. That's fair type margins.

0:48:04.120 --> 0:48:05.720
<v Speaker 14>Also, I got to share with you that the restaurant

0:48:05.760 --> 0:48:10.040
<v Speaker 14>industry is the largest non government employer in America, and

0:48:10.080 --> 0:48:13.200
<v Speaker 14>when the restaurant industry hurts, America hurts. Right, There's a

0:48:13.239 --> 0:48:16.560
<v Speaker 14>lot of consumers work for us, So keeping that industry

0:48:16.600 --> 0:48:20.000
<v Speaker 14>healthy is our largest consumer, is very, very important. And

0:48:20.040 --> 0:48:22.920
<v Speaker 14>I look at the buyouts the car companies have gotten

0:48:23.120 --> 0:48:25.800
<v Speaker 14>and other industries have gotten. The restaurant industry hasn't gotten that.

0:48:26.200 --> 0:48:29.480
<v Speaker 14>So I think providing this relief makes sense for that industry.

0:48:30.080 --> 0:48:31.920
<v Speaker 14>Of course, I'm an advocate for it, but I do.

0:48:32.120 --> 0:48:34.440
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Johnny, you mentioned the no tax on tips as

0:48:34.520 --> 0:48:37.880
<v Speaker 3>one of the policies forthcoming from this administration. How are

0:48:37.920 --> 0:48:40.680
<v Speaker 3>you looking at other policies in terms of growth, in

0:48:40.760 --> 0:48:44.480
<v Speaker 3>terms of helping the restaurant industry, in terms of potentially

0:48:44.640 --> 0:48:47.040
<v Speaker 3>hurting the restaurant industry if prices go up as a

0:48:47.040 --> 0:48:50.239
<v Speaker 3>result of tariffs and people have less disposable income, how

0:48:50.239 --> 0:48:51.640
<v Speaker 3>are you looking at what's coming out of Washington.

0:48:51.680 --> 0:48:53.120
<v Speaker 6>I mean, I've done a lot of work on tariffs.

0:48:53.280 --> 0:48:54.920
<v Speaker 14>I've read a lot of white papers, and I've really

0:48:54.960 --> 0:48:56.719
<v Speaker 14>tried to do my homework on it. And it's tough

0:48:56.760 --> 0:48:58.879
<v Speaker 14>to come down with a hard position on knowing how

0:48:58.880 --> 0:49:00.920
<v Speaker 14>it's really going to have an impact. I look at

0:49:00.920 --> 0:49:03.360
<v Speaker 14>it this way. A German car company is charging a

0:49:03.360 --> 0:49:06.120
<v Speaker 14>Germany's charging US ten percent tariff to bring our cars there.

0:49:06.200 --> 0:49:08.560
<v Speaker 14>We're charging two and a half percent. Well, let's say

0:49:08.560 --> 0:49:10.800
<v Speaker 14>we bumped that two and a half percent to ten percent.

0:49:11.080 --> 0:49:13.480
<v Speaker 14>So now the German car comes into America at a

0:49:13.520 --> 0:49:16.480
<v Speaker 14>base cost point in theory ten percent higher than an

0:49:16.520 --> 0:49:20.520
<v Speaker 14>American competitor. They can't compete that way, so they're going

0:49:20.600 --> 0:49:23.520
<v Speaker 14>to have to make adjustments and distribution and operating costs

0:49:23.520 --> 0:49:26.360
<v Speaker 14>in some way to be competitive again. So it's hard

0:49:26.400 --> 0:49:29.120
<v Speaker 14>for me to accept that every tariff that ten points

0:49:29.160 --> 0:49:31.359
<v Speaker 14>is going to make it to our pockets. I think

0:49:31.360 --> 0:49:34.000
<v Speaker 14>there's competitive influences and a whole bunch of factors that

0:49:34.080 --> 0:49:36.320
<v Speaker 14>play apart. And then we could BMW they built the

0:49:36.320 --> 0:49:37.799
<v Speaker 14>factory in America. We can tell you what they built

0:49:37.800 --> 0:49:39.839
<v Speaker 14>the factory in America. So I think that we have

0:49:39.880 --> 0:49:41.520
<v Speaker 14>to look at this as a longer play.

0:49:41.760 --> 0:49:43.560
<v Speaker 3>Well, look at Ford and GM. They built cars in

0:49:43.560 --> 0:49:46.640
<v Speaker 3>Canada and Mexico, and then they'll get hit with tariffs

0:49:46.640 --> 0:49:48.439
<v Speaker 3>when they bring those cars in and when the car

0:49:48.480 --> 0:49:51.200
<v Speaker 3>components cross the border multiple times as a result of

0:49:51.200 --> 0:49:52.280
<v Speaker 3>the manufacturing process.

0:49:52.400 --> 0:49:53.919
<v Speaker 14>It's but I would say, you know who was sitting

0:49:53.920 --> 0:49:56.720
<v Speaker 14>at who's controlling our government? And we allowed Ford Motor

0:49:56.760 --> 0:49:59.640
<v Speaker 14>Company to start building plants in Canada and Mexico, why

0:49:59.680 --> 0:50:02.839
<v Speaker 14>didn't we incentivize them to build them here? Then? So

0:50:03.280 --> 0:50:05.640
<v Speaker 14>now I think we're backing into it. We have these

0:50:05.680 --> 0:50:08.960
<v Speaker 14>these international companies that we want to make residents.

0:50:09.040 --> 0:50:11.440
<v Speaker 2>Well, some of it is like, you know, the globalization

0:50:11.600 --> 0:50:14.080
<v Speaker 2>right of our world, and right, so we've got allies,

0:50:14.120 --> 0:50:16.720
<v Speaker 2>and we've got alliances, and we invest in your country

0:50:16.760 --> 0:50:18.759
<v Speaker 2>and you invest in our country. Right, That's kind of

0:50:18.760 --> 0:50:21.120
<v Speaker 2>how it's all happened. Is it bad if we kind

0:50:21.160 --> 0:50:22.000
<v Speaker 2>of back off.

0:50:21.840 --> 0:50:22.920
<v Speaker 8>Of all of that in your view?

0:50:23.080 --> 0:50:24.799
<v Speaker 14>I don't know if we're backing off on all of that.

0:50:24.960 --> 0:50:27.920
<v Speaker 14>Is understanding that in the post COVID world, every country

0:50:27.960 --> 0:50:30.840
<v Speaker 14>is in a different economic place. Today, it's a different

0:50:30.920 --> 0:50:34.200
<v Speaker 14>we're talking about environment, there's a very different environment now.

0:50:34.200 --> 0:50:37.439
<v Speaker 14>America is operating at a significant deficit with significant debt.

0:50:38.040 --> 0:50:41.080
<v Speaker 6>We have to fix this. The world knows we have

0:50:41.160 --> 0:50:41.719
<v Speaker 6>to fix it.

0:50:41.840 --> 0:50:43.759
<v Speaker 3>The world doesn't want us to cave in. We're the

0:50:43.840 --> 0:50:46.840
<v Speaker 3>largest marketplace in the world. So it seems to me

0:50:47.000 --> 0:50:48.319
<v Speaker 3>that the world.

0:50:48.280 --> 0:50:51.080
<v Speaker 14>Has to accept that these changes have to be made

0:50:51.560 --> 0:50:54.200
<v Speaker 14>to eliminate the deficits that we all have to make

0:50:54.280 --> 0:50:57.040
<v Speaker 14>us all healthy. So can we do this together in

0:50:57.080 --> 0:50:59.319
<v Speaker 14>a constructive way. That's what remains to be seen to me.

0:50:59.480 --> 0:51:02.920
<v Speaker 3>What about your world at the bar world where tariffs

0:51:02.920 --> 0:51:07.240
<v Speaker 3>could affect the liquor market Mexican tequila, which coming from Canada.

0:51:07.120 --> 0:51:07.799
<v Speaker 6>That concerns me.

0:51:08.400 --> 0:51:11.719
<v Speaker 14>But you know that Mexican tequila needs to compete, you

0:51:11.719 --> 0:51:13.799
<v Speaker 14>know with other brands and other products. I don't have

0:51:13.840 --> 0:51:15.800
<v Speaker 14>to sell as much tequila. I can move my menu

0:51:15.840 --> 0:51:18.560
<v Speaker 14>and sell more bourbon. So you know, we do have

0:51:18.640 --> 0:51:21.319
<v Speaker 14>options in the industry. And I think that the marketplace

0:51:21.400 --> 0:51:23.480
<v Speaker 14>is a challenge. The liquor industry is in the toilet

0:51:23.600 --> 0:51:26.080
<v Speaker 14>right now, so the marketplace is a challenge for them.

0:51:26.120 --> 0:51:27.719
<v Speaker 14>I think they need to be aggressive and I don't

0:51:27.719 --> 0:51:29.600
<v Speaker 14>think they're going to allow a tariff to take them down.

0:51:29.719 --> 0:51:32.720
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, increasingly, and just there's a lot of interesting dynamics

0:51:32.960 --> 0:51:33.719
<v Speaker 2>on the and the liquor.

0:51:33.920 --> 0:51:34.600
<v Speaker 6>I'm not saying I.

0:51:34.560 --> 0:51:35.920
<v Speaker 14>Know this to be a fact, but this is just

0:51:35.960 --> 0:51:37.680
<v Speaker 14>how I feel about this. I think time will tell

0:51:37.719 --> 0:51:38.240
<v Speaker 14>on well.

0:51:38.320 --> 0:51:39.200
<v Speaker 7>In terms of policies.

0:51:39.200 --> 0:51:41.640
<v Speaker 2>You talked about, you know, a shortage of workers in

0:51:41.719 --> 0:51:45.240
<v Speaker 2>terms of immigration, and I know there's illegal versus legal,

0:51:45.280 --> 0:51:48.759
<v Speaker 2>but you know, the hospitality industry got really hurt, you know,

0:51:48.760 --> 0:51:51.720
<v Speaker 2>after the pandemic, a lot of people left that industry.

0:51:51.320 --> 0:51:53.240
<v Speaker 7>Found better jobs, better paying jobs.

0:51:53.600 --> 0:51:54.800
<v Speaker 8>What's your view on immigration.

0:51:55.239 --> 0:51:57.960
<v Speaker 14>Well, I think legal immigration is important, but I think

0:51:57.960 --> 0:51:59.520
<v Speaker 14>we need immigrants to come in. First of all, I

0:51:59.520 --> 0:52:01.279
<v Speaker 14>don't want to hire somebody who I can't do a

0:52:01.320 --> 0:52:02.120
<v Speaker 14>background check on.

0:52:02.600 --> 0:52:03.200
<v Speaker 3>I can't do that.

0:52:03.239 --> 0:52:03.839
<v Speaker 6>There's too much.

0:52:03.800 --> 0:52:06.960
<v Speaker 14>Liability today, especially in the hotel industry, So I have

0:52:07.000 --> 0:52:09.000
<v Speaker 14>to hire people that I can do background checks on

0:52:09.800 --> 0:52:12.399
<v Speaker 14>that I can have confidence in hiring them, that they're safe,

0:52:12.400 --> 0:52:15.279
<v Speaker 14>they're not thieves, my employees are safe, etc. And right

0:52:15.320 --> 0:52:17.719
<v Speaker 14>now we don't have that. So when I look at

0:52:17.719 --> 0:52:19.880
<v Speaker 14>the immigrants, the illegal immigrants that have come across that

0:52:19.920 --> 0:52:22.880
<v Speaker 14>I can track their background, they have no value to me. Interesting,

0:52:22.880 --> 0:52:24.720
<v Speaker 14>I'm not sure there are of much value to America

0:52:24.760 --> 0:52:26.239
<v Speaker 14>if we can't track their backgrounds.

0:52:26.600 --> 0:52:30.080
<v Speaker 3>I would say that someone might push back and say, well,

0:52:30.160 --> 0:52:33.840
<v Speaker 3>if there's fewer people to do the labor that illegal

0:52:33.840 --> 0:52:36.880
<v Speaker 3>immigrants do right now, that might pull from your labor

0:52:37.000 --> 0:52:39.960
<v Speaker 3>labor force of legal immigrants working at restaurants and then

0:52:40.000 --> 0:52:41.839
<v Speaker 3>cause your cost to go hire.

0:52:42.000 --> 0:52:44.320
<v Speaker 14>Well, I didn't use the term. I'm trying to focus

0:52:44.360 --> 0:52:47.160
<v Speaker 14>on criminals. There are legal immigrants that do have backgrounds,

0:52:47.200 --> 0:52:49.120
<v Speaker 14>and you can verify who they are. I don't have

0:52:49.160 --> 0:52:50.920
<v Speaker 14>an issue with that. I have an issue with the

0:52:50.960 --> 0:52:53.839
<v Speaker 14>criminals or the people whose backgrounds we can check. The

0:52:53.840 --> 0:52:56.520
<v Speaker 14>ones that have gang tattoos, etc. They're of no use

0:52:56.560 --> 0:53:00.280
<v Speaker 14>to the hospitality industry, So that doesn't solve our problem.

0:53:00.320 --> 0:53:02.960
<v Speaker 14>The good ones do. The ones that have backgrounds that

0:53:03.080 --> 0:53:04.280
<v Speaker 14>came here with well good.

0:53:05.280 --> 0:53:07.200
<v Speaker 2>Whoever comes in like, You've got to make sure you

0:53:07.239 --> 0:53:08.080
<v Speaker 2>understand exactly.

0:53:08.120 --> 0:53:09.759
<v Speaker 14>So we have to understand the people that come here

0:53:09.800 --> 0:53:12.560
<v Speaker 14>with good intentions could be valuable contributors to our society.

0:53:12.640 --> 0:53:15.000
<v Speaker 7>Twenty seconds tune in. What is that about?

0:53:15.280 --> 0:53:17.680
<v Speaker 14>Oh, you know, I'm doing a small business radio show.

0:53:18.040 --> 0:53:20.520
<v Speaker 14>You know, with all my experience in dealing with failure

0:53:20.520 --> 0:53:22.719
<v Speaker 14>and the things I have new entrepreneurs, I want to

0:53:22.760 --> 0:53:23.279
<v Speaker 14>talk to them.

0:53:23.640 --> 0:53:28.399
<v Speaker 3>You know, entrepreneurs want to slow your role.

0:53:28.800 --> 0:53:29.640
<v Speaker 8>I want to help out you.

0:53:29.760 --> 0:53:30.040
<v Speaker 5>We do.

0:53:30.400 --> 0:53:32.120
<v Speaker 14>It's a way for well, you guys are doing it

0:53:32.120 --> 0:53:34.239
<v Speaker 14>in a little more sophisticated. I want to really help

0:53:34.280 --> 0:53:37.280
<v Speaker 14>those small entrepreneurs, those people starting out in those family businesses.

0:53:37.280 --> 0:53:40.960
<v Speaker 2>There's so many out there. John Taffer, congratulations on a

0:53:41.040 --> 0:53:44.040
<v Speaker 2>tenth season. So appreciate you coming in, of course, executive

0:53:44.040 --> 0:53:45.320
<v Speaker 2>producer of Bar Rescue.

0:53:45.360 --> 0:53:46.480
<v Speaker 8>This is Bloomberg.

0:53:47.840 --> 0:53:48.240
<v Speaker 15>Mac.

0:53:48.880 --> 0:53:49.879
<v Speaker 2>How about you let me drive?

0:53:50.120 --> 0:53:54.880
<v Speaker 3>Oh no, no, no no, this is not a toy.

0:53:55.080 --> 0:53:56.640
<v Speaker 12>Please, I'll do the grave.

0:53:58.040 --> 0:53:58.799
<v Speaker 3>I want to drive.

0:54:01.000 --> 0:54:01.920
<v Speaker 4>It's a good question.

0:54:05.800 --> 0:54:07.800
<v Speaker 3>This is the drive to the clothes.

0:54:07.880 --> 0:54:10.520
<v Speaker 15>Now plums for me a thing well, driver, Kelvin.

0:54:10.320 --> 0:54:12.160
<v Speaker 3>Don on Bloomberg Radio.

0:54:12.480 --> 0:54:13.360
<v Speaker 7>Right, TikTok, everybody.

0:54:13.400 --> 0:54:15.840
<v Speaker 2>About eighteen minutes left here in the trading session. You

0:54:15.920 --> 0:54:18.040
<v Speaker 2>just started Bill Maloney breaking down the trade for you

0:54:18.160 --> 0:54:20.880
<v Speaker 2>on this Thursday, and we've got stocks hovering near their

0:54:20.960 --> 0:54:23.799
<v Speaker 2>highs of the session. So we are definitely seeing a

0:54:23.880 --> 0:54:25.759
<v Speaker 2>rally underway. Up about one percent on the S and

0:54:25.760 --> 0:54:28.320
<v Speaker 2>P five hundred just to recap now's T one hundred.

0:54:28.600 --> 0:54:30.240
<v Speaker 2>We are looking at a gain of about one point

0:54:30.280 --> 0:54:32.920
<v Speaker 2>two percent. We've seen stocks move up today. We have

0:54:33.120 --> 0:54:36.120
<v Speaker 2>seen yields back off right now. That ten year note

0:54:36.160 --> 0:54:38.960
<v Speaker 2>with the yield of four fifty two that despite two

0:54:38.960 --> 0:54:42.759
<v Speaker 2>hot inflation prints. But the expectation is some of those components,

0:54:42.800 --> 0:54:46.400
<v Speaker 2>the PPI components that go into the PCE that I

0:54:46.400 --> 0:54:49.759
<v Speaker 2>think the expectation is that that number, that inflation print,

0:54:49.760 --> 0:54:52.799
<v Speaker 2>which is the Fed's preferred inflation print, will actually trend low.

0:54:52.920 --> 0:54:54.359
<v Speaker 3>You just got to peel back the layers and look

0:54:54.400 --> 0:54:56.360
<v Speaker 3>at exactly what moved it, right, and then plug that

0:54:56.440 --> 0:54:59.080
<v Speaker 3>into inflation prints. All I do is I look at

0:54:59.080 --> 0:55:01.680
<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg terminal tell me everything. Hey, let's see what

0:55:01.719 --> 0:55:03.920
<v Speaker 3>Ben Cook has to say about this. He's portfolio manager

0:55:03.920 --> 0:55:07.040
<v Speaker 3>of the Hennessy Energy Transition Fund.

0:55:07.239 --> 0:55:07.399
<v Speaker 6>Ben.

0:55:07.440 --> 0:55:10.120
<v Speaker 3>Good to have you with us. The Hennessy Energy Transition Fund.

0:55:10.160 --> 0:55:12.719
<v Speaker 3>It's returned, according to our own data here at Bloomberg,

0:55:13.040 --> 0:55:15.520
<v Speaker 3>eighteen point five to four percent annually for the last

0:55:15.560 --> 0:55:18.080
<v Speaker 3>five years, and to perform the index and most peers.

0:55:18.080 --> 0:55:22.280
<v Speaker 3>It puts it in this seventy eighth percentile among its peers.

0:55:22.480 --> 0:55:28.600
<v Speaker 3>Has some very familiar energy names at the top Exon Mobile, Schneer, EQT, Conico, Phillips, Chevron,

0:55:28.960 --> 0:55:31.640
<v Speaker 3>and more. Thanks so much for joining us. How are you.

0:55:32.680 --> 0:55:34.239
<v Speaker 15>I'm doing great, Tim, Thanks for having me.

0:55:34.320 --> 0:55:36.880
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so let's start on energy and just talk to

0:55:36.880 --> 0:55:39.879
<v Speaker 3>you a little bit about the Trump administration and what

0:55:39.920 --> 0:55:43.560
<v Speaker 3>you see as sort of the next catalyst for energy

0:55:43.560 --> 0:55:46.880
<v Speaker 3>production here in the US, it does seem like the

0:55:46.920 --> 0:55:50.680
<v Speaker 3>president isn't necessarily a one hundred percent aligned with what

0:55:50.760 --> 0:55:55.040
<v Speaker 3>the producers want to do when it comes to drilling

0:55:55.800 --> 0:55:56.839
<v Speaker 3>thread that needle for us.

0:55:58.280 --> 0:56:00.320
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, I think that's an accurate way to discrib But

0:56:00.880 --> 0:56:05.120
<v Speaker 16>obviously the shareholders today are driving the decisions by management

0:56:05.160 --> 0:56:09.680
<v Speaker 16>teams to allocate capital in a way that is friendly

0:56:09.719 --> 0:56:14.319
<v Speaker 16>to shareholders and not necessarily geared towards growth. So as

0:56:14.440 --> 0:56:16.920
<v Speaker 16>much as the current administration would like to see the

0:56:17.000 --> 0:56:22.560
<v Speaker 16>industry ramped drilling and drill baby drills, as Trump often says,

0:56:22.600 --> 0:56:26.240
<v Speaker 16>the reality is is that those capital allocation decisions, again,

0:56:26.320 --> 0:56:29.560
<v Speaker 16>are are being driven by companies that are answering to

0:56:29.600 --> 0:56:32.000
<v Speaker 16>shareholders who like to see the return of capital.

0:56:32.760 --> 0:56:33.360
<v Speaker 15>Proposition.

0:56:33.640 --> 0:56:35.680
<v Speaker 3>Does that change if energy prices go higher?

0:56:37.560 --> 0:56:40.800
<v Speaker 16>You know, I think that there's a potential incentive obviously

0:56:40.880 --> 0:56:44.680
<v Speaker 16>to increase activity if prices go higher. But again, in

0:56:44.760 --> 0:56:49.280
<v Speaker 16>terms of capital allo allocation priorities, the industry has gotten

0:56:49.360 --> 0:56:52.840
<v Speaker 16>very comfortable with the primary focus being a return of

0:56:53.200 --> 0:56:55.680
<v Speaker 16>capital to investors in the form of dividends and shary

0:56:55.719 --> 0:56:58.960
<v Speaker 16>purchases and then of course managing drilling budgets.

0:56:59.480 --> 0:57:01.880
<v Speaker 15>Ultimately, you know, I think we'd have to see a

0:57:01.960 --> 0:57:03.480
<v Speaker 15>continued commitment.

0:57:03.040 --> 0:57:05.840
<v Speaker 16>To the return to capital and a price level that

0:57:05.880 --> 0:57:10.000
<v Speaker 16>would be adequate enough to not only deliver that shareholder

0:57:10.040 --> 0:57:13.560
<v Speaker 16>return but also provide incremental cash flow that could be

0:57:13.600 --> 0:57:14.840
<v Speaker 16>redirected towards drilling.

0:57:15.320 --> 0:57:15.600
<v Speaker 12>Well.

0:57:15.640 --> 0:57:18.040
<v Speaker 2>But and again it's a balance, right, You're not going

0:57:18.080 --> 0:57:22.320
<v Speaker 2>to have these major integrated oil companies and everybody in

0:57:22.360 --> 0:57:24.240
<v Speaker 2>the energy sector go out and drill if it doesn't

0:57:24.240 --> 0:57:28.680
<v Speaker 2>make financial sense. Right, There is a business formula dynamic, right,

0:57:28.760 --> 0:57:30.720
<v Speaker 2>in terms of what it's going to cost to get

0:57:30.720 --> 0:57:33.960
<v Speaker 2>that oil out of the ground and then ultimately what

0:57:33.960 --> 0:57:35.560
<v Speaker 2>they can sell it for or if they expect to

0:57:35.560 --> 0:57:37.800
<v Speaker 2>be selling you know, selling it for by the time

0:57:37.840 --> 0:57:39.840
<v Speaker 2>they get it out of the ground. So there's it's

0:57:39.880 --> 0:57:42.480
<v Speaker 2>not so simple as just drill baby, drill us.

0:57:42.560 --> 0:57:42.760
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:57:44.120 --> 0:57:45.160
<v Speaker 15>No, that's exactly right.

0:57:45.240 --> 0:57:47.600
<v Speaker 16>I mean, the business has gotten very efficient over the

0:57:47.640 --> 0:57:50.920
<v Speaker 16>last you know, call it five ten years. The development

0:57:50.960 --> 0:57:53.840
<v Speaker 16>of shale resource here in the United States has benefited

0:57:53.840 --> 0:57:58.920
<v Speaker 16>from them provements in technology. Companies are continued to develop

0:58:00.120 --> 0:58:04.440
<v Speaker 16>complete the drilling, the completion process has become more efficient.

0:58:04.480 --> 0:58:07.320
<v Speaker 16>These companies are doing more with less and they're they're uh,

0:58:07.440 --> 0:58:10.320
<v Speaker 16>they're achieving cost savings as well. And so you know,

0:58:10.320 --> 0:58:13.840
<v Speaker 16>the industry has become very resilient and generally in the

0:58:13.880 --> 0:58:16.640
<v Speaker 16>in the more attractive shale place as have they've reduced

0:58:16.680 --> 0:58:19.640
<v Speaker 16>the let's call it the the development.

0:58:19.120 --> 0:58:20.040
<v Speaker 15>Cost per barrel.

0:58:20.440 --> 0:58:23.600
<v Speaker 16>So the profit margin potentially, you know, with a lower

0:58:23.600 --> 0:58:27.120
<v Speaker 16>price could remain the same. But again it's the profit. Uh,

0:58:27.280 --> 0:58:30.560
<v Speaker 16>it's the motive by the companies to return capital to investors.

0:58:30.600 --> 0:58:32.840
<v Speaker 15>I think that is the primary objective going forward.

0:58:33.320 --> 0:58:36.960
<v Speaker 3>How are you looking at potential tariffs on Canada specifically

0:58:37.040 --> 0:58:41.000
<v Speaker 3>with regard to energy, How does that uh work in

0:58:41.120 --> 0:58:44.960
<v Speaker 3>your world of these energy companies that you follow, because

0:58:44.960 --> 0:58:47.320
<v Speaker 3>a lot of that oil comes to the US.

0:58:48.920 --> 0:58:50.120
<v Speaker 15>Yeah, sure, it sure does.

0:58:50.160 --> 0:58:52.320
<v Speaker 16>I mean, you know, over four million barrels a day

0:58:52.400 --> 0:58:55.160
<v Speaker 16>is imported into the United States from Canada, and it

0:58:55.280 --> 0:59:00.160
<v Speaker 16>certainly is a meaningful contributor to the refining appetite for

0:59:00.200 --> 0:59:03.880
<v Speaker 16>crude oil in the Midwest. Yeah, you know, it's it's

0:59:03.920 --> 0:59:07.160
<v Speaker 16>not clear though that an immediate you know, uptick and

0:59:07.240 --> 0:59:11.240
<v Speaker 16>pricing will be fully borne by the US consumer. Consumer

0:59:11.280 --> 0:59:14.240
<v Speaker 16>behavior ultimately will determine how much of that increase and

0:59:14.280 --> 0:59:17.200
<v Speaker 16>that that tear for the imposition of that taxi will

0:59:17.200 --> 0:59:20.840
<v Speaker 16>affect the price here in the US. We could potentially

0:59:20.880 --> 0:59:24.640
<v Speaker 16>see the US refining industry, particularly in the Midwest, a

0:59:24.680 --> 0:59:28.120
<v Speaker 16>resort to switching to supplies from the Rocky Mountain region

0:59:28.200 --> 0:59:31.200
<v Speaker 16>or even the bock and shale region. So that's a possibility.

0:59:31.480 --> 0:59:34.640
<v Speaker 16>You know, on the other side of the border, Canadian

0:59:34.680 --> 0:59:36.600
<v Speaker 16>producers could lower their price as well.

0:59:36.640 --> 0:59:38.600
<v Speaker 15>So you know, in terms of.

0:59:38.560 --> 0:59:41.600
<v Speaker 16>Tariffs, whether it's Canada or you know, our Asia of

0:59:42.000 --> 0:59:44.400
<v Speaker 16>training partners there, it really have to look at it

0:59:44.440 --> 0:59:45.960
<v Speaker 16>on a country by country basis.

0:59:46.600 --> 0:59:46.800
<v Speaker 15>You know.

0:59:47.200 --> 0:59:49.480
<v Speaker 3>The President said just in the last couple of hours

0:59:49.520 --> 0:59:51.800
<v Speaker 3>from the Oval Office, Canada will be a very interesting

0:59:51.800 --> 0:59:55.160
<v Speaker 3>situation because we just don't need their product, and yet

0:59:55.160 --> 0:59:57.680
<v Speaker 3>they survive off the fact that ninety five percent of

0:59:57.720 --> 1:00:01.160
<v Speaker 3>what they do Canada. Then he goes on to talk

1:00:01.200 --> 1:00:03.680
<v Speaker 3>about taxes in the fifty first state, But do you

1:00:03.800 --> 1:00:07.960
<v Speaker 3>agree with him that we don't need their product.

1:00:10.080 --> 1:00:12.120
<v Speaker 16>Well, at the end of the day, you know, trade

1:00:12.160 --> 1:00:15.800
<v Speaker 16>relationships are are important obviously for a variety of reasons,

1:00:15.800 --> 1:00:17.280
<v Speaker 16>and I think you know, there's there's a lot of

1:00:17.360 --> 1:00:21.480
<v Speaker 16>negotiating tactic that's embedded in these these tariff headlines that

1:00:21.480 --> 1:00:25.840
<v Speaker 16>we're continuing to see. Could we switch away fully away

1:00:25.840 --> 1:00:28.240
<v Speaker 16>from you know, four million barrels a day of imported

1:00:28.320 --> 1:00:33.040
<v Speaker 16>crew product from Canada immediately? I suppose we potentially could

1:00:33.080 --> 1:00:34.960
<v Speaker 16>over the long term. It would come at a cost,

1:00:35.880 --> 1:00:39.480
<v Speaker 16>but the point remains, you know, I think it's the

1:00:39.520 --> 1:00:43.320
<v Speaker 16>Canadian volumes coming into the United States are very important

1:00:43.320 --> 1:00:46.880
<v Speaker 16>for our refining industry, and you know, it would be

1:00:47.200 --> 1:00:50.120
<v Speaker 16>likely a difficult transition for us to make to fully

1:00:50.160 --> 1:00:51.360
<v Speaker 16>switch away from that crude.

1:00:52.360 --> 1:00:57.400
<v Speaker 2>I'm curious since it is an energy transition fund, and

1:00:57.680 --> 1:01:00.840
<v Speaker 2>I did see the biggest utility in Virginia, home to

1:01:00.840 --> 1:01:03.600
<v Speaker 2>the Global Hotspot Data Center Alley, so I demand from

1:01:03.680 --> 1:01:06.320
<v Speaker 2>data centers and development almost double in the last half

1:01:06.360 --> 1:01:10.160
<v Speaker 2>of twenty twenty four. So I do wonder about how

1:01:10.240 --> 1:01:14.440
<v Speaker 2>you are thinking about the AI play in particular. Certainly

1:01:14.480 --> 1:01:17.680
<v Speaker 2>some questions came to the forefront after deep Sea came

1:01:17.680 --> 1:01:20.240
<v Speaker 2>out a few weeks ago and just looked like it

1:01:20.280 --> 1:01:24.680
<v Speaker 2>could do AI a model comparable to potentially chat cheapt

1:01:25.040 --> 1:01:28.720
<v Speaker 2>but less expensive and not requiring necessarily all of the

1:01:28.880 --> 1:01:31.760
<v Speaker 2>energy just got about thirty seconds. Are you rethinking that

1:01:31.960 --> 1:01:33.440
<v Speaker 2>and the impact that could have on some of the

1:01:33.560 --> 1:01:34.280
<v Speaker 2>energy players.

1:01:35.720 --> 1:01:37.400
<v Speaker 15>No, not rethinking that today, Caroly.

1:01:37.400 --> 1:01:39.160
<v Speaker 16>You know, the reality is what we're hearing from the

1:01:39.200 --> 1:01:42.400
<v Speaker 16>companies across the natural gas value chain, whether it's producers

1:01:42.720 --> 1:01:47.640
<v Speaker 16>of midstream operators or even the utilities themselves, is the

1:01:47.760 --> 1:01:51.280
<v Speaker 16>demand for data center build out, ultimately the natural gas

1:01:51.280 --> 1:01:55.080
<v Speaker 16>that will power the power generation needed to fuel those

1:01:55.160 --> 1:01:58.840
<v Speaker 16>data centers. It's a very significant growth driver, and we'll

1:01:58.880 --> 1:02:02.480
<v Speaker 16>continue to see very impressive growth rates in the electric

1:02:02.560 --> 1:02:06.160
<v Speaker 16>utility industry over the balance of the decade. We'll likely

1:02:06.200 --> 1:02:08.560
<v Speaker 16>see growth rates and electric demand on the order of

1:02:08.560 --> 1:02:11.640
<v Speaker 16>a percent and a half per year, which compares very

1:02:11.680 --> 1:02:14.280
<v Speaker 16>well relative to last ten fifteen years, a roughly flat

1:02:14.880 --> 1:02:17.840
<v Speaker 16>electric demand growth. So the trend is very strong. Don't

1:02:17.840 --> 1:02:20.480
<v Speaker 16>see any reason to believe that's not going to continue.

1:02:20.560 --> 1:02:21.200
<v Speaker 7>All right, got it?

1:02:21.240 --> 1:02:23.640
<v Speaker 2>Bred, Thank you so much. Ben Cook, portfolio manager at

1:02:23.640 --> 1:02:26.440
<v Speaker 2>the Hennessy Energy Transition Fund, joining us from Dallas, Texas.

1:02:26.440 --> 1:02:27.080
<v Speaker 8>Do not go anywhere.

1:02:27.120 --> 1:02:30.520
<v Speaker 2>We're counting you down to the clothes on this Thursday.

1:02:30.560 --> 1:02:35.680
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