1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast. 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go. 3 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 3: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five fifty. 4 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 1: And the Chicks block the college football world stundus, Oh 5 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: my goodness, plea stumbled and football the lateral turn a 6 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:34,919 Speaker 1: corner on the inside, don't you the lad table off 7 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: the veil of the night. 8 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 4: It's not the sides of the dog in the fight. 9 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 3: It's the side of the fight in the hall. 10 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 4: What's up the general nation? 11 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,919 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by 12 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 3: Bett MGM. This is the college football preseason betting recap show. 13 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 3: I'm stucky in joining me as always is Colin Wilson. 14 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,400 Speaker 3: We are less than a week away. I can smell 15 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 3: football in the air. 16 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 2: Be excited, brother, I mean, we do this Best Bets 17 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 2: Podcast and then we get to turn our full attention 18 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: to New Mexico State, U Mass and Florida International. It's glorious. 19 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 2: It's like a rush of adrenaline going through my body, 20 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 2: like I cannot wait. We're there. We're finally made it there. 21 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 4: Yes, we will have. 22 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 3: By the way, we'll have our Week zero betting preview 23 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 3: live on Thursday we'll record that Wednesday night, so it'll 24 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 3: be up for you guys on Thursday. Spoiler alert for 25 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 3: the trash segment, I will be talking about you mass, 26 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 3: who I already bet and logged in the app and 27 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 3: got a number of messages of how excited. Some are 28 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 3: dread but yeah, there's nothing like starting off the season 29 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 3: a few mass But more on that in the Week 30 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 3: zero episode. Today, we will go through every conference and 31 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 3: give one or two of our best bets, and if 32 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 3: you want to just mention a couple others, great. We 33 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:11,519 Speaker 3: have a ton of content out on the Action Network 34 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 3: at an Actionnework dot com and if you missed any 35 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 3: of our pre season conference previews, make sure you check 36 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,519 Speaker 3: those out. Colin I did the Power Five two episodes 37 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 3: for the SEC, one for each division, and our Mike 38 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 3: and Mike crew hosted the Group of Five and either 39 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 3: Colin or I joined for each of those episodes, so 40 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 3: make sure. 41 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 4: You check those out. 42 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 3: Today we'll we'll only talk about the our favorites that 43 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 3: based on you know, updated information and updated market movement 44 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 3: that we still like. Later in the show, we will 45 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 3: also hear from the aforementioned Mike and Mike to get 46 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 3: their best bets in the group of five before we 47 00:02:55,720 --> 00:03:01,359 Speaker 3: then add though at our thoughts on. So let's kick 48 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 3: things off. Let's start with I mean, I guess we 49 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 3: can go ACC, so alphabetical here. I'll get the Boston 50 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 3: College in a second in the over I don't want 51 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 3: to forget them again, so I wanted to just throw 52 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 3: that out there right away to remind myself and to 53 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 3: shout out BC. 54 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 4: But what do you want to mention in the ACC. 55 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 2: I think maybe you and I have a disagreement on 56 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 2: who's going to win this conference, this two man race. 57 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 2: I like Clemson in this case, I love Garrett Riley 58 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 2: is the higher Clemson out there. Plus three fifty ish 59 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 2: plus three hundred is where I'd stop buying for them 60 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 2: to make the playoff. It's one thing to win the 61 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 2: conference where they're in a complete race with Florida State 62 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 2: almost nobody else. I mean, maybe Louisville with that trash 63 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 2: schedule can make it to the championship game, considering they 64 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 2: dodge both Clemson in Florida State. But I'm going to 65 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 2: go a step farther. I like this nice juicy odds on. 66 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 2: I mean, whoever wins between Clemson and Florida State more than 67 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 2: likely going to College Football playoff. Clemson schedule is soft 68 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 2: enough where they can take a loss to Floria State 69 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 2: during the season, win the ACC Championship game, and still 70 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 2: go to the playoffs. So I'm gonna take them plus 71 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 2: three fifty on the Tigers. It's a lot of faith 72 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 2: in Garrett Riley. If if Dabo is finally stepping out 73 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 2: and not recruiting from within and he goes against Garrett Riley, 74 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 2: he understands that, like, I'm hands off, this is Garrett 75 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 2: Riley's offense, not gonna interfere. I'm not gonna pull a 76 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 2: Jimbo in interfere, And considering what Riley did last year, 77 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 2: I'm going to back that every time. 78 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 3: Is this a clade a cave club? Nick podcast? 79 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,479 Speaker 2: It's definitely not a JU podcast anymore. Yes, it is 80 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 2: a cave club, Nick pok And and Drew Aller, we'll 81 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 2: get to big ten. 82 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,359 Speaker 3: It is the DJU podcast. Well alert, I will be 83 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 3: talking about Oregon State. So I'm transitioning this podcast into 84 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 3: a DJU podcast for this season. But I disagree with 85 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 3: you on Clemson. I don't say it, but I do 86 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 3: really like to hire Garrett Riley. You know, it's kind 87 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 3: of an admission from Dabo that, hey, look I needed 88 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 3: to go outside of my house and bring someone in 89 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 3: and fix this offense because it was just an absolute mess, 90 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 3: just that the play calling, the scheme, and it needed 91 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 3: a jumpstart, and Riley is certainly demand for that job. 92 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 3: I'm gonna go my favorite bet. I think we both 93 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 3: agree on wake under right under six and a half. 94 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 3: That's taken some money. You can still find minus one 95 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 3: thirty out there, which I would bet, so I like, 96 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 3: wait far as I cannot see this team getting to 97 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 3: seven wins, but for my best but I'll say Boston 98 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 3: College over five and a half wins. This has taken 99 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 3: a little bit of money as well. Make sure you 100 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 3: shop around as always, have as many books announced as 101 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 3: you possibly can, and it's really important for every bet 102 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 3: that you make, you know, just a half points add up, 103 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 3: but especially in futures, you can see some drastic differences 104 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 3: out there, whether it's you know, conference win total, So 105 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 3: just make sure that you shop around and get the 106 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 3: best number those things that up. But I want to 107 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 3: go Boston College over five and a half wins. Basically 108 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 3: just need them to get to Bowl eligibility. On the surface, 109 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 3: you might say, oh wow, I mean the offense was 110 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 3: a mess last year. They lose their quarterback who transferred 111 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 3: to pitt and they lose a Flowers to the NFL Draft. 112 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 3: The wide receiver room took a number of hits, and 113 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 3: they lost some important pieces in the secondary. So you're saying, Okay, 114 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:36,479 Speaker 3: what's there to like about Boston College. Well, won the schedule. 115 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 3: The schedule is one of the easiest of any FBS 116 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 3: team out there. There's really if you look, eight winnable 117 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 3: games on the schedule. Northern Illinois at home, Holy Cross 118 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 3: at home, Virginia at home at Army who's basically going 119 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 3: through a complete overhaul. At Georgia Tech tough one, but 120 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 3: that does come after they're by Connecticut at home at 121 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 3: Syracuse home against Virginia Tech. They can get six of 122 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 3: those even without an upset elsewhere. And the reason that 123 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 3: I'm higher than the market on this team is their 124 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 3: offensive line. Last year, the offensive line was an absolute disaster. 125 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 3: They were starting from scratch and this was one of 126 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 3: the worst rushing offenses in the country. They couldn't generate 127 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 3: any push. It was just a mess. But this year 128 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 3: they get their best offensive line and back from injury. 129 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 3: They added two transfers who should slide in and start 130 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 3: right away, and just that experience they gained from being 131 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 3: thrown into the fire. I think their offensive line will 132 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 3: be drastically better this year. That will allow Garro to 133 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 3: actually have some lanes to run in. And Evan Warred, 134 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 3: who came in the end of last year, in the 135 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 3: last four starts and showed some flashes, got some game 136 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 3: experience under his belt. I like what the front seven 137 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 3: brings back on defense. The secondary has some holes, but 138 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 3: that's halflea specialty, so I'll trust that he'll patch that 139 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 3: up and DC will do enough to get to six wins. 140 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 3: Give me the Eagles, so I didn't forget about on 141 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 3: this podcast. Over five and a half wins. They also 142 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 3: for some positive aggression, like the turnovers, injuries, special teams play. 143 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 3: I think they might get a few more bounces than 144 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 3: they have in recent seasons this year. 145 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 4: Any thoughts on BC over no. 146 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: I agree with you completely on that, but I think 147 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 2: I want to stress that I still think wake Forest 148 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 2: still has a lot of meat on that bone to 149 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 2: take the under there camp has not really been any 150 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 2: positives that I've heard, and we talked about it in 151 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 2: our podcast on the ACC. This is a brand new center, 152 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 2: two new interior guards, and then a quarterback that is 153 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 2: not the same size or has the experience in running 154 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 2: the inside zone, which they ran a ton of mesh 155 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,199 Speaker 2: rpo with Sam Hartman. So we'll see if Mitch Griffiths 156 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 2: can do that. I'm not even sure he's going to 157 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 2: be the starter, so I definitely think there's still room 158 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 2: to run on that wake force under. 159 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, regardless of his size, is just a big, big 160 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 3: downgrade from what Hartman could do to whoever tries to 161 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 3: fill his shoes. All right, let's move on to the 162 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 3: Big ten. 163 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 4: I think we. 164 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 3: Talked at length on our Big ten podcast, which got 165 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 3: a lot of feedback, some good and some asking if 166 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 3: we needed to check into a mental institution for backing 167 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 3: James Franklin in the futures market in many different ways. 168 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 3: I took Penn State twenty five to one to win 169 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 3: the national title, my only national title future as of now. Colin, 170 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 3: do you want to throw out some more hype for 171 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 3: Penn State or where do you want. 172 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:37,959 Speaker 4: To go with this? 173 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 2: I think everybody's heard our Penn State hype. Penn State hype. 174 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,199 Speaker 2: I'm not backing off of that from a Heisman perspective. 175 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 2: From going to the playoff, I mean, I think going 176 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 2: to the playoff is much better bet than winning the 177 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 2: Big Ten, So I would look for that. There's just 178 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 2: more different avenues of celebrating and what Penn State can 179 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 2: do from an entire season perspective. Plus they can take 180 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 2: a loss miss the big championship games still go to 181 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 2: the playoff as an at large. So I think you know, 182 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 2: we've we've really echoed a lot of that out there. 183 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 2: I'm going to go back and say, Nebraska under six, 184 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 2: the juice is going the other way. So now you're 185 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 2: getting a nice fat like plus one thirty to go 186 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 2: under on this from a projection standpoint, make it around 187 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 2: five point nine. But this all goes back to Matt 188 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 2: Rule as a head coach and what he did at 189 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: Temple and Baylor three to twenty one combined his first 190 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 2: season at those programs. And that's because Matt Rule is 191 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 2: all about establishing a culture and establishing chemistry and the 192 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 2: team and not really so much about I got to 193 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 2: have this many wins in my first season, so that 194 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 2: my athletic director Trev Alberts doesn't fire me. He's got 195 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 2: a long lease share considering the clean up, you know, 196 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 2: duties that he's got from the Scott Frost era. So 197 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 2: Matt Rule is not a guy that cares about wins 198 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:51,560 Speaker 2: and losses in his first season. He's a guy that 199 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 2: cares about establishing a culture. And I had them winning 200 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 2: seven games, in my opinion, would be a miracle. 201 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 3: Don't hate that at all. I'm gonna toss out another 202 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 3: under that I think you agree on, Michigan State under 203 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,959 Speaker 3: five and a half. You have to pay a hefty 204 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 3: price tag here, but I think it's worth it if 205 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 3: you want to go, you know, with an alternate win 206 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 3: total under at plus money. I don't hate that either. 207 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,959 Speaker 3: But just I don't know where what this mel Tucker 208 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 3: is doing and where this program is headed, but it's 209 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 3: not anywhere good. 210 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 4: They lost after the spring. 211 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 3: They lost quarterback Peyton Thorne, who is now it was 212 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 3: just in the starter at Auburn. They lost then their 213 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 3: top wide out Coleman after the spring had transferred to 214 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 3: Florida State. And oh, by the way, they already lost 215 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 3: Jayden Reid to the second round of the NFL Draft. 216 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 3: They'll also miss him in the return game, the offensive. 217 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 2: Finding it was killing it in the NFL preseason, right, 218 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 2: I mean, how big of a loss is that going 219 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 2: to be? 220 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 3: Absolute stud And but by the way, special teams for 221 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 3: Michigan state a strength last year with red They had 222 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 3: a really good punter who got drafted by the Patriots. 223 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 3: They had a good kicker that they lost. They could 224 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 3: take a big step back on special teams, but on offense, 225 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 3: it's like, hey, yeah, we got a lot of experience 226 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 3: on the offensive line and a decent running back room. Okay, 227 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 3: the offensive line was horrific last year. How much improvement 228 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 3: can we really expect? And who's playing quarterback and who 229 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 3: is the quarterback throwing to? No one is going to 230 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 3: respect the downfield passing attack, so it's gonna be tough 231 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 3: sliding to try to get any run game going. And 232 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 3: then on the defensive side of the ball, which it's 233 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 3: been a mess, and they lose a number of key 234 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,199 Speaker 3: contributors in the secondary, two of their best dbacks one 235 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 3: to the NFL. I can't see their secondary getting any better. Yeah, 236 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 3: they might be due for some positive aggression. They had 237 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 3: some suspensions and injuries last year, didn't really have much 238 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 3: turnover luck. But I just don't like this unit at all. 239 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 3: And this schedule is horrific. Out of the West, they 240 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 3: draw Nebraska and road games against Minnesota and Iowa did 241 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 3: not win the lottery there. And then, oh, by the way, 242 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 3: what division are they in? They get Michigan, Penn State, 243 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 3: and Ohio State as always, and that Penn State game 244 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 3: comes in Detroit, which means they only have three true 245 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 3: Big Ten home games. Also, two of their easiest league opponents, 246 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 3: Rutgers in Indiana, both come on the road. I mean, 247 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,679 Speaker 3: there's just nothing to and then Indianagame comes in between 248 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 3: Ohio State and Penn State. There's just nothing to like 249 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:34,319 Speaker 3: about this schedule. I can't see this team getting to 250 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 3: Bowl eligibility. 251 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 4: I wouldn't even be. 252 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 3: Completely shocked if they lost to Central Michigan on in 253 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 3: Week one. I already took the Chips Chips plus you know, 254 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 3: over two touchdowns since nineteen twenty. I tweet about this 255 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 3: the other day. The Michigan and Michigan State are combined 256 00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 3: forty nine and three against the directional Michigan Max schools. 257 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 3: The three losses are Central Michigan at Michigan State in 258 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 3: nineteen ninety one, Central Michigan at Michigan State in ninet 259 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:13,680 Speaker 3: ninety two and Central Michigan at Michigan State in two 260 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:15,599 Speaker 3: thousand and nine. By the way, that two thousand and 261 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 3: nine yen was electric. It was Antonio Brown Dan Lefever, 262 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 3: I mean that quarterback who was electric. Central Michigan went 263 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 3: downscore with like thirty seconds to go. Instead of going 264 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 3: for the tie, they went for two to win it 265 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 3: incomplete onside kick with twelve seconds left. Recovered it, completed 266 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 3: the pass, then drilled a forty four yard field goal 267 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 3: right inside the upright to win an East Lansing. Don't 268 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 3: be shocked if they even go down in week one. 269 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 3: This team's a mess. I don't really like anything about 270 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 3: the Spartans give of the under You agree. 271 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 2: Right, Oh yeah, I mean Game of the Year. The 272 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 2: first one I played was Washington going to Michigan State, 273 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 2: and that number has completely ballooned. And you know you 274 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 2: mentioned Central Michigan. 275 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, they they mentioned that they have Washington in the 276 00:14:59,040 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 4: non CA. 277 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that. But that game is balloon so 278 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 2: I wouldn't recommend that as a play anymore. But at 279 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 2: the same time, that wind total is still ripe, and 280 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 2: I will probably guarantee that almost every single week Sugin 281 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 2: I put together our round robin will probably be fading 282 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 2: Michigan State in spots at their. 283 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 3: Favorite Yep, yeah, Michigan State under it is. Let's move 284 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 3: on to the Big Twelve. I'm gonna go. When we 285 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 3: did our Big Twelve episode, there was a lot of 286 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 3: uncertainty around the Iowa State betting scandal. That number of 287 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 3: for Iowa State has come way down. That's throwing a 288 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 3: wrench into a lot of the wind totals that I 289 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 3: already bet because who knows what Iowa State's gonna look 290 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 3: like like Now it could be a win for Cincinnati 291 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 3: instead of a loss like that. Really threw a wrench 292 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 3: and will be worth monitoring going forward. So I'm gonna 293 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 3: I'm gonna throw out Texas to win the Big Twelve 294 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 3: right around even money you can find out there, I'd 295 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 3: bet this up to minus one ten. I just think 296 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 3: this team is the class of the conference. They finally 297 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 3: have built out, sarking that staff finally build out a 298 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 3: roster that mirror is one you'd see in the SEC. 299 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 3: As far as depth and size in the trenches. This 300 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 3: look no further than the offensive line, which has been 301 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 3: a weakness in recent years of Texas, It's now an 302 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 3: overwhelming strength. I'd argue it's a top five unit in 303 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 3: college football. They have skill position talent for days, even 304 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 3: with the loss of Jon Robinson. I love the defense. 305 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 3: I love some of the transfers they brought in. I 306 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 3: trust Pete Kay the coordinator on that side of the ball. 307 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 3: The schedule isn't easy, but I'm lower than the market 308 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 3: on some of these other top teams in the Big Twelve, 309 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 3: and I think the Horns get it done and get 310 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 3: to their first Big Twelve title game shockingly since two 311 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 3: thousand and nine. I know it wasn't played for a 312 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 3: couple of years, but that's still a wild stat Is 313 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 3: Texas back, I'll say, I'll hedge and say partly, they 314 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 3: could really make noise on a national stage in the 315 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 3: College twelve Playoff. If Quinn Yours takes that next step. 316 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 3: Did he work on his footwork and improve his downfield 317 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 3: passing That's what's really missing was missing last year it 318 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 3: really cost them against TCU. That's if he improves his 319 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 3: downfield passing efficiency, look out, Texas will be back. 320 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 4: Even if you know he's not all the way there. 321 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 3: They might not be able to compete for a national title, 322 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 3: but I still think they can certainly win the Big twelve. 323 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 3: And plus there's a lot of quarterback death, which not 324 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 3: a lot of teams have that luxury. So give me 325 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 3: Texas to win the Big twelve. I think they finally 326 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 3: get it done on the forty acres. What could go wrong? 327 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 4: Do you agree? 328 00:17:57,640 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 2: Completely agree? They were the first bet that I made 329 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 2: out of the game back in May. I would play 330 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 2: it up to minus one twenty. That is, considering the 331 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 2: odds it would take for them not to get into 332 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,159 Speaker 2: the championship games, considering the round robin format and the 333 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 2: fact that they would have to finish third to not 334 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 2: make the championship game. Was just too big of a 335 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 2: gap between Texas and the rest of the teams. That 336 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 2: includes my favorite under in this conference, which is Oklahoma 337 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 2: under nine and a half. It's it's more of a 338 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 2: feel because mathematically I make it about nine point three 339 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 2: nine point one, so under is the you know, is 340 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 2: what's dictated from the math, but from just a whole 341 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 2: perspective of the defense and venables. He needs a linebacker 342 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 2: and Danny Stutsman's not the guy and the offense is 343 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 2: running extremely fast, but we don't have proven tacklers. There 344 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,880 Speaker 2: was some extreme splits with Oklahoma on defense last year, 345 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 2: and I just don't see it improving because they don't 346 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 2: have the players that they need to run Venables offense 347 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 2: as far as scheme dictating where players line up on 348 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 2: the defensive interier and the edge, plus you know, stealing signs. 349 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 2: It was a big part of Vinables at Clemson. He 350 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 2: just doesn't have the linebacker to get that relayed in. 351 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 2: Get everybody lined up, and you know, we'll see. I 352 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 2: don't think the fast paced offense helps at all. I 353 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 2: see a lot of shootouts, a lot of coin flip games. 354 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 2: I definitely do not see a ten win season once 355 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,199 Speaker 2: you consider their schedule. And then my favorite over in 356 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 2: this conference is West Virginia by far, down to four 357 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 2: and a half. I knew at Big twelve Media Days 358 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,160 Speaker 2: when I laid that bet that it would come down, 359 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 2: and I would probably bet it again. It's now at 360 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 2: four and a half in certain places. I was at 361 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 2: Big twal Media Days, Casher ticket that's two. I can't 362 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 2: wait to go to Big twelve Media Days next year 363 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,920 Speaker 2: with Prime. So listen, West Virginia on the over, they 364 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 2: have winnable games on this schedule, They're gonna they're gonna 365 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,440 Speaker 2: have a couple that they're completely outright favored in. They're 366 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 2: gonna be trouble for a lot of teams in the 367 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 2: Big Twelve because they've now Neil Brown has said I'm 368 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 2: taking over play calling duties. He last called plays at Kentucky, 369 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:46,679 Speaker 2: called plays at Troy. He's gonna take it over. And 370 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 2: they have an identity on the ground. With Garrett Green 371 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 2: at quarterback, C J. Donaldson a running back, they're just 372 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 2: gonna blow over front sevens that cannot defend the run, 373 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 2: and a lot of the defenses in the Big Twelve 374 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,479 Speaker 2: cannot defend the run. So with West Virginia having this rawling, 375 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 2: you know, identity, and they want to go all ground, 376 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 2: I think that's bad for a lot of other teams 377 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 2: for them to have some of these coin flip games 378 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 2: actually turn into victories here because they can establish the trench. 379 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:14,120 Speaker 4: Yeah. 380 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 3: I mean, look, you're probably the first person that I've 381 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 3: heard to show some love for West Virginia, So maybe 382 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 3: that's a good. 383 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 5: Sign Country Roads Then wore we go any further As 384 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 5: a reminder, Big Bets on Campus is presented by bet MGM, 385 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 5: So get it on the action with the King of Sportsbooks. 386 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 5: Sign up with bet MGM using bonus Code action and 387 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 5: get up to one thousand dollars paid back in bonus bets. 388 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 5: If your first bet doesn't win, that is the bonus 389 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:49,359 Speaker 5: code action is it betmgm dot com For terms and 390 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:54,120 Speaker 5: conditions Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana and Hiowa, Kansas, Louiana, Mischian, Msissippi, Nevada, 391 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,959 Speaker 5: New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, DC, 392 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 5: West Virginia, Wyoming, or Ontario only. 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In our 417 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 3: Big twelve preview episode, I mentioned Cincy under which I 418 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,679 Speaker 3: would I still like if I had to bet it, 419 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 3: but the Iowa state adjustment has put it out of 420 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 3: mathematical range now and I also liked Kansas over but 421 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,679 Speaker 3: that has taken some money since let's move on to 422 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:27,160 Speaker 3: the PAC twelve. I will mention Oregon State because why 423 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:31,880 Speaker 3: this is a DJU podcast, I'm taking a shot on 424 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 3: the Beaves twelve to one you can find out there 425 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 3: to win the Pac twelve. Basically, what I'm doing here 426 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 3: is just buying the upside of DJU headed out to 427 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,120 Speaker 3: the West Coast with a competent offensive coordinator and one 428 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 3: of the best offensive lines in the country, with an 429 00:22:55,080 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 3: outstanding backfield. If he shines in lives up to his potential, 430 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,400 Speaker 3: this team could win the Pac twelve. They also get 431 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:12,919 Speaker 3: all their toughest games against the other top tier competition 432 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 3: in the PAC twelve at home, and I don't think 433 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 3: the secondary is going to be as poor as Summer 434 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 3: making it out to be. I know that they had 435 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 3: some important losses, but I really love this staff. This 436 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,680 Speaker 3: team is getting closer, and when you infused last year, 437 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 3: they look what they did without a quarterback. Basically, now 438 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 3: you bring in DJ, you change his scenery in a 439 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 3: really good place. If he actually hits, then I think 440 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 3: there's a lot of value in this number. So instead 441 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,640 Speaker 3: of going with a win total, I'm going to try 442 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 3: and buy the upside variants of this team and go 443 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 3: with the Beavers twelve to one. I also like Washington 444 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:02,920 Speaker 3: State under six and a half, I would pay right 445 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 3: depending on distribution, the distribution, the scheduled distribution, you know. 446 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,639 Speaker 3: And then also I take into account how much I 447 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 3: value a half of win, and then around six I 448 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 3: will be a little bit more leaning. 449 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 4: I might actually pay. 450 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 3: Decide to pay for the juice around six because of 451 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 3: both motivations. If I wanted to go over five and 452 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 3: a half or under six and a half, in this case, 453 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 3: it made sense to go under six and a half 454 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 3: on Washington State. Agree on either one of those and 455 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 3: where are you going? I'm assuming you're going to talk 456 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 3: some more about UCLA. 457 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 2: Oh, of course, I absolutely agree on Oregon State. They 458 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 2: are a huge issue to defenses in that conference that 459 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,240 Speaker 2: cannot defend the run. With Damien Martinez a DJU running 460 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,520 Speaker 2: inside outside zone, that to me is scary considering what 461 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 2: DJU does as a quarterback and creating yards after contact 462 00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 2: is pretty impressive. And then you throw in that running 463 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,159 Speaker 2: back state, Oregon State's going to be a real problem 464 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:03,440 Speaker 2: for people specifically. 465 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 3: This is a nice comfort blanket that he has and 466 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 3: it's one of the best in the country. 467 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,639 Speaker 2: Yeah. Specifically where I played them was against Oregon getting 468 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 2: a TD in the Civil War. So that's a defense 469 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 2: right there that has always had issues defending the run. 470 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 2: Oregon State's going to make that a six position game 471 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 2: with these new clock rules and make them tap out. 472 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,119 Speaker 2: So I do love that there. I think there's multiple 473 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:29,880 Speaker 2: ways to play Oregon State, and you'll hear a lot 474 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,919 Speaker 2: from them on our upcoming Saturday Live shows. Yeah, but 475 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 2: I'm going to go USECLA. I'm all over it. I 476 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,160 Speaker 2: love over eight, whatever number you can get on them. 477 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 2: They were one of the first win totals that I hit. 478 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 2: I also played them Ucla to win the Pac twelve 479 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 2: at sixteen to one. I would play it down to 480 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 2: twelve to one. And the reason why this team isn't 481 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,679 Speaker 2: up there in the same odds and same win totals 482 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,639 Speaker 2: as the USC's, the Organs, and the Washington's in this 483 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 2: conference is because of the quarterback position. I fully expect 484 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 2: Ethan Garber's, who is now in a heavy quarterback battle 485 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,879 Speaker 2: with Dante Moore. I expect you think Garber's to be 486 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 2: the starter here. He'll be the caretaker for it for 487 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 2: the first three or four games, where Dante Moore becomes 488 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,640 Speaker 2: a starter. You're gonna see Dante Moore as the quarterback 489 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 2: inside of all of their games. He just probably won't 490 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 2: get as many reps or as many starts as they 491 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 2: expect him to get. But the kid is as good 492 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 2: as advertised, and I expect him to follow the Dorian 493 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 2: Thompson Robinson path, where in his freshman year he didn't 494 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 2: start right away. Mid season he became the starter after 495 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 2: he got to know the offense a little bit better 496 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 2: and was kind of a surprise against the rest of 497 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:30,160 Speaker 2: the Pac twelve competition what dtr could do. He only 498 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 2: got better with time, especially with quarterback coach Ryan Gunderson, 499 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,400 Speaker 2: who we have absolutely loved ever since he came from 500 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 2: San Jose State. So everything UCLA and then the under 501 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 2: that I love in this conference is cal under five. 502 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 2: Some interesting offensive pieces that came in through the transfer portal, 503 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,200 Speaker 2: but it's just not worked out whatsoever. Jake Spavital fired 504 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 2: at Texas State now the offensive coordinator there. But the 505 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,719 Speaker 2: problem all comes down to quarterback and that Sam Jackson 506 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 2: might not be ready to be a starter. No grasp 507 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 2: of the playbook. Great in a scramble routine, right, great 508 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:06,159 Speaker 2: in generating scramble yards and gonna look pretty good in 509 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,399 Speaker 2: certain spots, But at the same time, mistakes are going 510 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,200 Speaker 2: to be made here. There's not a lot of depth 511 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 2: past him at the quarterback position. Cal's defense, I don't 512 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,360 Speaker 2: know what is going on in the Justin Wilcox area 513 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 2: is getting worse every single season last year bottom ten 514 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 2: and having in success rate like that's supposed to be 515 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 2: Justin Wilcox's bread and butter. So not really sure what's 516 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 2: going on the defensive side of the ball. But this 517 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:30,879 Speaker 2: is such a quarterback offensive heavy conference that you can't 518 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,120 Speaker 2: have your defense going in this direction. So I'll take 519 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:33,920 Speaker 2: Cal under five. 520 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that as well. I wouldn't be surprised 521 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 3: if CAL lost in its opener headed down to Denton. 522 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,879 Speaker 3: When's the last time North Texas hosted a Power five team. 523 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 2: It's a contribute question, but. 524 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Cal a lot of change questions on 525 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,119 Speaker 3: the roster going down to Denton. 526 00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 4: In the opening week. You know what that means. 527 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 3: Heat That summer heat is going to be brutal for 528 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 3: them to deal with, So that could end up being 529 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 3: a factor it's a different heat down there that could 530 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 3: work in North Texas's favor and will Cox today. 531 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm north of Denton, right. 532 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, let's see Denton. Yeassive heat warning. One of four, 533 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,399 Speaker 3: one of four, one O seven, one O seven, one 534 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:28,360 Speaker 3: O seven, one of five. 535 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 4: That's the next five days. 536 00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,920 Speaker 2: What's Berkeley today. I'm gonna go with seventy five. 537 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 3: Sixty four currently it's gonna be high at seventy five. Yeah, 538 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 3: so that that heat could certainly be a factor. We'll 539 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 3: talk about that game more on our previous All right, 540 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 3: let's finish up the Power five. 541 00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 4: And by the way, I agree with you. 542 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 3: On cal Let's finish up the Power five with the SEC. 543 00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 3: I'll throw a couple out there if you want to 544 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 3: get crazy. Our producer Matt Mitchell has given me shit 545 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 3: already about this one. But oh, miss, I think I 546 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 3: got twenty five one. 547 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 4: I think you could. 548 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 3: Find twenty to one still out there to win the division. 549 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 3: I made the case on the SEC podcast. So if 550 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 3: you want to go here me sound crazy, make sure 551 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 3: you check that out. I also you want if you 552 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 3: want to get I guess I just sounded like a 553 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,840 Speaker 3: crazy person entire podcast. I also bet Georgia under eleven 554 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 3: and a half wins. I made my case there kind 555 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 3: of a feel thing. I show a tad bit of 556 00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 3: value from par to my projections. But I think Georgia 557 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,479 Speaker 3: is gonna win the division and get to the SC 558 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 3: Championship game. I think they trip up somewhere a lah 559 00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 3: Alabama a couple years ago when I took the under 560 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,720 Speaker 3: eleven and a half and they lost to Zach Calzada 561 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 3: has three touchdown favorites down to Texas A and M. 562 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,880 Speaker 3: Georgia has some questions that you know, we'll see how 563 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 3: Carson Beck works out and the offensive coordinator change. But 564 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 3: I think someone gets them. They're the hunt and now 565 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 3: they might be a little complacent. I think they trip 566 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 3: up at least once along the way, Mississippi State under. 567 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 4: Six and a half. 568 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 3: I'll i'd pay the extra juice to, you know, up 569 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,719 Speaker 3: to like minus one sixty you can find I'd pay that. 570 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 3: I don't see this team having any shot of getting 571 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 3: to seven wins. And if you're looking for an over 572 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 3: I'll say my favorite bet is Kentucky over seven wins. 573 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 3: You can find a minus one fifteen. I think even 574 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 3: out there minus one twenty chop around like there's there's 575 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 3: a number of different prices out there, but I would 576 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:57,240 Speaker 3: definitely look for the seven. I really like everything that 577 00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 3: I'm hearing from all the people that I know called 578 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 3: to the program, and this. 579 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:03,480 Speaker 4: Is similar to Boston College. 580 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 3: Last year. I went under on Kentucky because I said, 581 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 3: this offensive line is gonna be a problem and it's 582 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 3: gonna hamper the entire offense. I don't think that's gonna 583 00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 3: be the case. To The offensive line, along with PC, 584 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 3: should be one of the most improved units in off 585 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,760 Speaker 3: college football, and I don't think that there's gonna be 586 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 3: a big drop off from Levis to Leary. They also 587 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 3: bring Liam collenback as the offensive coordinator and I think 588 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 3: that's a big upgrade. And you can always trust this 589 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 3: Kentucky defense under Stoops. So I think Kentucky's in for 590 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,360 Speaker 3: a pretty big year. I think they're gonna end up with, 591 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,239 Speaker 3: you know, a big year for Kentucky, which is eight 592 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 3: or nine wins. So I like Kentucky over seven. They 593 00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 3: have a really really good chance of starting out the 594 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 3: gates really fast and what they could easily be five 595 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 3: and zero headed into that game against Georgia, which you 596 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 3: know I mean, barring a miracle, they'll lose that game, 597 00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,720 Speaker 3: but they should be able to build a lot of 598 00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 3: momentum early on. So give me the Cats, and don't 599 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 3: I have my Kentucky shirt on them in Lexington. Don't 600 00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 3: call me a homer because last year one of my 601 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 3: favorite bets was the Kentucky under. But this year we're 602 00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 3: reversing script and we were going over. 603 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 4: Yeah. 604 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:26,600 Speaker 3: I mean their their schedule to start is Ball State 605 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 3: at home, Eastern Kentucky at home, Acron at home, at 606 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 3: Vandy home against Florida. Right, that is a really good 607 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,680 Speaker 3: shot at starting five. And oh when you're at Georgia 608 00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,360 Speaker 3: probably lost in your home against Missouri home against Tennessee, 609 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 3: you're really down on. 610 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:43,320 Speaker 4: I'm down and I think. 611 00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 3: They get that game at Mississippi State, a team I'm 612 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,960 Speaker 3: low and it's a tough spot in between Tennessee and Alabama. 613 00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 3: Alabama comes to Lexington, that game's not an impossible game 614 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 3: to win. And they're at South Carolina, who I'm low on, 615 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,280 Speaker 3: and then at Louisville will be a tough game to 616 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:04,440 Speaker 3: close the season, but I think they certainly get the seven. 617 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,280 Speaker 3: But I love what I'm hearing from this team. And 618 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 3: I think they get to eight or nine. Any thoughts 619 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 3: on any of those. Kentucky over, Mississippi State under, oh 620 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 3: miss Division in Georgia under are my four favorite bets 621 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 3: in the SEC. Any thoughts on what he got? 622 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 2: I'm with you on all those except for the Georgia under. 623 00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 2: I understand the Georgia under. I think it's you know, 624 00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 2: it's really close, you know, as far as a mathematical 625 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 2: projection on eleven and a half wins, So you know, 626 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,320 Speaker 2: I could see them dropping a game, although Carson Beck 627 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 2: has been really good in practice, named the starter, and 628 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,440 Speaker 2: he's got some outside weapons there, which you know, with 629 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 2: Kenny McIntosh being hurt, they've got a huge stable of 630 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 2: running backs. But you know, I do expect a little 631 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 2: bit of drop off on both sides of the ball. 632 00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:50,520 Speaker 2: But does that mean they're going to lose a game. 633 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,040 Speaker 2: I'm just going to stay away from that and take 634 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 2: Georgia to win the SEC at minus one ten and 635 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 2: I'm treating that as a money line ticket and the 636 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 2: SEC Championship game. Completely agree with you on Kentucky, but 637 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 2: I also love Missouri on the over at six. I 638 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:04,360 Speaker 2: love it if you can get it at that number 639 00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:05,960 Speaker 2: with some juice on it. If you got to play 640 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 2: six and a half, that win total probably comes down 641 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 2: to the Arkansas game. But I love the fact that 642 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,479 Speaker 2: Drinkwitz is completely hands off with the offense now says 643 00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,799 Speaker 2: that he did not put Missouri in the place that 644 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,439 Speaker 2: they should be offensively. He's handing it over to Kirby Moore, 645 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,560 Speaker 2: who comes in from Fresno State, and we're gonna we're 646 00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,480 Speaker 2: gonna find out real quick if it's the system that 647 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:25,440 Speaker 2: Kirby Moore built at Fresno State, or whether it was 648 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,120 Speaker 2: Jake Hayner and a plethora of weapons in the backfield 649 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 2: that they were always able to terrorize the Mountain West. 650 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:32,439 Speaker 2: But I believe in Kirby Moore. In his system. They're 651 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 2: gonna move Luther Bolden down to the slot. He's going 652 00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 2: to be a force on the inside. They got Theoiz 653 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,520 Speaker 2: from the Transfer Portal who averages more than two yards 654 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,520 Speaker 2: per route run for Oklahoma. They've got explosiveness on the outside, 655 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,880 Speaker 2: They're gonna have explosiveness on the inside. I think Missouri 656 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:47,360 Speaker 2: is going to be tough for a lot of teams. 657 00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,080 Speaker 2: And the team that I dislike in the East you 658 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,759 Speaker 2: mentioned it is Tennessee and I'm not saying go out 659 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:54,799 Speaker 2: there and grab that minus one eighty on the under 660 00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:56,839 Speaker 2: nine and a half. That's way too far. I would 661 00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:58,480 Speaker 2: never say lock that up for an entire season. But 662 00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,279 Speaker 2: the alternate under eight and a half at like plus 663 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 2: one fifty plus one forty, I will take that all day. 664 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,080 Speaker 2: This is a roster. I'm sorry. You can't sign Joe 665 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,240 Speaker 2: Milton up to do what Hendon Hooker did. Joe Milton 666 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 2: lost his job in Michigan. Joe Milton lost his job 667 00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:16,080 Speaker 2: in Tennessee to Hendon Hooker because the offense is all 668 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,760 Speaker 2: about timing and it's about route trees by the wide receivers. 669 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 2: After I've taken some heat on Twitter saying, you know, 670 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:23,960 Speaker 2: they don't have weapons to do this. They don't have 671 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 2: weapons to do that. Bruce McCoy is one point six 672 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,319 Speaker 2: yards per route run. There are other wide receivers here, 673 00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:32,799 Speaker 2: you know, Squirrel White is the exception. But the other 674 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:34,560 Speaker 2: wide receivers they are going to depend on the outside 675 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 2: to fill the Jalen high Roll did not put up 676 00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,920 Speaker 2: the numbers from an explosives perspective. Now that can change, 677 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,320 Speaker 2: but you need Joe Milton to hit you in stride 678 00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,200 Speaker 2: down the field. That's a big part in this Tennessee 679 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:48,160 Speaker 2: offense when you do the stretch, the power raid. So 680 00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,640 Speaker 2: I just it's not a good fit. And then their defense, 681 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:52,759 Speaker 2: you can't name any of the players that they have 682 00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,480 Speaker 2: on defense that are in first or second team preseason 683 00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 2: SEC all SEC. It's gonna be a problem on defense. Again, 684 00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,279 Speaker 2: they lost their best edge rusher, so I don't see 685 00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,359 Speaker 2: a lot on the defensive side. Schedule gets a little 686 00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,040 Speaker 2: bit tougher, you know, sign me up for Tennessee on 687 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 2: the under in the alternates. 688 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,200 Speaker 3: I don't hate it. I've started to come around on 689 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 3: your take there. And yeah, you like Missouri, I like Kentucky. 690 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,640 Speaker 3: Kentucky getting that game at home and Lexington against Tennessee 691 00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:22,400 Speaker 3: will certainly help. 692 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:25,759 Speaker 2: Can I say this? Can I say this? Yeah, the 693 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,120 Speaker 2: second Joe Milton's not the quarterback and Nico's the quarterback 694 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,200 Speaker 2: that that power rating might take a dive. Oddsmaker's made, 695 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 2: you know, take a dive on the power rating. I'm 696 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,480 Speaker 2: all in on Nico. I'm all in. I'm ready to 697 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,120 Speaker 2: back Tennessee when they get deflated in power ratings and 698 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,040 Speaker 2: Vegas odds, and Nico's a quarterback, I'm ready to back 699 00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,799 Speaker 2: you guys. It's just a problem that I have with 700 00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:45,360 Speaker 2: Joe Milton. 701 00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:48,319 Speaker 3: Just stop trying to get on the good side of 702 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,880 Speaker 3: Tennessee fans. Just just be the villain. Just be the 703 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:55,279 Speaker 3: villain and wear it all year. All right, Before we 704 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 3: give our thoughts on each of the Group of five conferences, 705 00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:06,040 Speaker 3: let's throw it to Mike and Mike for their best bets. 706 00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:10,000 Speaker 7: Thanks, Duckey, and here with me is Mike Ianello. I'm 707 00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:12,680 Speaker 7: Mike Calibery's We are the G five Deep Dives, so 708 00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,520 Speaker 7: please listen to us throughout the season for everything in 709 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,840 Speaker 7: the Group of Five. They kick it to Ianella first 710 00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,680 Speaker 7: for his favorite season long play Future of the Year. 711 00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:24,240 Speaker 8: Yeah, I'm going to the new look American So SMU 712 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 8: is a team I'm looking to step up in this 713 00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 8: new AAC. They started a collective to pay thirty thousand 714 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,040 Speaker 8: dollars to every player in their team, which is really 715 00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:34,839 Speaker 8: helped them in the portal. It's really helped them build 716 00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 8: depth this year. They bring in a ton of dudes 717 00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:40,080 Speaker 8: from Miami. But for me, the biggest story is Preston Stone. 718 00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:42,759 Speaker 8: It's the Stone Age in Dallas. He takes it over 719 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:46,480 Speaker 8: at quarterback. He's been the backup for the last two years. 720 00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,359 Speaker 8: Former four star recruit SMU might have the best wide 721 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 8: receiver room in the G five even without Rashiet Rice. 722 00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,040 Speaker 8: I love the weapons they have, their offensive lines, experience. 723 00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:59,440 Speaker 8: Offense should be loaded, and most importantly, I like this schedule. 724 00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,719 Speaker 8: It's cake walk. They don't play tu lane, they don't 725 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:07,280 Speaker 8: play UTSA, they don't play FAU. SMU should be favored 726 00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,279 Speaker 8: in every conference game this year, so they have the 727 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 8: best chance to get to the conference title game. And 728 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,200 Speaker 8: I'll take that plus three point fifty in my pocket 729 00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:17,560 Speaker 8: come December. 730 00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,600 Speaker 7: All right, I'll keep the positivity going here with an 731 00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,760 Speaker 7: over over four and a half in Fort Collins, Colorado. 732 00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,359 Speaker 7: Colorado State coming in this year off of a three 733 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,240 Speaker 7: and nine campaign. But when you dig into the numbers, 734 00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,440 Speaker 7: Clay Millen, their freshman quarterback last year, set the NCAA 735 00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:35,000 Speaker 7: record for a freshman in terms of completion percentage for 736 00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:38,600 Speaker 7: a first year starter seventy two point two percent. He 737 00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,680 Speaker 7: was incredible, despite the fact that he was under dressed 738 00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,640 Speaker 7: the whole season. Their offensive line was horrific. The fifty 739 00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,200 Speaker 7: nine sacks that was the worst in the FBS. 740 00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:48,000 Speaker 2: And what do they do? 741 00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,040 Speaker 7: They went straight to the portal, a lot of big 742 00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,919 Speaker 7: dudes with starting experienced sixty six starts coming in through 743 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,759 Speaker 7: the portal, and now their offensive line averages over six 744 00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,719 Speaker 7: foot four and three hundred pounds. If you listened to 745 00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:02,360 Speaker 7: Colin Wilson during our Mountain West preview, he talked about 746 00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:05,600 Speaker 7: sitting down at media days with Jay Norvel, the head coach, 747 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,959 Speaker 7: and he pointed out that his offensive lineman he pointed 748 00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:10,200 Speaker 7: to his chest, were so big last year. Now they 749 00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,319 Speaker 7: got some big boys protecting Millan and that's great news 750 00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,000 Speaker 7: because their receiving corps is electric. Tory Horden is a 751 00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,400 Speaker 7: guy that could go for a thousand yards ten touchdowns. 752 00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,319 Speaker 7: And then when I also look at their defense, they 753 00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,360 Speaker 7: bring back four of their five starters in the secondary. 754 00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,080 Speaker 7: It was one of the best defenses in conference play 755 00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,640 Speaker 7: against the pass last year in the Mountain West. So 756 00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:28,319 Speaker 7: I think they're going to be the surprise team. I 757 00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,640 Speaker 7: sprinkled on them to win the conference as well, but 758 00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,840 Speaker 7: I love them over four and a half. All right, 759 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:34,680 Speaker 7: let's get back to your win total for your second 760 00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,640 Speaker 7: best future in G five Land. 761 00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,200 Speaker 8: Yeah, I'll stick with it over too. I'm going with 762 00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,240 Speaker 8: Coastal Carolina over seven and a half in the sunbel 763 00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,600 Speaker 8: You know, they lose Jamie Chadwell. I think he's a 764 00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,680 Speaker 8: great coach, But Grayson McCall's back, and I think Grayson 765 00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,479 Speaker 8: McCall is worth more than more to this win total 766 00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:54,320 Speaker 8: than Chadwell was. Nobody followed Chadwell celebrity, so they basically 767 00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,760 Speaker 8: bring back most of their key pieces, especially on offense. 768 00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,640 Speaker 8: This offense should hum again and should continue to be 769 00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,600 Speaker 8: one of the most efficient units in the country. Under 770 00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,480 Speaker 8: McCall and his three seasons as the starter, they've gone 771 00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:09,560 Speaker 8: ten and one, ten and one, eight and two. They 772 00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,240 Speaker 8: have a kind of easy schedule. Their West draws Arkansas 773 00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,520 Speaker 8: State and Texas State. On the East they get James 774 00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:19,239 Speaker 8: Madison and Marshall both at home. This total really comes 775 00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:23,560 Speaker 8: down in McCall's health. If McCall plays nine games, they 776 00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:25,560 Speaker 8: should win at least eight of them. Give me over 777 00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,840 Speaker 8: seven and a half. I'm riding with the Chanta Clears, 778 00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:29,040 Speaker 8: all right. 779 00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,080 Speaker 7: I'll close this up with a little negativity. I'm going 780 00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,000 Speaker 7: big time under on UAB. And for those of you 781 00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:36,440 Speaker 7: not in the know, this is not the UAB team 782 00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,800 Speaker 7: of the last two years. Bill Clark gone, Brian Vincent, 783 00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:43,080 Speaker 7: the interim coach who the players stumped for. They wrote 784 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,160 Speaker 7: a letter to the university president, this is our guy, 785 00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:46,560 Speaker 7: he went, nope, I know better. 786 00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:47,960 Speaker 2: I know who I'm going to bring in here. 787 00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,280 Speaker 9: Trent dilfer, known egomaniac. 788 00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:51,200 Speaker 4: He's now in. 789 00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,800 Speaker 7: And what happened in the offseason, massive exodus of talent. 790 00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:57,080 Speaker 4: We can't forget the football. 791 00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,120 Speaker 2: If you want to be a fire breather, make sure 792 00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:00,000 Speaker 2: you sign up today. 793 00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,520 Speaker 7: In terms of Colin Wilson's net TARP, which measures the 794 00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:07,840 Speaker 7: returning production and transfer activity, they were negative twelve overall. 795 00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:10,200 Speaker 7: That's worse in the entire country, negative seven on offense, 796 00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,799 Speaker 7: worse in the entire country. And now just broke over 797 00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:16,560 Speaker 7: the weekend, drew to Azama. One of their best defensive linemen, 798 00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,160 Speaker 7: which was going to be their only strength of this 799 00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,520 Speaker 7: entire team, is now off to South Carolina as a 800 00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:24,120 Speaker 7: late grad transfer. This is really bad news. And Trent 801 00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,080 Speaker 7: Dilfher apparently is this quarterback whisper because he was, you know, 802 00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,680 Speaker 7: the summer camp counselor at a lead eleven who could 803 00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,120 Speaker 7: possibly coach up five star kids. He doesn't have a 804 00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,040 Speaker 7: five star kid. He's got Jacob Zeno, who had a 805 00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,520 Speaker 7: thirty four QBR last year. Good luck Trent. There's two 806 00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,239 Speaker 7: winnable games on the entire schedule, North Carolina A and 807 00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,960 Speaker 7: T and USF. The rest of them are all losable. 808 00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,600 Speaker 7: I see them going three to nine at best. This 809 00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,640 Speaker 7: is an implosion. I'm hoping for a team mutiny. I know, 810 00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:50,400 Speaker 7: what are your thoughts on the Blazers. 811 00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:52,880 Speaker 2: Well, I have a question. I'm just curious, Breeze. 812 00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:56,120 Speaker 8: Since you know Trent Dilfer has never been a coach 813 00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:59,760 Speaker 8: at in the college level, I'm assuming he aligned himself 814 00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,960 Speaker 8: with people with tons of experience that, you know, say coordinators, correct. 815 00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:03,840 Speaker 9: You know, it's interesting. 816 00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,080 Speaker 7: It's kind of like Elon Musk taking over Twitter X 817 00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:07,120 Speaker 7: whatever we're calling it now. 818 00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:08,200 Speaker 9: He just knows better. 819 00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:08,600 Speaker 2: He's smart. 820 00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,360 Speaker 7: Who needs all these engineers, He needs all these experienced 821 00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:14,600 Speaker 7: assistants and coordinators. And he went ahead and hired seven 822 00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:18,000 Speaker 7: out of his ten position coach position coaches. They've never 823 00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:21,120 Speaker 7: coached up an FPS squad, an FCS squad, they've never 824 00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,400 Speaker 7: done it in college, just like him. So it seems 825 00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,440 Speaker 7: like it's a perfect marriage with people that don't know 826 00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,759 Speaker 7: what they're doing and a talent devoid roster man. This 827 00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,359 Speaker 7: is probably my favorite under and it pains me because 828 00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,520 Speaker 7: I love UAB. I hope they just cut ties within 829 00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,960 Speaker 7: mid season and they can just do a full rebuild 830 00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,640 Speaker 7: restock themselves to the portal next year. Maybe get Brian 831 00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:40,520 Speaker 7: Vincent back. I think he's the OC at New Mexico. 832 00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,439 Speaker 7: I'm sure he'd love to come back. You know, maybe 833 00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,239 Speaker 7: fire the school president while we're at it. You know 834 00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,400 Speaker 7: I'm calling for here in Birmingham. 835 00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:48,879 Speaker 9: Don't care of you black ball me before we kick 836 00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:49,440 Speaker 9: it the stucky. 837 00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:51,360 Speaker 7: This is a good time to talk about getting ready 838 00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,440 Speaker 7: for the season, and with the busy. 839 00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:54,920 Speaker 9: Fall season just around the corner, you. 840 00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:57,479 Speaker 7: Might be looking for some wholesome, convenient meals for jam 841 00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:01,279 Speaker 7: pack days. 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And you're not the only one listening 846 00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:16,920 Speaker 7: in Our producer Matt Mitchell has been a user a Factor, 847 00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:18,880 Speaker 7: and I can attest you used to have some issues 848 00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:22,000 Speaker 7: with getting the best food into his body, but the 849 00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,120 Speaker 7: Factor Ready to Eat Meal Kit has made his lifestyle 850 00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:25,880 Speaker 7: a lot easier. 851 00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:27,719 Speaker 9: Matt give us a spin of what it's like to 852 00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:28,560 Speaker 9: be a Factor user. 853 00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:32,319 Speaker 10: So I love Factor. I have tried all of the 854 00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:37,240 Speaker 10: various meal kits and meal preparation programs along with my wife. 855 00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,640 Speaker 10: Factors by far our favorite. It's the one we've stuck 856 00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:44,239 Speaker 10: with the longest. I think the food is delicious. I 857 00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:47,120 Speaker 10: am not particularly picky. I just want to make sure 858 00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:50,240 Speaker 10: there's enough food. That's probably my favorite part of Factor 859 00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:53,400 Speaker 10: is there portions are very nice. I also love that 860 00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:56,600 Speaker 10: it takes exactly two minutes to eat because it's not frozen. 861 00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:59,279 Speaker 10: Just two minutes in the microwave and you're ready to go. 862 00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:04,879 Speaker 10: So when I'm editing down seventeen hours Stucky colleturball podcasts 863 00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:08,280 Speaker 10: into something people can enjoy. Factor fits in very nicely 864 00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,799 Speaker 10: there and it tastes great. And for my wife, who's 865 00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:15,120 Speaker 10: extremely picky, there's always something that she gets excited about eating. 866 00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,040 Speaker 10: They have so many different things to choose from. And 867 00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:21,760 Speaker 10: I'll also note, unlike a lot of their competitors, Factor 868 00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:25,680 Speaker 10: is always delivered on time, which is very important, especially 869 00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:30,040 Speaker 10: when you're very hungry leading up to say a Ohio 870 00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:33,080 Speaker 10: San Diego State Week zero game and you don't have 871 00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:36,040 Speaker 10: a second to spare, so can't say enough about Factor. 872 00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:39,840 Speaker 10: Highly encourage giving it a shot for any of our listeners. 873 00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:42,320 Speaker 7: If you're running a two minute offense like Matt Mitchell, 874 00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,200 Speaker 7: this could fit into your lifestyle perfectly. 875 00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,040 Speaker 9: And this August, you can get Factor and. 876 00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,720 Speaker 7: Enjoy eating all of these meals without the hassle right away. 877 00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,920 Speaker 7: Simply choose your meals and enjoy fresh flavor pack meals 878 00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,920 Speaker 7: delivered to your door. Head Factor meals dot com. Slash 879 00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:58,360 Speaker 7: BBOC fifty and use code BBOC fifty to get fifty 880 00:44:58,360 --> 00:44:58,919 Speaker 7: percent off. 881 00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:02,480 Speaker 9: That's code BBO fifty at factormeals dot com. 882 00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:06,080 Speaker 7: Slash BBOC fifty to get fifty percent off. All right, 883 00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,000 Speaker 7: that's it for us here in G five lane. We're 884 00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:10,440 Speaker 7: kicking it back to the Power five Boys column and stuff. 885 00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,879 Speaker 3: All right, good stuff there, let's start. We could go 886 00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:21,600 Speaker 3: alphabetically again. Let's start in the American. Iella liked SMU 887 00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:24,440 Speaker 3: to win the conference. You can find like plus three 888 00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,920 Speaker 3: thirty plus three fifty out there. I agree. I actually 889 00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:31,160 Speaker 3: played that myself. I'm a huge Preston Stone guid it's 890 00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,080 Speaker 3: the Stone Age. I like a lot of the pieces 891 00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:36,400 Speaker 3: that they brought in in the off season, and I 892 00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:41,120 Speaker 3: love the schedule. But I'll also throw out another future 893 00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:44,560 Speaker 3: that I really like is Florida Atlantic to win the AAC. 894 00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:51,279 Speaker 3: Hopefully I get FAU against SMU in the championship game. 895 00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:52,920 Speaker 4: But I love Tom Herman. 896 00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:56,359 Speaker 3: I think he's a big upgrade as a coach down 897 00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:59,560 Speaker 3: in Boca, and I just love the potential of this roster. 898 00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:03,320 Speaker 3: I mean, Casey Thompson, that quarterback. He can really shine 899 00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:07,440 Speaker 3: at this level with his tools against this these defenses, 900 00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,200 Speaker 3: and he's already familiar with Herman's system. 901 00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:11,239 Speaker 4: By the way, he might he's not. 902 00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,040 Speaker 3: Even named the start yet, I assume he will. But 903 00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:15,279 Speaker 3: they also have Daniel richardson there, so they have good 904 00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,160 Speaker 3: quarterback depth and that's you know, if there's an injury 905 00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:21,560 Speaker 3: or just someone to fall back on, They've a loaded backfield. 906 00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:23,840 Speaker 3: Larry mccavon is one of the best running backs in 907 00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,880 Speaker 3: the country that most have never heard of. Massive offensive 908 00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:31,600 Speaker 3: line with upper classmen all over the place, and a 909 00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:35,640 Speaker 3: really good offensive line coach, so I mean new offensive 910 00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,880 Speaker 3: coordinator Charlie Frye. He's got a lot to work with. 911 00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,760 Speaker 3: He's even got two good receivers, two Power five transfer 912 00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:45,880 Speaker 3: tight ends. This offense just oozes with potential, and I 913 00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:48,120 Speaker 3: really like the defense. I mean, there's just a lot of. 914 00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:48,600 Speaker 4: Good pieces here. 915 00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:51,880 Speaker 3: The defensive tackles, that rotation, They have four guys who 916 00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:55,480 Speaker 3: can really play if they can just find a more 917 00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:58,759 Speaker 3: consistent edge rush with these juniors who are returning, and 918 00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:02,200 Speaker 3: then got a find a couple guys at linebacker. That's 919 00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:04,680 Speaker 3: the biggest weakness. But I really like the safeties. I 920 00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,399 Speaker 3: really like the corners that are returning. This secondary could 921 00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,719 Speaker 3: be a strength in this conference. So yeah, I like 922 00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:14,720 Speaker 3: a lot about this team. And that includes the schedule. 923 00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:19,960 Speaker 3: They host both UTSA and Tulane, and they avoid SMU 924 00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:22,560 Speaker 3: in Memphis, and as. 925 00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:23,000 Speaker 4: A result of. 926 00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:33,480 Speaker 3: An extremely manageable AC road slate, USF Charlotte, UAB, and 927 00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:39,560 Speaker 3: Rice those are the road conference games for FAU love 928 00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:41,160 Speaker 3: the potential of this team, so I took a shot 929 00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:44,880 Speaker 3: on them plus six point fifty to win the league. 930 00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,839 Speaker 3: And he thoughts there, Oh, by the way, I mentioned 931 00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:57,080 Speaker 3: YOUAB with Calvary's mentioned under, I wholeheartedly agree UAB under 932 00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:00,839 Speaker 3: four and a half it's gonna be a mess. So yeah, 933 00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:05,360 Speaker 3: UAB under agree with Cabrey's SMU. I agree with Ianella 934 00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:08,400 Speaker 3: and then I also played an FAU future, which is 935 00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:12,880 Speaker 3: my favorite bet in the AAC. Any thoughts there, Well, I'm. 936 00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:15,400 Speaker 2: Waiting for you AB to get torched this season in 937 00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:19,000 Speaker 2: every single game, as if a dragon was breathing on them. 938 00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:22,000 Speaker 2: But not too bad. I love Alex Mortensen. I'm not 939 00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:24,720 Speaker 2: sure he has the qualifications yet to be the offensive 940 00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:29,319 Speaker 2: coordinator at an FBS program, but he was a former 941 00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:34,840 Speaker 2: Arkansas quarterback. He is a former Arkansas analyst, position coach, 942 00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,120 Speaker 2: and add at Alabama two He's got the pedigree to 943 00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:40,080 Speaker 2: do this. So that is the lone bright spot that 944 00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:41,640 Speaker 2: I like got of the UAB team. But at the 945 00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:43,600 Speaker 2: end of the day, Trent Dilfer is the one that's 946 00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:47,280 Speaker 2: going around making statements that are just not true, giving 947 00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,279 Speaker 2: these kids really bad life advice with some of the 948 00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:52,960 Speaker 2: things that he says, and then an audio drop where 949 00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:55,040 Speaker 2: he's like, I'll call ESPN. I got some buddies there, 950 00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:56,680 Speaker 2: like come on, stop. 951 00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,200 Speaker 11: By the way, come try to get my guys. I 952 00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:03,160 Speaker 11: dare you power fives? I got a pretty big platform 953 00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:04,920 Speaker 11: that I can step on. Yeah, and if I find 954 00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:07,879 Speaker 11: you in my kids DMS, I'm gonna call your out 955 00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:09,960 Speaker 11: and it's gonna make game day, and it's gonna make 956 00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:12,120 Speaker 11: Sports Center because, by the way, those guys running Sports 957 00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:13,400 Speaker 11: Center still my friends. 958 00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,239 Speaker 2: You are not prepared for this job whatsoever, So you 959 00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,840 Speaker 2: ab is just gonna be a disaster of a program. 960 00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:20,600 Speaker 2: But it is heavily juiced on the under five because. 961 00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:20,960 Speaker 4: Of the downside. 962 00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:23,359 Speaker 3: I put some under four and a half plus one 963 00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:24,640 Speaker 3: oh five last night. 964 00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:26,640 Speaker 4: I prefer that to the juice five. 965 00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:29,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I completely agree. On Florida Atlantic, I would 966 00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,040 Speaker 2: still take them right now. Florida. You know what we 967 00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:34,080 Speaker 2: mentioned about that team. I think before you know, Tom 968 00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:36,319 Speaker 2: Herman coming in got a gift from the gods from 969 00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:39,960 Speaker 2: a scheduling perspective. Plus Casey Thompson transfers in from Nebraska 970 00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:43,440 Speaker 2: but previously at Texas, which was Tom Herman's quarterback. That 971 00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:45,359 Speaker 2: is a really good marriage that they're gonna have going 972 00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:48,200 Speaker 2: on down there. Other than that, all the numbers that 973 00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:50,480 Speaker 2: I hit back in the summer have all moved. I 974 00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:52,800 Speaker 2: still love South Florida, but it's now three and a 975 00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,440 Speaker 2: half not I'm sorry, it's four and not three. I 976 00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:57,879 Speaker 2: still have Memphis over seven that I took, but it's 977 00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:00,279 Speaker 2: at eight and then old dominion on the under four. 978 00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:02,960 Speaker 2: I loved, you know, a couple months ago, and that's 979 00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:04,359 Speaker 2: down to three and a half. So I still love 980 00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:06,680 Speaker 2: all that stuff, but they have moved. I don't show 981 00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:08,239 Speaker 2: as much value. I would still play it. 982 00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:12,319 Speaker 3: Yeah, the I agree on Memphis. I guess I would 983 00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:15,760 Speaker 3: still play it now, but yeah, it's a lot tougher 984 00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:21,920 Speaker 3: after the movement and Old Dominion. We're gonna you're you're 985 00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,480 Speaker 3: getting ahead of yourself. That's they're not in this conference 986 00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:26,840 Speaker 3: or in the sun Belt. Oh I'm sorry, which we 987 00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:29,080 Speaker 3: will get to. But we could just go there now, 988 00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,399 Speaker 3: let's go to the sun Belt. It was a nice 989 00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:33,920 Speaker 3: accidental transition by you. 990 00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:35,239 Speaker 2: I know. 991 00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:39,000 Speaker 3: We'll mention Coastal over seven and a half wins. He 992 00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:46,319 Speaker 3: is trusting the quarterback, which isn't a bad idea, but 993 00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:50,160 Speaker 3: I don't show enough value to get involved with McCall there. 994 00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:53,520 Speaker 3: I am going with Old Dominion under three and a 995 00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:58,320 Speaker 3: half wins minus one ten. This team is a mess. 996 00:50:58,360 --> 00:51:01,880 Speaker 3: You can add on if you want, but there's nothing 997 00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:06,520 Speaker 3: to like about this team. I also still show significant 998 00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:10,000 Speaker 3: amount of value under three and a half. Let's look 999 00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:15,360 Speaker 3: at the schedule and the projections. They will beat Texas 1000 00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,480 Speaker 3: A and m Commerce. I assume and there'll be double 1001 00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:22,120 Speaker 3: digit dogs in five games, so let's call that one 1002 00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:25,960 Speaker 3: in five. So they need to get three wins to 1003 00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:30,399 Speaker 3: go over this win total of the remaining six. Those 1004 00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:33,640 Speaker 3: six games, I have them as a dog in all 1005 00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:37,799 Speaker 3: of them, right around a touchdown in five and a 1006 00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:41,480 Speaker 3: field goal underdog in the other. So I basically just 1007 00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:45,040 Speaker 3: need them to not go three and three in six 1008 00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:49,319 Speaker 3: games where they will be an underdog of you know, 1009 00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:55,280 Speaker 3: right around a touchdown at almost every game. I also 1010 00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:58,359 Speaker 3: don't like anything that's going on with this team, big 1011 00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:00,719 Speaker 3: time transition, lots of changes to be a rough year 1012 00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:03,560 Speaker 3: forro To. You give me. I know it's a low number, 1013 00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:05,799 Speaker 3: but give me under three and a half. That is 1014 00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:09,520 Speaker 3: my favorite belt, favorite bet in the Belt. You agree there? 1015 00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:10,879 Speaker 3: And anything else? 1016 00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:14,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, the jump the gun there on old dominion under 1017 00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:15,400 Speaker 2: I love that. 1018 00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:16,279 Speaker 4: And then the over. 1019 00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:18,279 Speaker 2: I think the team that's not being raded properly in 1020 00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:21,279 Speaker 2: terms of to South Alabama is Troy. I love Troy 1021 00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:23,120 Speaker 2: this year. I would still take the over at eight. 1022 00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:26,800 Speaker 2: This is a team that I project nine point three wins, 1023 00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:28,120 Speaker 2: so I would even take it at eight and a half. 1024 00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,759 Speaker 2: I'd even take a little bit at nine. They are 1025 00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:32,840 Speaker 2: a class above. When it comes to a from an 1026 00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:35,200 Speaker 2: offensive perspective, they return eighty percent of their offense. But 1027 00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:38,399 Speaker 2: the strength of this team is on the defense, top 1028 00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:40,759 Speaker 2: ten and finishing drives. If you guys haven't seen out 1029 00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:42,760 Speaker 2: on Action Network, I put out a piece last week 1030 00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:47,000 Speaker 2: about how success rate, explosiveness, and finishing drives applies to 1031 00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:48,840 Speaker 2: covering tickets against the spread. 1032 00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:50,240 Speaker 3: Shocker. 1033 00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:53,120 Speaker 2: It's all about finishing drives, and that is something. Troy 1034 00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:54,919 Speaker 2: is a top ten team on a defense. I don't 1035 00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,160 Speaker 2: expect that to change, even though they return about just 1036 00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,560 Speaker 2: sixty percent of their defense. It doesn't matter. It's scheme, 1037 00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:03,880 Speaker 2: it's coach derivative. Troy right there definitely is ripe for 1038 00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:06,799 Speaker 2: more over tickets, even at eight and a half or nine. 1039 00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:12,319 Speaker 3: All right, good stuff there. Let's move on to Conference USA, 1040 00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:14,280 Speaker 3: the new look Conference USA. 1041 00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:15,760 Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with New. 1042 00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:21,279 Speaker 3: Mexico State under six at even money. If you want 1043 00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:24,560 Speaker 3: to pay the more expensive just just go under six 1044 00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,040 Speaker 3: and a half. You could do that, but I prefer 1045 00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:29,960 Speaker 3: in this case to go under six plus one hundred. 1046 00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:36,080 Speaker 3: First of all, this big numbers play, I show enough 1047 00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:39,440 Speaker 3: edge to get involved here just from a pure projection standpoint. 1048 00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:41,960 Speaker 4: But let's make the case. 1049 00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:46,040 Speaker 3: Of why I love this New Mexico State is getting 1050 00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:47,560 Speaker 3: way too much love in the market. 1051 00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:48,799 Speaker 4: I really don't get it. 1052 00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:52,399 Speaker 3: Maybe because of the way they finished last year, and 1053 00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:56,040 Speaker 3: they did go six and six in the regular season, 1054 00:53:56,760 --> 00:53:58,279 Speaker 3: but let's take a look at how they got there. 1055 00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:04,719 Speaker 3: They beat a completely rebuilding mess of a Hawaii team, 1056 00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:11,399 Speaker 3: They beat New Mexico. They beat U Mass and then 1057 00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:15,239 Speaker 3: and Lamar and then Lamar. Those are their first four wins. Hawaii, 1058 00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:21,520 Speaker 3: New Mexico, U Mass and Lamar. Then they beat Liberty, 1059 00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:26,040 Speaker 3: impressed the win right, Liberty quit never showed up with 1060 00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:28,960 Speaker 3: all the Hugh Freeze rumors, didn't get off the bus. 1061 00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:33,560 Speaker 3: So New Mexico State said, oh, we want to go 1062 00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:37,240 Speaker 3: to a bowl. Then they scheduled Valparaiso and beat Valparaiso. 1063 00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:42,319 Speaker 3: So there are six wins in the regular season where Hawaii, 1064 00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:51,000 Speaker 3: New Mexico, U Mass, Lamar, Valparaiso and the Corpse of Liberty. 1065 00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:57,719 Speaker 3: That was their six wins. So this two s c yeah, 1066 00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:02,600 Speaker 3: two scs, A corpse completely rebuilding brand new Hawaii team 1067 00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:08,759 Speaker 3: UMass in New Mexico, I mean, an absolute joke. Their 1068 00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:11,399 Speaker 3: win total last year was three. That's what they were 1069 00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:15,520 Speaker 3: on pace to do now at six, I get the 1070 00:55:15,560 --> 00:55:19,720 Speaker 3: schedule is easy, but I look, they got argument that 1071 00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:23,600 Speaker 3: it's a gonna be the easiest schedule of any FBS team. 1072 00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:27,239 Speaker 3: They played thirteen games, by the way, probably like nine 1073 00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:30,320 Speaker 3: or winnable, but I don't think they're going seven and 1074 00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:34,799 Speaker 3: two in those games. I could even see them losing 1075 00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:41,000 Speaker 3: to UMass in the opener. The offense returns a lot, 1076 00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:44,640 Speaker 3: but it's bad. The defense was the strength of the 1077 00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:46,799 Speaker 3: team last year. I liked a lot on the back 1078 00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:50,800 Speaker 3: end of that day. Tons of losses at linebacker and 1079 00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:57,359 Speaker 3: especially in the secondary safety really really problematic area in 1080 00:55:57,400 --> 00:55:59,359 Speaker 3: my opinion, and last year that was a strength. So 1081 00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:00,960 Speaker 3: I think the defense is going to take a big 1082 00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:04,359 Speaker 3: step back. The offense still stinks, and I just can't 1083 00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:05,880 Speaker 3: get to this number. 1084 00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:07,600 Speaker 4: At all. 1085 00:56:07,680 --> 00:56:11,960 Speaker 3: So yeah, give me New Mexico State under six should 1086 00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:14,120 Speaker 3: be a fun one to sweat. So they play a 1087 00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:18,280 Speaker 3: ton of bad teams, but I take this team wind 1088 00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:21,319 Speaker 3: up with more than the four to five range, So yeah, 1089 00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:24,839 Speaker 3: give me under six. Any thoughts there, and you got 1090 00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:26,040 Speaker 3: anything in Conference USA? 1091 00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:29,319 Speaker 2: No, I completely agree with you. I've got one. I've 1092 00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,360 Speaker 2: got two more conference essays. I'll be real quick. I 1093 00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:34,560 Speaker 2: love Liberty to go to the championship game, so I 1094 00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:38,120 Speaker 2: took them plus two fifty to win outright of the 1095 00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:40,759 Speaker 2: Conference USA, only seven of the nine teams are even 1096 00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:44,600 Speaker 2: eligible to get into this Conference USA championship game. Liberty 1097 00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:46,880 Speaker 2: by far returns more than anybody. I do believe in 1098 00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:49,560 Speaker 2: Jamie Chadwell coming to town running a different offense. He's 1099 00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:52,520 Speaker 2: got plenty of quarterbacks out there. We can debate whether 1100 00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:54,640 Speaker 2: Cayden Salter is good or not, and the rest of 1101 00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:57,000 Speaker 2: the quarterbacks on this roster are good or not. But 1102 00:56:57,040 --> 00:56:59,160 Speaker 2: I think they're good enough to get to the championship game. 1103 00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:01,440 Speaker 2: Potentially it gets Western Kentucky, but if you get there 1104 00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:03,000 Speaker 2: at a plus two to fifty, you can do whatever 1105 00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,160 Speaker 2: you want with that ticket. The other one I'll pick 1106 00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:07,600 Speaker 2: on is Middle Tennessee under six and a half. This 1107 00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:10,160 Speaker 2: is not getting enough attention in the market. Win total 1108 00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:12,880 Speaker 2: projection for me is at four point nine. They returned 1109 00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:16,160 Speaker 2: less than ten percent of their passing yards. Chase Cunningham 1110 00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:20,240 Speaker 2: is out after five years. They're essentially a toss up 1111 00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:25,360 Speaker 2: at every single position on the roster. They're top ranked 1112 00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:28,240 Speaker 2: pass breakup d they only return about forty four percent 1113 00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:32,320 Speaker 2: to those pass breakups and then just everything across the board. 1114 00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:34,880 Speaker 2: Thirty nine percent of the offense returns only fifty five 1115 00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:37,560 Speaker 2: percent of the defense returns. You start the season with 1116 00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:41,080 Speaker 2: Alabama and Missou, So Middle Tennessee is going to struggle 1117 00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:44,600 Speaker 2: with depth, identifying starters and then identifying a second string. 1118 00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,600 Speaker 2: And you're starting your season with Alabama and Missouri, Like, 1119 00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:50,000 Speaker 2: what are you going to be from an injury perspective 1120 00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:52,160 Speaker 2: when you get to the end of September here, that 1121 00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:54,400 Speaker 2: is something I would heavily worry about. But this schedule, 1122 00:57:54,440 --> 00:57:56,560 Speaker 2: I don't see how you get to seven wins, so 1123 00:57:56,920 --> 00:58:00,720 Speaker 2: project them four point nine. I don't think this is 1124 00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:02,560 Speaker 2: going to sweat and I don't think this is getting 1125 00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:06,600 Speaker 2: enough attention in the market. So you know, we'll see 1126 00:58:06,600 --> 00:58:08,240 Speaker 2: what they can do. They were top twenty and tackling 1127 00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:10,200 Speaker 2: and havoc last year, but you lose so much off 1128 00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:12,320 Speaker 2: of that defense, I'm not sure you can replicate it. 1129 00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:14,840 Speaker 2: So Middle Tennessee under. 1130 00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:19,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the schedules for their home schedule is 1131 00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:23,040 Speaker 3: pretty easy, but I actually show a tad bit of 1132 00:58:23,120 --> 00:58:28,960 Speaker 3: value on that as well. All right, let's move on 1133 00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:34,560 Speaker 3: to the Mountain West. I'll kick things off with Utah 1134 00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:41,480 Speaker 3: State under five wins minus one thirty five. It's what 1135 00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:44,960 Speaker 3: I bet last night. Still can find that out there. 1136 00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:47,480 Speaker 3: I'm super low on this team, which was just gutted 1137 00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:52,120 Speaker 3: by departures in the offseason, a number of really important 1138 00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:57,120 Speaker 3: defenders left in the spring. All of the quotes from Anderson, 1139 00:58:57,280 --> 00:59:01,080 Speaker 3: who also has two new coordinators calling plays this year, 1140 00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:04,680 Speaker 3: it just seems like he knows that this team's gonna 1141 00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:07,080 Speaker 3: be bad. Everything that I'm hearing, and he's like, we 1142 00:59:07,160 --> 00:59:09,520 Speaker 3: just can't afford to have this much turnover and it 1143 00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:12,240 Speaker 3: might be a rough Yeah, Like if you kind of 1144 00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:15,400 Speaker 3: just read between the lines, I think he's kind of 1145 00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:17,720 Speaker 3: telling us that this team is going to struggle. I'm 1146 00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:20,919 Speaker 3: not a Cooper Legac guy. You know, they lose their 1147 00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:24,680 Speaker 3: star running back, offensive line is gutted, and if you 1148 00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:27,439 Speaker 3: look last year, this is a team that went six 1149 00:59:27,520 --> 00:59:31,840 Speaker 3: and seven. They and by the way, all those spring 1150 00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:36,919 Speaker 3: departures another bad sign. But they went six and seven 1151 00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:40,800 Speaker 3: last year, seven losses by double digits, four to zero 1152 00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:45,440 Speaker 3: and one possession games. Also could have some special teams regression, 1153 00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:49,720 Speaker 3: close game regression, and last year similar to Mexico State. 1154 00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:53,200 Speaker 3: Let's break down this schedule Okay, so they basically just 1155 00:59:53,200 --> 00:59:56,160 Speaker 3: got blown out and then won other close games. But 1156 00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:59,640 Speaker 3: who do they play. They got that rebuilding Hawaii team 1157 00:59:59,720 --> 01:00:03,880 Speaker 3: just like New Mexico State. They played the rebuilding Colorado's 1158 01:00:03,880 --> 01:00:09,240 Speaker 3: state team with their third string quarterback making they're his 1159 01:00:09,720 --> 01:00:13,280 Speaker 3: collegiate debut, and it was a disaster. I think, like 1160 01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:14,960 Speaker 3: it's only threw for like eighty yards in that game 1161 01:00:14,960 --> 01:00:16,880 Speaker 3: and they won by like thirteen to ten or something. 1162 01:00:17,600 --> 01:00:23,439 Speaker 3: They also played the fading, tanking San Jose State team 1163 01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:25,040 Speaker 3: at the end of the year, who just wasn't the 1164 01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:30,520 Speaker 3: same after that tragedy on campus. Also played New Mexico's 1165 01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:33,400 Speaker 3: New Mexico's backup, So I mean, how they got to 1166 01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:36,080 Speaker 3: their six wins was just a joke, just one close 1167 01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:42,200 Speaker 3: games against backups and rebuilding teams. Well, now the schedule 1168 01:00:43,000 --> 01:00:48,040 Speaker 3: gets just exponentially tougher than it was last year. That 1169 01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:50,680 Speaker 3: the only team in the Mountain West to play all 1170 01:00:50,760 --> 01:00:57,520 Speaker 3: five top projected finishers. And if you look like I 1171 01:00:57,640 --> 01:01:02,000 Speaker 3: just don't see where six wins are gonna come from. 1172 01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:04,680 Speaker 3: Here's if you break down the schedule from a projection 1173 01:01:04,760 --> 01:01:09,360 Speaker 3: standpoint based on my power ratings, they will beat Idaho 1174 01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:14,440 Speaker 3: State and there I have them double digit dogs in 1175 01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:19,240 Speaker 3: eight games, so right there, like if they win the others, 1176 01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:22,000 Speaker 3: which is Idaho State, will give them that win a 1177 01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:22,720 Speaker 3: coin flip. 1178 01:01:22,760 --> 01:01:23,840 Speaker 4: I have at New Mexico. 1179 01:01:25,520 --> 01:01:29,920 Speaker 3: Uh, you know they'll be maybe Nevada's gonna be Novada 1180 01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:32,640 Speaker 3: is gonna be a little better, but Utah State will 1181 01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:35,200 Speaker 3: be favored in that game. Maybe I don't know close. 1182 01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:40,720 Speaker 3: So touchdown seven to ten tops, So let's give them 1183 01:01:40,720 --> 01:01:42,640 Speaker 3: that win. So let's give them Nevada, Let's give them 1184 01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:47,320 Speaker 3: Idaho State. They get Colorado State and at New Mexico. 1185 01:01:47,360 --> 01:01:50,560 Speaker 3: Those are two coin flips, and then eight games is 1186 01:01:50,600 --> 01:01:55,040 Speaker 3: double digit underdogs at Iowa at air Force JMU at 1187 01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:59,880 Speaker 3: Yukon Fresno, at San Jose State at San Diego State Boys. 1188 01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:03,520 Speaker 3: Where how is this team getting the six wins? I 1189 01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:07,400 Speaker 3: don't like anything that's going on here. Major losses at 1190 01:02:07,400 --> 01:02:12,360 Speaker 3: defensive end, in the secondary, those two important receivers, they're 1191 01:02:12,400 --> 01:02:16,200 Speaker 3: star running back close. Game regression is coming, schedule gets 1192 01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:19,479 Speaker 3: a lot harder. You know Anderson's hitting. This is gonna 1193 01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:21,200 Speaker 3: be bad. He's trying to call plays now with new 1194 01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:23,360 Speaker 3: coordinators and while trying to manage the team with all 1195 01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:26,520 Speaker 3: his turnover I think it's going to be ugly. Give 1196 01:02:26,520 --> 01:02:30,680 Speaker 3: me the under Utah State under five. Agree there and 1197 01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:31,240 Speaker 3: anything else you. 1198 01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:34,200 Speaker 2: See, completely agree. But I'm going to switch over because 1199 01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:36,920 Speaker 2: we are a Colorado State podcast. We are a Jay 1200 01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:40,600 Speaker 2: Norville podcast. So you know I did take Mountain West. 1201 01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:42,560 Speaker 2: My long shot future was them to win the Mountain 1202 01:02:42,560 --> 01:02:44,160 Speaker 2: West of forty to one. I would still take that 1203 01:02:44,200 --> 01:02:47,080 Speaker 2: as a long shot future. You know, low investment, but 1204 01:02:47,080 --> 01:02:48,760 Speaker 2: I would still take it down to about twenty five 1205 01:02:48,800 --> 01:02:51,479 Speaker 2: to one. I love what's going on in Colorado State. 1206 01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:54,640 Speaker 2: This was a completely revamped roster last year. Jay Norvell 1207 01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:57,760 Speaker 2: stepped into a situation where completely starting from scratch. We 1208 01:02:57,880 --> 01:03:00,520 Speaker 2: call it, you know, not a year zero, more like 1209 01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:03,200 Speaker 2: a year negative one. This season, what they did prove 1210 01:03:03,320 --> 01:03:06,880 Speaker 2: last years the quarterback Clay Millken hit Tory Horton anywhere 1211 01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:11,200 Speaker 2: in the field probably yeah, Tory Horton probably the most 1212 01:03:11,200 --> 01:03:13,920 Speaker 2: explosive wide receiver on a G five level. And when 1213 01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:17,240 Speaker 2: after talking to Jay Norvel this summer, you know, Justice 1214 01:03:17,320 --> 01:03:20,080 Speaker 2: Ross Simmons, it's a named. I talked to him a 1215 01:03:20,120 --> 01:03:22,360 Speaker 2: Mountain West media days because you guys didn't know I 1216 01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:25,800 Speaker 2: was there, and he told me that Justice Ross Simmons 1217 01:03:25,880 --> 01:03:29,000 Speaker 2: was going to be a huge name this fall for 1218 01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:31,280 Speaker 2: you fantasy players out there, if you're looking for a 1219 01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:34,360 Speaker 2: cheap sleeper, justice Ross Simmons is definitely the guy I 1220 01:03:34,400 --> 01:03:36,280 Speaker 2: would look at. But they're going to be explosive from 1221 01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:39,480 Speaker 2: the wide receiver position. Yes, I understand that the offensive 1222 01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:43,360 Speaker 2: line does not have the depth. Injuries could hurt this team, 1223 01:03:44,040 --> 01:03:47,400 Speaker 2: but at the same time, they have enough potent skill 1224 01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:51,840 Speaker 2: position players to make a rumbling in a conference full 1225 01:03:51,880 --> 01:03:55,280 Speaker 2: of offenses that are kind of anemic. So I definitely 1226 01:03:55,280 --> 01:03:58,480 Speaker 2: like Colorado State from that standpoint. And you know one 1227 01:03:58,480 --> 01:04:00,840 Speaker 2: of those anemic ones was Wyoming. I took them thirteen 1228 01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:02,360 Speaker 2: to one to win. The Mountain West would take it 1229 01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:04,920 Speaker 2: down to twelve to eleven to one wherever the market 1230 01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:07,400 Speaker 2: might be. But this is the best defense in the 1231 01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:10,840 Speaker 2: Mountain West offense might be the worst, but you know what, 1232 01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:12,800 Speaker 2: the bar was so low last year. There's only one 1233 01:04:12,840 --> 01:04:13,240 Speaker 2: way to go. 1234 01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:13,720 Speaker 4: But up. 1235 01:04:13,960 --> 01:04:15,960 Speaker 2: There's not really anything I could say is you know 1236 01:04:16,000 --> 01:04:17,600 Speaker 2: what they're gonna do offensively. You know it's going to 1237 01:04:17,640 --> 01:04:20,480 Speaker 2: be about seventy percent run, ground and pound, and then 1238 01:04:20,480 --> 01:04:21,720 Speaker 2: the defense is going to try to do the thing. 1239 01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:23,479 Speaker 2: Cost some hav it and get some scores that way. 1240 01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:26,040 Speaker 2: So if they get any kind of elevated play from 1241 01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:29,640 Speaker 2: the offensive side of the ball, Mountain Wyoming definitely has 1242 01:04:29,720 --> 01:04:33,440 Speaker 2: potential to play in the championship game. So other than that, 1243 01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:35,480 Speaker 2: I got a lot of negativity for Boise State on 1244 01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:38,200 Speaker 2: the under. It's a number I project below even the 1245 01:04:38,240 --> 01:04:40,200 Speaker 2: eight and a half that it's at now. I'm not 1246 01:04:40,240 --> 01:04:42,560 Speaker 2: a fan of bush Hampton coming in at offensive coordinator. 1247 01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:44,600 Speaker 2: He's going to run something different than what Dirk Codd 1248 01:04:44,720 --> 01:04:47,880 Speaker 2: did last year, who turned Tailing Green into a different quarterback. 1249 01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:50,160 Speaker 2: Let him loose outside the pocket and do what you 1250 01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:52,640 Speaker 2: know he does best. And bush Hammon comes in and says, 1251 01:04:52,680 --> 01:04:54,360 Speaker 2: I would like to limit Taylor Green to leaving the 1252 01:04:54,400 --> 01:04:58,160 Speaker 2: pocket just five to eight times in a game. Well, 1253 01:04:58,400 --> 01:05:00,360 Speaker 2: he needs to get out there about fifteen times to 1254 01:05:00,360 --> 01:05:05,240 Speaker 2: make this Boise State offense go. I don't have confidence 1255 01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:08,480 Speaker 2: that Hamm can call a better game than Cotter, and 1256 01:05:08,520 --> 01:05:10,920 Speaker 2: I don't have confidence the Tailor Greens is gonna be 1257 01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:13,600 Speaker 2: a better quarterback under this new regime at offensive coordinator. 1258 01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:16,760 Speaker 2: So I'm going against Boise on the under on the 1259 01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:17,560 Speaker 2: season win total. 1260 01:05:18,760 --> 01:05:21,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, good getting back to Colorado State. They could if 1261 01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:24,760 Speaker 3: they can just somehow figure out the offensive line in 1262 01:05:24,840 --> 01:05:27,080 Speaker 3: thee that could be one of the most improved teams 1263 01:05:27,080 --> 01:05:30,640 Speaker 3: in the country. I think the defense, I like some 1264 01:05:30,760 --> 01:05:34,400 Speaker 3: of the pieces they brought in a defense really experienced 1265 01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:37,200 Speaker 3: unit there. And it's year two of the air raid. 1266 01:05:37,560 --> 01:05:41,120 Speaker 3: I love Horton And if you look back, Jane Norvel, 1267 01:05:41,240 --> 01:05:44,080 Speaker 3: year two of the air raid to Nevada, I went 1268 01:05:44,080 --> 01:05:46,880 Speaker 3: from three to nine to eight and five. And if 1269 01:05:46,880 --> 01:05:50,840 Speaker 3: they figure out that offensive line, the upside is there. 1270 01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:53,360 Speaker 3: And by the way, they get to host Boise Air Force, 1271 01:05:53,600 --> 01:05:56,800 Speaker 3: San Diego State and avoid Fresno, which means they don't 1272 01:05:56,800 --> 01:05:59,280 Speaker 3: face any of the top four projected teams on the road, 1273 01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:03,320 Speaker 3: which you have to like. If that offensive line is 1274 01:06:04,600 --> 01:06:07,920 Speaker 3: together and takes a big step because it was a message, 1275 01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:11,680 Speaker 3: it gives you gether like five sacks per game. They 1276 01:06:11,720 --> 01:06:14,720 Speaker 3: then they could scare Washington State in the opener. 1277 01:06:15,520 --> 01:06:18,080 Speaker 2: They should not be getting ten points against Colorado in 1278 01:06:18,120 --> 01:06:19,760 Speaker 2: the game of the airline. If you can find I 1279 01:06:19,800 --> 01:06:21,720 Speaker 2: know there's a couple of shops in Vegas. There might 1280 01:06:21,760 --> 01:06:23,640 Speaker 2: be able to find it in other states otherwhere, but 1281 01:06:24,640 --> 01:06:27,760 Speaker 2: plus ten against Colorado, look at Colorado's schedule, you're gonna 1282 01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:30,040 Speaker 2: come off of what Nebraska and you got Oregon on 1283 01:06:30,080 --> 01:06:32,480 Speaker 2: the look ahead Colors. They should not be getting ten 1284 01:06:32,520 --> 01:06:34,440 Speaker 2: points against Colorado. So that is definitely a game of 1285 01:06:34,480 --> 01:06:38,000 Speaker 2: the aarplay. 1286 01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:40,920 Speaker 3: All right, that we'll do it for ten conferences anything, 1287 01:06:41,040 --> 01:06:42,360 Speaker 3: do you have anything in Uh? 1288 01:06:44,320 --> 01:06:46,000 Speaker 4: All of our Notre Dame. 1289 01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:48,920 Speaker 3: Fan listeners always get mad because we go through the 1290 01:06:48,920 --> 01:06:54,200 Speaker 3: conferences and then don't give enough attention to the independence 1291 01:06:54,280 --> 01:06:57,360 Speaker 3: which are dwindling. We're down to just Army, Notre Dame, 1292 01:06:58,080 --> 01:07:03,200 Speaker 3: Yukon and Mass. Anything you like or want to mention 1293 01:07:04,040 --> 01:07:04,720 Speaker 3: the independents. 1294 01:07:06,400 --> 01:07:08,160 Speaker 2: Now, I'll save all the Notre Dame talk for our 1295 01:07:08,200 --> 01:07:10,280 Speaker 2: week zero podcast. Make sure and tune in for that. 1296 01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:12,880 Speaker 2: I have money down on Navy, so I'll have a 1297 01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:18,080 Speaker 2: full explanation on that. And that's a huge game to 1298 01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:19,720 Speaker 2: break down this weekend, So I'll save the Notre Dame 1299 01:07:19,800 --> 01:07:20,360 Speaker 2: chatter for that. 1300 01:07:21,760 --> 01:07:26,400 Speaker 3: Perfect Yeah, and I'll save the U Mass chatter for 1301 01:07:26,880 --> 01:07:30,840 Speaker 3: the week zero podcast. Army could be a messed and 1302 01:07:31,000 --> 01:07:33,640 Speaker 3: Army just lost a quarterback for the season who could 1303 01:07:33,640 --> 01:07:37,400 Speaker 3: have started as well, so yep, and we'll be sure 1304 01:07:37,440 --> 01:07:39,920 Speaker 3: to talk about Yukon as well. But nothing from a 1305 01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:44,760 Speaker 3: wind total perspective from either of us there great stuff. 1306 01:07:45,000 --> 01:07:48,080 Speaker 3: I hope you enjoyed this recap. Make sure you also 1307 01:07:48,160 --> 01:07:52,000 Speaker 3: check out the Action Network Gap and all of the 1308 01:07:52,040 --> 01:08:00,120 Speaker 3: previous preseason conference preview episodes for more in depth analysis 1309 01:08:00,520 --> 01:08:04,840 Speaker 3: on every single team in college football. We do have 1310 01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:09,200 Speaker 3: one final order of business. We are going to unveil 1311 01:08:09,760 --> 01:08:17,040 Speaker 3: our second annual Action Network All American Team. First team offense, 1312 01:08:17,360 --> 01:08:22,960 Speaker 3: quarterback Caleb Williams, USC running back, Twinshot Judkins, Ole Miss 1313 01:08:23,400 --> 01:08:29,000 Speaker 3: wide receiver, Marvin Harrison junior, Ohio State wide receiver, Romadons, 1314 01:08:29,120 --> 01:08:35,160 Speaker 3: Washington wide receiver, Jacob Cowing Arizona tight end, Rock Bowers, 1315 01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:44,559 Speaker 3: Georgia offensive tackle, Olushunu Penn State offensive guard, Cooper Bebee 1316 01:08:44,880 --> 01:08:52,560 Speaker 3: Kansas State center, Bo Limmer, Arkansas offensive guard, Christian Mahogany, 1317 01:08:52,920 --> 01:08:59,479 Speaker 3: Boston College offensive tackle JC Latham Alabama first team defense 1318 01:08:59,640 --> 01:09:05,799 Speaker 3: defense end, Jared Vers Florida State defensive end, Latu Latou, 1319 01:09:06,360 --> 01:09:13,080 Speaker 3: UCLA defensive tackle, Dion Walker, Kentucky defensive tackle, Junior Tafuna, 1320 01:09:13,720 --> 01:09:21,280 Speaker 3: Utah linebacker, Harold Perkins, LSU linebacker, Junior Colson Michigan linebacker, 1321 01:09:21,360 --> 01:09:28,200 Speaker 3: Barrett Carter, Clemson cornerback, kool Aid McKinstry, Alabama cornerback Kaylin King, 1322 01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:36,080 Speaker 3: Penn State safety Cameron Kinchins Miami safety Javon Bullard, Georgia 1323 01:09:36,800 --> 01:09:43,759 Speaker 3: First Team Specialist, kicker Joshua Cardy, Stanford Hunter, Torry Taylor, 1324 01:09:44,240 --> 01:09:50,439 Speaker 3: Iowa returner Jalen Lucas, Indiana Offensive Player of the Year, 1325 01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:56,240 Speaker 3: Caleb Williams Defensive Player of the Year, kool Aid McKinstry. 1326 01:09:57,240 --> 01:10:02,560 Speaker 3: So that is the second annual Action Network All American Team. 1327 01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:06,320 Speaker 3: I'll share my thoughts with you later and later in 1328 01:10:06,320 --> 01:10:08,240 Speaker 3: the week when I go through it on the podcast, 1329 01:10:08,280 --> 01:10:10,640 Speaker 3: I'll say where I disagree, but I will call you 1330 01:10:10,640 --> 01:10:12,120 Speaker 3: a homer. I knew that there was going to be 1331 01:10:12,120 --> 01:10:15,679 Speaker 3: at least one Arkansas player on there. You snuck Limer 1332 01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:20,960 Speaker 3: in at center. But good stuff there. Check out Actionnework 1333 01:10:21,000 --> 01:10:24,400 Speaker 3: dot com the Action Network Gap if you also want 1334 01:10:24,439 --> 01:10:26,719 Speaker 3: to see the recap there. 1335 01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:30,040 Speaker 4: But that'll do it for us. Thanks to our. 1336 01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:33,559 Speaker 3: Producer Matt Mitchell, Thanks to Mike and Mike for sharing 1337 01:10:33,600 --> 01:10:36,640 Speaker 3: their thoughts, Thanks as always, of course, to Colin, and 1338 01:10:36,680 --> 01:10:39,040 Speaker 3: thanks to all of you for tuning in. We are 1339 01:10:39,160 --> 01:10:42,920 Speaker 3: less than a week away. Get all of your win 1340 01:10:43,040 --> 01:10:47,400 Speaker 3: totals futures in, make sure you shop around and get 1341 01:10:47,439 --> 01:10:51,519 Speaker 3: ready for week zero with us on the Week zero 1342 01:10:51,640 --> 01:10:56,759 Speaker 3: preview episode, which will be out on Thursday morning. Cannot wait, 1343 01:10:57,080 --> 01:11:00,320 Speaker 3: Let's have a season. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure 1344 01:11:00,320 --> 01:11:03,160 Speaker 3: you subscribe on Subscribe, subscribe, Tell a friend, tell an enemy. 1345 01:11:03,760 --> 01:11:05,360 Speaker 3: You know that, do you, I'll leave a five star review, 1346 01:11:05,680 --> 01:11:09,200 Speaker 3: I'll i'll do giveaways, doesn't matter what you say, just 1347 01:11:09,280 --> 01:11:10,840 Speaker 3: leave a five star view. That really helps us out, 1348 01:11:10,880 --> 01:11:13,280 Speaker 3: especially at this time of the year. But that'll do 1349 01:11:13,320 --> 01:11:16,799 Speaker 3: it for us. It's time to go crack the books 1350 01:11:16,800 --> 01:11:20,000 Speaker 3: and find some Week zero and Week one winners. 1351 01:11:20,920 --> 01:11:24,599 Speaker 4: We'll see y'all later in the week. Cheers. Peace Out. 1352 01:11:37,080 --> 01:11:41,600 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1353 01:11:41,640 --> 01:11:44,439 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 1354 01:11:44,439 --> 01:11:47,599 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler