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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast. Are you going to place a bet?

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Speaker 2: Or walk?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. This

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Speaker 3: is the Player Props edition of our Experts Guide to

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Speaker 3: Betting series. I'm your host, Maria Marino, join once again

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Speaker 3: by Chris Rabon and Sean Kerner, our player prop betting experts.

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Speaker 3: Chris and Sean can be heard every week this fall,

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Speaker 3: both here on the Action Network podcast as well as

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Speaker 3: the Fantasy Flex Podcast. Guys, we just talked recently about

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Speaker 3: fantasy football.

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Speaker 4: Good to have you back.

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Speaker 2: How we doing, Oh, we are doing very well. Perhaps

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Speaker 2: is my Perhaps is my favorite topic. I'm ready to

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Speaker 2: go with this, segree. We're gonna use all of the

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Speaker 2: allotted time and then so this one.

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Speaker 3: Oh wow, okay, great, well I better not waste any

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Speaker 3: more time. But before we get into this, let's just

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Speaker 3: talk about what makes you an expert player props. What

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Speaker 3: are your qualifications? What sports do you typically target? Sean,

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Speaker 3: We'll start with you.

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Speaker 5: So, I mean, I've been a profitable player prop better

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Speaker 5: for over a decade now, almost two decades, but the

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Speaker 5: market was so primitive back then. Can't go back that far,

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Speaker 5: but you know, I specialized in player projections and have

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Speaker 5: won numerous accuracy awards in NFL and MLB projections. You

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Speaker 5: can see them around me, and I target all sports

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Speaker 5: really like any I'll bet on anything if I can

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Speaker 5: make a projection on it, but I would say the

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Speaker 5: most that ones are NFL obviously, college football, MLB, college basketball,

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Speaker 5: NBA WNBA, so I guess everything about the NHL.

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Speaker 4: How about you, Rayvaughn, Yeah, same thing.

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Speaker 2: Got some of the accuracy football accuracy trophies behind me

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Speaker 2: and the reads, and I strive to get those projections

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Speaker 2: so accurate is because I am using them not just

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Speaker 2: for fantasy football each but specifically for player props. So

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Speaker 2: even when it comes to like a fourth receiver, I

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Speaker 2: need to have that very very accurate, as the people

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Speaker 2: that follow me very well know. And if you look

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Speaker 2: in my bets in the action app, I am like

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Speaker 2: my most bet type of bet is usually props for

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Speaker 2: NFL NBA, So love props, and I think that the

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Speaker 2: prop market is there's just so many different bets, so

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Speaker 2: you don't have to restrict yourself to sides and totals.

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Speaker 2: A lot of times the only bet I'll have on

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Speaker 2: a game is a prop, so I've bet thousands and

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Speaker 2: thousands of props with a pretty good record, I must

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Speaker 2: say yes.

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Speaker 3: And those records can be found in playing site on

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Speaker 3: the Action app. Definitely a good idea to follow these

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Speaker 3: two on there. But what I want to know is,

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Speaker 3: you know, how hard is it for a regular listener

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Speaker 3: out there, or you know, an average better to become

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Speaker 3: good and profitable at.

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Speaker 4: Betting player props? Can it be done?

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Speaker 5: Sean, of course it could be done. It's not something

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Speaker 5: that can happen overnight. And I can't give you magical

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Speaker 5: advice in the next few minutes here to make you

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Speaker 5: successful better. But you know a lot of people are

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Speaker 5: watching the game, a lot of people have, you know,

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Speaker 5: played fancy football. They're more into it the players. And

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Speaker 5: actually it's probably tougher to get into spread and total betting.

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Speaker 5: So I think player props are a great way to

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Speaker 5: get into sports betting in general because you're typically just

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Speaker 5: focusing on that one player, that one stat, so it's

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Speaker 5: easier to kind of pne your process. And again, it's

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Speaker 5: not something that happens overnight. And the best thing I

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Speaker 5: could say is, you know, whenever I give out a

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Speaker 5: play on the app, I explain my reasoning either in

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Speaker 5: the app and our discord or a written piece or

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Speaker 5: on Green Dot Daily. I try to like show exactly

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Speaker 5: my process for every bet so you know, the more

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Speaker 5: you listen to Raybon and myself, you'll get a better

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Speaker 5: sense of like what exactly we're looking for for various things,

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Speaker 5: or what we're trying to avoid. But really it's just

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Speaker 5: getting started and getting your feet wet with it, starting

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Speaker 5: your own process and knowing what works what doesn't work,

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Speaker 5: and hopefully we can cover some of those things today.

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Speaker 3: Well, if you didn't know, Sean is at the Oddsmaker

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Speaker 3: in the Action app, and of course Chris Raybon there

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Speaker 3: as well, And you also mentioned Sean and Theregreen Dot

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Speaker 3: Daily if you didn't know, I'll be back hosting that

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Speaker 3: on a daily basis come football season.

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Speaker 4: But Raybon, I mean, what does it take in your.

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Speaker 3: Mind for a regular person out there to become good

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Speaker 3: at betting player props?

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Speaker 2: So I think the first thing you have to understand

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Speaker 2: is that this is a very sensitive market because the

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Speaker 2: books aren't spending as much time creating props because there's

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Speaker 2: so many of them, so they're kind of letting the

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Speaker 2: market move the numbers. So what the average person does

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Speaker 2: is they see matchup, they were like, Oh, this guy

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Speaker 2: has a good matchup, I'm gonna bet the over. That's

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Speaker 2: probably ninety five percent of prop betters is just betting over.

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Speaker 2: So the first thing bet unders like this is this

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Speaker 2: is my advice for sides, totals and props as well.

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Speaker 1: Look at unders, Get good at unders.

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Speaker 2: Get good at identifying situations in which you are can

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Speaker 2: reliably predict unders. For example, people that follow me know

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Speaker 2: I'm really good at betting unders on third and fourth

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Speaker 2: wide receiver types, backup tight ends in NFL, things like that.

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Speaker 2: You know, because a lot of times those are just

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Speaker 2: you know, the average person is it's not going to

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Speaker 2: be easy to just spot that, but it's also not

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Speaker 2: gonna be easy for the books to set those lines.

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Speaker 2: So I would say, kind of focus on a particular

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Speaker 2: type of market and get good at that specific market,

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Speaker 2: and also be fast.

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Speaker 1: Bet fast if you have.

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Speaker 2: If you feel good about a prop, bet it now,

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Speaker 2: don't wait because these lines will move. So a lot

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Speaker 2: of times, for example, Sean will come on Green Dot

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Speaker 2: daily or convince me and he'll give out a line

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Speaker 2: and it'll be like under thirty six and a half

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Speaker 2: receiving yards and before the words are even out of

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Speaker 2: his mouth, it's down to thirty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: So definitely want to be fast.

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Speaker 2: And that's where the notifications in the action app come

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Speaker 2: in handy, because you can get a notification the minute

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Speaker 2: Sean or myself or anyone else posts a prop bet.

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Speaker 2: And the last thing I would say, uh is start

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Speaker 2: to get an understanding of juice and implied probability. Juice

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Speaker 2: just means, you know, on a normal side or total bet,

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Speaker 2: the juice is minus one ten on either side. Usually

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Speaker 2: you have to bet one hundred and ten to win

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Speaker 2: one hundred, But on props it's usually not going to

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Speaker 2: be even right, so you have to understand what you know,

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Speaker 2: a minus one fifty means that means about a sixty

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Speaker 2: percent implied probability. You have to understand things like that

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Speaker 2: to then understand what exactly you're betting on, because there's

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Speaker 2: rarely going to be a prop where it's minus one

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Speaker 2: ten on either side. And I know a lot of

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Speaker 2: people that when they look to bet props, they're looking

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Speaker 2: for those props that are you know, kind of even

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Speaker 2: rejuiced or plus juice even, and you're not you're just

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Speaker 2: not going to find many of those, and if you do,

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Speaker 2: they're probably bad odds anyway. So you really want to

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Speaker 2: start to get an understanding of juice and implied probability,

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Speaker 2: and you could do that by just going. You know,

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Speaker 2: we have on the Action Network a and an imply

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Speaker 2: probability calculator where you could just type in any juice, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, minus two hundred and they'll tell you that

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Speaker 2: that means about a sixty seven percent chances.

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Speaker 4: So helpful, I didn't even know we had that. Look

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Speaker 4: at me and learning new things.

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Speaker 3: But Sean, what else would you say are sort of pillars?

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Speaker 3: Anything you want to add to what Raymond said for

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Speaker 3: player prop betting?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so you know, when it comes to player props,

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Speaker 5: you're obviously betting on how that player specifically will perform

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Speaker 5: in that given stat, but you're also factoring the matchup

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Speaker 5: against the opposing team, how other teammates will perform as well,

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Speaker 5: impacts the player prop and how their coach could potentially

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Speaker 5: alter that their usage for that specific game. So I

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Speaker 5: think having an overall understanding about the whole entire game

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Speaker 5: itself helps, and that's kind of how I approach prop

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Speaker 5: betting so I think that's also why there's a higher

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Speaker 5: skill gap when it comes to player props. As Raybell mentioned,

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Speaker 5: you know, books don't spend too much time setting these

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Speaker 5: because there's so many. But also you know, it's it's

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Speaker 5: hard to take projections, so some of us that do

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Speaker 5: have an edge.

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Speaker 1: Over those that don't.

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Speaker 5: So that's why these are exposed to you know, sharp action,

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Speaker 5: hence the big line moves, hence why it's still crucial

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Speaker 5: to get the best numbers. Unfortunately, it doesn't mean there's

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Speaker 5: lower limits, so you can't bet as much money. So

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Speaker 5: these are more entertainment than things that you know you're

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Speaker 5: gonna end up, uh, you know, buying a vacation home

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Speaker 5: a different island by betting players. But you know, books

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Speaker 5: kind of know that in the long run, it's really

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Speaker 5: hard to beat sharps when it comes to these. So again,

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Speaker 5: if you're following our advice and things like that, you

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Speaker 5: can have a pretty big edge. And also, just piggybacking

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Speaker 5: what Raybond said, it is important to understand that books

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Speaker 5: are taking most of the action on overs, so everyone

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Speaker 5: rather root for Jamar Chase to go over six and

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Speaker 5: a half receptions than for him to go under, so

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Speaker 5: you kind of have to embrace betting on unders, like

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Speaker 5: Raybond said. But also when it comes to just the

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Speaker 5: the theory behind unders, there's a lot more ways for

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Speaker 5: a player to finish under a prop because you know,

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Speaker 5: they can get hurt in game, they could get ejected

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Speaker 5: other reasons, they're just out of the game for whatever reason.

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Speaker 5: So there's more outs for unders to hit. Plus the

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Speaker 5: distribution of these stats, some of these stats aren't normal distributions,

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Speaker 5: so it actually favors unders even more so, there's a

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Speaker 5: lot of different outs for unders to hit. Plus the

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Speaker 5: market typically you know, overinflates overs as well. So I

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Speaker 5: agree with Raybond that in general you'll want to be

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Speaker 5: attacking unders.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Sean's talking distributions. Talk dirty to me, baby,

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Speaker 2: I love it. That's that's what I was gonna say, Like,

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Speaker 2: you know, piggybacking off what you were mentioning. With the

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Speaker 2: normal distributions, what people need to realize with a lot

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Speaker 2: of these props is the median a lot of times

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Speaker 2: is different from the average. So for example, you know,

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Speaker 2: going off Jamar Chase, his average receiving yards per game

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Speaker 2: may be one hundred and five, but his median may

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Speaker 2: be only eighty five. It's just that he had a

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Speaker 2: bunch of a couple of like two hundred yard games

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Speaker 2: that made the average balloons. So a lot of times

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Speaker 2: people will see a line and it will say chase

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Speaker 2: over under eighty five and a half receiving yards, and

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Speaker 2: they'll be like, well, he's averaging one hundred and five.

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Speaker 1: That's an easy over.

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Speaker 2: And then they'll lose fifty percent of the time and

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Speaker 2: they'll be like, what the hell, And it's because you

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Speaker 2: didn't understand distribution and the fact that the median, which is,

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Speaker 2: you know, fifty percent on each side, is not always

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Speaker 2: the same as the average in especially in a sport

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Speaker 2: like NFL. In NBA, you know, they play eighty two games,

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Speaker 2: and it's a little you know, for certain stats, it's

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Speaker 2: a little more true to you know, having the bell curve,

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Speaker 2: But especially in the NFL, most of the averages differ

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Speaker 2: from the medians, and that's true in most sports in general,

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Speaker 2: with most stats.

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Speaker 1: So you really have to.

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Speaker 2: Get an understanding of the individual stats, how they work,

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Speaker 2: what the correlations are, you know, what drives each stat

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Speaker 2: you know, something as simple as receptions, Well, how do

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Speaker 2: you get there?

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Speaker 1: You have to.

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Speaker 2: You have to know how many routes the guy's gonna run,

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Speaker 2: how much is gonna get targeted? You know what the quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: you know, how how good is he accurately delivered ring passes?

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Speaker 2: Is the receiver running high percentage or low percentage routes?

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Speaker 2: Things like that game script. You know, if a team

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Speaker 2: gets up, they're going to pass less. So you just

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Speaker 2: have to unders stand whatever is driving that individual stat

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Speaker 2: and how it's distributed in terms of you know, is

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Speaker 2: the average.

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Speaker 1: Me link it up with the median.

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Speaker 2: But that's just another way that you could take advantage

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Speaker 2: of unders because books know this too. Books know the

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Speaker 2: average person probably doesn't even know what the hell immediate is,

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Speaker 2: so they're like, I'm.

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Speaker 1: Yes, So again, a median is just the fifty percentile outcome.

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Speaker 2: You know, half of the results will be above it,

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Speaker 2: half the results will be below it. But what a

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Speaker 2: lot of times I see the sports books do because

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Speaker 2: again they're not spending a ton of time with these projections.

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Speaker 2: A lot of times they'll just use the averages at

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Speaker 2: a point five and.

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Speaker 1: That'll be the prop.

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Speaker 2: So there is a big edge if you uh just

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Speaker 2: understand that simple concept that it's just not as simple

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Speaker 2: as saying, oh, he's averaging this, I'm gonna go over under.

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Speaker 3: Taking me back to contemporary math class in college and

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Speaker 3: need to take too, I mean math courses being a

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Speaker 3: journalism major. But you know, you both talked about some

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Speaker 3: like differences between betting player props and sides and totals.

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Speaker 3: But what would you say is like uniquely challenging about

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Speaker 3: the prop side of things, Sean? Is it just that

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Speaker 3: it's really difficult to make projections like you said.

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Speaker 5: Oh yeah, yeah, I mean it does take a lot

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Speaker 5: more effort to make a whole set of player projections

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Speaker 5: and just having a take on a sider total.

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Speaker 1: I think one of.

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Speaker 5: The the more like underlying things that I think is

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Speaker 5: challenging about player props is something I mentioned earlier. You're

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Speaker 5: much more attached to more random things like in game injuries, injections,

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Speaker 5: foul trouble, you know, guy getting filed out, anything that

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Speaker 5: forces a player out of the game. Once that happens,

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Speaker 5: you know, the prop's done with. He's out of the

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Speaker 5: game for the rest of the game. Ideally you had

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Speaker 5: the under in that situation, but if you had the over,

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Speaker 5: you're screwed. Even if you handicapped it correctly, that's just

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Speaker 5: the way it is. Whereas a sider total, even if

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Speaker 5: it's a key player like you know, Lebron James is

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Speaker 5: out for the rest of the game, you still at

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Speaker 5: least have a chance, you know, the vikers will cover

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Speaker 5: the spread or the overall head. But for a player prop,

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Speaker 5: it's done. So that's probably the one thing that you

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Speaker 5: have the least amount of control with when it comes

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Speaker 5: to player props. But otherwise, I think every other factor

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Speaker 5: when it comes to you know, versus sides and totals,

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Speaker 5: you have more control over. You know, what you can

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Speaker 5: process and like you're you can project for a player

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Speaker 5: because it's a more specific individual stat. But when you

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Speaker 5: do that, it comes at a cost where if they

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Speaker 5: have to leave the game due to injury, you know,

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Speaker 5: it's up in the air. But uh, that would I

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Speaker 5: would say that's the one thing that I think is

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Speaker 5: the most challenging about.

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Speaker 4: Player props raveon anything else.

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Speaker 2: Ah Man, Yeah, I think there's a lot of things

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Speaker 2: that are challenging, but it's it's rewarding if you can

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Speaker 2: kind of master it. So I think there's there's certain

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Speaker 2: things like, for example, in a addition to injuries, potentially

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Speaker 2: tanking you're over, which is why again you want a

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Speaker 2: bet unders. But you also have to realize that and

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Speaker 2: I run into this a lot, but most player prop

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Speaker 2: bets are must must start for action or must play

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Speaker 2: for action, which means if you bet on let's say

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Speaker 2: Cameron Braid to go under a half a yard, but

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Speaker 2: he doesn't play a snap, the book could avoid that bet.

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Speaker 2: So you have to kind of under like there's a

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Speaker 2: nuance to it to like even to betting unders. We

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Speaker 2: already mentioned the lines are gonna move a lot quicker.

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Speaker 2: A lot of times I've seen I'll be banging a

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Speaker 2: prop on a couple of books and then go to

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Speaker 2: like another book to bet it again, and it will

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Speaker 2: get removed from that book. So you have to really

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Speaker 2: be aware of of line movement. You have to act quickly,

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Speaker 2: and you have to have I would recommend having multiple

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Speaker 2: options for sports books so you can get the best

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Speaker 2: number when you're just starting out, and if you're successful,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna realize pretty quick that you're going to need

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Speaker 2: multiple books just to get as much money down as

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Speaker 2: you want, because, as Sean mentioned, the limits are lower.

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Speaker 2: Then you have the issue that as I mentioned the

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Speaker 2: juice isn't always minus one ten on each side. Sometimes

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Speaker 2: there are certain markets where it's just overpriced throughout. So

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Speaker 2: I think the touchdown market is a good example.

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Speaker 1: Of this, where usually not only are.

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Speaker 2: You paying more than ten percent per player, but there's

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Speaker 2: really no edge on anyone. It's everyone is just kind

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Speaker 2: of overpriced and a lot. There's also the issue where

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Speaker 2: unlike a side or a total, where you can bet

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Speaker 2: you know, favored or dog over under, there's a quite

321
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Speaker 2: a few player prop markets where you can only bet

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Speaker 2: one side. Like touchdowns, you usually can bet a player

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Speaker 2: to score, but you can't bet a player not to score.

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Speaker 1: So I tend to avoid those markets. But I think the.

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Speaker 2: Biggest the biggest challenge with player props is when you

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Speaker 2: have an angle on a game on a player and

327
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Speaker 2: you make a prop bet based on that angle, and

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Speaker 2: you end up betting against yourself. And I'll give some

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Speaker 2: examples because I think they're really important.

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Speaker 1: So let's say the first.

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Speaker 2: Example, Let's say you think dk Metcalf has a really

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Speaker 2: tough matchup going against cornerback Darius Slay.

333
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Speaker 1: So you're like, all right.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet Metcalf under four and a half receptions

335
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Speaker 2: and then the game starts. It's playing out exactly as

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Speaker 2: you thought. You know, Slay is this blanketed Metcalf up

337
00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,959
Speaker 2: and down the field. But all of a sudden, you know,

338
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Speaker 2: after going catch us in the first half, to compensate,

339
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Speaker 2: Geno Smith says, to hell with it, start just start

340
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Speaker 2: running little shorter routes, little bubble screens. So they start

341
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,520
Speaker 2: targeting Metcalf on all these little underneath routes and he

342
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Speaker 2: ends up finishing with ten catches for only fifty one yards.

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Speaker 2: So you were kind of right about the fact that

344
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Speaker 2: Metcalf would struggle, but he still went over his reception

345
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Speaker 2: prop that you bet the under say you lost. So

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Speaker 2: you have to really understand the types of receivers and

347
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Speaker 2: what can happen, or for any prop, like what can

348
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Speaker 2: happen if this player is to struggle, like how would

349
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Speaker 2: they adjust? Because it can happen in reverse as well.

350
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Speaker 2: Like let's say Terry McLaurin. You think he's gonna be

351
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Speaker 2: shadowed by jam and Ramsey, and so you bet his

352
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Speaker 2: yard age under like sixty and a half yards. Let's say,

353
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Speaker 2: and Ramsey shadows McLaurin, just like you thought. Why all

354
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Speaker 2: game few pass breakups except for one sixty eight yard

355
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:38,320
Speaker 2: bomb where Ramsey stumbles a little bit and he gives

356
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 2: up a sixty eight yard bomb. Now you lose that

357
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,159
Speaker 2: yardage prop and he finishes with one catch, so you

358
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Speaker 2: would have won the reception prop because what you failed

359
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,399
Speaker 2: to consider was that when a player goes in single

360
00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,359
Speaker 2: coverage a lot of times in a week receiver in

361
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,480
Speaker 2: single coverage, even against in a week corner, they're still

362
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Speaker 2: gonna get some deep targets. So you really have to

363
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Speaker 2: understand the players involved in how the adjustments will be made.

364
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Speaker 1: And I'll give one more just for over.

365
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Speaker 2: Betters, because I think you know this is where most

366
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Speaker 2: people are still gonna bet overs, even though we tell

367
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Speaker 2: y'all not too. So I've got y'all like, let's say,

368
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,919
Speaker 2: let's say you like Nick Chubb. He's going against like

369
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 2: the terrible Bears defense run defense. It's the worst run

370
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 2: defense in the league. You're like, they're going to four

371
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 2: speed Nick Chubb. So you bet over seventeen and a

372
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:27,199
Speaker 2: half carries and the game starts and Chubb immediately just

373
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 2: runs through a Bears defense like Swiss cheese, finishes with

374
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Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty yards three touchdowns, but he was

375
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,359
Speaker 2: too efficient. It only took him fifteen carries because he

376
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,920
Speaker 2: was getting these huge chunks and finishing runs with touchdowns.

377
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:45,040
Speaker 2: So in that situation, the yardage over would have been better.

378
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,679
Speaker 2: So generally, matchup wise, you want to in football, especially

379
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 2: when you want to look at you know, the yardage

380
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 2: more and like playing time, that's when you're looking at

381
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,680
Speaker 2: the volume props like maybe the guy the backup is injured,

382
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,439
Speaker 2: or the game script something like that. But the visual

383
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 2: just like matchup strength, usually you're gonna it's gonna be

384
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 2: you're gonna have a better bet with yardage. But and

385
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 2: the same thing in the NBA, like you could think

386
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 2: a player has a really tough one on one matchup,

387
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 2: but like if it's a player like let's say Devin

388
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,400
Speaker 2: Booker who usually gets doubled and now all of a sudden,

389
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 2: you know, Pat Bev is on him, but he's getting

390
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,439
Speaker 2: singled out, he could still cook him and go to work. Yeah,

391
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 2: So like if you bet the under on his points

392
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 2: problem and he drops forty five, you're gonna feel stupid.

393
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: So you really have to kind of think of all

394
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 2: the different range of outcomes, Like, Okay, if this happens,

395
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 2: then what will happen? And you really want to kind

396
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 2: of gut check these things, like you don't need to

397
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 2: make these.

398
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 1: Projections like Sean and I are doing. That's what gives

399
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 1: us our edge.

400
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:46,639
Speaker 2: But you could just be you know, well well versed

401
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,119
Speaker 2: in whatever sport and players you're betting on. But you

402
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 2: still have to think about those, you know, kind of

403
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 2: derivatives of what of what can happen based on your prediction.

404
00:20:55,160 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 3: Man, those are some debilitating examples that you provided there

405
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 3: about it. I mean, look, there are so many variables,

406
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 3: including like what adjustments to your point teams may make

407
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 3: and you know, so it's like it's critical thinking, like

408
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 3: you have to think about, you know, what's the.

409
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,919
Speaker 4: Obvious and then like look a little bit deeper.

410
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 3: But Sean, I mean I feel like I need some

411
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:28,160
Speaker 3: like positive examples of like how you know your masterful

412
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 3: like game planning like worked out?

413
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 4: Are you are you ready to share any of those?

414
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:33,880
Speaker 1: Oh, like a prop that went well?

415
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 4: Yeah?

416
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 3: Or not? Like something that was like not expected that

417
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 3: like something that you like really felt like you know,

418
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 3: you were thinking about it in a way that most

419
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:46,640
Speaker 3: people weren't.

420
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 1: Yeah.

421
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 5: I think a recent example would have been a strikeout prop.

422
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 5: Blake Snell had a prop of six and a half

423
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 5: strikeouts and it was a number he had cleared in

424
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 5: like eight straight games. Yeah, I was showing quite a

425
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 5: bit of value on the under. And in that situation,

426
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 5: I was just figuring, like, everybody's hammering his over right now,

427
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 5: how could you not? So, you know, I looked into,

428
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 5: you know, the underlying reason why it was maybe showing

429
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 5: some value on his under and I saw that. Well,

430
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 5: Blake Snell, he tends to strike people out by getting

431
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 5: them to chase pitches outside of the strike zone. And

432
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 5: he had faced a handful of teams that just swing

433
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 5: freely at pitches outside of the strike zone, so he's

434
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 5: racking up strikeouts. Well, he had a match up against

435
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 5: the Blue Jays, who are a very disciplined team. They don't,

436
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 5: you know, chase many pitches outside of the strike zone.

437
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 5: So that was probably why I was showing some value.

438
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 5: And sure enough, a lot of those potential strikeouts he

439
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 5: had over the past month turned into walks. So he

440
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 5: ended up walking five or six batters, only struck out four,

441
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 5: and that was specifically based on the matchup. And you know,

442
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 5: the number itself was probably inflated just because everybody was

443
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 5: on his over based on recent you know forms, so

444
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 5: that I think that was a good example of just

445
00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 5: everything that I kind of want when I'm betting on

446
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 5: a up happen there where it's I'm kind of going

447
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 5: against the grain, but there was a reason for that,

448
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 5: and then watching the game you could just see it

449
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 5: unfold perfectly. So I would say that's that's a good

450
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 5: example of just like ideally what I'm looking for and

451
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,399
Speaker 5: I'm betting on prop raymon.

452
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 4: I know you have plenty of stories like that too.

453
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,439
Speaker 3: We'll get we'll get to some more thrills of betting

454
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 3: player props a bit later. But to your point, Sean,

455
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 3: it's like, it's not just look about looking at the

456
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 3: production the numbers, like what the players typically do. It's

457
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 3: like how they do it, and you know, again taking

458
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 3: into account all of those outside factors such as their coaches, teammates,

459
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 3: et cetera. Now we talked about a couple of little

460
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 3: tools that you guys might have in your toolkit or

461
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 3: recommend to others to have, such as Raybon you mentioned

462
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 3: like the implied probability calculator. Probability stumbled over that one,

463
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 3: but what are there, Like, what other resources have we

464
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 3: not mentioned anything else that you want to throw out there.

465
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, Sean and I have both have

466
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 2: numerous in NFL top five fantasy accuracy finishes, and here

467
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 2: at Action we actually take those projections from Sean and

468
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 2: I and we have a props tool where you can

469
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 2: see our projection versus the lines across all the sportsbooks

470
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 2: for each you know, individual player stat and it will

471
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 2: calculate the edge for you and you can sort it

472
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 2: by you know, stat by edge, by by odds, by

473
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 2: whatever you want. So I think that's a really great tool.

474
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 2: And then if you're kind of more interested in uh,

475
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 2: you know, kind of going out on your own and

476
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 2: kind of formulating, you know, kind of coming up with

477
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 2: your own bets for player props, I think you always

478
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 2: want to start with game log data. I think that's

479
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 2: really important because when you're when you're thinking about player

480
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,360
Speaker 2: props again, it always comes back to probability. Usually one

481
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 2: side is going to be more heavily juiced than the other,

482
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:05,479
Speaker 2: and so not everyone is going to have the you know,

483
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: capacity and the tools to you know, go and like

484
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 2: simulate something ten thousand times, but you know, just by

485
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 2: like looking at a player's game logs and okay, how

486
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 2: many times did this did he go over his rebound?

487
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: You know, five and a half rebounds? How many times?

488
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 2: You know, And then you can look at similar matchups

489
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 2: things like that just to kind of start getting an

490
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 2: idea of the probabilities. And also a lot of times,

491
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 2: because these are softer markets, you know, I can There's

492
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 2: been countless times when I've gone on shows, Sean's gone

493
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 2: on shows and we've been like, hey, we're betting this

494
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 2: under and it's actually hit sixty eight percent of the

495
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 2: time this season already, and it's because you know, again,

496
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 2: the books are using very kind of simple methods to

497
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 2: create these props. A lot of the times they're rounding,

498
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 2: they're probably using just like recent game data, so like

499
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 2: it's all very basic. So if you can just start

500
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 2: to kind of get an idea of what the true

501
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 2: probability you'd expect if if this did play out, you know,

502
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: ten times, one hundred times, a thousand times, And you

503
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 2: could do that by just looking at game log of

504
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 2: similar matchups of the same player or even of similar

505
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 2: players if you know, let's say you're early in the season,

506
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 2: or guys a rookie, but just start kind of getting

507
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 2: used to looking at at game logs. Pro Football Reference,

508
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: Basketball Reference, Baseball Reference, Hockey Reference. They all have them

509
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 2: for their individual sports stat use. A lot of people

510
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,239
Speaker 2: like because you can kind of query it and you know,

511
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 2: do do different things in that, or you could just

512
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: kind of import it, import it, copy and paste, scrape

513
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 2: whatever you do into your own spreadsheet. And I like

514
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 2: that because then I can really you know, sort and

515
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 2: filter with ease when I have it in my own spreadsheet,

516
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,199
Speaker 2: and I can kind of add extra notes, like if

517
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 2: I want to mark down every time a player, let's

518
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 2: say in the NFL played with a certain injury, I

519
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 2: can have that at a game log and just filter

520
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 2: out for okay, knee injuries and see how a player performs.

521
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 2: So that's that's I think a really important tool is

522
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 2: just game lugs, and then defense versus position, because we're

523
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 2: talking about matchups here more often than not, so uh,

524
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 2: you usually want to understand, you know, the defense and

525
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 2: how they're affecting teams. And you know, for example, in

526
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 2: the NFL, you can look at past defense versus running

527
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,439
Speaker 2: backs and you have to understand the reasons behind it too,

528
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 2: because you don't want it to just be you know,

529
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 2: small sample size variants or whatever. But let's say a

530
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 2: team doesn't give up much production to running backs in

531
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 2: the passing game. If that team also blitzes a lot, well,

532
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 2: then that checks out because a team that blitzes a

533
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 2: lot of the running back instead of going in a pass route,

534
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 2: he's gonna have to stay in the block more.

535
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: So, we just kind of being aware of things like that,

536
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: I think is huge.

537
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 2: In the NFL, snap data is crucial snaps routes, percentage

538
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 2: of you know, of targets, percentage of targets per route,

539
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 2: things like that. In the NBA, on and off data

540
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 2: is massive for player props, and at Fantasy Labs we

541
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: have an on off tool where you can filter for

542
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 2: any dates and any amount of minutes or anything like that,

543
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: because like depending on the five players or you know,

544
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 2: sometimes just a combination of two or three guys on

545
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 2: the floor, different rebounding trends will merge, different assist trends

546
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 2: will merge.

547
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: You know, I'm sure the Suns are.

548
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 2: Going to be interesting this year, you know, with you know,

549
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 2: their different lineup combinations because they don't really have a

550
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 2: true point guard. So depending on their lineup combinations. You

551
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 2: know a lot of times Booker may be that the

552
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 2: guy who's getting the most assists, but other times it

553
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 2: might be Bradley Beal for example. So just kind of

554
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 2: understand using on off some type of on off tool

555
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 2: to really sort that out is how you're gonna get

556
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 2: an edge and props because usually with the NBA, the

557
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 2: way you get an edge in the.

558
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 1: NBA market is injuries.

559
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 2: Right, Like an injury hits somebody scratch and it's like, well,

560
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 2: now this guy's going from you know, fifteen minutes to

561
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 2: thirty minutes, and how is that going to affectone else?

562
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 2: You know, if he's like a good rebounder, then he

563
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 2: you know, you might have value on like two other

564
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 2: rebound unders in that game because he knocks their rebounds

565
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 2: per thirty six down, you know, by two rebounds each

566
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 2: the other two forwards or something like that. So I

567
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 2: think on off data for for the NBA is crucial,

568
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 2: and then for the NFL, the on off data really

569
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 2: is just kind of your snaps, your routes, your your

570
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 2: targets per route, because with that kind of data, then

571
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 2: you can account for whatever situation, uh, you know, has

572
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 2: popped up in the in the individual game that you're

573
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 2: betting on.

574
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 3: Okay, super interesting, and I mean it might be obvious,

575
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 3: but I think you know, following the news is it's

576
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 3: a given, but sometimes you're so focused on a specific

577
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 3: player and you're forgetting about you know, another player either

578
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 3: being added in or like subtracted from the equation, and

579
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 3: because it might not be a big injury, it might

580
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 3: be they're just banged up or you know, something something

581
00:29:55,840 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 3: of that nature. I remember pitching a uh a w

582
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 3: NBA prop to our our friend Sean Kerner here not

583
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 3: that long ago. I think I was given like a

584
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 3: B or like a B plus, maybe because I was

585
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 3: so focused on like whatever player.

586
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 4: I think it was like a rebounding totaler. No, No, that.

587
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 3: One should have hit that was No, it was I

588
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 3: think it was because and it wasn't anything to do

589
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 3: with her per se. It was that another player. I

590
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 3: think it was Azara Stevens. I didn't realize that they

591
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: were like she was returning to the team for whatever reason.

592
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 3: So obviously, you know, just like really having a pulse

593
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 3: on all the news is important.

594
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 4: But one other tools, Sean, did you want to highlight.

595
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 5: Well, I mean Rayvon covered it very well. I would

596
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 5: just say, you know, check out our projections in the

597
00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 5: app in our pro tool to those help identify which

598
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 5: props we're showing value on and then you can kind

599
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 5: of look into them from there. But for just when

600
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 5: it comes to like stats, I look at let's just

601
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 5: look at the NFL, and let's look at receiving props specifically,

602
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 5: so if I'm building projections for those or like analyzing

603
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 5: the market, the first part is knowing how often will

604
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 5: that player be on the field running her out. You

605
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 5: can't catch a pass if you're staying on the sideline,

606
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 5: so they have to be on the field running her out.

607
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 5: So looking at routes run data is key to understand

608
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 5: you know, like how often they'll be on the field

609
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 5: potentially getting a target. The next thing you want to

610
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 5: look at is you know how often that team is

611
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 5: going to throw the ball that game. So I like

612
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 5: to look at early down pass rate for teams in

613
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 5: neutral situations because you know, based on the matchup, you

614
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 5: know they could be an underdog where they're going to

615
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 5: be expected to throw more, or a favorite we're gonna

616
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 5: they're going to run the ball more. So just having

617
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 5: a sense on how many times the team will throw,

618
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 5: specifically when that players on the field is kind of

619
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 5: how I you know, produce targets and things like that.

620
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 5: So you also want to look at the player's target rate,

621
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 5: and then after that how far down the field will

622
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 5: he be getting his targets. So we look at average

623
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 5: depth of target, so that tells you how far down

624
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 5: the field he's typically seeing his targets, and that's basically

625
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 5: how you come up with a receiving projection. And one

626
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 5: thing I'll note, I think average depth of target is

627
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 5: very important when it comes to prop betting because if

628
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 5: a player typically sees their targets way downfield, it means

629
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 5: they're less likely to catch the ball. But if they do,

630
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 5: you know, they're going to have a ton of yards,

631
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 5: so that makes them more volatile. Whereas a player that

632
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 5: sees targets closer land scrimmage, they're going to be more

633
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 5: likely to catch him, but maybe not get as many yards.

634
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 5: So I consider that whether I'm betting on a receptions

635
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 5: prop or receiving yards prop, some guys are going to

636
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 5: be have a higher floor or ceiling in those prop markets.

637
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 5: So that's just one example of just like looking at

638
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 5: receiving props, the type of stats I look at how

639
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 5: to consider it. And if you find an angle and

640
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 5: one or two of those stats I gave, typically you

641
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 5: can find some value on that prop. So I think

642
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 5: that just looking through the process of what it takes

643
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 5: for a player to get receptions is how I would

644
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 5: attack receiving prop market.

645
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 2: And that's a that's a great point because bringing up

646
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 2: average dep to target because not only is it very

647
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:25,719
Speaker 2: instructive in terms of the whole operation of you know,

648
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 2: getting a target, but the other key thing about average

649
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 2: dept to target and as well as route.

650
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 1: Rate, you know, snap rate, whatever you want to.

651
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 2: Call it, is these stats are very sticky, which means

652
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 2: that they don't you don't need a large sample size

653
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: of those stats for them to become predictive. Like I

654
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 2: believe for wide receivers, after about twenty five targets you

655
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 2: can you could you have it's about fifty to fifty already,

656
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 2: you know, skill and luck just right there. So like

657
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 2: it doesn't take long as stabilized at all, average up

658
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 2: to target and routes and snaps snap rate is it

659
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 2: takes even less time, sometimes just a couple of games

660
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 2: and you can get a pretty good idea, like, if

661
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 2: you see a player has run eighty percent of the

662
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 2: routes for two straight games, you can be fairly confident

663
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,839
Speaker 2: that they're gonna, you know, run seventy five to eighty

664
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 2: five percent routes in that next game. So I think

665
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 2: though that's also key understanding that some of the stats

666
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 2: that you're actually betting on, you know, uh, receiving yards, receptions,

667
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 2: things like that, they may be volatile, but the under

668
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 2: there are underlying metrics that are more stable that you

669
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: can use to kind of back in to, uh, you know,

670
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 2: a projection, which is kind of what Sean is alluding to,

671
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,320
Speaker 2: and you don't you don't really even need again to

672
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 2: just like set up a whole spreadsheet if you just

673
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 2: kind of know this stuff and you can kind of

674
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 2: just do it back of the envelope. Math and one

675
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 2: more tool before we we move on that, I will say,

676
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,280
Speaker 2: you know, I think it's a lot less valuable for

677
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 2: things like sides and totals, but it's a lot more

678
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:07,479
Speaker 2: valuable for props, is narratives, is beat reports and things

679
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 2: like that. Because, for example, I was reading an article

680
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 2: from a beat reporter during that Celtics Sixers series beat

681
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 2: reporter for the Celtics, and you know, it was when

682
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 2: the Celtics were struggling against the Sixers and.

683
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,920
Speaker 1: They're like, you know, they really need some toughness. You know.

684
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 2: That was kind of the narrative, like the Celtics they've

685
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 2: lost their edge, they don't really have their toughness, and they've.

686
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: Lost their defensive identity.

687
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 2: And it was it was cuating into Game six, and

688
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 2: in my head, I'm like, that's a very good point.

689
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: Now what can they do.

690
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,919
Speaker 2: Like how like if that narrative were to come true,

691
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 2: Like how would that look on the court. And I

692
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 2: was like, the only thing that I could see them doing,

693
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 2: the only adjustment I could see them making to get

694
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 2: more toughness and defense is reinserting rob Williams time Lord

695
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 2: into the starting lineup. He was not starting the first

696
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 2: five games, so so the books were listing his props

697
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 2: as if he was a bench player.

698
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:04,879
Speaker 1: So it was like it was like six and.

699
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 2: A half, five and a half points, six and a

700
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 2: half rebounds or something, bang the overs on the points,

701
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,479
Speaker 2: the rebounds, the points, rebounds assist. And then a few

702
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 2: hours later it gets announced that Robert Williams is going

703
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 2: to start game six and I got massive value, and

704
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 2: of course the lines changed, so that that's like for

705
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 2: sizes and totals, you can you can kind of do

706
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 2: more harm than good a lot of times with narratives,

707
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,319
Speaker 2: but with props when it gets down to the specifics,

708
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 2: the beat reports and narratives and things like that can

709
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,240
Speaker 2: be a big help. And that's why it's also helpful

710
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 2: to kind of if you want to focus in on

711
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 2: a couple of teams or a division or a certain

712
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 2: kind of stat to where you're looking for certain things

713
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: within those narratives, it makes it even better. Like I

714
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 2: love looking for kind of line up anticipating lineup changes

715
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 2: in the NBA, because the books will list usually the

716
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,320
Speaker 2: starters and maybe like the top two or three bench players.

717
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 2: So if like the guy who's like eighth in the

718
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 2: rotation suddenly starts, you could get massive value and vice

719
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 2: versa from you know, the guy that's going to get benched.

720
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 3: That's a good reason to you know, listen to postgame

721
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 3: press conferences to you know, listen to the reports coming

722
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 3: out of the game, and again betting early Raymond before

723
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 3: you you actually get the official word on the lineups,

724
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 3: starting lineups and so on, and and that was a

725
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 3: really good betting opportunity that you just sort of outlined.

726
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 3: But Sean, I'm curious what would be sort of your

727
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 3: ideal player prop betting opportunity.

728
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 4: I'm not sure which sport you would prefer to.

729
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 5: Highlight, but well, I mean there's a bunch of different

730
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 5: things that would lead to a you know, ideal betting opportunity.

731
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 5: But I'll just go back to that Blake Smell prop

732
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 5: I gave earlier. You know that that was a prop

733
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 5: where he had recently gone over like eight games. It

734
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 5: was like eight or nine games in a row. So

735
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 5: you'll typically in that situation, you'll typically see the market

736
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 5: get him later because everyone's just overacting to the recent

737
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 5: game log. And now I don't really just want to

738
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 5: blindly fade recent performance or necessarily the public. But if

739
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,760
Speaker 5: I'm sort of able to identify, you know, why he's

740
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 5: been on fire and why that might change in the

741
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 5: upcoming matchup for any reason, that's like the ideal prop

742
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 5: opportunity for me, because I think we're getting a good

743
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 5: number and just based on underlying data or whatever I

744
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 5: find or a narrative something like that could buck that trend. Like,

745
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 5: those are my favorite betting opportunities and it comes to

746
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 5: player props.

747
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 3: Right, It's all about finding like which which of these

748
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 3: trends is like a fugazy like you know, what's the

749
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 3: what's the what's the deeper reasoning behind this?

750
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 4: And you know, like you said, how could it change?

751
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:53,760
Speaker 3: Were there any other betting opportunities Raybon you wanted to highlight?

752
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 1: Yeah?

753
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 2: I think it's the when you talk about ideal opportunities,

754
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 2: let's put everything together that we've kind of discussed so far.

755
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 2: So we know we want to kind of target unders

756
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 2: and we know that you know, game scripts and things

757
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,919
Speaker 2: like that play a big part. So my ideal opportunity

758
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 2: is usually there's when there's some kind of situation where

759
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 2: the books are setting a line in a certain market

760
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 2: where it doesn't accurately take into account a player's playing

761
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 2: time projection, whether that's because of injury, whether that's because

762
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 2: of gamescript, whether that's just.

763
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 1: Because of a coach's decision.

764
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 2: You know, maybe they're getting more or less playing time.

765
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 2: So I'll give some examples. You know, Let's say a

766
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 2: receiver has seen his routes decrease, like he started the

767
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 2: year and he was that third receiver, and he was

768
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 2: running around about seventy percent of the time, but he's

769
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 2: kind of falling to fourth on the in the pecking order,

770
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 2: and he's only running around maybe twenty to thirty percent

771
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 2: of the time now. But he's gotten lucky, and he's

772
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 2: still put up the same you know, catches and yards

773
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 2: because you know, he's just kind of gotten lucky maybe

774
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 2: a couple of good matchups. So a lot of times

775
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 2: the books won't take that into account because they're actually

776
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 2: basing their projection just on the game log in the

777
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,359
Speaker 2: recent per game averages, and so you can, you like,

778
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 2: if you have a guy projected to run half the

779
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 2: route like and naturally he's his odds of you know,

780
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 2: catching the same amount of passes for the same amount

781
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:25,919
Speaker 2: of yards as he was before is going to go down.

782
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 1: So you want to bang the under.

783
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:32,360
Speaker 2: And I remember specifically going up to meet with Kerner

784
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,879
Speaker 2: up in Long Beach and met him at the bar,

785
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,720
Speaker 2: and I was I think it was like a Friday,

786
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:40,879
Speaker 2: so which is usually when the prop props come out,

787
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: So I think I had just entered a Kenneth Walker

788
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 2: receiving yards under and it was like under like eight

789
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: and a half or ten and a half or something

790
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 2: like that, and Sean was like, yo, I couldn't even

791
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 2: like I wish I would have seen that too, because

792
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 2: like that's a ridiculous prop.

793
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 1: And the reason was because you know, they were.

794
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:03,879
Speaker 2: Essentially acting Kennis Walker for like one catch or one

795
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 2: and a half catches, where but if you looked at

796
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 2: his snap and route data, he was only running a

797
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 2: route like eight percent of the time, like he was

798
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 2: gonna run like maybe like two or three routes tops

799
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 2: in this game, there's like, you know, the average running

800
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 2: back gets targeted a little under twenty percent of his route,

801
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 2: So there's no way if you're running like three or

802
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 2: four routes that you're gonna be projected to catch one

803
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:29,440
Speaker 2: ball much less more than one. So like little things

804
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 2: like that, you can catch big edges on. And another

805
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 2: ideal opportunity is when you're in the NFL or college

806
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 2: football when they're the book, because they're always gonna set

807
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 2: multiple props on quarterbacks.

808
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: Quarterbacks is the you know, most popular position.

809
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 2: It's the it's it's a sexy position, right, so you're

810
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 2: gonna get pass attempts, completions, interceptions, yards, passing, touchdowns, sometimes

811
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 2: quarterback rushing yard as well.

812
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 1: If a quarterback is.

813
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 2: A benching risk, bang the unders. Like I remember we

814
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 2: were on one of the I think it was a

815
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,440
Speaker 2: convince me a Thursday night, convinced me, and it was

816
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 2: I think it was the COVID year whatever year when

817
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 2: the Patriots had the unfortunate, uh luck of having to

818
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 2: start Cam Newton for like fifteen games like that, you know,

819
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 2: the ghost of Cam Newton, not Cam Newton, but he

820
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,879
Speaker 2: was going against the Rams defense when it was still

821
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 2: good and they still had Ramsey and all these guys.

822
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 2: I think it might have been their Super Bowl year

823
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 2: or the year before. But so I'm looking at this

824
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 2: matchup and I'm like, there's just no way that Cam

825
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 2: Newton is going to complete passes for yards in this game,

826
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 2: and like it's gonna be it's gonna be bad, Like

827
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 2: it's gonna be so bad that like he's a real

828
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:43,840
Speaker 2: risk of getting backed because he was already playing poorly

829
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 2: and sure enough, like he does nothing in you know,

830
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 2: like the first I guess half or three quarters and

831
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 2: uh and ends up getting benched.

832
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 1: And I had like all of his under just like

833
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:54,760
Speaker 1: across the board.

834
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 2: And usually I don't like you know, generally speaking, I

835
00:42:57,520 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 2: don't like to, you know, correlate a bunch of props.

836
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 2: I think that's something that another thing that people get

837
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 2: a little too pretty with because especially with the rise

838
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 2: of like same game parlay and all that. But realistically,

839
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 2: do you want you don't want correlation between your bets

840
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 2: because a lot like there is always gonna be some

841
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:16,959
Speaker 2: type of situation where.

842
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 1: Like one of your bets might eat into another.

843
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 2: One, Like if you have a running back yardage over

844
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 2: and a receivering on the opposite team, or receiver's yardage under, well,

845
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 2: you know, if you get into a certain game script,

846
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 2: you know, you might that like one of those two

847
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 2: is probably gonna have to hit for the other one

848
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:39,279
Speaker 2: to hit, Like you know, either receiver is gonna have

849
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 2: to get more yards so that running back can you know,

850
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 2: get back on the field and continue to kill the

851
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 2: clock or vice versus.

852
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: So like try to avoid.

853
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 2: Too many bets in one game if there's a big slate,

854
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 2: try to instead, Like my ideal with props is usually

855
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 2: have at least one prop in every game rather than

856
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 2: like eight.

857
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 1: Props in one game.

858
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 2: And even if if you are going to do a partway,

859
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 2: I would much rather that you'd do a parway with

860
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 2: eight different bets from eight different games than eight bets

861
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 2: from one game, even though it seems easier the other way.

862
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:10,759
Speaker 1: But that's how the books get you.

863
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 4: Wow, beware, choose your promp bets carefully.

864
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 1: You know.

865
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 3: I'm curious the increased popularity of player props, Like, how

866
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 3: how has that impacted the market? Like, do you think

867
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 3: it's made it harder or easier for you to do

868
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 3: what you do?

869
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 5: Sean, It's sort of a mixed bag because I think

870
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:33,320
Speaker 5: it's it's definitely helped make the market sharper over the

871
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,799
Speaker 5: years because just books are taking more actions, so they

872
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 5: have to take them more seriously. Back in the day,

873
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 5: they would just throw a line and move on, but

874
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 5: now you know, there's so much demand that they have

875
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 5: to offer these props, they have to take them seriously.

876
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 5: But however, like with more overall volume, we do see

877
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 5: a lot more novice betters, people just getting into sports betting,

878
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 5: betting on player prompts, so you know, there maybe isn't

879
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 5: as much sharp money. Again, I think that's the that's

880
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 5: only again too, that's going to inflate props a bit

881
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 5: more so, there's gonna be a lot more action on

882
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:09,359
Speaker 5: overs that can inflate the market. So it has you know,

883
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 5: created some bad numbers.

884
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 1: But overall, overall it's a lot.

885
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 5: Sharper than it was I want to say, a decade ago,

886
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 5: just because I think books are taking them more seriously.

887
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 5: There's probably just you know, there's more data and tools

888
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:24,000
Speaker 5: that there's disposal itself to make the lines more accurate.

889
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 5: But yeah, overall, I think it has been sharper, but

890
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 5: it's still beatable.

891
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually think I I think it's all positive

892
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 2: because I and we get these reports, you know, we

893
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:40,919
Speaker 2: get press releases here at action from the various sportsbooks.

894
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 2: So we'll get an email and in it, for example,

895
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 2: we'll contain you know, let's let's like it'll be right,

896
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 2: it'll be like most by player props of bets on

897
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:57,759
Speaker 2: over Travis Kelsey receiving yards, like and so like, like

898
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 2: the more people that come, I just want to reinforce

899
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 2: this because remember this is a market, and it's a

900
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 2: market that reacts to handle and the amount of money

901
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 2: coming down a bet. The more and more people come in,

902
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 2: it's never proportional to the amount of sharp bets. So

903
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 2: like for every person, like Kerner coming in the market

904
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 2: new there's ten thousand people that just want to bet

905
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 2: on an over to enjoy, you know, to enjoy watching

906
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 2: a game and having some action and having something to

907
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 2: root for.

908
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 1: So I think that it's made. It still creates an edge,

909
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 1: and I think.

910
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 2: The two big ways that it creates an edge are

911
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 2: in betting unders across the board because again, all this

912
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 2: money's coming in overs, but also a little bit overlooked.

913
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 2: And one that I like to target all the time

914
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,760
Speaker 2: is people also don't like betting juice.

915
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 1: Right.

916
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 2: So let's say you have Steph Curry over six and

917
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:57,799
Speaker 2: a half assists, but it's minus one sixty, right. People

918
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 2: might look at that and say, okay, like that's a

919
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 2: that's a.

920
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 1: Stay away for me.

921
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 2: I'm no way, I'm weighing minus one sixty, right, But

922
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:09,359
Speaker 2: this goes back to knowing your probabilities. If you feel

923
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 2: like Steph has like a seventy five percent chance of

924
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:17,320
Speaker 2: getting seven or more assists, that means the line should

925
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 2: be minus three hundred. The line is minus one fifty.

926
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:25,359
Speaker 2: That's massive value. And it's not only massive value, but

927
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 2: it's massive untouched value because no one wants to bet it.

928
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 2: So the books are still trying to entice people to

929
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:35,439
Speaker 2: take those numbers, and so if you are gonna bet

930
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 2: an over, this is gonna go contrary to what most

931
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 2: people would probably look for. But I actually would look

932
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 2: for uh two step overs because value is value, whether

933
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:49,720
Speaker 2: you're getting it on you know, a plus one fifty

934
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 2: or a minus one fifty, Like if that minus one

935
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 2: fifty should be minus two fifty, that's still value, the

936
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 2: same way if a plus one fifty should really be

937
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 2: you know, even money, like there's there's an edge is

938
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 2: an edge. A win is a win, and you control

939
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 2: how much money that you put down. So if you

940
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:09,759
Speaker 2: want to put if you normally, if you're uit, size

941
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 2: is normally one hundred, but you want to bet one

942
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:14,719
Speaker 2: one point fifty to win one hundred, you can do that.

943
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 2: Like yeah, like you control how big or small your

944
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:20,879
Speaker 2: win is. So I hate when people I hate hearing

945
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 2: it just frustrates me when people are like, oh, I

946
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:25,319
Speaker 2: don't want to bet this because of the juice. It's like,

947
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 2: it's not about the juice, It's about the value and

948
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 2: the edge, like the find out what you think the

949
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:35,880
Speaker 2: true probability of the prop hitting is. Compare it to

950
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:39,839
Speaker 2: the probability of the books listed odds, and if there's

951
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 2: a gap of you know, ten percent or more, some

952
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:45,359
Speaker 2: people go even less depending on you know, what your

953
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:47,799
Speaker 2: what kind of market it is, bet it like it

954
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 2: doesn't matter, Like if there's a if it's a minus

955
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 2: five hundred and it should be minus two thousand, I'm betting.

956
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:56,360
Speaker 1: I'm max betting every single time.

957
00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 2: Like so, I think that's a tip that goes way

958
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 2: under because people just tend to shy away from juice.

959
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 1: But it's not about the juice.

960
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 2: Is about the value you control, how much money you

961
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 2: make based on how much of put down.

962
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 4: That was such an epic speech.

963
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 3: I feel like I want to get up and like

964
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 3: run through a wall right now and then get on

965
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:21,759
Speaker 3: exactly exactly all right, we are almost done here.

966
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 4: We got to get out of here in just a minute.

967
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 3: But did want to touch on live betting really quick

968
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 3: when it comes to player props, Sean, any thoughts on

969
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 3: how to approach that.

970
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, so, you know, live props are tricky and ideally

971
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 5: you would have some sort of model to attack them,

972
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 5: but you know it's also something you could do based

973
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 5: on feel. You know, if you're out watching the game,

974
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 5: if you have, like an angle on something, you know,

975
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 5: they're more entertaining if you're doing it that way. But

976
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 5: for something like NFL, you know, these change based on

977
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 5: the current game script. So if a team's trailing by

978
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 5: a lot, you know, they're more likely to pass, while

979
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 5: a team with the bigger leads more willing to run. Now,

980
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 5: the market does a pretty good job of factoring that in,

981
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:04,720
Speaker 5: and we're actually gonna have a live player prop tool

982
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 5: in our app and on our website for the upcoming

983
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 5: NFL season so you can identify, you know, spots we're

984
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 5: showing value with our projections. But one other thing that

985
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 5: you know with live props I found again going back

986
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:19,680
Speaker 5: to baseball as an example, I found it as a

987
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 5: way to kind of get the best number. You know,

988
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 5: if I like an under on a pitcher going into

989
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,759
Speaker 5: the game, there's some spots where I say to wait

990
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 5: and bet it in game because the first time through

991
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:35,319
Speaker 5: the order for baseball, the pitcher has a huge advantage.

992
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 5: That's typically we're gonna they're gonna be racking up strikeouts.

993
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 5: Once every batter has seen that picture at least once

994
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 5: the k rate drops. So a lot of times these

995
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 5: pictures that I'll have an under on pregame, you know,

996
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 5: they have a hot start and then the prop goes

997
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 5: up by a couple of strikeouts, and then I like

998
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 5: the under even more. So I got better at just

999
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:56,439
Speaker 5: knowing you could wait until that moment happens where they

1000
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 5: you know, they have their advantage the first time through

1001
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 5: the order, and then take the under in game. So

1002
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 5: it presents you, you know, an opportunity to get a

1003
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 5: better number in game than you would a pregame, and

1004
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:09,360
Speaker 5: if you know how to spot that, you could really

1005
00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:11,279
Speaker 5: you know, rack up your ROI that way. So it

1006
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:14,760
Speaker 5: just gives you another angle, another market to kind of attack,

1007
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 5: even like using a pregame analysis to get there.

1008
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 3: Raybon, Do you take advantage of opportunities like that in

1009
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 3: game such as you know, NBA if a player goes

1010
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 3: down with an injury mid game or you know, like

1011
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 3: do you try to anticipate that as well.

1012
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, although I will say this, I'm usually personally this

1013
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:39,479
Speaker 2: is just me. I'm usually not going into a game

1014
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 2: necessarily looking to live bet. I think injuries are a

1015
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 2: really good example of you know, I remember there was

1016
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:50,839
Speaker 2: remember that Hawks Bucks playoffs Heeri, I think it was

1017
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 2: was the Eastern Conference semis of the finals they give

1018
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 2: the Bucks won the chip. The Hawks are giving them

1019
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 2: a lot of trouble, and I remember at one point

1020
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,359
Speaker 2: the Ducks were favored. I think it was a boy

1021
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 2: ten going into that game, and but they were it

1022
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 2: was like the third quarter, they were down by six,

1023
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 2: so the Hawks were hanging strong, and then Janni's just

1024
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 2: went down in a heat.

1025
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 1: And the thing you have to.

1026
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 2: Remember is, you know, like these a lot of the

1027
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:19,719
Speaker 2: the prop algorithms are they're just algorithms, Like they're just

1028
00:52:19,760 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 2: based on time remaining and things like that. So like

1029
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:25,719
Speaker 2: Yannis goes down and you know you can you know,

1030
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 2: now you have the opportunity if you can get it

1031
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:31,439
Speaker 2: to like smash a Chris Middleton over or a Drew

1032
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 2: Holliday over or something like that. So those those are

1033
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 2: the the opportunities that I think usually make the most sense.

1034
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,799
Speaker 2: Because the thing about the mixed live betting tricky is

1035
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 2: you're gonna have a lot of biases and things and

1036
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 2: like you're gonna have a lot less time to react,

1037
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:48,360
Speaker 2: So you definitely do want to have a plan and

1038
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,800
Speaker 2: kind of really know what you're doing if you're gonna partake.

1039
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 2: But I will say this like my philosophy when it

1040
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 2: does when it comes to live betting outside of you know,

1041
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 2: the injuries which are obvious when you're live betting player

1042
00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:06,400
Speaker 2: props bet on what you're not seeing, not what you

1043
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 2: are seeing, because I think the average person they feel like, Okay,

1044
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:12,839
Speaker 2: I know I know a little bit about you know,

1045
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 2: these teams, and I'm pretty dialed in here. So let's

1046
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:21,920
Speaker 2: say you're you're watching the Seahawks and Kenneth Walker is

1047
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 2: just ripping through the Rams defense in the first quarter.

1048
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:27,280
Speaker 1: It's just big run after big run.

1049
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 2: Like, oh man, Kenneth Walker is really running well today

1050
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:32,359
Speaker 2: the line is blocking. Well, I'm gonna bet his over

1051
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:35,440
Speaker 2: because I like the I like what I see from

1052
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker. I would do I would look for bets

1053
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 2: on the opposite. Maybe it's bets on the passing game.

1054
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 2: Maybe I'm betting a Walker under because there is so like,

1055
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:49,360
Speaker 2: there are so many more things that could happen, like,

1056
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 2: for example, the first fifteen players are scripted, so you know,

1057
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:56,040
Speaker 2: maybe after those first fifteen Walker is not as involved.

1058
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 2: Maybe after the first driver to where he's just running

1059
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:03,240
Speaker 2: through the defense. The quarterbank, the decordinator makes an adjustment

1060
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:05,040
Speaker 2: or at halftime he makes an adjustment.

1061
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:07,280
Speaker 1: Maybe they're using Walker.

1062
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 2: Early to set up the play action game with Gino

1063
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 2: to Jackson Smith and Jiba later on in the game,

1064
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 2: so they're like what you And on top of that,

1065
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 2: if you're betting on what you're seeing, you're going to

1066
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:20,520
Speaker 2: get the worst of the number because if you're watching

1067
00:54:20,520 --> 00:54:23,879
Speaker 2: a player succeed or do poorly, and the books are

1068
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 2: adjusting in real time based on what's what you're seeing

1069
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:31,400
Speaker 2: in front of you, So it's like you're just not

1070
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:32,800
Speaker 2: going to get value that way, so you want to

1071
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 2: bet on like anticipate and also remember that in the

1072
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:37,960
Speaker 2: word it's like a streaming world.

1073
00:54:38,040 --> 00:54:42,239
Speaker 1: Now everyone's streaming, there's usually a delay, so true.

1074
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:45,480
Speaker 4: Something to keep in mind for sure is.

1075
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 5: That's oh my god, that's such a great example. Rayvon

1076
00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:52,320
Speaker 5: gave like I thought of an example of when you

1077
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:54,719
Speaker 5: know Trevor Lawrence, he threw four interceptions in the first

1078
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 5: quartery of like thirteen yards. Would that be in the

1079
00:54:57,719 --> 00:54:59,719
Speaker 5: spot where you bucked the trent and bet the over there?

1080
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 2: Uh? Yes, But I remember, I think I think I

1081
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 2: remember being pretty inebriated and just oh okay, uh shitting

1082
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:11,600
Speaker 2: on Trevor Lawrence and then and then taking a nap

1083
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 2: and waking up and somehow the Jaguars were ahead.

1084
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 1: Maria.

1085
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:17,800
Speaker 5: We were arguing over that prop for at least fifteen

1086
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 5: minutes in front of everybody, uh, screaming match, and then

1087
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 5: he passed out. Raybon passed out and woke up after

1088
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:28,839
Speaker 5: you know, the Jaguars miraculous comeback. Lawrence had like over

1089
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:30,640
Speaker 5: three hundred yards. But I think that's a good example

1090
00:55:30,680 --> 00:55:33,280
Speaker 5: what Raybam's talking about, where nobody in the world watching

1091
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:35,200
Speaker 5: that game would have thought that Trevor Lawrence is gonna

1092
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 5: end up with three hundred plus yards but his his

1093
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:40,600
Speaker 5: prop kept dropping, And I said, I think it's a

1094
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,400
Speaker 5: good time to bet be over. But I think Raybon

1095
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:45,120
Speaker 5: made a very good point there. But I just remember

1096
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:48,439
Speaker 5: that example we were arguing in game over a player prop.

1097
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:52,759
Speaker 2: And also just remember again, I always come back to like,

1098
00:55:52,800 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 2: if you're gonna be live, bet and just be prepared

1099
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 2: to deal with all of the stuff that comes with it.

1100
00:55:57,000 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 2: Because for example, like in this particular situation, like if

1101
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,480
Speaker 2: I was in my right mind, would I have ever

1102
00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 2: argued with Sean about that? No, Like, you don't know

1103
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 2: how many dumb bets I've made with Sean where I

1104
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:13,719
Speaker 2: am just not quite in my right mind. I'm having

1105
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:17,000
Speaker 2: a little too much fun and I'll let people you know,

1106
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 2: whatever you think that means.

1107
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:21,600
Speaker 1: But like and like I have bet, I have bet.

1108
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 2: I have bet Sean James Croche to catch fifty passes

1109
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 2: in a season. I've I told him I wouldn't bet

1110
00:56:29,239 --> 00:56:30,560
Speaker 2: the Lawrence over.

1111
00:56:31,239 --> 00:56:31,680
Speaker 1: I wouldn't.

1112
00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 2: I told him I wouldn't bet the Brady over in

1113
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:37,839
Speaker 2: that game where they do, yeah, skiboard probably, Like, so

1114
00:56:37,920 --> 00:56:40,240
Speaker 2: like you have to remember that, like if you're going

1115
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 2: to like live betting is you have to treat it

1116
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:45,239
Speaker 2: like an investment, just like anything else. Like and like

1117
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:47,759
Speaker 2: if you're doing it just recreationally, then that's that. But

1118
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:50,799
Speaker 2: like if not, remember it's just like any other investment.

1119
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 2: You have to have a plan, You have to be prepared,

1120
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 2: and you have to understand where you may run into

1121
00:56:57,360 --> 00:56:59,320
Speaker 2: trouble and errors in times where you may not be

1122
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:01,520
Speaker 2: able to react quickly enough or your.

1123
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:02,879
Speaker 1: Judgment may may just be off.

1124
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 2: So those are all things to kind of keep in

1125
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:06,880
Speaker 2: mind when you're betting live, but it's just not the

1126
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 2: biggest thing is just don't bet what you see bet

1127
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:12,600
Speaker 2: on something you're not seeing because that's where the value

1128
00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:13,160
Speaker 2: is going to be at.

1129
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:14,760
Speaker 4: Wow, I mean.

1130
00:57:14,680 --> 00:57:17,240
Speaker 3: That was that sounds like it was a pretty big

1131
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:22,960
Speaker 3: thrill sean in your prop betting career, I guess because

1132
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 3: you ended up putting the bet on Trevor Lawrence.

1133
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1134
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:28,080
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, yeah, like Ray Bond doesn't remember that, but

1135
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 5: we did bet that.

1136
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:33,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's nothing I don't remember. I wasn't like I was,

1137
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:37,840
Speaker 2: I was sleeping. I needn forget it. I just literally

1138
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,560
Speaker 2: no way of for me to first time you heard

1139
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 2: about this actually exactly exactly.

1140
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 3: All right, any other any other thrills are just favorite

1141
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 3: experiences that you guys wanna want to brag on or

1142
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 3: that you sort of wish you could have before we

1143
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:53,960
Speaker 3: say goodbye.

1144
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 5: Well, just when it comes to like the thrill of

1145
00:57:56,640 --> 00:58:00,440
Speaker 5: player props, there's so much fun. And I think the

1146
00:58:00,440 --> 00:58:03,320
Speaker 5: biggest thrill for me is like when I ride up

1147
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:05,440
Speaker 5: a prop or I explain like how it's gonna go,

1148
00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 5: and it goes as planned and it hits. But it's

1149
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 5: also thrilling when I get it completely wrong and still win.

1150
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 5: And my favorite example was the Super Bowl four or

1151
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 5: five years ago. Patrick Mahomes, I had under like twenty

1152
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 5: nine and a half rushing yards. He was at like

1153
00:58:21,800 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 5: forty one right with two minutes off in the game.

1154
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 5: Horrible bet. I lost that right, But he kneeled down

1155
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:30,080
Speaker 5: in a way that he was trying to shave some

1156
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 5: time off the clock. He kneeled down a way where

1157
00:58:31,880 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 5: he was taken off five six yards at a time.

1158
00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:37,600
Speaker 5: So he actually rushed for like minus eleven minus twelve

1159
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:39,840
Speaker 5: yards at the end of the game to go under

1160
00:58:39,920 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 5: by like a yard and a half or something like that.

1161
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 5: So that was an example where I completely got it wrong.

1162
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 5: He scrambled more, he rushed more than I thought, but

1163
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:49,840
Speaker 5: in the end at one because of some you know,

1164
00:58:49,880 --> 00:58:52,480
Speaker 5: bullshit thing like that. So sometimes it can still go

1165
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:54,200
Speaker 5: your way even when you get it wrong. So that's

1166
00:58:54,440 --> 00:58:56,440
Speaker 5: when it comes to the player props. It's by far

1167
00:58:56,520 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 5: the best sweat.

1168
00:58:57,640 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 2: And even though we're talking about throughs Sean still dropping

1169
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:04,520
Speaker 2: knowledge because that is another great tip when betting quarterback

1170
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:08,240
Speaker 2: rushing yard unders. A lot of times people forget about

1171
00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:10,800
Speaker 2: kneel down. So like you might be looking at uh,

1172
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 2: let's say Ryan Tannehill is on like a three or

1173
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:17,720
Speaker 2: four game losing streak, and so he has he's getting like,

1174
00:59:17,880 --> 00:59:20,640
Speaker 2: you know, eight nine rushing yards a game, but that

1175
00:59:20,920 --> 00:59:24,280
Speaker 2: but now the Titans are big favorites over the Texans

1176
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 2: or something, and his prop is at like four and

1177
00:59:27,280 --> 00:59:28,080
Speaker 2: a half.

1178
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 1: And you're like, oh, that's an easy over. He's done

1179
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 1: that like each of the last five games.

1180
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 2: But you're not factoring in that he'll probably get minus

1181
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:38,920
Speaker 2: two or minus three on a kneel down. So you

1182
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:41,440
Speaker 2: know that that's another thing to keep in mind. But

1183
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:44,240
Speaker 2: as far as as far as thrills, like, I'm just

1184
00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 2: a six six sadistic like under lover, so like I

1185
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 2: just love you'd like to em yes, So like I

1186
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:55,919
Speaker 2: love like things like when you have a running back

1187
00:59:56,720 --> 00:59:59,919
Speaker 2: rushing yard under and he gets stuffed on first down,

1188
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:02,840
Speaker 2: then gingerly jogs off the field like it's now. He

1189
01:00:02,880 --> 01:00:04,680
Speaker 2: doesn't even stay on the field for second and long

1190
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 2: forget third down, like he's not even on a field

1191
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 2: for second and long. I love when I have a

1192
01:00:10,520 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 2: rebound or assist under in the NBA and then I

1193
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 2: see the ninth, tenth, eleventh, and twelve men off the bench,

1194
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 2: jump up and run to the scorers table. I'm like, all, hell, yeah,

1195
01:00:22,240 --> 01:00:24,680
Speaker 2: the white flag is being waived. I'm about to cast

1196
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 2: these unders, you know, like things like I love seeing

1197
01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 2: teams line up for a punt, Oh my god. I mean,

1198
01:00:31,680 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 2: you know, like a safety kick is just pure sex,

1199
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:38,320
Speaker 2: Like you know, just like anything that leads to an

1200
01:00:38,440 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 2: under a quarterback, a quarterback dropping back and just going

1201
01:00:43,080 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 2: through literally every other receiver in his progression except the

1202
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:47,040
Speaker 2: one I.

1203
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:47,800
Speaker 1: Haven't under on.

1204
01:00:48,320 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 2: And you know that receiver is just running wind sprints

1205
01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:54,840
Speaker 2: like Jalen Geiton for sixty minutes.

1206
01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:57,600
Speaker 1: Like I just love those kind of things. That's what

1207
01:00:57,640 --> 01:00:58,560
Speaker 1: I get it through from.

1208
01:00:59,000 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 3: While so many sports fans in the world are crying,

1209
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 3: Chris Raymond is somewhere smiling. Chris Raymond, Sean Kerner. It's

1210
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:12,240
Speaker 3: been an education for sure. Thank you so much for

1211
01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 3: being with us here on our Experts Guide to Betting

1212
01:01:16,120 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 3: player props. If you haven't already check out our other

1213
01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 3: Experts Guide to Betting episodes.

1214
01:01:22,080 --> 01:01:25,919
Speaker 4: We have them for NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, and more.

1215
01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 3: That's all right here on the Action Network podcast presented

1216
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:38,520
Speaker 3: by FanDuel. I'm Maria Marino. Thanks again for joining us.

1217
01:01:36,840 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

1218
01:01:43,120 --> 01:01:45,920
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1219
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:49,080
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