WEBVTT - Prediction Markets with Rebecca Ungarino and Nick Devor 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:03.560 Also media. 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:07.040 Welcome to Better Offline. I am, of course your host 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:21.599 ed Zeitron. Now we're back in the studio in beautiful 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:25.080 New York City, New York State. You need to check 0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:27.120 out the show notes. Of course, we have these beautiful 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:30.440 fuck Data Center t shirts. Subscribe to my newsletter and 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:32.839 so on and so forth. But today joining me at 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:37.480 Swaggage Claim are two of Barons's finest reporters, the legendary 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:39.880 Nick Dever who handles the gambling industry, and the Wall 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:44.120 Street reporting legend Rebecca Ungarno. Thank you so much for 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:48.639 joining us now, Nick, Yes, we have had so many 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:51.199 people emailing about prediction markets, and you cover the gambling 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:53.880 industry as well. How are they different? How are they 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.960 not the same thing, because they very much seem similar. Yeah. 0:00:57.040 --> 0:00:59.760 I think from a consumer point of view, there's very 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:05.199 difference between these products. You put money on the line, 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:09.000 if your team wins, you get paid out. So from 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:10.920 like a layman's point of view, I think there's very 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:15.800 little difference. However, there is a difference on a gambling 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:19.400 In gambling, you're betting against the house, so the betting 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:23.320 firm sets the odds that you're betting against, right whereas 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:27.720 in a prediction market, your counter party is another trader. 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:32.120 So trader or prediction markets are just essentially brokers that 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:35.319 are putting two traders together on one contract. And I 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:37.440 can explain that in a little more detail. 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:38.080 If you like, please. 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:41.640 So prediction markets sell what are called event contracts. So 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:45.080 event contracts are futures contracts. They're also called binary options, 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:48.480 and they're built around yes or no questions. So each 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:51.400 contract is worth one dollar, and it has two traders. 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:53.520 There's a trader on the yes side and there's a 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:57.280 trader on the no side. So like, will this podcast 0:01:57.400 --> 0:01:59.760 go well, we can make that a prediction market. I hope, 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:00.760 I hope it goes well. 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:04.200 Let's get this. I'm just set that up right now. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 0:02:04.240 --> 0:02:07.440 So if person A thinks there's a seventy five percent 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:10.200 chance that it will go well, and person B thinks 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:12.800 there's a twenty five percent chance that it will not 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:16.480 go well, person A pays seventy five cents and person 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:20.079 B pays twenty five cents. Right, So if it turns 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:23.720 out yes, the yes trader gets the twenty five cents 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:26.560 put up by the no trader and makes and now 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:30.280 has a dollar contract. Now, let's say on a second contract, 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:33.600 person C thinks there's a twenty five percent chance of yes, 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.720 person D thinks there's a seventy five percent chance of no. 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:40.399 So these two contracts where the odds are flipped average out, 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:43.000 and there's a fifty to fifty chance that this podcast 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:46.600 goes well, right, right, So the price of the contract 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:50.480 is the predictions, and prediction markets are just brokers. The 0:02:50.520 --> 0:02:52.520 businesses themselves are just connecting to trades. 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:55.520 So where's the crypto side as well? Because I remember 0:02:55.560 --> 0:02:59.080 when polymarkets started it was a weird crypto thing. But 0:02:59.200 --> 0:02:59.840 is it still that? 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.040 Yeah, I would say it's still a weird crypto thing. 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:07.280 They most of their business is still their international side 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:10.679 where they just take I think it's US d T, 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.480 it's some stable coin of that. They all of the 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.919 contracts are traded on that. That's poly Market. They're an 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:22.200 offshore run company. Yeah, offshore meaning right, yeah, I love this, 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:25.800 yeah yeah, meaning not regulated in the US, not a 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:31.200 US US based company. Contrast that with Calshi. Calshi was 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:36.400 the first registered designated contract market by the CFTC that's 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:40.480 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They regulate all of this stuff, 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.720 and so Calshi was the first firm to actually do 0:03:44.800 --> 0:03:48.080 this in what we would call like the legal way, 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:52.600 whereas poly Market does not have to abide by the 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:57.120 US regulations because they are not a US firm and 0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:00.640 they're trying to become They've gotten permissioned to operate in 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:04.160 the US, but they're like slowly rolling that out. A 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:08.240 lot of people in the US don't have Polymarket US accounts. Yeah, 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:10.520 if you want to trade on poly Market in the US, 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:12.680 you're mostly using a VPN. 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:15.040 A new zone, but you unique crypto to do it. Yes. Yeah. 0:04:15.120 --> 0:04:17.359 For the international site, this feel was. 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:20.279 Like it be rife with manipulation though. 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:25.880 Yeah, yeah, definitely I think that there because poly market operates, 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:29.919 you know, on the blockchain, it's generally all anonymous, and 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:32.640 it's very easy to get any kind of market you 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:36.039 want created, there's a lot of concern around manipulation. I 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:39.600 think A helpful example is there was some football game 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:42.479 or some sporting event, and there was a market for 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:45.840 will someone streak at this event, you know, run onto 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:50.080 the field naked, and someone did end up streaking, and 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.839 the person that ended up streaking was someone who was 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:57.000 trading on the market, you know, betting yes that someone 0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.000 would end up streaking, and then they went and did it, 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:01.520 and so they made you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars, 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:05.240 paid a small fine relative to the sporting people. And 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:07.839 you know, now we have so you get into this question. 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:11.400 I think a hopeful metaphor is like our prediction markets, 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:15.640 a thermostat or a thermometer. Are they like accurately pricing 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:19.640 the potential outcome? You know, are they saying that something 0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:22.800 is going to happen? Or by their very existence do 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:25.120 they make something more likely to happen? 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:28.760 Right, Rebecca, How's how are the banker's dealing with this? 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:32.560 How's Wall Street looking at this? Because this it's tough 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:36.360 to really grosp whether this is gambling or a futures contract, 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:38.719 like banging on the chance of stock will go up, 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:40.120 will go down, And. 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:41.640 There's such a big difference right now. 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:45.200 It's really interesting because the banks themselves, and this is 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:47.960 separate from like the market makers or like you know, 0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:51.640 higher frequency trading firms. The banks themselves are very highly 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:55.280 regulated by like three main agencies, the OCC the Office 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:58.120 of the Controller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve, and 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:01.080 the FD I see. So they're how they regulated, and 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.080 then they have a bunch of like state agencies that 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:07.400 regulate them too. So far, the biggest banks have stayed 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:11.320 pretty quiet on how they're thinking about these and they're 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.320 you know, kind of waiting for this regulatory you know clarity. 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.000 It reminds me a little bit of you know, bitcoin 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:19.839 and crypto going mainstream, you know, ten eleven years ago, 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:23.799 we're waiting for regulators. We're waiting for regulators, and banks 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:25.520 are They're really complex. They have a bunch of different 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:28.600 businesses where they could come in and you know, for example, 0:06:28.600 --> 0:06:31.760 on the banking side, the investment bankers, you know, have 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:33.600 an interest in well, do we want to help them 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:35.400 raise money? Do we want to help them raise capital 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:36.480 or take them public? 0:06:36.640 --> 0:06:40.599 Oh, they're touching any of the fundraising. 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:43.560 They they could my understanding, you would know better than me. 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:45.840 On Calsham and poly Market who their investors are. Is 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:47.120 a VC is a PE? 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:50.760 Yeah, it's I think it's mostly vcs right now. But 0:06:50.880 --> 0:06:53.080 they're both targeting There was recent reporting in the Wall 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:55.640 Street Journal that they're both poly Market and Calshi are 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:57.960 targeting twenty billion dollar valuations. 0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:01.800 Now it's just crazy, just totally totally business though. 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:04.120 Yeah, that's that's kind of the thing is there's not 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:07.760 like the there's not a lot of difference between trading 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:10.160 on poly market and trading on CALSHI, Like you're trading 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:14.560 the same kind of the same contract and in effect, 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:17.440 like it's the same kind of product that's being traded. 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:20.320 So you kind of get into a similar thing that 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:23.240 the sports betting businesses had to deal with, where fan 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:27.040 duel and draft kings are essentially you know, identical products 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:32.000 selling you know, identical products and trying to differentiate themselves. 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:34.560 And so we'll see in the coming months how how 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:37.040 that ends up working, Rebecca, on the on the. 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:39.160 Go ahead, we'll be usually well, I mean, and on 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:40.920 the trading side, it's a whole other like on the 0:07:40.960 --> 0:07:43.880 other side of the house exactly. Yeah, And like at 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:46.040 the bank, so like you know, these massive trading businesses. 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:48.560 It's so some of the reporting that we have so 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:50.440 far and we're you know, working on this now and 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:53.080 again the banks are being very tight lept on what 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:55.640 they're saying about what they're getting involved in or not 0:07:55.640 --> 0:08:00.000 getting involved in. This is something that so the investment banks, 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:03.240 they're like the bankers, the trading desks and then the 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.240 research and that's totally separate, and there's like this firewall, right, 0:08:06.520 --> 0:08:09.880 so research analysts are definitely like looking at these things 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:13.200 just like any other input, any other source of information. 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:16.000 Of course, it's yes, there are differences, but it's like, okay, 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:18.160 well what is cal she saying about this when you know, 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:23.640 maybe a commodity's analyst who's looking at exactly exactly and 0:08:23.720 --> 0:08:27.160 just another input to look at. So that's all well 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:29.320 and good. You can look at that. On the trading side, though, 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:32.560 it's more complicated because again the CFTC, like Nick brought up, 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:36.319 the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission that you know regulates 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:38.920 crypto and you know, is now regulating some of these 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:41.839 prediction marked auctivities. They have to weigh in and they 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:44.040 have you know, to some extent, but they're waiting for 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:47.880 kind of a more complete look at Okay, golden sacks, 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:51.360 you know, traders or enter any other like big bank traders, 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:55.120 Like what are we able to trade now? That is 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:57.880 still kind of out there, right. There are event contracts 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:01.760 like political elections and you know, things like that quote 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:05.120 event contracts, right, and then there are other markets where 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:09.320 on securities where it's like uh, that culture polymarket. 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:12.160 Market you can you can do like will and video 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:15.080 stock end the day up or down right, And this 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:17.359 is something that is happening every day. 0:09:17.360 --> 0:09:18.320 Right exactly. 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:20.360 And that's a little more complicated because then you are 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:23.080 dealing with securities rather than just like some amorphis like 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:23.920 event contract. 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.840 So it's like complicated, but legally speaking that I'm sure 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:29.240 someone will argue, well, this isn't a security because I'm 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:31.480 betting on an outcome rather than scary itself. 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:33.640 Totally, totally, totally. 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:35.880 Also set us up for something kind of dystopian though, 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:40.480 if these if banks or traders start trading on these 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:43.360 markets where you have some of the bank interest and 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:46.559 whether I don't know, a guy streaks ye oh, whether 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:49.480 a place gets blown up, like this is where I 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:51.600 think the fringes of insanity begin. 0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:55.280 Definitely completely, and I just like I'll want you to 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:57.640 weigh in or yeah, yeah, yeah, but like it just 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:01.280 opens a whole new for banks that are so regulated. Yeah, 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.680 it opens up a whole new source of like potential 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:05.760 liability and like you've done more reporting on. 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.760 That, yeah, yeah, we've we've from what we've heard there, 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:12.000 the banks are not as interested in those kinds of 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:15.440 markets just because there's no like, you know, they don't 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:18.240 have an election every single day, and like these destinies 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:19.599 to make money, right, so there needs to be like 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:24.600 a sustainable, constant kind of liquidity and like enough events 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:28.240 for them to actually you know, participate in the markets 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.920 and the kind of like securities related markets that maybe 0:10:31.920 --> 0:10:33.680 these banks would be more interested in that they would 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:36.240 have a better edge on whatever. Those are still mostly 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:40.560 on poly market, and I really doubt that you know, 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:43.760 a tightly regulated like US based bank is going to 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:46.800 want to be trading like in stable coin, like on 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:50.000 poly market against you know, potential insiders all of this stuff. 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:53.240 That just doesn't sound like appealing, I would imagine. 0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:57.800 But what about asset like the areas of the world, 0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:01.240 or like private equity vms or private credit firms? Aren't 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:05.280 they different? And might they be dumb? Like might they 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:08.040 get them? Might they get themselves involved in I just 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:10.000 like yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. When I see the data 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:12.280 center stuff, when I hear in this private credit the 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:14.559 private credit stuff with like tricula and first brands and 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:18.200 positive gen and uh, I forget whatever was it was 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:20.240 the there was the one there's now one in Europe 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:22.560 where that's us. Yeah. Yeah, the random Onneswer is just 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:25.360 like yeah, you know when we said we promised you 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:29.640 this collateral, we also promised it to seventeen other people. Sorry. Yeah, 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.640 I worry that they are going to start, like are 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:34.880 they allowed to It's. 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:38.320 A great question and my reporting and it's a great storage. 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:42.400 It's a great question. I'm not entirely sure like where, if, 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:45.280 and how they're coming into these things. In other words, 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:47.320 I wouldn't be surprised. I don't know, but I wouldn't 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:50.119 be surprised if one of the big private credit players, 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:52.959 which is again like some of these things are they 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:56.360 are just very lightly regulated banks, like to be clear, right, 0:11:56.480 --> 0:11:59.240 like they are lending money like and private credit. 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:01.359 Yes, it is a huge put. 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:02.920 So cool, so good. 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:04.000 I love that. 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:07.920 It's a huge debate right now, like is private credit 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:09.319 means a lot of different things whatever, But at the 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:11.320 end of the day, it is lending outside of the 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:14.120 banking system, Okay, like that that is safe to say. 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:17.120 So I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:20.240 there's you know, like a calshie like a polymarket, if 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:22.160 there is you know, kind of lending from these firms. 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:25.080 I don't know, but they are becoming the private credit 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:27.520 you know, players are becoming so much more active in 0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:31.360 the private sector, and and just all these private, privately 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.960 held companies where there's a whole matrix of like areas 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:38.160 where they could become involved. I don't know that, and 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:41.680 I would be curious, but it's probably an input that 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:45.880 they're looking at too, like just a research you know, input, right, 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:48.960 Like you know, we like we look at oh, what 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:50.880 is it saying about that we take about the grain 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:52.520 of salt, But like, you know, it's still something we're 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:54.320 going to look at. But it's an interesting question. 0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:57.400 They are the predictions, yeah, sorry, they are. They are 0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:01.319 quite accurate. The you know, there's you know, we can 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:03.520 there can be arguments made about whether or not they 0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:06.200 are like good for society, whether it's like an okay 0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.280 thing that we can bet on, you know, every single 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:13.000 kind of I think the the CAUSHI CEO trect Mansur 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:14.800 his quote is that you know, we want to make 0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:19.480 a monetizable asset out of every difference in opinion Jesus. 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:23.080 Christ, which is like that's like, yeah, the paraphrase Will 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:25.360 Manicer of Chapo when he was seeing a video of 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:27.440 a new sport with two guys run into each other. 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.000 You see, this is the kind of thing you do 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:31.400 in like. 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:35.280 Robo call, that's what it's giving. 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:40.679 It's like, yeah, we could very like near future dystopian. Well, 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:42.880 someone who spends a lot of time lives in Vegas. 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:44.680 I just want to say, this is an insult to 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:48.960 my beautiful gambling. Yeah, beautiful honest dice roll even all 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:54.400 crapsless craps and not this crappy. Yeah, it's it's very strange, 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:55.960 and I think we've discussed. 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:57.200 That's a new state motto. By the way, I really 0:13:57.280 --> 0:13:59.679 like that our craps are not this crappy. 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:01.040 I love that. 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.640 I'm gonna rush into that T shirt. 0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:04.079 I love that. 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:07.720 No, it's it is really scary though. Someone. I feel 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:09.760 like someone's going to die from this, Like it's gonna 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.480 it's gonna be this person dies by December thirty first, 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:14.840 and they're going to get hunted like running men. 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:18.000 Yes, yeah, that's okay, So we're almost there. 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:18.400 Yeah. 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:23.160 So recently, actually there was a bit of controversy over 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:26.760 like I guess what we would call death markets on Calshi. 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:32.640 So when the US attacked Iran. There were lots of 0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:36.720 markets on both poly Market and Calshi related to military 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.240 action in Iran, whether it would happen or not, by 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:41.680 when it would happen. Usually these are formatted in like, 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:47.480 you know, military strikes in Iran by xedate. Yeah, so 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:51.080 one of the contracts that both Calshi and Polymarket had 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:56.920 wash Camanie out by x date. Right, so this is 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.720 the supreme leader of Iran. Will he be out as 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:04.920 preme leader by this date? So the like layman's interpretation 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:09.520 of that would mean if he dies, he's out right. 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.000 You know, that's probably how you would So was he 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:16.960 in office anymore, he's dead, he's probably out right. So 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.920 when on that Saturday Trump announced that he had been 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:24.800 killed on poly Market, poly Market resolved their contract. Yes 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:28.720 he is out right, right, But Calshi did not do this. 0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:33.160 They froze, well, they like pause the market for like 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:35.040 eight hours to like figure out how to handle this. 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:38.120 What is the consequence of posing the market just to him? Claire, Oh, 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:40.240 it's just that there's no more trading happening, right, does 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.280 the price move at all? So it's just frozen. It's 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:42.920 just frozen. 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:48.040 And what they did is they reset when they made 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:53.200 their decision, they refunded everyone their stakes the value of 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:57.840 their contracts at last traded price before death. So if 0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:00.160 there was like a seventy four percent chance that he 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:03.440 would be out at twelve fifty nine and he died 0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:06.560 at one, then they would pay the Yes, contract would 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:10.440 pay out seventy four cents, right, right, So they did 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:15.040 that in order to isolate the death component, right because Calshi, 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:17.480 in what they have told me, they don't want to 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.800 allow people to profit on death. That's just not something 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:22.080 they're interested in doing. 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:22.320 Right. 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:27.480 However, there was very large controversy around this because all 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:30.200 of the Calshi traders who hopped on the Calshi and 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:32.560 were like, oh cool, yeah, he's probably going to be out, 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:38.000 I'll bet on this, they were Suddenly they did not 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:41.080 get the money that they expected to. And Cawshi had 0:16:41.160 --> 0:16:43.360 like in its rules, in its rule book that was 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:46.760 like laid out, there was like some fine print. But yeah, 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:49.280 we get into this like weird question of like why 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:51.200 didn't they pay because he was out? 0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:52.120 Like what was the death? 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:55.880 They don't want people? Death was a carve out? There 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:58.920 was a death carve out, so out by any other 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:01.640 means but death. Now, the Commanie was like in his 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.200 mid eighties, so it's kind of hard to imagine that 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:06.760 he was going to resign or like, you know, they 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:10.119 don't hold snap elections, so I don't really know. So 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:13.000 it was just resignation, I guess that, you know, or 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:17.560 like kidnapping like we saw in Venezuela. Maybe that was 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:20.160 its own own yeah episode, Yeah, that was its own thing, 0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:23.760 you know, was was what happened in Venezuela. Does that 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:26.200 count as like a war or just like an encourage? 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:29.720 So we get into all these really weird questions when 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:34.320 the quote unquote oracle of these prediction markets is only 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:39.159 resolving based on very specific outcomes, and so at a 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:41.800 certain point, the entire point of these prediction markets is 0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:45.640 that they provide ways to hedge outcomes that you can't 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:48.600 find in other markets. Yes, there's no way to like 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.359 hedge against that happening in the stock market, and like 0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:55.359 a clean way, right, but if like, like, okay, so 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:58.880 let's say that I'm a business owner and I want 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:01.480 to hedge against the pos stability that Trump does not 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:05.359 finish this term from my point of view as a 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:09.800 business owner, if he dies or resigns or is impeached. 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:13.240 None of all of those three things fulfill the same 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:14.959 thing for me, and I need a hedge against all 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:18.200 of those outcomes. But if we don't allow these markets 0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:20.840 to resolve on death, and you know, we can argue 0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:23.800 whether or not we could we should, they by definition 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:27.840 become less valuable hedging tools. And so you kind of 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:31.520 get into this point spot where you're like, what are 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:34.320 these actually for? Like who is the person that's hedging 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:36.120 against Camanie resigning? 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:50.440 Like you know what I mean? It feels like I 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:52.760 don't know. I have a weird view of this and 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:55.560 that I think prediction markets are scary and vile and 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:58.040 they enable something, but I also think they're a condition 0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:02.000 created by the stock market brain take. But I think 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:04.800 that the stock market has stopped being logical in any way, 0:19:04.840 --> 0:19:08.280 shape or form, and regular people, despite I would say, 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:10.080 what was like three or four years ago and Robinhood 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:14.040 went really nuts on options, I think that regular people 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:18.680 do not have access to a logical or rational way 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:21.119 of investing. Like you can't just invest in a company 0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:23.560 for being good. You can't invest in a clean outcome 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:25.680 because you're going to dine up against hedge funds and 0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:29.600 whoever fast trading and such that you couldn't possibly keep up. 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:31.879 They have information you don't have. There's no way you 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.600 could possibly keep up. I'm not saying prediction markets are good. 0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:38.040 I think they're terrifying. They are RoboCop shit. But it 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:39.920 feels like something that could only occur in a world 0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:42.840 where there is not enough other ways to accumulate wealth. 0:19:43.960 --> 0:19:45.120 I could not agree more. 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:47.280 And I think that one thing, like to this point, 0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:48.639 It was a few weeks ago, and I might have 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:50.240 even said it to you, but there was an AD 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:51.960 and I don't want to say for a certain it 0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:53.920 was either Caulci or polymarket, but it came up on 0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:56.560 TikTok or Instagram, and it was an AD or like 0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:59.600 a user user generated content type thing where a woman 0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:03.040 was holding a coffee and the did we talk about this? 0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:05.560 And the tagline again it was for one of them. 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:07.440 I don't want to misspeak, but it said, you know, 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:11.159 like my bet will pay for my coffee, you know, 0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:13.320 like my you know, da da da. And I was like, 0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:17.720 oh my god, that is so bleak because it really 0:20:17.840 --> 0:20:22.720 speaks to this broad like and again financialization of everything, 0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:25.119 not I you know, that's a big conversation right now. 0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:29.920 It's talking about a world in which it is hard 0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:32.960 to accumulate wealth. I mean, just to state the most 0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:35.880 obvious thing, you know, and like, you know, just broad inequality. 0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:39.360 My bet will help me pay for my like again, 0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:42.040 and I get it, Like I get that on I 0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:45.040 get why that would be an advertisement, and like I understand, 0:20:45.119 --> 0:20:47.120 but that is so you know, it's like a young woman, 0:20:47.200 --> 0:20:50.359 a young person, and it's like, oh my god, that 0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:53.600 is what that is a symptom of, you know, sort 0:20:53.600 --> 0:20:56.000 of like the world we're living in. And I'm not 0:20:56.240 --> 0:21:00.600 saying that's good or bad. I mean it probably it's bleak. 0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:02.000 It's like very bleak. 0:21:02.119 --> 0:21:04.240 It's the growth. It's the same thing with sports scambling. 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:07.480 And sports gambling seems for now like a lot more 0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:10.639 exploitative because they have the account managers who come and 0:21:10.680 --> 0:21:13.600 they're like, hey, you've lost three grand, why don't we 0:21:13.640 --> 0:21:16.280 give you two grand? Work of credit? Yeah, and all 0:21:16.320 --> 0:21:19.159 of these these ways that you could leverage that it 0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:21.560 is exploiting the fact that because if you think about 0:21:21.560 --> 0:21:24.439 other stock market is these days, what the fuck are 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:26.560 you meant to do if you if you actually if 0:21:26.600 --> 0:21:28.960 you invest in a company based on its fundamentals, you're 0:21:28.960 --> 0:21:32.159 going to lose money probably. Yeah, It's like Oracle is 0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:34.960 twelve percent up right now. I think we're just going 0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:36.399 out in a week, so who knows where it will be. 0:21:36.920 --> 0:21:39.480 Even though they had like negative twenty four billion dollars 0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:43.119 cash flow, they're obviously misleading people when it comes to 0:21:43.800 --> 0:21:46.560 how like their capex because they're going to spend only 0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:49.600 fifty billion this year and they've already spent over forty 0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:54.159 that work. But if you, if you, because the market 0:21:54.320 --> 0:21:57.040 and their hedge funds have decided there's something else they'd 0:21:57.119 --> 0:22:00.159 like to do, you cannot join that. So what your 0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:02.399 other options you've got? I don't know, Betting on the 0:22:02.480 --> 0:22:06.880 slap fights, yeah, Micheal slap competition, you've got sports gambling, 0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:10.280 and you've got this big, impenetrable thing at the stock market. 0:22:10.760 --> 0:22:14.800 But then you've got these seemingly honest, easy bets of Oh, 0:22:14.880 --> 0:22:18.600 I can just bet on an outcome that's fair. Yeah, 0:22:18.760 --> 0:22:21.320 unless the outcome is full of asterisks? 0:22:21.480 --> 0:22:25.160 Yes, correct? Yeah, yeah, I think there was some there 0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:28.359 was some research recently. I don't know how I should. 0:22:29.480 --> 0:22:33.560 I saw this on Twitter disclaimer that like only thirty 0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:38.399 two and a half percent of prediction market customers are profitable, right, 0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:40.600 so two thirds of players are losers. 0:22:40.840 --> 0:22:43.000 I mean that's gamblingbling you. 0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:47.040 So yeah, I think, yeah, we when we get into this, 0:22:47.240 --> 0:22:50.960 I think gen Z especially, there's a certain amount of 0:22:51.119 --> 0:22:57.080 financial nihilism just general, like dread visa via the future 0:22:58.320 --> 0:22:59.840 and how am I ever going to have a house 0:23:00.280 --> 0:23:03.760 and et cetera, et cetera, and oh here's poly market. 0:23:03.880 --> 0:23:06.600 They let me bet on you know, whether Trump will 0:23:06.680 --> 0:23:08.720 say China in his speech. 0:23:08.520 --> 0:23:09.720 And how many times he'll say it. 0:23:09.840 --> 0:23:11.720 Yeah, yeah, yeah, this could be a fun thing. 0:23:11.640 --> 0:23:14.240 That I could make money on to it, like you 0:23:14.320 --> 0:23:16.560 could make you could pay for your coffee with it. Yes, 0:23:16.800 --> 0:23:19.639 and yes, I will admit. My favorite Cauchy story is 0:23:19.680 --> 0:23:21.160 the one that I'm sure both of you read, where 0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:23.600 it's they tried to hire a fifteen year old streamer 0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:26.600 and I quote your brother legal team confirmed that we 0:23:26.640 --> 0:23:31.040 can't work with minors. R N kind of sad DBH, the. 0:23:31.200 --> 0:23:34.200 R N and the TVHR. 0:23:34.640 --> 0:23:34.880 Brother. 0:23:35.160 --> 0:23:36.680 It really just brings it all together. 0:23:36.760 --> 0:23:39.320 It really brings it together. But also you need to 0:23:39.359 --> 0:23:41.720 watch Running Man because all of this just reminds me 0:23:41.840 --> 0:23:44.679 of that moment, just just like the I get your 0:23:44.760 --> 0:23:48.720 slop in a bowl on whether Trump will will say 0:23:48.880 --> 0:23:51.840 a difference, it's cool nuclear the N word, like how 0:23:51.880 --> 0:23:53.760 many times will he do that? And he's done that 0:23:53.840 --> 0:23:55.920 many times, by the way, did not joke indeed, which 0:23:55.960 --> 0:24:00.280 is yet another dystopian thing. Yes, it just feel like 0:24:00.359 --> 0:24:03.120 the actual solution here would be more regulation of banks 0:24:03.160 --> 0:24:04.920 and also getting rid of all of this. I think 0:24:04.960 --> 0:24:07.600 sports gamblings. I know you probably can't come out on 0:24:07.680 --> 0:24:10.280 this directly, but I think sports gambling is like one 0:24:10.320 --> 0:24:13.920 of the most noxious things because living in Vegas, gambling 0:24:14.080 --> 0:24:19.240 is everywhere, but it's also very very regulated. If you listen, 0:24:19.680 --> 0:24:23.760 if you look anything close to twenty one, they will 0:24:23.880 --> 0:24:26.760 come and card you, and they will chase you a 0:24:26.760 --> 0:24:30.200 wrend like they know I'm coming up on forty and 0:24:30.240 --> 0:24:32.879 they still like d me sometimes I'm beautiful en not but. 0:24:33.359 --> 0:24:35.240 Yeah, you look you don't look a day over, you 0:24:35.320 --> 0:24:36.440 look youth twenty. 0:24:37.480 --> 0:24:41.600 But nevertheless it's you. It's because they know that gambling 0:24:41.720 --> 0:24:44.720 is scary and that it's addictive, and that a win 0:24:44.880 --> 0:24:47.560 can make you think every other one will happen. Except 0:24:47.640 --> 0:24:49.439 now it's just you can do it anywhere. You can 0:24:49.520 --> 0:24:51.440 just do it. Everything in the phone you've got every 0:24:51.480 --> 0:24:55.120 device you can gamble. Ah. There are Instagram accounts, yes, 0:24:55.440 --> 0:24:57.600 that just there's there's this one with a guy who 0:24:57.680 --> 0:25:00.360 just dresses up like an old man and has beer 0:25:00.440 --> 0:25:03.760 full of bush fridge full of bush light and it's 0:25:03.880 --> 0:25:08.199 just him being like and he's on a gambling site that. 0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:12.639 Is extremely extremely bleak. And I think it's yeah, and 0:25:12.800 --> 0:25:14.840 I think that like it is prompting like in the 0:25:14.960 --> 0:25:17.440 more traditional like so in banking and kind of like 0:25:17.800 --> 0:25:20.720 I think it is prompting these bigger questions and kind 0:25:20.720 --> 0:25:24.560 of existential questions about like, yeah, what is the difference, 0:25:24.840 --> 0:25:26.760 you know, in what we're doing and kind of like 0:25:26.920 --> 0:25:29.359 what is like what are we doing here? I mean, 0:25:29.400 --> 0:25:32.879 you know again, it's like it is going back to 0:25:32.960 --> 0:25:35.359 the regulation that is playing out right now. And that 0:25:35.480 --> 0:25:37.399 is why it's such an interesting conversation where you do 0:25:37.480 --> 0:25:41.200 have the Trump administration rolling back so many aspects of 0:25:41.320 --> 0:25:43.159 banking regulation separate from prediction. 0:25:42.920 --> 0:25:45.520 You know, forget prediction markets, all kind of things different. 0:25:45.920 --> 0:25:48.520 So one example is, you know, for years banks have 0:25:48.560 --> 0:25:52.320 tried to get regulators to go a little bit uh 0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:56.280 make the stress testing process you know again super important 0:25:56.480 --> 0:26:01.600 post where regulators every year will kind of simulate different 0:26:01.880 --> 0:26:06.760 like disaster scenarios again, like totally hypothetical employment shoots up, 0:26:07.080 --> 0:26:10.159 stock market crashes, you know, these hypothetical scenarios bank and 0:26:10.200 --> 0:26:12.200 they test the banks currently like with the amount of 0:26:12.280 --> 0:26:15.120 capital that a Wells Fargo or a JP Morgan has, 0:26:15.480 --> 0:26:16.200 can you weather this? 0:26:16.440 --> 0:26:17.080 Can you withstand? 0:26:17.280 --> 0:26:20.480 They always do very they always do very well with 0:26:20.800 --> 0:26:23.000 caveats obviously, but you know they come and say, okay, 0:26:23.040 --> 0:26:24.080 you know that could be a weakness. 0:26:24.119 --> 0:26:24.919 That could be a weakness. 0:26:25.200 --> 0:26:27.479 Private credit has also introduced an interesting, you know kind 0:26:27.480 --> 0:26:31.320 of wrinkle here because it is by definition there is 0:26:31.480 --> 0:26:33.480 you know, kind of this hidden leverage, and regulators have 0:26:33.520 --> 0:26:36.800 talked about that don't but they're not thanks correct and 0:26:36.960 --> 0:26:39.320 so that's a whole other, fascinating, you know kind of 0:26:39.359 --> 0:26:41.720 ecosystem where it's like, okay, you are a bank, I'm 0:26:41.760 --> 0:26:45.160 going to stress tests you, you are lending you bank 0:26:46.000 --> 0:26:49.280 are ed bank okay incorporated? You are going to lend 0:26:49.400 --> 0:26:53.520 to private credit lender Okay. But when you lend to there, 0:26:53.960 --> 0:26:57.760 there's not as much tracking what that what your borrower 0:26:58.160 --> 0:27:00.600 is lending to. So you can see it is hard 0:27:00.680 --> 0:27:02.120 to track where that money is going. 0:27:02.200 --> 0:27:03.920 And I read the other day. I think it was 0:27:04.000 --> 0:27:06.520 middle of last year the Boston Fed, I think it 0:27:06.680 --> 0:27:09.680 was said that fourteen percent of large banks loans went 0:27:09.720 --> 0:27:11.240 to private credit and private equity. 0:27:12.880 --> 0:27:17.440 It's a massive is a massive chunk and of loan 0:27:17.520 --> 0:27:19.600 growth overall. And I think that like when you go 0:27:19.760 --> 0:27:22.040 to so when you take prediction markets and you kind 0:27:22.040 --> 0:27:24.600 of take like the current regulatory backdrop, it's like and 0:27:24.800 --> 0:27:28.160 adds an interesting wrinkle because it's like, okay, by and large, 0:27:28.160 --> 0:27:30.240 a lot of the financial regulators are like, yes, we 0:27:30.440 --> 0:27:33.040 want to be Like. The bottom line is they are 0:27:33.119 --> 0:27:37.800 rolling back like traditional guardrails, you know, like around the banks, 0:27:38.160 --> 0:27:41.080 but now prediction markets like okay, and that is currently 0:27:41.160 --> 0:27:44.600 being like you know, kind of that is being sorted 0:27:44.680 --> 0:27:47.119 out right now, so we'll see. And like the CFTC, 0:27:47.359 --> 0:27:49.760 I want to say, is like the only regulator again, 0:27:49.800 --> 0:27:51.600 it's like the most relevant one here. It's like come 0:27:51.680 --> 0:27:55.240 out with like some guidance, but it remains to be seen, 0:27:55.400 --> 0:27:57.680 so you know, we'll see kind of how the administration 0:27:57.800 --> 0:27:58.200 handles that. 0:27:58.440 --> 0:28:01.760 I just I feel like right now now personal opinion 0:28:01.880 --> 0:28:04.359 not held by I guess I think that there is 0:28:04.400 --> 0:28:10.680 a massive regulatory problem with laying because right now my 0:28:10.840 --> 0:28:15.119 favorite example is open Ai. So open Ai signed a 0:28:15.160 --> 0:28:17.640 deal with AMD, except they didn't. It was just an 0:28:17.640 --> 0:28:21.160 agreement without any formal contract. AMD is not increased guidance 0:28:21.680 --> 0:28:24.440 oracle three hundred billion dollar deal with our open Ai 0:28:24.640 --> 0:28:27.320 can't afford to serve it, don't have the has to 0:28:27.400 --> 0:28:31.680 raise debt. Data centers aren't built. S k Heinez and 0:28:31.760 --> 0:28:34.280 open Ai. Samsung and open Ai signed a big deal 0:28:34.359 --> 0:28:36.480 to take forty percent of RAM, except they didn't. It 0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:38.680 was a letter of intent. All of these stocks have 0:28:39.000 --> 0:28:42.000 popped off of these deals. H nothing happened. It's very 0:28:42.120 --> 0:28:47.240 obvious there was never anything official. There should be regulated 0:28:47.520 --> 0:28:50.760 because people in the audience might hear this and say, 0:28:50.840 --> 0:28:55.360 that's not stock manipulation, But what is if that isn't? 0:28:55.720 --> 0:28:58.120 If that isn't and people could say, oh, it's marketing. 0:28:58.640 --> 0:29:01.960 Oh we used weezer words. But it's like it feels 0:29:02.080 --> 0:29:05.720 like things like this will lead to outcomes that lose 0:29:05.960 --> 0:29:08.000 a lot of money. There's a lot of people a 0:29:08.040 --> 0:29:11.360 lot of money, and unless we do something soon, it's 0:29:11.440 --> 0:29:13.440 own to get only gonna get worse. Because every time 0:29:13.560 --> 0:29:17.719 someone like this is not stopped, someone else doesn't. They 0:29:17.800 --> 0:29:20.720 just like fuck it. Why would we bother. That will 0:29:20.800 --> 0:29:22.640 lead into the prediction markets as well, because you could 0:29:22.680 --> 0:29:26.160 just start saying whatever. But that's actually that is the 0:29:26.200 --> 0:29:28.320 biggest thing with prediction. You can just say stuff. 0:29:28.440 --> 0:29:31.720 Now there's like over the the extent to which the 0:29:31.760 --> 0:29:35.800 stock market is reliant on like increasingly complicated bits of semantics. Yes, 0:29:35.960 --> 0:29:38.960 it's like we've just never we're ad like a the 0:29:39.000 --> 0:29:43.560 semantic indexes, the asters. 0:29:42.440 --> 0:29:48.080 Like letter of intent, agreement consideration too. There are deals, 0:29:48.360 --> 0:29:52.160 their deals, their agreements, but we've not changed guidance. We've 0:29:52.200 --> 0:29:54.520 not put any money. Now one's actually doing anything. But 0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:56.920 you know, it's just. 0:29:57.600 --> 0:29:59.560 Lest we forget a memorandum of understanding. 0:29:59.600 --> 0:30:03.280 Memory MOUs are the best. I love a good MoU 0:30:03.440 --> 0:30:07.600 They mean nothing, but they mean absolutely everyone. I love ANU. 0:30:24.120 --> 0:30:28.240 It's frustrating because I am not a particularly sophisticated trader. 0:30:28.320 --> 0:30:30.320 I may have only recently started putting money in the 0:30:30.400 --> 0:30:33.200 S and P five hundred after a period of not 0:30:34.000 --> 0:30:36.840 but it's and that's in an index, by the way. 0:30:37.760 --> 0:30:40.960 It's very responsible, very responsible. 0:30:41.800 --> 0:30:43.280 But the point loves the eighty twenty. 0:30:43.800 --> 0:30:45.000 Yeah, I love diversification. 0:30:45.200 --> 0:30:49.320 Here's the thing. My worry is is that it's very 0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:52.280 obvious how you manipulate these markets, and without regulations to 0:30:52.320 --> 0:30:55.080 stop people, it's only going to get more ridiculous. You're 0:30:55.120 --> 0:30:58.160 just going to get CEOs that say things to create 0:30:58.240 --> 0:31:01.320 a market, possibly creating them themselves. And if they're a 0:31:01.360 --> 0:31:05.880 private company, that's not illegal, I believe. Yeah. 0:31:06.080 --> 0:31:09.000 So when we talk about like, mentioned markets are a 0:31:09.040 --> 0:31:10.760 good example of where I think a lot of the 0:31:10.880 --> 0:31:16.680 like more manipulation concerns are. So a mention market is like, Okay, 0:31:16.840 --> 0:31:21.200 during this podcast, will ed say fuck with We're like 0:31:21.320 --> 0:31:25.200 we're betting on that, like that, the odds are the 0:31:25.240 --> 0:31:31.680 odds are high. You just did it, Ben, Yeah, So 0:31:32.160 --> 0:31:35.200 like will Caroline Levitt at the next White House press 0:31:35.240 --> 0:31:37.000 conference say the word China? 0:31:37.880 --> 0:31:38.120 People? 0:31:38.280 --> 0:31:40.520 These are mentioned markets, So we're literally just betting on 0:31:40.720 --> 0:31:42.760 the words that will come out of someone's mouth. 0:31:43.000 --> 0:31:43.160 Right. 0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:48.720 So, a very high profile example of this is coinbase 0:31:48.840 --> 0:31:52.560 CEO Brian Armstrong. You know, at the end of an 0:31:52.600 --> 0:31:56.400 earnings call, there was a polymarket mentioned market for what 0:31:56.520 --> 0:32:00.200 will Brian Armstrong say on the earnings call? And and 0:32:00.840 --> 0:32:04.320 you know literally like right before the like moderator was 0:32:04.360 --> 0:32:06.800 like thanks for joining everyone, like right before he's like, oh, 0:32:06.880 --> 0:32:09.560 someone just handed me the polymarket for what I'm gonna say, 0:32:09.840 --> 0:32:12.480 So I'll just get through all these you know, Bitcoin 0:32:12.720 --> 0:32:14.840 web three. It just like went down the list and 0:32:15.000 --> 0:32:19.120 like paid all of them off. So he has come 0:32:19.160 --> 0:32:21.240 out and said that he was not trading on that 0:32:21.360 --> 0:32:24.600 market or involved in any way. But like we are 0:32:24.680 --> 0:32:28.520 opening ourselves up to like new ways that we can 0:32:28.680 --> 0:32:32.000 like manipulate markets. Yeah, insider trade and like when we 0:32:32.360 --> 0:32:36.120 create a market for everything and everything can become a 0:32:36.200 --> 0:32:40.440 bet more people than ever can become insider traders because 0:32:40.480 --> 0:32:43.600 there's just so much more things to insider trade on. 0:32:44.120 --> 0:32:47.840 Well, is a question, how do you how much is 0:32:48.040 --> 0:32:51.440 necessary to create a market, Like what how much money 0:32:51.600 --> 0:32:53.120 does it require? This is a good question. 0:32:53.480 --> 0:32:58.720 So polymarket pr has told me that the primary criteria 0:32:59.120 --> 0:33:03.480 for if a market can be created, because they field 0:33:03.600 --> 0:33:08.840 suggestions from their users. The primary criteria is if there's 0:33:08.880 --> 0:33:11.480 evidence of demand for the yes side. 0:33:11.280 --> 0:33:14.560 And the no side. That's it. What is evidence in 0:33:14.680 --> 0:33:15.320 this case. 0:33:15.720 --> 0:33:19.600 You know, if there's activity on Twitter about it, if 0:33:19.640 --> 0:33:21.960 people in the discord are like, please, I want to 0:33:21.960 --> 0:33:24.680 bet on this, it seems pretty ad hoc. I don't 0:33:24.760 --> 0:33:27.240 have much more detail than that, because they give me 0:33:27.320 --> 0:33:27.720 more detail. 0:33:27.760 --> 0:33:31.560 Imagine they don't need to yeah, yeah, it's not money. 0:33:32.120 --> 0:33:35.520 It's I mean, it's just like evidence of trading demand, right, 0:33:35.640 --> 0:33:37.480 and then they'll open it and then people can start 0:33:37.640 --> 0:33:40.160 right on it. You don't have to they have to 0:33:40.200 --> 0:33:42.200 be They don't have to be like, all right, you 0:33:42.280 --> 0:33:43.960 all have five hundred dollars ready to go on this, 0:33:44.160 --> 0:33:46.360 like there's nothing like you like, there's just as long 0:33:46.440 --> 0:33:50.160 as they can see that people will want to trade 0:33:50.200 --> 0:33:51.160 on it, they will make. 0:33:51.040 --> 0:33:52.920 It makes sense, yes, And that kind of goes to 0:33:53.000 --> 0:33:55.200 the question of just like thinly like with banks, like 0:33:55.360 --> 0:33:59.640 thin thinly regulated versus not thinly traded excuse me, versus 0:33:59.680 --> 0:34:01.720 not right. It goes to the question of like when 0:34:01.760 --> 0:34:04.560 banks look at something, they're like, we can't make a 0:34:04.720 --> 0:34:07.360 market out of like, you know, trading on this one. 0:34:09.000 --> 0:34:11.120 Two hundred thousand dollars in volume, Like there's just no 0:34:11.239 --> 0:34:13.440 way that like exactly huge bank is ever going to 0:34:13.600 --> 0:34:16.399 like yeah, you just open yourself up to so much. 0:34:16.640 --> 0:34:19.400 So it goes back to that, Yeah, I mean also, 0:34:19.480 --> 0:34:21.560 I guess banks I didn't even think if that ye 0:34:21.640 --> 0:34:23.399 banks went want will touch because there's not enough money 0:34:23.400 --> 0:34:23.560 in it. 0:34:24.320 --> 0:34:26.719 I think it's when I think of like a thinly 0:34:26.800 --> 0:34:28.560 traded like stock. Yeah, exactly. 0:34:28.680 --> 0:34:31.160 It just goes back to liquidity and like the volatility, 0:34:31.280 --> 0:34:33.960 and like if banks can find a way to make 0:34:34.239 --> 0:34:35.239 money on something. 0:34:35.200 --> 0:34:37.680 Legally, they will, Yeah, yeah, they will. 0:34:37.800 --> 0:34:39.640 And so it's i you know, you could see a 0:34:39.680 --> 0:34:41.960 world in which and I'm not saying like there is 0:34:42.080 --> 0:34:44.000 no regulatory framework that would allow this. 0:34:44.120 --> 0:34:46.440 No, I'm not saying that because in the future, in 0:34:46.560 --> 0:34:49.720 the future you could see it, like who. 0:34:49.680 --> 0:34:51.279 Knows what that could look like. And so the banks 0:34:51.320 --> 0:34:52.800 are just like, Okay, we're going to wait for the 0:34:52.840 --> 0:34:55.320 regulators to say something. But like it comes to a 0:34:55.440 --> 0:34:58.640 question of also like internal enforcement, like banks all have 0:34:58.880 --> 0:35:02.799 like very very clear, you know, kind of rules around 0:35:02.800 --> 0:35:08.160 insider trading. Someone has non public information, if you trade 0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:09.759 on that, you will be fired. Like you know, that's 0:35:09.920 --> 0:35:12.640 very like well worn, you know kind of like but 0:35:13.000 --> 0:35:17.680 now with prediction markets, how do you enforce that? It 0:35:17.880 --> 0:35:20.560 is hard And so banks are like actively and again 0:35:20.560 --> 0:35:22.359 I'm just like talking about banks specifically. You could also 0:35:22.400 --> 0:35:25.760 talk about like chech companies, healthcare companies, whatever. But banks 0:35:25.840 --> 0:35:27.680 where like we have talked about this a lot, like 0:35:28.040 --> 0:35:31.279 being this nexus of the markets, and they do have 0:35:31.320 --> 0:35:33.400 a lot of information that you know, Okay, that's different 0:35:33.440 --> 0:35:36.200 from someone in another sector, like how does a compliance 0:35:36.239 --> 0:35:38.920 team enforce that? That is an open question right now 0:35:39.000 --> 0:35:41.360 that banks are like actively figuring out, and it's a 0:35:41.400 --> 0:35:44.040 really interesting question of compliance and enforcement. 0:35:44.120 --> 0:35:44.239 You know. 0:35:44.360 --> 0:35:47.800 Internally, it's just it feels like the wauls of breaking 0:35:47.880 --> 0:35:50.040 down around everything. Because before we do the prep call 0:35:50.120 --> 0:35:52.400 for this, we talk about analysts, for example, and I 0:35:52.520 --> 0:35:54.719 named someone. I'm not going to name people on this 0:35:55.040 --> 0:35:57.680 just for professional reasons, but people know who are. 0:35:58.040 --> 0:35:59.960 We're very professional, all very professor. 0:36:00.600 --> 0:36:03.840 I say, fuck, but there are these I need someone 0:36:03.960 --> 0:36:05.960 and you were like, that's not an analyst. Yeah. And 0:36:06.040 --> 0:36:08.800 it's becoming obviously because they're on CNBC, they're on Bloomberg. 0:36:08.880 --> 0:36:11.360 It's like, you've got these people pretending to be analysts. 0:36:11.360 --> 0:36:14.319 You've got these entities like private credit pretending to be thanks, 0:36:14.320 --> 0:36:17.880 You've got prediction markets pretending to be stocked. Yeah, it 0:36:18.040 --> 0:36:20.680 just feels like the walls are being torn down, and 0:36:20.840 --> 0:36:23.160 I know that this is gonna People aren't gonna like this. 0:36:23.440 --> 0:36:25.239 I don't think most people should have access to the 0:36:25.280 --> 0:36:28.000 stock market or gambling. I think that they are dangerous 0:36:28.680 --> 0:36:31.000 and I think or at least they should be regulated 0:36:31.040 --> 0:36:34.200 in such a way that it's less dangerous, not just 0:36:34.880 --> 0:36:38.480 open season. And then the third guy on Twitter is like, 0:36:38.600 --> 0:36:40.920 I'm an analyst, mate, you are a poster. 0:36:41.480 --> 0:36:42.680 Well that's the interesting question. 0:36:42.760 --> 0:36:44.320 And I mean, like I couldn't help but think in 0:36:44.400 --> 0:36:47.919 that moment of journalism, right, I mean, like obviously, okay, 0:36:47.920 --> 0:36:51.600 they're journalists and writers, and then they're like people who 0:36:51.760 --> 0:36:53.560 do not have the same are not held to the 0:36:53.600 --> 0:36:55.480 same standards, and that's a whole other conversation. 0:36:55.840 --> 0:36:57.240 But like with analysts, yeah, totally. 0:36:57.320 --> 0:36:59.759 I mean, like it's there are very clear kind of 0:36:59.880 --> 0:37:02.399 like you are regulated by FINRA, which is the self 0:37:02.480 --> 0:37:05.560 regulated you know, they're a regulator and they regulator. They 0:37:05.640 --> 0:37:09.480 regulate the brokerage industry, and like any quote cell side analyst, 0:37:09.640 --> 0:37:11.839 so like you know, an analyst who is again held 0:37:11.920 --> 0:37:15.400 to these standards like industry standards of disclosures and like 0:37:15.480 --> 0:37:17.360 conflict of interests and things like that, like that is 0:37:17.480 --> 0:37:20.040 quote an analyst. Yeah, you can be an of course, 0:37:20.120 --> 0:37:22.799 there are like other ways, but like that, you can 0:37:22.840 --> 0:37:25.279 be an analyst in and that is legitimate in like 0:37:25.360 --> 0:37:29.399 another sector or like another like on the by side. Okay, fine, 0:37:29.440 --> 0:37:32.120 that's all legitimate, but there are certain standards that you're 0:37:32.160 --> 0:37:34.279 held to if you're like, for example, you know, like 0:37:34.360 --> 0:37:38.200 a FINRA analyst, and like that's not analyst capital a analyst, 0:37:38.239 --> 0:37:40.200 and that's not always clear to like a viewer of CMOS. 0:37:40.640 --> 0:37:43.120 This is actually a question what is a sell side analyst? 0:37:43.280 --> 0:37:45.920 Because I have listeners who have lost this before, and 0:37:45.960 --> 0:37:47.839 I realized I haven't really defined it myself very well. 0:37:47.960 --> 0:37:52.800 You would not for sure you're at a brokerage, something 0:37:52.960 --> 0:37:55.719 like brokerage inside of a bank, or you're just like 0:37:55.760 --> 0:37:59.880 a standalone kind of brokerage a Morgan Stanley. Great great example. 0:38:00.040 --> 0:38:02.520 They have their investment bank and that's like okay, they 0:38:02.560 --> 0:38:04.400 have their bankers over here. And on the other side 0:38:04.760 --> 0:38:06.799 and it's not this simple, but like on the other side, 0:38:06.800 --> 0:38:09.440 you have the cell side, and that is these analysts 0:38:09.480 --> 0:38:11.800 who are writing research reports. 0:38:11.920 --> 0:38:15.359 They are held to FINRA rule two two for one. 0:38:15.600 --> 0:38:19.320 I think SECTIONNE six two two for one. Go google it. 0:38:19.440 --> 0:38:21.960 That covers everything that like a cell side analyst must 0:38:22.040 --> 0:38:24.960 be held to. They are on the cell side versus 0:38:25.000 --> 0:38:28.680 the buy side. So they are selling you know, like 0:38:28.880 --> 0:38:31.840 research and you know, versus like they're not managing a 0:38:31.920 --> 0:38:35.719 fund right like they are giving information, they're issuing a 0:38:35.800 --> 0:38:39.040 buy hold sell. They are giving price targets, they are 0:38:39.120 --> 0:38:42.360 looking at financial models. They are in a different spot 0:38:42.520 --> 0:38:45.200 than against someone on the buy side. That is like 0:38:45.719 --> 0:38:51.720 reading the cell side selling selling research, sell selling knowledge 0:38:51.760 --> 0:38:55.200 and wisdom. I don't know how the SEC defines that, 0:38:55.280 --> 0:38:57.200 I'll be very clear, And it's kind of like, I mean, 0:38:57.239 --> 0:38:57.920 it's kind. 0:38:57.800 --> 0:38:59.000 Of outdated this way. 0:38:59.120 --> 0:39:01.439 You know, it's almost like an antiquated thing sellside versus 0:39:01.480 --> 0:39:04.360 by high just kind of how like a wirehouse Like 0:39:04.440 --> 0:39:06.359 that's a very antiquated way of saying, like a big 0:39:06.440 --> 0:39:07.359 wealth manager. 0:39:07.160 --> 0:39:08.839 Big thing. That's scattering me at the moment. And I'm 0:39:08.880 --> 0:39:13.480 not naming anyone specific for professional reasons, but why is 0:39:13.560 --> 0:39:17.680 it that these analysts always set these massive targets and 0:39:17.880 --> 0:39:21.239 don't seem to be affected by reality. Because there is 0:39:21.360 --> 0:39:27.919 a nonspecific prominent data center analyst who quite literally went 0:39:28.040 --> 0:39:32.280 out on television yesterday and said the oracle was a goodbye, 0:39:33.000 --> 0:39:35.080 and it was that it's actually better when you look 0:39:35.080 --> 0:39:37.600 at the report. This is factually incorrect. It's not even 0:39:37.600 --> 0:39:40.920 an opinion thing. The cell side analysts always seem very 0:39:41.000 --> 0:39:45.480 positive even when reality isn't reflecting that. Shouldn't they know better? 0:39:45.760 --> 0:39:48.400 Is there a reason they would be more positive in 0:39:48.600 --> 0:39:50.799 general not talking about this person. Yeah. 0:39:50.920 --> 0:39:52.800 I mean it's like this is like one of my 0:39:52.960 --> 0:39:55.359 favorite issues. It's just it's really fascinating because it kind 0:39:55.360 --> 0:39:58.759 of speaks to like this proliferation of like anyone can 0:39:58.840 --> 0:40:00.840 put out research and like you can kind of like 0:40:00.920 --> 0:40:04.440 a lowercase a analyst versus capital a analyst. I think 0:40:04.520 --> 0:40:06.880 that the thing to always go back to is, you know, 0:40:07.000 --> 0:40:09.279 two thousand and one. I think two thousand and two 0:40:09.800 --> 0:40:13.080 new regulations were put in you know, spearheaded by Elliott Spitzer, 0:40:13.120 --> 0:40:15.319 who was the New York AG at the time, after 0:40:15.520 --> 0:40:19.120 you know, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley put you know, certain 0:40:19.160 --> 0:40:22.600 analysts had put out research that were like was super 0:40:22.680 --> 0:40:25.640 bullish and was total mismatch to how they were privately 0:40:25.719 --> 0:40:29.759 describing Amazon. You know, Henry Blodgett famously, you know, put 0:40:29.840 --> 0:40:32.560 out a report band from the industry that's all well, 0:40:32.640 --> 0:40:36.240 you know, chronicled. All new regulations were put in place 0:40:36.400 --> 0:40:42.359 around from security regulators around like okay, you are an analyst, Okay, 0:40:42.600 --> 0:40:45.480 you have to include all sorts of new disclosures, which 0:40:45.520 --> 0:40:47.440 is great, I mean, you know, and and again very 0:40:47.480 --> 0:40:52.000 high a member of my household. I think the language 0:40:52.040 --> 0:40:53.719 is something like me or a member of my household 0:40:54.640 --> 0:40:57.000 owns a security and X y z or something like that. 0:40:57.960 --> 0:41:00.839 And also, you know kind of these charts you'll see 0:41:00.840 --> 0:41:04.360 at the bottom of a report where it shows the 0:41:04.760 --> 0:41:07.919 stock price, like an Apple, for example, the stock price 0:41:08.040 --> 0:41:10.920 relative to like where their price target is to hold 0:41:10.960 --> 0:41:13.439 them accountable for like you know kind of what that's 0:41:13.480 --> 0:41:15.120 looking like and stop, uh. 0:41:15.280 --> 0:41:17.040 That would require someone to hold them accountable. 0:41:17.719 --> 0:41:18.480 Yes, exactly. 0:41:18.640 --> 0:41:21.680 And analysts are like, by and large, I mean, there's 0:41:21.800 --> 0:41:23.320 plenty of data on this, but like they are a 0:41:23.480 --> 0:41:28.719 very like bullish group. I mean the data if you 0:41:28.840 --> 0:41:31.120 just look at buy hold sell, like, they continue to 0:41:31.160 --> 0:41:34.480 be that and and the whole industry has really evolved 0:41:34.600 --> 0:41:36.560 where you know, this is a whole other conversation. We 0:41:36.640 --> 0:41:38.600 talked about this a little bit, but like people should 0:41:38.600 --> 0:41:41.480 be aware that like corporate access is you know, just 0:41:41.600 --> 0:41:44.520 a much bigger part of the analyst. 0:41:44.239 --> 0:41:45.080 Job and and all that. 0:41:45.400 --> 0:41:47.440 When you say access, what do you mean, Yeah, Like. 0:41:48.560 --> 0:41:52.040 You're an analyst at a again, a Morgan Stanley or 0:41:52.239 --> 0:41:55.799 a UBS. And just to call out two random ones 0:41:56.960 --> 0:42:00.160 you your clients, like a hedge fund investor, you know, 0:42:00.320 --> 0:42:04.040 like a big institutional investor access to the management team 0:42:04.440 --> 0:42:06.560 of the company that I cover as an analyst. So 0:42:06.800 --> 0:42:11.080 I'm covering I'm covering the you know, I'm a healthcare 0:42:11.080 --> 0:42:13.400 analyst and I'm covering Johnson and Johnson, and like I 0:42:13.480 --> 0:42:15.680 can connect, you know, like the investor who's reading my 0:42:15.760 --> 0:42:18.880 research with the CFO of Johnson and Johnson. I'm just 0:42:18.920 --> 0:42:22.279 calling out random companies, but it's that connection. It's that 0:42:22.400 --> 0:42:23.839 like link, and it's well, it's access. 0:42:23.960 --> 0:42:29.879 It's just access feels that feels like a bad thing, 0:42:30.120 --> 0:42:32.239 like that doesn't feel like it benefits. 0:42:33.239 --> 0:42:35.239 It is definitely a you know, it's one of these 0:42:35.280 --> 0:42:38.200 things that that analysts have to manage and like these 0:42:38.239 --> 0:42:39.880 one of these and I don't want to call it 0:42:39.920 --> 0:42:42.400 a conflict, because it's not inherently a conflict, but it 0:42:42.560 --> 0:42:45.560 is another kind of piece of the job that frankly, 0:42:46.640 --> 0:42:48.640 and there are many fantastic analysts out there who do 0:42:48.800 --> 0:42:51.600 manage that well and put out you know, have great relationships, 0:42:51.640 --> 0:42:54.880 but put out critical research, you know, like substantive research, 0:42:54.960 --> 0:42:56.799 and you just have to manage that. And there are 0:42:56.840 --> 0:42:59.279 many fantastic analysts who do. But I even said, it's 0:42:59.400 --> 0:43:03.000 not unlike sometimes being a beat reporter, where you have 0:43:03.200 --> 0:43:06.080 to maintain just like good working relationships with the people 0:43:06.160 --> 0:43:09.400 you cover, even if you're going to say an accurate 0:43:09.520 --> 0:43:11.920 but like critical fair thing, and then you just have 0:43:12.040 --> 0:43:14.560 to like move on again. Very different from the role 0:43:14.600 --> 0:43:16.520 of an analyst, you know, but it. 0:43:16.640 --> 0:43:19.200 Is there are similarities. I don't know if it's different, 0:43:19.320 --> 0:43:20.239 there are similarities. 0:43:20.400 --> 0:43:21.759 I just wait, I just want to make sure I 0:43:21.840 --> 0:43:26.080 please please, right, So, a sell side analyst writes reports 0:43:26.280 --> 0:43:29.960 about companies in a certain sector and puts those reports 0:43:30.000 --> 0:43:33.240 out publicly and disseminates them to other banks, et cetera. 0:43:33.600 --> 0:43:36.839 And then hedge funds can go to the analyst and say, 0:43:37.360 --> 0:43:40.600 I want your specific research that you've done on these companies, 0:43:40.680 --> 0:43:43.759 and also can you introduce me to their management team. 0:43:44.160 --> 0:43:46.520 That's part of the offering exactly, I see exactly. 0:43:46.560 --> 0:43:50.600 And therefore, to be able to connect clients to management 0:43:50.960 --> 0:43:54.240 and make money for your firm, you have to maybe 0:43:54.320 --> 0:43:57.200 you have to be a little more positive in your 0:43:57.280 --> 0:43:59.799 report on that firm than you normally would in order 0:43:59.880 --> 0:44:02.359 to be able to connect your clients with them. 0:44:02.640 --> 0:44:03.279 That's that's it. 0:44:04.040 --> 0:44:08.040 That would be the cynical take, absolutely, but the very 0:44:08.160 --> 0:44:16.240 fair criticism I would say yes, absolutely, I don't cynical 0:44:16.280 --> 0:44:18.360 take but but but it is it's just like a 0:44:18.440 --> 0:44:22.280 feature that and again they're like excellent, excellent, excellent analysts 0:44:22.280 --> 0:44:23.600 who just like manage. 0:44:23.239 --> 0:44:25.799 That's why we're being on specifically, but and. 0:44:25.840 --> 0:44:27.680 Who just manage that. And it's just like being again 0:44:27.680 --> 0:44:28.000 and again. 0:44:28.200 --> 0:44:30.640 Yes, okay, there are differences, but it is not unlike 0:44:31.920 --> 0:44:34.040 you write a tough story on a company. You are 0:44:34.280 --> 0:44:36.719 fair and then you got to move on and then 0:44:36.719 --> 0:44:38.319 you got to like move on, you know what I mean. 0:44:38.640 --> 0:44:39.600 But the thing is, I don't know. 0:44:39.680 --> 0:44:39.840 I know. 0:44:40.200 --> 0:44:43.120 I think access journalism is bullshing and I think we're 0:44:43.160 --> 0:44:45.719 in the beginning of history. As I wrote yeah last week, 0:44:46.160 --> 0:44:50.080 it is it's no longer useful to do access. Access 0:44:50.120 --> 0:44:52.320 journalism doesn't work. It doesn't get you anything. If a 0:44:52.360 --> 0:44:55.400 PR firm or a PR person at a company doesn't 0:44:55.400 --> 0:44:57.480 answer your question because they're mad at you, that's their 0:44:57.560 --> 0:44:59.919 fucking problem. This is not the opinion of my guests, 0:45:00.160 --> 0:45:02.840 is just me. I just when you told me this 0:45:02.960 --> 0:45:04.400 for the first time in the pre courl I was 0:45:04.520 --> 0:45:06.560 kind of I sat and thought about it a lot 0:45:06.600 --> 0:45:09.080 because it's like, you don't have to agree with me here. 0:45:09.320 --> 0:45:12.759 It feels antithetical to good analysis to be like, well, 0:45:12.840 --> 0:45:15.839 I can't be too mean, especially when your job is hey, 0:45:15.880 --> 0:45:18.640 should I invest in this, and it's like, well, you 0:45:18.800 --> 0:45:21.800 maybe should, because I I gotta get you the company. 0:45:22.320 --> 0:45:24.120 I got to make sure the company. Fuck that, I 0:45:24.239 --> 0:45:26.879 I don't know. This is the thing though, gets back 0:45:26.880 --> 0:45:28.880 to my wife feeling about the stock market. It's like 0:45:29.280 --> 0:45:33.040 that feels rigged. It feels like you've got analysts who 0:45:33.080 --> 0:45:36.279 go on CNBC Bloomberg and I'm sure people will say, 0:45:36.320 --> 0:45:40.040 oh Bloomberg, real traders use the terminal whatever. But it's 0:45:40.120 --> 0:45:43.279 like the growth of retail investors is what makes this 0:45:43.400 --> 0:45:46.319 dangerous to me, The fact that it's the easiest time 0:45:46.440 --> 0:45:49.239 ever to invest in stocks. If I felt like buying 0:45:49.280 --> 0:45:50.680 a stock right now, I could do so in a 0:45:50.719 --> 0:45:54.399 few taps. If that's the case, having or that should 0:45:54.400 --> 0:45:58.480 be the disclosure. Here's a good centrist path. I think 0:45:58.520 --> 0:46:02.319 that they should have to write down reintroduction they've made. Oh, 0:46:02.440 --> 0:46:05.120 they should say every time every time they've introduced a 0:46:05.160 --> 0:46:06.799 hedge fund, and they don't even need to name them. 0:46:07.080 --> 0:46:10.120 There's these say made introduction on this date. That way 0:46:10.200 --> 0:46:12.520 we could see because I bet there'd be a lot 0:46:12.560 --> 0:46:12.799 of them. 0:46:13.760 --> 0:46:16.920 Also, I'm getting all new ideas for Foyer requests. 0:46:17.960 --> 0:46:19.759 Not that they would be not that I had many 0:46:19.840 --> 0:46:21.920 who actually fall into that at all, because it's all 0:46:22.000 --> 0:46:24.480 private sector. But that's, you know, like, but I'm just 0:46:24.560 --> 0:46:27.240 I'm just getting ideas. I'm just getting ideas again, totally different. 0:46:27.280 --> 0:46:30.040 But but this is the thing what good journalism is 0:46:30.120 --> 0:46:34.160 because it's like, these messy little lines between informations are 0:46:34.239 --> 0:46:37.680 not disclosed exactly. It wouldn't be as big a deal 0:46:37.880 --> 0:46:41.800 if they disclose this stuff. But also the term analyst 0:46:41.960 --> 0:46:47.520 is used very vaguely these days, totally confusing people. Citriny 0:46:47.600 --> 0:46:50.600 research for example, that. 0:46:50.800 --> 0:46:53.200 People who are for example, again get to the heart 0:46:53.239 --> 0:46:55.239 of people who are like held to an industry reg 0:46:55.520 --> 0:46:58.120 you know, regulated industry standard that like is very like 0:46:58.480 --> 0:47:03.480 closely held, closely watch versus not. That's a perfect yeah, 0:47:03.640 --> 0:47:04.360 perfect example. 0:47:04.560 --> 0:47:06.279 All Right, I think we're gonna wrap it there. We've 0:47:06.280 --> 0:47:07.080 had a great time. 0:47:07.239 --> 0:47:10.239 Where can we find you two, I'm on x at 0:47:10.400 --> 0:47:13.360 Nick Dever Underscore, or you can check out my newly 0:47:13.480 --> 0:47:18.759 launched website Nicked and sorry, don't cancel the ed I 0:47:18.800 --> 0:47:25.080 can't believe you outed me at the end or Barons 0:47:25.120 --> 0:47:25.480 dot com. 0:47:25.680 --> 0:47:27.359 Yes, you can find me on Barons dot com. 0:47:27.840 --> 0:47:30.320 All right, everyone, you can find me of course, where's 0:47:30.360 --> 0:47:32.760 your ed dot at Better offline dot com. This podcast 0:47:32.800 --> 0:47:34.879 that you're already listening to you love them one log 0:47:34.960 --> 0:47:46.000 later in the week. Thank you all, Thank you, thank 0:47:46.000 --> 0:47:47.360 you for listening to Better Offline. 0:47:47.640 --> 0:47:50.040 The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song 0:47:50.120 --> 0:47:52.759 is Matasowski. You can check out more of his music 0:47:52.800 --> 0:47:56.279 and audio projects at Matasowski dot com, M A T 0:47:56.440 --> 0:47:59.920 T O, S O W S k I dot com. 0:48:00.840 --> 0:48:03.080 You can email me at easy at better offline dot 0:48:03.160 --> 0:48:05.400 com or visit better offline dot com to find more 0:48:05.440 --> 0:48:08.759 podcast links and of course my newsletter. I also really 0:48:08.840 --> 0:48:11.040 recommend you go to chat dot Where's youread dot at 0:48:11.160 --> 0:48:13.560 to visit the discord, and go to our slash. 0:48:13.360 --> 0:48:16.400 Better Offline to check out I'll Reddit. Thank you so 0:48:16.600 --> 0:48:20.000 much for listening. Better Offline is a production of cool 0:48:20.080 --> 0:48:20.600 Zone Media. 0:48:20.800 --> 0:48:23.640 For more from cool Zone Media, visit our website cool 0:48:23.680 --> 0:48:27.040 Zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 0:48:27.120 --> 0:48:29.480 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.