1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 10 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 3: Stocks trading their record highs once again after Friday's AI pullback, 11 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 3: Sarah Hunt of Alpine Saxon Woods, writing. 12 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 4: We think this illustrates a level of. 13 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 3: Concern from investors that there is too much spending on 14 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 3: the horizon and not enough cash flow to fund it. 15 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 3: Sarah joins us now for more, Sarah, wonderful to see you. 16 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:52,480 Speaker 3: Thank you for being here. 17 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 4: Good morning. It's great to be here. So is it 18 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 4: enough fear? 19 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 3: Is it enough skepticism to make you actually interested in 20 00:00:57,920 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 3: AI once again? 21 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 4: Or does it need to go a little bit further. 22 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 5: Well, it certainly seemed like enough last week. I mean 23 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:04,839 Speaker 5: there were some big moves last week, and I don't 24 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 5: think the market. I mean, you look at Broadcom's earnings 25 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 5: and the numbers themselves were very good. It's back to 26 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,199 Speaker 5: the expectations problem and the second derivative problem which Cameron 27 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 5: just mentioned, which is what happens when you're still spending 28 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 5: a lot of money, but you're not spending it quite 29 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 5: as fast as you were. And the more you spend, 30 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 5: the bigger that the problem of large numbers comes in. 31 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 5: And can I go ten percent on every ten percent 32 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 5: or twenty percent every year every year? And I think 33 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 5: that's an issue. And now people are starting to question 34 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 5: where is that money coming from? And it wasn't that 35 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 5: question didn't happen in the beginning. And you've got some 36 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 5: real issues with companies that used to be cash rich 37 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 5: now getting more sset heavy. And I think that that's 38 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 5: a little bit an absorption issue for investors right now. 39 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 3: But have we gone a little too far with this 40 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 3: with the idea that Microsoft and Google really are going 41 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 3: to face some sort of solvency risk or some sort 42 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 3: of serious existential question because they're borrowing a bit from 43 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 3: the bond market, right I mean, have we sort of 44 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 3: thrown the baby out with the bathwater, to use John 45 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 3: Soulfus's term. Given the fact that people seem skeptical more 46 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 3: broadly of the promise that they embraced two weeks ago. 47 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 5: I think that that is just indicative of what we've 48 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 5: been living with for the last several years. Out of 49 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 5: the pandemic, which is narrative ships every day, and yes, 50 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 5: the pessimism gets wildly bad, and then it gets wildly 51 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 5: fantastic again. And this is why I wouldn't say that 52 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 5: this is a moment where you have to go, oh 53 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 5: my goodness, we have to change everything, but you have 54 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 5: to think about what who else might benefit and how 55 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 5: that's going to go. And I actually think that even 56 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 5: the story about the CDs for Oracle, I think that's 57 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 5: much more about hedging the stock than it is about 58 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 5: actually thinking that Oracle's not going to pay its spons 59 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 5: back in the end. So I think a lot of 60 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 5: this is the mechanics of how that spend is going 61 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 5: to come about. And I don't think it's a really 62 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 5: challenging the fact that money's going to get spent. 63 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 1: I want to say that group think is great, but 64 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 1: I want to pick up on what you just said there, 65 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 1: which is we have all of these narrative shifts, doling narratives. 66 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 1: What does that say to you just about conviction investors, 67 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: conviction in this not not just this trade, but in 68 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: the prospect's. 69 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 5: FAYI generally it is difficult to have because it's hard. 70 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 5: I mean, it's the conviction that is going to be 71 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 5: a big thing. It's going to make a lot of changes. 72 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 5: I think hasn't changed. What those changes are going to be, 73 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:07,799 Speaker 5: who is going to benefit from those changes, and how 74 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 5: fast they're going to be implemented seems to be a 75 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 5: big part of the current concern. 76 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 4: It was easier to say at the. 77 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 5: Beginning of the year, we see a ton of expending 78 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 5: on infrastructure. There's still going to be a ton of 79 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 5: spending on infrastructure. But now that that's getting questioned, is 80 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 5: that the peak of infrastructure spend discussion? Now do we 81 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 5: have to look at use cases and who's using it 82 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 5: and how they're using it, and is this going to 83 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 5: improve margins? Because in the end, that's what it all 84 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 5: comes down to. Is it going to make people more money? 85 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 5: Because if it isn't, then it isn't going to raise earnings. 86 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 5: Then it's less exciting than if it is going to 87 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 5: raise earn. 88 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: No, it's December. I'm in retrospective mood. Perhaps you are 89 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: as well. You mentioned that question wasn't being asked at 90 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: the beginning, which was hou is all this going to 91 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: be paid for? It's going to be cash? Is it 92 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: going to be dead? What do you make of that 93 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: in hindsight now, the fact that people weren't wrestling with 94 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 1: those questions to begin with. 95 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 5: I think with every big investing enthusiasm, there is a 96 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 5: willingness to suspend belief about whether or not and how 97 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 5: things have to happen to get to the point where 98 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 5: everyone's excited about And I think that it doesn't mean 99 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 5: that we won't suspend that disbelief again. Right, So, there's 100 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 5: going to be some technological changes. I don't see how 101 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 5: you get the molecules and the electrons to as many 102 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 5: data centers as we have, so I think that there 103 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 5: will be changes, and those changes are going to occur 104 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 5: in ways that are right now difficult to parse, so 105 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 5: you don't know who's going to win and who's going 106 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 5: to lose. 107 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: There. 108 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 5: I think it was very clear at the infrastructure beginning 109 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 5: who is the winners, and now it's like, Okay, who's 110 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 5: going to win now? And are the winners really over 111 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 5: or is that just something that isn't going to grow as. 112 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 3: Found you get the conversation of the weekend was you 113 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 3: almost need bubbles to fuel technological advancement. I mean, I 114 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 3: know that that sounds really strange and perverse, but there 115 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 3: is a sort of element of you need thatcham to 116 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,160 Speaker 3: finance absolutely everything. Is there sort of this feeling that 117 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 3: you need to see the broadening out in the trade, 118 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 3: the idea that other companies benefit from AI to keep 119 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 3: the am machine chugging, right, that in order for people 120 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 3: to justify valuations where they are in the big tech giants, 121 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 3: you need to see participation on a broader scale. 122 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 5: I think you absolutely need to see that participation. And 123 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 5: I think that that was a question even earlier in 124 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 5: this year, in the beginning at the end of last year, 125 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 5: which was who's going to use this? And then Walmart 126 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 5: came out and said a few things about how it 127 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 5: was helpful for margins, and other companies came out and said, yes, 128 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 5: we can use it this way and it's going to 129 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 5: be and that sort of solved the short term problem, 130 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 5: but longer term that has to broaden out, and that 131 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 5: has to be This is also the question about small caps. 132 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 5: Can they use this to make some margin improvements because 133 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 5: the small cap earnings revolution was supposed to happen two 134 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 5: years ago and then last year and then this year, 135 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 5: and is that. 136 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 4: Really going to come through? 137 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 5: And I think all of those things are very important 138 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 5: as we go forward, and where valuations are right now, 139 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 5: it's even more important. 140 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 3: This is where the economy starts to matter again. This 141 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: is where, all of a sudden, when we were talking 142 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 3: about how anything related to AI could be at its 143 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 3: own universe and the economy could keep sort of dragging 144 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,720 Speaker 3: along and basically being in a recession if it weren't 145 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,839 Speaker 3: for that AI investment. At what point can you see 146 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 3: this expansion, this broadening out unless you see economic data 147 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:48,040 Speaker 3: like what we're going to be getting this week really 148 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 3: pick up. 149 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 5: It's interesting because I think that the government shutdown has 150 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 5: not only made the data that's current difficult to see 151 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 5: what happened just recently, but it also may have shifted 152 00:05:58,320 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 5: some activity into next year. 153 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 4: So it's going to be interesting to see that. 154 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 5: You do have to see an economy that keeps jogging 155 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 5: along if it doesn't, you're going to have a problem. 156 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 5: There's no question that that's going to be an issue. 157 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 5: That's an issue for earnings, earnings lead evaluations, and that's 158 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 5: the circle that investors are looking at. 159 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: Speaking of circles, let's talk about circular investment and your 160 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: sort of thoughts on that right now. I mean, we 161 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:19,839 Speaker 1: can't have this conversation about it, i AI without going 162 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: back to that. And I'm curious how worriesome that is 163 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: to you. Have you been sufficient have your worries been 164 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 1: significantly or sufficiently assuaged by these companies saying that it's 165 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: not a big deal. 166 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 5: I'm not sure that I can say one way or 167 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 5: the other it's definitely not a big deal or it's 168 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 5: a huge big deal. I know that in two thousand 169 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 5: there were a lot of issues with vendor financing. It 170 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 5: was quite simple, right that companies were selling. 171 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 1: Stuff that we say circular deals and vendor financing are 172 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: the same thing. 173 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 5: I don't think that you can because I think that 174 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 5: there are some some of the players in that circle 175 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 5: have much more cash than they did before. So last 176 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 5: time it was vendors financing who didn't have the cash 177 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 5: to companies who didn't have the cash. Now, there is 178 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:56,679 Speaker 5: cash in the mix, and there's quite a bit of cash. 179 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 5: And that's where you're seeing the have and have nots 180 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 5: on the tech side of who's as rich and who's 181 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 5: not and who are people concerned about whether or not 182 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,279 Speaker 5: they're going to raise money or not. Again, I don't 183 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 5: think the Oracle anyone's concerned that it's going to go bankrupt. 184 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 5: But I think that there are concerns about overburdening balance 185 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 5: sheets right now. 186 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: Lisa brought us to the economy, let me go back 187 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 1: to that sort of to pull us away from that. 188 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: They're just remote. But I'm curious, how do you think 189 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: about growth in the year ahead. Are you, to borrow 190 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: a phrase from competers, you're saying not saying when about it? 191 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: Or are you feeling like prospects are good, things are 192 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 1: going in the right direction. 193 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 5: I think it's tough because the K shaped economy is 194 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 5: a real thing that people who are spending the most 195 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 5: money are the people who have the most money. The 196 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 5: lower end consumer is not doing well. A lot of 197 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 5: the companies that track that are not doing well, and 198 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 5: I think it's going to be that's really a question. Now, 199 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 5: how much have we owed overstated jobs. Right, So in 200 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 5: Poll's conference he talked about some of those overstatements and 201 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 5: maybe instead of generating jobs, we're losing jobs every month. 202 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 5: How much is that really occurring? What can we see 203 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 5: and what do wages look like? Because all of those 204 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 5: things matter. It's great that the high end can spend, 205 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 5: but you really need for the full economy to chug 206 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,119 Speaker 5: a long you need broader participation. 207 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 3: Which is the reason why everyone's watching and hoping for 208 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 3: this broader participation in the equity space. Sarah Hunt of 209 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 3: Alpine Saxon Woods is with us for the hour. 210 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 2: And stay with us. Mult Blomberg Surveillance coming up off 211 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 2: to this. 212 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 3: Here's the latest President Trump telling the Wall Street Journal 213 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 3: he's unsure his economic policies will lead to midterm wins. 214 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,720 Speaker 3: An NBC News poll showing the president's approval rating down 215 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 3: to forty two percent. Is economic concerns way on Americans. 216 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 3: Henrietta Treys of Veta Partners joins us now for more. Henriette, 217 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,199 Speaker 3: how do you sort of view this interview in the 218 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,559 Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal, in particular with President Trump, where he's 219 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 3: saying that people just haven't felt the ramifications or the 220 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 3: benefits from some of his policies. Will that actually make 221 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 3: any headway early twenty twenty six. 222 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's absolutely true. 223 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 7: The one big beautiful bill went into effect immediately for corporations. Indeed, 224 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 7: we've seen that corporate tax revenue has dropped by about 225 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 7: a third into federal coffers this year. 226 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 6: That's because of. 227 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,319 Speaker 7: The tax preferences that went out very quickly after they 228 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 7: passed that bill on the corporate side. But the individual 229 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 7: side is back end loaded and starts in the new 230 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 7: year when the tax filing season starts. So when you 231 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 7: think about the odds of a reconciliation bill two point 232 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 7: zero for example, or the two thousand dollars tire freebate 233 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:22,679 Speaker 7: checks for example, that requires another Act of Congress. And 234 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 7: as far as the White House is thinking about it, 235 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 7: and indeed, when I talk to Republican staff on the 236 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 7: House and Senate side, they're saying, you know, we already 237 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 7: did the individual tax cuts, you just haven't seen them yet. 238 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 7: So when Kevin has it comes out and says twenty 239 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 7: twenty six is going to be a boon year for 240 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 7: the consumer and individuals, it's because the tax preferences that 241 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 7: hit the individual side of the docket. 242 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 6: Really start in the new year. 243 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 7: So if you are really looking forward to the salt 244 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 7: deduction that's coming for you, there's a really small segment 245 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 7: of the economy that's on the no taxes on tips, 246 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 7: no taxes on overtime piece that all starts in the 247 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 7: new year, and they're hoping that that's going to be 248 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 7: enough to overcome the continued hit of tariffs, the continued 249 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 7: negative narrative around affordability and the high cost of living, housing, 250 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 7: healthcare going up by one thousand dollars, etc. 251 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,079 Speaker 1: We'll see, henriettas you talked to staffers on the hill, 252 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 1: I'm curious what they want this president to be doing. 253 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: So you lay out very clearly sort of the benefits 254 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 1: that will be very evident imagined to the American public 255 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:21,719 Speaker 1: here come in the new year. What do they make 256 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: of his emphasis on immigration, on foreign policy, him not 257 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: talking about affordability. What would they like him to be 258 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 1: doing more, and what's the reaction to him not doing 259 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 1: more on that front. 260 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 7: It's a real mixed bag with the same answer. Get 261 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 7: President Trump on the campaign trail, and for Republicans, they 262 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 7: really want to see that because the majority of the 263 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 7: new voter turnout of the last decade of sort of 264 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 7: the magabase. They're here for President Trump, They're not here 265 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 7: for your average run on the mill, rank and file Republican. 266 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 7: So those members really want President Trump to come to 267 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 7: their district, come on the campaign trail. You know, they 268 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:55,840 Speaker 7: would have liked to see him more in Tennessee, for example, 269 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 7: a couple of weeks ago to boost the numbers, because 270 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 7: he is a turnout generating machine, and there's a lot 271 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 7: of anxiety on the Republican side about going into a 272 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 7: midterm election cycle where the president himself, who is highly 273 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 7: popular with the Republican base and MAGA voters, is not 274 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 7: on the docket. Those voters tend to not show up 275 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 7: in a midterm, which is why you saw such as 276 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:16,359 Speaker 7: shell lacking for the Republican Conference. 277 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 6: In twenty eighteen. 278 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 7: They don't want to see a repeat of that, So 279 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 7: they really want Trump to get on the cam Hayne trail, 280 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 7: come rally their voters, and get the turnout machine. Unfortunately, 281 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 7: that's what Democrats also want, because they know that Republican 282 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 7: voters that are still the court of a President Trump 283 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 7: are more likely to stay home. And the majority of 284 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 7: Americans now have a negative view of the Republican Party's 285 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 7: handling of the state of the economy, inflation, prices, housing, 286 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 7: and healthcare, and those are the top five issues of 287 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 7: voters going into the midterm cycle. So Democrats similarly want 288 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 7: President Trump to be. 289 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 6: Front and center. 290 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 7: So it's really a tough road to hoe for the 291 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 7: Republican conference and for President Trump in particular. He's got 292 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 7: to get out there. He's got to talk about affordability. 293 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 7: But the more he talks about it, the more health Democrats. 294 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 7: So it's sort of a catch twenty two. 295 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 4: Good morning, Henrietta. So what of all those things. 296 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 5: That you mentioned, it seems to me that one of 297 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 5: the most important things to try to nail down right 298 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 5: now is healthcare because you can't really change a rise 299 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 5: in price levels. 300 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 4: Whenever you do about further. 301 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 5: Height doesn't matter as much as changing what's going to 302 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 5: happen now with those subsidies. And this is a train 303 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:22,679 Speaker 5: wreck that's been coming and pushed off and pushed off 304 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 5: and pushed off. Is there any do you think that 305 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 5: they can get something done in a timeframe that's going 306 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 5: to be meaningful? And do you think that there's enough 307 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 5: bipartisan anything, because everybody is going to be affected by this. 308 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 4: How does that look in your opinion? 309 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm not shy about making projections. There's no chance 310 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 7: that they fix Obamacare before the end of the year, 311 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 7: so we're going off the cliff. To put it into perspective, 312 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 7: that's twenty two million people that are going to be hit. 313 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 6: Four million people will lose their insurance. 314 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 7: If you're sixty years and older, your premiums are going 315 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 7: up by almost one thousand dollars in the new year. 316 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 6: That's going to happen. 317 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 7: There is this period of time between January fifth and 318 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 7: January thirtieth where they could find a solution. 319 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 6: Our odds are pretty slim, my colleagues. 320 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 7: Spenser Proman is our healthcare expert, and he's now down 321 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 7: to twenty five percent that we get any two year, 322 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 7: one year extension. 323 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:12,079 Speaker 6: Of the ACA subsidies. 324 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:14,439 Speaker 7: And you can hear it from Republicans in the United 325 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 7: States Senate who saw this train wreck coming, as you 326 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 7: rightly point. 327 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 6: Out, and consider this a subsidy that needs to expire. 328 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 7: We have a thirty eight trillion dollar debt load in 329 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 7: the United States. Let's cut this and make sure that 330 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 7: it is not extended. Unfortunately, when American consumers look at 331 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 7: Republicans speak to the healthcare issue. 332 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 6: We're now on y're sixteen of not having an alternative 333 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 6: to Obamacare, so that leads to an erosion of trust. 334 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 7: Within voters of Democrats and Republicans alike around the entire 335 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 7: concept of healthcare. For the Republican conference, i'mer speaker Bayner 336 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 7: had the best quote the other day. He basically said, 337 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 7: I've been in all these meetings with Republicans for decade now, 338 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 7: and we've never all been on the same page. And 339 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:57,679 Speaker 7: so as long as that's the case, you're not going 340 00:13:57,720 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 7: to see a fix, then we'll go into the year 341 00:13:59,520 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 7: with that one. 342 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:04,079 Speaker 2: Stay with us. Mulblomberg surveillance coming up after. 343 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 3: This, Poojaree Room of Barclays writing we expect a non 344 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 3: farm payroll and employment flat in October and up fifty k. 345 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 4: In November, providing further evidence. 346 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 3: That the labor market is not is slowing but not breaking. 347 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 3: Poo just realm of Barclays joining us now, Pooja, great 348 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 3: to see you, Thank you so much for being with USKS. 349 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 3: So just looking at slowing but not breaking. What's the 350 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 3: difference between the two. How narrow is the gap between 351 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 3: slow and before and between broken. 352 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's a great question. 353 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 8: I think we're getting close to the point where people, 354 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 8: ourselves included, are seeing risks clearly to the downside. But 355 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 8: in terms of breaking that is a world where you 356 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 8: expect labor markets slack to shoot up, you know, pick 357 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 8: up very rapidly, and that's not something we're seeing either 358 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 8: in the official day or in some of the other statistics, 359 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 8: like you know, think about job openings and the separations 360 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 8: rate there or jobless claims data. So it is a 361 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 8: labor market which for a while now has been stuck. 362 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 8: You know, we're not hiring, but we're not firing as much, 363 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 8: so there's very little dynamason risks, sure of the downside, 364 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 8: but we still think we're. 365 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 4: Not at that point where we're ready to fall off 366 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 4: the cliff. 367 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 3: Well, I guess I'm wondering if we're at an inflection 368 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 3: point of sorts, or maybe we've been grinding along. We 369 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 3: could be heading toward an inflection point. Why wouldn't it 370 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 3: be to the upside, Because we have seen smaller businesses 371 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 3: really pull back and hiring. The hiring has been concentrated 372 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 3: in the larger companies. If they get some stimulus if 373 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 3: there is these rate cuts that kind of start percolating 374 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 3: through the economy, why wouldn't we see a pickup in 375 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 3: hiring rather than sort of the other way around. 376 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 8: That's a great question, and I think that's a very 377 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 8: feasible scenario to keep in mind, just given you know, 378 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 8: we are quite constructive about growth into twenty twenty six. 379 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 8: We're seeing a lot of positive impulses that could keep 380 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 8: the economy highly support and in that world, yes, you 381 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 8: could have a labor market that actually stabilizes. In fact, 382 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 8: our own forecast, official forecast has the labor market looking 383 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 8: quite resilient in twenty twenty six, and we have the 384 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 8: unemployment rate coming down. So I think we really subscribe 385 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 8: to that view that there is a world where the 386 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 8: labor market stabilizes and eventually starts to look better. But 387 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 8: given where we are now, I think it's reasonable to 388 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 8: also see that risks could very well be to the downside. 389 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 8: It would take very little to push the labor market 390 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 8: in the opposite direction. 391 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: I'm curious how you think about the legacy of what 392 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 1: we have been through here with this government shut down, 393 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 1: the delay of data that we hadn't seen before, and 394 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: all the while there was this conversation about what might 395 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: be a decent substitute for the data that we weren't 396 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 1: getting from the Labor Department. How could we get as 397 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: good as sense as we could about the state of 398 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: the labor market life not having that data. Now that 399 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: we're beyond it, I'm curious of what we've learned about 400 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: how good a sense we have of the jobs market 401 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: in this country. We've heard from the Fed share suggesting 402 00:16:57,760 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: perhaps are more fundamental problems with the way that these 403 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: numbers are are collected and counted. How are you thinking 404 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 1: about what we've been through? 405 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 8: Absolutely so, I would say this that the government shut 406 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 8: down basically brought to the forefront the fact that we 407 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 8: are highly, highly reliant on official statistics, and there's a 408 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 8: good reason why. You know, we have very talented statisticians 409 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 8: who've been doing it the right way for a very 410 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 8: long time. But at the same time, I think it 411 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 8: also exposed the wonderabilities of suddenly not having these data, 412 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 8: or now we're in a scenario where the data could 413 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 8: be clouded in some sense. Right to answer your question, 414 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 8: we have looked at a dashboard of indicators which are 415 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 8: quite useful, and our reasonable alternatives to get a gauge 416 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 8: where the economy is headed. And you know these come 417 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 8: in different shapes and forms. You've got job openings data, 418 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 8: you've got job postings, some of them about hiring, so 419 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 8: it gives you a decent picture of where things are. 420 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 8: But we still don't think those are enough to substitute 421 00:17:58,440 --> 00:17:59,640 Speaker 8: the official statistics. 422 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 1: I suspectedly it's going to ask my inflation am before 423 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 1: we get there. Let me just ask you that the 424 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: FED speak the mony. I'm sorry that Mike was mentioning 425 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:08,439 Speaker 1: all that we're going to hear from and I'm curious, 426 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: what are you listening for? In specific, we've talked a 427 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: lot about the silent of sense, the quietest sense that 428 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 1: happened at that meeting. What are we likely to learn 429 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 1: from kind of pan and believe speakers who are going 430 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,360 Speaker 1: to be giving remarks and the interviews over the course 431 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 1: of the week. 432 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,199 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think the one thing that stood out in 433 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:27,640 Speaker 8: the December FO and C meeting is just how divergent 434 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 8: views are within the committee. I mean, if you just 435 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 8: look at even the dot plot for example, in twenty 436 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 8: twenty six, seven participants felt that it's appropriate to whold 437 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 8: rate steady where they are now, so I think going 438 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 8: into this week and also just you know, beyond this week, 439 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 8: we want to get a sense of who's thinking how 440 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 8: For example, we did hear from Goolsby that his descent 441 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 8: was to some part tied to the fact that he 442 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,199 Speaker 8: didn't have enough data to go by, right, And so 443 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 8: that gives you some insight into I guess what he's 444 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 8: looking for. And you know, we're likely to get similar 445 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 8: insights from others, and I'm sure like a lot of 446 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 8: other FED watches, we will be trying to you know, 447 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 8: we're trying to place them on the dove hog lineup 448 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 8: to see exactly where their minds are at and to 449 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 8: go to give us a sense really of what the 450 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 8: reaction function is for each of these participants. 451 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 3: Over the weekend, San Francisco FED president Mary Daily put 452 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:20,640 Speaker 3: out a blog post and she was talking about why 453 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 3: she supported cutting rates the last meeting, and she talked 454 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 3: about how, yes, it was a very difficult decision because 455 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 3: there is this dual mandate that's very much in conflict. 456 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 4: She was talking about inflation. 457 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 3: Yes, I always got to talk about it and how 458 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:35,160 Speaker 3: it has been really punitive for these families. But she said, 459 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 3: how you get down to two percent matters because if 460 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 3: you get there too quickly, you break the labor market, 461 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 3: and then you've got families grappling with both above average 462 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,360 Speaker 3: inflation and potential job losses. Do you think that there 463 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 3: is this theory right now presiding over the FED to 464 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:51,880 Speaker 3: run the economy a bit hot, especially at a time 465 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 3: of technological transition, with artificial intelligence posing some existential questions 466 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 3: around the labor market, in order to avoid some sort 467 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 3: of labor markets scarring at the expense of inflation knocketting 468 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,439 Speaker 3: down to two percent any time in the near future. 469 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 8: Well, I okay, Well, this is what I think stood 470 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 8: out to me in the December presser. There seems to 471 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 8: be this view in the FED that inflation is really 472 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,640 Speaker 8: not a problem right now. In fact, Chair Powell's own 473 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,919 Speaker 8: comments on inflation is he's quite sanguine about it. I 474 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 8: think in some part of the press that he did 475 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 8: think that inflation, you strip it out of all the 476 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 8: tariff effects, is somewhere in the low twos. Then he 477 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 8: mentioned something about productivity also likely to support the economy. 478 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:35,719 Speaker 8: So if you sort of put all those views together, 479 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 8: I think there is this view out there in among 480 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 8: the FED participants that inflation is perhaps not a problem 481 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 8: to be concerned about, and what they need to be 482 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 8: concerned about right now is the labor market. That's perhaps 483 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 8: what you know Mary Daily is also subscribing to. 484 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 4: In some sense. 485 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 8: My own take is I think it's a little too 486 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,880 Speaker 8: premature to think that inflation is going to take care 487 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 8: of itself. You know, we at Barclay's have been saying 488 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,239 Speaker 8: for a while that we are yet to see the 489 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 8: full effects of tariffs on the inflation data. And sure, 490 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,439 Speaker 8: while it may be a one time price shock, I 491 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 8: think it's a little too early to declare victory on 492 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 8: inflation yet. 493 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 2: Stay with US multile imperg surveillance coming up after this. 494 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 3: Keith Lerder of Truest writing, we are still positive tech 495 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 3: longer term, but in the near term there is a 496 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,640 Speaker 3: lack of a catalyst for the sector, so investors will 497 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:35,359 Speaker 3: need to be patient. 498 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 4: Investors known for their patients. 499 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 3: Keith joins us. Now, okay, thank you so much for 500 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 3: being with us. I just want to start there. I mean, 501 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 3: do you think that this so off that we've seen 502 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 3: or on a performance I should say probably putting it 503 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 3: more fairly. In the tech sector is something that can 504 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 3: persist for a longer period of time or is this 505 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 3: sort of like an end of the year melt off 506 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 3: given how much it's been outperforming. 507 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:57,199 Speaker 9: Yeah, well for us, great to be with you. 508 00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 10: I didn't realize it was the actually last full trading 509 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 10: week of the years, so that's exciting in some ways. 510 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 10: So to your points, specifically at LISA, I still think 511 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 10: tech is long term leadership. 512 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 9: But to your point, we. 513 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 10: Went up off the loads about seventy percent versus thirty 514 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 10: five percent for the S and P five hundred, and 515 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:17,880 Speaker 10: now you get all these different questions as well. 516 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 9: So I just think it's a point. 517 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 10: Where you know that we have to kind of rebuild 518 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 10: that wall of warrior, which we're doing. But at the 519 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 10: end of the day, the earnings momentum for the tech 520 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 10: sector is still the strongest one out there. So I 521 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 10: think in the air term, I think the challenge is 522 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 10: what is the catalyst to move this up, Because you know, 523 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 10: we just went through an earning season. People are focused 524 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 10: on obviously Oracle and video comes out with some news 525 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 10: about some more chip selling to China, it's not moving it. 526 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 10: So I think it's just maybe a digestion phase, and 527 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 10: I think, you know, the next year at some point, 528 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 10: maybe that's three months or six months from now, we'll 529 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 10: see money rotate back into it. And when we look 530 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 10: historically at bull markets, maybe my final point here is 531 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 10: the leadership of a bull market tends to endoor towards 532 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 10: the end, notwithstanding periodic you know, pull and rotations. We're 533 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 10: seeing one of those rotations right now on this kind 534 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 10: of boarding theme, and I think that boarding theme, at 535 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 10: least in their term, has a bit more to go. 536 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 3: You found somewhat skeptical of it long term. Is that correct, Keith, 537 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 3: that this broadening theme maybe is a short term lip 538 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 3: but not necessarily a twenty twenty six full year trend. 539 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:16,440 Speaker 7: No. 540 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 10: I think, you know, Lisa, if we were here a 541 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 10: year ago, I think the theme was very similar about 542 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 10: this boarding theme. It didn't work out, but I know 543 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 10: I do think next year there's more of a reason 544 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,159 Speaker 10: that we can see more broading. So I think a 545 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,239 Speaker 10: lot of times people think about it's tech or X 546 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,439 Speaker 10: and of you it can be both, especially as we 547 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 10: have these sharp rotations. But you know, the good news, 548 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 10: I think as we think about the equal weight index, 549 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 10: were we came into this year around the seventeen multiple 550 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 10: We're ending the year around the seventeen multiple and it's 551 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 10: been mostly earnest with The key for next year is 552 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 10: is profit margin and do we see the adoption and 553 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 10: the profit margins dot to expand for these four ninety 554 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,199 Speaker 10: three But I think listen to their term. Were all 555 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 10: seeing some positive action. We had industrials breakout last week. 556 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 10: The equ Weight index just made a fifty two week high. 557 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:00,200 Speaker 9: Here's an interest. 558 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,360 Speaker 10: Since that, guys, you know, the EQUAT index is only 559 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 10: up about four percent since the November peak right after 560 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 10: the election, so almost more than a year we'll only 561 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 10: have four percent. 562 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 9: So no, I think it has further to go. I 563 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 9: just think it's both not either or there's. 564 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 1: A tendency to have this kind of monomoniacal focus on 565 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 1: the big tech names, the Magnificent seven and the like. 566 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: Do you foresee us you look into your crystal ball 567 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 1: more eagerness to look overseas in the year ahead. Of course, 568 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 1: it's done. Markets overseas have done extremely well this year 569 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: in many cases, Are you looking more to Europe for 570 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: instance in twenty twenty six? 571 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:35,639 Speaker 10: I don't know that we're looking more, but it's kind 572 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 10: of a similar story when we look around the globe. 573 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 10: I just checked this morning, ninety eight percent of the 574 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 10: markets we tract more than forty countries around the globe, 575 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 10: they were in up trends, defined as above their tunia 576 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 10: day moving averages. 577 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,439 Speaker 9: So it's kind of that similar story we just had. 578 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 9: It's like either or no. Both. 579 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 10: We still have a tilt towards the US because that's 580 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 10: where the innovation and earnings are there. And let's you know, 581 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,040 Speaker 10: if we think about the last year, the US underperformed, 582 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 10: but that was after a you know, in the prior year, 583 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 10: the US had outperformed by the most since the nineties 584 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 10: in twenty twenty four, so we had a bit of 585 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 10: mean version and almost all the increase in international was 586 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,239 Speaker 10: pevaluation that earnings and the currency side. So I think 587 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 10: as we move into next year, we had a bit 588 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 10: of a revaluation. Currency has come down to the US dollars, 589 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:20,959 Speaker 10: so I think both will do well. We're still tilting 590 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 10: towards the US on the margin. 591 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 1: We've been kind of threading this needle over the course 592 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 1: of the three hours this morning. Mike Wilson's note Mike Wilson, 593 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley right about how we are now firmly back 594 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 1: in a good as bad, bad as good regime. As 595 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 1: you look ahead to this week and the data that 596 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 1: we're going to get, how are you thinking you're in 597 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 1: agreement with mister Wilson. 598 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 9: I think the market like Scoldilocks. 599 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 10: I think we want an economy that is still you know, 600 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 10: kind of chugging along. 601 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,119 Speaker 9: We expect a modest uptick into next. 602 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 10: Year, with you know, with inflation that doesn't get out 603 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 10: of control, which we don't think it will, and interest 604 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 10: rates that remain you know, kind of in this range 605 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,919 Speaker 10: that it's been overall. So I would say on the margin, 606 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 10: you know, solid news is good news. I don't think 607 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 10: we want extreme. If it's something that's really much stronger 608 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 10: to the upside for the economy, that probably means rates 609 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 10: go up and that will hit maybe valuations. If we 610 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 10: see a real weakening in the in the labor market 611 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 10: continues and it's divergence between GDP data and the labor market, 612 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 10: I think that's problematic as well. So I think, you know, 613 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 10: we're using an analogy for our outlook, the seventhing in a stretch. 614 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 10: I think we want something kind of in the middle 615 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 10: between those two extremes. 616 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:25,879 Speaker 3: Do you think Keith that this market's fully wrapped its 617 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,640 Speaker 3: heads around the idea that we have seen the end 618 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 3: of one of the biggest global easing cycles ever outside 619 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 3: of some sort of recession. 620 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 10: You know, it's an interesting question because it hasn't really 621 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 10: come up a whole lot in conversations as I speak 622 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:39,640 Speaker 10: with investors. 623 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 9: So I think that is, you know, a potecially a risk. 624 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 10: And I think the other thing, you know, all things 625 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,280 Speaker 10: come back, All roles lead back to the ten year treasury. 626 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 10: As we think about next year, we still are positive. 627 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,080 Speaker 10: We think that the uptrend deserves the benefit of the doubt. 628 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 10: But going to your point about central banks, I mean, 629 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,679 Speaker 10: I think the key tell for next year and the 630 00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 10: risk fact that we'll be watching is the ten year, 631 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 10: which again seems relative to be contained at this point. 632 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 10: But that is a shift, and I think, just like 633 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 10: this past year, I think earnings will be the key. 634 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 9: Again. 635 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 10: We expect solid earnings and we do expect those earnings 636 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:11,920 Speaker 10: to born out as we move through twenty twenty six. 637 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 3: When you talk about earnings, this kind of leaves us 638 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 3: in the same place of yes, bonds may offer a hedge, 639 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,960 Speaker 3: but maybe you don't want that hedge In twenty twenty six, 640 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 3: maybe you want to be exposed to the equity space 641 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 3: and then on the short end of the yield curve 642 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 3: at a time of yield curve steepening. I mean, how 643 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,720 Speaker 3: do you look at that kind of interplay given the 644 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:32,360 Speaker 3: fact that people are expecting enough growth an accommodator fed 645 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 3: despite that ongoing growth and this yield curve steepening that 646 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,160 Speaker 3: we have seen really start to reassert itself. 647 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,679 Speaker 10: Yeah, So overall, heading into the year, we do have 648 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 10: a modest killed towards equity relative to fixed income. In cash, 649 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 10: we're still overweight gold as well, which. 650 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 9: We've been overweighted all year long. 651 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,399 Speaker 10: And then on the on the fixed income side, you know, 652 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,880 Speaker 10: again going back to the analogy around baseball, we still 653 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 10: look at fixed income as that consistent head kind of 654 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 10: collecting that coupon, you know, all and all over the 655 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 10: last year where the equity markets have done pretty well, 656 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,399 Speaker 10: we are having a solid year in fixed income with 657 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 10: high quality returning six seven percent. And I think as 658 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,400 Speaker 10: we think about next year, we talked about this, there's 659 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,640 Speaker 10: a lot of cross currents. There's a midterm election year, 660 00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 10: and there's a scenario where the economy is stronger than 661 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 10: expectations or there's a scenario where the labor market weekends 662 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,440 Speaker 10: further and the latter one you would actually want bonds. 663 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 10: So I think going back to diversifications, kind of a 664 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 10: simple diversification aspect, you still. 665 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 9: Want to have bonds. 666 00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 10: Are they at a modestly lower rate, Yes, but I 667 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 10: still think it makes sense. But we are peering that 668 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 10: with some exposure to gold still into the new year. 669 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,480 Speaker 1: Let's stick with the diversification. So there's this market Mason 670 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 1: rebuilding the wall of worry as you look beyond tech, 671 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 1: if you look beyond big tech telecommunications as well, where 672 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 1: do you see opportunity sector wise here in the year 673 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 1: ahead that might have been neglected in twenty twenty five. 674 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 10: Sure so where we were overweight tech and communications for 675 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 10: most of this past year and we still are again, 676 00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 10: We're still positive long term. What we've been doing is 677 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 10: making incremental changes based on this bordening theme. So you know, 678 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 10: over the recent months we added healthcare. You know, healthcare 679 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 10: is a sector where just you know, a little bit 680 00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 10: of good news can go a long way. I know 681 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 10: it's done better recently, but it's out. I'm sorry it's underperformed. 682 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 10: The S and P by over fifty percent over the 683 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 10: last three years, and that's a historic extreme. So you 684 00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 10: just get a little good news that can go along 685 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 10: a way. And we're seeing valuations attractive and some better 686 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 10: fundamentals there as well. And then just last week we 687 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 10: upgraded industrials. Industrials was a hot sector early in the year. 688 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 10: Since July, I kind of moved sideways, only up about 689 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 10: two percent. It just broke to the upside of a 690 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 10: five month trading range. And as we think about this 691 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 10: economic uptick that we envisioned and some of the benefits 692 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,720 Speaker 10: from the one big beautiful bill, like accelerated depreciation, we 693 00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 10: think that's an area that should benefit as well. 694 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 9: So again tech communications. 695 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,840 Speaker 10: Now paired with healthcare and industrials and something else, we're 696 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 10: looking closely out, not. 697 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,360 Speaker 9: Quite, not quite there to upgrade. 698 00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 10: You know, Financials with that steeper curve that Lisa mentioned early, 699 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 10: are acting very well. 700 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 701 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, an gient politics. You can watch the 702 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 2: show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am 703 00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:17,040 Speaker 2: to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 704 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and as always on the 705 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,880 Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.