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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody. Scott Bogman here for Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: to give you my favorite picks and bets for Week

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Speaker 1: six of the college football season. We went five and

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Speaker 1: five last week. I was big on the games that

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Speaker 1: I was outspoken about. I had Alabama and they won

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Speaker 1: outright in the craziest game ever. And then Oklahoma I won.

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Speaker 1: Probably shouldn't have gotten that one, but I did win

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Speaker 1: that one. There's a couple others I should have gotten

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Speaker 1: that I didn't get. So it's just the way it goes.

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Speaker 1: Ended up five and five last week, so at five

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Speaker 1: hundred last week, and it's been up and down. So

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Speaker 1: but I was happy to get those big wins. And

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Speaker 1: for you know, as a Texas fan, who's weird rooting

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Speaker 1: for Oklahoma because I had money on them, but we

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Speaker 1: got it. So if you want to tail my bets

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Speaker 1: on the app, just punching my name Bogman and it

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Speaker 1: will come up, or Bettingpros dot Com slash Bogman will

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Speaker 1: take you there. If you want to fade me, if

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Speaker 1: you want to tail me, however you do it. That

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Speaker 1: is how you see what I am on this week.

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Speaker 1: But let's get into it. I have I believe eight

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Speaker 1: picks for you against the spread and over unders, and

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Speaker 1: then six props and a couple of touchdown anytime touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I threw in there as well. So let's get into it.

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Speaker 1: Let's start on Friday night Syracuse at UNLV. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take the cues at plus six and I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: the over fifty five and a half. My initial thought

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Speaker 1: when I looked at this game was, Okay, we have

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Speaker 1: a quarterback going into a second start, it's a bigger game,

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Speaker 1: it's a Friday night. Maybe we'll take the under here.

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Speaker 1: But both these defenses have been miserable. I mean, UNLV

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Speaker 1: runs the ball at a good clip, six in the

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Speaker 1: nation in running the ball, and Syracuse was torched for

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Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty five yards against Ohio in the

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Speaker 1: opener one hundred and seventy three yards they gave up

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Speaker 1: and then loss to Stanford as well. And like I said,

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Speaker 1: UNLV six averaging two hundred and eighty three rushing yards

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Speaker 1: per game, they should be able to run on Syracuse.

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Speaker 1: Syracuse is third overall in passing yards this season passing

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Speaker 1: yards per game season, I should say, and UNLV they're

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Speaker 1: having a good season but I don't know how impressive

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Speaker 1: this resume is, which is why I'm on the Syracuse side.

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Speaker 1: Houston and Kansas, who they beat, are both one and

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Speaker 1: four and look like gigantic frauds. They had two weeks

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Speaker 1: even with their quarterback leaving right Sluca left and Hodgman

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Speaker 1: Lake Williams replaced him last week and look great. They

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Speaker 1: had two weeks to prepare for that game as well,

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Speaker 1: So I don't really buy into UNLV here. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna take the points and Syracuse on the road here,

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Speaker 1: but also this over because I don't trust either one

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Speaker 1: of these defenses to stop the other offense. Let's keep

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Speaker 1: it moving here. In Michigan State at Oregon, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go under fifty two and a half in this game.

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Speaker 1: And the reason I think this game is going to

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Speaker 1: go over is because Oregon is playing Ohio State next week.

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Speaker 1: So I know Michigan State is not impressive, not a

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Speaker 1: very good team at all, but I just don't feel

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Speaker 1: like Oregon is going to open it up in this game.

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Speaker 1: They're not gonna get tricky. They're eighty fifth in pace

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Speaker 1: of play, so I think they get a lead and

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Speaker 1: they on it and they don't open it up or

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Speaker 1: show anything because they're going to go play Ohio State

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Speaker 1: next week. So I don't think Ohio State has that luxury.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a little bit because they

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Speaker 1: play Iowa this week. But I do think that Oregon

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Speaker 1: is gonna kind of keep it at a slow pace

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Speaker 1: and you know, run the ball to salt Away victory

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Speaker 1: late and we can stay under this fifty two and

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Speaker 1: a half. And one of the more intriguing games of

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Speaker 1: the weekend Missouri at Texas A and M here, and

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Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Tigers on the road. I

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Speaker 1: know I am an Aggie's hater but as a Texas fan,

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Speaker 1: but look, I hate the Sooners too, right, And last

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Speaker 1: week I took them because I thought they could win

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Speaker 1: his money and they did so for me in this game,

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Speaker 1: it's you know, Missouri might not be the team that

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Speaker 1: we thought they were coming into this season, right, But

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Speaker 1: I don't think A and M is either, And that's

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Speaker 1: really the thing here, and the A and M is

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Speaker 1: likely to start QB Marcel Reid again. The Aggies have

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Speaker 1: won their last three games. Leakman is listed as questionable,

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Speaker 1: but if they go to Weigman, I think that offense

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Speaker 1: would be probably even worse. He has not looked good

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Speaker 1: so far. Neither of these defenses has produced sacks four

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Speaker 1: for Missouri five for An A and A and M.

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Speaker 1: But that's worse for A and M because Missouri throws

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Speaker 1: a ball over fifty percent of the time. A and

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Speaker 1: M also doesn't match up well offensively, as Missouri is

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Speaker 1: currently a top twenty rushing defense in yards per game

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Speaker 1: and also great as a top twenty five run defense

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Speaker 1: on PFF. So Missouri seems to have more pass to

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Speaker 1: victory in this game. If they get down, I think

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Speaker 1: they can pass to come back. I don't think that

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Speaker 1: that's an A and M's bag right now, So I

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Speaker 1: think maybe even the wrong team is favored here, and

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Speaker 1: we can take Missouri on the money line if you want.

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Speaker 1: But if you want those two and a half points,

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Speaker 1: I will take them. So that'll be our official pick

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Speaker 1: as Missouri plus two and a half on the road

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Speaker 1: at A and M. They get two weeks going into

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Speaker 1: this game to prepare here as well, and A M

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Speaker 1: is coming off that physical game against the Razorbacks last week.

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Speaker 1: So I like Missouri in this game. They've been playing

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Speaker 1: close games. I understand that Vandy gave them a scare

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Speaker 1: and all of that, but those are all home games.

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Speaker 1: They're comfortable, they're on the road, it's a business trip.

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Speaker 1: I can't remember who I saw point this out, but

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Speaker 1: I think since joining the SEC A and M and

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Speaker 1: their home field advantage is a little bit overrated because

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Speaker 1: they're like twenty six and twenty two against the ACC

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Speaker 1: or SEC excuse me, since moving into the SEC. So

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Speaker 1: I just don't think that home field advantage counts for

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Speaker 1: as much as we think it does in Missouri gets

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Speaker 1: the job done there this one, and this is one

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Speaker 1: like last week where I am against public opinion and

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Speaker 1: you know, it worked last week. It doesn't work every time.

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Speaker 1: But I'm going to take Old Miss coming off their

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Speaker 1: loss at Kentucky and latey eight and a half for

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Speaker 1: them going on the road at South Carolina. And I

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Speaker 1: know it's October and everyone is excited about South Carolina,

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Speaker 1: you know, in October and everything, But I think what

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Speaker 1: was lost in that Old Miss loss last week is

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Speaker 1: the fact that their defense still played very very well.

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Speaker 1: Kentucky held the ball for almost forty minutes of that game,

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Speaker 1: thirty nine thirty three in that game, and Kentucky only

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Speaker 1: managed three hundred and thirty six yards and almost twenty

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Speaker 1: percent of that came on a sixty three yard place

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Speaker 1: so and only twenty points as well. You know, that's

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Speaker 1: half a point a minute there. That's not a very

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Speaker 1: good average for Kentucky holding the ball. So even though

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Speaker 1: the offense was abysmal against Kentucky, and that could happen

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Speaker 1: as well because South Carolina's strength of their team is

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Speaker 1: on the defensive line, and we saw the ole miss

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Speaker 1: O line get worked over. But my question is is

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Speaker 1: South Carolina going to score many points? Because Leonora Sellers

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Speaker 1: was okay and he's going to play in this game,

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Speaker 1: and so it was Rocket Sanders. But they're questionable. They're

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Speaker 1: less than one hundred percent going in here. So I

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Speaker 1: think we get the bounce back from all miss And

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Speaker 1: the line right now has fluctuated. Right now you have

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Speaker 1: to lay eight and a half. Maybe that gets better

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Speaker 1: because it did drop already a half point from yesterday

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Speaker 1: when I was preparing my notes for this game. So

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Speaker 1: I like, I think they're gonna win that game by ten,

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Speaker 1: So eight and a half I will predict them to cover.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to Iowa at Ohio State, and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: take the over in this game because, like I said before,

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Speaker 1: I don't think Ohio State has the luxury that Oregon

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Speaker 1: does to not open it up, because if you play

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Speaker 1: down to Iowa, they will drag you in the mud

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Speaker 1: and beat you with experience. That's what they will do.

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Speaker 1: So you don't have that luxury to not open it

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Speaker 1: up and not play your best football against Iowa because

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Speaker 1: if you do that, they'll beat you. Michigan State, I

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Speaker 1: don't think peak Michigan State can beat you half paying

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Speaker 1: attention to Oregon. So in this game. Look, both these

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Speaker 1: teams have gone seven and one to the over this year,

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Speaker 1: and there was a little question going into this game

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Speaker 1: with Will Howard. He was dinged up last game. He's

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Speaker 1: gonna be fine though. And Iowa traditionally plays great defense,

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Speaker 1: but this season their defense is a little down, and

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Speaker 1: usually they play bad offense, and their offense is a

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Speaker 1: little up. So I think we're seeing a little bit

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Speaker 1: more of a different Iowa team than what we've seen traditionally,

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Speaker 1: Specifically from what they had last season. Iowa only put

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Speaker 1: up twenty six points once last season. They've gone over

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Speaker 1: thirty in three of their four games this season, so,

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Speaker 1: like I said, this is different. I was also giving

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Speaker 1: up big chunk plays this year, which is not something

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Speaker 1: they typically do. A seventy five yard touchdown to Noel

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Speaker 1: against Iowa State, sixty three, forty three and sixty two

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Speaker 1: yard touchdowns to Troy, and even Minnesota had a couple

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Speaker 1: big chunk plays against them. So Ohio State is not

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Speaker 1: just first an offensive roster strength, but also first in

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Speaker 1: offensive performance. And I think they do the heavy lifting

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Speaker 1: to get to this forty five and a half total.

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Speaker 1: Ohio State getting up early could lead to turnovers for

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Speaker 1: the Howkeys as well, which would set up Ohio State

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Speaker 1: with shorter fields and make it eatier easier for them

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Speaker 1: to score. So for me, I just I really like

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Speaker 1: the over in this game. I think that bar is

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Speaker 1: set too low because there are two good defenses playing here.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think this is a close game. I

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Speaker 1: think Ohio State wins going away. They haven't played anybody yet,

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Speaker 1: so it's a little dicey right. Ole Miss hadn't played

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Speaker 1: anybody and they got be by Kentucky. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that is this type of game. I think it could

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Speaker 1: be if Ohio State doesn't come to play. But like

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Speaker 1: I said, they don't have the luxury of coming in

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Speaker 1: and being in a look at spot here because if

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Speaker 1: you look at past Iowa, they will beat you. So

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Speaker 1: I don't think they'll do that. Michigan at Washington under

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Speaker 1: forty one and a half is what we're gonna do

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Speaker 1: in this game. This might be the most unrecognizable National

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Speaker 1: championship rematch following the season ever, at least that I

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Speaker 1: can remember. Washington hasn't played well in a tough game yet.

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Speaker 1: The Huskies faltered in the Apple Cup. They had over

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Speaker 1: five hundred yards against Rutgers, couldn't score. They only had

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Speaker 1: eighteen points, nineteen points with four hundred and fifty two

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Speaker 1: yards against Washington State, and they've been bad in the

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Speaker 1: kicking game. Five out of eleven field goal attempts is

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Speaker 1: all the Washington has made. So if you get into

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Speaker 1: even if you're at home, if you get into this

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Speaker 1: possession game with Michigan, which seems like a likely thing, right,

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Speaker 1: Michigan's defense has been outstand If you get into that

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Speaker 1: type of game and you can't hit field goals, where

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Speaker 1: are you scoring points? They're going to have to come

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Speaker 1: off big plays. I just don't think Michigan is going

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Speaker 1: to give up many of them. So for this game,

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Speaker 1: we know Michigan comes in as a one dimensional offense.

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Speaker 1: Alex Orgy took over and they just have no passing

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Speaker 1: attack at all, it seems right now. And Washington plays

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Speaker 1: great defense. I think if the big plays are limited

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Speaker 1: on both defensive sides in this game, then this is

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Speaker 1: going to go way under this forty one and a

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Speaker 1: half total and be a really annoying game. So it's

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Speaker 1: just about avoiding those big plays or pick sixes or

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Speaker 1: things like that, and I think both these teams will

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Speaker 1: do that, and I think we'll have a low scoring game.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to Indiana where I'm going to lay the

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Speaker 1: thirteen and a half at Northwestern, and this one is

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Speaker 1: just Indiana's dominance and the fact that Northwestern is not

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Speaker 1: a good team this year. This is a down year

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Speaker 1: by Northwestern standards. In Northwestern, it's not traditionally a very

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Speaker 1: good team. Indiana's three to one against spread against FBS opponents.

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Speaker 1: They missed FIU in Week one, getting that game by

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Speaker 1: the hook. Northwestern zero to two against P four opponents. Here.

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Speaker 1: There might be a little bit of weather in this game.

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Speaker 1: There's projected to be big wins, but that is worse

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Speaker 1: for Northwestern because if Indiana gets a lead early in,

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Speaker 1: Northwestern has to throw, which they have done. They've thrown

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Speaker 1: the ball over fifty two percent of the time so

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Speaker 1: far this season because they've been down in games. So

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Speaker 1: if you get down and you're dealing with weather and

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Speaker 1: a defense that is much better than your offense, I

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Speaker 1: just think this game is going to get real ugly,

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Speaker 1: real fast for Northwestern, even on the road. For Indiana,

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Speaker 1: I will lay the thirteen and a half and that

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Speaker 1: one got better by a half point for us. So

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Speaker 1: if you like Indiana and in that game, I would say,

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Speaker 1: maybe wait and see if it could sound to thirteen

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Speaker 1: or twelve and a half or something and we will

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Speaker 1: hit the game day night cap game. And this is

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Speaker 1: a gut feeling one, So if you don't want to

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Speaker 1: ride this one, I completely understand because this one is

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Speaker 1: all about my gut. And this one is Miami at

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Speaker 1: Cal and I'm going to say under fifty four. And

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Speaker 1: the reason I'm going to say that is, yes, I

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Speaker 1: know Miami had their scare last week. Maybe they want

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Speaker 1: to look better game days coming to town. All that

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Speaker 1: stuff I get it. But this is a road game

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Speaker 1: all the way across the country for Miami, and it's

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Speaker 1: a late start for them. I think it's ten thirty,

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Speaker 1: and you know it's a nationally televised game, so sometimes

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Speaker 1: they push those back. This might be eleven o'clock Eastern

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Speaker 1: kickoff for these kids that are looking at the bye

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Speaker 1: week coming up two. So Miami didn't really come to

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Speaker 1: play last week. I was very unimpressed with their effort level.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if we're going to get that from

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Speaker 1: them this week, but if they are there to play,

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Speaker 1: then maybe Cal doesn't score many points. And Cal has

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Speaker 1: an underrated defense always traditionally, but this year they've been

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Speaker 1: pretty solid as well. So I'm going to go the

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Speaker 1: under fifty four here. The last time I didn't listen

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Speaker 1: to my gut it was to take BYU against Kansas

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Speaker 1: State going in to provo in a night game. So

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Speaker 1: I avoided that one and it hit and I regretted it.

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Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna go ahead and go with my

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Speaker 1: gut here and say under fifty four before I get

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Speaker 1: to the props. If you are looking to up your

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Speaker 1: game in sports betting, join our exclusive sports betting discord

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Speaker 1: community at bettingpros dot com slash chat. Not only can

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Speaker 1: you connect with expert handicappers, provide free picks for NBA, NFL, MLB,

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Speaker 1: college sports player props, live betting, and more, but now

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Speaker 1: you can also participate in our weekly community picks, cast

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Speaker 1: your vote, see how your pick stack up against the experts,

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Speaker 1: and track your success. Do that today. Check it out

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash Chat. All right, let's get to

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Speaker 1: some props that I have for you guys today. Anytime touchdown,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the aforementioned Hajj Malik Williams. He

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Speaker 1: ran the ball a bunch. This is minus one thirty

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Speaker 1: five versus Syracuse. I think he can get into the

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Speaker 1: end zone. And Jeremi Smith, the wide receiver from Ohio State,

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Speaker 1: is minus one twenty. I know those are picks on

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Speaker 1: underdog and prize picks, so those are the touchdown calls

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Speaker 1: that I like this week. I have one passing yard

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Speaker 1: prop for you this week is going to be Eli Holstein,

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Speaker 1: the quarterbackup pit at North Carolina. The line on underdog

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Speaker 1: prize picks that I saw is to eighty eight and

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Speaker 1: a half. UNC is ninety fourth in passing yards allowed

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Speaker 1: they great one hundred and fourth and coverage on PFF.

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Speaker 1: Holstein has totals of three thirty six, three oh one

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Speaker 1: and three poo two against P four opponents this year.

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Speaker 1: This game has an over of sixty four and Pitts

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Speaker 1: defense is ninety four, so this might be a back

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Speaker 1: and forth passing attack game for the tar Heels and Panthers.

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Speaker 1: So I like Eli Holstein to go over to eighty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half. You can bet this up to

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Speaker 1: three twenty five plus on DK and get plus one

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Speaker 1: eighty if you want, but I will stick at that

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Speaker 1: two eighty eight and a half rushing yards. Let's go

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Speaker 1: back to my touchdown call of Hodjmalink Williams. The QB

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Speaker 1: for U and LV sixty two and a half is

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Speaker 1: his number.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: Syracuse gave up sixty seven rushing yards on only six

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Speaker 1: rushing attempts to Georgia Tech quarterback Haines King Ashton Daniels.

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Speaker 1: Syracuse had forty five Hodge Malik Williams forced eight miss

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Speaker 1: tackles in last week's game. Q's is ninety fifth in

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Speaker 1: tackle grade. They have a bunch of miss tackles this season,

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Speaker 1: specifically in the secondary so if Hodge gets to that

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Speaker 1: second third level, he might take a big one to

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Speaker 1: the house. He had seventy one designed rush yards last

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Speaker 1: week and forty eight on scrambles. I like the over

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Speaker 1: in this game, so I like these totals for Hodje

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Speaker 1: Malik Williams. Let's go to Navy. This one I didn't

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Speaker 1: see on underdog or prize pick, so you may not

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Speaker 1: be able to get it. But it's Blake Horvat the

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Speaker 1: quarterback for Navy. His line is eighty seven plus is

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Speaker 1: minus one fifteen. You can bet this all the way

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Speaker 1: up to one twenty plus they get to plus three

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Speaker 1: three twenty. I'll stick with the eighty seven. You can

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Speaker 1: combine this with something else probably and make a nice

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Speaker 1: little parlay. But if you want to go to one hundred,

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Speaker 1: that's plus one fifty at like both of those. But

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Speaker 1: in games against FBS opponents so far, Blake corbath one

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Speaker 1: two and eleven and eighty seven rushing yards. Air force

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Speaker 1: is seventy first in rushing yards allowed, they greade one

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Speaker 1: hundred and tenth maybe is good this season fifth, and

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Speaker 1: rushing yards per game ninth, and run grade fifth in

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Speaker 1: run block grade. So I really like Horvath to run

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Speaker 1: for a bunch of yards. I think air force is

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Speaker 1: fairly miserable. I think maybe he's gonna have the ball

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Speaker 1: for a lot of that game. This is at elevation.

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Speaker 1: I get it, but I don't care. Fil MafA the

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Speaker 1: running back for Clemson at Florida State. His total is

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Speaker 1: eighty six and a half. MafA held to only fifty

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Speaker 1: eight yards against Stanford. But they're so bad against the

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Speaker 1: pass that nobody has to run against Stanford. Stanford has

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Speaker 1: like a top ten rush defense right now because everybody

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Speaker 1: just passes against them. They're miserable against the pass. Florida

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Speaker 1: State is ninety six and rush yards allowed. They've given

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Speaker 1: up thirty one ten plus yard runs, which is ninth

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Speaker 1: lowest in the nation. Not a very good effort from

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Speaker 1: Florida State on the defensive side against the run this year.

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Speaker 1: Phill Moffa, I think pops a huge one and gets

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Speaker 1: most of this total in one big chunk run. But

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Speaker 1: I think eighty six is too low for him. You

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Speaker 1: can bet this one all the way up to one

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Speaker 1: twenty to get you plus three forty. I'll stick to

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Speaker 1: the eighty six. One hundred is plus one sixty don't

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Speaker 1: hate that number either. Receiving yards prop Let's go back

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Speaker 1: Jack Beck for TCU ninety one and a half yards

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Speaker 1: against Houston. Here he hit this for US last week,

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Speaker 1: and ten for one thirty one at Kansas, eight for

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Speaker 1: one sixty six at SMU, nine for two hundred against UCF,

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Speaker 1: and then six for one thirty nine at Stanford. Houston

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Speaker 1: is statistically top ten against the pass, but they played

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Speaker 1: UNLV who's one hundred and twenty fifth in passing yards

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Speaker 1: per game, Oklahoma one hundred and fourteenth, Rice eighty ninth.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati is the only good passing offense that they played

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Speaker 1: at twenty first in the Iowa state is a blow

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Speaker 1: average as twell sixty second. TCU is fourth in passing

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Speaker 1: yards per game. BETCH is also in the country in

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Speaker 1: receiving yards, So I think Betch is an easy bet here.

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Speaker 1: Ninety one and a half yards against Houston. One hundred

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Speaker 1: plus will pay you plus one fifty one, twenty will

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Speaker 1: pay you plus two to fifty five. But I did

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Speaker 1: whatever number you want to take, I think he goes over.

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Speaker 1: And the last one I have for you is Broom McCoy,

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Speaker 1: the wide receiver for Arkansas. This one is forty three

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Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. I think this total is

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Speaker 1: too low here. Forty four is minus one twenty. Tennessee

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Speaker 1: hasn't needed to pass late in games yet, and I

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Speaker 1: think this is a game that they might Arkansas on

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Speaker 1: the road, tough environment, night game. I think that Tennessee

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Speaker 1: is going to have to finally let Nico really sling it,

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Speaker 1: which they haven't really done outside of that first week.

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Speaker 1: They let him throw thirty one passes. I think twenty

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Speaker 1: six passes is his next highest mark, but I think

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Speaker 1: Bru McCoy can go over this total as well. That

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Speaker 1: is it for me. If you guys would like to

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Speaker 1: hang out with me on Monday, I'll be doing the

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Speaker 1: Locker app on Fantasy Pros. We play the Locker app.

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Speaker 1: We talk a little bit of Fantasy foot as well,

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Speaker 1: so check that out on the Fantasy Pro Discord. But

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Speaker 1: that is going to be it for me. Have a

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Speaker 1: good weekend, good luck, and I will see you all

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Speaker 1: next week. Take it easy, everybody. Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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Speaker 2: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 2: or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting

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00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 2: Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.

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Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our YouTube channel

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Speaker 2: At YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.