1 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: On this episode of news World. It's a lot going 2 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,799 Speaker 1: on right, whether it's the Black Lives movement, whether it's Corona, 3 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: whether all other things that's gone on in the world. 4 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: But for me, I feel like these things are coming 5 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: to the fort for a reason, right, and so we 6 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: have to know what's not working to get to a 7 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:19,799 Speaker 1: place of what he's working. Right. For me, I have 8 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: to trust in my belief that we are heaving in 9 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,319 Speaker 1: the right direction. There's nowhere you're over. It's hard to 10 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: think about anything but the interest. Don't see my brey. 11 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 1: One of the hottest topics right now, the coronavirus. I 12 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: think compared to other countries, how we've handled it is 13 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 1: not good. I'm still worried on what is going to 14 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 1: happen and how we're going to be moving forward with 15 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: the economy and the virus, media polarization both then stelling 16 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: discord essentially throughout the general population. The two party system 17 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: bothers me. It's been on a bad track for a 18 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: long time. You're always voting for the lesser of two evils. 19 00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: Not everybody reading the media is true. Things are if 20 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: you If I think I could got a podit that 21 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: came out of want. They the riot and COVID that 22 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:13,479 Speaker 1: are distrusting everything they hear anymore. Hi, this is new 23 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,319 Speaker 1: due to the virus. I'm recording from home, so you 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 1: may notice a difference in audio quality. You've heard a 25 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: lot about how important undecided and independent voters are to 26 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: deciding who wins the presidency, the Senate, Congress, and gubernatorial 27 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 1: races around the country. What is on the minds of 28 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: independence and soft Republicans and Democrats? What are the issues 29 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 1: that really matter? I think that it's very important to 30 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: recognize how complicated polling has become, both because voters are 31 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: more resistant to answering questions and because there are a 32 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: lot of different ways to communicate now that didn't used 33 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: to exist. One of the people that I'm really like 34 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: working with who knows a great deal about this is 35 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: John McLaughlin. John McLaughlin's a remarkably successful poster strategic consultant. 36 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 1: He's the CEO and partner of McLaughlin Associates. He's earned 37 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:18,639 Speaker 1: a reputation for helping some of America's most successful corporations 38 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: and winning some of the toughest elections in the country. 39 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: In twenty sixteen, John worked as an advisor and poster 40 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: for candidate Donald Trump from the primaries to election day. 41 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: He continues to advise President Trump and the White House 42 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 1: in campaign today. We've been working with John and have 43 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 1: done a series of focus groups in polls, particularly asking 44 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: questions about the challenges that independent voters feel they face, 45 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 1: and also because of what happened this summer with the 46 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: killing of George Floyd and the reaction to it, we 47 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 1: wanted to focus specifically on how they react to Black 48 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,639 Speaker 1: Lives Matter and what they're thinking is about that We're 49 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: concerned and part about how to conservatives broaden their base 50 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: of voters and attract new people who share the same values. John, 51 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: from your perspective, what's the state of the race now? 52 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: Right now? It's very close. There's a lot of polarization 53 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: like we've never seen before. And twenty sixteen, after the 54 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: President had won, we were talking about the results. He 55 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: was telling me it was a huge win and I said, well, 56 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: it was only seventy eight thousand votes out of a 57 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: record turnout of one hundred and thirty nine million, but 58 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: it was a historic election and we're really headed for 59 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: another historic election. When you think the challenges that we've 60 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 1: seen as a country in a world right now where 61 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: you've had this global pandemic, You've had the recession level, 62 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: high unemployment numbers, created a lot of anxiety and stress, 63 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 1: and then you had the terrible strategy of George Floyd Duyning, 64 00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: which triggered national protests and riots and loot violence, and 65 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: so the country was really stressed out. In the research 66 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: at English three sixty it had done prior to the 67 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: pandemic taking over, that research showed that voters had a 68 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: lot of anxiety. They were worried about simple things like 69 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 1: their own financial background, their financial security. They were worried 70 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: about their own healthcare, they were worried about their children's education, 71 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: They're worried about their own future. So they had all 72 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: these anxieties to begin with. And now you're getting this 73 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: compounded by the stress of the whole situation, what we've 74 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: gone through the past year, and people are dealing with it. 75 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: In the American economy's bouncing back and people are going 76 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,479 Speaker 1: back to work. But here you've got another historic election. 77 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 1: I mean, you and I have seen historic elections before. 78 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 1: One of the great moments of my career was back 79 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety four, in September ninety four, you had 80 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: developed the contract for America, and I had done a 81 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,799 Speaker 1: poll for the RNC, and I was able to deliver 82 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: it to Bob Michael and yourself in the republic in leadership, 83 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:02,919 Speaker 1: and I said, I've never seen a plus seven generic 84 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 1: Republican ballot for Congress before. And I said, as long 85 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: as we don't compromise with Hillary Care, the voters will 86 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: reward us. They like the contract, and we'll have a 87 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 1: Republican majority, something I've never seen in my lifetime. So 88 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: that was a piece of history that I'm proud to 89 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 1: have been a part of, or at least a witness 90 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: to what you had done. Here Again, we're looking at 91 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: this is unbelievably historic times and the challenges. We will 92 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: have a record turnout of voters before and it's extremely close. 93 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: And you can tell how close it is by the 94 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 1: way the politicians are trying to change the rules of 95 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 1: the election before the election. One of the things I 96 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: say is, if you don't believe that the polls are close, 97 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: then why in North Carolina did the Attorney General enter 98 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: into some agreement to allow ballot harvesting, get rid of 99 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 1: witness verification of absentee ballots, and also extend the mail 100 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 1: in balloting days from three days after the election if 101 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: they have a postmark to nine days. And it's going 102 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 1: on in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, places with the Democrats control 103 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: either the governorship or the legislature. They're doing things to 104 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 1: change the outcome of the election because four years ago, 105 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: I always thought that they didn't take President Trump seriously, 106 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: that they didn't think we could win. So this time around, 107 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: they're afraid that President Trump will win again and the 108 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: establishment is going all out to stop him. Could you John, 109 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: just take a minute and describe the difference between a 110 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: focus group and a poll. Well, a focus group is 111 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 1: qualitative research where you're trying to get the reasoning, and 112 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,479 Speaker 1: the poll is quantitative research. We're trying to assign a 113 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 1: number to it and see what the prevalence of public 114 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 1: opinion is. So what will happen is you took a 115 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: national poll before you did the focus group research, so 116 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: you could identify which segments of voters you wanted to 117 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: have a discussion with. So the poll would tell us 118 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: how many people were concerned about the economy, how many 119 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 1: people concerned about homelessness, how many people were concerned about 120 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: drug and opioid addiction. And then you would get certain 121 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: segments of voters, whether they were millennial or gen Z voters, 122 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: whether they were African Americans, whether they were Hispanics, whether 123 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 1: they were independent women, etc. You would get those voters 124 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: and you'd have the discussion. So the focus group would 125 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: tell you why. The poll tells you what's going on, 126 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: and then the discussion of the focus group is telling 127 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: you why. In the focus groups, you can see the voters. 128 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: When you take a poll, whether it's online these days 129 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: or whether it's cell phone or landline, you don't see 130 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: the voter. You see their responses and you assign a 131 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 1: number to it based on the percentage of the voters 132 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: that there were Republicans, Democrats, liberals, monitors, conservatives, etc. So 133 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: you get those numbers, and then when you bring certain 134 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: types of voters into a focus group discussion. And now 135 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 1: after the pandemic, most of these focus group discussions are 136 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: done online. Before that, you could bring them into a 137 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: focus group facility or someplace where you could have a discussion. 138 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 1: You can see the anxiety, the body language. You can 139 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: have a very good discussion with the voters to understand 140 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 1: what they're feeling and what they think the right solutions aren't. 141 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: The quantitative research of a poll is important to give 142 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: you the layer of the land. The qualitative research of 143 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: a focus group is important to give you the emotion 144 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: of it. Why are people concerned about this and what 145 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:38,959 Speaker 1: they think needs to be done? Hi, this is new 146 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:41,319 Speaker 1: I want to value to sign up for a yearly 147 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 1: subscription to my Inner Circle membership club or in a 148 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: critical time in our history, for the outcome of the 149 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: next election will set us in a course of two 150 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: very different American features. As a member of My Inner Circle, 151 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 1: you will receive exclusive invitations to join my video conferences 152 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: with twenty twenty election updates and my analysis of the 153 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: upcoming presidential debates. 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Sign up 162 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: for a one or two year membership today and newts 163 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:59,359 Speaker 1: inner circle dot com. That's newts inner Circle dot com. 164 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 1: One of the things which really emerged this summer whose 165 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: Black Lives Matter. So when we focused in on the 166 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 1: whole question of race in America and race relations in America, 167 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 1: did you run across things that surprised you. I wasn't 168 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 1: surprised by the level of people that were initially sympathetic 169 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 1: to Black Lives Matter, because it was aspirational and America 170 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: being the greatest country on Earth, and America being a 171 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: country that has fought against racism, fought for liberty and 172 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: opportunity for all people, for all citizens. You weren't surprised 173 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: at the reaction of people wanting to end racism. But 174 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: the difference was the lack of knowledge about the organization. 175 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: So Black Lives Matter basically was more of a brand 176 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: and a slogan than the perception of them as an organization. 177 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: Ap North did a poll and their headline was support 178 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: for racial justice protests to clients, and they had forty 179 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 1: four percent of Americans were now disapproving of the protests 180 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: in response to police violence against black Americans, while only 181 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: thirty nine percent approved in June, it was fifty four approved. Initially, 182 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: the peaceful protests that quickly evolved into riots and looting, 183 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 1: as you would expect, would decline, but still some people 184 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: still support these protests after it has become violence. We 185 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,959 Speaker 1: are a peaceful, democratic society. We have a Bill of 186 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,599 Speaker 1: Rights for a reason. We support people to voice their opinions, 187 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: to be able to go out and freely associate and 188 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 1: peacefully protest. But certainly what the vast majority Americans still 189 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: don't condone it when it goes to violence. And what's 190 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: really interesting, but public opinion is moving on the subject. 191 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 1: And I think that's what you found in your research 192 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: is people do want to end racism. They recognize it exists, 193 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 1: they want to end it, but they certainly don't condone 194 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 1: an organization that has underlying as sympathies or the leadership 195 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 1: might want to burn down the system. The vast majority 196 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: of Americans would reject that. Part of what I found 197 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:13,839 Speaker 1: intriguing was two different things. One, how you frame things 198 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: can lead to an enormous shift in what people say 199 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: to you. For example, there was a huge support for 200 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 1: peaceful demonstrations, but then if you also ask exactly the 201 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 1: same people, do you think that we should defund the police? 202 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: There was huge opposition to defunding the police. And the 203 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,719 Speaker 1: other struck me was that people who initially had been 204 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 1: told one thing by the news media and therefore had 205 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 1: responded to that framework as they watched over time, concluded 206 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 1: that that wasn't accurate and they really shifted. That's part 207 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 1: of what happened. My sense from all the work you 208 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 1: did was that Black Lives Matter as the slogan was terrific, 209 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 1: and then as people began to realize exactly what the 210 00:12:56,920 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: organization was, what it was trying to accomplish what its 211 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: founders believed in, support actually dropped at a pretty rapid rate. Specifically, 212 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: when you're talking about defunding the police with the African 213 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 1: Americans in the group, you had an African American woman 214 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: saying it doesn't make sense, and another of the African 215 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 1: American woman saying, I really don't know what defunding means. 216 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 1: If it totally demotivates the police, that is not helpful. 217 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 1: So you have a situation here where African Americans were like, no, no, no, 218 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 1: we don't want to defund the police. That's a really 219 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 1: bad idea because people would immediately equate it to an 220 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: increase in crime. Back in June, we had a national 221 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 1: poll where six out of ten voters didn't support defunding 222 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: the police, and three quarters of all voters thought it 223 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: would lead to an increasing crime. They recognize that there 224 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 1: was a situation to be fixed, but defunding the police 225 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: was really a radical idea that the vast majority of 226 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 1: Americans don't support. They see what it would lead to, 227 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,559 Speaker 1: further crime at a time when people are already stressed 228 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: about financial security and their personal safety. When you looked 229 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: at all the matorial was a year sense that people 230 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: are optimistic about the future of race in America or 231 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 1: pessimistic or roser particularly younger voters. They were absorbing the 232 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: media line that America has systemic racist problems that need 233 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: to be solved, and I think the pandemic people were 234 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 1: already stressed out, and you've got suburban women basically saying 235 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: a lot of racism in America very hard for black 236 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 1: people to have a chance. They want America to be 237 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: a more tolerant society of less racist society. The aspiration 238 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 1: of ending racism is very important to them. So I 239 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 1: think that's a good thing in terms of the society. 240 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: How do you think all this fits into the campaign 241 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: and what we're going to see in the next few weeks. Initially, 242 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 1: before the pandemic, the president was doing very well with 243 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: African American voters and Latino voters. In the last election, 244 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 1: the president got eight percent of the African American vote 245 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: and he got twenty eight percent of the Latino vote, 246 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: And prior to the pandemic, he was definitely running well 247 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: above that. He was headed for say, fifteen twenty percent 248 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 1: of the Black vote and maybe someplace between thirty and 249 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: forty of the Hispanic vote. And it's still possible that 250 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 1: he's going to do better than the last election. But 251 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: I think a lot of this became politically charged, precisely 252 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: to drive down his support among these minority groups because 253 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: they're considered essential to the Democrat Party. We're headed for 254 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 1: this historic election that some people are trying to say, Okay, 255 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: we don't want President Trump to do better with African 256 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: Americans or Hispanic voters or any groups. They're feeling this anxiety, 257 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: which is really not a good thing. Right now, What 258 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: what makes this such an unusual years? You have a pandemic. 259 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 1: You have people locked down, You have an economy which 260 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: went very badly down and now it is coming back 261 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: up with amazing speed. And you had nationwide riots and demonstrations, 262 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: many of them organized by people like Antifa when Black 263 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 1: Lives Matter. I mean, all these things are happening simultaneously. 264 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: When you look at the data you're looking at, and 265 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 1: you look at the focus groups you've done, how do 266 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 1: people sort all that out? Well, Initially, even before the 267 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 1: pandemic hit and put more stress on people's anxieties, they 268 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: were already concerned with their financial security, their healthcare system, 269 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 1: their own personalized the future of their kids. People were 270 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: certainly concerned about levels of debt, what was going on 271 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: with their family, etc. And what they were looking for 272 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 1: is they were looking for leap. And I mean in 273 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:06,640 Speaker 1: a large way, President Trump provides leadership regardless of the situation, 274 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 1: and he keeps moving forward. Where some people are advocating 275 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: a second lockdown, I mean, Joe Biden was talking about 276 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 1: a shutdown again, and the President was a note, we 277 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 1: have to keep reopening the economy, and the virus is subsiding. 278 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 1: And as the virus subsides, the economy reopens schools reopened, 279 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: people go back to the normal lives and the NAHO 280 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: a situation here where people are going to be reassured 281 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: when there's a vaccine that they will be able to 282 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 1: take the vaccine and their lives will be safer and better. 283 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,400 Speaker 1: But there's still some people who would even argue against 284 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 1: when we get to the point where we have a 285 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 1: successful vaccine, that they may not want people to take 286 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 1: it right away. So that doesn't make an easy answer 287 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 1: for people. When you're already stressed about a lot of 288 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 1: different issues, they're looking for leadership, and they're looking for 289 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: somebody to have a positive solution to serious problems in 290 00:17:56,600 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: their lives. And they know that for a while things 291 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,400 Speaker 1: were going well and that's why the president was doing 292 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: well pre pandemic. Now the pandemic, which has caused a 293 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: lot of stress as it subsides, people want to get 294 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 1: back to normal what they knew was life before the coronavirus. 295 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 1: Seem to me that part of what you surfaced in 296 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:19,680 Speaker 1: the focus groups and the poll was that people were 297 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 1: really looking for leadership that at a practical level, not 298 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: an ideological level, just would make their life manageable. A 299 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 1: lot of these things are just plain how do my 300 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 1: family and I survive. They're not theoretical or philosophical ideas, 301 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: they're very practical ideas. Has that changed, you think with 302 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 1: the intensity of the experience of the last year. A 303 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: lot of the people we spoke to were precise to 304 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: those people who would be in the middle or swing 305 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: voters during an election, whether they were younger voters, gen 306 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 1: Z or millennials, whether they were independent women, suburban women, 307 00:18:56,240 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: African Amery's Hispanics. It's not an ideological group. So what 308 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: they're really looking for is they're looking for leadership, and 309 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:07,200 Speaker 1: they were also looking for smart, common sense solutions where 310 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:10,399 Speaker 1: they could identify with this is the best way to 311 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 1: get rid of the debt in your life. This is 312 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: the healthcare coverage, This is the way to stabilize the 313 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 1: American dream for people, to make homeownership real again. They 314 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:23,480 Speaker 1: weren't looking for something that was unusual. They were looking 315 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 1: for basic things, very understandable goals in life where they 316 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 1: would like to have not a lot of debt, be 317 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: financially secure or have a job, be able to get 318 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,399 Speaker 1: their kids into school, be able to save up for retirement, 319 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 1: be able to buy a home, just the basic American dream. 320 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 1: They'd like to feel secure, and they'd like to have 321 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 1: those aspirations that they are able to achieve those goals 322 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 1: at a simple level, and they're looking for the political 323 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 1: leadership that says we can do these things by doing X, Y, 324 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 1: and z. When people go to a show page and 325 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,239 Speaker 1: look at all the material that we're posting, so it's 326 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: available to anybody democratic because it's really an effort to say, 327 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 1: this is kind of the conversation we need as a 328 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: country to begin to solve these problems. Were you made 329 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: more optimistic about the underlying desire of the American people 330 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:21,439 Speaker 1: to make America succeed and have their lives successful within 331 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 1: an American experience. Were you more optimistic or less optimistic 332 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: if you had done doing these I was more optimistic. 333 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 1: And the reason was is because granted, there some radical 334 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: solutions out there. At the time when you're doing this research, 335 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 1: socialism was percolating. But they had a good view of 336 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 1: capitalism versus socialism, that capitalism is not perfect, but it's 337 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 1: the better system, and certain things need to be done 338 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 1: to take care of people, etc. But they didn't want 339 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: to have some sort of radical solution that would underline 340 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 1: our future and our values. They still wanted the American dream, 341 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 1: they still wanted capitalism, still shared a sense of values 342 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: and optimism. They just want the leadership to be able 343 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 1: to get there. And as far as healthcare goes, they 344 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: didn't want something radically different. They want something where they'd 345 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: be assured they'd get good healthcare, pre existing conditions covered, etc. 346 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 1: They were also looking for a reasonable better expectation of 347 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 1: their lives. That it was not something that they wanted 348 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,919 Speaker 1: to have a radical reform or a radical change in 349 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: their lives. These were modest aspirations of goals for their family, 350 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: for the American dream, for their personal lives. And they 351 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 1: didn't come in with anger, they didn't come in with hate. 352 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 1: They were pretty tolerant Americans who wanted to get along 353 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: and wanted to take care of their own lives and 354 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 1: their own families. That's great, listen, John, thank you for 355 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 1: doing this, and I think people will find it very helpful, 356 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,120 Speaker 1: and I hope they'll take the time to go and 357 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: look at all the material that we have at ganguish 358 00:21:55,320 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: tweety dot com, slash polling. It's really pretty remarkable and 359 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 1: I'm delighted that you have been a partner in developing 360 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: all this well, I learned a lot as I was 361 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,160 Speaker 1: doing it. The information that you have on your website 362 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: and the research that you did at a really historic 363 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,719 Speaker 1: time kind of forecast what was going to happen and 364 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 1: at the same time as a good way to guide 365 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: us through the challenges that the country's facing right now. 366 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,880 Speaker 1: Thank you for letting me help you with this very 367 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:29,640 Speaker 1: important information at a really critical time in our history. 368 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: News World is produced by Gingwich three sixty and I 369 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 1: Art Media. Our executive producer is DeBie Meyers, and our 370 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: producer is Garnsey slam. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The 371 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special 372 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: thanks to the team at Gingwich three sixty. Please email 373 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: me with your questions at Gingwich three sixty dot com 374 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 1: slash questions. I'll answer a selection of questions in future episodes. 375 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 1: If you've been enjoying news World, I hope you'll go 376 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 1: to Apple Podcasts and both rate us with five stars 377 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,199 Speaker 1: and give us a review so others can learn what 378 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 1: it's all about. I'm n Gingrich. This is new twil