WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: August 23, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.279 --> 0:00:05.560 B from the Bloomberg Interactive Burger Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:10.040 day Break for Tuesday, AUGUSTO. Coming up this hour. US 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:12.920 stocks entered the session coming off their biggest loss in 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:15.760 two months. Traders are racing from our hawkish talk it 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:19.000 that FETs Jackson Hall gathering. It's primary day with key 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:21.639 races in New York and Florida heading the list, and 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:24.959 life expectancy in New York plummets in the wake of COVID. 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:28.120 Tri state area is cleaning up from heavy rains and flooding. 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:31.880 Plus New York Mayor Adams responds after more bus loads 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:35.760 of migrants arrived from Texas. Michael Blarer more ahead, I'm 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:38.519 John stas Star and sports. The Yankees beat Maxters are 0:00:38.600 --> 0:00:40.600 the Mets of the Subway series that come from behind 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:45.720 preseason win for the Jets. That's all s train ahead 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:48.760 on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg. He Living Free on 0:00:48.880 --> 0:00:53.279 New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:58.120 six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, Sirius Exam 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:00.920 one nine Team, and around the World Old on Bloomberg 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:08.000 Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business. Good morning. 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:11.720 I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm Karen Moscow. US index futures 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:13.960 are higher this morning. We're coming up to find the 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:15.840 one on Wall Street, and we check the markets every 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:19.360 fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg, SMP Future 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:21.400 is up seven and a half points down Future is 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:24.440 up fifty seven and nastay Future is up thirty. The 0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:27.760 ten year Treasury up one thirty second yell three point 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:30.080 zero zero percent, and they yield on the two year 0:01:30.200 --> 0:01:32.960 three point three two percent, and n nex screwed oil 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:36.319 is up one point four percent. Nathan well Karen. Stocks 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:39.199 are coming off their worst one day drop in two months. 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:42.039 The SMP five hundred index fell two point one percent, 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:45.720 the tech having Nasdaq one hundred sank two point seven percent, 0:01:45.959 --> 0:01:48.760 and the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lost six 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:52.320 hundred forty three points, or one point nine percent. Seabreeze 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:56.080 Partners president Doug Cast sees more tough times ahead four equities. 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:58.400 I think there's a non trivial chance at the SMP. 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:01.960 Early last year, I made a top for the balance 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:07.080 of the year um to me after the recent when 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:11.120 I described as a position based rally risk has returned 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:16.160 to risk assets as the fundamental backdrop is eroding. Seabreeze 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:19.480 Partners president Doug Cass made the comments on Bloomberg Surveillance 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:22.680 Catch the program on Bloomberg Radio and Television beginning at 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:25.600 seven am Wall Street Time, while Nathan the Wall Streets 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:28.320 sell off spilled into Asia A stocks in Japan and 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:30.880 Hong Kong falling around one per cent. We get the 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:34.560 recap from Bloomberg's Juliette Sally in Singapore. Good Morning, Juliet, 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:37.120 Good Morning, Nathan and Karen. The energy sector was the 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:38.959 only one in the green across the m s c 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:43.120 I Asia Pacific INDEXUS crude scaled a barrel lifted by 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:47.320 the possibility of OPEC plus output cuts. Japanese travel stocks 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:50.359 also rose amid a NICA news report Japan is considering 0:02:50.520 --> 0:02:54.680 ending the requirement for negative COVID nineteen tests for international arrivals. 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:57.359 Stocks in Hong Kong and China fell despite further steps 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.640 to stabilize the property market, and the one scituated but 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:04.000 held near a thirteen year low amid verbal intervention from 0:03:04.040 --> 0:03:08.000 authorities in Singapore. Juliet Sally Bloomberg Day Break, My Juliette, 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:10.280 Thanks for the dropping stocks around the world comes as 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:13.080 investors await signals on the path of interest rate hikes 0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:16.679 at the Federal Reserves Annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:20.239 this week. Bloomberg Economics correspondent Michael McKee is covering the 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:22.919 highly anticipated event. What we'll see is a lot of 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:25.040 volatility this week is trying to people try to read 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:29.080 into various economic indicators whether there's good news or bad 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:32.800 news coming. But Paula's position hasn't changed a whole lot, 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:35.200 and nor has the Feds. They believe they're going to 0:03:35.320 --> 0:03:37.880 have to keep raising rates to a certain point and 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.280 stay there for a while, where the market thinks that 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:43.280 they'll raise rates a little more and start cutting again. 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:47.400 Bloomer's Michael McKee, one noted FED watcher, says the Central 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:50.840 Bank should not cut rates again. In fact, Stanford University 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:54.440 economics professor John Taylor thinks rates should double from here. 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:58.880 I say, movie should names and that is not high 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:01.960 by historical under that's for sure, remember what it was 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:04.320 in the seventies. But it's it couldn't be high. I 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:07.880 wouldn't say, I wouldn't say absolutely five differ inflation doesn't 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:09.520 come down, then it may have to be hired, but 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:12.200 I think the inflation will come down and we can 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:14.040 stick it at a level like that. But let's get 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:17.440 there first. Stanford economics professor John Taylor says the FED 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:20.480 should be more communicative about where policy has to go. 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:23.360 I mean, well, Karen Fedge ones are unleashing record bets 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:26.039 the Fed will stick to its hawkish script at Jackson Hole. 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:29.279 The group's collectively placed a big short across futures for 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:31.159 a key overnight rate that moves in line with the 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:34.839 FEDS benchmark. That position will benefit if Chair J. Powell 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:38.719 effectively rules out a dovish pivot. Please stick with Bloomberg 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:41.880 for complete live coverage of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Bloomberg 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:44.719 Surveillance will be there beginning on Thursday with Tom Keene, 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:48.360 Lisa Abramowitz, and Jonathan Faroe. Well, Nathan, We now turn 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:50.920 from the Fed and the markets to some important political 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:53.880 news this morning. It's an election day, with primaries in 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:56.880 New York and Florida and a runoff vote in Oklahoma. 0:04:56.920 --> 0:04:59.040 Maybe Morris says more on what to watch from our 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:02.400 Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington. In New York, 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:06.560 redistricting left to longtime House Democratic colleagues Carol and Moloney 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:09.320 and Jerry Nadler competing for the same seat. In the 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:13.000 nineteenth district, Democrat Pat Ryan is running against Republican Mark 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:16.200 mullen Aro to fill the seat that Anthony Delgado vacated 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:19.680 to become Lieutenant governor. If mullen Aro defeats Ryan, that 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:23.320 could be assigned for Democrats in November. In Florida, as 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:27.279 the pole stand now, Republican incumbent Senator Marco Rubio will 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:31.839 likely face Democratic Representative val Demmings in November. Governor Rhnda 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:35.760 Santis will face either former Governor Charlie Kristen November or 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:38.839 Nicky Freed, who wants to become Florida's first woman governor. 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:41.880 In Oklahoma, the marquee event will determine the candidates who 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:45.360 vie for the unexpired Senate seat of Republican Jim Inhoff, 0:05:45.480 --> 0:05:48.720 who plans to resign in January. In Washington, i'm Amy 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:51.560 Moore as Bloomberg Daybreak Amy Thanks are also new developments 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.040 in the FBI search of former President Donald Trump's home 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:57.280 in Marlano, Florida, including reports of just how much classified 0:05:57.320 --> 0:06:00.279 material he may have been holding onto, Bloomberg said back, sir, 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:03.239 as the latest. Mr Trump says he wants a neutral 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:06.000 third party to look through the documents. In legally is 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:10.000 a special master. So this is the same judge considering 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:12.719 whether to make public portions of the documents seized by 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:15.400 the FBI to look at this now. The New York 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.839 Times says the government has recovered more than three hundred 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:23.560 documents now with classified marketings. It says one hundred fifty 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:27.479 sensitive documents recovered earlier made the d o J want 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.080 to know what Trump had taken from the White House 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:34.040 in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak and thanks. 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:35.920 We are getting more evidence this morning at the toll 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:37.800 of the pandemic has had on our lives, and we 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.640 get the latest line from Bloomberg's Rnia Young. Good morning, Rainia, 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:43.640 Good morning Karen. The CDC says life expectancy in New 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:47.359 York State dropped by three years in It's the biggest 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:50.640 decline among all states during the first year of the pandemic. 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:53.279 New York State residents are expected to live to just 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:57.160 under seventy eight years old. That's the fifteenth highest life 0:06:57.160 --> 0:07:00.160 expectancy in the US. But a steep drop from back 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:02.360 in twenty nineteen, when New York State had the third 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:05.680 highest raking. The CDC said last year that overall US 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:09.760 life expectancy plunged by one point eight years, in the 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:13.240 biggest drop since World War Two. Live in New York. 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:15.480 I'm rened a young Bloomberg day break. We need to 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:18.880 thanks local headlines and the check of sports. Next, this 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:25.200 is Bloomberg and it's now five oh seven on Wall 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:27.880 Street seventy two degrees in Central Park. Got an accident 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:31.360 already mestbound Belt Parkway at Bay Parkway. We'll get to 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:34.160 the details in traffic shortly, but first, Michael bars here 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:35.560 with what else is going on in New York and 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:38.200 around the world on this primary day morning. Michael, Good 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:40.760 morning Nathan. More than a thousand flights were canceled in 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:43.680 the US yesterday. Airports around New York City and in 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:47.320 Texas were hit the hardest, staffing shortages and severe weather. 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:50.400 We're blamed again. Meanwhile, heavy rain fell in parts of 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:54.040 the Tri state area, causing street flooding. In the Dallas 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:58.120 suburb of Mesquite, vehicles had to navigate flooded roads. Authorities 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:00.120 say a body was pulled from a vehicle aft or 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:03.040 it was found in the receding waters in East Texas. 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:07.120 Severe weather for schools to close early, including a suspected tornado. 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:11.480 Smith County Constable Josh Jumplet. We've had several portable buildings 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:15.200 that have been picked up and relocated. Constable. New York 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:19.360 City officials estimated over the weekend about hundred asylum seekers 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:23.560 from Central Land South America have arrived by bus from Texas. 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:27.560 Mayor Eric Adams is blaming Republican Governor Rabbit, saying his 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:31.000 refusal to let New York officials know about potential numbers 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:33.640 of migrants on the buses is driving the city to 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:37.839 a crisis level. The governor of Texas is not giving 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:40.880 any information at all, no matter how much we tried 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:45.120 to codinate crisis calls on coordination, and he has been 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:50.240 really uh, just a person who's mean spirited in the 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:53.160 area of helping people near times in a time of need. 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:56.800 Mayor Adams says it is leaving local and state resources 0:08:56.840 --> 0:09:00.440 and nonprofit struggling. New York Governor Cathey Hope calls as 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:03.960 the state is rolling back new COVID regulations for this 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:07.959 school year, including allowing positive students to stay in class, 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:11.880 provided they wear a mask. Hocal is also urging employees 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:14.240 in the state to consider a return to the office 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:15.920 as well. I mean, there's a lot of heap, a 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:20.560 lot of tourists, restaurants are crowded, um people coming back 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:23.800 and joining our social life, and we'd love to see 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:26.720 everybody back, going back in their offices, at least on 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:30.880 a hybrid situation. Governor Ocle is promising monkey Pops vaccines 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:34.000 for New Yorkers. Acting New York Health Commissioner Dr Mary 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:37.840 Bassett is promising that they will ensure access for those 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:41.520 at risk, including the l g DTQ community and communities 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:45.480 of color. Uh. These data show that we are right 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:50.360 to be very concerned about equity and access to vaccination. 0:09:51.120 --> 0:09:53.760 Dr Bassett says they're preparing to distribute the promise one 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:57.200 hundred ten thou doses from the Biden administration. Global News 0:09:57.200 --> 0:09:59.480 twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:01.959 Quick Take, powered by more than the hundred journalist and 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:04.520 antaalists and more than a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr, 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:11.360 This is Bloomberg Nath Michael, thank you, coming up to 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:13.440 five ten on Wall Street Time for the Bloomberg Sports 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:15.840 Updated morning John Stanshowner and morney Nathan but of an 0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:18.400 upset to start the two games Subway series in the Bronx. 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:20.560 The Mets went in certainly the hotter team with the 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.560 better pitcher on the mount. Yet Max Scherzer out pitched 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:26.320 by Domingo her Mom maybe the best game of his career, 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:28.920 shut out through six innings. Mets get on the board 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:30.920 in the seventh. The drop pop up was followed by 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.160 a two on homer by the Mets Daniel Vogel back. 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:35.240 But that's all the Mets got Yankees one, four to two. 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:38.120 Good relief pitching from Ron Marinaccio, Jonathan the White the Guy, 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:41.439 Aaron Judge home run number forty seven, ending his longest 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:43.720 home of list draft of the season, and Andrew Bennettendee, 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:45.920 who had the game winning home run Sunday, had two 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.960 runs scoring hits. His manager is Aaron Boone's such a 0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:51.920 good hitter, such a good back to ball, controls the 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:56.280 strike zone. Um, and it feels like he's really starting 0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:58.480 to settle in now. And uh, you know he's come 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.599 up big forest last full of days obviously, but I 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:03.760 feel like for the better part of the last week. 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:07.080 He's starting to build that lovelettum Boon. Tonight starts Frankie Mantas. 0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:09.319 He has struggled in his first three starts with the Yankster. 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.559 Mets decided to give Jacob Graham some extra rest, so 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.280 it'll be time one. Walker going to Deam had mettlive 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:16.959 big preseason come back by the Jets. They trailed Atlanta 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:20.040 sixteen to nothing. They rallied to win four to sixteen 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:23.959 touchdown passed by fourth string QB Chris Stavulari. The engineered 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:26.440 along t D Drive Jets added a fumble return to touchdown. 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:29.320 The Giants got word the knee injury suffered Sunday by 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:32.240 rookie linebacker Cavon Thibodeau was a spring to mcl out 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:34.680 three to four weeks, which would mean missing the first 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:37.680 one or two regular season games. Carolina Panthers at Baker 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:40.520 Mayfield will be the Week one starting quarterback. Hardly surprised 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:42.680 that he beat out Sam Donald. Tom Brady back with 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:44.959 the Tampa Bay Bucks, who are the report that he 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.720 spent the eleven days away from training camp with his 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.480 family and the Bahamas. You get some advantages when you're 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:56.520 Tom Brady John sports so true, Thank you John. Future 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:59.160 is moving higher on this Tuesday morning. Will check in 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:02.800 on this market and extra. Patrick Armstrong of plurimu Wald. 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:08.360 This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather. Mix of 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:11.120 sun in clouds today, some afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:14.480 going up to near eighty five degrees sunshine tomorrow, highs 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:18.400 near ninety and on Thursday as well. Right now seventy 0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:24.800 two in Central Park markets, headlines and breaking news twenty 0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:27.679 four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:37.640 Business Out and at Bloomberg Quicktake's a Bloomberg Business lash 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:41.000 and I'm Karen Moscow and US Dock Index futures are 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:46.320 edging higher. Treasuries are well. Treasury prices are higher as well. 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:48.640 Right now. That dollar is steady as markets remain on 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:51.680 edge ahead of the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium later 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:54.679 this week. Futures on the SNP and NASTACK they were 0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:58.120 fluctuating before turning higher after US stocks plunge the most 0:12:58.120 --> 0:13:00.800 in two months yesterday. We checked them its every fifteen 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.199 minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. Right now it's 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:05.640 in p futures are up seven points down. Future is 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:08.360 at fifty six nasday Future is up twenty three. The 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:11.120 decks in Germany is up a quarter percent. Ten year 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.959 Treasury now up one thirty second yield three percent. The 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:16.320 yield on the two year three point three two percent. 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.280 Non ex scrude oil is up one percent of a 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:21.679 dollar sixty and ninety one dollar ninety six cents of 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:24.640 barrel comics gold up three tenths per center five dollars 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:28.600 at seventeen fifty three sixty announced. The euro is at 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.960 point nine three three against the dollar. British found one 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:34.640 point one seven six three and again one thirty seven 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:37.200 point to six. Look at a big coin, it's up 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:39.559 one point two percent. It's a twenty one thousand and 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.960 three hundred seventy dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:45.560 here's Michael Barr with more on what's going on around 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:48.439 the world. Munchael, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Lawyers for 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.600 former President Trump have asked to federal judge to prevent 0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:55.559 the FBI from continuing to review documents recovered from his 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:59.680 Florida state until a neutral special master can be appointed. 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.360 It comes as the new York Times reports more than 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:06.600 three hundred classified documents were found at Mari Lango. Florida 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:10.439 holds its primary elections today. Two Democrats are squaring off, 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.880 hoping to face incumbent governor round the Santis State Agriculture 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:17.839 Commissioner Nicky Freed and US Representative Charlie Christ, who was 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:21.400 once governor himself as a Republican. New York also holds 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.880 primaries today. In baseball, the Yankees beat the Mets four 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.880 to the A's lost in NFL preseason. The Gents one 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.480 Global News twenty four hours a day on a or 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:35.120 and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than hundred 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:38.480 journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr, 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.880 this is Bloomberg, Nathan, Michael, thank you. It is five 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:45.320 nineteen on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactor Broker Studios. 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.960 This is Bloomberg Daybreak, and we're very pleased to be 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:51.360 joined this morning by Patrick Armstrong, chief investment officer at 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:54.000 PLUIMI Wealth. As we take a look at this market 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:56.240 this morning, Patrick, good to have you with us. As 0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:59.360 Karen mentioned, we are starting to see futures move a 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:03.360 touch high after two straight days of losses for US 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:08.920 stocks coming onto the Jackson Whole symposium. Have markets fully 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:12.080 priced in a hawkish tone from the Fed later on 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:14.720 this week? Um, I think they've gotten rid of some 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.600 of the speculative excesses that was priced in because of 0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:21.280 everyone was expecting a FED pivot. Well, I don't know 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:23.280 if everyone was expecting it, and the market seemed to 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.560 be pricing in a Fed's pivot to really move to 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:28.520 a dovish stance. I don't think we've heard that from 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:30.760 any of the rhetoric of the FED members. Voting and 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:34.360 non voting members are all saying at the most devilish, 0:15:34.440 --> 0:15:36.840 their data dependent, and the hawkish ones are calling for 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:39.200 seventy five basis point hike at the next meeting. So 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.040 it would be really surprising if we do get anything 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:44.360 dovish out of Powell. I think he's going to keep 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:47.120 his options open. Um. I don't know if the markets 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.800 pricing in something hawkish from him, but I think it's 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:52.520 removed some of the excesses about the devilish pivot that's 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:55.080 probably not going to happen. Do you think he's going 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:57.720 to keep his options open? It sounds like you're not 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:02.840 expecting any further clarity from Chairman Powell later on this week? 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:05.160 Is that what I'm hearing from you. I don't think 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:08.440 he can give clarity because you've got another inflation print, 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:11.840 You've got another jobs number coming out before feb or 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:14.520 September twenty one, when they'll be making their next interest 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:18.760 rate decisions. So he's got to keep his options open 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.000 because if you have a shocking number on the downside 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:23.440 or a really strong number like last time on the jobs, 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:25.560 that's going to change his thinking. So he can't put 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:28.160 himself into a corner. I don't think this Friday. Now, 0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:31.000 what do you think the market reaction will be if 0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:33.880 that case holds? If the Chairman Peal does keep his 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:39.080 options open and potentially give investors kind of room to 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.560 decide where they're going to go, Yeah, well that's the 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:45.040 way I think he'll do it. And I think investors 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:47.240 have the natural bias on what they think is going 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:49.320 to be happening in the coming months. If you are 0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:53.000 got a positive predisposition on where the economy is going, 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:56.240 you'll probably be wanting to buy risk. I don't see 0:16:56.560 --> 0:17:00.040 any strong economic numbers coming out of Europe, but the 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:03.400 US does look much more resilient than Europe. The job 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.320 market is still very strong. Half of companies are still 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:09.600 saying they're having trouble filling job opening. So you can 0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:13.399 see scenarios where the US avoids a recession, whereas the 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:15.520 economic numbers p M I that are coming out in 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:18.160 Europe or showing Europe has already admired in a recession. 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:21.440 Does that mean that you think that stocks have further 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:24.200 room to rally at this point? Have we seen the 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:29.399 bottom from June? I'm not sure I would. If you 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:31.840 push me on it, I'll say yes, I think that's 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:33.520 about the lower we get to, but I wouldn't be 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:36.159 surprised if we touch that again, um and retest the 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:39.120 June lows. I do think there's pretty compelling value out 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:41.800 there in some sectors. I would be buying a natural 0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:45.120 gas producing stocks today. Oil and gas altogether makes sense, 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:46.919 but if you can buy the stocks that are producing 0:17:47.000 --> 0:17:50.800 natural gas right now, they're incredibly cheap, putting a massive 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:52.639 cash flow, and they give you a bit of a 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:56.480 hedge against some of the stagflationary aspects that you see 0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:59.200 a big manufacturing slow down because of energy prices. So 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:03.080 that where I'd be buying UM. I do think the 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:06.760 most expensive stocks are going to see continued downside. So 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:10.680 the real innovation stocks that were priced for massive profit 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:13.440 growth eventually that aren't generating any profits right now. I 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:16.760 think as quantitative tightening really does begin in earnest in September, 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:19.840 those kind of stocks probably will make new loads. Looking 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:22.520 to take a more defensive stance. I think, what is 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:24.760 what I'm hearing from you? Does that have you looking 0:18:24.840 --> 0:18:28.639 more at small cap versus large cap? I'm not really. 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:30.919 I just think energy is the place to be put 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:36.200 in UM capital right now because incredibly cheap, massive casual generation, 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:38.560 and it does give you a hedge against the worst 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:42.040 aspects that come from the stagflation. And if you've got 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:45.399 manufacturing exposure, if you have cyclical exposure, it's going to 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:48.520 be the high energy prices that really choked those earnings off. 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:51.000 So I think adding those stocks while they're so cheap 0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:53.560 right now make good sense to me. So not small cap. 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.280 That sector is really sticking out to me though. The 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:59.640 last thirty seconds here, Patrick, what about treasury yields? Where 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:01.719 do you see them going off the back of Jackson 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:05.480 holl So, I think they'll probably grind higher by your 0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:09.080 end looking like three point three to three point five 0:19:09.240 --> 0:19:12.719 probably at most, because the US economy is stronger than Europe, 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:16.200 but it is slowing. UM quantitative tightening is going to 0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.480 push up yields and inflation is going to remain persistent. 0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:22.400 So I don't think Um Paul does get hawkish enough 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:25.400 to really choke down inflation expectations. So I think it'll 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:28.400 be a slow, steady grind hire and tenure yields. Really 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:30.879 appreciate this, Patrick, Again, great having you on with us 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:35.200 this morning. Patrick Armstrong, Chief Investment Officer at PLIMI Wealth, 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:39.880 and a reminder to stay with Bloomberg Radio throughout Jackson Hole. 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:44.080 Our coverage begins with Bloomberg Surveillance on Thursday ahead of 0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:47.679 Chairman Powell's speech ten am Wall Street time on Friday. 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:49.840 We will have it fully covered for you here on 0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:53.720 Bloomberg Radio. SMP futures right now up six point staff 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:57.240 futures of fifty one, Nastack future is higher by twenty points, 0:19:57.320 --> 0:20:00.200 and the tenure little change. Right now. The yield read 0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:08.320 point zero one percent. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:10.000 oh weather mix of sun and clouds today may be 0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:13.000 some afternoon showers and thunderstorms eighty five for an afternoon 0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:15.440 high will be in the uper eighties tomorrow with sunshine 0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:19.520 high your ninety on Thursday. Right now seventy two degrees. 0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:26.760 Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. 0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:31.520 Bloomberg E Living Free to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:35.040 Bloomberg What Old six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg N 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:38.399 sixty to the country Sirius XM Channel one nineteen and 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:41.800 around the globe the Bloomberg Business APT and Bloomberg Radio 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:51.040 dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty on 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:53.880 Wall Street. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:56.280 We're just about four hours away from the open of 0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.040 US training. Let's get you up to date on the 0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:00.200 news you need to know at this hour. We'll bos 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:02.760 are coming off their worst one day drop in two months. 0:21:03.040 --> 0:21:05.640 The S and P five index fell two point one 0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:10.480 per cent. UBS Managing Director Ali McCartney says, with increased volatility, 0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:13.560 investors need to be mindful of stock picks. Over the 0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:16.400 last number of years, you've really been rewarded no matter 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:19.680 what type of equity you had the concept of security 0:21:19.760 --> 0:21:23.280 selection and active management is really something we're leaning into. 0:21:23.720 --> 0:21:27.240 Ellie McCartney with UBS says rising rates and inflation will 0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:30.520 create uncertainty and equity markets well. The sell offs spilled 0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:33.240 into asiacaren, with stocks in Japan and Hong Kong both 0:21:33.280 --> 0:21:36.160 falling around one percent. The global drop comes as investors 0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:39.720 await the Federal Reserves annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later 0:21:39.800 --> 0:21:43.360