Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready.
Speaker 2: Or not, twenty twenty four is here, and we here
Speaker 2: at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can
Speaker 2: up our game for this critical election.
Speaker 3: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade
Speaker 3: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent
Speaker 3: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,
Speaker 3: it just means the absolute world to have your support.
Speaker 3: But enough with that, Let's get to the show. Donald D.
Speaker 3: Trump officially declared president of the president elect of the
Speaker 3: United States. He won the election last night. The AP
Speaker 3: called the race around four in the morning or so.
Speaker 3: He took to the stage roughly around two thirty to
Speaker 3: declare victory in a speech. We have some of that speech.
Speaker 3: This is the correct one this time. Let's take a
Speaker 3: listen and let's queue it up and watch.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 5: I want to thank you all very much. This is great.
Speaker 5: These are our friends. We have thousands of friends in
Speaker 5: this incredible movement. This is a movement nobody's ever seen before.
Speaker 5: And frankly, this was I believe the greatest political movement
Speaker 5: of all time. There's ever been anything like this in
Speaker 5: this country and maybe the all and now it's going
Speaker 5: to reach a new level of importance because we're going
Speaker 5: to help our country heal. We're going to help our
Speaker 5: country here.
Speaker 3: We have a.
Speaker 5: Country that needs help, and it needs help very badly.
Speaker 5: We're going to fix our borders, We're going to fix
Speaker 5: everything about our country. And we made history for a
Speaker 5: reason tonight, and the reason is going to be just
Speaker 5: that we overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible and it
Speaker 5: is now clear that we've achieved the most incredible political
Speaker 5: they look, what happened? Is this crazy? But it's a
Speaker 5: political victory that our country has never seen before, nothing
Speaker 5: like this. I want to thank the American people for
Speaker 5: the extraordinary honor of being elected your forty seventh president.
Speaker 6: And you are forty fifth president, and.
Speaker 5: Every citizen, I will fight for you, for your family
Speaker 5: and your future. Every single day I will be fighting
Speaker 5: for you, and with every breath in my body, I
Speaker 5: will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe,
Speaker 5: and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve.
Speaker 3: So there we go. That was the victory. Speech continued
Speaker 3: for a little bit while Kamala Harris will be giving
Speaker 3: her concession a little bit later today. Guys, we can
Speaker 3: put that up on the screen. Roughly around four pm
Speaker 3: Eastern time here in Washington from Howard University, where she
Speaker 3: spent some of election night at her party on Tuesday,
Speaker 3: decided the news leaked out roughly around two am that
Speaker 3: she wouldn't be taking the stage to give her concession
Speaker 3: at that time. But yeah, I mean yeah, for those
Speaker 3: who were not watching live, we had a fun like
Speaker 3: you know, joke about the fact is the right is
Speaker 3: very upset that she is not giving a concession. And
Speaker 3: I mean, like, on principle, I do agree that she's
Speaker 3: just conceded like last night and or this morning, like
Speaker 3: Hillary Clinton. But yeah, she's decided to drag it out
Speaker 3: a little bit. Also, we have never heard a word
Speaker 3: from the White House. The pile weren't crazy.
Speaker 7: The people weren't.
Speaker 8: Therefore, sorry, God, let let him hear our decent counter,
Speaker 8: which is that be my guest. Trump still to this
Speaker 8: day has given his concession speech for twenty twenty.
Speaker 3: Well now he doesn't have to. Now he never has.
Speaker 7: He should give one the time.
Speaker 3: What does he have Towell?
Speaker 8: You know what, I actually I actually did lose in
Speaker 8: twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: It was just what did he say? It was being
Speaker 1: sarcastic or something.
Speaker 2: He was being sarcastic, Yeah, because he did act she
Speaker 2: sort of kind of admit that he lost. And then
Speaker 2: when he got asked about it the debate, he was like,
Speaker 2: I wasn't being real. That was just now he could
Speaker 2: do the reverse if you like, that will stop this deal.
Speaker 1: So that wasn't I didn't mean it anyway.
Speaker 3: It's over.
Speaker 4: But I will say this is legitimately a huge lingering
Speaker 4: question for the MAGA right, which poured millions of dollars
Speaker 4: everyone knows. I mean, if you were in the conservative
Speaker 4: space for the last couple of years, all the donor
Speaker 4: energy and money was behind election integrity, and they were.
Speaker 4: Yesterday Donald Trump was saying, he's pointing to alleged I
Speaker 4: regularities all over the country, and so this is going
Speaker 4: to be a huge, huge question, did it. Are they
Speaker 4: going to claim that the election integrity counter efforts worked?
Speaker 6: I mean, seriously, let's all be honest.
Speaker 2: But this is actually the part I woant to elaborate
Speaker 2: on because I was just on Peers Morgan with that
Speaker 2: guy Vinni from PbD and he was saying, all this
Speaker 2: the number one priority and the Trump administration needs to
Speaker 2: be election integrity because the Democrats flew all these illegals
Speaker 2: into swing states blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: It's like, well, if they did.
Speaker 2: That, why didn't it deliver form like what happened.
Speaker 3: Trump?
Speaker 2: That's it the Latino shifts like you ended up winning them.
Speaker 2: So I guess you're welcome.
Speaker 3: So we do have an element that I think really
Speaker 3: hammers home just how titanic of an election this was.
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and put the at Financial Times chart
Speaker 3: please on the screen. It's in the rundown called the
Speaker 3: red wave chart. And basically Donald Trump gained ground in
Speaker 3: all forty eight out of fifty states or Washington, Utah
Speaker 3: and Washington where he did not improve his performance from
Speaker 3: last time around.
Speaker 2: And if you look at the map like coast to coast,
Speaker 2: I mean it is just a siege. That Washington Post
Speaker 2: map we kept pulling up last night and referring to
Speaker 2: that shows the shifts in every county. It's like just
Speaker 2: a wash in red. And so it wasn't just the
Speaker 2: biggest ships were among some of the demographic groups we
Speaker 2: talked about, Latinos in particular.
Speaker 3: That's the big the big thing of the pro demographic two.
Speaker 2: You know, young Men and jen x Men actually were
Speaker 2: big showed up big for Donald Trump as well.
Speaker 6: Jen x Men. That sounds like a TV show, a
Speaker 6: really bad one, Yeah, coming to TV land.
Speaker 1: But you know, the games were almost across the board.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it really was every demographic.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so it makes it very hard to you know,
Speaker 2: so we're going to react to some of the media
Speaker 2: stuff later, but it makes it very hard to feel like, oh,
Speaker 2: it was you know, Arab Americans, it was this, It
Speaker 2: was that. It really was a sort of national movement repudiation,
Speaker 2: which I think, you know, also makes it more difficult
Speaker 2: for liberals and Democratic Party supporters in certain ways to
Speaker 2: deal with in twenty sixteen, because twenty sixteen it was
Speaker 2: like call me Russia, sexism.
Speaker 1: She didn't go to Wisconsin. Next time we'll get them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this time, it's like holy shit, yep, yeah, you.
Speaker 3: Know what, Now we have our election guru, Logan. By
Speaker 3: the way, we're going to bring Logan in here, now,
Speaker 3: go ahead, Logan.
Speaker 9: I think you're right about that, Crystal, and this is
Speaker 9: a tough day if you're a Democrat. But I also
Speaker 9: would say there's been like five times in the last
Speaker 9: twenty four to twenty eight years where a party thought
Speaker 9: they were completely out after a bad election, you know,
Speaker 9: from nineteen ninety six for Republicans to after nine to
Speaker 9: eleven and two thousand and four Democrats thinking they were
Speaker 9: hopeless Publicans feeling hopeless in a way like we just
Speaker 9: go through this all the time, and I'm just starting
Speaker 9: the list, but I'm gonna finish that.
Speaker 3: Some one, well what were you, Well, no, you're not
Speaker 3: wrong that we should This is not this is not
Speaker 3: an obituary forever, but it is a near term problem.
Speaker 3: Like it's a shake problem, not only problem, it's a
Speaker 3: narrative buster in so many ways. Like we have the
Speaker 3: Latino men who over they went majority for Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: We had white suburban women who they bet the house
Speaker 3: on who also went majority for Donald Trump. So we
Speaker 3: did see an overall increase in some of the female vote.
Speaker 3: But one of the things actually that was incorrect was
Speaker 3: this idea that the gender gap was going to be
Speaker 3: exclusive amongst Gen zs. Not Actually it was just roughly
Speaker 3: around twenty points, which is normal. It was just up
Speaker 3: and down the chain all the way from senior men
Speaker 3: to senior women.
Speaker 6: Total mirror image.
Speaker 3: Absolutely in terms of the retrospective too. It's really interesting,
Speaker 3: you know, thinking about polls and modeling and kind of
Speaker 3: like what went wrong here. I haven't looked at the
Speaker 3: exact number, but I believe that the poll on average
Speaker 3: in the battleground states off by about three point five
Speaker 3: percent away from Donald Trump's direction. But really the big
Speaker 3: failure here, no offense, logan, because it's not your fault,
Speaker 3: but it's everybody for all of the modelers was they
Speaker 3: simply had no idea how to facilitate a model where
Speaker 3: you had such major independent, young voter, Latino voter, and
Speaker 3: even black mail voters all breaking for Trump in a
Speaker 3: way that they have never voted before in modern history.
Speaker 3: So curious.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and let me toss that to you look at
Speaker 4: it with a slight defense as well, like counter to
Speaker 4: sagers that if we're looking at like the RCP battleground
Speaker 4: averages and going back to where they actually ended up,
Speaker 4: it was still these counts in these states, it's looking
Speaker 4: like it is marginal. To be fair, it's looking like
Speaker 4: maybe a three point victory in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 6: What a one point.
Speaker 3: Five that's pretty big, you know, but I mean based on.
Speaker 1: Where the poll was a margin of error.
Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: You know, if if you had a bunch of polls that.
Speaker 2: Were like Ti trumpless one hot one, you're looking at
Speaker 2: a margin of er kind of race.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I say it's on the on the outer bound
Speaker 3: to that, right, but not in like Wisconsin.
Speaker 4: So if we're looking at Wisconsin, if we're looking at
Speaker 4: I guess Georgia and North Carolina is looking more likely Pennsylvania, Michigan.
Speaker 4: So logan, I mean, what does that tell us about
Speaker 4: how well or how poorly the posters actually performed here?
Speaker 9: I think the posters did an okay job when it
Speaker 9: came to showing the shape of the electorate or the
Speaker 9: shape of the election, I should say in that they
Speaker 9: were saying, hey, the swing states, they're way more competitive
Speaker 9: than the popular vote would suggest. And the popular vote
Speaker 9: ended up, you know out Democrats ended about right losing it.
Speaker 9: But you know it could be to the point that
Speaker 9: even a one percent loss for Democrats could lead to
Speaker 9: a popular to an electoral college victory. And really what
Speaker 9: happened is was just a few points off. But this
Speaker 9: shape was roughly right.
Speaker 2: I mean, they did pick up some of the trend,
Speaker 2: you know, the Latino shift, ye, the African American shift.
Speaker 6: The gender gun.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there were us from there.
Speaker 2: But I think you just have to say, after three
Speaker 2: election cycles of Trump outperforming the polls, that they just
Speaker 2: can't totally capture his coltion exactly. And so the ones
Speaker 2: that were like trying to clude like, well, we're just
Speaker 2: gonna spot them a few points in Hinzeier, well, I
Speaker 2: guess that was the right thing to do.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 3: Also, it's a couple of things because it's not only
Speaker 3: was his strength and rural voters so strong last night,
Speaker 3: it was his ability to drive it out everywhere across
Speaker 3: the board. So I have some fascinating numbers that actually
Speaker 3: show his blue state strength, which is, by the way,
Speaker 3: this is crazy just for popular vote purposes considering that
Speaker 3: he won that, but also for how the GOP will
Speaker 3: conceive of itself in the future. So in New York,
Speaker 3: for example, it went from Democrat plus twenty three to
Speaker 3: Democrat plus twelve. So that's almost what a twelve points wing.
Speaker 3: Almost New Jersey went from D sixteen to D plus four.
Speaker 3: It's only a four point margin. In Massachusetts D thirty three,
Speaker 3: D twenty six, Rhode Island went D twenty three D thirteen.
Speaker 3: Connecticut d two eight, Vermont thirty six thirty two, that's
Speaker 3: the only one that state, relatively flat Maryland even had
Speaker 3: a ten point swing towards Donald Trump, and even Joe
Speaker 3: Biden's home state of Delaware had a five point swing
Speaker 3: towards Trump. So one policy implication I tweeted this morning is,
Speaker 3: by the way, Salt Cap, it's back on the table.
Speaker 3: There's no way if you blow it out like this
Speaker 3: and you win. I think he did better in the
Speaker 3: City of New York, in Manhattan than any Republican since
Speaker 3: like nineteen ninety two something like that. Over thirty years,
Speaker 3: actually in AOC's district in the Bronx increased his Hispanic
Speaker 3: vote share. So I mean, it's just wild if you
Speaker 3: look at all of the if anything, to me, the
Speaker 3: swing state swing, the demos there and the movement is
Speaker 3: even less interesting than a lot of this stuff happening
Speaker 3: in California, in New York. In Texas, for example, we
Speaker 3: saw Star County, the most Latino county in the entire state,
Speaker 3: swing towards Donald Trump. I think it's a fifty or
Speaker 3: sixty point swing from how they voted in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 3: So I mean that is to me true like shocking thing.
Speaker 3: And you know, the only mistake I think I made
Speaker 3: in my election prediction was not betting hard enough on
Speaker 3: the Latino realignment, remember, because that was my justification. I
Speaker 3: was like, well, it's gonna be a problem and all
Speaker 3: of this. But to be honest, a lot of these
Speaker 3: traditional political people, like our posters, people like Anne Seltzer,
Speaker 3: I mean, she was wrong by what fift something.
Speaker 4: It's like the Marquette No, this is like the it's
Speaker 4: like the Marquette Pole twenty no.
Speaker 6: No, but this is the Marquette poles.
Speaker 4: Talk about Moody Day indicated alive totally.
Speaker 6: Maybe no, no, no, no.
Speaker 4: It reminds me of when the Marquette Pole came out
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty. Everyone in DC thinks of the Market
Speaker 4: Pole as the quote unquote gold standard. People Wisconsin are
Speaker 4: very proud of it. I've seen it be wrong many times.
Speaker 4: And that market pole that had Biden up at like
Speaker 4: fourteen points in twenty twenty. He won the state in Wisconsin,
Speaker 4: but it was not a fourteen point victory, right, And
Speaker 4: so there's something really wrong in some of those polls
Speaker 4: that led I mean, I think women This is probably
Speaker 4: one of the interesting stories to come out of it
Speaker 4: is if you're looking again at suburban Atlantis and Milwaukee,
Speaker 4: Trump did.
Speaker 6: He just did better with women than people expect it.
Speaker 2: So let me say what I think happened, and also
Speaker 2: why I got it so wrong, because I think I
Speaker 2: overlearned the lesson of twenty twenty two, where we were
Speaker 2: going in like this is going to be a run,
Speaker 2: where like.
Speaker 1: It is a wrap. Look at these numbers, the economic numbers.
Speaker 2: Inflation's bad, Biden's unpopular, like this is going to be
Speaker 2: a bloodbath, and Republicans won the popular vote, but it wasn't,
Speaker 2: and you know, bucked historic trends.
Speaker 1: Democrats really outperform.
Speaker 2: And you look at, you know, at who did the worst,
Speaker 2: and it was people who were really bad on abortion
Speaker 2: and states that had you know, abortion as a live issue,
Speaker 2: and you also had, you know, this issue of extremism
Speaker 2: and the stop the steel can a people like carry playing,
Speaker 2: et cetera. And so you look at that and I'm like, oh,
Speaker 2: I need to adjust my view because I previously was saying,
Speaker 2: like this stuff is not really a good thing to
Speaker 2: run on. Stick to the bread and butter economics, populist economics,
Speaker 2: like that's been the mantra, I look at twenty twenty two,
Speaker 2: I'm like, my view was wrong, so I need to adjust,
Speaker 2: Like these issues are more important to people than I
Speaker 2: thought they would, and wrote really reshape the electorate in
Speaker 2: a way that was much more precipitous than I expected.
Speaker 2: But you have two things that are different in twenty
Speaker 2: three things. Number hopefully I can remember three. Given that
Speaker 2: number one high.
Speaker 3: We're actually tired. I'MI like Rick Perry, who was just
Speaker 3: on painkillers at the time.
Speaker 6: I don't know what Ryan's over there.
Speaker 3: Number One.
Speaker 2: Difference between general electorate and midterm definitely right, so much
Speaker 2: broader turnout. You know, in twenty twenty two the ladies
Speaker 2: were fired up.
Speaker 6: About abortion, low propensity voters.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Number two, that's exactly right. Number two, you just have
Speaker 2: more distance between these events.
Speaker 3: And now, right it's been several years.
Speaker 2: Number Three, the Donald Trump effect, Like we're just talking
Speaker 2: before about the how he overperformed every Republican. I mean,
Speaker 2: Carrie Lake is still going to lose again even in
Speaker 2: a Republican wave year because other republic he listen, you know, Kamala,
Speaker 2: I'm going to I'm going to give the Democrats a
Speaker 2: hard time here in a moment, but you also have
Speaker 2: to give him his credit that he is a uniquely compelling,
Speaker 2: charismatic figure, and that may be some I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: that may be something Republicans have to grapple with in
Speaker 2: the future, given this will be his you know, last
Speaker 2: term in office. But you know, as I was thinking about, okay, well,
Speaker 2: what went wrong here? And you could certainly pinpoint, you know,
Speaker 2: micro campaign decisions that I think are consequential, the choice
Speaker 2: of like Mark Cuban and Liz Cheney over like Bernie
Speaker 2: Sanders and Sean Fame as those two different you know,
Speaker 2: potential directions and who you're signaling to. And you did see, Hey, Kamala,
Speaker 2: she won voters over who make over one hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: So this all play it into.
Speaker 2: The view that, oh, this is the party of like
Speaker 2: the well off and the rich and these elite concerns,
Speaker 2: et cetera. But I really think it's almost unfair to
Speaker 2: her to lay it all at her feet, because the
Speaker 2: truth of the matter is, I think the Democratic Party
Speaker 2: has screwed themselves ever since they've blocked Bernie Sanders back
Speaker 2: in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 1: And I know this sounds like ultimately it's no.
Speaker 2: It's an interesting take, but the reality is that the
Speaker 2: neoliberal era is dead, and trump Ism represents the right
Speaker 2: wing response to that. It's a response I disagree with.
Speaker 2: I think it scapegoats the wrong people. I think it's
Speaker 2: bad for the country. I think it's anti democratic, But
Speaker 2: it represents a coherent vision.
Speaker 1: On the left. In the democratic side, they moved heaven and.
Speaker 2: Earth to block the left wing populist response to the
Speaker 2: death of neoliberalism and the manifest failures of neoliberalism. And
Speaker 2: so you ask yourself, okay, well, you know what would
Speaker 2: be the evidence for this? And when I think about it,
Speaker 2: like who were the parts of Bernie Sanders coalition, Like
Speaker 2: where he was the strongest Latinos, working class bros.
Speaker 4: Like AOC's district looks right now according to Ryan Gardusky,
Speaker 4: like it is having one of the biggest wings towards
Speaker 4: Trump right in the country.
Speaker 2: Literally, you know, literally Joe Rogan right, and those are
Speaker 2: all the people who who are fleeing the fastest. So
Speaker 2: you know, previously, this idea that was put out by
Speaker 2: liberals of like the Bernie de Trump pipeline as a
Speaker 2: way of deriding the Bernie Sanders movement and saying, oh,
Speaker 2: this is just like a sort of glorified like way
Speaker 2: to you know, to actually shift people to the right.
Speaker 3: That was wrong.
Speaker 1: But what is.
Speaker 2: Correct is that many people when they who were Bernie
Speaker 2: Sanders part of that coalition, have gone to Trump. And
Speaker 2: the other thing you can say about that is that
Speaker 2: only thing you can never know if that like alternative
Speaker 2: left populist vision would be able to defeat the you know,
Speaker 2: right populace.
Speaker 1: I would say authoritarian vision.
Speaker 2: But you do know that at the time when there
Speaker 2: was an ongoing choice between the Bernie Sanders model and
Speaker 2: the Trump model, those voters were going with the Bernie
Speaker 2: Sanders model. So I think Democrats by completely blunting that
Speaker 2: movement insulting the earth.
Speaker 1: And Ryan has written.
Speaker 2: Literally the book about how that worked, not just with
Speaker 2: Bernie but with the squad and with all of that.
Speaker 2: By really blocking that movement insulting the earth, they have
Speaker 2: screwed themselves. And you know, I want to say, like
Speaker 2: Biden has had in his administration some important breaks from
Speaker 2: the neoliberal era, Kamala ran some populist economic ads like
Speaker 2: really focused on that. So it's not like they've done nothing.
Speaker 2: But you cannot say what a coherent Kamala Harris vision,
Speaker 2: like post neoliberal vision is because ultimately she is a neoliberal.
Speaker 2: All these people are, and that's what the you know,
Speaker 2: Mark Cuban and the I won't say what I'm going
Speaker 2: to do on Lena Kahan and the embrace of Liz Cheney.
Speaker 1: That's what that all communicates.
Speaker 6: And Tim Walls and Ryan, what do you make of this?
Speaker 4: Because I remember you guys were like feeling very happy
Speaker 4: with the Tim Walls because it signaled a sort of
Speaker 4: a bone to the burning braide, who said, let's run
Speaker 4: boldly on full progressive policies and not run in the
Speaker 4: opposite direction the milk past. Let's go all in bold colors,
Speaker 4: not pal pest point, Ronald Reagan said.
Speaker 6: From the right.
Speaker 7: So her polling at that point was like four or
Speaker 7: five points.
Speaker 1: That was when it was.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and well was she though?
Speaker 3: That's the that's the end. The ultimate question is whether
Speaker 3: any of her polling collapsed.
Speaker 7: Yeah, over the next we did see that.
Speaker 2: I Mean, here's the thing is, no one can say
Speaker 2: for sure, but you can say at that point there
Speaker 2: was a lot more energy and excitement around the canteen.
Speaker 2: You can say, also, you know, Tim Walls right after
Speaker 2: he got selected, and he went on I think it
Speaker 2: was with Azraklin actually and was like, I think we
Speaker 2: need to do paid family leave.
Speaker 1: As a first act, and then you never heard about it.
Speaker 3: Again.
Speaker 2: Part of why people like Ryan and I were excited
Speaker 2: is because Tim Walls came with this sort of like
Speaker 2: package agenda, which was basically the parts of build back
Speaker 2: Better that didn't get done and wasn't the Bernie Sanders' agenda, no,
Speaker 2: but it was something like it was Okay, I can
Speaker 2: and I can sink my teeth into this, I can
Speaker 2: understand how this would relate to my family. And again,
Speaker 2: I don't want to discount they ran a lot of
Speaker 2: ads on some solid economic plans, but that was not
Speaker 2: foregrounded in terms.
Speaker 1: Of the media conversation.
Speaker 2: I actually think that the earned media piece, which was
Speaker 2: war focused around Liz Cheney, democracy, et cetera, ended up
Speaker 2: being much more significant than what any of the paid
Speaker 2: ads were.
Speaker 3: Look At the results in Minnesota, like Donald Kamala will
Speaker 3: win Minnesota by the margin that Donald Trump won the
Speaker 3: state of Pennsylvania. That's nuts, you know, considering the Tim
Speaker 3: Walls pick and what that ultimately means. I do think
Speaker 3: you know, to a certain extent, it's difficult to diagnose it.
Speaker 3: I think twenty sixteen definitely is the demarcation point. How though,
Speaker 3: you know, I really can't think of anyone but Andrew
Speaker 3: Breitbart right now in terms of politics is downstream from culture,
Speaker 3: and like, the truth is, like twenty sixteen was a
Speaker 3: major cultural demarcation point in which the Democratic elites and
Speaker 3: others like pioneered and decided to like really focus on
Speaker 3: identity politics as the way to defeat Donald Trumps. And
Speaker 3: it's their explanation defeating.
Speaker 1: Their say it was actually to defeat Bernie.
Speaker 2: The sloppy media conversation is like, oh, the left is
Speaker 2: responsible for all this cancel culture and wokeness and identity obsession.
Speaker 2: The reality is this was a tactic used by Hillary
Speaker 2: Clinton and her allies to you know, and like Bernie
Speaker 2: Sanders was a racist and sexist because he talked in
Speaker 2: class versus universalist language versus fixating on different demographic groups.
Speaker 8: Yeah, and one thing people don't quite realiz I don't
Speaker 8: think is that Democrats kind of jiu jitsued themselves into
Speaker 8: an unelectable position by their embrace of identity politics in
Speaker 8: an effort to target Bernie Sanders. In other words, Hillary
Speaker 8: Clinton made the She sensed that there was something populist
Speaker 8: going on, that people were angry about something, and that
Speaker 8: the left was kind of a sndment within the party,
Speaker 8: and she decided that instead of saying, look, I'm the
Speaker 8: electable candidate I have, I'm more experienced, and I'm going
Speaker 8: to beat whoever the Republican is, she decided, bizarrely in
Speaker 8: the Democratic primary that she was going to claim that
Speaker 8: she was actually the one that was on the left,
Speaker 8: that was on the left, the left of Bernie Sanders,
Speaker 8: because Bernie Sanders is out of step with the rise
Speaker 8: of what they called the Great Awokening at the time.
Speaker 1: Breaking up she.
Speaker 2: Said, breaking up the big banks won't end racism.
Speaker 8: And that's the start of my book of her saying
Speaker 8: that Bernie Sanders is a single issue candidate and his
Speaker 8: single issue was the economy, and then she goes in
Speaker 8: breaking up the banks won't and sexism and won't then
Speaker 8: raise it, and so you then had this interesting perception
Speaker 8: where a bunch of people in the primaries actually thought
Speaker 8: Bernie Sanders was more moderate than he was because Hillary
Speaker 8: Clinton was attacking him from this woke left right, And
Speaker 8: so when people now say that Kamala Harris was too
Speaker 8: far left, they're referring to that. And so that's how
Speaker 8: they jiu jitsued themselves into this position of taking positions
Speaker 8: that are unpopular on the economy and kind of pragmatic,
Speaker 8: as Kamala Harris would call it, but basically, you know,
Speaker 8: friendly to Wall Street and friendly to business, but still
Speaker 8: being pegged as too far left in ways that nobody
Speaker 8: actually wanted.
Speaker 3: I'm curious, I'm curious of the identitarian left will be
Speaker 3: dealt like they've been sass okay, but maybe Ryan, I mean,
Speaker 3: these are very very powerful, but will they see it
Speaker 3: that way? Will they see it that way?
Speaker 7: And what's the guy's name?
Speaker 3: Ellie Misel? Is that his name? Yeah, so you know
Speaker 3: already being like, oh the Latino, I mean, let our
Speaker 3: black Ryan's right, they've.
Speaker 2: Been routed because I think even how Kamala ran this campaign,
Speaker 2: like she did not talk at all about.
Speaker 1: Like I'm a black woman and here's blah blah blah.
Speaker 3: She only had the hens still paid the price for and.
Speaker 2: They also, yeah, she had the hangover of it. That's
Speaker 2: exactly right. And also I mean already if you look
Speaker 2: at all the commentary on Morning Shoe and whatever. This
Speaker 2: is what they're blaming that, and you know, any other
Speaker 2: position that they could characterize as coming from the left,
Speaker 2: and you know, in terms of the future electoral prospects,
Speaker 2: like I think Logan's point is apt. Like, you know,
Speaker 2: to go back to when Democrats were in the wilderness
Speaker 2: after the Ronald Reagan era and George hw Bush and
Speaker 2: they thought, God.
Speaker 1: We may never be able to win again.
Speaker 2: What their response was just to basically adopt the Republican framework.
Speaker 2: And I personally think we're already seeing that being the
Speaker 2: response from the Democrats. That's what embracing effectively the Republican
Speaker 2: view on immigration. I know you guys might dispute that,
Speaker 2: but that's the reality. Is ditching the idea of a
Speaker 2: path to citizenship, that's what that looks like. You know,
Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom, who was the most ambitious person in the
Speaker 2: entire world, is out there saying, hey, I'm going to
Speaker 2: go and personally raise homeless encampments and signed tough on
Speaker 2: crime legislation into law. So I think the response from
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party is going to be to help to
Speaker 2: cement in the same way Bill Clinton helped to cement
Speaker 2: the neoliberal era. I think it's going to be to
Speaker 2: help to cement this sort of right wing populous.
Speaker 7: Running out of things that can hit him on.
Speaker 3: He just won the popular vote on this. Also, Gascon
Speaker 3: in Los Angeles just got blown out, and the Gatskan
Speaker 3: is one of those progressive das. So I think what I'm.
Speaker 2: Saying, I'm saying they won, like this is what we
Speaker 2: need to do, because we would rather do that than
Speaker 2: like there's almost no going back for them to that
Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders moment to offer the alternative, like left populist vision.
Speaker 2: So what I'm saying basically is like, you know, the
Speaker 2: reason I'm depressed is not because I don't think Democrats
Speaker 2: will ever win.
Speaker 1: I don't really give a shit that much about whether
Speaker 1: Democrats win again.
Speaker 2: It's because I think the ideological battle is basically done.
Speaker 6: Like there was a.
Speaker 2: Question after the financial crisis. You know, there was this
Speaker 2: this stirring of popular sentiment on the left and the right,
Speaker 2: and there were truly competing visions for Okay, neoliberalism, Like
Speaker 2: people are rejecting it and we're you know, there needs
Speaker 2: to be something different moving forward because they see the
Speaker 2: way that this was destructive to themselves, their lives, their communities,
Speaker 2: et cetera. You had two competing philosophies, and you know,
Speaker 2: one of them, on the right, was successfully able to
Speaker 2: take over.
Speaker 1: The Republican Party.
Speaker 2: And now I could talk about like the fake populist
Speaker 2: aspects and how there's a lot of overlap actually.
Speaker 1: With Mitchell Colle et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 2: But you know, let's just leave that aside for the
Speaker 2: moment and the other one because it was so oppositional
Speaker 2: both to democratic elites but also to capital elites who backed.
Speaker 1: The party and own the networks and own the networks
Speaker 1: and all of that.
Speaker 2: And you know, the Jeff Bezos doesn't like and owns
Speaker 2: the loh and all of those things.
Speaker 1: They pulled down every stop.
Speaker 2: They could, both legitimate and illegitimate, to make sure that
Speaker 2: did not take root. And the vestiges of that, like
Speaker 2: the squad members that get elected to the House. Number one,
Speaker 2: they embrace too much of the like identitarian view and
Speaker 2: that makes them like not that popular. And number two,
Speaker 2: there has been just a war that you wrote a
Speaker 2: book about, waged on them to make sure that they
Speaker 2: either fall in line or they're kicked out, and so
Speaker 2: that's that's why I'm saying, like, yeah, I'm not. I
Speaker 2: think that a much better direction for the Democratic Party
Speaker 2: would be to look at the guy Bernie Sanders who
Speaker 2: was winning these coalitions and say, what can we learn
Speaker 2: from him? I have zero expectation that's what they will do.
Speaker 2: I think instead they will just be the like, kinder,
Speaker 2: gentler version of Trump.
Speaker 3: I think there will We'll see, all right, because I
Speaker 3: think there's still quite a bit of the identitarianism that
Speaker 3: is in the vestiges of MSNBC and CNN, which we're
Speaker 3: going to get to in a little bit. For their
Speaker 3: overall response, I think in general what we have seen
Speaker 3: with the popular vote and specifically actually this really is
Speaker 3: a question to the Republicans as to whether they can
Speaker 3: follow through. I mean, voters now basically been begging them
Speaker 3: for twenty years to shut the border and to stop immigration.
Speaker 3: So will they actually do it? I mean, you know,
Speaker 3: narrow house majority, we'll.
Speaker 1: See even with and it could deal with them on it.
Speaker 3: Not many call it right now.
Speaker 4: But if it's an if it's a deal, If it's
Speaker 4: a I mean.
Speaker 3: What is a gang of eight? Or the game is
Speaker 3: not going to fly like went need to see like actual,
Speaker 3: I mean, look, and this.
Speaker 6: Is with the budget under Obama. That's what this is
Speaker 6: going to be.
Speaker 3: Wed this like several weeks ago and I was like,
Speaker 3: I think if Trump wins, it will just be like
Speaker 3: quote it's immigration stupid. And I look increasingly just believe
Speaker 3: that because if you look at the tone of the
Speaker 3: campaign and behind every Donald Trump press conference, there was
Speaker 3: you know, in the stuff behind him, like for example,
Speaker 3: like the image right behind us. If you look at
Speaker 3: the I'm forgetting what the thing is called, Like whatever
Speaker 3: they put behind the candidate, it would be like n
Speaker 3: migrant crime and mass deportation. Remember at the RNC, the
Speaker 3: big the number one sign was literally just mass deportation.
Speaker 3: I'm like, okay, this is the uniting element of the
Speaker 3: entire Republican argument that went into this election. Now, is
Speaker 3: that the main reason they won? Maybe, but like I
Speaker 3: think very clearly it is the number one thing of
Speaker 3: why Donald Trump won twenty sixteen the primary, because he
Speaker 3: was the most vociferous on immigration and now has won
Speaker 3: a popular vote mandate in addition to a Republican advantage
Speaker 3: in the House and the Senate, likely at least for
Speaker 3: what we see right now. But The question of how
Speaker 3: that actually manifests an office is huge because this is
Speaker 3: what Crystal was just talking about. The capital, you know,
Speaker 3: pushed back to mass deportation and to immigration reform and
Speaker 3: Everify and all that. It is going to be crazy
Speaker 3: from what the I mean, the Chamber of Commerce and
Speaker 3: all these folks, they are licking their chops and they're
Speaker 3: ready to roll. They got billions of dollars to be
Speaker 3: ready to throw at Everify. They've also there's big questions
Speaker 3: here around the actual like how the Trump administration will
Speaker 3: staff itself and what it looks like. Is it going
Speaker 3: to look like the party that's just going to give
Speaker 3: Bill Ackman and elon his tax cuts and not follow
Speaker 3: through on immigration, because that's how you actually would lead
Speaker 3: to some sort of Bill Clinton what was it called,
Speaker 3: like the New Democratic Coalition put you know, the way
Speaker 3: that they could you know, the DLC, that's right, the DLC.
Speaker 3: How a DLC style like candidate would be able to
Speaker 3: come in And I would not necessarily bet against that.
Speaker 3: You know, corporatism is a deeply strong force, especially in
Speaker 3: the immigration lobby, and I do still think they could
Speaker 3: still win on this. Even though Donald Trump did win
Speaker 3: the election. Now, so it's a question actually of Republican
Speaker 3: governance and to what direction that looks like. But it's
Speaker 3: also a big question of the media elites and the
Speaker 3: Democratic Party for how they respond to it, because as
Speaker 3: you guys know, you know, you were both booted off
Speaker 3: basically have you seen we're talking about right now, you know,
Speaker 3: so they don't even have the bones for it like that,
Speaker 3: that institutional memory is gone, like it's it's it's what
Speaker 3: it's been almost a decade, you know, since that's happened
Speaker 3: to even to even acknowledge so many of the things
Speaker 3: that we've talked about here in the first hour on
Speaker 3: our show is we're boten, you know over there, except
Speaker 3: for like Joe Scarborough in a while, no sorry, Chris
Speaker 3: Matthews actually said some of this this what I'm what
Speaker 3: I'm talking about on immigration, but of course he framed
Speaker 3: in a very different way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's that's that's why I think that
Speaker 2: the Democrats are I mean, they're already their analysis is
Speaker 2: basically like we need to move to the right, like
Speaker 2: that's what we need to do, and specifically on the
Speaker 2: issue of immigration, and so you separated out from economics
Speaker 2: and that's the only that's the edit I would make
Speaker 2: is that, you know, as I was saying before trump
Speaker 2: Ism and the you know, right, populism, I'll use the
Speaker 2: that that label to keep from offending anybody. Right, Populism
Speaker 2: has a coherent ideology. It has a set of villains,
Speaker 2: one of those prominent villains being immigrants, and it has
Speaker 2: a set of victims. It has a collective like that
Speaker 2: you know that we're all in this together. And these
Speaker 2: are the groups, and it's predominantly you know, it's the
Speaker 2: deep state, it's cultural elites, which overlaps but is not
Speaker 2: entirely you know, consistent with rich people in capital.
Speaker 3: Yes, and it's immigrants, yell media and yeah.
Speaker 2: And the idea is like, these are the groups that
Speaker 2: are keeping you down, and that means economically, that means
Speaker 2: like they're the ones who are imposing things on your
Speaker 2: life that you don't like. They're changing your town, you're
Speaker 2: changing your culture, like whatever you're not happy with that's
Speaker 2: going on in your life, these are the people to blame.
Speaker 1: And so I don't think you can.
Speaker 2: I don't think you're wrong, Sagar that immigration is an
Speaker 2: important part of that, because that is part of what
Speaker 2: coheres the story. But it's not just I reject the
Speaker 2: idea you can neatly separate like that's a cultural issue
Speaker 2: and that's an economic issue. Voters said their number one
Speaker 2: issue was inflation economics, and I believe them, but I think,
Speaker 2: you know, Trump has presented this vision. I don't agree
Speaker 2: with it. I find it ugly. I think it's bad
Speaker 2: for the country. I think it's anti democratic. But he's
Speaker 2: presented a coherent vision for if we go after these people,
Speaker 2: your life is.
Speaker 1: Going to go get better.
Speaker 2: And Democrats rejected the alternative vision that was on offer
Speaker 2: from Bernie Sanders, and so I think all they really
Speaker 2: have left to do now, because they're not going to
Speaker 2: now be like you're right, Bernie, sorry, is to move
Speaker 2: right and try to you know, try to be the softler,
Speaker 2: gentler version of what's.
Speaker 1: On off of the Republicans.
Speaker 8: I'm curious for you a take, Okay, well, curious for
Speaker 8: a take on this real quick.
Speaker 7: Then well we just just ended on that thing.
Speaker 3: Well, go ahead, Emily, sound off, last time off to
Speaker 3: get to the dearborn mayor.
Speaker 4: All I was going to say is that immigration is
Speaker 4: the issue and Republicans, and you know, to some except
Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders understood this on other issues. It is the
Speaker 4: bridge between economics and culture. And Bernie understood that in
Speaker 4: terms of like tax cuts for the rich and all
Speaker 4: of it, Like there are these points that are you know,
Speaker 4: Occupy Wall Street was not just an economic movement, that
Speaker 4: was a cultural movement. That Tea Party was not an
Speaker 4: economic movement. It was a cultural movement. That's what Bernie
Speaker 4: Sanders understood. And so Ryan, just a quick flashback to
Speaker 4: twenty twenty two midterms.
Speaker 6: We were interviewing Terry Schilling. He runs a group called
Speaker 6: the American Principles.
Speaker 4: Project that was running up ads all over the suburbs
Speaker 4: on trans issues.
Speaker 6: Remember that.
Speaker 4: They them add that a lot of Republicans were running
Speaker 4: in swing districts and Trump was running.
Speaker 6: In fact, he said that was working.
Speaker 4: And when we're looking at low propensity voters coming out
Speaker 4: in a big way. It wasn't enough in the midterms
Speaker 4: obviously for the red wave, but in this election we
Speaker 4: had a big turnout. It looks like low propensity voters
Speaker 4: voters Trump made massive improvement. As Jeff Stein says, with
Speaker 4: voters under fifty thousand dollars, that is not just an
Speaker 4: income that is not just about the economics, that is,
Speaker 4: about the marriage of economics and culture that Donald Trump
Speaker 4: understands in a way that Ron De Santis and Nicky
Speaker 4: Hayley and other Republicans don't, and in a way that
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris absolutely could not tap into either.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that that's very true, and you're not wrong, Crystal.
Speaker 3: A lot of it is separate. But as I often say,
Speaker 3: and you know, people get mad at me as like,
Speaker 3: I don't believe a lot of voters sometimes whenever they
Speaker 3: talk either because you know, people say, oh, democracy or
Speaker 3: economic and you know, when one services as economic, like
Speaker 3: what are they really trying to get at it? And
Speaker 3: I just think the beating heart of trump Ism is
Speaker 3: you know, you even use the word right, populism. I
Speaker 3: don't even know if that's accurate. I think it's just
Speaker 3: straight up nationalism at this point, Like that's what it is.
Speaker 3: We have literally autarchic trade policy, like mercantilist eighteenth century philosophy,
Speaker 3: we have anti you know, immigration in terms of populist
Speaker 3: it's a flavor of it though. And so when I
Speaker 3: say nationalism, saying the coherence between it and like what
Speaker 3: actually separates all of that is specifically what you just
Speaker 3: said with the cultural elite of where there may be
Speaker 3: some overlap, but is genuinely distinct and cltically the average
Speaker 3: guy on the street, he knows what I mean whenever
Speaker 3: we're talking about the Hollywood elite or the people who
Speaker 3: decided to come out and to vote for Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: And so I think that actually and whether it is
Speaker 3: able to be fulfilled in legislation, which is the ultimate
Speaker 3: big question mark for me, because I have, you know,
Speaker 3: I know a lot of people who are very pro Trump.
Speaker 3: We met some of them yesterday, Ryan, and they're very enthusiastic,
Speaker 3: And I remember telling you as we were leaving, I
Speaker 3: was like, listen, bro I was here in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 3: and I remember this whole thing and didn't work out
Speaker 3: so well for a lot of those folks on that point,
Speaker 3: because there's this relationship between the culture and the economics,
Speaker 3: such a imagine four years from now people are still angry,
Speaker 3: Like I feel like the only hope that Democrats have
Speaker 3: is baked into the fact that Republicans also suck and
Speaker 3: that they are not and our system sucks and it's
Speaker 3: not going to be able to deliver anything. There makes
Speaker 3: anybody happier four years from now and feeding them immigration
Speaker 3: stuff four years from now and beating up on CNN
Speaker 3: and MSNBC isn't going to satisfy the it's when they're
Speaker 3: the governing. What dem should pray for is a repeat
Speaker 3: of two thousand in seventeen twenty eighteen, where Trump fails
Speaker 3: on immigration, fails on the border wall, and his only
Speaker 3: accomplishment is to just pass max tax cut for corporation
Speaker 3: to enrich people, right, Like, that's what they should pray
Speaker 3: on on their hands and knees for just making sure
Speaker 3: that the only corporatism basically succeeds and it becomes some
Speaker 3: sort of major giveaway that leads to a lot of
Speaker 3: deep satisfaction in there. If he does accomplish a lot
Speaker 3: of this stuff, it's going to be a problem they're
Speaker 3: going to do.
Speaker 8: If he does shut down immigration, he will drive up
Speaker 8: prices for one.
Speaker 7: But two then he will also then he'll then he'll take.
Speaker 8: Then he'll take away that that arrow as well, Like,
Speaker 8: how do you like it's possible?
Speaker 3: I mean, look, first of all, yeah, anyway, go ahead.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean in the short like, if he enacts
Speaker 2: his agenda, his stated agenda, we've had this debate many times.
Speaker 8: He he won't do that, Like he's he's gonna have
Speaker 8: Lightheiser back in the pink.
Speaker 2: He'll be fun huge number of tariffs, mass deportation, mass austerity,
Speaker 2: which is.
Speaker 1: The Elon Plan, splashing the bureaucracy.
Speaker 3: It would be.
Speaker 2: A economic catash catastrophe, right, Prices would skyrocket across the board,
Speaker 2: housing people, works about all that stuff right now, Do
Speaker 2: you're right? Do I think that he's actually going to
Speaker 2: like do all of that stuff? No, But you know,
Speaker 2: I think I think Ryan's point is an apt one,
Speaker 2: which is why, like I'm not, I don't feel like
Speaker 2: this is doom and gloom for the Democratic Party because
Speaker 2: I think there's a very good chance that, especially next
Speaker 2: time around, it's not going to be Trump.
Speaker 1: Making the case.
Speaker 2: It's going to be JdE Vance probably who you know,
Speaker 2: hasn't shown the same electoral prowess as Donald Trump has,
Speaker 2: who's just this like uniquely charismatic figure.
Speaker 1: So in any case, sure, but you.
Speaker 2: Know, in any case, it may be tougher for him
Speaker 2: because then he has to defend trump Ism and the
Speaker 2: people who have had to do that have not buy
Speaker 2: and large done all that well too, are not themselves done.
Speaker 3: It's a tough position. You basically find himself like HW
Speaker 3: and the Reagan consensus. You want to be a different person,
Speaker 3: but you also have to defend like Reagan. It was
Speaker 3: very complicated and part of the reason why he ended
Speaker 3: up losing the BA