1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:02,120 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready. 2 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 2: Or not, twenty twenty four is here, and we here 3 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 2: at breaking points, are already thinking of ways we can 4 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 2: up our game for this critical election. 5 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 3: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade 6 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 3: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent 7 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 3: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, 8 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 3: it just means the absolute world to have your support. 9 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 3: But enough with that, Let's get to the show. Donald D. 10 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 3: Trump officially declared president of the president elect of the 11 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 3: United States. He won the election last night. The AP 12 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 3: called the race around four in the morning or so. 13 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 3: He took to the stage roughly around two thirty to 14 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 3: declare victory in a speech. We have some of that speech. 15 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 3: This is the correct one this time. Let's take a 16 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 3: listen and let's queue it up and watch. 17 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 4: Well. 18 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 5: I want to thank you all very much. This is great. 19 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 5: These are our friends. We have thousands of friends in 20 00:00:54,560 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 5: this incredible movement. This is a movement nobody's ever seen before. 21 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 5: And frankly, this was I believe the greatest political movement 22 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 5: of all time. There's ever been anything like this in 23 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 5: this country and maybe the all and now it's going 24 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 5: to reach a new level of importance because we're going 25 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 5: to help our country heal. We're going to help our 26 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 5: country here. 27 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 3: We have a. 28 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 5: Country that needs help, and it needs help very badly. 29 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 5: We're going to fix our borders, We're going to fix 30 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 5: everything about our country. And we made history for a 31 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 5: reason tonight, and the reason is going to be just 32 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 5: that we overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible and it 33 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 5: is now clear that we've achieved the most incredible political 34 00:01:54,160 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 5: they look, what happened? Is this crazy? But it's a 35 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 5: political victory that our country has never seen before, nothing 36 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 5: like this. I want to thank the American people for 37 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 5: the extraordinary honor of being elected your forty seventh president. 38 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 6: And you are forty fifth president, and. 39 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 5: Every citizen, I will fight for you, for your family 40 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 5: and your future. Every single day I will be fighting 41 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 5: for you, and with every breath in my body, I 42 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 5: will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe, 43 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 5: and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. 44 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 3: So there we go. That was the victory. Speech continued 45 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 3: for a little bit while Kamala Harris will be giving 46 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 3: her concession a little bit later today. Guys, we can 47 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 3: put that up on the screen. Roughly around four pm 48 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,679 Speaker 3: Eastern time here in Washington from Howard University, where she 49 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 3: spent some of election night at her party on Tuesday, 50 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 3: decided the news leaked out roughly around two am that 51 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 3: she wouldn't be taking the stage to give her concession 52 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,639 Speaker 3: at that time. But yeah, I mean yeah, for those 53 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 3: who were not watching live, we had a fun like 54 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 3: you know, joke about the fact is the right is 55 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 3: very upset that she is not giving a concession. And 56 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 3: I mean, like, on principle, I do agree that she's 57 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 3: just conceded like last night and or this morning, like 58 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 3: Hillary Clinton. But yeah, she's decided to drag it out 59 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 3: a little bit. Also, we have never heard a word 60 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:33,959 Speaker 3: from the White House. The pile weren't crazy. 61 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 7: The people weren't. 62 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 8: Therefore, sorry, God, let let him hear our decent counter, 63 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 8: which is that be my guest. Trump still to this 64 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 8: day has given his concession speech for twenty twenty. 65 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 3: Well now he doesn't have to. Now he never has. 66 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 7: He should give one the time. 67 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 3: What does he have Towell? 68 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 8: You know what, I actually I actually did lose in 69 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 8: twenty twenty. 70 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 1: It was just what did he say? It was being 71 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 1: sarcastic or something. 72 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 2: He was being sarcastic, Yeah, because he did act she 73 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 2: sort of kind of admit that he lost. And then 74 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: when he got asked about it the debate, he was like, 75 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 2: I wasn't being real. That was just now he could 76 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:08,839 Speaker 2: do the reverse if you like, that will stop this deal. 77 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 1: So that wasn't I didn't mean it anyway. 78 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 3: It's over. 79 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 4: But I will say this is legitimately a huge lingering 80 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 4: question for the MAGA right, which poured millions of dollars 81 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 4: everyone knows. I mean, if you were in the conservative 82 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 4: space for the last couple of years, all the donor 83 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 4: energy and money was behind election integrity, and they were. 84 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 4: Yesterday Donald Trump was saying, he's pointing to alleged I 85 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 4: regularities all over the country, and so this is going 86 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,919 Speaker 4: to be a huge, huge question, did it. Are they 87 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 4: going to claim that the election integrity counter efforts worked? 88 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 6: I mean, seriously, let's all be honest. 89 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 2: But this is actually the part I woant to elaborate 90 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 2: on because I was just on Peers Morgan with that 91 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 2: guy Vinni from PbD and he was saying, all this 92 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 2: the number one priority and the Trump administration needs to 93 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 2: be election integrity because the Democrats flew all these illegals 94 00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 2: into swing states blah blah blah. 95 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: It's like, well, if they did. 96 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 2: That, why didn't it deliver form like what happened. 97 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 3: Trump? 98 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 2: That's it the Latino shifts like you ended up winning them. 99 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 2: So I guess you're welcome. 100 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 3: So we do have an element that I think really 101 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 3: hammers home just how titanic of an election this was. 102 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and put the at Financial Times chart 103 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 3: please on the screen. It's in the rundown called the 104 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 3: red wave chart. And basically Donald Trump gained ground in 105 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 3: all forty eight out of fifty states or Washington, Utah 106 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 3: and Washington where he did not improve his performance from 107 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 3: last time around. 108 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 2: And if you look at the map like coast to coast, 109 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 2: I mean it is just a siege. That Washington Post 110 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 2: map we kept pulling up last night and referring to 111 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 2: that shows the shifts in every county. It's like just 112 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 2: a wash in red. And so it wasn't just the 113 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,719 Speaker 2: biggest ships were among some of the demographic groups we 114 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 2: talked about, Latinos in particular. 115 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 3: That's the big the big thing of the pro demographic two. 116 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 2: You know, young Men and jen x Men actually were 117 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 2: big showed up big for Donald Trump as well. 118 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:09,039 Speaker 6: Jen x Men. That sounds like a TV show, a 119 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 6: really bad one, Yeah, coming to TV land. 120 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: But you know, the games were almost across the board. 121 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,599 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it really was every demographic. 122 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, and so it makes it very hard to you know, 123 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 2: so we're going to react to some of the media 124 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 2: stuff later, but it makes it very hard to feel like, oh, 125 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 2: it was you know, Arab Americans, it was this, It 126 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 2: was that. It really was a sort of national movement repudiation, 127 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 2: which I think, you know, also makes it more difficult 128 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 2: for liberals and Democratic Party supporters in certain ways to 129 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 2: deal with in twenty sixteen, because twenty sixteen it was 130 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 2: like call me Russia, sexism. 131 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,160 Speaker 1: She didn't go to Wisconsin. Next time we'll get them. 132 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, this time, it's like holy shit, yep, yeah, you. 133 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 3: Know what, Now we have our election guru, Logan. By 134 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 3: the way, we're going to bring Logan in here, now, 135 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 3: go ahead, Logan. 136 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:58,359 Speaker 9: I think you're right about that, Crystal, and this is 137 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 9: a tough day if you're a Democrat. But I also 138 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 9: would say there's been like five times in the last 139 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 9: twenty four to twenty eight years where a party thought 140 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 9: they were completely out after a bad election, you know, 141 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 9: from nineteen ninety six for Republicans to after nine to 142 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 9: eleven and two thousand and four Democrats thinking they were 143 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 9: hopeless Publicans feeling hopeless in a way like we just 144 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 9: go through this all the time, and I'm just starting 145 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 9: the list, but I'm gonna finish that. 146 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 3: Some one, well what were you, Well, no, you're not 147 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 3: wrong that we should This is not this is not 148 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 3: an obituary forever, but it is a near term problem. 149 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 3: Like it's a shake problem, not only problem, it's a 150 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 3: narrative buster in so many ways. Like we have the 151 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 3: Latino men who over they went majority for Donald Trump. 152 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 3: We had white suburban women who they bet the house 153 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 3: on who also went majority for Donald Trump. So we 154 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 3: did see an overall increase in some of the female vote. 155 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 3: But one of the things actually that was incorrect was 156 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 3: this idea that the gender gap was going to be 157 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 3: exclusive amongst Gen zs. Not Actually it was just roughly 158 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 3: around twenty points, which is normal. It was just up 159 00:07:57,920 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 3: and down the chain all the way from senior men 160 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 3: to senior women. 161 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 6: Total mirror image. 162 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 3: Absolutely in terms of the retrospective too. It's really interesting, 163 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 3: you know, thinking about polls and modeling and kind of 164 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 3: like what went wrong here. I haven't looked at the 165 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 3: exact number, but I believe that the poll on average 166 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 3: in the battleground states off by about three point five 167 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 3: percent away from Donald Trump's direction. But really the big 168 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 3: failure here, no offense, logan, because it's not your fault, 169 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 3: but it's everybody for all of the modelers was they 170 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 3: simply had no idea how to facilitate a model where 171 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 3: you had such major independent, young voter, Latino voter, and 172 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 3: even black mail voters all breaking for Trump in a 173 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 3: way that they have never voted before in modern history. 174 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 3: So curious. 175 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, and let me toss that to you look at 176 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 4: it with a slight defense as well, like counter to 177 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 4: sagers that if we're looking at like the RCP battleground 178 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 4: averages and going back to where they actually ended up, 179 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:54,319 Speaker 4: it was still these counts in these states, it's looking 180 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 4: like it is marginal. To be fair, it's looking like 181 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 4: maybe a three point victory in Pennsylvania. 182 00:08:58,760 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 6: What a one point. 183 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 3: Five that's pretty big, you know, but I mean based on. 184 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: Where the poll was a margin of error. 185 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly. 186 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: You know, if if you had a bunch of polls that. 187 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 2: Were like Ti trumpless one hot one, you're looking at 188 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 2: a margin of er kind of race. 189 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I say it's on the on the outer bound 190 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 3: to that, right, but not in like Wisconsin. 191 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 4: So if we're looking at Wisconsin, if we're looking at 192 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:21,959 Speaker 4: I guess Georgia and North Carolina is looking more likely Pennsylvania, Michigan. 193 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 4: So logan, I mean, what does that tell us about 194 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 4: how well or how poorly the posters actually performed here? 195 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,439 Speaker 9: I think the posters did an okay job when it 196 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 9: came to showing the shape of the electorate or the 197 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 9: shape of the election, I should say in that they 198 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 9: were saying, hey, the swing states, they're way more competitive 199 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 9: than the popular vote would suggest. And the popular vote 200 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 9: ended up, you know out Democrats ended about right losing it. 201 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 9: But you know it could be to the point that 202 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:49,079 Speaker 9: even a one percent loss for Democrats could lead to 203 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 9: a popular to an electoral college victory. And really what 204 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,599 Speaker 9: happened is was just a few points off. But this 205 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 9: shape was roughly right. 206 00:09:58,559 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 2: I mean, they did pick up some of the trend, 207 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,319 Speaker 2: you know, the Latino shift, ye, the African American shift. 208 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 6: The gender gun. 209 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there were us from there. 210 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 2: But I think you just have to say, after three 211 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 2: election cycles of Trump outperforming the polls, that they just 212 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 2: can't totally capture his coltion exactly. And so the ones 213 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 2: that were like trying to clude like, well, we're just 214 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 2: gonna spot them a few points in Hinzeier, well, I 215 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 2: guess that was the right thing to do. 216 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 4: Well. 217 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 3: Also, it's a couple of things because it's not only 218 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 3: was his strength and rural voters so strong last night, 219 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 3: it was his ability to drive it out everywhere across 220 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,319 Speaker 3: the board. So I have some fascinating numbers that actually 221 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 3: show his blue state strength, which is, by the way, 222 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 3: this is crazy just for popular vote purposes considering that 223 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 3: he won that, but also for how the GOP will 224 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 3: conceive of itself in the future. So in New York, 225 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 3: for example, it went from Democrat plus twenty three to 226 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 3: Democrat plus twelve. So that's almost what a twelve points wing. 227 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,679 Speaker 3: Almost New Jersey went from D sixteen to D plus four. 228 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 3: It's only a four point margin. In Massachusetts D thirty three, 229 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 3: D twenty six, Rhode Island went D twenty three D thirteen. 230 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 3: Connecticut d two eight, Vermont thirty six thirty two, that's 231 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 3: the only one that state, relatively flat Maryland even had 232 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,719 Speaker 3: a ten point swing towards Donald Trump, and even Joe 233 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:09,839 Speaker 3: Biden's home state of Delaware had a five point swing 234 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 3: towards Trump. So one policy implication I tweeted this morning is, 235 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 3: by the way, Salt Cap, it's back on the table. 236 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 3: There's no way if you blow it out like this 237 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,559 Speaker 3: and you win. I think he did better in the 238 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 3: City of New York, in Manhattan than any Republican since 239 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 3: like nineteen ninety two something like that. Over thirty years, 240 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 3: actually in AOC's district in the Bronx increased his Hispanic 241 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 3: vote share. So I mean, it's just wild if you 242 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 3: look at all of the if anything, to me, the 243 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 3: swing state swing, the demos there and the movement is 244 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 3: even less interesting than a lot of this stuff happening 245 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 3: in California, in New York. In Texas, for example, we 246 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 3: saw Star County, the most Latino county in the entire state, 247 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 3: swing towards Donald Trump. I think it's a fifty or 248 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 3: sixty point swing from how they voted in twenty sixteen. 249 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:01,199 Speaker 3: So I mean that is to me true like shocking thing. 250 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 3: And you know, the only mistake I think I made 251 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 3: in my election prediction was not betting hard enough on 252 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 3: the Latino realignment, remember, because that was my justification. I 253 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 3: was like, well, it's gonna be a problem and all 254 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 3: of this. But to be honest, a lot of these 255 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 3: traditional political people, like our posters, people like Anne Seltzer, 256 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 3: I mean, she was wrong by what fift something. 257 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 4: It's like the Marquette No, this is like the it's 258 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 4: like the Marquette Pole twenty no. 259 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 6: No, but this is the Marquette poles. 260 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 4: Talk about Moody Day indicated alive totally. 261 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 6: Maybe no, no, no, no. 262 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 4: It reminds me of when the Marquette Pole came out 263 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 4: in twenty twenty. Everyone in DC thinks of the Market 264 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 4: Pole as the quote unquote gold standard. People Wisconsin are 265 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 4: very proud of it. I've seen it be wrong many times. 266 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 4: And that market pole that had Biden up at like 267 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 4: fourteen points in twenty twenty. He won the state in Wisconsin, 268 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 4: but it was not a fourteen point victory, right, And 269 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 4: so there's something really wrong in some of those polls 270 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 4: that led I mean, I think women This is probably 271 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 4: one of the interesting stories to come out of it 272 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 4: is if you're looking again at suburban Atlantis and Milwaukee, 273 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 4: Trump did. 274 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 6: He just did better with women than people expect it. 275 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:07,559 Speaker 2: So let me say what I think happened, and also 276 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 2: why I got it so wrong, because I think I 277 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 2: overlearned the lesson of twenty twenty two, where we were 278 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 2: going in like this is going to be a run, 279 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:15,679 Speaker 2: where like. 280 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:18,679 Speaker 1: It is a wrap. Look at these numbers, the economic numbers. 281 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 2: Inflation's bad, Biden's unpopular, like this is going to be 282 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 2: a bloodbath, and Republicans won the popular vote, but it wasn't, 283 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 2: and you know, bucked historic trends. 284 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: Democrats really outperform. 285 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 2: And you look at, you know, at who did the worst, 286 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 2: and it was people who were really bad on abortion 287 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: and states that had you know, abortion as a live issue, 288 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,439 Speaker 2: and you also had, you know, this issue of extremism 289 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 2: and the stop the steel can a people like carry playing, 290 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 2: et cetera. And so you look at that and I'm like, oh, 291 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 2: I need to adjust my view because I previously was saying, 292 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 2: like this stuff is not really a good thing to 293 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 2: run on. Stick to the bread and butter economics, populist economics, 294 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,319 Speaker 2: like that's been the mantra, I look at twenty twenty two, 295 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 2: I'm like, my view was wrong, so I need to adjust, 296 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 2: Like these issues are more important to people than I 297 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 2: thought they would, and wrote really reshape the electorate in 298 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 2: a way that was much more precipitous than I expected. 299 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,680 Speaker 2: But you have two things that are different in twenty 300 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 2: three things. Number hopefully I can remember three. Given that 301 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 2: number one high. 302 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 3: We're actually tired. I'MI like Rick Perry, who was just 303 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 3: on painkillers at the time. 304 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 6: I don't know what Ryan's over there. 305 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 3: Number One. 306 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 2: Difference between general electorate and midterm definitely right, so much 307 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 2: broader turnout. You know, in twenty twenty two the ladies 308 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 2: were fired up. 309 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 6: About abortion, low propensity voters. 310 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 9: Yeah. 311 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 2: Number two, that's exactly right. Number two, you just have 312 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 2: more distance between these events. 313 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 3: And now, right it's been several years. 314 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 2: Number Three, the Donald Trump effect, Like we're just talking 315 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 2: before about the how he overperformed every Republican. I mean, 316 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 2: Carrie Lake is still going to lose again even in 317 00:14:56,480 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 2: a Republican wave year because other republic he listen, you know, Kamala, 318 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 2: I'm going to I'm going to give the Democrats a 319 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 2: hard time here in a moment, but you also have 320 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 2: to give him his credit that he is a uniquely compelling, 321 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 2: charismatic figure, and that may be some I mean, you know, 322 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 2: that may be something Republicans have to grapple with in 323 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 2: the future, given this will be his you know, last 324 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 2: term in office. But you know, as I was thinking about, okay, well, 325 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 2: what went wrong here? And you could certainly pinpoint, you know, 326 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 2: micro campaign decisions that I think are consequential, the choice 327 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 2: of like Mark Cuban and Liz Cheney over like Bernie 328 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 2: Sanders and Sean Fame as those two different you know, 329 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 2: potential directions and who you're signaling to. And you did see, Hey, Kamala, 330 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 2: she won voters over who make over one hundred thousand dollars. 331 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: So this all play it into. 332 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 2: The view that, oh, this is the party of like 333 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 2: the well off and the rich and these elite concerns, 334 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 2: et cetera. But I really think it's almost unfair to 335 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 2: her to lay it all at her feet, because the 336 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 2: truth of the matter is, I think the Democratic Party 337 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 2: has screwed themselves ever since they've blocked Bernie Sanders back 338 00:15:57,920 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 2: in twenty sixteen. 339 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 1: And I know this sounds like ultimately it's no. 340 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 2: It's an interesting take, but the reality is that the 341 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 2: neoliberal era is dead, and trump Ism represents the right 342 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 2: wing response to that. It's a response I disagree with. 343 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 2: I think it scapegoats the wrong people. I think it's 344 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 2: bad for the country. I think it's anti democratic, But 345 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 2: it represents a coherent vision. 346 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: On the left. In the democratic side, they moved heaven and. 347 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 2: Earth to block the left wing populist response to the 348 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 2: death of neoliberalism and the manifest failures of neoliberalism. And 349 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 2: so you ask yourself, okay, well, you know what would 350 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 2: be the evidence for this? And when I think about it, 351 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 2: like who were the parts of Bernie Sanders coalition, Like 352 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 2: where he was the strongest Latinos, working class bros. 353 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 4: Like AOC's district looks right now according to Ryan Gardusky, 354 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 4: like it is having one of the biggest wings towards 355 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 4: Trump right in the country. 356 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 2: Literally, you know, literally Joe Rogan right, and those are 357 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 2: all the people who who are fleeing the fastest. So 358 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 2: you know, previously, this idea that was put out by 359 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 2: liberals of like the Bernie de Trump pipeline as a 360 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 2: way of deriding the Bernie Sanders movement and saying, oh, 361 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 2: this is just like a sort of glorified like way 362 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 2: to you know, to actually shift people to the right. 363 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 3: That was wrong. 364 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 1: But what is. 365 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:21,399 Speaker 2: Correct is that many people when they who were Bernie 366 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,719 Speaker 2: Sanders part of that coalition, have gone to Trump. And 367 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 2: the other thing you can say about that is that 368 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 2: only thing you can never know if that like alternative 369 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 2: left populist vision would be able to defeat the you know, 370 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 2: right populace. 371 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: I would say authoritarian vision. 372 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 2: But you do know that at the time when there 373 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,439 Speaker 2: was an ongoing choice between the Bernie Sanders model and 374 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 2: the Trump model, those voters were going with the Bernie 375 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,959 Speaker 2: Sanders model. So I think Democrats by completely blunting that 376 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:49,360 Speaker 2: movement insulting the earth. 377 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 1: And Ryan has written. 378 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 2: Literally the book about how that worked, not just with 379 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 2: Bernie but with the squad and with all of that. 380 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 2: By really blocking that movement insulting the earth, they have 381 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 2: screwed themselves. And you know, I want to say, like 382 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 2: Biden has had in his administration some important breaks from 383 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 2: the neoliberal era, Kamala ran some populist economic ads like 384 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 2: really focused on that. So it's not like they've done nothing. 385 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 2: But you cannot say what a coherent Kamala Harris vision, 386 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 2: like post neoliberal vision is because ultimately she is a neoliberal. 387 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,360 Speaker 2: All these people are, and that's what the you know, 388 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 2: Mark Cuban and the I won't say what I'm going 389 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 2: to do on Lena Kahan and the embrace of Liz Cheney. 390 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 1: That's what that all communicates. 391 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 6: And Tim Walls and Ryan, what do you make of this? 392 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 4: Because I remember you guys were like feeling very happy 393 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 4: with the Tim Walls because it signaled a sort of 394 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 4: a bone to the burning braide, who said, let's run 395 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 4: boldly on full progressive policies and not run in the 396 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 4: opposite direction the milk past. Let's go all in bold colors, 397 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,439 Speaker 4: not pal pest point, Ronald Reagan said. 398 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 6: From the right. 399 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 7: So her polling at that point was like four or 400 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 7: five points. 401 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: That was when it was. 402 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, and well was she though? 403 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 3: That's the that's the end. The ultimate question is whether 404 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 3: any of her polling collapsed. 405 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,199 Speaker 7: Yeah, over the next we did see that. 406 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 2: I Mean, here's the thing is, no one can say 407 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:07,200 Speaker 2: for sure, but you can say at that point there 408 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 2: was a lot more energy and excitement around the canteen. 409 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:12,360 Speaker 2: You can say, also, you know, Tim Walls right after 410 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 2: he got selected, and he went on I think it 411 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 2: was with Azraklin actually and was like, I think we 412 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 2: need to do paid family leave. 413 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: As a first act, and then you never heard about it. 414 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 3: Again. 415 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 2: Part of why people like Ryan and I were excited 416 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 2: is because Tim Walls came with this sort of like 417 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 2: package agenda, which was basically the parts of build back 418 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 2: Better that didn't get done and wasn't the Bernie Sanders' agenda, no, 419 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 2: but it was something like it was Okay, I can 420 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 2: and I can sink my teeth into this, I can 421 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 2: understand how this would relate to my family. And again, 422 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 2: I don't want to discount they ran a lot of 423 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 2: ads on some solid economic plans, but that was not 424 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 2: foregrounded in terms. 425 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 1: Of the media conversation. 426 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 2: I actually think that the earned media piece, which was 427 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 2: war focused around Liz Cheney, democracy, et cetera, ended up 428 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,640 Speaker 2: being much more significant than what any of the paid 429 00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 2: ads were. 430 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 3: Look At the results in Minnesota, like Donald Kamala will 431 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 3: win Minnesota by the margin that Donald Trump won the 432 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 3: state of Pennsylvania. That's nuts, you know, considering the Tim 433 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,120 Speaker 3: Walls pick and what that ultimately means. I do think 434 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 3: you know, to a certain extent, it's difficult to diagnose it. 435 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 3: I think twenty sixteen definitely is the demarcation point. How though, 436 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 3: you know, I really can't think of anyone but Andrew 437 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 3: Breitbart right now in terms of politics is downstream from culture, 438 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 3: and like, the truth is, like twenty sixteen was a 439 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 3: major cultural demarcation point in which the Democratic elites and 440 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 3: others like pioneered and decided to like really focus on 441 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 3: identity politics as the way to defeat Donald Trumps. And 442 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 3: it's their explanation defeating. 443 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: Their say it was actually to defeat Bernie. 444 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:48,680 Speaker 2: The sloppy media conversation is like, oh, the left is 445 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 2: responsible for all this cancel culture and wokeness and identity obsession. 446 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 2: The reality is this was a tactic used by Hillary 447 00:20:56,560 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 2: Clinton and her allies to you know, and like Bernie 448 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 2: Sanders was a racist and sexist because he talked in 449 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 2: class versus universalist language versus fixating on different demographic groups. 450 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 8: Yeah, and one thing people don't quite realiz I don't 451 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 8: think is that Democrats kind of jiu jitsued themselves into 452 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 8: an unelectable position by their embrace of identity politics in 453 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 8: an effort to target Bernie Sanders. In other words, Hillary 454 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 8: Clinton made the She sensed that there was something populist 455 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 8: going on, that people were angry about something, and that 456 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:30,959 Speaker 8: the left was kind of a sndment within the party, 457 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:35,199 Speaker 8: and she decided that instead of saying, look, I'm the 458 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 8: electable candidate I have, I'm more experienced, and I'm going 459 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 8: to beat whoever the Republican is, she decided, bizarrely in 460 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 8: the Democratic primary that she was going to claim that 461 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 8: she was actually the one that was on the left, 462 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 8: that was on the left, the left of Bernie Sanders, 463 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 8: because Bernie Sanders is out of step with the rise 464 00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 8: of what they called the Great Awokening at the time. 465 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 1: Breaking up she. 466 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 2: Said, breaking up the big banks won't end racism. 467 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,719 Speaker 8: And that's the start of my book of her saying 468 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 8: that Bernie Sanders is a single issue candidate and his 469 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,679 Speaker 8: single issue was the economy, and then she goes in 470 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 8: breaking up the banks won't and sexism and won't then 471 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 8: raise it, and so you then had this interesting perception 472 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 8: where a bunch of people in the primaries actually thought 473 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:27,399 Speaker 8: Bernie Sanders was more moderate than he was because Hillary 474 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 8: Clinton was attacking him from this woke left right, And 475 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 8: so when people now say that Kamala Harris was too 476 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,399 Speaker 8: far left, they're referring to that. And so that's how 477 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:42,720 Speaker 8: they jiu jitsued themselves into this position of taking positions 478 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 8: that are unpopular on the economy and kind of pragmatic, 479 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 8: as Kamala Harris would call it, but basically, you know, 480 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 8: friendly to Wall Street and friendly to business, but still 481 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 8: being pegged as too far left in ways that nobody 482 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:56,679 Speaker 8: actually wanted. 483 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 3: I'm curious, I'm curious of the identitarian left will be 484 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,159 Speaker 3: dealt like they've been sass okay, but maybe Ryan, I mean, 485 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,199 Speaker 3: these are very very powerful, but will they see it 486 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 3: that way? Will they see it that way? 487 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 7: And what's the guy's name? 488 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 3: Ellie Misel? Is that his name? Yeah, so you know 489 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 3: already being like, oh the Latino, I mean, let our 490 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 3: black Ryan's right, they've. 491 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 2: Been routed because I think even how Kamala ran this campaign, 492 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 2: like she did not talk at all about. 493 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 1: Like I'm a black woman and here's blah blah blah. 494 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 3: She only had the hens still paid the price for and. 495 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 2: They also, yeah, she had the hangover of it. That's 496 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 2: exactly right. And also I mean already if you look 497 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,919 Speaker 2: at all the commentary on Morning Shoe and whatever. This 498 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 2: is what they're blaming that, and you know, any other 499 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 2: position that they could characterize as coming from the left, 500 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,439 Speaker 2: and you know, in terms of the future electoral prospects, 501 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,239 Speaker 2: like I think Logan's point is apt. Like, you know, 502 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 2: to go back to when Democrats were in the wilderness 503 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 2: after the Ronald Reagan era and George hw Bush and 504 00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 2: they thought, God. 505 00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:58,919 Speaker 1: We may never be able to win again. 506 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 2: What their response was just to basically adopt the Republican framework. 507 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 2: And I personally think we're already seeing that being the 508 00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 2: response from the Democrats. That's what embracing effectively the Republican 509 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 2: view on immigration. I know you guys might dispute that, 510 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:15,439 Speaker 2: but that's the reality. Is ditching the idea of a 511 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 2: path to citizenship, that's what that looks like. You know, 512 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,359 Speaker 2: Gavin Newsom, who was the most ambitious person in the 513 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 2: entire world, is out there saying, hey, I'm going to 514 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 2: go and personally raise homeless encampments and signed tough on 515 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 2: crime legislation into law. So I think the response from 516 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 2: the Democratic Party is going to be to help to 517 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 2: cement in the same way Bill Clinton helped to cement 518 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:38,919 Speaker 2: the neoliberal era. I think it's going to be to 519 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 2: help to cement this sort of right wing populous. 520 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 7: Running out of things that can hit him on. 521 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 3: He just won the popular vote on this. Also, Gascon 522 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 3: in Los Angeles just got blown out, and the Gatskan 523 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,679 Speaker 3: is one of those progressive das. So I think what I'm. 524 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 2: Saying, I'm saying they won, like this is what we 525 00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:02,439 Speaker 2: need to do, because we would rather do that than 526 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 2: like there's almost no going back for them to that 527 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders moment to offer the alternative, like left populist vision. 528 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 2: So what I'm saying basically is like, you know, the 529 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,440 Speaker 2: reason I'm depressed is not because I don't think Democrats 530 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 2: will ever win. 531 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: I don't really give a shit that much about whether 532 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: Democrats win again. 533 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 2: It's because I think the ideological battle is basically done. 534 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:24,919 Speaker 6: Like there was a. 535 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 2: Question after the financial crisis. You know, there was this 536 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,640 Speaker 2: this stirring of popular sentiment on the left and the right, 537 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 2: and there were truly competing visions for Okay, neoliberalism, Like 538 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 2: people are rejecting it and we're you know, there needs 539 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,720 Speaker 2: to be something different moving forward because they see the 540 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 2: way that this was destructive to themselves, their lives, their communities, 541 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 2: et cetera. You had two competing philosophies, and you know, 542 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 2: one of them, on the right, was successfully able to 543 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 2: take over. 544 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:53,440 Speaker 1: The Republican Party. 545 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,120 Speaker 2: And now I could talk about like the fake populist 546 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,160 Speaker 2: aspects and how there's a lot of overlap actually. 547 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,160 Speaker 1: With Mitchell Colle et cetera, et cetera. 548 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 2: But you know, let's just leave that aside for the 549 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:04,440 Speaker 2: moment and the other one because it was so oppositional 550 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:08,640 Speaker 2: both to democratic elites but also to capital elites who backed. 551 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 1: The party and own the networks and own the networks 552 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:11,719 Speaker 1: and all of that. 553 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 2: And you know, the Jeff Bezos doesn't like and owns 554 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 2: the loh and all of those things. 555 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 1: They pulled down every stop. 556 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,199 Speaker 2: They could, both legitimate and illegitimate, to make sure that 557 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,479 Speaker 2: did not take root. And the vestiges of that, like 558 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 2: the squad members that get elected to the House. Number one, 559 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 2: they embrace too much of the like identitarian view and 560 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 2: that makes them like not that popular. And number two, 561 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 2: there has been just a war that you wrote a 562 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 2: book about, waged on them to make sure that they 563 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,680 Speaker 2: either fall in line or they're kicked out, and so 564 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,120 Speaker 2: that's that's why I'm saying, like, yeah, I'm not. I 565 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 2: think that a much better direction for the Democratic Party 566 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,880 Speaker 2: would be to look at the guy Bernie Sanders who 567 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 2: was winning these coalitions and say, what can we learn 568 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 2: from him? I have zero expectation that's what they will do. 569 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,479 Speaker 2: I think instead they will just be the like, kinder, 570 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 2: gentler version of Trump. 571 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 3: I think there will We'll see, all right, because I 572 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 3: think there's still quite a bit of the identitarianism that 573 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 3: is in the vestiges of MSNBC and CNN, which we're 574 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 3: going to get to in a little bit. For their 575 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 3: overall response, I think in general what we have seen 576 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 3: with the popular vote and specifically actually this really is 577 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 3: a question to the Republicans as to whether they can 578 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 3: follow through. I mean, voters now basically been begging them 579 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 3: for twenty years to shut the border and to stop immigration. 580 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,159 Speaker 3: So will they actually do it? I mean, you know, 581 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,320 Speaker 3: narrow house majority, we'll. 582 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,679 Speaker 1: See even with and it could deal with them on it. 583 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 3: Not many call it right now. 584 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 4: But if it's an if it's a deal, If it's 585 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 4: a I mean. 586 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:44,720 Speaker 3: What is a gang of eight? Or the game is 587 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 3: not going to fly like went need to see like actual, 588 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:48,120 Speaker 3: I mean, look, and this. 589 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,920 Speaker 6: Is with the budget under Obama. That's what this is 590 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 6: going to be. 591 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 3: Wed this like several weeks ago and I was like, 592 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 3: I think if Trump wins, it will just be like 593 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,639 Speaker 3: quote it's immigration stupid. And I look increasingly just believe 594 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,240 Speaker 3: that because if you look at the tone of the 595 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 3: campaign and behind every Donald Trump press conference, there was 596 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 3: you know, in the stuff behind him, like for example, 597 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 3: like the image right behind us. If you look at 598 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 3: the I'm forgetting what the thing is called, Like whatever 599 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 3: they put behind the candidate, it would be like n 600 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 3: migrant crime and mass deportation. Remember at the RNC, the 601 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,640 Speaker 3: big the number one sign was literally just mass deportation. 602 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 3: I'm like, okay, this is the uniting element of the 603 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 3: entire Republican argument that went into this election. Now, is 604 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 3: that the main reason they won? Maybe, but like I 605 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,639 Speaker 3: think very clearly it is the number one thing of 606 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 3: why Donald Trump won twenty sixteen the primary, because he 607 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 3: was the most vociferous on immigration and now has won 608 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 3: a popular vote mandate in addition to a Republican advantage 609 00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,160 Speaker 3: in the House and the Senate, likely at least for 610 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 3: what we see right now. But The question of how 611 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 3: that actually manifests an office is huge because this is 612 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 3: what Crystal was just talking about. The capital, you know, 613 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 3: pushed back to mass deportation and to immigration reform and 614 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 3: Everify and all that. It is going to be crazy 615 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 3: from what the I mean, the Chamber of Commerce and 616 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 3: all these folks, they are licking their chops and they're 617 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 3: ready to roll. They got billions of dollars to be 618 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 3: ready to throw at Everify. They've also there's big questions 619 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 3: here around the actual like how the Trump administration will 620 00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 3: staff itself and what it looks like. Is it going 621 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 3: to look like the party that's just going to give 622 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 3: Bill Ackman and elon his tax cuts and not follow 623 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 3: through on immigration, because that's how you actually would lead 624 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 3: to some sort of Bill Clinton what was it called, 625 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,760 Speaker 3: like the New Democratic Coalition put you know, the way 626 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 3: that they could you know, the DLC, that's right, the DLC. 627 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 3: How a DLC style like candidate would be able to 628 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 3: come in And I would not necessarily bet against that. 629 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,280 Speaker 3: You know, corporatism is a deeply strong force, especially in 630 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,240 Speaker 3: the immigration lobby, and I do still think they could 631 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 3: still win on this. Even though Donald Trump did win 632 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 3: the election. Now, so it's a question actually of Republican 633 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 3: governance and to what direction that looks like. But it's 634 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 3: also a big question of the media elites and the 635 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,480 Speaker 3: Democratic Party for how they respond to it, because as 636 00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,400 Speaker 3: you guys know, you know, you were both booted off 637 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 3: basically have you seen we're talking about right now, you know, 638 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 3: so they don't even have the bones for it like that, 639 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 3: that institutional memory is gone, like it's it's it's what 640 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 3: it's been almost a decade, you know, since that's happened 641 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 3: to even to even acknowledge so many of the things 642 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 3: that we've talked about here in the first hour on 643 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,040 Speaker 3: our show is we're boten, you know over there, except 644 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 3: for like Joe Scarborough in a while, no sorry, Chris 645 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 3: Matthews actually said some of this this what I'm what 646 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 3: I'm talking about on immigration, but of course he framed 647 00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 3: in a very different way. 648 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's that's that's why I think that 649 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 2: the Democrats are I mean, they're already their analysis is 650 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 2: basically like we need to move to the right, like 651 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,080 Speaker 2: that's what we need to do, and specifically on the 652 00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 2: issue of immigration, and so you separated out from economics 653 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 2: and that's the only that's the edit I would make 654 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 2: is that, you know, as I was saying before trump 655 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 2: Ism and the you know, right, populism, I'll use the 656 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 2: that that label to keep from offending anybody. Right, Populism 657 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:59,720 Speaker 2: has a coherent ideology. It has a set of villains, 658 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 2: one of those prominent villains being immigrants, and it has 659 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 2: a set of victims. It has a collective like that 660 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 2: you know that we're all in this together. And these 661 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 2: are the groups, and it's predominantly you know, it's the 662 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 2: deep state, it's cultural elites, which overlaps but is not 663 00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 2: entirely you know, consistent with rich people in capital. 664 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 3: Yes, and it's immigrants, yell media and yeah. 665 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 2: And the idea is like, these are the groups that 666 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 2: are keeping you down, and that means economically, that means 667 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 2: like they're the ones who are imposing things on your 668 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 2: life that you don't like. They're changing your town, you're 669 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,640 Speaker 2: changing your culture, like whatever you're not happy with that's 670 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 2: going on in your life, these are the people to blame. 671 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:39,480 Speaker 1: And so I don't think you can. 672 00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 2: I don't think you're wrong, Sagar that immigration is an 673 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,960 Speaker 2: important part of that, because that is part of what 674 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 2: coheres the story. But it's not just I reject the 675 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 2: idea you can neatly separate like that's a cultural issue 676 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 2: and that's an economic issue. Voters said their number one 677 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,960 Speaker 2: issue was inflation economics, and I believe them, but I think, 678 00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:01,080 Speaker 2: you know, Trump has presented this vision. I don't agree 679 00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:02,680 Speaker 2: with it. I find it ugly. I think it's bad 680 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 2: for the country. I think it's anti democratic. But he's 681 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,200 Speaker 2: presented a coherent vision for if we go after these people, 682 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:08,920 Speaker 2: your life is. 683 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:09,840 Speaker 1: Going to go get better. 684 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 2: And Democrats rejected the alternative vision that was on offer 685 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 2: from Bernie Sanders, and so I think all they really 686 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,400 Speaker 2: have left to do now, because they're not going to 687 00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 2: now be like you're right, Bernie, sorry, is to move 688 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 2: right and try to you know, try to be the softler, 689 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 2: gentler version of what's. 690 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 1: On off of the Republicans. 691 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 8: I'm curious for you a take, Okay, well, curious for 692 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 8: a take on this real quick. 693 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 7: Then well we just just ended on that thing. 694 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 3: Well, go ahead, Emily, sound off, last time off to 695 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 3: get to the dearborn mayor. 696 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,520 Speaker 4: All I was going to say is that immigration is 697 00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,360 Speaker 4: the issue and Republicans, and you know, to some except 698 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders understood this on other issues. It is the 699 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 4: bridge between economics and culture. And Bernie understood that in 700 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 4: terms of like tax cuts for the rich and all 701 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 4: of it, Like there are these points that are you know, 702 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,520 Speaker 4: Occupy Wall Street was not just an economic movement, that 703 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 4: was a cultural movement. That Tea Party was not an 704 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 4: economic movement. It was a cultural movement. That's what Bernie 705 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,800 Speaker 4: Sanders understood. And so Ryan, just a quick flashback to 706 00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:09,760 Speaker 4: twenty twenty two midterms. 707 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 6: We were interviewing Terry Schilling. He runs a group called 708 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:13,560 Speaker 6: the American Principles. 709 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,920 Speaker 4: Project that was running up ads all over the suburbs 710 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:18,400 Speaker 4: on trans issues. 711 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:18,800 Speaker 6: Remember that. 712 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 4: They them add that a lot of Republicans were running 713 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 4: in swing districts and Trump was running. 714 00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,280 Speaker 6: In fact, he said that was working. 715 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 4: And when we're looking at low propensity voters coming out 716 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 4: in a big way. It wasn't enough in the midterms 717 00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 4: obviously for the red wave, but in this election we 718 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 4: had a big turnout. It looks like low propensity voters 719 00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 4: voters Trump made massive improvement. As Jeff Stein says, with 720 00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:43,880 Speaker 4: voters under fifty thousand dollars, that is not just an 721 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,200 Speaker 4: income that is not just about the economics, that is, 722 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,000 Speaker 4: about the marriage of economics and culture that Donald Trump 723 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 4: understands in a way that Ron De Santis and Nicky 724 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 4: Hayley and other Republicans don't, and in a way that 725 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 4: Kamala Harris absolutely could not tap into either. 726 00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that that's very true, and you're not wrong, Crystal. 727 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 3: A lot of it is separate. But as I often say, 728 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 3: and you know, people get mad at me as like, 729 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,200 Speaker 3: I don't believe a lot of voters sometimes whenever they 730 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,759 Speaker 3: talk either because you know, people say, oh, democracy or 731 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 3: economic and you know, when one services as economic, like 732 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 3: what are they really trying to get at it? And 733 00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,560 Speaker 3: I just think the beating heart of trump Ism is 734 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,279 Speaker 3: you know, you even use the word right, populism. I 735 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 3: don't even know if that's accurate. I think it's just 736 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,400 Speaker 3: straight up nationalism at this point, Like that's what it is. 737 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:30,359 Speaker 3: We have literally autarchic trade policy, like mercantilist eighteenth century philosophy, 738 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:35,000 Speaker 3: we have anti you know, immigration in terms of populist 739 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,200 Speaker 3: it's a flavor of it though. And so when I 740 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 3: say nationalism, saying the coherence between it and like what 741 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,960 Speaker 3: actually separates all of that is specifically what you just 742 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,839 Speaker 3: said with the cultural elite of where there may be 743 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:51,640 Speaker 3: some overlap, but is genuinely distinct and cltically the average 744 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 3: guy on the street, he knows what I mean whenever 745 00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,560 Speaker 3: we're talking about the Hollywood elite or the people who 746 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,279 Speaker 3: decided to come out and to vote for Donald Trump. 747 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,400 Speaker 3: And so I think that actually and whether it is 748 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,760 Speaker 3: able to be fulfilled in legislation, which is the ultimate 749 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 3: big question mark for me, because I have, you know, 750 00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:09,720 Speaker 3: I know a lot of people who are very pro Trump. 751 00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,440 Speaker 3: We met some of them yesterday, Ryan, and they're very enthusiastic, 752 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,279 Speaker 3: And I remember telling you as we were leaving, I 753 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,280 Speaker 3: was like, listen, bro I was here in twenty sixteen, 754 00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,960 Speaker 3: and I remember this whole thing and didn't work out 755 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:23,560 Speaker 3: so well for a lot of those folks on that point, 756 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,960 Speaker 3: because there's this relationship between the culture and the economics, 757 00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 3: such a imagine four years from now people are still angry, 758 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 3: Like I feel like the only hope that Democrats have 759 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:39,160 Speaker 3: is baked into the fact that Republicans also suck and 760 00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,759 Speaker 3: that they are not and our system sucks and it's 761 00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:43,919 Speaker 3: not going to be able to deliver anything. There makes 762 00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:48,600 Speaker 3: anybody happier four years from now and feeding them immigration 763 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,560 Speaker 3: stuff four years from now and beating up on CNN 764 00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 3: and MSNBC isn't going to satisfy the it's when they're 765 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,480 Speaker 3: the governing. What dem should pray for is a repeat 766 00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 3: of two thousand in seventeen twenty eighteen, where Trump fails 767 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,440 Speaker 3: on immigration, fails on the border wall, and his only 768 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 3: accomplishment is to just pass max tax cut for corporation 769 00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 3: to enrich people, right, Like, that's what they should pray 770 00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:12,480 Speaker 3: on on their hands and knees for just making sure 771 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,759 Speaker 3: that the only corporatism basically succeeds and it becomes some 772 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:19,000 Speaker 3: sort of major giveaway that leads to a lot of 773 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,799 Speaker 3: deep satisfaction in there. If he does accomplish a lot 774 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:23,440 Speaker 3: of this stuff, it's going to be a problem they're 775 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:23,880 Speaker 3: going to do. 776 00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,759 Speaker 8: If he does shut down immigration, he will drive up 777 00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:28,840 Speaker 8: prices for one. 778 00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:32,440 Speaker 7: But two then he will also then he'll then he'll take. 779 00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 8: Then he'll take away that that arrow as well, Like, 780 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 8: how do you like it's possible? 781 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,160 Speaker 3: I mean, look, first of all, yeah, anyway, go ahead. 782 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,000 Speaker 2: Well, I mean in the short like, if he enacts 783 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,600 Speaker 2: his agenda, his stated agenda, we've had this debate many times. 784 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 8: He he won't do that, Like he's he's gonna have 785 00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:50,520 Speaker 8: Lightheiser back in the pink. 786 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:55,319 Speaker 2: He'll be fun huge number of tariffs, mass deportation, mass austerity, 787 00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:56,200 Speaker 2: which is. 788 00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:57,880 Speaker 1: The Elon Plan, splashing the bureaucracy. 789 00:36:57,960 --> 00:36:58,479 Speaker 3: It would be. 790 00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 2: A economic catash catastrophe, right, Prices would skyrocket across the board, 791 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,759 Speaker 2: housing people, works about all that stuff right now, Do 792 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,560 Speaker 2: you're right? Do I think that he's actually going to 793 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 2: like do all of that stuff? No, But you know, 794 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 2: I think I think Ryan's point is an apt one, 795 00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,360 Speaker 2: which is why, like I'm not, I don't feel like 796 00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,760 Speaker 2: this is doom and gloom for the Democratic Party because 797 00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,959 Speaker 2: I think there's a very good chance that, especially next 798 00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,680 Speaker 2: time around, it's not going to be Trump. 799 00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:24,520 Speaker 1: Making the case. 800 00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:28,960 Speaker 2: It's going to be JdE Vance probably who you know, 801 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:33,080 Speaker 2: hasn't shown the same electoral prowess as Donald Trump has, 802 00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,520 Speaker 2: who's just this like uniquely charismatic figure. 803 00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 1: So in any case, sure, but you. 804 00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,160 Speaker 2: Know, in any case, it may be tougher for him 805 00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,600 Speaker 2: because then he has to defend trump Ism and the 806 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,239 Speaker 2: people who have had to do that have not buy 807 00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,839 Speaker 2: and large done all that well too, are not themselves done. 808 00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,400 Speaker 3: It's a tough position. You basically find himself like HW 809 00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,560 Speaker 3: and the Reagan consensus. You want to be a different person, 810 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,319 Speaker 3: but you also have to defend like Reagan. It was 811 00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:58,960 Speaker 3: very complicated and part of the reason why he ended 812 00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,799 Speaker 3: up losing the BA