WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Stuart Kaiser, Brad Setser, & John Stoltzfus

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea coming off the FED meeting yesterday. We

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<v Speaker 2>made multiple further progress today. I'm keeping entertained hour to

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<v Speaker 2>hour greade set of guests. I thought Wendy Schiller of

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<v Speaker 2>Brown University just wonderful on the linkages of the G

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<v Speaker 2>seven meeting back to the other odd meeting of World

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<v Speaker 2>War two, the Potsdam Conference of nineteen forty five. At

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<v Speaker 2>that conference, Roosevelt had died, Truman was there, is a

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<v Speaker 2>newly minted president completely different than Fdr Churchill was there

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<v Speaker 2>as Prime Minister, but in the middle of the Potsdam

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<v Speaker 2>Conference he learned he was out of a job, and

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<v Speaker 2>Clement Attley took over. I think Clement Atlee maybe took

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<v Speaker 2>over the middle of the conference. I don't have that

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<v Speaker 2>in front of me, and Joseph Stalin was looking at him, going,

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<v Speaker 2>you crazy guys in the West. Is that any different

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<v Speaker 2>than what Amory Horden is seeing in Pulia? The G

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<v Speaker 2>seven meeting. They lined up for the photo shoot today

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<v Speaker 2>and they had the guy from Germany struggling. Mccronlooked like

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<v Speaker 2>he hadn't slept in a week. The guy from Canada

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<v Speaker 2>was there smiling. I don't know where Canada's gone. President

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<v Speaker 2>Biden with his challenges which you know, four against whatever,

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<v Speaker 2>and then bonus round the Prime Minister of England who's

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<v Speaker 2>in a hillatious election battle with labor. Just completely odd.

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<v Speaker 2>They didn't even get to Ursua LeVander vander Leiden, I

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<v Speaker 2>should say, out on the right side of the photo shoot,

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<v Speaker 2>who's running Brussels and seems to be pretty assured of

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<v Speaker 2>a view forward as well. But just just bizarre European

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<v Speaker 2>and politics and how it affects America. Had a great

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<v Speaker 2>show today. Let's go first to this bullmarket. We really

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<v Speaker 2>had a bullmarket centric view today. A lot of good

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<v Speaker 2>guests who have been right, they have participated Stuart Kaiser

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<v Speaker 2>City Group on big tech a.

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<v Speaker 3>Stock here there. Yes, But you know, if you look

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<v Speaker 3>to your point big picture, this is not tech bubble

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<v Speaker 3>type valuations, right, This is not you know, a tech

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<v Speaker 3>bubble type over your skis. This is a small number

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<v Speaker 3>of companies generating a massive amount of earnings growth that

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<v Speaker 3>are getting rewarded for it. So, you know, are we

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<v Speaker 3>above average valuation? Yes? I think if you looked at

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<v Speaker 3>the S and P five hundred you'd say you're probably

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<v Speaker 3>maybe even upper cortile, upper decyle. But you know there's

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<v Speaker 3>still room to expand. I think if the economy holds

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<v Speaker 3>in and we continue to print the type erning's growth,

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<v Speaker 3>we are.

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<v Speaker 2>Stuart Kaiser City Group. But thank you to other people

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<v Speaker 2>with different time frames talking about participating. Ted Oakley stopped

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<v Speaker 2>by from Austin, Texas with Oxbo and he's in the market.

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<v Speaker 2>He owns tech. He's not buying new tech, but he

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<v Speaker 2>hasn't sold what he's owned, and down at the bottom

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<v Speaker 2>of his research note the gentleman from Texas Tech. It's

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<v Speaker 2>because he's got a five year perspective. How many of you?

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<v Speaker 2>Not me, certainly not Eric. Eric's just trying to get

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<v Speaker 2>the father day with baby Giuseppe. But the basic idea

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<v Speaker 2>here is a five year old you're kidding me. That's

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<v Speaker 2>my time frame, Ted Oakley in the markets, participating with

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<v Speaker 2>a time frame out that out that far. What a

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<v Speaker 2>joy to have My first read of the summer and

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<v Speaker 2>bread sets her is definitive within academics at the Council

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<v Speaker 2>on Foreign Relations expert on China. What's great about the

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<v Speaker 2>terseness of the way he writes is every paragraph is tense.

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<v Speaker 2>Every paragraph It's written almost in a collegiate way. Every

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<v Speaker 2>paragraph has value. His very short, wonderful read on deglobalization

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<v Speaker 2>at Foreign Affairs Magazine. I just can't say enough about it.

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<v Speaker 2>It is a primal scream against some of the mists

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<v Speaker 2>of deglobalization. Here bred sets are of the Council on

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<v Speaker 2>Foreign Relations.

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<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk will make decisions that are good for Elon Musk.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we've seen them. The US government has to

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<v Speaker 1>make decisions that are good for the American public. I

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<v Speaker 1>do think in the case of electric vehicles, it is

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<v Speaker 1>appropriate to put some limits on our imports from China

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<v Speaker 1>to allow American electric vehicle manufacturers to scale up in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States to catch up with China. I think

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<v Speaker 1>what people often forget is that China has achieved its

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<v Speaker 1>advantage in electric vehicles not by truly liberal policies, but

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<v Speaker 1>by very active industrial policies. China's electric vehicle industry has

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<v Speaker 1>long been predicted by temper, and China has very strong

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<v Speaker 1>by Chinese provisions linked to its EV subsidies, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>thrown money its battery producers. China's ahead, we need to

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<v Speaker 1>catch up, and I think that's what the.

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<v Speaker 2>Administration there's Brad Setser of the Console Form Relations. My

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<v Speaker 2>first read is Summer the Myth of Deglobalization. We had

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<v Speaker 2>a bull market tinge today. I mentioned Ben Ladler in

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<v Speaker 2>a tweet earlier today, getting the Markets right in December

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<v Speaker 2>of twenty eighteen. That chart is just breathtaking to describe

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<v Speaker 2>it here on this podcast. It's a semilogue chart which

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<v Speaker 2>shows percent change and from November thirtieth of twenty eighteen.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a very contained trend, very nicely contained when you

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<v Speaker 2>run a regression on it within two standard deviations. And

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<v Speaker 2>we're not extended on that trend. We're above the center line,

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<v Speaker 2>we're above the center tendency, but we're not extended. That's

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<v Speaker 2>something we talked to all of our bull market types

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<v Speaker 2>today about, including John Stolfus, who's been a bull He's

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<v Speaker 2>maybe the first one I heard who whispered fifty four hundred.

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<v Speaker 2>He says he will not go higher until we print

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<v Speaker 2>fifty five hundred. And also Paul Sweet had to bring

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<v Speaker 2>it up. Is great, and John stolf is like legit

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<v Speaker 2>country guitar player. He's got some serious Broadway cred over

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<v Speaker 2>the years. And for all of you looking for a

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<v Speaker 2>treat for your graduate John Stolfus on Martin guitars.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, you know, I go after the custom shop guitars

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<v Speaker 4>from there. So I've got a D eighteen Golden Era

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<v Speaker 4>that's signed by Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>It doesn't have scallop bracing, it's got traditional bracing right.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, you know it has traditional because it's mimicking something

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<v Speaker 4>like nineteen forty one, nineteen forty two, and it's terrific.

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<v Speaker 4>I think it actually is scallop breast. It wasn't that

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<v Speaker 4>the originals.

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<v Speaker 2>It was the original scalop or that.

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<v Speaker 4>If it's a custom shop you get the.

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<v Speaker 2>Neil Young's nineteen sixty eight, sixty nine, you know, D

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<v Speaker 2>forty five. Those weren't Scott and they got that old

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<v Speaker 2>Martin sound.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's an interesting point.

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<v Speaker 2>I can tell you this.

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<v Speaker 4>I've I've owned a D twenty eight that I bought

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<v Speaker 4>in the probably about nineteen eighty two for Manny's when

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<v Speaker 4>it was still in business. Yeah, great guitar. And later

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<v Speaker 4>on I bought a D twenty eight that was Brazilian

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<v Speaker 4>rosewood from the factory of Reproduction.

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<v Speaker 1>And I tell you the.

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<v Speaker 4>Truth, that D eighteen with Indian rose rud from the

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<v Speaker 4>seven in the eighties was a better guitar.

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<v Speaker 2>That's great. Where else are you going to get this?

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<v Speaker 2>John Stulfus a Opko, Oppenheimer and Company. I think he

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<v Speaker 2>owns forty seven guitars. I just lie, Eric, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I just how much did that cost? I just moved

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<v Speaker 2>to death some whole point. You know, It's like that

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<v Speaker 2>was one hundred It was five hundred and forty nine

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<v Speaker 2>dollars here, And you know something, I guess I'll have

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<v Speaker 2>to sell them. John Stulfus on Martin Guitars. We're going

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<v Speaker 2>to finish strong for the week and into next week

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<v Speaker 2>as well. We mentioned it once suddenly June thirty, beckons

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<v Speaker 2>window dressing. Maybe that's what's driving big tech higher on

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<v Speaker 2>Ample Podcasts, Single best Idea