Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on
Speaker 1: inflation is much too high, and we understand the hardship
Speaker 1: it is causing, and we're moving expeditiously to bring it
Speaker 1: back down the first time since two thousand and sixty,
Speaker 1: the Treasury Department is planning to pay down the national
Speaker 1: Floomberg Sound on Politics, Policy and Perspective from DC's top names.
Speaker 1: Feels even better than I thought it would. Thank you
Speaker 1: all so much, fighting biting, scratching, pension klawn. It's about
Speaker 1: economic freedom for them. Trump said, we we win it
Speaker 1: so much, we get tired of winning. Well, I'm tired
Speaker 1: of our party loses. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. The Fed brings the biggest interest rate
Speaker 1: hike in twenty two years, as President Biden reveals a
Speaker 1: smaller deficit, and the Trump brand remains a force on
Speaker 1: the campaign trail. Welcome to the Fastest Hour in politics
Speaker 1: with the latest on the War on Inflation. Will be
Speaker 1: joined in a moment by Congressman French Hill, Republican from Arkansas,
Speaker 1: member of the House Financial Services Committee, and later with
Speaker 1: Heather Boucher will discuss the same from the White House
Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors. Getting the view from the Democratic
Speaker 1: point of view the administration and Republicans on the Hill. J.
Speaker 1: D Vance wins the Republicans Senate primary in Ohio. How
Speaker 1: about it a convincing when thanks to Donald Trump? Will
Speaker 1: discuss it with Bloomberg's Mark Niquette end with our signature
Speaker 1: panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Schanzano and Rick Davis with
Speaker 1: us for the hour. J Powell, what asked about a
Speaker 1: possible seventy five bases point move not gonna happen, Get
Speaker 1: used to fifty for the next couple of meetings. This
Speaker 1: after the President spoke a little bit earlier in the
Speaker 1: day about inflation kind of it's really deficit reduction, but
Speaker 1: he was talking about calling again for Congress to raise
Speaker 1: taxes on corporations and the wealthy to drive down the deficit,
Speaker 1: and speaking in fact about new numbers greater deficit reduction
Speaker 1: than for expected announced by the Treasury. I reduced the
Speaker 1: federal deficit. All the talk about the deficit from our
Speaker 1: Republican brands, I love it. I've reduced it three hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty billion dollars in my first year in office,
Speaker 1: and we're on track to reduce it by the end
Speaker 1: of September by another one trillion, five hundred billion dollars,
Speaker 1: the largest drop ever. I don't want to hear Republicans
Speaker 1: talk about deficites and their ultrama agenda. I want to
Speaker 1: hear about fairness. I want to hear about decency. I
Speaker 1: want to better help on ordinary people. This is where
Speaker 1: we begin with Congressman French Hill, Republican from Arkansas, member
Speaker 1: of the House Financial Services Committee, and a former banker himself,
Speaker 1: one of the FED whisperers we rely on here at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Congressman, welcome back. When you put all of
Speaker 1: this together, the FED getting on board with the interest
Speaker 1: rate hikes that I know you wanted to see start earlier,
Speaker 1: a president who's trumping the idea. Dare I say the
Speaker 1: word trumping? The idea of deficit reduction not a very
Speaker 1: sexy topic in the nation's capital. Can should Americans feel
Speaker 1: like we're getting back on track here? Boy? I don't
Speaker 1: know Joe. I think if he if Joe Biden wanted
Speaker 1: to really help working Americans, he wouldn't have dumped another
Speaker 1: two trillion dollars of borrowed unfocused, prioritized spending on top
Speaker 1: of the four and a half trillion dollars that we've
Speaker 1: spend every year. And that's what he did last year,
Speaker 1: and he was just held back from doing another five
Speaker 1: trillion by unhappiness by Joe Manchin. So so you do
Speaker 1: believe that the COVID relief spending helped to prompt this
Speaker 1: inflation that it was it was overboard? I do? I do?
Speaker 1: I do, because when you combine that kind of fiscal
Speaker 1: stimulus concentrated in with the fipartisan COVID release money plus
Speaker 1: what he added in, you combine that with zero interest
Speaker 1: rates in a hundred twenty billion dollars upon by monthly
Speaker 1: by the Fed, you don't have. You can't invent a
Speaker 1: more stimulative demand focused And this is why Larry Summers
Speaker 1: and others economists were warning warning the Biden administrations they
Speaker 1: were playing with fire when you mix that kind of
Speaker 1: fiscal policy and we maintain that aggressive posture by the debt.
Speaker 1: So here we are. Congressman, did did you want the
Speaker 1: Fed to go further today or you like this fifty
Speaker 1: basis point decision? Well? I think I think their decisions too.
Speaker 1: I would have gone sooner and we you not talked
Speaker 1: about that. I won't pick up our time today. I
Speaker 1: understand would have started sooner and TETHERD sooner. But fifty
Speaker 1: uh is good and I think getting the balance sheet down.
Speaker 1: But they're going into have a very difficult period because
Speaker 1: they waited so long, and I wish them the best
Speaker 1: and I hope that it works out for the whole
Speaker 1: country that we have sold. Yeah. Well, do you hear
Speaker 1: Janet yelling yesterday talking about this a soft landing? She says, uh,
Speaker 1: we'll involve some luck on the car of the FED.
Speaker 1: I believe she said a combination. What was the quote?
Speaker 1: The fedulity to be skillful and also lucky. We know, Congressman,
Speaker 1: it hasn't happened that many times in history. No, and uh,
Speaker 1: we're in an unprecedented situation, if I call it, as
Speaker 1: Arthur Burns to the anguish of central banking. When you
Speaker 1: wait too long and the horses out of the corral,
Speaker 1: you really have a hard time getting inflation back under control.
Speaker 1: That's why it's so challenge. So why take seventy five
Speaker 1: basis points off the table, as j Palill seemed to
Speaker 1: do today? Well, I think J. Pale believes that an
Speaker 1: important feature of the FED is projecting what they're going
Speaker 1: to do and stick with it and seeing how the
Speaker 1: results calibrate. And he is, I think assessing, is there
Speaker 1: any portion of this eleven percent producer price UH annualized
Speaker 1: price increases that we're seeing and robust cpis that could
Speaker 1: in fact be transitory. So I think he's doing this
Speaker 1: as a way to why to market reaction very carefully
Speaker 1: as he shrinks the balance sheet and raises rates at
Speaker 1: the same time. Market loved it. I know the banker
Speaker 1: and you is watching the housing market, your ranking member
Speaker 1: of the Housing Subcommittee, and so I have to ask
Speaker 1: you about this part of the economy. Mortgage rates are
Speaker 1: rising UH inventories that are still historically low, and nowhere
Speaker 1: in some markets. Is housing inflation not fixable through rate heights? Congressmen,
Speaker 1: uh No. And it's also understated, as you know in
Speaker 1: the c p I and I've been calling for that's
Speaker 1: going to be a driver in the CPI is staying
Speaker 1: elevated all of twenty one, and you've hitted. The March
Speaker 1: numbers are just out home price appreciation. I think March
Speaker 1: year over year or sixteen point six per over twenty one,
Speaker 1: and that's up from twelve a year ago. So housing
Speaker 1: and that's also it's equally robust and rental, and so
Speaker 1: I see housing prices staying elevated. On top of the
Speaker 1: fact that we have rising rates and low inventory. It's
Speaker 1: a perfect storm for high house prices being sustained. And
Speaker 1: we have this thing we haven't seen before, Joe, which
Speaker 1: is people's reassessing where their houses and how much house
Speaker 1: to have because of the pandemic and this work from
Speaker 1: home move. So that's a little bit of a curb
Speaker 1: in here in that demand curve. It's going to be
Speaker 1: interesting to watch. Well, you know, the story around here
Speaker 1: and in a lot of areas. This is not a Washington,
Speaker 1: d c. Story. It was the same, uh, going back
Speaker 1: over the last several months in markets up and down
Speaker 1: the East and West coasts in the heartland, where people
Speaker 1: are putting down cash offers, no contingencies, don't even need
Speaker 1: to see the house, don't even need to look at
Speaker 1: the house, because it's that competitive. Gallop released a poll
Speaker 1: today showing only thirty of adults I think this is
Speaker 1: a good time to buy a home, which is the
Speaker 1: lowest stance the late seventies Congressman. When does that materialize
Speaker 1: in the market. I know historically you get a big
Speaker 1: sort of gas of buying when rates start going up,
Speaker 1: and then you start to potentially see weakness. Is that
Speaker 1: your expectation, It is my expectation. But I think that
Speaker 1: assessment of people moving because they have more job flexibility,
Speaker 1: and the fact that we have two trillion dollars in
Speaker 1: the economy that's excess reserves out their households have over
Speaker 1: two trillion dollars of extra money from pandemic, from savings
Speaker 1: from not taking trips during the pandemic, So that is
Speaker 1: fueling down payment demand. Plus people moving from high cost
Speaker 1: areas to low cost areas, people moving from California to Arkansas,
Speaker 1: people moving from Connecticut to Florida. That plays into more
Speaker 1: buying power, even in the headwinds of price increase and
Speaker 1: a higher mortgage. I'll tell you, could you imagine being
Speaker 1: a banker again right now? How do you manage a
Speaker 1: market like this? Well, I've been I started my career
Speaker 1: in ninety nine and was a bond trader, So I've
Speaker 1: done it in every cycle, and people will be out
Speaker 1: there and they will make money. I had my first
Speaker 1: mortgage was in Dallas and it was in the sevens.
Speaker 1: I what was the rate, Yeah, it was in the
Speaker 1: sevens in the early the early eighties. And so look,
Speaker 1: people get married, they have to have a house. People
Speaker 1: cope with this, but that's how you we That's why
Speaker 1: I'm worried that this inflation is not transitory and it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a tougher job for our monetary policy leaders. Well,
Speaker 1: you know a lot of people have two thousand seven
Speaker 1: uh in their minds here, Congressman. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you do as well. But at a certain point, are
Speaker 1: we talking out of bubble? Is this is this gonna
Speaker 1: be risky for people buying homes right now? You know,
Speaker 1: I don't think so, because of the liquidity and because
Speaker 1: we don't have the speculation in the market. We don't
Speaker 1: have those kinds of financial instruments. You're seeing people pay
Speaker 1: over listing price for a house that they want, but
Speaker 1: they're not buying five of them. You know, we had
Speaker 1: craziness between two thousand and five and two thousand seven,
Speaker 1: and particularly in recreational real estate areas like Florida. So
Speaker 1: I'm not seeing that kind of speculation. What I'm seeing
Speaker 1: is just good old fashioned government driven demand that's boosted prices,
Speaker 1: created inflation, and that's now being reacted to by higher
Speaker 1: interest rates, and we need to build more houses. Congressman
Speaker 1: French Hill, Republican from Arkansas. Always a pleasure to spend
Speaker 1: some time with you and appreciate your insights today, Congressman
Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg, I want to bring in Heather Bouchet
Speaker 1: to add a different voice to this conversation, joining us
Speaker 1: from the White House, a member of President Biden's Council
Speaker 1: of Economic Advisors. Heather, thanks, and welcome back to Bloomberg Radio. Well,
Speaker 1: thank you, it's a pleasure to be here, Joe. I've
Speaker 1: got to start with inflation on this FED day, of course, Heather,
Speaker 1: the biggest interest rate hikes since two thousands. I know
Speaker 1: you see the FED as independent, but are you happy
Speaker 1: is the economist and you're happy to see the Fed
Speaker 1: get more aggressive? Now, Well, you know, we don't comment
Speaker 1: on Fed policy. But here's the thing. It is the
Speaker 1: Fed's job to cope with inflation. That's in their mandate,
Speaker 1: and they're taking the steps that they need to take.
Speaker 1: And we all know that inflation has been high and
Speaker 1: it's been a challenge. There's a number of things that
Speaker 1: the President has a capacity to do to deal with inflation,
Speaker 1: things like making sure the supply chains work and making
Speaker 1: sure that markets function as they should through making sure
Speaker 1: that they're competitive, and doing what he can to lower
Speaker 1: gas prices through this crisis in the Ukraine. But the
Speaker 1: Fed also has to play its role, and so that's
Speaker 1: you know that that is what they did today. You
Speaker 1: know they're certainly at it, and I know the goal
Speaker 1: is to get inflation down, but of course there's a
Speaker 1: tough record when it comes to soft landings here. I
Speaker 1: was really struck by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's remark uh
Speaker 1: this week said the FED will need to be skillful
Speaker 1: and lucky, but it is possible. Um, do you worry
Speaker 1: about a recession being unavoidable? This is the big question
Speaker 1: right now in Washington, as you know how the well,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm an economist and I get up almost
Speaker 1: every day worried about whether or not there's going to
Speaker 1: be an extra session. I believe I have a book
Speaker 1: that I co authored with some folks called that Um,
Speaker 1: this is an ongoing, ongoing concern. But you know, here's
Speaker 1: the thing. The administration and Congress have done everything they
Speaker 1: can to shore up businesses and families and communities to
Speaker 1: weather this crisis of the pandemic, and you know, and
Speaker 1: to make sure that we get to this crisis caused
Speaker 1: by Putin's unprovoked war in the Ukraine. So there's a
Speaker 1: there's a lot of issues on the horizon because of those,
Speaker 1: but we have seen that the economy is resilient. We've
Speaker 1: seen that we have the tools now to better cope
Speaker 1: with new variants of the pandemic. And we've seen that
Speaker 1: even in the faith of you know, ebbs and flows
Speaker 1: of the pandemic, the labor market has remained quite strong.
Speaker 1: And we've seen that, you know, even as there have
Speaker 1: been challenges in growth, we're seeing some strong underlying fundamentals. So, um,
Speaker 1: all of that gives me hope that we are on
Speaker 1: a stable path in terms of loose jobs and investment,
Speaker 1: and that's where the real economy is. Do you have
Speaker 1: a sense of how long the consumer can keep this up?
Speaker 1: Just based on the savings rate, based on what we've
Speaker 1: been seeing the last couple of quarters, spending just seems
Speaker 1: to continue no matter what happens to inflation. Here, when
Speaker 1: does demand destruction begin? Well, you know, household balance sheets
Speaker 1: are in relatively good shape because families were kept hold
Speaker 1: during the crisis, and because we brought the unemployment rate down.
Speaker 1: So you know, those seven point nine million folks that
Speaker 1: have a job now that didn't win Joe Biden took office,
Speaker 1: those folks are all out there earning a living and
Speaker 1: they're spending that money. They're doing what Americans do, so
Speaker 1: that that does create a lot of resilience throughout the
Speaker 1: economy and and for families. The President spoke today about
Speaker 1: lowering deficits deficit reduction as a way also to fight inflation. Heather,
Speaker 1: here's what he said, bringing down the deficits, there's one
Speaker 1: way to ease inflationary pressures in an economy where a
Speaker 1: consequence of a war and gas prices and oil and
Speaker 1: food and at all. It's it's a different world right
Speaker 1: this moment, because of the Ukraine in Russia. Can you
Speaker 1: help our listeners do the math on this a little bit?
Speaker 1: What is what is a trillion and a half dollars
Speaker 1: in deficit reduction, which I believe is what we're talking
Speaker 1: about here. Uh, these these these new estimates from the Treasury,
Speaker 1: what is that equal in inflation reduction. Is it possible
Speaker 1: to know that? Well, that is a it's a great question.
Speaker 1: Let me start by noting that the reason that we
Speaker 1: are seeing this reduction in the deficit is in large
Speaker 1: part because of the success of the President's policies, because
Speaker 1: of the success of growth. Right saw this record pace
Speaker 1: of growth in US economy, growth faster than any points
Speaker 1: in seventeen eighties, and we saw this sharp uptick in
Speaker 1: jobs and a sharp downtick in the unemployment right down
Speaker 1: to three point six percent. So does that growth that
Speaker 1: created the tax revenue. That means that the deficit is
Speaker 1: now coming down more than it would have been otherwise.
Speaker 1: So some of what the President's talking about with the
Speaker 1: inflation busting is that, um, you know, as folks make
Speaker 1: more money, as as businesses sell more, some of that
Speaker 1: income is going into the federal government, and it's helping
Speaker 1: us pay off the debt, which maligned you. We haven't
Speaker 1: done anything to pay off the debt since the last administration,
Speaker 1: didn't pay down a penny, and now we're going to
Speaker 1: be able to do some of that. So that's pulling
Speaker 1: some money out of the economy. But importantly, um, it
Speaker 1: means that we aren't adding to the UH that that
Speaker 1: that that the administration is really focused on making sure
Speaker 1: that we're shoring up the economy for the long term,
Speaker 1: but not adding quick hit stimulus. Heather, you talked about
Speaker 1: your writing. You've written about how inequality constricts our economy,
Speaker 1: and I have to ask you about a major story
Speaker 1: this week that could have real economic implications, and that
Speaker 1: is the possible overturning of Roe v. Wade. This is
Speaker 1: not something that you and I would normally be talking about,
Speaker 1: but here we are today, Heather, and we've had several
Speaker 1: economists tell Bloomberg that this this threatens to reverse decades
Speaker 1: of economic gains by women, especially lower income black and
Speaker 1: Hispanic women. How worried are you about this? What would
Speaker 1: it actually mean for our economy of the court rules
Speaker 1: in this way. Well, as an economist, I'm extremely worried.
Speaker 1: One of the things that we saw over the course
Speaker 1: of the pandemic was that women, especially caregivers, had a
Speaker 1: tough time. You know, is even if they had the
Speaker 1: opportunity to telecommute, they had children. You know, if you
Speaker 1: had children at home, those children needed to be cared for.
Speaker 1: Childcare centers shut down, school shut down, We saw how
Speaker 1: hard that was and that people couldn't get to work.
Speaker 1: If you don't have care, you can't get to work. UM.
Speaker 1: Denying women the right to choose UM and to have
Speaker 1: reproductive freedom means that you are denying them the ability
Speaker 1: to decide how they're going to spend their time and
Speaker 1: whether or not they'll be able to participate fully in
Speaker 1: the labor market. There's actually a lot of economic research
Speaker 1: out there now that shows that reproductive rights do give
Speaker 1: women that economic opportunity UM and indeed, being forced to
Speaker 1: carry a child UH can can lead to economic harms
Speaker 1: because of the losses from jobs and and the like.
Speaker 1: It can it can lead to you know, it's it's
Speaker 1: as important as other kinds of dead or bankruptcy in
Speaker 1: in UH limiting women's economic security. And so this is
Speaker 1: really about people being able to have choices in their lives.
Speaker 1: They start a conversation, I'm sorry to interrupt, hewther, a
Speaker 1: new conversation about how to support women if this in
Speaker 1: fact becomes the Supreme Court's rule. Well, it's a it's
Speaker 1: a it's a it's a conversation that has been ongoing. Right.
Speaker 1: There are now eleven states in the country that provide
Speaker 1: paid family medical leave. There has been a national dialogue
Speaker 1: about whether or not families need a child tax credit,
Speaker 1: whether or not families need access to increased support for
Speaker 1: childcare and precate. The President has been on the forefront
Speaker 1: pushing forward with an agenda around care to support families
Speaker 1: and particularly to help mothers and caregivers cope with um
Speaker 1: you know, the daily everything of dealing with getting to
Speaker 1: your job and caring for a family. And I think
Speaker 1: those have been the President's priority and they continue to
Speaker 1: be incredibly important, especially in the wake of the tether Bouche,
Speaker 1: I appreciate your time today, thanks for being with us
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg. Thank you. Nowhere else you are going to
Speaker 1: hear two conversations like that together, never mind followed by
Speaker 1: this panel as we bring in Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie
Speaker 1: Schanzano and Rick Davis. Genie, I'm not sure where to
Speaker 1: begin here. On the inflation front. The White House is
Speaker 1: deferring to the Fed as always, don't want to comment
Speaker 1: on what the Fete is doing, but we've got fifty
Speaker 1: basis points today and it just so happens the President
Speaker 1: went out with a speech of his own about deficit reduction.
Speaker 1: Is this the best the administration can do to win
Speaker 1: over people on the issue? You know, listening to Heather Bouche,
Speaker 1: I think she should be out making the argument that
Speaker 1: the White House needs to make. I mean, her cogent
Speaker 1: argument about the impact, the economic impact on women is
Speaker 1: exactly what the administrative administration rather needs to say. I
Speaker 1: do think the President is smart to point to the deficit.
Speaker 1: It is incredibly important for them to point out, as
Speaker 1: he said, the hypocrisy on the other side talking about
Speaker 1: the deficit and not pushing it down. But also it
Speaker 1: is a message to Joe Mansion, because Joe Mansion has
Speaker 1: been going out and saying it's all about inflation, it's
Speaker 1: all about the deficit, and so Biden also needs to
Speaker 1: talk to him. So I think it's a smart argument,
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure it's going to change the hearts
Speaker 1: and minds of Americans as you look at the latest polls.
Speaker 1: Don't know what he cared about the deficit, Rick Davis,
Speaker 1: Republicans care about the deficit. Don't count herself out. Look,
Speaker 1: we haven't had a long time since Republicans cared about
Speaker 1: the deficit, and it's refreshing to see a Democratic president
Speaker 1: who just spent four trillion dollars and public works programs
Speaker 1: and and relief funding. UH to be talking about the deficit.
Speaker 1: But look, I mean, that's why you have growth. Growth
Speaker 1: makes up for a lot of bad public policy, and
Speaker 1: in this case, the president has taken advantage of that,
Speaker 1: and so they've gone out of their way a little.
Speaker 1: Remind everybody that Donald Trump never reduced the deficit, never
Speaker 1: lose the deficit, but he did create a lot of
Speaker 1: the economic growth that UH was already in place when
Speaker 1: when Joe Biden took over. And I think, you know,
Speaker 1: they both deserve credit. I mean, I think the Bush,
Speaker 1: the Trump tax cuts, you know, I helped fuel economic
Speaker 1: expansion in the time of COVID was really one of
Speaker 1: the worst and UH and Biden didn't do anything to
Speaker 1: get in the way of that. So it's not like
Speaker 1: you raised taxes and put more you know, breaks on
Speaker 1: the economy. UM. So it's it's it's actually refreshing on
Speaker 1: a day when the Fed is raising interest rates to
Speaker 1: have a conversation about, you know, the federal government has
Speaker 1: actually been able to pay back some of its deficits.
Speaker 1: So so I'm getting two thumbs up here from you.
Speaker 1: This is I understand. Okay, you're setting me straight here, Genie.
Speaker 1: You know about half the speech he veered into this
Speaker 1: Maga agenda. Portion of the address talking about what Rick
Speaker 1: Scott is proposing even sounded kind of upset at one
Speaker 1: point where he's thumping the podium and yelling about the
Speaker 1: social security I'll let you listen. Under this new plan,
Speaker 1: this tax plan, the Ultramaga agenda, while big corporations and
Speaker 1: billionaires are gonna pay nothing more, the working class folks
Speaker 1: are gonna pay help a lot more. And it goes
Speaker 1: further than that. This extreme Republican agenda calls for Congress.
Speaker 1: This is I'm not making this up either. You gotta
Speaker 1: really think about this. It requires a vote. If it
Speaker 1: were to pass, every five years, the Congress would have
Speaker 1: to vote to reinstate or eliminate Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Speaker 1: SoC Security something seniors have paid him for their whole life,
Speaker 1: and it has to be reauthorized. What are we doing
Speaker 1: with this messaging here, Jeannie? Uh? It was was that?
Speaker 1: It was that a poke? Uh, Mitch McConnell, Why are
Speaker 1: we bringing up Rick Scott's proposal when you're up there
Speaker 1: talking about your own achievements. You know, the two arguments
Speaker 1: Democrats need to make on the campaign trail, the one
Speaker 1: Heather Bouchet made about women and this one. Keep talking
Speaker 1: about Rick Scott's plan. There's a reason that Mitch McConnell
Speaker 1: said to Rick Scott shot up, essentially because that is
Speaker 1: deadly for Republicans and the President nailed it today and
Speaker 1: talking about that. They wanted to show that they're fiscally responsible.
Speaker 1: They want to talk about the GOP tax law, and
Speaker 1: they want to talk about Rick Scott's tax plan because
Speaker 1: nothing's gonna get seniors out to vote for Democrats like
Speaker 1: the threat of Rick Scott's plan. But Mitch McConnell doesn't
Speaker 1: want Rick Scott's plan, right, Rick was this also just
Speaker 1: kind of a broadside at against Mitch here from the
Speaker 1: other side of Pennsylvania Avenue, knowing that Rick Scott would
Speaker 1: like to be majority leader. No. I think really they've
Speaker 1: figured out what we've been talking about for some time, Joe,
Speaker 1: that they've got to nationalize this election. Uh. If the
Speaker 1: elections held on the terms that were going into this weekend,
Speaker 1: they're gonna get slaughtered. And so uh, I think Biden
Speaker 1: rightly is fixated on you know, this Ultramaga policy Trump policy. Uh,
Speaker 1: and they're gonna try to nationalize the election. And and obviously, look,
Speaker 1: Rick Scott gave himself a Sitting Duck award. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, he puts out this insane policy that only
Speaker 1: he endorses. Uh. But as policy director of the Caucus
Speaker 1: in the Senate, you know that's his job and his
Speaker 1: job to get people re elected. Rick and Genie with
Speaker 1: us for the hour our signature panel on sound ub Boy.
Speaker 1: We've covered a lot already and we have a lot
Speaker 1: more to go here. If you were watching last night,
Speaker 1: the president may be talking about the MAGA agenda. But
Speaker 1: jd Vance one, this is Bloomberg. It was a very
Speaker 1: good night for jd Vance, which means it was a
Speaker 1: very good night for Donald Trump. They wanted to write
Speaker 1: a story that this campaign would be the death of
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's America First Agenda. Ladies and gentlemen, it ain't
Speaker 1: the death of the America First Agenda. J. D Vance
Speaker 1: wins with a commanding leader, convincing turnout here what eight
Speaker 1: nine points over Josh Mandel, defeating six candidates in all
Speaker 1: thanks in large part, as we've discussed here on Sound
Speaker 1: on to his endorsement by Donald Trump, brought him out
Speaker 1: from the middle back of the pack, made the whole
Speaker 1: difference in the outcome of this race. And so Helo
Speaker 1: sets himself up. I should say, for a race against
Speaker 1: ten term Congressman Democrat Tim Ryan, average people working their
Speaker 1: rear ends off, trying to make ends meet, fighting biting straction,
Speaker 1: pension klawn right, it's about economic freedom for them, climbing
Speaker 1: to the top. Enough money to have a vacation, enough
Speaker 1: money to pay the bills, enough money, that's a economic freedom.
Speaker 1: That's what this campaign is about. An easy win for
Speaker 1: Congressman Ryan as he was appealing the blue collar voters
Speaker 1: in the state. We'll see who is better at that
Speaker 1: now in the general election. And we're joined again to
Speaker 1: talk about it by Bloomberg. Smart Nikka, who has been
Speaker 1: living on the campaign trail and was deep in this campaign,
Speaker 1: deep in this race in Ohio, was at several Trump
Speaker 1: rallies that brought us to this point. Mark, welcome back.
Speaker 1: I guess the Trump brand is very much still alive. Yeah.
Speaker 1: People were watching to see whether Donald Trump's endorsement had
Speaker 1: still had the power to in this case lift a
Speaker 1: candidate like j d Vance from as you said in
Speaker 1: your intro, the middle of the pack to victory, and
Speaker 1: looks like that's exactly what happened. I mean, j d
Speaker 1: Vance ran a good campaign that put him in a
Speaker 1: position to take advantage of the Trump endorsement. Certainly, but um,
Speaker 1: I don't think there's any way to read the results
Speaker 1: other than that Trump's endorsement got him over the finish line.
Speaker 1: Not just that, but I mean to take that take
Speaker 1: out Mandel by a convincing margin was significant, right, they
Speaker 1: were in a couple of polls, they were within points
Speaker 1: of each other. They were, and as you said, it
Speaker 1: didn't return out to be all that close, although it
Speaker 1: was a multi candidate field and people weren't sure exactly
Speaker 1: how it would turn out because in this case one
Speaker 1: um the primary, even though it was a comfortable lead
Speaker 1: over Mandel. Um. And now we're facing an interesting general
Speaker 1: election race. We are because as you as you mentioned,
Speaker 1: um Tim Ryan from from the Youngstown areas. It's an
Speaker 1: old industrial area, um steel mills that are long since
Speaker 1: gone in a scenaria where they were formerly Democrats predominantly
Speaker 1: who in the age of Trump became Republicans. They went
Speaker 1: and all in on Trump and his economic message, and
Speaker 1: Tim Ryan is trying to sort of adopt that approach,
Speaker 1: where his whole campaign has been about, you know, economic
Speaker 1: issues affecting working class voters to the extent that h J. D.
Speaker 1: Ryan at is an election night party last night said
Speaker 1: Ryan is running as a Trump Democrat, is how he
Speaker 1: put it. Um. So we're sort of setting up an
Speaker 1: interesting fight in Ohio between sort of the competing brands
Speaker 1: of economic populism. Yeah. So you've got a conservative populist
Speaker 1: here running against a moderate Democrat who likes yoga. How
Speaker 1: does that play in in in the new Ohio? Well,
Speaker 1: this is what we're gonna find out, because Ohio has been,
Speaker 1: you know, forever sort of the quintessential swing state, purple
Speaker 1: battleground state. UM. But under Trump, but it feels like
Speaker 1: it's it's become more Republican. Trump won the state twice
Speaker 1: by eight percentage points. Uh. And the feeling is, you know,
Speaker 1: the Republican has an advantage starting out in the general
Speaker 1: election j D. Advance. But we're gonna see because Tim
Speaker 1: Ryan is gonna produce a campaign that really focuses on
Speaker 1: these economic you know, working class issues, kitchen table issues,
Speaker 1: UM and try and you know, hold democrats who who
Speaker 1: you know might be UH in the past, you know,
Speaker 1: susceptible to to going over to the Republican side, try
Speaker 1: to keep them in the Democratic column and and still
Speaker 1: win a statewide in recent Ohio find his column on
Speaker 1: the terminal. Mark Niquette all over this. We appreciate it. Mark,
Speaker 1: thanks for being with us on sound On as we
Speaker 1: bring the panel back in on this, I do want
Speaker 1: to get insights from both Rick and Genie. Rick, You've
Speaker 1: seen Ohio change over the years. How would you describe
Speaker 1: it now? You know, back to the beginning. You know,
Speaker 1: when we were campaigning there in nineteen eighty with Ronald Reagan,
Speaker 1: we were looking for those same kind of you know,
Speaker 1: working class Steele County UH Democrats to become Republicans and
Speaker 1: and Ronald Reagan had a lot of success. We then
Speaker 1: moved into sort of the suburban mode. And with the
Speaker 1: state of Ohio, you have you know, a dozen media markets,
Speaker 1: you know, half a dozen major cities. Suburbs matter there
Speaker 1: and Republican drank from the victory cup more often than
Speaker 1: not because they were able to mobilize suburban voters. Now
Speaker 1: we're right back to those same you know, white collar
Speaker 1: or blue collar workers in the you know collars of
Speaker 1: those cities no longer the suburbs really trying to put
Speaker 1: together a victory. And look, I think it goes without saying.
Speaker 1: One of the things that's interesting about this election is
Speaker 1: that even though Vance won by handy margin over Mandel,
Speaker 1: vast majority of Republicans voted against him. And the question
Speaker 1: is he had enough transgressions against Trump in the past
Speaker 1: to sort of ward them off. He needs all those
Speaker 1: Republicans to be on his coalition, and I'd say the
Speaker 1: first order of business for him is going to be consolidation.
Speaker 1: He needs those Republicans. Genie. And as we just discussed
Speaker 1: in in Uh in a prior conversation this hour, this
Speaker 1: abortion issue could in fact disrupt the way things go
Speaker 1: in the suburbs. What do you see happening in the general?
Speaker 1: You know, it could. I am not convinced yet, but
Speaker 1: I think we really don't know yet. I am not
Speaker 1: convinced that it is going to be the winning issue
Speaker 1: for Democrats. I think it can be motivating. They do
Speaker 1: need to get women out. They knew need to take
Speaker 1: back some of these suburban Republican women that they had
Speaker 1: in eighteen and twenty, so it could be useful for that.
Speaker 1: The most important thing, though, is going to be the
Speaker 1: economy and inflation, and the most important thing is going
Speaker 1: to be that Democrats are able to show that the
Speaker 1: Republican candidates nominated are extreme, and that's what they're working
Speaker 1: to do with people like vance. Rick and j are
Speaker 1: going to come back in a moment. You know, Donald
Speaker 1: Trump had a big night. All twenty two of his
Speaker 1: endorsed candidates in Ohio and Indiana won their races. But
Speaker 1: there's one Republican governor who looks at things very differently,
Speaker 1: and he's calling out Donald Trump setting up what could
Speaker 1: be an interesting presidential campaign. That's next. You're listening to Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It's
Speaker 1: no coincidence that President Biden is heading for Ohio on Friday.
Speaker 1: Right now that we have a race in general election,
Speaker 1: he can actually start getting into this. Pushed Jim Ryan
Speaker 1: promote the computer chip plant that Intel is building near Columbus. Right,
Speaker 1: you can already hear the speech. Let's reassemble the panel
Speaker 1: now with Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Chantano and Rick Davis.
Speaker 1: It was not just J. D. E. Vance who won
Speaker 1: a Republican primary last night, Rick All twenty two, as
Speaker 1: I read of the candidates endorsed by Donald Trump in
Speaker 1: Ohio and Indiana one, so as he proven the skeptics
Speaker 1: wrong this cycle, or do you need to see more? Well? Um,
Speaker 1: certainly is a good first outing and and I think
Speaker 1: we will be seeing more. Right, there are other candidates
Speaker 1: who are gonna be running in the month of May,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna see in that effect. Obviously, his endorsement
Speaker 1: is paid off in in in Ohio, but it's not necessary.
Speaker 1: I mean, Mike the Wine, who's a pope heart governor
Speaker 1: of Ohi certainly wouldn't be our Ohio certainly wouldn't be
Speaker 1: uh called a Trump Republican. Uh probably performed better than
Speaker 1: the rest of that kind of field. So uh there there.
Speaker 1: It isn't the only path to victory. What do you
Speaker 1: think about this, Junie? What are Democrats saying about Trump
Speaker 1: now this day after here we go again? Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think they have to recognize that he is the
Speaker 1: leading figure, the loudest voice, and certainly he his his
Speaker 1: you know, endorsements do matter. He was able to push
Speaker 1: Vance over the finish line. But let's not forget for
Speaker 1: most of those endorsements were not terribly risky. Probably the
Speaker 1: riskiest one was Vance and he clearly got that. And
Speaker 1: I don't think we should forget the amount of money
Speaker 1: that Peter Teal put into that race. Donald Trump Jr.
Speaker 1: And Tucker Carlson we're all out way ahead of president
Speaker 1: of former president of Trump, and that money mattered. And
Speaker 1: I'm curious to see in Arizona if you know, Trump
Speaker 1: endorses Masters following Teal there as well. Well, I guess
Speaker 1: that's why I asked Rick, if you need to see more.
Speaker 1: You know, we've got not just Arizona coming, We've got Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: We've got Georgia, and and these could all break in
Speaker 1: different ways, That's right. Uh, it could be a mixed bag.
Speaker 1: I doubt if it's going to be what we're talking about,
Speaker 1: you know, later as a repudiation of Donald Trump. But
Speaker 1: he's gonna lose, um, some of these races, and will
Speaker 1: obviously point those out. But but as Genie says, he's
Speaker 1: a factor, and he's going to be a factor. Um.
Speaker 1: But I would say that all these candidates sort of
Speaker 1: circling around him to get a nomination to get through
Speaker 1: the primary. It's just the one step. Uh, This politics
Speaker 1: is a Texas two step. You gotta you gotta land
Speaker 1: that general election victory. And there's a big foot to drop.
Speaker 1: One big boot that's still coming our way, and that's
Speaker 1: the January six commission, And that could be difficult for
Speaker 1: sort of Trump style politicians to want to talk about
Speaker 1: the former president after that. Well, look, we saw what
Speaker 1: happened in Virginia, Genie, there is another recipe. They've got
Speaker 1: Glenn young Can elected. It did not involve Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Some of the issues me a overlapped, But my god,
Speaker 1: we talked up and down about this. He never showed
Speaker 1: up himself. He never did a rally on a stage
Speaker 1: with Glenn Uncan. So what's going to be the national
Speaker 1: recipe or isn't there such thing? You know? Part of
Speaker 1: the reason I've always argued that Youcan was able to
Speaker 1: do that. He did not have to go through this
Speaker 1: primary process that Vance and the others in Ohio have
Speaker 1: had to do, and so that is a huge difference.
Speaker 1: He his his focus was on the general. So I
Speaker 1: think the big comparison is going to be what do
Speaker 1: people like Vance do when they get once do once
Speaker 1: they get to the general and I would say I
Speaker 1: give Tim Ryan a lot of credit. Obviously no competition
Speaker 1: to speak up really out there, but he's been to
Speaker 1: all eight counties so far as he likes to talk about,
Speaker 1: and his focus has been on the middle class, manufacturing
Speaker 1: and economics. He has an uphill battle, but his focus
Speaker 1: is exactly right China, manufacturing and those issues, because that's
Speaker 1: what the voters out there care about. Enter Larry Hogan,
Speaker 1: the governor of Maryland, of course, the Republican governor of Maryland.
Speaker 1: Not a Trump fan. Trump is not a fan of his.
Speaker 1: Everyone knows that. But he had a big speech at
Speaker 1: the at the Reagan Presidential Library this week to deliver,
Speaker 1: with The Washington Post described as a tough love speech
Speaker 1: to his fellow Republicans, calling the Trump era the party's
Speaker 1: worst in generations, in pitching his vision of cross party
Speaker 1: appeal as the only way forward, the words of Aaron Cox,
Speaker 1: I want you to hear what he actually said, because
Speaker 1: you know he went for it. There's no pulling punches here.
Speaker 1: And then have you both respond. Here's Governor Larry Hogan,
Speaker 1: a party that lost the popular vote in seven out
Speaker 1: of the last eight presidential elections, and that couldn't even
Speaker 1: beat Joe Biden is desperately in need of a course correction.
Speaker 1: The truth is, the last election was not rigged, It
Speaker 1: wasn't stolen. We simply didn't offer the majority of voters
Speaker 1: what they were looking for. January six was not enthusiastic
Speaker 1: tourists misbehaving. It was an outrageous attack on our democracy
Speaker 1: incited are the losing candidates inflammatory false rhetoric. The last
Speaker 1: four years were the worst four years for the GOP
Speaker 1: since the nineteen thirties, even worse than after Watergate when
Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan had to rebuild the party from the ashes.
Speaker 1: We lost the White House, the Senate, the House, We
Speaker 1: lost governor's seats, we lost state legislative bodies. You know,
Speaker 1: Trump said, we went in so much we get tired
Speaker 1: of winning. Well, I'm tired of our party losing. WHOA Okay.
Speaker 1: I don't know when the Trump statement comes out or
Speaker 1: he gets a nickname or whatever, but boy, he hit
Speaker 1: all of the notes in in that passage there. Rick Davis. Look,
Speaker 1: I know that he's talked about as a presidential kin tender.
Speaker 1: He's thinking about running. I guess he's waiting to see
Speaker 1: what Trump does here. But is this going to turn into, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, a divided Republican Party where you've got the
Speaker 1: sort of post Trump folks and then you've got the
Speaker 1: Maga folks on the other side, Or is Larry Hogan
Speaker 1: going to end up being fringe this cycle? Uh? Well,
Speaker 1: the two aren't mutually exclusive, right you. You can see
Speaker 1: a division that's been opening up since you know, Donald
Speaker 1: Trump got elected president really within the Republican Party um.
Speaker 1: Uh and and and and that may or may not,
Speaker 1: you know, depending upon where uh Governor Hogan presents himself, uh,
Speaker 1: put him on the fringe. I mean, he is a
Speaker 1: pretty moderate Republican by any normal Republican standards. And yet
Speaker 1: the point I think he's trying to get at is
Speaker 1: there's an opening here with Trump's declining popularity. Even though
Speaker 1: he's helping to win primaries, he uh, he doesn't show
Speaker 1: up as a strong national candidate right now, and most
Speaker 1: of the polls and even members of his own administration
Speaker 1: and people who work for him in the past and
Speaker 1: the elections aren't prepared to walk down that presidential road
Speaker 1: again with him. And so I think the more of
Speaker 1: that gulf is created by people like Larry Hogan showing
Speaker 1: up at the Reagan Library and talking truth to power. Um,
Speaker 1: is I think a healthy dialogue right now for the
Speaker 1: Republican Party. Was he correcting what he said? Sure? I
Speaker 1: hate losing too. I Mean the reason I got into
Speaker 1: politics is because I like the I like the chances
Speaker 1: of winning and and and hated losing and and so
Speaker 1: you know when when when you get elected president, you're
Speaker 1: the you're the head of the party. And when you
Speaker 1: lose the Congress and you lose the Senate and then
Speaker 1: you lose a run for the presidency. Um, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean that's a pretty bad track record to claim
Speaker 1: you want to come back and say, hey, let's do
Speaker 1: this all over again. Genie, does that make you more
Speaker 1: nervous the idea of running against Larry Hogan or Trump
Speaker 1: in twenty four Well, first of all, I was so
Speaker 1: excited to hear Larry Hogan because to me, at me
Speaker 1: as we are in invisible primary money primary time four
Speaker 1: here we come. So as a political junky, I'm so excited.
Speaker 1: But beyond that, Um, you know, I do think that
Speaker 1: obviously Hogan makes some really good points. I mean, Trump
Speaker 1: was you know, I just think back to that first
Speaker 1: debate with Joe Biden when Chris Wallace was sitting there
Speaker 1: with his mouth wide open. He lost this. He did
Speaker 1: this to himself. Just look at these endorsements he's been making.
Speaker 1: Many of these endorsements are simply because the person embrace
Speaker 1: stopped the steal. He is a backward looking person at
Speaker 1: this point as a candidate. That's never a winning message.
Speaker 1: So that is positive for the Republican Party of Larry Hogan.
Speaker 1: Get this message out there, and it's a problem for Democrats.
Speaker 1: Democrats would like nothing more than Donald Trump back on Twitter,
Speaker 1: back talking as much as possible, because, as you know,
Speaker 1: James Carville said, you'd show the crazy and people, even
Speaker 1: if they don't love the Democrat or the other candidate,
Speaker 1: they're gonna go in the other direction. And so that's
Speaker 1: what people cans. The Trump supporters Genie would say, Hey,
Speaker 1: look at this morning, j d Vance one. We pulled
Speaker 1: them out of nowhere. Trump brand is alive. It's alive
Speaker 1: in the Republican primaries. Look at the percentage of people
Speaker 1: going out. You can't win a presidential election that way.
Speaker 1: As as Donald Trump himself saw, you've got to pull independence.
Speaker 1: You've got to pull moderates, you've got to pull women
Speaker 1: from the center, and you can't do that with crazy
Speaker 1: and you can't do it with backward looking. Well, if look,
Speaker 1: if Larry Hogan is making sense to uh to to
Speaker 1: moderate Republicans, Rick, that's a long walk from de Santis, right,
Speaker 1: Never never mind Donald Trump. Is there anyone else in
Speaker 1: the party who's getting attention on this level right now?
Speaker 1: I think that most of the people are getting attention
Speaker 1: right now really are more out of the Trump wing.
Speaker 1: And I think it's a it's a distinguishing feature because
Speaker 1: why would a bunch of Trumpers want to be looking
Speaker 1: like they're running for president if Trump's planning on doing it? Um.
Speaker 1: I actually think that's more meaningful than Larry Hogan, who
Speaker 1: you would expect to oppose a guy like Trump. But
Speaker 1: when you have people like the Santis and others who
Speaker 1: served in Trump's administration going out there and saying, hey,
Speaker 1: I'm interested in being president. Who's Donald Trump? That is
Speaker 1: a meaningful gesture inside a party. So the Ted Cruises,
Speaker 1: the Josh Hollies and so forth, he's there, the Tom
Speaker 1: Cotton's You're waiting to hear more from them, not really.
Speaker 1: They are actively out pursuing presidential campaigns. As Jeanie said,
Speaker 1: the season is in full bloom now. The their lining
Speaker 1: up donors. They're going to Iowa, New Hampshire there, Mike
Speaker 1: putting their list together. Mike Pence is, uh, he's out
Speaker 1: of his bunker now. And uh, he's he's probably celebrating
Speaker 1: with his brother who did get a Trump endorsement and
Speaker 1: got nominated yesterday in Ohio. Uh and uh and and
Speaker 1: I think you know, looking for his lane. They they've
Speaker 1: all got their their strategists looking for which lane can
Speaker 1: I win a nomination from? And none of them are
Speaker 1: in the Trump lane right now. Rick Davis, Jeannie Chanzano
Speaker 1: with us on the Fastest Hour in Politics. If you
Speaker 1: showed up late, subscribe to the Sound on podcasts wherever
Speaker 1: you find your podcasts. Meet you back here tomorrow. I'm
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg