1 00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on 2 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:10,880 Speaker 1: inflation is much too high, and we understand the hardship 3 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: it is causing, and we're moving expeditiously to bring it 4 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: back down the first time since two thousand and sixty, 5 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: the Treasury Department is planning to pay down the national 6 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: Floomberg Sound on Politics, Policy and Perspective from DC's top names. 7 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: Feels even better than I thought it would. Thank you 8 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: all so much, fighting biting, scratching, pension klawn. It's about 9 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: economic freedom for them. Trump said, we we win it 10 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: so much, we get tired of winning. Well, I'm tired 11 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 1: of our party loses. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew 12 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. The Fed brings the biggest interest rate 13 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: hike in twenty two years, as President Biden reveals a 14 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 1: smaller deficit, and the Trump brand remains a force on 15 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: the campaign trail. Welcome to the Fastest Hour in politics 16 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: with the latest on the War on Inflation. Will be 17 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: joined in a moment by Congressman French Hill, Republican from Arkansas, 18 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: member of the House Financial Services Committee, and later with 19 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,759 Speaker 1: Heather Boucher will discuss the same from the White House 20 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors. Getting the view from the Democratic 21 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: point of view the administration and Republicans on the Hill. J. 22 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: D Vance wins the Republicans Senate primary in Ohio. How 23 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 1: about it a convincing when thanks to Donald Trump? Will 24 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 1: discuss it with Bloomberg's Mark Niquette end with our signature 25 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Schanzano and Rick Davis with 26 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 1: us for the hour. J Powell, what asked about a 27 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: possible seventy five bases point move not gonna happen, Get 28 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: used to fifty for the next couple of meetings. This 29 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: after the President spoke a little bit earlier in the 30 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: day about inflation kind of it's really deficit reduction, but 31 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: he was talking about calling again for Congress to raise 32 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: taxes on corporations and the wealthy to drive down the deficit, 33 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: and speaking in fact about new numbers greater deficit reduction 34 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: than for expected announced by the Treasury. I reduced the 35 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: federal deficit. All the talk about the deficit from our 36 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: Republican brands, I love it. I've reduced it three hundred 37 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: and fifty billion dollars in my first year in office, 38 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: and we're on track to reduce it by the end 39 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 1: of September by another one trillion, five hundred billion dollars, 40 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 1: the largest drop ever. I don't want to hear Republicans 41 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:29,239 Speaker 1: talk about deficites and their ultrama agenda. I want to 42 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: hear about fairness. I want to hear about decency. I 43 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 1: want to better help on ordinary people. This is where 44 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 1: we begin with Congressman French Hill, Republican from Arkansas, member 45 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 1: of the House Financial Services Committee, and a former banker himself, 46 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 1: one of the FED whisperers we rely on here at 47 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Congressman, welcome back. When you put all of 48 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 1: this together, the FED getting on board with the interest 49 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: rate hikes that I know you wanted to see start earlier, 50 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: a president who's trumping the idea. Dare I say the 51 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: word trumping? The idea of deficit reduction not a very 52 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 1: sexy topic in the nation's capital. Can should Americans feel 53 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: like we're getting back on track here? Boy? I don't 54 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: know Joe. I think if he if Joe Biden wanted 55 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 1: to really help working Americans, he wouldn't have dumped another 56 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: two trillion dollars of borrowed unfocused, prioritized spending on top 57 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: of the four and a half trillion dollars that we've 58 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: spend every year. And that's what he did last year, 59 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 1: and he was just held back from doing another five 60 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 1: trillion by unhappiness by Joe Manchin. So so you do 61 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: believe that the COVID relief spending helped to prompt this 62 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: inflation that it was it was overboard? I do? I do? 63 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: I do, because when you combine that kind of fiscal 64 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: stimulus concentrated in with the fipartisan COVID release money plus 65 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: what he added in, you combine that with zero interest 66 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: rates in a hundred twenty billion dollars upon by monthly 67 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: by the Fed, you don't have. You can't invent a 68 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: more stimulative demand focused And this is why Larry Summers 69 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: and others economists were warning warning the Biden administrations they 70 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: were playing with fire when you mix that kind of 71 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: fiscal policy and we maintain that aggressive posture by the debt. 72 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: So here we are. Congressman, did did you want the 73 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: Fed to go further today or you like this fifty 74 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: basis point decision? Well? I think I think their decisions too. 75 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 1: I would have gone sooner and we you not talked 76 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: about that. I won't pick up our time today. I 77 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: understand would have started sooner and TETHERD sooner. But fifty 78 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: uh is good and I think getting the balance sheet down. 79 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: But they're going into have a very difficult period because 80 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: they waited so long, and I wish them the best 81 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:47,159 Speaker 1: and I hope that it works out for the whole 82 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: country that we have sold. Yeah. Well, do you hear 83 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 1: Janet yelling yesterday talking about this a soft landing? She says, uh, 84 00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: we'll involve some luck on the car of the FED. 85 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: I believe she said a combination. What was the quote? 86 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: The fedulity to be skillful and also lucky. We know, Congressman, 87 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: it hasn't happened that many times in history. No, and uh, 88 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: we're in an unprecedented situation, if I call it, as 89 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 1: Arthur Burns to the anguish of central banking. When you 90 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: wait too long and the horses out of the corral, 91 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: you really have a hard time getting inflation back under control. 92 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: That's why it's so challenge. So why take seventy five 93 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: basis points off the table, as j Palill seemed to 94 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: do today? Well, I think J. Pale believes that an 95 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 1: important feature of the FED is projecting what they're going 96 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: to do and stick with it and seeing how the 97 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: results calibrate. And he is, I think assessing, is there 98 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 1: any portion of this eleven percent producer price UH annualized 99 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 1: price increases that we're seeing and robust cpis that could 100 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 1: in fact be transitory. So I think he's doing this 101 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: as a way to why to market reaction very carefully 102 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 1: as he shrinks the balance sheet and raises rates at 103 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: the same time. Market loved it. I know the banker 104 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 1: and you is watching the housing market, your ranking member 105 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,160 Speaker 1: of the Housing Subcommittee, and so I have to ask 106 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 1: you about this part of the economy. Mortgage rates are 107 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:20,720 Speaker 1: rising UH inventories that are still historically low, and nowhere 108 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 1: in some markets. Is housing inflation not fixable through rate heights? Congressmen, 109 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 1: uh No. And it's also understated, as you know in 110 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: the c p I and I've been calling for that's 111 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: going to be a driver in the CPI is staying 112 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: elevated all of twenty one, and you've hitted. The March 113 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: numbers are just out home price appreciation. I think March 114 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 1: year over year or sixteen point six per over twenty one, 115 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 1: and that's up from twelve a year ago. So housing 116 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:56,280 Speaker 1: and that's also it's equally robust and rental, and so 117 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: I see housing prices staying elevated. On top of the 118 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: fact that we have rising rates and low inventory. It's 119 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: a perfect storm for high house prices being sustained. And 120 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: we have this thing we haven't seen before, Joe, which 121 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: is people's reassessing where their houses and how much house 122 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: to have because of the pandemic and this work from 123 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: home move. So that's a little bit of a curb 124 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 1: in here in that demand curve. It's going to be 125 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 1: interesting to watch. Well, you know, the story around here 126 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: and in a lot of areas. This is not a Washington, 127 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: d c. Story. It was the same, uh, going back 128 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: over the last several months in markets up and down 129 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: the East and West coasts in the heartland, where people 130 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: are putting down cash offers, no contingencies, don't even need 131 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: to see the house, don't even need to look at 132 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: the house, because it's that competitive. Gallop released a poll 133 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: today showing only thirty of adults I think this is 134 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: a good time to buy a home, which is the 135 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: lowest stance the late seventies Congressman. When does that materialize 136 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: in the market. I know historically you get a big 137 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: sort of gas of buying when rates start going up, 138 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: and then you start to potentially see weakness. Is that 139 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: your expectation, It is my expectation. But I think that 140 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: assessment of people moving because they have more job flexibility, 141 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: and the fact that we have two trillion dollars in 142 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 1: the economy that's excess reserves out their households have over 143 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: two trillion dollars of extra money from pandemic, from savings 144 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: from not taking trips during the pandemic, So that is 145 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 1: fueling down payment demand. Plus people moving from high cost 146 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: areas to low cost areas, people moving from California to Arkansas, 147 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 1: people moving from Connecticut to Florida. That plays into more 148 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:47,439 Speaker 1: buying power, even in the headwinds of price increase and 149 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 1: a higher mortgage. I'll tell you, could you imagine being 150 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: a banker again right now? How do you manage a 151 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 1: market like this? Well, I've been I started my career 152 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,320 Speaker 1: in ninety nine and was a bond trader, So I've 153 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,839 Speaker 1: done it in every cycle, and people will be out 154 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:06,560 Speaker 1: there and they will make money. I had my first 155 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 1: mortgage was in Dallas and it was in the sevens. 156 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: I what was the rate, Yeah, it was in the 157 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 1: sevens in the early the early eighties. And so look, 158 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: people get married, they have to have a house. People 159 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: cope with this, but that's how you we That's why 160 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: I'm worried that this inflation is not transitory and it's 161 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,839 Speaker 1: gonna be a tougher job for our monetary policy leaders. Well, 162 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 1: you know a lot of people have two thousand seven 163 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:32,679 Speaker 1: uh in their minds here, Congressman. I don't know if 164 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: you do as well. But at a certain point, are 165 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 1: we talking out of bubble? Is this is this gonna 166 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 1: be risky for people buying homes right now? You know, 167 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: I don't think so, because of the liquidity and because 168 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 1: we don't have the speculation in the market. We don't 169 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: have those kinds of financial instruments. You're seeing people pay 170 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: over listing price for a house that they want, but 171 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,559 Speaker 1: they're not buying five of them. You know, we had 172 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 1: craziness between two thousand and five and two thousand seven, 173 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: and particularly in recreational real estate areas like Florida. So 174 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: I'm not seeing that kind of speculation. What I'm seeing 175 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 1: is just good old fashioned government driven demand that's boosted prices, 176 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,439 Speaker 1: created inflation, and that's now being reacted to by higher 177 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: interest rates, and we need to build more houses. Congressman 178 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: French Hill, Republican from Arkansas. Always a pleasure to spend 179 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:25,079 Speaker 1: some time with you and appreciate your insights today, Congressman 180 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg, I want to bring in Heather Bouchet 181 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 1: to add a different voice to this conversation, joining us 182 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 1: from the White House, a member of President Biden's Council 183 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 1: of Economic Advisors. Heather, thanks, and welcome back to Bloomberg Radio. Well, 184 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:39,719 Speaker 1: thank you, it's a pleasure to be here, Joe. I've 185 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: got to start with inflation on this FED day, of course, Heather, 186 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: the biggest interest rate hikes since two thousands. I know 187 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: you see the FED as independent, but are you happy 188 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:50,839 Speaker 1: is the economist and you're happy to see the Fed 189 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 1: get more aggressive? Now, Well, you know, we don't comment 190 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:58,680 Speaker 1: on Fed policy. But here's the thing. It is the 191 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 1: Fed's job to cope with inflation. That's in their mandate, 192 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:04,839 Speaker 1: and they're taking the steps that they need to take. 193 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: And we all know that inflation has been high and 194 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: it's been a challenge. There's a number of things that 195 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: the President has a capacity to do to deal with inflation, 196 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: things like making sure the supply chains work and making 197 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: sure that markets function as they should through making sure 198 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 1: that they're competitive, and doing what he can to lower 199 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: gas prices through this crisis in the Ukraine. But the 200 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 1: Fed also has to play its role, and so that's 201 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: you know that that is what they did today. You 202 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 1: know they're certainly at it, and I know the goal 203 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 1: is to get inflation down, but of course there's a 204 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: tough record when it comes to soft landings here. I 205 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 1: was really struck by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's remark uh 206 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 1: this week said the FED will need to be skillful 207 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: and lucky, but it is possible. Um, do you worry 208 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: about a recession being unavoidable? This is the big question 209 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: right now in Washington, as you know how the well, 210 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: you know, I'm an economist and I get up almost 211 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,199 Speaker 1: every day worried about whether or not there's going to 212 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:00,319 Speaker 1: be an extra session. I believe I have a book 213 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: that I co authored with some folks called that Um, 214 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: this is an ongoing, ongoing concern. But you know, here's 215 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:12,079 Speaker 1: the thing. The administration and Congress have done everything they 216 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:15,959 Speaker 1: can to shore up businesses and families and communities to 217 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 1: weather this crisis of the pandemic, and you know, and 218 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: to make sure that we get to this crisis caused 219 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 1: by Putin's unprovoked war in the Ukraine. So there's a 220 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: there's a lot of issues on the horizon because of those, 221 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: but we have seen that the economy is resilient. We've 222 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: seen that we have the tools now to better cope 223 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: with new variants of the pandemic. And we've seen that 224 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 1: even in the faith of you know, ebbs and flows 225 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:46,079 Speaker 1: of the pandemic, the labor market has remained quite strong. 226 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 1: And we've seen that, you know, even as there have 227 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 1: been challenges in growth, we're seeing some strong underlying fundamentals. So, um, 228 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: all of that gives me hope that we are on 229 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: a stable path in terms of loose jobs and investment, 230 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: and that's where the real economy is. Do you have 231 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,839 Speaker 1: a sense of how long the consumer can keep this up? 232 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 1: Just based on the savings rate, based on what we've 233 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 1: been seeing the last couple of quarters, spending just seems 234 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: to continue no matter what happens to inflation. Here, when 235 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:18,079 Speaker 1: does demand destruction begin? Well, you know, household balance sheets 236 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: are in relatively good shape because families were kept hold 237 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:24,839 Speaker 1: during the crisis, and because we brought the unemployment rate down. 238 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 1: So you know, those seven point nine million folks that 239 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 1: have a job now that didn't win Joe Biden took office, 240 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 1: those folks are all out there earning a living and 241 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: they're spending that money. They're doing what Americans do, so 242 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: that that does create a lot of resilience throughout the 243 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 1: economy and and for families. The President spoke today about 244 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: lowering deficits deficit reduction as a way also to fight inflation. Heather, 245 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: here's what he said, bringing down the deficits, there's one 246 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 1: way to ease inflationary pressures in an economy where a 247 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 1: consequence of a war and gas prices and oil and 248 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: food and at all. It's it's a different world right 249 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 1: this moment, because of the Ukraine in Russia. Can you 250 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: help our listeners do the math on this a little bit? 251 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: What is what is a trillion and a half dollars 252 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: in deficit reduction, which I believe is what we're talking 253 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: about here. Uh, these these these new estimates from the Treasury, 254 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: what is that equal in inflation reduction. Is it possible 255 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: to know that? Well, that is a it's a great question. 256 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: Let me start by noting that the reason that we 257 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: are seeing this reduction in the deficit is in large 258 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: part because of the success of the President's policies, because 259 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: of the success of growth. Right saw this record pace 260 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: of growth in US economy, growth faster than any points 261 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: in seventeen eighties, and we saw this sharp uptick in 262 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: jobs and a sharp downtick in the unemployment right down 263 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: to three point six percent. So does that growth that 264 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: created the tax revenue. That means that the deficit is 265 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 1: now coming down more than it would have been otherwise. 266 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 1: So some of what the President's talking about with the 267 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 1: inflation busting is that, um, you know, as folks make 268 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 1: more money, as as businesses sell more, some of that 269 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 1: income is going into the federal government, and it's helping 270 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: us pay off the debt, which maligned you. We haven't 271 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: done anything to pay off the debt since the last administration, 272 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: didn't pay down a penny, and now we're going to 273 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 1: be able to do some of that. So that's pulling 274 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 1: some money out of the economy. But importantly, um, it 275 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: means that we aren't adding to the UH that that 276 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 1: that that the administration is really focused on making sure 277 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: that we're shoring up the economy for the long term, 278 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: but not adding quick hit stimulus. Heather, you talked about 279 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: your writing. You've written about how inequality constricts our economy, 280 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 1: and I have to ask you about a major story 281 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: this week that could have real economic implications, and that 282 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: is the possible overturning of Roe v. Wade. This is 283 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: not something that you and I would normally be talking about, 284 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 1: but here we are today, Heather, and we've had several 285 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: economists tell Bloomberg that this this threatens to reverse decades 286 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: of economic gains by women, especially lower income black and 287 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 1: Hispanic women. How worried are you about this? What would 288 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 1: it actually mean for our economy of the court rules 289 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: in this way. Well, as an economist, I'm extremely worried. 290 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 1: One of the things that we saw over the course 291 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: of the pandemic was that women, especially caregivers, had a 292 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 1: tough time. You know, is even if they had the 293 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: opportunity to telecommute, they had children. You know, if you 294 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: had children at home, those children needed to be cared for. 295 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: Childcare centers shut down, school shut down, We saw how 296 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: hard that was and that people couldn't get to work. 297 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 1: If you don't have care, you can't get to work. UM. 298 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: Denying women the right to choose UM and to have 299 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: reproductive freedom means that you are denying them the ability 300 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 1: to decide how they're going to spend their time and 301 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 1: whether or not they'll be able to participate fully in 302 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: the labor market. There's actually a lot of economic research 303 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: out there now that shows that reproductive rights do give 304 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 1: women that economic opportunity UM and indeed, being forced to 305 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 1: carry a child UH can can lead to economic harms 306 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: because of the losses from jobs and and the like. 307 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 1: It can it can lead to you know, it's it's 308 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: as important as other kinds of dead or bankruptcy in 309 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: in UH limiting women's economic security. And so this is 310 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,159 Speaker 1: really about people being able to have choices in their lives. 311 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 1: They start a conversation, I'm sorry to interrupt, hewther, a 312 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 1: new conversation about how to support women if this in 313 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 1: fact becomes the Supreme Court's rule. Well, it's a it's 314 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: a it's a it's a conversation that has been ongoing. Right. 315 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 1: There are now eleven states in the country that provide 316 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 1: paid family medical leave. There has been a national dialogue 317 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: about whether or not families need a child tax credit, 318 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 1: whether or not families need access to increased support for 319 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 1: childcare and precate. The President has been on the forefront 320 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 1: pushing forward with an agenda around care to support families 321 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 1: and particularly to help mothers and caregivers cope with um 322 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,680 Speaker 1: you know, the daily everything of dealing with getting to 323 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 1: your job and caring for a family. And I think 324 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: those have been the President's priority and they continue to 325 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 1: be incredibly important, especially in the wake of the tether Bouche, 326 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 1: I appreciate your time today, thanks for being with us 327 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg. Thank you. Nowhere else you are going to 328 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 1: hear two conversations like that together, never mind followed by 329 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 1: this panel as we bring in Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie 330 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,679 Speaker 1: Schanzano and Rick Davis. Genie, I'm not sure where to 331 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,199 Speaker 1: begin here. On the inflation front. The White House is 332 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: deferring to the Fed as always, don't want to comment 333 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 1: on what the Fete is doing, but we've got fifty 334 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 1: basis points today and it just so happens the President 335 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: went out with a speech of his own about deficit reduction. 336 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: Is this the best the administration can do to win 337 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:03,360 Speaker 1: over people on the issue? You know, listening to Heather Bouche, 338 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 1: I think she should be out making the argument that 339 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 1: the White House needs to make. I mean, her cogent 340 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: argument about the impact, the economic impact on women is 341 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: exactly what the administrative administration rather needs to say. I 342 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: do think the President is smart to point to the deficit. 343 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: It is incredibly important for them to point out, as 344 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 1: he said, the hypocrisy on the other side talking about 345 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 1: the deficit and not pushing it down. But also it 346 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 1: is a message to Joe Mansion, because Joe Mansion has 347 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,120 Speaker 1: been going out and saying it's all about inflation, it's 348 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: all about the deficit, and so Biden also needs to 349 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 1: talk to him. So I think it's a smart argument, 350 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 1: but I'm not sure it's going to change the hearts 351 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 1: and minds of Americans as you look at the latest polls. 352 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: Don't know what he cared about the deficit, Rick Davis, 353 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: Republicans care about the deficit. Don't count herself out. Look, 354 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,400 Speaker 1: we haven't had a long time since Republicans cared about 355 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 1: the deficit, and it's refreshing to see a Democratic president 356 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: who just spent four trillion dollars and public works programs 357 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:05,639 Speaker 1: and and relief funding. UH to be talking about the deficit. 358 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 1: But look, I mean, that's why you have growth. Growth 359 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,880 Speaker 1: makes up for a lot of bad public policy, and 360 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 1: in this case, the president has taken advantage of that, 361 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: and so they've gone out of their way a little. 362 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 1: Remind everybody that Donald Trump never reduced the deficit, never 363 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:21,679 Speaker 1: lose the deficit, but he did create a lot of 364 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:25,159 Speaker 1: the economic growth that UH was already in place when 365 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: when Joe Biden took over. And I think, you know, 366 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 1: they both deserve credit. I mean, I think the Bush, 367 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: the Trump tax cuts, you know, I helped fuel economic 368 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,679 Speaker 1: expansion in the time of COVID was really one of 369 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 1: the worst and UH and Biden didn't do anything to 370 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 1: get in the way of that. So it's not like 371 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 1: you raised taxes and put more you know, breaks on 372 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 1: the economy. UM. So it's it's it's actually refreshing on 373 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: a day when the Fed is raising interest rates to 374 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 1: have a conversation about, you know, the federal government has 375 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,120 Speaker 1: actually been able to pay back some of its deficits. 376 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: So so I'm getting two thumbs up here from you. 377 00:20:55,600 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 1: This is I understand. Okay, you're setting me straight here, Genie. 378 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 1: You know about half the speech he veered into this 379 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 1: Maga agenda. Portion of the address talking about what Rick 380 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 1: Scott is proposing even sounded kind of upset at one 381 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: point where he's thumping the podium and yelling about the 382 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: social security I'll let you listen. Under this new plan, 383 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: this tax plan, the Ultramaga agenda, while big corporations and 384 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: billionaires are gonna pay nothing more, the working class folks 385 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 1: are gonna pay help a lot more. And it goes 386 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: further than that. This extreme Republican agenda calls for Congress. 387 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 1: This is I'm not making this up either. You gotta 388 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: really think about this. It requires a vote. If it 389 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: were to pass, every five years, the Congress would have 390 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:51,439 Speaker 1: to vote to reinstate or eliminate Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. 391 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: SoC Security something seniors have paid him for their whole life, 392 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: and it has to be reauthorized. What are we doing 393 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: with this messaging here, Jeannie? Uh? It was was that? 394 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,479 Speaker 1: It was that a poke? Uh, Mitch McConnell, Why are 395 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,880 Speaker 1: we bringing up Rick Scott's proposal when you're up there 396 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,240 Speaker 1: talking about your own achievements. You know, the two arguments 397 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,640 Speaker 1: Democrats need to make on the campaign trail, the one 398 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 1: Heather Bouchet made about women and this one. Keep talking 399 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 1: about Rick Scott's plan. There's a reason that Mitch McConnell 400 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 1: said to Rick Scott shot up, essentially because that is 401 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:28,239 Speaker 1: deadly for Republicans and the President nailed it today and 402 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 1: talking about that. They wanted to show that they're fiscally responsible. 403 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 1: They want to talk about the GOP tax law, and 404 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,479 Speaker 1: they want to talk about Rick Scott's tax plan because 405 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 1: nothing's gonna get seniors out to vote for Democrats like 406 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,800 Speaker 1: the threat of Rick Scott's plan. But Mitch McConnell doesn't 407 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 1: want Rick Scott's plan, right, Rick was this also just 408 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 1: kind of a broadside at against Mitch here from the 409 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: other side of Pennsylvania Avenue, knowing that Rick Scott would 410 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 1: like to be majority leader. No. I think really they've 411 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: figured out what we've been talking about for some time, Joe, 412 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,639 Speaker 1: that they've got to nationalize this election. Uh. If the 413 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 1: elections held on the terms that were going into this weekend, 414 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 1: they're gonna get slaughtered. And so uh, I think Biden 415 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: rightly is fixated on you know, this Ultramaga policy Trump policy. Uh, 416 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 1: and they're gonna try to nationalize the election. And and obviously, look, 417 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:24,360 Speaker 1: Rick Scott gave himself a Sitting Duck award. I mean, 418 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: you know, he puts out this insane policy that only 419 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: he endorses. Uh. But as policy director of the Caucus 420 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: in the Senate, you know that's his job and his 421 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 1: job to get people re elected. Rick and Genie with 422 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,360 Speaker 1: us for the hour our signature panel on sound ub Boy. 423 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 1: We've covered a lot already and we have a lot 424 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: more to go here. If you were watching last night, 425 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 1: the president may be talking about the MAGA agenda. But 426 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 1: jd Vance one, this is Bloomberg. It was a very 427 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: good night for jd Vance, which means it was a 428 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 1: very good night for Donald Trump. They wanted to write 429 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 1: a story that this campaign would be the death of 430 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's America First Agenda. Ladies and gentlemen, it ain't 431 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 1: the death of the America First Agenda. J. D Vance 432 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: wins with a commanding leader, convincing turnout here what eight 433 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 1: nine points over Josh Mandel, defeating six candidates in all 434 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: thanks in large part, as we've discussed here on Sound 435 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: on to his endorsement by Donald Trump, brought him out 436 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: from the middle back of the pack, made the whole 437 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 1: difference in the outcome of this race. And so Helo 438 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: sets himself up. I should say, for a race against 439 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 1: ten term Congressman Democrat Tim Ryan, average people working their 440 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 1: rear ends off, trying to make ends meet, fighting biting straction, 441 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 1: pension klawn right, it's about economic freedom for them, climbing 442 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 1: to the top. Enough money to have a vacation, enough 443 00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:01,879 Speaker 1: money to pay the bills, enough money, that's a economic freedom. 444 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 1: That's what this campaign is about. An easy win for 445 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,679 Speaker 1: Congressman Ryan as he was appealing the blue collar voters 446 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: in the state. We'll see who is better at that 447 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 1: now in the general election. And we're joined again to 448 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 1: talk about it by Bloomberg. Smart Nikka, who has been 449 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,640 Speaker 1: living on the campaign trail and was deep in this campaign, 450 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 1: deep in this race in Ohio, was at several Trump 451 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,920 Speaker 1: rallies that brought us to this point. Mark, welcome back. 452 00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 1: I guess the Trump brand is very much still alive. Yeah. 453 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 1: People were watching to see whether Donald Trump's endorsement had 454 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: still had the power to in this case lift a 455 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 1: candidate like j d Vance from as you said in 456 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 1: your intro, the middle of the pack to victory, and 457 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: looks like that's exactly what happened. I mean, j d 458 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 1: Vance ran a good campaign that put him in a 459 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: position to take advantage of the Trump endorsement. Certainly, but um, 460 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: I don't think there's any way to read the results 461 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,920 Speaker 1: other than that Trump's endorsement got him over the finish line. 462 00:25:58,119 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 1: Not just that, but I mean to take that take 463 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: out Mandel by a convincing margin was significant, right, they 464 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: were in a couple of polls, they were within points 465 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,199 Speaker 1: of each other. They were, and as you said, it 466 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 1: didn't return out to be all that close, although it 467 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,360 Speaker 1: was a multi candidate field and people weren't sure exactly 468 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:20,360 Speaker 1: how it would turn out because in this case one 469 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 1: um the primary, even though it was a comfortable lead 470 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 1: over Mandel. Um. And now we're facing an interesting general 471 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 1: election race. We are because as you as you mentioned, 472 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: um Tim Ryan from from the Youngstown areas. It's an 473 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 1: old industrial area, um steel mills that are long since 474 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,880 Speaker 1: gone in a scenaria where they were formerly Democrats predominantly 475 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 1: who in the age of Trump became Republicans. They went 476 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 1: and all in on Trump and his economic message, and 477 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 1: Tim Ryan is trying to sort of adopt that approach, 478 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 1: where his whole campaign has been about, you know, economic 479 00:26:55,520 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 1: issues affecting working class voters to the extent that h J. D. 480 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 1: Ryan at is an election night party last night said 481 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 1: Ryan is running as a Trump Democrat, is how he 482 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 1: put it. Um. So we're sort of setting up an 483 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 1: interesting fight in Ohio between sort of the competing brands 484 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 1: of economic populism. Yeah. So you've got a conservative populist 485 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 1: here running against a moderate Democrat who likes yoga. How 486 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 1: does that play in in in the new Ohio? Well, 487 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,280 Speaker 1: this is what we're gonna find out, because Ohio has been, 488 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 1: you know, forever sort of the quintessential swing state, purple 489 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:35,159 Speaker 1: battleground state. UM. But under Trump, but it feels like 490 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 1: it's it's become more Republican. Trump won the state twice 491 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 1: by eight percentage points. Uh. And the feeling is, you know, 492 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,640 Speaker 1: the Republican has an advantage starting out in the general 493 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,600 Speaker 1: election j D. Advance. But we're gonna see because Tim 494 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,199 Speaker 1: Ryan is gonna produce a campaign that really focuses on 495 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:56,440 Speaker 1: these economic you know, working class issues, kitchen table issues, 496 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: UM and try and you know, hold democrats who who 497 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,159 Speaker 1: you know might be UH in the past, you know, 498 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,880 Speaker 1: susceptible to to going over to the Republican side, try 499 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 1: to keep them in the Democratic column and and still 500 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,920 Speaker 1: win a statewide in recent Ohio find his column on 501 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 1: the terminal. Mark Niquette all over this. We appreciate it. Mark, 502 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 1: thanks for being with us on sound On as we 503 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:19,880 Speaker 1: bring the panel back in on this, I do want 504 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 1: to get insights from both Rick and Genie. Rick, You've 505 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 1: seen Ohio change over the years. How would you describe 506 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 1: it now? You know, back to the beginning. You know, 507 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 1: when we were campaigning there in nineteen eighty with Ronald Reagan, 508 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 1: we were looking for those same kind of you know, 509 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: working class Steele County UH Democrats to become Republicans and 510 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 1: and Ronald Reagan had a lot of success. We then 511 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:51,560 Speaker 1: moved into sort of the suburban mode. And with the 512 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 1: state of Ohio, you have you know, a dozen media markets, 513 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 1: you know, half a dozen major cities. Suburbs matter there 514 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 1: and Republican drank from the victory cup more often than 515 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: not because they were able to mobilize suburban voters. Now 516 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 1: we're right back to those same you know, white collar 517 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,080 Speaker 1: or blue collar workers in the you know collars of 518 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: those cities no longer the suburbs really trying to put 519 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 1: together a victory. And look, I think it goes without saying. 520 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 1: One of the things that's interesting about this election is 521 00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 1: that even though Vance won by handy margin over Mandel, 522 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 1: vast majority of Republicans voted against him. And the question 523 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 1: is he had enough transgressions against Trump in the past 524 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 1: to sort of ward them off. He needs all those 525 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 1: Republicans to be on his coalition, and I'd say the 526 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 1: first order of business for him is going to be consolidation. 527 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 1: He needs those Republicans. Genie. And as we just discussed 528 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 1: in in Uh in a prior conversation this hour, this 529 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 1: abortion issue could in fact disrupt the way things go 530 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 1: in the suburbs. What do you see happening in the general? 531 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 1: You know, it could. I am not convinced yet, but 532 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 1: I think we really don't know yet. I am not 533 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 1: convinced that it is going to be the winning issue 534 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 1: for Democrats. I think it can be motivating. They do 535 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 1: need to get women out. They knew need to take 536 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 1: back some of these suburban Republican women that they had 537 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 1: in eighteen and twenty, so it could be useful for that. 538 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 1: The most important thing, though, is going to be the 539 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 1: economy and inflation, and the most important thing is going 540 00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 1: to be that Democrats are able to show that the 541 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 1: Republican candidates nominated are extreme, and that's what they're working 542 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,440 Speaker 1: to do with people like vance. Rick and j are 543 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 1: going to come back in a moment. You know, Donald 544 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 1: Trump had a big night. All twenty two of his 545 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 1: endorsed candidates in Ohio and Indiana won their races. But 546 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:45,000 Speaker 1: there's one Republican governor who looks at things very differently, 547 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 1: and he's calling out Donald Trump setting up what could 548 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 1: be an interesting presidential campaign. That's next. You're listening to Bloomberg. 549 00:30:53,400 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 1: You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It's 550 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,720 Speaker 1: no coincidence that President Biden is heading for Ohio on Friday. 551 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 1: Right now that we have a race in general election, 552 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 1: he can actually start getting into this. Pushed Jim Ryan 553 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:15,479 Speaker 1: promote the computer chip plant that Intel is building near Columbus. Right, 554 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 1: you can already hear the speech. Let's reassemble the panel 555 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: now with Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Chantano and Rick Davis. 556 00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 1: It was not just J. D. E. Vance who won 557 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 1: a Republican primary last night, Rick All twenty two, as 558 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: I read of the candidates endorsed by Donald Trump in 559 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 1: Ohio and Indiana one, so as he proven the skeptics 560 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 1: wrong this cycle, or do you need to see more? Well? Um, 561 00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,360 Speaker 1: certainly is a good first outing and and I think 562 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,719 Speaker 1: we will be seeing more. Right, there are other candidates 563 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:46,200 Speaker 1: who are gonna be running in the month of May, 564 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,320 Speaker 1: and we're gonna see in that effect. Obviously, his endorsement 565 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 1: is paid off in in in Ohio, but it's not necessary. 566 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,120 Speaker 1: I mean, Mike the Wine, who's a pope heart governor 567 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 1: of Ohi certainly wouldn't be our Ohio certainly wouldn't be 568 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: uh called a Trump Republican. Uh probably performed better than 569 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 1: the rest of that kind of field. So uh there there. 570 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 1: It isn't the only path to victory. What do you 571 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 1: think about this, Junie? What are Democrats saying about Trump 572 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:16,320 Speaker 1: now this day after here we go again? Yeah, I mean, 573 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,160 Speaker 1: I think they have to recognize that he is the 574 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:24,120 Speaker 1: leading figure, the loudest voice, and certainly he his his 575 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 1: you know, endorsements do matter. He was able to push 576 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,440 Speaker 1: Vance over the finish line. But let's not forget for 577 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:34,280 Speaker 1: most of those endorsements were not terribly risky. Probably the 578 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 1: riskiest one was Vance and he clearly got that. And 579 00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 1: I don't think we should forget the amount of money 580 00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 1: that Peter Teal put into that race. Donald Trump Jr. 581 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 1: And Tucker Carlson we're all out way ahead of president 582 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,760 Speaker 1: of former president of Trump, and that money mattered. And 583 00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 1: I'm curious to see in Arizona if you know, Trump 584 00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 1: endorses Masters following Teal there as well. Well, I guess 585 00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:58,800 Speaker 1: that's why I asked Rick, if you need to see more. 586 00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 1: You know, we've got not just Arizona coming, We've got Pennsylvania, 587 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 1: We've got Georgia, and and these could all break in 588 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,960 Speaker 1: different ways, That's right. Uh, it could be a mixed bag. 589 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 1: I doubt if it's going to be what we're talking about, 590 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: you know, later as a repudiation of Donald Trump. But 591 00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,560 Speaker 1: he's gonna lose, um, some of these races, and will 592 00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:22,600 Speaker 1: obviously point those out. But but as Genie says, he's 593 00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,280 Speaker 1: a factor, and he's going to be a factor. Um. 594 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 1: But I would say that all these candidates sort of 595 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,800 Speaker 1: circling around him to get a nomination to get through 596 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 1: the primary. It's just the one step. Uh, This politics 597 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,720 Speaker 1: is a Texas two step. You gotta you gotta land 598 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,240 Speaker 1: that general election victory. And there's a big foot to drop. 599 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 1: One big boot that's still coming our way, and that's 600 00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,600 Speaker 1: the January six commission, And that could be difficult for 601 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,880 Speaker 1: sort of Trump style politicians to want to talk about 602 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 1: the former president after that. Well, look, we saw what 603 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:56,160 Speaker 1: happened in Virginia, Genie, there is another recipe. They've got 604 00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,760 Speaker 1: Glenn young Can elected. It did not involve Donald Trump. 605 00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 1: Some of the issues me a overlapped, But my god, 606 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 1: we talked up and down about this. He never showed 607 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,840 Speaker 1: up himself. He never did a rally on a stage 608 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:10,840 Speaker 1: with Glenn Uncan. So what's going to be the national 609 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,719 Speaker 1: recipe or isn't there such thing? You know? Part of 610 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,880 Speaker 1: the reason I've always argued that Youcan was able to 611 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,040 Speaker 1: do that. He did not have to go through this 612 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,799 Speaker 1: primary process that Vance and the others in Ohio have 613 00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 1: had to do, and so that is a huge difference. 614 00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,239 Speaker 1: He his his focus was on the general. So I 615 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:28,400 Speaker 1: think the big comparison is going to be what do 616 00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:30,879 Speaker 1: people like Vance do when they get once do once 617 00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,120 Speaker 1: they get to the general and I would say I 618 00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,080 Speaker 1: give Tim Ryan a lot of credit. Obviously no competition 619 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 1: to speak up really out there, but he's been to 620 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,400 Speaker 1: all eight counties so far as he likes to talk about, 621 00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 1: and his focus has been on the middle class, manufacturing 622 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 1: and economics. He has an uphill battle, but his focus 623 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 1: is exactly right China, manufacturing and those issues, because that's 624 00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 1: what the voters out there care about. Enter Larry Hogan, 625 00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:59,320 Speaker 1: the governor of Maryland, of course, the Republican governor of Maryland. 626 00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:01,960 Speaker 1: Not a Trump fan. Trump is not a fan of his. 627 00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 1: Everyone knows that. But he had a big speech at 628 00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:08,440 Speaker 1: the at the Reagan Presidential Library this week to deliver, 629 00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 1: with The Washington Post described as a tough love speech 630 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:16,000 Speaker 1: to his fellow Republicans, calling the Trump era the party's 631 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:20,400 Speaker 1: worst in generations, in pitching his vision of cross party 632 00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,480 Speaker 1: appeal as the only way forward, the words of Aaron Cox, 633 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,240 Speaker 1: I want you to hear what he actually said, because 634 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,000 Speaker 1: you know he went for it. There's no pulling punches here. 635 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 1: And then have you both respond. Here's Governor Larry Hogan, 636 00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 1: a party that lost the popular vote in seven out 637 00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:42,680 Speaker 1: of the last eight presidential elections, and that couldn't even 638 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:48,560 Speaker 1: beat Joe Biden is desperately in need of a course correction. 639 00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:55,239 Speaker 1: The truth is, the last election was not rigged, It 640 00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:59,560 Speaker 1: wasn't stolen. We simply didn't offer the majority of voters 641 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:05,920 Speaker 1: what they were looking for. January six was not enthusiastic 642 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:11,439 Speaker 1: tourists misbehaving. It was an outrageous attack on our democracy 643 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:17,719 Speaker 1: incited are the losing candidates inflammatory false rhetoric. The last 644 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:21,520 Speaker 1: four years were the worst four years for the GOP 645 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 1: since the nineteen thirties, even worse than after Watergate when 646 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,560 Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan had to rebuild the party from the ashes. 647 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:34,040 Speaker 1: We lost the White House, the Senate, the House, We 648 00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 1: lost governor's seats, we lost state legislative bodies. You know, 649 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:39,960 Speaker 1: Trump said, we went in so much we get tired 650 00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:44,600 Speaker 1: of winning. Well, I'm tired of our party losing. WHOA Okay. 651 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:49,279 Speaker 1: I don't know when the Trump statement comes out or 652 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,520 Speaker 1: he gets a nickname or whatever, but boy, he hit 653 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:57,799 Speaker 1: all of the notes in in that passage there. Rick Davis. Look, 654 00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,440 Speaker 1: I know that he's talked about as a presidential kin tender. 655 00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,040 Speaker 1: He's thinking about running. I guess he's waiting to see 656 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:07,600 Speaker 1: what Trump does here. But is this going to turn into, uh, 657 00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,360 Speaker 1: you know, a divided Republican Party where you've got the 658 00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,120 Speaker 1: sort of post Trump folks and then you've got the 659 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,880 Speaker 1: Maga folks on the other side, Or is Larry Hogan 660 00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:21,640 Speaker 1: going to end up being fringe this cycle? Uh? Well, 661 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,719 Speaker 1: the two aren't mutually exclusive, right you. You can see 662 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:28,480 Speaker 1: a division that's been opening up since you know, Donald 663 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 1: Trump got elected president really within the Republican Party um. 664 00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,239 Speaker 1: Uh and and and and that may or may not, 665 00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 1: you know, depending upon where uh Governor Hogan presents himself, uh, 666 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:41,960 Speaker 1: put him on the fringe. I mean, he is a 667 00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 1: pretty moderate Republican by any normal Republican standards. And yet 668 00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,440 Speaker 1: the point I think he's trying to get at is 669 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,759 Speaker 1: there's an opening here with Trump's declining popularity. Even though 670 00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,239 Speaker 1: he's helping to win primaries, he uh, he doesn't show 671 00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,759 Speaker 1: up as a strong national candidate right now, and most 672 00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,040 Speaker 1: of the polls and even members of his own administration 673 00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:05,920 Speaker 1: and people who work for him in the past and 674 00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,520 Speaker 1: the elections aren't prepared to walk down that presidential road 675 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:11,600 Speaker 1: again with him. And so I think the more of 676 00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:15,040 Speaker 1: that gulf is created by people like Larry Hogan showing 677 00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:18,960 Speaker 1: up at the Reagan Library and talking truth to power. Um, 678 00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,480 Speaker 1: is I think a healthy dialogue right now for the 679 00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:26,040 Speaker 1: Republican Party. Was he correcting what he said? Sure? I 680 00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:27,839 Speaker 1: hate losing too. I Mean the reason I got into 681 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,600 Speaker 1: politics is because I like the I like the chances 682 00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,480 Speaker 1: of winning and and and hated losing and and so 683 00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:36,000 Speaker 1: you know when when when you get elected president, you're 684 00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,400 Speaker 1: the you're the head of the party. And when you 685 00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,520 Speaker 1: lose the Congress and you lose the Senate and then 686 00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:44,320 Speaker 1: you lose a run for the presidency. Um, yeah, yeah, 687 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,640 Speaker 1: I mean that's a pretty bad track record to claim 688 00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:48,200 Speaker 1: you want to come back and say, hey, let's do 689 00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:51,799 Speaker 1: this all over again. Genie, does that make you more 690 00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,960 Speaker 1: nervous the idea of running against Larry Hogan or Trump 691 00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,279 Speaker 1: in twenty four Well, first of all, I was so 692 00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,840 Speaker 1: excited to hear Larry Hogan because to me, at me 693 00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:03,879 Speaker 1: as we are in invisible primary money primary time four 694 00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:07,040 Speaker 1: here we come. So as a political junky, I'm so excited. 695 00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,400 Speaker 1: But beyond that, Um, you know, I do think that 696 00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:14,320 Speaker 1: obviously Hogan makes some really good points. I mean, Trump 697 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,959 Speaker 1: was you know, I just think back to that first 698 00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,480 Speaker 1: debate with Joe Biden when Chris Wallace was sitting there 699 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,359 Speaker 1: with his mouth wide open. He lost this. He did 700 00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,840 Speaker 1: this to himself. Just look at these endorsements he's been making. 701 00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:29,880 Speaker 1: Many of these endorsements are simply because the person embrace 702 00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,560 Speaker 1: stopped the steal. He is a backward looking person at 703 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,320 Speaker 1: this point as a candidate. That's never a winning message. 704 00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:39,800 Speaker 1: So that is positive for the Republican Party of Larry Hogan. 705 00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:43,080 Speaker 1: Get this message out there, and it's a problem for Democrats. 706 00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,960 Speaker 1: Democrats would like nothing more than Donald Trump back on Twitter, 707 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,440 Speaker 1: back talking as much as possible, because, as you know, 708 00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:54,000 Speaker 1: James Carville said, you'd show the crazy and people, even 709 00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,480 Speaker 1: if they don't love the Democrat or the other candidate, 710 00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,439 Speaker 1: they're gonna go in the other direction. And so that's 711 00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,359 Speaker 1: what people cans. The Trump supporters Genie would say, Hey, 712 00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,719 Speaker 1: look at this morning, j d Vance one. We pulled 713 00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:08,680 Speaker 1: them out of nowhere. Trump brand is alive. It's alive 714 00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:12,280 Speaker 1: in the Republican primaries. Look at the percentage of people 715 00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,120 Speaker 1: going out. You can't win a presidential election that way. 716 00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,879 Speaker 1: As as Donald Trump himself saw, you've got to pull independence. 717 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:20,960 Speaker 1: You've got to pull moderates, you've got to pull women 718 00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,200 Speaker 1: from the center, and you can't do that with crazy 719 00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:26,719 Speaker 1: and you can't do it with backward looking. Well, if look, 720 00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,759 Speaker 1: if Larry Hogan is making sense to uh to to 721 00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:35,600 Speaker 1: moderate Republicans, Rick, that's a long walk from de Santis, right, 722 00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,680 Speaker 1: Never never mind Donald Trump. Is there anyone else in 723 00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:41,120 Speaker 1: the party who's getting attention on this level right now? 724 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,560 Speaker 1: I think that most of the people are getting attention 725 00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,520 Speaker 1: right now really are more out of the Trump wing. 726 00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,440 Speaker 1: And I think it's a it's a distinguishing feature because 727 00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:55,400 Speaker 1: why would a bunch of Trumpers want to be looking 728 00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,880 Speaker 1: like they're running for president if Trump's planning on doing it? Um. 729 00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,040 Speaker 1: I actually think that's more meaningful than Larry Hogan, who 730 00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:04,680 Speaker 1: you would expect to oppose a guy like Trump. But 731 00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,600 Speaker 1: when you have people like the Santis and others who 732 00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,560 Speaker 1: served in Trump's administration going out there and saying, hey, 733 00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:14,279 Speaker 1: I'm interested in being president. Who's Donald Trump? That is 734 00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:18,000 Speaker 1: a meaningful gesture inside a party. So the Ted Cruises, 735 00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:20,560 Speaker 1: the Josh Hollies and so forth, he's there, the Tom 736 00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:24,720 Speaker 1: Cotton's You're waiting to hear more from them, not really. 737 00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:29,120 Speaker 1: They are actively out pursuing presidential campaigns. As Jeanie said, 738 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:33,400 Speaker 1: the season is in full bloom now. The their lining 739 00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,440 Speaker 1: up donors. They're going to Iowa, New Hampshire there, Mike 740 00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:40,160 Speaker 1: putting their list together. Mike Pence is, uh, he's out 741 00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,680 Speaker 1: of his bunker now. And uh, he's he's probably celebrating 742 00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:46,160 Speaker 1: with his brother who did get a Trump endorsement and 743 00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:50,239 Speaker 1: got nominated yesterday in Ohio. Uh and uh and and 744 00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,520 Speaker 1: I think you know, looking for his lane. They they've 745 00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:56,239 Speaker 1: all got their their strategists looking for which lane can 746 00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:58,560 Speaker 1: I win a nomination from? And none of them are 747 00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:02,400 Speaker 1: in the Trump lane right now. Rick Davis, Jeannie Chanzano 748 00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,680 Speaker 1: with us on the Fastest Hour in Politics. If you 749 00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:09,040 Speaker 1: showed up late, subscribe to the Sound on podcasts wherever 750 00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:12,520 Speaker 1: you find your podcasts. Meet you back here tomorrow. I'm 751 00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:14,480 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg