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Speaker 2: Richie Suna calls it general election for the fourth of July.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the fastest show in politics with breaking news
Speaker 2: on both sides of the Atlantic today in the world
Speaker 2: of politics. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington
Speaker 2: and Klee it seems the Prime Minister thought earlier was better.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we thought that the UK might have an election
Speaker 3: in the fall.
Speaker 4: Not so.
Speaker 3: It will happen in July, just about six weeks from now,
Speaker 3: an announcement that caught many by surprise today on both
Speaker 3: sides of the pond. And certainly that is the case
Speaker 3: for our wonderful Bloomberg team, who is standing by, including
Speaker 3: Lizzie Burden who is outside ten Downing Street right. Wow,
Speaker 3: as we speak, after just in the last hour we
Speaker 3: heard from Rishi Sunac himself calling for this election on
Speaker 3: the fourth of July. Lizzie, why now, Well.
Speaker 4: Kaylie, you know, we Brits like to talk about the weather,
Speaker 4: but you'll have to excuse me. I'm going to have
Speaker 4: to do it. Richie Sunac came out in one of
Speaker 4: his expensive suits and it got soaked. I'm sure he
Speaker 4: could afford another. Why has he chosen July. Well, it's
Speaker 4: no coincidence that UK inflation was announced as having falled
Speaker 4: to two point three percent in April today this morning,
Speaker 4: and Rishi Sunac says that's back to normal, near enough
Speaker 4: for him to the Bank of England's two percent target.
Speaker 4: So he wants to present to the nation that the
Speaker 4: economy has turned a corner under his watch. But it's
Speaker 4: not just monetary reasons. It's also fiscal Recent public finance
Speaker 4: data and warnings from the IMF suggests that any hope
Speaker 4: of tax cuts in an autumn budget wouldn't really be
Speaker 4: possible because they might not have the wriggle room. And
Speaker 4: just finally, political reasons. They want to make immigrants front
Speaker 4: and center of this campaign. They might have been able
Speaker 4: to send a flight to Rwanda with asylum seekers on
Speaker 4: board by that date. So this election on July the
Speaker 4: fourth could be a very very different one from the
Speaker 4: one in twenty nineteen, the last one here in the UK.
Speaker 4: This won't be about Brexit, It'll be about health, immigration
Speaker 4: and the economy.
Speaker 2: Pretty incredible when you consider the timeline here, Lizzie. We're
Speaker 2: in the process of covering the longest presidential election the
Speaker 2: general election in modern American history. How do you compress
Speaker 2: a campaign into five to six weeks and deliver a message?
Speaker 2: What will this look like for him?
Speaker 4: Well, the whole time, Rishi Sunak's been in number ten
Speaker 4: Downing Street, He's been campaigning on the economy. His top
Speaker 4: priority was to harm inflation. By the end of last year,
Speaker 4: it happened and now inflation is at two point three percent.
Speaker 4: But really can he take credit for that when it's
Speaker 4: the Bank of England's job to reduce inflation? Really as
Speaker 4: we know, But look, Rishie Sunac has also been campaigning
Speaker 4: on immigration and the NHS. But at the moment things
Speaker 4: aren't looking so good on those two factors. In the
Speaker 4: healthcare for example, look at NHS waiting lists part of
Speaker 4: the reason for the economic inactivity problem here in the UK,
Speaker 4: which factors back into inflation. But the poll gap between
Speaker 4: the ruling Conservatives and the Labor Party just has not
Speaker 4: been shrinking, so he's not naturally a risk taker. But
Speaker 4: he's decided to roll the dice and call an election
Speaker 4: earlier than everybody in Westminster really had expected. Most had
Speaker 4: thought it would be autumn.
Speaker 3: Well, Lizzie, as you mentioned the Labor Party and how
Speaker 3: in fact they are leading substantially in the polls. It's
Speaker 3: been fourteen years since they were in power, the Conservatives
Speaker 3: have been in power since twenty ten. Just how great
Speaker 3: of a change could this bring to the UK, assuming
Speaker 3: that the polls are right and Keir Starmer replaces Rishi Sunac.
Speaker 4: Well, Keir Starmer made his own speech following Rishi Sunacs
Speaker 4: and he's keen to emphasize not just the change that
Speaker 4: he could deliver from Rishi Sunac, but also from his
Speaker 4: predecessor as the Labor leader, Jeremy Corbyn. He presents that
Speaker 4: he's made a huge turnaround within the party on anti Semitism,
Speaker 4: but he also presents that he could provide stability unlike that.
Speaker 4: We've the instability that we've seen in the Conservative Party.
Speaker 4: We've had Boris Johnson, Liz Trust and now Rishi Sunac
Speaker 4: since the twenty nineteen election. And I have to say
Speaker 4: I've been to both the party conferences from Labor and
Speaker 4: the Conservatives over recent years, and over that time business
Speaker 4: has seen the value in the Labor Party and they
Speaker 4: have been flocking to pitch what they want to who
Speaker 4: the polls suggest are going to be government.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden outside Number ten downing. Lizzie, thank you
Speaker 2: so much for joining us with breaking news today. This
Speaker 2: just emerged in the last couple of hours, Kayley, and
Speaker 2: pretty remarkable. They're going to be often running already on
Speaker 2: a five to six week sprint. That will of course
Speaker 2: be covering right here on Balance of Power, with our
Speaker 2: other top story today being the new Bloomberg News Morning
Speaker 2: consult Swing State Pole numbers hit this morning, bringing potentially
Speaker 2: good and bad news to Joe Biden. The fact of
Speaker 2: the matter is Joe Biden Cayley still trails Donald Trump
Speaker 2: by four percentage points when you look at our numbers
Speaker 2: from across the seven states that we've identified. But when
Speaker 2: it comes to the blue Wall, there might be some
Speaker 2: glimmers of hope. And we don't want to mischaracterize this.
Speaker 2: If the election we're held today, according to our poll,
Speaker 2: Donald Trump would win.
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, Joe Biden will very likely need the
Speaker 3: blue wall if he would like to win. Those are
Speaker 3: the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In all of those,
Speaker 3: Biden and Trump are separated by no more than two
Speaker 3: percentage points. So it is incredibly close. And that's just
Speaker 3: another thing that speaks to how turnout ultimately is going
Speaker 3: to be so consequential in this left.
Speaker 2: We're going to get to the horse race now with
Speaker 2: Eli Yoakley with our partners at Morning Console. But also
Speaker 2: some fascinating revelations here to learn that equal shares of
Speaker 2: Democrats and Republicans both fear violence around the election, both
Speaker 2: fear the impact of artificial intelligence, and it's interesting when
Speaker 2: you consider some of the things we have in common
Speaker 2: on both sides of the aisle. Eli, thank you for
Speaker 2: joining us on this poll day. Let's start with the
Speaker 2: horse race. Should Joe Biden be smiling looking at these numbers,
Speaker 2: knowing that Donald Trump has been stuck in a courtroom
Speaker 2: for the balance of this poll.
Speaker 5: I'm not sure that either candidate should be smiling at
Speaker 5: this point. These are very close contests across the swing
Speaker 5: state map. Now, the one thing that might make the
Speaker 5: president smile a bit is the fact that since the
Speaker 5: winter he has seen his support improve a bit as
Speaker 5: voters have come off the sidelines. But look, I mean,
Speaker 5: he's still underwater in most of these states. He's tied
Speaker 5: in Nevada, He's up by just the hare in Michigan.
Speaker 5: But if the election were held today, Joe Biden would
Speaker 5: be in a really tough spot.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he would, of course. To your point, though, Eli,
Speaker 3: where we are seeing some improvement in certain states, including
Speaker 3: some improvement in the Sun Belt for Joe Biden, how
Speaker 3: much can we draw a line to that improvement on
Speaker 3: Biden's part, or perhaps it is Trump that is falling
Speaker 3: back rather than Biden moving forward? How much can we
Speaker 3: attribute to the trial that Joe just mentioned the idea
Speaker 3: that he has been stuck in a courtroom. Does the
Speaker 3: poll to give any indication.
Speaker 5: I'm not sure the trial has really moved a lot
Speaker 5: of minds on this contest yet. I think the bigger
Speaker 5: deal in this race was Super Tuesday and State of
Speaker 5: the Union Week. I mean, in all of our national tracking,
Speaker 5: that's when the race started tightening a bit as independent
Speaker 5: voters in particular started to understand what the voice would
Speaker 5: actually be in this election. Donald Trump continues to do
Speaker 5: very very well with his Republican base and folks who
Speaker 5: voted for him back in twenty twenty. Joe Biden is
Speaker 5: continuing to struggle a bit with his voters and small
Speaker 5: margins here matter a lot. You know we mentioned Nevada.
Speaker 5: I mean that's a state where the Joe Biden path
Speaker 5: to victory is pretty clear. I mean it's the state
Speaker 5: where he is doing best right now with his own
Speaker 5: Democratic base. That's what the president really needs to rev up,
Speaker 5: as we had to November. And you know, there's a
Speaker 5: lot of issues at play here. I'm not sure how
Speaker 5: big of a gal Donald Trump's trial is currently until
Speaker 5: we get a verdict.
Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable eli to see half of swing state voters,
Speaker 2: equal shares of Democrats and Republicans say they fear violence
Speaker 2: breaking out around this election. It's hard to turn to
Speaker 2: an analysis piece or a newscast without hearing violence mention
Speaker 2: tied to the POL conventions coming up, never mind the
Speaker 2: aftermath of the elections themselves. Are you surprised to see
Speaker 2: this shared equally on both sides?
Speaker 5: Not necessarily. I mean, we've seen Republicans talk a lot
Speaker 5: about the kinds of protests we saw be it the
Speaker 5: Black Lives Matter protests in twenty twenty, be if these
Speaker 5: college campus protests this year. I'm really trying to rev
Speaker 5: up fears about democratic agitators. And of course, you know,
Speaker 5: Democrats have something that can point to you back in
Speaker 5: twenty twenty one when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. I
Speaker 5: think recent history in the minds of both sides of
Speaker 5: the aisle, for different reasons, help fuel this. That same
Speaker 5: question asked about election fairness too, By the way, that's
Speaker 5: something where Democrats are very strong in trust in the system.
Speaker 5: Republicans are not.
Speaker 6: Those numbers.
Speaker 5: We're going to watch those moves. Donald Trump's been talking
Speaker 5: a lot about whether or not he'll accept the twenty
Speaker 5: twenty four election results, just like he didn't accept them
Speaker 5: back in twenty twenty. Probably hasn't broken through as much yet,
Speaker 5: but as we get closer to election day, I mean
Speaker 5: that continues that these numbers could tick up.
Speaker 6: A little bit.
Speaker 3: Well, And as we as we look at these numbers
Speaker 3: six and ten swing state voters worried about misinformation, does
Speaker 3: that actually potentially suggest though, that voters are very aware
Speaker 3: of the content in which they're taking political content, Specifically
Speaker 3: in this election, and whether or not there could have
Speaker 3: been foreign interference or artificial intelligence things like deep fakes.
Speaker 3: That that's not just something that say we in the
Speaker 3: media are in the political realm are thinking about that,
Speaker 3: voters are actually quite wary of and privy to.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I think that that is almost a
Speaker 5: bigger concern among Republicans that AI is going to be
Speaker 5: a problem in the election in terms of the swing
Speaker 5: state voters. It's one thing to know it exists. It's
Speaker 5: another thing to see it in your daily lives. And
Speaker 5: I think we've seen folks have a hard time deciphering
Speaker 5: all of this, you know. At the same time, a
Speaker 5: whole media base online that pushes out fake videos all
Speaker 5: the time. The average American probably isn't sitting there in
Speaker 5: fact checking themselves, and so that actually ranks lower on
Speaker 5: the concerns about AI. By the way, I mean, the
Speaker 5: biggest concern for voters is privacy. But you know, I
Speaker 5: think as this campaign plays out, this is something that
Speaker 5: I think the Democrats are going to lead into talking
Speaker 5: about quite a bit, just given the foreign actors that
Speaker 5: have moved against Democrats in the past. I think I'll
Speaker 5: be incumbent on President Biden to raise this concern on
Speaker 5: the voters.
Speaker 3: All right, Eli Yoakley, always great to have you on
Speaker 3: poll day. He is US politics analyst at Morning Consult,
Speaker 3: which of course is Bloomberg's partner in this poll of
Speaker 3: the seven key swing states. But we want to dig
Speaker 3: more into the issue specifically around election security, given the
Speaker 3: concerns that swing state voters say, according to our polling,
Speaker 3: they have around this election cycle and turn out of
Speaker 3: Tina Barton. She is vice chair of the Committee on
Speaker 3: Safe and Secure Elections and she is joining us in
Speaker 3: our Washington, d C studio. Welcome to and bur Television
Speaker 3: and Radio. Tina, Thank you so much, thank you for
Speaker 3: coming in. Obviously, as we are in this election cycle,
Speaker 3: a lot of people are living with the ghost of
Speaker 3: twenty twenty and everything that has happened in the aftermath.
Speaker 3: Compared to what we saw four years ago. How safe
Speaker 3: and secure will elections be this year?
Speaker 7: Well, I think one of the things that we're specifically
Speaker 7: focused on with the Committee for Safe and Secure Elections
Speaker 7: is the safety and security of election officials. And one
Speaker 7: of the things that we have seen is even in
Speaker 7: just the last year that election officials more than ten
Speaker 7: percent have increased is saying that they have been threatened
Speaker 7: in the past. So we've gone from twenty eight percent
Speaker 7: up to thirty eight percent. So we're seeing this increase
Speaker 7: of threats towards election officials, and so part of our
Speaker 7: focus is keeping them safe, but also keeping the process safe.
Speaker 7: So with the committee, we're out doing tabletop exercises all
Speaker 7: across the country, some of those being in some of
Speaker 7: these swing states where we're holding the tabletops and bringing
Speaker 7: all of these issues to the table and bringing election
Speaker 7: officials and law enforcement and saying how would we work
Speaker 7: through this if this were to happen in your community,
Speaker 7: in your county or state.
Speaker 2: I want to hear more about that. What kind of
Speaker 2: scenarios are you modeling into the include the monitoring of
Speaker 2: drop boxes. For instance, we saw a lot of concern
Speaker 2: in the midterms the last election of masked people, in
Speaker 2: some cases sitting in trucks, in some cases visibly armed
Speaker 2: filming people as they drop balance.
Speaker 7: So we certainly have a few different scenarios. One of
Speaker 7: those can be the dropbox scenario. We work usually with
Speaker 7: the Secretary of the Chief election official of the state
Speaker 7: or the county to see what are you concerned about
Speaker 7: happening in your state. So typically some of the things
Speaker 7: that we're working on now would be things like fentanyl
Speaker 7: getting an unknown substance in the mail. We've seen that
Speaker 7: happen and you know, approximately a half a dozen states
Speaker 7: and over the last nine months. So we're looking at that.
Speaker 7: What would that look like for your continuation of operation,
Speaker 7: What would that look like for chain of command and
Speaker 7: chain of custody if that were to happen. We're also
Speaker 7: looking at things like swatting. What happens if the chief
Speaker 7: election official is swatted and what should they expect to happen.
Speaker 7: And we're seeing that happen to election officials across the country,
Speaker 7: also some of those being in swing states, and we're
Speaker 7: seeing it on both sides of both parties, that is
Speaker 7: happening to election officials. We're also looking at disturbances. What
Speaker 7: if something happens in an actual precinct, what if it
Speaker 7: happens outside maybe it is armed individuals who are bringing
Speaker 7: intimidation to the polling place. Working through those scenarios, hearing
Speaker 7: exactly what would we do, what type of plan would
Speaker 7: we put into place, and making sure we are prepared
Speaker 7: for it if it should happen.
Speaker 3: So does do larger amounts of resources now have to
Speaker 3: go into making sure polling places are secure as they're
Speaker 3: greater coordination with either local or state authorities, just given
Speaker 3: the increase in threats that you have spoken to.
Speaker 7: Yeah, Recently, the Brandan Center did a survey with election
Speaker 7: officials and we saw that over ninety percent of them
Speaker 7: have had to increase their budget and make improvements that
Speaker 7: are security related, whether that's hardening their facilities or it's
Speaker 7: securing the process itself. So they're putting lots of effort,
Speaker 7: lots of money into that. But we're also seeing eighty
Speaker 7: three percent of them saying we have to have some
Speaker 7: budget increases over the next five years or our elections
Speaker 7: are going to be in trouble. We need better funding.
Speaker 2: Is this geographically neutral? Are there states that are more
Speaker 2: problematic than others when you look at this on a
Speaker 2: national level, or is this something everyone's dealing.
Speaker 7: With, certainly in those swing states there's a lot of passion.
Speaker 7: Is that there are a lot you know, I mean
Speaker 7: Michigan obviously has seen it here. I'm from Michigan. We've had,
Speaker 7: you know, our chief election official, Secretary Benson, who has
Speaker 7: had individuals at her home. Our governor. I was threatened
Speaker 7: after the twenty twenty election cycle. We've seen it in Georgia, Arizona,
Speaker 7: places like that where we are seeing that, but we're
Speaker 7: seeing this across the country. This is a country wide problem.
Speaker 7: When you're seeing that nearly forty percent of election officials,
Speaker 7: and we have over ten thousand in our country, forty
Speaker 7: percent is a really high number to say that they've
Speaker 7: been threatened to harass.
Speaker 2: You were threatened because of your work with this organization.
Speaker 7: Work as a former election official.
Speaker 2: I see in what form were you threatened?
Speaker 7: So I actually had a voice that came in after
Speaker 7: the November twenty twenty election where the individual said that
Speaker 7: when I least expected it, that he would kill me.
Speaker 7: And so that individual was actually arrested by the DOJA identified. Yes,
Speaker 7: he pled guilty in February of this year and will
Speaker 7: be sentenced in July of this year for threating to
Speaker 7: stay me in my family. I was the chief election
Speaker 7: official in Rochester Hills, Michigan.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry you had to go through this.
Speaker 1: So this is this is personal.
Speaker 3: It's personal, absolutely, and I'm sure that there are countless
Speaker 3: stories like yours that are.
Speaker 7: Out there again with nearly forty percent out of over
Speaker 7: ten thousand election officials saying they've been threatened, harassed, or abused.
Speaker 7: I am one of that thirty eight percent, but I'm
Speaker 7: certainly one that is being incredibly vocal to bring attention
Speaker 7: to the fact that this is happening in our country.
Speaker 7: Your statistics and your report that you put out that
Speaker 7: over fifty percent are concerned about violence for the election.
Speaker 7: We see that paralleled in the elections community, where we're
Speaker 7: fifty three percent of election officials are concerned about their
Speaker 7: safety and the safety of their colleagues.
Speaker 3: And obviously a lot of this is threats to physical safety,
Speaker 3: but I would imagine technology, things like phone calls or
Speaker 3: deep fakes, or the ability to access other people only
Speaker 3: makes that threat even more pronounced.
Speaker 7: Right, And that's one of the scenarios that we work through.
Speaker 7: Is you know, in twenty twenty we had the pandemic,
Speaker 7: and we were responding to all of those things in
Speaker 7: the political emotion that was rising then, and in twenty
Speaker 7: twenty four, each election cycle seems to bring something new.
Speaker 7: We have AI and that's exactly what we're seeing, and
Speaker 7: that's one of the scenarios that we work through. If
Speaker 7: there were to be some sort of a call go out,
Speaker 7: say from the election administrator, mirroring their voice and sending
Speaker 7: that out to others, what would that look like for them?
Speaker 2: Tina, thank you for being so flexible with your timing today.
Speaker 2: I'm well we can have this conversation on Bloomberg. It's
Speaker 2: a very important one. Tina Barton is Vice chair of
Speaker 2: the Committee on Safe and Secure Elections with us here
Speaker 2: on Balance of Power on this day that we do
Speaker 2: learn both Democrats and Republicans share the same fears leading
Speaker 2: into this election cycle. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines
Speaker 2: will assemble our panel next on the fastest show in politics,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: You mentioned the invite Kayley Benjamin Ettnyaho before a joint
Speaker 2: session of Congress, knowing that he is one of the
Speaker 2: most controversial figures in the world. Right now and certainly
Speaker 2: has been making life difficult for Joe Biden. This is
Speaker 2: how Mike Johnson is going to answer the ICC arrest
Speaker 2: warrant by inviting him here to the US. Remember Aaron
Speaker 2: David Miller was talking to us last night about what
Speaker 2: would happen if they wanted to extradite Benjamin Etya, who
Speaker 2: while he was outside of Israel.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it definitely presents a whole host of questions, not
Speaker 3: least of which also is how does the Democratic Senate
Speaker 3: leader Chuck Schumer deal with this, because theoretically he would
Speaker 3: need to be on board. But remember it was Chuck
Speaker 3: Schumer who earlier this year gave a speech on the
Speaker 3: Senate floor essentially calling for new elections in Israel and
Speaker 3: the ouster of the very prime minister that we're talking
Speaker 3: about here that he could then invite to speak to
Speaker 3: his chamber in this joint session. It's very politically and
Speaker 3: geopolitically complicated.
Speaker 2: It's hard to tell what's real here with so much
Speaker 2: messaging happening in the House. But let's see what the
Speaker 2: panel thinks. Jennie Shanzano is with US Bloomberg Politics contributor,
Speaker 2: of course, Democratic analyst and now senior Democracy fellow with
Speaker 2: the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress,
Speaker 2: joined by Lester Munson, Republican strategist, principal at BGR Group. Jenny,
Speaker 2: What's Joe Biden going to do if Benjamin Netanya, who
Speaker 2: is brought to Washington to address a joint session of Congress,
Speaker 2: he might not get a meeting at the White House
Speaker 2: on that trip, right?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know.
Speaker 8: I mean Joe Biden did call what the ICC did
Speaker 8: and the steps they have taken outrageous, so he has
Speaker 8: been very clear about his views. And of course we
Speaker 8: are not a signature signatory rather to the ICC, so
Speaker 8: net and Yahoo would be free to travel here, we'd
Speaker 8: be under no obligation to arrest net and Yahoo. That said,
Speaker 8: it does put Joe Biden, it does put Chuck Schumer
Speaker 8: in the Democrats in a bit of a political quandary
Speaker 8: because you do have many members supporting the president with
Speaker 8: his outrage, but you also have some like Pokan in
Speaker 8: Wisconsin who have said of net and Yahoo visits, I
Speaker 8: am going to help the ICC issue this arrest warrant,
Speaker 8: which is I believe outrageous itself that he would do that,
Speaker 8: But it is what we're hearing. So it does divide
Speaker 8: the Democrats, and it is politically for that reason a
Speaker 8: moment that Chuck Schumer says he is working his way through.
Speaker 6: I think in the end he.
Speaker 8: Will go along with the Speaker on this, but it is,
Speaker 8: you know, a political challenge for Democrats at this point.
Speaker 3: Well and for one Democrat in particular, lesser being President Biden.
Speaker 3: We have been talking a lot about our new poll
Speaker 3: out today, Bloomberg's Swing State Pole with More Consoled, and
Speaker 3: question is asked in that poll on Israel. Back in November,
Speaker 3: we asked about whether Joe Biden was doing the right
Speaker 3: amount to help help Israel. More people said that in
Speaker 3: November than they do now. Increasing numbers say he's either
Speaker 3: doing too much or too little, which speaks to the
Speaker 3: idea that potentially for this Democratic administration, there is no
Speaker 3: real winning on this issue.
Speaker 9: Lester, Well, it's a difficult foreign policy issue. There's no
Speaker 9: doubt Israel and the Palestinians presents an issue that every
Speaker 9: single American president has struggled with. But it's also an
Speaker 9: opportunity for President Biden to show leadership, I think, embrace,
Speaker 9: embracing the Prime Minister if he comes having the meeting
Speaker 9: in the White House. You can have tough words when
Speaker 9: the door closes, but showing staunch support for a US
Speaker 9: ally in a difficult situation is something the American people appreciate.
Speaker 9: I think, even if they may have some concerns about
Speaker 9: the policy, they want to see an American president stand
Speaker 9: up and take tough positions because it's in the best
Speaker 9: interest in the United States. And I think in this case,
Speaker 9: if you're choosing between Israel and Hamas, there's only one uh,
Speaker 9: there's only one choice the president can actually make, and
Speaker 9: so this is an opportunity for him if he wants
Speaker 9: to seize it.
Speaker 2: We're wondering, as well as we spend time with our
Speaker 2: panel today, Janie and Lester, if there's going to be
Speaker 2: an answer in Congress to the controversy surrounding Supreme Court
Speaker 2: Justice Samuel Alito flying an upside down American flag realizing
Speaker 2: he said his wife put it there, but out in
Speaker 2: front of his house in Alexandria, Virginia, following the election
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, representing the Stop the Steel movement. Even
Speaker 2: some Republicans are criticizing Alito for this genie, and there's
Speaker 2: been talk potentially of a legislative answer, although Dick Durbin
Speaker 2: in the Senate, of course Senate Judiciary Committee says Samuel
Speaker 2: Alito should simply recuse himself.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, the way to it would be to
Speaker 8: do what justices always do, which is they make a
Speaker 8: personal recusal decision. So I think that's very important. I
Speaker 8: know there are steps in the Senate and in the
Speaker 8: House and discussions about censure, and we may see something
Speaker 8: like that. But I will tell you just from a
Speaker 8: political standpoint, I am not clear on why the Biden
Speaker 8: administration and President Biden, given where he is in the
Speaker 8: Bloomberg Council poll and in this election overall, doesn't think
Speaker 8: that now is the time to take bold action as
Speaker 8: it pertains to the Supreme Court. We have Donald Trump
Speaker 8: talking about restricting contraception, we have the overturning of Roe v. Wade,
Speaker 8: all kinds of concerns about that. Why not go out
Speaker 8: there and say, you know what, I wasn't sure about
Speaker 8: packing the court, but now I'm going to because if
Speaker 8: Donald Trump wins, he will have two more appointments to
Speaker 8: the Court when Thomas and Alito retire, and that will
Speaker 8: be a five to four majority, where Donald Trump will
Speaker 8: have chosen five Supreme Court justices and those just this
Speaker 8: is we'll sit on that court rather long after he
Speaker 8: is gone and when your children are growing up and
Speaker 8: becoming adults. So now is the time for Joe Biden
Speaker 8: to take action and show that strength that Lester was
Speaker 8: just talking about. Not be cautious talk about some kind
Speaker 8: of Supreme Court reform, whether it's mandatory retirements or whether
Speaker 8: it is packing the court. You may not get it
Speaker 8: done like FDR, but at least you tried, and this
Speaker 8: is an issue that people are concerned about.
Speaker 3: Lester, just talk of packing the court though we'resk backfiring.
Speaker 3: Does that potentially seem extreme to some undecided voters.
Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, Genie and I have been in total
Speaker 9: agreement until now. I think it would be a mistake
Speaker 9: for the president to do that. The Supreme Courts and
Speaker 9: the judiciary is a separate, independent branch of government. Just
Speaker 9: because you get a policy outcome that you don't approve of,
Speaker 9: doesn't mean one branch of government should go to war
Speaker 9: with the other. O. I think the specter of packing
Speaker 9: the Court is as is worse than any single decision
Speaker 9: the Supreme Court could come out with the idea that
Speaker 9: you're going to politically manipulate the structure of the Supreme
Speaker 9: Court to guarantee certain outcomes goes against the entire purpose
Speaker 9: of having an independent judiciary. So I think that I
Speaker 9: do think that would be a mistake. I think he
Speaker 9: can he can talk about his position on the issues,
Speaker 9: and he can talk about if if the Democrats want
Speaker 9: to pursue this, you know, family planning issues or the
Speaker 9: abortion issue, entirely fair game. Go make the case they're
Speaker 9: going to have. They're going to have pretty good reaction,
Speaker 9: I think among voters. But I think changing the nature
Speaker 9: of the Supreme Court is going too far.
Speaker 2: I think this is fascinating where this conversation has led
Speaker 2: us here. So what do you think, Genie. Could Joe
Speaker 2: Biden motivate enough progressives with that move to make up
Speaker 2: for the many conservatives he would anger.
Speaker 8: You know, I'm not convinced he would do any better
Speaker 8: than FDR and packing the court. I would assume it's
Speaker 8: not going to work the way it didn't for ft A.
Speaker 8: But I'm talking about politically to show strength. The Constitution
Speaker 8: does not set the number of justices on the Supreme Court.
Speaker 8: It is fluctuated throughout American history. It is up to
Speaker 8: Congress to set that number. They did so after the
Speaker 8: Civil War, and they can do so again. The president's
Speaker 8: job would be to convince a member of Congress to
Speaker 8: introduce such legislation and let them go at it. But
Speaker 8: my view is that politically only, this is the kind
Speaker 8: of thing that Joe Biden needs to do. Why are
Speaker 8: we still waiting on executive orders at the border? Why
Speaker 8: are we waiting for action on the Supreme Court? You
Speaker 8: are the president. People are frustrated, and you're in poll numbers.
Speaker 8: Just look at the Bloomberg Morning Council poll. Don't look
Speaker 8: so good. You've got to show strength. So from a
Speaker 8: political standpoint, I think he should, and I think he
Speaker 8: should push for it and let the chips fall where
Speaker 8: they may.
Speaker 3: All right, Genie Shanzano and Lester Munson our political panel today.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Lester joining us from bgr at
Speaker 3: the International Group and Genie and Ze No of course
Speaker 3: is now newly a Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center
Speaker 3: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Great conversation, guys,
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. It's also worth noting we're having
Speaker 3: this conversation Joe about the Supreme Court on the same
Speaker 3: day that the Senate today confirmed the two hundred federal judge.
Speaker 1: That's right.
Speaker 3: Under the Biden administration. It's about a month earlier than
Speaker 3: when we hit that month mark under Donald Trump. But
Speaker 3: as we were just discussing, while Biden has gotten to
Speaker 3: confirm two hundred judges during his tenure, not anyone confirmed
Speaker 3: to the Supreme Court. Donald Trump got three of those.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. Well, I mean you've got Kazanji Brown Jackson.
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll get another three.
Speaker 1: We'll see about that.
Speaker 3: I don't know about that.
Speaker 1: It's still time. We won't predict anything. You're listening to
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays
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Speaker 2: Welcome to the fastest show in politics, Wednesday edition. It's
Speaker 2: Balance of Power Life from Washington with an eye on
Speaker 2: what's happening in Israel and Gaza. We've been talking about
Speaker 2: the temporary peer that the US military just spent millions
Speaker 2: of dollars in many weeks to build to try to
Speaker 2: deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza, working our way around in
Speaker 2: some cases, our ally in Israel, with gates closed in
Speaker 2: many cases, to get food to where it needs to
Speaker 2: go in Gaza. Kaylee. The word from the UN World
Speaker 2: Food Program today is not good. This three hundred and
Speaker 2: twenty million dollar project is apparently going to fail unless
Speaker 2: Israel does a better job ensuring its security, according.
Speaker 1: To the UN.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the UN coming out yesterday saying that no aid
Speaker 3: trucks had entered within the last two days via the
Speaker 3: floating peer set up for sea deliveries. They also said
Speaker 3: in that same statement that its suspended food distribution in
Speaker 3: Rafa due to lack of supplies and insecurity. So it
Speaker 3: speaks to just how dire the situation has becomes. You
Speaker 3: have so many people on the brink of famine in
Speaker 3: all actuality, something that of course the Peer was aimed
Speaker 3: at trying to address, but perhaps not doing so as
Speaker 3: successfully as initially hoped. We did hear from Major General
Speaker 3: Pat Rider, a spokesperson for the Defense Department, about this,
Speaker 3: and this is what he had to say.
Speaker 10: It is a complex operation and so you know, we've
Speaker 10: been very clear from the beginning that we're going to
Speaker 10: take a crawl, walk, run approach to make sure that
Speaker 10: we are implementing this system in a way where we're
Speaker 10: working out the processes, the procedures, and including taking into
Speaker 10: account the security conditions. So I think you're going to
Speaker 10: see as we work together the amount of aid increase
Speaker 10: and the ability to get it distributed increase.
Speaker 3: General Pat Rider yesterday joining us now for more here
Speaker 3: on balance of power is Carmeil Arbitt joining us from
Speaker 3: the Atlantic Council where she a senior fellow for the
Speaker 3: Middle East programs in the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Carmeil,
Speaker 3: always great to have you back on the show when
Speaker 3: we think about the aid situation specifically and the difficulty
Speaker 3: of getting aid to those who needed He was speaking
Speaker 3: there of the security conditions that have to be taken
Speaker 3: into consideration here given the status on the ground right now,
Speaker 3: how realistic is it that those conditions can improve to
Speaker 3: the extent they need to in order to get food
Speaker 3: ed in at scale.
Speaker 11: Yeah, thank you so much for having me back on
Speaker 11: the challenges of distributing aid to Gaza and throughout the
Speaker 11: Strip have not gotten easier. To the contrary it's only
Speaker 11: gotten more complex as the destruction of the strip has worsened.
Speaker 11: There are really three challenges here that all touch on
Speaker 11: the security piece, which is logistical, the situation of desperation,
Speaker 11: which is really also impeding on that distribution, and then
Speaker 11: ultimately political. When the US announced that they were going
Speaker 11: to set up this peer, it was very clear to
Speaker 11: everyone involved that this was going to be a very
Speaker 11: expensive and politically meaningful gesture, but that realistically it was
Speaker 11: going to solve some of the key logistical issues, which
Speaker 11: is finding safe, secure and functioning roads to transfer that
Speaker 11: aid across the Gaza Strip and to bring it to
Speaker 11: the communities that need it most. So that's the first
Speaker 11: challenge that they're dealing with. The second is one of desperation.
Speaker 11: When gozens see these trucks, they often are fearful that
Speaker 11: it is the only time they're going to have access
Speaker 11: to that sort of aid, and so they are charging
Speaker 11: those trucks and grabbing things and engaging in what some
Speaker 11: are calling self distribution because again they are desperate.
Speaker 6: And then the third piece is really political will.
Speaker 11: Here we're seeing challenges on the Israeli side as well,
Speaker 11: where Israeli extremists are looking to stop the flow of
Speaker 11: aid into Israel, but there is an incentive on the
Speaker 11: part of the Israeli government to move that aid forward
Speaker 11: as it works to coordinate support for its Rafak incursion
Speaker 11: with the United States. So all that is to say,
Speaker 11: the challenges are formidable and will continue to be, and
Speaker 11: we might not see that port operational until this war
Speaker 11: is nearly met.
Speaker 2: Well, that's saying something we just heard from Jake Sullivan
Speaker 2: Carmeil at the White House National Security Advisor to the President,
Speaker 2: who says aid from the Peer has reached some Palestinian civilians,
Speaker 2: but the fact is it takes at least a day
Speaker 2: to process the aid of the peer. There's very limited
Speaker 2: distribution in some areas of Gaza, certainly in Rafa. Was
Speaker 2: this a flawed concept to begin with?
Speaker 11: Look, this is an impossible situation, given, as I said,
Speaker 11: the security situation in Gaza, the inability to ensure that
Speaker 11: anyone who is delivering that aid is going to be safe,
Speaker 11: destruction on roads, all of these people, all of these
Speaker 11: other pieces. In many ways, this was mission impossible but
Speaker 11: also mission necessary. Just because it's difficult to get aid
Speaker 11: to the people in Gaza, does that mean that anyone
Speaker 11: can step away from this imperative. People in Gaza are
Speaker 11: on the brink of a famine and their situation isn't
Speaker 11: getting any better.
Speaker 6: So it behooves the international community to.
Speaker 11: Look for any possible avenue to increase that aid and distribution.
Speaker 11: But these types of complications and hiccops are going to
Speaker 11: be inevitable given that there's also no real centralized civil
Speaker 11: distribution network within Gaza, and this blows open the continual
Speaker 11: problem and that Israel has no strategy for the day
Speaker 11: after and what comes next. And so we're seeing that
Speaker 11: play out in the immediate term, and we're going to
Speaker 11: continue to say see it play out in the future.
Speaker 3: Well, let's keep thinking about what comes next, because in
Speaker 3: light of what we have seen so far in the
Speaker 3: last twenty four hours, Ireland, Norway and Spain announcing that
Speaker 3: they would recognize a Palestinian state and the subsequent is
Speaker 3: really recalling its ambassadors to those countries not reacting well
Speaker 3: to this. I wonder, Carmel if a number of sovereign
Speaker 3: countries saying that they would recognize a Palestinian state actually
Speaker 3: makes it less likely that that Palestinian state can be
Speaker 3: realized in the near term because it only cast Is
Speaker 3: those currently in power to Israel to kind of retrench
Speaker 3: and circle the wagons and invoice opposition to the idea
Speaker 3: of a two state solution.
Speaker 11: That's exactly right, the declaration of Palestinian statehood by countries, which,
Speaker 11: mind you, more than one hundred countries I think about
Speaker 11: one hundred and forty have already done that. But doing
Speaker 11: that in this moment and generally is deeply alienating for
Speaker 11: the Israelis who feel that the Palestinians can't just be
Speaker 11: given this statehood recognition.
Speaker 6: Statehood must come.
Speaker 11: Through a negotiated, durable, two state solution, an agreement that
Speaker 11: both parties have come to. And the problem is that
Speaker 11: statehood is really just words. There aren't very serious practical
Speaker 11: implications for this, and so it doesn't move the parties
Speaker 11: closer together, it just divides them further.
Speaker 2: Where's the administration now on operations in RAFA? Because our
Speaker 2: reporting says that the administration is softening a stand on this.
Speaker 2: I believe it was a red line for President Biden
Speaker 2: said that on the record a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 2: Is that red line moving?
Speaker 6: So I think the.
Speaker 11: Question is whether the red line is moving or the
Speaker 11: Israelis are moving, and the answer is somewhere in between
Speaker 11: the two. The Israelis have taken very seriously what the
Speaker 11: United States has been saying, and there's been sort of
Speaker 11: a difference between what they're saying publicly and what they're
Speaker 11: saying behind closed doors. So publicly, Biden had put forward
Speaker 11: what was increasingly sounding like a generic red line any
Speaker 11: type of incursion into Raffa was unacceptable, But privately that's
Speaker 11: not really what these conversations have looked like. What they've
Speaker 11: really been saying is that any incursion into Raffa has
Speaker 11: to look a certain way.
Speaker 6: There has to be serious and.
Speaker 11: Meaningful efforts to evacuate civilians, there has to be a cathway.
Speaker 11: The type of operation that's carried out matters a lot.
Speaker 11: And what we're seeing and hearing is that what the
Speaker 11: Israelis are intending to do and have already begun doing,
Speaker 11: is relatively narrow in that what they're really focusing on
Speaker 11: is tunnels and transit routes in Rafa rather than kind
Speaker 11: of a larger scale piece, and that will allow them
Speaker 11: to contain civilian casualties, and in many ways already had.
Speaker 11: So we're finding a convergence in terms of what the
Speaker 11: Israeli and American position had been around Rafa Carmeil.
Speaker 3: Of course, while the administration the US administration's position has
Speaker 3: long been that they wouldn't like to see a major
Speaker 3: ground operation in Rafa that could cause massive civilian casualties,
Speaker 3: they also have it been loudly, repeatedly calling for a
Speaker 3: temporary ceasefire deal in sending diplomats to the Middle East
Speaker 3: to try and further that effort. It feels like, though
Speaker 3: now for all of the hope that maybe existed weeks ago,
Speaker 3: it's long gone. Is there any real prospect of a
Speaker 3: temporary ceasefire deal now?
Speaker 11: I think the parties are going to continue to negotiate.
Speaker 11: The Israelis had hoped that the thread of a RAFAF
Speaker 11: operation and what it could look like would strengthen their
Speaker 11: hands at the negotiating table, and felt that the US
Speaker 11: had taken that away from them, essentially by hamstringing the
Speaker 11: extent of what Rafa could be. Because of that, the
Speaker 11: Egyptians had really withdrawn their role from this. Egypt had been,
Speaker 11: of course, also trying to prevent a RAFAS operation. But
Speaker 11: what you see is the cutter is continuing to move ahead.
Speaker 11: We're also hearing conversations shift where we're not just looking
Speaker 11: out a temporary ceasefire as this war starts to again kind.
Speaker 6: Of wind down. Remember that there are only.
Speaker 11: Four brigades of Hamas that are still excuse me, battalions
Speaker 11: that are still operating in Rafas, and that's what Israel
Speaker 11: has been really interested in. But starting to think now
Speaker 11: more and more about what a long term out could
Speaker 11: look like. And so you have Cutter still at the
Speaker 11: talk of temporary ceasefire talks, but also partnering up with
Speaker 11: the Saudis Is the US and the Saudis and negotiate
Speaker 11: and a potential long term negotiation under for normalization, and
Speaker 11: that could also include an end to the conflict.
Speaker 2: Carmel, your insights are always so helpfully. Appreciate your time today, Carmel,
Speaker 2: arbit throws of uncertainty over the effectiveness of this peer.
Speaker 2: We'll see what happens with US operations as we move
Speaker 2: our way forward, and analysis from Carmel at the Atlantic
Speaker 2: Council always helps us out from ver, thanks for listening
Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe
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