1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then roud Otto with the 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 2: Richie Suna calls it general election for the fourth of July. 7 00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 2: Welcome to the fastest show in politics with breaking news 8 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 2: on both sides of the Atlantic today in the world 9 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 2: of politics. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington 10 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,240 Speaker 2: and Klee it seems the Prime Minister thought earlier was better. 11 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, we thought that the UK might have an election 12 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 3: in the fall. 13 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 4: Not so. 14 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 3: It will happen in July, just about six weeks from now, 15 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 3: an announcement that caught many by surprise today on both 16 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 3: sides of the pond. And certainly that is the case 17 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 3: for our wonderful Bloomberg team, who is standing by, including 18 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 3: Lizzie Burden who is outside ten Downing Street right. Wow, 19 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 3: as we speak, after just in the last hour we 20 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 3: heard from Rishi Sunac himself calling for this election on 21 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:10,839 Speaker 3: the fourth of July. Lizzie, why now, Well. 22 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 4: Kaylie, you know, we Brits like to talk about the weather, 23 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 4: but you'll have to excuse me. I'm going to have 24 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 4: to do it. Richie Sunac came out in one of 25 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 4: his expensive suits and it got soaked. I'm sure he 26 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 4: could afford another. Why has he chosen July. Well, it's 27 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 4: no coincidence that UK inflation was announced as having falled 28 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 4: to two point three percent in April today this morning, 29 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 4: and Rishi Sunac says that's back to normal, near enough 30 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 4: for him to the Bank of England's two percent target. 31 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 4: So he wants to present to the nation that the 32 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 4: economy has turned a corner under his watch. But it's 33 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 4: not just monetary reasons. It's also fiscal Recent public finance 34 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 4: data and warnings from the IMF suggests that any hope 35 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 4: of tax cuts in an autumn budget wouldn't really be 36 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 4: possible because they might not have the wriggle room. And 37 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 4: just finally, political reasons. They want to make immigrants front 38 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,279 Speaker 4: and center of this campaign. They might have been able 39 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 4: to send a flight to Rwanda with asylum seekers on 40 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,679 Speaker 4: board by that date. So this election on July the 41 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 4: fourth could be a very very different one from the 42 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 4: one in twenty nineteen, the last one here in the UK. 43 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 4: This won't be about Brexit, It'll be about health, immigration 44 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 4: and the economy. 45 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 2: Pretty incredible when you consider the timeline here, Lizzie. We're 46 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 2: in the process of covering the longest presidential election the 47 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 2: general election in modern American history. How do you compress 48 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 2: a campaign into five to six weeks and deliver a message? 49 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 2: What will this look like for him? 50 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 4: Well, the whole time, Rishi Sunak's been in number ten 51 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 4: Downing Street, He's been campaigning on the economy. His top 52 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 4: priority was to harm inflation. By the end of last year, 53 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 4: it happened and now inflation is at two point three percent. 54 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 4: But really can he take credit for that when it's 55 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 4: the Bank of England's job to reduce inflation? Really as 56 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 4: we know, But look, Rishie Sunac has also been campaigning 57 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 4: on immigration and the NHS. But at the moment things 58 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 4: aren't looking so good on those two factors. In the 59 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 4: healthcare for example, look at NHS waiting lists part of 60 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 4: the reason for the economic inactivity problem here in the UK, 61 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 4: which factors back into inflation. But the poll gap between 62 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 4: the ruling Conservatives and the Labor Party just has not 63 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 4: been shrinking, so he's not naturally a risk taker. But 64 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 4: he's decided to roll the dice and call an election 65 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 4: earlier than everybody in Westminster really had expected. Most had 66 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 4: thought it would be autumn. 67 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 3: Well, Lizzie, as you mentioned the Labor Party and how 68 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 3: in fact they are leading substantially in the polls. It's 69 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 3: been fourteen years since they were in power, the Conservatives 70 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 3: have been in power since twenty ten. Just how great 71 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 3: of a change could this bring to the UK, assuming 72 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 3: that the polls are right and Keir Starmer replaces Rishi Sunac. 73 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 4: Well, Keir Starmer made his own speech following Rishi Sunacs 74 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 4: and he's keen to emphasize not just the change that 75 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 4: he could deliver from Rishi Sunac, but also from his 76 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 4: predecessor as the Labor leader, Jeremy Corbyn. He presents that 77 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 4: he's made a huge turnaround within the party on anti Semitism, 78 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 4: but he also presents that he could provide stability unlike that. 79 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 4: We've the instability that we've seen in the Conservative Party. 80 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 4: We've had Boris Johnson, Liz Trust and now Rishi Sunac 81 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 4: since the twenty nineteen election. And I have to say 82 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 4: I've been to both the party conferences from Labor and 83 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 4: the Conservatives over recent years, and over that time business 84 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 4: has seen the value in the Labor Party and they 85 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:58,479 Speaker 4: have been flocking to pitch what they want to who 86 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 4: the polls suggest are going to be government. 87 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden outside Number ten downing. Lizzie, thank you 88 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 2: so much for joining us with breaking news today. This 89 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 2: just emerged in the last couple of hours, Kayley, and 90 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,359 Speaker 2: pretty remarkable. They're going to be often running already on 91 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 2: a five to six week sprint. That will of course 92 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 2: be covering right here on Balance of Power, with our 93 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,919 Speaker 2: other top story today being the new Bloomberg News Morning 94 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 2: consult Swing State Pole numbers hit this morning, bringing potentially 95 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 2: good and bad news to Joe Biden. The fact of 96 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 2: the matter is Joe Biden Cayley still trails Donald Trump 97 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 2: by four percentage points when you look at our numbers 98 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 2: from across the seven states that we've identified. But when 99 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 2: it comes to the blue Wall, there might be some 100 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 2: glimmers of hope. And we don't want to mischaracterize this. 101 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 2: If the election we're held today, according to our poll, 102 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 2: Donald Trump would win. 103 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, Joe Biden will very likely need the 104 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 3: blue wall if he would like to win. Those are 105 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 3: the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In all of those, 106 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:57,720 Speaker 3: Biden and Trump are separated by no more than two 107 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 3: percentage points. So it is incredibly close. And that's just 108 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 3: another thing that speaks to how turnout ultimately is going 109 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 3: to be so consequential in this left. 110 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: We're going to get to the horse race now with 111 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,279 Speaker 2: Eli Yoakley with our partners at Morning Console. But also 112 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 2: some fascinating revelations here to learn that equal shares of 113 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 2: Democrats and Republicans both fear violence around the election, both 114 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 2: fear the impact of artificial intelligence, and it's interesting when 115 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 2: you consider some of the things we have in common 116 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 2: on both sides of the aisle. Eli, thank you for 117 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 2: joining us on this poll day. Let's start with the 118 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 2: horse race. Should Joe Biden be smiling looking at these numbers, 119 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 2: knowing that Donald Trump has been stuck in a courtroom 120 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 2: for the balance of this poll. 121 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 5: I'm not sure that either candidate should be smiling at 122 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 5: this point. These are very close contests across the swing 123 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 5: state map. Now, the one thing that might make the 124 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 5: president smile a bit is the fact that since the 125 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 5: winter he has seen his support improve a bit as 126 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 5: voters have come off the sidelines. But look, I mean, 127 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 5: he's still underwater in most of these states. He's tied 128 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 5: in Nevada, He's up by just the hare in Michigan. 129 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 5: But if the election were held today, Joe Biden would 130 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 5: be in a really tough spot. 131 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, he would, of course. To your point, though, Eli, 132 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 3: where we are seeing some improvement in certain states, including 133 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 3: some improvement in the Sun Belt for Joe Biden, how 134 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 3: much can we draw a line to that improvement on 135 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 3: Biden's part, or perhaps it is Trump that is falling 136 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 3: back rather than Biden moving forward? How much can we 137 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 3: attribute to the trial that Joe just mentioned the idea 138 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 3: that he has been stuck in a courtroom. Does the 139 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 3: poll to give any indication. 140 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 5: I'm not sure the trial has really moved a lot 141 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 5: of minds on this contest yet. I think the bigger 142 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 5: deal in this race was Super Tuesday and State of 143 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 5: the Union Week. I mean, in all of our national tracking, 144 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 5: that's when the race started tightening a bit as independent 145 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 5: voters in particular started to understand what the voice would 146 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 5: actually be in this election. Donald Trump continues to do 147 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 5: very very well with his Republican base and folks who 148 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 5: voted for him back in twenty twenty. Joe Biden is 149 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 5: continuing to struggle a bit with his voters and small 150 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 5: margins here matter a lot. You know we mentioned Nevada. 151 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 5: I mean that's a state where the Joe Biden path 152 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 5: to victory is pretty clear. I mean it's the state 153 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 5: where he is doing best right now with his own 154 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 5: Democratic base. That's what the president really needs to rev up, 155 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 5: as we had to November. And you know, there's a 156 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 5: lot of issues at play here. I'm not sure how 157 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 5: big of a gal Donald Trump's trial is currently until 158 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 5: we get a verdict. 159 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable eli to see half of swing state voters, 160 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 2: equal shares of Democrats and Republicans say they fear violence 161 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 2: breaking out around this election. It's hard to turn to 162 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 2: an analysis piece or a newscast without hearing violence mention 163 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 2: tied to the POL conventions coming up, never mind the 164 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 2: aftermath of the elections themselves. Are you surprised to see 165 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 2: this shared equally on both sides? 166 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 5: Not necessarily. I mean, we've seen Republicans talk a lot 167 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 5: about the kinds of protests we saw be it the 168 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 5: Black Lives Matter protests in twenty twenty, be if these 169 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 5: college campus protests this year. I'm really trying to rev 170 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 5: up fears about democratic agitators. And of course, you know, 171 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 5: Democrats have something that can point to you back in 172 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 5: twenty twenty one when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. I 173 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 5: think recent history in the minds of both sides of 174 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 5: the aisle, for different reasons, help fuel this. That same 175 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 5: question asked about election fairness too, By the way, that's 176 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 5: something where Democrats are very strong in trust in the system. 177 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 5: Republicans are not. 178 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 6: Those numbers. 179 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 5: We're going to watch those moves. Donald Trump's been talking 180 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 5: a lot about whether or not he'll accept the twenty 181 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 5: twenty four election results, just like he didn't accept them 182 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 5: back in twenty twenty. Probably hasn't broken through as much yet, 183 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 5: but as we get closer to election day, I mean 184 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 5: that continues that these numbers could tick up. 185 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:07,959 Speaker 6: A little bit. 186 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 3: Well, And as we as we look at these numbers 187 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 3: six and ten swing state voters worried about misinformation, does 188 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 3: that actually potentially suggest though, that voters are very aware 189 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 3: of the content in which they're taking political content, Specifically 190 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 3: in this election, and whether or not there could have 191 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 3: been foreign interference or artificial intelligence things like deep fakes. 192 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 3: That that's not just something that say we in the 193 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 3: media are in the political realm are thinking about that, 194 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,319 Speaker 3: voters are actually quite wary of and privy to. 195 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I think that that is almost a 196 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 5: bigger concern among Republicans that AI is going to be 197 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 5: a problem in the election in terms of the swing 198 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 5: state voters. It's one thing to know it exists. It's 199 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 5: another thing to see it in your daily lives. And 200 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 5: I think we've seen folks have a hard time deciphering 201 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 5: all of this, you know. At the same time, a 202 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 5: whole media base online that pushes out fake videos all 203 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 5: the time. The average American probably isn't sitting there in 204 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:11,719 Speaker 5: fact checking themselves, and so that actually ranks lower on 205 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 5: the concerns about AI. By the way, I mean, the 206 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 5: biggest concern for voters is privacy. But you know, I 207 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,719 Speaker 5: think as this campaign plays out, this is something that 208 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 5: I think the Democrats are going to lead into talking 209 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 5: about quite a bit, just given the foreign actors that 210 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:29,439 Speaker 5: have moved against Democrats in the past. I think I'll 211 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 5: be incumbent on President Biden to raise this concern on 212 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 5: the voters. 213 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 3: All right, Eli Yoakley, always great to have you on 214 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 3: poll day. He is US politics analyst at Morning Consult, 215 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 3: which of course is Bloomberg's partner in this poll of 216 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 3: the seven key swing states. But we want to dig 217 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 3: more into the issue specifically around election security, given the 218 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 3: concerns that swing state voters say, according to our polling, 219 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 3: they have around this election cycle and turn out of 220 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:54,959 Speaker 3: Tina Barton. She is vice chair of the Committee on 221 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 3: Safe and Secure Elections and she is joining us in 222 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,679 Speaker 3: our Washington, d C studio. Welcome to and bur Television 223 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 3: and Radio. Tina, Thank you so much, thank you for 224 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 3: coming in. Obviously, as we are in this election cycle, 225 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 3: a lot of people are living with the ghost of 226 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 3: twenty twenty and everything that has happened in the aftermath. 227 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 3: Compared to what we saw four years ago. How safe 228 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 3: and secure will elections be this year? 229 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 7: Well, I think one of the things that we're specifically 230 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 7: focused on with the Committee for Safe and Secure Elections 231 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 7: is the safety and security of election officials. And one 232 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 7: of the things that we have seen is even in 233 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 7: just the last year that election officials more than ten 234 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 7: percent have increased is saying that they have been threatened 235 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 7: in the past. So we've gone from twenty eight percent 236 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 7: up to thirty eight percent. So we're seeing this increase 237 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,679 Speaker 7: of threats towards election officials, and so part of our 238 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 7: focus is keeping them safe, but also keeping the process safe. 239 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 7: So with the committee, we're out doing tabletop exercises all 240 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 7: across the country, some of those being in some of 241 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:52,720 Speaker 7: these swing states where we're holding the tabletops and bringing 242 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 7: all of these issues to the table and bringing election 243 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 7: officials and law enforcement and saying how would we work 244 00:12:57,679 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 7: through this if this were to happen in your community, 245 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 7: in your county or state. 246 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 2: I want to hear more about that. What kind of 247 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 2: scenarios are you modeling into the include the monitoring of 248 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 2: drop boxes. For instance, we saw a lot of concern 249 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 2: in the midterms the last election of masked people, in 250 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 2: some cases sitting in trucks, in some cases visibly armed 251 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 2: filming people as they drop balance. 252 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 7: So we certainly have a few different scenarios. One of 253 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 7: those can be the dropbox scenario. We work usually with 254 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 7: the Secretary of the Chief election official of the state 255 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 7: or the county to see what are you concerned about 256 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 7: happening in your state. So typically some of the things 257 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 7: that we're working on now would be things like fentanyl 258 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 7: getting an unknown substance in the mail. We've seen that 259 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 7: happen and you know, approximately a half a dozen states 260 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 7: and over the last nine months. So we're looking at that. 261 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 7: What would that look like for your continuation of operation, 262 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:47,559 Speaker 7: What would that look like for chain of command and 263 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 7: chain of custody if that were to happen. We're also 264 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,959 Speaker 7: looking at things like swatting. What happens if the chief 265 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 7: election official is swatted and what should they expect to happen. 266 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 7: And we're seeing that happen to election officials across the country, 267 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 7: also some of those being in swing states, and we're 268 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 7: seeing it on both sides of both parties, that is 269 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 7: happening to election officials. We're also looking at disturbances. What 270 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 7: if something happens in an actual precinct, what if it 271 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:18,199 Speaker 7: happens outside maybe it is armed individuals who are bringing 272 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 7: intimidation to the polling place. Working through those scenarios, hearing 273 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 7: exactly what would we do, what type of plan would 274 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 7: we put into place, and making sure we are prepared 275 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 7: for it if it should happen. 276 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 3: So does do larger amounts of resources now have to 277 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 3: go into making sure polling places are secure as they're 278 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 3: greater coordination with either local or state authorities, just given 279 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 3: the increase in threats that you have spoken to. 280 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, Recently, the Brandan Center did a survey with election 281 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 7: officials and we saw that over ninety percent of them 282 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 7: have had to increase their budget and make improvements that 283 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 7: are security related, whether that's hardening their facilities or it's 284 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 7: securing the process itself. So they're putting lots of effort, 285 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 7: lots of money into that. But we're also seeing eighty 286 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 7: three percent of them saying we have to have some 287 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 7: budget increases over the next five years or our elections 288 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 7: are going to be in trouble. We need better funding. 289 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 2: Is this geographically neutral? Are there states that are more 290 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 2: problematic than others when you look at this on a 291 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 2: national level, or is this something everyone's dealing. 292 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 7: With, certainly in those swing states there's a lot of passion. 293 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 7: Is that there are a lot you know, I mean 294 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 7: Michigan obviously has seen it here. I'm from Michigan. We've had, 295 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 7: you know, our chief election official, Secretary Benson, who has 296 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 7: had individuals at her home. Our governor. I was threatened 297 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 7: after the twenty twenty election cycle. We've seen it in Georgia, Arizona, 298 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 7: places like that where we are seeing that, but we're 299 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 7: seeing this across the country. This is a country wide problem. 300 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 7: When you're seeing that nearly forty percent of election officials, 301 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 7: and we have over ten thousand in our country, forty 302 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 7: percent is a really high number to say that they've 303 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 7: been threatened to harass. 304 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 2: You were threatened because of your work with this organization. 305 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 7: Work as a former election official. 306 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 2: I see in what form were you threatened? 307 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 7: So I actually had a voice that came in after 308 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 7: the November twenty twenty election where the individual said that 309 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 7: when I least expected it, that he would kill me. 310 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 7: And so that individual was actually arrested by the DOJA identified. Yes, 311 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 7: he pled guilty in February of this year and will 312 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 7: be sentenced in July of this year for threating to 313 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 7: stay me in my family. I was the chief election 314 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 7: official in Rochester Hills, Michigan. 315 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 2: I'm sorry you had to go through this. 316 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: So this is this is personal. 317 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 3: It's personal, absolutely, and I'm sure that there are countless 318 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 3: stories like yours that are. 319 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 7: Out there again with nearly forty percent out of over 320 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 7: ten thousand election officials saying they've been threatened, harassed, or abused. 321 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 7: I am one of that thirty eight percent, but I'm 322 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 7: certainly one that is being incredibly vocal to bring attention 323 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 7: to the fact that this is happening in our country. 324 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 7: Your statistics and your report that you put out that 325 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 7: over fifty percent are concerned about violence for the election. 326 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 7: We see that paralleled in the elections community, where we're 327 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 7: fifty three percent of election officials are concerned about their 328 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 7: safety and the safety of their colleagues. 329 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 3: And obviously a lot of this is threats to physical safety, 330 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 3: but I would imagine technology, things like phone calls or 331 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,920 Speaker 3: deep fakes, or the ability to access other people only 332 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 3: makes that threat even more pronounced. 333 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 7: Right, And that's one of the scenarios that we work through. 334 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 7: Is you know, in twenty twenty we had the pandemic, 335 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 7: and we were responding to all of those things in 336 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 7: the political emotion that was rising then, and in twenty 337 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 7: twenty four, each election cycle seems to bring something new. 338 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 7: We have AI and that's exactly what we're seeing, and 339 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 7: that's one of the scenarios that we work through. If 340 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 7: there were to be some sort of a call go out, 341 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:33,240 Speaker 7: say from the election administrator, mirroring their voice and sending 342 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 7: that out to others, what would that look like for them? 343 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 2: Tina, thank you for being so flexible with your timing today. 344 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 2: I'm well we can have this conversation on Bloomberg. It's 345 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 2: a very important one. Tina Barton is Vice chair of 346 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 2: the Committee on Safe and Secure Elections with us here 347 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 2: on Balance of Power on this day that we do 348 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 2: learn both Democrats and Republicans share the same fears leading 349 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 2: into this election cycle. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines 350 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 2: will assemble our panel next on the fastest show in politics, 351 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. 352 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:08,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 353 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 354 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 1: and enroud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can 355 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,959 Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 356 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 1: York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 357 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 2: You mentioned the invite Kayley Benjamin Ettnyaho before a joint 358 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 2: session of Congress, knowing that he is one of the 359 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,199 Speaker 2: most controversial figures in the world. Right now and certainly 360 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 2: has been making life difficult for Joe Biden. This is 361 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 2: how Mike Johnson is going to answer the ICC arrest 362 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 2: warrant by inviting him here to the US. Remember Aaron 363 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 2: David Miller was talking to us last night about what 364 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 2: would happen if they wanted to extradite Benjamin Etya, who 365 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:51,399 Speaker 2: while he was outside of Israel. 366 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, it definitely presents a whole host of questions, not 367 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 3: least of which also is how does the Democratic Senate 368 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 3: leader Chuck Schumer deal with this, because theoretically he would 369 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:03,640 Speaker 3: need to be on board. But remember it was Chuck 370 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 3: Schumer who earlier this year gave a speech on the 371 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 3: Senate floor essentially calling for new elections in Israel and 372 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 3: the ouster of the very prime minister that we're talking 373 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:13,439 Speaker 3: about here that he could then invite to speak to 374 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 3: his chamber in this joint session. It's very politically and 375 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 3: geopolitically complicated. 376 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:20,880 Speaker 2: It's hard to tell what's real here with so much 377 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 2: messaging happening in the House. But let's see what the 378 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 2: panel thinks. Jennie Shanzano is with US Bloomberg Politics contributor, 379 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 2: of course, Democratic analyst and now senior Democracy fellow with 380 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 2: the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, 381 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 2: joined by Lester Munson, Republican strategist, principal at BGR Group. Jenny, 382 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 2: What's Joe Biden going to do if Benjamin Netanya, who 383 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 2: is brought to Washington to address a joint session of Congress, 384 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 2: he might not get a meeting at the White House 385 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:46,880 Speaker 2: on that trip, right? 386 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know. 387 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,640 Speaker 8: I mean Joe Biden did call what the ICC did 388 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,680 Speaker 8: and the steps they have taken outrageous, so he has 389 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 8: been very clear about his views. And of course we 390 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 8: are not a signature signatory rather to the ICC, so 391 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 8: net and Yahoo would be free to travel here, we'd 392 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:09,679 Speaker 8: be under no obligation to arrest net and Yahoo. That said, 393 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 8: it does put Joe Biden, it does put Chuck Schumer 394 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 8: in the Democrats in a bit of a political quandary 395 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 8: because you do have many members supporting the president with 396 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 8: his outrage, but you also have some like Pokan in 397 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 8: Wisconsin who have said of net and Yahoo visits, I 398 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,439 Speaker 8: am going to help the ICC issue this arrest warrant, 399 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:32,919 Speaker 8: which is I believe outrageous itself that he would do that, 400 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 8: But it is what we're hearing. So it does divide 401 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 8: the Democrats, and it is politically for that reason a 402 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 8: moment that Chuck Schumer says he is working his way through. 403 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 6: I think in the end he. 404 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 8: Will go along with the Speaker on this, but it is, 405 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 8: you know, a political challenge for Democrats at this point. 406 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 3: Well and for one Democrat in particular, lesser being President Biden. 407 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 3: We have been talking a lot about our new poll 408 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 3: out today, Bloomberg's Swing State Pole with More Consoled, and 409 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 3: question is asked in that poll on Israel. Back in November, 410 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 3: we asked about whether Joe Biden was doing the right 411 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 3: amount to help help Israel. More people said that in 412 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,160 Speaker 3: November than they do now. Increasing numbers say he's either 413 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,479 Speaker 3: doing too much or too little, which speaks to the 414 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 3: idea that potentially for this Democratic administration, there is no 415 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 3: real winning on this issue. 416 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 9: Lester, Well, it's a difficult foreign policy issue. There's no 417 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 9: doubt Israel and the Palestinians presents an issue that every 418 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 9: single American president has struggled with. But it's also an 419 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 9: opportunity for President Biden to show leadership, I think, embrace, 420 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 9: embracing the Prime Minister if he comes having the meeting 421 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 9: in the White House. You can have tough words when 422 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 9: the door closes, but showing staunch support for a US 423 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 9: ally in a difficult situation is something the American people appreciate. 424 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,880 Speaker 9: I think, even if they may have some concerns about 425 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 9: the policy, they want to see an American president stand 426 00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 9: up and take tough positions because it's in the best 427 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,120 Speaker 9: interest in the United States. And I think in this case, 428 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 9: if you're choosing between Israel and Hamas, there's only one uh, 429 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 9: there's only one choice the president can actually make, and 430 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 9: so this is an opportunity for him if he wants 431 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:10,919 Speaker 9: to seize it. 432 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 2: We're wondering, as well as we spend time with our 433 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 2: panel today, Janie and Lester, if there's going to be 434 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 2: an answer in Congress to the controversy surrounding Supreme Court 435 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 2: Justice Samuel Alito flying an upside down American flag realizing 436 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,679 Speaker 2: he said his wife put it there, but out in 437 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:34,360 Speaker 2: front of his house in Alexandria, Virginia, following the election 438 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, representing the Stop the Steel movement. Even 439 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 2: some Republicans are criticizing Alito for this genie, and there's 440 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 2: been talk potentially of a legislative answer, although Dick Durbin 441 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 2: in the Senate, of course Senate Judiciary Committee says Samuel 442 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 2: Alito should simply recuse himself. 443 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 1: What do you think? 444 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, the way to it would be to 445 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 8: do what justices always do, which is they make a 446 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,919 Speaker 8: personal recusal decision. So I think that's very important. I 447 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 8: know there are steps in the Senate and in the 448 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 8: House and discussions about censure, and we may see something 449 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,640 Speaker 8: like that. But I will tell you just from a 450 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 8: political standpoint, I am not clear on why the Biden 451 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 8: administration and President Biden, given where he is in the 452 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 8: Bloomberg Council poll and in this election overall, doesn't think 453 00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 8: that now is the time to take bold action as 454 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 8: it pertains to the Supreme Court. We have Donald Trump 455 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 8: talking about restricting contraception, we have the overturning of Roe v. Wade, 456 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,440 Speaker 8: all kinds of concerns about that. Why not go out 457 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:45,119 Speaker 8: there and say, you know what, I wasn't sure about 458 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,640 Speaker 8: packing the court, but now I'm going to because if 459 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 8: Donald Trump wins, he will have two more appointments to 460 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 8: the Court when Thomas and Alito retire, and that will 461 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 8: be a five to four majority, where Donald Trump will 462 00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,040 Speaker 8: have chosen five Supreme Court justices and those just this 463 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 8: is we'll sit on that court rather long after he 464 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 8: is gone and when your children are growing up and 465 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,679 Speaker 8: becoming adults. So now is the time for Joe Biden 466 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,679 Speaker 8: to take action and show that strength that Lester was 467 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 8: just talking about. Not be cautious talk about some kind 468 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 8: of Supreme Court reform, whether it's mandatory retirements or whether 469 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 8: it is packing the court. You may not get it 470 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,120 Speaker 8: done like FDR, but at least you tried, and this 471 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 8: is an issue that people are concerned about. 472 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,640 Speaker 3: Lester, just talk of packing the court though we'resk backfiring. 473 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:39,440 Speaker 3: Does that potentially seem extreme to some undecided voters. 474 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, Genie and I have been in total 475 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 9: agreement until now. I think it would be a mistake 476 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 9: for the president to do that. The Supreme Courts and 477 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 9: the judiciary is a separate, independent branch of government. Just 478 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 9: because you get a policy outcome that you don't approve of, 479 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 9: doesn't mean one branch of government should go to war 480 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 9: with the other. O. I think the specter of packing 481 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 9: the Court is as is worse than any single decision 482 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 9: the Supreme Court could come out with the idea that 483 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 9: you're going to politically manipulate the structure of the Supreme 484 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 9: Court to guarantee certain outcomes goes against the entire purpose 485 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,199 Speaker 9: of having an independent judiciary. So I think that I 486 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 9: do think that would be a mistake. I think he 487 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 9: can he can talk about his position on the issues, 488 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,880 Speaker 9: and he can talk about if if the Democrats want 489 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 9: to pursue this, you know, family planning issues or the 490 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 9: abortion issue, entirely fair game. Go make the case they're 491 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,160 Speaker 9: going to have. They're going to have pretty good reaction, 492 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 9: I think among voters. But I think changing the nature 493 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 9: of the Supreme Court is going too far. 494 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 2: I think this is fascinating where this conversation has led 495 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 2: us here. So what do you think, Genie. Could Joe 496 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 2: Biden motivate enough progressives with that move to make up 497 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 2: for the many conservatives he would anger. 498 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 8: You know, I'm not convinced he would do any better 499 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 8: than FDR and packing the court. I would assume it's 500 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 8: not going to work the way it didn't for ft A. 501 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 8: But I'm talking about politically to show strength. The Constitution 502 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,200 Speaker 8: does not set the number of justices on the Supreme Court. 503 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 8: It is fluctuated throughout American history. It is up to 504 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 8: Congress to set that number. They did so after the 505 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 8: Civil War, and they can do so again. The president's 506 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 8: job would be to convince a member of Congress to 507 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 8: introduce such legislation and let them go at it. But 508 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 8: my view is that politically only, this is the kind 509 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,400 Speaker 8: of thing that Joe Biden needs to do. Why are 510 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 8: we still waiting on executive orders at the border? Why 511 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,879 Speaker 8: are we waiting for action on the Supreme Court? You 512 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,639 Speaker 8: are the president. People are frustrated, and you're in poll numbers. 513 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,800 Speaker 8: Just look at the Bloomberg Morning Council poll. Don't look 514 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 8: so good. You've got to show strength. So from a 515 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 8: political standpoint, I think he should, and I think he 516 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 8: should push for it and let the chips fall where 517 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 8: they may. 518 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,680 Speaker 3: All right, Genie Shanzano and Lester Munson our political panel today. 519 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,239 Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Lester joining us from bgr at 520 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 3: the International Group and Genie and Ze No of course 521 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 3: is now newly a Senior Democracy Fellow with the Center 522 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:07,200 Speaker 3: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Great conversation, guys, 523 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 3: Thank you so much. It's also worth noting we're having 524 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 3: this conversation Joe about the Supreme Court on the same 525 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 3: day that the Senate today confirmed the two hundred federal judge. 526 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 1: That's right. 527 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 3: Under the Biden administration. It's about a month earlier than 528 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 3: when we hit that month mark under Donald Trump. But 529 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 3: as we were just discussing, while Biden has gotten to 530 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 3: confirm two hundred judges during his tenure, not anyone confirmed 531 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 3: to the Supreme Court. Donald Trump got three of those. 532 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true. Well, I mean you've got Kazanji Brown Jackson. 533 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 2: Maybe we'll get another three. 534 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:36,760 Speaker 1: We'll see about that. 535 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:37,639 Speaker 3: I don't know about that. 536 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 1: It's still time. We won't predict anything. You're listening to 537 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:49,400 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays 538 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 1: at noon Eastern on Eppo car Play and then Roud 539 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,880 Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 540 00:27:54,960 --> 00:28:00,119 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 541 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 2: Welcome to the fastest show in politics, Wednesday edition. It's 542 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 2: Balance of Power Life from Washington with an eye on 543 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,680 Speaker 2: what's happening in Israel and Gaza. We've been talking about 544 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 2: the temporary peer that the US military just spent millions 545 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 2: of dollars in many weeks to build to try to 546 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 2: deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza, working our way around in 547 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 2: some cases, our ally in Israel, with gates closed in 548 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,520 Speaker 2: many cases, to get food to where it needs to 549 00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 2: go in Gaza. Kaylee. The word from the UN World 550 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,639 Speaker 2: Food Program today is not good. This three hundred and 551 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:39,479 Speaker 2: twenty million dollar project is apparently going to fail unless 552 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 2: Israel does a better job ensuring its security, according. 553 00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 1: To the UN. 554 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, the UN coming out yesterday saying that no aid 555 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 3: trucks had entered within the last two days via the 556 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,960 Speaker 3: floating peer set up for sea deliveries. They also said 557 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 3: in that same statement that its suspended food distribution in 558 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:57,800 Speaker 3: Rafa due to lack of supplies and insecurity. So it 559 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 3: speaks to just how dire the situation has becomes. You 560 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 3: have so many people on the brink of famine in 561 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 3: all actuality, something that of course the Peer was aimed 562 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 3: at trying to address, but perhaps not doing so as 563 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 3: successfully as initially hoped. We did hear from Major General 564 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,479 Speaker 3: Pat Rider, a spokesperson for the Defense Department, about this, 565 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 3: and this is what he had to say. 566 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 10: It is a complex operation and so you know, we've 567 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,080 Speaker 10: been very clear from the beginning that we're going to 568 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 10: take a crawl, walk, run approach to make sure that 569 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 10: we are implementing this system in a way where we're 570 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 10: working out the processes, the procedures, and including taking into 571 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 10: account the security conditions. So I think you're going to 572 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 10: see as we work together the amount of aid increase 573 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 10: and the ability to get it distributed increase. 574 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 3: General Pat Rider yesterday joining us now for more here 575 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,479 Speaker 3: on balance of power is Carmeil Arbitt joining us from 576 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 3: the Atlantic Council where she a senior fellow for the 577 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 3: Middle East programs in the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Carmeil, 578 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 3: always great to have you back on the show when 579 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 3: we think about the aid situation specifically and the difficulty 580 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 3: of getting aid to those who needed He was speaking 581 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 3: there of the security conditions that have to be taken 582 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 3: into consideration here given the status on the ground right now, 583 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 3: how realistic is it that those conditions can improve to 584 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 3: the extent they need to in order to get food 585 00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 3: ed in at scale. 586 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 11: Yeah, thank you so much for having me back on 587 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 11: the challenges of distributing aid to Gaza and throughout the 588 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 11: Strip have not gotten easier. To the contrary it's only 589 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 11: gotten more complex as the destruction of the strip has worsened. 590 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 11: There are really three challenges here that all touch on 591 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 11: the security piece, which is logistical, the situation of desperation, 592 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 11: which is really also impeding on that distribution, and then 593 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,720 Speaker 11: ultimately political. When the US announced that they were going 594 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 11: to set up this peer, it was very clear to 595 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 11: everyone involved that this was going to be a very 596 00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 11: expensive and politically meaningful gesture, but that realistically it was 597 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 11: going to solve some of the key logistical issues, which 598 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 11: is finding safe, secure and functioning roads to transfer that 599 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 11: aid across the Gaza Strip and to bring it to 600 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 11: the communities that need it most. So that's the first 601 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 11: challenge that they're dealing with. The second is one of desperation. 602 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 11: When gozens see these trucks, they often are fearful that 603 00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 11: it is the only time they're going to have access 604 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 11: to that sort of aid, and so they are charging 605 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,360 Speaker 11: those trucks and grabbing things and engaging in what some 606 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 11: are calling self distribution because again they are desperate. 607 00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:35,760 Speaker 6: And then the third piece is really political will. 608 00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 11: Here we're seeing challenges on the Israeli side as well, 609 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 11: where Israeli extremists are looking to stop the flow of 610 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 11: aid into Israel, but there is an incentive on the 611 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 11: part of the Israeli government to move that aid forward 612 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 11: as it works to coordinate support for its Rafak incursion 613 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 11: with the United States. So all that is to say, 614 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,120 Speaker 11: the challenges are formidable and will continue to be, and 615 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 11: we might not see that port operational until this war 616 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 11: is nearly met. 617 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 2: Well, that's saying something we just heard from Jake Sullivan 618 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,360 Speaker 2: Carmeil at the White House National Security Advisor to the President, 619 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:16,880 Speaker 2: who says aid from the Peer has reached some Palestinian civilians, 620 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 2: but the fact is it takes at least a day 621 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 2: to process the aid of the peer. There's very limited 622 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:28,360 Speaker 2: distribution in some areas of Gaza, certainly in Rafa. Was 623 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,479 Speaker 2: this a flawed concept to begin with? 624 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 11: Look, this is an impossible situation, given, as I said, 625 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 11: the security situation in Gaza, the inability to ensure that 626 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,240 Speaker 11: anyone who is delivering that aid is going to be safe, 627 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 11: destruction on roads, all of these people, all of these 628 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,600 Speaker 11: other pieces. In many ways, this was mission impossible but 629 00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:52,360 Speaker 11: also mission necessary. Just because it's difficult to get aid 630 00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 11: to the people in Gaza, does that mean that anyone 631 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 11: can step away from this imperative. People in Gaza are 632 00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,240 Speaker 11: on the brink of a famine and their situation isn't 633 00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 11: getting any better. 634 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 6: So it behooves the international community to. 635 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 11: Look for any possible avenue to increase that aid and distribution. 636 00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,440 Speaker 11: But these types of complications and hiccops are going to 637 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:15,959 Speaker 11: be inevitable given that there's also no real centralized civil 638 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 11: distribution network within Gaza, and this blows open the continual 639 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,640 Speaker 11: problem and that Israel has no strategy for the day 640 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 11: after and what comes next. And so we're seeing that 641 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 11: play out in the immediate term, and we're going to 642 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 11: continue to say see it play out in the future. 643 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,080 Speaker 3: Well, let's keep thinking about what comes next, because in 644 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,520 Speaker 3: light of what we have seen so far in the 645 00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 3: last twenty four hours, Ireland, Norway and Spain announcing that 646 00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,960 Speaker 3: they would recognize a Palestinian state and the subsequent is 647 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:47,480 Speaker 3: really recalling its ambassadors to those countries not reacting well 648 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 3: to this. I wonder, Carmel if a number of sovereign 649 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,800 Speaker 3: countries saying that they would recognize a Palestinian state actually 650 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,920 Speaker 3: makes it less likely that that Palestinian state can be 651 00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 3: realized in the near term because it only cast Is 652 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 3: those currently in power to Israel to kind of retrench 653 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 3: and circle the wagons and invoice opposition to the idea 654 00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:08,760 Speaker 3: of a two state solution. 655 00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 11: That's exactly right, the declaration of Palestinian statehood by countries, which, 656 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 11: mind you, more than one hundred countries I think about 657 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 11: one hundred and forty have already done that. But doing 658 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:23,719 Speaker 11: that in this moment and generally is deeply alienating for 659 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,360 Speaker 11: the Israelis who feel that the Palestinians can't just be 660 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,279 Speaker 11: given this statehood recognition. 661 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 6: Statehood must come. 662 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:36,400 Speaker 11: Through a negotiated, durable, two state solution, an agreement that 663 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,440 Speaker 11: both parties have come to. And the problem is that 664 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:43,200 Speaker 11: statehood is really just words. There aren't very serious practical 665 00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,360 Speaker 11: implications for this, and so it doesn't move the parties 666 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:48,840 Speaker 11: closer together, it just divides them further. 667 00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:54,880 Speaker 2: Where's the administration now on operations in RAFA? Because our 668 00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:58,560 Speaker 2: reporting says that the administration is softening a stand on this. 669 00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 2: I believe it was a red line for President Biden 670 00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,319 Speaker 2: said that on the record a couple of weeks ago. 671 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:06,400 Speaker 2: Is that red line moving? 672 00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:08,640 Speaker 6: So I think the. 673 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:10,920 Speaker 11: Question is whether the red line is moving or the 674 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,760 Speaker 11: Israelis are moving, and the answer is somewhere in between 675 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 11: the two. The Israelis have taken very seriously what the 676 00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:20,239 Speaker 11: United States has been saying, and there's been sort of 677 00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:22,520 Speaker 11: a difference between what they're saying publicly and what they're 678 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 11: saying behind closed doors. So publicly, Biden had put forward 679 00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,359 Speaker 11: what was increasingly sounding like a generic red line any 680 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,479 Speaker 11: type of incursion into Raffa was unacceptable, But privately that's 681 00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,080 Speaker 11: not really what these conversations have looked like. What they've 682 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,439 Speaker 11: really been saying is that any incursion into Raffa has 683 00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:40,560 Speaker 11: to look a certain way. 684 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:42,279 Speaker 6: There has to be serious and. 685 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:46,480 Speaker 11: Meaningful efforts to evacuate civilians, there has to be a cathway. 686 00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:49,760 Speaker 11: The type of operation that's carried out matters a lot. 687 00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,279 Speaker 11: And what we're seeing and hearing is that what the 688 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,040 Speaker 11: Israelis are intending to do and have already begun doing, 689 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,399 Speaker 11: is relatively narrow in that what they're really focusing on 690 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:04,040 Speaker 11: is tunnels and transit routes in Rafa rather than kind 691 00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,640 Speaker 11: of a larger scale piece, and that will allow them 692 00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,240 Speaker 11: to contain civilian casualties, and in many ways already had. 693 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,440 Speaker 11: So we're finding a convergence in terms of what the 694 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:19,000 Speaker 11: Israeli and American position had been around Rafa Carmeil. 695 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,239 Speaker 3: Of course, while the administration the US administration's position has 696 00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:23,959 Speaker 3: long been that they wouldn't like to see a major 697 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:28,360 Speaker 3: ground operation in Rafa that could cause massive civilian casualties, 698 00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 3: they also have it been loudly, repeatedly calling for a 699 00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:36,040 Speaker 3: temporary ceasefire deal in sending diplomats to the Middle East 700 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:39,279 Speaker 3: to try and further that effort. It feels like, though 701 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:42,120 Speaker 3: now for all of the hope that maybe existed weeks ago, 702 00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,239 Speaker 3: it's long gone. Is there any real prospect of a 703 00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:46,759 Speaker 3: temporary ceasefire deal now? 704 00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,360 Speaker 11: I think the parties are going to continue to negotiate. 705 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 11: The Israelis had hoped that the thread of a RAFAF 706 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,080 Speaker 11: operation and what it could look like would strengthen their 707 00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,719 Speaker 11: hands at the negotiating table, and felt that the US 708 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,640 Speaker 11: had taken that away from them, essentially by hamstringing the 709 00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,960 Speaker 11: extent of what Rafa could be. Because of that, the 710 00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:08,239 Speaker 11: Egyptians had really withdrawn their role from this. Egypt had been, 711 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,120 Speaker 11: of course, also trying to prevent a RAFAS operation. But 712 00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,640 Speaker 11: what you see is the cutter is continuing to move ahead. 713 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,200 Speaker 11: We're also hearing conversations shift where we're not just looking 714 00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:21,440 Speaker 11: out a temporary ceasefire as this war starts to again kind. 715 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,960 Speaker 6: Of wind down. Remember that there are only. 716 00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:28,560 Speaker 11: Four brigades of Hamas that are still excuse me, battalions 717 00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,520 Speaker 11: that are still operating in Rafas, and that's what Israel 718 00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,200 Speaker 11: has been really interested in. But starting to think now 719 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,319 Speaker 11: more and more about what a long term out could 720 00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 11: look like. And so you have Cutter still at the 721 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,799 Speaker 11: talk of temporary ceasefire talks, but also partnering up with 722 00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:46,520 Speaker 11: the Saudis Is the US and the Saudis and negotiate 723 00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,920 Speaker 11: and a potential long term negotiation under for normalization, and 724 00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,640 Speaker 11: that could also include an end to the conflict. 725 00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,720 Speaker 2: Carmel, your insights are always so helpfully. Appreciate your time today, Carmel, 726 00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:03,200 Speaker 2: arbit throws of uncertainty over the effectiveness of this peer. 727 00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,839 Speaker 2: We'll see what happens with US operations as we move 728 00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,480 Speaker 2: our way forward, and analysis from Carmel at the Atlantic 729 00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:13,520 Speaker 2: Council always helps us out from ver, thanks for listening 730 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:16,800 Speaker 2: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe 731 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,560 Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify. 732 00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:19,440 Speaker 1: Or wherever. 733 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,080 Speaker 2: You get your podcasts, and you can find us live 734 00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:25,920 Speaker 2: every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg 735 00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:26,640 Speaker 2: dot com