WEBVTT - US, China Tensions Grow Over Balloons 0:00:01.320 --> 0:00:05.680 This is Bloomberg business Week Inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.400 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.440 --> 0:00:13.640 global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:22.560 Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim stinebec from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:31.960 So Russia, all right, folks. I have to say earlier today, 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:35.280 when our producer Paul Brennan and our team Maddie and 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:37.040 all of us were putting the show together, we realized 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:39.760 that there really was in a large way a theme 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:42.960 of geopolitical tensions. We talked a little bit about a 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:45.720 Chinese invasion of Taiwan, what it would mean for just 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:50.720 a possible scenario in terms of ships to the UK. Specifically, 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:53.520 we had the President talk about objects in the sky. 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:56.160 But getting ready to hopefully meet with President g a 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:59.000 lot going on. We've seen China the US go back 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:01.600 and forth with saying actions. So we wanted to check 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:05.040 in um and get a view on this and we 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:07.160 have a perfect guest to do that, and especially when 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:12.440 it comes to concerns about you know, possible escalating military tensions. 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.240 So let's head to Colorado Springs and that's where we 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:20.120 find retired US Air Force Lieutenant General David dep Deptula 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:23.440 excuse me, he's now advisory board member at Academy Securities 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:28.040 and he with he's with us via zoom from Colorado Springs. Um, General, 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:31.400 thank you so much for being with us here at Bloomberg. 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:34.840 There is a lot going on us China. How do 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:37.880 you kind of gauge the tensions that are out there 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:41.479 and where it could possibly go? Well, first, thanks very 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:45.119 much for um having me on. UM. What I'd tell 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:51.400 you is very uncertain period of time right now. UM, 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:53.920 if you take a look of what's happened with respect 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:56.800 to the Chinese spycraft that entered the United States and 0:01:56.880 --> 0:02:00.760 was eventually shot down, Uh, in the elopment of the 0:02:00.800 --> 0:02:05.760 US government's understanding of the Chinese military goals and some 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:09.800 of the new details they're coming out, they really reveal 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:16.320 some misreadings of the U S's reaction by Chinese officials, 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:20.120 and that indicates just how difficult it is for the 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:25.280 United States and China to discern each other's intentions. And 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:29.239 quite frankly, the challenge there is that gap could lead 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:34.200 to greater mistrust in our miscalculation. So we're still trying 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:37.880 to figure out what's going on UM. You know, there's 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:41.560 some people that believe that in all actuality, the balloon 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:45.880 went off course. But then again, the Chinese officials and 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:48.919 balloon operators appeared to make a series of bad decisions. 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:51.600 So there's still a lot going on that the US 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:55.000 government still doesn't understand, and we've got to figure it 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:57.679 out before we move. But the other thing that's all 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:01.120 points to, UM is we've got to have better communication 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:05.520 at the senior most levels between our two countries. Well, 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:07.320 I will say I think I thought the most notable 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:12.440 thing President Biden's comments UM earlier were that he does 0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:14.760 plan to reach out to President g So it wasn't 0:03:14.800 --> 0:03:18.320 like that was was a stop. What in terms of 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:22.200 that Chinese balloon? What is it that, as the President said, 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:24.720 they're still kind of figuring stuff out, uh, And what 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:29.200 it was all about? What development or what known information 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:33.560 could come out that would make you a little concerned. Well, 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:37.440 I'll be frank with you, of more concern than whatever 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:44.400 the balloon might have collected. Um. It's the uncertainty, if 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:48.640 you will, and the indecision that emanated from the Pentagon 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:52.200 and the White House that was evidenced as the Chinese 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:55.600 balloon entered the United States airspace. Um, it was pretty 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:58.440 clear that the administration didn't have any answer for that 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:01.560 kind of a problem. Uh. And we still don't know 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:05.119 if the Secretary of Defense actually notified the President when 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:08.680 the spycraft originally entered Alaskan airspace or not until it 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:13.440 entered the continentally United States. Now last week, to their credit, 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:16.000 at the Pentagon and the White House acted more rapidly 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:20.000 um and clearly they were more prepared. Uh. And the 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:22.720 President was notified in the time the matter. But the 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:26.039 point that I would like to make with you or 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:28.920 leave with you, is the issue was not necessarily whatever 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:33.120 intelligence could have been extracted by the balloon, it's the 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:37.320 policy decision not to have shot it down once it 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:41.320 was in US airspace well, and also potentially the lack 0:04:41.400 --> 0:04:44.960 of information about what's already in our airspace. When President 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:48.240 Biden was speaking, he mentioned three action items, and the 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:51.440 first one was just to establish about our inventory of 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:55.160 what's going on in our own aerospace. Does that concern 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:58.720 you at all us kind of not having enough knowledge 0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:02.200 about our what's already up there? Or and do you 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:07.680 buy a recalibration of the radars? An absolutely wonderful question. 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:10.120 Let me offer if I may, and I know times 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:14.360 of essence here, but sometimes these things are a bit complicated. 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:18.920 But the North American Air Air Defense Command or nora AD, 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:23.120 was originally designed to detect and then defend North America 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:27.400 from a catastrophic attack from the Soviet Union, and then 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:31.160 back after nine eleven, they had an additional role UH 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:36.800 to intercept and identify and redirect any unknown aircraft or 0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:41.800 unidentified aircraft heading towards restricted airspace. So then nora AD 0:05:41.880 --> 0:05:46.880 radars are tuned to detect aircraft or missiles that meet 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:52.119 that criteria, and balloons, at least until recently, generally don't 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:56.880 fit that category. So in order to track both will 0:05:56.920 --> 0:06:01.960 require modernization of nora AD's cur radars as well as 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:06.600 additional radars, and quite frankly, a reversal in the decline 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:10.000 of the resources that have been allocated in nora AD. Look. 0:06:10.080 --> 0:06:13.360 NORAD gets its aircraft from the Air Force, but our 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:16.240 air Force today is the oldest and the smallest it's 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:19.719 ever been in its history. So just like the Air Force, 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:23.440 nora AD has been underfunded and allowed to atrophy over 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:28.600 the past thirty years. It's still employing cold war air technology. 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:31.640 Just to give you in your audience an example, in 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:35.240 nineteen sixty nora Ad had about two thousand aircraft under 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:38.520 its command, and today they've got about thirty at any 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:42.000 one time. So these intrusions ought to be a wake 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:45.600 up call to rebuild our air and space defenses. So 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.320 your perspective is that basically what this revealed is that 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:51.800 our air and space defenses have some major holes. No 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:54.480 pun intended, but that's the bottom line, at least from 0:06:54.480 --> 0:07:01.280 your perspective. Absolutely, so, okay, So having said that, that's 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:04.080 one issue, and then of course there is though the 0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:06.560 way it kind of played out and just was a 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:10.239 reminder of kind of the tensions that already existed between 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:13.480 the United States and China. How do you see that 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:17.080 relationship that has been a complicated one from the get go. 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:20.280 How do you see it where businesses still want that exposure. 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:22.680 We know that, and yet we know it's a very 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:26.880 tricky one. Well, I think you know, to the President's credit, 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:29.360 he made the point that, look, we want to compete 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:32.520 with China, we don't want to engage in a conflict 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:35.000 with China. And I think what you'll see is a 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:39.000 redoubling of efforts out of the State Department, the Department 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:42.280 of Defense in the White House to assure that there 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:46.120 is greater connectivity at the senior most levels to be 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:50.040 able to rapidly discuss and put some of these issues 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:57.679 that may result in misinterpretation or miscommunication to BED and 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:02.560 and so. While there lots of different avenues to explore 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:06.360 with respect to what happened here, UM, I think this 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.560 has been a wake up call for both the leadership 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:13.000 of the United States as well as China, UM that 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:17.559 we we can't allow misunderstandings to get out of hand, 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:21.520 if in fact it might be a little bit. But 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:24.400 we've been lists the interesting point that he's been making, Carol, 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:27.200 We've been talking to retired US Air Force Lieutenant General 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:30.720 David Deptula. He is on the advisory board UH, and 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:33.480 he is an advisory board member over at Academy Securities, 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:36.040 and he's been talking with us from Colorado Springs. But 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:39.720 it's interesting, um, obviously a military perspective, but talking about 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:42.800 the potential, at least in his view, that there wasn't 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:45.800 the correct spending or upgrading, if you will, in terms 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:48.439 of the protections UH and the defense systems that are 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:51.319 needing to protect our our space basically in our aerospace, 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:54.440 which is really interesting and in some ways alarming given 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:57.920 some of the geopolitical tensions that we're facing globally right now. 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:00.800 I was really curious to get his thoughts on a 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:03.720 look ahead because we know that B. Lincoln potentially meeting 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:07.040 with Wangi and Munich later this week. I wonder what 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:11.840 someone like him, UM General Lieutenant General David Deptula would 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:14.480 be looking for out of that meeting. What would a 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:18.120 clue be to indicate where U S. China relations are heading? 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:21.319 General Deptula, I know we've gotten our connection back. We've 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:24.160 got about a minute or so left here. So there 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:27.040 are said to be meetings UM with the Secretary of 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:31.480 the United States. UM State Secretary should say, Uh, Anthony 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:35.960 Blincoln coming up between he and Chinese officials. What is 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:38.000 it that you kind of keep on your radar when 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:43.800 it comes to those kinds of meetings. Well, I apologize 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:46.400 that the connection dropped off there, But UM, what I 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:48.560 was about to say, or was in the midst of staying, 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:53.200 is that if anything good comes out of this particular incident, 0:09:53.720 --> 0:09:57.280 it's the fact that at senior levels at the UM 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:01.280 Secretary of State level secretary to fence level H in 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:05.480 discussions with their counterparts in China. UM, they've got to 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:09.600 develop more rapid means of being able to communicate UH, 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:14.679 to dampen down UH and explain different perspectives when these 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:18.720 kinds of situations arise. UM. Furthermore, I think that President 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:22.400 was spot on when he articulated UH the message to 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:25.480 the Chinese that they're gonna need to stop these kinds 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:31.920 of intrusions UM with respect to blatant UH disregard for 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:37.400 US airspace, whether it be over Alaska, the continental United States, Guam, 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:40.680 or Hawaii. So those are a couple of issues that 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:44.600 I think UH could move US towards an era where 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:48.920 there's greater communication and understanding, not less. All right, we're 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:50.720 gonna leave it on that and hopefully we can catch 0:10:50.800 --> 0:10:53.679 up with you real soon. David Toolah, he is of 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:58.480 course UH US Air Force Lutunant general retired. He's an 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:02.560 advisory board member over at cat Amy Security Securities. I 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:05.240 am tongue twisted on this Thursday, joining s VA Zoom 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:07.640 from Colorado Springs. But I do feel like anything US 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:12.000 China really pivotal and obviously one of our main geopolitical 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:15.680 issues going forward. Absolutely, it's it's critical to watch. All right. 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:18.040 You are listening in watching Bloomberg Business Week. This is 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:24.559 Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:27.640 Catch Just Live weekdays from two to five pm Easter 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:31.600 on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business Band. You too. You 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:34.640 can also listen live to our flagship New York station, 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:43.520 Just Say Alexa, Play Bloomberg, E Loove and Dirty. Alright, folks, 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:46.920 another day, another concern when it comes to a shooting 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.840 here in the United States. Uh, this time yesterday at 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:53.120 a mall in l Passa that killed one person injured 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:55.640 three others. It comes on the heels of the Monday 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:59.160 night shooting and Michigan State University that killed three students 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:02.400 and critically wounded five others. There are truly no words 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.280 at this point about this national crisis in the US. 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:07.360 So let's get to it with someone who has been 0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:10.280 studying this. Joshua Horritz is co director of the Center 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:13.080 for Gun Violence Solutions at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:15.679 of Public Health. As you know, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:18.640 founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg philanthropies. Mike also co 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:22.079 founder and supporter of every Town for Guns Safety. Josh 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:25.040 on the phone from Baltimore. Josh, Um, good to have 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:26.880 you here. I wish we kind of didn't have to 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.120 have you here because it means we've had more shootings. Um, 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:32.839 they have become so much the norm. How do you 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.520 look at it and how do we change the narrative? 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:38.679 How do we change the reality? Well, first of all, 0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:42.800 thanks for having me. I'm very appreciative of that. And um, 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.240 you know, in the wake of the toe to terrible tragedies, 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.000 I say this almost every time on the radio, but 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.800 I'm just so sorry to the families and the survivors 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:54.160 who have had to go through yet another, um terrible incident. So, 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:56.200 you know, I think there's a couple of things for 0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:58.480 the listeners to keep in mind. Number One, this is 0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:02.319 not inevitable. This is not always been what this country 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.479 is about. But in the last several years, we've seen 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:09.680 an incredible increase in people killed by guns, which includes 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:14.240 homicide and suicides and police violence as well. But that's 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:18.760 only almost forty nine people were killed. That's up eight 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:23.160 percent from UH and GO. Homicides in general have increased 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:28.200 about between two thousand nineteen and two one, and it 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:30.760 seems like we have a mass shooting. If it seems 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:32.480 like we have a mass shooting every day in America, 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:35.640 it's because we actually have to UM. Already, in this year, 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:39.200 there's been seventy two mass shootings UM, and there's lots 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:41.240 we can do about it. So I'm happy to jump 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:42.720 in if that's what you want me to keep going 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:46.520 on right now. Yeah, I mean solutions, Yeah, help us 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:49.720 have some hope here. So I think number one, you know, 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:54.439 we've seen a proliferation of assault weapons and high capacity magazines, 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:57.640 and that's you know, these shooters often use this. Not 0:13:57.800 --> 0:13:59.480 in the not in the ms U shooting, but just 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:03.079 think about all the other shootings, you know from UM, 0:14:03.120 --> 0:14:06.880 from the Marjorie Storm and Douglas and some of the shootings, 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:09.480 the last shooting in El Paso, right in the shooting 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:11.840 the Tree of Life Synagogue, all these things that are 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:14.920 fueled by hate UM. Assault weapons are often the weapons 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:17.760 of choice, and certainly high capacity guns with high capacity 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:21.360 magazines and those used to be banned, uh, you know 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:24.720 for between two thousand five and that made a difference 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:28.240 and from a policy perspective, but a moral perspective as well. 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:30.840 We should not have weapons of war running around our 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:34.080 streets for anybody over eighteen who sometimes but even without 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:37.000 a background check, can purchase these weapons. So that's something 0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:39.760 that we really need to focus on. And there's some 0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:43.120 good policy levers that we have as well. UM we 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:47.600 have laws that we know work, like licensing the purchase 0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:51.680 of firearms. We've seen dramatic results in states that have 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:56.120 enacted purchasing laws and then then the worse results that 0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:59.120 for instance, Missouri government of their their permanent law, we 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.680 saw a dramatic increase in homicide and suicides. So we 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:05.160 know that there are laws out there that work. Other 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:08.320 things that we want to see are our better firearm 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:12.200 domestic firearm violence, fire and removal laws. We know that 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:16.000 domestic violence is often a threat in some of these 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:18.960 mass shoutings, so there's a link between domestic violence and 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:20.680 mass shootings, and we know we need to do a 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:24.120 better job removing firearms from people who are under protective 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:28.520 order or have a domestic violence conviction. Can I can 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:29.720 I just jump in for a second, and if you 0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:33.640 saw yesterday West Virginia lawmakers UM voting to advance a 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.120 bill that would allow people with concealed carry permits to 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:39.960 bring firearms unto state college and university campuses. That's despite 0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:44.480 overwhelming opposition from frustrated students who came to the capital 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.080 there to testify against it. I mean, I feel like 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:50.480 the trend is going in the other direction unfortunately. So 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:52.920 it depends what state you're in. There are certainly states 0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:55.200 like West Virginia, and you can think about, you know, 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:58.280 the southern states like Alabama and Missouri and Mississippi and 0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:00.880 Missouri where the with a with the trend is going 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.680 the wrong way. There are other states that have made 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:06.600 a big past a lot of great laws and saved 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:08.800 a lot of license You can think of places like 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:13.320 Massachusetts and Connecticut and New York, and you know California 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:15.560 where there were a number of horrible shootings a couple 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:18.200 of weeks ago, But if you look at their average 0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:21.440 numbers over the years, they've enacted a strong suite of 0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:25.040 gun violence prevention laws and on average their gun violence 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:27.920 has gone down dramatically and is well below the national average. 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.440 So we don't have to accept this, and bringing in 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.880 our research at the Center is very clear more guns, 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.920 more concealed carry weapons, the more the more violent crime. 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.680 That's just a given. And so the idea that we're 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:43.200 now going to introduce that into a college environment, you know, 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:47.520 in with with UM people who are who are you know, 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.240 using alcohol which is a risk factor, and people who 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:52.640 are just starting their undult lives and might not have 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:56.480 enough emotional regulation. This is a horrible idea and it 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.160 goes against all of the evidence that we have. Well, 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.080 I also can stop thinking about this CDC report from 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:03.880 earlier this week. We haven't had a chance to talk 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:06.680 about it yet, Carol, but it really showed this increase 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:10.399 in mental health concerns among teenagers, showing nearly thirty of 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:14.520 teen girls have reported considering suicide. I wonder, Josh, if 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:17.760 you can talk about to what extent is the guns 0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:22.240 issue in our country impacting mental health for for kids 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:25.360 and just got about thirty seconds. So look, when when 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:27.600 you have a mental health problem and then you have 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:30.760 easy access to firems, that's when that's when these things 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.280 become lethal. And it's not surprising that we are seeing 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:37.880 a rise, especially in the black community of UM. We've 0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:41.400 seen a unpresident rise of FIM suicide among black youth 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.560 and that's actually I think there's more access to farms now, 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:47.840 and we have to really focus on this across the board. 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:51.520 But we're seeing some unpresident rises among young people and 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:55.320 farms violence, and that's something we need to be really addressing. Well. 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:57.040 So glad we did get some time for you. Like 0:17:57.080 --> 0:17:59.520 I said, I love, we love talking with you, but 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.040 we hope we wish the trend was going in a 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:05.720 different direction. Josh Horowitz over John Hopkins at Bloomberg School 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:07.960 of Public Health, co director of the Center for Gun 0:18:08.080 --> 0:18:12.359 Violence Solutions. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. 0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:15.080 Catch us live week days from two to five pm 0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:19.040 Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, The Bloomberg Business and You too. 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:22.399 You can also listen live to our flagship New York station, 0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:30.800 Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg e Love and Dirty amid 0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:33.679 all the talk about rolling recessions, soft landings and the 0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:36.840 new one no Landings. This week, our Business Week team 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:39.520 took the time to note the upcoming one year mark 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:43.320 one week from tomorrow since that Russian invasion of Ukraine, 0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:45.120 kind of hard to believe it's still going on. While 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:48.800 several stories in this special double issue on the destruction 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:52.200 in Eastern Europe, including the cover story and how it's 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:54.480 becoming clear that the cost to both sides will turn 0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:57.240 out to be intolerably high. For more, we turned to 0:18:57.240 --> 0:19:01.639 Bloomberg News automation editor and opinion columnist Leonid Burschitski, along 0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:04.560 with the editor of Bloomberg Business Week magazine Joel Webber. 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:11.520 In absolute numbers, Russia has actually lost more than Ukraine 0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:15.679 because the Russian economy was so much bigger to start 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:19.879 with before the war. So even though Russia is not 0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:25.119 economically devastated, it's not about to go bankrupt, it's not 0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:28.640 depending on external aid the way Ukraine is. But it's 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:31.639 lost an enormous amount of money. It's lost more than 0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:38.040 a hundred billion dollars in GDP terms um. And and 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:44.679 that is before we start factoring in the loss of life, 0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:49.320 the immigration, the you know, all of these factors that 0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:52.080 are also war related. Leon It and of course the 0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:54.840 war continues. You talk about loss, and you're right, you 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:59.280 talk about the impact on economic activity, you name it. 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:02.400 But the law us of life in terms of people 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:04.720 who have actually you know, died as a result of 0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:07.359 this war, but also people who are leaving the countries, 0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:10.000 whether it's Russia or Ukraine. You do think about the 0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:13.000 lasting impact of that that when we get fingers crossed 0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:18.240 on the other side of this, what it ultimately means. Yeah, Well, 0:20:18.280 --> 0:20:22.280 here in Berlin, ware I live. UM. Also as a 0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:26.639 Russian emigrant, basic way, who who left Russia on the 0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:31.440 war actually began into thousand and fourteen, Um, we see 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:36.600 a lot of huge influx of people from both Ukraine 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:42.440 and Russia. And a year's a year after the war began. Um, 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:45.439 some of these families have settled in and you know, 0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:49.160 the kids are in school. Uh, people have found jobs, 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:55.000 they've learned the beginnings of the language. UH. And a 0:20:55.080 --> 0:20:59.800 lot of these people, a lot of the Ukrainian refugees too, 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:05.400 are not going to go back. The German Migration Office 0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:11.320 recently held a poll that showed about of the Ukrainian 0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:14.960 refugees are not planning on going back to Ukraine after 0:21:15.000 --> 0:21:19.639 the war is over. The actual percentage is probably higher. 0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:27.679 So uh, even apart from the the actual killing and 0:21:28.119 --> 0:21:31.440 the you know, the actual war damage, the actual casualties, 0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:36.600 the loss of the brain drain, the loss of talent, 0:21:37.200 --> 0:21:40.920 the loss of active people, and it is active people 0:21:40.920 --> 0:21:45.920 who leave under such circumstances in Ukraine. Is overwhelmingly women, 0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:52.359 and they've taken their kids with them, so that there's 0:21:52.400 --> 0:21:58.439 going to be extended fallout even once the you know, 0:21:58.560 --> 0:22:06.840 the battlefield action is over. Uh uh, you know, the 0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:13.280 human losses for both economies will be substantial. Imagine a 0:22:13.359 --> 0:22:18.520 world where the battlefield we finally might have a version 0:22:18.520 --> 0:22:22.640 of the truce or something. Um, what would it look 0:22:22.720 --> 0:22:27.800 like on both sides when this conflict eventually does end, 0:22:27.960 --> 0:22:33.440 because even any outcome, these sanctions have been so successful, 0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:36.159 but you know, it does not seem like, you know, 0:22:36.440 --> 0:22:40.960 easing these sanctions um eventually will end in in any 0:22:41.000 --> 0:22:45.040 sort of um resolution where this is instant in the 0:22:45.119 --> 0:22:49.040 recovery is instantaneous, right, we're looking at years here. Yeah, yeah, 0:22:49.040 --> 0:22:54.199 we're definitely looking at the will. The worst parts of 0:22:54.200 --> 0:22:59.280 this is that it's almost impossible to imagine and ending 0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:03.640 to the military action at this point because there's really 0:23:03.680 --> 0:23:07.040 no common ground. There's no way that the sides can 0:23:07.200 --> 0:23:12.280 agree on anything until um, one of them is satisfied 0:23:12.320 --> 0:23:17.359 that it's one and you know, victory for both sides 0:23:17.400 --> 0:23:23.360 seems pretty remote at this point. But even just imagining 0:23:23.480 --> 0:23:28.120 something has happened and the war has ended, the sanctions 0:23:28.160 --> 0:23:32.160 against Russia will not be lifted a game, even even 0:23:32.160 --> 0:23:36.800 with Russia loses. They can only be lifted if the 0:23:36.960 --> 0:23:42.520 puts in regime falls uh and the successors are more 0:23:42.520 --> 0:23:47.080 pro Western and willing to uh, you know, to to 0:23:47.080 --> 0:23:54.679 to take pretty unimaginable steps um uh in terms of 0:23:54.720 --> 0:23:59.880 rejoining the Western world. So these the sanctions are going 0:24:00.040 --> 0:24:06.480 to be around for many years. The devastation in Ukraine 0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:10.439 requires hundreds of billions of dollars of investment just to 0:24:10.520 --> 0:24:15.840 rebuild what was destroyed. UM. It's not clear where that 0:24:15.920 --> 0:24:22.159 kind of money would come from. Um. From Russian reparations. Uh. 0:24:22.240 --> 0:24:25.320 It's not clear how much in terms of reparations Russia 0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:29.720 would actually be able to pay. UM. Whether it's possible 0:24:29.760 --> 0:24:36.320 to confiscate any of the frozen Russian international reserves to 0:24:36.359 --> 0:24:41.000 fund the rebuilding of Ukraine. UM. It's not clear how 0:24:42.000 --> 0:24:46.359 interested Western governments will be in providing more money once 0:24:46.359 --> 0:24:50.560 the war is over, especially the enormous amounts that are 0:24:50.600 --> 0:24:55.199 required because the entire cities have been wiped off the 0:24:55.240 --> 0:24:57.560 face of the earth. All right, That, of course is 0:24:57.560 --> 0:25:01.640 Bloomberg News Automation editor and opinion column mist Leon need Burschitski, 0:25:01.800 --> 0:25:04.280 along with our Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber, who 0:25:04.400 --> 0:25:06.800