Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg business Week Inside from the reporters and
Speaker 1: editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus
Speaker 1: global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim stinebec from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: So Russia, all right, folks. I have to say earlier today,
Speaker 1: when our producer Paul Brennan and our team Maddie and
Speaker 1: all of us were putting the show together, we realized
Speaker 1: that there really was in a large way a theme
Speaker 1: of geopolitical tensions. We talked a little bit about a
Speaker 1: Chinese invasion of Taiwan, what it would mean for just
Speaker 1: a possible scenario in terms of ships to the UK. Specifically,
Speaker 1: we had the President talk about objects in the sky.
Speaker 1: But getting ready to hopefully meet with President g a
Speaker 1: lot going on. We've seen China the US go back
Speaker 1: and forth with saying actions. So we wanted to check
Speaker 1: in um and get a view on this and we
Speaker 1: have a perfect guest to do that, and especially when
Speaker 1: it comes to concerns about you know, possible escalating military tensions.
Speaker 1: So let's head to Colorado Springs and that's where we
Speaker 1: find retired US Air Force Lieutenant General David dep Deptula
Speaker 1: excuse me, he's now advisory board member at Academy Securities
Speaker 1: and he with he's with us via zoom from Colorado Springs. Um, General,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us here at Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: There is a lot going on us China. How do
Speaker 1: you kind of gauge the tensions that are out there
Speaker 1: and where it could possibly go? Well, first, thanks very
Speaker 1: much for um having me on. UM. What I'd tell
Speaker 1: you is very uncertain period of time right now. UM,
Speaker 1: if you take a look of what's happened with respect
Speaker 1: to the Chinese spycraft that entered the United States and
Speaker 1: was eventually shot down, Uh, in the elopment of the
Speaker 1: US government's understanding of the Chinese military goals and some
Speaker 1: of the new details they're coming out, they really reveal
Speaker 1: some misreadings of the U S's reaction by Chinese officials,
Speaker 1: and that indicates just how difficult it is for the
Speaker 1: United States and China to discern each other's intentions. And
Speaker 1: quite frankly, the challenge there is that gap could lead
Speaker 1: to greater mistrust in our miscalculation. So we're still trying
Speaker 1: to figure out what's going on UM. You know, there's
Speaker 1: some people that believe that in all actuality, the balloon
Speaker 1: went off course. But then again, the Chinese officials and
Speaker 1: balloon operators appeared to make a series of bad decisions.
Speaker 1: So there's still a lot going on that the US
Speaker 1: government still doesn't understand, and we've got to figure it
Speaker 1: out before we move. But the other thing that's all
Speaker 1: points to, UM is we've got to have better communication
Speaker 1: at the senior most levels between our two countries. Well,
Speaker 1: I will say I think I thought the most notable
Speaker 1: thing President Biden's comments UM earlier were that he does
Speaker 1: plan to reach out to President g So it wasn't
Speaker 1: like that was was a stop. What in terms of
Speaker 1: that Chinese balloon? What is it that, as the President said,
Speaker 1: they're still kind of figuring stuff out, uh, And what
Speaker 1: it was all about? What development or what known information
Speaker 1: could come out that would make you a little concerned. Well,
Speaker 1: I'll be frank with you, of more concern than whatever
Speaker 1: the balloon might have collected. Um. It's the uncertainty, if
Speaker 1: you will, and the indecision that emanated from the Pentagon
Speaker 1: and the White House that was evidenced as the Chinese
Speaker 1: balloon entered the United States airspace. Um, it was pretty
Speaker 1: clear that the administration didn't have any answer for that
Speaker 1: kind of a problem. Uh. And we still don't know
Speaker 1: if the Secretary of Defense actually notified the President when
Speaker 1: the spycraft originally entered Alaskan airspace or not until it
Speaker 1: entered the continentally United States. Now last week, to their credit,
Speaker 1: at the Pentagon and the White House acted more rapidly
Speaker 1: um and clearly they were more prepared. Uh. And the
Speaker 1: President was notified in the time the matter. But the
Speaker 1: point that I would like to make with you or
Speaker 1: leave with you, is the issue was not necessarily whatever
Speaker 1: intelligence could have been extracted by the balloon, it's the
Speaker 1: policy decision not to have shot it down once it
Speaker 1: was in US airspace well, and also potentially the lack
Speaker 1: of information about what's already in our airspace. When President
Speaker 1: Biden was speaking, he mentioned three action items, and the
Speaker 1: first one was just to establish about our inventory of
Speaker 1: what's going on in our own aerospace. Does that concern
Speaker 1: you at all us kind of not having enough knowledge
Speaker 1: about our what's already up there? Or and do you
Speaker 1: buy a recalibration of the radars? An absolutely wonderful question.
Speaker 1: Let me offer if I may, and I know times
Speaker 1: of essence here, but sometimes these things are a bit complicated.
Speaker 1: But the North American Air Air Defense Command or nora AD,
Speaker 1: was originally designed to detect and then defend North America
Speaker 1: from a catastrophic attack from the Soviet Union, and then
Speaker 1: back after nine eleven, they had an additional role UH
Speaker 1: to intercept and identify and redirect any unknown aircraft or
Speaker 1: unidentified aircraft heading towards restricted airspace. So then nora AD
Speaker 1: radars are tuned to detect aircraft or missiles that meet
Speaker 1: that criteria, and balloons, at least until recently, generally don't
Speaker 1: fit that category. So in order to track both will
Speaker 1: require modernization of nora AD's cur radars as well as
Speaker 1: additional radars, and quite frankly, a reversal in the decline
Speaker 1: of the resources that have been allocated in nora AD. Look.
Speaker 1: NORAD gets its aircraft from the Air Force, but our
Speaker 1: air Force today is the oldest and the smallest it's
Speaker 1: ever been in its history. So just like the Air Force,
Speaker 1: nora AD has been underfunded and allowed to atrophy over
Speaker 1: the past thirty years. It's still employing cold war air technology.
Speaker 1: Just to give you in your audience an example, in
Speaker 1: nineteen sixty nora Ad had about two thousand aircraft under
Speaker 1: its command, and today they've got about thirty at any
Speaker 1: one time. So these intrusions ought to be a wake
Speaker 1: up call to rebuild our air and space defenses. So
Speaker 1: your perspective is that basically what this revealed is that
Speaker 1: our air and space defenses have some major holes. No
Speaker 1: pun intended, but that's the bottom line, at least from
Speaker 1: your perspective. Absolutely, so, okay, So having said that, that's
Speaker 1: one issue, and then of course there is though the
Speaker 1: way it kind of played out and just was a
Speaker 1: reminder of kind of the tensions that already existed between
Speaker 1: the United States and China. How do you see that
Speaker 1: relationship that has been a complicated one from the get go.
Speaker 1: How do you see it where businesses still want that exposure.
Speaker 1: We know that, and yet we know it's a very
Speaker 1: tricky one. Well, I think you know, to the President's credit,
Speaker 1: he made the point that, look, we want to compete
Speaker 1: with China, we don't want to engage in a conflict
Speaker 1: with China. And I think what you'll see is a
Speaker 1: redoubling of efforts out of the State Department, the Department
Speaker 1: of Defense in the White House to assure that there
Speaker 1: is greater connectivity at the senior most levels to be
Speaker 1: able to rapidly discuss and put some of these issues
Speaker 1: that may result in misinterpretation or miscommunication to BED and
Speaker 1: and so. While there lots of different avenues to explore
Speaker 1: with respect to what happened here, UM, I think this
Speaker 1: has been a wake up call for both the leadership
Speaker 1: of the United States as well as China, UM that
Speaker 1: we we can't allow misunderstandings to get out of hand,
Speaker 1: if in fact it might be a little bit. But
Speaker 1: we've been lists the interesting point that he's been making, Carol,
Speaker 1: We've been talking to retired US Air Force Lieutenant General
Speaker 1: David Deptula. He is on the advisory board UH, and
Speaker 1: he is an advisory board member over at Academy Securities,
Speaker 1: and he's been talking with us from Colorado Springs. But
Speaker 1: it's interesting, um, obviously a military perspective, but talking about
Speaker 1: the potential, at least in his view, that there wasn't
Speaker 1: the correct spending or upgrading, if you will, in terms
Speaker 1: of the protections UH and the defense systems that are
Speaker 1: needing to protect our our space basically in our aerospace,
Speaker 1: which is really interesting and in some ways alarming given
Speaker 1: some of the geopolitical tensions that we're facing globally right now.
Speaker 1: I was really curious to get his thoughts on a
Speaker 1: look ahead because we know that B. Lincoln potentially meeting
Speaker 1: with Wangi and Munich later this week. I wonder what
Speaker 1: someone like him, UM General Lieutenant General David Deptula would
Speaker 1: be looking for out of that meeting. What would a
Speaker 1: clue be to indicate where U S. China relations are heading?
Speaker 1: General Deptula, I know we've gotten our connection back. We've
Speaker 1: got about a minute or so left here. So there
Speaker 1: are said to be meetings UM with the Secretary of
Speaker 1: the United States. UM State Secretary should say, Uh, Anthony
Speaker 1: Blincoln coming up between he and Chinese officials. What is
Speaker 1: it that you kind of keep on your radar when
Speaker 1: it comes to those kinds of meetings. Well, I apologize
Speaker 1: that the connection dropped off there, But UM, what I
Speaker 1: was about to say, or was in the midst of staying,
Speaker 1: is that if anything good comes out of this particular incident,
Speaker 1: it's the fact that at senior levels at the UM
Speaker 1: Secretary of State level secretary to fence level H in
Speaker 1: discussions with their counterparts in China. UM, they've got to
Speaker 1: develop more rapid means of being able to communicate UH,
Speaker 1: to dampen down UH and explain different perspectives when these
Speaker 1: kinds of situations arise. UM. Furthermore, I think that President
Speaker 1: was spot on when he articulated UH the message to
Speaker 1: the Chinese that they're gonna need to stop these kinds
Speaker 1: of intrusions UM with respect to blatant UH disregard for
Speaker 1: US airspace, whether it be over Alaska, the continental United States, Guam,
Speaker 1: or Hawaii. So those are a couple of issues that
Speaker 1: I think UH could move US towards an era where
Speaker 1: there's greater communication and understanding, not less. All right, we're
Speaker 1: gonna leave it on that and hopefully we can catch
Speaker 1: up with you real soon. David Toolah, he is of
Speaker 1: course UH US Air Force Lutunant general retired. He's an
Speaker 1: advisory board member over at cat Amy Security Securities. I
Speaker 1: am tongue twisted on this Thursday, joining s VA Zoom
Speaker 1: from Colorado Springs. But I do feel like anything US
Speaker 1: China really pivotal and obviously one of our main geopolitical
Speaker 1: issues going forward. Absolutely, it's it's critical to watch. All right.
Speaker 1: You are listening in watching Bloomberg Business Week. This is
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Speaker 1: Catch Just Live weekdays from two to five pm Easter
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa, Play Bloomberg, E Loove and Dirty. Alright, folks,
Speaker 1: another day, another concern when it comes to a shooting
Speaker 1: here in the United States. Uh, this time yesterday at
Speaker 1: a mall in l Passa that killed one person injured
Speaker 1: three others. It comes on the heels of the Monday
Speaker 1: night shooting and Michigan State University that killed three students
Speaker 1: and critically wounded five others. There are truly no words
Speaker 1: at this point about this national crisis in the US.
Speaker 1: So let's get to it with someone who has been
Speaker 1: studying this. Joshua Horritz is co director of the Center
Speaker 1: for Gun Violence Solutions at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School
Speaker 1: of Public Health. As you know, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg philanthropies. Mike also co
Speaker 1: founder and supporter of every Town for Guns Safety. Josh
Speaker 1: on the phone from Baltimore. Josh, Um, good to have
Speaker 1: you here. I wish we kind of didn't have to
Speaker 1: have you here because it means we've had more shootings. Um,
Speaker 1: they have become so much the norm. How do you
Speaker 1: look at it and how do we change the narrative?
Speaker 1: How do we change the reality? Well, first of all,
Speaker 1: thanks for having me. I'm very appreciative of that. And um,
Speaker 1: you know, in the wake of the toe to terrible tragedies,
Speaker 1: I say this almost every time on the radio, but
Speaker 1: I'm just so sorry to the families and the survivors
Speaker 1: who have had to go through yet another, um terrible incident. So,
Speaker 1: you know, I think there's a couple of things for
Speaker 1: the listeners to keep in mind. Number One, this is
Speaker 1: not inevitable. This is not always been what this country
Speaker 1: is about. But in the last several years, we've seen
Speaker 1: an incredible increase in people killed by guns, which includes
Speaker 1: homicide and suicides and police violence as well. But that's
Speaker 1: only almost forty nine people were killed. That's up eight
Speaker 1: percent from UH and GO. Homicides in general have increased
Speaker 1: about between two thousand nineteen and two one, and it
Speaker 1: seems like we have a mass shooting. If it seems
Speaker 1: like we have a mass shooting every day in America,
Speaker 1: it's because we actually have to UM. Already, in this year,
Speaker 1: there's been seventy two mass shootings UM, and there's lots
Speaker 1: we can do about it. So I'm happy to jump
Speaker 1: in if that's what you want me to keep going
Speaker 1: on right now. Yeah, I mean solutions, Yeah, help us
Speaker 1: have some hope here. So I think number one, you know,
Speaker 1: we've seen a proliferation of assault weapons and high capacity magazines,
Speaker 1: and that's you know, these shooters often use this. Not
Speaker 1: in the not in the ms U shooting, but just
Speaker 1: think about all the other shootings, you know from UM,
Speaker 1: from the Marjorie Storm and Douglas and some of the shootings,
Speaker 1: the last shooting in El Paso, right in the shooting
Speaker 1: the Tree of Life Synagogue, all these things that are
Speaker 1: fueled by hate UM. Assault weapons are often the weapons
Speaker 1: of choice, and certainly high capacity guns with high capacity
Speaker 1: magazines and those used to be banned, uh, you know
Speaker 1: for between two thousand five and that made a difference
Speaker 1: and from a policy perspective, but a moral perspective as well.
Speaker 1: We should not have weapons of war running around our
Speaker 1: streets for anybody over eighteen who sometimes but even without
Speaker 1: a background check, can purchase these weapons. So that's something
Speaker 1: that we really need to focus on. And there's some
Speaker 1: good policy levers that we have as well. UM we
Speaker 1: have laws that we know work, like licensing the purchase
Speaker 1: of firearms. We've seen dramatic results in states that have
Speaker 1: enacted purchasing laws and then then the worse results that
Speaker 1: for instance, Missouri government of their their permanent law, we
Speaker 1: saw a dramatic increase in homicide and suicides. So we
Speaker 1: know that there are laws out there that work. Other
Speaker 1: things that we want to see are our better firearm
Speaker 1: domestic firearm violence, fire and removal laws. We know that
Speaker 1: domestic violence is often a threat in some of these
Speaker 1: mass shoutings, so there's a link between domestic violence and
Speaker 1: mass shootings, and we know we need to do a
Speaker 1: better job removing firearms from people who are under protective
Speaker 1: order or have a domestic violence conviction. Can I can
Speaker 1: I just jump in for a second, and if you
Speaker 1: saw yesterday West Virginia lawmakers UM voting to advance a
Speaker 1: bill that would allow people with concealed carry permits to
Speaker 1: bring firearms unto state college and university campuses. That's despite
Speaker 1: overwhelming opposition from frustrated students who came to the capital
Speaker 1: there to testify against it. I mean, I feel like
Speaker 1: the trend is going in the other direction unfortunately. So
Speaker 1: it depends what state you're in. There are certainly states
Speaker 1: like West Virginia, and you can think about, you know,
Speaker 1: the southern states like Alabama and Missouri and Mississippi and
Speaker 1: Missouri where the with a with the trend is going
Speaker 1: the wrong way. There are other states that have made
Speaker 1: a big past a lot of great laws and saved
Speaker 1: a lot of license You can think of places like
Speaker 1: Massachusetts and Connecticut and New York, and you know California
Speaker 1: where there were a number of horrible shootings a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, But if you look at their average
Speaker 1: numbers over the years, they've enacted a strong suite of
Speaker 1: gun violence prevention laws and on average their gun violence
Speaker 1: has gone down dramatically and is well below the national average.
Speaker 1: So we don't have to accept this, and bringing in
Speaker 1: our research at the Center is very clear more guns,
Speaker 1: more concealed carry weapons, the more the more violent crime.
Speaker 1: That's just a given. And so the idea that we're
Speaker 1: now going to introduce that into a college environment, you know,
Speaker 1: in with with UM people who are who are you know,
Speaker 1: using alcohol which is a risk factor, and people who
Speaker 1: are just starting their undult lives and might not have
Speaker 1: enough emotional regulation. This is a horrible idea and it
Speaker 1: goes against all of the evidence that we have. Well,
Speaker 1: I also can stop thinking about this CDC report from
Speaker 1: earlier this week. We haven't had a chance to talk
Speaker 1: about it yet, Carol, but it really showed this increase
Speaker 1: in mental health concerns among teenagers, showing nearly thirty of
Speaker 1: teen girls have reported considering suicide. I wonder, Josh, if
Speaker 1: you can talk about to what extent is the guns
Speaker 1: issue in our country impacting mental health for for kids
Speaker 1: and just got about thirty seconds. So look, when when
Speaker 1: you have a mental health problem and then you have
Speaker 1: easy access to firems, that's when that's when these things
Speaker 1: become lethal. And it's not surprising that we are seeing
Speaker 1: a rise, especially in the black community of UM. We've
Speaker 1: seen a unpresident rise of FIM suicide among black youth
Speaker 1: and that's actually I think there's more access to farms now,
Speaker 1: and we have to really focus on this across the board.
Speaker 1: But we're seeing some unpresident rises among young people and
Speaker 1: farms violence, and that's something we need to be really addressing. Well.
Speaker 1: So glad we did get some time for you. Like
Speaker 1: I said, I love, we love talking with you, but
Speaker 1: we hope we wish the trend was going in a
Speaker 1: different direction. Josh Horowitz over John Hopkins at Bloomberg School
Speaker 1: of Public Health, co director of the Center for Gun
Speaker 1: Violence Solutions. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast.
Speaker 1: Catch us live week days from two to five pm
Speaker 1: Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, The Bloomberg Business and You too.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live to our flagship New York station,
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg e Love and Dirty amid
Speaker 1: all the talk about rolling recessions, soft landings and the
Speaker 1: new one no Landings. This week, our Business Week team
Speaker 1: took the time to note the upcoming one year mark
Speaker 1: one week from tomorrow since that Russian invasion of Ukraine,
Speaker 1: kind of hard to believe it's still going on. While
Speaker 1: several stories in this special double issue on the destruction
Speaker 1: in Eastern Europe, including the cover story and how it's
Speaker 1: becoming clear that the cost to both sides will turn
Speaker 1: out to be intolerably high. For more, we turned to
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News automation editor and opinion columnist Leonid Burschitski, along
Speaker 1: with the editor of Bloomberg Business Week magazine Joel Webber.
Speaker 1: In absolute numbers, Russia has actually lost more than Ukraine
Speaker 1: because the Russian economy was so much bigger to start
Speaker 1: with before the war. So even though Russia is not
Speaker 1: economically devastated, it's not about to go bankrupt, it's not
Speaker 1: depending on external aid the way Ukraine is. But it's
Speaker 1: lost an enormous amount of money. It's lost more than
Speaker 1: a hundred billion dollars in GDP terms um. And and
Speaker 1: that is before we start factoring in the loss of life,
Speaker 1: the immigration, the you know, all of these factors that
Speaker 1: are also war related. Leon It and of course the
Speaker 1: war continues. You talk about loss, and you're right, you
Speaker 1: talk about the impact on economic activity, you name it.
Speaker 1: But the law us of life in terms of people
Speaker 1: who have actually you know, died as a result of
Speaker 1: this war, but also people who are leaving the countries,
Speaker 1: whether it's Russia or Ukraine. You do think about the
Speaker 1: lasting impact of that that when we get fingers crossed
Speaker 1: on the other side of this, what it ultimately means. Yeah, Well,
Speaker 1: here in Berlin, ware I live. UM. Also as a
Speaker 1: Russian emigrant, basic way, who who left Russia on the
Speaker 1: war actually began into thousand and fourteen, Um, we see
Speaker 1: a lot of huge influx of people from both Ukraine
Speaker 1: and Russia. And a year's a year after the war began. Um,
Speaker 1: some of these families have settled in and you know,
Speaker 1: the kids are in school. Uh, people have found jobs,
Speaker 1: they've learned the beginnings of the language. UH. And a
Speaker 1: lot of these people, a lot of the Ukrainian refugees too,
Speaker 1: are not going to go back. The German Migration Office
Speaker 1: recently held a poll that showed about of the Ukrainian
Speaker 1: refugees are not planning on going back to Ukraine after
Speaker 1: the war is over. The actual percentage is probably higher.
Speaker 1: So uh, even apart from the the actual killing and
Speaker 1: the you know, the actual war damage, the actual casualties,
Speaker 1: the loss of the brain drain, the loss of talent,
Speaker 1: the loss of active people, and it is active people
Speaker 1: who leave under such circumstances in Ukraine. Is overwhelmingly women,
Speaker 1: and they've taken their kids with them, so that there's
Speaker 1: going to be extended fallout even once the you know,
Speaker 1: the battlefield action is over. Uh uh, you know, the
Speaker 1: human losses for both economies will be substantial. Imagine a
Speaker 1: world where the battlefield we finally might have a version
Speaker 1: of the truce or something. Um, what would it look
Speaker 1: like on both sides when this conflict eventually does end,
Speaker 1: because even any outcome, these sanctions have been so successful,
Speaker 1: but you know, it does not seem like, you know,
Speaker 1: easing these sanctions um eventually will end in in any
Speaker 1: sort of um resolution where this is instant in the
Speaker 1: recovery is instantaneous, right, we're looking at years here. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: we're definitely looking at the will. The worst parts of
Speaker 1: this is that it's almost impossible to imagine and ending
Speaker 1: to the military action at this point because there's really
Speaker 1: no common ground. There's no way that the sides can
Speaker 1: agree on anything until um, one of them is satisfied
Speaker 1: that it's one and you know, victory for both sides
Speaker 1: seems pretty remote at this point. But even just imagining
Speaker 1: something has happened and the war has ended, the sanctions
Speaker 1: against Russia will not be lifted a game, even even
Speaker 1: with Russia loses. They can only be lifted if the
Speaker 1: puts in regime falls uh and the successors are more
Speaker 1: pro Western and willing to uh, you know, to to
Speaker 1: to take pretty unimaginable steps um uh in terms of
Speaker 1: rejoining the Western world. So these the sanctions are going
Speaker 1: to be around for many years. The devastation in Ukraine
Speaker 1: requires hundreds of billions of dollars of investment just to
Speaker 1: rebuild what was destroyed. UM. It's not clear where that
Speaker 1: kind of money would come from. Um. From Russian reparations. Uh.
Speaker 1: It's not clear how much in terms of reparations Russia
Speaker 1: would actually be able to pay. UM. Whether it's possible
Speaker 1: to confiscate any of the frozen Russian international reserves to
Speaker 1: fund the rebuilding of Ukraine. UM. It's not clear how
Speaker 1: interested Western governments will be in providing more money once
Speaker 1: the war is over, especially the enormous amounts that are
Speaker 1: required because the entire cities have been wiped off the
Speaker 1: face of the earth. All right, That, of course is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Automation editor and opinion column mist Leon need Burschitski,
Speaker 1: along with our Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber, who
Speaker 1: joins us in studio right now. I'm so glad we
Speaker 1: were able to catch up with him. Yeah. UM, and
Speaker 1: obviously there's gonna be a lot more written about the
Speaker 1: one year mark between from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. UM.
Speaker 1: We felt like, we, you know, absolutely needed to talk
Speaker 1: about this because of the devastating economic implications on on
Speaker 1: both sides of the border. UM. And you know, another
Speaker 1: one that really caught my eye, UM was from our
Speaker 1: colleague Natalia DRSDIAC And when she she happened to be
Speaker 1: in New York and like kind of whispered this one
Speaker 1: to me, and I was like, wait, what which is Um,
Speaker 1: there's a shortage of Ammu Emma around the world And UM,
Speaker 1: that is just one of those fascinating stories that UM.
Speaker 1: I asked her to kind of like turn her reporting too.
Speaker 1: And there's more to do there too. I gotta say,
Speaker 1: there's a great photo essay and there's one photo in
Speaker 1: particular of two young girls. I'm not going to tell
Speaker 1: you more about it. You've got to go to the
Speaker 1: website or check out the magazine. Jill Weber, thank you
Speaker 1: so much. This is the cover story of the special
Speaker 1: double issue of Bloomberg Business Week. It is out now.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week podcast. Catch us live weekdays from two to five
Speaker 1: pm Easter on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app band
Speaker 1: You too. You can also listen live to our flagship
Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa, play Bloomberg, e Loove
Speaker 1: and Dirty Mac Journal. But you let me drive? No, no, no,
Speaker 1: he's home, honey, Please, I'll do good Bride Rebels. Let me.
Speaker 1: I don't want to drive, it's good question. Drive. This
Speaker 1: is good. Drive to the clothes music, well, dri jog
Speaker 1: down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody, we've got just
Speaker 1: about twelve minutes left, a little bit under more like
Speaker 1: eleven mixx left in today's session. A lot going on
Speaker 1: watching the trade here. Just a quick update for you,
Speaker 1: because stock is pretty much at their loads of the session.
Speaker 1: What does that mean? The S and P is down
Speaker 1: one point two percent the Dow Jones industrial average. We're
Speaker 1: looking at a decline of one percent in NASDAC taking
Speaker 1: the biggest hit on a percentage basis down about one
Speaker 1: and a half percent. Quick check on the Treasury trade
Speaker 1: because we've seen yield certainly popping up on some of
Speaker 1: that hot economic news UH tenure note with the yeld
Speaker 1: of three eight six UH and it is just off
Speaker 1: its highs of the day's two year note most sensitive
Speaker 1: to FED policy, with the yield of four point sixty
Speaker 1: four off its highs of the days. So let's get
Speaker 1: to it. Our market guest, Ken van Lewin, CEO and
Speaker 1: founder of the wealth management firm Van Lewin and Company,
Speaker 1: joining us via zoom from Princeton, New Jersey. Um, Ken,
Speaker 1: good to have you back with us. How are you well,
Speaker 1: Thank you, thanks for having me. Nice to be here. Well,
Speaker 1: a lot going on this week, Maddie and I try
Speaker 1: to keep on top of it, a lot of economic
Speaker 1: news and a lot of FED speak. Give us your
Speaker 1: macro take on this environment and what it means for
Speaker 1: investment plays right now. Well, it's really interesting, Carol, because
Speaker 1: what we're seeing, of course is that, of course today's
Speaker 1: comment about p p I indicates we think that the
Speaker 1: economy is stronger than what was anticipated. You know, we've
Speaker 1: gotten some pretty um strong economic numbers the last two weeks,
Speaker 1: especially Tuesday's number and employment number, So we think the
Speaker 1: Fed um and that's what's kind of pushing the market
Speaker 1: down today, right. Uh. Bullard came out and said that
Speaker 1: basically he thinks in March that we're going to have
Speaker 1: to raise again by another half a point rather than
Speaker 1: these quarter point hikes that we just went through. So again, Um,
Speaker 1: the FED has its mandate to control inflation, and it
Speaker 1: looks like they're going to be doing that. So that's
Speaker 1: what's pushing rates up, of course, in the markets down today. Ken,
Speaker 1: I want to ask you a totally wild and random
Speaker 1: question here. I know that you just wrote a little
Speaker 1: piece about how meeting with prospective clients can be like
Speaker 1: a blind date. Can you give me some of your advice?
Speaker 1: What would you tell clients to ask you if they
Speaker 1: were on a blind date with you? Well, first of all,
Speaker 1: I want them to ask me about my experience, right like,
Speaker 1: what have you done? Um? How long have you been
Speaker 1: doing this? Of course I have some gray hair, so
Speaker 1: they can tell I've been doing this a while. Um,
Speaker 1: So I'd ask him about that. I'd ask him about that.
Speaker 1: I'd ask me have they ever you know, I'd want
Speaker 1: to to explain their situation a little bit and say,
Speaker 1: have you ever worked with individuals like ourselves myself, and
Speaker 1: can you give me some solutions to solve that? And
Speaker 1: then I'd want to say, you know, how are you qualified?
Speaker 1: I mean, what kind of designations do you have? What
Speaker 1: makes you so special? Why are you? Um good at
Speaker 1: what you do? You know? I would also want to
Speaker 1: ask how do I get paid? I mean, which is
Speaker 1: the ultimate question? Sure? So, yeah, but it's a great
Speaker 1: thing going on these dates. Actually it's alway, it's one
Speaker 1: of the best parts of my business that I really enjoyed. Well,
Speaker 1: it's important, especially because retail investors obviously we know by
Speaker 1: now they're here to stay. What is your single biggest
Speaker 1: piece of advice for retail investors today, given the macroeconomic
Speaker 1: headwinds we're facing, what would you tell a retail investor
Speaker 1: to watch out for. Well, a couple of things, Um,
Speaker 1: to watch out for is that I worry about, you know,
Speaker 1: chasing a trend. Okay, Like I think one of the
Speaker 1: things is that, of course, earlier in the week we
Speaker 1: all about AI, everybody was piling into Microsoft and shunning Google. Um.
Speaker 1: While I think that Microsoft is a great company, did
Speaker 1: it deserve the price increases that it got earlier in
Speaker 1: the week. Um, I'm not sure of that, right? Why
Speaker 1: is that? Can I stick with you on that for
Speaker 1: a second. Why why is that with Microsoft? Well, what's
Speaker 1: happening there a little bit. I think what you're just
Speaker 1: saying is that's because that's the next revolution, and I
Speaker 1: think investors still want the next best thing. They're still
Speaker 1: chasing that illusion. Well it's not an illusion, but they're
Speaker 1: still chasing, you know, a big winner because you know,
Speaker 1: we had big winners in last year, not so much
Speaker 1: we and but people still want that big growth stock
Speaker 1: that's going to go up five ten times. So is Microsoft,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, is Microsoft something you would commit some new
Speaker 1: money to because of the AI play and the chat
Speaker 1: GPT play. Um, we would actually we own it currently
Speaker 1: so we would continue to hold it, but we wouldn't
Speaker 1: chase it right now because I think there was a
Speaker 1: news report actually today that it was creating some kind
Speaker 1: of unseemly conversations when people would put requests into into being.
Speaker 1: So you know, that's kind of it still has to
Speaker 1: be perfected. I think it's a long way from being there,
Speaker 1: all right, Intel, when we let's say, with the tech
Speaker 1: space for you, well, we know we've got a Matt
Speaker 1: reporting in the semi space after the closing bell. What
Speaker 1: is it about Intel specifically, which feels like gets been
Speaker 1: struggling for some time to kind of make some headway
Speaker 1: and kind of get itself on a new trajectory. See.
Speaker 1: One of the things that I think an overall theme
Speaker 1: of what we like is strong dividend payers. Intel with
Speaker 1: a dividend yield over five percent. And you know, clearly
Speaker 1: they've struggled lately. UM, they've lost actually UM ground positioning
Speaker 1: to a m D, but there's still a tremendous brand
Speaker 1: UM and you know, long term in our belief is
Speaker 1: that brands win out UM. That's why we like that Intel.
Speaker 1: You know, they've got a lot of work to do UM.
Speaker 1: They're building these new factories in Ohio. But that's the
Speaker 1: dividend is really what goes. Let me follow on that
Speaker 1: can because UM. Our story in the Bloomberg by ur
Speaker 1: Ian King and Ryan Blastelica talks about how Intel is
Speaker 1: among those that the street seems to be saying is
Speaker 1: prime for a dividend cut because I think at the
Speaker 1: current rate Morgan has put out there and some other analysts,
Speaker 1: at the current right, Intel's dividend projected to cost within
Speaker 1: six billion dollars this year, and that you know, the
Speaker 1: company has got to focus on heavy spending needed to
Speaker 1: re kind of regain its manufacturing leadership, and that as
Speaker 1: a result, they'll have to cut shareholder payouts. So does
Speaker 1: that still make it interesting for you? It still makes
Speaker 1: it interesting because what we've seen in the past, right,
Speaker 1: because I think it's the overall health of the company
Speaker 1: for Intel. Um. Yes, the dividend right now at this
Speaker 1: rate could potentially be cut, but I'd still a buyer here,
Speaker 1: and it's at its low valuation. Remember it's only selling
Speaker 1: at ten times, which is a historically low valuation for Intel,
Speaker 1: to be sure. And that's kind of your view on
Speaker 1: selective tech names. I want to go over to the
Speaker 1: consumer discretionary side because that's the fun side for my
Speaker 1: persuasive Yes, talk to me about let's go to Alter
Speaker 1: Beauty because they've got a big competitor with Sephora and
Speaker 1: obviously a lot of other big players in the beauty space.
Speaker 1: Why do you like Alter? Well, first of all, you know,
Speaker 1: we like Alta because it's a tremendously well managed um
Speaker 1: store chain. Um, they've got many great things. Now. I
Speaker 1: think they're introducing where you can even get your hairs done,
Speaker 1: your nails done, things that that nature. They're in the
Speaker 1: different stores. UM Also, I think their long term goals
Speaker 1: of expanding in China is something that's very, very very
Speaker 1: appealing to us. And frankly, the CEO, we think is
Speaker 1: one of the best retailing CEOs UM in the country
Speaker 1: right now. Can I ask why why? Just look at
Speaker 1: the what the growth that she has delivered UM to
Speaker 1: her shareholders. So I think that in a tough environment
Speaker 1: right when we saw basically she came through covid UM,
Speaker 1: she performed well last year and is continuing to show
Speaker 1: us this year what they can do. UM just got
Speaker 1: about thirty seconds left here. In terms of the semi space,
Speaker 1: you do since a mats reporting just quickly thirty seconds
Speaker 1: on semi you like why that name on because that's
Speaker 1: the semis in terms of the the digital experience and
Speaker 1: the ability to UM, it's the semiconductor chip that basically
Speaker 1: can follow you around basically and with all that you
Speaker 1: know basically in cameras and all those different things. Right now,
Speaker 1: that semiconductor space is one of the few areas that's
Speaker 1: growing round now and ON is one of the leaders
Speaker 1: and they're a US based company, so and they manufacture
Speaker 1: here in the US. UM so that's why we like
Speaker 1: that one. This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available
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