WEBVTT - COVID-19 Numbers Have Come Down, Paz Says 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 and of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.959 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.959 hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.079 Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:28.280 can also listen to our radio show at two pm 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.160 Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:35.519 YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. We're going to talk 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:39.479 about the convention that the Democratic National Convention happened this 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:42.360 week and look ahead to next week's Republican National Convention. 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:44.960 But you know, clearly, if you watch it all, you 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:48.680 saw that we are still in the midst of a 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:53.000 massive medical and healthcare crisis in this country. It is 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:57.120 worth remembering, even amid more positive economic news and certainly 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:59.880 a market that's very enthusiastic. So let's check in on 0:00:59.920 --> 0:01:02.680 the virus. Get the latest, especially from outside our little 0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:05.360 bubble here in the Tri state area. Doctor Harold Pauses 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:07.640 with us, the CEO of Wexterner Medical Center, Chancellor of 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:11.280 Health Affairs at Ohio State University. He joins us from 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:15.000 the Buckeye State. So Dr Pause, really nice to have 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:19.000 you back with us, so help us understand where we are. 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:23.080 What's it like on the ground where you are. Thank 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:25.840 you very much, Jason, I'm delighted to be back. So 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:31.000 you know, in Ohio we're seeing a leveling off in 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:34.240 the in the Columbus area of the number of patients 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:38.200 that are being hospitalized. We were at our peak in 0:01:38.200 --> 0:01:42.480 in mid April, and we've seen those numbers uh slowly 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:47.280 come down. We still have COVID positive patients in the hospital, 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:50.840 and we're certainly seeing them in the clinical sites. But 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:54.960 the good news is we're nowhere near our peak, and 0:01:55.320 --> 0:02:00.240 that's important. And is it also about not only about 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:04.080 numbers coming down? Certainly in states like yours and other places, 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:07.360 we've certainly seen it come down dramatically. Dr paulse In 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:10.080 in New York, But is it also about compared to 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:13.000 where we were, maybe even just a month ago, we 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:15.880 are we've started to really figure out ways to treat 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:19.359 patients who come down with coronavirus so that they may 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:23.280 get sick, but we can keep them alive. Yeah, and 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:27.080 and that's another important point. Um. Among the patients that 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:31.480 are hospitalized, we're seeing fewer patients in the intensive care 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:35.600 unit setting on ventilators and that's really important. And there 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:38.600 are a number of things that have been have been 0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:41.920 used over the past several months that we've learned a 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:46.400 lot around dessevere, which is the anti viral drug that 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:50.840 we can give intravenously. UM has been added. We're using 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:55.960 a steroid drug called dex and method zone prone posturing 0:02:56.800 --> 0:02:59.799 so that patients are put on their abdomens as a 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:03.840 on their backs and given high flow oxygen so they 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:07.880 don't have to go on mechanical ventilation. And UM. There 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:11.160 are there have been efforts to use convalescent plasma as well, 0:03:11.200 --> 0:03:15.520 and that I know there continues to be research looking 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:19.399 at how effective that is. But all these different approaches 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:22.240 as they come together, mean that we're coming up with 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:25.720 more and more effective ways to help patients that become 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:28.840 critically ill with the virus. And and of course all 0:03:28.880 --> 0:03:31.639 the things that we're doing on the ground to prevent 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:35.840 the spread and that's incredibly important, getting everybody to wear 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:40.520 a mask two socially distant and to wash their hands 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:44.600 as as frequently as they can, not touching their eyes, ears, nose, 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:48.040 or mouth, because you want to stop the spread. That's 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.720 the first step is blocking the spread, which gets the 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:54.640 overall numbers down. So Dr Paus talked to us about 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:57.040 rapid testing because I feel like that is something that's 0:03:57.040 --> 0:03:58.960 really comes to the four this week. There's a lot 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:01.320 of I think in this he has an optimism around 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:04.720 that that even came up last night in former Vice 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:08.720 President Joe Biden's speech around what he would do, Uh 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:13.280 if he were elected? Where are we how effective? What 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:16.200 should we be thinking about when it comes to rapid testing. Yeah, 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:19.680 so there's a lot of progress being made and testing 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:23.280 and we're looking for the results to show how effective 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:26.279 these new forms of testing are. Let me just give 0:04:26.279 --> 0:04:28.880 you a little bit of background on this. So what 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:32.599 we were using up until now primarily is what's called 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:37.400 viral RNA detection. So the genetic code and a virus 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:39.960 is different than in people and people in the DNA. 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:43.839 In this particular virus, it's RNA, And what we're looking 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:48.680 for is the signature RNA for this virus that causes 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:52.360 COVID nineteen and you do that on the machine called 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:57.240 a PCR machine Plumerase chain reaction machine, that's the gold standard. 0:04:57.720 --> 0:05:00.280 We set that up at the Ohio State Western Artical 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:03.880 Center ten machines and we could do up to tests 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:07.320 the day, but it takes time. It takes it takes 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.520 more than than fifteen minutes. But then again it is 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:14.960 highly sensitive for the virus and highly specific. We estimate 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:19.920 that our test at Ohio State wester has over sensitivity 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:23.800 rate to find the virus. So it's great, but you 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:27.599 know it results on average take forty eight hours or 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:29.760 so to get back to the patient, and we've all 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:33.520 heard these stories of patients going into some places and 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:37.559 it takes seven days, right, So that's a challenge. So newer, 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:41.200 newer types of testing UM depend on something else, which 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:45.200 is called viral anergen detection. So instead of looking for 0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:50.279 the RNA that that the virus codes for, it's looking 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:53.159 for an anergen on the surface of the virus. And 0:05:53.560 --> 0:05:56.880 this these tests can yield results within thirty minutes and 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:01.000 without specialized instruments. This clearly, this is this is a 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:05.840 public health issue, and it's really a matter of uh, 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:08.080 doing all the things that we need to do with 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:11.520 any epidemic or pandemic from a public health and a 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:16.400 a medical standpoint, And it's really about prevention. It's about diagnosis, 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:18.920 as we were just talking about briefly a few minutes ago, 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:22.200 and it's about effective treatments and part of that is 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:27.560 having um the vaccines available to prevent the spread of 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:30.680 this virus and to make sure that we can develop 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:34.440 her immunity so that there m there is not going 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:40.040 to be additional waves of this COVID nineteen virus spreading 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:43.160 through our communities. So but can I can I just 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:45.320 follow because I do feel like the virus, though, as 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:48.200 you know, has become rather political. We certainly saw it 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:50.719 early on in terms of getting access to equipment for 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:55.000 there being you know, um uh a message for the 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:57.839 entire country and it's safe to say you know this 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:01.240 better than we do that it definitely has, you know, 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:02.960 made it more difficult for us to get ahead of 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:07.599 the virus because we were all kind of doing things differently. Yeah, 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:10.840 So I can tell you that in Ohio, the governor 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:15.960 of Ohio, Governor Dwine, has taken a very strong leadership 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:20.440 role in all aspects of dealing with this pandemic, everything 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:23.760 from being very clear about the need to wear a mask, 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:28.560 about the programs around social distancing and UH ensuring that 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:30.800 we can go out and do the things that we 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:33.360 need to do in terms of testing and and then 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.760 making sure we had things like reagents to run these 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:40.800 PCR machines I mentioned before, all the way to coordinating 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.760 among the hospitals to deal with patients should there be 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:49.960 a surge and these hospital facilities get stretched to their limitations. 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:54.240 So it is exceptionally about about having appropriate leadership in 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:57.680 place and taking that view at the very top all 0:07:57.720 --> 0:07:59.760 the way through to how we deliver care in our 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:03.560 little communities. So dr pause before we let you go 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:08.560 talk to us about reopening Ohio State specifically, but also 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:12.560 the advice that you're giving even lower down in the 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:16.320 educational system as we think about K through twelve. Of course, well, 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:18.760 we're spending a lot of time as you can imagine 0:08:19.120 --> 0:08:22.800 at Ohio State UM as we reopen the university, and 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:26.160 we want to make sure that we're able to do 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.600 that and to do it safely, and that of course 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:31.960 means that we want to test our students as they 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:34.280 come back. We want to make sure that we de 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:38.480 identify classes, so these large lecture classes that all of 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:40.840 us know from when we were in college are not 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:43.040 going to work right now, so that we do over 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:47.880 distance learning, but smaller classes where we can have appropriate distancing. 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:51.760 Keep our students six feet apart, make sure they're wearing masks, 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:55.400 make sure our faculty are wearing masks, particularly in areas 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:58.720 like the medical school where they have to be physically present, 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:02.200 or even in is like theater arts where we're in 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:04.240 dance where they have to be in a class. You 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:07.240 can't do that over your TV monitor. We want to 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:09.960 make sure that we can continue to do these things, 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:12.800 but do them safely. And of course this has had 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:16.760 an impact on some programs like athletics and result in 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:19.640 some very difficult decisions that needed to be made to 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:23.240 keep our students and our staff and our faculty stays. 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:25.839 But we are all doing this with the notion that 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:27.719 we're going to get through this thing. And you know, 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:30.760 i'd like to tell you the precise day, um in 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:33.000 the next year when this will all be done, but 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:34.960 it will be done and we'll be on the other 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:36.880 side of it. And then We're going to get back 0:09:36.920 --> 0:09:39.559 to all the things that we used to do at 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:42.679 the university to their fullest extent, but in the meantime 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:45.480 without shutting down entirely. And that's what we want to 0:09:45.640 --> 0:09:48.520 avoid at all costs, is to have to shut down entirely. 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:50.920 We want to do as much as we possibly can 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:54.160 that we can do safely. Right all right, Well, uh, 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:56.520 we've run out of time. We'd love to have you 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:59.199 back soon, because you are really at the nexus of 0:09:59.240 --> 0:10:01.960 so many things we're interested in when it comes to 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:05.000 fighting this virus, the future of education, and as you 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:10.720 alluded to, Buckeye football, Thank goodness, gracious, no big tent football. Yikes. 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:14.800 Who are listening to Bloomberg Business Week, Well, when you 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.400 think about what's going on in the world, and when 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:21.520 the name Steve Bannon comes into the headlines like it 0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:25.600 did yesterday with a vengeance, there is one thing you 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.079 want to read, and that's anything that Josh Green writes. 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:32.000 And we're fortunate to have that as the centerpiece of 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:35.920 our political conversation today. Joining us Amanda Colson Hurley. She 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:38.760 is Politics editor for Bloomberg Business Week. She edited this 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:41.960 piece and Joel Webber, of course, the editor Bloomberg Business Week. 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:47.160 He joins us from Massachusetts. So Joel, I was so 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:50.520 happy when this hit the wire because it's what you 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:53.000 want to know. It is what's going on, and a 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:58.560 reminder of who Steve Bannon is, that's right, and and uh, 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:00.960 you know, Josh Green, for the is that don't know him. 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:04.080 Um wrote a book that is very much about Steve 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:07.199 Bannon and sort of the power that um, he's been 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:11.000 able to wield on the right. And so that's called 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:14.280 The Devil's Bargain. UM. And I had kind of nudged 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:17.360 Amanda earlier in the day. Josh is obviously a very 0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:20.000 busy man right now with an election around the corner, 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.040 and we've got him on all kinds of stories, and 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:23.760 I was like, just you know, by the way, just 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:26.040 make sure that you remember to nudge Josh because we 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:29.559 saw this this Bannon headline flash that he had been arrested, 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:31.640 and I was like, oh, boy, of all the people 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:34.200 in the world, like I desperately want to read right now, 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.760 Josh Green just made himself that number one person. Um. 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:41.959 And so Amanda, uh, and Josh got it done. Um, Amanda, 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:46.560 what what what's ultimately Josh's take in the story. Yeah, 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:52.280 So Josha's take is that Bannon's indictment sort of represents 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:56.880 the end of this this arc of UM, a political 0:11:56.920 --> 0:12:00.800 project that Bannon a kind of big and when he 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:04.920 was advising Trump before, you know, when Trump was campaigning 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:09.600 in twenty sixteen, that it was really Bannon who has 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:15.360 this vision of combining a sort of UM, anti immigrant 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:22.800 nationalism with economic populism UM to uh kind of come 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:25.360 up with this UM what he thought was like a 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:30.280 winning UM, you know, multi generational kind of winning formula 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:34.000 for the Republican Party. UM. And I think at the 0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:37.400 time of you know, Republican Party leaders were really not 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:41.000 sold on that. Uh. They really thought that they had 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.640 to start to pivot to the center a little bit more, UM, 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:48.640 try to win over more moderate voters, UM, try to 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:54.480 make more inroads with UM minority groups. UM. But Bannon, Uh, 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:58.880 Bannon's vision or insight proved to be correct in you know, 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:04.079 Trump won, UM, but uh, you know Bannon, UM. So 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:07.280 Bannon kind of thought that, uh, you know, this was 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:11.920 going to be the beginning of a grand political project 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.280 that would unfold from there. UM. You know what actually 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:21.240 happened was that UM, he pretty quickly alienated himself, uh, 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:23.360 you know from other people in the White House. He 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:26.720 left the White House, he kind of tried to drum 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:32.280 up a kind of global nationalist political movement. UM that 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:36.160 has so far, you know, uh not yielded too much, 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.840 at least for him. Um. And Uh, this you know, 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:44.199 recent indictment kind of shows that he was not able 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:48.680 to deliver on uh, you know, a key promise of 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:52.400 that vision that he shaved for Trump, which was the wall. Um. 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.640 You know, this was an effort to privately fund and 0:13:55.720 --> 0:14:00.640 build the border wall. Um. And it collected uh something 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:03.440 like twenty five million dollars in donations from hundreds of 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:08.400 thousands of people. Uh. And the allegation is that Bannon 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:13.000 and and three others um kind of youth a nonprofit 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:16.400 and I think a shell company to uh to funnel 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:20.520 some of that money, you know, to themselves personally. Um. 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:24.800 And so Bannon, you know, this represents arguably, you know 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:30.800 the end of his political projects. But notably, Trump has 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:32.960 also not been able to deliver on some of these 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.520 things either. Um. You know, he has uh not built 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:39.560 a great state, beautiful wall as he promised on a 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:44.920 campaign trail. Um. You know, it's difficult to argue that 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:48.400 America is kind of great again. I mean with you know, 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:52.480 his his tax cuts, uh, you know, benefited arguably the 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:54.720 rich and not so much the kind of middle class 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:57.680 uh as a Bannon I think, and Trump you know 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:00.200 had hoped. Well, Amanda, that's what's really interesting. And I 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:02.680 love just even the title you know that Josh puts it. 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:05.320 You guys put on this at the end of you know, 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.560 it may mean the end of Steve Bannon, maybe Trump too. 0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:11.160 And it's interesting because, as you say, they laid out 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:16.040 this platform, there were critical states of voters who bought 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:18.880 into that platform and brought Trump to the White House. 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:23.080 Come and yet now you know, first of all, we 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:26.200 know Bannon and Trump aren't a pair anymore. And you're 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:29.400 realizing that that political platform that got Trump to the 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:32.960 White House, you know, um, isn't there. He didn't he 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:35.080 didn't follow through. And then you do wonder about, Okay, 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:40.320 so what impact might that have come come November? Right, Well, 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:44.200 I think that clearly remains to be seen. Um, there 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:47.400 are certainly some things that I would guess, you know, 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:50.640 Trump voters believe that he has delivered on. Um. I'm 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:54.000 sure there uh, you know, he has put a lot 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:58.560 of you know, conservative judges. Uh, he has made a 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:01.240 lot of those appointments, and that was a really big 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:05.240 you know that that was a really big factor I 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:09.240 think for a lot of people who voted for him. Um. So, 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:12.200 I mean there are you know, other variables in this 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:17.800 um but uh, certainly, um some of those I guess 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:21.120 the kind of signature you might also almost call them 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:25.360 bandonian kind of goals Uh from the twenty sixteen campaign. 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:28.480 Uh do seem you know, do seem to be unfulfilled 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:33.120 at this point. Yeah. It's a really interesting reminder of 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:37.600 how important he was, and especially on the eve of 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:42.440 the Republican National Convention next week, Carol, Uh, a reminder 0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:46.600 of what we saw in and how integral to it 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.160 Steve Bannon was. It's a great must read. Check it 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:54.000 out online and on the Bloomberg terminal. Josh Green wrote it. 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.280 Amanda Herley edited it. She's the politics editor for Bloomberg 0:16:57.280 --> 0:16:59.640 Business Week. She joined us, as did Joel Weber, the 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:04.280 editor or of Bloomberg Business Week. This is Bloomberg Business 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:08.359 Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:12.080 Listended Bloomberg Business Week on this Friday. I guess say, 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:14.320 listening Jason recently one morning, is I like to do 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.280 to surveillance with Tom Keene and the Gang. Danny blanche 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:19.679 Flower was on. He was talking about walk around economics, 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:22.040 which I just wanted to hear more about. So in 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.880 today's Business Week Economics. Excited to have with us Professor 0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:28.640 of economics Danny blanch Flower from Dartmouth College, former Bank 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:31.560 of England Monetary Policy Committee member. He joins us on 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:35.399 the phone from Hanover, New Hampshire. UM Professor blanch Flower, 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:37.480 it is so nice to have you on. I love 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:39.920 it when you're on with Keen in the game. You're 0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:44.119 so much fun. Um so much to talk about when 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:46.320 it comes to the economy, And first up, I want 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:48.880 to talk about what's so important to the economy. Education, 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:53.280 those in school, those who just graduated, you know, they're 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:56.640 coming into a really tough workplace. Tell me about kind 0:17:56.640 --> 0:17:59.600 of what you're setting up for in the fall. Well 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.120 with with there's a there's a number of things. I mean, 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:04.479 I think there's there's two bits really to start us 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:06.919 going the Third World three. The first is what are 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:10.199 we doing about the kids my Dartmouth kids who graduated 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:13.640 in June and July of this year and others. How 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:17.240 are they doing with all the people on the layoff, 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:19.800 if you like, and the struggles in the job market. 0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:22.359 I just sawt today. Massachusetts has a nonempoint way to 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:28.200 what So, what's happening to them? Um, particularly what's happening 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:31.480 to kids who aren't going to college? What's happening to 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:34.720 those folks? And in fact, it's not perhaps surprising that 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.960 we're seeing unrest in cities. Think about so the kids 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:40.639 who left school, maybe they were high school dropper, what 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:43.440 are they doing? What hope will work is there for them? 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.440 And then the third group is obviously the kids who 0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:49.280 are going to college right now, UM and I taught 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:53.520 class in the spring remote UM Dartmouth. We are supposed 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:56.320 to have some of our freshmen coming back, although this 0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:59.600 week they put that back again, and old faculty like 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.240 me and we're staying home. So even though the students 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:06.119 may be coming to the university, the faculty are not 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:08.760 are not there. I mean, so this is obviously kind 0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:11.399 of chaotic, and I think the big implication we should 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.399 think of Blumberg should be concerned about what's happening in 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:17.320 the town's what's happening in the places you know, where 0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:19.160 the where the kids are on the street. But also 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:21.440 if they're not going to print them, they're not going 0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:24.920 to Harvard. I mean, think about Harvard, there's the whole institution, 0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:29.080 all the things around in Cambridge and around the universities 0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:32.320 in that in that great city. This is a really 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:34.600 downward shock to spending and the good news that you 0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:37.720 were just giving you. Remember, these are lagging indicators. We're 0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:40.440 going to see a downward pressure in the next few 0:19:40.440 --> 0:19:44.280 weeks as the as we approached the elections. But this 0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:47.879 is all very complicated, but none of it's very good news. 0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:52.000 Well indeeded that that gets us right to this whole 0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:54.679 notion of walk around economics that that Carol and I 0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:57.600 talked about, even on the very rare occasions that she 0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:00.159 and I leave our homes and go back to our 0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:03.480 office for for a day or two, the neighborhood around 0:20:03.680 --> 0:20:06.880 Bloomberg in the same way that you're talking about these 0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:10.679 college towns that are suffering, What is the way to 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:13.560 measure that? How do you approach that in terms of 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:19.280 really quantifying the net effect here? I mean, let's put 0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:21.800 this in context. I mean, I was on the bank 0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:24.280 of England and well known these days, just saying a 0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.160 year ahead of things that, um, the data is looking 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:30.240 really bad. My economics of walking about, talking to people, 0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:34.760 observing what I see was changing. So obviously some of 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:37.720 it has to do with surveys that Bloomberg talks about. 0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:39.600 You talk about the p M eyes and you talk 0:20:39.640 --> 0:20:41.920 about all sorts of things like that. But a lot 0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:44.280 of it is I think you walk around the streets 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:46.399 of New York, you walk up with Hexington and what 0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:48.840 do you think you know the people you know and 0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:51.280 all these people sitting at home working. So I gave 0:20:51.320 --> 0:20:54.879 a story. I remember being in in England early in 0:20:55.000 --> 0:20:57.560 two thousand and eight and I was in a taxi 0:20:57.680 --> 0:21:00.880 cab driving down Oxford Street and the taxi driver said, 0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:02.520 I know who you are. He said, you've been talking 0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:04.960 about the recession here. And he said, I've been driving 0:21:05.040 --> 0:21:07.479 up and down this this most busy street in Europe 0:21:07.480 --> 0:21:10.520 for thirty years around Christmas and he said I've seen something. 0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:13.119 He said, for the very first time, I've seen the 0:21:13.160 --> 0:21:17.120 shoppers are walking around and they don't have shopping bags. Well, 0:21:17.200 --> 0:21:19.560 well there's a great example, right, So we've Then a 0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:22.000 little bit later we suddenly start to see a big 0:21:22.080 --> 0:21:24.960 drop in spending, but the economics are walking about. It 0:21:25.000 --> 0:21:28.680 is essentially what firms do all the time. It's market intelligence. 0:21:28.720 --> 0:21:31.639 It's looking at you walk down your streets. And in 0:21:31.680 --> 0:21:34.000 two thousand seven I was walking down the streets around 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:37.560 here and businesses were closing. How of the main street 0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:41.280 at Dartmouth is basically half empty, So none of this 0:21:41.320 --> 0:21:43.199 has really picked up. So I think the economics are 0:21:43.240 --> 0:21:45.920 walking about is essentially what bloom Book is so good at. 0:21:46.480 --> 0:21:50.240 It's market intelligence. It's looking at, well, what's happening to people, 0:21:50.320 --> 0:21:52.240 you know, what's happening to the people going through the 0:21:52.320 --> 0:21:55.119 toll booth, how many people are going through the t 0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:58.600 s A checks, what's happening to grub hub, what's happening 0:21:58.640 --> 0:22:01.720 to all these kinds of things. And the evidence from 0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:05.800 those is that it was very early showing slowing, and 0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:08.120 it's really not showing a great pick up in many 0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:10.239 of the states that have seen more COVID. So it's 0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:13.639 about I think, being smart, and especially in the world 0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:17.960 where the normal survey indicators don't pick things up. So 0:22:18.119 --> 0:22:20.760 in the UK, the unemployment rate still hasn't moved from 0:22:20.800 --> 0:22:23.919 street point nine, even though there's ten million people on 0:22:25.160 --> 0:22:27.760 furloughed on benefits. So I think it's this period now 0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:31.480 you really have to switch your brain on and start 0:22:31.520 --> 0:22:34.000 to think what's really going on? And perhaps what I 0:22:34.040 --> 0:22:35.760 see on the street, I mean interesting, what do you 0:22:35.800 --> 0:22:39.800 see on the street around Bloomberg see very quiet street? Well, 0:22:39.840 --> 0:22:41.920 you know what's what's wild to Danny, isn't I had 0:22:41.920 --> 0:22:45.000 to pop into the city for a medical appointment this morning, 0:22:45.000 --> 0:22:48.040 but it was like I flew in driving, which is 0:22:48.240 --> 0:22:51.159 unheard of at like eight in the morning, you know, 0:22:51.240 --> 0:22:54.120 And then even coming home, you know, I don't I'm 0:22:54.119 --> 0:22:56.159