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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and transgender people in Florida now face

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Speaker 1: the state taking their drivers' licenses. We have a star

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Speaker 1: studded show today. Egene Carroll and Robbie Kaplan join us

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Speaker 1: to talk about their massive victory over former President Trump

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Speaker 1: and what's next in their quest for justice. Brian Class

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Speaker 1: talks to us about his new book Fluke, Chance, Chaos,

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Speaker 1: and why everything we do matters. But first we have

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Speaker 1: former Senator and host of the Al Franken podcast, the one,

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Speaker 1: the Only Al Franken. Welcome back to you Fast Politics.

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Speaker 1: One of my favorite guests, Al Franken, were You're my

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Speaker 1: favorite hosts except for like hosts who have like TV

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Speaker 1: shows and no no, So I want to start by

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Speaker 1: talking about this insane border legislation. I had breakfast with

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Speaker 1: Chris Murphy on Friday morning at Steak and Eggs. Have

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Speaker 1: you ever been there?

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Speaker 2: No? But it sounds like I know what their menu is.

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Speaker 1: And I had it Homelet oh, okay, cheese eggs. I'm

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Speaker 1: getting to the headline here, and he said they had

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Speaker 1: been working on this border package for like about three

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Speaker 1: and a half months, and it's Langford, him and everyone's

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Speaker 1: favorite independent. She's not even everyone's favorite independent, right because

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Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders is everybody's favorite cinema with cinema, but she's

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Speaker 1: not everybody's favorite Independent, and that they had something. But

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Speaker 1: of course, you know what did that mean? So you

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Speaker 1: actually have worked with Langford? I mean, you've worked with

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Speaker 1: all these people, but you've certainly worked with Langford.

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Speaker 2: And Chris, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, So we were just talking about I would

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Speaker 1: be curious, let's talk about this in Saturday.

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Speaker 2: Well, length Efford is very very conservative and on the border,

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Speaker 2: and basically what they were trying to do is come

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Speaker 2: up with something that both sides could live with. And

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Speaker 2: we do have a problem at the border. I don't

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Speaker 2: know what's in the package. No one actually knows what

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Speaker 2: it is, but clearly it's going to be something much

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Speaker 2: stricter in terms of letting people in and kicking people out.

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Speaker 2: And they had a deal that included funding the war

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine and Israel. So they had it worked out

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Speaker 2: and they had worked on it for how many months?

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Speaker 2: I don't know, would Chris tell you like four months

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Speaker 2: or five months or something like that. They've been working

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Speaker 2: on us, I'm sure constantly, maybe much longer. And they

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Speaker 2: had a package and that they were going to go with,

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Speaker 2: and then Trump said I don't want it because I

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Speaker 2: want to have it not solved. I don't want Biden

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Speaker 2: to take credit.

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Speaker 1: I want something to run on, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And they went, oh, okay, McConnell wall, all right, well, okay,

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Speaker 2: that's what you want. We want more judges, you know,

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Speaker 2: and and we want fascist running the government so right.

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Speaker 1: Because of the tax cut. Let me ask you a

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Speaker 1: question about Mitch McConnell here, because you actually know him too.

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Speaker 1: When Mitch McConnell said Trump wants us to kill this DL,

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Speaker 1: was Mitch McConnell actually trying to throw Trump under the

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Speaker 1: bus or was Mitch mcconnald just speaking truth to power.

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Speaker 2: I think what he was doing is well for this,

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Speaker 2: either he'll get phone under the bus or it'll help him.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, but I'm doing we're all supposed to

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Speaker 2: do right now from our own politics. And that's why

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Speaker 2: I think what he did. I think he was being

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Speaker 2: sincere though actually that he was saying like, okay, now

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Speaker 2: we got now we gotta do what the boss says,

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Speaker 2: and get him elected. That's what they want, and that's

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Speaker 2: that way they get judges, and that way they get

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Speaker 2: they get what they want.

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Speaker 1: It's such an insane thing to think about for a

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Speaker 1: minute here, because here's Mitch McConnell. This is probably, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe he runs again. Never underestimate the

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Speaker 1: ability of senators to refuse to leave. But it does

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Speaker 1: seem like, you know, here you are into your older

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Speaker 1: years and you realize that your legacy is going to

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Speaker 1: be just like Trump Patsy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know, everybody is Trump's Patsy basically on

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Speaker 2: the Republican Party right now. And that's the politics. They

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Speaker 2: want a Republican president. He's the he's the nominee, that's clear,

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Speaker 2: and he demands that kind of loyalty and fealty and

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Speaker 2: he gets it. They've surrendered.

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Speaker 1: So it seems like now even though Republicans don't control

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Speaker 1: the Senate and they only control the House by I

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Speaker 1: think it's two right now, right right? If Swazi when

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Speaker 1: then there'll be one. You would just need one Republican.

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Speaker 2: Just one COVID.

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Speaker 1: That wasn't what I was thinking, but you could just

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Speaker 1: one to say you know this party is really pathetic.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to switch, and you have a speaker who

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Speaker 1: Keem Jeffers.

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Speaker 2: I hadn't thought of that. I don't know any Republican

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Speaker 2: House member who would do that. But I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I don't know hardly any of them anyway.

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Speaker 1: Right, I mean, you only need one, and there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of them who are on their way out right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm just saying, like Patrick McHenry, you know somebody.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously Patrick McHenry is not going to do

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Speaker 1: it because he comes from Freedom Caucus and is ultimately

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Speaker 1: probably as bad as the rest of them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know the House lot. But I'd name someone

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Speaker 2: who would do this, and then what would happen to them?

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Speaker 1: They'd have to hire mid Romney levels of private security,

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Speaker 1: so they'd have to be quite rich. I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it just seems is unlikely that there really isn't anyone

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Speaker 1: who could do that, not even could. I mean any

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Speaker 1: of them could, but none of them would. The thing

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Speaker 1: I'm so struck by. I want you to talk about

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Speaker 1: this for a minute, because this is something I feel

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Speaker 1: like we don't talk about but is actually really important.

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Speaker 1: Like the economy is quite good and Biden made this

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Speaker 1: big announcement to pause natural gas export because we are

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Speaker 1: now the largest exporter of natural gas in the entire world,

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Speaker 1: and a.

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Speaker 2: Lot of that kind of happened because of the war

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine and Europe not taking gas from Russia.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so here we are a gas giant pausing it

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Speaker 1: because Biden actually cares about the environment and wants to

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Speaker 1: look at the impact of some of what this is

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Speaker 1: doing to indigenous people. What this is, you know, a

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Speaker 1: sort of study, but it's clearly easy to ramp up.

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Speaker 1: It means that the OPEC does not have the monopoly

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Speaker 1: it once did. It means a lot of really good things.

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Speaker 1: So business leaders are not embracing Biden even though the

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Speaker 1: economy is so good. This is like this weird dichotomy

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Speaker 1: where Democrats don't get credit for good economies and Republicans do,

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Speaker 1: and then polling shows that people trust Republicans better on

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Speaker 1: the economy. Why does this happen, Well.

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Speaker 2: That's good propaganda by Republicans. Actually, Biden's economy and his

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Speaker 2: job creation numbers are higher than Trump's, and we have

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Speaker 2: to advertise that that's something we have to be talking about.

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Speaker 2: And people are beginning to feel it. I mean, there

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Speaker 2: has been that lag since that, you know, since nine

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Speaker 2: percent inflation, and that's scared of the Jesus out of people.

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Speaker 2: They had not seen that since you know, it's really

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Speaker 2: the seventies, and there's a lag from that that people

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Speaker 2: are beginning to see the economy is picking up. The

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Speaker 2: stock markets as the highest, you know, and that affects

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Speaker 2: people's pensions obviously, and the four oh one ks, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: I think that there's enough time between on the election

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Speaker 2: for people to see that Biden has been a much

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Speaker 2: better steward of the economy than Trump has, just in

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Speaker 2: terms of job creation.

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Speaker 1: It's like they all just want a tax cut.

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Speaker 2: I don't think all wealthy people want a tax cut.

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Speaker 1: No, but I mean all these Republicans just want a

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Speaker 1: tax cut.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, Americans don't Trump voters, don't Yes, Trump voters.

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Speaker 2: Should people at the top be paying more? They'll say yes.

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Speaker 2: They don't like the elites. They you know, they feel

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Speaker 2: like the elites are self serving, and that's what the

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Speaker 2: Republicans are. They're self serving for people at the top.

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Speaker 2: And so this is one of the basic fights that

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Speaker 2: we have, and it's one that we really need to

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Speaker 2: be pressing, and that Biden needs to be pressing, which is, hey, everybody,

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Speaker 2: we're for taxing people at the top at a higher level.

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Speaker 2: That's what we do. That's what harright, that's our thing.

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Speaker 2: All polling shows that Americans want that, including Trump vote.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean, this is the thing. It's economic populism.

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Speaker 1: Somehow the party that is the economic populist party cannot

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Speaker 1: get credit for it.

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Speaker 2: Well, we have to be loud about it. And this

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Speaker 2: is where Biden needs to get out and do rallies.

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Speaker 2: And Biden needs to go out and show that he

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Speaker 2: can do rallies, and he needs to be hitting these

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Speaker 2: points over and over again.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're in this news crisis, right, We're in this

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Speaker 1: mainstream media crisis where like there's such a drop off

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Speaker 1: and local news. A lot of these really good papers

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Speaker 1: are gone or going massive layoffs this year, like you know,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the numbers or humongous.

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Speaker 2: And where people get their local news now is from

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Speaker 2: talk radio, and talk radio is all this right wing

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Speaker 2: bladder and.

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Speaker 1: Also from social media right, which is like Jesse can

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Speaker 1: tell us what's happening on TikTok, But the algorithm did

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Speaker 1: have Again, I know this is not a huge group,

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Speaker 1: but they did have Osama bin Lawden's was it Osama

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Speaker 1: bin Laden? Yes, his letter to America trending? Yes, poor

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Speaker 1: Jesse has to.

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Speaker 2: Unmute Osama bin Laden's letter to America.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Jesse, tell Al Frank in this story, please unmute.

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Speaker 1: He's im poor Jesse.

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Speaker 3: Osama bin Laden's letter to America trended on TikTok when

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Speaker 3: the Israel October seventh started because it was an indictment

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Speaker 3: of American imperialism, and the kids found it relevant for

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Speaker 3: some reason.

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Speaker 2: Oh the kids.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm really glad to be the voice of this.

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Speaker 4: This is really what the paycheck pays me for.

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Speaker 1: And there's some sense in which it's very possible that

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Speaker 1: the algorithm may have helped.

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Speaker 2: This out right, the algorithm, once something starts to trend THEND,

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Speaker 2: then it just goes nuts. Is that it?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, TikTok again. There is a sense in which the

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Speaker 1: algorithm supports more of a negative bent in America versus

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Speaker 1: in China, where it encourages children to read and be good.

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Speaker 2: I see so, and that's what was in Osama bin

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Speaker 2: Laden's letter.

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Speaker 4: No, no, no, definitely not.

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Speaker 2: I didn't I was just confused there for a segment.

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Speaker 4: The death to America for refrain was pretty strong, as

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Speaker 4: I recall from the early days of the two thousands.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not great.

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Speaker 2: So Issama bin Laden wrote two letters, one for Chinese TikTok,

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Speaker 2: which is a wholesome Listen to your parents, do your homework,

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Speaker 2: try to get into an American university. That's because it

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Speaker 2: was written several years ago. He doesn't say that anymore.

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Speaker 2: He wouldn't.

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Speaker 4: He was known for his misscleoes to see the future.

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Speaker 2: Try to go to an American university, but don't fly there,

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Speaker 2: go by boat.

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Speaker 1: Anyway. The point is, yes, I'm sorry, please help me.

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Speaker 2: That was dark.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry it was really dark, but it was sort

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Speaker 1: of hilarious. But again, here we are on the precipice

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Speaker 1: of another Trump Biden showdown, and I think there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of anxiety, right, I mean, why do the stakes

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Speaker 1: have to continually be so high?

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Speaker 2: Well, the stakes are incredibly high right now. Did you

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Speaker 2: notice we have the possibility of Donald Trump being elected

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Speaker 2: and the second term is going to be very different

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Speaker 2: than the first, meaning it's going to be the first

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Speaker 2: on steroids. I mean it's going to be if one

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Speaker 2: be vindicated and two there'll be just no holes barred.

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Speaker 2: And I I assume that if he wins, they'll be

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Speaker 2: or there may very well be a Republican Senate and

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Speaker 2: may very well be a Republican House, although I don't

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Speaker 2: see them holding the House because I think Americans have

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Speaker 2: been watching this house enough.

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Speaker 1: To see us so bad.

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Speaker 2: To see how I mean, this is a spectacularly bad house.

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Speaker 2: I actually see possibility of both houses whipping Trump. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: this is an existential threat to our democracy, and if

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Speaker 2: he becomes president or this country, the nature of this

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Speaker 2: democracy changes, meaning it may not be one. And at

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Speaker 2: the end of four years. Yeah, we got nine months

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Speaker 2: of this of being scared.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's funny because it's like, it's not funny,

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Speaker 1: but it's the like, do you want to have elections election?

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Speaker 1: I was listening to NPR and they were talking about

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Speaker 1: how Trump is only eligible to serve four more years,

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Speaker 1: and I'm thinking myself, like, oh, okay, well, I'm sure

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Speaker 1: then he'll stick by that.

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Speaker 2: I see him doing all kinds of things. I worry

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Speaker 2: about him switching the parliamentarian in the Senate and try

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Speaker 2: to do everything with fifty votes. If he has fifty

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Speaker 2: if you look at the history of autocracies, there's all

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Speaker 2: kinds of things he can do, you know, and at

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Speaker 2: a certain point the autocrat says, nope, we're changing this,

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Speaker 2: and he's able to. This is as frightening as is.

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Speaker 2: Last night I was on CNN. I read just a

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Speaker 2: couple things, and I want to get these guys to

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Speaker 2: start speaking out. This is James Mattis, who was of

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Speaker 2: course Sectuary of Defense, talking about Trump. He is more

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Speaker 2: dangerous than anyone could ever imagine. Now he said this,

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Speaker 2: and these guys tend to say these things once or

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Speaker 2: write them once. They got to start talking like every day.

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Speaker 2: This is John Kelly, who was his chief staff. Right.

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Speaker 2: The depths, the depths of his dishonesty is just a

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Speaker 2: to me. He is the most flawed person I have

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Speaker 2: ever met in my life. Now it's sort of up

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Speaker 2: to these guys, I think, not to say this once,

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Speaker 2: but to be saying it every day. And they're supposed

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Speaker 2: to be patriots, they were military, they love this country.

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Speaker 2: This guy is so dangerous and we need everybody, not

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Speaker 2: just hopefully Taylor Swift, because she didn't serve with him.

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Speaker 2: She didn't you know, she didn't see it. Up close

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Speaker 2: and these guys did. I mean, there's on and on

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Speaker 2: it goes with these people and they say these things

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Speaker 2: once and get quoted in some story. But they have

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Speaker 2: to they have to come out. So this is my

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Speaker 2: new thing. I'm just pounding this. You guys come out

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Speaker 2: and start talking and start talking every day.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, Al Franken, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 2: You bet, Molly. Always a pleasure, always fun, except now.

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Speaker 1: Egen Carroll is a columnist and author. ROBERTA. Kaplan is

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Speaker 1: a lawyer who represented Egen Carroll in our case against

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, as well as arguing United States v. Windsor

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fast Politics. Robbie Caplan and Egen Carroll, you.

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Speaker 5: Don't much better you need than you, Egene.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about this case because

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Speaker 1: I remember when I introduced George to Egen, he said, oh,

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Speaker 1: I know the lawyer. I know the lawyer. I know

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Speaker 1: the woman who can do this case. How did you

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Speaker 1: know George, Robbie.

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Speaker 5: You know, I don't think I really knew him. I mean,

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Speaker 5: he was a lot tough for many years while I

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Speaker 5: was at Paul Weiss. I certainly knew who he was

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Speaker 5: because lawyers at firms like that kind of generally know

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Speaker 5: each other. I don't think we ever had a case together,

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Speaker 5: or I cannot call any circumstances in which we interacted.

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Speaker 5: But when Trump was elected and George, who I thought

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Speaker 5: was remarkably not only prescient but courageous and disavowing him

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Speaker 5: right away as a conservative Republican, we somehow became acquainted.

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Speaker 5: And I don't honestly when he made that call, and

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Speaker 5: not even should we'd ever met yet.

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Speaker 1: It's so interesting because it's like the thing you were

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Speaker 1: so famous for was same sex marriage, right, arguing that

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Speaker 1: from in front of the Supreme Court. It's a different

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Speaker 1: kind of moral courage, but it's similar in a certain way, right.

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Speaker 5: I don't know how to answer that. I think George

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Speaker 5: is more courageous doing what he did because I was

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Speaker 5: very My decision on Windsor was very popular among the people.

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Speaker 5: I found that with George, his decision was exceedingly unpopular

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Speaker 5: in the group of people he found that with so

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Speaker 5: very My wife supported me. His wife was.

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Speaker 6: Much Yeah, she's.

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Speaker 1: Not a fan of mine either. So let's talk about

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Speaker 1: how this case when, and sort of a little bit

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Speaker 1: about as you were getting going in it. How was

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Speaker 1: the process? This is all because of this Adult Survivors

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Speaker 1: Act too. Right.

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Speaker 5: The case that was tried first, that was tried less Spring,

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Speaker 5: was all because of the Adult Survivors Act, which Egene

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Speaker 5: herself tried helped bring about.

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Speaker 1: And that is the second case. Right.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, with the second case that was filed, it just

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Speaker 5: moved a lot faster because it didn't have any of

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Speaker 5: these complicated issues about federal power and whether he was president, etc.

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Speaker 1: Right. Can you talk a little bit about the Adult

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Speaker 1: Survivors Act and also Egene's involvement in that.

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Speaker 5: Sure. So the Adult Survivors Act was a law that

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Speaker 5: grew out of the realization by many many people that

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Speaker 5: women who had been sexually assaulted, for example, at the

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Speaker 5: time that Egene was assaulted, and even for years and

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Speaker 5: years before that, quite rationally, in my view, at that

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Speaker 5: point in time, would have and could have it probably

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Speaker 5: should have made the decision not to report it. We

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Speaker 5: weren't a society that was particularly open.

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Speaker 1: To those issues.

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Speaker 5: The DA's offices weren't particularly open to those issues, and

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Speaker 5: so a lot of women again rationally, decided to keep

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Speaker 5: it quiet. So the Adult Survivors that said, look, if

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Speaker 5: that had happened to you many years ago, and you

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Speaker 5: could no longer be a claim because of what's called

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Speaker 5: the statue limitations, which means your case is barred by

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Speaker 5: the time limits. You can have a free one year

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Speaker 5: look back, essentially, in which during the course of that

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Speaker 5: year you can bring those claims and statute of limitations

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Speaker 5: are not a defense. That's basically what it did. That

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Speaker 5: that period is now over. It began two Thanksgivings ago,

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Speaker 5: when it ended last Thanksgiving. Egen, you should talk about

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Speaker 5: your role of getting a tasked.

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Speaker 1: Yes, please do, Molly.

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Speaker 6: As you know, I'm not good at politics. I don't

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Speaker 6: about how to even go about it. Robbie's wife, Rachel

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Speaker 6: A Line was my sort of my coach the goose.

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Speaker 6: I turned the board myself to write to every single

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Speaker 6: member of the House of Representatives in Albany. I didn't

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Speaker 6: know how to be assembly the Assembly, all the Assembly members. Molly,

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Speaker 6: how do you write a letter to all the Assembly

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Speaker 6: members in Albany? And she really coached me through. So

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Speaker 6: that was the first thing we did. Second thing we

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Speaker 6: did is I went to Albany with Rachel Tuckman, one

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Speaker 6: of our great lawyers here, and Rachel at the time

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Speaker 6: she didn't want anybody. Now it was six weeks pregnant,

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Speaker 6: and that woman ran up. You've been to Albany and

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Speaker 6: Molly right the down staircase or wherever that thing is going.

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Speaker 6: There were so many stairs in the New York camp up.

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Speaker 6: And that woman is six weeks who was told she

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Speaker 6: should not be traveling, walking, driving. She went the stairs,

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Speaker 6: We got into the elevator. We went from office to office,

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Speaker 6: knocking on doors, introducing ourselves. And here's the thing on

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Speaker 6: Nobody wanted to talk to us. Now body, nobody wants

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Speaker 6: to hear about sexual assault. They just they feel bad

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Speaker 6: about it. They don't know how to handle it. They

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Speaker 6: don't want two women knocked around their doors show the saw.

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Speaker 6: You know, they don't except Linda Rosenthal. She said, come girls,

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Speaker 6: and we sit down, and she helped us plot out

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Speaker 6: and Senator Brad hole in money those two really and

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Speaker 6: plus the letters, I think ana a little bit and lo,

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Speaker 6: lo and behold the thing passed. It passed amazing. It

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Speaker 6: made all the difference. And look what happened.

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Speaker 5: Remember at the end, everybody, remember last month when everybody

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Speaker 5: started coming forward, and remember on puff Daddy.

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Speaker 1: So this adult Survivors Act. There's a certain window and

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Speaker 1: which you can come forward, and I think when does

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Speaker 1: it end? I think it ended last month, right.

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Speaker 5: There might have some extensions for whatever reason, but it's

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Speaker 5: oldver it ended at a little bit. I think the

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Speaker 5: woman and who Sue Litle purported to sue Sean Colms

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Speaker 5: was doing so order in New York City law, which

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Speaker 5: was about to expire. I think we built survivors that

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Speaker 5: expired around Thanksgiving, Okay, November twenty second, twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. We spend so much time on this

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Speaker 1: podcast talking about conservatives going into the legal system to

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Speaker 1: take away our rights, especially after Row. It's really interesting

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Speaker 1: the idea that you could conceivably change these rights so

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Speaker 1: that survivors would have more rights.

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Speaker 5: Well, yeah, well that's what and that's is that how

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Speaker 5: what happened? More rights?

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Speaker 6: Who are got more rights?

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Speaker 5: I mean part of the right side in terms of

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Speaker 5: kind of what's happening legally at SCOTUS right now. Theoretically,

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Speaker 5: at least, the states should have a lot more power,

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Speaker 5: and so states like New York and California and others

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Speaker 5: that want to pass progressive legislation should have more power

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Speaker 5: to do so as a Supreme court kind of gets

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Speaker 5: you rid of all these federal protections.

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Speaker 1: It's a halcyon thought. Unlikely, right, I mean, And they're

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Speaker 1: ultimately their goal is just to dismantle the federal governments. Ye,

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Speaker 1: do whatever they want. I'm curious. So now, so just

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Speaker 1: tell me about the sort of process of waiting. I mean, Egene,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure that you were flooded with vitrial. I always

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Speaker 1: find like that it actually kind of gets to me,

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Speaker 1: even though I say it doesn't get to me, it

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Speaker 1: sort of gets to me.

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Speaker 6: Oh well, it's intense today, yet very intense today after

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Speaker 6: we did Madou last night, and we did yesterday, and

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Speaker 6: you know, the morning shows, and they just are because

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Speaker 6: we really really trounced Donald Trump, and it's making people

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Speaker 6: a little insane. His supporters, they really can't believe that

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Speaker 6: an elderly woman and a hot shot lawyer and a

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Speaker 6: team of young just indestructible attorneys almost well of us

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Speaker 6: who are women, just wrongstier. So it's making people a

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Speaker 6: little nervous, and so they strike out at Robbie and me.

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Speaker 1: So I think a lot about this, Like you're my

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Speaker 1: mom's age, you're a little younger than my mom, and

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Speaker 1: you are Donald Trump's age right now.

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Speaker 5: I'm eighty eighty, your mom's.

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Speaker 6: Eight eighty three. I had told you that I was

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Speaker 6: walking down the street. Erika John was the first celebrity

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Speaker 6: I saw, and I had just come in from Montana.

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Speaker 6: I'm walking down the avenue and there comes this vision

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Speaker 6: blond hair, yards of it lying out around her head.

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Speaker 6: And this was a woman I work you reading in

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Speaker 6: my little Montana cabine. Fear of flying made such an

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Speaker 6: impression on all this, and she's coming towards me. I'm

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Speaker 6: walking my dog.

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Speaker 5: I just I can't believe it. I was in nningar

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Speaker 5: Erica John herself walking down the street, and she was

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Speaker 5: so I did. I was not prepared for her beauty,

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Speaker 5: much of which you create, and you've been inherited with

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Speaker 5: your massive amounts it.

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Speaker 6: Well, I don't know what color your here today, Molly

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Speaker 6: spread and blonde.

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Speaker 1: So but let me ask you. Now, you're in this

436
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 1: moment where Trump and his followers and his are you know,

437
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 1: he's not going to pay a penny of it. We're

438
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: going to appeal. Da da da da da. Talk me

439
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: through next steps. So here's where we are right now.

440
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: Did vertice has come in. Trump has an opportunity, which

441
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 1: I'm sure people take, to file what are called post

442
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 1: traum motions, basically arguments to the judge that the jury

443
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 1: verdict should be set aside.

444
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 5: Those arguments have about a zero percent chance of success.

445
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 5: Once Judge Kaplan denies those motions, then he will issue

446
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 5: what's called the judgment, and then Trump has I think

447
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 5: it's thirty days to either seek an appellate bond or

448
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 5: to deposit about eighty nine or ninety million dollars with

449
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 5: the court. Last time, when the verdict was only five

450
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 5: million dollars, he actually deposited five point five million dollars

451
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 5: in the court. This time, he's either got to get

452
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 5: a bond or he has to deposit ninety million dollars.

453
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 5: If he doesn't, that means that we can start ed

454
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 5: forcing right away.

455
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 1: So what does that mean?

456
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 5: That means we could say he'd give us pay us

457
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 5: the money, and if he can't pay it all, we're

458
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,479
Speaker 5: allowed to get information about his bank accounts, about his

459
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 5: checking accounts, about how much he's earning, his tax statements,

460
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 5: et cetera.

461
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 1: And that will ultimately destroy the myth of Donald Trump.

462
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 5: I don't know that for a fact, but I wouldn't

463
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 5: be shocked. You mean the myth of him is being wealthy.

464
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean you'll be able to see everything

465
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: he's hidden for so long.

466
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 5: So when does that mean our case closes? Robin? Where's

467
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 5: our case? Club? Our chief closes? Finally closes when the

468
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 5: appellate court is done with it, the Second Circuit and

469
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,439
Speaker 5: if he seeks reviews to the Supreme Court, which I

470
00:26:56,440 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 5: think is extremely doubtful here when they probably or not

471
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 5: taking the case. Okay, so he remained open, so it'll

472
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 5: switch courts, so it'll go from the district court to

473
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 5: the Second Circuit.

474
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 6: But well, man, he defans me again. Yes, is our

475
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:12,959
Speaker 6: case still open?

476
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 5: No, we would have to follow if we want to

477
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 5: bring the case, we'd have to follow yet another case.

478
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 5: Carol three. I see.

479
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 1: But I'm curious. Now you had this experience of being

480
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 1: in these depositions with him. Can we talk a little

481
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 1: bit about what that was like? What was that like?

482
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 5: It was not as crazy, believe it or not as

483
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 5: the trial, which was one of the crazy experienced, but

484
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 5: it was pretty crazy.

485
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: Can you tell the story of what he said to you?

486
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 5: I did shoo depositions with him. The first one was

487
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 5: in another case that's about a fraud case, really, and

488
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 5: at the end of that deposition he was not happy

489
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 5: with me. And at the end of that deposition they

490
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 5: said something like off the record, off the record to

491
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 5: make sure that everything was turned off, and he said

492
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 5: to me, see you next Tuesday. I, fortunately for me,

493
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 5: had no idea what that meant. So I, what are

494
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 5: you talking about. I'm coming back on Wednesday. Literally, But

495
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 5: I said it sounds like I was being witty, but

496
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 5: it was just ignorant. And then we got in the

497
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 5: car and my associates, my colleagues told me what he meant,

498
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 5: and I was like, thank god I didn't know, because

499
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 5: I would have gotten very upset. And then later that

500
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 5: next Wednesday, we were there for the eging Arreld deposition,

501
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 5: and that's where he made these very very significant errors, including,

502
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 5: you know, talking about the excess Hollywood tape and saying

503
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,479
Speaker 5: how fortunately or unfortunately men had been able to get

504
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 5: away with that from millions of years, and looking at

505
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 5: a photo of Ejen her then husband, Donald Trump, and

506
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 5: his then wife in point to Gene and saying, that's

507
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 5: Marlon Maple's.

508
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 1: That was incredible. I remember talking to you after that,

509
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: to seeing you socially somewhere, it's just so like it

510
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 1: just negates all the lies he was saying about are Yeah.

511
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 5: I mean I was because when he listened to the video,

512
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 5: I'm kind of like soft at my wisaritory and I said,

513
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 5: did you just say that was Marlon Bapoles And I

514
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 5: say something like that, and.

515
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: I'm so shocked. Unbullieable but never Molly.

516
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 6: And he says to grab and he said, no offense,

517
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 6: but I'm had a tragure. Gee, you either we're not

518
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 6: right take eye typing either. And of course he air

519
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 6: is the thing on a tirade against Rodney. You know,

520
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 6: she's a Democratic wob of grabit Center and Center. That's

521
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 6: how he ended that.

522
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 5: Oh, Robbie Johnam, I hadn't for lunch or that was

523
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,479
Speaker 5: the first deposition. He looks to me, he said, well

524
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 5: I wanted to I said, okay, sir, I'm going to

525
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 5: cover this one more topic and then we'll break for lunch.

526
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 5: And he said, why do we have to break for lunch?

527
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 5: I just want to go straight through And I said, look,

528
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 5: I would, but there's a court reporter here, there's a

529
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 5: videographer there, title to lunch breaks, that we're gonna have

530
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 5: to take a break, And then you could kind of

531
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 5: see his brain clicking, and he said, well, you're here

532
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 5: in mar A Lango. What do you think you're going

533
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 5: to eat for lunch? And I said, well, I actually

534
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 5: raised this with your attorneys yesterday, including Onlina Hob I think,

535
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 5: and I said, and they graciously offered to provide us

536
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 5: with lunch, at which point he took a huge pile

537
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 5: of papers them across the team.

538
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: It really does seem unfit, right.

539
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, and all of that Molly is nothing, literally nothing

540
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 5: compared to the way he acted in that corporo.

541
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 1: Yeah. First, I want you to talk about the pointing,

542
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 1: because I think that's really interesting. And then I want

543
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 1: you to talk about how much candidate Trump really hurt

544
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:24,719
Speaker 1: defendant Trump.

545
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, the answer is a lot. So in terms

546
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 5: of the pointing, I didn't even see it because when

547
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 5: I'm in court, I'm very formal. I don't turn back

548
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 5: and I was facing forward. But I realized afterwards. I

549
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 5: think a reporter told me that during her rebuttal, Sean Crowley,

550
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 5: who's quite tall and was wearing heels, so she was

551
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 5: super tall every time she mentioned Donald Trump stood and

552
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 5: kind of pointed at it. He would have been to

553
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,479
Speaker 5: her last and apparently he was just like glaring at her,

554
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 5: and she's pointing at him, and it was quite quite something,

555
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 5: very very courageous of her, dramatic.

556
00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 1: I would love you to just talk about what happened

557
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: in the courthouse that you felt like really hurt him.

558
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 5: There's a kind of a way, I think, to reduce,

559
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 5: to concentrate it all down and think about it this

560
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 5: way in this case, which was only about damages and

561
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 5: in which we really focused on all his repeated defamations

562
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 5: of Egene, even those after the verge in the last case,

563
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 5: continuing during this trial, like he would leave the courthouse

564
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 5: and he would go and to fade Egene again, if

565
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 5: that's the subject of the case. And you're basically saying

566
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 5: to the jury, here's a man who's a bully, who

567
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 5: cannot follow the rules, who thinks they don't apply to him.

568
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 5: Acting in the courtroom like a bully who can't follow

569
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 5: the rules is arguably not a great strategy. I think

570
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 5: the anti strategy, that's not a great idea. And so

571
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 5: we were joking the other day, I'm not even sure

572
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 5: Sean and I needed to close. I think we just

573
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 5: like sat down because they saw it all for themselves.

574
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 5: Oh no, and you're closing, moll. And you read this

575
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 5: granscript right.

576
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: Yet no would talk to us about the closing arguments.

577
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 6: Oh, it was brilliantly built, it was movie, it was powerful.

578
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 6: Robbie had the jury in the palm of her hand.

579
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 6: This story is very odd, Molly. They were very intensely

580
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 6: paying attention, but they didn't think it was correct to

581
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 6: look at the attorneys. They were very careful, not together.

582
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 6: They didn't even look at it. During the clothing argument,

583
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 6: they looked at Ross's. Sure they were torturing us because

584
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 6: they literally would not work our way. They would not

585
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 6: let her.

586
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 5: But during their clothing you were aware of Robbie.

587
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 6: Then every once in a while they would look at

588
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 6: you because you could not look away because she was

589
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 6: describing what the man had done. And she told her

590
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 6: riveting story, and of course she was and only just begun.

591
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 6: She so incited him that when you could hear a

592
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 6: pin drop in the courtroom for the closing was so amazing,

593
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 6: when everybody was riveted to her, He stands up and

594
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 6: I don't think he walks out.

595
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 5: He stalked up.

596
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 6: He's stalked up, and Robbie is, of course, as she's

597
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 6: told you, she was outawhere. Judge Chaplin had to say

598
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 6: for the record, he's defendant has left the courtroom, I think,

599
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 6: or he says like that, lots the car, and Robbie

600
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 6: of course doesn't miss a beat. She goes right on

601
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 6: with the next say, she didn't miss her the flow,

602
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 6: She just went on and it was well drawn him

603
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 6: from the road. He did come back for Hoba.

604
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 5: For Hobba, he.

605
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: Left because he was obviously couldn't control himself. Maybe.

606
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 5: I mean, it seems like only about eight minutes into

607
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 5: my clothing, which was an hour, so you know, at

608
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 5: the very beginning.

609
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 1: Wow. And then he came back later.

610
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 5: He came back when I was done to watch Alena

611
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 5: Hobba clothes. And then maybe because they convinced him he

612
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 5: couldn't do it again, he had to stay for Sean

613
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 5: Crowley's rebuttal Yeah.

614
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 2: Oh wow.

615
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 1: Can you just talk to us about his legal representation

616
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 1: because he used to have Joe Tacopina right right the

617
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 1: first trial, Yeah, and then he switched. Was Alena Habba.

618
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 1: The person who should be taking a trial.

619
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 5: Yes I'm not. It's not for me to say, but

620
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 5: I don't think she's had a lot of trial experience.

621
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 5: And Judge Kaplan is a very strict he said it

622
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 5: on the record, a very formal judge who expects lawyers

623
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 5: not only to behave but to do things in the

624
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 5: proper way. And if you don't know how to do

625
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 5: things in the proper way, he loses patience, which he

626
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 5: lost many, many, many times. And she would really talk

627
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 5: to him. I mean, the one thing that was the

628
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 5: most stressful part of it all and why it was

629
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 5: so much crazier than the depositions, is between Trump kind

630
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 5: of shrugging and walking out and making gestures and kind

631
00:34:56,640 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 5: of talking under his breath and Haba directly challenging the

632
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:05,879
Speaker 5: judge in the most obstinate, in disrespectful way. The very

633
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 5: first day, she said to him, I really don't appreciate

634
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 5: how you're speaking to me, but I can't. I have

635
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 5: to tell you, Molly, I can't imagine saying that to

636
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 5: a judge. Yeah, I don't know what drug I would

637
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 5: have to be on to say that to a judge.

638
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 5: So it was always toense because you kind of never

639
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 5: knew when those things were going to happen. Judge Kevin

640
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 5: did an amazing job of keeping his equanimity, but it

641
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 5: was a struggle.

642
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 6: Yeah.

643
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the jury they were protected their anonymous jurors.

644
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 1: This is a pretty unusual thing to do, right, Yeah.

645
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 5: So it's not uncommon in criminal cases, like in terrorism cases,

646
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 5: it happens all the time, but in civil cases it's

647
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 5: very rare. They did it in My Nazi, My Charlott's

648
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 5: Fall Nazi case for similar reason.

649
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 1: Yeah.

650
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 5: I think it was this. Among the many smart decisions

651
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 5: that the judge made, this might have been the smartest

652
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 5: because the jury felt completely safe and completely protected. And

653
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 5: at the end he said to them, you know, I

654
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 5: can't tell you not to speak to the lawyers or

655
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 5: not to expose yourselves, but if I were you, I

656
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 5: would tell you not to My advice you would be

657
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 5: not to do That's not arning. Yeah.

658
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: Wow, it feels so chilling. Robbie, Kaplan, Eji and Carol,

659
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 1: thank you guys so much. Really appreciate you both.

660
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 5: Thank you, Thank you.

661
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 1: Molly. Brian Klass is the author of Fluke, Chance, Chaos

662
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: and Why Everything We Do Matters. Welcome back to Fast

663
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:30,760
Speaker 1: Politics Behind Class.

664
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 7: Thanks for having on the show again.

665
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: Your book is called Fluke, Chance, Chaos and why everything

666
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: we do matters. So explain to us a little bit

667
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 1: about why you got here to write this book.

668
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 7: Yeah, So there's sort of two stories. I mean, one

669
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 7: is I think that the world works this way and

670
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 7: it's swayed by these small shocks that have big consequences

671
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 7: and we just pretend otherwise. So the opening story of

672
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 7: the book is about a vacation that a couple took

673
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 7: to Kyoto, Japan in nineteen twenty six, and the husband

674
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 7: of the couple nineteen years later ends up as the

675
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 7: Secretary of War for the United States, and in nineteen

676
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,279
Speaker 7: forty five he's the chief civilian in charge of word

677
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 7: to drop the atomic bomb, and the target committee basically

678
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,399
Speaker 7: says they want to drop it on Kyoto, and they

679
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 7: send it to Truman and so on, and Stimpson, because

680
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:18,839
Speaker 7: he is the husband of this couple that went there

681
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 7: in nineteen twenty six, because he has a soft spot

682
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 7: for the city, he twice meets with Truman and gets

683
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,280
Speaker 7: it taken off the list. And so the first atomic

684
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 7: bomb dropped on Hiroshima purely because an American government official

685
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 7: went on holiday nineteen years earlier to Kyoto and decided

686
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 7: he didn't want the city destroyed. So, you know, I

687
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 7: think as a political scientist, there's as bad aspect, which

688
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 7: is like the world does shift this way on a

689
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 7: personal level. The sort of origin story of the book

690
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:44,359
Speaker 7: is that there's a story from my family history where

691
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 7: a woman in nineteen oh five in rural Wisconsin had

692
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 7: a mental breakdown and tragically decided to kill her four

693
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 7: children and then kill herself. And her husband came home

694
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 7: and found the whole family dead. And this is my

695
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:00,040
Speaker 7: great grandfather and his first wife. He remarried to my

696
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 7: great grandmother. And the only reason I exist is because

697
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 7: of this mass murder. So I feel like a cosmic accident,

698
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 7: a bit of a fluke, as it were.

699
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 1: But the Jesus, this is pretty rough.

700
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 5: No.

701
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 7: But the really strange thing about this is like, you know, Molly,

702
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 7: like we wouldn't be talking if these kids didn't get killed, right,

703
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 7: And I think like that's the thing that we ignore,

704
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 7: Like there's all these ripple effects in politics, in society

705
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 7: and in our own lives, which is why I talk

706
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 7: about chaos theory in the book a lot. But it's like,

707
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 7: you know, when we tell the stories of politics when

708
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 7: we go on MSNBC, as both of us do, to

709
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,279
Speaker 7: explain politics, like it's always big reasons for big events, right,

710
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 7: And I think there's a lot of ripple effects that

711
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 7: are sort of lurking there that explain the world better

712
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:40,280
Speaker 7: often than the sort of obvious variables. Because you wouldn't

713
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,879
Speaker 7: imagine that the vacation history of a government official would

714
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 7: cause the atomic bomb to land on one city rather

715
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 7: than another.

716
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean for sure, true, and I think important.

717
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 1: So we look at right now, I mean I guess yeah,

718
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 1: you could say like the World War one, right, was

719
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 1: started by a fluke, right archduke, world War two? Right?

720
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 1: I mean there are there are all these different things

721
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 1: that are started. You know, we don't know what things

722
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 1: will lead to. It's interesting. So now when we look

723
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:15,320
Speaker 1: at Trump and trump Ism, do we see that there's

724
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 1: like it doesn't feel like a fluke led us to

725
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 1: trump Ism as much as just like a continual hostility

726
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: of a group of people who liked Trump's racism and

727
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 1: economic populism.

728
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 7: I think there are flukes that we can see very

729
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,280
Speaker 7: clearly with Trump, though, I mean one of them. For example,

730
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 7: is there speculation that he decided to run for president

731
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:38,280
Speaker 7: in twenty eleven when the White House correspondence dinner happened.

732
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 1: I knew you were going to say that when Obama

733
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 1: was making those jokes.

734
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 7: Right, yeah, and Obama humiliated him. You know what this

735
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 7: is true or not, I don't know, but that's one possibility.

736
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 7: So maybe he doesn't run. Then you get to the

737
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 7: twenty sixteen election. Right, You've got like, you know, seventy

738
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,720
Speaker 7: eighty thousand votes that decide the race in three states.

739
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:58,360
Speaker 7: And part of the reason why the FBI investigation is

740
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 7: reopened is because of Anthony Wiener. If this doesn't happen,

741
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,280
Speaker 7: maybe Komi doesn't make his statement, maybe Clinton narrowly wins,

742
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:06,959
Speaker 7: and then we have a totally different narrative, right because

743
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 7: like Brexit then becomes the outlier of populism and it's

744
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 7: like the high water mark of it, and we say, oh, well,

745
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 7: but then Clinton wins is like the establishment figures maybe

746
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 7: populism is dead. I mean, there's all these things where

747
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 7: a lot of things pivot on very small, narrow outcomes,

748
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 7: and you know, there's some really strange stuff too. I

749
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 7: talk about this in the book briefly, and it's a

750
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 7: little bit in the weeds. But if you look at

751
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 7: the twenty twenty election results, there's this little swoop across Georgia,

752
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 7: this blue swoop in the counties where Biden basically racks

753
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 7: up enough votes to win. And also the Democrats end

754
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 7: up winning in Georgia in the Senate and control the Senate.

755
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:40,760
Speaker 7: That crescent shape that if you look up the county

756
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 7: level election results, it is literally caused by an ancient

757
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 7: inland sea at the time of the dinosaurs, because there

758
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 7: was fhytoplankton that lived there and they died and became

759
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,399
Speaker 7: really rich soil. So when slavery was established, they put

760
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 7: all the plantations on this swoop and then all of

761
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 7: the enslaved people were brought there and then they were

762
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,320
Speaker 7: freed and they stayed there. And this is where a

763
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 7: lot of the black population in Georgia lives that votes Democrat.

764
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 7: So you know, I mean, there's all these things where

765
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 7: if you take the long sweep of history, yeah, you

766
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:10,839
Speaker 7: can see geological contingencies and so on, but there's also

767
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 7: aspects about you know, I think what we do as

768
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 7: pundits or analysts is we stitch history backwards. So like

769
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 7: something happens like oh, this was inevitable. Trump was always

770
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 7: going to rise because of these undercurrents. But if he'd

771
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 7: lost in twenty sixteen, there would have a really different America,

772
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 7: I think, And so you know, there could have been

773
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 7: this this backlash to Trump is in this sort of

774
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 7: condemnation in the Republican Party saying, oh, well, he was

775
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 7: never going to win anyway, and then maybe the party

776
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 7: isn't authoritarian and overly racist, right, So you know, I

777
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 7: think there's a lot of these moments in history where

778
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 7: it could have pivoted slightly differently. And that's, you know,

779
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 7: not to mention the fact that Trump was sort of

780
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 7: made into this kingpin, celebrity apprentice guy when actually he.

781
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 2: Was a business failure.

782
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 7: If somebody they picked somebody else, maybe he doesn't rise,

783
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:54,399
Speaker 7: you know. So I think basically what happens is when

784
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 7: you try to make sense of politics, you are told

785
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 7: to look for big causes for big effects that are

786
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 7: really oppos and I think that when you look in

787
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 7: detail at history, that very quickly falls apart. As we

788
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 7: all know in our own lives, right, and we've seen

789
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 7: all these little happenstance moments. I think the really bewildering

790
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 7: thing is the stuff that we don't ever see, right,

791
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:14,720
Speaker 7: like the stuff in our lives, like the sliding doors

792
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 7: sort of moments where or you hit the snooze button

793
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 7: and your life might unfold slightly differently. You can only

794
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 7: observe the life you live. And I think that's true

795
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 7: for politics as well.

796
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's super interesting. And yeah for exit, yeah, I

797
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 1: wonder about that too. And Trump, you know, he did

798
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 1: manage to the electoral college itself feels very flugish because

799
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 1: we've now seen this happen a bunch of times where

800
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 1: a candidate has won the electoral college and lost the

801
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 1: popular vote and gone on to be president, which is

802
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:50,399
Speaker 1: just completely strange. The fluke thing I always think about

803
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 1: is like, this is so sick. But I think, what

804
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 1: if Mitt Romney had won. I didn't like Mitt Romney

805
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 1: at the time, but now I think, like Mitt Romney

806
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:03,280
Speaker 1: had president, perhaps you know that the Republican Party wouldn't

807
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:04,320
Speaker 1: have lost its mind.

808
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 7: Yeah, so you know, I think I think that's definitely

809
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 7: a fair counterfactual to consider. And he probably if he'd won,

810
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 7: he would have been the nominee in twenty sixteen almost certainly, right,

811
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 7: So then that would have knocked out Trump in twenty sixteen.

812
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 7: I think what's really striking if you look at the

813
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 7: twenty first century, though, is that our politics and our

814
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:21,839
Speaker 7: lives have been just like walloped over and over and

815
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 7: over by these shocks, right, Like you look at the

816
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 7: twenty first centuries nine to eleven, the Iraq War, the

817
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 7: financial crisis, the Arab Spring, which was started by literally

818
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 7: lighting himself on fire in central Tunisia. Then you have

819
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 7: you know, Brexit Trump, the pandemic started by a mutated

820
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 7: virus infecting one person in China, and then you have

821
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 7: you know, Gaza and Ukraine and so on and sort

822
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 7: of these constant upheavals. And I think the thing that

823
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 7: you know, I argue in Fluke as well, is that

824
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 7: we've engineered a system that's that's really prone to this, right,

825
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 7: because we've set up systems where like the world operates

826
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 7: with no slack. Probably the best example this was a

827
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 7: couple of years ago when a gust of wind hit

828
00:43:57,000 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 7: a boat in the Suez Canal and twisted sideways, you know,

829
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 7: wiped out fifty four billion dollars of economic output. And

830
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 7: it's like, you know, from like one boat, you know,

831
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 7: So I think I think this stuff like you know,

832
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 7: Trump's presidency also pivots to a large degree on COVID

833
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 7: or January sixth. You know what, if they had taken

834
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 7: it a bit more seriously and had sort of broken

835
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 7: it up, or they didn't allow the protest movement to

836
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 7: even get started or whatever, or if January sixth, there's

837
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,239
Speaker 7: a great contingency here where the guys with the zip

838
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 7: ties they get really close. Let's imagine they actually get

839
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 7: somebody who's in Congress or in the Senate and kill them.

840
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,400
Speaker 7: Does that mean that Trump can rebound the way he

841
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 7: has in twenty twenty four, I mean maybe, but maybe

842
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 7: not right. So, I think this is all these things

843
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 7: where these split second changes or small changes Anthony Wiener's

844
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 7: celfo or a joke about you know Trump in twenty eleven.

845
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 7: I think we just write that out as noise, and

846
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 7: the wisdom, the received wisdom you get is like, you know,

847
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 7: ignore the noise, focus on the signal. And I'm not

848
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 7: sure that's a good idea. I think there's a lot

849
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 7: of stuff in our politics that is swayed by noise.

850
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in for sure. I think that last statement

851
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 1: that there's a lot of stuff in our politics that's

852
00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 1: swayed by noise is for sure, Troe. So let's talk

853
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: about that noise right now. There's a lot of anxiety.

854
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: My personal anxiety is that I am missing stories, that

855
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 1: I am missing part of the world because I am

856
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 1: not getting the news that everybody else is, or I'm

857
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 1: not getting enough of it. It's kind of nots but

858
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:20,720
Speaker 1: I have a lot of anxiety about the siloed nature

859
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 1: of the world. Now, Am I right? Am I wrong?

860
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:24,839
Speaker 1: I mean, talk to me about that.

861
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:27,880
Speaker 7: One of the biggest problems that we've embedded into American

862
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 7: politics is that we have totally different information pipelines depending

863
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 7: on who we are, right, And like, I think this

864
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:37,200
Speaker 7: is where the United States has a totally broken system

865
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:40,239
Speaker 7: that is going to have generational consequences, not just trump Ism,

866
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 7: but that will outlast Trump probably. And it's something you know,

867
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 7: I can say, as you know, I live in the UK,

868
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 7: I come back to the US every so often. I

869
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 7: flip on you know, Fox News and Newsmax to see

870
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 7: what's going on. There's just nothing like that in the

871
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 7: developed democracies and the rest of the world. And the

872
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 7: sort of propaganda that does exist on the airwaves in

873
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 7: the United States is something that I think has also

874
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 7: embedded risk in this because you think about like QAnon,

875
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 7: for example, and fifty percent of American Republicans now say

876
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:10,879
Speaker 7: that they believe at least one plank of QAnon. I mean,

877
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 7: one of those people is going to do something really crazy,

878
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 7: and some of them already have.

879
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 4: Right.

880
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 7: A guy tried to like blow up the Hoover dam

881
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 7: at one point and thankfully didn't succeed based on QAnon belief.

882
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 7: Not to mention the Pizzagate incidenta the guy tried to

883
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 7: shoot up the pizza joint, Right, So there's I think

884
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 7: there's all these things where like we have this illusion

885
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 7: of order because we've avoided some of the catastrophes that

886
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 7: could have happened. But you know, I think some of

887
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 7: that's luck. I think some of that is just like

888
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 7: all the ingredients are there, we've sort of designed a tinderbox,

889
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 7: and then we're just hoping a spark doesn't fly. And

890
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 7: I think, you know, this is the stuff where what

891
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 7: I'm talking about with this sort of design of systems

892
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 7: and the proneness to flukes today is like, you know,

893
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 7: the Arab spring was a place where everybody was on edge.

894
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 7: I mean, all the people were restless and angry about

895
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 7: the dictatorships. One guy lights himself on fire, and all

896
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 7: of a sudden, you have a civil war in Syria

897
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 7: with hundreds of thousands of people dying, multiple regimes collapse.

898
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 7: And so my point is that, like you know, I

899
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 7: think we've set up these systems that are just super

900
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,360
Speaker 7: super prone to shocks, and the mistake we make is

901
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 7: imagining they're like an outlier that's some weird thing that

902
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 7: we couldn't have foreseen. I think we've designed systems that

903
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 7: when the noise of life gets into the system, it

904
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 7: actually creates these massive consequences. So, you know, that is

905
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 7: something I worry about. The information pipelines is one that

906
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 7: amplifies it. And I think you're right to worry that

907
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 7: we all get a little slice of reality because we

908
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 7: exist in information bubbles.

909
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, when you got back to America this time, we

910
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 1: had dinner and we were chatting, and you said that

911
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 1: you felt like America was a little bit scarier even

912
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 1: than it had been a couple of years ago when

913
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 1: you were here the last time. Can you talk about that.

914
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, you know, it's something that's really striking.

915
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 7: I've lived abroad for almost thirteen years now, and every

916
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 7: time I go home, which is multiple times a year,

917
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 7: I'm just struck by social dysfunction in a way that

918
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 7: is totally alien in many parts of Europe. It's not

919
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 7: Europe or Britain is like some paragon of good governance. Obviously, Like,

920
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:00,440
Speaker 7: you know, things are messed up really bad here.

921
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 1: Now you have bracs At, you have Richie Sudac, We

922
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 1: often have Ian Dunstan here to tell us just about

923
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 1: how fucked up you guys are.

924
00:48:07,760 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 7: But yes, continue, yeah, so there are there are problems,

925
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 7: but like you know, I mean, the way I always

926
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 7: explains to people is the British version of Anthony Fauci

927
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 7: is named Chris Whitty, and he's like universally regarded as

928
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 7: a hero. In the UK, almost everybody got vaccinated and

929
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 7: just sort of followed the rules. We like had this

930
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 7: tradition where everyone went out on their doorsteps and clapped

931
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:27,479
Speaker 7: for the nurses for.

932
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: Like months, right, yeah.

933
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:30,879
Speaker 7: Now, I went home to the US in like twenty

934
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 7: twenty one, and it was like this extreme polarization where

935
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 7: you could see whether someone is a Democrat or Republican

936
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 7: based on whether they were wearing a mask and then

937
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 7: also like Anthony Fauci is like at credible risk of

938
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 7: being murdered, and you know, these are like little canaries

939
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 7: in the coal mine. But it's also like just the

940
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 7: visibility of partisanship where you know, you have these flags

941
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 7: everywhere of you know, Trump or also all sorts of

942
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 7: things where everything about like a lot of people's lives

943
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 7: is sort of their identity is fused with partisanship, and

944
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 7: it's just an it's like an angrier culture sure than

945
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:02,200
Speaker 7: what I'm used to in the UK. So you know,

946
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:04,240
Speaker 7: I do worry about that because it's long term stuff.

947
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 7: I mean, this is not just like you know, Trump

948
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 7: goes away and then everything's fine. I think there's sort

949
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 7: of a like a vitriol in American politics, an undercurrent

950
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 7: of violence that is just so not in many parts

951
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 7: of other rich democracies in the world.

952
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 1: Basically quite actually quite scary in my mind. I mean,

953
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 1: I mean, is Fox News to blame or is it

954
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 1: this sort of right wing media eco system.

955
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,919
Speaker 7: I mean, I think it's a combination of right wing

956
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 7: media and politicians who effectively inside violence. I mean, this

957
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:40,799
Speaker 7: is the big difference, right, Like there's decorum in politics

958
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 7: in the UK not perfect. Boris Johnson broke a lot

959
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 7: of rules. But if Boris Johnson said that, you know,

960
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 7: the top general in the UK maybe should be killed

961
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 7: for treason like Trump did with Mark Milly, it would

962
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 7: not just be the end of his political career, he

963
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,880
Speaker 7: would be shunned by every single politician in his own party.

964
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 7: And I think this is the sort of stuff where

965
00:49:57,640 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 7: like you just don't see it because it's like, you know,

966
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 7: it's the terrible of the frog boiling or whatever in

967
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 7: the boiling water. It's like, I think a lot of

968
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:06,879
Speaker 7: Americans are just like numbed to the fact that it's

969
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:08,920
Speaker 7: gotten so insane. I mean, I look at this stuff

970
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 7: from over here and there's just a constant stream of

971
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 7: the most insane stories and the most insane rhetoric, and

972
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 7: you know, it's just beyond any sort of discourse that

973
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:21,839
Speaker 7: exists in the UK. And I'm not trying to pump

974
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 7: up the UK too much because I say there's a

975
00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 7: lot of problems, but like I mean, Boris Johnson got

976
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 7: knocked out office because he had some people over during

977
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:32,440
Speaker 7: COVID and Liz Trusts, you know, when she tanked the economy,

978
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,840
Speaker 7: she had a nine percent I mean, she had a

979
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 7: nine percent approval radium was ousted in forty nine days.

980
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 7: I mean, Trump has had a forty percent approval rating

981
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:42,760
Speaker 7: since twenty sixteen. Right, It's like nothing he does matters

982
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 7: in terms of his approval. So, you know, I am

983
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 7: worried about that. Where like people don't change their minds

984
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 7: in the US, and the vitriol is so extreme, and

985
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 7: the sort of toxic environment of right wing cable news

986
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 7: and so on and propaganda lets along with this sort

987
00:50:57,239 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 7: of vile rhetoric of Republicans calling for violence, that's this.

988
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 7: It's a cocktail made for political violence. And I think

989
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,640
Speaker 7: that as someone who studies political violence is part of

990
00:51:06,680 --> 00:51:10,439
Speaker 7: my job, my diagnosis of why there hasn't been worse

991
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 7: violence is that we are lucky.

992
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, that doesn't make me feel better.

993
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 7: No, I know, I mean, but this is this is

994
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 7: my honest assessment. Like I think, I think we have

995
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 7: every single ingredient for like severe political violence and assassinations

996
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 7: and so on. I'm surprised that hasn't happened. I hope

997
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 7: it never happens. I hope that this is something where

998
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 7: I'm completely wrong about it. But we have politicians stoking

999
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:33,719
Speaker 7: hatred you have extreme media polarization where people don't even

1000
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 7: agree on reality anymore. You have four hundred million guns

1001
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 7: for a population of three hundred and thirty million people.

1002
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 7: I mean, you have this rhetoric that says that Democrats

1003
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 7: are communists who are trying to basically kidnap your children

1004
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:47,799
Speaker 7: if you're a que non believer, for sexual gratification, or

1005
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,720
Speaker 7: just that they're trying to destroy America because they believe

1006
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 7: that China is, like you know, better than you know,

1007
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 7: the best thing since fly spread. Those delusions are ones

1008
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 7: that cause people to act, and so, you know, bringing

1009
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:01,279
Speaker 7: it back to that sense of the flukes and the contingencies,

1010
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 7: I think we're just sort of in that tinderbox moment,

1011
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 7: and I'm really worried about how twenty twenty four is

1012
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 7: going to play out. I know it's not comforting, but

1013
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 7: it is something where the dynamics are so dysfunctional. I'm

1014
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 7: frankly surprised that there hasn't been worse violence in the

1015
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 7: United States. So I would be shocked if twenty twenty

1016
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:18,160
Speaker 7: four unfold without any political violence.

1017
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:20,839
Speaker 1: Well, that was really upsetting. Tell us how we put

1018
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 1: the genie back on the bottle.

1019
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 7: The number one thing is electoral defeat. Eventually, this will

1020
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 7: focus the mind of Republicans and it's what needs to happen.

1021
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 7: It hasn't happened throughout these last several electoral defeats, but

1022
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 7: I think that like a resounding rejection of the sort

1023
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 7: of extremism, violent rhetoric and trump Ism is the first

1024
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 7: step to getting the party, the Republican Party, back from

1025
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 7: the brink of this like full on embrace of authoritary

1026
00:52:43,719 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 7: and violent extremism and barring that, I really worry about it.

1027
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 7: So I think there's a way that this can happen.

1028
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 7: I think it's why everyone's actions in twenty twenty four

1029
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 7: are so important, because this is the most important election

1030
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 7: I think in modern history, and the effects of it

1031
00:52:56,640 --> 00:53:00,160
Speaker 7: could be very positive if the outcome is resounding, and

1032
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 7: it could be so, you know, my hope is that

1033
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 7: there will be a resounding rejection of this and it

1034
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 7: will start to dial back this rhetoric and make consequences

1035
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:10,280
Speaker 7: for those who embrace the sort of rhetoric of violence.

1036
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:18,320
Speaker 1: Thanks Brian, There no moment full Jesse Cannon.

1037
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:23,880
Speaker 4: Uh oh, Molly, I'm feeling vibes. I think they're impeach

1038
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 4: bit whoa this is strange. I'm feeling vibes. What do

1039
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 4: you What do you feel about here?

1040
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 1: It's a vibes based impeachment. Just like in succession. We

1041
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:37,480
Speaker 1: can agree these are not here as people. The Republicans

1042
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:41,360
Speaker 1: in the House of Representatives, fresh off trying to impeach

1043
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 1: Joe Biden non vibes, have moved on to impeach Alejandro

1044
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 1: myiorcis on vibes. Let me just say two things here.

1045
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:53,280
Speaker 1: You cannot impeach someone because you don't like them. That's

1046
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 1: not how any of this works. They had a conservative lawyer,

1047
00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 1: Jonathan Turley, who said, you can't impeach people people for

1048
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 1: not liking how they're doing their job. It has to

1049
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:09,320
Speaker 1: actually be an impeachable event. But God forbid Republicans ever

1050
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 1: do anything that makes any sense, and for that they

1051
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 1: feature prominently House Republicans. Yet again, are our moment of

1052
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 1: fuck Gray. That's it for this episode of Fast Politics.

1053
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 1: Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to hear the

1054
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:29,920
Speaker 1: best minds in politics make sense of all this chaos.

1055
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 1: If you enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to

1056
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 1: a friend and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks

1057
00:54:36,200 --> 00:54:36,840
Speaker 1: for listening.