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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 2: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: We begin in Iowa, where Donald Trump has cruised to

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Speaker 3: victory in the first in the nation Republican Caucasus. Now

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Speaker 3: the former president is calling on his rivals to drop out.

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Speaker 4: And I really think this is time now for everybody

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Speaker 4: our country to come together. We want to come together,

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Speaker 4: whether it's Republican or a Democrat, or a liberal or conservative.

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Speaker 4: It would be so nice if we could come together

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Speaker 4: and straighten out the world, and straighten out the problems,

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Speaker 4: and straighten out all of the death and destruction that

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Speaker 4: we're witnessing.

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Speaker 3: The former president won the Hawkeye state with fifty one

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Speaker 3: percent of the vote. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in

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Speaker 3: a distant second with twenty one point three percent. That's

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Speaker 3: after Poul suggested he had dropped a third place before

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Speaker 3: caucus night.

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Speaker 5: In spite of all of that that they threw out us,

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Speaker 5: everyone against us, we've got our ticket punched out of Iowa.

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Speaker 3: Governor DeSantis came in just ahead of Nicky Haley with

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Speaker 3: nineteen point one percent of the vote. Entrepreneur Vivik Graham

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Speaker 3: Oswami dropped out of the race and endorse Trump after

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Speaker 3: finishing fourth well Nathan.

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Speaker 2: The resounding victory sets up the former president very well.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis explains how the nomination race

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Speaker 2: could now unfold for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 6: If Trump does run the table and gets both Iowa

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Speaker 6: New Hampshire a really unusual thing, then he's got four

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Speaker 6: weeks to consolidate his hold on South Carolina. And we've

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Speaker 6: seen early polling the campaign hasn't gotten to South Carolina yet,

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Speaker 6: so it's not reflective of a real campaign. But right

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Speaker 6: now he's twenty points ahead of Nicki Haley, who calls

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Speaker 6: it home. So and then after that, the really next

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Speaker 6: big thing is Super Tuesday, So he could actually walk

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Speaker 6: into Super Tuesday basically unchallenged at that point.

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Speaker 2: And Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis says a Trump presidential

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Speaker 2: victory could result in sweeping changes for US policies on trade,

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Speaker 2: over sees, conflicts, taxes, and civil rights.

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Speaker 3: Karen Donald Trump's victory will be the talk of the town.

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Speaker 3: At the World Economic Forum in Davos today, President Biden

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Speaker 3: is once again skipping the event. Microsoft CEO Satia Nadella

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Speaker 3: is in Davos. He talked to us about the importance

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Speaker 3: of election integrity.

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Speaker 7: Misinformation and election interference is going to be a real

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Speaker 7: challenge that we all have to tackle. Me as a

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Speaker 7: company have to do our best work right whether in

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Speaker 7: the context of AI. We have lots of initiatives around

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Speaker 7: content IDs and other things that will then help us.

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Speaker 3: On a separate note, Microsoft CEO Satia Nodella said he

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Speaker 3: wants good governance and steadiness at OpenAI, but he says

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Speaker 3: he's not worried about the company's nonprofit structure and doesn't

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Speaker 3: want greater control over his partner Well.

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Speaker 2: Nathan out to the latest developments in the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: around has attacked what it's said was an Israeli spy

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Speaker 2: base in a rock with missiles. If true, it would

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Speaker 2: be the first direct strike on Israeli interest since this

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Speaker 2: started the war in Gaza, and a move that escalates

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Speaker 2: the regent's conflicts. Israel is not commented and rarely does

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Speaker 2: with such incidents and.

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Speaker 3: Who the militants have attacked a US owned containership in

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Speaker 3: the Red Sea Karen. That vessel was hit by a

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Speaker 3: ballistic missile but avoided significant damage or injuries to the crew.

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Speaker 3: This latest attack in the Red Sea comes after American

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Speaker 3: and British forces bonded the hoof He's in an effort

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Speaker 3: to deter them from disrupting global shipping.

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Speaker 2: Well to Wall Street Now and Nathan Bank earnings kickoff

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Speaker 2: this holiday shortened trading week with Goldman Sachs and Morgan

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Speaker 2: Stanley reporting before the opening bell. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst

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Speaker 2: Alison Williams says she'll be watching how the trading desks

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Speaker 2: performed in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 8: Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the two top players

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Speaker 8: in that business. Goldman was the leader, Morgan Stanley sort

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Speaker 8: of took that position for several years, but now Goldman

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Speaker 8: Sachs is sort of back in the lead, and so

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Speaker 8: I think that's that's something that investors are watching for,

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Speaker 8: you know, more of the interest of bragging rights because

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Speaker 8: as the top two players, they are profitable in those businesses.

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Speaker 2: And Bloomberg and Eligence senior analyst Allison Williams says investment

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Speaker 2: banking fees and the outlook for a twenty twenty four

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Speaker 2: recovery will be a focus for these banks.

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Speaker 3: Hearin retirement savers are putting more money into stocks. That's

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Speaker 3: among the findings of a new Bloomberg survey, and we

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Speaker 3: get more in this report from Bloomberg's John Tucker, John.

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Speaker 9: And Nathan latest Bloomberg Marcus Live Pulse survey finds almost

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Speaker 9: half the respondents that they were putting more funds into stocks.

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Speaker 9: It's a response to rising prices. Real estate and commodities

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Speaker 9: are among the other choices, but shares of companies whose

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Speaker 9: earnings are expended to rise with prices were clearly the

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Speaker 9: preferred option. Now, this potentially offers a long term tailwind

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Speaker 9: for stocks as societies get older. Now, this doesn't necessarily

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Speaker 9: make stocks the right choice to counter inflation. You'll remember

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Speaker 9: in the inflation are in nineteen seventies, stocks were the

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Speaker 9: worst performing acid in real terms. I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: All right, John, thanks well. In company news, Apple as

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Speaker 2: we're moving up blood oxygen feature from its latest smart

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Speaker 2: watches to get around a US band stemming from a

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Speaker 2: pen dispute with the Massimo had ruled in October that

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Speaker 2: Apple's devices violated Massimo patents related to blood oxygen measurement

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Speaker 2: that led Apple to pause sales with the smart watches.

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Speaker 2: Just ahead of Christmas, though an interim stay allow the

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Speaker 2: company to bring the products back late last month.

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Speaker 3: And Elon Musk says he is uncomfortable growing Tesla's AI

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Speaker 3: capacity without a larger share of voting control. The automaker's

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Speaker 3: currently investing more than a billion dollars into its Dojo

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Speaker 3: supercomputer product and working to develop humanoid robots, but in

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Speaker 3: a post on his social platform x, Musk said without

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Speaker 3: twenty five percent of voting control in Tesla, he'd prefer

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Speaker 3: to develop products independently.

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Speaker 2: And Nathan Microsoft is opening up its artificial intelligence assistant

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Speaker 2: to consumers and making the corporate aversion available to smaller companies.

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Speaker 2: It's all part of an effort to increase the number

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Speaker 2: of paying customers for the new services. Microsoft is selling

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Speaker 2: a twenty dollars a month consumer version of Copilot with

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Speaker 2: access to open AI's latest chat, GPT technology, and image

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Speaker 2: creation features. If a look at some of the other

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Speaker 2: stories making news around the world. For that, we're joined

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Speaker 2: by Bloomberg's Amy Moore's Amy Good Morning.

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Speaker 10: Good Morning, Karen. Most of the East Coast now has

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Speaker 10: been without snow for a couple of years until now.

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Speaker 10: The Midwest also dealing with some dangerously cold temperatures. Let's

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Speaker 10: get more from Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Carolyn.

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Speaker 11: Week area of low pressure bringing some snow to areas

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Speaker 11: that haven't really seen a whole lot of snow over

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Speaker 11: the last two years. We're having some snow this morning

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Speaker 11: in the Baltimore area, but it'll be ending the New

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Speaker 11: York City area. We'll see the light snow end by

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Speaker 11: early afternoon, and Boston light snow will continue throughout the

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Speaker 11: day and and during the evening. Looks like the Boston

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Speaker 11: area picks up an inch or two before it mixes

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Speaker 11: a little bit of rain. An additional intro so possible

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Speaker 11: in the New York City area, very little additional accumulation

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Speaker 11: around the district in Baltimore. Also, looks like the cold

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Speaker 11: in the Upper Midwest will continue for a while longer,

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Speaker 11: and then it shifts east this weekend.

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Speaker 10: And we continue to track the winter weather, and we'll

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Speaker 10: hear from Rob throughout the morning here on Bloomberg Now.

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Speaker 10: We've been telling you about the results of the Iowa

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Speaker 10: Caucus and part of the fallout, entrepreneur vivek Ramaswami is

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Speaker 10: dropping out of the for president.

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Speaker 12: As of this moment, we are going to suspend this

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Speaker 12: presidential campaign, and this is going to have to be.

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Speaker 12: There is no path for me to be the next

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Speaker 12: president absent things that we don't want to see happen

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Speaker 12: in this country.

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Speaker 10: Namaswami suspended his bid after a disappointing showing in the

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Speaker 10: Iowa caucus, deciding instead to throw his support to former

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Speaker 10: President Trump, who was declared the winner last night. He

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Speaker 10: told his supporters there are two America First candidates and

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Speaker 10: that he called Trump earlier in the evening to congratulate

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Speaker 10: and endorse him. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin out of

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Speaker 10: the hospital and recovering now. The Pentagon says he was

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Speaker 10: released from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center yesterday. He

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Speaker 10: was admitted the hospital two weeks ago from complications from

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Speaker 10: prostate cancer surgery. Three shows dominated the Emmys last night.

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Speaker 10: The HBO drama Succession won six awards, including Best Drama Series.

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Speaker 10: Effx Is The Bear won Best Colum had won several

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Speaker 10: acting honors. Netflix Limited series Beef won five trophies at

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Speaker 10: last night ceremony. Quenta Brunson's win for Comedy was the

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Speaker 10: first for a female block actor in more than forty years.

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Speaker 10: Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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Speaker 10: want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Amy Morrison. This

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Speaker 10: is Bloomberg Karen.

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Speaker 2: All right, Amy, thank you. What we do bring you

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Speaker 2: news throughout the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. But now,

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Speaker 2: as Amy said, you can get the latest news on demand,

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Speaker 2: and that means whenever you want it. Just subscribe to

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Now and you can get the latest headlines

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Speaker 2: right at the click of a button. Get informed on

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Speaker 2: your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg and

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Speaker 2: News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com

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Speaker 2: plus Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update, Here's John stash Hour, John.

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Speaker 5: Karen An NFL put out doubleheader on a Monday. The

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Speaker 5: Buffalo game, of course, moved from Sunday because of all

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Speaker 5: the snow there, and they did shovel away at least

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Speaker 5: much of the snow in the stands and the fans

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Speaker 5: were able to see the Bills defeat Pittsburgh thirty one

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Speaker 5: to seventeen. Bills jumped in front twenty one to nothing

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Speaker 5: and held on. Josh Allen threw for two touchdowns, also

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Speaker 5: had a fifty two yard TV run. The Bills were

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Speaker 5: six and six, they've won six in a row and

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Speaker 5: they will host Kansas City on Sunday night. The Tampa

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Speaker 5: Bay Bucks were four and seven. Since then they've gone

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Speaker 5: six and one. Meanwhile, Philadelphia was ten and one, closed

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Speaker 5: out the season going one and six. It was all

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Speaker 5: Bucks last night, thirty two to nine. Baker Mayfield through

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Speaker 5: for three hundred and thirty seven yards three touchdowns. They

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Speaker 5: covered twenty three, forty four and fifty six yards and

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Speaker 5: now the Bucks get ready to play the Lions in

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Speaker 5: Detroit on Sunday. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick is a coaching free

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Speaker 5: agent and he has had his first job interview, and

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Speaker 5: it's with the Atlanta Falcons. That's, of course, the team

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Speaker 5: the Patriots had the big comeback against in Super Bowl

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Speaker 5: fifty one. Falcons not a particularly good team under five

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Speaker 5: hundred that they do not have a good quarterback. Belichick's sons,

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Speaker 5: Steve and Brian, who were both the assistance to him

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Speaker 5: in New England, have been told by Giron Mayo, who

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Speaker 5: replaced Beeblechick as a new head coach, that they can

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Speaker 5: remain with the Pats Jim Harbaugh had an interview with

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Speaker 5: the La Chargers. Celtics went to thirty one to nine.

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Speaker 5: They wanted Toronto one O five to ninety six. The

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Speaker 5: Wizard lost to lowly Detroit at home, and the Warrior

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Speaker 5: struggles continue. They lost in Memphis. Just dashaward Bloomberg's.

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Speaker 13: Plots from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 13: Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Syrias exam the

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Speaker 13: Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 13: Good morning.

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Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump's front runner status in the twenty twenty four

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Speaker 3: Republican presidential race now appears sealed. That's after the former

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Speaker 3: president cruise to victory in last night's Iowa caucuses, with

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Speaker 3: many news organizations calling the race before some caucus sites

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Speaker 3: even opened in the Hawkeye state. For some morning after analysis,

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Speaker 3: we are joined by Greg Valier, the chief US policy

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Speaker 3: strategist at AGF Investments. Greg, Good morning. When we listen

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Speaker 3: to former President Trump's victory speech, he sounded like a

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Speaker 3: candidate who's sealed up the nomination.

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Speaker 13: Has he?

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Speaker 14: Oh? I think he has? Nathan, Maybe we go until

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Speaker 14: March fifth, which is super Tuesday. I think after March fifth,

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Speaker 14: Trump will be the presumptive nominee.

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Speaker 3: Why do you think he's not the presumptive nominee necessarily?

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Speaker 14: Now, well, let's see how New Hampshire turns out. It's

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Speaker 14: possible Nikki Haley could have a strong second. Let's see

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Speaker 14: how South Carolina turns out a couple of weeks later,

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Speaker 14: where Haley could do well. But I'd out of caution.

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Speaker 14: I will say maybe this goes until March fifth, but

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Speaker 14: I don't think it's going any longer.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So, coming out of the Iowa caucuses, the former

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Speaker 3: president had more than double the previous record when it

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Speaker 3: comes to the margin of victory, coming in nearly thirty

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Speaker 3: points ahead of Ron DeSantis. But turnout in this race

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Speaker 3: was as low as it's been in more than a

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Speaker 3: decade by some counts, as low as it's been in

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Speaker 3: a quarter century. I mean, what does that tell you

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Speaker 3: about where things stand in the race now?

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Speaker 14: I think it shows as a lot of people have

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Speaker 14: commented that Donald Trump's supporters would walk over broken glass

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Speaker 14: to go to a polling place to vote for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 14: His base is really adamantly in favor of him.

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Speaker 3: Well, what about Ron DeSantis? The polls coming into this

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Speaker 3: caucus appeared as though he might slip to third place,

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Speaker 3: but he managed to squeak out second. Does he have

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Speaker 3: momentum now?

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Speaker 14: Not a lot. I mean it was still a fairly

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Speaker 14: week second. And I think that DeSantis is in trouble

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Speaker 14: in New Hampshire. I think Nicky Haley will have a

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Speaker 14: fairly good night in New Hampshire next week, but DeSantis

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Speaker 14: is on really thin ice right now.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so how about Nicki Haley? You mentioned that she

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Speaker 3: could have a good night in New Hampshire. How do

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Speaker 3: you see things playing out in New Hampshire a week

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Speaker 3: from today?

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Speaker 14: Yeah, I don't think Trump will get fifty percent like

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Speaker 14: he did last night. I think he got fifty one

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Speaker 14: last night. I think it'll be closer, but I think

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Speaker 14: Trump will still win. Then South Carolina a couple weeks

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Speaker 14: later could be really interesting because of course Haley is

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Speaker 14: from South Carolina, but Trump is very popular there. I

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Speaker 14: just don't see a big opening left for Desantus.

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Speaker 3: So with the race heading into New Hampshire next week,

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Speaker 3: South Carolina the week after that, going into Super Tuesday,

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Speaker 3: you don't see it as necessarily being a long slog.

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Speaker 3: But how does this race shape President Trump? Former President

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Speaker 3: Trump up for a general election contest? Should he be

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Speaker 3: thinking about the general election at this point?

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Speaker 14: Yeah, the general election looks roughly tied, Paul. Some poles

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Speaker 14: showed Trump ahead by two or behind by two. A

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Speaker 14: lot of wildcards, Nathan, whether it's immigration. You look at

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Speaker 14: the Chinese election this past weekend, you look at a

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Speaker 14: need to support Ukraine, you look at what's happening right

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Speaker 14: now in the Red Sea. There's a lot of big

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Speaker 14: wildcards still to play out.

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Speaker 3: And how should President Biden be reacting to this result?

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Speaker 3: You mentioned immigration, and going into the race, immigration was

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Speaker 3: seen as the biggest issue for many of the voters

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Speaker 3: going in here. How should President Biden react to a

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Speaker 3: Trump victory in Iowa?

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Speaker 14: Well, I'm told that in private he's furious that he's

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Speaker 14: not doing better because he feels the economy has improved.

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Speaker 14: And he's right, the economy has improved, but there are

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Speaker 14: still so many other issues. And to see Biden now

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Speaker 14: in the low thirties, you'd have to say, at best

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Speaker 14: he's tied with Trump. He may be trailing by three

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Speaker 14: or four points. As we get past Super Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: How much of an issue at this point is former

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Speaker 3: President Trump's legal battles. I mean, coming out of this

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Speaker 3: Iowa caucus, He's going to be heading right back into

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Speaker 3: a court room later today for the Egene Carrol case.

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Speaker 3: That's one of many legal matters that he's dealing with.

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Speaker 14: Yeah, I don't get that one. He shows up in court,

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Speaker 14: mocks the judge, mocks prosecutors, and thinks that it's going

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Speaker 14: to help him politically. I disagree. I don't think he

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Speaker 14: has to do that, because he just draws more attention

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Speaker 14: to these problems, and.

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Speaker 3: He certainly got the attention of Iowa voters last night,

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Speaker 3: as you said, walking over coals and over sub zero

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Speaker 3: ice to get to the caucuses for him last night.

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Speaker 11: Thank you for this. Greg.

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Speaker 3: Good having you on with us this morning after the

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Speaker 3: Iowa caucuses.

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Speaker 1: Greg Valiere with.

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Speaker 3: Us this morning, the chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments.

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Speaker 3: Now we want to turn from snowy Iowa to snowy

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Speaker 3: Switzerland and bring you some of the most important conversations

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Speaker 3: from the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos. Microsoft

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Speaker 3: CEO Satya Nadella says he wants good governance and steadiness

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Speaker 3: at open Ai, but he's not worried about the company's

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Speaker 3: nonprofit structure and doesn't want greater control over his AI partner.

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Speaker 3: Satya Nadella spoke with Bloomberg's Bradstone at Bloomberg House in Davos.

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Speaker 15: You guys have been fairly aggressive and out in front

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Speaker 15: on adding AI features and capabilities to your products, and

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Speaker 15: yesterday you made an announcement where you're expanding the rollout

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Speaker 15: of the co pilot tool, fueled partly by your partnership

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Speaker 15: with the open Ai, into Microsoft products like Outlook and

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Speaker 15: Word and Excel. Talk a little bit about that and

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Speaker 15: how widely do you expect those tools to be used.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, if I step back, if you sort

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Speaker 7: of look at what has happened even in the last

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Speaker 7: so i'd say sixteen months, right, you have to go

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Speaker 7: back to November off to two, when chat GPT first

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Speaker 7: came out. I think that was the moment, which I

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Speaker 7: like to describe as the Mosaic like moment. In fact,

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Speaker 7: interesting enough, it is November of ninety three, a year

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Speaker 7: after I joined Microsoft in Mosaic first came out, and

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Speaker 7: I think that's the first AI product that we all

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Speaker 7: could relate to and get a real sense of what

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Speaker 7: this generation of AI can do in our lives. But

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Speaker 7: for me, maybe the product that really helped crystallize the

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Speaker 7: potential was get Up Copilot, which probably came six eight

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Speaker 7: months before that, and especially when we know we scaled

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Speaker 7: from GPT three to three five, that's around the time

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Speaker 7: when we felt that if you can take something like

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Speaker 7: software development, which is let's call it, the most elite

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Speaker 7: knowledge work there is, and have a tool that allows

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Speaker 7: software developer, in fact, bring joy back to software development,

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Speaker 7: keep them in flow, get them to finish tasks that

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Speaker 7: to be solidified in fact the idea that you can

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Speaker 7: have a copilot for pretty much every human task. And

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Speaker 7: so we have been on that journey and we are

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Speaker 7: anchored on two real things.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 7: The one thing the breakthrough is the user interface. In fact,

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Speaker 7: seventy years of computing history has always been about can

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Speaker 7: you build that most interuitive user experience. That's kind of

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Speaker 7: how it led to graphical interfaces or the multi touch

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Speaker 7: phone or what have you. But now with natural language,

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Speaker 7: you ultimately in some sense have arrived at that point

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Speaker 7: where it's not about us understanding computers, but computers understanding us.

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Speaker 7: So that's one major breakthrough. The other breakthrough is we

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Speaker 7: now have a new reasoning engine, which is a neural

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Speaker 7: reasoning engine, because the other seventy year history of computing

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Speaker 7: was we digitize people, places and things and try to

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Speaker 7: make sense of it reason about it. And so we

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Speaker 7: now have a new capability. So you put these two

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Speaker 7: things together, a new user interface that's much more in TUE,

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Speaker 7: grounded in natural language, but multi modal, multi turn, multi domain,

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Speaker 7: and a reasoning engine. Pretty much every software category, what

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Speaker 7: is productivity, what is an operating system, what's the browser?

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Speaker 7: They all in some sense collapse. And so that's why

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Speaker 7: I do OSK Copilot. Just as maybe in the past

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Speaker 7: we were known as an office company, or a Windows

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Speaker 7: company or a cloud company, I think going forward we

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Speaker 7: will be We have a co pilot. We have a

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Speaker 7: co pilot stack in Azure, which is all the APIs

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Speaker 7: and that's sort of what our co focus is.

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Speaker 15: Right now, tell us let's talk a little bit about

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Speaker 15: the relationship with open ai and how we should understand it.

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Speaker 15: Copilot is powered by open Ai. We saw some instability

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Speaker 15: in the relationship back in November, which.

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Speaker 8: You seem to have now come through is Microsoft.

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Speaker 15: Outsourcing what you're describing as a core capability going forward?

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Speaker 7: And yeah, so I think if you sort of step back,

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Speaker 7: in fact, it's probably helpful to understand. I grew up

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Speaker 7: in a Microsoft which sort of had these massive partnerships.

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Speaker 7: The first partnership that at least I joined was around

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Speaker 7: Intel and Microsoft. I don't think Windows would have existed

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Speaker 7: without Intel, and Intel wouldn't have had the success without Windows. Subsequently,

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Speaker 7: in fact, it's interesting, I worked on our sql server

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Speaker 7: product with SAP. In fact, I don't think sql database

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Speaker 7: would have existed without SAP. SAP success of being able

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Speaker 7: to support sql server also help them a lot, and

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Speaker 7: so in the same way, and I think of open

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Speaker 7: AI and Microsoft, so I'm used to constructing. In fact,

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Speaker 7: a lot of people talk about organic development, which of

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Speaker 7: course is the core. People talk about M and A,

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Speaker 7: but sort of not as much as talked about how

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Speaker 7: much enterprise value gets created by partnering effectively. So that's

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Speaker 7: the spirit with which I think about open AI. So

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Speaker 7: there's a whole lot we do. So when you say outsourcing,

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Speaker 7: who's outsourcing what to whom? Is the real question?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 7: So we build a compute, they then use the compute

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Speaker 7: to do the training. We then take that put it

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Speaker 7: into products, and so in some sense, it's a partnership

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Speaker 7: that is based on each of us really reinforcing what

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Speaker 7: everyone each other does, and then ultimately being competitive in

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Speaker 7: the marketplace. There's room for I call it horizontal specialization.

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Speaker 7: There is room for vertical specialization. Sometimes some business models

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Speaker 7: are in vogue.

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Speaker 13: I'm a big believer in.

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Speaker 7: Horizontal specialization, especially if you can vertically integrate everything.

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