WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 9 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 23) 0:00:09.080 --> 0:00:12.160 Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:12.200 --> 0:00:15.120 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.520 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:19.959 It is time to break down some of our favorite 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.440 and least favorite bets for the Week nine NFL slate 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:24.480 and with me to talk about it all is Rich 0:00:24.560 --> 0:00:27.680 Ryan hosted the grid Iron Gamble podcast. You can find 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:31.200 Rich on Twitter at rich t Ryan Rich. You and 0:00:31.240 --> 0:00:33.680 I spoke all the way back in Week four, I believe, 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.200 so it's been a while. How you doing doing great? 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:40.120 We're here on the eve of Halloween, one of the 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:44.280 most fun holidays here in the United States, where even 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:47.640 adults get to dress up in costumes and walk around 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:49.200 the neighborhood and you. 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:51.760 Get dressed up, Rich, That's what I think the listeners want. 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:54.120 Know. Unfortunately, I do not. I don't work in a 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:58.120 traditional environment anywhere anymore where I go into an office 0:00:58.120 --> 0:01:00.400 and there might be like an office party. I work 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:03.040 remotely and with a small team, so unfortunately I don't 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:06.000 have that avenue with which to have a Halloween party. 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:09.880 But I definitely am yearning to be a child again 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:11.040 and get dressed up. 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:13.080 So do you have children of your own rich I 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.240 do not not. Yes, So let me just give you 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:17.120 a very quick preview before we get into the show 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:19.160 of what is going to be like. At some point, 0:01:19.680 --> 0:01:22.640 your Halloween will no longer be dominated by like, oh 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:25.039 do I wear a costume or not? Your Halloween will 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:28.080 be dominated by the forecast says it's supposed to rain. 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:31.360 Is our small suburban town going to cancel trick or 0:01:31.360 --> 0:01:34.080 trening entirely because of the rain? Or is it not? 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:36.120 And how are we supposed to deal with that? That 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:38.560 is what I have been dealing with for the last 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:39.320 four hours. 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:43.440 So doesn't Halloween now have like a set time, like, yes, 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:46.360 this is when treating happens from the five to seven thirty. 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:47.440 Five to seven thirty. 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:50.320 It's a narrow window to get canned, it really is. 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:52.480 And if you ring a bell before them, they will 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:54.520 yell at you and say it has not started yet, 0:01:54.600 --> 0:01:56.640 even no matter how c how cute your kids look. 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:58.960 So anyway, we could talk about Halloween forever, but I 0:01:58.960 --> 0:02:01.840 think people probably we want to hear about some gambling advice, 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.919 so let's do that before we get into it. Okay, 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:08.560 let's do some full disclosure. As always, I missed hard 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:12.200 on the Panthers getting six from the forty nine ers 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:15.040 last week, and I missed not as hard but still 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:17.519 hard on the Chiefs getting three and a half from 0:02:17.560 --> 0:02:19.519 the Packers last week. I did hit on the Bears 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:22.280 and the Chargers under forty as well as Deontay Johnson 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:24.920 over seventy five receiving yards at plus one ninety. I 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:28.240 think that's the fourth straight game that I hit on 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:30.000 my top prop, so I'm gonna get a little bolder 0:02:30.480 --> 0:02:33.040 this week now. Our guest Ian McMillan had a good week, 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:35.360 hitting on the Eagles plus one and a half against 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:37.399 the Bills and the Broncos getting five and a half 0:02:37.400 --> 0:02:39.480 from the Colts, as well as his top prop of 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:42.800 Aaron Jones over seventy five yards, which he basically doubled. 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:45.880 His only miss was the Jets and Jaguars under forty one, 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:48.680 and as a jetsman, I will take full responsibility for that. 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:51.720 So not the worst week overall, but we can do better. 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:54.080 Rich Now you're gonna hear us make a few picks 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:56.480 on the show, But if you want to see more 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:59.280 of my picks, or more of any sports betting experts picks, 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:01.520 just go to Beddingpros dot com. You can see who's 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:04.480 picking any game. You'll see experts giving notes on their picks. 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:08.440 You can see how only the most accurate experts are picking. Basically, 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:10.919 it does all the work for you. Also, Rich and 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:12.639 I are going to be using the Betting Pros dot 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:16.200 Com consensus ods, which are the aggregate odds available in 0:03:16.200 --> 0:03:18.240 the market. So, as always, we're going to get started 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:20.280 with pick six, where both Rich and I are going 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:22.320 to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend, 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:24.919 either against the spread or on the over, on or 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:26.919 all right, Rich, I've talked enough, start us off what 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:27.360 you got. 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:32.799 Let's start in the Northeast with a team that your 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:35.320 guest ian faded last week, and I guess we're fading 0:03:35.320 --> 0:03:41.920 them again. I've got Washington plus ten against those pesky Bills, 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:43.839 and this is a great number if you can get 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:46.280 it at ten. I am seeing it across the board 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:50.560 on the Betting Pros against the spread portal, but nine 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:53.280 and a half elsewhere. So if you can get ten, 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:56.720 I suggest you run, don't walk to the window, to 0:03:56.800 --> 0:04:00.200 take this number. Games like this are very interesting when 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:05.520 there is a high spread and a low total. In fact, 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:09.520 this decade. When the total is below forty and the 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:12.720 dog is getting between ten and fourteen points, they're covering 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:17.000 at a fifty nine percent clip. And it makes sense. 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:20.039 If you've got two really grindy teams that are supposed 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:22.359 to play a low scoring game, how do you expect 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:24.960 one team to get out ahead and extend the lead 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:28.000 enough to cover such a large number. In addition to that, 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:32.360 I mean, if you squint, are these teams that much different? 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.960 The Bills are definitely more talented, but Football Outsiders has 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:39.640 these two teams extremely close and overall efficiency, the Bills 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:44.599 at twenty fifth and the Washington around there as well, 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:49.599 and the Washington football team. They're bad, of course, but 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:53.280 they're a professional team. If you look at that Vikings game, 0:04:53.560 --> 0:04:56.640 they didn't lay down like the Bengals or the Dolphins. 0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.719 They competed the entire game. Bill Callahan wants to run 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:02.839 the ball, which is great in a scenario like this 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:06.520 because it limits the amount of possessions. It limits the 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:09.320 amount of opportunities for the Bills to get the ball 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:12.080 and score. So this is just way too many points 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:15.200 for a Bills team that doesn't stretch the field vertically 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:18.120 and kind of wants to play a grindy, low pace, 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:21.920 low scoring game. So give me the Washington professional football 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:23.440 team getting ten points. 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:25.760 All right, So here's what I'm gonna say about it. 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:28.360 You may we're gonna say Dwayne Haskins that that is 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:30.760 exactly what I'm going to exactly. 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:33.960 Okay, So first of all, and correct me if I'm wrong. 0:05:33.960 --> 0:05:35.640 I've had a busy day, so I have not seen 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:38.359 it yet. Last I saw Keenum was still in the 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:40.719 concussion protocol. Do you have any update on that? Is 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:42.480 he out of it yet? I have not seen it 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:43.919 because he had not practice. 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:46.000 Still in the protocol, and when they're in the protocol, 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:50.040 they're listed as at practice but in a limited fashion, 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:53.080 but still in the protocol. If Haskins plays, am I 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:57.720 a little queasy about this? Absolutely? But in the two 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:01.200 games we've seen Haskins play, to be fair to the 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:05.760 rook it's been in relief, right, He's been taking secondary 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:11.160 snaps and being thrown into a game while it's in action. Right. 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:14.720 We would hope for a better performance against the Giants. 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:17.240 That secondary is a mess. But with a full week 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:19.760 of practice. Look, I'm not telling you Dwayne Haskins is 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:21.440 going to come out here and be Tom Brady right, 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:26.960 But I think, what's the difference between him and case Keenum? 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:30.359 Can it be that large? Is that even possible? I 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:34.680 don't think so, I do, I really do, like I honestly. 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:36.640 Look, I first of all, I'll put it like this. 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:39.920 If it's Keenum, I love the Dead. I completely agree. 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:42.760 I mean the total, it's thirty seven. I mean, you're right, 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.839 how many points do exactly expect the Bills to score? 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:47.760 I mean that's a you know, a twenty three and 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:50.119 a half, thirteen and a half, you know, imply total 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:53.560 over there. I don't see that. I agree, And the 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:55.880 one thing with the Redskins is they have a decent defense, 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:58.320 you know, especially their their front seven, you know, and 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:00.360 it's not like Josh Allen's able to pass all over 0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:03.120 everybody because he's incredibly inaccurate. So I agree, I don't 0:07:03.160 --> 0:07:04.760 really see them putting up a ton of points, and 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:07.400 the Redskins, when Keenum has been in there, have at 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:10.160 least been able to be competent offensively. But I have 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:12.600 to be honest, you make a fair point. Both games 0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:14.800 Haskins was in relief, but the whole point of bringing 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.760 him in relief in that Giants game was to be like, 0:07:17.800 --> 0:07:20.040 here's a layup for you, dude, and he, to me 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.800 just looks not in any way ready whatsoever? I mean 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:26.000 against the Vikings, I get it. Of course they're a 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:28.160 good defense. But he was you know, the overthrow to 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:31.080 McLaurin just really you know, killed me when I watched 0:07:31.080 --> 0:07:33.360 it because it's just, you know, his elbow. They were 0:07:33.360 --> 0:07:35.800 talking about his elbow so low, everything's sort of flying up. 0:07:35.880 --> 0:07:37.880 So if he gets the start, and it's the reason 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:40.480 why I would not feel comfortable taking it yet. I mean, 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:42.360 you seem to think that the difference between Haskins and 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:47.360 Keenum is essentially not negligible but minor. For me, that 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:50.239 is something that I think that I would be hesitant 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:51.880 to take it if Keenum starts. I want to make 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:53.400 it clear, I really like it, So if you get 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:54.800 good news on that, but for me. 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.280 But do we think the books would give themselves this 0:07:57.440 --> 0:07:59.600 much liability if they think there is that much of 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:00.000 a difference. 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:03.400 Absolutely not, Absolutely not correct. 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:05.280 Yeah, the Bills are getting most of the tickets and 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:07.120 most of the money right now, and if they think 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:10.360 there's that much of a liability of Haskins being quarterback, 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.480 and this number they think would go up, then I 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:15.480 don't think they'd list a number at all. So for 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:17.520 them to be bold enough to hang this number and 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:20.280 say whatever, go bet the bills, that gives me confidence 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:21.720 in taking Washington. 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:24.120 That's a really good point, because again, the Vikings and 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:27.200 the Chiefs have basically been off the board the whole week, 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:28.880 at least from what I can tell, right because you 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:30.480 don't know whether or not Mahomes is going to play, 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.240 and that makes a big difference. So I think that 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:33.920 that's a fair point, whether or not they think they 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:36.040 feel confident that Kingum is going to play, or whether 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:37.880 or not they think that the downgrade isn't that much. 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:41.440 But either way, I have no problem with it, because 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:44.119 I do think Kingdom's going to play at this point. Personally, 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:47.360 I'm not making my pick. I'm betting broths dot com 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:49.520 until I know who started to get quarterback. But I'm 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.640 a little hesitant and maybe a little jaded by the 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:53.880 fact that I was, you know, closely watching that Thursday 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:56.640 night game and horrified at what I saw. But he 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.600 has obviously been taking a lot of reps this week 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:01.400 at least, and he's had you know, ten days I'm 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:04.920 sure to get more familiar with everything. So okay, Washington 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:07.800 plus ten, I'll go there. I'm gonna take an equally 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.880 you know, boring game, and I'm going to take the 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:14.800 Jets and the Dolphins over forty one and a half. 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:18.319 So these are two teams that are both complete disasters 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.160 at the moment. The Jets have done almost nothing offensively 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:23.880 the last two games, but the real reason is just 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:27.000 that Sam Darnold is getting his butt kicked non stop. 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.959 The Jets offensive line is a complete disaster. So when 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:32.360 you put them up against the Patriots strong defensive line, 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:36.120 they're all over him. The Jaguars sacked him eight times, 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.400 and again, that's kind of what you expect from those teams. 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:40.199 The Pats are first in the league in sacks. The 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:42.800 Jaguars are third, of course, boyed by a little bit 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:45.080 of what they did against the Jets, but that's not 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:46.880 gonna be the case with the Dolphins. They have just 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:49.880 nine sacks on the season. That's second worst in the league, 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.280 tied with the Jets. Incidentally, they rarely get pressure, and 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:56.400 you've seen the Jets like competent offensively, at least against 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:59.160 the Cowboys. You're gonna see it again here. Leveon Bell 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:01.959 is going to have a big game. Robbie Anderson is 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.000 going to have a big game with Zami and Howard 0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:06.120 now on Ir which was like the one guy in 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:08.160 the secondary, even though he was not playing particularly well 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:10.120 this year, the one guy in the secondary once they 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:13.320 got rid of Minka Fitzpatrick that you feared. Sam Darnold 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:15.120 is playing through a thumb spring, but it is his 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.960 left hand. I think he's gonna be fine. He's fully practicing. 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:19.920 So I think the Jets are gonna put up points here, 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:22.439 and I think so are the Dolphins. The offense looks 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:25.000 kind of competent with fits back out there, which he's 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:27.880 already been named the starter like the Dolphins. As I said, 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:30.640 the Jets get absolutely no pressure, just nine sacks, and 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:33.199 now they're down. Leonard Williams. C J. Mosley is probably 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:34.800 going to miss the rest of the season. He's obviously 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:37.240 not gonna play in this game. The secondary outside of 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:41.440 Jamal Adams is not great, and Adams is in full 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:44.880 drama mode. He basically, you know, is angry at the 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.680 prospect of getting traded. He refused a meeting with the 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.040 GM right now, so who even knows you know what 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.920 is going to happen with him this weekend. But either way, 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:57.080 in the end, it's two really terrible defenses and two 0:10:57.200 --> 0:11:01.040 offenses that have enough playmakers to move the ball. So 0:11:01.160 --> 0:11:03.160 for me, the over at forty one and a half 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:04.480 is my favorite bet of the weekend. 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:07.840 This is great and not only are the raw sacks 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:12.040 really low for the Dolphins, the advanced metrics absolutely hate 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:15.360 them as well. Twenty fifth in DVA pass rushing, thirty 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.240 second over on Pro Football Focus. And that is the 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.959 weakness on this Jets offense. You know, think of think, 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:24.160 think what you want about Darnold, but the kid can 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:27.840 throw the ball and these weapons are a little bit fresky. 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:31.040 Jameson Crowder is a guy that can work himself open. 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:33.840 If Chris Herndon comes back, he's going to be a 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:36.800 nice threat alongside Ryan Griffin, who's been just more than 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:40.079 a warm body running routes for this Jets offense. And 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:42.960 on the other side of the ball. On the grid 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:46.559 Iron Gamble podcast, we like to refer to Fitzpatrick as 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:50.480 Fitzpowder keg because the keg can blow at any time 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.960 and there is certainly a defensive touchdown to be had 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:57.320 in this game if Keg is just throwing the ball 0:11:57.320 --> 0:12:00.600 all over the field against a very very agressive Greg 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.760 Williams defense. So yeah, I definitely like the over in 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:06.600 this spot, especially if we can look into one of 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:08.000 those defensive touchdowns Spy. 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.760 And don't don't forget I mean, you know, as it's 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:12.839 a great nickname for Fits, but he can move the ball. 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.560 I mean they scored on their opening two drives against 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:20.360 the Steelers pretty easily. You know, Fits was moving down 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:23.120 the field. And don't forget the narrative. This is one 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.120 of what's you know, I don't know how many revenge 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:28.600 games Fits can have. Yeah, it's got to be something. 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:30.880 So I agree. I think both teams are are really 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:33.679 going to put up some points here, and I think 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:35.840 it's going to hit this over pretty pretty well. So 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:38.120 I feel good about this one, and it's my number 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.120 one bet. All right, let's move on to your second pick. 0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:41.080 What do you have? All right? 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:45.480 If we didn't like Dwayne Haskins putting real money on him, 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:49.560 let's get a little uglier and select the Chicago Bears 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:54.680 plus five traveling to Philadelphia to play the Eagles. To me, 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:58.360 and my third game will be like this as well, 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:01.640 this is very much a market play. This is a 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.840 three and a half point look aheadline. Preseason this line 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:08.960 was three. I don't know what the difference is really 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.840 between these two teams other than the fact that the 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:15.920 Bears have been embarrassed two straight weeks at home and 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:19.360 everybody thinks they're horrific and their stock is plummeting. And 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:24.120 the Eagles went to Buffalo and poured thirty on a 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:29.040 team that previous to that game only had one loss 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:32.600 at Philadelphia's lows have been very low this season. They 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:35.560 lost to the Falcons, they lost to six point favorites 0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:38.080 at home to the Lions. Even when they beat up 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:39.880 on our stinky Jets, they only had four and a 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:43.360 half yards per play in that game. So this is 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.240 a stock high stock love spot where I really think 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:49.280 that we can take the Bears. And just looking at 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:53.080 the football analysis as well, Jason Peter's not playing today. 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.720 He's not practicing today, excuse me on Wednesday. He's not 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.240 played the last couple of games. And Andre Dillard, who 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:02.920 they drafted as a luxury to be a backup left tackle, 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:06.920 has really struggled. Struggled. Now he's gonna have Khalil Mack 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:10.280 lining up right in front of him. Even the double 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:12.800 team is gonna make that life hell for the rookie 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:15.280 on the left hand side. So give me the Bears 0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:19.720 get right spot on the road, a bad secondary to 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:22.600 get Trubisky going a little bit, Matt and Agy scheming 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:25.160 some things up. I just think this is a point 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:26.200 maybe a point and a half. 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.400 Too high, all right, So I don't mind it whatsoever. 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:31.040 And it did move, you're right, even at the beginning 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:32.640 of the week. I think it was three and a 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:34.880 half or something like that. So it's been recent and 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.080 again a lot of it is from this weekend. But 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:39.960 you know, other than that last maybe sentence or two 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.240 that you threw in there, there's very little about the Bears' 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:45.680 offense going on. Do you think that they're going to 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:47.440 be able to put up point I know the Eagles 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:51.520 secondary is horrendous, but their run defense is good. And 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:53.920 you know David Montgomery, he was kind of the guy 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:56.840 last week. They finally went to him. So I get 0:14:56.920 --> 0:15:00.680 completely about the Eagles having trouble scoring necessarily, But do 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:01.880 you think the Bears are going to be able to 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:02.640 put up points here? 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:04.600 I think they'll be able to do enough I trust 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:07.880 Nagy enough coming from that read coaching tree to scheme 0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:12.240 up things against an Eagle secondary that is really really 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:14.440 struggling to cover. And Nigel Bradham you can add to 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:18.200 that injury report as well. He's a very good linebacker 0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:21.200 for Philadelphia. So I mean, what do we need to 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:26.040 get to seventeen twenty points here to secure a cover? 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:28.880 I think Naggy and those guys can do it. I mean, 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:30.960 this Eagles team has been They're kind of the yo 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:33.360 yo team this year. Right. You kind of want to 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:35.600 fade them after they've looked great and bet on them 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:39.000 after they've looked terrible because the opposite is coming, and 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:40.920 I think this is a week we can almost take 0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:41.480 advantage of that. 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:44.440 Yeah. Look, I don't hate it, and it kind of 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:47.240 leads into my next pick, which I was gonna wait 0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:49.080 till three, but I'll move it now since it goes 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:52.320 nicely into our narrative. The line has moved on this one, 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:54.800 like we were talking about right before I said, ah, 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:56.840 the line moved on one of the games that I 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.680 had right before I had this pick. But I'm still 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:01.840 gonna go with it. And that is the same game 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:04.000 that you picked, which is the Bears and Eagles, and 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:06.480 I'm going with under forty two. It was under forty 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:09.200 three when I first picked it. A lot of what 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:11.600 you said makes sense, except for the fact that I 0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:15.240 don't really see either team necessarily being able to put 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:17.760 up a ton of points. The Shawn Jackson is potentially 0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.360 back this week, that screws up the narrative a tiny bit, 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:22.200 because I do think he makes it kind of a 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:25.840 big difference in that offense for the Eagles. But again, 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:28.040 I really do think that this sets up well for 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:31.080 the Unders, just in the way that both these teams play. 0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:34.400 The Eagles you've talked about them, but in particular, they're 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:38.520 like the worst first half team in the game today. 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:40.520 I mean, remember they started the season by being down 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:44.840 twenty to seven against Washington. They fell behind significantly against 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.280 both the Lions you just mentioned and the Vikings. For 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:50.720 whatever reason, they cannot get going early. They've been behind 0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:52.640 at halftime in five of their eight games. They're one 0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:54.280 of the worst teams in the league in terms of 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:57.440 first quarter and first half point differential. I don't really 0:16:57.480 --> 0:16:59.280 have the reason for it other than I think that 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:03.080 they're really not a very good football team right now, 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:05.040 and then they play with their hair on fire in 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.639 the comeback mode, so they can just get some points 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:10.119 out of there, but otherwise they just struggle. And on 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:12.639 the offensive side of the ball, things just they just 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:14.800 look disjointed, right, I mean, zach Ertz hasn't gotten the 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:17.880 ball enough. The offensive line is a disaster. As you mentioned, 0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:20.760 they're finally leaning on the running game and that's working 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.240 a little bit more, but it's not really you know, 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:26.000 Miles Sanders is banged up a little bit with the shoulder. 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:28.399 He should play, but again I don't expect them to 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:31.560 be able to, you know, have however, whatever four rushing 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.560 touchdowns or three rushing touchdowns like they had last game 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:36.399 against the Bills. And on the defensive side, again, the 0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:40.119 secondary has been decimated by injuries all year long. Jalen Mills, 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:43.160 Ronald Darby, Vonte Maddox. They've all missed time and again. 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:46.119 They can stop the run, but not really the past. 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:49.800 But that's probably a pretty good recipe for the under because, 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:52.640 unlike you, I have a little less faith I think 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:54.960 in the Bears offense. I mean Mitchell Trubisky. To me, 0:17:56.040 --> 0:18:00.560 I've watched them closely. Everything is bad. This is taking 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:04.399 a giant sort of leap backwards. There was all these 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:07.119 whispers in the preseason about how he just looked like 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:08.919 he had regressed, and I didn't really buy it. But 0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:11.720 you know, whatever it is, he's been inaccurate. He doesn't 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:14.080 look confident. The play calling in Matt ANDEGGI you know, 0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:17.320 you mentioned it as a positive. I don't know. It 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:20.920 almost seems designed not to maximize the Bear strength at 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:23.359 this point. And again, you know, the one thing that 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:25.600 they have going right now, I mean, Alan Robinson's playing great, 0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:28.679 but David Montgomery last game, he looked great. They ran 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:31.040 out a ton, but that's really where the Eagles sort 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:33.959 of set up shops. So in the end, I just 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:36.640 don't really think that all of a sudden, the Eagles 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:41.040 are suddenly going to magically fix their slow starts. And 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.040 in the end, I don't think they're gonna need to 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:47.240 really come charging in the second half like they have 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:49.399 been and put up all those points that they usually do, 0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:51.879 because I don't see the Bears getting out to a 0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:54.520 big lead. And I get the last game was eleven 0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:57.200