Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi.
Speaker 1: It is time to break down some of our favorite
Speaker 1: and least favorite bets for the Week nine NFL slate
Speaker 1: and with me to talk about it all is Rich
Speaker 1: Ryan hosted the grid Iron Gamble podcast. You can find
Speaker 1: Rich on Twitter at rich t Ryan Rich. You and
Speaker 1: I spoke all the way back in Week four, I believe,
Speaker 1: so it's been a while. How you doing doing great?
Speaker 2: We're here on the eve of Halloween, one of the
Speaker 2: most fun holidays here in the United States, where even
Speaker 2: adults get to dress up in costumes and walk around
Speaker 2: the neighborhood and you.
Speaker 1: Get dressed up, Rich, That's what I think the listeners want.
Speaker 2: Know. Unfortunately, I do not. I don't work in a
Speaker 2: traditional environment anywhere anymore where I go into an office
Speaker 2: and there might be like an office party. I work
Speaker 2: remotely and with a small team, so unfortunately I don't
Speaker 2: have that avenue with which to have a Halloween party.
Speaker 2: But I definitely am yearning to be a child again
Speaker 2: and get dressed up.
Speaker 1: So do you have children of your own rich I
Speaker 1: do not not. Yes, So let me just give you
Speaker 1: a very quick preview before we get into the show
Speaker 1: of what is going to be like. At some point,
Speaker 1: your Halloween will no longer be dominated by like, oh
Speaker 1: do I wear a costume or not? Your Halloween will
Speaker 1: be dominated by the forecast says it's supposed to rain.
Speaker 1: Is our small suburban town going to cancel trick or
Speaker 1: trening entirely because of the rain? Or is it not?
Speaker 1: And how are we supposed to deal with that? That
Speaker 1: is what I have been dealing with for the last
Speaker 1: four hours.
Speaker 2: So doesn't Halloween now have like a set time, like, yes,
Speaker 2: this is when treating happens from the five to seven thirty.
Speaker 1: Five to seven thirty.
Speaker 2: It's a narrow window to get canned, it really is.
Speaker 1: And if you ring a bell before them, they will
Speaker 1: yell at you and say it has not started yet,
Speaker 1: even no matter how c how cute your kids look.
Speaker 1: So anyway, we could talk about Halloween forever, but I
Speaker 1: think people probably we want to hear about some gambling advice,
Speaker 1: so let's do that before we get into it. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's do some full disclosure. As always, I missed hard
Speaker 1: on the Panthers getting six from the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: last week, and I missed not as hard but still
Speaker 1: hard on the Chiefs getting three and a half from
Speaker 1: the Packers last week. I did hit on the Bears
Speaker 1: and the Chargers under forty as well as Deontay Johnson
Speaker 1: over seventy five receiving yards at plus one ninety. I
Speaker 1: think that's the fourth straight game that I hit on
Speaker 1: my top prop, so I'm gonna get a little bolder
Speaker 1: this week now. Our guest Ian McMillan had a good week,
Speaker 1: hitting on the Eagles plus one and a half against
Speaker 1: the Bills and the Broncos getting five and a half
Speaker 1: from the Colts, as well as his top prop of
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones over seventy five yards, which he basically doubled.
Speaker 1: His only miss was the Jets and Jaguars under forty one,
Speaker 1: and as a jetsman, I will take full responsibility for that.
Speaker 1: So not the worst week overall, but we can do better.
Speaker 1: Rich Now you're gonna hear us make a few picks
Speaker 1: on the show, But if you want to see more
Speaker 1: of my picks, or more of any sports betting experts picks,
Speaker 1: just go to Beddingpros dot com. You can see who's
Speaker 1: picking any game. You'll see experts giving notes on their picks.
Speaker 1: You can see how only the most accurate experts are picking. Basically,
Speaker 1: it does all the work for you. Also, Rich and
Speaker 1: I are going to be using the Betting Pros dot
Speaker 1: Com consensus ods, which are the aggregate odds available in
Speaker 1: the market. So, as always, we're going to get started
Speaker 1: with pick six, where both Rich and I are going
Speaker 1: to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend,
Speaker 1: either against the spread or on the over, on or
Speaker 1: all right, Rich, I've talked enough, start us off what
Speaker 1: you got.
Speaker 2: Let's start in the Northeast with a team that your
Speaker 2: guest ian faded last week, and I guess we're fading
Speaker 2: them again. I've got Washington plus ten against those pesky Bills,
Speaker 2: and this is a great number if you can get
Speaker 2: it at ten. I am seeing it across the board
Speaker 2: on the Betting Pros against the spread portal, but nine
Speaker 2: and a half elsewhere. So if you can get ten,
Speaker 2: I suggest you run, don't walk to the window, to
Speaker 2: take this number. Games like this are very interesting when
Speaker 2: there is a high spread and a low total. In fact,
Speaker 2: this decade. When the total is below forty and the
Speaker 2: dog is getting between ten and fourteen points, they're covering
Speaker 2: at a fifty nine percent clip. And it makes sense.
Speaker 2: If you've got two really grindy teams that are supposed
Speaker 2: to play a low scoring game, how do you expect
Speaker 2: one team to get out ahead and extend the lead
Speaker 2: enough to cover such a large number. In addition to that,
Speaker 2: I mean, if you squint, are these teams that much different?
Speaker 2: The Bills are definitely more talented, but Football Outsiders has
Speaker 2: these two teams extremely close and overall efficiency, the Bills
Speaker 2: at twenty fifth and the Washington around there as well,
Speaker 2: and the Washington football team. They're bad, of course, but
Speaker 2: they're a professional team. If you look at that Vikings game,
Speaker 2: they didn't lay down like the Bengals or the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: They competed the entire game. Bill Callahan wants to run
Speaker 2: the ball, which is great in a scenario like this
Speaker 2: because it limits the amount of possessions. It limits the
Speaker 2: amount of opportunities for the Bills to get the ball
Speaker 2: and score. So this is just way too many points
Speaker 2: for a Bills team that doesn't stretch the field vertically
Speaker 2: and kind of wants to play a grindy, low pace,
Speaker 2: low scoring game. So give me the Washington professional football
Speaker 2: team getting ten points.
Speaker 1: All right, So here's what I'm gonna say about it.
Speaker 2: You may we're gonna say Dwayne Haskins that that is
Speaker 2: exactly what I'm going to exactly.
Speaker 1: Okay, So first of all, and correct me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 1: I've had a busy day, so I have not seen
Speaker 1: it yet. Last I saw Keenum was still in the
Speaker 1: concussion protocol. Do you have any update on that? Is
Speaker 1: he out of it yet? I have not seen it
Speaker 1: because he had not practice.
Speaker 2: Still in the protocol, and when they're in the protocol,
Speaker 2: they're listed as at practice but in a limited fashion,
Speaker 2: but still in the protocol. If Haskins plays, am I
Speaker 2: a little queasy about this? Absolutely? But in the two
Speaker 2: games we've seen Haskins play, to be fair to the
Speaker 2: rook it's been in relief, right, He's been taking secondary
Speaker 2: snaps and being thrown into a game while it's in action. Right.
Speaker 2: We would hope for a better performance against the Giants.
Speaker 2: That secondary is a mess. But with a full week
Speaker 2: of practice. Look, I'm not telling you Dwayne Haskins is
Speaker 2: going to come out here and be Tom Brady right,
Speaker 2: But I think, what's the difference between him and case Keenum?
Speaker 2: Can it be that large? Is that even possible? I
Speaker 2: don't think so, I do, I really do, like I honestly.
Speaker 1: Look, I first of all, I'll put it like this.
Speaker 1: If it's Keenum, I love the Dead. I completely agree.
Speaker 1: I mean the total, it's thirty seven. I mean, you're right,
Speaker 1: how many points do exactly expect the Bills to score?
Speaker 1: I mean that's a you know, a twenty three and
Speaker 1: a half, thirteen and a half, you know, imply total
Speaker 1: over there. I don't see that. I agree, And the
Speaker 1: one thing with the Redskins is they have a decent defense,
Speaker 1: you know, especially their their front seven, you know, and
Speaker 1: it's not like Josh Allen's able to pass all over
Speaker 1: everybody because he's incredibly inaccurate. So I agree, I don't
Speaker 1: really see them putting up a ton of points, and
Speaker 1: the Redskins, when Keenum has been in there, have at
Speaker 1: least been able to be competent offensively. But I have
Speaker 1: to be honest, you make a fair point. Both games
Speaker 1: Haskins was in relief, but the whole point of bringing
Speaker 1: him in relief in that Giants game was to be like,
Speaker 1: here's a layup for you, dude, and he, to me
Speaker 1: just looks not in any way ready whatsoever? I mean
Speaker 1: against the Vikings, I get it. Of course they're a
Speaker 1: good defense. But he was you know, the overthrow to
Speaker 1: McLaurin just really you know, killed me when I watched
Speaker 1: it because it's just, you know, his elbow. They were
Speaker 1: talking about his elbow so low, everything's sort of flying up.
Speaker 1: So if he gets the start, and it's the reason
Speaker 1: why I would not feel comfortable taking it yet. I mean,
Speaker 1: you seem to think that the difference between Haskins and
Speaker 1: Keenum is essentially not negligible but minor. For me, that
Speaker 1: is something that I think that I would be hesitant
Speaker 1: to take it if Keenum starts. I want to make
Speaker 1: it clear, I really like it, So if you get
Speaker 1: good news on that, but for me.
Speaker 2: But do we think the books would give themselves this
Speaker 2: much liability if they think there is that much of
Speaker 2: a difference.
Speaker 1: Absolutely not, Absolutely not correct.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Bills are getting most of the tickets and
Speaker 2: most of the money right now, and if they think
Speaker 2: there's that much of a liability of Haskins being quarterback,
Speaker 2: and this number they think would go up, then I
Speaker 2: don't think they'd list a number at all. So for
Speaker 2: them to be bold enough to hang this number and
Speaker 2: say whatever, go bet the bills, that gives me confidence
Speaker 2: in taking Washington.
Speaker 1: That's a really good point, because again, the Vikings and
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have basically been off the board the whole week,
Speaker 1: at least from what I can tell, right because you
Speaker 1: don't know whether or not Mahomes is going to play,
Speaker 1: and that makes a big difference. So I think that
Speaker 1: that's a fair point, whether or not they think they
Speaker 1: feel confident that Kingum is going to play, or whether
Speaker 1: or not they think that the downgrade isn't that much.
Speaker 1: But either way, I have no problem with it, because
Speaker 1: I do think Kingdom's going to play at this point. Personally,
Speaker 1: I'm not making my pick. I'm betting broths dot com
Speaker 1: until I know who started to get quarterback. But I'm
Speaker 1: a little hesitant and maybe a little jaded by the
Speaker 1: fact that I was, you know, closely watching that Thursday
Speaker 1: night game and horrified at what I saw. But he
Speaker 1: has obviously been taking a lot of reps this week
Speaker 1: at least, and he's had you know, ten days I'm
Speaker 1: sure to get more familiar with everything. So okay, Washington
Speaker 1: plus ten, I'll go there. I'm gonna take an equally
Speaker 1: you know, boring game, and I'm going to take the
Speaker 1: Jets and the Dolphins over forty one and a half.
Speaker 1: So these are two teams that are both complete disasters
Speaker 1: at the moment. The Jets have done almost nothing offensively
Speaker 1: the last two games, but the real reason is just
Speaker 1: that Sam Darnold is getting his butt kicked non stop.
Speaker 1: The Jets offensive line is a complete disaster. So when
Speaker 1: you put them up against the Patriots strong defensive line,
Speaker 1: they're all over him. The Jaguars sacked him eight times,
Speaker 1: and again, that's kind of what you expect from those teams.
Speaker 1: The Pats are first in the league in sacks. The
Speaker 1: Jaguars are third, of course, boyed by a little bit
Speaker 1: of what they did against the Jets, but that's not
Speaker 1: gonna be the case with the Dolphins. They have just
Speaker 1: nine sacks on the season. That's second worst in the league,
Speaker 1: tied with the Jets. Incidentally, they rarely get pressure, and
Speaker 1: you've seen the Jets like competent offensively, at least against
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. You're gonna see it again here. Leveon Bell
Speaker 1: is going to have a big game. Robbie Anderson is
Speaker 1: going to have a big game with Zami and Howard
Speaker 1: now on Ir which was like the one guy in
Speaker 1: the secondary, even though he was not playing particularly well
Speaker 1: this year, the one guy in the secondary once they
Speaker 1: got rid of Minka Fitzpatrick that you feared. Sam Darnold
Speaker 1: is playing through a thumb spring, but it is his
Speaker 1: left hand. I think he's gonna be fine. He's fully practicing.
Speaker 1: So I think the Jets are gonna put up points here,
Speaker 1: and I think so are the Dolphins. The offense looks
Speaker 1: kind of competent with fits back out there, which he's
Speaker 1: already been named the starter like the Dolphins. As I said,
Speaker 1: the Jets get absolutely no pressure, just nine sacks, and
Speaker 1: now they're down. Leonard Williams. C J. Mosley is probably
Speaker 1: going to miss the rest of the season. He's obviously
Speaker 1: not gonna play in this game. The secondary outside of
Speaker 1: Jamal Adams is not great, and Adams is in full
Speaker 1: drama mode. He basically, you know, is angry at the
Speaker 1: prospect of getting traded. He refused a meeting with the
Speaker 1: GM right now, so who even knows you know what
Speaker 1: is going to happen with him this weekend. But either way,
Speaker 1: in the end, it's two really terrible defenses and two
Speaker 1: offenses that have enough playmakers to move the ball. So
Speaker 1: for me, the over at forty one and a half
Speaker 1: is my favorite bet of the weekend.
Speaker 2: This is great and not only are the raw sacks
Speaker 2: really low for the Dolphins, the advanced metrics absolutely hate
Speaker 2: them as well. Twenty fifth in DVA pass rushing, thirty
Speaker 2: second over on Pro Football Focus. And that is the
Speaker 2: weakness on this Jets offense. You know, think of think,
Speaker 2: think what you want about Darnold, but the kid can
Speaker 2: throw the ball and these weapons are a little bit fresky.
Speaker 2: Jameson Crowder is a guy that can work himself open.
Speaker 2: If Chris Herndon comes back, he's going to be a
Speaker 2: nice threat alongside Ryan Griffin, who's been just more than
Speaker 2: a warm body running routes for this Jets offense. And
Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball. On the grid
Speaker 2: Iron Gamble podcast, we like to refer to Fitzpatrick as
Speaker 2: Fitzpowder keg because the keg can blow at any time
Speaker 2: and there is certainly a defensive touchdown to be had
Speaker 2: in this game if Keg is just throwing the ball
Speaker 2: all over the field against a very very agressive Greg
Speaker 2: Williams defense. So yeah, I definitely like the over in
Speaker 2: this spot, especially if we can look into one of
Speaker 2: those defensive touchdowns Spy.
Speaker 1: And don't don't forget I mean, you know, as it's
Speaker 1: a great nickname for Fits, but he can move the ball.
Speaker 1: I mean they scored on their opening two drives against
Speaker 1: the Steelers pretty easily. You know, Fits was moving down
Speaker 1: the field. And don't forget the narrative. This is one
Speaker 1: of what's you know, I don't know how many revenge
Speaker 1: games Fits can have. Yeah, it's got to be something.
Speaker 1: So I agree. I think both teams are are really
Speaker 1: going to put up some points here, and I think
Speaker 1: it's going to hit this over pretty pretty well. So
Speaker 1: I feel good about this one, and it's my number
Speaker 1: one bet. All right, let's move on to your second pick.
Speaker 1: What do you have? All right?
Speaker 2: If we didn't like Dwayne Haskins putting real money on him,
Speaker 2: let's get a little uglier and select the Chicago Bears
Speaker 2: plus five traveling to Philadelphia to play the Eagles. To me,
Speaker 2: and my third game will be like this as well,
Speaker 2: this is very much a market play. This is a
Speaker 2: three and a half point look aheadline. Preseason this line
Speaker 2: was three. I don't know what the difference is really
Speaker 2: between these two teams other than the fact that the
Speaker 2: Bears have been embarrassed two straight weeks at home and
Speaker 2: everybody thinks they're horrific and their stock is plummeting. And
Speaker 2: the Eagles went to Buffalo and poured thirty on a
Speaker 2: team that previous to that game only had one loss
Speaker 2: at Philadelphia's lows have been very low this season. They
Speaker 2: lost to the Falcons, they lost to six point favorites
Speaker 2: at home to the Lions. Even when they beat up
Speaker 2: on our stinky Jets, they only had four and a
Speaker 2: half yards per play in that game. So this is
Speaker 2: a stock high stock love spot where I really think
Speaker 2: that we can take the Bears. And just looking at
Speaker 2: the football analysis as well, Jason Peter's not playing today.
Speaker 2: He's not practicing today, excuse me on Wednesday. He's not
Speaker 2: played the last couple of games. And Andre Dillard, who
Speaker 2: they drafted as a luxury to be a backup left tackle,
Speaker 2: has really struggled. Struggled. Now he's gonna have Khalil Mack
Speaker 2: lining up right in front of him. Even the double
Speaker 2: team is gonna make that life hell for the rookie
Speaker 2: on the left hand side. So give me the Bears
Speaker 2: get right spot on the road, a bad secondary to
Speaker 2: get Trubisky going a little bit, Matt and Agy scheming
Speaker 2: some things up. I just think this is a point
Speaker 2: maybe a point and a half.
Speaker 1: Too high, all right, So I don't mind it whatsoever.
Speaker 1: And it did move, you're right, even at the beginning
Speaker 1: of the week. I think it was three and a
Speaker 1: half or something like that. So it's been recent and
Speaker 1: again a lot of it is from this weekend. But
Speaker 1: you know, other than that last maybe sentence or two
Speaker 1: that you threw in there, there's very little about the Bears'
Speaker 1: offense going on. Do you think that they're going to
Speaker 1: be able to put up point I know the Eagles
Speaker 1: secondary is horrendous, but their run defense is good. And
Speaker 1: you know David Montgomery, he was kind of the guy
Speaker 1: last week. They finally went to him. So I get
Speaker 1: completely about the Eagles having trouble scoring necessarily, But do
Speaker 1: you think the Bears are going to be able to
Speaker 1: put up points here?
Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to do enough I trust
Speaker 2: Nagy enough coming from that read coaching tree to scheme
Speaker 2: up things against an Eagle secondary that is really really
Speaker 2: struggling to cover. And Nigel Bradham you can add to
Speaker 2: that injury report as well. He's a very good linebacker
Speaker 2: for Philadelphia. So I mean, what do we need to
Speaker 2: get to seventeen twenty points here to secure a cover?
Speaker 2: I think Naggy and those guys can do it. I mean,
Speaker 2: this Eagles team has been They're kind of the yo
Speaker 2: yo team this year. Right. You kind of want to
Speaker 2: fade them after they've looked great and bet on them
Speaker 2: after they've looked terrible because the opposite is coming, and
Speaker 2: I think this is a week we can almost take
Speaker 2: advantage of that.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I don't hate it, and it kind of
Speaker 1: leads into my next pick, which I was gonna wait
Speaker 1: till three, but I'll move it now since it goes
Speaker 1: nicely into our narrative. The line has moved on this one,
Speaker 1: like we were talking about right before I said, ah,
Speaker 1: the line moved on one of the games that I
Speaker 1: had right before I had this pick. But I'm still
Speaker 1: gonna go with it. And that is the same game
Speaker 1: that you picked, which is the Bears and Eagles, and
Speaker 1: I'm going with under forty two. It was under forty
Speaker 1: three when I first picked it. A lot of what
Speaker 1: you said makes sense, except for the fact that I
Speaker 1: don't really see either team necessarily being able to put
Speaker 1: up a ton of points. The Shawn Jackson is potentially
Speaker 1: back this week, that screws up the narrative a tiny bit,
Speaker 1: because I do think he makes it kind of a
Speaker 1: big difference in that offense for the Eagles. But again,
Speaker 1: I really do think that this sets up well for
Speaker 1: the Unders, just in the way that both these teams play.
Speaker 1: The Eagles you've talked about them, but in particular, they're
Speaker 1: like the worst first half team in the game today.
Speaker 1: I mean, remember they started the season by being down
Speaker 1: twenty to seven against Washington. They fell behind significantly against
Speaker 1: both the Lions you just mentioned and the Vikings. For
Speaker 1: whatever reason, they cannot get going early. They've been behind
Speaker 1: at halftime in five of their eight games. They're one
Speaker 1: of the worst teams in the league in terms of
Speaker 1: first quarter and first half point differential. I don't really
Speaker 1: have the reason for it other than I think that
Speaker 1: they're really not a very good football team right now,
Speaker 1: and then they play with their hair on fire in
Speaker 1: the comeback mode, so they can just get some points
Speaker 1: out of there, but otherwise they just struggle. And on
Speaker 1: the offensive side of the ball, things just they just
Speaker 1: look disjointed, right, I mean, zach Ertz hasn't gotten the
Speaker 1: ball enough. The offensive line is a disaster. As you mentioned,
Speaker 1: they're finally leaning on the running game and that's working
Speaker 1: a little bit more, but it's not really you know,
Speaker 1: Miles Sanders is banged up a little bit with the shoulder.
Speaker 1: He should play, but again I don't expect them to
Speaker 1: be able to, you know, have however, whatever four rushing
Speaker 1: touchdowns or three rushing touchdowns like they had last game
Speaker 1: against the Bills. And on the defensive side, again, the
Speaker 1: secondary has been decimated by injuries all year long. Jalen Mills,
Speaker 1: Ronald Darby, Vonte Maddox. They've all missed time and again.
Speaker 1: They can stop the run, but not really the past.
Speaker 1: But that's probably a pretty good recipe for the under because,
Speaker 1: unlike you, I have a little less faith I think
Speaker 1: in the Bears offense. I mean Mitchell Trubisky. To me,
Speaker 1: I've watched them closely. Everything is bad. This is taking
Speaker 1: a giant sort of leap backwards. There was all these
Speaker 1: whispers in the preseason about how he just looked like
Speaker 1: he had regressed, and I didn't really buy it. But
Speaker 1: you know, whatever it is, he's been inaccurate. He doesn't
Speaker 1: look confident. The play calling in Matt ANDEGGI you know,
Speaker 1: you mentioned it as a positive. I don't know. It
Speaker 1: almost seems designed not to maximize the Bear strength at
Speaker 1: this point. And again, you know, the one thing that
Speaker 1: they have going right now, I mean, Alan Robinson's playing great,
Speaker 1: but David Montgomery last game, he looked great. They ran
Speaker 1: out a ton, but that's really where the Eagles sort
Speaker 1: of set up shops. So in the end, I just
Speaker 1: don't really think that all of a sudden, the Eagles
Speaker 1: are suddenly going to magically fix their slow starts. And
Speaker 1: in the end, I don't think they're gonna need to
Speaker 1: really come charging in the second half like they have
Speaker 1: been and put up all those points that they usually do,
Speaker 1: because I don't see the Bears getting out to a
Speaker 1: big lead. And I get the last game was eleven
Speaker 1: to seven against the Bills, and then the Eagles wound
Speaker 1: up putting up twenty points in the second half. But
Speaker 1: a lot of that was fluky. I don't really think,
Speaker 1: as you said, they're up and then they're immediately down.
Speaker 1: So I don't really expect to see that this week.
Speaker 1: I expect a low, close scoring game, which is why
Speaker 1: I don't in any way hate the Bears getting five,
Speaker 1: because I think once you're past the key number of three, frankly,
Speaker 1: I feel a little more confident in the Bears. So
Speaker 1: for me, even though I liked it at forty three,
Speaker 1: which is when I originally said I was gonna take it,
Speaker 1: I will take it at the Bears Eagles under forty two.
Speaker 2: Well, your thoughts they brought down the action, you know,
Speaker 2: your your sharp thoughts moving markets.
Speaker 1: Right, I mean I figured, you know, the Bears are
Speaker 1: usually a pretty good underplay, just because they put up
Speaker 1: so few points and the defense gets a little bit
Speaker 1: of a bad rap right now. I mean, their run
Speaker 1: defense is clearly weaker without a Keen Hicks. Okay, there's
Speaker 1: no denying that, but it's still overall a relatively strong defense.
Speaker 1: I mean, go be a Jets fan for a day
Speaker 1: and then figure out, you know what it's like to
Speaker 1: watch an actual mediocre team. So for me, you know,
Speaker 1: I think in the end, it's going to be a
Speaker 1: close scoring game. I agree with you that the Eagles
Speaker 1: just when they're up, that's when you kind of bet
Speaker 1: against them. So for me, I think it's much more
Speaker 1: betting against the offense, and I think it's just going
Speaker 1: to kind of be a you know, a hard hit
Speaker 1: game that's going to be relatively close. All right, let's
Speaker 1: move on to your third pick.
Speaker 2: What do you got another marketplay for me? Raiders minus
Speaker 2: two over the Lions. To me, these are two average
Speaker 2: teams that have a little bit of upside. Just hang
Speaker 2: three in this game and let it sit. But the
Speaker 2: Raiders are just getting no love from the market despite
Speaker 2: covering three out of their last four games. And if
Speaker 2: you look at that Packers game that Derek Carr almost
Speaker 2: called him David almost called him, David, But I don't
Speaker 2: do it.
Speaker 1: Don't do it.
Speaker 2: That Derek Carr fumble touchback was really a game changer
Speaker 2: in a game where the Raiders were competitive. It was
Speaker 2: kind of a fake blowout for the Packers. Again, Dvoa
Speaker 2: has these two teams close. Lions fourteenth and overall efficiency
Speaker 2: Raiders right there in seventeenth. And this is a great
Speaker 2: homecoming for a team that's been on the road since
Speaker 2: September fifteenth, that's forty nine days come Sunday. Their only
Speaker 2: quote unquote home game was played in North London at
Speaker 2: Tottenham Stadium. Come on you Spurs, big game against Everton
Speaker 2: this weekend. This is defense sold separately too. Both teams
Speaker 2: in the bottom third Lions fifth and pass efficiency according
Speaker 2: to DVA Raiders sixth, and we've got some real problems
Speaker 2: here in this Lion secondary. They traded away KWANJ. Driggs. Thankfully,
Speaker 2: Darius Slay's back at practice today on Wednesday, but Tracy Walker,
Speaker 2: the safety, the second safety, went out with an injury
Speaker 2: to his knee against the Giants, did not practice today,
Speaker 2: so they might be out without Digs, without Walker and
Speaker 2: a limping Darius Sligh. So points galore in this game,
Speaker 2: and just give me the home team giving less than
Speaker 2: a field goal in the spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I would say that I don't love it,
Speaker 1: but I like it in this one. I think the Raiders,
Speaker 1: I'll be fully honest. When I first saw this line
Speaker 1: on Monday, which actually was less than it is now,
Speaker 1: I think it was maybe minus one. It surprised me
Speaker 1: a little bit, and that is me really just not
Speaker 1: giving the Raiders enough credit for what they are. I
Speaker 1: took them in that game against the Packers. I don't
Speaker 1: remember if that was one of my picks, but I
Speaker 1: think they were getting you know, four and a half
Speaker 1: by the end because a lot of sharp money came
Speaker 1: in on the Raiders, and yeah, they got blown out,
Speaker 1: but they really shouldn't have. It was that fumble, and
Speaker 1: they were in the red zone a couple of other
Speaker 1: times and turned it over, so that game could have
Speaker 1: been a lot closer than it was. Their offensive line
Speaker 1: is playing extremely well, Josh Jacobs is doing good things,
Speaker 1: and again you know, now that Tyroll Williams is back,
Speaker 1: it gives car another option after Darren Waller out there.
Speaker 1: So yeah, with all with the Lions, who I also
Speaker 1: feel like generally been underrated. I mean, they didn't cover
Speaker 1: against the Giants, though I agree, you know, their defense
Speaker 1: is just you know, beat up a little bit. If
Speaker 1: Slave plays, that certainly helps them. But in the end,
Speaker 1: I really don't hate it. I don't know whether or
Speaker 1: not I'll be able to pick if I had to
Speaker 1: choose a side, though I would choose the Raiders, So
Speaker 1: I definitely.
Speaker 2: Don't Hey talk about the O line real quick. Trent
Speaker 2: Brown came back last week after an injury, immediately graded
Speaker 2: as an eighty three point seven on PFF, and last
Speaker 2: week was the first time since preseason all five slated
Speaker 2: starters played on the offensive line. They were the highest
Speaker 2: rated they've been all season eighty six and pass blocking
Speaker 2: per PFF. So this is a well coached, well executing
Speaker 2: unit right now. That is the healthiest it's been all season.
Speaker 2: So I think this is the best value you might
Speaker 2: get on this Raiders team all season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, I have no problems with the offense.
Speaker 1: It's much more about the defense, which I think again
Speaker 1: the Lions they do have no they're just completely abandoning
Speaker 1: pretending to try to run the ball. You know, they
Speaker 1: at least tried with Kerry on Johnson in there, but
Speaker 1: they're just kind of giving that up right now and
Speaker 1: going with the smorgasboard of you know whoever they've gotten
Speaker 1: there with Trey Carson and Ty Johnson, and it's not
Speaker 1: really going to work. So they are just going to
Speaker 1: be passing, which is fine, but you make them one dimensional,
Speaker 1: and you know, the Raiders should at least be able
Speaker 1: to hang with them. So I don't mind it considering
Speaker 1: their home, you know, giving less than field goal. Let's
Speaker 1: move on to my final pick, which is the Colts
Speaker 1: laying one to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. I didn't get
Speaker 1: this line when it opened. I don't get it now,
Speaker 1: I will not get it tomorrow. I think the Steelers
Speaker 1: defense is solid. It's not spectacular, but it's very solid,
Speaker 1: particularly since they added Minka Fitzpatrick. They get a ton
Speaker 1: of interceptions in sacks, but you can throw on them,
Speaker 1: as Fitzpatrick showed pretty easily that you can put up
Speaker 1: points against them right at the outset on Mondays on
Speaker 1: Monday Night. The Colts passing offense, you know, it's been
Speaker 1: generally good. Jacoby Brissett has fit in well for Andrew Luck.
Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a mixed bag generally, but
Speaker 1: for the most part, the passing game has been working.
Speaker 1: And they're also the Steelers, I'll give them that. They're
Speaker 1: also in addition to good against the past, they're good
Speaker 1: against the run all right. They hold opposing teams to
Speaker 1: really low yars per carry average. But the Colts have
Speaker 1: won the best defensive lines in the league. Marlon Mack
Speaker 1: has run really well. I don't expect them to get
Speaker 1: shut down here. But the problem with the Steelers is really,
Speaker 1: for me, their offense. It's not at all impressive. Under
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph, he's been extremely subpar. He doesn't push the
Speaker 1: ball down field enough. He struggled for the most part
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins. He was largely bailed out by Juju
Speaker 1: Smith Schuster making leaping catches and some ridiculous defensive decisions
Speaker 1: that freed up Deontay Johnson on a third and twenty
Speaker 1: when the Dolphins called the blitz. They Steelers rank near
Speaker 1: the bottom of the league in passing and their run
Speaker 1: game is good, but they're really banged up. Connor as
Speaker 1: the shoulder injury, Benny Snell jered his knee, Jalen Samuels
Speaker 1: is just coming back off the knee injury. I Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Colts defense is very solid on both sides of
Speaker 1: the ball. They get pressure on the quarterback consistently. They've
Speaker 1: got nineteen sacks on the year, and the Steelers are
Speaker 1: good at protecting Rudolph. But I imagine there's going to be
Speaker 1: some happy feat and the Colts are also solid against
Speaker 1: the run. Their overall numbers are a little misleading because
Speaker 1: they've been without Darius Leonard for a few games. But
Speaker 1: they've allowed just eighty three yards rushing per game over
Speaker 1: their last three games. So I think they're really doing well.
Speaker 1: And this just seems like to me, the Colts are
Speaker 1: a clearly better team. I get that they're on the road,
Speaker 1: and I realized that they nearly lost last week against
Speaker 1: the Broncos. But first, the Broncos are not nearly as
Speaker 1: bad as their record indicates. They could easily have won
Speaker 1: three of the games that they lost, but it was
Speaker 1: really just a weird game. The Colts are rarely penalized,
Speaker 1: and I think they might have gotten hit with ten
Speaker 1: penalties last week. It was crazy. I'm basically throwing it out.
Speaker 1: You add to that the fact that the Steelers are
Speaker 1: on a short week and as I said, they're banged up,
Speaker 1: especially at running back. It's hard for me to steal
Speaker 1: to see the Steelers coming out ahead of this one.
Speaker 1: So given the Colts laying.
Speaker 2: One, love this, absolutely love it. You know I've you've
Speaker 2: sniped this from me. You gotta you snuck it in
Speaker 2: before I could take it. Look, the Colts offensive line
Speaker 2: is going to be good enough to neutralize this Steelers
Speaker 2: pass rush, which is phenomenal first in DVA fourth on
Speaker 2: Pro Football Focus. Jacoby Brissett is going to have enough
Speaker 2: time to operate in this offense. And traditionally the Steelers
Speaker 2: tend to be more of a zone team. Now they've
Speaker 2: tried to change that this year right by bringing in
Speaker 2: Minka Fitzpatrick and drafting a linebacker early so that they
Speaker 2: could play more man concept. But I still think that
Speaker 2: Bersett's going to be able to stand back there and
Speaker 2: make the correct read in this game. And on the
Speaker 2: other side of the ball, Mason Rudolph is horrendous getting
Speaker 2: great protection on Monday night. He's just the first interception,
Speaker 2: he had a beautiful pocket. He sat back there and
Speaker 2: patted the ball for several seconds before making the worst
Speaker 2: decision possible and handing the ball to the Dolphins. You
Speaker 2: can do that against the historically bad team and get
Speaker 2: away with the victory and they damn near covered fourteen
Speaker 2: in the process as well, But you can't do that
Speaker 2: against a good football team, and that's what the Colts are.
Speaker 2: And beyond all of this, this is one of the
Speaker 2: largest coaching this matches you'll see this weekend. Mike Tomlin
Speaker 2: against frank Reich. Frank Reich was the architect of everything
Speaker 2: that the Eagles did, and he's taken a Colt's roster
Speaker 2: and elevated it to a point where it should not
Speaker 2: be post Andrew Locke. So yeah, the Colts, this will
Speaker 2: steam up closer to three. I don't think it'll ever
Speaker 2: get to the key number of three. But if you
Speaker 2: like the Colts in the spot, you should take them
Speaker 2: as soon as possible.
Speaker 1: So you know, you make that point. But why hasn't
Speaker 1: it moved yet? I mean it was basically I mean,
Speaker 1: I think it was a pick em maybe the look
Speaker 1: aheadline when it first came out. But it hasn't moved significantly.
Speaker 1: You think there's gonna be a ton of sharply because
Speaker 1: it makes me nervous when I look at a line
Speaker 1: like this, I'm like, no, no, no, this is incorrect,
Speaker 1: and it's not moving significantly. I mean the number I'm
Speaker 1: looking just sort of at the amount of money that's
Speaker 1: being put on it, and you know, the number of
Speaker 1: bets the money being put on it is essentially less
Speaker 1: in terms of percentages than the number of bets, So
Speaker 1: you know, are we missing something here? Is because I
Speaker 1: really would have expected this to move by now.
Speaker 2: I definitely love the way you're thinking about this. Right,
Speaker 2: If something seems too good to be true, it probably isn't.
Speaker 2: One game that's like that this week is we haven't
Speaker 2: touched upon? Is the Packers Chargers right like sharing at
Speaker 2: that number? And you're like, why aren't the Packers like
Speaker 2: mind session exactly, and why isn't it steaming tremendously in
Speaker 2: that direction? So I definitely understand those concerns. But I
Speaker 2: think when you're working with numbers between the field goals, right,
Speaker 2: and again, I don't think this number will ever get
Speaker 2: to three. I think eventually it'll creep up as they
Speaker 2: try to get more money on Steelers to balance the
Speaker 2: books a little bit. I think our concerns can be
Speaker 2: levied a little bit because it's it's not near a
Speaker 2: key number. It won't reach a key number. I think
Speaker 2: as long as it doesn't steam through pick right then,
Speaker 2: I think, you know, alarm bells should be going up.
Speaker 2: Right now, I think we're okay.
Speaker 1: All right that I think that that's fine. And again,
Speaker 1: that is the obvious point. When you're not going through
Speaker 1: the key numbers, it doesn't really matter if it's plus
Speaker 1: one if it's plus two, it's a kind of irrelevant
Speaker 1: at this point. It just seems to me that, you know,
Speaker 1: I would want to hammer this number right now at
Speaker 1: plus one, so I would feel like, you know, or
Speaker 1: at minus one, so I feel like in the end,
Speaker 1: I'm just surprised that they're leaving it there and that
Speaker 1: they aren't getting quite as much money at this point.
Speaker 1: But again, we'll seek and you know, I'm certainly confident
Speaker 1: enough in it to pick it now. All right, So
Speaker 1: let's recap here, Rich, You're gonna take the Redskins getting
Speaker 1: ten from the Bills, the Bears getting five from the Eagles,
Speaker 1: and the Raiders laying two to the Lions. I'm going
Speaker 1: to take the Jets and Dolphins over forty one and
Speaker 1: a half, the Colts laying one to the Steelers, and
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Speaker 1: to It's a trap, where we list the line that
Speaker 1: we are avoiding. Go ahead and start us off.
Speaker 2: Oh Man, just talking about this team gives me eggzema.
Speaker 2: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I talked about Yo Yo's earlier
Speaker 2: with regards to the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Bucks. You
Speaker 2: never know when you're going to get the good Jamis
Speaker 2: or the bad Jamis. And he's been a player that
Speaker 2: whenever I've got him or whenever I'm fading him. It
Speaker 2: seems to me that it's just the exact opposite is
Speaker 2: going to happen. And from a pure numbers standpoint, analyzing
Speaker 2: this game, looking how poor Seattle has been at home,
Speaker 2: they failed to cover in four games that week, one
Speaker 2: game against the Bengals. The Bengals are one of the
Speaker 2: worst teams in football, and somehow they stuck with them
Speaker 2: at CenturyLink. The Hawks secondary is no longer the legion
Speaker 2: of boom. You should for sure be taking this six
Speaker 2: and a half or six whatever number you're getting. Classic
Speaker 2: tickets are on the Seahawks sixty percent. Clip money is
Speaker 2: on the Bucks sixty eight percent. Clip Everything is telling
Speaker 2: you take Tampa Bay, but I can't do it.
Speaker 1: I can't.
Speaker 2: I can't go near the bucks Man. So that is
Speaker 2: why Ironstaingle.
Speaker 1: First of all, I was legitimately about to say, you
Speaker 1: have completely misunderstood the point of this exercise, because everything
Speaker 1: you were saying, I thought We're gonna come up and
Speaker 1: be like, you gotta take the Bucks. That's I'm asporting
Speaker 1: to say. I was like, no, you can't, that's not
Speaker 1: what we do in this section. So I've done this show.
Speaker 1: I don't know how many shows we've done at this point,
Speaker 1: thirty forty, whatever it is, and almost every show I say, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm staying away from whatever. The Bucks. When
Speaker 1: the Bucks played the Titans, it was perfect because those
Speaker 1: are two teams that I said to like, I don't know,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not going anywhere near them. I agree,
Speaker 1: this line looks pretty nice, it looks good for the Bucks.
Speaker 1: But no, you can't ever trust Jameis Winston. You can't
Speaker 1: trust anything that they're doing whatsoever. I mean, I'm completely
Speaker 1: in agreement with you on this one because you just
Speaker 1: don't know which one is going to shut up a
Speaker 1: show up.
Speaker 2: So you know what you do with the Bucks, You
Speaker 2: just bet weird adjusted lines like bet Hawks minus twenty
Speaker 2: and Bucks minus seven, Like those are those who are
Speaker 2: what you should be betting in this game, because they are.
Speaker 2: They just have all these outlier outcomes every single game.
Speaker 2: You don't know what direction it's going to be, but
Speaker 2: it's certainly going to be some sort of outline.
Speaker 1: You are a genius. I love that strategy, but in
Speaker 1: the meantime, do not take anything on the Bucks getting
Speaker 1: six in this game. As for me, I am going
Speaker 1: to avoid the Pats laying three to the Ravens. Now
Speaker 1: this line has been steadily moving towards the Ravens all week.
Speaker 1: I completely get why Patriots offense does not look dominant.
Speaker 1: The Ravens are at home in prime time off of bye,
Speaker 1: where John Harbaugh is great at getting his team going.
Speaker 1: And the thing is, when I look at the game,
Speaker 1: especially with Hollywood Brown looking likely to play here, I
Speaker 1: do think it favors the Ravens, or at least it
Speaker 1: did when they were getting more than a field goal.
Speaker 1: But I kind of think the Patriots blow up all
Speaker 1: narratives and expectations at this point. The defense is legitimate,
Speaker 1: and when you have a quarterback like Lamar Jackson's primary
Speaker 1: weapon is his legs, I just think that that is
Speaker 1: something that Bill Belijack can find a way to scheme around.
Speaker 1: So first, I think that all the value has kind
Speaker 1: of been sucked away now that the line is down
Speaker 1: to an even field goal. But even if I did
Speaker 1: see value, I would stay away because I just don't
Speaker 1: see how you can possibly bet against the Patriots giving
Speaker 1: anything within four points at this point, given that they've
Speaker 1: There's just been so much value the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: you know, when you looked at the and you looked
Speaker 1: at the Browns and those spreads, and there was so
Speaker 1: much value, and sharp betters have been all over those
Speaker 1: plays and the Patriots have still covered. So for me,
Speaker 1: I understand why there's a lot of sharp money coming
Speaker 1: in on the Ravens. It was that I like them
Speaker 1: at four, but I still would not have bet them almost.
Speaker 1: You know, it's sort of the opposite with Winston. You
Speaker 1: don't know what you're gonna get with Winston. I know
Speaker 1: what I'm gonna get with the Patriots, and it scares
Speaker 1: the bejeebas out of me, and I just don't feel
Speaker 1: comfortable betting against them. So I'm avoiding the Patriots. Laying
Speaker 1: three did the Ravens.
Speaker 2: Every week, people tell me this is the spot, this
Speaker 2: is the spot to fade the Patriots. Last week we
Speaker 2: were doing our Super Contest show Brett Colson mo Noir.
Speaker 2: This is absolutely the spot to take the Browns and
Speaker 2: fade the Patriots. But spoiler alert, it's never the spot
Speaker 2: to fade the Patriots. They get some weird muffed punt
Speaker 2: or some weird last week Nick Chubb alignment karate kicks
Speaker 2: the ball out of his hands and it turns into
Speaker 2: a Patriots defensive score. These things are almost predictive now
Speaker 2: for the New England Patriots, and it's just never the
Speaker 2: spot to fade them. Even as all the money poured
Speaker 2: in on Cleveland last week and that number steamed through
Speaker 2: the key number of ten and down to nine, it
Speaker 2: did not matter. You don't make money fading, Bill Belichick.
Speaker 2: You never have, you never will. And like the Bucks,
Speaker 2: the Patriots are the ultimate stay away from me unless
Speaker 2: I'm betting on them, because I'm just done with fading
Speaker 2: the Pats at all costs.
Speaker 1: And as someone who did take the Browns getting thirteen
Speaker 1: in the super contest this past week, I completely agree
Speaker 1: with that. You just can't at this point anymore.
Speaker 2: I mean, you always walk away, You always walk away
Speaker 2: thinking that you were on the right side.
Speaker 1: Of course I was on the right And it doesn't
Speaker 1: mean it's a bad bet when you lose, right, of course,
Speaker 1: that's not really what you're necessarily doing. Just because you lose,
Speaker 1: it doesn't necessarily make it a bad bet. And I'm
Speaker 1: sure the sharp better is aren't gonna be like man, man,
Speaker 1: why was I doing that? You know what I mean?
Speaker 1: That's not the way it works. But still no, run
Speaker 1: far away completely from anything involving the Patriots at the moments.
Speaker 1: All right, so you're avoiding the Bucks getting six from
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, I'm avoiding the Ravens getting three from the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Before we get into our final segment, remember we've got
Speaker 1: a signed Odell Beckham junior helmet giveaway contests going on.
Speaker 1: Get more details over at bettingpros dot com slash contest,
Speaker 1: but to be entered, just leave very review for the
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Speaker 1: five dollars voucher. All right, Rich, time for Top prop
Speaker 1: where we list our top player prop of the week.
Speaker 2: Start us off, Well, you called me with my pants
Speaker 2: down before we started the show. I forgot about this,
Speaker 2: But while we were recording here, I initially had a
Speaker 2: prop in there which was a little bit wild. I
Speaker 2: had Mitch Trubisky overpassing yards two fifty decent value at
Speaker 2: plus one eleven, and it correlates if you like Bears
Speaker 2: plus five. But I'm going to pivot to a game
Speaker 2: that actually you just selected, and that's Patriots Ravens and
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick. His method is always to kill the snake,
Speaker 2: you take off the head, and in this case it
Speaker 2: would be Lamar Jackson. I'm going to take the under
Speaker 2: on fifty nine and a half rushing yards from Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 2: That is a suspiciously low number. And I do believe
Speaker 2: that in these scenarios where you have very low outlier
Speaker 2: type prop lines even totals as well, that you usually
Speaker 2: want to go on the side that it's on. In
Speaker 2: this case, it's low, So your mind is saying take
Speaker 2: the over, but I in fact would take the under.
Speaker 2: That's what the Patriots are going to focus on in
Speaker 2: this game, right, They're going to make Lamar Jackson throw
Speaker 2: against the secondary they're going to build a wall with
Speaker 2: their front seven, not allow him to get out and scamper.
Speaker 2: You look at the way they defended Leveon Bell. Historically,
Speaker 2: Leveon likes to take those two steps and then stop
Speaker 2: and then read the zone blocking scheme and then go
Speaker 2: from there. Well, if you watch how the Patriots defended him, historically,
Speaker 2: they don't get up the field on Leveon. They don't
Speaker 2: fire into their gaps and then react to him. They
Speaker 2: kind of just stand up and hold their positions and
Speaker 2: then fall into the zone wherever he's running. So if
Speaker 2: you watch, Leveon never got tackled for loss a lot
Speaker 2: against the Patriots because they didn't want to get upfield. Rather,
Speaker 2: they would stop him, you know, two yards down the field,
Speaker 2: three yards and make him ineffective in that fashion. And
Speaker 2: I think I don't care that John Harbaugh had an
Speaker 2: extra week to prepare this for this game. I think
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick is somebody who's been scheming for Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: the entire season, knowing how important this game will be
Speaker 2: and how important their future playoff game might be. So
Speaker 2: with all that being said, give me the under on
Speaker 2: fifty nine and a half rushing yards for Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1: I really really like it for the reasons that you're saying.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know that Bell Jacks's gonna be like,
Speaker 1: if we're gonna get big by Lamar Jackson throwing the ball,
Speaker 1: I will live with that. But he's gonna take away
Speaker 1: what they do best. That's what he does every single time.
Speaker 1: My only concern with it is that I think with
Speaker 1: a guy like Jackson who basically can have a broken
Speaker 1: play and somehow find a way to scamper for a
Speaker 1: big number, you know what I mean, And I take
Speaker 1: a lot of QB rushing props. I don't know why.
Speaker 1: Like I always see when I do my projections, which
Speaker 1: I do a lot, especially for fantasy football, if I
Speaker 1: find a number that I think is just drastically different
Speaker 1: than what I'm getting on the prop, which I do often,
Speaker 1: I will take them. But it's scary with a guy
Speaker 1: like Jackson because again, they can hold him totally in check.
Speaker 1: It's like when you would bet against Tyreek Hill ever right,
Speaker 1: like you can hold him totally in check, and then
Speaker 1: there's one play that's just gonna go off despite the
Speaker 1: fact that they schemes so well. So that would be
Speaker 1: my only worry for it, but I agree it seems
Speaker 1: like a low number, but I do like it because
Speaker 1: you know that's exactly what they're gonna do.
Speaker 2: For sure, it puts the fury go out of me
Speaker 2: seeing his rushing totals so far this year one sixteen,
Speaker 2: one fifty two, seventy sixty six, forty six and one
Speaker 2: twenty like of course, you know this is this is
Speaker 2: why speaking of fantasy, Lamar has so much value. He's
Speaker 2: got the Konami code. He gets those one point for
Speaker 2: ten yards rushing. But I just trust in the goat,
Speaker 2: and that is Bill Belichick to keep him contained.
Speaker 1: I can't blame him. I as I said, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: get a little bolder on this one since I've been
Speaker 1: hitting a bunch. I'm gonna I'm gonna try to ride
Speaker 1: the wave here. And look, you and I talked about
Speaker 1: that Jets Dolphins game and why like the over, and
Speaker 1: one of the things I think is gonna happen is
Speaker 1: that a couple of Jets playmakers are gonna have big games,
Speaker 1: and one of them is going to be Robbie Anderson,
Speaker 1: who is going to go over one hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: five receiving yards and the odds are plus four twenty five.
Speaker 1: So let's make that clear. This is not something that
Speaker 1: I'm necessarily expecting to happen. He has done it twice
Speaker 1: in his entire career, so this is certainly something where
Speaker 1: the only reason to take it is because you are
Speaker 1: getting more than four to one on your money. But again,
Speaker 1: the Jets offense, this is you know, to the extent
Speaker 1: the Jets offense can quote unquote get right. This is
Speaker 1: what they're going to do here. Without Xavian Howard, it's
Speaker 1: going to be there's nobody who's really going to be
Speaker 1: able to hang with him. You saw against the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: you know, I think it was a ninety two yard
Speaker 1: touchdown catch. They he can have an explosive play at
Speaker 1: any given time. They do have chemistry, which they showed
Speaker 1: last year. And this is completely anecdotal, so it really
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. But you know, there were all these trade
Speaker 1: rumors and you expected him to go, and you know,
Speaker 1: you have the trade rumors with someone like Jamal Adams
Speaker 1: who doesn't get traded and is now really angry, really
Speaker 1: angry at being dangled. After the trade deadline passed, Robbie
Speaker 1: Anderson put out a great tweet where he took the
Speaker 1: scene from The Wolf of Wall Street where Leonardo DiCaprio
Speaker 1: is basically saying I'm not going anywhere. I'm not going
Speaker 1: like a very sort of adamant thing, and the Jets
Speaker 1: liked it, you know, on the Jets Twitter feed liked it.
Speaker 1: I just feel like this is something where you know,
Speaker 1: a guy like Adams, you might get a little worried
Speaker 1: about how he's going to react to this. Robbie, I
Speaker 1: don't think so. Robbie strikes me as the type of
Speaker 1: guy who's gonna want to say, that's right, you held me,
Speaker 1: you did the right thing here. I think this is
Speaker 1: just going to be a smash spot for Le'Veon Bell.
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a smash spot for Robbie Anderson.
Speaker 1: So one hundred and twenty five is a big number.
Speaker 1: As I said, he's only done it twice, but at
Speaker 1: plus four to twenty five, that's a that's a number
Speaker 1: that's value enough for me to go with it. So
Speaker 1: I'll take Anderson over one hundred and twenty five receiving
Speaker 1: yards against the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: I love the narrative. Take let me pile on Robbie
Speaker 2: Anderson's a South Florida guy. Went to South Plantation High
Speaker 2: right in Broward County, so he's a homecoming for him.
Speaker 2: He'll have family at the game, he'll want to show out.
Speaker 2: Let's go. This is you know what this is. This
Speaker 2: is so funny. We're two just miserable Jets fans, and
Speaker 2: despite everything we've seen this season, we are somehow optimistic
Speaker 2: about I mean.
Speaker 1: To be fair, they're playing a historically terrible team that
Speaker 1: has no interest in winning. And even if the Dolphins
Speaker 1: get out ahead, they stop playing in the second half.
Speaker 1: I mean that that is what it is. They'll just
Speaker 1: be like, shoot, we're winning. We got to find a
Speaker 1: way to screw this all up, and so you know
Speaker 1: there'll be something. But I agree. This is the most
Speaker 1: optimistic take on the Jets for two Jets fans that
Speaker 1: have probably ever been in the history of any sports
Speaker 1: betting show. So hopefully we'll be right for this one.
Speaker 1: But you know, we've got a long way to go
Speaker 1: before we're going to be really happy watching our team. Well,
Speaker 1: thanks for joining me today. Rich. Remind everyone where they
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can check us out on Twitter at grid
Speaker 2: Iron Gamble. The Gridiron Gable podcast. Every week we put
Speaker 2: together a super contest card amongst the four of us.
Speaker 2: You can download the pod listen on any podcast platforms iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify,
Speaker 2: what have you. We come out every Thursday and every
Speaker 2: Tuesday morning, so check us out and tail us if
Speaker 2: you are super brave and crazy. How about that?
Speaker 1: All right? Thanks again for coming on the show. Rich
Speaker 1: hope we can do it at least one more time
Speaker 1: before the end of the season.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, we love to.
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Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers. This weekend, we'll be back
Speaker 1: breaking down the early lines for week ten. I'm mine