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Speaker 1: Hey everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi.

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Speaker 1: It is time to break down some of our favorite

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Speaker 1: and least favorite bets for the Week nine NFL slate

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Speaker 1: and with me to talk about it all is Rich

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Speaker 1: Ryan hosted the grid Iron Gamble podcast. You can find

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Speaker 1: Rich on Twitter at rich t Ryan Rich. You and

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Speaker 1: I spoke all the way back in Week four, I believe,

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Speaker 1: so it's been a while. How you doing doing great?

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Speaker 2: We're here on the eve of Halloween, one of the

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Speaker 2: most fun holidays here in the United States, where even

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Speaker 2: adults get to dress up in costumes and walk around

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Speaker 2: the neighborhood and you.

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Speaker 1: Get dressed up, Rich, That's what I think the listeners want.

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Speaker 2: Know. Unfortunately, I do not. I don't work in a

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Speaker 2: traditional environment anywhere anymore where I go into an office

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Speaker 2: and there might be like an office party. I work

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Speaker 2: remotely and with a small team, so unfortunately I don't

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Speaker 2: have that avenue with which to have a Halloween party.

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Speaker 2: But I definitely am yearning to be a child again

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Speaker 2: and get dressed up.

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Speaker 1: So do you have children of your own rich I

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Speaker 1: do not not. Yes, So let me just give you

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Speaker 1: a very quick preview before we get into the show

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Speaker 1: of what is going to be like. At some point,

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Speaker 1: your Halloween will no longer be dominated by like, oh

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Speaker 1: do I wear a costume or not? Your Halloween will

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Speaker 1: be dominated by the forecast says it's supposed to rain.

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Speaker 1: Is our small suburban town going to cancel trick or

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Speaker 1: trening entirely because of the rain? Or is it not?

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Speaker 1: And how are we supposed to deal with that? That

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Speaker 1: is what I have been dealing with for the last

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Speaker 1: four hours.

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Speaker 2: So doesn't Halloween now have like a set time, like, yes,

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Speaker 2: this is when treating happens from the five to seven thirty.

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Speaker 1: Five to seven thirty.

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Speaker 2: It's a narrow window to get canned, it really is.

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Speaker 1: And if you ring a bell before them, they will

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Speaker 1: yell at you and say it has not started yet,

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Speaker 1: even no matter how c how cute your kids look.

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Speaker 1: So anyway, we could talk about Halloween forever, but I

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Speaker 1: think people probably we want to hear about some gambling advice,

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Speaker 1: so let's do that before we get into it. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's do some full disclosure. As always, I missed hard

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Speaker 1: on the Panthers getting six from the forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: last week, and I missed not as hard but still

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Speaker 1: hard on the Chiefs getting three and a half from

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Speaker 1: the Packers last week. I did hit on the Bears

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Speaker 1: and the Chargers under forty as well as Deontay Johnson

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Speaker 1: over seventy five receiving yards at plus one ninety. I

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Speaker 1: think that's the fourth straight game that I hit on

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Speaker 1: my top prop, so I'm gonna get a little bolder

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Speaker 1: this week now. Our guest Ian McMillan had a good week,

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Speaker 1: hitting on the Eagles plus one and a half against

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Speaker 1: the Bills and the Broncos getting five and a half

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Speaker 1: from the Colts, as well as his top prop of

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Speaker 1: Aaron Jones over seventy five yards, which he basically doubled.

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Speaker 1: His only miss was the Jets and Jaguars under forty one,

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Speaker 1: and as a jetsman, I will take full responsibility for that.

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Speaker 1: So not the worst week overall, but we can do better.

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Speaker 1: Rich Now you're gonna hear us make a few picks

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Speaker 1: on the show, But if you want to see more

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Speaker 1: of my picks, or more of any sports betting experts picks,

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Speaker 1: just go to Beddingpros dot com. You can see who's

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Speaker 1: picking any game. You'll see experts giving notes on their picks.

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Speaker 1: You can see how only the most accurate experts are picking. Basically,

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Speaker 1: it does all the work for you. Also, Rich and

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Speaker 1: I are going to be using the Betting Pros dot

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Speaker 1: Com consensus ods, which are the aggregate odds available in

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Speaker 1: the market. So, as always, we're going to get started

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Speaker 1: with pick six, where both Rich and I are going

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Speaker 1: to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend,

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Speaker 1: either against the spread or on the over, on or

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Speaker 1: all right, Rich, I've talked enough, start us off what

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Speaker 1: you got.

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Speaker 2: Let's start in the Northeast with a team that your

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Speaker 2: guest ian faded last week, and I guess we're fading

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Speaker 2: them again. I've got Washington plus ten against those pesky Bills,

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Speaker 2: and this is a great number if you can get

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Speaker 2: it at ten. I am seeing it across the board

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Speaker 2: on the Betting Pros against the spread portal, but nine

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Speaker 2: and a half elsewhere. So if you can get ten,

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Speaker 2: I suggest you run, don't walk to the window, to

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Speaker 2: take this number. Games like this are very interesting when

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Speaker 2: there is a high spread and a low total. In fact,

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Speaker 2: this decade. When the total is below forty and the

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Speaker 2: dog is getting between ten and fourteen points, they're covering

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Speaker 2: at a fifty nine percent clip. And it makes sense.

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Speaker 2: If you've got two really grindy teams that are supposed

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Speaker 2: to play a low scoring game, how do you expect

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Speaker 2: one team to get out ahead and extend the lead

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Speaker 2: enough to cover such a large number. In addition to that,

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you squint, are these teams that much different?

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Speaker 2: The Bills are definitely more talented, but Football Outsiders has

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Speaker 2: these two teams extremely close and overall efficiency, the Bills

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Speaker 2: at twenty fifth and the Washington around there as well,

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Speaker 2: and the Washington football team. They're bad, of course, but

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Speaker 2: they're a professional team. If you look at that Vikings game,

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Speaker 2: they didn't lay down like the Bengals or the Dolphins.

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Speaker 2: They competed the entire game. Bill Callahan wants to run

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Speaker 2: the ball, which is great in a scenario like this

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Speaker 2: because it limits the amount of possessions. It limits the

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Speaker 2: amount of opportunities for the Bills to get the ball

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Speaker 2: and score. So this is just way too many points

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Speaker 2: for a Bills team that doesn't stretch the field vertically

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Speaker 2: and kind of wants to play a grindy, low pace,

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Speaker 2: low scoring game. So give me the Washington professional football

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Speaker 2: team getting ten points.

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Speaker 1: All right, So here's what I'm gonna say about it.

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Speaker 2: You may we're gonna say Dwayne Haskins that that is

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Speaker 2: exactly what I'm going to exactly.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So first of all, and correct me if I'm wrong.

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Speaker 1: I've had a busy day, so I have not seen

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Speaker 1: it yet. Last I saw Keenum was still in the

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Speaker 1: concussion protocol. Do you have any update on that? Is

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Speaker 1: he out of it yet? I have not seen it

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Speaker 1: because he had not practice.

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Speaker 2: Still in the protocol, and when they're in the protocol,

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Speaker 2: they're listed as at practice but in a limited fashion,

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Speaker 2: but still in the protocol. If Haskins plays, am I

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Speaker 2: a little queasy about this? Absolutely? But in the two

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Speaker 2: games we've seen Haskins play, to be fair to the

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Speaker 2: rook it's been in relief, right, He's been taking secondary

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Speaker 2: snaps and being thrown into a game while it's in action. Right.

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Speaker 2: We would hope for a better performance against the Giants.

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Speaker 2: That secondary is a mess. But with a full week

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Speaker 2: of practice. Look, I'm not telling you Dwayne Haskins is

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Speaker 2: going to come out here and be Tom Brady right,

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Speaker 2: But I think, what's the difference between him and case Keenum?

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Speaker 2: Can it be that large? Is that even possible? I

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Speaker 2: don't think so, I do, I really do, like I honestly.

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Speaker 1: Look, I first of all, I'll put it like this.

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Speaker 1: If it's Keenum, I love the Dead. I completely agree.

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Speaker 1: I mean the total, it's thirty seven. I mean, you're right,

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Speaker 1: how many points do exactly expect the Bills to score?

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Speaker 1: I mean that's a you know, a twenty three and

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Speaker 1: a half, thirteen and a half, you know, imply total

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Speaker 1: over there. I don't see that. I agree, And the

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Speaker 1: one thing with the Redskins is they have a decent defense,

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Speaker 1: you know, especially their their front seven, you know, and

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Speaker 1: it's not like Josh Allen's able to pass all over

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Speaker 1: everybody because he's incredibly inaccurate. So I agree, I don't

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Speaker 1: really see them putting up a ton of points, and

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Speaker 1: the Redskins, when Keenum has been in there, have at

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Speaker 1: least been able to be competent offensively. But I have

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Speaker 1: to be honest, you make a fair point. Both games

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Speaker 1: Haskins was in relief, but the whole point of bringing

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Speaker 1: him in relief in that Giants game was to be like,

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Speaker 1: here's a layup for you, dude, and he, to me

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Speaker 1: just looks not in any way ready whatsoever? I mean

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Speaker 1: against the Vikings, I get it. Of course they're a

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Speaker 1: good defense. But he was you know, the overthrow to

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Speaker 1: McLaurin just really you know, killed me when I watched

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Speaker 1: it because it's just, you know, his elbow. They were

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Speaker 1: talking about his elbow so low, everything's sort of flying up.

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Speaker 1: So if he gets the start, and it's the reason

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Speaker 1: why I would not feel comfortable taking it yet. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you seem to think that the difference between Haskins and

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Speaker 1: Keenum is essentially not negligible but minor. For me, that

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Speaker 1: is something that I think that I would be hesitant

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Speaker 1: to take it if Keenum starts. I want to make

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Speaker 1: it clear, I really like it, So if you get

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Speaker 1: good news on that, but for me.

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Speaker 2: But do we think the books would give themselves this

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Speaker 2: much liability if they think there is that much of

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Speaker 2: a difference.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely not, Absolutely not correct.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Bills are getting most of the tickets and

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Speaker 2: most of the money right now, and if they think

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Speaker 2: there's that much of a liability of Haskins being quarterback,

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Speaker 2: and this number they think would go up, then I

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Speaker 2: don't think they'd list a number at all. So for

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Speaker 2: them to be bold enough to hang this number and

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Speaker 2: say whatever, go bet the bills, that gives me confidence

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Speaker 2: in taking Washington.

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Speaker 1: That's a really good point, because again, the Vikings and

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs have basically been off the board the whole week,

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Speaker 1: at least from what I can tell, right because you

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Speaker 1: don't know whether or not Mahomes is going to play,

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Speaker 1: and that makes a big difference. So I think that

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Speaker 1: that's a fair point, whether or not they think they

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Speaker 1: feel confident that Kingum is going to play, or whether

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Speaker 1: or not they think that the downgrade isn't that much.

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Speaker 1: But either way, I have no problem with it, because

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Speaker 1: I do think Kingdom's going to play at this point. Personally,

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Speaker 1: I'm not making my pick. I'm betting broths dot com

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Speaker 1: until I know who started to get quarterback. But I'm

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Speaker 1: a little hesitant and maybe a little jaded by the

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Speaker 1: fact that I was, you know, closely watching that Thursday

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Speaker 1: night game and horrified at what I saw. But he

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Speaker 1: has obviously been taking a lot of reps this week

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Speaker 1: at least, and he's had you know, ten days I'm

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Speaker 1: sure to get more familiar with everything. So okay, Washington

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Speaker 1: plus ten, I'll go there. I'm gonna take an equally

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Speaker 1: you know, boring game, and I'm going to take the

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Speaker 1: Jets and the Dolphins over forty one and a half.

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Speaker 1: So these are two teams that are both complete disasters

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Speaker 1: at the moment. The Jets have done almost nothing offensively

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Speaker 1: the last two games, but the real reason is just

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Speaker 1: that Sam Darnold is getting his butt kicked non stop.

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Speaker 1: The Jets offensive line is a complete disaster. So when

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Speaker 1: you put them up against the Patriots strong defensive line,

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Speaker 1: they're all over him. The Jaguars sacked him eight times,

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Speaker 1: and again, that's kind of what you expect from those teams.

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Speaker 1: The Pats are first in the league in sacks. The

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Speaker 1: Jaguars are third, of course, boyed by a little bit

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Speaker 1: of what they did against the Jets, but that's not

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Speaker 1: gonna be the case with the Dolphins. They have just

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Speaker 1: nine sacks on the season. That's second worst in the league,

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Speaker 1: tied with the Jets. Incidentally, they rarely get pressure, and

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Speaker 1: you've seen the Jets like competent offensively, at least against

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys. You're gonna see it again here. Leveon Bell

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Speaker 1: is going to have a big game. Robbie Anderson is

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Speaker 1: going to have a big game with Zami and Howard

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Speaker 1: now on Ir which was like the one guy in

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Speaker 1: the secondary, even though he was not playing particularly well

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Speaker 1: this year, the one guy in the secondary once they

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Speaker 1: got rid of Minka Fitzpatrick that you feared. Sam Darnold

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Speaker 1: is playing through a thumb spring, but it is his

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Speaker 1: left hand. I think he's gonna be fine. He's fully practicing.

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Speaker 1: So I think the Jets are gonna put up points here,

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Speaker 1: and I think so are the Dolphins. The offense looks

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Speaker 1: kind of competent with fits back out there, which he's

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Speaker 1: already been named the starter like the Dolphins. As I said,

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Speaker 1: the Jets get absolutely no pressure, just nine sacks, and

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Speaker 1: now they're down. Leonard Williams. C J. Mosley is probably

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Speaker 1: going to miss the rest of the season. He's obviously

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Speaker 1: not gonna play in this game. The secondary outside of

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Speaker 1: Jamal Adams is not great, and Adams is in full

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Speaker 1: drama mode. He basically, you know, is angry at the

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Speaker 1: prospect of getting traded. He refused a meeting with the

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Speaker 1: GM right now, so who even knows you know what

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Speaker 1: is going to happen with him this weekend. But either way,

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Speaker 1: in the end, it's two really terrible defenses and two

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Speaker 1: offenses that have enough playmakers to move the ball. So

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Speaker 1: for me, the over at forty one and a half

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Speaker 1: is my favorite bet of the weekend.

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Speaker 2: This is great and not only are the raw sacks

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Speaker 2: really low for the Dolphins, the advanced metrics absolutely hate

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Speaker 2: them as well. Twenty fifth in DVA pass rushing, thirty

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Speaker 2: second over on Pro Football Focus. And that is the

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Speaker 2: weakness on this Jets offense. You know, think of think,

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Speaker 2: think what you want about Darnold, but the kid can

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Speaker 2: throw the ball and these weapons are a little bit fresky.

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Speaker 2: Jameson Crowder is a guy that can work himself open.

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Speaker 2: If Chris Herndon comes back, he's going to be a

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Speaker 2: nice threat alongside Ryan Griffin, who's been just more than

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Speaker 2: a warm body running routes for this Jets offense. And

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Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball. On the grid

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Speaker 2: Iron Gamble podcast, we like to refer to Fitzpatrick as

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Speaker 2: Fitzpowder keg because the keg can blow at any time

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Speaker 2: and there is certainly a defensive touchdown to be had

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Speaker 2: in this game if Keg is just throwing the ball

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Speaker 2: all over the field against a very very agressive Greg

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Speaker 2: Williams defense. So yeah, I definitely like the over in

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Speaker 2: this spot, especially if we can look into one of

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Speaker 2: those defensive touchdowns Spy.

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Speaker 1: And don't don't forget I mean, you know, as it's

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Speaker 1: a great nickname for Fits, but he can move the ball.

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Speaker 1: I mean they scored on their opening two drives against

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Speaker 1: the Steelers pretty easily. You know, Fits was moving down

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Speaker 1: the field. And don't forget the narrative. This is one

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Speaker 1: of what's you know, I don't know how many revenge

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Speaker 1: games Fits can have. Yeah, it's got to be something.

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Speaker 1: So I agree. I think both teams are are really

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Speaker 1: going to put up some points here, and I think

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Speaker 1: it's going to hit this over pretty pretty well. So

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Speaker 1: I feel good about this one, and it's my number

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Speaker 1: one bet. All right, let's move on to your second pick.

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Speaker 1: What do you have? All right?

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Speaker 2: If we didn't like Dwayne Haskins putting real money on him,

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Speaker 2: let's get a little uglier and select the Chicago Bears

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Speaker 2: plus five traveling to Philadelphia to play the Eagles. To me,

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Speaker 2: and my third game will be like this as well,

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Speaker 2: this is very much a market play. This is a

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Speaker 2: three and a half point look aheadline. Preseason this line

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Speaker 2: was three. I don't know what the difference is really

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Speaker 2: between these two teams other than the fact that the

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Speaker 2: Bears have been embarrassed two straight weeks at home and

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Speaker 2: everybody thinks they're horrific and their stock is plummeting. And

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Speaker 2: the Eagles went to Buffalo and poured thirty on a

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Speaker 2: team that previous to that game only had one loss

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Speaker 2: at Philadelphia's lows have been very low this season. They

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Speaker 2: lost to the Falcons, they lost to six point favorites

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Speaker 2: at home to the Lions. Even when they beat up

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Speaker 2: on our stinky Jets, they only had four and a

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Speaker 2: half yards per play in that game. So this is

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Speaker 2: a stock high stock love spot where I really think

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Speaker 2: that we can take the Bears. And just looking at

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Speaker 2: the football analysis as well, Jason Peter's not playing today.

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Speaker 2: He's not practicing today, excuse me on Wednesday. He's not

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Speaker 2: played the last couple of games. And Andre Dillard, who

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Speaker 2: they drafted as a luxury to be a backup left tackle,

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Speaker 2: has really struggled. Struggled. Now he's gonna have Khalil Mack

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Speaker 2: lining up right in front of him. Even the double

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Speaker 2: team is gonna make that life hell for the rookie

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Speaker 2: on the left hand side. So give me the Bears

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Speaker 2: get right spot on the road, a bad secondary to

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Speaker 2: get Trubisky going a little bit, Matt and Agy scheming

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Speaker 2: some things up. I just think this is a point

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Speaker 2: maybe a point and a half.

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Speaker 1: Too high, all right, So I don't mind it whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: And it did move, you're right, even at the beginning

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Speaker 1: of the week. I think it was three and a

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Speaker 1: half or something like that. So it's been recent and

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Speaker 1: again a lot of it is from this weekend. But

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Speaker 1: you know, other than that last maybe sentence or two

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Speaker 1: that you threw in there, there's very little about the Bears'

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Speaker 1: offense going on. Do you think that they're going to

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Speaker 1: be able to put up point I know the Eagles

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Speaker 1: secondary is horrendous, but their run defense is good. And

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Speaker 1: you know David Montgomery, he was kind of the guy

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Speaker 1: last week. They finally went to him. So I get

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Speaker 1: completely about the Eagles having trouble scoring necessarily, But do

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Speaker 1: you think the Bears are going to be able to

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Speaker 1: put up points here?

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Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to do enough I trust

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Speaker 2: Nagy enough coming from that read coaching tree to scheme

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Speaker 2: up things against an Eagle secondary that is really really

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Speaker 2: struggling to cover. And Nigel Bradham you can add to

322
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Speaker 2: that injury report as well. He's a very good linebacker

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Speaker 2: for Philadelphia. So I mean, what do we need to

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Speaker 2: get to seventeen twenty points here to secure a cover?

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Speaker 2: I think Naggy and those guys can do it. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this Eagles team has been They're kind of the yo

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Speaker 2: yo team this year. Right. You kind of want to

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Speaker 2: fade them after they've looked great and bet on them

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Speaker 2: after they've looked terrible because the opposite is coming, and

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Speaker 2: I think this is a week we can almost take

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Speaker 2: advantage of that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I don't hate it, and it kind of

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Speaker 1: leads into my next pick, which I was gonna wait

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Speaker 1: till three, but I'll move it now since it goes

335
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Speaker 1: nicely into our narrative. The line has moved on this one,

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Speaker 1: like we were talking about right before I said, ah,

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Speaker 1: the line moved on one of the games that I

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Speaker 1: had right before I had this pick. But I'm still

339
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Speaker 1: gonna go with it. And that is the same game

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Speaker 1: that you picked, which is the Bears and Eagles, and

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Speaker 1: I'm going with under forty two. It was under forty

342
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Speaker 1: three when I first picked it. A lot of what

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Speaker 1: you said makes sense, except for the fact that I

344
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Speaker 1: don't really see either team necessarily being able to put

345
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Speaker 1: up a ton of points. The Shawn Jackson is potentially

346
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Speaker 1: back this week, that screws up the narrative a tiny bit,

347
00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,200
Speaker 1: because I do think he makes it kind of a

348
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Speaker 1: big difference in that offense for the Eagles. But again,

349
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Speaker 1: I really do think that this sets up well for

350
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Speaker 1: the Unders, just in the way that both these teams play.

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Speaker 1: The Eagles you've talked about them, but in particular, they're

352
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Speaker 1: like the worst first half team in the game today.

353
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Speaker 1: I mean, remember they started the season by being down

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Speaker 1: twenty to seven against Washington. They fell behind significantly against

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Speaker 1: both the Lions you just mentioned and the Vikings. For

356
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Speaker 1: whatever reason, they cannot get going early. They've been behind

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Speaker 1: at halftime in five of their eight games. They're one

358
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 1: of the worst teams in the league in terms of

359
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,440
Speaker 1: first quarter and first half point differential. I don't really

360
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Speaker 1: have the reason for it other than I think that

361
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:03,080
Speaker 1: they're really not a very good football team right now,

362
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Speaker 1: and then they play with their hair on fire in

363
00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,639
Speaker 1: the comeback mode, so they can just get some points

364
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,119
Speaker 1: out of there, but otherwise they just struggle. And on

365
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,639
Speaker 1: the offensive side of the ball, things just they just

366
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 1: look disjointed, right, I mean, zach Ertz hasn't gotten the

367
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,880
Speaker 1: ball enough. The offensive line is a disaster. As you mentioned,

368
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 1: they're finally leaning on the running game and that's working

369
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,240
Speaker 1: a little bit more, but it's not really you know,

370
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,000
Speaker 1: Miles Sanders is banged up a little bit with the shoulder.

371
00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,399
Speaker 1: He should play, but again I don't expect them to

372
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Speaker 1: be able to, you know, have however, whatever four rushing

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Speaker 1: touchdowns or three rushing touchdowns like they had last game

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Speaker 1: against the Bills. And on the defensive side, again, the

375
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:40,119
Speaker 1: secondary has been decimated by injuries all year long. Jalen Mills,

376
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,160
Speaker 1: Ronald Darby, Vonte Maddox. They've all missed time and again.

377
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 1: They can stop the run, but not really the past.

378
00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 1: But that's probably a pretty good recipe for the under because,

379
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,640
Speaker 1: unlike you, I have a little less faith I think

380
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Speaker 1: in the Bears offense. I mean Mitchell Trubisky. To me,

381
00:17:56,040 --> 00:18:00,560
Speaker 1: I've watched them closely. Everything is bad. This is taking

382
00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:04,399
Speaker 1: a giant sort of leap backwards. There was all these

383
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,119
Speaker 1: whispers in the preseason about how he just looked like

384
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:08,919
Speaker 1: he had regressed, and I didn't really buy it. But

385
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 1: you know, whatever it is, he's been inaccurate. He doesn't

386
00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,080
Speaker 1: look confident. The play calling in Matt ANDEGGI you know,

387
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,320
Speaker 1: you mentioned it as a positive. I don't know. It

388
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,920
Speaker 1: almost seems designed not to maximize the Bear strength at

389
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,359
Speaker 1: this point. And again, you know, the one thing that

390
00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,600
Speaker 1: they have going right now, I mean, Alan Robinson's playing great,

391
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,679
Speaker 1: but David Montgomery last game, he looked great. They ran

392
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 1: out a ton, but that's really where the Eagles sort

393
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,959
Speaker 1: of set up shops. So in the end, I just

394
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,640
Speaker 1: don't really think that all of a sudden, the Eagles

395
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 1: are suddenly going to magically fix their slow starts. And

396
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 1: in the end, I don't think they're gonna need to

397
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 1: really come charging in the second half like they have

398
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,399
Speaker 1: been and put up all those points that they usually do,

399
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,879
Speaker 1: because I don't see the Bears getting out to a

400
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 1: big lead. And I get the last game was eleven

401
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,200
Speaker 1: to seven against the Bills, and then the Eagles wound

402
00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,639
Speaker 1: up putting up twenty points in the second half. But

403
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:01,440
Speaker 1: a lot of that was fluky. I don't really think,

404
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 1: as you said, they're up and then they're immediately down.

405
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 1: So I don't really expect to see that this week.

406
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 1: I expect a low, close scoring game, which is why

407
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,640
Speaker 1: I don't in any way hate the Bears getting five,

408
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 1: because I think once you're past the key number of three, frankly,

409
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 1: I feel a little more confident in the Bears. So

410
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 1: for me, even though I liked it at forty three,

411
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:22,399
Speaker 1: which is when I originally said I was gonna take it,

412
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,679
Speaker 1: I will take it at the Bears Eagles under forty two.

413
00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 2: Well, your thoughts they brought down the action, you know,

414
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,359
Speaker 2: your your sharp thoughts moving markets.

415
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 1: Right, I mean I figured, you know, the Bears are

416
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 1: usually a pretty good underplay, just because they put up

417
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,239
Speaker 1: so few points and the defense gets a little bit

418
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 1: of a bad rap right now. I mean, their run

419
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,960
Speaker 1: defense is clearly weaker without a Keen Hicks. Okay, there's

420
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:48,920
Speaker 1: no denying that, but it's still overall a relatively strong defense.

421
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: I mean, go be a Jets fan for a day

422
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 1: and then figure out, you know what it's like to

423
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,199
Speaker 1: watch an actual mediocre team. So for me, you know,

424
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:57,399
Speaker 1: I think in the end, it's going to be a

425
00:19:57,400 --> 00:19:59,120
Speaker 1: close scoring game. I agree with you that the Eagles

426
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 1: just when they're up, that's when you kind of bet

427
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:02,679
Speaker 1: against them. So for me, I think it's much more

428
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 1: betting against the offense, and I think it's just going

429
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 1: to kind of be a you know, a hard hit

430
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 1: game that's going to be relatively close. All right, let's

431
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 1: move on to your third pick.

432
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 2: What do you got another marketplay for me? Raiders minus

433
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 2: two over the Lions. To me, these are two average

434
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 2: teams that have a little bit of upside. Just hang

435
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 2: three in this game and let it sit. But the

436
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 2: Raiders are just getting no love from the market despite

437
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 2: covering three out of their last four games. And if

438
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,199
Speaker 2: you look at that Packers game that Derek Carr almost

439
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 2: called him David almost called him, David, But I don't

440
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 2: do it.

441
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:37,680
Speaker 1: Don't do it.

442
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 2: That Derek Carr fumble touchback was really a game changer

443
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 2: in a game where the Raiders were competitive. It was

444
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 2: kind of a fake blowout for the Packers. Again, Dvoa

445
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 2: has these two teams close. Lions fourteenth and overall efficiency

446
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 2: Raiders right there in seventeenth. And this is a great

447
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 2: homecoming for a team that's been on the road since

448
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 2: September fifteenth, that's forty nine days come Sunday. Their only

449
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 2: quote unquote home game was played in North London at

450
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 2: Tottenham Stadium. Come on you Spurs, big game against Everton

451
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 2: this weekend. This is defense sold separately too. Both teams

452
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 2: in the bottom third Lions fifth and pass efficiency according

453
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:27,119
Speaker 2: to DVA Raiders sixth, and we've got some real problems

454
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 2: here in this Lion secondary. They traded away KWANJ. Driggs. Thankfully,

455
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,919
Speaker 2: Darius Slay's back at practice today on Wednesday, but Tracy Walker,

456
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 2: the safety, the second safety, went out with an injury

457
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 2: to his knee against the Giants, did not practice today,

458
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 2: so they might be out without Digs, without Walker and

459
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 2: a limping Darius Sligh. So points galore in this game,

460
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 2: and just give me the home team giving less than

461
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: a field goal in the spot.

462
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I would say that I don't love it,

463
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 1: but I like it in this one. I think the Raiders,

464
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 1: I'll be fully honest. When I first saw this line

465
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,199
Speaker 1: on Monday, which actually was less than it is now,

466
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,879
Speaker 1: I think it was maybe minus one. It surprised me

467
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 1: a little bit, and that is me really just not

468
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 1: giving the Raiders enough credit for what they are. I

469
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 1: took them in that game against the Packers. I don't

470
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 1: remember if that was one of my picks, but I

471
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 1: think they were getting you know, four and a half

472
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 1: by the end because a lot of sharp money came

473
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 1: in on the Raiders, and yeah, they got blown out,

474
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,639
Speaker 1: but they really shouldn't have. It was that fumble, and

475
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 1: they were in the red zone a couple of other

476
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 1: times and turned it over, so that game could have

477
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,360
Speaker 1: been a lot closer than it was. Their offensive line

478
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: is playing extremely well, Josh Jacobs is doing good things,

479
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 1: and again you know, now that Tyroll Williams is back,

480
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 1: it gives car another option after Darren Waller out there.

481
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 1: So yeah, with all with the Lions, who I also

482
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 1: feel like generally been underrated. I mean, they didn't cover

483
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 1: against the Giants, though I agree, you know, their defense

484
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: is just you know, beat up a little bit. If

485
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: Slave plays, that certainly helps them. But in the end,

486
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 1: I really don't hate it. I don't know whether or

487
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: not I'll be able to pick if I had to

488
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 1: choose a side, though I would choose the Raiders, So

489
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 1: I definitely.

490
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 2: Don't Hey talk about the O line real quick. Trent

491
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 2: Brown came back last week after an injury, immediately graded

492
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 2: as an eighty three point seven on PFF, and last

493
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 2: week was the first time since preseason all five slated

494
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 2: starters played on the offensive line. They were the highest

495
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 2: rated they've been all season eighty six and pass blocking

496
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 2: per PFF. So this is a well coached, well executing

497
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 2: unit right now. That is the healthiest it's been all season.

498
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 2: So I think this is the best value you might

499
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 2: get on this Raiders team all season.

500
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, I have no problems with the offense.

501
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 1: It's much more about the defense, which I think again

502
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 1: the Lions they do have no they're just completely abandoning

503
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 1: pretending to try to run the ball. You know, they

504
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 1: at least tried with Kerry on Johnson in there, but

505
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 1: they're just kind of giving that up right now and

506
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,359
Speaker 1: going with the smorgasboard of you know whoever they've gotten

507
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 1: there with Trey Carson and Ty Johnson, and it's not

508
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 1: really going to work. So they are just going to

509
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 1: be passing, which is fine, but you make them one dimensional,

510
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 1: and you know, the Raiders should at least be able

511
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 1: to hang with them. So I don't mind it considering

512
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: their home, you know, giving less than field goal. Let's

513
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: move on to my final pick, which is the Colts

514
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:14,479
Speaker 1: laying one to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. I didn't get

515
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: this line when it opened. I don't get it now,

516
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 1: I will not get it tomorrow. I think the Steelers

517
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 1: defense is solid. It's not spectacular, but it's very solid,

518
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: particularly since they added Minka Fitzpatrick. They get a ton

519
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,959
Speaker 1: of interceptions in sacks, but you can throw on them,

520
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 1: as Fitzpatrick showed pretty easily that you can put up

521
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 1: points against them right at the outset on Mondays on

522
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: Monday Night. The Colts passing offense, you know, it's been

523
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 1: generally good. Jacoby Brissett has fit in well for Andrew Luck.

524
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,159
Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a mixed bag generally, but

525
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 1: for the most part, the passing game has been working.

526
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 1: And they're also the Steelers, I'll give them that. They're

527
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 1: also in addition to good against the past, they're good

528
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 1: against the run all right. They hold opposing teams to

529
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: really low yars per carry average. But the Colts have

530
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 1: won the best defensive lines in the league. Marlon Mack

531
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: has run really well. I don't expect them to get

532
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 1: shut down here. But the problem with the Steelers is really,

533
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 1: for me, their offense. It's not at all impressive. Under

534
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph, he's been extremely subpar. He doesn't push the

535
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: ball down field enough. He struggled for the most part

536
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins. He was largely bailed out by Juju

537
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 1: Smith Schuster making leaping catches and some ridiculous defensive decisions

538
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 1: that freed up Deontay Johnson on a third and twenty

539
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 1: when the Dolphins called the blitz. They Steelers rank near

540
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: the bottom of the league in passing and their run

541
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,959
Speaker 1: game is good, but they're really banged up. Connor as

542
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: the shoulder injury, Benny Snell jered his knee, Jalen Samuels

543
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: is just coming back off the knee injury. I Meanwhile,

544
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: the Colts defense is very solid on both sides of

545
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 1: the ball. They get pressure on the quarterback consistently. They've

546
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 1: got nineteen sacks on the year, and the Steelers are

547
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: good at protecting Rudolph. But I imagine there's going to be

548
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 1: some happy feat and the Colts are also solid against

549
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 1: the run. Their overall numbers are a little misleading because

550
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 1: they've been without Darius Leonard for a few games. But

551
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: they've allowed just eighty three yards rushing per game over

552
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: their last three games. So I think they're really doing well.

553
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 1: And this just seems like to me, the Colts are

554
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 1: a clearly better team. I get that they're on the road,

555
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: and I realized that they nearly lost last week against

556
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: the Broncos. But first, the Broncos are not nearly as

557
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: bad as their record indicates. They could easily have won

558
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,199
Speaker 1: three of the games that they lost, but it was

559
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: really just a weird game. The Colts are rarely penalized,

560
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: and I think they might have gotten hit with ten

561
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: penalties last week. It was crazy. I'm basically throwing it out.

562
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 1: You add to that the fact that the Steelers are

563
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: on a short week and as I said, they're banged up,

564
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 1: especially at running back. It's hard for me to steal

565
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 1: to see the Steelers coming out ahead of this one.

566
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: So given the Colts laying.

567
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 2: One, love this, absolutely love it. You know I've you've

568
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 2: sniped this from me. You gotta you snuck it in

569
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 2: before I could take it. Look, the Colts offensive line

570
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 2: is going to be good enough to neutralize this Steelers

571
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 2: pass rush, which is phenomenal first in DVA fourth on

572
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 2: Pro Football Focus. Jacoby Brissett is going to have enough

573
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,200
Speaker 2: time to operate in this offense. And traditionally the Steelers

574
00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 2: tend to be more of a zone team. Now they've

575
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: tried to change that this year right by bringing in

576
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 2: Minka Fitzpatrick and drafting a linebacker early so that they

577
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 2: could play more man concept. But I still think that

578
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 2: Bersett's going to be able to stand back there and

579
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 2: make the correct read in this game. And on the

580
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 2: other side of the ball, Mason Rudolph is horrendous getting

581
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 2: great protection on Monday night. He's just the first interception,

582
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 2: he had a beautiful pocket. He sat back there and

583
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 2: patted the ball for several seconds before making the worst

584
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 2: decision possible and handing the ball to the Dolphins. You

585
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 2: can do that against the historically bad team and get

586
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 2: away with the victory and they damn near covered fourteen

587
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 2: in the process as well, But you can't do that

588
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 2: against a good football team, and that's what the Colts are.

589
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 2: And beyond all of this, this is one of the

590
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,719
Speaker 2: largest coaching this matches you'll see this weekend. Mike Tomlin

591
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 2: against frank Reich. Frank Reich was the architect of everything

592
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 2: that the Eagles did, and he's taken a Colt's roster

593
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 2: and elevated it to a point where it should not

594
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 2: be post Andrew Locke. So yeah, the Colts, this will

595
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 2: steam up closer to three. I don't think it'll ever

596
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 2: get to the key number of three. But if you

597
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 2: like the Colts in the spot, you should take them

598
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 2: as soon as possible.

599
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: So you know, you make that point. But why hasn't

600
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: it moved yet? I mean it was basically I mean,

601
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 1: I think it was a pick em maybe the look

602
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: aheadline when it first came out. But it hasn't moved significantly.

603
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 1: You think there's gonna be a ton of sharply because

604
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 1: it makes me nervous when I look at a line

605
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: like this, I'm like, no, no, no, this is incorrect,

606
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 1: and it's not moving significantly. I mean the number I'm

607
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 1: looking just sort of at the amount of money that's

608
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 1: being put on it, and you know, the number of

609
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: bets the money being put on it is essentially less

610
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 1: in terms of percentages than the number of bets, So

611
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 1: you know, are we missing something here? Is because I

612
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 1: really would have expected this to move by now.

613
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 2: I definitely love the way you're thinking about this. Right,

614
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 2: If something seems too good to be true, it probably isn't.

615
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 2: One game that's like that this week is we haven't

616
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 2: touched upon? Is the Packers Chargers right like sharing at

617
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 2: that number? And you're like, why aren't the Packers like

618
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 2: mind session exactly, and why isn't it steaming tremendously in

619
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 2: that direction? So I definitely understand those concerns. But I

620
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 2: think when you're working with numbers between the field goals, right,

621
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 2: and again, I don't think this number will ever get

622
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 2: to three. I think eventually it'll creep up as they

623
00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 2: try to get more money on Steelers to balance the

624
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 2: books a little bit. I think our concerns can be

625
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 2: levied a little bit because it's it's not near a

626
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 2: key number. It won't reach a key number. I think

627
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,719
Speaker 2: as long as it doesn't steam through pick right then,

628
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 2: I think, you know, alarm bells should be going up.

629
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 2: Right now, I think we're okay.

630
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 1: All right that I think that that's fine. And again,

631
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: that is the obvious point. When you're not going through

632
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 1: the key numbers, it doesn't really matter if it's plus

633
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: one if it's plus two, it's a kind of irrelevant

634
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 1: at this point. It just seems to me that, you know,

635
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: I would want to hammer this number right now at

636
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 1: plus one, so I would feel like, you know, or

637
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: at minus one, so I feel like in the end,

638
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 1: I'm just surprised that they're leaving it there and that

639
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 1: they aren't getting quite as much money at this point.

640
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: But again, we'll seek and you know, I'm certainly confident

641
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 1: enough in it to pick it now. All right, So

642
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: let's recap here, Rich, You're gonna take the Redskins getting

643
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 1: ten from the Bills, the Bears getting five from the Eagles,

644
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: and the Raiders laying two to the Lions. I'm going

645
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 1: to take the Jets and Dolphins over forty one and

646
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: a half, the Colts laying one to the Steelers, and

647
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,640
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Speaker 1: let's talk about BETMGM. All right. BETMGM is our sponsor,

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666
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689
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: to It's a trap, where we list the line that

690
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 1: we are avoiding. Go ahead and start us off.

691
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 2: Oh Man, just talking about this team gives me eggzema.

692
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 2: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I talked about Yo Yo's earlier

693
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 2: with regards to the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Bucks. You

694
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 2: never know when you're going to get the good Jamis

695
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 2: or the bad Jamis. And he's been a player that

696
00:32:56,680 --> 00:33:00,080
Speaker 2: whenever I've got him or whenever I'm fading him. It

697
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:04,239
Speaker 2: seems to me that it's just the exact opposite is

698
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:09,959
Speaker 2: going to happen. And from a pure numbers standpoint, analyzing

699
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 2: this game, looking how poor Seattle has been at home,

700
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 2: they failed to cover in four games that week, one

701
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: game against the Bengals. The Bengals are one of the

702
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 2: worst teams in football, and somehow they stuck with them

703
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 2: at CenturyLink. The Hawks secondary is no longer the legion

704
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 2: of boom. You should for sure be taking this six

705
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: and a half or six whatever number you're getting. Classic

706
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 2: tickets are on the Seahawks sixty percent. Clip money is

707
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 2: on the Bucks sixty eight percent. Clip Everything is telling

708
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 2: you take Tampa Bay, but I can't do it.

709
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 1: I can't.

710
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 2: I can't go near the bucks Man. So that is

711
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: why Ironstaingle.

712
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 1: First of all, I was legitimately about to say, you

713
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: have completely misunderstood the point of this exercise, because everything

714
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: you were saying, I thought We're gonna come up and

715
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: be like, you gotta take the Bucks. That's I'm asporting

716
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 1: to say. I was like, no, you can't, that's not

717
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 1: what we do in this section. So I've done this show.

718
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: I don't know how many shows we've done at this point,

719
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: thirty forty, whatever it is, and almost every show I say, yeah,

720
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm staying away from whatever. The Bucks. When

721
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 1: the Bucks played the Titans, it was perfect because those

722
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 1: are two teams that I said to like, I don't know,

723
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not going anywhere near them. I agree,

724
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: this line looks pretty nice, it looks good for the Bucks.

725
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: But no, you can't ever trust Jameis Winston. You can't

726
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 1: trust anything that they're doing whatsoever. I mean, I'm completely

727
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: in agreement with you on this one because you just

728
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 1: don't know which one is going to shut up a

729
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:36,359
Speaker 1: show up.

730
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 2: So you know what you do with the Bucks, You

731
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 2: just bet weird adjusted lines like bet Hawks minus twenty

732
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 2: and Bucks minus seven, Like those are those who are

733
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,919
Speaker 2: what you should be betting in this game, because they are.

734
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: They just have all these outlier outcomes every single game.

735
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 2: You don't know what direction it's going to be, but

736
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 2: it's certainly going to be some sort of outline.

737
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: You are a genius. I love that strategy, but in

738
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: the meantime, do not take anything on the Bucks getting

739
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: six in this game. As for me, I am going

740
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 1: to avoid the Pats laying three to the Ravens. Now

741
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 1: this line has been steadily moving towards the Ravens all week.

742
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,800
Speaker 1: I completely get why Patriots offense does not look dominant.

743
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 1: The Ravens are at home in prime time off of bye,

744
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: where John Harbaugh is great at getting his team going.

745
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:19,879
Speaker 1: And the thing is, when I look at the game,

746
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: especially with Hollywood Brown looking likely to play here, I

747
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 1: do think it favors the Ravens, or at least it

748
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 1: did when they were getting more than a field goal.

749
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: But I kind of think the Patriots blow up all

750
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 1: narratives and expectations at this point. The defense is legitimate,

751
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 1: and when you have a quarterback like Lamar Jackson's primary

752
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: weapon is his legs, I just think that that is

753
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,479
Speaker 1: something that Bill Belijack can find a way to scheme around.

754
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 1: So first, I think that all the value has kind

755
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: of been sucked away now that the line is down

756
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 1: to an even field goal. But even if I did

757
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 1: see value, I would stay away because I just don't

758
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: see how you can possibly bet against the Patriots giving

759
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 1: anything within four points at this point, given that they've

760
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 1: There's just been so much value the last couple of weeks,

761
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: you know, when you looked at the and you looked

762
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 1: at the Browns and those spreads, and there was so

763
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 1: much value, and sharp betters have been all over those

764
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: plays and the Patriots have still covered. So for me,

765
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: I understand why there's a lot of sharp money coming

766
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 1: in on the Ravens. It was that I like them

767
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 1: at four, but I still would not have bet them almost.

768
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 1: You know, it's sort of the opposite with Winston. You

769
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 1: don't know what you're gonna get with Winston. I know

770
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,800
Speaker 1: what I'm gonna get with the Patriots, and it scares

771
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 1: the bejeebas out of me, and I just don't feel

772
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: comfortable betting against them. So I'm avoiding the Patriots. Laying

773
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: three did the Ravens.

774
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: Every week, people tell me this is the spot, this

775
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 2: is the spot to fade the Patriots. Last week we

776
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 2: were doing our Super Contest show Brett Colson mo Noir.

777
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 2: This is absolutely the spot to take the Browns and

778
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 2: fade the Patriots. But spoiler alert, it's never the spot

779
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 2: to fade the Patriots. They get some weird muffed punt

780
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 2: or some weird last week Nick Chubb alignment karate kicks

781
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 2: the ball out of his hands and it turns into

782
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 2: a Patriots defensive score. These things are almost predictive now

783
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 2: for the New England Patriots, and it's just never the

784
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:12,760
Speaker 2: spot to fade them. Even as all the money poured

785
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 2: in on Cleveland last week and that number steamed through

786
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 2: the key number of ten and down to nine, it

787
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 2: did not matter. You don't make money fading, Bill Belichick.

788
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 2: You never have, you never will. And like the Bucks,

789
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 2: the Patriots are the ultimate stay away from me unless

790
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:32,760
Speaker 2: I'm betting on them, because I'm just done with fading

791
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 2: the Pats at all costs.

792
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 1: And as someone who did take the Browns getting thirteen

793
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:42,720
Speaker 1: in the super contest this past week, I completely agree

794
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 1: with that. You just can't at this point anymore.

795
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:46,479
Speaker 2: I mean, you always walk away, You always walk away

796
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:47,959
Speaker 2: thinking that you were on the right side.

797
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 1: Of course I was on the right And it doesn't

798
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:53,240
Speaker 1: mean it's a bad bet when you lose, right, of course,

799
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 1: that's not really what you're necessarily doing. Just because you lose,

800
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: it doesn't necessarily make it a bad bet. And I'm

801
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 1: sure the sharp better is aren't gonna be like man, man,

802
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 1: why was I doing that? You know what I mean?

803
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 1: That's not the way it works. But still no, run

804
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: far away completely from anything involving the Patriots at the moments.

805
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 1: All right, so you're avoiding the Bucks getting six from

806
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, I'm avoiding the Ravens getting three from the Patriots.

807
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 1: Before we get into our final segment, remember we've got

808
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:20,120
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809
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811
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,840
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812
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Speaker 1: of that review to contest at Bettingpros dot com. And

813
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819
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 1: five dollars voucher. All right, Rich, time for Top prop

820
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 1: where we list our top player prop of the week.

821
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 2: Start us off, Well, you called me with my pants

822
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 2: down before we started the show. I forgot about this,

823
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 2: But while we were recording here, I initially had a

824
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 2: prop in there which was a little bit wild. I

825
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 2: had Mitch Trubisky overpassing yards two fifty decent value at

826
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 2: plus one eleven, and it correlates if you like Bears

827
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 2: plus five. But I'm going to pivot to a game

828
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 2: that actually you just selected, and that's Patriots Ravens and

829
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:24,240
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick. His method is always to kill the snake,

830
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 2: you take off the head, and in this case it

831
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: would be Lamar Jackson. I'm going to take the under

832
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 2: on fifty nine and a half rushing yards from Lamar Jackson.

833
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 2: That is a suspiciously low number. And I do believe

834
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 2: that in these scenarios where you have very low outlier

835
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 2: type prop lines even totals as well, that you usually

836
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 2: want to go on the side that it's on. In

837
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 2: this case, it's low, So your mind is saying take

838
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 2: the over, but I in fact would take the under.

839
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 2: That's what the Patriots are going to focus on in

840
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 2: this game, right, They're going to make Lamar Jackson throw

841
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 2: against the secondary they're going to build a wall with

842
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 2: their front seven, not allow him to get out and scamper.

843
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 2: You look at the way they defended Leveon Bell. Historically,

844
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 2: Leveon likes to take those two steps and then stop

845
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,359
Speaker 2: and then read the zone blocking scheme and then go

846
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 2: from there. Well, if you watch how the Patriots defended him, historically,

847
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,919
Speaker 2: they don't get up the field on Leveon. They don't

848
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 2: fire into their gaps and then react to him. They

849
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 2: kind of just stand up and hold their positions and

850
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 2: then fall into the zone wherever he's running. So if

851
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,479
Speaker 2: you watch, Leveon never got tackled for loss a lot

852
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 2: against the Patriots because they didn't want to get upfield. Rather,

853
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,800
Speaker 2: they would stop him, you know, two yards down the field,

854
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 2: three yards and make him ineffective in that fashion. And

855
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 2: I think I don't care that John Harbaugh had an

856
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 2: extra week to prepare this for this game. I think

857
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick is somebody who's been scheming for Lamar Jackson

858
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 2: the entire season, knowing how important this game will be

859
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 2: and how important their future playoff game might be. So

860
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 2: with all that being said, give me the under on

861
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 2: fifty nine and a half rushing yards for Lamar Jackson.

862
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,399
Speaker 1: I really really like it for the reasons that you're saying.

863
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: I mean, you know that Bell Jacks's gonna be like,

864
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 1: if we're gonna get big by Lamar Jackson throwing the ball,

865
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 1: I will live with that. But he's gonna take away

866
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 1: what they do best. That's what he does every single time.

867
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 1: My only concern with it is that I think with

868
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:27,240
Speaker 1: a guy like Jackson who basically can have a broken

869
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 1: play and somehow find a way to scamper for a

870
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 1: big number, you know what I mean, And I take

871
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 1: a lot of QB rushing props. I don't know why.

872
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 1: Like I always see when I do my projections, which

873
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 1: I do a lot, especially for fantasy football, if I

874
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,280
Speaker 1: find a number that I think is just drastically different

875
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,280
Speaker 1: than what I'm getting on the prop, which I do often,

876
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,919
Speaker 1: I will take them. But it's scary with a guy

877
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 1: like Jackson because again, they can hold him totally in check.

878
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: It's like when you would bet against Tyreek Hill ever right,

879
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 1: like you can hold him totally in check, and then

880
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: there's one play that's just gonna go off despite the

881
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 1: fact that they schemes so well. So that would be

882
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,280
Speaker 1: my only worry for it, but I agree it seems

883
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 1: like a low number, but I do like it because

884
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: you know that's exactly what they're gonna do.

885
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 2: For sure, it puts the fury go out of me

886
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 2: seeing his rushing totals so far this year one sixteen,

887
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 2: one fifty two, seventy sixty six, forty six and one

888
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 2: twenty like of course, you know this is this is

889
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,439
Speaker 2: why speaking of fantasy, Lamar has so much value. He's

890
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 2: got the Konami code. He gets those one point for

891
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,479
Speaker 2: ten yards rushing. But I just trust in the goat,

892
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 2: and that is Bill Belichick to keep him contained.

893
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 1: I can't blame him. I as I said, I'm gonna

894
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 1: get a little bolder on this one since I've been

895
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 1: hitting a bunch. I'm gonna I'm gonna try to ride

896
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 1: the wave here. And look, you and I talked about

897
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 1: that Jets Dolphins game and why like the over, and

898
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 1: one of the things I think is gonna happen is

899
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 1: that a couple of Jets playmakers are gonna have big games,

900
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 1: and one of them is going to be Robbie Anderson,

901
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 1: who is going to go over one hundred and twenty

902
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 1: five receiving yards and the odds are plus four twenty five.

903
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,239
Speaker 1: So let's make that clear. This is not something that

904
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:06,800
Speaker 1: I'm necessarily expecting to happen. He has done it twice

905
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 1: in his entire career, so this is certainly something where

906
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 1: the only reason to take it is because you are

907
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 1: getting more than four to one on your money. But again,

908
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 1: the Jets offense, this is you know, to the extent

909
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 1: the Jets offense can quote unquote get right. This is

910
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 1: what they're going to do here. Without Xavian Howard, it's

911
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 1: going to be there's nobody who's really going to be

912
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 1: able to hang with him. You saw against the Cowboys,

913
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: you know, I think it was a ninety two yard

914
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 1: touchdown catch. They he can have an explosive play at

915
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 1: any given time. They do have chemistry, which they showed

916
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: last year. And this is completely anecdotal, so it really

917
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. But you know, there were all these trade

918
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 1: rumors and you expected him to go, and you know,

919
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 1: you have the trade rumors with someone like Jamal Adams

920
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,760
Speaker 1: who doesn't get traded and is now really angry, really

921
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 1: angry at being dangled. After the trade deadline passed, Robbie

922
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 1: Anderson put out a great tweet where he took the

923
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 1: scene from The Wolf of Wall Street where Leonardo DiCaprio

924
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: is basically saying I'm not going anywhere. I'm not going

925
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 1: like a very sort of adamant thing, and the Jets

926
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: liked it, you know, on the Jets Twitter feed liked it.

927
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 1: I just feel like this is something where you know,

928
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 1: a guy like Adams, you might get a little worried

929
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 1: about how he's going to react to this. Robbie, I

930
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 1: don't think so. Robbie strikes me as the type of

931
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,239
Speaker 1: guy who's gonna want to say, that's right, you held me,

932
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 1: you did the right thing here. I think this is

933
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 1: just going to be a smash spot for Le'Veon Bell.

934
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a smash spot for Robbie Anderson.

935
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 1: So one hundred and twenty five is a big number.

936
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: As I said, he's only done it twice, but at

937
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 1: plus four to twenty five, that's a that's a number

938
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 1: that's value enough for me to go with it. So

939
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 1: I'll take Anderson over one hundred and twenty five receiving

940
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:41,240
Speaker 1: yards against the Dolphins.

941
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 2: I love the narrative. Take let me pile on Robbie

942
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 2: Anderson's a South Florida guy. Went to South Plantation High

943
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 2: right in Broward County, so he's a homecoming for him.

944
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 2: He'll have family at the game, he'll want to show out.

945
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 2: Let's go. This is you know what this is. This

946
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 2: is so funny. We're two just miserable Jets fans, and

947
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 2: despite everything we've seen this season, we are somehow optimistic

948
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 2: about I mean.

949
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 1: To be fair, they're playing a historically terrible team that

950
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 1: has no interest in winning. And even if the Dolphins

951
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:15,479
Speaker 1: get out ahead, they stop playing in the second half.

952
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:16,799
Speaker 1: I mean that that is what it is. They'll just

953
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: be like, shoot, we're winning. We got to find a

954
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 1: way to screw this all up, and so you know

955
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 1: there'll be something. But I agree. This is the most

956
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 1: optimistic take on the Jets for two Jets fans that

957
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 1: have probably ever been in the history of any sports

958
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: betting show. So hopefully we'll be right for this one.

959
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: But you know, we've got a long way to go

960
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: before we're going to be really happy watching our team. Well,

961
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 1: thanks for joining me today. Rich. Remind everyone where they

962
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your work.

963
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can check us out on Twitter at grid

964
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 2: Iron Gamble. The Gridiron Gable podcast. Every week we put

965
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 2: together a super contest card amongst the four of us.

966
00:45:54,480 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 2: You can download the pod listen on any podcast platforms iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify,

967
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: what have you. We come out every Thursday and every

968
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 2: Tuesday morning, so check us out and tail us if

969
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 2: you are super brave and crazy. How about that?

970
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 1: All right? Thanks again for coming on the show. Rich

971
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: hope we can do it at least one more time

972
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 1: before the end of the season.

973
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 2: Absolutely, we love to.

974
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 1: I want to mind everyone about bet mgm, where you

975
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,440
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976
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,239
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977
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:30,480
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978
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:32,520
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979
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,880
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980
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,520
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981
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:40,640
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982
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers. This weekend, we'll be back

983
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:45,399
Speaker 1: breaking down the early lines for week ten. I'm mine