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Speaker 2: Well before I went on my little sojore into Aruba,
Speaker 2: the bitcoin ETF was the thing that was the story.
Speaker 3: I don't know how it's all been.
Speaker 2: I do follow Eric Belchuna's research on Bootberg Intelligence and
Speaker 2: so that kind of keeps me up up to speed here.
Speaker 2: But let's check out somebody else's in this space. Chris Broaderson,
Speaker 2: Managing Director Eisner Amper's Business Advisory Group.
Speaker 3: Chris talk to us about.
Speaker 2: How important having a spot bitcoin ETF is to the
Speaker 2: crypto space and to the ETF space.
Speaker 4: Sure, so thanks for having me. I think that the
Speaker 4: importance here is that having a spot ETF does a
Speaker 4: couple of things. Number One, it lends legitimacy to the
Speaker 4: asset cloud that it is recognized as a store of value.
Speaker 4: Whether you agree with that or not, It certainly makes
Speaker 4: it easier to invest. The average retail investor no longer
Speaker 4: has to worry about things like wallets and key management
Speaker 4: and custody and things like that. The other thing that
Speaker 4: it does is it potentially broadens the appeal and the
Speaker 4: ecosystem longer term.
Speaker 5: So, Paul, since you said you left Friday, that was
Speaker 5: the day that all the etf started trading in your
Speaker 5: back today. So this is what you missed. In that
Speaker 5: first week of trading, spotpick win ETFs and US saw
Speaker 5: about six point five billion dollars in shares change hands.
Speaker 5: That's according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. That is much higher
Speaker 5: than any kind of recorded ETFs pegged your traditional assets.
Speaker 5: So a lot of people are trading and moving these
Speaker 5: things around. Chris, do we know who?
Speaker 4: Oh? I don't know who. I assume it's largely retail investors.
Speaker 4: I mean, there has been discussion about the institutional investors,
Speaker 4: but I think the thing to okusam right now is
Speaker 4: who's going to participate from a firm perspective. So, for example,
Speaker 4: Vanguard has said that they're not going to offer these
Speaker 4: ETFs on their platform, at least not now. Over the weekend,
Speaker 4: I was playing tennis with a registered investment advisor friend,
Speaker 4: and he said that his firm is in the process
Speaker 4: of looking at suitability investor suitability before they decide whether
Speaker 4: or not they're going to offer these ETFs. So I
Speaker 4: think over time you're going to see more and more
Speaker 4: firms open up their platforms to these ETFs.
Speaker 2: You know, Chris, before these things even started trading, seemed
Speaker 2: like a price war erupted. Everybody's cutting the fees. Here's
Speaker 2: what's going on here. I mean, I guess it seems
Speaker 2: like a bitcoins, a bitcoins a bitcoin. How do I
Speaker 2: differentiate one ETF from the other.
Speaker 3: Is it just fees?
Speaker 1: Well?
Speaker 4: I think it's fees, But I also think you have
Speaker 4: to look at the performance of the manager over time
Speaker 4: and how closely do they track. So if you talk
Speaker 4: to Mike Novogratz, for example, he'll tell you that his
Speaker 4: Canadian ETF has the best tracking track record of all
Speaker 4: the ETFs out there. I can't speak to that. I
Speaker 4: don't know if it's true, but I think that you
Speaker 4: have to balance the fees along with the track performance
Speaker 4: of the manager.
Speaker 5: So, okay, aside from that, how many more are you
Speaker 5: think are gonna come? So there's eleven right now. We
Speaker 5: get a lot more, a couple more, because I think
Speaker 5: the big question everyone has is like, how many of
Speaker 5: these guys do you actually need.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've heard that said over and over again, and
Speaker 4: I think that ultimately we'll probably end up with half
Speaker 4: a dozen or less. I just don't see the need
Speaker 4: for thirteen bitcoin ETFs at this point.
Speaker 2: So I guess bitcoin there's a lot more to the
Speaker 2: crypto space than Bitcoin. How about other ets for I
Speaker 2: don't know, ethereum or whatever else the kids are portraying
Speaker 2: these days.
Speaker 4: Sure, so I know that black Rock and a couple
Speaker 4: of others have applied for ethereum based ETFs. I don't
Speaker 4: think that we're going to see anything from the SEC
Speaker 4: probably until May. But having said that, I think that
Speaker 4: those ETFs are going to be a much more significant
Speaker 4: in terms of uphill battle. And the reason I say
Speaker 4: that is because the SEC has said very staunchly that
Speaker 4: all cryptos x bitcoin are considered securities. So these folks
Speaker 4: that want and ethereum ETF are going to have to
Speaker 4: convince the SEC that the underlying ethereum is not a
Speaker 4: security and why it should be allowed into.
Speaker 5: An ETF yep, And that is going to be tricky,
Speaker 5: and so maybe we just stick with what we have
Speaker 5: and then go down to a little bit less. Can
Speaker 5: I short, this thing can I can I put options
Speaker 5: on it? Can I do anything? When do you guys
Speaker 5: think that's going to happen?
Speaker 4: So pro Shares has already applied to have leveraged and
Speaker 4: short bitcoin ETFs.
Speaker 5: Because Paul would probably be into that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, so that I would. I I wouldn't imagine
Speaker 4: that those will be coming. But you can also, you know,
Speaker 4: trade in the futures market bitcoin, right, so go to
Speaker 4: the CME if you want to play futures and options.
Speaker 2: So, you know, Chris, we did get the SEC to
Speaker 2: approve this in Genslers. SEC Chairman Gainster was the deciding
Speaker 2: vote to the positive. But boy, judging by his tweets,
Speaker 2: he doesn't really seem like he's a supporter here. I mean,
Speaker 2: is this thing? Is the SEC spoken? Is this done?
Speaker 2: Are we never going back to like Gary Ginster coming
Speaker 2: back and saying, you know what, this really is not
Speaker 2: what we need here.
Speaker 4: Well, I can't speak to what's in Chairman Ginstzler's head,
Speaker 4: but what I can tell you is that, you know,
Speaker 4: I think the SEC did this somewhat reluctantly because their
Speaker 4: hands were sort of tied by the courts. And I
Speaker 4: think that the ultimate arbiter of this will be in
Speaker 4: the court of public opinion. What happens to the price
Speaker 4: of these of bitcoin and bitcoin ETFs over time? Is
Speaker 4: it truly or a value? Is it something that people
Speaker 4: will look to in times of uncertainty like digital goal
Speaker 4: that's been talked about. Time will tell and I wish
Speaker 4: I had that kind of crystal all yeah.
Speaker 5: Time, And it really depends on what timeframe, right, Like
Speaker 5: is it going to take three six months to sess
Speaker 5: out or a lot longer. But Paul, what I think
Speaker 5: is interesting too is if you want to diversify your investment, right,
Speaker 5: that's the whole idea. Let's diversify, let's do alternative investment.
Speaker 5: Do you need ten percent in bitcoin or do you
Speaker 5: need like one percent?
Speaker 1: Like what?
Speaker 5: And that's going to make a big difference into the
Speaker 5: uptake of these guys too.
Speaker 3: Paul, Yeah, it's interesting.
Speaker 2: I think a lot of folks are just saying I
Speaker 2: want to have some exposure, by a lot of folks
Speaker 2: are saying I just don't need it at all because
Speaker 2: I don't understand it. Chris, I know what eyaer after
Speaker 2: you kind of look at kind of all things fintech.
Speaker 2: If you will blockchain, what's the next big thing that
Speaker 2: you guys are talking to your clients about. Is it
Speaker 2: just more crypto, better crypto?
Speaker 3: What's the next big thing you're looking at.
Speaker 4: I think that the real opportunity longer term is in
Speaker 4: the tokenization of world and traditional assets. Crypto is interesting,
Speaker 4: it certainly has its place. It's not going away anytime soon.
Speaker 4: But when we look at the efficiency gains and the
Speaker 4: ability to fundamentally re architect the middle and back office
Speaker 4: functions of a number of financial institutions using tokens, I
Speaker 4: think that that is just going to be a huge,
Speaker 4: significant opportunity in the future.
Speaker 5: So I do my taxes with Eisner Effert. Just full
Speaker 5: disclosure inside, I'm like a nine year old person and
Speaker 5: I don't want to pay any taxes and I want
Speaker 5: to be really super safe with my investments. What is
Speaker 5: the best sort of way to utilize my money that
Speaker 5: doesn't involve paying a botload of taxes? Like? Do I
Speaker 5: want a bit quinn ETF? From that perspective, do I
Speaker 5: want to switch from the GBC trust to the ETF?
Speaker 6: Like?
Speaker 5: Do I want to do those things?
Speaker 4: Well, there's a few reasons why you would want to switch,
Speaker 4: And this is not investment advice. Alex, please understand that.
Speaker 4: But what I can tell you is that with the ETF,
Speaker 4: it's much easier to pay your taxes than if you
Speaker 4: were to own the bitcoin directly. If you own the
Speaker 4: bitcoin directly, now you have basis tracking and a whole
Speaker 4: bunch of other things that you need to report to
Speaker 4: the IRS, as opposed to just getting your statement from
Speaker 4: your ETF provider at the end of the year.
Speaker 2: All right, Chris, thanks so much for joining us here.
Speaker 2: Chris Broderson, Managing Director, Eisner Ampers.
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Speaker 2: All right, I just got back from a wonderful trip
Speaker 2: down to Rubat and both ways flow. The Boeing seven
Speaker 2: three seven nine hundred er worked like a charm, no
Speaker 2: problems whatsoever.
Speaker 3: All good. It wasn't the Max, it was the ER.
Speaker 2: Now I understand that the ER may have some issues here,
Speaker 2: so I don't know what's going on with our good
Speaker 2: friends at Boeing. When I think Bowing, I think of
Speaker 2: American engineering ingenuity. But boy, they've had a tough four
Speaker 2: or five years. Sarar Phillip joins us. He's a deputy
Speaker 2: team leader for Global Aviation for Bloomberg News. He's in
Speaker 2: our Bloomberg studios, joining us via zoom So thanks so
Speaker 2: much for joining us here.
Speaker 3: What's going on with Boeing?
Speaker 2: I mean, it seems like generations we want without dealing
Speaker 2: with anything, and now it just seems like there's a
Speaker 2: lot of issues there from engineering perspective.
Speaker 3: What do you think's going on?
Speaker 7: Thanks both. So, Yeah, there is a lot of scrutiny
Speaker 7: over Boeing's manufacturing quality, and the latest sort of scrutiny
Speaker 7: is on the seven three seven nine hundred er, which
Speaker 7: is the previous generation of the Boeing seven three seven,
Speaker 7: which is sort of predates the Max that was used
Speaker 7: on the flight on jan fifth that had that dramatic
Speaker 7: blowout of the plug door. The reason why they've expanded
Speaker 7: this probe is basically the nine hundred er uses the
Speaker 7: same type of plugs on its emergency exits as the
Speaker 7: one that failed on the Alaska Airlines flight this month,
Speaker 7: and That's why the FFAs asked airlines that basically operate
Speaker 7: this type to uh do sort of for an additional
Speaker 7: level of safety, to sort of have a visual inspection
Speaker 7: of it, to make sure it's probably secured.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 2: I had a great flight coming back on my seven
Speaker 2: three seven nine R.
Speaker 3: Plane was great. One problem, A huge problem, screaming kid.
Speaker 2: Probably three or four years old, old enough to know
Speaker 2: better than his parents should know better.
Speaker 3: The entire five hour flight.
Speaker 5: That's tough.
Speaker 2: It was brutal, and I just wanted to parents at
Speaker 2: the end.
Speaker 3: I was like, what do you guys, it's just your fruit?
Speaker 3: Did oh totally?
Speaker 2: Just says really, And I just said, you gotta do better,
Speaker 2: you gotta do better?
Speaker 5: Did they say?
Speaker 3: They were not happy with this? Is This is the
Speaker 3: same Paul who people in the company here at Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: When he doesn't like the way they dress, you call
Speaker 3: him you can't wear flip flops in my place of business.
Speaker 5: Well for sure, and there has to be yes also
Speaker 5: like sure, buttons you need to not have them low.
Speaker 5: That's all for guys anyway, and for girls. So back
Speaker 5: on track, said so Boeing made it in to Saturday
Speaker 5: Night Live over the weekend. When that happens, I feel
Speaker 5: like that becomes a real issue. Like it's now in
Speaker 5: the everyday vernacular, it's in the skit of the weekend.
Speaker 5: How big a pr problem is this really going to
Speaker 5: be or do we feel like it's already kind of
Speaker 5: priced in?
Speaker 7: I think it is priced in, but I mean essentially
Speaker 7: what everyone's looking for, in what investors are looking for
Speaker 7: is basically trying to see how things go from here. Essentially,
Speaker 7: the Max nine is still not back in service, and
Speaker 7: that's really the key question as to when regulators will
Speaker 7: approve of the procedure to sort of bring them back
Speaker 7: into service. And also everyone's looking to see what the
Speaker 7: deliveries look like and whether or not this will have
Speaker 7: any impact on deliveries of new planes that are stretch
Speaker 7: out into next year, because as you know, I mean,
Speaker 7: airlines are looking for as much lift as they can,
Speaker 7: as much capacity as they can, and this is really
Speaker 7: crucial to determine how this sort of demand goes forward,
Speaker 7: especially at the time when there's a little bit of
Speaker 7: uncertainty about how the demand's going to play out. I mean,
Speaker 7: we've seen revenge travel and we're looking to see sort
Speaker 7: of indications of how that's going to play out. I mean,
Speaker 7: a lot of airlines are going to be reporting earnings
Speaker 7: in the next couple of days, and we shall see
Speaker 7: what they already talk about outlook.
Speaker 2: So sid I mean, I guess the reality is this
Speaker 2: is a duopoly.
Speaker 3: It's Airbus and it's Bowing. I can't just say I'm
Speaker 3: fed up with Bower.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna start buying my stuff from Airbus because Airbus
Speaker 2: has got multi year backlogs.
Speaker 3: So if you're Boeing, what's job one? Do you think?
Speaker 2: Is it just is a marketing pr or is it
Speaker 2: actually changing your engineering process, your manufacturing process.
Speaker 7: I think it's really focusing on quality and building quality.
Speaker 7: I think that's going to reasuy or public that essentially
Speaker 7: that planes are safe to fly, and also reassure the
Speaker 7: customers that they don't have to worry about planes being
Speaker 7: pulled out of service for inspections and sort of the
Speaker 7: complexity of it and having to restructure your operations based
Speaker 7: on that complexity. So I think the key question is
Speaker 7: getting to a point where you're assured of the quality
Speaker 7: of the aircraft and that can sort of give it
Speaker 7: some stability in terms of airlines happy your customers are
Speaker 7: happy and they're not worried about whether or not they're
Speaker 7: going to fly out of an aircraft. And I think
Speaker 7: three step one over it.
Speaker 5: I mean that feels like a fair thing. Yeah, okay, well,
Speaker 5: good point. Apparently Alaska Ara is commenting on the seven
Speaker 5: thirty seven, nine hundred er door plug in an email
Speaker 5: saying that they find no issues so far in those checks.
Speaker 5: So that's something so said normally. As in before today,
Speaker 5: I was on TV from ten to twelve with Guy
Speaker 5: Johnson on the European Close and apparently there's like a
Speaker 5: storm and stuff, and I guarantee you this is all
Speaker 5: he would have been talking about for two hours. So
Speaker 5: I feel like I need to know about the storm
Speaker 5: and stuff over in Europe. What's going on with weather?
Speaker 7: Yeah, so there's a storm storm ishe that's disrupting travel
Speaker 7: causing power blackouts across northern Europe. There's hurricane force winds
Speaker 7: that are lashing the sort of northern Europe and the
Speaker 7: UK and Ireland, and so that's really disrupted travel as
Speaker 7: well as our supply to various homes in Ireland as
Speaker 7: well as the UK, and so I think that has
Speaker 7: had a really big impact on a ship all Airport
Speaker 7: in Amsterdam where they've canceled one hundred and thirty flights
Speaker 7: this morning, and they've talked about winds being over one
Speaker 7: hundred kilometers an hour.
Speaker 2: All right, so thanks so much for joining us. Sid Philip,
Speaker 2: Deputy team leader Global Aviation for Bloomberg News.
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Speaker 3: Let's talk about these markets here.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, we started off the first few
Speaker 2: days of trading selling off, and a lot of people said, yeah,
Speaker 2: that makes sense. We had that huge run at the
Speaker 2: end of the year. But now we found a little
Speaker 2: bit of stability here. So let's check in and see
Speaker 2: what some of these professionals are doing. Coler Schlife she's
Speaker 2: one of them. She's a chief investment officer for the
Speaker 2: Beimo Family Office. Cayl, thanks so much for joining us here.
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of folks were starting this year saying, boy,
Speaker 2: that huge gain we had in you know, the last
Speaker 2: couple of months of twenty twenty three, they probably pulled
Speaker 2: some performance from twenty twenty four a little.
Speaker 3: Bit forward here, we're gon be a little bit of
Speaker 3: a bumpy here in the beginning.
Speaker 2: What's your take on kind of that thought and kind
Speaker 2: of when you talk to your clients, what are you
Speaker 2: telling them about twenty twenty four.
Speaker 8: Yeah, we definitely agree that markets got a little over
Speaker 8: their skis with exuberance in the last couple of months
Speaker 8: of twenty twenty three. But the great part was to
Speaker 8: see the broadening of it, not just being the primary
Speaker 8: Magnificent seven or even if you took it out to
Speaker 8: ten or twelve of those top tech names driving them
Speaker 8: majority of last year's market. So we did think you'd
Speaker 8: see some pullback in here. We do think for sustainability
Speaker 8: for markets to behave themselves well again this year, you
Speaker 8: do need to continue to see that broadening out, which
Speaker 8: you really didn't see in the last couple of weeks
Speaker 8: as things have stabilized.
Speaker 9: But it's not unusual at all when you have.
Speaker 8: That kind of run up going into your end, especially
Speaker 8: at the late trading volume you would have had between
Speaker 8: Christmas and New Year's when a lot of.
Speaker 9: Those highs were approached. If you will.
Speaker 8: It's not unusual at all to see a kind of
Speaker 8: reassessment of that. You've also had a pretty major reassessment
Speaker 8: in terms of timing and quantity of FED cuts because
Speaker 8: a lot of the market exuberance and late last year
Speaker 8: was looking for cuts starting in March, which we don't
Speaker 8: think you'll see.
Speaker 5: Just to update everybody, Archer Daniel's Midland down twenty two percent,
Speaker 5: most on record. Sure there are reasons cutting its outlook
Speaker 5: the CFO on leave, there's some issues and accounting practices. Nonetheless,
Speaker 5: if you miss or get hurt in this mart you
Speaker 5: can get really, really hurt. Carol, do you buy the
Speaker 5: rip that we've seen in the last couple of days?
Speaker 9: Do I buy the I'm sorry?
Speaker 5: Do you buy the rip? Do you buy the rally?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think I'm not sure it's pulled back necessarily
Speaker 8: far enough. But with cash on the sidelines, I think
Speaker 8: it is time because a lot of people have been
Speaker 8: very comfortable sitting in cash, and it's time to start
Speaker 8: locking in either some physicians in the stock market, some
Speaker 8: longer term you know, even going out to two, five,
Speaker 8: five years or a little more. In the fixed income markets.
Speaker 8: We do think you've seen. You'll see that tenure gravitate
Speaker 8: more towards four and a quarter four and a half
Speaker 8: percent by the end of the year, but it locking
Speaker 8: in some potential investments and moving it out of cash
Speaker 8: where it's been arguably a really great place to sit
Speaker 8: through much of last year. But when the FED gets
Speaker 8: around to starting to cut, you'll see some of the
Speaker 8: nice yields on those money market accounts disappear.
Speaker 2: When I started on Wall Street in the mid eighties,
Speaker 2: Japan was the bomb. I mean that was a place
Speaker 2: that was growing like crazy. If you wanted to further
Speaker 2: your career in Wall Street, you had to do a
Speaker 2: stint in the Tokyo office. And then for the last
Speaker 2: twenty or thirty years there's been nothing, no growth, no place,
Speaker 2: and nobody really pay paid attention to it. Now I'm
Speaker 2: starting to hear people talk about Japan. I see that
Speaker 2: in your notes. I even heard Warren Buffett talk about Japan.
Speaker 2: How are you thinking about Japan here?
Speaker 9: I think there's been I too, started when Japan Inc.
Speaker 8: Was the cover story on Business Week, and I probably
Speaker 8: still have that cover in my file someplace.
Speaker 9: But I think then you, as you so aptly noted.
Speaker 8: We went into twenty or thirty years worth of it
Speaker 8: trying to rally and come back out and disinflation hitting.
Speaker 8: But there's a lot of things structurally that are going
Speaker 8: on in Japan right now, and by and large the
Speaker 8: globe is underweighted in that very key developed market. But
Speaker 8: there's a lot of things, for example, governance issues going
Speaker 8: on with publicly held companies there where over half of
Speaker 8: them are trading below book value, and there's new regulatory
Speaker 8: oversight saying that you need to get a plan in place,
Speaker 8: you need outside directors on the board, a plan in
Speaker 8: place to get those stock prices up. And there's a
Speaker 8: lot of things structurally going on there that make us
Speaker 8: very interested in it. And again the fact that most
Speaker 8: of the globe is pretty severely underweighted in Japan because
Speaker 8: of the fact that it's been thirty years since they
Speaker 8: were on magazine covers.
Speaker 5: So yeah, fair enough, And this kind of pairs in
Speaker 5: with your FED call too, Right, we're all kind of
Speaker 5: waiting for the BOJ to at least end zero percent, right,
Speaker 5: at least a little bit of a baby hike, but
Speaker 5: that hasn't happened. You mentioned that the FED isn't going
Speaker 5: to be cutting in March, and I'm wondering how you
Speaker 5: look at the timing of all of this and then
Speaker 5: how you deal with equities out of it.
Speaker 8: Well, I think the piece of it is is that
Speaker 8: the direction is in the right direction. We think the
Speaker 8: Fed's done raising. Whether they cut in March or May,
Speaker 8: or June or July, it's almost none not as relevant, Yeah, exactly, Sorry,
Speaker 8: not enough caffeine this morning. It's not as relevant there
Speaker 8: in terms of it's Directionally, the Fed most likely is
Speaker 8: done raising, is going to start cutting at some point,
Speaker 8: and so we think it does tee up a pretty
Speaker 8: constructive market. Those who are lending to companies have the
Speaker 8: opportunity to, Okay, now we can firm up our models
Speaker 8: and figure out what our prospects are for the next
Speaker 8: three to five years. The trend is for more rate cuts.
Speaker 8: The bed is ample room in here. If our economy
Speaker 8: does start to tail off, now, they have ample room
Speaker 8: in here to be able to cut more aggressively at
Speaker 8: some point if they need to. But you've seen a
Speaker 8: very healthy market in here. That employment numbers out late
Speaker 8: last week were very solid and indicative of markets that
Speaker 8: are coming into better balanced Consumers are pretty exuberant investors
Speaker 8: are pretty constructive.
Speaker 9: But as long as we hopefully get.
Speaker 8: To see a broadening out of mid caps and small
Speaker 8: caps participating more and more industries other than just technology
Speaker 8: driving this rally, we think you'll have a pretty reasonable year.
Speaker 2: All right, cal thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate
Speaker 2: getting a few minutes of your time. Collacrich Life, Chief
Speaker 2: Investment Officer, BEML Family Office.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5: We have the New Hampshire primary kicking off tomorrow, and
Speaker 5: understanding how the election and policies are going to influence
Speaker 5: all these companies and all these industries is going to
Speaker 5: be key based on your returns for the end of
Speaker 5: the year. Joining us now. Political news director for Bloomberg
Speaker 5: TV and Radio, Jody Schneider from New Hampshire. Jody, it's
Speaker 5: been a very turbulent a twenty four hours in the
Speaker 5: political world. What is life there on the ground, without
Speaker 5: DeSantis on the ballot.
Speaker 10: Yeah, it has been.
Speaker 6: We got the news that Ron DeSantis was dropping out
Speaker 6: yesterday as some of us were about to had to
Speaker 6: cover a rally of his, So that's how kind of
Speaker 6: sudden it was. And he of course endorsed former President
Speaker 6: Donald Trump, so that really is kind of making it
Speaker 6: a harder battle for Nicky Haley. She is trying to
Speaker 6: win here in New Hampshire. She needs a very strong
Speaker 6: showing tomorrow in the primary to stay in this race,
Speaker 6: to stay competitive against Donald Trump, and that's going to
Speaker 6: be tough given that Ron DeSantis threw his support to
Speaker 6: his former rival Donald Trump. And also we have had
Speaker 6: some others throw their support, including Tim Scott, the senator
Speaker 6: from Nicky Haley's home state of South Carolina, who she
Speaker 6: put into his job.
Speaker 10: He threw his support as.
Speaker 6: He exited the race, well actually after he exited the race,
Speaker 6: to Donald Trump as well.
Speaker 10: So it's a two person race, but Donald Trump is
Speaker 10: certainly the one to beat.
Speaker 2: So I guess, is there any scenario here where Nikki
Speaker 2: Haley and her team can claim some type of victory
Speaker 2: to maybe keep going here. What would be a I guess,
Speaker 2: A win?
Speaker 6: Yeah, a win would be an actual win if if
Speaker 6: we had a surprise upset and she came in first,
Speaker 6: if she came in a strong second Tim she could
Speaker 6: claim victory that she did well against sort of the
Speaker 6: very strong front runner. The problem with that is that
Speaker 6: South Carolina in a month from now. We have Nevada
Speaker 6: in between, but South Carolina is the next significant race,
Speaker 6: the next significant primary contest, and even though she's the
Speaker 6: former governor, Donald Trump is expected to do very well there,
Speaker 6: especially with that endorsement from Tim Scott. So this makes
Speaker 6: it really hard for her. And unless she does really
Speaker 6: well tomorrow, the betting is that she will drop out
Speaker 6: before South Carolina and an embarrassment in her home state.
Speaker 6: Question a lot of people are already asking is will
Speaker 6: she endorse Donald Trump on her way out?
Speaker 5: So she has said that she will vote for the
Speaker 5: Republican nominee, but will her supporters do that? So I'm
Speaker 5: really curious as to what's going to happen to the independence,
Speaker 5: to the centrist Republicans and the centrist Democrats. If Nikki
Speaker 5: Haley bales, where are we hearing they're going to go?
Speaker 6: Yeah? I mean, there won't be much place for them
Speaker 6: to go in terms of the rest of the primaries. It's,
Speaker 6: you know, it's feeling like all but inevitable that Donald
Speaker 6: Trump unlets again. We have a really surprise upset tomorrow
Speaker 6: that he will be the nominee for the party, and
Speaker 6: an early nominee. This will be the earliest, certainly in
Speaker 6: recent memory, that we've seen the two candidates, the general
Speaker 6: election contenders determined. The question I guess is what happens
Speaker 6: to them in the fall. Do they maybe crossover and
Speaker 6: vote for the Democratic nominee or do they just stay home?
Speaker 6: And a lot of people think there's going to be
Speaker 6: a lot of staying home without without much enthusiasm overall
Speaker 6: for either candidate, and it really will become who can
Speaker 6: turn out their folks. There's also the question of a
Speaker 6: third party candidate. We have no Labels, a group that
Speaker 6: has said that if they don't have anybody besides Donald
Speaker 6: Trump and Joe Biden, that they would look at a
Speaker 6: third party candidate. But there may be some independence that
Speaker 6: crop up that start to get some resonance. Given this
Speaker 6: sort of inevitability, and given the fact as we've seen
Speaker 6: in polling that a lot of people would prefer somebody
Speaker 6: other on both sides Republicans and Democrats would prefer somebody
Speaker 6: other than who they're going to likely get in Donald
Speaker 6: Trump and Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: So, Jodie, what's the thinking in the belt weigh these
Speaker 2: days in Washington about if we do get what seems
Speaker 2: to be the inevitable Biden versus Trump race in November,
Speaker 2: how does that go?
Speaker 3: Who's got the edge? What's the early thinking there?
Speaker 10: Yeah, again, I think it will be a very close race.
Speaker 6: People are saying, and people were talking to here in
Speaker 6: New Hampshire political prognosticators pundits we call them. They are
Speaker 6: saying it's going to get ugly. It's going to get
Speaker 6: ugly fast, and it really will be interesting to see
Speaker 6: if the public, what the public thinks of that and
Speaker 6: what the polls say. We're also dealing with two men
Speaker 6: quite you know older. The current president is eighty one,
Speaker 6: Donald Trump is seventy seven. You know, you are looking
Speaker 6: at really a lack of enthusiasm from younger voters certainly
Speaker 6: about what they're seeing.
Speaker 10: So the question will be would a third party.
Speaker 6: Candidate get some residents or are people just going to
Speaker 6: sort of hold their nose and vote for the candidate
Speaker 6: they find the least objectionable, and again, we may be
Speaker 6: looking at a record low turnout, record low participation general
Speaker 6: election if something doesn't happen to excite voters, because right
Speaker 6: now they are not excited.
Speaker 5: Right It's like, do those centers just stay home? Which
Speaker 5: would be bizarre turnout too, Jody, what sort of policies
Speaker 5: should the markets start to pay attention to? Things like
Speaker 5: making the Trump text cuts permanent, obviously, tariffs on anything
Speaker 5: being imported into the country. It feels like either way,
Speaker 5: enormous budget deficits are here to stay, which I know
Speaker 5: is weird to say when you're also floating a staunch
Speaker 5: Republican on the ticket. What do we start to pay
Speaker 5: attention to now?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think about those things you mentioned, Alex are
Speaker 6: really good points for the markets and investors to start
Speaker 6: looking at as this becomes inevitable that we have Donald
Speaker 6: Trump versus Joe Biden. We know that both have had
Speaker 6: a lot of spending on their plates and some of
Speaker 6: this was pandemic, and you know, came from the pandemic
Speaker 6: and those the paychecks, the checks that went to everybody.
Speaker 6: But also on the tariffs, we saw Donald Trump put
Speaker 6: in place those China tariffs and they have not been
Speaker 6: removed by Joe Biden. So I think there's some things
Speaker 6: here that that investors can start thinking about. These are
Speaker 6: likely to be what we will see with these to men.
Speaker 6: We will also see how do they work with Congress.
Speaker 6: That's the other thing we haven't really had much of
Speaker 6: a chance to talk about, and we will in coming months.
Speaker 6: Both chambers of Congress are really up for grabs. It
Speaker 6: is widely expected that the Republicans could lose control of
Speaker 6: the House given what happened, particularly with their speaker fights
Speaker 6: this past year. The Senate, the Democrats there have a
Speaker 6: harder map to maintain control of the Senate than the
Speaker 6: Republicans do.
Speaker 10: So there's a lot of issues there. Who will work
Speaker 10: well with Congress? Will they get much done well?
Speaker 2: Given that backdrop of just the calendar Jody being an
Speaker 2: election year, what's going to go? What does Congress have
Speaker 2: to get done? Don't they have to keep the government open,
Speaker 2: that's kind of important. They've got some big bills as
Speaker 2: it relates to foreign ad which I know being tied
Speaker 2: to immigration. What's the expectation in Washington and how that
Speaker 2: might proceed in an election year.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so they do have to keep the government up,
Speaker 6: and they've been able to do these short term crs,
Speaker 6: and we've had threatened we've had several rounds of threatened shutdowns.
Speaker 10: We haven't had we haven't had that occur yet.
Speaker 6: But they just keep passing these short term continuing resolutions.
Speaker 6: They just passed another one last week that gets us
Speaker 6: to March, to write around Super Tuesday and right around
Speaker 6: State of the Union.
Speaker 10: Uh, so they do.
Speaker 6: And there seems to be a lot of talk of
Speaker 6: trying to get away from this, but uh, the speaker,
Speaker 6: Speaker Johnson, you know, has a very narrow path to
Speaker 6: get things done. He even if he wants to do things,
Speaker 6: he is the flank of his party that really keeps
Speaker 6: pushing for deeper and deeper budget cuts and doesn't want
Speaker 6: him to work with Democrats.
Speaker 10: But he needs to work with Democrats. So it's a
Speaker 10: tough situation. But at the same time, we may see
Speaker 10: something happen on tax policy.
Speaker 6: There's a bill that went through the House Ways and
Speaker 6: Means Committee, they actually marked it up, they sat down
Speaker 6: and went through it last week that would provide business
Speaker 6: tax cuts, making some of those Trump era tax cuts
Speaker 6: permanent or extending them, and also the child tax credits
Speaker 6: that they the Biden administration wants to see extended. That
Speaker 6: may happen, and if it happens, it would happen pretty
Speaker 6: quickly because they want to do this, particularly with that
Speaker 6: child text credit, before the tax filing season gets into
Speaker 6: full swing. So we may see some tax policy, we
Speaker 6: may see an immigration bill. We have not had immigration
Speaker 6: policy changes of any major sense really in twenty years,
Speaker 6: but they need get this done. The Republicans are saying
Speaker 6: they need immigration policy changes before they will even consider
Speaker 6: extending or are giving more aid to Ukraine as well
Speaker 6: as Israel and Taiwan.
Speaker 5: Jody, thanks lot, really appreciate it. Joey Schneider, Bloomberg, Political
Speaker 5: news director for TV and radio,