WEBVTT - Bitcoin ETFs, Boeing in Check, New Hampshire in Focus 0:00:01.440 --> 0:00:05.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:00:05.400 --> 0:00:08.480 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Car playing Android 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:11.600 Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.520 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:20.279 Well before I went on my little sojore into Aruba, 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:24.200 the bitcoin ETF was the thing that was the story. 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:26.080 I don't know how it's all been. 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:30.000 I do follow Eric Belchuna's research on Bootberg Intelligence and 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:31.920 so that kind of keeps me up up to speed here. 0:00:31.920 --> 0:00:34.800 But let's check out somebody else's in this space. Chris Broaderson, 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:38.640 Managing Director Eisner Amper's Business Advisory Group. 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:40.360 Chris talk to us about. 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:45.479 How important having a spot bitcoin ETF is to the 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:48.040 crypto space and to the ETF space. 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:52.440 Sure, so thanks for having me. I think that the 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:56.160 importance here is that having a spot ETF does a 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:59.320 couple of things. Number One, it lends legitimacy to the 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:03.640 asset cloud that it is recognized as a store of value. 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:07.399 Whether you agree with that or not, It certainly makes 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:12.640 it easier to invest. The average retail investor no longer 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.440 has to worry about things like wallets and key management 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:18.440 and custody and things like that. The other thing that 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:22.560 it does is it potentially broadens the appeal and the 0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:24.320 ecosystem longer term. 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:28.400 So, Paul, since you said you left Friday, that was 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:30.360 the day that all the etf started trading in your 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:32.319 back today. So this is what you missed. In that 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:35.000 first week of trading, spotpick win ETFs and US saw 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.120 about six point five billion dollars in shares change hands. 0:01:38.200 --> 0:01:42.000 That's according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. That is much higher 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:45.000 than any kind of recorded ETFs pegged your traditional assets. 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:47.480 So a lot of people are trading and moving these 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:49.480 things around. Chris, do we know who? 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:55.120 Oh? I don't know who. I assume it's largely retail investors. 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:58.680 I mean, there has been discussion about the institutional investors, 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:01.800 but I think the thing to okusam right now is 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:05.800 who's going to participate from a firm perspective. So, for example, 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:08.240 Vanguard has said that they're not going to offer these 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:11.800 ETFs on their platform, at least not now. Over the weekend, 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:15.000 I was playing tennis with a registered investment advisor friend, 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:17.520 and he said that his firm is in the process 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:22.079 of looking at suitability investor suitability before they decide whether 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:23.959 or not they're going to offer these ETFs. So I 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.760 think over time you're going to see more and more 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:30.960 firms open up their platforms to these ETFs. 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:34.880 You know, Chris, before these things even started trading, seemed 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:38.720 like a price war erupted. Everybody's cutting the fees. Here's 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:40.520 what's going on here. I mean, I guess it seems 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:43.200 like a bitcoins, a bitcoins a bitcoin. How do I 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:45.000 differentiate one ETF from the other. 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:45.840 Is it just fees? 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:47.120 Well? 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:49.040 I think it's fees, But I also think you have 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:51.320 to look at the performance of the manager over time 0:02:51.520 --> 0:02:55.119 and how closely do they track. So if you talk 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:57.960 to Mike Novogratz, for example, he'll tell you that his 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:01.840 Canadian ETF has the best tracking track record of all 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:04.160 the ETFs out there. I can't speak to that. I 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:06.880 don't know if it's true, but I think that you 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:10.640 have to balance the fees along with the track performance 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:11.280 of the manager. 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:15.760 So, okay, aside from that, how many more are you 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.480 think are gonna come? So there's eleven right now. We 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:20.240 get a lot more, a couple more, because I think 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:21.799 the big question everyone has is like, how many of 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:22.960 these guys do you actually need. 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:28.200 Yeah, I've heard that said over and over again, and 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:32.399 I think that ultimately we'll probably end up with half 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:36.120 a dozen or less. I just don't see the need 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:39.360 for thirteen bitcoin ETFs at this point. 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:44.880 So I guess bitcoin there's a lot more to the 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:49.120 crypto space than Bitcoin. How about other ets for I 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.600 don't know, ethereum or whatever else the kids are portraying 0:03:51.640 --> 0:03:52.320 these days. 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:55.800 Sure, so I know that black Rock and a couple 0:03:55.800 --> 0:04:01.440 of others have applied for ethereum based ETFs. I don't 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:03.960 think that we're going to see anything from the SEC 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:07.560 probably until May. But having said that, I think that 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:10.119 those ETFs are going to be a much more significant 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:13.040 in terms of uphill battle. And the reason I say 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:17.560 that is because the SEC has said very staunchly that 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:23.880 all cryptos x bitcoin are considered securities. So these folks 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:26.320 that want and ethereum ETF are going to have to 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:30.279 convince the SEC that the underlying ethereum is not a 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:33.440 security and why it should be allowed into. 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.720 An ETF yep, And that is going to be tricky, 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:38.320 and so maybe we just stick with what we have 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:41.320 and then go down to a little bit less. Can 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:43.520 I short, this thing can I can I put options 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:45.000 on it? Can I do anything? When do you guys 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:45.799 think that's going to happen? 0:04:46.480 --> 0:04:51.440 So pro Shares has already applied to have leveraged and 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:53.840 short bitcoin ETFs. 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:54.839 Because Paul would probably be into that. 0:04:55.000 --> 0:05:00.760 Yeah, yeah, so that I would. I I wouldn't imagine 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:03.320 that those will be coming. But you can also, you know, 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:08.000 trade in the futures market bitcoin, right, so go to 0:05:08.000 --> 0:05:11.520 the CME if you want to play futures and options. 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:15.800 So, you know, Chris, we did get the SEC to 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:19.800 approve this in Genslers. SEC Chairman Gainster was the deciding 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:23.000 vote to the positive. But boy, judging by his tweets, 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:25.880 he doesn't really seem like he's a supporter here. I mean, 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.520 is this thing? Is the SEC spoken? Is this done? 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:32.320 Are we never going back to like Gary Ginster coming 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:34.279 back and saying, you know what, this really is not 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:35.400 what we need here. 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:39.880 Well, I can't speak to what's in Chairman Ginstzler's head, 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:42.359 but what I can tell you is that, you know, 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:47.080 I think the SEC did this somewhat reluctantly because their 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:49.880 hands were sort of tied by the courts. And I 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:52.960 think that the ultimate arbiter of this will be in 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:55.480 the court of public opinion. What happens to the price 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:59.200 of these of bitcoin and bitcoin ETFs over time? Is 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:02.239 it truly or a value? Is it something that people 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:05.680 will look to in times of uncertainty like digital goal 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:09.440 that's been talked about. Time will tell and I wish 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:11.239 I had that kind of crystal all yeah. 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:13.359 Time, And it really depends on what timeframe, right, Like 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:15.000 is it going to take three six months to sess 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:17.000 out or a lot longer. But Paul, what I think 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:20.760 is interesting too is if you want to diversify your investment, right, 0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:23.560 that's the whole idea. Let's diversify, let's do alternative investment. 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:25.960 Do you need ten percent in bitcoin or do you 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:27.239 need like one percent? 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:27.800 Like what? 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:30.000 And that's going to make a big difference into the 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:31.120 uptake of these guys too. 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:32.520 Paul, Yeah, it's interesting. 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:34.719 I think a lot of folks are just saying I 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:36.159 want to have some exposure, by a lot of folks 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:37.640 are saying I just don't need it at all because 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:40.159 I don't understand it. Chris, I know what eyaer after 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.760 you kind of look at kind of all things fintech. 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:46.200 If you will blockchain, what's the next big thing that 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:48.440 you guys are talking to your clients about. Is it 0:06:48.520 --> 0:06:51.719 just more crypto, better crypto? 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:53.880 What's the next big thing you're looking at. 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:58.400 I think that the real opportunity longer term is in 0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:02.839 the tokenization of world and traditional assets. Crypto is interesting, 0:07:03.240 --> 0:07:06.559 it certainly has its place. It's not going away anytime soon. 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.479 But when we look at the efficiency gains and the 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:13.640 ability to fundamentally re architect the middle and back office 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:17.440 functions of a number of financial institutions using tokens, I 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:19.920 think that that is just going to be a huge, 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:21.920 significant opportunity in the future. 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:25.680 So I do my taxes with Eisner Effert. Just full 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:29.400 disclosure inside, I'm like a nine year old person and 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:31.360 I don't want to pay any taxes and I want 0:07:31.400 --> 0:07:34.720 to be really super safe with my investments. What is 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:37.960 the best sort of way to utilize my money that 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:39.960 doesn't involve paying a botload of taxes? Like? Do I 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:42.480 want a bit quinn ETF? From that perspective, do I 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.880 want to switch from the GBC trust to the ETF? 0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:46.040 Like? 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:47.160 Do I want to do those things? 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:50.480 Well, there's a few reasons why you would want to switch, 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:55.240 And this is not investment advice. Alex, please understand that. 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:58.400 But what I can tell you is that with the ETF, 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:02.280 it's much easier to pay your taxes than if you 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:04.160 were to own the bitcoin directly. If you own the 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:06.920 bitcoin directly, now you have basis tracking and a whole 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.760 bunch of other things that you need to report to 0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:13.080 the IRS, as opposed to just getting your statement from 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:14.880 your ETF provider at the end of the year. 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:17.800 All right, Chris, thanks so much for joining us here. 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:20.080 Chris Broderson, Managing Director, Eisner Ampers. 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:25.640 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:29.200 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:32.040 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:35.240 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:40.000 just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:42.520 All right, I just got back from a wonderful trip 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:46.280 down to Rubat and both ways flow. The Boeing seven 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:49.920 three seven nine hundred er worked like a charm, no 0:08:50.000 --> 0:08:50.920 problems whatsoever. 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:54.160 All good. It wasn't the Max, it was the ER. 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:59.480 Now I understand that the ER may have some issues here, 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:01.480 so I don't know what's going on with our good 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:03.760 friends at Boeing. When I think Bowing, I think of 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:08.240 American engineering ingenuity. But boy, they've had a tough four 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:11.120 or five years. Sarar Phillip joins us. He's a deputy 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:14.720 team leader for Global Aviation for Bloomberg News. He's in 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:17.439 our Bloomberg studios, joining us via zoom So thanks so 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:18.439 much for joining us here. 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:21.040 What's going on with Boeing? 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:23.839 I mean, it seems like generations we want without dealing 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:26.000 with anything, and now it just seems like there's a 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:27.760 lot of issues there from engineering perspective. 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:28.480 What do you think's going on? 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:31.559 Thanks both. So, Yeah, there is a lot of scrutiny 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:35.080 over Boeing's manufacturing quality, and the latest sort of scrutiny 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:38.760 is on the seven three seven nine hundred er, which 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:42.559 is the previous generation of the Boeing seven three seven, 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:45.199 which is sort of predates the Max that was used 0:09:45.240 --> 0:09:49.000 on the flight on jan fifth that had that dramatic 0:09:49.080 --> 0:09:53.160 blowout of the plug door. The reason why they've expanded 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:57.000 this probe is basically the nine hundred er uses the 0:09:57.040 --> 0:10:02.240 same type of plugs on its emergency exits as the 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:04.560 one that failed on the Alaska Airlines flight this month, 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:08.880 and That's why the FFAs asked airlines that basically operate 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:12.640 this type to uh do sort of for an additional 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:15.680 level of safety, to sort of have a visual inspection 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:17.360 of it, to make sure it's probably secured. 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:17.880 All right. 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.440 I had a great flight coming back on my seven 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:21.800 three seven nine R. 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:27.280 Plane was great. One problem, A huge problem, screaming kid. 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:29.720 Probably three or four years old, old enough to know 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:31.000 better than his parents should know better. 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:33.000 The entire five hour flight. 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:33.800 That's tough. 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.520 It was brutal, and I just wanted to parents at 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:36.760 the end. 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:38.880 I was like, what do you guys, it's just your fruit? 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:39.960 Did oh totally? 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:42.760 Just says really, And I just said, you gotta do better, 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:43.760 you gotta do better? 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:44.839 Did they say? 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:46.760 They were not happy with this? Is This is the 0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:49.960 same Paul who people in the company here at Bloomberg. 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:52.080 When he doesn't like the way they dress, you call 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:56.280 him you can't wear flip flops in my place of business. 0:10:55.960 --> 0:11:02.120 Well for sure, and there has to be yes also 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:04.680 like sure, buttons you need to not have them low. 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:07.880 That's all for guys anyway, and for girls. So back 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:11.960 on track, said so Boeing made it in to Saturday 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:15.280 Night Live over the weekend. When that happens, I feel 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:17.560 like that becomes a real issue. Like it's now in 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:21.880 the everyday vernacular, it's in the skit of the weekend. 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:25.920 How big a pr problem is this really going to 0:11:26.000 --> 0:11:27.680 be or do we feel like it's already kind of 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:28.120 priced in? 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:32.520 I think it is priced in, but I mean essentially 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:36.320 what everyone's looking for, in what investors are looking for 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:40.480 is basically trying to see how things go from here. Essentially, 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:43.520 the Max nine is still not back in service, and 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:47.560 that's really the key question as to when regulators will 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.480 approve of the procedure to sort of bring them back 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:54.080 into service. And also everyone's looking to see what the 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.000 deliveries look like and whether or not this will have 0:11:57.000 --> 0:12:00.199 any impact on deliveries of new planes that are stretch 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.480 out into next year, because as you know, I mean, 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:05.720 airlines are looking for as much lift as they can, 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:08.959 as much capacity as they can, and this is really 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:11.959 crucial to determine how this sort of demand goes forward, 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.559 especially at the time when there's a little bit of 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:17.520 uncertainty about how the demand's going to play out. I mean, 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:20.640 we've seen revenge travel and we're looking to see sort 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:23.520 of indications of how that's going to play out. I mean, 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.000 a lot of airlines are going to be reporting earnings 0:12:26.040 --> 0:12:28.240 in the next couple of days, and we shall see 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:30.640 what they already talk about outlook. 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:34.280 So sid I mean, I guess the reality is this 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:34.920 is a duopoly. 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:37.920 It's Airbus and it's Bowing. I can't just say I'm 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:38.560 fed up with Bower. 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:41.080 I'm gonna start buying my stuff from Airbus because Airbus 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:43.439 has got multi year backlogs. 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:48.040 So if you're Boeing, what's job one? Do you think? 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:50.920 Is it just is a marketing pr or is it 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:55.360 actually changing your engineering process, your manufacturing process. 0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:59.040 I think it's really focusing on quality and building quality. 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.600 I think that's going to reasuy or public that essentially 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.240 that planes are safe to fly, and also reassure the 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:06.800 customers that they don't have to worry about planes being 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.680 pulled out of service for inspections and sort of the 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:13.199 complexity of it and having to restructure your operations based 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:16.240 on that complexity. So I think the key question is 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.400 getting to a point where you're assured of the quality 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:21.760 of the aircraft and that can sort of give it 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:25.840 some stability in terms of airlines happy your customers are 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:28.079 happy and they're not worried about whether or not they're 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:29.960 going to fly out of an aircraft. And I think 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:31.600 three step one over it. 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.760 I mean that feels like a fair thing. Yeah, okay, well, 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.600 good point. Apparently Alaska Ara is commenting on the seven 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.840 thirty seven, nine hundred er door plug in an email 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:45.080 saying that they find no issues so far in those checks. 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:49.120 So that's something so said normally. As in before today, 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:51.000 I was on TV from ten to twelve with Guy 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.560 Johnson on the European Close and apparently there's like a 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:56.439 storm and stuff, and I guarantee you this is all 0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:58.320 he would have been talking about for two hours. So 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:00.360 I feel like I need to know about the storm 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:02.760 and stuff over in Europe. What's going on with weather? 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:07.520 Yeah, so there's a storm storm ishe that's disrupting travel 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:11.680 causing power blackouts across northern Europe. There's hurricane force winds 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:15.320 that are lashing the sort of northern Europe and the 0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:19.960 UK and Ireland, and so that's really disrupted travel as 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:24.600 well as our supply to various homes in Ireland as 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:27.960 well as the UK, and so I think that has 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:31.360 had a really big impact on a ship all Airport 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.360 in Amsterdam where they've canceled one hundred and thirty flights 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:37.920 this morning, and they've talked about winds being over one 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:39.040 hundred kilometers an hour. 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:42.080 All right, so thanks so much for joining us. Sid Philip, 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:44.800 Deputy team leader Global Aviation for Bloomberg News. 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:50.440 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:53.240 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Affle Car Playing and 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.680 Brounero with the Bloomberg Business app. Listener on demand wherever 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.880 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:02.680 Let's talk about these markets here. 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:04.400 I mean, you know, we started off the first few 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:06.800 days of trading selling off, and a lot of people said, yeah, 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:08.400 that makes sense. We had that huge run at the 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.280 end of the year. But now we found a little 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.400 bit of stability here. So let's check in and see 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:15.720 what some of these professionals are doing. Coler Schlife she's 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.440 one of them. She's a chief investment officer for the 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:21.560 Beimo Family Office. Cayl, thanks so much for joining us here. 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:24.520 You know, a lot of folks were starting this year saying, boy, 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:27.360 that huge gain we had in you know, the last 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:30.080 couple of months of twenty twenty three, they probably pulled 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:32.600 some performance from twenty twenty four a little. 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:33.680 Bit forward here, we're gon be a little bit of 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:34.800 a bumpy here in the beginning. 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.160 What's your take on kind of that thought and kind 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:38.560 of when you talk to your clients, what are you 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:40.480 telling them about twenty twenty four. 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:44.720 Yeah, we definitely agree that markets got a little over 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:47.640 their skis with exuberance in the last couple of months 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:51.320 of twenty twenty three. But the great part was to 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.840 see the broadening of it, not just being the primary 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.200 Magnificent seven or even if you took it out to 0:15:57.400 --> 0:15:59.800 ten or twelve of those top tech names driving them 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.080 majority of last year's market. So we did think you'd 0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:06.360 see some pullback in here. We do think for sustainability 0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:09.720 for markets to behave themselves well again this year, you 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.200 do need to continue to see that broadening out, which 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.360 you really didn't see in the last couple of weeks 0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:15.880 as things have stabilized. 0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:17.840 But it's not unusual at all when you have. 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.200 That kind of run up going into your end, especially 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:22.560 at the late trading volume you would have had between 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.240 Christmas and New Year's when a lot of. 0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:28.840 Those highs were approached. If you will. 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:32.120 It's not unusual at all to see a kind of 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:35.360 reassessment of that. You've also had a pretty major reassessment 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:39.000 in terms of timing and quantity of FED cuts because 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.560 a lot of the market exuberance and late last year 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.520 was looking for cuts starting in March, which we don't 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:46.120 think you'll see. 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:50.840 Just to update everybody, Archer Daniel's Midland down twenty two percent, 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:53.640 most on record. Sure there are reasons cutting its outlook 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:58.440 the CFO on leave, there's some issues and accounting practices. Nonetheless, 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:00.240 if you miss or get hurt in this mart you 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.040 can get really, really hurt. Carol, do you buy the 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:05.080 rip that we've seen in the last couple of days? 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:08.400 Do I buy the I'm sorry? 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:10.240 Do you buy the rip? Do you buy the rally? 0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:11.600 Oh? 0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:14.959 Yeah, I think I'm not sure it's pulled back necessarily 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:17.560 far enough. But with cash on the sidelines, I think 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:19.439 it is time because a lot of people have been 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:22.560 very comfortable sitting in cash, and it's time to start 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.840 locking in either some physicians in the stock market, some 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:28.960 longer term you know, even going out to two, five, 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.520 five years or a little more. In the fixed income markets. 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:37.160 We do think you've seen. You'll see that tenure gravitate 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.120 more towards four and a quarter four and a half 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.679 percent by the end of the year, but it locking 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:46.680 in some potential investments and moving it out of cash 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.400 where it's been arguably a really great place to sit 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:52.240 through much of last year. But when the FED gets 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:55.440 around to starting to cut, you'll see some of the 0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:58.560 nice yields on those money market accounts disappear. 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.600 When I started on Wall Street in the mid eighties, 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:04.960 Japan was the bomb. I mean that was a place 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:08.000 that was growing like crazy. If you wanted to further 0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:09.520 your career in Wall Street, you had to do a 0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:12.800 stint in the Tokyo office. And then for the last 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:15.840 twenty or thirty years there's been nothing, no growth, no place, 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:19.760 and nobody really pay paid attention to it. Now I'm 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:22.680 starting to hear people talk about Japan. I see that 0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:26.200 in your notes. I even heard Warren Buffett talk about Japan. 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:29.160 How are you thinking about Japan here? 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:33.600 I think there's been I too, started when Japan Inc. 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:36.960 Was the cover story on Business Week, and I probably 0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:39.120 still have that cover in my file someplace. 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:42.920 But I think then you, as you so aptly noted. 0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:45.080 We went into twenty or thirty years worth of it 0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:49.160 trying to rally and come back out and disinflation hitting. 0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:51.840 But there's a lot of things structurally that are going 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:54.080 on in Japan right now, and by and large the 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:58.600 globe is underweighted in that very key developed market. But 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:03.160 there's a lot of things, for example, governance issues going 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:06.200 on with publicly held companies there where over half of 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:09.480 them are trading below book value, and there's new regulatory 0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:13.000 oversight saying that you need to get a plan in place, 0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:15.639 you need outside directors on the board, a plan in 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:18.280 place to get those stock prices up. And there's a 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:20.679 lot of things structurally going on there that make us 0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.760 very interested in it. And again the fact that most 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:28.160 of the globe is pretty severely underweighted in Japan because 0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:31.479 of the fact that it's been thirty years since they 0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:33.320 were on magazine covers. 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:36.760 So yeah, fair enough, And this kind of pairs in 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:38.480 with your FED call too, Right, we're all kind of 0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:42.040 waiting for the BOJ to at least end zero percent, right, 0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:44.080 at least a little bit of a baby hike, but 0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:46.960