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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus podcast Podcasts PODCA.

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Speaker 2: All right here, we all.

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Speaker 1: Running in the corner, ten seconds remaining, so it just

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Speaker 1: goes throw out to the basket, under the basket.

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Speaker 3: It's the true for the wind god.

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Speaker 1: Racle, the water hit.

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Speaker 2: That one from a parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Happy March madness to all of you that celebrate. This

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Speaker 1: is truly the best time of year. And let me

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Speaker 1: welcome you to the Action Networks NCAA Tournament Player prop

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Speaker 1: Release show. We're bringing out the heavy hitters for this episode.

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Speaker 1: That means Doctor Nick and Sean Kerner use the quick

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Speaker 1: slips that we're going to be dropping in YouTube chat

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Speaker 1: because you want to get the best bets critically at

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Speaker 1: the best prices, and these two are market movers. So

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Speaker 1: without further ado, let's jump right into it. Nick, you

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Speaker 1: are starting with Ohio States, do it all. They're captain,

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Speaker 1: He scores, he facilitates, he rebound. We're talking about Bruce Thornton.

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Speaker 1: I was surprised to see this rebounding total at four

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Speaker 1: and a half below his season average. Keep in mind

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Speaker 1: he grabbed thirteen boards at one point this year in

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Speaker 1: a game. He's gone for double digits multiple times, so

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Speaker 1: he's someone that obviously rebounds above his position. You think

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Speaker 1: it's a good play here against TCU sitting at four

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Speaker 1: and a half and plus money out in the market

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Speaker 1: at be MGM. A reminder to our audience, you want

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Speaker 1: to shop around because there's some significant differences between books.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so Ohio State TCU. The pick is Bruce Thornton

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Speaker 4: over four and a half rebounds. You can get that

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Speaker 4: plus one oh five at bet MGM. But I'm fine

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Speaker 4: with it if you want to take it minus one

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Speaker 4: oh five. There's or minus one twenties out there because

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Speaker 4: we're projecting about a full rebound higher than this. So

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Speaker 4: you know, this year, when Bruce Thornton's played thirty five

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Speaker 4: plus minutes, which has been twenty six games, he's gone

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Speaker 4: over in more than half of them, fourteen out of

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Speaker 4: twenty six, averaging five point four per game in those

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Speaker 4: And of course we're projecting him to play over thirty

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Speaker 4: five minutes in this one. It's the NCAA tournament. The

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Speaker 4: star players tend to get more run, so we're projecting

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Speaker 4: thirty eight and a half minutes here for Thornton. And traditionally,

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Speaker 4: his big rebounding games have come when teams either shoot

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Speaker 4: a high volume of three pointers or if not high volume,

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Speaker 4: at least they're not a great three point shooting team,

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Speaker 4: and TCU falls into the ladder category. They're a little

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Speaker 4: bit below average in terms of volume of three pointers,

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Speaker 4: but they're not a great three point shooting team, ranking

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Speaker 4: just two hundred twenty third nationally in three point percentage.

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Speaker 4: And I like that because those three pointers they can

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Speaker 4: bounce anywhere, and you know, with Thornton as a guard,

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Speaker 4: he does still get to the rim and get a

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Speaker 4: lot of defensive rebounds, but it always does help a

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Speaker 4: little bit when that shot distribution, the rebound I should

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Speaker 4: say distribution and distance can be a little more varied

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Speaker 4: than a whole bunch of shots near the rim that

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Speaker 4: are being missed. So you know, it's not gonna be

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Speaker 4: a ton of volume from TCU shooting threes, but it'll

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Speaker 4: be still enough volume to where they're not a great

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Speaker 4: three point shooting team that those rebounds can go anywhere,

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Speaker 4: giving Thornton a good chance to go over four and

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Speaker 4: a half and maybe even get you know, one of

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Speaker 4: his bigger rebounding totals of the season. I know he

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Speaker 4: had a couple of big games against Pitt who wasn't

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Speaker 4: a great three point shooting team, although they also had

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Speaker 4: some high volume, but a couple other spots where he

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Speaker 4: was facing some bad three point shooting teams, he was

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Speaker 4: able to get six, seven, eight rebounds. So, Bruce Thornton,

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Speaker 4: we're projecting five point six rebounds in thirty eight and

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Speaker 4: a half minutes.

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Speaker 1: All right, Curner, let's get you involved here and speak

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Speaker 1: specifically to the prop edge tool within the Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: This one is currently the absolute best one in terms

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Speaker 1: of value presented at the current price. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: interesting when you talk about these one verse sixteen, two

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Speaker 1: verse fifteen matchups because you have to start projecting overall

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Speaker 1: minutes and how that cuts into production, and that's going

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Speaker 1: to really be telling a lot of the story here

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Speaker 1: between Yukon and Furhman, talk to me about Terris Reieds

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Speaker 1: Junior and his overall production in this one.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going with terroris Reid under nine and a

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Speaker 2: half rebounds one or two right now at FanDuel. Like

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Speaker 2: you mentioned, this is the top edge and the prop tool.

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Speaker 2: Currently we're projecting them closer to seven and a half boards.

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Speaker 2: But Nick and I had a pow Wow. On the side,

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Speaker 2: I don't think I'm that aggressive with his projection because,

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Speaker 2: like you said, some of these lopsided matchups are kind

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Speaker 2: of tough to project rebounds. So we have a couple

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Speaker 2: of different models, and the one that's more favorable to

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Speaker 2: him is still right around eight and a half boards,

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Speaker 2: so I'm kind of going with that one. I'm going

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Speaker 2: with the more pessimistic projection. It's still under nine and

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Speaker 2: a half boards. But the reason why I like this

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Speaker 2: under is just Furman is, you know, a good shooting team,

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Speaker 2: they play at a slower pace and they turn the

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Speaker 2: ball over at a high rate. They have one of

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Speaker 2: the highest steel rates against in the country, so we

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Speaker 2: could see like a lot of their possessions not end

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Speaker 2: with you know, a shot attempt or a rebound chance.

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Speaker 2: Plus you know they tend to lean heavily on three

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Speaker 2: point attempts, so you know, those misses could spread around

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Speaker 2: for Yukon players as opposed to just all of them

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Speaker 2: funneling to the center. So you know, I kind of

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Speaker 2: like that angle. It's also a game where you know

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Speaker 2: Yukon could just blow them out, keeping reids minutes lower here.

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Speaker 2: But on the flip side, if Furman does keep it

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Speaker 2: close and he does end up playing closer to thirty minutes.

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Speaker 2: It's probably because they're making their shots, so you know,

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Speaker 2: less rebound chances in that scenario. So I think he

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Speaker 2: has a high floor here. I think he's going to

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Speaker 2: end up with like eight to nine boards, but just

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Speaker 2: kind of these subtle factors sort of cap his ceilings.

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Speaker 2: So that's kind of why I think we're projecting, you know,

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Speaker 2: so much value on his under here. So you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm projecting him closer to eight and a half boards,

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Speaker 2: about a sixty percent chance to stay under, but a

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Speaker 2: lot of signals here on the under.

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Speaker 1: Let's go from one two fifteen matchup to another, this

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Speaker 1: one also involving a big man, but I'm going over

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Speaker 1: on Oscar Kluff's combo, which is points plus rebounds, sitting

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Speaker 1: at twenty two and a half at minus one o

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Speaker 1: four in the market. Kluff has looked reborn in the

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Speaker 1: past week. If you watch the majority of the season,

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Speaker 1: he had some stretches where he got into foul trouble.

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Speaker 1: He was kind of out of sync in terms of

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Speaker 1: the offense at and his season average when you look

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Speaker 1: at it in its totality for this combo is a

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Speaker 1: flat eighteen. But in the Big ten tournament that he's

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Speaker 1: coming off of, it was just shy of twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: And what's critical is despite foul trouble in all four

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Speaker 1: games yet either had three or four fouls, Paynter had

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Speaker 1: faith in him and left him on the court. He

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Speaker 1: logged twenty nine and a half minutes per game. Now

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Speaker 1: he also knows what is speaking of Painter, what the

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Speaker 1: analytics community knows, which is when Kluff is playing at

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Speaker 1: a high level, this produced team can win the national

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Speaker 1: championship Perdue. Has the highest rated five man lineup in

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Speaker 1: the tournament per Evan Mia, and that includes Kluff out

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Speaker 1: on the floor, and two of the top five three

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Speaker 1: man lineups as evaluated by MIA also involved Cluff. So

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Speaker 1: this team just takes a huge step up when he's

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Speaker 1: playing meaningful minutes, doing work on the boards and scoring

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Speaker 1: on the low post. You know, if you're looking for

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Speaker 1: a direct comp as well against this Queen's team, look

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Speaker 1: no further than their performance earlier in the year against

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Speaker 1: Villanova and their big duke Brennan. Queens, you know, gave

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Speaker 1: up seventeen points to Brennan, but twenty rebounds Queens can

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Speaker 1: also score. I think this is the difference between the

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Speaker 1: two to fifteen matchup between Yukon and Furman and this

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Speaker 1: one between the boiler Makers and you know, the Queen's team.

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Speaker 1: I think they're going to be able to score seventy

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Speaker 1: five eighty points in this game. Produe's going to run

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Speaker 1: away with it in the second half, but it's going

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Speaker 1: to necessitate Kluff getting at least twenty five minutes, and

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Speaker 1: if he does so, I think he's a lock for

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Speaker 1: fifteen to ten. That's why I like it over twenty

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Speaker 1: two and a half. There's also still a few twenty

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Speaker 1: one and a half's out there in the market, juice

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Speaker 1: to about minus one thirty. I'm comfortable with that as well. Now,

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Speaker 1: what's March known for Obviously college hoops, but we also

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Speaker 1: got spring training baseball in the mix there. But critically,

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Speaker 1: this is the time of year, the best time of

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Speaker 1: year to get a deal on Action Pro. Head over

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Speaker 1: to actionnetwork dot com slash pro to get six months

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Speaker 1: a pro for forty nine to ninety nine. Get in

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Speaker 1: now for access for all of our picks as soon

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Speaker 1: as we log them in the app. As I said

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Speaker 1: at the top, you want to get the best bets

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Speaker 1: at the best prices. No more waiting thirty minutes and

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Speaker 1: getting stale lines. We'll also have as many NCAA player

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Speaker 1: props as you can handle, powered by Sean Kerner, doctor

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Speaker 1: Nick and our entire analytics team that has absolutely killed

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Speaker 1: at the last three years. That's Actionnetwork dot Com slash

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Speaker 1: pro to get yourself signed up today. All right back

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Speaker 1: to you, Nick, We're gonna talk about a six to

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Speaker 1: eleven matchup that a lot of people have circled as

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Speaker 1: a potential upset. Josh O mo Jaffo is a player

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Speaker 1: that came in I believe, from the JUCO ranks. He

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Speaker 1: was a JUCO All American. He's kind of a jack

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Speaker 1: of all trades, has a lot of energy, and as

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Speaker 1: we know, this USF team plays at a breakneck pace,

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Speaker 1: so I was a little bit surprised to see his

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Speaker 1: point total sitting at eight and a half. This is

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Speaker 1: a game that could comfortably be played in the eighties,

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Speaker 1: if not the nineties, so a lot of points to

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Speaker 1: be spread around.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is actually my second pick from this game.

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Speaker 4: I had one I was looking at and the line

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Speaker 4: just kept moving up on Adrian Woolly, so it was like, okay,

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Speaker 4: I can't save that for the show because the line

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Speaker 4: is moving. So tracked that about an hour or two

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Speaker 4: ago in the action app. So make sure you're following

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Speaker 4: me there, Nick underscore Giffing in the Action app. So

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Speaker 4: now we'll go to the other side of the ball.

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Speaker 4: Like you said, josh Omajaffo, he has had a floor

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Speaker 4: of twenty seven minutes over his last six games. So

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Speaker 4: if we look across the whole season when he plays

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Speaker 4: at least twenty seven minutes, he's averaged thirteen point two

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Speaker 4: points in those games, and that's just a little bit

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Speaker 4: more than zero point four points per minute. So we're

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Speaker 4: projecting twenty nine and a half minutes, which is a

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Speaker 4: little bit above that floor. But it makes sense because

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Speaker 4: he's had some mid thirties minutes games in there as well.

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Speaker 4: Especially the last two games have been over the thirty

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Speaker 4: minute mark. So when you scale that zero point four

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Speaker 4: points per minute to twenty nine and a half minutes,

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Speaker 4: that's eleven point eight points. Now, we do have to

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Speaker 4: adjust for the opponent here, Louisville, and you know, Louisville

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Speaker 4: does have a good defense, but that you know can

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Speaker 4: be done by looking at the team total. And so

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Speaker 4: in those games that Oma Jafo, you know, like I said,

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Speaker 4: scaled to about eleven point eight points, well, they were

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Speaker 4: scoring around eighty four and a half points per game,

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Speaker 4: and their team total here is around eighty points, So

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Speaker 4: scale that down and we get about an eleven point

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Speaker 4: one projection. So at eight and a half is quite

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Speaker 4: a low bar to clear for an eleven point one projection.

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Speaker 4: And there's not really any defensive concerns from Louisville in

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Speaker 4: terms of like the where the points come from, and

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Speaker 4: obviously just lower overall because they're a good defense. But

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Speaker 4: in terms of like the percentage of points scored against

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Speaker 4: Louisville from three point, from two point, and from the

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Speaker 4: free throw line all hover right around the national average,

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Speaker 4: so we should expect Omajafo to be right around his average,

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Speaker 4: which again is that eleven point one projection, So projecting

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Speaker 4: more than a point and a half of value here

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Speaker 4: on josh Omajaffo for over eight and a half points.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, your matchup is Michigan State and North Dakota

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Speaker 1: State for your next prop And I can say, having

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Speaker 1: covered the summit throughout the year, North Dakota State likes

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Speaker 1: to challenge you to make shots from the perimeter. They

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Speaker 1: want to pack it in, they want to kind of

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Speaker 1: funnel to the middle of their defense. And there was

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Speaker 1: a game against Saint Thomas, a team that could shoot

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Speaker 1: from the perimeter with they got absolutely boat raced. You

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Speaker 1: think something is on deck here with the Michigan State offense.

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Speaker 1: Which player are you targeting to take advantage of that

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Speaker 1: defensive liability.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to go with Jordan Scott here to

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Speaker 2: make two plus threes here at plus one twenty four

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Speaker 2: over at fanduable. He's a freshman who didn't even become

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Speaker 2: a full time starter until February fourth, so just you know,

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Speaker 2: over a month and a half ago, and he's been

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Speaker 2: shooting lights out from three. He shot forty three and

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Speaker 2: a half percent during conference play, which is one of

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Speaker 2: the highest rates in the country. Now, he probably won't

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Speaker 2: maintain that rate. He probably is due for some regression there.

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Speaker 2: But I think he's going to shoot more threes here because,

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Speaker 2: like you mentioned, North Dakota State is a three point

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Speaker 2: final defense. They've allowed one of the highest rates of

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Speaker 2: three point attempts in the nation, but they also foul

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Speaker 2: at a lower rate too. So you know, Michigan State

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Speaker 2: might not be at the free throw line as much,

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Speaker 2: so just more three point attempts in general to go up.

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Speaker 2: So even assuming he regresses to like, you know, thirty

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Speaker 2: eight percent three point shooter, still projecting this right around

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Speaker 2: minus one twenty because we're projecting him for whopping four

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Speaker 2: point seven three point attempts in this game. So them

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Speaker 2: all likes the over here, love getting the plus money

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Speaker 2: on Jordan Scott two plus three is made.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna turn to the very top of the bracket

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Speaker 1: and that's Duke. And this is a time of year

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Speaker 1: when the casuals love to bet over on everything, you know,

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Speaker 1: every single star player, whether it's Darren Peterson or some

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Speaker 1: of the you know star freshmen around the country. Boozer

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Speaker 1: obviously in that bucket, his total is sitting at twenty

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Speaker 1: three and a half. But I like the under, and

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Speaker 1: I'm going to walk you through the reasons why. For starters,

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Speaker 1: Duke is down Gungba and Foster, so they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: playing with a short bench really for the foreseeable future

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Speaker 1: in this tournament. That reads to me like John Shire

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Speaker 1: needs to be incentivized to reduce some of Boozer's minutes

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Speaker 1: because they need him probably to play thirty six plus

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Speaker 1: minutes in every game down the stretch. They could play

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Speaker 1: whoever they want. In this one, they're gonna beat Sienna.

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Speaker 1: They're close to a thirty point favorite, so this is

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Speaker 1: kind of a situation where he needs to manage his workload. Siana,

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Speaker 1: by the way, has a decent low Major interior defense.

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Speaker 1: They're not playing Mattador defense like some of these high

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Speaker 1: scoring mid major and low major teams, and they also

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Speaker 1: don't foul all that much late in the season as well.

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Speaker 1: They inserted Riley into the starting lineup. He's a seven

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Speaker 1: footer that has made a big difference now PREMLVI logging

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Speaker 1: starter minutes, Sianna was ninety third nationally in two point

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Speaker 1: defense and one hundred and twenty eighth in rebounding, but

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Speaker 1: with him in the lineup playing over thirty four minutes

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Speaker 1: per game across the last four those numbers have bumped

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Speaker 1: up to the SIMA Saints being second nationally in two

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Speaker 1: point defense and ninetieth in defensive rebounding. I understand it's

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Speaker 1: a very small sample size, but is still a noticeable

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Speaker 1: and impressive improvement in terms of their personnel. The final

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Speaker 1: PC here last year Duke huge favorite over Mount Saint Mary's.

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Speaker 1: In that first game, Cooper Flagg had a big number.

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Speaker 1: He only played twenty two minutes and scored fourteen points.

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Speaker 1: The year before that, Philipowski and McCain, who are their

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Speaker 1: leading scorers, they opened the tournament against Vermont they produced

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Speaker 1: three points and fifteen points respectively. And Shier in his

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Speaker 1: very first year, same thing. Philipowski was his best player,

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Speaker 1: just scored six against Oral Roberts in the opener five

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Speaker 1: verse twelve game. To me, what that says is he's

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Speaker 1: more interested in locking down defensively, emptying his bench, and

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Speaker 1: keeping his players fresh for the round of thirty two,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily someone who wants to use this game as

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Speaker 1: a spotlight opportunity for his star players. So there's a

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Speaker 1: chance that this one even bubbles up further because, like

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Speaker 1: I said, the public wants to come in and they

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Speaker 1: want to bet on the star players to score. I

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Speaker 1: think Boozer is going to have those opportunities in the tournament,

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Speaker 1: but not here in the round of sixty four. Now

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Speaker 1: we know some of you may not be able to

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Speaker 1: bet directly on all these props of a Sportsbook. But

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Speaker 1: that's where Underdog and Prize Picks come in handy. Coincidentally,

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Speaker 1: that's my plan where I'm headed as soon as this

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00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,280
Speaker 1: episode finishes. If you want to sign up for Prize Picks,

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00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:33,160
Speaker 1: use action code for fifty dollars in lineups instantly and

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00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,000
Speaker 1: after you play your first five dollars that is available

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00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,440
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00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,280
Speaker 1: action and you'll get fifty dollars in bonus entries after

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00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,360
Speaker 1: you play your first five dollars. Too long, didn't listen,

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00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,440
Speaker 1: I'll get you one more tigme with it. Use code

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00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,680
Speaker 1: action for the best sign up offers for Underdog or

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Speaker 1: Prize Picks. All right, Nick, back to you. What is

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Speaker 1: your third player prop for the episode? Oh, I think

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Speaker 1: you're on mute. You can't miss out. I mean you

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Speaker 1: got to get the best prices on this so we

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Speaker 1: can miss a second of it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Like going on here, right, I'm trying to get

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Speaker 4: the action app set up, and I'm trying to mute

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Speaker 4: so that I can type in things like that. So, hey,

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Speaker 4: it's March for it's madness, and it's madness here in

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Speaker 4: the gift and compound for getting all these things done.

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Speaker 4: I still got to get my bracket out too, so

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Speaker 4: I'll be doing that right after this show. By the way,

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Speaker 4: I'll be writing up my bracket piece and that should

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Speaker 4: come out tonight. Definitely out before the first game tomorrow.

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Speaker 4: But again Texas A and M Saint Mary's, we're going

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Speaker 4: to go to Rashaan AG and we're gonna take under

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Speaker 4: sixteen and a half points. I think the best line

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Speaker 4: out there is minus one eleven at Caesar's Vanduel has

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Speaker 4: a good line. Bet three six y five has a

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Speaker 4: good line. It would just be bet MGM where it's

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Speaker 4: a full point lower there that I would try to avoid.

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Speaker 4: I shouldn't say avoid because we're still projecting under that.

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Speaker 4: It's just if you got so many other options, try

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Speaker 4: to get the sixteen and a half. But this is

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Speaker 4: a really tough spot for AG against a strong Saint

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Speaker 4: Mary's Gale's defense who allows the eighteenth lowest effective field

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Speaker 4: goal percentage, And that's important because there will be shots

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Speaker 4: from the field because Saint Mary's also fouls at the

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Speaker 4: twelfth lowest rate in terms of putting opponents on the line,

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Speaker 4: and that really hurts a seventy five percent free throw shooter.

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Speaker 4: Who is a one hundred top player nationally. So you

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Speaker 4: think about three hundred and sixty five teams, around six

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Speaker 4: seven eight players per team that at least qualify for that.

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Speaker 4: His top one hundred and twenty in free throw rate

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Speaker 4: among all players nationally, So that's really gonna hurt his

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Speaker 4: scoring output by not getting some of those freebie almost

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Speaker 4: freeb points from the line. And with a good free

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Speaker 4: throw shooter like him as well, who's above national average

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Speaker 4: and free throw percentage, and then like we talked about,

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Speaker 4: those shots are gonna have to come for the field.

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Speaker 4: Ag likes to get to the rim, but the Gals

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Speaker 4: are great rim protectors, and that'll force more of those

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Speaker 4: two point attempts to come from a little bit further back.

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Speaker 4: The Gales are top twenty five in the nation in

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Speaker 4: terms of two point percentage or a two point attempt

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Speaker 4: dis stints, right, So pushing opponents away from the rim

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Speaker 4: at a top twenty five rate, which just lowers the

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Speaker 4: field goal percentage on those shots close to the rim,

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Speaker 4: you're more likely to make them. Saint Mary's also, of

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Speaker 4: course a tempo down spot. They're almost three hundred nationally

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Speaker 4: in pace, so I'm projecting just shy of fifteen points, So,

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Speaker 4: like I said, I don't mind under fifteen and a half,

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Speaker 4: but definitely try to get that sixteen and a half

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Speaker 4: because you always want to get the best value there.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean, we're looking at Vandy McNeese, which depends

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Speaker 1: who you ask. Some people think that McNeice is a

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Speaker 1: trendye underdog. They turned teams over a whole ton. I

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Speaker 1: watched a lot of Southland basketball and I can tell

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Speaker 1: you this. They could probably get twenty turnovers in this

380
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Speaker 1: game if they really rev up the heat, but there's

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Speaker 1: always a cost to that. They're trapping, They're leaving people open,

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Speaker 1: lots of open threes on the table for this Commodore

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Speaker 1: team that just shot their way past the Florida Gators

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Speaker 1: and absolutely buried UF in the SEC Tournament, And when

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Speaker 1: it came to McNeice in the Southlam, there were very

386
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Speaker 1: few teams that could consistently punish them with open three

387
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Speaker 1: point looks. So you're targeting a guard from the commodoors

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Speaker 1: and you think he's set for a big game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, those are great points and exactly why I'm on

390
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,560
Speaker 2: Tyler Nicol Vanderbilt to I'm going with this all over,

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Speaker 2: so fifteen plus points at plus one sixty two at fandal.

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Speaker 2: I'll get to why I'm thinking is it all over

393
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Speaker 2: in a second. But you know, Nichol's been in a

394
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,399
Speaker 2: bit of a slump lately, but this does seem like

395
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,600
Speaker 2: a great matchup for him, specifically to bounce back in.

396
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Speaker 2: He's an excellent shooter, shoots eighty seven percent at the line,

397
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,160
Speaker 2: forty percent from beyond the arc. And McNeice, like you mentioned,

398
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Speaker 2: they allowed a ton of three pointers, one of the

399
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 2: highest rates in the country, and you know they send

400
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Speaker 2: their opponents to the free throw line at one of

401
00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:46,399
Speaker 2: the highest rates. Plus they're only you know, eleven and

402
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Speaker 2: a half point underdogs. Like you said, they're kind of

403
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,440
Speaker 2: a trendy pick. So I think we'll keep it close

404
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,720
Speaker 2: enough for Nicol to see his normal minutes right around

405
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Speaker 2: that thirty thirty five range. But the reason I'm taking

406
00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,359
Speaker 2: is over his props twelve and a half. But he

407
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,000
Speaker 2: is all over the place like he'll score a Nickel

408
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 2: five points or nineteen points. He's rarely scoring like, you know,

409
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 2: twelve to thirteen points in that range. So I think

410
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Speaker 2: it's going to be not even close either. I'm going

411
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Speaker 2: to lose this horribly or win it easily, so might

412
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Speaker 2: as well just go for its ceiling, right. So I

413
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Speaker 2: think fifteen plus points here is the right spot, projecting

414
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 2: that closer to plus one one thirty, but we're getting

415
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Speaker 2: at plus one sixty two.

416
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Speaker 3: So I like the value here.

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Speaker 1: We talked earlier about USF against Louisville. I'm going to

418
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,639
Speaker 1: double dip here. I like the leading scorer for the

419
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,200
Speaker 1: Bulls wes Ens over seventeen and a half points at

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Speaker 1: minus one ten. This is the second highest projected total

421
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Speaker 1: on Thursday. And the big part of it is that

422
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 1: Seth Florida will push the pace at every turn fifteenth

423
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:44,359
Speaker 1: nationally in adjusted tempo, and Ennis has been red hot.

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Speaker 1: He's exceeded seventeen points in seven of his last eight games.

425
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Speaker 1: And I look at this as you know, what are

426
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Speaker 1: my outs? I have multiple routes to a big game

427
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:53,919
Speaker 1: out of him because he has both three point volume

428
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 1: and foul shooting volume. He has multiple games with nine

429
00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 1: made three throws in the last month, and seven games

430
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 1: with nine or more three point attempts since mid February.

431
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Speaker 1: That's a guy who's got a green light to just

432
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,120
Speaker 1: absolutely gun it for forty minutes, and when you look

433
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 1: at the defender options for Louisville, you could have a

434
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 1: banged up mckel brown with that back injury, or Ryan Conwell.

435
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,280
Speaker 1: And if it's Conwell, that's good news because if you

436
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 1: look at Evan Mia and he grades out every single

437
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,239
Speaker 1: player across the country at a granular level, you can

438
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 1: look at him as a defender and as someone who's

439
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 1: a foul liability. Conwell is C plus rated as a

440
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 1: defender and also C plus in terms of falerrate. And

441
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 1: if they go with Adrian Woolley instead, he's even worse

442
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: in terms of faler ate at a sea which is

443
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,199
Speaker 1: forty six percentile in the entire country. So if this

444
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 1: is an up and down game and I get fifteen

445
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 1: to twenty shots out of Ennis and he gets to

446
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 1: the line seven or eight times, I think the seventeen

447
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 1: and a half is ripe to fall. All Right, that's

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00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 1: it for us. We'll be back next Wednesday with another show.

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00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 1: There'll be more props coming through as soon as Nick

450
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 1: Seawan or I log them in the Action Network app.

451
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: So of course need to be following us and be

452
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 1: an Action Pro subscriber to get the best bets at

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00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,399
Speaker 1: the best prices. These prop lines move incredibly fast, so

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00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: it's important for you to get those real time alerts.

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00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 1: As an Action Pro subscriber, best of luck with all

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00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 1: your bets and.

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00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 3: We'll see you at the window.

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00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler