WEBVTT - The AMA Episode: Tracy and Joe Answer All Your Questions 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:13.320 Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. 0:00:13.400 --> 0:00:17.639 I'm Tracy Allaway and I'm Joe Wise Joe. It is 0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:21.439 a very special episode of the Odd Blots podcast. It 0:00:21.600 --> 0:00:25.959 is the Christmas call in Show. I am very excited. 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:29.000 We've never done you know, we've never done an episode 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.520 like this. We've never really had like sort of listener participation, 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:36.080 We've never had anything resembling a call in show. We've 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:38.640 never really done an episode like about us, which feels 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:42.280 a little narcissistic. I usually like being I like I 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:45.760 like asking questions more than answering questions, right, That's why 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:48.280 we all became journalists. But you're right, this is a 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:51.080 special one for us. We asked people to send in 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:54.959 audio recordings of them asking us questions, and we are 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:59.120 now going to attempt to answer them. We also are 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:02.880 doing this in in junction with our producer, Carmen Rodriguez. 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:05.320 She is here with us right now. And Carmen, you 0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:08.640 put together some questions of your own, right I have? 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.240 I have, And I just feel like I'm being robbed 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:13.679 of my moment to say thanks for having me, so 0:01:13.720 --> 0:01:17.759 thanks for having me jumped right into the perfect way. 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:20.600 I guess You're not the perfect guest, the perfect coast, 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:23.120 the perfect host, the perfect co host, but it is 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:26.440 exciting that the listeners are hearing your voice for the 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:28.360 first time. I guess maybe they heard it on some 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:31.200 of those live episodes. Maybe maybe. Anyway, thank you for 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:32.640 having me. I'm happy to be here, even the I'm 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:36.120 here every day we are. We are happy to have 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:38.919 you in front of the camera and the microphone UM 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:41.320 as opposed to behind it for once. Uh, what's your 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:44.839 first question? My first question is how did you meet 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:52.680 and how was odd Lots born. I guess I'll start 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:55.520 with the beginning, which is I remember the first time 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:58.160 I met Joe, and you know, we we had both 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:01.240 been covering UM finance and markets for a long time. 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:03.280 Joe was at Business Insider at the time and I 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.400 was at the Financial Times, And I remember I met 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:09.920 him in a bar in Midtown and it must have 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:12.560 been like two thousand twelve or it was in the 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:14.880 midst of the Eurozone crisis, and we were having a 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:18.040 sort of finance Twitter gathering, but Joe and I showed 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:21.400 up first. And I remember, for those who have never 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:25.280 met Joe in person, he can be intense and I 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:28.680 remember there was no like, no chit chat. It was 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:30.560 just like, Hi, I'm Tracy, Hi I'm Joe. And then 0:02:30.639 --> 0:02:33.120 Joe's first question was like, so you think the Eurozone 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:38.920 is going to collapse? That was a yeah, no, yeah, 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:41.520 that's Tracy is right about that. I'm not good at like, 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:43.200 you know, chit chat and stuff like. I just want 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:46.560 to get right into it. But anyway, obviously, um, you know, 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:49.800 we hit it off pretty well despite the lack of chip. 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:56.880 I joined Bloomberg in late so basically exactly eight years ago, 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:00.840 and as part of like my job at Bloomberg is 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:04.760 like evolved numerous times since then, like I've done numerous 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:07.400 different things and different permutations. But one of the first 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:09.840 things I was given the opportunity to do is Okay, 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:12.760 we're gonna do something digital. Wasn't a podcast or anything 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:15.720 like that yet, and I had a chance to go 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:19.000 out and hire some people to work, and Tracy was 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:23.320 the very first person that I wanted to hire. Clearly, 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:27.079 I answered the your zone question correctly, you got it right. 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:29.080 I don't remember what you said, but clearly you got 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:30.920 it right. Because I had always been a fan of 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:35.400 Tracy's work when she was at the f t and uh, yeah, 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:37.280 she agreed to come on, and you know, it's like 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:38.960 she had been at Bloomberg once, so there was like 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:42.120 a little like bureaucracy like getting back and all that stuff. 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:43.960 But we didn't really know what we were doing. But 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:47.080 I was excited and that yeah, and so um that's 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:51.440 how we both both wounded up here nice great so 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:53.080 on the then and then I guess I'm like the 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:56.640 podcast question and it just before we forget about that. 0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:58.320 We sort of like didn't know what we were doing 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:00.200 and we're doing a lot of different things, and I 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:01.960 remember like one day I like turned to Tracey. I 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:03.800 was like, we do a podcast together. And you know, 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:06.400 we sort of like at the time, podcast weren't nearly 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:09.200 as big as they are now. Not every media company 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:12.280 like had their whole podcast strategy and all these podcast 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:16.120 startups and Bloomberg was like, yeah, okay, you guys can 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:18.040 We don't know what it's gonna be about or anything 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:19.560 like that, but all right, we'll give you like an 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:22.400 hour of radio studio once a week or something to 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:24.360 do whatever. We didn't know what odd Lots was going 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:26.719 to be about, but turn on the microphone. And that 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:29.760 was late twenty fifteen who've been doing it like seven years. 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:31.880 Did you ever have a moment when you were like, Okay, 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:33.280 we should really hone in on what it is that 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:35.159 we're doing here because we're all over the place like 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:37.359 at the beginning, or did it just kind of naturally 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:39.640 form itself into what it is now? I mean, I 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:43.920 think I think that kind of flexibility is in my mind, 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.240 a strength of odd lots, and it means that, like, 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:49.440 we haven't confined ourselves to one topic in particular, and 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:52.440 it means that we've been able to evolve along with 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:54.560 the news cycle. So if you go back and look 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:57.320 at some of our early episodes, some of them are 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.599 really out there. Like I remember we did one on 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:04.040 Nana's basically because I'd read a book about bananas. For nowadays, 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:05.520 we would look at that episode and say, it's a 0:05:05.520 --> 0:05:09.240 banana supply chain episode. But then we did a lot 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:12.160 of finance stuff. You know, we just sort of like 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:14.840 went along with the news cycle until we arrived at 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.719 where suddenly a lot of it was about things happening 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:21.200 in the real economy. And I think that's really benefited 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:23.520 us that we haven't said, you know, this is a 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:28.080 podcast specifically about this and then been bossed in. I 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:32.839 do think, you know, maybe late nineteen, like it's tracy, 0:05:33.440 --> 0:05:35.360 like the first episodes, you could go back and look 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:38.520 like they're super random, like bananas. We did a few 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:41.200 episodes about like Florida real estate. We did an episode 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:44.719 about catfish, the catfish bubble, the catfish bubble. We did 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:47.160 an episode I think about cattle trade, and he was 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:49.760 there kind of all over the map. I think it 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:52.920 was like late nineteen we started like finding it a 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:55.080 little bit, you know. We did some of the uh 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:59.520 we did an episode I think with resulting in when uh, 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:01.880 they'll look qudity and the repo stuff and the federal 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:04.960 reserves are draining. But it really was early with the 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:07.719 pandemic that it felt like we were starting to get 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:10.320 a groove in terms of what is the show kind 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:12.720 of about and what is our relationship between the episodes 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:14.640 and the news cycle. And I think that's what we 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:17.719 really found out rhythm. On that note, I also wanted to, 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:20.560 you know, to continue that basically. So I've seen you 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:22.240 sort of follow the pulse of what's going on in 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:24.480 markets and that kind of dictates a lot of the programming. 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:26.400 But every now and then you kind of get these 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:29.520 like weird, unexpected connections, and I think that's very particular 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:32.360 to the Odd Lots brand, And so I want to know, 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:35.680 have you ever seen these unexpected connections directly or somewhat 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:39.560 directly affect the market structures that aren't the more cyclical 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:46.159 things in the stories or anything like that. You are, yeah, well, 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:49.000 I think I think, like the way I think about 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:52.240 markets is it's sort of this tangled web, and some 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:56.680 bits of the web are more obvious than others, but 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:58.680 some of them are really hidden. And so I think 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:01.120 whenever you have something big happens, or you have a 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:03.520 crisis of some sort, you kind of start to pull 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:07.280 the threads and you start to see these connections. And 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:09.440 the great thing about All Lots is we will have 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:15.200 a conversation about one thing um like semiconductors, and then 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:17.560 it just leads us down a rabbit hole to the 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:20.280 next thing. And the global economy and markets right now 0:07:20.280 --> 0:07:25.520 are so interconnected that you are always finding those hidden relationships, 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:30.480 and so it's almost like it's really easy to book 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:35.360 episodes now because one episode will naturally lead into five 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.000 other episodes. And we always joke about it that we 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:40.800 come away with an episode with five other episode ideas, 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:44.720 but it's really true. Yeah. You know. The other thing 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:47.040 I would say these days too that makes it easy 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:50.120 is and we've talked about this and listeners have talked 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:52.920 about this, like for years. I would definitely say our 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:56.720 episode topics financial for obvious reasons. You know, it's coming 0:07:56.720 --> 0:07:59.880 out of the financial crisis and you know, and then 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.920 are like episode with COVID and the pandemic started screwing 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.440 more towards physical supply change, and so now you just 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.240 see it everywhere, right, like you just whether it's like 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:14.320 prices on the menu or everyone experiencing a shortage of something. 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:16.680 And so then we sort of it's all like the 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:20.520 physical visible world becomes a really big source. Now you 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:22.360 just like see it everywhere, and so trade like there's 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:26.520 too many topics for us to possibly discuss, Like there's 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:28.480 always more things we want to talk about that we 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:30.440 could talk about like in a given month or a 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.800 given week, just because like you look around like, oh 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:36.000 that'd be interesting, that'd be interesting, And so yeah, there's 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.320 just a it's a it's an endless fire hose of 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:40.960 topics that we see from just observing the real world. 0:08:41.240 --> 0:08:46.360 Do you have a favorite unexpected moment, unexpected connections moment. Oh, 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:48.800 I have one, and I only know this because I 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:53.719 wrote about it, But it's um, sawdust and housing and 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.200 milk prices. So so you know when we're talking about 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:59.480 this sort of web of relationships in the real economy. 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:02.400 And this is a good example, which is that after 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:07.439 two thousand eight, you had a rise in milk prices 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:11.360 and there was someone who like dug into why that 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:13.880 was happening, and they found out that the reason it 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.800 was happening was because the housing bubble had burst, so 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:20.600 there wasn't as much housing construction, which meant that there 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:24.600 wasn't as much sawdust being produced. And it turns out 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:28.760 that cows really like to sleep on beds of sawdust. 0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:32.040 So basically, because of two thousand eight and the housing 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:35.480 bubble bursting, a bunch of cows were unhappy and we're 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:39.320 producing less milk, which translated into higher milk prices. I 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:41.040 just want to jump in here really quick and say 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:45.040 that that reading that before you said this um actually 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:48.280 won me at trivia the other night because someone was like, 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:51.760 do cows produce more or less milk when they sleep 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:54.520 on sawdust? And I'm like, I don't know who wrote 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:56.680 this question. It was one of those card games you 0:09:56.679 --> 0:09:59.040 have to guess whether it's true or false. And I 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.160 was like, that is you knew? They like, yeah, it 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:02.880 has to be more sawdust because you have to be 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:04.880 comfortable and happy so that they make my milk. Anyway, 0:10:04.880 --> 0:10:10.280 I just want to say thank you. I did win. Yes, yes, 0:10:10.320 --> 0:10:14.160 I think the recent one we did with Ken Jerash 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:19.079 where he mentioned that because of the semiconductor shortage, they 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:22.360 produced fewer cars. Because they produced fewer cars, they had 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:25.600 less demand for hides for seeds. Because there was less 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.520 demand for hides for seeds, there was less gelatin produced 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:32.360 from as a byproduct, and that impaired the production of 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:35.120 gummy bears. It was like a really amazing one that 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:37.040 I would have never thought of. But I do think 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:40.559 it speaks to like the complexity of the Like there 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:43.679 is sort of this obvious complexity to supply chains, right, 0:10:43.760 --> 0:10:46.040 it's like point A, point B, point ce you just 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:48.600 roup something than the whole ripple effects. But I think 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:51.679 it's like seeing these sideways things where it's like the 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:55.079 even Ken I think in that episode he's like, it's 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:57.440 not a supply chain, it's a supply web, and that 0:10:57.520 --> 0:10:59.920 was really interesting, Like there's not just like some start 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:03.079 product and end product. There's like all these sideways moving 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:06.520 from all the by products that get created, the waste 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:08.760 products that get used, and the other things. And I 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.480 think it's really hard explains why it's really hard to 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:16.440 know how huge disruptions to society like a pandemic are 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:18.880 really going to play out because no one talks about 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:21.440 these things in normal time. It's like they're so submerged, 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.640 so invisible during normal times. You only see them after 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:29.040 the fact. Like shoot, the impairment of cars affected gummy bears, 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:32.600 no one would ever talk about that relationship prior to 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:37.559 it having been exposed. And that's for your next trivia game, listeners, Yes, 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:57.720 do you have anything that you now can't stop thinking about? 0:11:57.800 --> 0:11:59.800 Like I think an example where for me would be 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:03.640 I'm eating Anthony Bourdain's I'm reading Anthony Bourdain's Kitchen Confidential, 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:07.720 and he describes about how how chefs designed their menu 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.640 based off of what's available and when when they're delivered. 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:13.000 Like if you're lady, if you're ordering fish on a Thursday, 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:14.360 that might not be the best day because it's not 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.800 as fresh, whether or not this is true now It's 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:19.520 all I can think about whenever I look at a menu, 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:21.800 So like, have you learned anything via odd lots that 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:24.880 still sticks with you in the same capacity today? I think, 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:27.760 for me, the one thing and it's not like some 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:32.360 sort of like necessarily idiosyncratic thing like that, but I'm 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:35.160 and maybe it's not even the odd lots, but I'm 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:40.360 very I really notice energy waste in heat, particularly after 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:44.440 all the episodes we've done on European energy costs and 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:46.600 having to turn down the temperature and stuff like that. 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.480 Like a few months ago, Joe has turned into like 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:52.440 the ultimate Dad where you just wander around the house 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:56.120 like flipping off light switches and turning down the third step. Well, 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:58.960 a few months ago I went to a public beach 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:00.840 and it was like a shot hour at the beach 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:03.000 and you know, like clean off your feet and stuff 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:05.640 like that, and the shower had a warm water option, 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:07.440 and I'm like, what are you doing, Like people don't 0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:10.800 need warm waters at a public shower at a beach 0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:12.520 to white to wash up your feet. I was like, 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.360 this is a really scandalous waste of energy. Like two 0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:18.160 years ago, like oh, like turn on the showers like 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:20.240 nice warm water for feet, But I was like, this 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:22.320 is a huge waste. Why didn't they even give this option? 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:25.319 So I do think that like energy waste and heat 0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:28.000 in particular, like I just like think about all the 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:31.120 time all the time. Now, yeah, I don't take it 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:34.280 for granted anymore. I mean I guess on a similar note, 0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:36.440 I think about supply chains a lot more than I 0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:40.040 used to. But I also, you know, setting the real 0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:43.800 economy stuff post side. I also think a lot about 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:48.760 incentives and why people do the things they do, like 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:53.200 often have to do much more with short term incentives 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:57.640 than necessarily like rational long term outcomes. For instance, if 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:00.320 you if you're talking about like wire invest or is 0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:03.840 investing in risky, higher yielding stuff, Well it's because they 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:05.760 have a bunch of new inflows and they have like 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:08.440 a yield bogey that they need to actually meet. And 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:11.160 so I think about that a lot more like how 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.440 are the incentive set and how does that influence what 0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:18.960 people are actually doing? Pivoting away now and talking about crypto. 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:20.840 Was there a moment when you decided like, okay, we 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.520 should actually start paying attention to this and taking it seriously, 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.080 at least for the newsake. I would love to know 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:30.920 if you had a moment like that, Joe, you go first, well, 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:33.840 you know, like, look, so I'm a market s reporter. 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:36.320 I always have been, and people ask me what's market 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.880 and I would say completely and ironically, it's like it's 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:41.440 a line that goes up and down. If there's a 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:43.200 line on a screen that goes up and down, it's 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:46.520 probably a market story. Uh, And Crypto is like the 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:48.760 ultimate line that goes up and down. And you know, 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:52.160 in the beginning, I think it was. It didn't take 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:55.480 very long for me not to like take it seriously 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:58.200 per se, but to realize that maybe some of my 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.520 assumptions about like oh this is just a flash in 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:02.800 the pan, like we're gonna be wrong. And I probably 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:06.240 like wrote some like Crypto obituaries and like twenty eleven 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:08.000 or something like that, and then like eventually, like it 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:10.800 didn't die, and I kept thinking it would. So at 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.640 some point I guess I was like, well, tried to 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:15.800 wrap my head around like what is this, like what 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:18.840 is actually going on? And after like a decade, like 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:21.680 I still don't really have like an opinion or review 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:24.680 or an idea where it's going, but I guess if eventually, 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.920 like something doesn't die long enough, if it goes on, 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:31.240 then naturally I think if you're a journalist or if 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.400 you're anyone, you should sort of have some like, Okay, 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:35.360 what am I getting wrong? Maybe I should actually like 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:39.440 pay attention so something we are in I remember writing 0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:41.880 a piece four Business Insider, and I was like I 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:44.320 was wrong, like about crypto, and I sort of like 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:46.880 admitted it. And I did not like, oh, bitcoin is 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:50.360 gonna become the world's reserve currency or something or anything 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.440 like to capitulatory, but I did say, like, okay, like 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.280 I it hasn't died, and I don't think it's going to. 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.200 And there's some interesting problems that it seems to solve, 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:02.200 like it in computer science. And ever since then, I've 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:03.840 just sort of had this like tried to be like 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:06.440 open mind and curious, and after all this time, I 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:08.040 still don't have a view, but you know, I try 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:10.600 to be trying to be open minded that like there's 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:14.480 something there. So two things, they're one I totally agree 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.800 with the idea of crypto is like the ultimate expression 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:20.040 of lines going up or down, like the ultimate momentum play. 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:22.640 And so if you cover markets like you know, there 0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:25.400 is a natural interest. The second thing is someone once 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.800 described it to me as far more interesting than it 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:32.400 is important, which I thought was a really good way 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:36.040 of putting it, because you're talking about the creation you know, 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:38.280 you're talking about new technology, but you're also talking about 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:40.920 the creation of a new type of money, and that 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:44.280 just opens up all these interesting questions about well, what 0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:48.200 is money? And how do you design a new financial system? 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:50.520 And then lastly, the one other thing I would say 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:54.520 is I think we made a conscious decision to engage 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:57.440 with the space and try to ask some of the 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:01.960 harder questions like where does the yell to actually come from? 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.720 What is the use case for this brand new technology 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:07.720 that you say is going to change the world. And 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:11.800 you know, we have asked those questions in various iterations 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.000 for many many years now, um, and it's an open 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:17.520 question about whether or not we've gotten a satisfactory answer, 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:19.800 but like we have tried to engage with the space 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:23.720 to ask those hard questions. Yeah, I think like engaging 0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:26.159 with the space like in good faith and like you 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:28.199 know sort of and it's like let's engage with it 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:31.200 on its own terms, and like talk to people who 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:36.520 un ostensibly are its best, uh, you know, the best, 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:40.680 most involved characters who should have the best answers, and 0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:42.560 to sort of like come at it with it's like, yeah, 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:45.040 clearly we have skepticism. We don't really know what it's 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:47.800 forwards going. We want to like hear honest answers and 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:50.920 have like genuine questions. But it's true that even after 0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:53.840 all this time, like I literally have no idea like 0:17:54.240 --> 0:17:56.680 what it's ultimately going to be used for, if anything. 0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:00.080 So we're going to get to the questions for the 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:02.560 audience soon. But do you have a favorite guest that 0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:06.760 you've had on over the years. I think, I mean, 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:11.320 we have so many. Um it's like asking us to 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:16.760 name favorite children. Um. I I really enjoyed having this 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:20.280 was before your time, Carmen. This was way in the beginning. 0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:24.240 We had on the archaeologist Arthur Demorrist, who's been at 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:28.400 various times described as the real life Indiana Jones. And 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.840 I have like a very small hobby where I like 0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:34.240 to read archaeology and anthropology books and so talking to 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:37.960 him was fascinating, and I remember the conversation was about 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:42.760 the collapse of civilizations. I think about that episode a lot. 0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:46.840 I don't know if I you know, I really liked 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.960 a recent episode with Gordon McGill, which I don't know. 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:51.880 It's like, oh, is he my favorite guest? I would 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:54.040 not necessarily say that, but I would say, like, in 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:56.680 terms of what I would say if I wanted to identify, 0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:58.560 if I wanted to send someone what I would think. 0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:01.879 It's like a very like quint to Central episode of 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:03.920 Odd LODs would be something like that, we like dive 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.639 into something deep. We talked to a guest who was 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:10.119 not like a huge household name, which is one of 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:12.280 the things I really like about having done this show 0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:14.840 for years, Like we have had some really big guests on, 0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:17.400 like big names, and I'm really like thrilled that they'll 0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:19.760 come on, Like it's cool. How often like say Neil 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:22.320 cash Cary, the head of the Minneapolis Fed, has come on, 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:25.840 or Jan Goldman Sacks for people like that. But I 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.399 have to say, for me, like, the most satisfying thing 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:30.639 or one of the most satisfying things that we do 0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:34.920 is when we find someone Tracy mentioned Arthur, people who 0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:38.280 aren't necessarily household names, and people are like, oh, this 0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:41.560 is someone who really uh is good? You know? Stincent 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:45.639 Dean The lumber Trader is another one. Kind of like that. 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:48.160 People who are like really in some area aren't nearly huge, 0:19:48.160 --> 0:19:51.359 but because of their localized expertise, can really speak to 0:19:51.400 --> 0:20:10.080 some really big macro topic. Should we take some questions 0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:14.640 from the audience? Hi, Tracy and Joe, This is well 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:17.520 thanking from London. Over the last couple of years, Odd 0:20:17.560 --> 0:20:20.280 Lots has become a favorite podcast. I have to admit, 0:20:20.320 --> 0:20:23.080 though there are episodes like those on market structure, what 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:28.359 my comprehension level is in the most optimistic estimate, given 0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:30.640 the breadth of topics you gets covered with the perfect 0:20:30.640 --> 0:20:34.720 guests to each of you have a comprehension of of 0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:39.160 your episodes, Thanks and keep up the great work. Uh 0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:42.840 do we actually understand what we're talking about? I mean, 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:45.760 I would say, like, we cover a lot of stuff, 0:20:45.800 --> 0:20:48.040 and I think it would be unrealistic to assume that, 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:50.640 like both Joe and I arrive at every episode with 0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:54.159 a total understanding of the particular market or topic that 0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:58.120 we're speaking about. And I think that actually lends itself 0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:01.159 to a better show because we are starting at the 0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:04.199 same level of knowledge as your average listener, and so 0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:07.000 we can ask the basic questions like what do we 0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:10.840 mean when we say like whatever? Um? And then the 0:21:10.880 --> 0:21:13.280