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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second spo. Hello, Welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm Sean Zerrilla joined

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Speaker 2: today with Billy Warred to help you break down this

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Speaker 2: weekend's UFC card, give you our best bets, favorite underdogs,

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Speaker 2: top props and more. And if you'd like to tell

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Speaker 2: some of the bets that we discuss on today's show,

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Speaker 2: you can look for the quick slip links both in

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Speaker 2: the podcast and the video description, or visit actionetwork dot

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Speaker 2: com slash bet Now. Twelve Fight card from Vegas, going

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Speaker 2: down at six pm Eastern on Saturday. Main card nine

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Speaker 2: pm Eastern. Six fight main card nine pm Eastern. The

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Speaker 2: main event Tatsierro Tyra going up against Youngsung Park Park

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Speaker 2: a late replacement for Ramiro Basi. Late as in as

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Speaker 2: of three or four days ago. It was supposed to

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Speaker 2: be Tyra against Albasi, so Park stepping in on super

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Speaker 2: short notice here and worth noting he's only seen a

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Speaker 2: third round twice in his professional career. Is undefeated. Entered

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Speaker 2: off of road to UFC, got a couple of UFC

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Speaker 2: wins against Carlos Hernandez and Shannon Ross, and is now

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Speaker 2: getting elevated to a short notice the main event spot

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Speaker 2: in place of El Bosi, and I do think getting

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Speaker 2: a Tyra fight on short notice is a particularly tough

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Speaker 2: cast because this is a kind of guy that you

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Speaker 2: would want a full camp to prepare for. I think

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Speaker 2: Billy could speak more to the technical aspects of that,

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Speaker 2: but if I were fighting Tatsiro Tyra, I would want

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Speaker 2: as much preparation time as possible in order to prepare

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Speaker 2: for his grappling style. Coming off of his five round

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Speaker 2: lost first career loss against Brandon Royval, Rebel was able

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Speaker 2: to have some rappling success but largely got out struck.

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Speaker 2: Now he has made improvements to his offensive striking game

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Speaker 2: throughout his career. Where I do worry about Tyra in

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Speaker 2: this fight potentially is the defensive striking because he only

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Speaker 2: defends strikes about a forty for forty six percent clip.

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Speaker 2: He is hittable and Park does swing very hard. He's

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Speaker 2: not the most technical fighter, not the most technical boxer,

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Speaker 2: but he will wing punches and try to hurt his opponents.

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Speaker 2: He has some submission skills of his own, but ultimately

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Speaker 2: I do like Tyra to get this fight to the ground,

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Speaker 2: control things, and potentially to finish Park later on in

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Speaker 2: the proceedings, especially as Park likely tyres out in the

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Speaker 2: championship round. So I like Tyra. I like Tyra live

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Speaker 2: probably two after round one to round two, considering he's

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Speaker 2: the fighter on the full camp. If Park has any

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Speaker 2: early success, if that price moves in, I think he

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Speaker 2: could probably live bet Tyra at a better number. But

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Speaker 2: I also like the fight to end inside the distance

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Speaker 2: at about minus one to seventy five, and the fight

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Speaker 2: or Tyro to win inside the dissens at about even money.

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Speaker 2: I projected that closer to minus one ten or minus

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Speaker 2: one fifteen, So fight ins inside the distance, Tyre to

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Speaker 2: win inside the distance, and then Tyra's money line live

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Speaker 2: after round one or round two, depending upon Park's early success. Billy,

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Speaker 2: you're going with a prop for this fight Tyre to

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Speaker 2: land over two and a half takedowns at minus one fifteen,

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Speaker 2: I would imagine you're probably interested in aliving was well.

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Speaker 2: Considering the short notice aspect here for Park and the

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Speaker 2: pre fight price not being too ridiculous, I kind of

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Speaker 2: expected something north of minus four hundred for Tyra here

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Speaker 2: pre fight. So what are your thoughts on this matchup?

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Speaker 2: How do you break it down? And then any other

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Speaker 2: betting thoughts aside from your over two and a half

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Speaker 2: takedowns stop.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, to your point about the full camp, Park was

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Speaker 1: in camp. He was slated to fight Steve Versag either

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Speaker 1: next week two weeks from now correct.

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Speaker 3: Two weeks yep, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: In a three round fight against a guy who's known

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Speaker 1: for his boxing, and now he gets just a drastically

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Speaker 1: different matchup against at zero Tyra. So not only is

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Speaker 1: Tyra with his unorthodox grappling a guy I'd want to

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Speaker 1: camp for. If anything, they were probably training less grappling

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Speaker 1: than they normally do because of the matchup with their

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Speaker 1: seg like we're more offensive grappling, I should say, because

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Speaker 1: if anyone was going to initiate takedowns, there would have

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Speaker 1: been Park, who's you know, three submissions in his five

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Speaker 1: UFC or road do UFC wins. He probably assumed he

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Speaker 1: was going to be doing offensive grappling. Now you throw

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Speaker 1: him in there with Tyra, it's a drastically different matchup.

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Speaker 1: I like the takedown prop because I think Park is

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Speaker 1: just good enough to survive the ground with Tyra where

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Speaker 1: he's not just gonna get melted the first time and

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Speaker 1: probably get back to his feet at least early on,

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Speaker 1: so he might get, you know, to take Tyra might

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Speaker 1: get two takedowns just in the first round because Park

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Speaker 1: keeps scrambling back up, Tyre takes him down again.

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Speaker 3: It's a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Tricky with the official scorekeeper in the UFC about how

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Speaker 1: far back up you have to get before it counts

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Speaker 1: as a takedown. Again, like every former wrestler I watch

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Speaker 1: fights with gets so mad that what they call a

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Speaker 1: matt return gets scored as a takedown when the I

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Speaker 1: doesn't fully break away and they come back. Usually they're

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Speaker 1: pretty generous though with those, which I think helps. And yeah,

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Speaker 1: I like Tyra live. If he does force Park to

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Speaker 1: you know, scramble back to his feet multiple times and

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Speaker 1: wear at him, I'm not sure that we ever get

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Speaker 1: a better price on Tyra Like. It wouldn't shock me

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Speaker 1: if he dominates the first round on the ground too,

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Speaker 1: So I'm not putting a lot of stock in that

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Speaker 1: being an option. But if hypothetically Park has a good

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Speaker 1: first round, yeah, absolutely I would take Tyer live.

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Speaker 3: I just don't think that that this.

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Speaker 1: Isn't you know, Marcus McGhee versus pyotr Yan where we

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Speaker 1: can be fairly confident who's going to win the first

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Speaker 1: round and it's gonna be obvious.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I got some good prices on peoter Yan Live after

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Speaker 2: round one last week, probably my best read of the car.

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Speaker 2: Last two cards have been a little bit rough for me,

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Speaker 2: but that Yon Live angle after round one, I think

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Speaker 2: I got.

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Speaker 1: In the last three and a half on McGee cash hit.

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Speaker 1: I threaded the needle on both of those. I was

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Speaker 1: pretty excited about that.

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Speaker 2: McGee super competitive in that fight. Yeah, we did a

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Speaker 2: good one, good job breaking that one down. Granted, I

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Speaker 2: feel like all three round peoter Yan fits kind of

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Speaker 2: play out like that now, So it is the go

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Speaker 2: to read and the go to bets, But happy to

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Speaker 2: see one kind of play out. Two expectations. Speaking of

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Speaker 2: last week's Frida the Night, let's move on to this

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Speaker 2: week's Friday the Night. Betune Mataias rombecchiki podcast favorite, and

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Speaker 2: Chris Duncan, who's another podcast favorite, a guy you bet

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Speaker 2: on and won quite a bit of money on Billy.

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Speaker 2: So want to get your read on this first? I

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Speaker 2: would assume you'll have a breakdown up for this fight

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Speaker 2: on Action network dot Com. Because you've been the Chris

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Speaker 2: Duncan whisper coming in here. At about plus one eighty

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Speaker 2: Rumbechki minus two twenty. This fight the odds to go

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Speaker 2: to decision about the same as the main event, roughly

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Speaker 2: plus one fifty GTD minus two hundred ns I TD.

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Speaker 2: Duncan the big man three, just taller, five into reach advantage,

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Speaker 2: but Rumbecchiki the much better athlete, quicker, probably more powerful

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Speaker 2: and better durability as well. Aileen goes to decision here, Billy,

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Speaker 2: Aileen Rombecchki decision. We both like this fight to go

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Speaker 2: a little bit longer because you're playing the same game

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Speaker 2: parlay with rom Becchki, and I believe over four and

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Speaker 2: a half minutes. Is that correct?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I mean this is kind of a choose your own

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Speaker 1: adventure on how risky and how long you want to

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Speaker 1: take it. I was looking for fight to start round two,

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Speaker 1: but they don't let you include that in the same

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Speaker 1: game parlay, So you know, whatever like variation of that

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Speaker 1: outside of the stylistic stuff, which you're right. I'll have

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Speaker 1: a breakdown up on Saturday morning. The big factor here

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Speaker 1: I think that people are missing is they are teammates.

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Speaker 1: At American top team, we see it often where teammates

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Speaker 1: are a little bit more cautious against each other than

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Speaker 1: they are. My theory there is that like, you know

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Speaker 1: you and I train together. I know you've got a

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Speaker 1: really good guillotine, so I'm worried about your guillotine, and

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Speaker 1: you know I've got a big right hand. And these

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Speaker 1: are specific examples to this fight for the record, or

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Speaker 1: big left hand in Robiski's case, so you're worried about

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Speaker 1: that and we both kind of are hesitant a little bit.

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Speaker 1: The other part of that is Rombchki has actually asked

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Speaker 1: for this fight on multiple occasions. He offered to step

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Speaker 1: in is a short notice replacement against Duncan, and the

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Speaker 1: interviews with Duncan about it, you can tell he's a

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Speaker 1: little litle bit like hurt about it, like he wasn't

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Speaker 1: happy for this thing. If you were very confident that

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Speaker 1: you're going to beat the guy you train with all

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Speaker 1: the time and he volunteers to fight you, you'd be like, yeah, great,

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Speaker 1: I'll take it right away. You're not going to be

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Speaker 1: feeling any type of way about it. It's kind of

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Speaker 1: obvious from what both guys have said about it that,

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Speaker 1: at least in my opinion, Robski probably gets the better

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Speaker 1: of the training sessions between the two of them, just

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Speaker 1: based on how they're approaching it. And with that said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's very durable. From a stylistic standpoint. Duncan's last two

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Speaker 1: wins are guillotines, and Rombeski is like a three time

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Speaker 1: European BJJ champion at black belt, He's not going to

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Speaker 1: get guillotine. He also has no knack. You describe Duncan

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Speaker 1: as the bigger man. He's taller and longer, but Rombeeshki

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Speaker 1: is more person just in like a five seven square

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Speaker 1: with absolutely zero neck. I would be shocked if any

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Speaker 1: human is able to guillotine him, much less Chris Duncan.

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Speaker 1: So that's another factor for Rombashki. I think he'll probably

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Speaker 1: initiate some takedowns. Duncan lets himself get taken down because

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Speaker 1: he likes those guillotines. Well, you're you gonna do squeeze

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Speaker 1: his head off? Like, that's just not an option here.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, Rumbeki in any version of over or just

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Speaker 1: ron Beski straight up, I'm fine with. But to get

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Speaker 1: a better price on that you want to play goes

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Speaker 1: to a decision, and ki decision that's kind of juicy

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Speaker 1: anywhere in there is how I'm approaching it.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad you brought up Duncan having Mbi having no

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Speaker 2: neck and unlikely to get guaranteined. I have another fighter

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Speaker 2: on this card who I think is in a fight

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Speaker 2: where he should get guillotined or should get choked out,

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Speaker 2: but he also has no neck. We'll get to that

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Speaker 2: one a little bit. You could decide amongst yourselves who

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Speaker 2: you think that fighter might be taking a look at

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Speaker 2: the card. Uh my either point on this Roumbki Duncan fight.

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Speaker 2: As you said, you can kind of choose your own

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Speaker 2: adventure with regard to how long you want to go.

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Speaker 2: What were the odds on the over four and a

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Speaker 2: half the run.

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Speaker 1: Billy, It's combine those as minus one oh five, So

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Speaker 1: like basically you've.

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Speaker 2: Been one okay, the so Rombeki in over one and

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Speaker 2: a half rounds is plus one thirty uh and Rumbeki

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Speaker 2: decision is plus three ten. So if you want to

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Speaker 2: ladder those up, I think that's acceptable, like point one

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Speaker 2: point one point one if you want to you know,

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Speaker 2: just choose one as opposed to the other based on

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Speaker 2: where you were able to get money down. I think

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Speaker 2: any of those options run Bechki and the fight to

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Speaker 2: go a little bit longer laddered up. I think I

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Speaker 2: made his decision prop a round two to one, and

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Speaker 2: you can get plus three ten on Roun Bechki decision.

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Speaker 2: And then, as I said, the over one and a

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Speaker 2: half plus one thirty and Billy's on over four and

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Speaker 2: a half minutes with rom Bechiki at minus one oh five,

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Speaker 2: let's go to our top underdogs for Saturday's card. I've

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Speaker 2: got two longer priced underdogs. Billy's got a couple about

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Speaker 2: plus one forty to plus one sixty. We're gonna save

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Speaker 2: one of those for the end. Let's start with my

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Speaker 2: bigger dogs and Nathan Fletcher at about plus three thirty

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Speaker 2: against Rindy and Knakamura. Knakamura clearly the better wrestler. He

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Speaker 2: did not pursue the wrestling in his last fight against

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Speaker 2: Moon Gafrov until the third round when he was already

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Speaker 2: down two all on the scorecards, had taken some damage

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Speaker 2: early in the fight. Big favorite completely bizarre approach to

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Speaker 2: that fight, and frankly, I don't know if Rindyan Nakamora

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Speaker 2: wants to fight. I know he likes to wrestle. I

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Speaker 2: know he is clearly a much better hammer than he

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Speaker 2: is a nail. But seeing the lack of fight IQ,

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Speaker 2: the lack of urgency with regard to the offensive wrestling

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Speaker 2: in his last matchup, I thought was extremely concerning. Nathan

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Speaker 2: Fletcher good jiu jitsu skills, did get taken down a

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Speaker 2: bunch of times in his last fight against Kyla, and

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Speaker 2: Laufern did fight to his split decision in that matchup,

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Speaker 2: actually outlanded lawfer In at distance, outlanded him overall one

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Speaker 2: fourteen to sixty five on strikes, also controlled about forty

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Speaker 2: percent of the grappling positions in that fight. So even

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Speaker 2: though he was taken down I think he was taken

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Speaker 2: down six times on twelve attempts, only got one takedown

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Speaker 2: of his own. The grappling control time was basically sixty

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Speaker 2: forty against him, so it was not completely washed in.

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Speaker 2: The grappling does have some good scrambling, some good jiu

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Speaker 2: jitsu t skills, and overall, Knockamura just not a guy

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Speaker 2: who's going to throw more than one punch at a time.

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Speaker 2: Or try to control you on the mat if he's

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Speaker 2: able to get the fight there, or if he desires

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Speaker 2: to get the fight there, and he is a decorated wrestler,

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Speaker 2: I just do not trust his fight IQ, or his tenacity,

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Speaker 2: or frankly, his heart. I do not think this guy

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Speaker 2: wants to fight in the moment he takes damage. I

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Speaker 2: think he's going to run away from it. That said,

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Speaker 2: Nathan Fletcher not necessarily the kind of opponent that is

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Speaker 2: going to put serious damage on you. So Knackamora may

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Speaker 2: not feel too much anxiety or pressure in a fight

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Speaker 2: like this, and maybe he just goes out and controls

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Speaker 2: this fight on the map. But after that last fight,

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Speaker 2: it's really tough to make Rindy Knockimoora such a big

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Speaker 2: favorite knowing the fight IQ issue could persist. So, Billy,

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Speaker 2: any thoughts on Nathan Fletcher against Rendy Namora. I know

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Speaker 2: you like Knackamoora overall as a prospect, but do you

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Speaker 2: kind of see where I'm coming from when I say

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Speaker 2: that I have less confidence in most fighters that he

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Speaker 2: doesn't actually want to be in a VIOLENTCE match.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you just have to like that.

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Speaker 1: The question at play here is whether Nakamur was trying

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Speaker 1: to work on his striking and build experience in a

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Speaker 1: fight they thought they would control easily, or he just

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Speaker 1: doesn't know what he's doing, right, Like, it's plausible that

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Speaker 1: that was an intentional decision by him and his team.

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Speaker 1: They're like, we should control this guy. You know, Nakamur's

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Speaker 1: got big power when he throws. Maybe we'll just play

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Speaker 1: with our striking, you know, get some reps in before

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Speaker 1: we fight tougher guys. And then they're trying to scramble

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Speaker 1: when the first two rounds go against him, and it's like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you know, what are we gonna do now? That's one option.

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Speaker 1: The other option is exactly what you said, where some

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Speaker 1: combination of fight IQ or desire is lacking in him.

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Speaker 1: The only thing I'll push back on and I don't

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Speaker 1: even think this actually works against your bat. It might

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Speaker 1: work for it is Fletcher. To say he was taken

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Speaker 1: down is almost a misnomer because he wants to be there.

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Speaker 1: So if you're gonna like he's not being taken down

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Speaker 1: against his will, he is choosing to go to the

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Speaker 1: match if you try to grab him. The one bat

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Speaker 1: I've been looking at and they still don't have the

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Speaker 1: props up. Is Nakamura over takedowns if it's reasonable, because

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Speaker 1: Fletcher's gonna let him take him down, Fletcher might have

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Speaker 1: success once they're down there. You know, Knackamara is not

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Speaker 1: a decorated submission guy or anything like that. That I

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Speaker 1: think is an interesting angle. But I still haven't had

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Speaker 1: those props up. So if you're doing you know, DFS,

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Speaker 1: prop sites or whatever, that's a good place to look.

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Speaker 1: I think something like that. But yeah, I'm kind of

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Speaker 1: with you. I think this fight will tell us a

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Speaker 1: lot though, Like if he comes out and just does

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Speaker 1: the A game and dominates, then you go, okay, you know,

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Speaker 1: parties back on with Knakamura, much like the next fight

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Speaker 1: for Bo Nickel. I've called Knakamura Japan's bow Nickel for

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Speaker 1: a long time. Both coming off their first career loss.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how either of them response.

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Speaker 2: Another fight, another wrestler versus jiu jitsu practitioner fight in

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Speaker 2: raphael A Stevom against Felipe Buonas. Stevom, undefeated thirteen to

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Speaker 2: zero in his career, loves to wrestle. He averages six

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Speaker 2: point four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes. Thirty five percent

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Speaker 2: accuracy on those show, So he shot forty one takedowns

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Speaker 2: in his past two fights. He has not controlled them though,

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Speaker 2: for that long of a period of time, because the

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Speaker 2: opponents are consistently getting back up and then he has

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Speaker 2: to shoot another one and try to get back on

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Speaker 2: top of his opponents. So outstruck fifty three to eleven

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Speaker 2: by Charles Johnson at distance, outstruck thirty one to nine

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Speaker 2: by Jesus Aguiler at distance. Hazus Aguiler has a sixty

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Speaker 2: two inch reach in that last fight. So I do

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Speaker 2: you think a stevom very vulnerable to getting outstruck on

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Speaker 2: the numbers against any opponent, very vulnerable depending on who

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Speaker 2: the judges are, to not getting deference for the takedown

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Speaker 2: and control time that he will have because he really

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Speaker 2: doesn't do a ton with it. Buona is very capable

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Speaker 2: of fighting from bottom, potentially throwing up submission attempts from

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Speaker 2: bottom and stealing the round from bottom, or if he's

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Speaker 2: able to keep this fight standing for any extended stretches,

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Speaker 2: I think he could steal minutes on the feed potentially.

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Speaker 2: I like Bunez on the money line a little bit.

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Speaker 2: I think I like the ghost to decision in this

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Speaker 2: fight as well at plus money Bonash just to survive

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Speaker 2: all fifteen minutes. I think a Stevam has the better cardio,

330
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Speaker 2: but Bone is capable of winning the submission from bottom

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Speaker 2: or just landing slightly more damage if he's able to

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Speaker 2: keep this fight standing. So another very similar stylistic matchup

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Speaker 2: as the Knakamura and Nathan Fletcher fight. Buonas maybe slightly

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Speaker 2: lesser cardio though than Fletcher overall, which is why I

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Speaker 2: would probably lean to the GTD as opposed to betting Buonas,

336
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Speaker 2: just because I don't think his chances of winning round

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Speaker 2: three or as high as Fletchers are against knackamor so Billy.

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Speaker 2: Any thoughts on undefeated Raphaelo Stevam going against phillybe Buonas

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Speaker 2: this weekend?

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Speaker 1: I like everything you said, but Buonass thirty five. You

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Speaker 1: know he's a fourteen and seven thirty five year old.

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Speaker 1: If we had seen what we'd seen from him, but

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Speaker 1: he was twenty six and we thought he was still

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Speaker 1: getting better, I would probably jump in on that bet.

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Speaker 1: The only thing I'll add from a betting standpoint is,

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Speaker 1: did you look at the plus three and a half

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Speaker 1: in that fight? Because if you're worried about his third round,

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Speaker 1: you think it goes to a decision. That kind of

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Speaker 1: leads me that way. I think it's probably plus money.

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Speaker 1: I didn't actually look at that one, but that would

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Speaker 1: I think, kind of combine everything you're saying in a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a safer package. I'll think it's a

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Speaker 1: plus one forty. So not not a great price, but

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Speaker 1: that's how I would play it if I read it

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Speaker 1: the same way you did, if that makes sense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know that that definitely makes sense trying to

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Speaker 2: see what the GTD odds are because I feel like

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Speaker 2: they're pretty similar, and at that point I would likely

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Speaker 2: just take the GTD in case.

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Speaker 1: A distance again, seventy cents better and you have a

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Speaker 1: little bit more, a little bit different when equity right

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Speaker 1: because stoppage for the underdog, we'll get you there too.

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Speaker 3: So I don't know, I can see a lot of ways, but.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Bunas may have more finishing upside overall, so

365
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Speaker 2: that that could be an interesting way to go about

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Speaker 2: betting this fight for sure. Yeah, I think I made

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Speaker 2: the GTD about minus one fifty, so I would be

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Speaker 2: okay laying juice and then also playing Bunas on the

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Speaker 2: money line, potentially considering the finishing upside being on his

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Speaker 2: happ But yeah, if I'm staking one of those bets

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Speaker 2: bigger than the other, it is likely the GTV prop

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Speaker 2: I believe.

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Speaker 3: Before we get on chick on.

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Speaker 1: That too, we should mention Bunez was originally supposed to

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Speaker 1: fight Andre Lima. It's Estevan that's coming in on short

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Speaker 1: notice or not that short of notice. I think they

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Speaker 1: made it like two weeks ago or something. It's not horrible,

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Speaker 1: but somewhat of a unique situation where we see a

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Speaker 1: heavy favorite for the guy who came in is the replacement.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that impacts anyone's thoughts on it

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Speaker 1: at all. I think, if anything, that would push me

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Speaker 1: more towards the plus three and a half rather than

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Speaker 1: goes to a decision because maybe the replacement guy is

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Speaker 1: someone who guesses out late and gets that late finished.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, fair points being made all around. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: I trust the Stevom's cardio more just being the younger man,

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Speaker 2: regardless of the short notice aspect, the fact that he's

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Speaker 2: a wrestler. I tend to trust the cardio for wrestlers

390
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Speaker 2: in general. But no, that's that's worthy of bringing up.

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Speaker 2: I think the GT out of them. The more I

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Speaker 2: think about it, I think the GTD may be the move.

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Speaker 3: In that fight.

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Speaker 2: One more fight that we've got from a prop and

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Speaker 2: an underdog perspective. But first, gonna get a quick message

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Speaker 2: from the Action Network podcast and football season the heer folks,

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00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 2: and we've got some huge improvements and updates coming on

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Speaker 2: the award winning Action NETWORKAP which we're very excited to

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Speaker 2: discuss in the week's ahead. But to get the most

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Speaker 2: of the app, you'll still need to be an Action

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Speaker 2: Pro subscriber, and it's only with Action Pro you'll get

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00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 2: real time pick alerts from me the entire Action Network

403
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 2: team of experts. Plus it's going to access pro projections

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00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,720
Speaker 2: powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team including

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00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 2: Billy word So, plus a ton of other benefits. And

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00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 2: right now, Action Podcast listeners can save twenty dollars off

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Speaker 2: Use Promo Code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off the

411
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Speaker 2: annual price of Action pro And let's go to that

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Speaker 2: third fight that we like from an underdog and a

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Speaker 2: proper perspective as we head into our top prop section,

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Speaker 2: Nick Klein going against Andreiev in the Middleway Division this weekend.

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Speaker 2: This fight is plus one forty to go to a decision,

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Speaker 2: roughly the same price as Klein's money line. Those are

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Speaker 2: the two plus money bets that Billy and I like.

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Speaker 2: I like the GTD. Billy likes Client on the money line.

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Speaker 2: I like Clein two. He was just a little bit

420
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Speaker 2: too popular of an underdog pick this week for me,

421
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Speaker 2: and as a result, the model is trying to get

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Speaker 2: me to bet pool I have, which I do not

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Speaker 2: want to do because I do think Klein is the

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Speaker 2: more betible side of the fight based upon my read,

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna be taking the GTD instead at about

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Speaker 2: plus one forty, I make it. I think minus one ten.

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Speaker 2: I like that down to about plus one ten. But Billy,

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Speaker 2: give me your breakdown on why you like Cliin a

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Speaker 2: dog money over pool a f Yeah.

430
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 1: First of all, this is the only fight on the

431
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 1: card where the favorite is inside of like minus one ninety,

432
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 1: So you know if you're looking like I think that's

433
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,280
Speaker 1: probably why it's popular, as a lot of people just

434
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 1: want to bet plus money but don't want to take

435
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 1: a long shot on someone, which scares me a little

436
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 1: bit too, because then maybe the books have shaded it.

437
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 3: Whatever.

438
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 1: Both guys own one in the UFC twenty twenty four

439
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:19,880
Speaker 1: Contender Series graduates. I wasn't super impressed by Pulv either

440
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 1: coming in or on the Contender Series. They incline this

441
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 1: kind of applies to too. They've both just crushed a

442
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 1: ton of cans before they got to the Contender Series.

443
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 1: And then Klein though, came into the Contender Series and

444
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 1: needed thirty seven seconds to submit a Brazilian dude who

445
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 1: I was very worried was going to submit. Client Klin's

446
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 1: like a high level was a high level high school

447
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 1: state wrestler. I thought he was going to wrestle himself

448
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 1: into trouble. Instead, he absolutely dominated on the ground. Second fight,

449
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 1: they throw him to manser at buelm Malik gets a

450
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 1: takedown and actually controls a duelm Malik in the first round,

451
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 1: which is really why I'm leaning towards him here. Kind

452
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 1: of got big brother by Mansur in the second round

453
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 1: that happens. He's nowhere near the level of athlete that

454
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: Abuel Malik is, but neither Pulie.

455
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:01,399
Speaker 2: They have nobody has.

456
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:07,439
Speaker 1: Well, right, But yeah, exactly, Pole have six' four seventy

457
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 1: eight inch each super long and skinny middleweight fighting in

458
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 1: a small cage against a guy with a wrestling background

459
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 1: who Wrestled Mansu abdoolmaleague does not seem like a good

460
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 1: combination for. Him he was actually the one taken down

461
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 1: on The contender series and then lost a striking based

462
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: decision To Christian Leroy. DUNCAN i don't know What pool

463
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 1: is good, At, like he's not bad at anything, necessarily

464
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 1: but he just doesn't have like an a game That

465
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 1: i'm super confident in Where klein you know what that,

466
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: is you know what that path, Is and with this

467
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 1: being in the small apex, CAGE i think it. WORKS

468
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: i also think it correlates pretty heavily with your goes

469
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 1: to a, decision because if he's just wrestling him to

470
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 1: death from the, top likelier that we see a judge's

471
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: decision then.

472
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 2: Not.

473
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 1: SO i think both those bets have at least some.

474
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 1: Correlation you could split them half unit on each you

475
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: just need one to make a, profit and then If

476
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 1: klein wins a, decision you get a big.

477
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 2: Profit let's talk about a fight that we have basically

478
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 2: census read on that it will end inside the, distance

479
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 2: potentially to go under two and a half, rounds AND

480
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 2: i Like Eliza zeleski Do santos to Finish Neil magni this.

481
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 2: Weekend magni, fourteless, taller seven inch reach, advantage but the

482
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 2: durability seems to be completely, gone the athleticism certainly. DECLINING

483
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 2: i Think magni could be a live bat after round,

484
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 2: one just Because leski tends to be a fast, starter

485
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,199
Speaker 2: tends to over exert himself trying to finish opponents when

486
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 2: he has them, hurt and as a result can gas himself.

487
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 2: Out and he does come from more of a Capal ara,

488
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 2: Base so potential That magni could just have the better

489
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 2: cardio out Wrestles zeleski over the final two and a half,

490
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 2: rounds at least hold him up against the, fence gets

491
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 2: some control. TIME i think is all, viable BUT i

492
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 2: Like celeski to win inside the. Distance you're getting about

493
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 2: plus one eighty. FIVE i projected that closer to plus one,

494
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 2: sixty AND i like his ko prop at plus three point.

495
00:23:55,280 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: FIFTY i projected that closer to plus one. Ninety, billy

496
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 2: do you agree That zeleski is the likelier finisher in this?

497
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 2: Fight are you interested at all in taking his? Props

498
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 2: and then if, not or if, so how do you

499
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 2: Think magnie is able to finish this? One do you

500
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 2: expect that to come later?

501
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 1: On, Yeah i'm not entirely. Sure i've got the under

502
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: two and a. Half also at plus one, forty it could,

503
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: play doesn't go to the decision at a similar, prices you,

504
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,959
Speaker 1: know trade off. There the thing how you opened your

505
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,199
Speaker 1: read On MAGNE i think also applies To. Zeleski like

506
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 1: both guys are right around thirty, eight both coming off knockout,

507
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 1: losses both fairly questionable durability at this, point and the

508
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 1: power is the last thing to.

509
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 3: Go we've seen knockouts.

510
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 1: For each of these guys in recent fights as, well

511
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 1: so they're Both they both kind of transitioned into being

512
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 1: glass cannon's or killer be killed, fighters however you want

513
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: to call. THEM i don't think that's how we would

514
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 1: have described either of them in their. Prime so that's

515
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 1: kind of what they're turning into at this. Point from

516
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: a money line, Standpoint i'm actually leaning slightly Towards. Magni

517
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 1: the REASON i ever that Is zeleski's copple wear. Background

518
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 1: let me rephrase That celeski has struggled against, taller longer.

519
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: Fighters just got knocked out By Randy. Brown there's another

520
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: one on there in Recent, oh she just got knocked

521
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,640
Speaker 1: out By, cheety And Joe kuwani also lost To Randy.

522
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 1: Brown when you're doing, spinning, hooking twisting kicks and stuff like,

523
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: that All magnie has to do is stay outside of that,

524
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 1: range And magne with his eighty inch, reach can still

525
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 1: punch you past your kick. Range if anyone remembers the

526
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: Movie Never Back. Down that MADE mma very popular In

527
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 1: america in like two thousand and, eight there's a scene

528
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 1: that gets circulated a lot of a cop wear guy

529
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: doing like a bunch of spins and, flips and when he's,

530
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 1: done the guy just drills him with a big right.

531
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 1: Hand like that's obviously a little bit, silly BUT i

532
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: could kind of See magnie doing that, Right Like zeleski

533
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: misses on a spin or something stupid when you have

534
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: a seven or eight inch reach. Advantage you can stay

535
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 1: outside of that range and land a punch that's obviously

536
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: not like an entirely serious read to, quote never back

537
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 1: down a twenty year old LIKE b movie About, Mma

538
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 1: And i'm not Betting neil back. ME i don't think

539
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 1: you know just to, say but that's WHY i would

540
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: lean Towards maggie and playing him a lot in, dfs

541
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: because we need to cheot. GUYS i just think somebody

542
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 1: gets a knock out. Here magni turns thirty Eight Sunday

543
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,440
Speaker 1: morning With lascios thirty. Eight both have chin, issues both

544
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 1: can still. Crack feels like a pretty obvious read to.

545
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 2: ME i can't believe it took us three years into this.

546
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 2: Podcast bring Up Never never backed. Down on the, Show

547
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: Academy award Winner jimman Hanshu amber heard it's it's actually

548
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:32,360
Speaker 2: like a better movie than it has any right. BEING i, mean,

549
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 2: hey six point five On, IMDb not that bad twenty

550
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 2: Percent Rotten. Tomatoes but, yeah it's actually if you've never seen,

551
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 2: it if you like the sport OF, mma it's it's

552
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 2: a watchful. Movie watch it with your. Kids it's a

553
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 2: good WATCH mma for Like karate kid mma right with

554
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 2: a dude From africa instead of a dude From. Asia, basically,

555
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 2: yeah that's what they went.

556
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 1: For fair point that right around we started training was

557
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: when never, Back LIKE i had been training for a

558
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 1: little bit before it, Started so we just got such

559
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 1: an influx of like teenagers when that movie came, out

560
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 1: which is actually kind of nice for the.

561
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 2: Jam, No Evan peter is probably the biggest star in that,

562
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 2: movie just playing like the little friend on the. Side

563
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 2: if you Watch American Harror, story you've seen a lot

564
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 2: Of Evan. Peters move on, though to another fight that

565
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,440
Speaker 2: we like from a proper. Perspective Els brenner Against Esteban

566
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 2: Ribovich AILEEN gtd. HERE i Think riviovich can certainly Finish

567
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 2: brenner in round tier round. Three he comes forward very,

568
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 2: Aggressively brenner be willing to come forward back at, him

569
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 2: and they're probably just going to meet in the middle

570
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,679
Speaker 2: and swing this thing. Out so this is going to

571
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 2: be a sweaty goes to decision if it does get,

572
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 2: there BECAUSE i do expect a high pace fight Where

573
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 2: brenner probably gets knocked down at some. Point But brenner

574
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 2: has been fighting huge dudes in the lightweight. Division fucker

575
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 2: Ram who else did he fight on short? Notice? Yeah

576
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 2: he Fought mire to beak Oral. By Like brenner is

577
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 2: used to going up against bigger, opponents dudes with big,

578
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 2: power dudes who are going to come at. Him he

579
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: actually has a three inch reach Advantag. Cheer he's the

580
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 2: same height As, ribovich SO i don't think he's necessarily

581
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 2: going to be outclassed or out physical in terms of.

582
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 2: SIZE i do Think ribevich just throws more and he

583
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 2: hits the body a, ton and that could be where

584
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 2: he Folds brenner down the stretch of this. Fight But

585
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 2: model Likes brenner on the money line and projected him

586
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 2: closer to plus one. Seventy if you are betting one

587
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 2: side of this, FIGHT i do think it could be a,

588
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 2: potential high, variance high volume striking fight where the judges

589
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 2: are just weighing one side of the volume against the.

590
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 2: Other and AS i, Said brenner does have a slight reach.

591
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 2: Advantage BUT i also like this fight to go to a.

592
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 2: DECISION i projected that at minus one. Twelve i'm would

593
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 2: probably take that at any plus money. NUMBER i think

594
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: it's plus one forty maybe plus one, twenty BUT i

595
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 2: Like brenner And riviovich to go all. FIFTEEN a very sweaty,

596
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: fifteen BUT i like it to go all, fifteen AND

597
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: i would probably lean To riviovich to win by decision

598
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 2: to spight saying that there is money line value On

599
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 2: brenner regardless of my model projected, edge kind of Lean

600
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 2: ribovich to win this fight by decision or to win

601
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 2: in round. Three, billy any thoughts for you On Brennard.

602
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 2: Rivivich this could be potential fight of the night material

603
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 2: based upon the pace that these guys like to keep

604
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 2: see have any betting thoughts on this?

605
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 3: One, YEAH a couple.

606
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 1: Thoughts If brenner chooses to, grapple which he occasionally does

607
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 1: average about takedown for a fifteen, MINUTE i think he

608
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: could be in a real good. Spot rivivich got taken

609
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: down eleven times By Lord, radzibov three times By Kamala,

610
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: kirk once By Nazareth.

611
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 3: Hekparus these are not guys.

612
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 1: That typically wrestle other Than, lloyd but they were able

613
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 1: to Against riviovich And brenner sometimes. Wrestles he got three

614
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 1: takedowns in oral by which is super. Impressive if you've

615
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: seen Oral by fight like that is hard to. DO

616
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: i think that's a pretty clear path that he might

617
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 1: not take because he likes getting performance bonuses more than

618
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:52,239
Speaker 1: he likes cashing his win. Money with that, said this

619
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: fight was originally booked In november of twenty twenty. Three

620
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 1: brenner was a minus one fifty five favorite going into that.

621
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: Fight then he lost to And Joel, alvarez and now

622
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 1: he's a plus two ten. Underdog that doesn't add up

623
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: to me Because ribovich would almost certainly lose to Oral

624
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 1: by and Jol alvarez and probably wouldn't make it into

625
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: the third round Against alvarez or to a decision against

626
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: Orl by As brenner. Did SO i don't think we

627
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 1: should adjust our priors On brenner based on losing to

628
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: two really tough, dudes especially considering That ribovich has lost

629
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: To Nazarete parest in that same.

630
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 3: Timeframe SO i.

631
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: Know that's a little bit of a long winded way

632
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 1: to get to, it BUT i do Think brenner should

633
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 1: be at least a closer underdog, here And i'm probably

634
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: gonna put like half a unit on his money line

635
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 1: and this, One.

636
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: Wow that's that's a great shot by. YOU i didn't

637
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 2: realize that he was the favorite when they were booked.

638
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,719
Speaker 2: Previously how Long how long ago was that fight supposed

639
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 2: to take?

640
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: Place about a year and a Half november of twenty twenty,

641
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 1: three or as closer to two years now It's.

642
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 2: August but, yeah it's not like there's any age concerns

643
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 2: or anything on The brenner. Side was knocked. OUT i

644
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 2: guess that's really the only thing that you could, say

645
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: like the durability maybe a little bit. Lessened but, yeah

646
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 2: that's that's a very good point we tended to discussed

647
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 2: on this, Show like the open opening lines tend to

648
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 2: be a little bit more accurate IN, MMA i feel

649
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 2: like than closing lines at. Times so seeing a pass

650
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 2: line between these two Where brenner was listed as the,

651
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 2: FAVORITE i think is very telling that he's likely the

652
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: value side of this. Fight let's move on to a

653
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 2: couple more props that you. LIKE a big plus money

654
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: Against peer and When Peer rodriguez going up Against Katln.

655
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: SEOS i believe this is the first fight on the

656
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 2: card woman's shrowweight. Division this fight is minus three hundred

657
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 2: to go to a. Decision typically beside with the underdog

658
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: in fights that are hevidly juiced to go to a.

659
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 2: DECISION i do Lean rodriguez by decision here at minus one.

660
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 2: TEN i think you're projected that closer to minus one.

661
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 2: Fifteen But, billy you like this fight to go all

662
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes because you think it could be a draw

663
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,959
Speaker 2: at fifty to, one or you like somebody to get

664
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 2: a point taken away at twenty to. One rodriguez tends

665
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 2: to be a little bit of a, cheater SO i

666
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 2: would imagine of the, two you think the point deduction

667
00:31:58,320 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 2: is going to come from her, side?

668
00:31:59,280 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 3: Right?

669
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: Absolutely? YEAH i, mean who can forget the fight Against

670
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: area In. Carnilosi she Dropped, carnilosi followed her down to the,

671
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 1: ground headbutted her once got warned by the. Rep it

672
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,479
Speaker 1: looked like she like looked at the ref and then

673
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: just blatantly headbutted her. Again it was the most blatant

674
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 1: Thing i've ever seen in A ufc. Fight that is

675
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 1: not the only Reason i'm betting on a point. DEDUCTION i,

676
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: mean the biggest reason is because it's my favorite bet

677
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 1: THAT i never win BECAUSE ufc refs don't do their.

678
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: Job but if you look at the interviews after, that

679
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 1: she was not even at all LIKE i made a.

680
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 1: Mistake she was calling Out carnelosi for being a quitter

681
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: and calling her all kinds of, names like you just

682
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: cleanly headbutted her twice with a warning in. Between it wasn't,

683
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 1: like it wasn't like you didn't.

684
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 3: KNOW i, mean just.

685
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 1: Ridiculous anyone who is that blatantly willing to cheat you

686
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: got a bet on the point deduction in their fight

687
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: for a couple bucks for something. Fun it's a tremendous

688
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 1: sweat like you've never lived until you've watched THE ufc,

689
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 1: fight just hoping somebody will.

690
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 3: Cheat it's the.

691
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 1: Best and then that's where the draw comes, in, obviously

692
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 1: because it's very hard to get a three round draw

693
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 1: in THE ufc without a point being deduction. Deducted it's

694
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: basically a parlay Of Pierre rodriguez to win two rounds

695
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: and get a point deducted and the fight to go

696
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: to a, decision which is exceedingly. Unlikely but it's a

697
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: fifty with a one. Bet don't come at me when

698
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: it doesn't. Hit it's not going to it's fifty to,

699
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: one but a few bucks on either of THOSE i

700
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: think are. Fun, also A susa point deduction wouldn't shock,

701
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 1: me just because she's kind of effectively. Wild usually those

702
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: things aren't actually penalized IN, mma which is the. Problem

703
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: LIKE i should, say A susa rule infraction wouldn't shock.

704
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: Me if they actually took a, Point i'd be a little.

705
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 1: Surprised but there we, are so have some fun with.

706
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 1: It it's a low level. Fight you don't really have

707
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: any other reason to care other than rooting for somebody to,

708
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 1: cheat which is again.

709
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 2: Fun let's turn our attention to our best bets. Section

710
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 2: billy has an underdog play that we saved here because

711
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 2: he's just on the opposite side of my prop in

712
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 2: the best back, section which Is Carol hosa to win

713
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 2: by decision at about minus one. TWENTY i projected this

714
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 2: closer to minus one thirty. Five, now these two women

715
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 2: are similarly sized women's bandam weight fight same, SIZE i

716
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 2: believe a very similar reach as. Well my main takeaway

717
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 2: Here hooso when she has a takedown threat against, her

718
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,399
Speaker 2: she can be. Beaten when she is the takedown. Threat

719
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:23,839
Speaker 2: when she's the main takedown fight threat in the, fight

720
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 2: she can control her opponents in terms of the pace

721
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: and the output of the. Fight she's five and one

722
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: when she lands a takedown of THE ufc the only.

723
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 2: Loss she absorbed four takedowns Against sarah, McMahon only got

724
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 2: one of her. Own she's one in three when she

725
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,319
Speaker 2: gets a, takedown or, sorry she's one in three when

726
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 2: she gets taken. Down that was the McMahon. Fight she's

727
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 2: four and five and one when she lands a takedown

728
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,280
Speaker 2: of her. Own she took Down Joscelyn edwards four. Times

729
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 2: edwards took her down. Once that was the one fight

730
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 2: that she won while getting taken. Down so for to

731
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 2: one opposite on either end of the win and the

732
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 2: losses when there are takedowns. Involved but she also just

733
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,240
Speaker 2: offers MORE vu volume on the feet across a fifteen

734
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 2: minute fight as compared To, CORNALL i Think cornall hits.

735
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 2: HARDER i Think cornall may have more, puncheons punch, volume

736
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 2: head strike volume in, general Because hosta does like to

737
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 2: land a lot of, kicks so the volume discrepancy in

738
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 2: the stats could get skewed a little. Bit but at,

739
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 2: Range hosts of landing eight point six strikes per minute

740
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 2: on her, Opponents cornole landing five point eight and in

741
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 2: terms of strikes, absorbed hosts of landing and absorbing or

742
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 2: outlanding her opponents by a full strike and a half per,

743
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,800
Speaker 2: Minute cornole closer to a half a. Strike so across

744
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 2: a fifteen minute kickboxing, MATCH i think host of lands

745
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 2: more volume in addition to having the takedown and control

746
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 2: upside as. WELL i should mention With. Cornoll she won

747
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 2: her last fight Against Haley. Cohen we were on. Her Against,

748
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 2: cohen she came from behind after getting controlled there for

749
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 2: four minutes and twenty four seconds in round. One she

750
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 2: came from behind and get a. Submission in round, two

751
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 2: she got controlled for five minutes By Melissa. Owens she

752
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 2: got controlled for eight and a half minutes in her

753
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 2: split decision win Against Jocelyn. Edwards SO i Think cornall

754
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 2: has shown consistently in her fights that, opponents when they

755
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 2: were able to take her, down they were able to

756
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 2: hold her down for a full. Round hosa the same thing,

757
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 2: basically but she's going to be the one threatening offensive

758
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 2: takedowns in this.

759
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 3: Fight SO i.

760
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 2: Do Like, hosa BUT i prefer her by. Decision she

761
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 2: does not have a ton of finishing tenacity in her

762
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 2: personality or in her fighting style very. Clearly but she

763
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 2: does fight at a high, pace and she does mix things,

764
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 2: up AND i would much rather lay minus one twenty

765
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 2: on her decision prop than laying two to one on

766
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,280
Speaker 2: her money. LINE i do project some value on her money,

767
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 2: line BUT i Prefer hosa by. Decision billy is on

768
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 2: the other side of the. Fight he Likes cornoll on

769
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,359
Speaker 2: the money line at plus one. Sixty BUT i think

770
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 2: you said to me before the, Pod, billy you may

771
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 2: even Prefer cornoll in the finish only market at a

772
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 2: juice here. Number so go ahead and give me your

773
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:00,320
Speaker 2: breakdown of this FIGHT i might have.

774
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 1: Missed, YEAH i mean Nor cornol has MORE ufc finishes

775
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five Than Carol josa has in her

776
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: like thirteen FIGHT ufc, career because she's never finished. Anyone

777
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 1: hose of two of her last three wins were also

778
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: like non unanimous. Decisions she has a majority and a

779
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 1: split of two of those. Three she just fights people.

780
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,280
Speaker 1: Close whether she's grappling or, striking she fights people. Close

781
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 1: that's reason number one to be on the. Underdog the

782
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 1: other is That cornole hits really hard and she's super.

783
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 1: Athletic for a woman's bantam weight, strong very good in the.

784
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 1: Clinch you, know she was a big silver medalist in

785
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 1: like The World Muay Thai games right before she transitioned TO.

786
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 3: MMA i like your.

787
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 1: PICK i think if you're Betting, hose it almost has

788
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 1: to be by decision because her she only has one

789
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 1: path that, WINNING i, think which is just to get

790
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: some takedowns and be there Where, cornol in, theory could

791
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 1: win some rounds with the better damage if it does

792
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: stay on the. Feet i'm not sure that she. Does you,

793
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 1: know volume verse damage is always a tricky game to.

794
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 1: Play but when she's plus, Money i'm okay taking that

795
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: rich and then if this fight ends inside the, distance

796
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 1: it's almost Assuredly cornol despite her lack of you, know grappling,

797
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 1: chops she looks for submissions more Than hosa does really

798
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 1: on the, ground at least from what we've seen so.

799
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: Far so the finish only money line she was minus.

800
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 1: Money you, know she's a slight, favorite and that didn't

801
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: really want to lay that it'd be it makes total

802
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 1: sense if you wanted to tail both of, us you

803
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 1: go post a Decision cornell finish, only you, know give

804
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 1: yourself an OUT i Like cornel at plus one sixty

805
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: plus one seventy. RANGE i just think she'll be able

806
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 1: to keep this on the feet long. Enough BUT i

807
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 1: see both sides of.

808
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 2: It let's get to our final bet on the, Card

809
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 2: Hudolpha vira Against Treychon Gore, gore the second of the

810
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 2: two fighters that was referring to who have no. Neck

811
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: so how billy Is rudolfhavira gonna Submit trey Schon gour this?

812
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 2: Weekend Considering trey Schon gore's chin connects directly to his.

813
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 1: Shoulders, well the interesting thing about that is That Judolpho

814
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 1: vieira is third. Method if you look through his career

815
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: even before THE, ufc he loves the arm triangle choke

816
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 1: from mount or side. Control that is actually easier to

817
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: hit hit on big thick shoulder, guys because you're forcing

818
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 1: someone's own shoulder into their. Neck that is hard to

819
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 1: hit on the skinny people with little arms that you

820
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 1: can't drive that.

821
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:18,760
Speaker 3: Into SO i have no concerns.

822
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 1: There the CONCERN i have is That Trey shawn gore

823
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: both of his last two wins for, guillotines and he's

824
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 1: gonna try to guillotine dude who's like a bazillion time

825
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 1: jiu jitsu world, champion and that's just not gonna, work, Right,

826
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 1: like you can't do that against it Alfo. VERA i

827
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 1: Think gore looks for a guillotine in the clinch as

828
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 1: he always, does gets taken, down and Then viira just

829
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: cooks him on the, ground you, know methodically past the,

830
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 1: guard get the mount soften them. Up land that had

831
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 1: armed triangle. Choke WHAT i also really like about that

832
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 1: arm triangle show because you do not have to give

833
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 1: up position to go for. It it's not an armbar

834
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 1: where you're rolling. Off it's not even a rear naked

835
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: where you have to get the guy to turn where

836
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 1: you can't damage. Him viera sit there And mountain just

837
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 1: wear on you the whole time until you give him

838
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 1: that oppor. Oportunity splitting my exposure. HERE i Got vieira

839
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 1: on the money. Line he's two eighteen. Now he was

840
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: minus two to five in the luck, ratings doing about

841
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 1: a unit on that to win half a unit and

842
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 1: then another half a unit on him inside the distance

843
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: of even. MONEY i think he's finished all of HIS ufc.

844
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 1: Wins there might be like one that he won by

845
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 1: decision in, there but he's a finisher broadly. Speaking No

846
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 1: all five by, submission so you, know if he's gonna,

847
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 1: win it's going to be a finish most.

848
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 3: Likely that's Why i'm playing it that.

849
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: Way BUT i want some, coverage AND i just took

850
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 1: the beat earlier at the better, price so that was

851
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:33,959
Speaker 1: WHY i wanted to stick with that one a little.

852
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 2: Bit even my models showed value On gore And gore

853
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 2: BY ko this. Weekend i'm not betting it number. ONE

854
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 2: i prefer The viera's side of the, fight but Also

855
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 2: gore has not been extended very much in HIS ufc,

856
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,959
Speaker 2: creeer AND i think there's a chance That viira has better,

857
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 2: cardio which seems crazy for a jiu jitsu, guy BUT

858
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 2: i think he. May he may be the better striker

859
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 2: a extended fight as. Well so, YEAH i Think viera

860
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: a good pick for it by you for best bet this.

861
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 2: Weekend the market seems to be very heavily on. HIM

862
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,760
Speaker 2: i Just i've never Thought tray shrunk or WAS ufc.

863
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,240
Speaker 2: LEVEL i think he can is just big and, strong

864
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 2: and he looks he looks like a good. Athlete he hits.

865
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 2: HARD i think there's like you could see the potential,

866
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 2: Right he's like he's a mold of clash and you're,

867
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 2: like what COULD i turn this? Into but he just

868
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 2: he doesn't throw. Enough he stares at his opponents a. Lot,

869
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 2: yeah and really the defensive grappling has not largely been tested.

870
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 2: Either SO i think this could be a very quick

871
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 2: submission win For Vieia viera around one sub would interest

872
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 2: me here blindly as. WELL i think this could be

873
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 2: over in a wrap or you, know under half a

874
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,319
Speaker 2: round For. Vieera could be a very quick finish For

875
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,839
Speaker 2: rudolph Of. Viera this, Weekend i'll be using THE. DFS

876
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 2: i would imagine you'll be loading up On VIERA dfs as.

877
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 3: Well BILLY i wrote him up in MY dfs breakdown

878
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 3: On Fantasy.

879
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: Labs was like my stud pick for the week for those,

880
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 1: reasons just the right combination of safety and, upside where

881
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 1: a lot of fighters have one or the, other Like

882
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 1: nakamura could have a massive upside you pointed, out not extremely.

883
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 1: Safe VIERA i think is one of the only favorites

884
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,879
Speaker 1: WHERE i feel both confident that he controls it fairly

885
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: easily and brings out side so hard to pass up on.

886
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,800
Speaker 2: That, Yeah looking at other Potential round one, FINISHES i

887
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 2: guess it's A, leski Maybe Ron, Bekir, Ribovich. NAKAMURA i

888
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 2: guess a ton of takedowns and control, upside stebamb a

889
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 2: ton of takedown and control. Upside DID i miss any

890
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 2: of like your big studs this?

891
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:34,719
Speaker 3: Week Austin, bashie who we haven't talked. About, yeah, yeah the.

892
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 2: Two fights we didn't get, to The bashie And yannis

893
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 2: fight and The Kevin Vallejos Danny silva. Fight there were

894
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 2: no props out for The Bashie yanna's fight as of last.

895
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 2: NIGHT i believe still not out as of, today And

896
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 2: bashie is a minus seven order. Favorite j loses u

897
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 2: c a, debut but considered a very high level of.

898
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:52,439
Speaker 2: PROSPECT i don't have any betting thoughts on that. Fight

899
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 2: i'm not sure if you. Do you? Did those seem

900
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 2: to have some thoughts on the Valay host And silva.

901
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 2: FIGHT i like that fight OR i leave to that

902
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 2: fight to end inside the. Distance based upon my projections

903
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 2: in the, MATH i feel like Though silva's going to

904
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 2: be competitive and that one's gonna go all fifteen minutes

905
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 2: and end up being a closer decision than people to

906
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 2: expect based upon the money line. Odds so how do

907
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 2: you see that one playing out Between Valley hoos And?

908
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,359
Speaker 2: Silva do you think he goes off? FIFTEEN i know

909
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 2: you lean To, silva but do you think he can

910
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 2: finish Vallet housse or he's likelier to win a?

911
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 1: DECISION i Think silva is likelier to win a, Decision

912
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 1: Ballet host is likelier to get it. Finished we Know

913
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 1: Valley host is an, elite, awesome fun to watch. Boxer

914
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 1: haven't really seen anyone try to wrestle against him other

915
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: Than John, silva who landed a. Takedown silva gets a

916
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 1: lot of, takedowns likes to. Grapple none of this is

917
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 1: me saying THAT i Know Valley host can't. Wrestle we

918
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:47,479
Speaker 1: just don't know if he can. Wrestle so when you're getting,

919
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 1: plus you know three to one odds are.

920
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 3: Better I'm.

921
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:52,919
Speaker 1: SILVA i think it's worth a slight. Sprinkle not sure

922
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 1: That i'll be betting, it but, YEAH i could see

923
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 1: A silva grappling heavy. Decision he gets pieced up a

924
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,880
Speaker 1: little bit on the, feet gets the. Takedown judges have

925
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:02,720
Speaker 1: to decide which of those matter more rinse and. Repeat

926
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 1: If leos, wins he probably lands forty six punches in

927
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 1: the first thirty seconds and just startes him or at

928
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 1: other points in the. Fight so interesting. One and then

929
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 1: as for The Bashi, yannis is it Pronounce Yani? YANNI

930
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 1: i have no idea how to say this other guy's.

931
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:21,239
Speaker 1: Name bringing in a guy who's nine to three for

932
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 1: HIS ufc. Debut yannis was preparing for a bantam white.

933
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: Fight this is at. Featherweight bashi did lose in his

934
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: FIRST ufc, fight but that was To Christian, rodriguez who

935
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 1: is legally obligated to defeat every undefeated prospect they give

936
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 1: him and continues to do. SO i Think bashi rolls.

937
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,359
Speaker 1: Here if we Get bashi by sub like close to even,

938
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 1: Money i'd probably play that he's ONE nogi world's at brown,

939
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 1: belt state champion wrestler in high, school.

940
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 3: All that good.

941
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,799
Speaker 1: Stuff so that's HOW i would play. It BUT i

942
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,320
Speaker 1: just have no idea what the prices are going to be.

943
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 2: There that'll do it for A ufc betting preview for this.

944
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 2: Week you could find MORE ufc betting content for Both

945
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:59,879
Speaker 2: billy and myself on actionework dot com and if you'd

946
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:01,400
Speaker 2: like to instantly tell some of the bets that we

947
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 2: discussed on today's, show look for the quick slip links

948
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 2: both in the podcast and the video, description or Visit

949
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 2: actionnework dot com slash bet. Now don't forget to download the,

950
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 2: free award Winning Action network app and sign up For

951
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:16,839
Speaker 2: Action pro for immediate access to expert picks and. Analysis

952
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 2: that's the block with all of your bets this, Weekend

953
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:21,839
Speaker 2: enjoy the, Violence thank you for, Listening see you back

954
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 2: here next. Week Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly

955
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 2: if you or someone you care about has a gambling,

956
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 2: problem help is available twenty four to seven at one

957
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 2: eight Hundred gambler