WEBVTT - Managing Business Model Changes

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>What happens when the best business decision you can make

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<v Speaker 2>is to change businesses. What's the best way to redeploy

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<v Speaker 2>your skill sets in the modern age of artificial intelligence

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<v Speaker 2>and changing business models. I'm Barry Dhelts and on today's

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<v Speaker 2>edition of At the Money, we're going to discuss how

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<v Speaker 2>to manage your way through the challenges of technology driven change.

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<v Speaker 2>To help us unpack all of this and what it

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<v Speaker 2>means for your career, let's bring in veteran markets journalists

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<v Speaker 2>and CFA Sam Row. Sam is known for his clear,

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<v Speaker 2>data driven insights into markets and the economy. He spent

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<v Speaker 2>two decades working in the trenches for shops such as Forbes, Yahoo, Finance,

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<v Speaker 2>Business Insider, and Axios. He launched his own substack three

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<v Speaker 2>years ago ticker Tker, which earned him the Society of

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<v Speaker 2>Business and Editor and Writers Award for Best in Business

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty two. So let's start with your background.

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<v Speaker 2>You earn a certified financial analyst, but you became a

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<v Speaker 2>financial journalist. Explain that initial career choice.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Well, the initial plan actually was to figure out

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<v Speaker 3>a way to get into Wall Street. You know, if

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<v Speaker 3>we go even further back, I was working as a

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<v Speaker 3>contractor for a law firm that for whatever reason, got

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<v Speaker 3>me exposure to equity research for the first time. And

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<v Speaker 3>this is the first time I started to realize that

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<v Speaker 3>how asset valuation worked. And it's not just math than

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<v Speaker 3>spreadsheets and you know, a hard science, you know, theoretical exercise.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of soft sciences involved in here because

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<v Speaker 3>you're dealing with human behavior. So I was interested in

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<v Speaker 3>getting into equity research. And my first job being able

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<v Speaker 3>to write about stocks or markets was at Forbes in

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<v Speaker 3>their investment Newsletters division.

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<v Speaker 2>So a traditional media outlet, but a sort of non

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<v Speaker 2>traditional position. That's kind of been your career history. So

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<v Speaker 2>you go from Forbes Newsletters, Yahoo Finance, Business Insider axios.

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<v Speaker 2>These are all post twenty twentieth century sort of technology

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<v Speaker 2>based news organization.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure, yeah, yeah, I mean even even Forbes when I

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<v Speaker 3>was there, I was there from two thousand and six

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<v Speaker 3>to twenty ten, was by far number one in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of news websites. They had tons and tons and tons

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<v Speaker 3>of traffic going to their website because they were one

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<v Speaker 3>of the first new outlets to really establish themselves in

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<v Speaker 3>the late nineties and early two thousands, and then of

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<v Speaker 3>course the financial crisis comes, and you know, business media

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<v Speaker 3>did not do very well during that time. I eventually

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<v Speaker 3>get laid off in twenty ten, and I'm in between

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<v Speaker 3>jobs a little bit, and then I end up at

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<v Speaker 3>Business Insider, where the business model is just completely different.

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<v Speaker 3>You know what. My last day at Forbes, actually had

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<v Speaker 3>a talk with my boss's boss in my office. That's

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<v Speaker 3>what the state of things were back then. Right, that

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<v Speaker 3>I could actually have an office at a print magazine

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<v Speaker 3>in a building in Greenwich.

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<v Speaker 2>Village seems super inefficient.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I didn't realize how inefficient that was until I

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<v Speaker 3>ended up that Business Insider, where on my first day

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<v Speaker 3>on a desk that's probably about three feet wide in

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<v Speaker 3>a newsroom where we're basically just sitting their shoulder to

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<v Speaker 3>shoulder with every other editor and journalist, including you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the editor chief and the CEO of the company, and

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<v Speaker 3>the productivity there was insane. So yeah, like in the

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<v Speaker 3>snap of a finger, I realize, you know, there's a

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<v Speaker 3>reason why we had layoffs at my previous employer.

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<v Speaker 2>So that took place in twenty ten. But really we've

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<v Speaker 2>seen technology really hurting traditional media's business model since the

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen nineties, So Craigslist really did a job on the

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<v Speaker 2>classified advertising business, which is a big driver. eBay was

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<v Speaker 2>another thing that took sales away from the traditional ad model.

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<v Speaker 2>Now it's things like Facebook, Marketplace, Zillow for real estate,

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<v Speaker 2>bring a trailer for automobiles. Technology has been taking big

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<v Speaker 2>chunks of the revenue streams from traditional media. It's now

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<v Speaker 2>three plus decades of this. When did you first start

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<v Speaker 2>to realize, hey, this entire underlying business model is under assault.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it was probably late in my business inside

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<v Speaker 3>our days and early in my Yahoo Finance days, where

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<v Speaker 3>we started to really begin to understand how much digital

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<v Speaker 3>news sites were beholden to the traffic coming from places

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<v Speaker 3>like Google Search and social media platforms like Facebook. But

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<v Speaker 3>then in terms of like the revenue perspective with advertising

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<v Speaker 3>and all of this stuff, the you quickly saw that

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<v Speaker 3>the economics of this was falling apart. And I think

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<v Speaker 3>that the advertisers were largely realizing that the roi of

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<v Speaker 3>having ads on some of these sites, you know, weren't

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<v Speaker 3>as competitive as what they're doing now, which is having

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<v Speaker 3>an influencer on TikTok, you know, hockeing products.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're going to work a way up to social media.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to track your career. So you start Business

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<v Speaker 2>Insider in the twenty twenty eleven Yahoo finances when twenty sixteen,

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<v Speaker 2>so five years later, and then Axios.

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<v Speaker 3>Twenty twenty one for a very brief period.

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<v Speaker 2>And then you launch your substack back in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 2>two when substack was still kind of young. We hadn't

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<v Speaker 2>quite hit you know, peak substack yet. Sure what was

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<v Speaker 2>the motivation to say, you know what, I have to

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<v Speaker 2>take control of this and do it on my own.

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<v Speaker 3>I think, you know, being in management at Yahoo Finance

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<v Speaker 3>and getting a little bit of exposure to it at

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<v Speaker 3>Business Insider. For me, I think it was as simple

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<v Speaker 3>at it was. Two. There's two parts to this one.

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<v Speaker 3>If you can keep your costs low, then I think

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<v Speaker 3>you can have a media operation. And related to costs,

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<v Speaker 3>if you can be if you have an audience, and

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<v Speaker 3>if you are sort of very deliberate about how who

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<v Speaker 3>your audience is and how big that audience and get,

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<v Speaker 3>then you can have the revenue to cover that cost

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<v Speaker 3>and you can have a nice small business like like

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<v Speaker 3>what I'm doing now.

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<v Speaker 2>So Substack really inverted the traditional media model back in

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<v Speaker 2>when you have an office and a salary. They're the

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<v Speaker 2>ones who are who are building subscriptions, running ads, doing

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<v Speaker 2>the business side of it. Your job in a traditional

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<v Speaker 2>media business is to just create content. The inversion is

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<v Speaker 2>writers now earn money based on their subscriptions, which are

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<v Speaker 2>driven in part by their content, but also their marketing, savage,

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<v Speaker 2>their branding, their reputations. Is this new content model a

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<v Speaker 2>modern meritocracy?

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<v Speaker 3>I think increasingly. I'm not sure if I would characterize

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<v Speaker 3>it that way. You know, I think about you know,

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<v Speaker 3>I spend a lot of time on TikTok and Twitch

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<v Speaker 3>and watch you know, all the various streamers that have

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<v Speaker 3>found career success. And there are some people who get massive,

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<v Speaker 3>and there are some people who have very medium sized,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, moderate sized audiences. The analogy that I've been

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<v Speaker 3>using lately when it comes to how people or how

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<v Speaker 3>media has been working is the difference between publicly traded

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<v Speaker 3>fast food companies and your favorite restaurant that's run by

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<v Speaker 3>mom and pop around the corner. Right. It's possible to

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<v Speaker 3>have a really great restaurant with just one outlet, Right.

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<v Speaker 3>I think if you ask most people, if you ask

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<v Speaker 3>them what their favorite restaurant is, it's a privately owned

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<v Speaker 3>family business somewhere. Because the red sauce will never be

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<v Speaker 3>replicated by Olive Garden or whatever. That doesn't mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>Olive Garden and McDonald's and any of this stuff is bad,

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<v Speaker 3>But it's just the business strategy. The reach, the audience

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<v Speaker 3>that they're going for is going to be very different.

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<v Speaker 3>And so I think that there's probably a world where,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, these big mainstream media outlets and the independent

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<v Speaker 3>journalists can coexist. I think it only works because the

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<v Speaker 3>frictions and the costs and the barriers to entry to

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<v Speaker 3>becoming an independent writer has come down significantly.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me ask you a sort of abstract question about

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<v Speaker 2>about Google Search as a source for new readers or

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<v Speaker 2>new blog followers or whatever. Cory Doctor uses the phrase

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<v Speaker 2>platform crapification, and we've certainly seen that with Google. I

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<v Speaker 2>find myself using Google far much less. The whole genius

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<v Speaker 2>of page ranks seems to have gone away. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>want their AI answer. I have perplexity on my phone.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't need them. If I want an AI answer,

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<v Speaker 2>I know exactly how to get it. What I want

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<v Speaker 2>is show me the top thirty fifty one hundred sites

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<v Speaker 2>that have this phrase or this topic, and I just

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<v Speaker 2>don't get that anymore, just fiston with so much garbage.

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<v Speaker 2>So the question I want to ask you is has

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<v Speaker 2>the slow I guess it's too early to call the

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<v Speaker 2>death of Google, but has the crapification of Google harmed

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<v Speaker 2>writers who are looking for an audience or are people

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<v Speaker 2>no longer relying on it? And word of mouth is

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<v Speaker 2>helping people looking from it? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>I would actually say it's probably helped. Really, I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's made it's it's hurt the large media companies significantly.

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<v Speaker 3>I think Wall Street Journal had an article, fabulous article

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<v Speaker 3>about this in terms of how much search traffic digital

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<v Speaker 3>media sites we're getting from from Google, and it's all shrink.

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<v Speaker 3>It has been shrinking.

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<v Speaker 2>It's collapsed, collapsed.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's a nightmare. But that also means if people

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<v Speaker 3>are spending less time being drawn to these mega properties,

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<v Speaker 3>well where are they going for their news and their information?

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<v Speaker 3>And maybe they're you know, gravitating toward you know, something

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<v Speaker 3>like a newsletter that they signed up because you know,

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<v Speaker 3>one of their friends shared something and they saw something

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<v Speaker 3>good here.

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<v Speaker 2>So so Google SEO is not a job anyone should

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<v Speaker 2>be thinking about that. That was a real job, certainly

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<v Speaker 2>since the nineties and two thousands. Yeah, hey, if you

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<v Speaker 2>can optimize for Google Search, here's a fire hose of traffic.

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<v Speaker 2>Just hope they never changed their algorithm.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, I think, I think passively. I try

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<v Speaker 3>to be conscious of things that help improve the SEO

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<v Speaker 3>of anything I publish. But I'm not going to lose

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<v Speaker 3>sleep over it because you know, I might get a

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<v Speaker 3>couple more clicks.

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<v Speaker 2>It's so diminished today from from what it once was.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's been the most surprising part of this transition

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<v Speaker 2>to you know, hanging out your own newsletter? What's been

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<v Speaker 2>the most difficult part?

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<v Speaker 3>The most difficult part, you know, I you know, it

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<v Speaker 3>is very easy. All of the other resources you get

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<v Speaker 3>from working at a large company. You realize you took

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<v Speaker 3>all that stuff for granted, having access to really great

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<v Speaker 3>healthcare for a very cheap price. That's number one too.

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<v Speaker 3>When you have tech issues, you're not on the phone,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, when you're when you're employed by someone, you're

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<v Speaker 3>not the one on the phone with Verizon. Someone else

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<v Speaker 3>is taking care of that and.

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<v Speaker 2>You're here today coast your Verizon modem.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that that's the whole other, uh nightmare but but yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>all that stuff like you know, the ac doesn't work

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<v Speaker 3>in my apartment, you know who's paying for the snacks

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<v Speaker 3>and all this kind of stuff, and then you know

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<v Speaker 3>there are there are other things that are you know,

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<v Speaker 3>intangible value that that I really do miss about working

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<v Speaker 3>at at larger media companies, which is being surrounded by

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<v Speaker 3>people who are passionate about what they're doing. They're curious.

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<v Speaker 3>You can bounce ideas off and have something you know,

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<v Speaker 3>crushed or really developed, you know, in a room with

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<v Speaker 3>with with with people. So I think, you know, it's

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<v Speaker 3>a trade off though. The other thing being that as

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<v Speaker 3>an independent writer, I'm not in nearly as many meetings

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<v Speaker 3>as I used to.

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<v Speaker 2>You're not wasting as much time. So so final question,

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<v Speaker 2>someone thinking about a career change, thinking about hanging their

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<v Speaker 2>own jingle, what's the most important lesson you can impart

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<v Speaker 2>to those people?

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<v Speaker 3>You just have to go out and give it a shot.

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<v Speaker 3>It doesn't cost anything to start a website or a

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<v Speaker 3>blog on any of these newsletters, especially if you start

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<v Speaker 3>off free, and you know, if you might actually find

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<v Speaker 3>you have a passion for writing. Some people think that

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<v Speaker 3>they want to be a writer, they give it a shot.

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<v Speaker 3>They find out that they don't want to be a writer.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a lonely grind, it can be.

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<v Speaker 3>It can be very lonely. And then some people find

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<v Speaker 3>that it's therapeutic or it's a way to keep themselves organized.

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<v Speaker 3>You know. I've actually talked to a couple of financial

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<v Speaker 3>advisors who have started newsletters for no other reason than

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<v Speaker 3>to help them keep themselves organized, and have found an

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<v Speaker 3>audience for this because what they're doing for themselves is

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<v Speaker 3>actually benefiting someone else. Huhh. I think it's just worth

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<v Speaker 3>giving it a shot.

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<v Speaker 2>So to wrap up, if you're thinking about changing careers,

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<v Speaker 2>you should be paying attention to technology, what it's doing

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<v Speaker 2>to your field's revenue and profit models. Understand how technology

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<v Speaker 2>is changing the way business is being done. It's usually

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<v Speaker 2>better to jump than to be pushed. I'm Barry Redults.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg's at the Money