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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second. Hello and welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast The UFC Betting Preview. I'm Sean Zerilla

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Speaker 2: Joy today by Billy Board to help you break down

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Speaker 2: a thirteen fight card for UFC three twenty six, give

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Speaker 2: you our best bets, favorite underdogs, top props, and more.

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Speaker 2: If you'd like to tell some of the best that

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Speaker 2: we discussed on today's show, look for the quick slip

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Speaker 2: link both in the podcast and the video description, or

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Speaker 2: visit Action network dot com Slash bet Now thirteen fight

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Speaker 2: card from the TMO Brewery to in Las Vegas five

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Speaker 2: pm pre limbs and nine pm pay per view. The

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Speaker 2: main event VMF title bout between Max Holloway and Charles

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Speaker 2: olavera rematch from twenty fifteen where Max one in ninety

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Speaker 2: nine seconds via knockout, fighting back at lightweight for the

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Speaker 2: BMF titled bout. Would say Max probably has slightly better cardio,

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Speaker 2: definitely better head strike durability of the pair relatively binary fight,

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Speaker 2: and that Charles is going to be looking to get

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Speaker 2: things to the ground more likely than not, not that

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Speaker 2: Charles can't strike. It's just the differential durability leads to

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Speaker 2: him probably having his best path on the map. We

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Speaker 2: really haven't seen Max against too many grapplers in recent years. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: one of the best distance strikers in the UFC history,

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Speaker 2: outpaces his opponents by two point two strikes permitted Charles

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Speaker 2: getting slightly uppaced on the feet max eighty three percent

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Speaker 2: takedown defense, he would expect that he would be able

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Speaker 2: to keep it on the feet. It was actually Billy

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Speaker 2: surprised by Charles's takedown success rate. He's completed forty of

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Speaker 2: his one hundred takedown attempts in the UFC. Forty percent

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Speaker 2: is probably double what I expected to find for his

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Speaker 2: takedown rate. I wouldn't think he would have that much

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Speaker 2: success in terms of getting the takedowns. Normally you see

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Speaker 2: the jiu jitsu guys closer to like twenty percent twenty

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Speaker 2: five percent of the takedown rate. Forty percent did seem

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Speaker 2: pretty high relative to my expectations. He also averages about

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Speaker 2: one takedown per minute when he's at distance, four point

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Speaker 2: seven per five minutes at distance. But ultimately, given the

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Speaker 2: binary nature of this fight, given the fact that we

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Speaker 2: haven't seen holloway against too many high level grapplers, and

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Speaker 2: also the Charles head strike durability piece. Also the fact

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Speaker 2: that frankly that he was knocked out in ninety nine

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Speaker 2: seconds in the initial bout does lead me to believe

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Speaker 2: that Max certainly is enough power to put Charles away.

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Speaker 2: I make this fight to end inside the distance closer

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Speaker 2: to minus two ninety. I saw minus two twenty five

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Speaker 2: at DraftKings, but I just want a ladder up or

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Speaker 2: ladder down. I guess from your perspective, the unders inside

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Speaker 2: the distance minus two twenty five, under four and a

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Speaker 2: half is minus one ninety, under three and a half

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Speaker 2: is minus one twenty five. Under two two and a

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Speaker 2: half is plus one thirty five, and under one and

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Speaker 2: a half is plus one forty. You could put point

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Speaker 2: one on each of those. You could put point two

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Speaker 2: on the inside the distance prop or just structure at

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Speaker 2: point one even la across the board. I think there's

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Speaker 2: a decent chance we hit all five of those, if

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Speaker 2: not four of those. The under ladder my favorite way

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Speaker 2: to bet Saturday's main event. Billy, how do you see

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Speaker 2: this one playing out in terms of the total. I

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Speaker 2: know you lean to Charles seems like Charles might be

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Speaker 2: the sharper side of the fight because it does seem

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Speaker 2: like John Public is on Max Halloway given the way

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Speaker 2: the first fight played out. But also I think just

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Speaker 2: the general herd strike durability is like easier for people

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Speaker 2: to envision the fight finishing that way than it is

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Speaker 2: easier to envision Charles getting Max's back or something like

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Speaker 2: that and choking them out. So you're leaning to Charles

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Speaker 2: on the money line. Didn't seem particularly confident no in

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Speaker 2: it though, And then how do you view the total

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Speaker 2: playing out in this matchup or any winning method props

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Speaker 2: you like live betting angles as well.

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Speaker 3: Curious to your thoughts.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, my leading towards Charles is mostly just like vibes

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Speaker 4: and what I want to happen, which you know longtime

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Speaker 4: listeners know. With you usually handling the main event, I

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Speaker 4: don't put a ton of time into researching these just

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Speaker 4: because my time is better spent elsewhere. To add on

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Speaker 4: to what you're saying though about the head strike durability

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Speaker 4: leading to unders Holloway has been dropped in both of

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Speaker 4: his last two fights, so it's a concern for both guys.

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Speaker 4: If you've been a longtime fan. There was a period

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Speaker 4: in there like Max came on, I want to say

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Speaker 4: Sports Center did an interview where he seemed to all

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Speaker 4: concussed and out of it, and we thought he might

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Speaker 4: be done. I don't know, it's probably seven years ago

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Speaker 4: at this point. That was more than half of his

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Speaker 4: career has happened since then, So that's always been like

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Speaker 4: a vague concern with Holloway. He's very famously stopped sparring

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Speaker 4: for a long period, and there he still might not

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Speaker 4: spar as far as I know. So to the broader point,

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Speaker 4: I love the unders for that reason because an Olive

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Speaker 4: vera knockout isn't all that crazy. He's got big power,

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Speaker 4: he's got good muay Thai. Holloway is beginning to show

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Speaker 4: issues with their ability. The only thing I guess I'll

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Speaker 4: push back slightly on the first fight that was the

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Speaker 4: weird Charles Oliver. They listed as a throat injury on

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Speaker 4: topology and he never even really got punched in that area.

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Speaker 4: He obviously came in with some kind of pre existing

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Speaker 4: thing and back in those days, seemed to just need

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Speaker 4: the money and took a fight he shouldn't have before

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Speaker 4: we knew who either of these guys were, so I

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Speaker 4: don't It was also more than ten years ago, Like,

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Speaker 4: we shouldn't be looking at that too much anyway, give

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Speaker 4: in a different weight class and blah blah blah. So

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Speaker 4: I don't worry about that element as much. I will

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Speaker 4: have a small bet on Charles olivera just for fun. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: should be a fun fight. This is one that you

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Speaker 4: should be able to enjoy without it really one without

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Speaker 4: needing to have too many bets on it, and two

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Speaker 4: without it really needing to mean anything. I was joking

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Speaker 4: in the Action Network discord. The BMF title is just

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Speaker 4: the lightweight intercontinental title at this point because we've got

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Speaker 4: so many big names in there, we want to have

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Speaker 4: a second belt for those guys to go after. I

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Speaker 4: think they should have to move weight classes every time

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Speaker 4: you fight for the BMF title, so your next one

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Speaker 4: should have to be up or down a class just

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Speaker 4: to give some other guys a shot at it. But

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Speaker 4: as of now, yes, the lightweight Intercontinental title. We're all

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Speaker 4: gonna have a good time. It'll be a fun fun.

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Speaker 4: I don't think it means I hope neither guy gets

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Speaker 4: a title shot off the backs of it, because there's

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Speaker 4: more deserving fighters but looking forward to.

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Speaker 2: It, Yeah, why not just put them at super lightweight

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Speaker 2: or something if you if you want to bang them out,

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Speaker 2: like why make them cut weight to their normal weight classes.

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Speaker 2: Let them do it at one sixty five without like

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Speaker 2: a significant weight cut, and then you're likelier to get

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Speaker 2: a banger of a fight in my opinion, if these

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Speaker 2: guys aren't killing themselves to get down to one to

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Speaker 2: fifty five. So I like your point about making the

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Speaker 2: move around weight classes, letting another challenger have access to

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Speaker 2: the belt. Yeah, just like why put it at you know,

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Speaker 2: some sort of catchweight that allows more dudes to potentially

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Speaker 2: get involved in pursuing it, because otherwise it's just sorry,

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Speaker 2: go ahead, Billy I.

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Speaker 4: Said, because if you if we're not moving weight classes

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Speaker 4: because they did a little bit at the beginning, it's

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Speaker 4: just an extra lightweight title. Like if Halloween then has

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Speaker 4: to go face a welter, like go fight Kevin Holland

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Speaker 4: or Horare Mospital or something at one seventy, then it's

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Speaker 4: kind of fun. We're moving around, we're getting different guys

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Speaker 4: in the mix. That's really be a MA should mean

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Speaker 4: any guy any weight, you know, not extra lightweight.

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Speaker 2: What's your opinion on potentially trading this fight live? If

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Speaker 2: you are going to come in with a Charles ticket

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Speaker 2: pre fight, say somebody is looking to trade the fight,

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Speaker 2: you know, is there a point at which maybe after

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Speaker 2: run two something like that. It's not that Charles has

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Speaker 2: bad cardio. I just do feel like Halloway has slightly

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Speaker 2: better cardios. Is there going to be an entry point

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Speaker 2: where you're looking to get plus money on both sides.

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Speaker 4: I'm not really doing that, especially coming in with a

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Speaker 4: Charles ticket. The one way I could see doing that

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Speaker 4: is if Charles gets knocked down, but you think he

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Speaker 4: was maybe doing his ropodope kind of thing where he's

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Speaker 4: just inviting you into his guard. Because sometimes we'll get

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Speaker 4: some real funky live numbers. You've got to be super fast.

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Speaker 4: We've talked at length about the delay that we see now,

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Speaker 4: which might make that impossible. I don't think Halloway is

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Speaker 4: going to follow him down if he gets one of

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Speaker 4: those false knockdowns. I think Max at this point in

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Speaker 4: his career is more than hip to that. But it

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Speaker 4: might just give us a bigger price on Charles Olivera

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Speaker 4: than it should be, because you know, the book views

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Speaker 4: it as a knockdown when it was really just Charles

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Speaker 4: taking a jab and going, please jiu jitsu with me,

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Speaker 4: and he's not actually hurt. So that also skews the

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Speaker 4: view of Charles's head strike their ability because if you

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Speaker 4: look at all the knockdowns scored against him, some of

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Speaker 4: them weren't like many of them were, and he can

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Speaker 4: certainly be knocked out, but some of those in there

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Speaker 4: were just him doing it on purpose. So tricky one.

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Speaker 4: From a live betting angle, I think Holloway, you're right,

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Speaker 4: is definitely the better cardio fighter. But does the line

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Speaker 4: make that, you know, possible or easy to exploit? I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Gaechee fight, the Poyer fight, I feel like

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Speaker 2: he ended up on his back twice once twice early

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Speaker 2: in the fight before ending up coming back and finishing

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Speaker 2: those guys. Let's talk about our fight of the night

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Speaker 2: between Kyle Ohio and Rainier de Ritter. Kyle about minus

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Speaker 2: two to seventy five Rightier plus two twenty five in

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Speaker 2: the middleway division fight, Minus won forty to reach a decision.

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Speaker 2: Rhinier three inches taller three inch each advantage, but both

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Speaker 2: south Pas and we did see RDR struggle against GM

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Speaker 2: three a little bit. I think was partially because of

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Speaker 2: the left on left matchup. Kyle has the better control

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Speaker 2: rate of the pair eighty two percent to sixty percent.

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Speaker 2: Has also spent more time of his fight time at

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Speaker 2: distance though, about sixty five percent of his fight time

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Speaker 2: striking compared to thirty six percent for RDRDY higher takedown

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Speaker 2: accuracy or higher takedown A temp rate averages eight attempts

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Speaker 2: per round at distance. It's just the thirty eight thirty

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Speaker 2: percent accuracy though, So I do think this fight kind

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Speaker 2: of comes down to whether RDR is able to get

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Speaker 2: the grappling going. He does a better distance striking efficiency,

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Speaker 2: I just over the course of a fifteen minute fight.

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Speaker 2: If they are just kickboxing, I would certainly give the

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Speaker 2: advantage to KYO. So, Billy, you are going to take

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Speaker 2: the dog shot here with RDR at about plus T twenty,

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Speaker 2: do you agree with that assessment that he needs some

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Speaker 2: success grappling or at least getting to the clinch in

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Speaker 2: order to win this matchup? And then any other ways

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Speaker 2: you view this fight, winning methods, totals, et cetera. At

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Speaker 2: live betting, Give me your thoughts here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, one hundred percent on what you said about the Clint.

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Speaker 4: I'm glad you threw that mention in there. I have

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Speaker 4: the full fight preview of this one. It's already written.

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Speaker 4: Won't go up quite yet, but I said, the biggest

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Speaker 4: factor here will be the distance at which the fight happens.

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Speaker 4: If they are in tight range, whether it's grappling or striking,

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Speaker 4: I think RDR is going to have a lot of success.

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Speaker 4: He's really good with those body shots in the clinch.

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Speaker 4: He's knees in particular, where Kyle can easily pick him

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Speaker 4: apart at distance. I'm mostly ignoring the official stats for RDR.

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Speaker 4: Only a few UFC fights. A couple of them were

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Speaker 4: weird matchups. It's just not something I'm too worried about.

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Speaker 4: One of the reasons I'm on the dog shot for

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Speaker 4: RDR is that he fought five times last year and

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Speaker 4: he came out after the Brendan Allen lost and said like,

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Speaker 4: my body just failed me normally. I go, yeah, sure

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Speaker 4: it did, whatever. But he is massive, Like, I have

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Speaker 4: no idea how he makes one eighty five, a lot

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Speaker 4: of weight cuts in a short period, and he dominated

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Speaker 4: Brendan Allen in round one with the grappling, which is

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Speaker 4: what Brendan Allen is good at Before he kind of

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Speaker 4: just shut down. Now that he's had six months off,

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Speaker 4: I think he'll come in looking much better. The bigger

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Speaker 4: reason for me, though, is that RDR is both good

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Speaker 4: enough at one thing, that being the grappling, and bad

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Speaker 4: enough at another, that being the striking that he can

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Speaker 4: kind of beat anyone if the chips fall his way,

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Speaker 4: could also kind of loose to anyone. But if you're

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Speaker 4: getting him at north A plus two hundred, you almost

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Speaker 4: have to take him because that skill set can play

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Speaker 4: against anyone. Like if he gets on top of Hamzad,

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Speaker 4: it would not shock me for RDR just amit Hamzad.

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Speaker 4: How he gets on top of Hamzat would be a

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Speaker 4: big question. But with his judo, that's a different style

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Speaker 4: of grappling than even someone like Hamzad is used to,

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Speaker 4: so that can work on anyone. His striking defense is

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Speaker 4: so bad and so awkward and sloppy, he can also

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Speaker 4: loose to anyone. So he is rapidly becoming a You

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Speaker 4: bet him as a dog, fade him as a favorite

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Speaker 4: kind of fighter for me, and Kyle's almost the complete opposite,

248
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Speaker 4: and that he's not super great at any one thing.

249
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Speaker 4: But he does everything by the book, like he has

250
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Speaker 4: no big weaknesses, and he's super smart and intelligent, like

251
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Speaker 4: the game plan is allays there. He's always looking for

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Speaker 4: the shortest path to a victory. He strikes against grapplers,

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Speaker 4: he grapples strikers, all that stuff you like to see.

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Speaker 4: But he's not super fast, he's not super powerful, he's

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Speaker 4: not an elite grappler. He's good at all those things,

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Speaker 4: he's just not great. So that kind of with a

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Speaker 4: matchup against RDR, it's just I feel like pretty high variants.

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Speaker 4: I know you were on the Kyo decision, which John

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Speaker 4: Lefranco has just texted me last night about wanting to

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Speaker 4: be on. I think if you're playing KYO, that is

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Speaker 4: one hundred percent the right way to do it. Other

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Speaker 4: prop for me is kind of the inverse of that

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Speaker 4: RDR finish only I think makes a lot of sense

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Speaker 4: as well, if you wanted to do that instead of

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Speaker 4: him straight up. I don't remember the price. I remember

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Speaker 4: looking at it and deciding I preferred straight up, but

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Speaker 4: wouldn't fault anyone for taking it that way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess my biggest concern both with that market,

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Speaker 2: with the Kyo decision market is that we saw as

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Speaker 2: RDR essentially quit in his last fight against Brandon Allam.

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Speaker 2: He's also quit in a one championship fight in round

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Speaker 2: four he cuts just so much weight to make one

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Speaker 2: eighty five. I don't think it's necessarily his fault, like

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Speaker 2: he said, I think his body just kind of shut

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Speaker 2: down on him in those fights. But ultimately, yes, I

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Speaker 2: do agree with John. I like Kyle by decision. I

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Speaker 2: make that line closer to plus one ten I saw

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Speaker 2: as high as plus one forty. I also show money

279
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Speaker 2: line delta or value on Kyo as well, but not

280
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Speaker 2: really interested in him as a parlay piece. It just

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Speaker 2: if he wins, it's likely to be chipping away by

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Speaker 2: decision and not necessarily separating to a significant degree.

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Speaker 3: He also may lose round one.

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Speaker 2: If RDR has full gas in his tank, he's able

285
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Speaker 2: to grapple successfully in round one. I could see that happening.

286
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Speaker 2: The money line moves in a little bit, you're able

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Speaker 2: to get a better live number on KYO after five minutes.

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Speaker 2: Would certainly consider a live wager as well, but Kyle

289
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Speaker 2: by decision. My favorite way to get this fight Billy

290
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Speaker 2: taking a dog shot on RDR at plus two twenty,

291
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Speaker 2: are you going to look for any live on kyo

292
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Speaker 2: to come back after round one?

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Speaker 4: Billy, Yeah, if we get a big price, that's one

294
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Speaker 4: of those you might as well just arm it out

295
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Speaker 4: or try to get at least some of the risk back.

296
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Speaker 4: I think in a three round fight, I'm not as

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Speaker 4: worried about it, because sure, you know, if you can

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Speaker 4: win two rounds and just survive a third, we're cool.

299
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Speaker 4: But yeah, it certainly if we see plus two hundred

300
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Speaker 4: or whatever on the other side of it, at some point,

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Speaker 4: I'll probably probably be joining you on that. Right.

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Speaker 2: Here was plus one sixty five in the finish only market, Kyle,

303
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Speaker 2: minus two thirty five. I think that should probably be

304
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Speaker 2: closer to Evans, But I agree like you may as

305
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Speaker 2: well almost just take the dog shot at that point

306
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Speaker 2: at plus two twenty, Is that is that the number

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Speaker 2: you saw as well?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's moved around a little bit. I think it was.

309
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Speaker 4: I think it's came in on RDR. I think you

310
00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,240
Speaker 4: could give a better price a few days ago, so

311
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Speaker 4: I got to update that in the article that I

312
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Speaker 4: wrote early this week. But yeah, I mean, if those

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Speaker 4: lines were closer together, I'd probably just take the finish

314
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Speaker 4: only and get there if it keeps moving.

315
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Speaker 2: But Kyle minus three sixty in the decision only market

316
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Speaker 2: feels about right to me. I was looking at fighter props.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they've oh, they have hung takedowns. I

318
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Speaker 2: know you mentioned the clinch stuff, you know, being primarily

319
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Speaker 2: the way RDR controls this fight. KYO over half a

320
00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,720
Speaker 2: takedown is minus one twenty, which is kind of interesting.

321
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Speaker 2: RDYR over one and a half takedowns is plus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of interested in that KYO over half a

323
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Speaker 2: takedown a little bit. I guess his optimal strategy is

324
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Speaker 2: kind of just separate and strike. But if RDR potentially

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Speaker 2: tires is the fight extens It's not like it's out

326
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Speaker 2: of Kyo's skill set to try to wrestle and get

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Speaker 2: on top of somebody.

328
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Speaker 3: Do you agree that might be a little low.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I think that's pretty sharp catch by you, because

330
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Speaker 4: RDR isn't a guy that's even going to really put

331
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Speaker 4: up that much resistance on a takedown. He'll be like, yeah,

332
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Speaker 4: take me down and then we'll be where I want

333
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Speaker 4: to be anyway. So I think the bigger impediment there

334
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Speaker 4: is KYO being smart enough to fight his instinct of

335
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Speaker 4: getting a takedown when it's there, where a lot of

336
00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:44,720
Speaker 4: guys would be like, oh, takedown, this is what I've

337
00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:46,200
Speaker 4: trained my whole life for. I'll just take it where

338
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 4: Kyo's probably smart enough to not want to engage there.

339
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Speaker 4: But you just need one at minus one twenty, that's

340
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Speaker 4: not a bad line at all.

341
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't seem like it's a bad line whatsoever.

342
00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,400
Speaker 2: The Charles Olvera over one and a half is plus

343
00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,080
Speaker 2: one ten. That seems about right to me for Charles.

344
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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on that?

345
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:09,040
Speaker 4: I would take over one and a half engagements on

346
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:12,400
Speaker 4: the ground with Charles Olivera, but he's likely enough to

347
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,960
Speaker 4: pull guard at some point or do the fake knockdown

348
00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:18,360
Speaker 4: thing that like it. It's hard enough to know what

349
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,000
Speaker 4: they score is a takedown. Like I've had some brutal

350
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,160
Speaker 4: sweats just waiting on the live scoring of what I

351
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,760
Speaker 4: thought was certainly a win that with Charles Olivera of

352
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Speaker 4: all people like you can't you can't take that one

353
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Speaker 4: because whether it counts as a takedown or not is

354
00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:35,280
Speaker 4: highly highly Uh, what's the word I'm looking for? Subjective?

355
00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:37,000
Speaker 4: Based on the UFC scoring.

356
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Speaker 2: So Yeah, that's that's a very good point by you

357
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 2: in terms of Charles pulling guard in terms of the

358
00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,160
Speaker 2: takedowns being a little bit more difficult to judge for

359
00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,160
Speaker 2: the official stack keepers. Let's move on to a couple

360
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,960
Speaker 2: of consensus underdogs, maybe three consensus underdogs that we like

361
00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 2: for Saturday, the first of which is Bruno Ferrara at

362
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:57,280
Speaker 2: about plus one sixty against Gregory Hobocop Rodriguez. This fight

363
00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,280
Speaker 2: to go to a decision is around three to one,

364
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:04,000
Speaker 2: so heavily used to end by finish. Now Fahara already

365
00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:07,200
Speaker 2: knocked out Rodriguez in their first fight. He closes a

366
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,160
Speaker 2: plus two to seventy underdog RoboCop. The bigger man four

367
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,440
Speaker 2: inch is taller, three intre each advantage, also the better grappler.

368
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,359
Speaker 2: We just haven't seen him reliably wrestle in his recent fights,

369
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,440
Speaker 2: and to that point, his over under one and a

370
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 2: half takedown prop is minus one sixty to the under

371
00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:26,159
Speaker 2: I think that's probably fairly lined given the juice. If

372
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,200
Speaker 2: it was closer to minus one ten, I would be

373
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,720
Speaker 2: taking the under there. But again, we really just haven't

374
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 2: seen hobo Cop wrestle at all. Hasn't completed a takedown

375
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 2: in his past three fights. Just seems like he's aware

376
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:40,360
Speaker 2: of the fact that proactively grappling tends to tire him out.

377
00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,920
Speaker 2: The problem is is that his chin is also seemingly

378
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,720
Speaker 2: getting worse. The longer he's fight, the more damage he's taken.

379
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,480
Speaker 2: So even though he's the smaller man here, we know

380
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,639
Speaker 2: Fahara has already put him out carry substantial power is

381
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,040
Speaker 2: a little bit small for the division. But I do

382
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,879
Speaker 2: think the stylistic matchup for Hobo Cop if he's not

383
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,920
Speaker 2: going to grapple, this is basically like flipping a coin

384
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 2: for me. So I make Fahara about plus one forty,

385
00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 2: I would bet him down to about plus one fifty.

386
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,639
Speaker 2: He's going to force the issue here and make Hobo

387
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 2: Cop fight with him, and I think he has a

388
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,720
Speaker 2: good chance of getting the knockout for a second consecutive

389
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 2: match between these two. Was that kind of your read

390
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,119
Speaker 2: as well, Billy Hobo Coop not proactively grappling is just

391
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,160
Speaker 2: gonna put him in danger in a potential firefight.

392
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 4: Uh. Yes, to an extent, but beyond that, I'm not

393
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 4: sure he's even the better grappler. Fajeda was a national

394
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 4: judo champion, has used his grappling more lately, got two

395
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,120
Speaker 4: arm barrow finishes in his last three fights. Couldn't take

396
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 4: down Marvinvatori, but like nobody takes down Marvinvatori, so fine,

397
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 4: and the nice thing about his not the nice thing.

398
00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 4: The nice thing in this matchup I guess about his

399
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 4: judo style is you can't judo from distance. But if

400
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,120
Speaker 4: the other guy initiates grappling, Judo's great like the best

401
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 4: way to counter a single leg is a uchi mata,

402
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,240
Speaker 4: So if Girod tries to wrestle him, that's where the

403
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 4: throws come in. This line is bonkers to me. I've

404
00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,879
Speaker 4: been on it all week. I don't understand Fda is younger.

405
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 4: He knocked Rodriguez out the first time that fight. Faeda

406
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 4: took on short, like three days notice, and came in

407
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 4: and knocked him out in the first round. All the

408
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 4: trends are pointing his way stylistically. I think it's better

409
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 4: for him. Both guys on the feet will just exchange punches,

410
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 4: but Fada has a better chance at this point, has

411
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 4: been knocked out fewer times and probably has more power.

412
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,520
Speaker 4: I no idea by girout his favorite here. I bet

413
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 4: FEDA with any plus in front of his number, I'm

414
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 4: gonna have way too much on him this week at

415
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:33,879
Speaker 4: the risk of looking foolish. And you know, maybe the

416
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 4: market knows something I don't, that's fine, but like I'm

417
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 4: planning a flag on this one. This is just crazy

418
00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:39,200
Speaker 4: to me.

419
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 2: It's my same confidence I feel in Panama against Cuba

420
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 2: and the WBC today, same price range plus one sixty.

421
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,240
Speaker 2: I make Panama basically a favorite or a coin flip

422
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 2: now that it's going to help you by the time

423
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 2: this pod comes out. But that's basically how I feel

424
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 2: about the game. Sometimes you see something in the plus

425
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,919
Speaker 2: one sixty range and you're like, this is off by

426
00:19:59,040 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 2: ten percent?

427
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 3: What are we doing here? Because I make this even money.

428
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 2: You know, when the line is plus one sixty and

429
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 2: you want to stop yourself from putting two units on

430
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 2: it in case there's something you're missing in the market,

431
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,399
Speaker 2: and there's certainly that possibility. But I just wanted to

432
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 2: kind of like draw a line between those two types

433
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 2: of bets where you know the line is off in

434
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,160
Speaker 2: your opinion by ten percent, it doesn't mean you should

435
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,919
Speaker 2: be fulling full following full Kelly criterion and adjusting your

436
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 2: bet to whatever that edge would reflect. That's why I

437
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 2: tend to keep all of my sizing for bets relatively

438
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 2: the same, so the losses on those bigger bets do

439
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:36,919
Speaker 2: not hurt as much. I feel like when I downsize, though,

440
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 2: when I have a bet that should be a normal

441
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 2: bet size and I go to half a unit or

442
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 2: like a third of a unit, I always win those.

443
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,160
Speaker 2: It's when I the less confident ones that you upsize

444
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 2: that always seem to end up losing. So that's just

445
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 2: my point for the day is keep all of your

446
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:55,920
Speaker 2: bet sizing relatively the same, regardless of the edge size.

447
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,360
Speaker 2: Unless it's like a humongous, you know, obvious mistake, We're

448
00:20:59,359 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 2: going to move on to.

449
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, you made a good point in there, but didn't

450
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 4: linger on it too long. My general idea is that

451
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 4: if I'm if I'm way off a market on something,

452
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,159
Speaker 4: I try to figure out why I'm wrong. Right Like,

453
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 4: if you see a five percent edge based on something

454
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 4: you're doing, you're like, yeah, that's just my model being

455
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 4: slightly more efficient in the market. If you see, you know,

456
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 4: a fifteen percent edge, you're like, wait a minute, something

457
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 4: must be off here. Mma is almost the one sport

458
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 4: where I think you can get away from that a

459
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 4: little bit, just because it's it's hard to model right,

460
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 4: Like we can't we don't have a baseball sample size

461
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 4: of data to work with. And I it's the one

462
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 4: sport where I truly believe I can sit down and

463
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,199
Speaker 4: watch tape and like know better than the odds makers, right,

464
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 4: just based on my experience and background and all that.

465
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 4: With that said, your your first instinct is a gambler

466
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 4: should always be like, where did I screw this up?

467
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 4: If you're that far off the market? So that's just

468
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 4: a general PSA like if you're if you're off by

469
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 4: the market by a little, you probably have an edge.

470
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 4: If you're off by a lot, you just might have

471
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 4: broke something.

472
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, you know, I know professional betters who kind

473
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 2: of approach things from a devil's advocate perspective when they

474
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 2: do have an edge that they like, where it's just

475
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 2: they start trying to make the arguments against their side

476
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: and that may either sharpen up, you know, your confidence

477
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 2: and the side that you initially had, or you may

478
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 2: be able to put coles in the argument or find

479
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,159
Speaker 2: a reason why you are off. And that was a

480
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: very very good point by you. I apparently was on

481
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 2: my way to making that point, but as he said,

482
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 2: I did not linger long enough on it. So I

483
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 2: appreciate you coming in with the lifeboat there to actually

484
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: make or salvage what I was saying and turned it

485
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 2: into an actual idea.

486
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,719
Speaker 3: We're going to move on to another fight.

487
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 2: Similar price range, similar underdog price range for Dr Nurgazi

488
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 2: against Raphael Tobias nirks I about plus one seventy Tobias

489
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 2: minus two oh five is a light heavyweight bout. Tobias

490
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:54,959
Speaker 2: six years younger. He is very powerful, but just seems

491
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: like he's very willing to get hit in order to

492
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 2: exchange power with opponents. He has been knocked out regionally

493
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 2: by a guy who is a bit of a jobber.

494
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 2: Nerga's eye has been submitted in very embarrassing ways in

495
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:11,479
Speaker 2: his past two fights. Kamora Ezekie old choke. I mean

496
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 2: not techniques you typically see guys get finished within the UFC.

497
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 2: Those are like one or two a year type of

498
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 2: finishes out of five hundred plus fights. If that you

499
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: know you see one or two of those year total.

500
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 2: Tobias is making his UFC debut. I believe he won

501
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 2: on Contender Series. Curious about your thoughts on how that

502
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 2: fight played out, but by and large, I think this

503
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 2: is just sort of a market over correction. Ergas I

504
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,679
Speaker 2: closed minus four fifty five and his loss to Brent

505
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 2: said Roberto, he was minus one ten in his last

506
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 2: matchup against saddibaldif closed in one, is a minus one

507
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 2: twenty five favorite on Contender Series, and I feel like

508
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: going into that Ribero fight, people were very high on

509
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 2: this dude as a potential prospect, and these subbition losses,

510
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 2: the first one, at least against Rivero, was extremely surprising.

511
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 2: I guess the more recent one not as surprising in

512
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 2: to pick him fight coming off of a subloss, but

513
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 2: also thought he just looked kind of weird in those fights,

514
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 2: and what did not fight up to his potential. This

515
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 2: guy is better than what he has shown. I would

516
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 2: imagine you agree with that assessment as well, considering we're

517
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 2: both on him for this weekend. So is this more

518
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 2: a bet because you think Nergazi is better than what

519
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 2: he's shown so far, or are you mostly fading Tobias

520
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 2: in his UFCW.

521
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 4: Honestly, none of the above, None of the above. I

522
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 4: posted this on the discord last night. Really weird line

523
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 4: movement on this fight. Nergazy was like plus two thirty

524
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 4: at the start of the week. I think you said

525
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 4: plus one seventy. I don't even think those are there now,

526
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 4: Like in the time since you put this in the

527
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 4: sheet to when we're talking about it, it's continued to drop.

528
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,640
Speaker 4: I don't have any insider information on this or any

529
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 4: other fight. I should say is a disclaimer, but definitely right.

530
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,719
Speaker 4: But something's going on here. I don't know if Tobias

531
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 4: is hurt. I don't know if he's perhaps being financially

532
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 4: incentivized to not fight to his full potential here. This's

533
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 4: just funky. Other point, Nergazai has a hard to say

534
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 4: last night and a silly hat, which is a very

535
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 4: potent combination in the UFC. If you have both those things,

536
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 4: it's really hard to go oh to three and he's

537
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 4: oh and two right now. Last point to the embarrassment

538
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 4: level of the submission, and this is not helping our ergus.

539
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,639
Speaker 4: I point been submitted twice in the UFC, has never

540
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 4: been taken down. So he is wrestling himself into trouble,

541
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 4: which is not what you like to see from a fight.

542
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 4: I Q standpoint, But no, this is mostly just to

543
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 4: chasing the line movement thing. Yeah, I got it at

544
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 4: a slightly better price last night than you can get tonight.

545
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 4: By the time people are listening to this, that price

546
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 4: might not even be there. So yeah, I'm chasing some

547
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 4: steam here more than I'm breaking down a fight, but

548
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 4: also silly hat.

549
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, is that plus one seventy two? The best

550
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 2: I see now is about plus one sixty five. I

551
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 2: do make this, though, closer to about plus one ten

552
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 2: in terms of my model projection, so there's still plenty

553
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 2: of room in terms of value in my opinion, and

554
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: the batting splits for this as well, like a seven

555
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 2: percent pick rate for Nurgazion topology the other source I

556
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 2: pill from closer to fifteen percent, but on the betting

557
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 2: splits that I have, he's getting fifty six percent of

558
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 2: my sharp money breakdown. So Nergas I seemed like a

559
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 2: very obvious betting splits bet for me this weekend. We'll

560
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 2: get to one of those in my best bet section

561
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 2: at the end. But by and large, that is the

562
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 2: process that I'm trying to follow here in terms of

563
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 2: handicapping the market, not handicapping these fighters. Purely just the

564
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 2: different approach that I take in terms of building out

565
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:29,959
Speaker 2: my model nergas.

566
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 3: I definitely popped.

567
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 2: Up as a model value bet for this week, and

568
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 2: another guy who popped up as a model value bet

569
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 2: and a consensus dog play is Rob Font as high

570
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 2: as plus two hundred against Raul Rojas Rosas Junior. Now,

571
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 2: I would imagine we both expect Billy Font to get

572
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 2: taken down early and maybe to lose the first round

573
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: at a very fair clip like eighty percent of the time.

574
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 2: But the longer this fight extends, probably even by the

575
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 2: second round, as long as Font is able to show

576
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: that he can scramble up from these takedowns the nice

577
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,919
Speaker 2: submission attempts, I think that the second round pushes much

578
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 2: closer to fifty to fifty and the third round I

579
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 2: would outright favor Font in so plus two hundred on

580
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 2: a guy who I favor to win the third round,

581
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,159
Speaker 2: who I think is going to be fifty to fifty

582
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 2: to win the second round a bet I'm going to

583
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: make all day. We also like the plus three and

584
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,159
Speaker 2: a half on the points spread up believe that was

585
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 2: minus one thirty five the last time I looked, and

586
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 2: then Font live is going to be an absolute bet

587
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 2: as well. I make his pre fight money line about

588
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 2: plus one sixty. I just anticipate that you will get

589
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 2: a better number live after round one. He's admitted permitted

590
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 2: twenty two of the last twenty nine takedowns against him,

591
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 2: so he does give up the takedowns, but he's willing

592
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: to scramble up and get off of his back and

593
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 2: I think work his way back into this fight. Do

594
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 2: you need to mention though, the seventeen year age gap

595
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 2: between these two is about as wide as I've seen

596
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: in the UFC. Just an absolute stunning different when you

597
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 2: see the age years and you go that can't possibly

598
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 2: be right, and it's like, yep, that's two decades, nearly

599
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 2: two decades between these two. So Billy thoughts on my

600
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 2: assessment of the fight with Rosas getting out to a

601
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 2: lead in round one and then having an opportunity to

602
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 2: live bet, which is why we both probably prefer the

603
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 2: point spread and the plus three and a half to

604
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 2: the money line at plus two hundred.

605
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, the age gap can drive to this event, which

606
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 4: is crazy. But no, I'm one hundred percent with you.

607
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 4: I don't actually I am not betting Font's money line.

608
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 4: I think Rowell can probably hang out through two rounds.

609
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 4: His Cardio looked better in his last fight against I

610
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 4: don't know some guy. It was like a year ago whatever,

611
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 4: but he he went for a submission and tanked it

612
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 4: and then got stuck on the bottom, which is why

613
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 4: he lost the third round, more than just being gassed

614
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 4: like Vince Morales or something with Vince Morales, some like

615
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 4: no name Bantama.

616
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was Morales. Before that it was Erie Kee

617
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: Lang and before that it was Tertio's.

618
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, my apologies, Vince Moreles actually enjoy I enjoy enjoy

619
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 4: watching you fight, but I just couldn't come up with

620
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 4: your name in the moment there. So I'm not as

621
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 4: worried about as Cardio as I used to be. He's

622
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 4: twenty one. He's getting better at everything. Rob Font loves

623
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 4: to get taken down. I think Rosis is actually better

624
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 4: at converting takedowns into top time than the past opponents

625
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 4: for Rob Font, who are guys who had take him

626
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 4: down and kind of let him off the hook a

627
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 4: little bit easier. With all that said, he's just got

628
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:26,719
Speaker 4: to steal around in here at fifty seven or eight

629
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 4: percent rate whatever minus one thirty five works out to

630
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 4: which does not seem that hard to do. Font very

631
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 4: good submission grappler, just not a good wrestler, so I

632
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 4: don't think he gets submitted, and I'm bringing this one back.

633
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 4: The rau rosis is the police punch special, which we

634
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 4: talked about for a couple weeks in a row and

635
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 4: got away from in his last fight against Morales. First

636
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 4: round four for four. I'm significant strikes on the ground,

637
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 4: second round zero for one, and significant strikes on the

638
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 4: ground third round zero for zero, not even trying by

639
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 4: the end of the fight, despite having like close to

640
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 4: three minutes of ground control time in every fight. So

641
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 4: Roses just needs to strike. He just starts playing jiu

642
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 4: jitsu as soon as the fight gets to the ground.

643
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 4: Other bets I'm looking at as a small sprinkle. The

644
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 4: round one point spread on draftings Rose is to win

645
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 4: the round unanimously, so minus one point five points is

646
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 4: minus one forty five. Round three point spread for Font

647
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 4: plus one and a half, which means as long as

648
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 4: he gets it on one judges card he covered it

649
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 4: is plus one hundred. Those are fun bets. I believe

650
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 4: the round three refunds if the fight were to end

651
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 4: before that, but I'm not one hundred percent on that,

652
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 4: so Sean maybe could clear that up.

653
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure about the book rules on that.

654
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 2: Not normally a market I've bet into, so I would

655
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 2: need to investigate further. Some books may also have different

656
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: rules relative to one another, but yeah, not a widely

657
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 2: available market, so I'd have to look into that individual

658
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 2: the terms of.

659
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 4: Service if you're tailing it, basically, I guess that's the

660
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 4: takeaway there, like, make sure you read the rules.

661
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: I like the approach though.

662
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 2: I think it's a very sharp approach in terms of

663
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 2: handicapping the round so this fighter it aligns with the

664
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: percentages I give out, you know at the start of

665
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,719
Speaker 2: my breakdown again, I think Rosace is like seventy five

666
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 2: to eighty percent to win round one, and font I

667
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 2: would make probably sixty forty in round three. So yeah,

668
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 2: I think a very smart approach by Billy. Thereon agreed

669
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: the point spread. You know, if I favor him to

670
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 2: win round three, he's going to cover that minus one

671
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 2: thirty five number on the point spread more often.

672
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 4: By definition, not even more often, but because that means

673
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 4: he didn't get stopped if he's fighting in round.

674
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 2: Three, So yeah, absolutely, yep, just survive and I think

675
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: he covers that point spread with relative ease. Maybe consider

676
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 2: some late round props and I know you discussed Rossa

677
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: is getting better, but Font will put it on dudes

678
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 2: in round three. Could I could see him getting a

679
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,959
Speaker 2: late stop age a third round stop it, especially if

680
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 2: he's down two. Oh, he's really going to go for it.

681
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: He's the type of guy who will just like let

682
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: it all out. So definitely worth considering the round three

683
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 2: prop as well. Do you kind of agree with that assessment?

684
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's fun. Also, I have the full breakdown for

685
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 4: this one. I didn't mention it well speaking about it,

686
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,239
Speaker 4: but Faut works the body really well, which even if

687
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,959
Speaker 4: you think Roses's cardio is starting to get better, if

688
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 4: if you get punched in the body a bunch of

689
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 4: times then it's not better anymore. So that might be

690
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 4: something to keep an eye out if you want to

691
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 4: live bet this on Rob Font, Like is he landing

692
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 4: body shots early that are going to add up late?

693
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 4: If he is, maybe the live bet is a little

694
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 4: bit more appealing. If he's not, maybe I don't jump

695
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 4: in on.

696
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 3: That Font twenty to one to win in round three.

697
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 2: Definitely, it's like a nice juicy number considering the cardio dynamic.

698
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 2: Care despite the age gap, I still prefer the cardio

699
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 2: for the fighter who's nearly two decades older than his opponent.

700
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 3: Well gone to one, sorry, go ahead.

701
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 4: No, just to the cardio. Like normally you'd favor the

702
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 4: younger guy. But Roses isn't going to stay at bantam

703
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 4: wait long. He's massive in Font doesn't look like a

704
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 4: guy who cuts a ton of weight, which I think

705
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 4: explains a lot of the cardio dynamic for both of

706
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 4: them generally, not just in this fight, but it's.

707
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 3: A very fair points.

708
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the size, the grappling, the more he's

709
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 2: forced to grapple, the more Font gets up, the more

710
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 2: Rocess has to try to take him down. It's just

711
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 2: going to expend more energy and that's what will lead

712
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 2: to the cardio dynamic. Kind of hoping halfway through the

713
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 2: fight to move on to an underdog that I like.

714
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 2: I believe Billy is on the other side here, not

715
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 2: one hundred percent sure on that, but Ricky Tertios at

716
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 2: plus one fifty nine plus one sixty you can call

717
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 2: it against Alberto Montes at minus one eighty eight. I

718
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 2: like Tertios on the money line. I like his points spread.

719
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 2: I like his live bet after round one. Again, probably

720
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 2: prefer the points spread and the live bet because Montes

721
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 2: should likely get.

722
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 3: On top in round one.

723
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 2: He's won four of his last five fights the front

724
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 2: headlock submissions, essentially just looking to get fights to the

725
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 2: ground and submit opponents. Tertio's pretty good at scrambling, just

726
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: not the most physically strong fighter. My biggest question, Billy

727
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 2: here is why this fight is taking place.

728
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 3: I believe it.

729
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 2: They're both moving up in wait, was it a short

730
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 2: notice booking? What happened here that caused this fight to

731
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: end up moving up? Just because neither of these guys

732
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 2: are one forty five vers but Tertios does actually have

733
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,120
Speaker 2: the size of advantages too. It is taller with a

734
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 2: two inch reach advantage. Montes is the stronger fighter, but

735
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 2: Tertios does that. Besides, do you know why this one

736
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 2: is up at one?

737
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 4: I have no idea on this one. There's another one

738
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 4: I'm gonna talk about shortly that I have an answer to. So, yeah,

739
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 4: that is strange. As far as I know, this has

740
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 4: been on the card for long enough time for them

741
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 4: to both make it, but yeah, I got nothing.

742
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 3: What are your Do you have any betting thoughts here?

743
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I am betting Montes Tertios is good at like technically,

744
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 4: he's just not a good athlete, like we've talked about

745
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 4: guys like this in the past, where he's just you know,

746
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 4: he's a good athlete by like YMCA pickup basketball standards,

747
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 4: but compared to the level he's fighting, and he's not.

748
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,280
Speaker 4: Both of his UFC wins in his career or split decisions,

749
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 4: and he lost on the Contender series, which is not

750
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 4: a great sign. Also loves to like he really needs

751
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 4: to get takedowns because he does get outworked on the

752
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 4: feet with speed and power, and when you're fighting a

753
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:53,439
Speaker 4: guy who's got a bunch of front head chokes, that's

754
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 4: a rough combination. So I bet Montes earlier in the week,

755
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 4: we'll probably add either a submission or if we can

756
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 4: get down not one of those markets, like the specific

757
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 4: submission and look for Anaconda ar something like that. I

758
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 4: wish they would combine those two, even throw Bravo choke

759
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 4: in there too. It's all basically the same thing as

760
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 4: a hell I've been trying to die on at various

761
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 4: points in my life that those are actually all the

762
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 4: same submission. It doesn't matter which arm goes under first.

763
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 4: Other jiu jitsu guys get mad at me, but I'm

764
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 4: standing by it. Those are all the same submission. Combine

765
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 4: them please in the in the specific submarkets sports books.

766
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 2: We'll get to a fight that's a combined underdog and

767
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 2: prop bet on either side of our assessments, respectively. But first,

768
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:33,760
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769
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,200
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770
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771
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772
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773
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774
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776
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777
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784
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:14,919
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785
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:19,320
Speaker 3: If your bet wins, the crown is yours underdog.

786
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 2: You added to the sheet here late was Gastone Belangos

787
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: at about plus two to fifty going against Young Young

788
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 2: Lee Korean Tiger fight is plus one twenty five to

789
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 2: go to a decision. I'm expecting Lee to win by submission.

790
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: Gastone is a muti fighter, but he's shown a major

791
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 2: hole in his grappling game, and Jungle is a pretty

792
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 2: good KGE wrestler, he just hasn't had the best matchups

793
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 2: to implement it has shown that he is not maybe

794
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: the best striker. And that's where I'm assuming you see

795
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 2: Bolanos having the advantage here, outpacing opponents by zero point

796
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 2: seven strikes per minute, Lee getting out paced by one

797
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 2: point eight strikes per minute, so nearly a two and

798
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 2: a half strike differential at distance for these respective fighters.

799
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 2: Lee just the much bigger man, three inches taller four

800
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:07,359
Speaker 2: inch reach advantage. Bolanios is actually moving up here from

801
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 2: one thirty five to one forty five, and Lee I

802
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 2: think cuts a lot of weight to get down to featherweight,

803
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 2: so I think he just out muscles Bolangios, gets to

804
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 2: the back, ends up submitting him. I make his sub

805
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 2: line about plus three fifty. You can get over four

806
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 2: to one on that, but also consider his inside the

807
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 2: distance prop as well. But you're taking the dog shot

808
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 2: of Bolonios, which I probably agree with if you're picking

809
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 2: a side of the money line, just because Lee is

810
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 2: not necessarily reliable to go to the grappling, and if

811
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 2: he doesn't go to the grappling, this will play out

812
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 2: pretty closely. But if he does go to the grappling,

813
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 2: I think that subprop is going to look like value.

814
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,880
Speaker 2: So where do you like Bolognos down to Billy? And

815
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 2: then how do you see this one playing out? And

816
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:47,839
Speaker 2: lie bet on Lee? What are your thoughts here?

817
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, So the reason this one is it featherweightes not

818
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 4: because Bolonios, as far as I know, is trying to

819
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 4: move up permanently. This is a short notice about where

820
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 4: the short notice fighter is coming from a heavier weight class,

821
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 4: which is not normally how we see it go right.

822
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 4: Normally we get we'd bring a fly weight up to

823
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 4: make the weight cut easier, but they moved it up

824
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 4: basically just to accommodate Lee coming into the card, which

825
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 4: means he's got to cut a ton of weight on

826
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 4: short notice and fly from Korea to Las Vegas all

827
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 4: like in a one week and a half, which seems

828
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 4: not ideal, especially when your big advantage is the grappling

829
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 4: and that's more cardio dependent than someone who's going to

830
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 4: be striking. So it's really just the short notice nature

831
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 4: of it and all the stuff that's going on there,

832
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 4: which is exacerbated by the fact that Bilanyos has to

833
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 4: cut ten less pounds than he normally does, so he

834
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,800
Speaker 4: should really cruise if he doesn't just get mulled on

835
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 4: the ground fairly early. I just find it deeply funny

836
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 4: that he was supposed to fight a different Korean, Drew saying,

837
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 4: you and the US called another Korean, even though it

838
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 4: doesn't really make it, like it would make so much

839
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:53,320
Speaker 4: more sense to have brought up flyweight up any bantam

840
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 4: weight that lives near Vegas would make more sense, Like,

841
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 4: now we're supposed to fight a Korean, we got to

842
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 4: find him another one, which I don't know why they

843
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,839
Speaker 4: did that, but whatever. So yeah, I just and plus

844
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 4: the market has moved enough where Blonios is a bigger

845
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 4: underdog than he was at the start of the week.

846
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 4: I need like two fifty or so. I think it's

847
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 4: but you're gonna get better than that. It continues to

848
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 4: move where you're getting bigger prices, so probably wait on it.

849
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 4: If you're listening to the sound of my voice and

850
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:20,879
Speaker 4: it does not Saturday afternoon, like, take your time because

851
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 4: we might get a better price. I haven't met it

852
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 4: yet myself, but if it keeps going up, like you know,

853
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 4: quarter unit, sprinkle it. Pushing plus three hundred on a

854
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 4: guy who has been on the card versus a dude

855
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 4: who flew in from Korea three days ago makes a

856
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:33,240
Speaker 4: lot of sense.

857
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 3: To me.

858
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 2: Move on fully into our top prop section. Going to

859
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 2: back up to the first fight on the card, Ravine

860
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,400
Speaker 2: Hudolpho Blato and Luke Fernandez Bolottoboup plus one ninety five

861
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 2: Fernandez minus two thirty the light heavyweight division fight to

862
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 2: go to a decision around plus two fifty and inside

863
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 2: the distance closer to minus three hundred. Fernandez, a clujiate

864
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:57,280
Speaker 2: wrestler also as a BJJ black belt, one via fifteen

865
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 2: second knockout on Contender series. I believe he's an Anacondo

866
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 2: win over Phil Hawes as well, but grappling match up,

867
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 2: but just single shots at a time, not like an

868
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 2: explosive combination puncher, but lot of the terrible striking the

869
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 2: events defense strikes at forty six percent hands really low,

870
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 2: takes a lot of damage, is pretty durable. Can Homer

871
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 2: Simpson his way to a win? And I think the

872
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,440
Speaker 2: aspect of the fight that could be interesting is if

873
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 2: he's not able to put blatt away Fernandez, if he

874
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: ends up gassing himself out. I think Balato, who has

875
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 2: pretty good cardio and relatively good durability, could end up

876
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 2: staging a comeback in the second half of the fight.

877
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 2: My model likes two bets here, not necessarily not correlated

878
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 2: based on how I just discussed the cardio aspect of

879
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 2: the fight. But you'd only give yourself limited time to

880
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 2: play with the over one and a half rounds is

881
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 2: minus one thirty. I kind of lean that direction, But

882
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 2: Balatto by Ko also popped up his value at about

883
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,400
Speaker 2: six to one. I make that closer to plus four fifty.

884
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 2: So Billy, between those two bats, which are you more

885
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 2: interested in the fight extending and the over or Blotto

886
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 2: potentially winning via upset knockout, and then any other specific

887
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 2: thoughts that you have both on Fernandez and a betting

888
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 2: perspective for this fight.

889
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I kind of liked the over. I actually had

890
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:18,959
Speaker 4: a note to myself earlier in the week that maybe

891
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 4: over question mark, and then just kind of didn't circle

892
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 4: back to it because I was looking at other fights.

893
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 4: I have a ton of Fernandez and dfs because if

894
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 4: he does win, I think it's gonna be early super

895
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 4: high on him as a prospect. I mean, he was

896
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 4: the Cage Fury amateur light heavyweight champ, Cage Ferry amateur

897
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:37,399
Speaker 4: or pro light heavyweight champ, Cage Frey pro grappling champ

898
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 4: at light heavyweight tap Eric Anders and Phil Hawes both

899
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 4: you know, solid grapplers, and it's a weight class where

900
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 4: if you're just good at one thing and like not

901
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 4: a Shelby slob, you can get to the top ten

902
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 4: without trying too hard and maybe further So huge on

903
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 4: Luke Fernandez Blotto, one of two fighters on this card

904
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 4: who has completed the Tapology rainbow. I don't know if

905
00:41:57,600 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 4: we've discussed this concept before.

906
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:03,320
Speaker 3: Sean no familiar with the tapology, but I am familiar

907
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 3: with where you going? Yeah, the audience.

908
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 4: Yeah. So he is one one, one in one and

909
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 4: taplogy in the UFC in consecutive fights. He has a

910
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 4: green win, a blue draw, a yellow no contest, and

911
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 4: a red decision, and they're all consecutive, at least if

912
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 4: you hide his canceled fights. So he is one of

913
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 4: two fighters to run the rainbow here, the other being

914
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 4: our old friend Cody brundageho is somehow still in the UFC,

915
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 4: which I always find amusing because there's not too many

916
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:30,839
Speaker 4: guys that have done it at all, and to get

917
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 4: them both on the same card is fun. I think

918
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 4: Fernandez probably steam rolls him here. But with the prices

919
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 4: we're getting at the bets you mentioned, I do like that.

920
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 4: I was hoping we'd see a little bit better the

921
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 4: over one and a half. Maybe fight to start round

922
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 4: two is a better option, depending on the price, dynamics,

923
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 4: what we have to see where those settle closer to

924
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 4: fight time.

925
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 2: Fernande has only been out of round one in his

926
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 2: third MMA pro bout, also his final amateur about but

927
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 2: every other fight, Oh, he's the second amateur about by decision.

928
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 2: But every other fight four of I believe eight of

929
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 2: ten career I believe have ended inside of a round one.

930
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 2: Seven of ten career ended inside of round one. So

931
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 2: against a better fighter like Bolotto, maybe it extends longer.

932
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 2: But Bollotto is just going to eat punches and it

933
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 2: may be up to the ref the whether or not

934
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:24,839
Speaker 2: to stop it. No, Jason Herzog at the moment. Notice

935
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 2: how Jason Herzog just appeared or disappeared from the scene

936
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 2: once those investigations started. Yeah, very quietly disappeared. Nobody's really

937
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 2: talked about it, but hasn't really come back and reffed

938
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,800
Speaker 2: any fights, and there were a lot of suspicious overs

939
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 2: that we're hitting. So Jason Herzog remains of interest for me,

940
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 2: even though nobody is talking about it. Definitely worth monitoring

941
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 2: that situation after there was rumors that he was being

942
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 2: investigated by the FBI and then apparently pushback from him

943
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:56,359
Speaker 2: specifically that he wasn't.

944
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 3: But hey, buddy, you haven't reffed in a while. I've

945
00:43:58,800 --> 00:43:59,880
Speaker 3: definitely taken notice.

946
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 2: I'm gonna move on to a fight between subid Ergy

947
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 2: at about minus two to fifty and Jesus Agilar at

948
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 2: plus two h five, this fight is minus one sixty

949
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 2: five to reach a decision. Huge differential and heightened reach here,

950
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 2: Sue has a ten inch reach advantage over Agilar, who

951
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 2: is one of the shortest reaches in the UFC, I

952
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 2: believe the shortest among men, also four inches taller. Now

953
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 2: we'll see if Agialar is able to get inside the

954
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 2: pocket and potentially land strikes, or maybe even get on

955
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 2: top of Sue and land takedowns. But generally he seems

956
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 2: at his best when opponents are trying to grapple him

957
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 2: and he's able to lock in his guillotine. That's not

958
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 2: something subid ergy is going to do in this matchup.

959
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 2: And I also think of the bigger cage. If if

960
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 2: this fight was in the smaller cage at the Appax,

961
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 2: I'd give Aguilar a better chance to close the distance.

962
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 2: I think in the bigger cage Sue really strives, So

963
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:53,959
Speaker 2: I make his money line closer to minus three fifty.

964
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,400
Speaker 2: I view him as a potential parlay piece. I think

965
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 2: he's one of the safer favorites on the board this week,

966
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:01,959
Speaker 2: but I actually prefer in a straight bet the value

967
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 2: on his decision prop. I make that essentially a point

968
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 2: flip even money, and you can get as high as

969
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,239
Speaker 2: plus one twenty five. The only issue with too is

970
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 2: that he just generally doesn't separate from opponents to really

971
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:13,640
Speaker 2: put a ton of damage on them. So I could

972
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 2: see him losing or winning a very close twenty nine

973
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:18,879
Speaker 2: twenty eight, losing a very close twenty nine to twenty eight.

974
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,759
Speaker 2: But for that reason, his decision prop I think is

975
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 2: the better bet than his money line. Billy, do you

976
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 2: have any thoughts on Agalar against Humidergy And do you

977
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 2: remember a fight where we had a ten inch reach differential,

978
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 2: because that is pretty drastic and I can't recall many

979
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 2: many differences getting to double digits there.

980
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 4: I think there was another one with Aguilar that we

981
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 4: talked about because I probably I was I want to

982
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 4: say it was Shannon Ross. I'm not looking up Shannon

983
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 4: Ross's reach right now. I don't care that much. But

984
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 4: we were like, we were both on here, like, man,

985
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 4: if you can't, you know, keep the distance against a

986
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 4: guy with this huge of reach advantage, and Ross got

987
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 4: starched in like twelve seconds by a big overhand right.

988
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 3: It was a knockout as well.

989
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 4: We were so wrong, so fast, it was beautiful. I

990
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 4: loved it, but no, I think most of his opposition

991
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 4: has kind of figured out Agilar because he's got an

992
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 4: overhand right, and he's got a guillotine and not a

993
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,880
Speaker 4: ton else and if those things aren't happening, he's fine.

994
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 4: But like, just the physical issues are too hard to

995
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:16,320
Speaker 4: overcome if you're not landing an overhand right in the guillotine,

996
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 4: which are awesome techniques if you're shorter than people like

997
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 4: those are the correct choices to make, but it's a

998
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 4: pretty limited toolbox. So I'm with you on the Sumadergy decision.

999
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 2: I think, okay, want to fight biggest favorite on the car.

1000
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 2: I believe Dante Lockjaw Johnson minus seven thirty against the

1001
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 2: aforementioned Cody Brundage at plus five thirty.

1002
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 3: I can't believe Brundage is in a fight here.

1003
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:42,360
Speaker 2: He got knocked out five weeks ago by Cam Rouston

1004
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 2: in Australia, so like, how is he even eligible to

1005
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 2: be in this fight other than the UFC just wanting

1006
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:51,359
Speaker 2: to get rid of him as quickly as possible because,

1007
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 2: as you mentioned, is also completed. The tapology Rainbow seemingly

1008
00:46:55,160 --> 00:46:57,440
Speaker 2: tries to find a way to quit or get his

1009
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 2: opponent disqualified in every fight. Johnson also at his last

1010
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:05,839
Speaker 2: bout able to submit. Sadricaz Dumas is a big guy,

1011
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 2: very powerful. I believe he used to fight all the

1012
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 2: way up at heavyweight. I make his chao prop here

1013
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 2: about minus two hundred and get minus one sixty five

1014
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 2: on that. Typically looking to bet Cody Brunches's opponents to

1015
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,600
Speaker 2: win in round two or round three. I don't think

1016
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 2: he survives that long here, particularly after the routs then

1017
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 2: knockout like I would think that regardless of him getting

1018
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 2: knocked out five weeks ago, I really cannot believe he

1019
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:32,879
Speaker 2: is eligible to take this fight or taking this fight

1020
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 2: in general. So Johnson, if you canbine him in a parlay,

1021
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a little difficult to get somebody over

1022
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 2: even money. But that chao prop at minus two hundred

1023
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 2: looks pretty solid. I just don't think he's going to

1024
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 2: want to grapple with Brundage who that is is. The

1025
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:51,839
Speaker 2: only way he gets this done is if Lockjaw tries

1026
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 2: to grapple with him. So any thoughts on this fight.

1027
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 2: I know it's difficult to bet a adjuced minus two

1028
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,479
Speaker 2: hundred koprop Are you interested in the round one prop

1029
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:01,360
Speaker 2: about even money or you just passing here?

1030
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 4: Really? Yeah, I'm gonna start by explaining to you what happens.

1031
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 4: Some of this is true, some of this is speculation

1032
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 4: on my part. I'll let the viewers listen figure out

1033
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 4: which Cody Brundage had to go to a doctor and

1034
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 4: receive special clearance to be allowed to fight and bypass

1035
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 4: the mandatory ninety days suspension after being brutally knocked out.

1036
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 4: That's the true part. The speculation part is that the

1037
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 4: UFC probably suggested a doctor who is on the UFC

1038
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 4: payroll to allow that clearance to happen. And the other

1039
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:31,280
Speaker 4: speculation part is that they probably had already cut Brundage

1040
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 4: but were like, hey, if you come back and take

1041
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 4: this one, we'll give you one more shot at it.

1042
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 4: We don't care that you got knocked out five weeks ago.

1043
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 4: Make Dante Johnson look good, or find a way to

1044
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 4: get him disqualified and save your job, which is for

1045
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 4: Cody Brundage playbook. I have ten Dfast lineups this week.

1046
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:49,960
Speaker 4: Dante Johnson is in nine of them. I'm not betting

1047
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:53,800
Speaker 4: it because basically I have effectively like five units on

1048
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 4: Dante Johnson across various other methods. Last thought, Dante Johnson,

1049
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 4: who pointed out his nickname, should fight Damien Panas next.

1050
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 2: Oh my god, I don't know. I don't even want

1051
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 2: to get into that. West west Schultz so afraid of Panas,

1052
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 2: he must be homophobic. That was that was an embarrassing

1053
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 2: effort on his part. I don't want to think about that,

1054
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:20,640
Speaker 2: that West Schultz fight ever again. That was that was painful.

1055
00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 2: Talk about losing money quickly and hopefully that that was

1056
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 2: certainly one of them. That's why we bet on those

1057
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 2: those guys though. It's it's the guys that nobody else

1058
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 2: wants to bet on because when they lose, it's going

1059
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 2: to look as horrendous as that does. So yeah, always

1060
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 2: uncomfortable bets the place, Always uncomfortable bets to watch lose.

1061
00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 2: But uh, you know, we trust the process and occasionally

1062
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 2: will hit these guys who have no chins or no

1063
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:48,760
Speaker 2: physicality being able to grapple their potents.

1064
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,839
Speaker 4: Go on, we need Panas verst lockdraw in twenty twenty six,

1065
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 4: is all I'm saying.

1066
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I I I just can't with that.

1067
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 2: I have no comment if it happens, I'll certainly comment

1068
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 2: on it, but I'm not gonna get myself fired at

1069
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 2: ten twenty five on Friday morning.

1070
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 3: In the mid WBC.

1071
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 2: Let's move on to a fight between Neandergal Tooman Denbrel.

1072
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 2: Always going to compliment myself for absolutely just nailing that

1073
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 2: name that everybody else is afraid to say against Cody

1074
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 2: Durtin flyway about here. Dirden and Brundage are basically like

1075
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 2: one and the same. For me, Dirden is a better fighter,

1076
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 2: but in terms of like the dynamic of their fights,

1077
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,319
Speaker 2: how much I do not enjoy watching them, and then

1078
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 2: also the ways in which I bet against them typically

1079
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 2: live after round one or to lose in rounds two

1080
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,719
Speaker 2: and rounds three. Now, I did say with the Bruntage fight,

1081
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 2: I don't think he survives to round two because he

1082
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 2: was knocked out five weeks ago, and also the guy

1083
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:45,359
Speaker 2: he's fighting is an absolute tank. Toman Denverrel does tend

1084
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 2: to pay himself a little bit better. And also i'd

1085
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 2: expect him to get taken down here by Brundage in

1086
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:53,319
Speaker 2: round one. But after that round one, I think Tooman

1087
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:56,759
Speaker 2: Denbrel is going to come alive. I like his submission prop.

1088
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:58,760
Speaker 2: I make a submission prop in near plus three hundred,

1089
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 2: you can get as high as plus four hundred. But

1090
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 2: I also like his round two and round three plops

1091
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 2: plus six fifty and ten to one, respectively. So I

1092
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 2: may just go point one on each of those plus

1093
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 2: three ninety plus six fifty, ten to one.

1094
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 3: I may.

1095
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 2: I'm probably just gonna go with point one on each

1096
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,320
Speaker 2: of those, keep it relatively small, but also look for

1097
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:22,040
Speaker 2: a live bet on Tuman Denbrel after round one. I

1098
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 2: know a lot of people like Dirdan is a dog

1099
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:26,839
Speaker 2: this week, Billy, I think if you want to trade

1100
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 2: the fight, you take Dirden as a dog pre fight,

1101
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 2: and then search for Tuman den Morell live after round one.

1102
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna go ahead and take the favorite, but

1103
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 2: search for plus money ways for him to win this fight.

1104
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,239
Speaker 2: I don't think I mentioned it's seven years younger of

1105
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 2: four entre each advantage for Neom drun Garl Tuman den

1106
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 2: Morel as well. Do you agree with the late prop assessment?

1107
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 3: Do you like Durden? How you feel about this fight? Billy?

1108
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:51,399
Speaker 4: Yeah? Mostly agree with you. Tooman den Morel. His last

1109
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 4: name is actually fairly fanatic I don't know why people

1110
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 4: are struggling first name.

1111
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 3: People like to see the letters and they just panic.

1112
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 4: I don't. I think it's too many letters. Yeah, but

1113
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 4: with that said, hard to pronounce name, silly hat. So

1114
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 4: where I'm you know, I'm Jargall Tuman Deumberel. I have

1115
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 4: been the finish only market because Durden just kind of

1116
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:13,360
Speaker 4: decisions people if he's able to get it. But Touman

1117
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 4: Dunbrel Despuite, being named art of Knockout hilariously has six

1118
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 4: professional submission wins and only two by Knockout, which I

1119
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,240
Speaker 4: enjoy that. I don't know if it's ironic on purpose

1120
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 4: or he thinks he's I don't know, not my business.

1121
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 4: I could see Durden just shooting right into a front

1122
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 4: headlock submission something like that. So I've got the submission

1123
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 4: propit plus four hundred ish as well. Last thing on

1124
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:35,800
Speaker 4: this fight. I don't know if anyone listening. When you

1125
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 4: go on typology, there's a little link to the fighter's

1126
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:41,919
Speaker 4: Instagram page. Click Touman Dumberrell's link to the Instagram page.

1127
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 4: This dude seems awesome. He's just out here. He's got

1128
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 4: pictures of him in like traditional garb with eagles on

1129
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 4: his shoulders in front of the T Mobile arena. He

1130
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:53,840
Speaker 4: also seems to have recently graduated college, where he showed

1131
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 4: up in like some warrior dress to do Like, dude

1132
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,719
Speaker 4: just seems dope. Like I like Cody Durdan well enough,

1133
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 4: but you can't compete with the aura of too mondommerel

1134
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:06,840
Speaker 4: art of Knockout and his silly hats eagles and I

1135
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 4: don't mean metaphorically. He has actual eagles on his shoulders

1136
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 4: and like every third pick, it's great.

1137
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:14,280
Speaker 2: I feel like him and Sumid Ergy would you be buds.

1138
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:19,000
Speaker 2: I don't know why they're from. Yeah, it's about eagle.

1139
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:21,320
Speaker 2: They could just hang out, play with their eagles, be

1140
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 2: best friends. I hope they meet one another on this

1141
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 2: card and a lifelong butting friendship grows out of it.

1142
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:31,319
Speaker 2: Maybe a buddy cop comedy uh in Chinese theaters they

1143
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 2: could They could figure something out between the two of them,

1144
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 2: but hopefully if they've never linked up, I hope. I

1145
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 2: hope they get to with one another this weekend. They're

1146
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 2: also fighting out about the same part of the cards.

1147
00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 2: They may be warming up together. Maybe they hang out,

1148
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:43,879
Speaker 2: they both win, they hang out after Yeah, looking forward

1149
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 2: to that future friendship between a pair of Eagles. Let's

1150
00:53:47,200 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 2: move on to our final bets section. I know I

1151
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 2: did spoil one of yours with the Montes fight from earlier.

1152
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:56,280
Speaker 2: I do want to reiterate on your behalf that Montes

1153
00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 2: was in the best bets part of the card for

1154
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 2: you against Ricky Tercio's Do you have a price target

1155
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:05,200
Speaker 2: in mind where you would consider Montes a best bet too,

1156
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 2: and then after that point you would no longer consider

1157
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 2: him a best bet. You put minus one eighty five

1158
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 2: in the sheet, you like him up to minus two hundred?

1159
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:12,399
Speaker 2: What's your cut off there?

1160
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 4: To be honest, He's not a best bet, He's just

1161
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 4: a last bet.

1162
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:16,759
Speaker 3: Got a final bet.

1163
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 4: Anyway, But like, yeah, probably minus two hundred. I bet

1164
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 4: him so early in the week and kind of just

1165
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:23,680
Speaker 4: didn't think too much about it, but wanted to include

1166
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 4: it for podcast listeners who did not check out the

1167
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 4: luck ratings. Yeah, that's about it. Not a hugely confident

1168
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 4: pick for me.

1169
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:33,120
Speaker 2: Fight that I had the fewest takes on. It is

1170
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 2: a pure pass for me. My moneyline projection makes this

1171
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:37,880
Speaker 2: about a coin flip, But I didn't show any value

1172
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:40,880
Speaker 2: from a proper perspective, and I found it difficult to handicap.

1173
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:44,800
Speaker 2: So I'm curious how you ended up confident in Michael

1174
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:47,360
Speaker 2: Johnson this weekend. He's about minus one twenty three currently.

1175
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 2: It does seem like the money line is moving in though,

1176
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:52,319
Speaker 2: and you're willing to wait for the best available number.

1177
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 2: He's two inches taller, he has a three inch reach advantages,

1178
00:54:54,960 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 2: He's two years older. But it does seem like damage wise,

1179
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:00,719
Speaker 2: Drew Dover maybe isn't a worse p in terms of

1180
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:02,839
Speaker 2: his durability. If you went back a couple of years ago,

1181
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 2: that would not have been the case. But Dober has

1182
00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:08,759
Speaker 2: been knocked out several times of late Kotin, three of

1183
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 2: his last six. It seems like his durability may be gone.

1184
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:15,719
Speaker 2: So is it just Michael Johnson's the better fighter and

1185
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:18,239
Speaker 2: the durability is relatively even if not favors him at

1186
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 2: this point. He does have the better stats one point

1187
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:24,879
Speaker 2: four to zero point two strike differential at distance, also

1188
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 2: spends more of his time at distance, so the stats

1189
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:30,760
Speaker 2: say Johnson's better. It seems like you might think Johnson's

1190
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 2: in a better spot despite being the older man here.

1191
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:35,360
Speaker 2: Where do you like him starting at in terms of

1192
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:35,879
Speaker 2: price point.

1193
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's not as much older as I would have

1194
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 4: guessed coming into this week. He seems way older than

1195
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:43,279
Speaker 4: Drew Dober. It's like a two year age gap, which

1196
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:46,120
Speaker 4: at this point, and given the mileage and damage on

1197
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 4: Drew Dober, like Michael Johnson is effectively the younger slash

1198
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 4: fresher fighter somehow in this fight, which seems weird to

1199
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 4: say about a thirty nine year old. If he beats

1200
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 4: Drew Dober, he will have tied the longest winning streak

1201
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 4: in his career. In his UFC career dates back to

1202
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:04,360
Speaker 4: like nineteen ninety four or something somewhere around there. But

1203
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:06,399
Speaker 4: I thought for sure you'd be on Doverer just because

1204
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:09,439
Speaker 4: of the line movement in his direction despite public picks

1205
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 4: going fifty to fifty. I'm waiting a little bit. I'd

1206
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 4: like to see a plus in front of the number

1207
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,320
Speaker 4: with Johnson. But if we get, if we get like

1208
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:20,319
Speaker 4: Pickum or better basically so minus one ten, I will

1209
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 4: have at least a little bit on Johnson. And if

1210
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 4: it moves much beyond that, I think that's where I'm

1211
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:27,839
Speaker 4: gonna jump in. He's just considerably less washed than Drew

1212
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 4: Dober at this point.

1213
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to see specifically where I have the line,

1214
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:35,239
Speaker 2: just so I want to make sure there's no like

1215
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 2: price target which I would jump in on Johnson. I

1216
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:39,279
Speaker 2: would take Johnson about minus one ten I guess minus

1217
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:42,319
Speaker 2: one of five. I would be in him same Yeah,

1218
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:44,120
Speaker 2: so I think I'm kind of in agreement with you.

1219
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:47,680
Speaker 2: If the market gets there, I would jump in on Johnson.

1220
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:50,400
Speaker 2: But where it is currently, I'm not all that interested.

1221
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:53,400
Speaker 2: The fight that I'm most interested in from a market

1222
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 2: perspective this week and technically my best bet, and I'm

1223
00:56:57,280 --> 00:57:00,480
Speaker 2: aware of what I'm doing here. Cody garb is the

1224
00:57:00,560 --> 00:57:02,840
Speaker 2: public dog of the week. I get the argument I

1225
00:57:02,920 --> 00:57:05,960
Speaker 2: get looking at the tape, I get stylistically not being

1226
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:10,440
Speaker 2: confident in Long Zhao, But everybody is on Cody Dirdham

1227
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:13,440
Speaker 2: this week. My betting splits, he's seventy one percent on topology.

1228
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 2: Across the three data samples, he's closer to sixty three

1229
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 2: percent the betting splits. People are taking him more often

1230
00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 2: than not, and yet Long Zhao remains about a minus

1231
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 2: one sixty favorite. This is exactly what my model is

1232
00:57:27,200 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 2: designed to catch, in my opinion, is fights where everybody's

1233
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 2: on one side and the betting market says, yeah, we're

1234
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:35,520
Speaker 2: good where we are with this guy is the favorite,

1235
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 2: even though everybody's betting the underdog now. Xiao is seven

1236
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 2: years younger, he has a five inch reach advantage, and

1237
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 2: I have not liked Cody's physicality since moving up to

1238
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 2: one thirty five. I bet Davison Figuredo to finish him.

1239
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:51,480
Speaker 2: He ended up doing it. I bet against him in

1240
00:57:51,520 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 2: his last fight. I know Cody won. I just know

1241
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:57,320
Speaker 2: he did lose to Howny Marcello's I believe I bet

1242
00:57:57,360 --> 00:57:58,800
Speaker 2: against him in that fight as well.

1243
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 3: I've been waiting for Cody to get finished.

1244
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 2: Though we thought that chin was shot at one twenty five,

1245
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:06,440
Speaker 2: it's looked a little bit better since he moved up

1246
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:08,360
Speaker 2: to one thirty five. I think this is the fight

1247
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 2: where it cost him. I think Jao is going to

1248
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:13,800
Speaker 2: bring a firefight out of Cody Garbrant that we have

1249
00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 2: not seen in a while. I know Garbrant wants to

1250
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 2: be a little bit more conservative, a little bit more

1251
00:58:18,080 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 2: calculated now because he knows he needs to protect the chin.

1252
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to be capable of doing

1253
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 2: it here because Jiao is going to be in his face,

1254
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 2: forcing the fight and potentially mixing in some grappling as well.

1255
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:31,480
Speaker 2: We'll see if Cody grapples here, because I think that's

1256
00:58:31,520 --> 00:58:34,320
Speaker 2: how he wins the fight. If he proactively wrestles, I

1257
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 2: think he is the better grappler. But Jao is just

1258
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 2: going to do everything and force a pace and get

1259
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 2: in his face and cause both guys to take a

1260
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:44,480
Speaker 2: bunch of damage. So I make Joo about minus two

1261
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 2: hundred currently listed minus one sixty. I think, like Billy

1262
00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:49,720
Speaker 2: said with the Johnson fight, I think this is a

1263
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 2: fight where you could potentially wait on Joao if everybody's

1264
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:53,920
Speaker 2: going to be betting Garbran, I think he could maybe

1265
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:56,360
Speaker 2: bet on Joo and get closer to minus one fifty

1266
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:58,760
Speaker 2: minus one forty on fight day. So I'm going to

1267
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 2: wait on the money line play. But what I will

1268
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:03,720
Speaker 2: lock in now is is inside the distance prop. I

1269
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:05,920
Speaker 2: make that closer to plus two forty. You can get

1270
00:59:05,960 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 2: as high as plus two seventy five. I also like

1271
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 2: his ko prop as well. I think this is the

1272
00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 2: spot where Cody Garbrant finally gets finished and we question

1273
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:17,680
Speaker 2: whether he should keep doing this for very much longer. Again,

1274
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:21,360
Speaker 2: sevent years younger five inch each advantage for Longsao market

1275
00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:23,600
Speaker 2: all over Cody Garbner at this week. Billy, I believe

1276
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 2: you were on Garbrant as well. Please explain the technical

1277
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 2: analysis that other people have seen that has led to

1278
00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:35,000
Speaker 2: betting on Garbrant, because again, I'm not picking this because

1279
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:37,120
Speaker 2: of technique or because of takee. I'm picking this purely

1280
00:59:37,120 --> 00:59:39,360
Speaker 2: because of the market handicaps. So what is the argument

1281
00:59:39,400 --> 00:59:40,200
Speaker 2: for Garbrant this week?

1282
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:43,479
Speaker 4: So for me, it wasn't even a tactical thing because

1283
00:59:43,480 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 4: I bet this one on Monday based on some luck

1284
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:48,120
Speaker 4: rating stuff I'll talk about in a second Shortama like

1285
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 4: skills standpoint, He's lost to guys like Davison, Figurato, Kaikara, France,

1286
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:54,880
Speaker 4: Rob font You know these are some of his last losses,

1287
00:59:55,240 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 4: top five ISCH guys, and he's beat Brian Kellerher, Trevor Jones,

1288
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:02,240
Speaker 4: just half ilis show in this like later Savid, you

1289
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:05,880
Speaker 4: of his career. Long Shao I think fits more comfortably

1290
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:08,360
Speaker 4: into that second group in terms of ability, Not that

1291
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:12,000
Speaker 4: that means super you know too much. But the big

1292
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:14,120
Speaker 4: thing for me, Jah Long has been one of the

1293
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:17,320
Speaker 4: luckiest fighters to even be in the UFC, lost to

1294
01:00:17,440 --> 01:00:20,120
Speaker 4: Christian Kiona is on the Condendi Harias in two thousand

1295
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:22,240
Speaker 4: and one. Two thousand and three, they bring him on

1296
01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:24,919
Speaker 4: to the Road to the UFC program. Wins a split

1297
01:00:25,000 --> 01:00:27,680
Speaker 4: decision in the opening round, wins a majority decision in

1298
01:00:27,720 --> 01:00:30,280
Speaker 4: the second round. The final is supposed to be a

1299
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:32,280
Speaker 4: road to UFC fighter, is not supposed to be a

1300
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:35,040
Speaker 4: UFC fight. That event got canceled. They moved it to

1301
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 4: the UFC proper and he lost a split decision there,

1302
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:40,880
Speaker 4: which unlucky to lose a split decision, but lucky that

1303
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:43,280
Speaker 4: that was UFC proper because he's now on a UFC

1304
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 4: contract in the promotion, where otherwise by virtue of losing

1305
01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 4: that he would not have been. And that has gone

1306
01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:50,920
Speaker 4: one in one sense with a win over Kuaing Lee,

1307
01:00:51,040 --> 01:00:54,680
Speaker 4: a lost to Sue Young U, but just by virtue

1308
01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 4: of I'm not sure that we know he's the UFC

1309
01:00:57,040 --> 01:00:59,160
Speaker 4: level at this point, and Cody Garbrant, for all of

1310
01:00:59,240 --> 01:01:01,200
Speaker 4: his faults at this point in this career, he's gonna

1311
01:01:02,080 --> 01:01:04,840
Speaker 4: send back guys like that, I think. So not a

1312
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:07,680
Speaker 4: hugely confident pick for me. I bet it quick seeing

1313
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:09,640
Speaker 4: that I thought the line would move the direction that

1314
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:12,640
Speaker 4: you're seeing. But if I'm getting plus money, on Guarbine,

1315
01:01:12,680 --> 01:01:13,919
Speaker 4: I kind of have to take it in the spot.

1316
01:01:16,200 --> 01:01:18,240
Speaker 3: I think we hit all thirteen fights. Is that correct?

1317
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:20,960
Speaker 3: That is that? Is that the top card top to bottom.

1318
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:22,000
Speaker 3: I believe for this week right.

1319
01:01:22,680 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 4: I'm trying to see, Yeah, you've got turs, I believe,

1320
01:01:25,280 --> 01:01:25,880
Speaker 4: so we did it.

1321
01:01:26,320 --> 01:01:29,280
Speaker 2: Any other props or DFS takes or anything for this

1322
01:01:29,320 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 2: week take down props, DFS bets or DFDFS plays, cheaper

1323
01:01:33,320 --> 01:01:36,160
Speaker 2: guys you're keying on. I know you mentioned Dante Johnson

1324
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:39,400
Speaker 2: in nine of your ten lineups. Any any consistent underdogs

1325
01:01:39,440 --> 01:01:39,960
Speaker 2: you're targeting.

1326
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:42,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we're I mean just looking at our shape. Man,

1327
01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:45,160
Speaker 4: you both had a ton of underdogs. The ones that

1328
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 4: we're both on I think are all really good DFS plays.

1329
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 4: So Fajeda font Font more of like a cash game

1330
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 4: to survive at the end, but Fajda undergoes are really good,

1331
01:01:55,360 --> 01:01:56,960
Speaker 4: like if they win, it's probably gonna be a huge

1332
01:01:56,960 --> 01:01:59,080
Speaker 4: score kind of thing. RDR, I think is a great

1333
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,560
Speaker 4: DFS play because of that, I can mix and match

1334
01:02:01,560 --> 01:02:03,200
Speaker 4: all those cheap guys and you can play all the

1335
01:02:03,280 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 4: Dante Johnson, Luke Fernandez, Max Holloway type play.

1336
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:08,680
Speaker 2: Do you ever go super contrarian and go way under

1337
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:11,120
Speaker 2: salary and pick like if there's a card where you

1338
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:13,480
Speaker 2: like a bunch of underdogs, do you ever pick you know,

1339
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:15,760
Speaker 2: do you ever go several thousand under salary and pick

1340
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:16,800
Speaker 2: like majority dogs.

1341
01:02:17,720 --> 01:02:20,080
Speaker 4: I have of my ten lineups, one of them is

1342
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 4: nineteen hundred under salary and one of eleven hundred. And

1343
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:24,840
Speaker 4: that's just glancing. There might be a little bit more

1344
01:02:24,880 --> 01:02:28,680
Speaker 4: than that, not even just trying to be a contrarian,

1345
01:02:28,760 --> 01:02:30,320
Speaker 4: just trying to pick the six guys I think you

1346
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:33,000
Speaker 4: know have a good shot at winning. But I I

1347
01:02:33,280 --> 01:02:35,720
Speaker 4: use the optimizer over Fantasy Labs, where I set the

1348
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:39,440
Speaker 4: projections and I basically set rules like I just want

1349
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:42,480
Speaker 4: at least two of these underdogs and one of Olive

1350
01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:44,760
Speaker 4: or Halloway. So unless you go on hundred percent Holloway,

1351
01:02:44,760 --> 01:02:47,320
Speaker 4: you're gonna get some lineups that leave some salary on

1352
01:02:47,360 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 4: the table. But to your point, yeah, no one else

1353
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:51,680
Speaker 4: plays it that way, so you get some contrarion. And

1354
01:02:51,760 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 4: it wouldn't shock me if you know two or three

1355
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:56,760
Speaker 4: of these underdogs come through and the best score comes

1356
01:02:56,800 --> 01:02:58,320
Speaker 4: from guys who are cheaper anyway.

1357
01:02:58,680 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I highly recommend use the tools over at Fantasy Labs.

1358
01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:03,320
Speaker 2: I know Billy builds out the projections for that, but

1359
01:03:03,440 --> 01:03:05,960
Speaker 2: I use it every single week. I'm usually playing like

1360
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:09,480
Speaker 2: thirty to forty lineups cheaper, cheaper tournaments. Typically I've met

1361
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:12,120
Speaker 2: one or two that are, you know, the the fifteen

1362
01:03:12,200 --> 01:03:14,840
Speaker 2: dollars tournament, but you know, for me, it's like a

1363
01:03:14,920 --> 01:03:18,040
Speaker 2: quarter unit to a half unit investment betting two hundred

1364
01:03:18,040 --> 01:03:21,160
Speaker 2: and fifty bucks, five hundred bucks and dfs for the week.

1365
01:03:21,240 --> 01:03:24,760
Speaker 2: But to that point, I'm I'm using our optimizer on

1366
01:03:24,960 --> 01:03:27,560
Speaker 2: Fantasy Labs to ensure that I have at least one

1367
01:03:27,680 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 2: unique fighter in every lineup that I'm getting. The rule

1368
01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:33,040
Speaker 2: parameters for building out lineups that I want, I've found

1369
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:36,120
Speaker 2: them super valuable and profitable over time. Never never cashed

1370
01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:39,480
Speaker 2: the big GPP yet, but I've been profitable over the

1371
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:42,080
Speaker 2: past few years just playing around our DraftKings for the

1372
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:47,640
Speaker 2: MMA slates. Unfortunately, the late swap issues continue to persist

1373
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:50,680
Speaker 2: sometimes as we get fight cancelations. But that is the

1374
01:03:50,760 --> 01:03:53,360
Speaker 2: loan anxiety surrounding real quick.

1375
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:56,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, before we before we move on, that's a really

1376
01:03:56,400 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 4: good point. I wanted to say something about that. Given

1377
01:03:59,200 --> 01:04:02,560
Speaker 4: the weird line move on the undergoes a fight keep

1378
01:04:02,640 --> 01:04:05,640
Speaker 4: and be careful about that one for dfs because we've

1379
01:04:05,680 --> 01:04:08,600
Speaker 4: seen fights with lead line movements get scrapped. Last time,

1380
01:04:08,640 --> 01:04:10,560
Speaker 4: they announced it before the event started, so you had

1381
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:12,680
Speaker 4: a chance to switch. But like if you're not sitting

1382
01:04:12,720 --> 01:04:14,920
Speaker 4: on your phone at four fifty five Eastern, I'd be

1383
01:04:15,080 --> 01:04:17,720
Speaker 4: very careful about any lineups that include that fight.

1384
01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:20,320
Speaker 2: And sometimes they just start the card and decide to

1385
01:04:20,360 --> 01:04:23,600
Speaker 2: announce it and then tell you cancelation right after it starts.

1386
01:04:23,720 --> 01:04:23,919
Speaker 3: YEP.

1387
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:26,240
Speaker 2: I always enjoy when they do that, But that'll do

1388
01:04:26,320 --> 01:04:28,760
Speaker 2: it for you. See Betting preview for UFC three twenty six.

1389
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:31,640
Speaker 2: You can find more UFC three twenty six content for

1390
01:04:31,720 --> 01:04:34,560
Speaker 2: both Billy and myself on Action network dot com. And

1391
01:04:34,560 --> 01:04:36,280
Speaker 2: if you'd like to tail some of the bets that

1392
01:04:36,320 --> 01:04:38,520
Speaker 2: we discussed on today's show, look for the click link

1393
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:41,200
Speaker 2: both in the podcast and a video description, or visit

1394
01:04:41,320 --> 01:04:44,760
Speaker 2: Action network dot com slash bet now. Don't forget to

1395
01:04:44,800 --> 01:04:46,800
Speaker 2: download the free aword winning Action work Gap and sign

1396
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:50,320
Speaker 2: up for Action pro formmediate access to expert picks and analysis.

1397
01:04:50,800 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 2: Best and luck with our your bets this weekend. Enjoy

1398
01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:54,440
Speaker 2: the violence, Thank you for listening. We'll see you back

1399
01:04:54,440 --> 01:04:58,439
Speaker 2: here for Josh Emmett Kevin Vlajos Fight Night next week.

1400
01:05:09,200 --> 01:05:13,680
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1401
01:05:13,760 --> 01:05:16,520
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1402
01:05:16,560 --> 01:05:19,640
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler