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Speaker 1: I'm not going to answer the question because because the question,

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Speaker 1: the question is rational. Left.

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Speaker 2: Who is on your list?

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Speaker 3: Joe?

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Speaker 2: Who is on your right?

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Speaker 1: Gentlemen, I think this We're not going to We have

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Speaker 1: ended this segment. We're going to move on to the

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Speaker 1: second segment. That was really a productive segment, wasn't it.

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Speaker 1: Keep yapping, man. The people understand, Joe, forty seven years,

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Speaker 1: you've done nothing.

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Speaker 4: They understand. All right, Remember this final debate of the

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty presidential campaign, and remember all the barbs both

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Speaker 4: Trump and Biden tossed during that campaign. Well, sparks may

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Speaker 4: fly again between these same two candidates if the polls

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Speaker 4: are right and they do indeed become the respective nominees

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Speaker 4: for their parties. Several third party candidates may jump into

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Speaker 4: the race, which would mix it up, But voters don't

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Speaker 4: seem excited about any of the current options. How did

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Speaker 4: we wind up in this groundhog day election cycle?

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Speaker 5: Like a lot of people still don't believe that Trump

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Speaker 5: and Biden are going to be the nominee despite all

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Speaker 5: the evidence we have that they probably are going to be.

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Speaker 4: That's my colleague Josh Green. He and I wrote about

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Speaker 4: how voters and donors are feeling about another Trump Biden matchup.

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Speaker 4: It's a big take from Bloomberg News and iHeartRadio. I'm

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Speaker 4: Nancy Cook today. Who's ready for the Biden Trump rematch? Anyone? Hey, Josh,

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Speaker 4: thanks for coming on the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to be here with you.

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Speaker 4: You and I just wrote this piece called the Election

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Speaker 4: No One Wants.

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Speaker 5: That's right, because it's shapen up to be two of

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Speaker 5: the most unpopular presidential nominees in probably American history, if

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Speaker 5: the polls are to believed, which show Trump and Biden

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Speaker 5: both winning handily, and yet Americans young and old are

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Speaker 5: tired of them, don't like them, want somebody younger, want

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Speaker 5: somebody different, And as we concluded from our reporting, they're

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Speaker 5: probably not.

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Speaker 2: Going to get it.

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Speaker 4: So what does the polling show us, Josh, tell me

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Speaker 4: a little bit about you know what you found when

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Speaker 4: we were reporting out the piece.

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Speaker 5: The polling showed that Biden and Trump are both very

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Speaker 5: unpopular with the opposite party and also pretty unpopular with

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Speaker 5: independent people too. Republicans are still basically okay with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 5: Self identified Democrats are still basically okay with Joe Biden,

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Speaker 5: at least in terms of saying we'll support him in

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Speaker 5: the twenty twenty four election. But if you probe a

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Speaker 5: little deeper, even Democrats say, would you prefer a different nominee?

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Speaker 5: Would you prefer somebody younger? A majority of those Democratic

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Speaker 5: voters say yes, we would. And I think that gets

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Speaker 5: to the lack of enthusiasm among all American voters. That's

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Speaker 5: kind of the beating heart of our piece, this overwhelming

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Speaker 5: desire for different choices that they're not going to get.

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Speaker 4: And so what happened to these other choices? I mean,

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Speaker 4: I know on the Democratic side, you know there's Representative

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Speaker 4: Jean Phillips from Minnesota. We have the activist professor of

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Speaker 4: Cornell West who's running as an independent. We have Robert

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Speaker 4: Kennedy Junior, who's a former environmental lawyer turned major anti vaxer.

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Speaker 4: On the Republican side, there's Nicki Haley, Ron de Santis,

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Speaker 4: vivk Ramaswami, Chris Christy. What happened to all these different people?

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Speaker 5: The thing we kind of concluded that really jumped out

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Speaker 5: to me in the reporting that I hadn't appreciated going

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Speaker 5: in was that the story in each party is kind

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Speaker 5: of different. On the Republican side, what prevented a challenger

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Speaker 5: to Trump. It was really this kind of bottom up

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Speaker 5: energy that rank and file, grassroots voters who are Republicans

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Speaker 5: still like Trump and they don't really like anybody else

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Speaker 5: you can add up and we did all the supporters

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Speaker 5: for Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswami, and it still

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Speaker 5: doesn't constitute a majority.

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Speaker 2: And as much as.

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Speaker 5: Republican donors Wall Street people want somebody other than Trump,

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Speaker 5: they just haven't been able to overcome his popularity with

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Speaker 5: a base. No matter how much money they stuff into

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Speaker 5: super packs for challengers like Haley in DeSantis, nothing is

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Speaker 5: over until we run through the primary season. At least

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Speaker 5: at this point, it doesn't look like Trump is going

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Speaker 5: to have a real serious challenger.

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Speaker 4: So that's the story with Trump. You know, Republicans just

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Speaker 4: haven't been able to quit him. What did we learn

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Speaker 4: about Biden?

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Speaker 5: Well, the interesting thing with Democrats is that they've essentially

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Speaker 5: had kind of the opposite dynamic. From the moment Biden

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Speaker 5: got into office, the people at the top of the

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Speaker 5: Democratic establishment, the leaders in the party, basically decided that

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Speaker 5: he is their best shot to win again in twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty four, and they kind of rallied around him. You

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Speaker 5: didn't have any real blue chip challengers that decided to

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Speaker 5: run in the Democratic primaries, and so you're left with

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Speaker 5: these kind of gadfly candidates like Dean Phillips of Minnesota,

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Speaker 5: who you mentioned, who were you going to run in

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Speaker 5: one or two primaries, but don't constitute a serious challenge

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Speaker 5: to Biden, despite the fact that so many rank and

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Speaker 5: file Democratic voters are unhappy with him, They're unhappy with

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Speaker 5: the economy, they're unhappy with his age, they like different

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Speaker 5: and better choices. Doesn't look like they're going to get it,

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Speaker 5: and that could be a potential big problem for Democrats.

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Speaker 4: And I think so much in the reporting that we

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Speaker 4: learned was that really Democrats are sold on this idea

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Speaker 4: that Biden is the only one who has beat Trump

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Speaker 4: and therefore they have to stick with him despite the

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Speaker 4: concerns about his age and the economy. I was so

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Speaker 4: struck by that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was too.

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Speaker 5: And you know, when you hear the White House lay

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Speaker 5: it out, or hear kind of pro Biden polsters and

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Speaker 5: strategises lay it out, it isn't crazy if the opponent

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Speaker 5: is Donald Trump. Because Trump, despite the fact that he's

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Speaker 5: sort of subsided a little bit. I think from the

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Speaker 5: news cycle in a way that's made people focus on Biden.

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Speaker 5: Once he comes roaring back, I do think that his

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Speaker 5: negatives are going to rise and people instead of focusing

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Speaker 5: on I don't like Biden, I don't like the economy.

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Speaker 5: It's going to become more of a choice than a referendum.

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Speaker 5: That's certainly the hope for Democrats.

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Speaker 4: One of the most interesting phrases in the reporting I

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Speaker 4: found was this idea of double haters. It's voters who

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Speaker 4: actually hate both of them.

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Speaker 2: Tell me about that, Josh, Yeah, so that was funny.

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Speaker 5: That was a term I first heard in the twenty

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Speaker 5: sixteen cycle when I was hanging out with the Trump

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Speaker 5: data team Polsters, Me and another BusinessWeek reporter got invited

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Speaker 5: down to their Trump Data headquarters in San Antonio.

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Speaker 2: They had this sort of category of.

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Speaker 5: Voters, like ten or fifteen percent of the voters who

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Speaker 5: told Polsters they did not like Donald Trump, but they

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Speaker 5: also did not like Hillary Clinton. And yet if you

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Speaker 5: look at their voting records, like these people are going

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Speaker 5: to vote for one or the other, and so the

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Speaker 5: campaign dubbed them double haters. In the end, the very

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Speaker 5: kind of last week or so, James Comey came out

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Speaker 5: with all the Clinton email stuff, and the double haters

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Speaker 5: moved in mass.

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Speaker 2: To Donald Trump.

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Speaker 5: The interesting thing this time arounds you talk to polsters,

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Speaker 5: there's about four times as many double haters who disliked

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Speaker 5: both Trump and Biden then there were back in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 5: So to me, that was just a wonderful measure of

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Speaker 5: the kind of boiling dissatisfaction that so many people in

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Speaker 5: the American electorate have for the choice of candidates that

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Speaker 5: they're probably going.

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Speaker 2: To get next fall.

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Speaker 4: There have been several billionaires and Wall Street types of

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Speaker 4: way in the election in the last few weeks. Josh,

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Speaker 4: what have they been talking about?

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Speaker 2: This is really interesting.

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Speaker 5: Bloomberg had a great story on all the kind of

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Speaker 5: Wall Street heavyweights who suddenly have begun to panic and

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Speaker 5: express their own let's call it double hatred toward the

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Speaker 5: two candidates. You have them out publicly casting about for

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Speaker 5: an alternative, despite the fact that we're like a month

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Speaker 5: and a half away from primaries beginning, and that's not

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Speaker 5: remotely realistic. So you have Jamie Diamond, the CEO of

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Speaker 5: JP Morgan Chase, come out very publicly in support of

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Speaker 5: Nikki Haley and sort of encourage everybody, including liberal Democrats,

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Speaker 5: to get behind her. The other Wall Street big wig

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Speaker 5: was Mike Novograts, the CEO of the crypto firm Galaxy

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Speaker 5: Digital Holdings, who actually told Bloomberg Television that he'd met

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Speaker 5: with Haley that you also met with Dean Phillips was

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Speaker 5: really excited about Phillips, found him to be amazingly rational,

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Speaker 5: and yet Novograts called him Neil instead of Dean in

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Speaker 5: the Bloomberg interview. So clearly these guys are kind of

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Speaker 5: grasping for anybody who could possibly be an alternative to

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Speaker 5: Donald Trump or Joe Biden. To me, it's just another

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Speaker 5: striking example of the kind of cycle of denial that

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Speaker 5: I've experienced as a reporter talking to people about how

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Speaker 5: do you think the election shaping up? Who do you

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Speaker 5: think you're going to vote for? Like a lot of

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Speaker 5: people still don't believe that Trump and Biden are going

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Speaker 5: to be the nominee, despite all the evidence we have

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Speaker 5: that they probably are going to be.

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Speaker 4: And what's so interesting to me is we're basically weeks

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Speaker 4: away from the Iowa caucuses in January, and then the

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Speaker 4: New Hampshire primary comes shortly after that, and Trump is

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Speaker 4: so far ahead of his rivals in pull after poll.

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Speaker 4: He is pulling above fifty percent, close to sixty percent nationally,

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Speaker 4: And it's like, even though you know, Ron de Santas

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Speaker 4: and Nikki Hilly are kind of duking it out for

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Speaker 4: second place, they're still I need a thirty percentage points

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Speaker 4: behind Trump in the polls, and so it's almost like,

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Speaker 4: you know, who cares if they're duking it out. You know,

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Speaker 4: unless there's some catastrophe or healthcare on the part of Trump,

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Speaker 4: it seems likely that he will be the nominee.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And what's happened over the last year or so is,

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Speaker 5: you know, if you go back to January, she had

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Speaker 5: a big cover story on Ron DeSantis, who had just

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Speaker 5: gotten reelected and was super popular and was kind of

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Speaker 5: pulling neck and neck with Trump, and it looked like

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Speaker 5: he might be the guy to kind of knock off

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Speaker 5: Trump and become the nominique.

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Speaker 2: But what's happened over.

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Speaker 5: The last year is that his support is diminished in

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Speaker 5: all the non Trump candidates, Desantus, Haley, Chris Christy, you

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Speaker 5: name it, have cannibalized each other's support. So you'll have

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Speaker 5: somebody like DeSantis, who for a while was the clear

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Speaker 5: cut number two, has now fallen in the polls and

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Speaker 5: been replaced by Nikki Haley. You know, but she's, as

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Speaker 5: you say, she's no closer to knocking off Trump than

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Speaker 5: DeSantis was six or eight months ago.

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Speaker 4: And I also think two things happened for Trump and

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Speaker 4: Biden this year that really led to them being most

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Speaker 4: likely than nominees. With Trump, it was the legal challenges.

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Speaker 4: That first indictment out of New York for him really

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Speaker 4: energized the base. It had like the opposite effect that

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Speaker 4: I think people thought it would. People thought, oh, wow,

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Speaker 4: he's going to be so mired in legal troubles and

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Speaker 4: he won't be able to run. But actually it mobilized voters, Republicans,

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Speaker 4: primary voters. They coalesced around him and it really gave

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Speaker 4: him this huge boost. And then for Biden, I think

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Speaker 4: a lot of people thought maybe he wasn't a great president,

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Speaker 4: but Democrats had a good showing in the twenty two midterms.

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Speaker 4: Messages about democracy and Republicans trying to restrict abortion rights

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Speaker 4: really resonated with women voters and Democrats and they came

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Speaker 4: to the polls. And I think both of those two

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Speaker 4: events really helped both of these men.

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Speaker 2: That's a great point.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they were both the beneficiaries of an odd

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Speaker 5: and unexpected good fortune. Were you surprised as I was,

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Speaker 5: that when Trump was indicted and then reindicted and then reindicted,

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Speaker 5: that it didn't hurt his support more because I've seen

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Speaker 5: Poland going back years talking to Trump's and asking them like, hey,

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Speaker 5: do you support Trump? Like what could cause your support

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Speaker 5: to waiver? And a lot of those poll questions, like

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Speaker 5: a decent chunk of supporter to say, well, you know,

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Speaker 5: if it turns out he's convicted or and died or something,

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Speaker 5: you know, and then I may rethink my support. I

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Speaker 5: was kind of expecting a drop in support, and yet

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Speaker 5: I feel like kind of a chump for having believed that.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I was surprised. But I do remember talking with

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Speaker 4: a Republican source the day of that first indictment, and

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Speaker 4: this was someone who was really excited about Ron DeSantis

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Speaker 4: at the time, and the person said, you know, this

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Speaker 4: has just supercharged Trump's candidacy because so many Republicans viewed

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Speaker 4: those charges out of New York as you know, sham

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Speaker 4: or overblown. And Trump also really turned all of the indictments,

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Speaker 4: all of his legal troubles into one big thing where

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Speaker 4: he is fighting on behalf of people. He is a victim,

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Speaker 4: he is fighting for you. He's taking the legal challenges,

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Speaker 4: so you don't you know, he's been sort of masterful

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Speaker 4: at turning that on a head. I've seen him do

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Speaker 4: it in rallies and events and it really rallies people.

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Speaker 4: And I think that that has really supercharged his candidacy.

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Speaker 4: When we come back with Trump's surprising dominance in the polls,

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Speaker 4: should Democrats look for an alternative candidate?

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Speaker 3: The twenty twenty four presidential campaign has seen some comings

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Speaker 3: and goings in recent days. While Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips

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Speaker 3: has jumped into the Democratic primary, Phillips is officially challenging

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Speaker 3: President Biden for the party's nomination, and he ended the

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Speaker 3: race because he's concerned about polling numbers and a potential

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Speaker 3: second Trump presidency.

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Speaker 4: So, Josh, has this ever happened before in US history

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Speaker 4: where basically somebody lost an election, a president lost an

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Speaker 4: election and then came back and ran again.

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Speaker 5: It's happened once that we're aware of, or an incumbent

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Speaker 5: president lost ran against the same opponent four years later

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Speaker 5: in return to the White House. And of course we

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Speaker 5: all remember that was when Grover Cleveland faced off against

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Speaker 5: Benjamin Harrison.

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Speaker 2: It's happened before that was and.

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Speaker 4: That was late late eighteen hundreds, right.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that was in eighteen ninety two, so long before

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Speaker 5: the advent of public polling. Who knows if they were

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Speaker 5: double hated. The bigger point is this is this is

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Speaker 5: just extremely unusual. Hasn't happened in America in the last

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Speaker 5: one hundred and thirty years, And so yeah, it's a

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Speaker 5: weird election and a weird election cycle for everybody. I

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Speaker 5: think that's part of the dissatisfaction.

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Speaker 4: And on the Democratic side, why do you think that

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Speaker 4: Democrats settled on Biden as the nominee despite what we've

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Speaker 4: talked about already. He has a low approval rating. You know,

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Speaker 4: voters have very persistent questions about his age.

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Speaker 5: In talking to Democrats, both around Biden and just sort

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Speaker 5: of Democrats generally, I think there are two things that happened. One,

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Speaker 5: a good number of Americans really did expect Biden once

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Speaker 5: he was elected to only serve one term and to

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Speaker 5: kind of voluntarily leave at the end of his first term.

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Speaker 5: He had said During the campaign, there was a rally

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Speaker 5: he had where he described himself as a quote transition figure,

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Speaker 5: and a lot of Democrats took that to me, you know,

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Speaker 5: I'm a transition between Trump and the next generation of

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Speaker 5: Democratic politicians, and they thought that he would sort of

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Speaker 5: pass the baton in twenty twenty four. Well he didn't,

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Speaker 5: and that creates the second problem, And the other reason

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Speaker 5: that Biden is here is that if he were to

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Speaker 5: step down, there would be a very messy Democratic primary.

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Speaker 5: Kamala Harris, a black woman, is the vice president. You

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Speaker 5: would expect her to be deferred to. A lot of

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Speaker 5: people would, but she isn't a very popular politician. She's

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Speaker 5: less popular than Joe Biden. And there are a lot

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Speaker 5: of other ambitious rising Democrats who would run for that role,

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Speaker 5: whether it's you know, Pete Buda Judge or Gavin Newsom

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Speaker 5: in California, Wes Moore and Maryland Roy Cooper in North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: There would be a big scrum and a big fight.

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Speaker 5: And I think that a lot of folks worry that

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Speaker 5: having that kind of intra party family feud would weaken

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Speaker 5: Democrats ahead of what is going to be a very

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Speaker 5: important election in twenty twenty four, where Donald Trump could

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Speaker 5: conceivably come back and win re election. A lot of

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Speaker 5: Democrats don't want to have that fight, and so they

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Speaker 5: kind of bite their tongue and cautiously get behind Joe Biden.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's sort of what happened in the last election

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Speaker 4: in twenty twenty there was such a crowded Democratic primary.

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Speaker 4: I don't think anyone thought that he would end up

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Speaker 4: as the front runner. Of course, like COVID I think

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Speaker 4: really changed it, and there was some internal party calculus

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Speaker 4: of like wanting to more moderate rather than a very

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Speaker 4: liberal candidate. But they sort of already went through that

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Speaker 4: the last cycle.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 5: But there were also, if you're huge, fights over race, gender,

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Speaker 5: the size of government, whether we should triple the federal

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Speaker 5: budget for Medicare for all. All of this stuff played

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Speaker 5: out during the Democratic primaries in a way that I

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Speaker 5: think made a lot of people nervous about rerunning that

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Speaker 5: kind of a race in twenty twenty three twenty twenty

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Speaker 5: four primaries. Democrats are kind of clinging to power, and

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Speaker 5: do think a lot of them. I think that Joe

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Speaker 5: Biden is still ill the guy best able to unify

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Speaker 5: the Democratic coalition against Donald Trump. It's getting kind of

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Speaker 5: harder to believe that if you look at the polls

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Speaker 5: and you see his declining support on issues like the

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Speaker 5: economy and his age, a portion of black and Latino

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Speaker 5: voters moving over to support Republicans. One of the reasons

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Speaker 5: that he's likely overwhelmingly likely to be a Democratic nominee

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Speaker 5: is that in the end, you know, people just deferred

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Speaker 5: to the idea that we really can't figure out a

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Speaker 5: way to ast him. He hasn't left voluntarily, and so

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Speaker 5: we're just going to have to go with him one

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Speaker 5: more cycle.

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Speaker 4: And what I think is also so interesting is that,

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Speaker 4: you know, although he suggested he would be a transitional

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Speaker 4: figure in the twenty twenty election, the thing is is

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Speaker 4: that Joe Biden has wanted to be president for years.

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Speaker 4: He has run for president several times, and I think that,

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Speaker 4: you know, inside the Biden White House, there is a

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Speaker 4: feeling that he is a much better president than he

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Speaker 4: gets credit for. I think he has a little bit

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Speaker 4: of a chip on his shoulder about that and thinks

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Speaker 4: he's doing a better job, and people thinking that's a

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Speaker 4: great point.

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Speaker 5: Look, you don't rise to the level of president of

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Speaker 5: the United States without being a wildly ambitious and self

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Speaker 5: confident human being, and especially somebody like Biden who's run

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Speaker 5: and lost and run and lost and run and lost

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Speaker 5: and become almost a punch line and then you ascend

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Speaker 5: to the Oval Office. People like that just don't kind

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Speaker 5: of willingly give up that kind of power. And yeah,

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Speaker 5: I think the fact is Biden has passed a huge

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Speaker 5: stimulust He passed, you know, the IRA, He's kind of

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Speaker 5: led this. I think what the White House hopes will

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Speaker 5: be this this renaissance in Middle America of reshoring, manufacturing

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Speaker 5: and building out the chip industry, building up the green economy.

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Speaker 5: He has a lot of tangible accomplishments that any president

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Speaker 5: would love to have, you know. So, I think if

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Speaker 5: you're Biden, the thought running through your head has to

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Speaker 5: be why wouldn't.

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Speaker 2: I run again?

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Speaker 4: Just on the Republican side, I know we've talked, you know,

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Speaker 4: a little bit about how Trump ended up being such

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Speaker 4: a dominant figure again, but have you been surprised that Josh,

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Speaker 4: given his legal challenges we haven't even talked about January sixth,

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Speaker 4: He had a reputation of having a very chaotic leadership

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Speaker 4: style in the White House, But yet he is still

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Speaker 4: the dominant Republican dating back to twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 5: Among other things, he completely broke the mold for how

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Speaker 5: a one term president behaves, and as a result, he

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Speaker 5: has a different profile than other one term presidents. You know, historically,

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Speaker 5: if you run for president, win, serve a term, and

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Speaker 5: are then defeated, you know, it's kind of a mark

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Speaker 5: of shame. Trump, you know, by any historical standard, should

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Speaker 5: have expected the same treatment, and yet literally refused to leave.

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Speaker 2: The White House.

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Speaker 5: You had him claiming falsely that he'd actually won the

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Speaker 5: election and had him stolen from him. That it became

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Speaker 5: a matter of faith among you a fairly sizable chunk

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Speaker 5: of the Republican activist base, such that the party couldn't

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Speaker 5: move beyond him, and no serious, ambitious presidential alternative really

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Speaker 5: asserted themselves in a way that caused the party to

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Speaker 5: kind of want to move on. And Trump, who's so

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Speaker 5: good at getting attention and so good at putting himself

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Speaker 5: in the limelight and making himself the center of everything,

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Speaker 5: has just been able to do that NonStop, and as

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Speaker 5: a result, nobody else has broken through. And it sure

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Speaker 5: looks like Trump is going to be the nominee again

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Speaker 5: in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 4: After the break, What can we expect to see in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty four? On the Biden and Trump campaign trail?

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Speaker 3: Former President Donald Trump holding the first formal rally of

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Speaker 3: his presidential campaign in Waco Tonight's both. President Biden held

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Speaker 3: the first big rally of his reelection.

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Speaker 2: Campaign today in Philadelphia.

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Speaker 3: It was before a crowd of hundreds of enthusiastic Union

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Speaker 3: members the table.

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Speaker 4: So, Josh, if Trump and Biden do end up as

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Speaker 4: the nominees for their party, as people think that they will,

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Speaker 4: what do you expect the campaigns.

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Speaker 2: To look like.

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Speaker 5: I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't look

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Speaker 5: a lot like it did last time. That Trump saying

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Speaker 5: like I'm going to come back. I'm going to make

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Speaker 5: America great again. I'm going to avenge my loss, and

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Speaker 5: Biden's saying, you know, I'm the guy who represents the

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Speaker 5: soul of the country and is going to prevent the

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Speaker 5: trumpy and chaos from overtaking us, and everybody who is

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Speaker 5: good and decent must sort of stand behind me. And

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Speaker 5: I think what you'll have on both sides is a

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Speaker 5: lot of voters grudgingly holding their nose and voting for

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Speaker 5: a candidate they don't really like. And I think the

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Speaker 5: two questions are going to be does anything kind of

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Speaker 5: health or age wise happen with either candidate? And number

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Speaker 5: two would be what kind of an influence in the

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Speaker 5: end are the independent candidates going to have? Because if

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Speaker 5: one of them comes in and wins five to ten

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Speaker 5: percent of the vote, that's a big factor in a

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Speaker 5: state like Georgia, where Biden only won by a hair.

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Speaker 4: The other thing that I'm watching for is what the

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Speaker 4: campaigning actually looks like. You know, once we get through

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Speaker 4: the Republican primaries, you know we have Iowa, New Hampshire,

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Speaker 4: South Carolina, and Nevada Super Tuesday, will we see a

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Speaker 4: lot of Trump? He hasn't been doing a ton of

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Speaker 4: campaign events, and you know Biden last time during COVID

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Speaker 4: also didn't do a ton of campaign events. They're both

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Speaker 4: these older guys. Biden is in his eighties. Trump is

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Speaker 4: in his late seventies. I don't think we're going to

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Speaker 4: see them both out there every day in the spring

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Speaker 4: and summer. So I also think it will be just

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Speaker 4: a really interesting campaign because I just don't think it'll

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Speaker 4: be as active as past cycles.

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Speaker 5: Probably right, I mean, I wouldn't expect it to be

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Speaker 5: with Biden. He'll certainly have to do more than he

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Speaker 5: did last time around when there was a COVID lockdown

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Speaker 5: and he could just kind of broadcast from his basement.

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Speaker 5: I'm mostly interested in Trump because he's always been the

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Speaker 5: guy who loves going out to these big rallies with

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Speaker 5: all his supporters and playing his little campaign soundtrack, you know,

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Speaker 5: Tiny Dancer by.

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Speaker 2: Elton and John, all the kinds of things it's ymca.

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Speaker 5: I think he wants to kind of be out there

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Speaker 5: touring the country and doing things. But he too has

440
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 5: shown signs of age, and so I'll be interested to

441
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 5: see whether he has the energy and the enthusiasm them

442
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 5: to kind of go out and do that this cycle

443
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 5: the way you did last cycle. The other thing I

444
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:05,640
Speaker 5: think too that could be a big variable is whether

445
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 5: or not these guys debate, you know, how often, and

446
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 5: whether they do it at all.

447
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 4: Everybody knows so much about Trump and Biden already, everybody

448
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 4: has opinions for the most part, So who are the

449
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 4: two of them going to try to actually persuade.

450
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,199
Speaker 5: I really do think the most interesting pool of voters

451
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 5: will be the double haters, the people who don't like

452
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 5: either Trump or Biden, and yet do have histories of

453
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 5: voting and presidential elections, so we know they're probably going

454
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 5: to pull the lever for one or the other. I

455
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 5: think it's convincing those people not if you're Biden that hey,

456
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 5: I'm a great president you should like me, not if

457
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 5: you're Trump, that I'm a victim and the last election

458
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 5: was stolen from me. I think what they'll be convincing

459
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 5: those double haters of is my opponent is a worse

460
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 5: guy than I am, and therefore you should hold your

461
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 5: nose and vote for me.

462
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 4: I also am really going to be looking to see

463
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,199
Speaker 4: how both parties try to go after Black voters and

464
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 4: Hispanic voters. Black voters are so deeply wedded to the

465
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 4: Democratic Party. Last cycle, Biden won like ninety two percent

466
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 4: of the Black vote and Trump one eight percent. But

467
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,479
Speaker 4: I do know that the Trump campaign really sees an

468
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 4: opportunity to pick off Hispanic voters and Black voters, and

469
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 4: we've seen a softening of support with both groups with Biden.

470
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 4: It's not that anyone thinks like Trump is going to

471
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 4: win the black vote, let's say, but if he can,

472
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 4: you know, get a few more percentage points in some

473
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 4: key swing states that could be helpful for him. If

474
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 4: there's you know, seventy five thousand people in these key

475
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 4: states that are going to decide the election.

476
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 5: It definitely could be and it's hard to know how

477
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 5: to measure that clearly. You know, we can see in

478
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 5: election results in twenty twenty two that a certain segment

479
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 5: of black Silatinas did shift over to support Republicans. So

480
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 5: that's a real trend. But the question of will they

481
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 5: for Trump, and will they and key swing states for

482
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 5: Trump in a way that matters, I think this would

483
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 5: be hard to note. I'm curious to see, you know,

484
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 5: will Biden be able to maintain his grip on white

485
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 5: working class voters. He improved over Hillary Clinton in twenty

486
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 5: twenty six and that was probably decisive for him in

487
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 5: states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that decided the election.

488
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 5: I'm curious to see will he still be able to

489
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 5: hold on to enough of those voters to prevail in

490
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 5: those states or have they become so disenchanted with inflation

491
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 5: and the economy that they'll drift back into Trump's column?

492
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 4: And so what do you think are going to be

493
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 4: the key themes that the Biden campaign hits on and

494
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 4: the Trump campaign hits on. What are both campaigns going

495
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 4: to emphasize?

496
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: You think?

497
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,239
Speaker 5: I think with Biden it's going to be that the

498
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 5: economy is back, that inflation is diminished, that we're historically

499
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 5: low levels of unemployment. I don't think he'll mention the

500
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,639
Speaker 5: bad parts of the economy like housing prices and mortgage rates,

501
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 5: but more the idea that, look, we've gotten through the

502
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 5: horrible COVID crisis in return to kind of normal Americans

503
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 5: who want jobs have them, Everybody is working, let's kind

504
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 5: of keep this train going. And for Trump, the argument

505
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 5: is going to be the country is a hellscape, that

506
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 5: inflation is through the roof, that if we could only

507
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 5: get Trump back into the White House so we can

508
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 5: go back into the booming economy of twenty eighteen and

509
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 5: twenty nineteen. And that's a message that, you know, if

510
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 5: you read the polls, certainly hasn't appeal to a lot

511
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 5: of voters who are unhappy about the economy right now.

512
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 4: Biden really talked a lot about threats to democracy, Republican extremism,

513
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 4: and Republicans' efforts to restrict abortion rights. Yeah, and those

514
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 4: were very salient messages in the twenty twenty two midterms,

515
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 4: particularly since the Supreme Court had just thrown out Roe v.

516
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 1: Wade.

517
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 4: And so I'll be curious, you know, are those messages

518
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 4: still as potent and are people still so angry about

519
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 4: that that they're motivated, you know, not just to vote

520
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 4: for Democrats, but really like turn out in mass like

521
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 4: we saw on toy.

522
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 1: Yeah.

523
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think I think Roe is a big factor,

524
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 5: a huge maybe the biggest factor that I neglected to mention.

525
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 5: I mean, we can see that not only in the

526
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:50,719
Speaker 5: midterm elections, but in special elections since that Democrats, Independence

527
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 5: and even some Republicans are very upset about this. You

528
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 5: can see in state ballot referendums and off your elections.

529
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 2: If that kind of energy carries through to No.

530
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 5: Twenty twenty four, I think that would be a big

531
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 5: help to Joe Biden. And it's certainly something that Biden

532
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 5: and Democrats are going to try and litigate during the

533
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 5: campaign because they know that attention on that issue helps them.

534
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 4: Josh, it's fun writing stories with you, and it's fun

535
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 4: talking on podcasts with you. Thanks for coming on the

536
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 4: Big Take. I appreciate it.

537
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: Always fun to be with you.

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00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 4: Thank you, thanks for listening to us here at The

539
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:27,199
Speaker 4: Big Take, a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For

540
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:31,880
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541
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Speaker 4: hear from you. Email us with questions or comments to

543
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Speaker 4: Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. Our supervising producer is

544
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Speaker 4: Vicky Virgalina. Our producers are Mo Barrow and Michael Falero Rafael.

545
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