1 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,559 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume 2 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: podcast Network. I am Chad Moelman. I am your host, 3 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 1: and I am joined as I am every week by 4 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:25,799 Speaker 1: my companion, might B F F the greatest gambler to 5 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 1: hit the Jersey Shore since Nuckie Thompson, Mr Simon Hunter. 6 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: Hell yeah, the gold is definitely be the Billy Walters 7 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: of New Jersey. So I got a long way to go. 8 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:41,880 Speaker 1: I gotta win it for thirty straight years. But that's 9 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 1: definitely the goal. You gotta win for thirty straight years. 10 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: You've got to come up with an entirely new dynamic. 11 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: You need to have a network of people working for 12 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: you that can move tens of millions of dollars. You 13 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: need a private jet, you need a feature in sixty minutes. 14 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: That's what you need. Yeah, this is tend sent high 15 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: us there and I started. I have one runner, great 16 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: friend of mine, a trustworthy guy. All I need is 17 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: about twenty more and I can be even close to 18 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: what he was doing on a daily basis. We want 19 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 1: to help you get there. We want to expand folio, 20 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: we want to get you there. First, we are going 21 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: to get to some very important MLB breakdowns with our 22 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: MLB experts, Colin Wilson and shawn's Rillo, because guess what 23 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: MLB Opening Day starts today. You may have forgotten because 24 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: there's so much NBA trade deadline news, there's so much 25 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: NFL free agency news, college basketball March Madness has been happening. 26 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 1: MLB decided, Hey, in the middle of all that, instead 27 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: of waiting a week and waiting for March Madness to finish, 28 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: let's start in the middle of the week between the 29 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: the elite and the Final Four. That's what we're gonna do. 30 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: M they'll be always thinking about how to get their 31 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: sports some more attention. We're gonna do it for him. 32 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: We're gonna give him some attention. We're gonna get smart 33 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: about betting baseball every day. We're gonna get smart about 34 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 1: betting win totals future, maybe some cy young last year, 35 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:08,079 Speaker 1: Sean Zarrillo are baseball were nailed, nailed. Who's going to 36 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: win the side? Young, big big bet before we get there, 37 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: Simon with Colin and Zaillo. Uh. There was some NFL 38 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: news this past week. It broke that the league is 39 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 1: going to be adding sevente game to the schedule. That 40 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: is good news for everyone. In the money making biz, 41 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: except for maybe the players who are miserable that they 42 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,919 Speaker 1: have to add this seventeenth game. Give me your take 43 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: as a fan and as a gambler. As a fan, 44 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 1: I try always look at the perspective of the players, 45 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: and sure, I feel for them they have an extra game, 46 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: but we all talked about the time. They're making hundreds 47 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 1: of thousands and millions of dollars, they're gonna be all right. 48 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: Um yeah, as a pro, this is amazing. It's like 49 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: having an extra week at It's my pay week. The 50 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: best thing ever. I enjoyed preseason, but you can't get 51 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 1: a lot down in preseason. They kind of limit how 52 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: much the books take on prissy games. So the way 53 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 1: shaping up, we're gonna get the season start a week early, 54 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: only have three preseason games, and it's amazing. It's I 55 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: just think we're in the golden age of football right now. 56 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 1: And it just keeps it growing, it keeps it just 57 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: keeps giving back the product what people want, and people 58 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: just they just want points. And what we've seen over 59 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: the last couple years is the offensive I've really exploded. 60 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: So the fact that they're doing this, it's gonna expand fantasy. 61 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 1: It's gonna expand sports betting. It's it's the best. I'm 62 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: really excited about their doing this. I love how you 63 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 1: say it's like getting an extra paycheck. It really is. 64 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: It's like, my favorite weeks are the last couple of 65 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: weeks because I have so much information on all these teams. 66 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: I mean, we we had it last week, it went five. 67 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: In our final week it goes week sixteen. So it's 68 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: definitely one of those where towards the end of the year, 69 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: I just have so much information that I just love it. 70 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 1: It's like you can see Q just evincing lines are 71 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: getting three points of value, which in the middle or 72 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: early part of the season you're not really seeing that 73 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: kind of stuff. So for me, the extradited week it's 74 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: really really huge to my end of the year return. 75 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: So we were on the phone, you know, we were 76 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 1: talking before the podcast. You said that you went out 77 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: and started betting team totals as soon as you saw 78 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 1: the news. Did books not adjust their total wins. I 79 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 1: haven't seen a ton of team totals, so I'm surprised 80 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: you're able to get anything done on a team total 81 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 1: right now. Um, but tell me what's happening. That's why 82 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: you're not approach yet. That's that's why you're not a pro. 83 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: It came out last night. Draft Kings put out team totals, 84 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 1: so obviously I didn' feel like driving resorts at ten 85 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: o'clock last night, so I just went to bed. I 86 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 1: woke up like six five thirty this morning. Draft Kings 87 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 1: put out team totals last night. It's Tuesday afternoon. Thanks 88 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,359 Speaker 1: for doing that. Give me some some team totals that 89 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: you looked at. I like to take unders because the 90 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: public manit is gonna come in and take overs, so 91 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: I like to get down early on unders. Again, we're 92 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 1: gonna talk about this for the next few months. We'll 93 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 1: let the dust settle. But there's three or four that 94 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 1: I have to hit right away. So the lines, I 95 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: think they're a team that's gonna tank this year. I 96 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: hit there under five. Uh, the Eagles six and a 97 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: half A plus money for the under right now, because 98 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: Larrey I live in, it's a lot of Philadelphi Eagles fans, 99 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 1: They're gonna be heavily slipped slated towards the over. So 100 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:17,919 Speaker 1: right now six and a half people have been taking 101 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 1: the over. So it's plus one on the under of 102 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 1: the Eagles. This is not a team that I can 103 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: see getting seven wins. They just have too many holes. 104 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: They have a second round quarterback that we're very unsure about, 105 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: and they don't really have the offensive weapons for me 106 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: to believe in. So that's another team like to fade 107 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: and we'll get to your team, of course, the Bears. 108 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: So the Bears are sitting at seven plus money towards 109 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 1: the under. When I look at that division, it's so 110 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: tempting to take the over. It feels like they're baiting 111 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: me to take the over because we know the Green 112 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: Bay runs that division. They're they're the most complete team. 113 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: Minnesota has tons of holes. It's hard to believe in Kirk. 114 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 1: It's it's one of those I don't believe the lines either. 115 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: So if I don't believe in the Bears, the lines, 116 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 1: or the Vikings, someone's gotta get the second amount of wins. 117 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 1: I'm having a battle right now with myself between them 118 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,479 Speaker 1: and the Vikings. But I just can't back Andy Dalton. 119 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 1: I just do not have faith in Andy Dalton. So 120 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: for me plus money taking the under at seven, I 121 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 1: like that number a lot. I have at six point eight, 122 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: So I'm getting a good good number there. At seven, 123 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: it's it's a fair number to push. So I like 124 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: the under even at seventeen games. That's like you like, 125 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: you look at the Bears and you're like, it's so 126 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: weird to say this team is going six and eleven do. 127 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:28,679 Speaker 1: I just look at that team and I think that 128 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: it starts at the top in the ownership. And I 129 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: know Bear fans complaining about a constantly the ownership there, 130 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: but the fact that he gave this coach and this 131 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: general manager another year and they brought in Andy Dalton 132 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,799 Speaker 1: to save their problems. I just have this team quentin 133 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: by week five. So I'm sorry to say it to 134 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 1: the Bears fans. I hope they can get off to 135 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 1: a hard, hot start like they did last year and 136 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: then they fell apart. I just don't see it. I 137 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: see a team that it's just that's just not right. 138 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 1: So I'm staying away from the Bears over I like 139 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: their under Listen, I'm I'm not going to disagree with you. 140 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:03,839 Speaker 1: There's nothing about Andy Dalton that is inspiring confidence in 141 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: Bears fans. All all, me and my buddies and me 142 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 1: and my younger son have been doing for the past 143 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: ten days or whatever it's been since they signed. Andy 144 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 1: Dalton is looking at what like NFL Memes does, which 145 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 1: is consistently trolling Andy Dalton and posting the most uninspiring 146 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: moments and videos where Andy Dalton is trying to get 147 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: the team going and he's like, all right, guys, we're 148 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: gonna go out there, we're gonna do better, we're gonna win, 149 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: we're gonna be our best. Let's go, and it's like 150 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: there's nothing about him that is making me excited. Then 151 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 1: you walk in like they're trying to do a hype video. 152 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like the Bears social media 153 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: team is so under duress and Ryan Pace is just 154 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: standing over their shoulders saying, post this nice thing about 155 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: Andy Dalton, post this thing to make Andy Dalton look great, 156 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 1: and like they're trying so hard, they're so game to 157 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 1: make Andy Dalton look great and they can't do it. 158 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: Like I feel terrible for everybody. I swear they're trolling you, 159 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: Like the QB one post they posted him one that 160 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: was such a troll job by that that was great, 161 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: But the fact that they're doing it without any irony, 162 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: like without any self awareness. They It's like, do they 163 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: not know there's not a single person in Chicago who 164 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: was a fan of the Bears who was saying, Yes, 165 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: Andy Dalton's QB one is what's gonna get us to 166 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: over seven wins in a in a seventeen game season. 167 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,719 Speaker 1: I got some good I got some good news. We're 168 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 1: gonna talk to baseball. Now, we're not gonna talk baseball. 169 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: Let's transition. That's a very good transition. Uh. To let 170 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 1: everybody know. Simon Hunter draft Kings posted some odds last 171 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: night in the state of New Jersey, some totals on 172 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 1: NFL NFL teams in a seventeen game season. Simon bet 173 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: the Lions under five. He bet the Eagles, the Eagles 174 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 1: under six and a half, and he bet the Bears 175 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 1: under seven. Does not bode well for the rest of us. 176 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: But let's do some baseball, because we got opening Day 177 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: on Thursday for the first time, and god knows how 178 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 1: long every single team is. Uh lasen him up. On Thursday, 179 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:16,839 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a whole slate against which, by the way, 180 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: is genius and it's what the it's what major League 181 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 1: Baseball should have done Last year when the schedule when 182 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 1: they restarted, they should have been playing games all day, NonStop, 183 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: every day like the NBA was, instead of trying to 184 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 1: get every game starting at seven thirty, which was just 185 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: terrible for fans and a horrible way to bring sports 186 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: back when they could have owned and dominated. But I digress. 187 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get angry about it. I'm not gonna 188 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: get upset about it, because honestly, our baseball cover just 189 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: so freaking good that if we can get fifteen games 190 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: in one day, and then we can get a hundred 191 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 1: and sixty two games for every team throughout the year, 192 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: we are gonna be rolling. If you don't read Shawnzarillo, 193 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: guess what you're gonna get a chance to do because 194 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: he will write every freaking day. It seems he will 195 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: watch every freaking game. He will bet on every game. 196 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 1: You can follow him the Action Network up and see 197 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 1: exactly what he's doing. All of the projections that we 198 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: have in our Projections are Genius are powered by the 199 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: brain of Sean Zarrillo. Hello, Sean, Hey, Chatty Simon, how 200 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 1: are you guys doing? It's going on? Brother? Do you 201 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: know Sean Zarrillo's first ever podcast experience was on the Favorites. 202 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: He had been working with us maybe for a week. 203 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: I thought he had done like a lot of stuff, 204 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: because he's written a lot, he's worked in media like 205 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 1: his He sent me the best cold email of anybody 206 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 1: that has ever sent me an email, And I just figured, 207 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: like the guy had media training and the first time 208 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 1: he ever did anything was coming on the Favorites podcast. 209 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: It's like you, Simon, Yeah, with black Jack Flutcher, no 210 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,319 Speaker 1: less to uh, you know, trying to throw me off 211 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: balance from across the desk. That was. That was an 212 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: interesting dynamic. But we got through it. We did get 213 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: through it. Also joining us. Oh boy, oh Colin Wilson. 214 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, who loves baseball so much, loves betting baseball 215 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: so much. He loves his Kansas City Royals. Uh. He 216 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: did a nice little trip with his kids the first 217 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 1: the weekend that the brackets were announced, he went to 218 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: spring training. He watched some Royals baseball. Loves to talk baseball. 219 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 1: We got a poor one out for the Arkansas Razorbacks though, 220 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: because Simon, I mean Colin. The only thing Colin loves 221 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:40,319 Speaker 1: more than baseball in college football might be the Arkansas Razorbacks. 222 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: How you feeling, buddy, whoo pig SUI You know I 223 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 1: I said yesterday on our March Madness Live show, I 224 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 1: was content with how far we got. I am blessed 225 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: to support a college fund egg college that also has 226 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: the number one baseball team in America. So I just 227 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: get to roll right into an other great team before 228 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: I roll right into college football season, where we will 229 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:07,839 Speaker 1: return to bull season. So for a collegiate standpoint, I 230 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 1: couldn't be happier. I'm glad for our run. I'm ready 231 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:15,959 Speaker 1: to turn the page into baseball. Baseball is my one 232 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:19,719 Speaker 1: true first love in life, because when I was three 233 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: or four years old, the weekend vacations were me uh 234 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 1: and my diapers running up and down the stairs at 235 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: Kaufman Stadium with George Brett, Willie Wilson. Uh, you know 236 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: Dick howserco Whitey herzog Is coaching Frank White. I mean 237 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: that my life was the Kansas City Royals until college 238 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: football really took it over in my teens. Listen, you're 239 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 1: speaking my tomb because I'm older than you are, and 240 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 1: so you two old. You're just an old man. I 241 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: am thinking about those Royal blue you know, sands about 242 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,319 Speaker 1: sand knit UNI's uh and George Brett being to me 243 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 1: like such a like so much of what you think 244 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: about when you think about sort of baseball in those 245 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 1: great stories that he tells, and him running to the 246 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: plate after the Pine Tower game against the Yankees and 247 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: those battles against the Yankees, and ah like you know, 248 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,680 Speaker 1: twib notes. He's a twib notes guy a Twitter. The 249 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: Royals are a twib notes legend team, like that legendary 250 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 1: late seventies early eighties run for them. I'm thinking, I'm 251 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: thinking twin notes twib was the greatest show ever for 252 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: those of you that are out there in Chattony's age range. 253 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: Now I have to set the bar for the favorite here. 254 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: Everybody needs to realize Zilla and I have a very good, working, 255 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 1: professional relationship, but he's a die hard Mets fan who 256 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 1: lost the series to the Kansas City Royals. All right, 257 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 1: so we get along with everything, but don't bring up 258 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: the fifteen series. Want to? You know, if we do 259 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: each other, then I don't know if our relationship would 260 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 1: be as good as end now. So I'm glad that 261 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:04,079 Speaker 1: we've met each other, you know, a little bit later 262 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: in life, all right. So let's get to this season, though, 263 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: because it is gonna be a long season, it's gonna 264 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 1: be a great season. Opening Day is always one of 265 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: the best days in the sports calendar. It is Thursday, 266 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 1: April one, Every team is playing, It's a full day 267 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: of baseball. Zarillo. First question go into you, what do 268 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 1: I need to think about if I want a bet baseball? 269 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: How do I do it? Like, there are a lot 270 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: of people who might only bet football, and betting baseball 271 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: is an incredibly challenging thing to do on a regular 272 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: basis because it requires a lot of concentration. Yeah, so 273 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: I'd say the first thing is it's not a spread game. 274 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: I would generally stick to money lines. That's where I 275 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 1: spocus most of my time and energy. I think spreads 276 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: are generally negative. Ev most games pretty much all games 277 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: listed at plus or minus one and a half runs. 278 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: You know, the the amount of games that end up 279 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: aliening on on one round. I think it's about four percent. 280 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: It's just not worth it relative to the odds that 281 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: they put out. So if you're interested it and playing spreads, 282 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: I would generally look at reverse run lines with underdogs. 283 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: Otherwise pass and look at money lines. And really it's 284 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: I think it's a much easier conversion to find teams 285 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: with value than it is relative to other sports where 286 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: you have to make your own power rankings figure out 287 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 1: what the point spread should be. You could just go 288 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 1: and find couple of the available projections. You could use 289 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: our projections, whatever floats your boat, whatever you think is 290 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: most accurate, and see the team is likely to win 291 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: a game today and they're listed odds, imply that they're 292 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 1: thirty likely to win, and place a bet on their 293 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: side at you know, a five percent confidence level that 294 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: they're going to exceed their expectations. So there's a lot 295 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: of value on underdogs throughout the season. But if you 296 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: kind of giving yourself up into the first five innings 297 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: markets and ignore bullpens or potentially depending on openers, you know, 298 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: look at who's expected to pitch those first five innings 299 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 1: and then full game lines, I think you can just 300 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: spend the majority of your time looking at those two 301 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: markets and end up betting close to a thousand games 302 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: throughout the season. There's just so much action. There's about 303 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: thirteen point five games per day over the course of 304 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 1: six months, and there's plenty of opportunities so no need 305 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: to force anything, no need to bet anything where you 306 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: are showing value unless you think there's something outside of 307 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: the numbers that like a picture injury or something like that, 308 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: that may indicate that the probability should be different than 309 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: what it's projected. But there's just so much opportunity to 310 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: make money throughout the season if your patient and you're 311 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: willing to deal deal with extreme swings of variants, because 312 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: there's definitely lots of up and down. All right, I 313 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: want I know Simon wants to jump in with a question, 314 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 1: but I gotta follow up on one thing, and and 315 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 1: I want to get Simon's perspective on this, and I 316 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: want to get Colin's perspective on this is NFL and 317 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 1: college football betters. You just said something very interesting, Relo, 318 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: which was if there is a I think you said 319 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 1: a five confidence level, it's worth making a bet and 320 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: tending to bet on the underdogs. That doesn't feel like 321 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: something that gives me a lot of confidence, and yet 322 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,919 Speaker 1: over the course of the season that can potentially add up. 323 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: So one, I want you to explain yourself a little bit, 324 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 1: and two I want to get Simon's perspective on how 325 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: confident he is when he bets NFL games, and Colin's 326 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: perspective when he bets college football games. Yeah, I mean 327 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 1: it works the other right too. So generally, actually I 328 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: set my edge a little bit lower. I I try 329 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 1: to bet three percentages or even three and a half percent, 330 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 1: which basically accounts for an error of margin relative to 331 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: home field advantage. But you know, if you if you 332 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 1: have a projected favorite that you think is likely to 333 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 1: win sixty five percent of the the time, the Dodgers should 334 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 1: win about sixty of their games this year, and you're 335 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,199 Speaker 1: getting alignment, is implying that they're likely to win this 336 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,719 Speaker 1: game sixty percent of the time or even sixty two 337 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 1: percent of the time. I think that's an actual waiter. 338 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 1: So really, you're just looking for gaps every single day 339 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: based upon the projections that you're using and the list 340 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 1: of odds in the market, and trying to find those edges. 341 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 1: It's it's not that I have a five percent confidence 342 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,679 Speaker 1: in that game, you know when, or that I have, 343 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 1: you know, greater than any particular game. Typically I feel 344 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 1: about the same on every game except for like one 345 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 1: a week. That really stands out to me. But you're 346 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: just kind of grinding along and picking off perceived edges 347 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: that are different than what the marketplace is saying the 348 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: game should be. Simon, when you think about NFL, what 349 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 1: are you thinking about as far as edges, I mean 350 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,400 Speaker 1: never ending. It's every week you can find an edge. 351 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 1: Like he's talking about Baseball, same thing. It's like the 352 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 1: pros I talked with base what's the best because like 353 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 1: you said, there's so many games. You can take days off, 354 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,360 Speaker 1: you can pick and choose your spots. You can ride 355 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: hot teams, you can stay away from teams. Like football 356 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: is different where it's kind of all combusting in just 357 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: one day, where it's like everything is pretty much happened 358 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 1: on Sunday and that's where I'm gonna make my money. 359 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: And when I bet football, it's it's completely different. Like 360 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: my every bet I make, I think I'm gonna win, 361 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 1: Like I put the time and I put the work in, 362 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 1: where when I've bet other sports, I have little to 363 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: no faith I'm gonna win. It's like it's like everyone said, 364 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 1: it's flipping a coin. It's like I have a chance. 365 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: And that's why I love what you guys at the 366 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: Action Network. You guys have literally have an app that 367 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,160 Speaker 1: you can go in. It's telling the percentages and where 368 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: the edges are on certain games. So that's one of 369 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: those where if I if I'm getting information for somebody, 370 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: I try to match it up with someone else. And 371 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:16,439 Speaker 1: that's why I like the app. If I if I 372 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,360 Speaker 1: like a team, like he's just talking about Kansas City 373 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: Royals and there are a big favorite to get the 374 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: team that's a big plus dog. Maybe it's one of 375 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 1: those where if you guys are saying, no, the value 376 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: here is on the dog, I'll just stay away from it. 377 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 1: So it's definitely one of these sports were baseball. It's 378 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: it's actually pretty easy to make money if you're really 379 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 1: discipline with their money. You just have to pick and 380 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 1: choose your spots. Colin, Yeah, I mean for as a 381 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 1: college football better to break it down, you know, mathematically, 382 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: this is what I consider in college football to be 383 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:45,120 Speaker 1: a two and a half to three and a half 384 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 1: point edge, right, that's four uh. To go from a 385 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: point spread of five to six is or six and 386 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 1: a half is about a four percent. So when Zarello 387 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: says I'm looking for four percent edge and football terms 388 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: for those of us, the bet On Football Autoon that's 389 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: kind of what we're looking at. Right. There's no real 390 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: true key number that we're looking to cross like we do. 391 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 1: In football, it's extremely important to get three and seven. Uh, 392 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 1: you know, eight's becoming important in college football. But with baseball, Uh, 393 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 1: you know, if you get those edges, here's where you've 394 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,400 Speaker 1: got to be not just good with numbers in baseball, 395 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,639 Speaker 1: but you've got to be kind of an artist because 396 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: you have to know when the line opens overnight, where 397 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 1: it's gonna head in the market when you wake up 398 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: the next morning, and where it's gonna close before first pitch. 399 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 1: And that's everything from market perceptive perception, public perception about 400 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 1: a picture. Maybe had a bad last outing against a 401 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: team that just happens to hit sliders better. Uh, maybe 402 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 1: he's gonna get an umpire that's gonna help him out 403 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,640 Speaker 1: with some edges painting the corners. Uh. You know, baseball 404 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: is a thing where you have to also predict the market. 405 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:46,400 Speaker 1: But you've got to be careful with your edges because 406 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,400 Speaker 1: the Dodgers are gonna be minus three plus a ton 407 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 1: of times this year, and you just can't take the 408 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,880 Speaker 1: dogs every time against them, no matter what the edges 409 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,159 Speaker 1: and it's gonna happen a lot against the Rockies. I mean, 410 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 1: I think the average Dodgers lie is gonna be minus 411 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,439 Speaker 1: three eight against the Rockies this year. It's even though 412 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 1: there's edge every time and the public is gonna pile 413 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: on the Dodgers, You're gonna have to hit a Rocky's 414 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: whin like once out of every four, you know, to 415 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 1: to pay that off. So you have to be kind 416 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: of an artist with the market and know where it's 417 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 1: going to play to do baseball lines. He just called 418 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 1: you an artist. Uh, you know, it's it's definitely an 419 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 1: art for him in terms of being creative with how 420 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,959 Speaker 1: you're getting your number and and just being different than 421 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: everybody else and finding the thing that makes your particular 422 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: model unique. So I think I separate myself from the 423 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 1: rest of the market and how I incorporate defense, and 424 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,200 Speaker 1: I think that's what gives me a slight edge compared 425 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: to what other people are doing. Um. The challenge with 426 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: betting baseball that I see, it's a little bit like 427 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 1: betting hockey. We joke about this all the time at 428 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: the Action Network. It's a miserable experience because you end 429 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: up betting these underdogs knowing that a minus three eighty 430 00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:01,400 Speaker 1: favorite is not going to be a making proposition over 431 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: a long period of time. So Sean and Colin, over 432 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 1: the course of the season, do you feel like it's 433 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: hard to be doing what you do where you're putting 434 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: picks in the app every day baseball a lot a 435 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 1: lot of times sort of the record might not reflect 436 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 1: how often you're winning because you bet so much on underdogs, 437 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 1: you know. I think it really just comes down to patients, 438 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 1: Like there's there's periods of time and just based on 439 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,199 Speaker 1: mathematical probability. If you're betting a thousand games over the 440 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: course of the season, you're due for one twenty unit 441 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 1: upswing and one unit downswing or the course of that period. 442 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 1: So you just need to be able to grind it out. 443 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: And if you're not feeling it, like if you if 444 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 1: you're getting to a point where you feel like you're 445 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:54,479 Speaker 1: being reactive instead of going off of what your number is, 446 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,360 Speaker 1: take a day off and get away from it. Reset 447 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 1: your mind, because there's no point in following the same 448 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 1: process if you're going to deviate for a minute at 449 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 1: some point, you have to be tryed to do true 450 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 1: to your process, even if it's not going well for 451 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 1: a period of time. You can't let the results affect 452 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 1: you because there is gonna be massive swings of variants. 453 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,360 Speaker 1: It's just that type of sport where you can't really 454 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: quantify everything that's going to happen over the course of 455 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: a night in game, where you generally know the players 456 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,640 Speaker 1: who are going to be on a football field, you're 457 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 1: a pretty good idea of the players who are going 458 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 1: to come into a baseball game, but you don't have 459 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: a d percent certainty like you went with the football team. 460 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:31,159 Speaker 1: Trust the process, Yeah, that I mean that that's what 461 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 1: works for me. I mean I've been doing baseball in 462 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 1: the Action app since the Action app was born, uh 463 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,680 Speaker 1: and doing it successfully, but I've been doing it on totals, 464 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,479 Speaker 1: and really it's just something that you have to trust 465 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: your process. Sunday is getaway day. Nobody wants to be 466 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 1: in the park longer than two and a half hours, right, 467 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: Nobody wants this extended ball game on Sunday afternoon. They're 468 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: trying to fly out Monday morning and team might have 469 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: flown all night, maybe they played Sunday night baseball. You 470 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 1: can't expect them to hit very much when they come out. Uh, 471 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 1: there are certain umpires that have ridiculous strike zones. And 472 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 1: get me started on robot umps that are needed. But 473 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 1: you know some umpires have such ridiculous strike zones. The 474 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 1: wind that Wriggley may be going a certain way. Uh there. 475 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 1: I mean there's just so many things when it comes 476 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 1: to totals where you can find an edge and beat 477 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 1: the market and get closing line value and trust your process. 478 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,160 Speaker 1: You lose it so much so a guy gets called 479 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 1: up from Triple A and he he gives up six 480 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 1: runds in the eighth. I mean, your process was correct 481 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 1: and you beat the market, just keep playing it. So 482 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 1: you just you do have been a little bit there 483 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,880 Speaker 1: about totals. I was warning coming into the season, like baseball, 484 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 1: any kappers, I know there's a lot of stuff being 485 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 1: talked about with the baseballs. How does the whole thing 486 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 1: going on the baseball and what's going on in the baseballs, 487 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,719 Speaker 1: and how does that infect totals going into the season 488 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,239 Speaker 1: coming up? I'll go first because I know Sean has 489 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 1: a lot to say. Shot will get a lot of 490 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: his test here. But I don't understand MLB coming out 491 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 1: and saying we are going to subtly change the ball. 492 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: I mean, this is something where there's people that put 493 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: vassaline pine tar snot badges, still all kinds of ship 494 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 1: on the ball, and it has a major effect at 495 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,959 Speaker 1: spin rate in twelve to six curves. Uh, And all 496 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: of a sudden, you know, the home run rate last 497 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 1: year draw from six point six to six point five. 498 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,959 Speaker 1: We got to do more by shrinking the core, like 499 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,160 Speaker 1: this is a Beer League softball team. I don't get 500 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,919 Speaker 1: what MLB is trying to do by limiting home runs. 501 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 1: You don't see the NBA putting their goals at eleven 502 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 1: feet because there's just too many dunks, right, the most 503 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 1: exciting part of the game. We're just gonna have to 504 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 1: eliminate it. I don't know what MLB's deal is. And 505 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: the human or factor I'll let Sean talk about that 506 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 1: pisses me off as well, because last year they put 507 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 1: five in, didn't tell you what parks they were in, 508 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 1: and this year they're putting more in and they're still 509 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 1: not telling us where the human door is gonna be. Yeah, 510 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:35,640 Speaker 1: i'd say a third of the parks now have human 511 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:37,680 Speaker 1: doors and we still don't know where half of them are. 512 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 1: So I wish it was just the baseball is that 513 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 1: they were messing with. Um. They're also cracking down on 514 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,120 Speaker 1: the substances that Colin mentioned that pictures are gonna be using, 515 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 1: They're gonna be monitoring spin rates closer this year, potentially 516 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,399 Speaker 1: suspending I'm sure it's mostly just to keep the honest honest, 517 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 1: but they say that they're gonna suspend pictures who spin 518 00:25:55,359 --> 00:26:00,919 Speaker 1: rates are very wildly varying from past performance, and it 519 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,120 Speaker 1: really just comes down to the fact that there's there's 520 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: so many factors that they're changing. It's it's hard to 521 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: really put a number or quantify what the difference is 522 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 1: going to be. Runs and home runs are both down 523 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,879 Speaker 1: in spring training. Is that confirmation bias or is that reality? Well, 524 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 1: we're gonna find out when the regular season starts. Home 525 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,280 Speaker 1: Field advantage without fans was took a big dip at 526 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,280 Speaker 1: the beginning of the regular season last year and ended 527 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 1: up eating out. You know, you you always want to 528 00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 1: confirm the things that you suspect might be happening based 529 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 1: upon the data that you have, but you need to 530 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,439 Speaker 1: give it a larger sample in order for it to 531 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: play out and actually see what the truth is. So 532 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in the law of unintended consequences, 533 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 1: and I ultimately think that this is going to have 534 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 1: a net negative effect on the changes that they want 535 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,480 Speaker 1: to make. They want fewer home runs, they want more 536 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,400 Speaker 1: balls and play well. If hitters know that the mistakes 537 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 1: that they're hitting out to the opposite field, they aren't 538 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 1: gonna fly as far, why wouldn't they try to pull 539 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 1: the ball more and hit more home runs to the 540 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,399 Speaker 1: pulse side of the park. They're gonna lay off the 541 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: pitches to the outside, maybe take more strikeouts, and maybe 542 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 1: take more walks. I think there's a potential increase that 543 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 1: we're going to see the Threacher up outcomes effect in 544 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 1: baseball instead of a decrease, just because they're trying to 545 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 1: decrease the rate of home runs, and hitters are going 546 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 1: to adjust. Because the result of that, also the seam 547 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 1: height on the ball is higher, you're gonna see increased 548 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,199 Speaker 1: pin spin rates from pictures. Pictures might become more dangerous 549 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: than they already have been because they're getting a better 550 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,360 Speaker 1: grip on the baseball without needing any foreign substances. So 551 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 1: there's a confluence of factors going on here. I know, 552 00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 1: bookmakers came out and said that they're not really going 553 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,159 Speaker 1: to adjust totals more than about a quarter of a 554 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 1: run to start the season, and then if there is 555 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: a big impact on the way the games are being played, 556 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,120 Speaker 1: they will adjust further from there. But if you think 557 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,119 Speaker 1: you have an edge on these early season totals, particularly 558 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: with regards to the unders, that's where I would look 559 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,400 Speaker 1: early in the year you may be able to get 560 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 1: in there before books ultimately adjust the entire run environment down. 561 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,080 Speaker 1: I took about a quarter of a run off of 562 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 1: my projected runs per game, but that's about as far 563 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 1: as I'm going for now until we have more information. 564 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,679 Speaker 1: This is this is the heart of the problem, Like 565 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 1: why is baseball making the ball such an issue that 566 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 1: it's driving fans insane and it's driving the people who 567 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 1: are closest to the game even nuttier and making them angrier. 568 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:19,439 Speaker 1: Take take the noise out of the conversation when it 569 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,399 Speaker 1: comes to giving fans the product. I think that's the 570 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 1: biggest challenge that baseball has, Like, I don't want bookmakers 571 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,320 Speaker 1: to have to be telling me how they're adjusting based 572 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,760 Speaker 1: on the ball. I don't want to know that there 573 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,919 Speaker 1: are human doors in a third of the parks, but 574 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 1: I don't know where they are. Like that doesn't make 575 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 1: the game more even. It changes the competitive balance in 576 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 1: ways that are unforeseen, unpredictable, but not driven by the 577 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 1: performance of the players, of players getting better of managerial decisions. 578 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 1: It's based on an outside factor that drives me nuts. 579 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 1: Am I we're reacting, No, not at all. I think 580 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 1: people just want consistency and to be able to watch 581 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 1: the game developed naturally over time and and let pictures 582 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 1: adjust to the fly ball revolution that we've seen and 583 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 1: barry hitters with more high fastballs and breaking balls low 584 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:20,160 Speaker 1: in the zone, like the game should eventually let itself 585 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 1: figure it out. And you have hitters coming up like 586 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 1: Nick Madrigal or are high contact hitters who are going 587 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 1: to take advantage of the fact that defenses are playing 588 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 1: them differently and outfields are playing a little bit deeper. 589 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: So I think you just need to let sports naturally 590 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: evolve over time. And unless you have go back to 591 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 1: a situation like in the seventies where they needed to 592 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,120 Speaker 1: lower the mound because pitching became so incredibly dominant, move 593 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 1: the mount back a few feet. There's there's other solutions 594 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 1: other than changing the ball that are proven that they 595 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,000 Speaker 1: can help get the game back to having more action, 596 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 1: more balls in play, the fact that pitchers are just 597 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,880 Speaker 1: throwing harder than ever, hitters don't have the time to 598 00:29:57,920 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 1: react to those pitches that they used to do. So 599 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 1: the way to come bat that is to move the bat, 600 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 1: move the mound back, or lower the mound. And I 601 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 1: don't really think messing with the baseball itself and just 602 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 1: seeing what's going to happen is the best solution because 603 00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 1: we really don't know what's gonna happen. Baseball is starting, 604 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,000 Speaker 1: Like what are the two teams are? You're just staying 605 00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 1: there's still really good value to win the World serious, 606 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 1: like we have some odds for divisions you like to 607 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 1: or are there world series that you're just saying these 608 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 1: these are numbers are off. You should bet it now 609 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,239 Speaker 1: before the public comes in after they have a really 610 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 1: good start to this season. Listen. I think when you're 611 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 1: investing in MLB futures preseason, you need to know what 612 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 1: owners and gms are looking to spend before the deadline 613 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,920 Speaker 1: and which ones are looking to sell. Uh. And you know, 614 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,720 Speaker 1: for me, that's why I have such an issue with 615 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,959 Speaker 1: the Red Sox like this number down at seventy nine 616 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,800 Speaker 1: and a half for their win total, that to me 617 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: is too low. I think eighty one was really the threshold. 618 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 1: And now we're just kind of dog piling on an 619 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,560 Speaker 1: organization that can't get their stuff together. But I can't 620 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 1: come on here and say that we should take it 621 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 1: over because I don't really know the direction. I just 622 00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 1: know they have enough talent to get over seven nine 623 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 1: and a half. But that doesn't mean that they're gonna 624 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 1: be buyers at the deadline. Uh And a team that 625 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 1: I bought immediately to win their division, I would buy 626 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,240 Speaker 1: them to win the World Series. A team that's gotten 627 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 1: way too much hate is the Houston Astros, and right 628 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 1: now at fan Duel, they're over eighty seven and a half. 629 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 1: This is a number that I think I make it 630 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 1: ninety from a win pythagraem standpoint, Shawn's got him at 631 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 1: eighty nine wins. I think they can win the World Series. 632 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:22,720 Speaker 1: I think they're definitely gonna win the A L West. 633 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 1: I mean, even Davenport, they didn't take last year's projections 634 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 1: and they have them at ninety five wins. And you 635 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 1: know fan Graphs has him is the second best offensive 636 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 1: war behind the Dodgers, and the best overall war in 637 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 1: in the A l uh. You know, the dip in 638 00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 1: their total came because of Franber Valdez taking a comeback 639 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 1: pitch off of his ring finger. But now he's having 640 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 1: this miraculous recovery and Dusty, you know, Baker's like, this 641 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 1: is you know it's gonna be great. He's he's fine, 642 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 1: No big problem here. They signed Jacoder Easy to be 643 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 1: a fifth starter. That's a great fifth starter. He's not great, 644 00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 1: but he's a great fifth starter. Al two v looks 645 00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: like himself again in spring training. Organ Alvarez is still 646 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 1: growing as a hitter, just scary for everybody. And their 647 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 1: new center fielder that replaced George Springer, Miles Straw, maybe 648 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 1: the fastest man in MLB. I mean, I was thinking 649 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,719 Speaker 1: Mondescy was going to run away with the stolen base title, 650 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 1: but this, this Miles Straw. Yet, if you can get 651 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,200 Speaker 1: on base, is potentially forty steel guy. Uh. So I 652 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: love the Astros. Yeah, just to echo off of what 653 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 1: Colin is saying with the Astros, so the most conservative 654 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 1: divisional projection for them is about fifty and you can 655 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 1: still beat them at plus one thirty at fandel, which 656 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 1: is a pretty substantial edge. Most aggressive projection on them 657 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,120 Speaker 1: is to win their division. I have the World Series 658 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,240 Speaker 1: odds at eight point four percent, so that's closer to 659 00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 1: ten to one than it is one thirty one out 660 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 1: there that you can get a bit of a homer pick. 661 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 1: But listen, I've never bet Mats futures before. Again, the 662 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:52,960 Speaker 1: most conservative divisional projection on them is highest is sixty 663 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,240 Speaker 1: three percent, So betting them at plus one fifty to 664 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,480 Speaker 1: win their division it's more than fifteen percent edge. Again, 665 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 1: World Series projection close eleven percent. If you can pick 666 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:03,720 Speaker 1: off a twelve to one out there, and there's actually 667 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 1: an eighteen to one on the West Coast that you 668 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,680 Speaker 1: can snipe. Those are both actionable numbers, but by far 669 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 1: the most undervalued team right now is the Milwaukee Brewers. 670 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 1: Added Colton Long Jackie Bradley Jr. Up the middle to 671 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:18,720 Speaker 1: fix their defense. We've seen repeatedly throughout the past decade 672 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 1: twenty years the quickest way to improve your team and 673 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,400 Speaker 1: turn it around is to improve your team defense. And 674 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,520 Speaker 1: when you have really good pitching like they do, it 675 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,440 Speaker 1: kind of amplifies everything that you're doing so Yellow just 676 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,560 Speaker 1: heading in spring training looks over the struggles that he 677 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,400 Speaker 1: had last year kest and here is heading in spring training. 678 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:36,800 Speaker 1: I like the way that their offense is shaping up. 679 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,680 Speaker 1: I love their defense, I love their bullpen. Have a 680 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 1: couple of really sneaky si On candidates at the top 681 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,719 Speaker 1: of their rotation, and Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burns. So, 682 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:49,000 Speaker 1: just to go back to projections, I have the when 683 00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 1: the n Central, their range is thirty seven to sixt 684 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 1: so it's a much wider range of outcomes in a 685 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,320 Speaker 1: pretty wide open division. You can still bet a plus 686 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 1: three town out there at Fandel. That's obviously still more 687 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,280 Speaker 1: than a ten percent edge, even if you're taking that 688 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 1: thirty seven percent projection. Have the World Series odds projected 689 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,920 Speaker 1: at three point four, you can find a number as 690 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,719 Speaker 1: high as sevent threw a ticket up on Twitter yesterday. 691 00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,000 Speaker 1: I mean, if you want a team that's a long 692 00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 1: shot to make their make the playoffs and then have 693 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,160 Speaker 1: a path to the World Series, here's the most underrated 694 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 1: thing that people aren't talking about this year. Since we're 695 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,479 Speaker 1: going back to the old playoff format, there's a path 696 00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,880 Speaker 1: for the NL Central or the n L each Champion 697 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,799 Speaker 1: to avoid the Dodgers completely in the playoffs. If the 698 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,360 Speaker 1: Dodgers are as good as you think they're gonna be 699 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:33,880 Speaker 1: and they finished with the best record of the n L, 700 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 1: and the Padres are also as good as you think 701 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,000 Speaker 1: they're gonna be and they finished in the wild card spot, 702 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,520 Speaker 1: you're looking at the wild card winner, which presumably would 703 00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 1: be the Mets the braves of the Padres, playing the 704 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:45,759 Speaker 1: Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs in a 705 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,879 Speaker 1: five game series where they have a much better chance 706 00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 1: of beating them than anybody would in the seven game series. 707 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:52,440 Speaker 1: And then the winner of the NL East in the 708 00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,279 Speaker 1: NL Central Series would presumably get to play a good 709 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:59,320 Speaker 1: wild card team in the NLCS and get home field advantage. 710 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,799 Speaker 1: So I think there's certainly a path to value for 711 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,960 Speaker 1: the NL East and NL Central Champion, provided the Dodgers 712 00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:07,279 Speaker 1: are as good as they are and they get a 713 00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 1: pretty tough first round matchups. Just at that sent to 714 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,480 Speaker 1: one number, I think it's tremendous value, and it's it's 715 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,960 Speaker 1: probably double what it should be. Can I echo that 716 00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 1: real quick? Yeah? Yeah, I mean, let me echo this 717 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 1: about the Brewers right now. On FanDuel the Cardinals are 718 00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,239 Speaker 1: plus one hundred. They were like plus two fifty, but 719 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,919 Speaker 1: then they signed Nolan Ronado and they just they're they're 720 00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,360 Speaker 1: everybody jumped on the Cardinal strands plus one d. They're 721 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 1: one and a half game. Their game total win total 722 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,840 Speaker 1: for the season is like one and a half higher 723 00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:37,560 Speaker 1: than the Brewers. So tell me why the Cardinals are 724 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 1: plus one to win the Central and the Brewers are 725 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,239 Speaker 1: plus three tin It makes absolutely no sense. And then 726 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,080 Speaker 1: think about this, Oh we got Nolan Ronado, that's great. 727 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 1: Did you happen to see that the Brewers signed Colton Wong, 728 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,920 Speaker 1: a guy that had a defensive war over fifteen a 729 00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 1: couple of years ago. Like the Brewers have four gold Glovers, 730 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,400 Speaker 1: they have two guys with a canine rate over like 731 00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,480 Speaker 1: over ten. Uh, they have like the best bullpen. I mean, 732 00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 1: the Brewers number is just not being paid attention to whatsoever. 733 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,319 Speaker 1: And this is a team, you know, some life now 734 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,680 Speaker 1: ownership there. They've got the money to go after it 735 00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,640 Speaker 1: if they if they really are contenders. And I'm deeply 736 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:14,120 Speaker 1: concerned about Ronado. He dealtless shoulder information all year last year, 737 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:16,479 Speaker 1: wasn't hitting. It's his non throwing shoulders, So we should 738 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,279 Speaker 1: be fine on defense, but he has some homer yet 739 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,680 Speaker 1: in spring training, and he's looked pretty bad at the plate, 740 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,839 Speaker 1: So I think there's significant downside to this Cardinals team. 741 00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,400 Speaker 1: Pitching kind of scares me as well. Flaherty has had 742 00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:32,239 Speaker 1: some injury concerns too. So really, this Cardinals team, even 743 00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,720 Speaker 1: their upside projection, it's it's hard to get them above 744 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,880 Speaker 1: where their highest win total is listed. I feel like 745 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,440 Speaker 1: Zarillo in the way you laid out a potential playoff 746 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,839 Speaker 1: path to the World Series for the Brewers and how 747 00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:49,359 Speaker 1: they can potentially avoid the Dodgers. That's just three dimensional 748 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 1: future odds chess that you're playing right there, that only 749 00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,480 Speaker 1: someone who was thinking about baseball as often as you 750 00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:02,600 Speaker 1: do can get too. So that's that's sort of where 751 00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:08,120 Speaker 1: the value lies for Division pen and World Series odds. 752 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:15,080 Speaker 1: What about team totals colin Europe first, Yeah, I mean 753 00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,440 Speaker 1: I took a I took a Blue Jays team total 754 00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:21,000 Speaker 1: over to start when spring training broke camp. There's I'll 755 00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 1: talk about this later with some player props, but there's 756 00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:25,359 Speaker 1: just so much offense here. I don't know what they're 757 00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,120 Speaker 1: gonna do on defense. Kurby Yates is now I'm not 758 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,480 Speaker 1: going to close for them. He's hurt. Uh, they're kind 759 00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,359 Speaker 1: of short on the pitching staff. But this is an 760 00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,440 Speaker 1: offense that can score ten runs a night, double digit 761 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,360 Speaker 1: runs a night. It's gonna be fantastic baseball, especially against 762 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,279 Speaker 1: teams like the Orioles. Uh, teams like the Socks, people 763 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,560 Speaker 1: that have pen problems. The Blue Jays are just gonna 764 00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,560 Speaker 1: ring them up. Um. So I'll talk about a player 765 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,000 Speaker 1: prop about them later. But you know, one team that 766 00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,200 Speaker 1: I was going to touch on was the Phillies, and 767 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,640 Speaker 1: I'm just not in love with what's what's going on 768 00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:55,719 Speaker 1: with the Phillies in this season. Now, they brought in 769 00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 1: Dave Dombrowski, president of operations, And if that name doesn't 770 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 1: ring a bell for people that pay attention to baseball, 771 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,000 Speaker 1: this is a guy that's responsible for the Expost team 772 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,719 Speaker 1: in the early nineties that just being a juggernaut and 773 00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,320 Speaker 1: had a World Series stolen away from them in ninety four. 774 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,960 Speaker 1: He built then Marlin's run to the World Series. He 775 00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,799 Speaker 1: built the Tiger's dominance in the early two thousand's. So 776 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:17,640 Speaker 1: you say, well, why isn't this a good thing for 777 00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,719 Speaker 1: the Phillies Because he didn't build this hundred ninety two 778 00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,759 Speaker 1: million dollar roster. Right, he didn't give a hundred and 779 00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:27,120 Speaker 1: fifteen million to JT. Real Mudo, Right he a thirty 780 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 1: year old catcher. Why because he frames you could have 781 00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,640 Speaker 1: got Steven vote for three million dollars. Scott Kingery four 782 00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:35,600 Speaker 1: million dollars, supposed to be the highest prospect in the 783 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:39,160 Speaker 1: Philly system boomed down to minor leagues. This right, and 784 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,360 Speaker 1: we're getting Archie Bradley. Shout out to broken aarraw loocahome 785 00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:44,520 Speaker 1: of Archie Bradley. We got Archie Bradley coming in on 786 00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,200 Speaker 1: a one year contract to show up what was possibly 787 00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,840 Speaker 1: the worst bullpen I've ever seen in the history of 788 00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:56,680 Speaker 1: bullpens in so, Phillies are in transition. They have huge contracts. 789 00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,080 Speaker 1: We don't know what Dombrowski wants to do with these. 790 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:01,600 Speaker 1: I suspect there's gonna be a lot of moves so 791 00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,840 Speaker 1: that they can contend, not against the Mets and Braves. 792 00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:07,239 Speaker 1: This here, it's not gonna happen. Uh So they are sellers, 793 00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:09,640 Speaker 1: which makes me want to hit under their win total. 794 00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,439 Speaker 1: What's the blue Jay's total and what's the Phillies total? 795 00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:16,200 Speaker 1: Blue Jays over eighties six Phillies under eighty one and 796 00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,800 Speaker 1: a half all day. He pretty much said what I 797 00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,680 Speaker 1: thought in the back of my mind, like I'm trying 798 00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,239 Speaker 1: to be optimistic as the Phillies fan literally going through 799 00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:26,640 Speaker 1: the golden age of Utly Howard Jimmy Rollins Cole handles 800 00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,720 Speaker 1: our picture. Like when I look at Basem, I always 801 00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:30,759 Speaker 1: think it's one of these things where you build in 802 00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,799 Speaker 1: the infield, you can whatever catcher is replaceable, like we 803 00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:35,600 Speaker 1: had Chuoge where wees he was a great Like you're 804 00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:37,800 Speaker 1: talking about framing catcher. He was a great framing catcher. 805 00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,360 Speaker 1: But like you just said, the under it's really appealing. 806 00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:42,520 Speaker 1: What I'm thinking here is it is this even more 807 00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,160 Speaker 1: of a reason to really back them Nets. It seems 808 00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:46,920 Speaker 1: like in this division and Mets are so far above 809 00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,120 Speaker 1: everyone else, Like is Washington really gonna go peep with 810 00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:50,799 Speaker 1: the Mets. It just I can't see in their team 811 00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:52,680 Speaker 1: that's really gonna give the Mets of problems coming year. 812 00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:54,279 Speaker 1: I was wondering if Sean can break down what's going 813 00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:57,239 Speaker 1: on with that. The Braves absolutely scared the daylights out 814 00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,400 Speaker 1: of it. This Braves team is loaded with young talent, 815 00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 1: young pitcher, and I think Ian Anderson, who came up 816 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:04,680 Speaker 1: and pitched extremely well in the playoffs last year, could 817 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,200 Speaker 1: be the best pitcher on their team, and that included 818 00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,640 Speaker 1: cy young candidate Max Freed and Sneaky Sun young candidate 819 00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:12,759 Speaker 1: Mike Zarroko who's coming back from injury this year. So 820 00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,279 Speaker 1: Akuna is one of the best young players in the game. 821 00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,320 Speaker 1: I think the Braves are just loaded with young talent 822 00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,960 Speaker 1: and upside. I do show value on their under ninety 823 00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,080 Speaker 1: one and a half, but I'm not touching it. The 824 00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:24,040 Speaker 1: projector markets being kind of low on them for a 825 00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,760 Speaker 1: few seasons now and they keep exceeding it, and based 826 00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,520 Speaker 1: on the talent they have in their roster, they're one 827 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,480 Speaker 1: of the actually richest teams in baseball. Sneakily, I think 828 00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:33,799 Speaker 1: they're in the top five or top three even uh 829 00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,440 Speaker 1: So they're gonna keep willing to spend. So the Braves 830 00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,520 Speaker 1: do scare me a little bit, but not enough to 831 00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:41,000 Speaker 1: back off my Mets features. Kind of have more of 832 00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,279 Speaker 1: a neutral opinion on the Phillies. I just think that 833 00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,239 Speaker 1: being the fourth best of the fourth best team in 834 00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:49,279 Speaker 1: the strongest division in baseball with a really strong young 835 00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,000 Speaker 1: team like the Marlins coming up behind them, it's just 836 00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,719 Speaker 1: a lot to overcome. Uh you know, the NL East 837 00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,080 Speaker 1: isn't gonna get too wild card teams, so that means 838 00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:58,520 Speaker 1: that you have to beat one of the Mets are 839 00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,399 Speaker 1: Braves and then still have enough win is to even 840 00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,239 Speaker 1: make the second spot. So kind of a neutral take 841 00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,520 Speaker 1: on the Phillies, but really, if we're looking at win totals, 842 00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:09,800 Speaker 1: it's the same way that I analyze divisional or World 843 00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:13,239 Speaker 1: Series odds. I need that most conservative or least optimistic 844 00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:17,239 Speaker 1: projection to exceed what the total is. Uh So, two 845 00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,560 Speaker 1: teams that I'm looking at that I think pretty much 846 00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:22,640 Speaker 1: everywhere the Astros over eighty seven and a half and 847 00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,279 Speaker 1: the Pirates, who were awful, but I think they're still 848 00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:27,200 Speaker 1: gonna win more than fifty eight and a half games. 849 00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,040 Speaker 1: They're in the weakest division in baseball, in the L Central. 850 00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:32,720 Speaker 1: It's gonna be tough for a lot of those teams 851 00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,719 Speaker 1: that even break five hundred. The Cardinals under we talked 852 00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:39,719 Speaker 1: about as well, just based upon where they are. Um, 853 00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:41,880 Speaker 1: you know, the Cardinals are team who generally exceed their 854 00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,600 Speaker 1: win total because they're so strong defensively. They've had some 855 00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,239 Speaker 1: injuries though too. I mentioned that the guys are ready, 856 00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,719 Speaker 1: but also Harrison Vader, who's a really strong defensive center 857 00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:52,239 Speaker 1: field there is gonna be out for a little bit. 858 00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:55,239 Speaker 1: The two under teams that I'm looking at right now, 859 00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,360 Speaker 1: Chicago White Sox under ninety and a half wins you 860 00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:00,160 Speaker 1: a him and has just got hurt. He's to be 861 00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:02,680 Speaker 1: out for at least five months, probably the whole season 862 00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,279 Speaker 1: based on how it looks, so the White Sox are 863 00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:07,120 Speaker 1: willing to spend they're going to replace that whole He's 864 00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:08,760 Speaker 1: a bad defender, but he's one of the best sitters 865 00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:10,840 Speaker 1: in the American League. I think that's a big injury, 866 00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:12,840 Speaker 1: and I think that really opens up the Ale Central 867 00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,359 Speaker 1: a little bit. And the Oakland is under eighty seven 868 00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,960 Speaker 1: and a half again, another team that has exceeded their 869 00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,640 Speaker 1: projected win total for a few seasons now. But really 870 00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:23,400 Speaker 1: I just think with the way the Astros look the 871 00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,640 Speaker 1: way that the Angels look, Otani is look a little 872 00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:28,040 Speaker 1: bit better in spring than he looked earlier in the 873 00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,879 Speaker 1: in the off season, So I think the AL West 874 00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:32,720 Speaker 1: is shaping up where the A's could be up against 875 00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:34,400 Speaker 1: it a little bit this year. I won't be surprised 876 00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:36,480 Speaker 1: that they exceed that number, but the value looks like 877 00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:39,680 Speaker 1: it's they're they're projected ranges eight four wins, so you're 878 00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:41,359 Speaker 1: still getting at least three and a half of wins 879 00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,360 Speaker 1: of value even if you go with the most optimistic 880 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:48,600 Speaker 1: projection there. All right, Zarillo, last year you nailed Trevor 881 00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:53,440 Speaker 1: Bauer for Cy Young. In your right up, tell people 882 00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:58,960 Speaker 1: right now your favorites for Cy Young n L m 883 00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:04,000 Speaker 1: v P an A O m v P Yes. So 884 00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,239 Speaker 1: there's certain criteria that you just need to need to 885 00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:08,000 Speaker 1: hit in order to be able to get in the conversation. 886 00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,760 Speaker 1: So I usually pick off about three or four guys 887 00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,759 Speaker 1: in easially for Cy Young, and then I just stick 888 00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:16,960 Speaker 1: with one person in each league for m v P UM, 889 00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:19,440 Speaker 1: so we're going by m VPS. I have Jose Ramirez 890 00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,680 Speaker 1: in the AL. I think the Indians in general are 891 00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,560 Speaker 1: just a little bit undervalued, and he takes all the boxes. 892 00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,719 Speaker 1: I believe he's third and wins above replacement since the 893 00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,439 Speaker 1: midpoint of the TIN season, and that includes time where 894 00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,799 Speaker 1: he missed most of September, so there's just tons of 895 00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:38,000 Speaker 1: upside with Ramirez. He looked like a completely transformed hitter 896 00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:40,799 Speaker 1: after struggling earlier in that season, and he's kind of 897 00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:42,880 Speaker 1: on an island relative to his teammates in terms of 898 00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,400 Speaker 1: offensive output. So if if Cleveland ends up winning the 899 00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:48,120 Speaker 1: Al Central, he's probably going to be the reason why, 900 00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,000 Speaker 1: and he's certainly gonna have the numbers to claim it. 901 00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:54,120 Speaker 1: But really, my most confident player, future player that I 902 00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,440 Speaker 1: want to have stock in, is Juan Soto. Um people 903 00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,920 Speaker 1: realize that he's great, but I don't think they realized 904 00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:03,439 Speaker 1: context of how great he is. Four of the six 905 00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,640 Speaker 1: projection systems that I rely on have him already is 906 00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,200 Speaker 1: a better hitter than Mike Trout. If you look at 907 00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,040 Speaker 1: historical context, if you talk to scouts, if you talk 908 00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:14,800 Speaker 1: to managers who are around for it during that time, 909 00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:17,480 Speaker 1: the comp on him is Ted Williams. And if you 910 00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:19,880 Speaker 1: look at the filters for data in terms of what 911 00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,000 Speaker 1: they've already put up through age, they're the only two 912 00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:25,440 Speaker 1: players in MLB history with a walk rate grader than 913 00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:30,680 Speaker 1: home run puls walk rate and a season with more 914 00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,600 Speaker 1: walks than strikeouts where they led the legan on base percentage. Again, 915 00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:37,160 Speaker 1: the only two baseball players in history through a Juan 916 00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:41,279 Speaker 1: Soto and Ted Williams. So man, I think Sotos live 917 00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,360 Speaker 1: for a triple crown, not just this year, but in 918 00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:46,120 Speaker 1: the future. UM, I only have him for m v 919 00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:48,279 Speaker 1: P A plus eight fifty I have from most home 920 00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:50,520 Speaker 1: runs in eighteen and one. I like that to fifteen one. 921 00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,399 Speaker 1: Soto is a guy I'm heavily invested in. I think 922 00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,520 Speaker 1: the gram is kind of as close as you can 923 00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:57,960 Speaker 1: get to a lock for n L. S I Young 924 00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:01,680 Speaker 1: if he stays healthy. His a city actually increased last year. 925 00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,640 Speaker 1: The guys seemingly getting better with age converted. Shortstop doesn't 926 00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:07,400 Speaker 1: have as much mileage on his arm as other pictures 927 00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,359 Speaker 1: that can do him do so. I really like the ground. 928 00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:11,880 Speaker 1: But there's some other long shots in the ANIL and 929 00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:13,640 Speaker 1: taking a look at my PreO, one of which is 930 00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:17,920 Speaker 1: probably Brandon would ruff one. You've been big on the 931 00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:19,960 Speaker 1: Brewers on this podcast, but rud Or if he is 932 00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:21,960 Speaker 1: going to be a big driver their successes here. He's 933 00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:23,719 Speaker 1: a work horse. He's gonna get the two hundred innings, 934 00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,879 Speaker 1: probably two hundred strikeouts of peace days healthy. And I'm 935 00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:29,400 Speaker 1: on a L side. I really like the improvements that 936 00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:32,600 Speaker 1: kent Onmaly made last season with the Twins. It's rare 937 00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:34,360 Speaker 1: that you have a picture or a player lead the 938 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:39,440 Speaker 1: Dodgers and find improvements, but his Vacoda protections are extremely optimistic. 939 00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,919 Speaker 1: They have his ear A close to about three point 940 00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,200 Speaker 1: to five, so he's right up with the leaders in 941 00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,720 Speaker 1: the A l. If he gets thirty turns and averages 942 00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:50,040 Speaker 1: six innings per start and has better ratios, he's a 943 00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,360 Speaker 1: really good defense behind him. If he has better ratios 944 00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:53,719 Speaker 1: and the guys who are little bit ahead of him 945 00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,680 Speaker 1: and strike out, it's like Giolito and like Derek Cole, 946 00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,000 Speaker 1: he's gonna be in the conversation. He finished second last 947 00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:01,360 Speaker 1: year behind Shane Bieber, who's the ananimous, so he's already 948 00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:03,640 Speaker 1: on the minds of voters. So Kent to my head 949 00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:05,840 Speaker 1: is a long shot. I think it's certainly worth the 950 00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,600 Speaker 1: price of the ticket. And I love that you just 951 00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:10,320 Speaker 1: have in the player props. That's one of my favorite 952 00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:12,360 Speaker 1: things at Bedford Baseball. I like the long shots, the 953 00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:14,960 Speaker 1: home runs or most kids are different things like that. 954 00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:16,440 Speaker 1: So it's when in Colin do you have a like 955 00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,400 Speaker 1: a player? He said so too. I looked at his 956 00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:21,279 Speaker 1: home run proper. Are there any guys you're looking at 957 00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:22,759 Speaker 1: the lead the league and Horme runs that you think 958 00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:25,319 Speaker 1: there's really good value on for the prop? Yeah, I'll 959 00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:27,920 Speaker 1: have to pace myself here because I talked about it 960 00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,680 Speaker 1: at length and the Action Network Baseball preview back when 961 00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,480 Speaker 1: we cut that I think January or February. But I 962 00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:36,719 Speaker 1: cannot believe that ti Oscar Hernandez came out at five 963 00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,080 Speaker 1: one to win the home run Zips has him I 964 00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:44,200 Speaker 1: think six or seven home runs off of like who 965 00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:45,920 Speaker 1: they project to have the most hormons. That might have 966 00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,239 Speaker 1: been Pete Alonzo. I'm not sure, but Tioscar Hernandez is 967 00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:53,239 Speaker 1: the kind of guy that you absolutely want to look 968 00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:56,000 Speaker 1: for when it comes to value and the fact that 969 00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:59,719 Speaker 1: they are ascending in the world of power. And there's 970 00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:01,480 Speaker 1: a lot lot of other outside factors that are going 971 00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:04,160 Speaker 1: on with the Blue Jays, but hey, he is in 972 00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:07,720 Speaker 1: the penthouse of this lineup. He's batting fourth, in between 973 00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:11,719 Speaker 1: Bo Baschette, He's right above Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He has 974 00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:14,360 Speaker 1: got just the most perfect spot in the most perfect 975 00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:17,680 Speaker 1: offensive lineup. And so I mentioned him so much for like, 976 00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,520 Speaker 1: you know, winning the home run crown, uh, like being 977 00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:23,200 Speaker 1: an outside m VP candidate. If the Blue Jays make 978 00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,640 Speaker 1: a run and win the division, which is completely you know, 979 00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:27,719 Speaker 1: that's more of a long shot I'd rather take him 980 00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,600 Speaker 1: for home runs. But I've been rostering him in fantasy 981 00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,320 Speaker 1: baseball for years, and the reason is because his street. 982 00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:35,480 Speaker 1: He's always been streaky in power, like you're gonna get 983 00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:37,239 Speaker 1: eight home runs in one week and then you'll get 984 00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:39,240 Speaker 1: nothing for the next week. So he's a great DFS 985 00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:42,720 Speaker 1: play or a Fantasy baseball play. But then in nineteen 986 00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:45,879 Speaker 1: he got very consistent with his home runs, and last 987 00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,840 Speaker 1: year he hit sixteen home runs in less than fifty 988 00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:52,120 Speaker 1: His ISO went way up, his exit velocity went up 989 00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:53,919 Speaker 1: two miles per hour, and he said, it's only two 990 00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:57,239 Speaker 1: miles per hour the league average in exit velocity because 991 00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,800 Speaker 1: they're screwing around with the ball. It went down to 992 00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,480 Speaker 1: miles an hour. So as everybody else had a lower 993 00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,920 Speaker 1: exit velocity, has actually ticked up two miles an hour. Uh, 994 00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:08,560 Speaker 1: he's projected about fourth. Like I said, tons of line 995 00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:10,480 Speaker 1: of protection. And then the one thing that you've got 996 00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:12,959 Speaker 1: to look at is his spray chart. His spray chart 997 00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:16,520 Speaker 1: is all left field, poll left center. And if you 998 00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:19,760 Speaker 1: haven't known, the Toronto Blue Jays are playing down in Dunedin. 999 00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:23,480 Speaker 1: Right there single a Florida State League ballpark where they 1000 00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:26,120 Speaker 1: do their spring training. Go up and pull up a 1001 00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:29,040 Speaker 1: wind map of how it looks in that town with 1002 00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:31,880 Speaker 1: that ballpark, and where the wind blows it is straight 1003 00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,640 Speaker 1: out to left. And I know it was because that's 1004 00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:36,879 Speaker 1: the last time we had minor league baseball. But if 1005 00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:39,080 Speaker 1: you look at park factors, and yes, I'm that big 1006 00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:41,040 Speaker 1: of a dork, if you look at park factors for 1007 00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:44,600 Speaker 1: single A baseball, that was the second highest home run 1008 00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:48,360 Speaker 1: rate for for all of the teams that part dunedin. 1009 00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,440 Speaker 1: Uh So you know, if they're single A team is 1010 00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:53,920 Speaker 1: jack and bombs out of that park. What is ti 1011 00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:57,239 Speaker 1: Oscar Hernandez gonna do with all that exit velocity? Right? 1012 00:48:57,280 --> 00:49:00,640 Speaker 1: And his spray chart matches the wind perfectly. Sign me 1013 00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:04,839 Speaker 1: up for what was a five one three, one two one. 1014 00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:08,600 Speaker 1: I think I've seen some sixty two one still out there. 1015 00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:12,040 Speaker 1: I love it. I absolutely love that problem. Yeah, I 1016 00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:13,640 Speaker 1: think Colin nailed it with the Blue Jays. I think 1017 00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:15,840 Speaker 1: the Blue Jays are gonna swing so many fantasy leagues 1018 00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,600 Speaker 1: this year, positive or negative, depending on those part plays out. 1019 00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:22,080 Speaker 1: But man, I have Vladimir Guerrero Junior fift in my 1020 00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:25,360 Speaker 1: RBI projections, and everyone around him in my projections is 1021 00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:27,719 Speaker 1: listed between twenty five and thirty two one for Moost 1022 00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:29,600 Speaker 1: rb i's you can get him at sixty two one 1023 00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:31,839 Speaker 1: a fandle. That's one of my favorite profits out there 1024 00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,000 Speaker 1: right now. The precess doesn't make sense. You should be 1025 00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,759 Speaker 1: half that number of based upon the projections. So if 1026 00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:39,320 Speaker 1: you're looking for more of a long shot though, you know, 1027 00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:42,560 Speaker 1: alongside Colin in the home run market, mcgilson knows the 1028 00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,000 Speaker 1: guy I've been on for a couple of years now. 1029 00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,480 Speaker 1: His power metrics are off the charts. He's been amongst 1030 00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:49,920 Speaker 1: the highest in barrels per played appearance for a few 1031 00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,960 Speaker 1: years now. Just has insane power. It really comes down 1032 00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:56,120 Speaker 1: to playing time for him at this point, and I 1033 00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,400 Speaker 1: like to target guys who have shown power who if 1034 00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:00,680 Speaker 1: they can improve one skill, which would be contact rate, 1035 00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:03,200 Speaker 1: we're gonna explode. So there's fifty home runs in that 1036 00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,879 Speaker 1: bat and you can get him at I think greater 1037 00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:07,719 Speaker 1: than fifty one in a lot of places, but as 1038 00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:10,760 Speaker 1: high as to one it at one book, So definitely 1039 00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:12,520 Speaker 1: shop around for a really good number on to know. 1040 00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:15,680 Speaker 1: And then one of my sneaky favorite props right now, 1041 00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,719 Speaker 1: it's it's actually a most saves prop on Trevor Rosenthal 1042 00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:22,200 Speaker 1: he signed late with the A's. He's replacing William Hendricks, 1043 00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,239 Speaker 1: who led the American League and staves or led all 1044 00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:27,640 Speaker 1: of baseball and saves since the midpoint of the nine season, 1045 00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,960 Speaker 1: so he certainly got the opportunities to convert those days 1046 00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:35,279 Speaker 1: rebounded from Tommy John was awful the first year coming back, 1047 00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:39,120 Speaker 1: had career best rates across the board. Last year was 1048 00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:43,239 Speaker 1: absolutely tremendous. He's eighth on my saves leaderboard. Everyone around 1049 00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:46,920 Speaker 1: him is in the ten to fourteen range, so one 1050 00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,319 Speaker 1: even or better. I really like Rosenthald for most days. 1051 00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:53,480 Speaker 1: You know what you guys have done. You have made 1052 00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:57,480 Speaker 1: me so excited to sit in front of the television 1053 00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:01,320 Speaker 1: on April one and watch base ball and think about 1054 00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:06,399 Speaker 1: Zarillo's projections. And by the way, everything Zarillo is talking about, 1055 00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:09,840 Speaker 1: everything Colin is talking about go read it in the 1056 00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:15,200 Speaker 1: Action Network gap. It's free downloaded. Follow all of Zarillo's projections. 1057 00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:19,359 Speaker 1: You can get detailed information that goes even further than 1058 00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,520 Speaker 1: these guys did in this podcast. Listen to the Action 1059 00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:26,520 Speaker 1: Network podcast. They recorded another one. The recording another one 1060 00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:32,520 Speaker 1: tomorrow to come out in advance of opening day on Thursday. 1061 00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,719 Speaker 1: It's phenomenal, honest to God, like I want to be 1062 00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:40,840 Speaker 1: thinking about park factors and wind and spray charts. That 1063 00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:44,799 Speaker 1: just it makes baseball sound. It gets rid of all 1064 00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:47,440 Speaker 1: the bullshit about the ball, all the bullshit about the 1065 00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:52,759 Speaker 1: piece of play. It just gets interesting. The numbers game chat. 1066 00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,399 Speaker 1: There's there's nothing more fun than solving number puzzles when 1067 00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:57,279 Speaker 1: when you think you have an advantage over somebody else. 1068 00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:01,160 Speaker 1: So listen, if you I see some larity's other sports, 1069 00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:03,160 Speaker 1: like if you like betting, horse racing, stuff like that, 1070 00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:05,720 Speaker 1: you know, I think it's fun to bet on different 1071 00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:07,759 Speaker 1: sports because you can date different pieces of it and 1072 00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:10,359 Speaker 1: apply it to different things. And really you're just playing 1073 00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:12,359 Speaker 1: numbers puzzle and trying to figure out how to put 1074 00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,920 Speaker 1: a portfolio together that will give you expected value at 1075 00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,239 Speaker 1: the end of the year. I think the first month 1076 00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:19,040 Speaker 1: of the MLB season is going to be the most 1077 00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:21,239 Speaker 1: wild that we've had in a long time. And the 1078 00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:24,080 Speaker 1: reason I say that is because there was no minor 1079 00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:27,920 Speaker 1: league baseball in You're eighteen and nineteen year olds are 1080 00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:30,600 Speaker 1: now twenty and twenty one year olds. They're they're developing 1081 00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:33,360 Speaker 1: a lot more. Uh, you are going to have to 1082 00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:37,960 Speaker 1: adjust overnight too. Pictures and hitters I mean, I'm going 1083 00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:41,200 Speaker 1: through with my Kansas City Royals. This Bobby Whitkid, junior 1084 00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:44,759 Speaker 1: kid is absolutely on fire. I think he could win 1085 00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:47,360 Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year. And he did not look anything 1086 00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:50,080 Speaker 1: like this two years ago when he was playing in 1087 00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:52,759 Speaker 1: low A ball. Uh So, whatever has happened during the 1088 00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:56,080 Speaker 1: pandemic in twenty he's a completely different player. I think 1089 00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,279 Speaker 1: that's going to apply to a lot of the prospects 1090 00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:00,960 Speaker 1: at all of these teams. These are the most loaded 1091 00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:04,920 Speaker 1: rookie of your races I can ever remember in my lifetime. 1092 00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:07,520 Speaker 1: Probably for baseball. There's just so many guys like Randy 1093 00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:09,799 Speaker 1: Rosa Rainow, who was the World Series Star last year, 1094 00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:13,080 Speaker 1: who have carried over their rookie eligibility status. I mean, 1095 00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:15,280 Speaker 1: it's hard to even bet any of these guys because 1096 00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:18,640 Speaker 1: there's probably twenty candidates and easily a good one. Well listen, 1097 00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:21,480 Speaker 1: I think it's appropriate that we opened the Baseball Potion 1098 00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:26,280 Speaker 1: into the podcast with Colin Wilson talking about watching college baseball, 1099 00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:29,760 Speaker 1: and we end it with Colin Wilson talking about watching 1100 00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:35,040 Speaker 1: single A baseball For Royal's prospects. Gotta follow the beat. 1101 00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:41,640 Speaker 1: Reporter in Wilmington's Chad unbelievable. Listen Baseball opening Day April one. 1102 00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,200 Speaker 1: Get everything in need in the Action Network at Follow Seanzillo, 1103 00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:48,040 Speaker 1: follow Colin Wilson for my co host, Simon Hunter. I 1104 00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:52,160 Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites podcast from 1105 00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:56,080 Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday 1106 00:53:56,160 --> 00:54:01,719 Speaker 1: with the thunder Dome addition, Mad Cat Trivia. Down on 1107 00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:05,359 Speaker 1: the podcast from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get 1108 00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:13,440 Speaker 1: your podcast. Until next time, I love you, yeah h