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Speaker 1: The first thing that comes for me was like this

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Speaker 1: pool where you could bet on the price of some

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Speaker 1: La Boo Boo release that's about to happen. You know,

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Speaker 1: Is it gonna be more than one hundred and twenty dollars?

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Speaker 1: Are they gonna be more than one hundred and thirty dollars?

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Speaker 1: It's like, I really was, like I can't imagine trying

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Speaker 1: to explain this to myself five years ago. But that's

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Speaker 1: where we're at.

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Speaker 2: Emily Stewart is a senior correspondent at Business Insider. One

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Speaker 2: of her beats is gambling, and that's been getting pretty

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Speaker 2: weird recently because people aren't just betting on sports now,

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Speaker 2: they're betting on real life. Okay, betting on whether or

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Speaker 2: not the next Lab Boo Boo job is gonna be

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Speaker 2: over or under one hundred and thirty dollars. Okay, you

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Speaker 2: don't know, I don't know. Some buddy has a friend

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Speaker 2: who works at Loo Boo Wu Incorporated or whatever it is,

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Speaker 2: and they know and they can just say, hey, look,

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Speaker 2: I'm about to put a g on one of these

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Speaker 2: size how much is it going to be? I'll split

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Speaker 2: it with you boom five hundred. That just seems right

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Speaker 2: for manipulations, insider trading, whatever you want to call it.

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Speaker 1: The CEO of poly Market did an interview the other

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Speaker 1: day with Axios and they asked him about this.

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Speaker 3: Nobody is under the impression that nobody knows the answer, right,

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Speaker 3: And I think what's cool about polymarket is that it

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Speaker 3: creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge

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Speaker 3: the information to the market and the market to change.

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Speaker 1: When you say divulge, you mean the people who actually know.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, or if someone tells someone and then the market responds.

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Speaker 1: He kind of hinted at that, like this is sort

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Speaker 1: of the point of prediction markets. Like the idea is

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Speaker 1: that they are supposed to like predict right, like the

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Speaker 1: wisdom of the craft, et cetera, et cetera. So does

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Speaker 1: some extent. That's kind of the way it's supposed to go.

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Speaker 1: Your friend who works at lavoovo tells you, and then

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Speaker 1: you tell other people and like the crowd figures it

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Speaker 1: out right.

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Speaker 2: That's why I wanted to talk to Emily. She's been

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Speaker 2: covering the rise of gambling for the past few years

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Speaker 2: and detailing this movement to turn everything into a casino,

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Speaker 2: and her latest article on this is titled appropriately enough,

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Speaker 2: Everything's Casino. You have a line in your article that

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Speaker 2: says the answer to, hey, is all of this activity

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Speaker 2: on prediction markets kosher seems to be shruggy emoticon and

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Speaker 2: shameless plug. You can also watch this show on YouTube

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Speaker 2: if you'd like to see this. But there is a

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Speaker 2: shruggy emoji on the screen right now, because that's probably

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Speaker 2: the best explanation I can think of. Where we're at

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Speaker 2: right now is like, I don't know, this.

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Speaker 1: Is like pretty stereotypical to say it, like, it's like

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Speaker 1: the Wild West a little bit right now, and it

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Speaker 1: has been for a while.

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Speaker 2: From Kaleidoscope and iHeart podcasts. This is kill.

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Speaker 4: Switch, I'm dexter Thomas, i'morring, I'm goodbye.

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Speaker 2: What would you say it was? It really started this

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Speaker 2: boom that we're in in gambling in the US right now.

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Speaker 5: I do think a.

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Speaker 1: Lot of it does come to sports betting. Right So,

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Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, the Supreme Court struck down a federal

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Speaker 1: law saying that sports gambling was illegal in the United States,

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Speaker 1: and then a bunch of states started to legalize it.

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Speaker 1: And you know, they say that they have good reasons

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Speaker 1: for this, that it's a good source of tax revenue.

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Speaker 1: Never mind that tax revenue goes to like gambling addiction programs.

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Speaker 1: But they start to see that this is a waiter

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Speaker 1: is money, and right now in the thirty eight states

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Speaker 1: have legalized sports gambling.

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Speaker 2: Over the past few years, sports betting in the US

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Speaker 2: has exploded close to one in four Americans who participated

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Speaker 2: in sports betting over the last year. And all that

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Speaker 2: betting last year generated about thirteen point seven billion dollars

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Speaker 2: in revenue for the sports betting companies obviously, and the

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Speaker 2: overall betting market is projected to reach over sixty billion

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Speaker 2: dollars by the end of the decade. So who are

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Speaker 2: these betting companies. Well, for all intents and purposes, there's

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Speaker 2: basically two. FanDuel and DraftKings. Together they control about eighty

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Speaker 2: percent of the US market. Both of these companies started

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Speaker 2: out as apps for fantasy sports, where you make up

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Speaker 2: pretend sports teams to compete against your friends and pretend

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Speaker 2: sports teams you know, fun little howy while you watch

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Speaker 2: the game. But after the Supreme Court opened the door

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Speaker 2: to legal sports betting, both those companies pivoted fast.

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Speaker 5: So basically in like twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: Sports gambling started in New York and it was like

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Speaker 1: literally everywhere, you could not escape it. It was really

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Speaker 1: like on every ad, on every channel. And also what

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Speaker 1: a lot of these companies were doing was giving you

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Speaker 1: like free money to bet with and so a lot

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Speaker 1: of people did that and I made like three hundred

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Speaker 1: and four hundred dollars off of it. I knew people

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Speaker 1: who made like three thousand dollars off of it.

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Speaker 2: Oh so you partook, I partook.

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Speaker 1: And I will say a lot of these companies have

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Speaker 1: stopped giving those away because people figured out how to

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Speaker 1: gain them. It was just one of those things where

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Speaker 1: like sports gambling was everywhere, and I was like, well,

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Speaker 1: what's all the hullabaloo about?

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Speaker 5: And it felt like every bar, every sporting event.

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Speaker 1: You know, you go to a basketball game now and

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Speaker 1: there's a group of twenty year olds in front.

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Speaker 5: Of you who are on FanDuel placing bets.

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Speaker 2: When most people thought about gamblers, you'd have these images

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Speaker 2: of casinos in Las Vegas, maybe people wearing some Oceans

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Speaker 2: eleven type suits, people gathered around a poker table, or

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Speaker 2: maybe just someone chain smoking in front of a slot machine.

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Speaker 2: But today a realistic picture of a gambler is a

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Speaker 2: little different. It's mostly just someone staring at their phone.

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Speaker 1: Your phone's right in your pocket. It's real easy to do,

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Speaker 1: it's real fun to do. Gambling is entertainment. Gambling is

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Speaker 1: a form of fun, and it is a way I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, for young men to bond. And what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing now, especially with sports betting, is it's really been

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Speaker 1: embraced kind of by everyone, you know, like the announcers

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Speaker 1: are listing out there.

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Speaker 2: Parlays, Okay, A parlay is a bet that links multiple

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Speaker 2: small bets together, So like you could bet that your

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Speaker 2: team will win, or you could bet that your team

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Speaker 2: will win and that they'll win in double overtime and

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Speaker 2: that the winning point will be a field goal. There's

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Speaker 2: a pretty small chance of all that happening in a chain,

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Speaker 2: but if all those bets do come true, the payout

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Speaker 2: can be huge. Sports leagues in the US used to

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Speaker 2: really resist betting that were that it would impact the

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Speaker 2: integrity of the game, but illegal betting markets continue to

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Speaker 2: grow and the leagues started to change their tomb I am.

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Speaker 5: A Packer fan.

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Speaker 1: R I'm from Wisconsin, like, so usually I would just

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Speaker 1: watch like the Packer game right, But if I'm betting

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Speaker 1: on all of these games, suddenly you know, these guys

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Speaker 1: are watching all Sunday, They're watching every single game, and

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Speaker 1: that's happening too on Saturday when they're betting on college sports.

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Speaker 1: A big part of what's happening here is like everybody's

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Speaker 1: figured out that this is a big way to make money,

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Speaker 1: and all these sports leagues that were kind of like

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Speaker 1: icked about it have suddenly recognized the opportunity.

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Speaker 2: When you open one of these apps, it's got pretty

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Speaker 2: much every sports league you'd expect listed across the top.

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Speaker 2: There's the NFL, the MLB, the NBA, the UFC, along

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Speaker 2: with some leagues that you probably not only didn't realize

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Speaker 2: that you could bet on, but that you probably didn't

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Speaker 2: even realize exist. Tap into those leagues and it drops

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Speaker 2: you into a menu of games that are happening right now.

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Speaker 2: The odds are updating in real time, and there's flashy

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Speaker 2: promos trying to pull you into a bet. And for example,

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Speaker 2: if you're watching an NBA game on League Pass, you

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Speaker 2: can actually sink your fan Duel account so that your

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Speaker 2: live bets show up right on the screen as you

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Speaker 2: watch the whole experience is built to keep you exploring,

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Speaker 2: keep you tapping, and keep you betting.

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Speaker 1: They're honestly well designed. I'll go in and open it up.

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Speaker 1: In it like lists out for me, like what are

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Speaker 1: live games? Maybe I just wanted to gamble on I

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Speaker 1: don't know, like the Chiefs this weekend, but I wonder

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Speaker 1: what's going on now so I can get that kind

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Speaker 1: of like instant gratification quick hit. And they also do

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Speaker 1: try to entice you to take like harder bets to win,

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Speaker 1: but they offer like a bonus. So let's say you

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Speaker 1: do like a five game parlay or whatever, but you

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Speaker 1: would win extra if you were to win, but like

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Speaker 1: the odds are very very low that you are.

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Speaker 2: Going to win. There's even social pages that show the

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Speaker 2: bets that your friends are making. It makes betting something

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Speaker 2: social so that you check in on it like you

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Speaker 2: check social media. A lot of the things that you're

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Speaker 2: describing are things that you see on TikTok or things

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Speaker 2: that you see on Instagram. It can figure out something

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Speaker 2: that Okay, you're interested in betting off football games, how

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Speaker 2: about you bet on this baseball game.

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Speaker 1: When I recorded on this last year, I talked to

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Speaker 1: an expert who kind of like compared some of these

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Speaker 1: apps to like dating apps or even you know, like

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Speaker 1: a thought machine. Right, it's like very solitary activity and

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Speaker 1: it's just kind of like endless. If you're on a

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Speaker 1: baseball game, you can bet on every pitch. Like I

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Speaker 1: have a good friend here in New York who I

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Speaker 1: think has like a flight gambling problem, but not the biggest,

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Speaker 1: And sometimes I'll look over at him and we'll be

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Speaker 1: at a bar and watching a game and I realize,

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Speaker 1: like he's betting on every single pitch that's going to happen,

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Speaker 1: or he'll ask me, do you think this is going

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Speaker 1: to be a touchdown or not?

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Speaker 5: And he's like, not a sports guy, just like scambling.

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Speaker 2: So maybe you're not a sports guy, or let's just

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Speaker 2: keep it gender neutral. Maybe you're not into sports. Well

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Speaker 2: that's okay, because these sports gambling apps have realized that

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Speaker 2: they can keep making money off of you by expanding

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Speaker 2: the things beyond sports.

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Speaker 1: So last year DraftKings they bought a lottery company, right,

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Speaker 1: and you're like, well, wait, what's kind of like an

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Speaker 1: online lottery? And that's because again, like, okay, we got

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Speaker 1: you into sports gambling, but maybe like, oh you we

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Speaker 1: like the lottery too, or even like you know, Caesars

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Speaker 1: and MGM have sports betting apps, and what's going on

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Speaker 1: with the casinos is like their population is aging, right,

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Speaker 1: like a lot of like twenty two year olds or not.

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Speaker 1: Maybe hitting up Vegas certainly not Atlantic City, but it's

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Speaker 1: a way to get you in the door. Maybe you

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Speaker 1: start sports betting and suddenly they say like, hey, why

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Speaker 1: don't you come visit us in Las Vegas, and hey,

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Speaker 1: now you're a member of our little rewards club or whatever.

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Speaker 1: I was talking to this guy named Chris Grove who's

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Speaker 1: like a gambling investor out in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 5: And he made a point to me.

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Speaker 1: He was like, you know a lot of these companies

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Speaker 1: are betting that once you've bet on one thing, you'll

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Speaker 1: bet on another thing. That is really really played out

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Speaker 1: where I think Americans have gotten sort of, you know,

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Speaker 1: a real taste for them, and it really shows up everywhere. Right.

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Speaker 5: Once you get a taste for it, you start to

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Speaker 5: figure why not.

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Speaker 1: And you know, if the prediction markets right now are

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Speaker 1: really spreading in the United States, and that's wheally he

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Speaker 1: predict event outcomes, and they're really jumping in on sports

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Speaker 1: gambling because that's a good like it's not a gateway drug,

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Speaker 1: but it's a gateway to something.

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Speaker 2: The gateway to gambling on everything. That's where prediction markets

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Speaker 2: come in, and we'll get into how those are taken

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Speaker 2: over and kind of eating sports betting's lunch after the break.

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Speaker 2: So in twenty twenty four, in the lead up to

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Speaker 2: the US presidential election, we started to see a new

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Speaker 2: trend in gambling betting on real world events.

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Speaker 3: The thing that is undeniable was the night of the election,

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Speaker 3: poly market was the first destination to basically convey that's

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Speaker 3: trumpet one.

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Speaker 2: That's Shane Copeland, the CEO of Paul, the same guy

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Speaker 2: from that Axios interview that we played earlier.

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Speaker 3: We were in the office and we were looking at

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Speaker 3: the odds and it looked like a done deal. And

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Speaker 3: if you were just watching TV, you would think it's

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Speaker 3: neck and neck.

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Speaker 1: These companies like do have this high minded thing of

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Speaker 1: we want to focus on the wisdom of the crowds

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Speaker 1: and people will put their money where their mouth is

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Speaker 1: in politics. They will say this is actually a better

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Speaker 1: indicator than the polls because people are actually like investing

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Speaker 1: their money in this.

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Speaker 2: Prediction markets sell shares and answers to questions about the future.

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Speaker 2: So if you think something will happen, you buy yes shares.

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Speaker 2: If you think it won't happen, you buy no shares.

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Speaker 2: As more people trade, the prices move up and down,

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Speaker 2: and those prices work like odds about how likely the

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Speaker 2: event is. So let me just give you some examples

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Speaker 2: from right now when I'm recording this episode. Here's one.

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Speaker 2: Do you think that Trump will use the word communism

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Speaker 2: this week, either in a press conference or online? If

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Speaker 2: you do, you can bet on it. Current markets are

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Speaker 2: predicting sixty six percent odds of that happening. Okay, here's

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Speaker 2: another one. Do you think that Zoron Mumdani will be

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Speaker 2: Times Person of the Year. So there's actually a potential

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Speaker 2: leverage opportunity here because the markets say only two percent yes.

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Speaker 2: Or you can go with the safer bet, go with

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Speaker 2: the crowd because sixty four percent of people are betting

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Speaker 2: yes to artificial intelligence being the person of the year.

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Speaker 2: Or if you just bet on the weather, you can

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Speaker 2: bet on whether or not the temperature will hit between

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Speaker 2: forty six and forty seven degrees fahrenheit today in New York.

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Speaker 2: If it doesn't make it, there or if it goes

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Speaker 2: higher than that, you lose all your money and so on.

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Speaker 2: You get the idea. So where do you make these bets? Well,

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Speaker 2: right now there's two main players and prediction markets kal

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Speaker 2: She and Polymarket.

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Speaker 1: They're both pretty new, like pandemic era things. Kalshi is

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Speaker 1: right now up and running in the US. You can

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Speaker 1: go on and use it. Poly Market was in the

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Speaker 1: US for a while and then got into some hot water,

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Speaker 1: and twenty twenty two they're on their way back right now.

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Speaker 2: Polymarket had to stop operating in the United States in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two because they were running without proper registration.

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Speaker 2: But in twenty twenty five they just bought a derivative

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Speaker 2: exchange that had just gotten an approved registration from the

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Speaker 2: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which could pave the way for

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Speaker 2: them to operate again legally in the United States. And Okay,

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Speaker 2: that was a whole lot of mumbo jumbo. So let's

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Speaker 2: just get to the point here. How is it that

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Speaker 2: these things can be legal?

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Speaker 1: The way that they say they are legal is not

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Speaker 1: that like laws of regulations have changed, but basically they

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Speaker 1: seem to have found a loophole to say that they

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Speaker 1: should be regulated by the Commodities Features Trading Commissions, the CFTC,

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Speaker 1: because traditionally, like gambling has really been regulated by the states,

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Speaker 1: and they say, actually, like we're doing events contracts, we're

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Speaker 1: doing a different thing, and the CFTC says whether or

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Speaker 1: not we should exist, and Trump's CFTC has basically said

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Speaker 1: sounds good.

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Speaker 2: Or to summarize all that, under federal law, a platform

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Speaker 2: like call she can operate because they're registered to something

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Speaker 2: called a designated contract market. In that framework, their bets

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Speaker 2: aren't treated like casino gambling. They're treated more like financial contracts,

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Speaker 2: as in, you and I agree to sign a contract

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Speaker 2: where if this happens, you pay me, and if that happens,

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Speaker 2: I pay you. Just on a bigger scale.

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Speaker 1: Polymarket is about to get an investment of up to

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Speaker 1: two billion dollars from the parent company of the New

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Speaker 1: York Stock Exchange. I think both of them have involvement

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Speaker 1: from dollars from juniors, and then the president and family

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Speaker 1: are involved in prediction markets, they're in crypto, They are

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Speaker 1: involved in some of this stuff for sure.

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Speaker 2: And they're only getting more popular. As of December, call

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Speaker 2: Shee was valued at eleven billion dollars, and Polymarket is

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Speaker 2: rumored to be not too far behind that. And part

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Speaker 2: of what's fueling that growth is the regulatory gap that

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Speaker 2: has allowed call she for now at least, to offer

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Speaker 2: these event based contracts and sports even in states where

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Speaker 2: traditional sports betting is banned.

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Speaker 1: Right now, if you're in a state where sports gambling

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Speaker 1: is not legal, I was just in the Midwest and Wisconsin,

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Speaker 1: sports gambling is not allowed there, members of my family

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Speaker 1: go across the border to Illinois, where it is allowed,

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Speaker 1: and sports gamble like your phone knows where you are

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Speaker 1: right what kelshe has says they figured out and eventually

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Speaker 1: Polymarket they say, like, we are not subject to these

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Speaker 1: state regulations. We are regulated by the CFTC. CFTC says

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Speaker 1: we can exist in all fifty states. And so if

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Speaker 1: you're in California, where sports betting is not allowed in

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Speaker 1: Texas other states, you can go on to calshe and

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Speaker 1: there will be something on there that says, you know, well,

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Speaker 1: ex team win tomorrow, yes, no, and you can do that.

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Speaker 1: They say it's not gambling. They kind of will hedge

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Speaker 1: on whether it's betting. Kelshy's gone into some hot water

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Speaker 1: because for a while they were advertising saying that you

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Speaker 1: can now sports bet in California, and they say, like

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Speaker 1: that was an oops, and vendor did it and that

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Speaker 1: wasn't our fault.

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Speaker 5: But everybody I talked to for the story we've been

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Speaker 5: talking about it's like this gambling. It's a little silly

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Speaker 5: to pretend like this is not what it is.

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Speaker 2: Call she has different modes, including a sports fan mode

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Speaker 2: that makes the interface look almost identical to apps like

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Speaker 2: FanDuel and DraftKings. And remember when I said earlier that federally,

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Speaker 2: call she can operate, but on the state level, some

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Speaker 2: jurisdictions are not having it. Just recently, the state of

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Speaker 2: Connecticut issued a cease and desist arguing that call she

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Speaker 2: was effectively offering sports betting without a license. Call she countersuit,

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Speaker 2: saying that the Commodities Exchange Act says that they're in

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Speaker 2: the clear. And beyond sports betting, these apps are making

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Speaker 2: their way into anything that can be gambled on or gamified,

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Speaker 2: including the stock market, which honestly was already getting pretty gamified. Robinhood,

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Speaker 2: the stock trading app, has recently partnered with call she

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Speaker 2: to allow NFL and college football trading all inside the

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Speaker 2: Robin hood app One of the reasons I really wanted

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Speaker 2: to talk to is your article, which is entitled Everything's

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Speaker 2: Casino brilliant title. I want to read a little bit

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Speaker 2: from the first paragraph here. I thought the Stock Exchange

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Speaker 2: guys were supposed to be the serious ones in the room,

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Speaker 2: helping communities grow and people save for retirement, not teaming

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Speaker 2: up with the guys who let you guess when the

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Speaker 2: US government will admit that aliens exist. But this is

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Speaker 2: the reality of the Year of Our Lord twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Americans have a growing appetite for leaving their fortunes to

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Speaker 2: the fates, and businesses are eager to capitalize.

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Speaker 5: And to be fair the aliens.

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Speaker 1: You can place that bet on both poly Mark and Kelshi.

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Speaker 1: My editor was like, you have to be joking, and

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Speaker 1: I was like, no, well you you.

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Speaker 5: Can guess it.

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Speaker 1: And so I think there is just like this real

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Speaker 1: confluence here of like the serious people have kind of

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Speaker 1: realized like there's money to be made off of the

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Speaker 1: on serious stuff. You know, you think back to like

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Speaker 1: the game stop stuff for a lot of people was

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Speaker 1: like pretty fun, but some people really want to end

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 2: In case you don't remember the game Stop Saga. In

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, a bunch of investors on Reddit started

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Speaker 2: buying up shares of game Stop, this store that sells

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Speaker 2: video games, and they sent the prices of those shares

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Speaker 2: up over sixteen hundred percent in just a few weeks.

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Speaker 2: Some people made a lot of money, other people lost

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Speaker 2: a lot of money. Robinhood blocked people from being able

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Speaker 2: to buy the stock for a while, which was a

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Speaker 2: whole other thing. There's multiple documentaries about it. Basically it

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Speaker 2: was a mess, and most of that really had almost

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Speaker 2: nothing to do with the actual store that sells video games.

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Speaker 2: It was pretty much just gambling.

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Speaker 1: You look at the crypto market, right and like you

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Speaker 1: have people out there will say, like yes, like bitcoin matters,

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Speaker 1: and there's underline whatever. But like if you're I don't know,

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Speaker 1: if you're investing in like fart coin, like it is

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Speaker 1: not because you believe in like the ongoing value of

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Speaker 1: fart coin, like I certainly hope not, you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean. It's because like you think that like some

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Speaker 1: other guy is gonna pay more for it, hopefully later,

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Speaker 1: and like you can kind of get out of the

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Speaker 1: scam before you get got by the scam.

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Speaker 2: Everybody scamming each other.

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Speaker 5: Everybody scamming each other.

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Speaker 1: Everybody thinks that like, well, maybe I can ride it

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Speaker 1: up type situation. And I think, really, like these companies

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Speaker 1: have realized there is a huge appetite for it, and

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Speaker 1: like once people get an appetite, like they're going to

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Speaker 1: engage in more and more and more. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's where like there's real harm. Like I remember when

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Speaker 1: kind of like the day trading stuff was really taking

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Speaker 1: off during the pandemic, and I would talk to people

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Speaker 1: who'd gotten into like options trading, and the story was

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Speaker 1: always the same. It was like I did a few

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Speaker 1: and I thought I was a stock market genius. That

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Speaker 1: I did a few more, and I got wiped out.

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Speaker 1: And like that's what happens at the casino, right, Like

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Speaker 1: you hit on a couple and then you're up and

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Speaker 1: you should walk away, but you don't, and then you

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Speaker 1: lose it all and you get wiped out.

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Speaker 2: Recently, the co founder of Calls, Trek Mansur, said this

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Speaker 2: to the long term vision is to financialize everything and

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Speaker 2: create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion,

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Speaker 2: that long term vision is kind of already here. In

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Speaker 2: just the last few weeks, call she signed deals with

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Speaker 2: major news networks, first CNN and then CNBC to bring

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Speaker 2: real time prediction market data directly into their news coverage.

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Speaker 2: The CNN deal gives them real time access to data

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Speaker 2: on call sheet and as Axios reports quote, that data

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Speaker 2: will be featured on CNN's air through a real time

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Speaker 2: data ticker and can be referenced across CNN's platforms when

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Speaker 2: journalists discuss news predictions. In quote, the CNBC partnership looks

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Speaker 2: pretty similar. Call She's data is going to be featured

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Speaker 2: on business news programs like squawk Box and Fast Money.

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Speaker 2: They'll also have a dedicated call she on air ticker

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Speaker 2: and a page on the website. As call She's co

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Speaker 2: founder puts it, this is quote the next evolution, moving

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Speaker 2: from data about what's happening now to real time forecasts

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Speaker 2: about what's happening next. Okay, but what's the stop people

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Speaker 2: from manipulating what happens next? That's after the break. Just

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Speaker 2: this month, a polymarket user under the handle Alpha Raccoon

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Speaker 2: reportedly made one million dollars in just twenty four hours.

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Speaker 2: This user correctly predicted twenty two of twenty three bets

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Speaker 2: on Google's twenty twenty five year in search rankings, so

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Speaker 2: confident accurate betting on Google specific topics. This sounds like

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Speaker 2: something that would be pretty difficult to do unless you

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Speaker 2: had some kind of connection to the company. Now, this

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Speaker 2: might sound like I'm accusing this user of insider training,

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Speaker 2: and a lot of people actually have made that accusation,

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Speaker 2: But to be clear, I am not making that accusation.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes people just get lucky. But even if I wanted

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Speaker 2: to make that accusation, honestly, it wouldn't matter because the

435
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 2: CFTC's current rules don't explicitly cover insider training in prediction markets.

436
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 2: So legally speaking, Alpha Raccoon wouldn't have done anything wrong.

437
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: But that's just one way to run it. Even if

438
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 2: you don't have the inside scoop on something, there are

439
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 2: other ways that you could manipulate the results of a bet.

440
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 2: You know. The first time that I really started thinking

441
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: about prediction markets is during the fires here in La

442
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 2: So that was in January, and I saw that people

443
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 2: were betting on anything and everything related to fires. Is

444
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 2: the mayor still going to be in office at the

445
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 2: end of such and such date. But one of the

446
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 2: big ones that I saw was will the fires be

447
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 2: ninety percent contained by X date. And that's when I

448
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 2: really started thinking, Okay, what happens when somebody has a

449
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 2: stake in what happens in a natural disaster or a

450
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 2: real world event.

451
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would certainly hope there's not a firefighter who's like,

452
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to sit this one out because I want

453
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 1: to win. So there's just like something a little bit

454
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 1: gross about beending on something that will affect someone's actual

455
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 1: life and livelihood, especially on the wildfires. That's an area

456
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 1: where like the argument that it's about like the wisdom

457
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 1: of the crowds falls apart a little bit, like somebody

458
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 1: on a prediction market who's in Chicago or abroad has

459
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 1: no idea what's going on with the wildfires, Like they

460
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 1: don't have like some special insight.

461
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 5: And I think that's where it's a little bit like

462
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 5: like do we need to be doing this? What does

463
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 5: it mean that we are doing this? And it's just

464
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 5: like sad as.

465
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 2: A society To be really clear here, it's less that

466
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: I really think somebody is going to go out and

467
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 2: throw a match in the brushes and try to up

468
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 2: their chances on, you know, winning that polymarket bit it's

469
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 2: a little bit like what has happened with sports. And

470
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 2: one of the arguments against having gambling and sports was

471
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 2: that it will ruin our faith in the game, that

472
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 2: people will start manipulating things and we won't be able

473
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: to trust that this sport that we care so much about,

474
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 2: this culture is pure. You expand that to reality, where

475
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 2: the local election is somebody putting their dumb on the

476
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 2: scales in the election of purpose. We already don't trust

477
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 2: local politics. We already don't trust a lot of things.

478
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: Now there's a financial incentive to change all these little

479
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 2: small things, right, And that's kind of what I'm saying

480
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 2: here is like I think you can be watching a

481
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 2: college game and somebody misses a pitch and it really

482
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 2: sucks to be watching a game and think, did he

483
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 2: do that because he's having a bad day, or did

484
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 2: you do that because he wants a payday?

485
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 4: Right?

486
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 5: We don't trust things enough as it is. Let alone,

487
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,880
Speaker 5: where it's like, is there something weird going on here?

488
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 1: Like everything that's happening right now is sports gambling, where

489
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: it isn't like these guys aren't impervious to this stuff.

490
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty four, Toronto Forward John Say Porter was

491
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,879
Speaker 2: banned for life from the NBA when they found out

492
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 2: that he'd been sharing inside information and betting on games,

493
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,439
Speaker 2: including his own teams games. He ended up pleading guilty

494
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 2: to conspiracy to commit wirefraud, saying quote, I know what

495
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 2: I did was wrong, unlawful, and I'm deeply sorry end quote.

496
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 2: He hasn't been sentenced yet, but he's looking at three

497
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 2: to four years in federal prison if prosecutors get their way.

498
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 2: And this year more major gambling accusations came down to

499
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 2: the NBA.

500
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 6: We've got some breaking news this morning. The former Celtics

501
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,679
Speaker 6: Terry Rogier and Chauncey Billups have been arrested in New

502
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 6: York City. Police Department. Sources tell CBS News that the

503
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 6: arrests are in relation to two different federal criminal cases.

504
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 6: One involves a sports betting ring involving former and current

505
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 6: NBA players, including some who allegedly faked injuries.

506
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 1: The other one of them was that like a specific player,

507
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 1: he was like telling people like I am going to

508
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: like Sam injured or I'm sick during this game, right,

509
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 1: and so that way they could take the under on

510
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: how many points he was going to score during the game,

511
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 1: because if he wasn't playing, he wasn't.

512
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:08,360
Speaker 5: Going to score a lot of points.

513
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 1: We were also seeing, you know, it looks like there

514
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 1: was a former player who was passing information about like

515
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 1: Lebron James and saying like he's on the injured list

516
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: or he's not playing tonight, and so then he would

517
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: pass that information on and people would be able to

518
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,399
Speaker 1: bet them that like the Lakers were going to lose.

519
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: Now, as of December, Rosier and Billips have both pled

520
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 2: not guilty in their cases. But gambling apps like these

521
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 2: put athletes in a really weird position.

522
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 5: And then also you know they're probably under pressure from family,

523
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 5: from friends to be like hey, like do you know

524
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 5: what's going on? Do you know who's on the injured list?

525
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 1: And things like that, right, and also the way that

526
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 1: you know, especially now with the apps, like there's a

527
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 1: lot of prop betting going on where it's like it's

528
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 1: not just who will win the game, you can make

529
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 1: all these seeny tiny bets throughout the game.

530
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 5: The abuse that a lot of athletes are getting two

531
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 5: from gamblers and betters, and just like scary messages and

532
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 5: threats and something pretty scary that it's like, you know,

533
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 5: you missed a free throw and some guy is messaging

534
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 5: you on Instagram, like threatening to go after your family

535
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 5: or sending you a venmo request because they lost their

536
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 5: bet on you. And so it's like, it's not great

537
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 5: for fans, and it's also not great for the people

538
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 5: on the field or the court.

539
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 2: For example, it was recently reported in The Athletic that

540
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 2: a Major League Baseball pitcher received a venmo request with

541
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 2: a threatening message that reads, quote, you owe me nine

542
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 2: thousand dollars because you blew the game. I need you

543
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 2: to send me that money or I'm gonna find your family.

544
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 2: The article also quoted an NBA player who says he

545
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 2: got threats over Instagram DM for messing up someone's parlay,

546
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 2: and the stakes can get a lot higher than that.

547
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 2: Four to four recently reported on a really weird situation

548
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 2: involving a live map run by the Institute for the

549
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 2: Study of War, which tracks the front lines of the

550
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 2: war in Ukraine. This map is considered the gold standard

551
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 2: of information. So here's what happened. A bet was placed

552
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 2: on polymarket about whether or not Russia would control a

553
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 2: specific city by a specific date, and there was a

554
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 2: million dollars in trading volume on this and just before

555
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 2: that date came, the map showed that Russia had just

556
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,959
Speaker 2: captured the city. So the bet was settled and all

557
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 2: the money was paid out, and right after that the

558
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 2: map suddenly reverted and it showed that Russia had never

559
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 2: controlled that city, which suggested that someone with edit access

560
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 2: had redrawn the map just before the bet ended.

561
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: Maybe in ten years we'll look back and be like

562
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 1: this was fine and everybody was like setting their hair

563
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 1: on fire for no reason.

564
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 5: But I do sometimes wonder if, for like in.

565
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: Our Marlboro Man moment of smoking was like cool and

566
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: fun before everybody was like holy gee, is like this

567
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 1: is maybe not great? And like right now the narrative

568
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: around so much of this is like it's interesting and fun,

569
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: and then like maybe like some of this stuff is

570
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: a little icky, but like like whatever, it's probably it's

571
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 1: just like quirky and are we gonna soon kind of

572
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: like and think, oh.

573
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 5: Man, this stuff was like really bad in a lot

574
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 5: of ways.

575
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 2: Okay, but where are we going from here? So maybe

576
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 2: it's as Emily writes in our article, that quote, it

577
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,719
Speaker 2: speaks to a sort of nihilism within the American public.

578
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 2: The idea that the system's flawed, so you may as

579
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 2: well go for it with a gamble. So maybe what

580
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 2: we need to understand first is the background of why

581
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 2: this desire to gamble is so strong.

582
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 1: I do think, I mean, this is just like human nature, right,

583
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: and I think like we need to understand like why

584
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 1: people enjoy these things. You just kind of like at

585
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 1: least have to acknowledge, like enough people think this is fun,

586
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 1: So like what's going on here?

587
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 5: And like if it is not going to be outlawed.

588
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 1: Completely, like at least like we got to talk about guardrails.

589
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 5: You got to talk to the people who are into

590
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 5: it to know where the gartreil should be.

591
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for checking out another episode a

592
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: kill Switch. You can email us at kill Switch at

593
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 2: Kaleidoscope dot NYC or on Instagram. We're at kill Switch pod,

594
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 2: and you know, maybe think about leaving us a review.

595
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 2: It helps other people find the show, which in turn

596
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,719
Speaker 2: helps us keep doing our thing. And once you've done that,

597
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 2: as we said earlier in the show, kill Switch is

598
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 2: on YouTube. So if you've been wondering what the Fisker

599
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 2: cars look like or thevtuber avatars look like, you can

600
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 2: find it all there the link for that and everything

601
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 2: else as always is in the show notes. Kill Switch

602
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 2: is hosted by Me Dexter Thomas is produced by Shena Ozaki,

603
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 2: darl Louck Potts and Julian Nutter. Our theme song is

604
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 2: by me and Kyle Murdoch, and Kyle also mixes a

605
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 2: show from Kaleidoscope. Our executive producers are Oswa lashin On,

606
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 2: Guesshatikadur and Kate Osborne from iHeart. Our executive producers a

607
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 2: Katrina Norville and Nikki E. Tor Yo. So one more thing. So,

608
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 2: remember when I was talking about the bet for who

609
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 2: was going to be on Times cover for the Person

610
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 2: of the Year issue, and I was saying that the

611
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 2: quote unquote safe bet because sixty six percent of people

612
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 2: were betting yes on this was artificial intelligence. Well, as

613
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 2: we're editing this right now, the bet has ended because

614
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 2: Times cover has come out and AI is on the

615
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 2: cover in big letters. But you got to read the

616
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 2: whole cover because the full phrase is, well, the winner

617
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 2: this year is plural. It's the architects of AI. So

618
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 2: it's also got a picture of Sam Altman on there.

619
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 2: There's Jensen Wangan and a bunch of other people, and

620
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 2: now a whole bunch of gamblers are big mad because

621
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 2: they bet specifically on AI winning and they feel like

622
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 2: this should count. But both polymarket and Kalsh have said

623
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 2: that no, this does not count. And so I guess

624
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 2: that the people who bet on other winning win. And

625
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 2: I'm I mean, when I was first reporting on this,

626
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 2: I took a screenshot of the page that had all

627
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 2: of the different options, and Other was so far down

628
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: the list that it doesn't even appear in my screenshot.

629
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 2: I think it's probably a fraction of a percent. So

630
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 2: congratulations to those people, I guess. So anyway, fifty five

631
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 2: million dollars in trading volume and the vast majority of

632
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 2: that it looks like we're betting on artificial intelligence winning

633
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 2: and they just lost whatever money they put into this.

634
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 2: You cannot make this stuff up anyway. That's it from us.

635
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 4: Catch on the next one. Fine,