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Speaker 1: What time is it? Game Time? All right? Little instant
Speaker 1: reaction on the Cowboys twenty fifteen Way and God that
Speaker 1: was ugly. Dallas had eleven penalties. You know, I want
Speaker 1: to start with the New York Giants because if I
Speaker 1: said there's a team in the state of New York,
Speaker 1: Brian dabols on the offensive side, Singletary's one of the
Speaker 1: running backs, good left tackle, serviceable o line, one, great weapon,
Speaker 1: really strong defensive front. No, that's not the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1: That's the Giants. And if you gave Josh Allen to
Speaker 1: the Giants, we would talk about them in the Super
Speaker 1: Bowl bubble. The Giants have a lot of components that
Speaker 1: Super Bowl teams have outside of quarterback. They need to
Speaker 1: draft a running back. They need more juice in the backfield,
Speaker 1: which the Bills did for years until they drafted James Cook.
Speaker 1: They had Devin Singletary, who who doesn't didn't have a
Speaker 1: lot of breakaway speed, but for years, you know, once
Speaker 1: they got Stefon Diggs, it was good defensive front, capable coach,
Speaker 1: dable in the room, Singletary at back, good left tackle,
Speaker 1: serviceable ole line, excellent defensive front, one great weapon. So
Speaker 1: I don't think the Giants are hopeless. They just Brian
Speaker 1: Dabole is coaching his butt off. I mean, Daniel Jones.
Speaker 1: Tonight they dominate time of possession. With no run game
Speaker 1: and an average quarterback below average, they literally dominate time
Speaker 1: of possession. Daniel Jones goes twenty nine to forty until
Speaker 1: the very end, didn't have an interception, no touchdowns, He's
Speaker 1: not throwing interceptions anymore. And they go against Dallas and
Speaker 1: with no deep down the field thread, they're getting the
Speaker 1: ball to neighbors. He had twelve catches. But the Giants,
Speaker 1: with no run game and a mediocre quarterback dominate time
Speaker 1: of possession against Dak Prescott, pretty good quarterback, and Mike McCarthy,
Speaker 1: a super Bowl winning coach. I think Daboll is you
Speaker 1: know he would never win like even honorable mentioned Coach
Speaker 1: of the Year, but because their record won't be good.
Speaker 1: But it's not like the Giants are hopeles. They're just
Speaker 1: hopeless quarterback. And so that's where an owner interfered and
Speaker 1: a general manager and a coach are doing the best
Speaker 1: they can, but they're a little bit trapped because you
Speaker 1: know they're gonna have dead cap money if they move off.
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, he is serviceable now. He could certainly on
Speaker 1: the market. Somebody would come after him. Be serviceable. He
Speaker 1: probably wouldn't be good elsewhere because he wouldn't have neighbors
Speaker 1: and he wouldn't have Dable. But there's pieces of the
Speaker 1: Giants that Super Bowl teams have really good defensively up front,
Speaker 1: above average left tackle, great weapon Dable on the offensive
Speaker 1: side if they had the quarterback right So people look
Speaker 1: at the Giants and think they're hopeless. If it was
Speaker 1: a great quarterback class. This is a six win team,
Speaker 1: five win team, you'd get one of them. It's not
Speaker 1: there's a couple of guys. Even the Georgia quarterback now
Speaker 1: with Georgia's O line beat up, looks pretty average. Right
Speaker 1: like against Kentucky couldn't move the ball. Quinn Ewers maybe
Speaker 1: at number one can Ward? I like those two shouldar standers.
Speaker 1: Worries me a little, you know, you know, I wish
Speaker 1: he would be a little more chill. But he can play.
Speaker 1: So you probably have three or four quarterbacks in the
Speaker 1: first round. They probably have to draft one. If I
Speaker 1: was a Giants, I would draft one because I don't
Speaker 1: think they have a ton of needs. You can get
Speaker 1: running backs. I was just talking to a general manager
Speaker 1: last night. History tells you, analytics tell you the running
Speaker 1: backs You can get your running backs third, fourth, fifth,
Speaker 1: sixth rounds. Don't draft them in the first two rounds.
Speaker 1: Unless you get like a Saquan or an Adrian Peterson
Speaker 1: or a Ze you know you don't need to. So
Speaker 1: it's you. Giants will draft a quarterback. They considered it
Speaker 1: this year, and you know if the kids, you know,
Speaker 1: the offensive line now is more than capable. But Brian
Speaker 1: Dables excellent. He's doing a great job to dominate time
Speaker 1: of possession and the until the end. Again, Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: didn't have an interception. More than capable. I mean the
Speaker 1: guy threw for you know, two hundred and some seventy five,
Speaker 1: two hundred eighty yards with really no deep balls and
Speaker 1: no run game. They just got to get the quarterback right.
Speaker 1: And again, Quinn Ewers is an NFL quarterback. Shanor Sanders
Speaker 1: is back from Georgia, and cam Ward, so you're gonna
Speaker 1: have four first round quarterbacks. I think Riley Leonard late
Speaker 1: first second. He's a little wild, you know, great athlete,
Speaker 1: big size, not great in the accuracy. Can you teach
Speaker 1: him to do that? You know NFL people probably could.
Speaker 1: Josh Allen was wild. People still like Anthony Richardson and
Speaker 1: he is forty nine completion percentage. So I know you
Speaker 1: think that the Giants. I know Jmack probably thinks all
Speaker 1: is lost with the Giants. They just got to get
Speaker 1: the quarterback, right, stable, left tackle, neighbors, good defensive front.
Speaker 1: They got pieces. They got pieces the Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: it was eleven penalties. Jesus, if you took Ceedee Lamb
Speaker 1: out of this team, there is nothing there. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's just and their fullback is like a weapon, you know.
Speaker 1: I like their field goal kicker and missed one at
Speaker 1: the end, damn it. But you know, neither team really
Speaker 1: had a run game tonight. I just think, you know, again,
Speaker 1: let's talk about this. Oh, if the New York Giants
Speaker 1: hit on a quarterback next year, Let's say the Patriots
Speaker 1: aren't going to draft the quarterback because they have Drake May.
Speaker 1: Carolina probably would, right Tennessee, if they're bad, probably would.
Speaker 1: Although I think they figure out a way to win
Speaker 1: four or five six games. But a lot of the
Speaker 1: bad teams have their quarterbacks, right, they're gonna give them
Speaker 1: a shot. So the Giants win five games, you know
Speaker 1: they're not going to be Dallas five or six wins.
Speaker 1: They'll probably have the fifth, sixth pick, and a lot
Speaker 1: of the bad teams just got their quarterback, so they're
Speaker 1: gonna get one of these quarterbacks. I like their future.
Speaker 1: I like Dable more than Mike McCarthy. I like the
Speaker 1: Giants defensive line more than Dallas. I like their left
Speaker 1: tackle more than Dallas. They both have good weapons. Owner,
Speaker 1: I'll take the Giants. I guess the Giants just need
Speaker 1: a quarterback and pick up a running back in the
Speaker 1: fourth or fifth round. They've got a lot of components.
Speaker 1: Dallas is kind of trapped. They're paying CD of fortune.
Speaker 1: They'll pay Micah, who I like. I don't love a fortune.
Speaker 1: They're paying dack of fortune. Owner vain more about, you know,
Speaker 1: getting attention than and being remarkably interesting and talked about
Speaker 1: more than I think really winning titles. Despite what he says,
Speaker 1: their offensive line is just okay, no juice in the backfield,
Speaker 1: average it tight end, very ced Lamb and he's great,
Speaker 1: but very ced Lamb centric. I don't see this great future.
Speaker 1: And they're stuck with Dak, who's good B Plus, it's
Speaker 1: like having Kirk Cousins in his prime. It's good. Be plush.
Speaker 1: We wouldn't get to the playoffs. But if the Giants
Speaker 1: next year, let's say they have the fourth pick in
Speaker 1: the draft, and you know, Travis Hunter from Colorado goes
Speaker 1: number one, and let's say somebody likes cam Ward he
Speaker 1: goes to and the Giants move up a spot, give
Speaker 1: up some draft picks, and they get quinn Ewrs and
Speaker 1: he's good. And Brian Dable is really good with quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: He's made Daniel Jones now that he has one weapon
Speaker 1: and a more serviceable old line capable, not special capable.
Speaker 1: So it's like, who would have the better future if
Speaker 1: you got quinn Ewers or back and you established pretty quickly.
Speaker 1: Guy can play Little Bumpy for sure, guy can play
Speaker 1: whose future? Do you like? Dabors Dable weapons? You can
Speaker 1: get a running back every year, just draft them. They're
Speaker 1: out there. I don't know's I know Dallas dominates this series,
Speaker 1: and I know everybody thinks, you know, oh Dallas, Dax.
Speaker 1: You know, the star in the hel butt is very influential.
Speaker 1: But you know you're stuck with McCarthy at least for
Speaker 1: the rest of this year. Eleven penalties, so he's always
Speaker 1: been penalty plagued. I mean tonight, Mike has heard DeMarcus
Speaker 1: Lawrence banged up. I don't know, maybe I'm being just
Speaker 1: overly negative. Laker fans feel the same way, but this
Speaker 1: I said this today on FS one. You know, family
Speaker 1: owned and operated just felt better twenty years ago. I
Speaker 1: think now as you're can have a deli like that,
Speaker 1: But in tech I don't want a family owned and
Speaker 1: operated tech giant.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: Maybe that's what Larry Elison has with Oracle, maybe that's it.
Speaker 1: But by and large, I like the staying kronkey of
Speaker 1: the world. I like, you know, the Allen family in Seattle,
Speaker 1: York family in San Francisco. I big money, something beyond
Speaker 1: just the team. I don't think Dallas's future is bright.
Speaker 1: I really don't. And it's not a shot at Dak.
Speaker 1: I mean, God, if you put Daniel Jones on the
Speaker 1: Cowboys and Dak on the Giants, Giant or playoff team,
Speaker 1: absolutely Cowboys are bad, bad. I mean, you wouldn't even
Speaker 1: have to get a great one quarterback With Dable and
Speaker 1: the Giants defensive front neighbors and they're left tackle, you
Speaker 1: wouldn't need a great quarterback. You'd need Dak. He'd be
Speaker 1: a playoff team every year. Hell Eli Manning wasn't a
Speaker 1: great regular season quarterback, but he was great, always arrived, Ohway,
Speaker 1: was healthy, always playing two minute drill, and good in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Think about this, dak Is twenty four and
Speaker 1: four against Washington and the New York Giants. That's not
Speaker 1: going to continue. Davile's getting his quarterback next year. Washington
Speaker 1: has there. It was like Big Ben for years eight
Speaker 1: on Cincinnati and Cleveland. Then Burrow showed up, Baker showed
Speaker 1: up and didn't feel the same. And so when you
Speaker 1: get that eight nine year window with a big franchise
Speaker 1: a Dallas or at Pittsburgh and you have the lesser
Speaker 1: halves or the have nots in your division and you're
Speaker 1: just dominating you for late nine years, you got to
Speaker 1: get multiple playoff wins. You got to show up in
Speaker 1: the conference championship. You got to show up in a
Speaker 1: super Bowl. Pittsburgh did it. You know, Pittsburgh, Tomlin, they
Speaker 1: get to a couple of Super Bowls. Okay, they be
Speaker 1: in Arizona, they beat the Seattle, they got theirs. It
Speaker 1: didn't end like you'd like in Pittsburgh, but they got theirs.
Speaker 1: When Cincinnati and Cleveland were you know, not great, didn't
Speaker 1: have star quarterbacks. Well, Washington and New York since Eli
Speaker 1: left have been a mess. What's Dallas haveing a show
Speaker 1: for it? Twenty four to four? It's just two and
Speaker 1: Oho every year not in the show for it. They
Speaker 1: beat the New York Giants last year by seventy two
Speaker 1: combined points. The Cowboys did it tonight. They needed a
Speaker 1: guy who can kick long field goals, so I and
Speaker 1: and Dables getting his guy in this draft. They're going
Speaker 1: to have a top six to seventh pick, and there's
Speaker 1: four quarterbacks and Travis Hunter's going to be one of
Speaker 1: the top guys taken. Will Johnson that corner for Michigan's
Speaker 1: going to be one of the top guys taken. So
Speaker 1: there's a tackle of Texas probably going to be one
Speaker 1: of those guys taken. There's a defensive tackle for Kentucky's
Speaker 1: probably going to be one of those guys taken. Giants
Speaker 1: are getting a quarterback, maybe the second choice for Dable.
Speaker 1: But they're getting somebody. So is that too negative? I
Speaker 1: don't know. I you know, Dak has over forty percent
Speaker 1: of his wins on the Giants and Washington. But now
Speaker 1: that Jadeen Daniels is cooking, and he looks like he
Speaker 1: can't really play now that Jade Daniels is cooking, and
Speaker 1: the Eagles role is gonna have players With Harry Roseman,
Speaker 1: I think, I think the days of getting fat on
Speaker 1: Washington and the Giants are over, and the Giants are
Speaker 1: gonna get into our quarterback next year. And Dable's really
Speaker 1: good with quarterbacks. This was not Davie's quarterback. He wouldn't
Speaker 1: have drafted him. He's not his guy. They didn't want
Speaker 1: to give him the extension. Don't don't blame Dabel for this.
Speaker 1: That's that's upstairs, that's Mara. He'll get the quarterback he
Speaker 1: wants next year. Dabel and those quarterbacks, he'll have the influence,
Speaker 1: he'll have the call with Joe Shane the GM they'll
Speaker 1: get somebody. Cam Ward can play in the NFL. Quin
Speaker 1: yours can play. Schador can play a little bit too
Speaker 1: much personality for me, but he can play and back
Speaker 1: at Georgia. So that's that's four. That's four guys, and
Speaker 1: somebody will emerge over the next six to seven weeks.
Speaker 1: And I know it. It's easy to beat up on
Speaker 1: teams like the New York Giants right now. But I
Speaker 1: see a lot of good pieces with Dallas. I see
Speaker 1: a lot of big contracts and one great player in
Speaker 1: CD lab. That's all I see. Blazing five tomorrow on
Speaker 1: FS one. Let's listen to Chad Millman, Sharper Square, td
Speaker 1: Tuddy taking it to the house in for six, whatever
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Speaker 1: All Right Time for an utter edition of Sharper Square
Speaker 1: Chadmilman CCO Action Network. All of our odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: I don't have referendums or declarations very often, but officially
Speaker 1: I will never bet Trevor Lawrence again for the rest
Speaker 1: of my adult life, and I'm going to stick with
Speaker 1: that one.
Speaker 2: The number of times I have made those kinds of
Speaker 2: declarations and then the very next week gone on to
Speaker 2: bet the exact team or player I said I would
Speaker 2: never bet again, including by the way, last week when
Speaker 2: I bet the Carolina Panthers because Andy Dollin was the
Speaker 2: quarterback after I had sworn off the Carolina Panthers. So
Speaker 2: be careful what you say, because you might have to
Speaker 2: walk it back.
Speaker 1: All right, this is an interesting week, so I usually
Speaker 1: feel first couple of weeks I'm kind of feeling it out.
Speaker 1: I never used to feel that way, but because nobody
Speaker 1: plays anybody in preseason, fewer padded practices, I kind of
Speaker 1: feel like the Jets in Week one offensively or awful.
Speaker 1: Then all of a sudden you watch them and you're like, wow,
Speaker 1: they lead the NFL in third down percentage. Like stuff
Speaker 1: happens fast because either Sean McVay, fewer padded practices, I'm
Speaker 1: not going to play any starters, but I do feel
Speaker 1: like I have. I kind of feel like I have.
Speaker 1: I got my feet beneath me on the league. But
Speaker 1: this is an instructive moment, and I'll tell you I
Speaker 1: want to start with this because I part of why
Speaker 1: I like doing Sharper Square. I liked teaching myself stuff
Speaker 1: and the audience. So I really liked the Jets early
Speaker 1: in the week at minus six and a half. I
Speaker 1: think it's a bad spot for a rookie quarterback traveling
Speaker 1: going back, I get a veteran extra rest. This is
Speaker 1: a bad spot for bow Nicks. I thought Tampa I
Speaker 1: picked them in that week it was a good spot.
Speaker 1: And with rookie quarterbacks it's a lot of where you
Speaker 1: land and how the schedule looks. Same with rookie coaches.
Speaker 1: New England on a Thursday night, bad spot off an
Speaker 1: overtime game. So I liked the Jets a lot. And
Speaker 1: now it's seven and a half and I don't bet teams.
Speaker 1: I bet numbers in this league. So now I like
Speaker 1: Denver and just because of a point swing. So just
Speaker 1: as a point of instruction, how do the wise guys
Speaker 1: view that game?
Speaker 2: Well, they're going to bet Denver at seven and a half,
Speaker 2: and that's sort of what they've been waiting for. What
Speaker 2: you're doing, naturally, because you've been watching football and thinking
Speaker 2: about this for a long time, is looking at the
Speaker 2: number seven. It's a key number, right, and the key
Speaker 2: numbers mean that's the number that's the delta of between
Speaker 2: the two scores that a lot of games land on
Speaker 2: in the NFL seven four three two. With the extra
Speaker 2: point changes the past couple of years, those are now
Speaker 2: the key numbers, and those are the ones that wise
Speaker 2: guys want to get on the right side of. So
Speaker 2: you liked New York at six and a half because
Speaker 2: it was on the right side of that key number
Speaker 2: of seven. You like Denver on the seven and a
Speaker 2: half because now you're on the right side of seven
Speaker 2: for Denver. So that is the delta, by the and
Speaker 2: that is the very very thin line between success and failure.
Speaker 2: We're talking about half a point in your logic, but
Speaker 2: that is the difference between winning and losing in so
Speaker 2: many of these games.
Speaker 1: So another point. I'm going to reflect on this because
Speaker 1: this week I don't have as strong as a conviction
Speaker 1: on games. But I'm fascinated by why a number is
Speaker 1: so about. Once a week there is a number I
Speaker 1: don't understand. Last week it was Seattle in Miami. I
Speaker 1: had a winning week. I didn't get the number. Skyler
Speaker 1: Thompson against Mike McDonald's defense. That felt like a blowout
Speaker 1: to me. It's a hard place to play for TUA.
Speaker 1: Miami doesn't play well West or North usually they're just
Speaker 1: a different team. So the Steelers minus one and a
Speaker 1: half going to be four to zero, best defense arguably
Speaker 1: in the league against a quarterback who is in a
Speaker 1: t bow level forty nine percent completion percentage. I talked
Speaker 1: to one executive this week. He said his tapes as
Speaker 1: bad as a thrower as anybody he remembers. So I
Speaker 1: look at it and I think that number doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1: It should be Steelers minus two to two and a
Speaker 1: half to three. I would take Pittsburgh, but the market's
Speaker 1: confusing me. Explain the line.
Speaker 2: The market is confusing you because the Steelers are undefeated.
Speaker 2: They opened as two point favorites, and the line has
Speaker 2: moved in the direction of the Indianapolis Colts. And what's more,
Speaker 2: what you can see in a lot of places, and
Speaker 2: most operators offer those DraftKings does as well. You can
Speaker 2: usually see the betting tickets and the betting money. Tickets
Speaker 2: means that the squares are coming in on a side.
Speaker 2: Money means that the professionals are coming in on a side.
Speaker 2: The delta on this game is squares on the Steelers,
Speaker 2: money on the professionals. The line usually moves, I mean
Speaker 2: money on the Colts. Professionals on the Colts, the line
Speaker 2: usually moves in the direction of the money. That tells
Speaker 2: you that what the professionals are doing. The reason that's
Speaker 2: happening in this game is because a Mike Tomlin is
Speaker 2: historically great as a road underdog and historically bad as
Speaker 2: a road favorite. They are also not believing in Justin
Speaker 2: Fields right now. They love the Steelers defense. They know
Speaker 2: if the Steelers get up that TJ. Watt is going
Speaker 2: to slam the door closed, and that's when he's amazing.
Speaker 2: But it's not like they're dominating teams. And if you
Speaker 2: even look at that Chargers game, it's ten to ten
Speaker 2: with a one legged Justin Herbert and it doesn't become
Speaker 2: a Steelers win until Justin Herbert is out of the game.
Speaker 2: Now they're going on the road in a game that
Speaker 2: should probably be pick based on the talent levels, and
Speaker 2: the strength of the Colts is not going to be
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson throwing or trying to evade TJ. Watt. It's
Speaker 2: going to be what this offensive line, which is one
Speaker 2: of the top rated run blocking and top rated pass
Speaker 2: blocking lines in the league, can do to get Jonathan
Speaker 2: Taylor free in the open field. So that's why the
Speaker 2: Wise guys like this matchup. They're getting a home underdog
Speaker 2: and an overvalued favorite.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's get into my picks this line. Initially I
Speaker 1: felt like Chicago was to play. It's now up to
Speaker 1: plus three. It's a coach quarterback league. It wasn't. The
Speaker 1: Rams won this game basically on special teams, but now
Speaker 1: they have both their tackles back. The interior offensive line
Speaker 1: has now played together for three games, so have these receivers.
Speaker 1: So the Niners were missing elements. But I don't trust
Speaker 1: eber Flus or Shane Waldron. I'm not giving up a
Speaker 1: field goal to just a winning culture to one that's
Speaker 1: trying to find their way. Bears are getting better. But
Speaker 1: I'll play the number Rams plus three Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Yeah, at three, it's sort of in the middle. We
Speaker 2: just talked about key numbers. If this game gets up
Speaker 2: to three and a half, the Wise guys will play
Speaker 2: the Rams. But it opened at one and the Wise
Speaker 2: guys played the one. The one and a half, the two,
Speaker 2: the two and a half, and now it's at three.
Speaker 2: And their logic here is very much by low Sell high. Right,
Speaker 2: you just talked about last week. With four minutes and
Speaker 2: fifty seven seconds left in that game against the Niners,
Speaker 2: the Rams had a five percent chance to win that game.
Speaker 2: They needed every single thing to go right in that game,
Speaker 2: and it did. The Niners could not advance the ball
Speaker 2: deeper into the Rams side of the field. They missed
Speaker 2: a fifty five yard field goal. The Rams scored in
Speaker 2: three straight plays. Play the next series, the forty nine
Speaker 2: Ers can't advance the ball, they punt, The Rams get
Speaker 2: a great punt return, They get three penalties on one play,
Speaker 2: including a twenty eight yard pass interference. They win the game.
Speaker 2: The Bearers, meanwhile, couldn't have played worse. Caleb Williams was
Speaker 2: confusing Colts defenders for Bears receivers. They were truly terrible.
Speaker 2: They had no running game right twenty five seconds left
Speaker 2: in the third quarter, they're still down seven to three.
Speaker 2: When the Colts score a touchdown to go fourteen to three.
Speaker 2: Five minutes left in that game, they're still down fourteen
Speaker 2: to nine. They had a chance to keep winning that game.
Speaker 2: Their pass rush is elite. Their defense is getting better
Speaker 2: and better. You have to assume in this game that
Speaker 2: the Bears are not as bad as they were, which
Speaker 2: is what the wise guys think, and the Rams cannot
Speaker 2: replicate that kind of luck no matter who's back on
Speaker 2: the field. All that said, your statement about Sean McVay
Speaker 2: and Matthew Stafford versus ebra Flus and Caleb Williams is
Speaker 2: the one reason I've talked about this game all week.
Speaker 2: It is the one reason why I have heard wise
Speaker 2: guys saying I'm kind of hesitating. Those who are in
Speaker 2: are in, but those who are hesitating orre hesitating because
Speaker 2: of that exactly way, all.
Speaker 1: Right, I'm going to take the Packers minus two and
Speaker 1: a half at home against the Vikings. The Vikings are
Speaker 1: playing really well, but they've always been a little better
Speaker 1: at home than on the road. Also, Green Bay is
Speaker 1: winning without Jordan Love. The team is gaining confidence. Jordan
Speaker 1: Love is a massive step up. I also think Green
Speaker 1: Bay this year, for the first time in recent memory,
Speaker 1: is kind of a ball hawking defense that's creating turnovers.
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold historically will give you opportunities. So at minus
Speaker 1: two and a half, Green Bay at home. I don't
Speaker 1: think people quite understand the coaching job. Winning with Malik
Speaker 1: Willis and looking good with Malik Willis, these aren't fluke Wins.
Speaker 1: I would swallow the two and a half take Green
Speaker 1: Bay sharper square.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a really tricky one because there is
Speaker 2: just universal split on this one. Wow, it went to two,
Speaker 2: it was at two, it got at the two and
Speaker 2: a half, it got up the three. The wise guys
Speaker 2: took the three. Bet it down to two and a half.
Speaker 2: You'll see it bouncing around back and forth. Everybody has
Speaker 2: an opinion on this game, and they are very strongly
Speaker 2: on Minnesota, very strongly on Green Bay. I can't give
Speaker 2: you a definitive answer. You could be right. Whyse guys
Speaker 2: could be right? What's interesting in this game? I agree
Speaker 2: with you. Matt Lafleur has been a genius in this scenario,
Speaker 2: and you have to credit what he has done with
Speaker 2: Malik Willis. You also have to credit Kevin O'Connell what
Speaker 2: he has done with Sam Darnold to make him look
Speaker 2: like an MVP worthy quarterback to get his team undefeated.
Speaker 2: You have to credit Brian Flores, whose team is number
Speaker 2: one defensively in Dboa and make Brock Perdy and CJ.
Speaker 2: Shroud look mediocre to bad in two upsets for this
Speaker 2: team against quarterbacks who are really good against the Blitz.
Speaker 2: Then there's one stat that keeps sticking in my craw
Speaker 2: teams that are short home favorites in divisional games against
Speaker 2: the spread since twenty sixteen. So I am completely torn
Speaker 2: on this game. I lean Minnesota. I'm hoping it gets
Speaker 2: back to three.
Speaker 1: I like Seattle plus three and a half at the Lions.
Speaker 1: Lions are missing their top center, Byron Murphy, the really,
Speaker 1: really good defensive tackle number one pick for the Seahawks,
Speaker 1: has elevated a defensive front. I think one of the
Speaker 1: things about Seattle, I think they're one of the best
Speaker 1: coach teams in the league right now. On the defensive side,
Speaker 1: I don't quite feel like they finally figured out their
Speaker 1: offense last week with Detroit. Thirty five carries Montgomery and Gibbs,
Speaker 1: but you're not going to run like that on Seattle.
Speaker 1: Seattle has been playmakers. Detroit's ohwas susceptible if you can
Speaker 1: block Hudgson. Detroit's ohways susceptible. The big plays. Three and
Speaker 1: a half is too big of a number. Gino complete
Speaker 1: seventy four percent of his throws. This is a highly
Speaker 1: competent offense. Efficient, competent, and occasionally explosive. I don't trust
Speaker 1: the Lions here, Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Yeah, whyse guys still like the Seahawks here. If you
Speaker 2: can get the hook, that's what they're planning. The line
Speaker 2: has moved in their direction, even though it's Detroit at
Speaker 2: home inside when they are historically great against the spread.
Speaker 2: It went from four and a half down to four.
Speaker 2: Now it's at three and a half. All the things
Speaker 2: you said, there is some sort of hesitation because who
Speaker 2: of the Seahawks really beaten? Right, Like, they beat up
Speaker 2: Skyler Thompson and Tim Boyle, they beat up Jacoby Brissett,
Speaker 2: and by the way, the pass played tough in that game,
Speaker 2: and if you look at the spread, it was a push.
Speaker 2: They beat up bo Nicks in his first game, and
Speaker 2: by the way, the Broncos came back at the end
Speaker 2: of that game, and it was a push. So I'm
Speaker 2: not fully bought in on the Seahawks. They have been
Speaker 2: one of those teams professional betters have liked since before
Speaker 2: the season began. The number play is the Seahawks. But
Speaker 2: it's not like a slam dump for me.
Speaker 1: There are games sometimes I just like to watch Bills
Speaker 1: getting two and a half the Ravens Bills in a
Speaker 1: short week. I said this, the Ravens are a toe
Speaker 1: away from just having one really bad loss and crushing
Speaker 1: Dallas and beating the Chiefs. I like Baltimore. They had
Speaker 1: to replace coordinator and some offensive linemen. I think that stuff,
Speaker 1: especially on the O line, takes time. I think the
Speaker 1: Ravens cover here sharper.
Speaker 2: Square totally sharp wise. Guys are on the Ravens. That's
Speaker 2: the play. It's scary, right, you're going to be betting
Speaker 2: against Josh Allen, who is wicked right now and is
Speaker 2: now the odds on favorite to win the MVP after
Speaker 2: what he did to the Jags on Monday Night. I mean,
Speaker 2: he was fierce right, his passes were pinpoint. He was
Speaker 2: running through the of that Jaguars line. But I do
Speaker 2: think that the value is on Lamar Jackson, who's twenty
Speaker 2: one and seven, as a short favorite or an underdog.
Speaker 2: It's a really good spot for the Ravens. Their defensive
Speaker 2: backline against the rush, they're getting a little bit better.
Speaker 2: I think the big fear is like, what are they
Speaker 2: going to do when Josh Allen is scrambling and improvising.
Speaker 2: They haven't proven to be able to really defend against that.
Speaker 2: Right now, we saw the Cowboys come back. But Ravens
Speaker 2: are definitely the right side.
Speaker 1: Okay, we do this every week. I have a game.
Speaker 1: I just want your opinion. So the Commander's plus three
Speaker 1: and a half at Arizona, Commander's probably the side. But
Speaker 1: I will say this, I don't think and I've had
Speaker 1: this sourced, I don't think Kyler Murray watches a ton
Speaker 1: of film. I think he's just sort of an instinctive
Speaker 1: player that's really good. I think he can be beaten
Speaker 1: by very good defensive coordinators or secondaries that manipulate him.
Speaker 1: But against bad secondaries that you can coach up to
Speaker 1: certain levels, he can embarrass them. Commanders are not good
Speaker 1: in the back end. They're really really bad on the
Speaker 1: back end. Back end, they're coming off a short week.
Speaker 1: Arizona is one of the It's a little tougher to
Speaker 1: play there than people give it credit for. Niners and
Speaker 1: Rams will tell you Seahawks, it can be a tough
Speaker 1: place to play. Kyler plays very well at home. I
Speaker 1: know it's telling me to take the Commanders short week.
Speaker 1: Rookie quarterback tend to be high and low in spots.
Speaker 1: I think i'd like Arizona, But I know it's not
Speaker 1: the play. What are they telling you?
Speaker 2: It actually is the play. Your instincts are right. It's
Speaker 2: totally the sharp play. You said something really smart off
Speaker 2: the top, which was because of the preseason and people
Speaker 2: not playing, players not playing as often as they have
Speaker 2: what used to be sort of the week three get
Speaker 2: right spot for a lot of professional betters. Like that's
Speaker 2: when you've got two games to see what teams are like.
Speaker 2: You've got a pretty good read on what their system
Speaker 2: is and their style. More importantly, you've got to read
Speaker 2: on the psychological makeup of betters, so you know what
Speaker 2: the bookmakers are trying to lure the betters into doing.
Speaker 2: That's happening now after Week three and into week four,
Speaker 2: and you have some key by low sell high spots.
Speaker 2: This week we talked about the Rams and the Bears,
Speaker 2: we're also talking about the Cardinals and the Commanders. This
Speaker 2: is exactly This line was five and a half before
Speaker 2: the Commander's game against the Bengals, twelve hours later it
Speaker 2: was three and a half. That is because of what
Speaker 2: they did in prime time. You of course want to
Speaker 2: fade a rookie quarterback who goes bananas in prime time
Speaker 2: and then is on a short week going on the
Speaker 2: road against a team that actually, while their defense is no,
Speaker 2: not very good, has been playing a lot better than
Speaker 2: people are giving them credit for. They are a tough
Speaker 2: out and this is a really good chance for them
Speaker 2: to get a win and to put themselves, you know,
Speaker 2: to have some momentum behind what they're doing as a
Speaker 2: relatively short home favorite. So yeah, the right side here
Speaker 2: is Arizona.
Speaker 1: Okay, so I instincts for right Okay. Now there's a game,
Speaker 1: often an ugly one that I have missed completely that
Speaker 1: you think is a strong play. It's usually involving Carolina
Speaker 1: or some dreg hole that I have to watch some
Speaker 1: just egregiously gross. Oh it's just awful, it's terrible.
Speaker 2: It's so it's I don't even like to talk about them,
Speaker 2: Like what asking you to do these things? I could
Speaker 2: say to you, Yes, you want to play the Jags
Speaker 2: against the Houston Texans.
Speaker 1: Okay, so tell the audience the line. It's Houston favored
Speaker 1: by six and a half, right instead is.
Speaker 2: Six and a half. The reason I'm not going to
Speaker 2: tell you is because I do think this line could
Speaker 2: get to seven. The Jags were so bad on Monday Night,
Speaker 2: And because the Texans are becoming such a public team,
Speaker 2: and again education for people. Public teams are the ones
Speaker 2: that are so popular they get an outsized number of bets,
Speaker 2: and bookmakers know they can make them bigger favorites because
Speaker 2: people are going to bet them no matter what right
Speaker 2: You're talking about teams today, it's the Texans, It's always
Speaker 2: the Cowboys, it's always the Steelers. It's going to be
Speaker 2: the Eagles, it's going to be the Chiefs right now.
Speaker 2: It's going to be the Bills too. So you know,
Speaker 2: the number on the Texans is going to be a
Speaker 2: little bit higher. I think it might get to seven
Speaker 2: by Sunday. If it gets there, you're going to see
Speaker 2: a lot of wise guys coming in. The truth is, Colin,
Speaker 2: you hit the games that I'm most excited about. The
Speaker 2: game that I'm most excited about is the Colts and
Speaker 2: the Steelers that just to me feels like the right
Speaker 2: play on the right team, the culture.
Speaker 1: At home, and they're getting a point and a half.
Speaker 2: Yes, I want to play the home underdog in that spot.
Speaker 2: I actually I don't want to play the Panthers this
Speaker 2: week at all. Like to me, it feels a little trappy.
Speaker 2: People do want to play the Panthers, they want to
Speaker 2: play Andy Dalton, they want to fade the Bengals. That
Speaker 2: one feels a little bit scary to me. I'm looking
Speaker 2: at my notes right now, but like we basically hit
Speaker 2: them all like Arizona Chicago. The one I will say,
Speaker 2: and it's terrible. Los Angeles Chargers. Okay, seven people line,
Speaker 2: seven and a half point underdogs at home against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: So the Chargers getting with a limpy Justin Herbert and
Speaker 1: no offensive tackles seven and a half against case.
Speaker 2: Maybe wimpy Justin Herbert or maybe Taylor Heineke. Like we
Speaker 2: don't even know, right, it could, We don't know what
Speaker 2: it's going to be. But matchup wise, what the Chargers
Speaker 2: really want to do is run the ball. We've seen
Speaker 2: this with Jim Harball, Like this is his right Jim Harball.
Speaker 2: The reason he can come in and turn teams around
Speaker 2: so quickly is because he speaks to the primal nature
Speaker 2: of all football players, which is we're going to go
Speaker 2: beat the crap out of the opponent. And that is
Speaker 2: what he gets these guys to be good at, really
Speaker 2: really quickly, and he's got a preternatural gift for identifying
Speaker 2: offensive line talent. So obviously there's challenges here because Joe
Speaker 2: All is out, Rashaun Slater is out. But I do
Speaker 2: think this team is going to be able to run
Speaker 2: the ball against the Chiefs defense that just hasn't been
Speaker 2: good against the run. And look, we saw that against
Speaker 2: the Falcons right when the Falcons had all of their
Speaker 2: alignment on the field, they were going to win that
Speaker 2: game going away by running Bjon Robinson and then they
Speaker 2: had to completely change their game plan. So I do
Speaker 2: think the Chiefs are going to the Chargers going to
Speaker 2: lean into the Chiefs running game, treats running defense and
Speaker 2: try to keep this game the clock running and keep
Speaker 2: it low scoring. And you do get an advantage when
Speaker 2: you were playing a very large division underdog. And Patrick
Speaker 2: Mahons because he's always a big favorite, Yeah, has a
Speaker 2: hard time covering the spread when he's a big favorite.
Speaker 1: Chad Millman, all of our lines, draft kings, fingers crossed,
Speaker 1: good to see anybody.
Speaker 2: Good to see you two. Always fingers crossed.
Speaker 1: Always the volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've
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