WEBVTT - WSOP Kickoff, Crypto ETFs, and Airfare Refunds 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:26.484 Pushkin. Hey everyone, welcome back to Risky Business, a show 0:00:26.524 --> 0:00:29.964 about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova and. 0:00:29.924 --> 0:00:32.924 I'm Nate Silver. Today we have a lot to get into. 0:00:33.044 --> 0:00:36.244 We are literally hours away and across the street from 0:00:36.244 --> 0:00:37.044 the World Chairs of Poker. 0:00:37.084 --> 0:00:37.764 We'll talk about that. 0:00:38.084 --> 0:00:42.524 We'll also be talking about some huge news in the cryptosphere. 0:00:42.604 --> 0:00:46.324 The approval of the eth ETFs and crypto is something 0:00:46.364 --> 0:00:49.244 that is very firmly in the realm of Risky Business, 0:00:49.244 --> 0:00:51.044 even though we haven't talked about it yet on the show. 0:00:51.324 --> 0:00:54.364 And finally, inspired by an unexpected detour, I took to Buffalo, 0:00:54.484 --> 0:00:56.204 New York on the way into Las Vegas. We'll talk 0:00:56.204 --> 0:00:59.444 about new rules by the Department of Presportation governing compensation 0:00:59.484 --> 0:01:01.884 ref your flight is late and how that might affect 0:01:01.884 --> 0:01:04.764 the risk taking behavior of both passengers and airlines. 0:01:05.164 --> 0:01:07.084 Yes, I'm looking forward to that one night, because my 0:01:07.164 --> 0:01:08.964 flight was also very very late. 0:01:09.484 --> 0:01:10.924 You did not end up in Buffalo. 0:01:11.404 --> 0:01:12.964 I did not end up in Buffalo. 0:01:13.084 --> 0:01:15.764 Name and Buffalo, Maria. 0:01:15.324 --> 0:01:16.364 Okay, Okay, Buffalo. 0:01:16.804 --> 0:01:19.844 You win this one, and I look forward to getting 0:01:19.884 --> 0:01:27.564 into it. At the end of the show. Let's begin, though, 0:01:27.604 --> 0:01:30.324 with the fact that we both got here So we 0:01:30.444 --> 0:01:34.684 are both in fabulous Las Vegas for the opening of 0:01:34.724 --> 0:01:37.164 the World Series of Poker, and we are taping this 0:01:37.324 --> 0:01:42.004 on Tuesday, May twenty eighth, which is literally the opening 0:01:42.124 --> 0:01:44.364 day of the World Series, and you and I will 0:01:44.404 --> 0:01:47.844 both be playing the first opening event, which is a 0:01:47.924 --> 0:01:52.844 five thousand dollars players Championship, which is exciting and I mean, 0:01:52.884 --> 0:01:53.964 I'm excited. Are you excited? 0:01:54.044 --> 0:01:56.844 Night, Yeah, I've never actually been here for the exact 0:01:56.884 --> 0:01:59.804 start of the World Series before. It's it's a lot 0:01:59.844 --> 0:02:01.404 better than the end, right we were there till the 0:02:01.444 --> 0:02:04.084 bitter end last year. The end is kind of depressing. 0:02:04.124 --> 0:02:08.124 They're like literally tearing the building down. The beginning, everyone's 0:02:08.124 --> 0:02:10.524 bank rolls are full, everybody he's in a good mood. 0:02:11.404 --> 0:02:13.204 This is a new event this year to start out 0:02:13.204 --> 0:02:16.444 with a five K. Usually it's something smaller. I'll be 0:02:16.524 --> 0:02:19.364 curious to see what type of field it draws. Usually 0:02:19.444 --> 0:02:23.044 five K is like high enough that the amateur players 0:02:23.084 --> 0:02:26.604 are a little bit just waited by it. But it's 0:02:26.644 --> 0:02:29.724 the first time bank rolls, it's the first event. I 0:02:29.724 --> 0:02:32.084 think some of the pros from Europe are taking their 0:02:32.084 --> 0:02:34.244 time and getting here, so it might be a pretty 0:02:34.244 --> 0:02:34.644 good field. 0:02:34.644 --> 0:02:35.124 We will see. 0:02:35.404 --> 0:02:39.284 Yeah, So for anyone who wants to join us this summer, 0:02:39.564 --> 0:02:42.604 or anyone who is just thinking about doing the World 0:02:42.644 --> 0:02:44.844 Series or something that is kind of this sort of 0:02:45.044 --> 0:02:49.084 marathon experience where you have to keep making good, risky 0:02:49.124 --> 0:02:51.644 decisions over and over and over. It doesn't even have 0:02:51.684 --> 0:02:54.324 to be poker. Nate and I have both come up 0:02:54.364 --> 0:02:59.084 with our top three tips for dealing with a situation 0:02:59.204 --> 0:03:00.764 like this, and we're going to be talking about it 0:03:00.764 --> 0:03:03.244 in the context of the World Series, but I do 0:03:03.324 --> 0:03:05.204 want to always keep in mind that it can be 0:03:05.244 --> 0:03:10.244 abstracted to other decision making situations. And we don't know 0:03:10.324 --> 0:03:12.964 each other's top tips. So I'm going to start, and 0:03:13.044 --> 0:03:14.964 you know, we're going to go one at a time 0:03:15.124 --> 0:03:18.084 and throw out one tip and these are actually in 0:03:18.124 --> 0:03:22.324 our order of importance, and react and see whether we're 0:03:22.364 --> 0:03:24.324 thinking about this in the same way or in very 0:03:24.324 --> 0:03:27.484 different ways. It would be very fun either way. And 0:03:27.524 --> 0:03:29.204 like I said, we have no idea what the other 0:03:29.284 --> 0:03:31.884 person is going to say, although I have more idea 0:03:31.964 --> 0:03:34.564 than Nate, because Nate did have a list of his 0:03:34.604 --> 0:03:38.004 top twenty one tips for the World Series on his newsletter, 0:03:38.124 --> 0:03:40.684 so there's that. But he's seen nothing from me, But 0:03:40.724 --> 0:03:42.724 actually I wrote a book about it, so maybe he 0:03:42.764 --> 0:03:46.484 has some idea too. All Right, my top tip would 0:03:46.524 --> 0:03:50.524 be number one, take care of yourself. People are here 0:03:50.724 --> 0:03:54.044 to play poker and they get super excited. I'm really excited, 0:03:54.364 --> 0:03:58.484 and they forget the basics like get exercise, get sleep, 0:03:58.724 --> 0:04:02.204 and eat good food and buy good food. I don't 0:04:02.244 --> 0:04:05.124 mean like food that you're going to be like, oh yeah, 0:04:05.124 --> 0:04:08.124 this is delicious. I mean actually nourishing food that's good 0:04:08.164 --> 0:04:11.044 for your brain, good for you decision making, and there's 0:04:11.084 --> 0:04:13.604 a lot of science on this. All of these things 0:04:13.764 --> 0:04:16.884 matter when you're trying to make good decisions. If you 0:04:16.924 --> 0:04:20.284 haven't slept well, your decision making capacity is going to 0:04:20.324 --> 0:04:23.204 go downhill. If you've been inside all day, if you 0:04:23.204 --> 0:04:25.444 haven't been moving, if you haven't exercised, if you haven't 0:04:25.484 --> 0:04:28.924 gotten that blood flow going, your decision making capacity is 0:04:29.004 --> 0:04:32.884 going to go downhill. If you're eating crap, your decision 0:04:32.924 --> 0:04:36.644 making capacity once again is going to go downhill. There's 0:04:36.684 --> 0:04:39.284 even a funny study, it's one of my kind of 0:04:39.324 --> 0:04:42.884 pet favorite psych studies because it's so ridiculous, that shows 0:04:42.884 --> 0:04:45.884 that your risk taking propensities become less than optimal when 0:04:45.884 --> 0:04:47.844 you have to go to the bathroom if you have 0:04:47.884 --> 0:04:52.084 to pee, you actually start evaluating risks incorrectly. Mind and 0:04:52.164 --> 0:04:57.124 body are intimately connected. Decision making ability is intimately related 0:04:57.524 --> 0:05:00.524 to how we're physically feeling. And so I want to 0:05:00.644 --> 0:05:03.804 urge people to not forget about that. You just want 0:05:03.804 --> 0:05:06.164 to go out, you want to play everything, Like I 0:05:06.204 --> 0:05:08.404 will not be going out for drinks. I'm sorry, Please 0:05:08.444 --> 0:05:10.884 do not take this person after an event. I'm going 0:05:10.964 --> 0:05:13.564 to be going straight to bed because I think that 0:05:13.604 --> 0:05:16.204 these things are incredibly important. So, Nate, what do you think. 0:05:17.484 --> 0:05:19.484 I am not promising that I won't get drinks after 0:05:19.604 --> 0:05:23.724 an event sometimes here and there. But look, I played 0:05:23.724 --> 0:05:26.044 some online events yesterday and what happened is because of 0:05:26.084 --> 0:05:29.164 this flight thing we'll talk about later on right, my 0:05:29.324 --> 0:05:32.604 schedule got very messed up over the weekend. Basically I 0:05:32.604 --> 0:05:35.364 haven't like eaten very much, and I was playing some 0:05:35.404 --> 0:05:38.484 online tournaments and was like fucking starving and like, and 0:05:38.564 --> 0:05:40.404 I'm like, hangar tilt. 0:05:40.764 --> 0:05:43.724 Hangary is actually a thing and has been studied in psychology. 0:05:44.204 --> 0:05:46.804 It wasn't even like irrational. It's like, I really need 0:05:46.804 --> 0:05:48.764 some fucking food. I want to double up or go 0:05:48.884 --> 0:05:53.524 home because I didn't really manage my eating schedule properly. Yeah, no, 0:05:53.564 --> 0:05:57.404 it's Look, it's a seven week event. If you're here 0:05:57.524 --> 0:06:00.324 for four days or a week or something, you maybe 0:06:00.324 --> 0:06:03.004 can like burn the candle at both ends a little 0:06:03.044 --> 0:06:03.444 bit more. 0:06:03.484 --> 0:06:04.804 But remember the most. 0:06:04.684 --> 0:06:08.084 High stakes decisions that you make are later on in 0:06:08.124 --> 0:06:11.484 an event. You can play a beautiful poker on day one, 0:06:11.644 --> 0:06:13.404 day two. If you make your goal, I'll make you 0:06:13.404 --> 0:06:15.644 to day three or something. And then you start to 0:06:15.804 --> 0:06:18.804 get hanger tilt or or exhaustion tilt or whatever else, 0:06:18.884 --> 0:06:21.604 then then it's really negative ev right, even if you're 0:06:21.644 --> 0:06:23.884 like plus if to make the money. If you if 0:06:23.924 --> 0:06:27.284 you blow it and I've seen so many guys blow 0:06:27.324 --> 0:06:30.284 it on day three, day four of events, then you're flushing. 0:06:29.924 --> 0:06:33.124 Your money down the toilet. So yeah, look, I'm not judgmental. 0:06:33.204 --> 0:06:36.804 If you're somebody who has a routine that involves different things, 0:06:36.804 --> 0:06:38.604 and that's fine. If you eat more calories or less, 0:06:38.644 --> 0:06:40.564 or you drink or you don't or whatever, I'm not 0:06:40.604 --> 0:06:43.284 here to I'm not here to judge. But it requires 0:06:43.284 --> 0:06:46.644 a lot of time and concentration, and that has cumulative 0:06:46.684 --> 0:06:49.444 effects with the course of the event. So every decision 0:06:49.444 --> 0:06:51.244 you make away from the table effects in some way, 0:06:51.284 --> 0:06:52.324 you're your decision. 0:06:52.044 --> 0:06:52.524 At the table. 0:06:52.804 --> 0:06:54.644 So it sounds n like you agree with my number 0:06:54.684 --> 0:06:56.524 one tip. 0:06:55.684 --> 0:06:58.844 You have you since I have so many good tips 0:06:58.844 --> 0:07:00.364 for me, I have twenty one and I can't. They're 0:07:00.364 --> 0:07:05.324 like my babies, you can't, but have you read they're 0:07:05.364 --> 0:07:07.564 equally good. And one of the important things in poker 0:07:07.644 --> 0:07:10.604 is you have to sometimes randomize when you're indifferent between 0:07:11.004 --> 0:07:13.204 good options. So I'm going to have you randomly pick 0:07:13.284 --> 0:07:15.284 between one and twenty one. If it's like one of 0:07:15.324 --> 0:07:18.164 the worst tier of the twenty one, then I'll veto it, right, 0:07:18.364 --> 0:07:19.804 give me a number from one to twenty one. 0:07:19.964 --> 0:07:22.924 Okay, Well, I actually have no idea what number any 0:07:22.964 --> 0:07:24.604 of your tips are because I read that when it 0:07:24.644 --> 0:07:26.804 came out, which was now a few weeks ago. All right, 0:07:26.964 --> 0:07:28.964 let's go with number six. 0:07:29.684 --> 0:07:32.324 Six six is like that's a logistics thing for how 0:07:32.364 --> 0:07:33.644 you get your money to the world series. 0:07:33.844 --> 0:07:35.404 Could be a different one, come. 0:07:35.284 --> 0:07:38.004 On, all right, So sometimes, oh, this is actually a 0:07:38.044 --> 0:07:41.444 really really good point. When you truly randomize at the 0:07:41.484 --> 0:07:44.764 poker table, you have to do what your randomization tells you. So, 0:07:44.924 --> 0:07:47.564 by the way, randomization at the poker table means if 0:07:47.564 --> 0:07:49.964 there's a decision that you take X percent of the time, 0:07:50.004 --> 0:07:51.484 say twenty percent of the time, and one that you 0:07:51.484 --> 0:07:54.644 take eighty percent of the time. You can actually randomize 0:07:54.724 --> 0:07:56.644 and say, okay, if I have a number, you know, 0:07:56.804 --> 0:07:59.084 from zero to one hundred, if it's below twenty, then 0:07:59.124 --> 0:08:01.324 I take the twenty percent decision, and if it's above twenty, 0:08:01.364 --> 0:08:05.444 I take the eighty percent decision. But if you roll fifteen, 0:08:05.484 --> 0:08:08.004 you have to do that. And sometimes you're like, you know, what, 0:08:08.124 --> 0:08:09.924 fuck you randomize are? I'm just going to do what 0:08:09.964 --> 0:08:11.964 I want to do. I call, or I raise, or 0:08:12.004 --> 0:08:15.244 I do this. That's not why you randomize, So Nate, 0:08:15.524 --> 0:08:18.284 if we're truly randomizing, this is not why you randomize. 0:08:18.324 --> 0:08:20.484 If you truly think that every single one of your 0:08:20.524 --> 0:08:23.724 tips is equally valid, then your number one tip is 0:08:23.724 --> 0:08:25.124 going to be about how to register. 0:08:25.204 --> 0:08:27.684 Furtherwise, I'm sorry, I told you that in advance. I 0:08:27.764 --> 0:08:29.644 was part of the strategy. This is my one veto. 0:08:29.684 --> 0:08:29.804 PI. 0:08:30.644 --> 0:08:32.924 Okay, fine, this is your one veto. I just I'm 0:08:32.924 --> 0:08:35.964 going on records saying that I objecked all right. Tip 0:08:36.084 --> 0:08:37.164 number thirteen. 0:08:37.484 --> 0:08:39.564 This is a good one. Expect to come home with 0:08:39.644 --> 0:08:43.604 less money than you started with. I was talking with 0:08:43.644 --> 0:08:46.564 one of our mutual friends a couple of years ago. 0:08:47.724 --> 0:08:49.764 I won't name him because it was a dinner conversation. 0:08:49.804 --> 0:08:52.484 Maybe you were there, I forget, right, So is someone 0:08:52.524 --> 0:08:55.244 who'll be regarded as one of the probably top ten 0:08:55.284 --> 0:08:58.044 poker players, turn the poker players of all time, right, 0:08:58.724 --> 0:09:01.684 And he's like, yeah, I had a losing summer. And 0:09:01.804 --> 0:09:04.564 that's usually how it works if you run the math. 0:09:04.804 --> 0:09:07.564 So this is for a player who's playing lots of events, 0:09:07.604 --> 0:09:10.084 almost all the events varius till the misk events too. 0:09:10.244 --> 0:09:12.524 But even if you're a player with a large edge, 0:09:13.204 --> 0:09:16.644 having say fifty entries over a six week tournament or 0:09:16.644 --> 0:09:20.084 seven week tournament, the mess says that, like, because so 0:09:20.204 --> 0:09:23.204 much of the money is constentrat in getting final tables 0:09:23.244 --> 0:09:25.404 in first place, you're probably going to lose money of 0:09:25.444 --> 0:09:27.164 the course of a series. And if you're coming in 0:09:27.244 --> 0:09:30.004 for three weeks like I am, over two stretches this 0:09:30.124 --> 0:09:33.604 year even more likely. In fact, according to some simulations 0:09:33.644 --> 0:09:36.484 I've ran from my book, over a full year two 0:09:36.604 --> 0:09:39.844 hundred entries in live poker tournaments, a winning player is 0:09:39.884 --> 0:09:41.844 still almost fifty fifty to. 0:09:41.764 --> 0:09:42.524 Have a losing year. 0:09:42.804 --> 0:09:45.684 So coming in looking at the opportunity. If I may 0:09:45.724 --> 0:09:48.044 do great, it may go well, but like it's often 0:09:48.084 --> 0:09:50.804 going to be twelve bullets as a term poker players 0:09:50.884 --> 0:09:53.444 use slightly violent term for an entry new tournament, right, 0:09:53.604 --> 0:09:56.564 it might be twelve, fifteen, seventeen bullets no cashes. It 0:09:56.644 --> 0:10:00.124 might be twenty three bullets, two minimum cashes. That's how 0:10:00.164 --> 0:10:02.844 poker works. That's a lot of time, but most of 0:10:02.884 --> 0:10:03.124 the time. 0:10:03.164 --> 0:10:06.284 Frankly, I think that's actually a really good tip, and 0:10:06.324 --> 0:10:08.684 I think that that's a really important tip for life 0:10:08.884 --> 0:10:11.324 that in when you do something where you take risks, 0:10:11.364 --> 0:10:14.484 you have to think and plan accordingly and realize that 0:10:14.524 --> 0:10:17.044 it might go not your way. And so I'm actually 0:10:17.084 --> 0:10:19.804 going to fast forward to my tip number three because 0:10:19.804 --> 0:10:21.564 it's very related to this, and then we can go 0:10:21.604 --> 0:10:24.364 back to tip number two, which is keeping your bank 0:10:24.444 --> 0:10:27.404 roll management strict. So what I mean by that is 0:10:28.044 --> 0:10:31.244 when you come out here, or when you're making any 0:10:31.244 --> 0:10:33.764 sort of decision when you're going to be spending money, 0:10:34.324 --> 0:10:37.324 plan out ahead of time your entire bank roll and 0:10:37.484 --> 0:10:41.044 stick to it. So my first ever summer out here 0:10:41.084 --> 0:10:44.004 in Vegas for the World Series, I didn't do that 0:10:44.164 --> 0:10:47.604 because you know, I was bright eyed and bushy tailed. 0:10:47.644 --> 0:10:49.764 I was researching my book and I got caught up 0:10:49.764 --> 0:10:53.044 in it. There's this event called the Colossus, or as 0:10:53.084 --> 0:10:55.964 I like to call it, not affectionately after that summer, 0:10:56.084 --> 0:11:01.044 the colass Hole, because it has a million possible re 0:11:01.284 --> 0:11:03.324 entries and it's a very low price point. I think 0:11:03.364 --> 0:11:05.444 it was like five hundred or six hundred dollars, which 0:11:05.444 --> 0:11:07.524 for the World Series that's kind of as about about 0:11:07.564 --> 0:11:09.324 as low as it gets. But you can enter it 0:11:09.564 --> 0:11:12.324 ten times or twelve times, I don't even remember. And 0:11:12.444 --> 0:11:16.444 I remember playing and busting and playing and busting, and 0:11:16.604 --> 0:11:19.244 I think I only had two bullets budgeted for this event. 0:11:19.764 --> 0:11:22.964 And I kept going because everyone around me was like, Oh, 0:11:23.004 --> 0:11:25.724 this event is such great value. You really have to 0:11:25.764 --> 0:11:26.164 re enter. 0:11:26.444 --> 0:11:26.964 It's amazing. 0:11:27.004 --> 0:11:28.884 And I was like, yeah, you're right, it's great value. 0:11:29.004 --> 0:11:30.924 I have to re enter. And do you know what 0:11:31.084 --> 0:11:33.404 I was the great value. I didn't know what I 0:11:33.444 --> 0:11:35.724 was doing that summer. I did not play well like 0:11:35.764 --> 0:11:37.884 I had just kind of I was just learning the game. 0:11:38.404 --> 0:11:41.284 I went way over my head. They correctly got me 0:11:41.364 --> 0:11:43.204 to re enter, and then they took my money again 0:11:43.244 --> 0:11:45.684 and again, and that was a really expensive and really 0:11:45.724 --> 0:11:48.844 important lesson for me that when you're emotional, when you're 0:11:48.884 --> 0:11:50.644 kind of in the heat of the moment, it's easy 0:11:50.644 --> 0:11:53.124 to get caught up and say, what's an extra five 0:11:53.204 --> 0:11:56.964 hundred bucks when I've already budgeted ten thousand. No, your 0:11:57.004 --> 0:11:59.604 budget has to be strict, your bankroll has to be strict. 0:11:59.764 --> 0:12:02.924 And this is true of any risky decision that you take, 0:12:03.164 --> 0:12:05.404 whether you're a trader or whether you know it doesn't 0:12:05.484 --> 0:12:08.204 really matter. Otherwise you're going to go broke and that's 0:12:08.244 --> 0:12:10.444 not a fun feeling. I think this is actually quite 0:12:10.444 --> 0:12:13.284 related to your tip number one. 0:12:13.604 --> 0:12:16.084 I mean, look, it does depend kind of whether you 0:12:16.124 --> 0:12:19.044 see yourself as a professional or an amateur, and we 0:12:19.044 --> 0:12:20.684 probably do have some people in that audience are here 0:12:20.724 --> 0:12:23.724 as recreational players. It's a little bit different. I still 0:12:23.844 --> 0:12:28.124 don't like to play any event where I think I'm 0:12:28.164 --> 0:12:30.724 negative EV negative expected value, or if I do, I 0:12:30.764 --> 0:12:32.604 want to play the cheaper events, right, I will enter 0:12:32.644 --> 0:12:36.164 some mixed game event for ver, say fifteen hundred dollars, 0:12:36.244 --> 0:12:38.964 or maybe I'm negative ten percent ROI I'm not going 0:12:38.964 --> 0:12:43.484 to enter some ten thousand dollars tournament return on investment, right, 0:12:44.884 --> 0:12:48.444 And this is disputed kind of how much money an 0:12:48.564 --> 0:12:51.924 ROI is for a good or decent player, but plausibly, 0:12:52.724 --> 0:12:55.404 if you enter, like say a one thousand dollars event 0:12:55.404 --> 0:12:58.204 with a very soft field, your expected value in that 0:12:58.244 --> 0:13:00.844 event might be a few hundred bucks. I think some 0:13:00.844 --> 0:13:03.084 people is optimistic, but I think for like, for like 0:13:03.164 --> 0:13:06.124 good tournament pros and even good amateurs, those fields are 0:13:06.164 --> 0:13:10.164 so soft where your ev expected value might be three 0:13:10.244 --> 0:13:13.524 hundred dollars for one thousand dollars entry. But if it's 0:13:13.564 --> 0:13:16.444 below zero, if if you play the tournament a million times, 0:13:16.484 --> 0:13:19.484 I lose money on average. You know, even if I 0:13:19.484 --> 0:13:22.124 can afford to take that loss, I just psychologically something 0:13:22.164 --> 0:13:24.764 about that feels like it's burning money. Unless it's a 0:13:24.764 --> 0:13:26.684 game I'm trying to learn more, when it's an investment 0:13:26.684 --> 0:13:28.124 in the long term. 0:13:27.964 --> 0:13:29.804 I think that's a I think that's a great point. 0:13:29.964 --> 0:13:33.484 So Nate, I'm gonna do play the lottery again. Write 0:13:34.364 --> 0:13:38.524 one to twenty one. Let's go with twenty one. 0:13:39.084 --> 0:13:42.004 So your skill set is worth thinking about early in 0:13:42.044 --> 0:13:44.604 the main event, but don't get carried away in another setting. 0:13:44.684 --> 0:13:47.004 So this means, let's say you come in, and let's 0:13:47.044 --> 0:13:48.524 say we come in and we find the field of 0:13:48.564 --> 0:13:51.084 our dreams, right, it's all recreational players. Some of the 0:13:51.124 --> 0:13:54.684 pros aren't here yet. It's a very soft tournament. People 0:13:54.684 --> 0:13:57.884 can I think go too far sometimes in saying well, 0:13:57.924 --> 0:13:59.964 I have a skill edge relter to the field. The 0:14:00.004 --> 0:14:02.244 fact is that if you have, for example, if you're 0:14:02.284 --> 0:14:05.764 able to get a fifty five forty five coin flip 0:14:06.044 --> 0:14:09.044 so called situation, so you win fifty five percent of 0:14:09.084 --> 0:14:13.084 your flips, that's actually very very very good. If you're 0:14:13.084 --> 0:14:15.764 a professional gambler, a sports better who won fifty five 0:14:15.804 --> 0:14:19.244 percent of his or her bets consistently would beat the 0:14:19.284 --> 0:14:22.004 books and be on their way to being a very 0:14:22.004 --> 0:14:26.044 successful person at their craft. Now, if you're playing the 0:14:26.044 --> 0:14:28.644 main event, which will happen in seven weeks time, we'll 0:14:28.684 --> 0:14:31.004 have more segments on it. That's the one exception that's 0:14:31.004 --> 0:14:33.564 where you only at one entry. It's a ten thousand 0:14:33.604 --> 0:14:35.604 dollars entry. So it's like there's not like some alternative 0:14:35.604 --> 0:14:37.884 way to spend your time and your money that's equally good. 0:14:38.644 --> 0:14:41.124 And the field is so soft re alter to the 0:14:41.164 --> 0:14:43.084 buying level that I think you actually might want to 0:14:43.124 --> 0:14:46.084 be like a little bit more risk averse on day 0:14:46.084 --> 0:14:50.004 one and day two. But generally speaking, gambling is about 0:14:50.364 --> 0:14:53.724 pushing small edges. Don't underestimate your opponents either, even though 0:14:53.724 --> 0:14:55.564 there are more weak opponents at the World Series in 0:14:55.564 --> 0:14:58.564 the most venues. So it's like, yeah, you have to 0:14:58.564 --> 0:15:00.724 take risks to win a poker tournament. 0:15:01.044 --> 0:15:02.884 I got, I got nothing to add to that night. 0:15:02.964 --> 0:15:04.764 I think you have to take risk because a really 0:15:04.924 --> 0:15:08.204 really good UH is a good summation of a something 0:15:08.244 --> 0:15:10.644 that's super important and something that I need to learn 0:15:10.644 --> 0:15:14.524 from because I am someone who has consistently struggled with 0:15:14.924 --> 0:15:18.284 taking enough risks. That's counter to my personality. I'm more 0:15:18.284 --> 0:15:21.364 of a risk averse person, and I've really really worked 0:15:21.364 --> 0:15:23.964 hard to kind of work on that side, because you 0:15:24.084 --> 0:15:28.724 do have to take the correct risks based on the situation, 0:15:28.924 --> 0:15:33.004 based on the odds, based on the math and the percentages, 0:15:33.284 --> 0:15:35.724 not based on how you're feeling, which actually goes to 0:15:35.844 --> 0:15:38.764 my tip two. You know, going back in time since 0:15:38.764 --> 0:15:41.564 we al recovered tip three, this is my final tip, 0:15:41.764 --> 0:15:44.604 which is mental game and working on your mental game. 0:15:44.964 --> 0:15:48.204 So what I mean by that is that when you're 0:15:48.604 --> 0:15:51.724 playing poker, when you're in a decision making environment that's 0:15:51.764 --> 0:15:54.644 extremely high stress and high pressure, and where you're going 0:15:54.684 --> 0:15:57.404 to get tired because even if you've gotten beautiful rest 0:15:57.444 --> 0:16:00.284 and all of this, you're playing twelve thirteen hour days. 0:16:00.324 --> 0:16:02.964 This is a really long time to be thinking hard 0:16:03.004 --> 0:16:06.724 and making good decisions. You're going to get cognitively depleted. 0:16:06.764 --> 0:16:09.564 You're going to get emotional. There will be moments where 0:16:09.604 --> 0:16:11.964 you get angry because someone pissed you off. There will 0:16:12.004 --> 0:16:14.324 be moments when you are upset because you lost a 0:16:14.364 --> 0:16:17.084 big hand. There's moments when you're going to be elated 0:16:17.124 --> 0:16:19.484 because you won a big hand. And all of those 0:16:19.524 --> 0:16:22.884 things are going to mean that you are tilting. Tilting 0:16:22.964 --> 0:16:27.164 means putting emotion into your game instead of just doing 0:16:27.164 --> 0:16:32.564 the logical rational decision. And my advice to you is 0:16:33.204 --> 0:16:36.604 to sit down and figure out, okay, what makes you tilt, 0:16:36.684 --> 0:16:39.844 how do you tilt, and then to respond accordingly in 0:16:39.884 --> 0:16:43.124 the moment. I always say it's better to take a break, 0:16:43.404 --> 0:16:46.004 to actually physically get up from the table, take a lap. 0:16:46.044 --> 0:16:47.724 You might miss a hand, but you're not going to 0:16:47.724 --> 0:16:50.284 misplay that hand right, and it will help you cool off. 0:16:50.324 --> 0:16:53.084 It will help you actually physically remove yourself from that situation. 0:16:53.404 --> 0:16:56.044 Whatever you need to do to detilt, be aware of 0:16:56.084 --> 0:16:58.364 it and do it, and there's no shame in it. 0:16:58.724 --> 0:17:02.404 Everyone tilts. And this is something that distinguishes the truly 0:17:02.404 --> 0:17:04.724 great players from the ones who are just mathematically very 0:17:04.764 --> 0:17:08.004 good is their mental game, their ability to thrive under pressure. 0:17:08.284 --> 0:17:10.524 So that's my final tip, and I think it's a 0:17:10.644 --> 0:17:11.524 very important one. 0:17:12.084 --> 0:17:13.644 Maria, we're in the lightning around here. I need one 0:17:13.644 --> 0:17:15.764 more number. Roll at Roulett Wheel. Let's let's hope for 0:17:15.804 --> 0:17:16.364 a good one. 0:17:16.564 --> 0:17:20.164 All right, let's do number five. 0:17:21.884 --> 0:17:24.964 It's okay, I'll spin this into something better than it is. 0:17:25.244 --> 0:17:28.204 I'm bluffing a little bit here. It's poker after five 0:17:28.324 --> 0:17:30.644 is as we are both doing, stay within walking distance 0:17:30.764 --> 0:17:33.204 of the World Series of Poker. The broader lesson here 0:17:33.244 --> 0:17:36.004 is that you really want to minimize distractions. 0:17:36.444 --> 0:17:39.044 You do not want to have the worry. 0:17:38.764 --> 0:17:41.244 About fighting through traffic or finding a parking space. The 0:17:41.244 --> 0:17:43.524 hotels are actually quite nice here, as is Maria's apartment 0:17:43.724 --> 0:17:47.724 by the way. But like once you get in deep 0:17:47.724 --> 0:17:50.324 in an event, right, you were on the clock for 0:17:50.444 --> 0:17:53.764 twelve hours a day. Let's say that you want to 0:17:53.804 --> 0:17:57.244 sleep seven hours. Let's say you want to eat something 0:17:57.444 --> 0:17:59.044 in the morning. Let's say you want to work out. 0:17:59.124 --> 0:18:00.524 Let's say you want to have a little bit of 0:18:00.804 --> 0:18:03.964 study time right. You know, let's say you need an 0:18:04.004 --> 0:18:05.724 hour to wind round and have a drink at you 0:18:05.844 --> 0:18:08.124 in the evening, which you often do if if you've 0:18:08.164 --> 0:18:09.924 had a long day, right all the sudden, you have 0:18:09.964 --> 0:18:13.444 committed like twenty four twenty five hours already, so the 0:18:13.524 --> 0:18:16.684 last thing you want to do is have to worry 0:18:16.684 --> 0:18:18.444 about like a long commute to the cute air and 0:18:18.484 --> 0:18:20.884 b you bought forty minutes out of town where you 0:18:20.924 --> 0:18:23.084 can't find any grocery store it's open later, or anything 0:18:23.124 --> 0:18:25.684 like that. I've even had things where if I made 0:18:25.724 --> 0:18:27.764 like day three of an event, I got a different 0:18:27.764 --> 0:18:30.844 hotel room closer to that venue, because at that point, 0:18:31.124 --> 0:18:33.404 even like an extra hour of sleep is worth an 0:18:33.404 --> 0:18:33.884 awful lot. 0:18:34.844 --> 0:18:35.124 Great. 0:18:36.004 --> 0:18:38.724 Well, Nate, I hope that you are staying close to 0:18:38.764 --> 0:18:42.364 the hotel this time, and I am so excited to 0:18:42.484 --> 0:18:44.844 see you in a few hours and play our first 0:18:44.884 --> 0:18:46.924 event together during this world series. 0:18:47.964 --> 0:18:50.684 I'm already registered, Maria, so I did so much. 0:18:50.764 --> 0:18:54.844 Okay, let's do it, so. 0:19:03.324 --> 0:19:03.644 Maria. 0:19:03.804 --> 0:19:07.164 Last Thursday, the twenty third, the SEC approved an ETF 0:19:07.164 --> 0:19:12.044 application for Ethereum. We have a variety of listeners who 0:19:12.124 --> 0:19:15.924 are ranged from I'm sure very crypto knowledgeable to thinking 0:19:15.924 --> 0:19:17.364