1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:26,484 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hey everyone, welcome back to Risky Business, a show 2 00:00:26,524 --> 00:00:29,964 Speaker 1: about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova and. 3 00:00:29,924 --> 00:00:32,924 Speaker 2: I'm Nate Silver. Today we have a lot to get into. 4 00:00:33,044 --> 00:00:36,244 Speaker 2: We are literally hours away and across the street from 5 00:00:36,244 --> 00:00:37,044 Speaker 2: the World Chairs of Poker. 6 00:00:37,084 --> 00:00:37,764 Speaker 3: We'll talk about that. 7 00:00:38,084 --> 00:00:42,524 Speaker 1: We'll also be talking about some huge news in the cryptosphere. 8 00:00:42,604 --> 00:00:46,324 Speaker 1: The approval of the eth ETFs and crypto is something 9 00:00:46,364 --> 00:00:49,244 Speaker 1: that is very firmly in the realm of Risky Business, 10 00:00:49,244 --> 00:00:51,044 Speaker 1: even though we haven't talked about it yet on the show. 11 00:00:51,324 --> 00:00:54,364 Speaker 2: And finally, inspired by an unexpected detour, I took to Buffalo, 12 00:00:54,484 --> 00:00:56,204 Speaker 2: New York on the way into Las Vegas. We'll talk 13 00:00:56,204 --> 00:00:59,444 Speaker 2: about new rules by the Department of Presportation governing compensation 14 00:00:59,484 --> 00:01:01,884 Speaker 2: ref your flight is late and how that might affect 15 00:01:01,884 --> 00:01:04,764 Speaker 2: the risk taking behavior of both passengers and airlines. 16 00:01:05,164 --> 00:01:07,084 Speaker 1: Yes, I'm looking forward to that one night, because my 17 00:01:07,164 --> 00:01:08,964 Speaker 1: flight was also very very late. 18 00:01:09,484 --> 00:01:10,924 Speaker 3: You did not end up in Buffalo. 19 00:01:11,404 --> 00:01:12,964 Speaker 1: I did not end up in Buffalo. 20 00:01:13,084 --> 00:01:15,764 Speaker 3: Name and Buffalo, Maria. 21 00:01:15,324 --> 00:01:16,364 Speaker 4: Okay, Okay, Buffalo. 22 00:01:16,804 --> 00:01:19,844 Speaker 1: You win this one, and I look forward to getting 23 00:01:19,884 --> 00:01:27,564 Speaker 1: into it. At the end of the show. Let's begin, though, 24 00:01:27,604 --> 00:01:30,324 Speaker 1: with the fact that we both got here So we 25 00:01:30,444 --> 00:01:34,684 Speaker 1: are both in fabulous Las Vegas for the opening of 26 00:01:34,724 --> 00:01:37,164 Speaker 1: the World Series of Poker, and we are taping this 27 00:01:37,324 --> 00:01:42,004 Speaker 1: on Tuesday, May twenty eighth, which is literally the opening 28 00:01:42,124 --> 00:01:44,364 Speaker 1: day of the World Series, and you and I will 29 00:01:44,404 --> 00:01:47,844 Speaker 1: both be playing the first opening event, which is a 30 00:01:47,924 --> 00:01:52,844 Speaker 1: five thousand dollars players Championship, which is exciting and I mean, 31 00:01:52,884 --> 00:01:53,964 Speaker 1: I'm excited. Are you excited? 32 00:01:54,044 --> 00:01:56,844 Speaker 2: Night, Yeah, I've never actually been here for the exact 33 00:01:56,884 --> 00:01:59,804 Speaker 2: start of the World Series before. It's it's a lot 34 00:01:59,844 --> 00:02:01,404 Speaker 2: better than the end, right we were there till the 35 00:02:01,444 --> 00:02:04,084 Speaker 2: bitter end last year. The end is kind of depressing. 36 00:02:04,124 --> 00:02:08,124 Speaker 2: They're like literally tearing the building down. The beginning, everyone's 37 00:02:08,124 --> 00:02:10,524 Speaker 2: bank rolls are full, everybody he's in a good mood. 38 00:02:11,404 --> 00:02:13,204 Speaker 2: This is a new event this year to start out 39 00:02:13,204 --> 00:02:16,444 Speaker 2: with a five K. Usually it's something smaller. I'll be 40 00:02:16,524 --> 00:02:19,364 Speaker 2: curious to see what type of field it draws. Usually 41 00:02:19,444 --> 00:02:23,044 Speaker 2: five K is like high enough that the amateur players 42 00:02:23,084 --> 00:02:26,604 Speaker 2: are a little bit just waited by it. But it's 43 00:02:26,644 --> 00:02:29,724 Speaker 2: the first time bank rolls, it's the first event. I 44 00:02:29,724 --> 00:02:32,084 Speaker 2: think some of the pros from Europe are taking their 45 00:02:32,084 --> 00:02:34,244 Speaker 2: time and getting here, so it might be a pretty 46 00:02:34,244 --> 00:02:34,644 Speaker 2: good field. 47 00:02:34,644 --> 00:02:35,124 Speaker 3: We will see. 48 00:02:35,404 --> 00:02:39,284 Speaker 1: Yeah, So for anyone who wants to join us this summer, 49 00:02:39,564 --> 00:02:42,604 Speaker 1: or anyone who is just thinking about doing the World 50 00:02:42,644 --> 00:02:44,844 Speaker 1: Series or something that is kind of this sort of 51 00:02:45,044 --> 00:02:49,084 Speaker 1: marathon experience where you have to keep making good, risky 52 00:02:49,124 --> 00:02:51,644 Speaker 1: decisions over and over and over. It doesn't even have 53 00:02:51,684 --> 00:02:54,324 Speaker 1: to be poker. Nate and I have both come up 54 00:02:54,364 --> 00:02:59,084 Speaker 1: with our top three tips for dealing with a situation 55 00:02:59,204 --> 00:03:00,764 Speaker 1: like this, and we're going to be talking about it 56 00:03:00,764 --> 00:03:03,244 Speaker 1: in the context of the World Series, but I do 57 00:03:03,324 --> 00:03:05,204 Speaker 1: want to always keep in mind that it can be 58 00:03:05,244 --> 00:03:10,244 Speaker 1: abstracted to other decision making situations. And we don't know 59 00:03:10,324 --> 00:03:12,964 Speaker 1: each other's top tips. So I'm going to start, and 60 00:03:13,044 --> 00:03:14,964 Speaker 1: you know, we're going to go one at a time 61 00:03:15,124 --> 00:03:18,084 Speaker 1: and throw out one tip and these are actually in 62 00:03:18,124 --> 00:03:22,324 Speaker 1: our order of importance, and react and see whether we're 63 00:03:22,364 --> 00:03:24,324 Speaker 1: thinking about this in the same way or in very 64 00:03:24,324 --> 00:03:27,484 Speaker 1: different ways. It would be very fun either way. And 65 00:03:27,524 --> 00:03:29,204 Speaker 1: like I said, we have no idea what the other 66 00:03:29,284 --> 00:03:31,884 Speaker 1: person is going to say, although I have more idea 67 00:03:31,964 --> 00:03:34,564 Speaker 1: than Nate, because Nate did have a list of his 68 00:03:34,604 --> 00:03:38,004 Speaker 1: top twenty one tips for the World Series on his newsletter, 69 00:03:38,124 --> 00:03:40,684 Speaker 1: so there's that. But he's seen nothing from me, But 70 00:03:40,724 --> 00:03:42,724 Speaker 1: actually I wrote a book about it, so maybe he 71 00:03:42,764 --> 00:03:46,484 Speaker 1: has some idea too. All Right, my top tip would 72 00:03:46,524 --> 00:03:50,524 Speaker 1: be number one, take care of yourself. People are here 73 00:03:50,724 --> 00:03:54,044 Speaker 1: to play poker and they get super excited. I'm really excited, 74 00:03:54,364 --> 00:03:58,484 Speaker 1: and they forget the basics like get exercise, get sleep, 75 00:03:58,724 --> 00:04:02,204 Speaker 1: and eat good food and buy good food. I don't 76 00:04:02,244 --> 00:04:05,124 Speaker 1: mean like food that you're going to be like, oh yeah, 77 00:04:05,124 --> 00:04:08,124 Speaker 1: this is delicious. I mean actually nourishing food that's good 78 00:04:08,164 --> 00:04:11,044 Speaker 1: for your brain, good for you decision making, and there's 79 00:04:11,084 --> 00:04:13,604 Speaker 1: a lot of science on this. All of these things 80 00:04:13,764 --> 00:04:16,884 Speaker 1: matter when you're trying to make good decisions. If you 81 00:04:16,924 --> 00:04:20,284 Speaker 1: haven't slept well, your decision making capacity is going to 82 00:04:20,324 --> 00:04:23,204 Speaker 1: go downhill. If you've been inside all day, if you 83 00:04:23,204 --> 00:04:25,444 Speaker 1: haven't been moving, if you haven't exercised, if you haven't 84 00:04:25,484 --> 00:04:28,924 Speaker 1: gotten that blood flow going, your decision making capacity is 85 00:04:29,004 --> 00:04:32,884 Speaker 1: going to go downhill. If you're eating crap, your decision 86 00:04:32,924 --> 00:04:36,644 Speaker 1: making capacity once again is going to go downhill. There's 87 00:04:36,684 --> 00:04:39,284 Speaker 1: even a funny study, it's one of my kind of 88 00:04:39,324 --> 00:04:42,884 Speaker 1: pet favorite psych studies because it's so ridiculous, that shows 89 00:04:42,884 --> 00:04:45,884 Speaker 1: that your risk taking propensities become less than optimal when 90 00:04:45,884 --> 00:04:47,844 Speaker 1: you have to go to the bathroom if you have 91 00:04:47,884 --> 00:04:52,084 Speaker 1: to pee, you actually start evaluating risks incorrectly. Mind and 92 00:04:52,164 --> 00:04:57,124 Speaker 1: body are intimately connected. Decision making ability is intimately related 93 00:04:57,524 --> 00:05:00,524 Speaker 1: to how we're physically feeling. And so I want to 94 00:05:00,644 --> 00:05:03,804 Speaker 1: urge people to not forget about that. You just want 95 00:05:03,804 --> 00:05:06,164 Speaker 1: to go out, you want to play everything, Like I 96 00:05:06,204 --> 00:05:08,404 Speaker 1: will not be going out for drinks. I'm sorry, Please 97 00:05:08,444 --> 00:05:10,884 Speaker 1: do not take this person after an event. I'm going 98 00:05:10,964 --> 00:05:13,564 Speaker 1: to be going straight to bed because I think that 99 00:05:13,604 --> 00:05:16,204 Speaker 1: these things are incredibly important. So, Nate, what do you think. 100 00:05:17,484 --> 00:05:19,484 Speaker 2: I am not promising that I won't get drinks after 101 00:05:19,604 --> 00:05:23,724 Speaker 2: an event sometimes here and there. But look, I played 102 00:05:23,724 --> 00:05:26,044 Speaker 2: some online events yesterday and what happened is because of 103 00:05:26,084 --> 00:05:29,164 Speaker 2: this flight thing we'll talk about later on right, my 104 00:05:29,324 --> 00:05:32,604 Speaker 2: schedule got very messed up over the weekend. Basically I 105 00:05:32,604 --> 00:05:35,364 Speaker 2: haven't like eaten very much, and I was playing some 106 00:05:35,404 --> 00:05:38,484 Speaker 2: online tournaments and was like fucking starving and like, and 107 00:05:38,564 --> 00:05:40,404 Speaker 2: I'm like, hangar tilt. 108 00:05:40,764 --> 00:05:43,724 Speaker 1: Hangary is actually a thing and has been studied in psychology. 109 00:05:44,204 --> 00:05:46,804 Speaker 2: It wasn't even like irrational. It's like, I really need 110 00:05:46,804 --> 00:05:48,764 Speaker 2: some fucking food. I want to double up or go 111 00:05:48,884 --> 00:05:53,524 Speaker 2: home because I didn't really manage my eating schedule properly. Yeah, no, 112 00:05:53,564 --> 00:05:57,404 Speaker 2: it's Look, it's a seven week event. If you're here 113 00:05:57,524 --> 00:06:00,324 Speaker 2: for four days or a week or something, you maybe 114 00:06:00,324 --> 00:06:03,004 Speaker 2: can like burn the candle at both ends a little 115 00:06:03,044 --> 00:06:03,444 Speaker 2: bit more. 116 00:06:03,484 --> 00:06:04,804 Speaker 3: But remember the most. 117 00:06:04,684 --> 00:06:08,084 Speaker 2: High stakes decisions that you make are later on in 118 00:06:08,124 --> 00:06:11,484 Speaker 2: an event. You can play a beautiful poker on day one, 119 00:06:11,644 --> 00:06:13,404 Speaker 2: day two. If you make your goal, I'll make you 120 00:06:13,404 --> 00:06:15,644 Speaker 2: to day three or something. And then you start to 121 00:06:15,804 --> 00:06:18,804 Speaker 2: get hanger tilt or or exhaustion tilt or whatever else, 122 00:06:18,884 --> 00:06:21,604 Speaker 2: then then it's really negative ev right, even if you're 123 00:06:21,644 --> 00:06:23,884 Speaker 2: like plus if to make the money. If you if 124 00:06:23,924 --> 00:06:27,284 Speaker 2: you blow it and I've seen so many guys blow 125 00:06:27,324 --> 00:06:30,284 Speaker 2: it on day three, day four of events, then you're flushing. 126 00:06:29,924 --> 00:06:33,124 Speaker 3: Your money down the toilet. So yeah, look, I'm not judgmental. 127 00:06:33,204 --> 00:06:36,804 Speaker 2: If you're somebody who has a routine that involves different things, 128 00:06:36,804 --> 00:06:38,604 Speaker 2: and that's fine. If you eat more calories or less, 129 00:06:38,644 --> 00:06:40,564 Speaker 2: or you drink or you don't or whatever, I'm not 130 00:06:40,604 --> 00:06:43,284 Speaker 2: here to I'm not here to judge. But it requires 131 00:06:43,284 --> 00:06:46,644 Speaker 2: a lot of time and concentration, and that has cumulative 132 00:06:46,684 --> 00:06:49,444 Speaker 2: effects with the course of the event. So every decision 133 00:06:49,444 --> 00:06:51,244 Speaker 2: you make away from the table effects in some way, 134 00:06:51,284 --> 00:06:52,324 Speaker 2: you're your decision. 135 00:06:52,044 --> 00:06:52,524 Speaker 3: At the table. 136 00:06:52,804 --> 00:06:54,644 Speaker 1: So it sounds n like you agree with my number 137 00:06:54,684 --> 00:06:56,524 Speaker 1: one tip. 138 00:06:55,684 --> 00:06:58,844 Speaker 2: You have you since I have so many good tips 139 00:06:58,844 --> 00:07:00,364 Speaker 2: for me, I have twenty one and I can't. They're 140 00:07:00,364 --> 00:07:05,324 Speaker 2: like my babies, you can't, but have you read they're 141 00:07:05,364 --> 00:07:07,564 Speaker 2: equally good. And one of the important things in poker 142 00:07:07,644 --> 00:07:10,604 Speaker 2: is you have to sometimes randomize when you're indifferent between 143 00:07:11,004 --> 00:07:13,204 Speaker 2: good options. So I'm going to have you randomly pick 144 00:07:13,284 --> 00:07:15,284 Speaker 2: between one and twenty one. If it's like one of 145 00:07:15,324 --> 00:07:18,164 Speaker 2: the worst tier of the twenty one, then I'll veto it, right, 146 00:07:18,364 --> 00:07:19,804 Speaker 2: give me a number from one to twenty one. 147 00:07:19,964 --> 00:07:22,924 Speaker 1: Okay, Well, I actually have no idea what number any 148 00:07:22,964 --> 00:07:24,604 Speaker 1: of your tips are because I read that when it 149 00:07:24,644 --> 00:07:26,804 Speaker 1: came out, which was now a few weeks ago. All right, 150 00:07:26,964 --> 00:07:28,964 Speaker 1: let's go with number six. 151 00:07:29,684 --> 00:07:32,324 Speaker 2: Six six is like that's a logistics thing for how 152 00:07:32,364 --> 00:07:33,644 Speaker 2: you get your money to the world series. 153 00:07:33,844 --> 00:07:35,404 Speaker 3: Could be a different one, come. 154 00:07:35,284 --> 00:07:38,004 Speaker 1: On, all right, So sometimes, oh, this is actually a 155 00:07:38,044 --> 00:07:41,444 Speaker 1: really really good point. When you truly randomize at the 156 00:07:41,484 --> 00:07:44,764 Speaker 1: poker table, you have to do what your randomization tells you. So, 157 00:07:44,924 --> 00:07:47,564 Speaker 1: by the way, randomization at the poker table means if 158 00:07:47,564 --> 00:07:49,964 Speaker 1: there's a decision that you take X percent of the time, 159 00:07:50,004 --> 00:07:51,484 Speaker 1: say twenty percent of the time, and one that you 160 00:07:51,484 --> 00:07:54,644 Speaker 1: take eighty percent of the time. You can actually randomize 161 00:07:54,724 --> 00:07:56,644 Speaker 1: and say, okay, if I have a number, you know, 162 00:07:56,804 --> 00:07:59,084 Speaker 1: from zero to one hundred, if it's below twenty, then 163 00:07:59,124 --> 00:08:01,324 Speaker 1: I take the twenty percent decision, and if it's above twenty, 164 00:08:01,364 --> 00:08:05,444 Speaker 1: I take the eighty percent decision. But if you roll fifteen, 165 00:08:05,484 --> 00:08:08,004 Speaker 1: you have to do that. And sometimes you're like, you know, what, 166 00:08:08,124 --> 00:08:09,924 Speaker 1: fuck you randomize are? I'm just going to do what 167 00:08:09,964 --> 00:08:11,964 Speaker 1: I want to do. I call, or I raise, or 168 00:08:12,004 --> 00:08:15,244 Speaker 1: I do this. That's not why you randomize, So Nate, 169 00:08:15,524 --> 00:08:18,284 Speaker 1: if we're truly randomizing, this is not why you randomize. 170 00:08:18,324 --> 00:08:20,484 Speaker 1: If you truly think that every single one of your 171 00:08:20,524 --> 00:08:23,724 Speaker 1: tips is equally valid, then your number one tip is 172 00:08:23,724 --> 00:08:25,124 Speaker 1: going to be about how to register. 173 00:08:25,204 --> 00:08:27,684 Speaker 3: Furtherwise, I'm sorry, I told you that in advance. I 174 00:08:27,764 --> 00:08:29,644 Speaker 3: was part of the strategy. This is my one veto. 175 00:08:29,684 --> 00:08:29,804 Speaker 4: PI. 176 00:08:30,644 --> 00:08:32,924 Speaker 1: Okay, fine, this is your one veto. I just I'm 177 00:08:32,924 --> 00:08:35,964 Speaker 1: going on records saying that I objecked all right. Tip 178 00:08:36,084 --> 00:08:37,164 Speaker 1: number thirteen. 179 00:08:37,484 --> 00:08:39,564 Speaker 2: This is a good one. Expect to come home with 180 00:08:39,644 --> 00:08:43,604 Speaker 2: less money than you started with. I was talking with 181 00:08:43,644 --> 00:08:46,564 Speaker 2: one of our mutual friends a couple of years ago. 182 00:08:47,724 --> 00:08:49,764 Speaker 2: I won't name him because it was a dinner conversation. 183 00:08:49,804 --> 00:08:52,484 Speaker 2: Maybe you were there, I forget, right, So is someone 184 00:08:52,524 --> 00:08:55,244 Speaker 2: who'll be regarded as one of the probably top ten 185 00:08:55,284 --> 00:08:58,044 Speaker 2: poker players, turn the poker players of all time, right, 186 00:08:58,724 --> 00:09:01,684 Speaker 2: And he's like, yeah, I had a losing summer. And 187 00:09:01,804 --> 00:09:04,564 Speaker 2: that's usually how it works if you run the math. 188 00:09:04,804 --> 00:09:07,564 Speaker 2: So this is for a player who's playing lots of events, 189 00:09:07,604 --> 00:09:10,084 Speaker 2: almost all the events varius till the misk events too. 190 00:09:10,244 --> 00:09:12,524 Speaker 2: But even if you're a player with a large edge, 191 00:09:13,204 --> 00:09:16,644 Speaker 2: having say fifty entries over a six week tournament or 192 00:09:16,644 --> 00:09:20,084 Speaker 2: seven week tournament, the mess says that, like, because so 193 00:09:20,204 --> 00:09:23,204 Speaker 2: much of the money is constentrat in getting final tables 194 00:09:23,244 --> 00:09:25,404 Speaker 2: in first place, you're probably going to lose money of 195 00:09:25,444 --> 00:09:27,164 Speaker 2: the course of a series. And if you're coming in 196 00:09:27,244 --> 00:09:30,004 Speaker 2: for three weeks like I am, over two stretches this 197 00:09:30,124 --> 00:09:33,604 Speaker 2: year even more likely. In fact, according to some simulations 198 00:09:33,644 --> 00:09:36,484 Speaker 2: I've ran from my book, over a full year two 199 00:09:36,604 --> 00:09:39,844 Speaker 2: hundred entries in live poker tournaments, a winning player is 200 00:09:39,884 --> 00:09:41,844 Speaker 2: still almost fifty fifty to. 201 00:09:41,764 --> 00:09:42,524 Speaker 3: Have a losing year. 202 00:09:42,804 --> 00:09:45,684 Speaker 2: So coming in looking at the opportunity. If I may 203 00:09:45,724 --> 00:09:48,044 Speaker 2: do great, it may go well, but like it's often 204 00:09:48,084 --> 00:09:50,804 Speaker 2: going to be twelve bullets as a term poker players 205 00:09:50,884 --> 00:09:53,444 Speaker 2: use slightly violent term for an entry new tournament, right, 206 00:09:53,604 --> 00:09:56,564 Speaker 2: it might be twelve, fifteen, seventeen bullets no cashes. It 207 00:09:56,644 --> 00:10:00,124 Speaker 2: might be twenty three bullets, two minimum cashes. That's how 208 00:10:00,164 --> 00:10:02,844 Speaker 2: poker works. That's a lot of time, but most of 209 00:10:02,884 --> 00:10:03,124 Speaker 2: the time. 210 00:10:03,164 --> 00:10:06,284 Speaker 1: Frankly, I think that's actually a really good tip, and 211 00:10:06,324 --> 00:10:08,684 Speaker 1: I think that that's a really important tip for life 212 00:10:08,884 --> 00:10:11,324 Speaker 1: that in when you do something where you take risks, 213 00:10:11,364 --> 00:10:14,484 Speaker 1: you have to think and plan accordingly and realize that 214 00:10:14,524 --> 00:10:17,044 Speaker 1: it might go not your way. And so I'm actually 215 00:10:17,084 --> 00:10:19,804 Speaker 1: going to fast forward to my tip number three because 216 00:10:19,804 --> 00:10:21,564 Speaker 1: it's very related to this, and then we can go 217 00:10:21,604 --> 00:10:24,364 Speaker 1: back to tip number two, which is keeping your bank 218 00:10:24,444 --> 00:10:27,404 Speaker 1: roll management strict. So what I mean by that is 219 00:10:28,044 --> 00:10:31,244 Speaker 1: when you come out here, or when you're making any 220 00:10:31,244 --> 00:10:33,764 Speaker 1: sort of decision when you're going to be spending money, 221 00:10:34,324 --> 00:10:37,324 Speaker 1: plan out ahead of time your entire bank roll and 222 00:10:37,484 --> 00:10:41,044 Speaker 1: stick to it. So my first ever summer out here 223 00:10:41,084 --> 00:10:44,004 Speaker 1: in Vegas for the World Series, I didn't do that 224 00:10:44,164 --> 00:10:47,604 Speaker 1: because you know, I was bright eyed and bushy tailed. 225 00:10:47,644 --> 00:10:49,764 Speaker 1: I was researching my book and I got caught up 226 00:10:49,764 --> 00:10:53,044 Speaker 1: in it. There's this event called the Colossus, or as 227 00:10:53,084 --> 00:10:55,964 Speaker 1: I like to call it, not affectionately after that summer, 228 00:10:56,084 --> 00:11:01,044 Speaker 1: the colass Hole, because it has a million possible re 229 00:11:01,284 --> 00:11:03,324 Speaker 1: entries and it's a very low price point. I think 230 00:11:03,364 --> 00:11:05,444 Speaker 1: it was like five hundred or six hundred dollars, which 231 00:11:05,444 --> 00:11:07,524 Speaker 1: for the World Series that's kind of as about about 232 00:11:07,564 --> 00:11:09,324 Speaker 1: as low as it gets. But you can enter it 233 00:11:09,564 --> 00:11:12,324 Speaker 1: ten times or twelve times, I don't even remember. And 234 00:11:12,444 --> 00:11:16,444 Speaker 1: I remember playing and busting and playing and busting, and 235 00:11:16,604 --> 00:11:19,244 Speaker 1: I think I only had two bullets budgeted for this event. 236 00:11:19,764 --> 00:11:22,964 Speaker 1: And I kept going because everyone around me was like, Oh, 237 00:11:23,004 --> 00:11:25,724 Speaker 1: this event is such great value. You really have to 238 00:11:25,764 --> 00:11:26,164 Speaker 1: re enter. 239 00:11:26,444 --> 00:11:26,964 Speaker 3: It's amazing. 240 00:11:27,004 --> 00:11:28,884 Speaker 1: And I was like, yeah, you're right, it's great value. 241 00:11:29,004 --> 00:11:30,924 Speaker 1: I have to re enter. And do you know what 242 00:11:31,084 --> 00:11:33,404 Speaker 1: I was the great value. I didn't know what I 243 00:11:33,444 --> 00:11:35,724 Speaker 1: was doing that summer. I did not play well like 244 00:11:35,764 --> 00:11:37,884 Speaker 1: I had just kind of I was just learning the game. 245 00:11:38,404 --> 00:11:41,284 Speaker 1: I went way over my head. They correctly got me 246 00:11:41,364 --> 00:11:43,204 Speaker 1: to re enter, and then they took my money again 247 00:11:43,244 --> 00:11:45,684 Speaker 1: and again, and that was a really expensive and really 248 00:11:45,724 --> 00:11:48,844 Speaker 1: important lesson for me that when you're emotional, when you're 249 00:11:48,884 --> 00:11:50,644 Speaker 1: kind of in the heat of the moment, it's easy 250 00:11:50,644 --> 00:11:53,124 Speaker 1: to get caught up and say, what's an extra five 251 00:11:53,204 --> 00:11:56,964 Speaker 1: hundred bucks when I've already budgeted ten thousand. No, your 252 00:11:57,004 --> 00:11:59,604 Speaker 1: budget has to be strict, your bankroll has to be strict. 253 00:11:59,764 --> 00:12:02,924 Speaker 1: And this is true of any risky decision that you take, 254 00:12:03,164 --> 00:12:05,404 Speaker 1: whether you're a trader or whether you know it doesn't 255 00:12:05,484 --> 00:12:08,204 Speaker 1: really matter. Otherwise you're going to go broke and that's 256 00:12:08,244 --> 00:12:10,444 Speaker 1: not a fun feeling. I think this is actually quite 257 00:12:10,444 --> 00:12:13,284 Speaker 1: related to your tip number one. 258 00:12:13,604 --> 00:12:16,084 Speaker 2: I mean, look, it does depend kind of whether you 259 00:12:16,124 --> 00:12:19,044 Speaker 2: see yourself as a professional or an amateur, and we 260 00:12:19,044 --> 00:12:20,684 Speaker 2: probably do have some people in that audience are here 261 00:12:20,724 --> 00:12:23,724 Speaker 2: as recreational players. It's a little bit different. I still 262 00:12:23,844 --> 00:12:28,124 Speaker 2: don't like to play any event where I think I'm 263 00:12:28,164 --> 00:12:30,724 Speaker 2: negative EV negative expected value, or if I do, I 264 00:12:30,764 --> 00:12:32,604 Speaker 2: want to play the cheaper events, right, I will enter 265 00:12:32,644 --> 00:12:36,164 Speaker 2: some mixed game event for ver, say fifteen hundred dollars, 266 00:12:36,244 --> 00:12:38,964 Speaker 2: or maybe I'm negative ten percent ROI I'm not going 267 00:12:38,964 --> 00:12:43,484 Speaker 2: to enter some ten thousand dollars tournament return on investment, right, 268 00:12:44,884 --> 00:12:48,444 Speaker 2: And this is disputed kind of how much money an 269 00:12:48,564 --> 00:12:51,924 Speaker 2: ROI is for a good or decent player, but plausibly, 270 00:12:52,724 --> 00:12:55,404 Speaker 2: if you enter, like say a one thousand dollars event 271 00:12:55,404 --> 00:12:58,204 Speaker 2: with a very soft field, your expected value in that 272 00:12:58,244 --> 00:13:00,844 Speaker 2: event might be a few hundred bucks. I think some 273 00:13:00,844 --> 00:13:03,084 Speaker 2: people is optimistic, but I think for like, for like 274 00:13:03,164 --> 00:13:06,124 Speaker 2: good tournament pros and even good amateurs, those fields are 275 00:13:06,164 --> 00:13:10,164 Speaker 2: so soft where your ev expected value might be three 276 00:13:10,244 --> 00:13:13,524 Speaker 2: hundred dollars for one thousand dollars entry. But if it's 277 00:13:13,564 --> 00:13:16,444 Speaker 2: below zero, if if you play the tournament a million times, 278 00:13:16,484 --> 00:13:19,484 Speaker 2: I lose money on average. You know, even if I 279 00:13:19,484 --> 00:13:22,124 Speaker 2: can afford to take that loss, I just psychologically something 280 00:13:22,164 --> 00:13:24,764 Speaker 2: about that feels like it's burning money. Unless it's a 281 00:13:24,764 --> 00:13:26,684 Speaker 2: game I'm trying to learn more, when it's an investment 282 00:13:26,684 --> 00:13:28,124 Speaker 2: in the long term. 283 00:13:27,964 --> 00:13:29,804 Speaker 1: I think that's a I think that's a great point. 284 00:13:29,964 --> 00:13:33,484 Speaker 1: So Nate, I'm gonna do play the lottery again. Write 285 00:13:34,364 --> 00:13:38,524 Speaker 1: one to twenty one. Let's go with twenty one. 286 00:13:39,084 --> 00:13:42,004 Speaker 2: So your skill set is worth thinking about early in 287 00:13:42,044 --> 00:13:44,604 Speaker 2: the main event, but don't get carried away in another setting. 288 00:13:44,684 --> 00:13:47,004 Speaker 2: So this means, let's say you come in, and let's 289 00:13:47,044 --> 00:13:48,524 Speaker 2: say we come in and we find the field of 290 00:13:48,564 --> 00:13:51,084 Speaker 2: our dreams, right, it's all recreational players. Some of the 291 00:13:51,124 --> 00:13:54,684 Speaker 2: pros aren't here yet. It's a very soft tournament. People 292 00:13:54,684 --> 00:13:57,884 Speaker 2: can I think go too far sometimes in saying well, 293 00:13:57,924 --> 00:13:59,964 Speaker 2: I have a skill edge relter to the field. The 294 00:14:00,004 --> 00:14:02,244 Speaker 2: fact is that if you have, for example, if you're 295 00:14:02,284 --> 00:14:05,764 Speaker 2: able to get a fifty five forty five coin flip 296 00:14:06,044 --> 00:14:09,044 Speaker 2: so called situation, so you win fifty five percent of 297 00:14:09,084 --> 00:14:13,084 Speaker 2: your flips, that's actually very very very good. If you're 298 00:14:13,084 --> 00:14:15,764 Speaker 2: a professional gambler, a sports better who won fifty five 299 00:14:15,804 --> 00:14:19,244 Speaker 2: percent of his or her bets consistently would beat the 300 00:14:19,284 --> 00:14:22,004 Speaker 2: books and be on their way to being a very 301 00:14:22,004 --> 00:14:26,044 Speaker 2: successful person at their craft. Now, if you're playing the 302 00:14:26,044 --> 00:14:28,644 Speaker 2: main event, which will happen in seven weeks time, we'll 303 00:14:28,684 --> 00:14:31,004 Speaker 2: have more segments on it. That's the one exception that's 304 00:14:31,004 --> 00:14:33,564 Speaker 2: where you only at one entry. It's a ten thousand 305 00:14:33,604 --> 00:14:35,604 Speaker 2: dollars entry. So it's like there's not like some alternative 306 00:14:35,604 --> 00:14:37,884 Speaker 2: way to spend your time and your money that's equally good. 307 00:14:38,644 --> 00:14:41,124 Speaker 2: And the field is so soft re alter to the 308 00:14:41,164 --> 00:14:43,084 Speaker 2: buying level that I think you actually might want to 309 00:14:43,124 --> 00:14:46,084 Speaker 2: be like a little bit more risk averse on day 310 00:14:46,084 --> 00:14:50,004 Speaker 2: one and day two. But generally speaking, gambling is about 311 00:14:50,364 --> 00:14:53,724 Speaker 2: pushing small edges. Don't underestimate your opponents either, even though 312 00:14:53,724 --> 00:14:55,564 Speaker 2: there are more weak opponents at the World Series in 313 00:14:55,564 --> 00:14:58,564 Speaker 2: the most venues. So it's like, yeah, you have to 314 00:14:58,564 --> 00:15:00,724 Speaker 2: take risks to win a poker tournament. 315 00:15:01,044 --> 00:15:02,884 Speaker 1: I got, I got nothing to add to that night. 316 00:15:02,964 --> 00:15:04,764 Speaker 1: I think you have to take risk because a really 317 00:15:04,924 --> 00:15:08,204 Speaker 1: really good UH is a good summation of a something 318 00:15:08,244 --> 00:15:10,644 Speaker 1: that's super important and something that I need to learn 319 00:15:10,644 --> 00:15:14,524 Speaker 1: from because I am someone who has consistently struggled with 320 00:15:14,924 --> 00:15:18,284 Speaker 1: taking enough risks. That's counter to my personality. I'm more 321 00:15:18,284 --> 00:15:21,364 Speaker 1: of a risk averse person, and I've really really worked 322 00:15:21,364 --> 00:15:23,964 Speaker 1: hard to kind of work on that side, because you 323 00:15:24,084 --> 00:15:28,724 Speaker 1: do have to take the correct risks based on the situation, 324 00:15:28,924 --> 00:15:33,004 Speaker 1: based on the odds, based on the math and the percentages, 325 00:15:33,284 --> 00:15:35,724 Speaker 1: not based on how you're feeling, which actually goes to 326 00:15:35,844 --> 00:15:38,764 Speaker 1: my tip two. You know, going back in time since 327 00:15:38,764 --> 00:15:41,564 Speaker 1: we al recovered tip three, this is my final tip, 328 00:15:41,764 --> 00:15:44,604 Speaker 1: which is mental game and working on your mental game. 329 00:15:44,964 --> 00:15:48,204 Speaker 1: So what I mean by that is that when you're 330 00:15:48,604 --> 00:15:51,724 Speaker 1: playing poker, when you're in a decision making environment that's 331 00:15:51,764 --> 00:15:54,644 Speaker 1: extremely high stress and high pressure, and where you're going 332 00:15:54,684 --> 00:15:57,404 Speaker 1: to get tired because even if you've gotten beautiful rest 333 00:15:57,444 --> 00:16:00,284 Speaker 1: and all of this, you're playing twelve thirteen hour days. 334 00:16:00,324 --> 00:16:02,964 Speaker 1: This is a really long time to be thinking hard 335 00:16:03,004 --> 00:16:06,724 Speaker 1: and making good decisions. You're going to get cognitively depleted. 336 00:16:06,764 --> 00:16:09,564 Speaker 1: You're going to get emotional. There will be moments where 337 00:16:09,604 --> 00:16:11,964 Speaker 1: you get angry because someone pissed you off. There will 338 00:16:12,004 --> 00:16:14,324 Speaker 1: be moments when you are upset because you lost a 339 00:16:14,364 --> 00:16:17,084 Speaker 1: big hand. There's moments when you're going to be elated 340 00:16:17,124 --> 00:16:19,484 Speaker 1: because you won a big hand. And all of those 341 00:16:19,524 --> 00:16:22,884 Speaker 1: things are going to mean that you are tilting. Tilting 342 00:16:22,964 --> 00:16:27,164 Speaker 1: means putting emotion into your game instead of just doing 343 00:16:27,164 --> 00:16:32,564 Speaker 1: the logical rational decision. And my advice to you is 344 00:16:33,204 --> 00:16:36,604 Speaker 1: to sit down and figure out, okay, what makes you tilt, 345 00:16:36,684 --> 00:16:39,844 Speaker 1: how do you tilt, and then to respond accordingly in 346 00:16:39,884 --> 00:16:43,124 Speaker 1: the moment. I always say it's better to take a break, 347 00:16:43,404 --> 00:16:46,004 Speaker 1: to actually physically get up from the table, take a lap. 348 00:16:46,044 --> 00:16:47,724 Speaker 1: You might miss a hand, but you're not going to 349 00:16:47,724 --> 00:16:50,284 Speaker 1: misplay that hand right, and it will help you cool off. 350 00:16:50,324 --> 00:16:53,084 Speaker 1: It will help you actually physically remove yourself from that situation. 351 00:16:53,404 --> 00:16:56,044 Speaker 1: Whatever you need to do to detilt, be aware of 352 00:16:56,084 --> 00:16:58,364 Speaker 1: it and do it, and there's no shame in it. 353 00:16:58,724 --> 00:17:02,404 Speaker 1: Everyone tilts. And this is something that distinguishes the truly 354 00:17:02,404 --> 00:17:04,724 Speaker 1: great players from the ones who are just mathematically very 355 00:17:04,764 --> 00:17:08,004 Speaker 1: good is their mental game, their ability to thrive under pressure. 356 00:17:08,284 --> 00:17:10,524 Speaker 1: So that's my final tip, and I think it's a 357 00:17:10,644 --> 00:17:11,524 Speaker 1: very important one. 358 00:17:12,084 --> 00:17:13,644 Speaker 3: Maria, we're in the lightning around here. I need one 359 00:17:13,644 --> 00:17:15,764 Speaker 3: more number. Roll at Roulett Wheel. Let's let's hope for 360 00:17:15,804 --> 00:17:16,364 Speaker 3: a good one. 361 00:17:16,564 --> 00:17:20,164 Speaker 1: All right, let's do number five. 362 00:17:21,884 --> 00:17:24,964 Speaker 2: It's okay, I'll spin this into something better than it is. 363 00:17:25,244 --> 00:17:28,204 Speaker 2: I'm bluffing a little bit here. It's poker after five 364 00:17:28,324 --> 00:17:30,644 Speaker 2: is as we are both doing, stay within walking distance 365 00:17:30,764 --> 00:17:33,204 Speaker 2: of the World Series of Poker. The broader lesson here 366 00:17:33,244 --> 00:17:36,004 Speaker 2: is that you really want to minimize distractions. 367 00:17:36,444 --> 00:17:39,044 Speaker 3: You do not want to have the worry. 368 00:17:38,764 --> 00:17:41,244 Speaker 2: About fighting through traffic or finding a parking space. The 369 00:17:41,244 --> 00:17:43,524 Speaker 2: hotels are actually quite nice here, as is Maria's apartment 370 00:17:43,724 --> 00:17:47,724 Speaker 2: by the way. But like once you get in deep 371 00:17:47,724 --> 00:17:50,324 Speaker 2: in an event, right, you were on the clock for 372 00:17:50,444 --> 00:17:53,764 Speaker 2: twelve hours a day. Let's say that you want to 373 00:17:53,804 --> 00:17:57,244 Speaker 2: sleep seven hours. Let's say you want to eat something 374 00:17:57,444 --> 00:17:59,044 Speaker 2: in the morning. Let's say you want to work out. 375 00:17:59,124 --> 00:18:00,524 Speaker 2: Let's say you want to have a little bit of 376 00:18:00,804 --> 00:18:03,964 Speaker 2: study time right. You know, let's say you need an 377 00:18:04,004 --> 00:18:05,724 Speaker 2: hour to wind round and have a drink at you 378 00:18:05,844 --> 00:18:08,124 Speaker 2: in the evening, which you often do if if you've 379 00:18:08,164 --> 00:18:09,924 Speaker 2: had a long day, right all the sudden, you have 380 00:18:09,964 --> 00:18:13,444 Speaker 2: committed like twenty four twenty five hours already, so the 381 00:18:13,524 --> 00:18:16,684 Speaker 2: last thing you want to do is have to worry 382 00:18:16,684 --> 00:18:18,444 Speaker 2: about like a long commute to the cute air and 383 00:18:18,484 --> 00:18:20,884 Speaker 2: b you bought forty minutes out of town where you 384 00:18:20,924 --> 00:18:23,084 Speaker 2: can't find any grocery store it's open later, or anything 385 00:18:23,124 --> 00:18:25,684 Speaker 2: like that. I've even had things where if I made 386 00:18:25,724 --> 00:18:27,764 Speaker 2: like day three of an event, I got a different 387 00:18:27,764 --> 00:18:30,844 Speaker 2: hotel room closer to that venue, because at that point, 388 00:18:31,124 --> 00:18:33,404 Speaker 2: even like an extra hour of sleep is worth an 389 00:18:33,404 --> 00:18:33,884 Speaker 2: awful lot. 390 00:18:34,844 --> 00:18:35,124 Speaker 4: Great. 391 00:18:36,004 --> 00:18:38,724 Speaker 1: Well, Nate, I hope that you are staying close to 392 00:18:38,764 --> 00:18:42,364 Speaker 1: the hotel this time, and I am so excited to 393 00:18:42,484 --> 00:18:44,844 Speaker 1: see you in a few hours and play our first 394 00:18:44,884 --> 00:18:46,924 Speaker 1: event together during this world series. 395 00:18:47,964 --> 00:18:50,684 Speaker 3: I'm already registered, Maria, so I did so much. 396 00:18:50,764 --> 00:18:54,844 Speaker 4: Okay, let's do it, so. 397 00:19:03,324 --> 00:19:03,644 Speaker 3: Maria. 398 00:19:03,804 --> 00:19:07,164 Speaker 2: Last Thursday, the twenty third, the SEC approved an ETF 399 00:19:07,164 --> 00:19:12,044 Speaker 2: application for Ethereum. We have a variety of listeners who 400 00:19:12,124 --> 00:19:15,924 Speaker 2: are ranged from I'm sure very crypto knowledgeable to thinking 401 00:19:15,924 --> 00:19:17,364 Speaker 2: this is all Greek to them. Can you kind of 402 00:19:17,404 --> 00:19:20,884 Speaker 2: explain down the middle pathway or our media and listener 403 00:19:21,244 --> 00:19:22,964 Speaker 2: what happened and why this is significant. 404 00:19:23,364 --> 00:19:23,604 Speaker 4: Yeah. 405 00:19:23,644 --> 00:19:28,324 Speaker 1: Absolutely, So. First of all, an ETF is an exchange 406 00:19:28,324 --> 00:19:32,084 Speaker 1: traded fund, so that means that it's a fund where 407 00:19:32,124 --> 00:19:35,244 Speaker 1: you pool securities and then you can trade that pool 408 00:19:35,284 --> 00:19:38,764 Speaker 1: of securities like stocks, and so what this means is 409 00:19:38,804 --> 00:19:42,524 Speaker 1: that you know, people can participate in that broad pool 410 00:19:42,524 --> 00:19:45,444 Speaker 1: of stocks without actually having to pick every single one themselves. 411 00:19:45,524 --> 00:19:47,204 Speaker 1: So it's a huge it's a big deal in the 412 00:19:47,244 --> 00:19:52,324 Speaker 1: financial markets. Last year there started to be rumblings that 413 00:19:52,404 --> 00:19:57,044 Speaker 1: Bitcoin and Ether, which are kind of the two biggest cryptocurrencies, 414 00:19:57,204 --> 00:20:00,724 Speaker 1: we're going to get ETFs of their own, and that 415 00:20:00,844 --> 00:20:04,524 Speaker 1: ended up happening this past January with Bitcoin, So that 416 00:20:04,644 --> 00:20:08,284 Speaker 1: was the first ETF that was actually approved in the 417 00:20:08,324 --> 00:20:13,524 Speaker 1: crypto space, which was absolutely just huge, huge news because suddenly, 418 00:20:13,884 --> 00:20:17,484 Speaker 1: you know, mom and pop, Joe next door, people who 419 00:20:17,804 --> 00:20:20,204 Speaker 1: don't really know much about crypto might have been a 420 00:20:20,244 --> 00:20:23,204 Speaker 1: little too risk averse to kind of trade bitcoin or 421 00:20:23,244 --> 00:20:27,204 Speaker 1: buy bitcoin directly. Now in their retirement accounts and all 422 00:20:27,204 --> 00:20:30,044 Speaker 1: of these different things in their investments, they can actually 423 00:20:30,164 --> 00:20:32,524 Speaker 1: just get the ETF and they can feel like they're 424 00:20:32,564 --> 00:20:37,724 Speaker 1: participating in this cryptocurrency, in this movement by buying it. 425 00:20:38,124 --> 00:20:40,484 Speaker 1: And so then everyone was really excited and was like, oh, wow, 426 00:20:40,484 --> 00:20:44,124 Speaker 1: are you going to approve ETH? And it seemed like 427 00:20:44,124 --> 00:20:46,004 Speaker 1: the answer was going to be no. And it seemed 428 00:20:46,004 --> 00:20:47,644 Speaker 1: like the answer was going to be no for a 429 00:20:47,724 --> 00:20:50,284 Speaker 1: number of reasons, not least of all because the Democrats, 430 00:20:50,644 --> 00:20:54,564 Speaker 1: especially after what happened with Sam Bank, Womin Freed, and 431 00:20:54,604 --> 00:20:58,284 Speaker 1: that whole fiasco, have been very kind of crypto skeptical 432 00:20:58,764 --> 00:21:02,204 Speaker 1: and have really shied away from entering that world. In 433 00:21:02,244 --> 00:21:06,444 Speaker 1: the SEC has not been very friendly to the crypto space. 434 00:21:06,844 --> 00:21:10,284 Speaker 1: So people thought that the chances of approval for ETH 435 00:21:11,084 --> 00:21:16,164 Speaker 1: we're going to be incredibly low, and then last week 436 00:21:16,804 --> 00:21:21,604 Speaker 1: that changed. On Thursday, the approval actually went through. We 437 00:21:21,644 --> 00:21:25,324 Speaker 1: went from basically, this ain't happening to holy shit, it 438 00:21:25,484 --> 00:21:28,444 Speaker 1: just happened in four days. And so maybe we just 439 00:21:28,924 --> 00:21:32,524 Speaker 1: jump ahead and talk a little bit about the significance 440 00:21:32,564 --> 00:21:37,924 Speaker 1: of the approval in broader political context, because obviously, you know, 441 00:21:38,164 --> 00:21:40,764 Speaker 1: I'll just kind of nod to the fact that there's 442 00:21:40,844 --> 00:21:45,044 Speaker 1: obviously financial it's very important for the financial markets, and 443 00:21:45,084 --> 00:21:48,564 Speaker 1: we've talked about that, but now I think the crucial 444 00:21:48,644 --> 00:21:51,884 Speaker 1: question is why now, right, why did we go from 445 00:21:52,084 --> 00:21:55,244 Speaker 1: twenty five percent to seventy five percent to boom where 446 00:21:55,284 --> 00:21:58,244 Speaker 1: people who really know this area were like, it's never happening, 447 00:21:58,284 --> 00:22:00,684 Speaker 1: it ain't happening. Then we're like, holy shit, you know 448 00:22:00,844 --> 00:22:03,724 Speaker 1: it happened. And I think that a lot of that 449 00:22:03,924 --> 00:22:07,164 Speaker 1: does boil down to politics and nate to the points 450 00:22:07,204 --> 00:22:10,324 Speaker 1: that you were making. Who is the audience of crypto, 451 00:22:10,764 --> 00:22:13,324 Speaker 1: who are they voting for? And how do they see 452 00:22:13,364 --> 00:22:17,324 Speaker 1: you if you oppose crypto currencies because a lot of 453 00:22:17,324 --> 00:22:20,644 Speaker 1: people in crypto are what's called single issue voters. Right, 454 00:22:20,804 --> 00:22:22,884 Speaker 1: if you're pro crypto, they're going to vote for you. 455 00:22:23,164 --> 00:22:25,564 Speaker 1: If you're seen as anti crypto, they ain't going to 456 00:22:25,764 --> 00:22:27,844 Speaker 1: vote for you. And this is true of the president, 457 00:22:27,884 --> 00:22:30,124 Speaker 1: it's true of senators, it's true of Republicans. 458 00:22:30,204 --> 00:22:33,044 Speaker 2: Yeah, we look, Another factor is timing. We're now a 459 00:22:33,084 --> 00:22:38,204 Speaker 2: year and a half removed from FTX blowing up. Whether 460 00:22:38,244 --> 00:22:41,804 Speaker 2: you blame crypto per se for Sam Mekmin free, it's 461 00:22:41,844 --> 00:22:45,004 Speaker 2: a longer discussion I think we have time for right now. 462 00:22:46,284 --> 00:22:48,844 Speaker 2: But look, if Silicon Valley thinks they can make money 463 00:22:48,844 --> 00:22:50,844 Speaker 2: off this and Wall Street things, they could make money 464 00:22:50,844 --> 00:22:54,924 Speaker 2: off this, and the people who care more about crypto 465 00:22:55,044 --> 00:22:58,244 Speaker 2: might be swing voters, gettable votes war and the people 466 00:22:58,244 --> 00:23:02,404 Speaker 2: who are moralistic about it or whatnot. Then you know, look, 467 00:23:02,404 --> 00:23:05,604 Speaker 2: in the end, we actually are a pretty risk taking country, 468 00:23:05,644 --> 00:23:08,764 Speaker 2: the United States, And it's hard to bottle that up, 469 00:23:10,004 --> 00:23:12,204 Speaker 2: especially if both parties kind of sense that this is 470 00:23:12,244 --> 00:23:17,204 Speaker 2: some emerging group of voters. I mean, it's still relatively small, right, 471 00:23:17,244 --> 00:23:19,484 Speaker 2: I don't want to exaggerate. I mean, if you made 472 00:23:19,564 --> 00:23:22,724 Speaker 2: a list of the twenty most important issues in the election, 473 00:23:22,764 --> 00:23:25,684 Speaker 2: crypto might be somewhere between seventeen and like not on 474 00:23:25,724 --> 00:23:29,124 Speaker 2: the list, Right, let's not exaggerate too much. But as 475 00:23:29,124 --> 00:23:33,484 Speaker 2: you're fighting for scarce real estate, these disaffected younger voters 476 00:23:34,244 --> 00:23:37,764 Speaker 2: who are not super into like watching cable news or 477 00:23:37,804 --> 00:23:41,564 Speaker 2: things like that, are actually voters who may be gettable 478 00:23:41,604 --> 00:23:44,324 Speaker 2: for either campaign. And so so I can see why 479 00:23:44,364 --> 00:23:46,804 Speaker 2: they're trying to think about that square on the chessboard 480 00:23:46,804 --> 00:23:47,364 Speaker 2: a little bit. 481 00:23:47,604 --> 00:23:50,644 Speaker 1: So, Nate, we were talking earlier today about poker and 482 00:23:50,684 --> 00:23:53,444 Speaker 1: about the importance of small edges and that you you know, 483 00:23:53,484 --> 00:23:55,124 Speaker 1: if you're a gambler, if you're a risk taker, if 484 00:23:55,124 --> 00:23:57,524 Speaker 1: you're any sort of decision maker. If you have an edge, 485 00:23:57,724 --> 00:23:59,404 Speaker 1: even if it's, you know, a two percent edge, you 486 00:23:59,444 --> 00:24:01,364 Speaker 1: need to take that edge right because over time that's 487 00:24:01,404 --> 00:24:03,764 Speaker 1: actually going to be important. I think that that's a 488 00:24:03,884 --> 00:24:08,124 Speaker 1: really crucial point when we're talking about something like crypto here, 489 00:24:08,244 --> 00:24:10,644 Speaker 1: because as we've already talked about, I think every single 490 00:24:10,684 --> 00:24:14,644 Speaker 1: week of the Risky Business podcast, this is going to 491 00:24:14,684 --> 00:24:17,124 Speaker 1: be a close election no matter what. Right, the two 492 00:24:17,164 --> 00:24:20,404 Speaker 1: candidates right now, Trump and Biden are neck and neck, 493 00:24:21,044 --> 00:24:25,644 Speaker 1: and these small percentages might end up mattering, especially in 494 00:24:25,684 --> 00:24:29,484 Speaker 1: swing states. And so if we look at the crypto 495 00:24:29,684 --> 00:24:32,844 Speaker 1: voting block and we say, okay, you know, there are 496 00:24:33,004 --> 00:24:35,084 Speaker 1: a lot of people who are voting for whom this 497 00:24:35,204 --> 00:24:39,124 Speaker 1: is very important, and it seems like if we're anti crypto, 498 00:24:39,244 --> 00:24:42,084 Speaker 1: we might lose some votes but not gain any votes. 499 00:24:42,284 --> 00:24:44,884 Speaker 1: But if we're pro crypto, we're probably not going to 500 00:24:44,924 --> 00:24:47,684 Speaker 1: lose any votes because you know, people don't care enough, 501 00:24:47,724 --> 00:24:50,164 Speaker 1: but we might gain votes from that. You know, younger 502 00:24:52,044 --> 00:24:56,004 Speaker 1: swath of the population that does that does actually care 503 00:24:56,044 --> 00:24:59,004 Speaker 1: about that, And that's a that's an important calculus one 504 00:24:59,044 --> 00:24:59,844 Speaker 1: you're a politician. 505 00:25:00,764 --> 00:25:04,204 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, Trump also has demonstrated a willingness to go 506 00:25:04,284 --> 00:25:08,684 Speaker 2: and ask for anybody's vote. He was in the Bronx 507 00:25:09,444 --> 00:25:11,244 Speaker 2: the other day New York is not a swing state, 508 00:25:11,284 --> 00:25:15,604 Speaker 2: but trying to signal his support for young African American men, 509 00:25:16,084 --> 00:25:17,924 Speaker 2: which his group. He has gained among in the polls, 510 00:25:17,964 --> 00:25:21,364 Speaker 2: way behind, but better than he had been in previous years. 511 00:25:21,724 --> 00:25:25,364 Speaker 2: He was at the Libertarian nominating convention over the weekend, 512 00:25:25,364 --> 00:25:30,204 Speaker 2: where he was booed, but did pledge to nominate a 513 00:25:30,204 --> 00:25:32,524 Speaker 2: Libertarian to his cabinet, which is kind of an actual 514 00:25:32,964 --> 00:25:35,204 Speaker 2: and actual thing, right, if you'd like a libertarian Treasury 515 00:25:35,204 --> 00:25:39,284 Speaker 2: Secretary of something that's like actually pretty significant. But Trump, 516 00:25:39,404 --> 00:25:43,684 Speaker 2: as a real estate developer, has always understood that an 517 00:25:43,764 --> 00:25:47,804 Speaker 2: underdeveloped parcel of real estate is worth taking. That's often 518 00:25:47,844 --> 00:25:51,804 Speaker 2: a plus ROI plus EV investment. Right, Here's this like 519 00:25:51,804 --> 00:25:55,564 Speaker 2: blended piece of real estate where actually the fundamentals aren't 520 00:25:55,604 --> 00:25:58,244 Speaker 2: so bad and maybe you can fix it up and 521 00:25:58,404 --> 00:25:59,724 Speaker 2: make a profit on it. And I'm not going to 522 00:25:59,764 --> 00:26:02,884 Speaker 2: comment on domin Donald Trump's like real estate portfolio management 523 00:26:02,924 --> 00:26:07,204 Speaker 2: skills necessarily, but that instinct, I think is actually one 524 00:26:07,204 --> 00:26:08,524 Speaker 2: of the things I think I would give the most 525 00:26:08,524 --> 00:26:11,564 Speaker 2: compliments on as a politician that Trump like understood the 526 00:26:11,604 --> 00:26:15,804 Speaker 2: landscape was changing in twenty sixteen, the traditional GOP coalition 527 00:26:15,924 --> 00:26:19,484 Speaker 2: was losing. He would build a new coalition. And you 528 00:26:19,524 --> 00:26:23,244 Speaker 2: know why isn't Biden also speaking at the Libertarian conference 529 00:26:23,284 --> 00:26:25,884 Speaker 2: and saying because none of these candidates, including by the way, 530 00:26:25,964 --> 00:26:29,044 Speaker 2: RFK Junior, who at some point had a flirtation with libertarians, 531 00:26:29,164 --> 00:26:31,844 Speaker 2: none of these candids are good for libertarians, like whatsoever? Right, 532 00:26:31,884 --> 00:26:34,244 Speaker 2: but like, but Biden should say, look, we're better on 533 00:26:35,004 --> 00:26:37,564 Speaker 2: reproductive rights. Right, We're better on freedom of the press, 534 00:26:37,604 --> 00:26:40,524 Speaker 2: and make some people about free speech. And Biden seems 535 00:26:40,524 --> 00:26:43,484 Speaker 2: a little bit risk averse to try to reach out 536 00:26:43,564 --> 00:26:45,484 Speaker 2: to new groups. Maybe he's afraid of getting booed. And 537 00:26:45,484 --> 00:26:47,484 Speaker 2: I'm not sure if Trump one of the news clips 538 00:26:47,484 --> 00:26:50,764 Speaker 2: from the weekend, but he is trying to go after 539 00:26:50,804 --> 00:26:52,644 Speaker 2: that one in one hundred or one and even one 540 00:26:52,684 --> 00:26:54,884 Speaker 2: thousand voter that could make a difference if the elections 541 00:26:54,884 --> 00:26:57,124 Speaker 2: have been as close as they were in the past 542 00:26:57,124 --> 00:26:57,764 Speaker 2: two cycles. 543 00:26:58,324 --> 00:27:01,404 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that this is a very positive 544 00:27:01,404 --> 00:27:05,044 Speaker 1: development actually for the for the Biden campaign because it 545 00:27:05,084 --> 00:27:07,244 Speaker 1: does even even though he is more risk averse, I 546 00:27:07,284 --> 00:27:10,244 Speaker 1: think that this does signal that they are paying attention 547 00:27:10,324 --> 00:27:12,764 Speaker 1: and they are starting to do kind of what needs 548 00:27:12,804 --> 00:27:15,284 Speaker 1: to be done to get those votes that they need 549 00:27:15,324 --> 00:27:18,804 Speaker 1: to get. And so, Nate, you know, we were talking earlier, 550 00:27:18,844 --> 00:27:21,804 Speaker 1: this earlier about what we were going to talk about today, 551 00:27:22,004 --> 00:27:24,764 Speaker 1: and you said, you know, let's not do a politics segment. 552 00:27:24,804 --> 00:27:28,084 Speaker 1: So I said, let's do a cryptocurrency segment. And it 553 00:27:28,124 --> 00:27:30,564 Speaker 1: turns out that in an election year, you know, everything 554 00:27:30,604 --> 00:27:33,324 Speaker 1: becomes a politics segment to a certain extent, because I 555 00:27:33,364 --> 00:27:35,284 Speaker 1: do not think we would be talking about this. I 556 00:27:35,324 --> 00:27:37,884 Speaker 1: do not think the e ETF would have been approved 557 00:27:38,164 --> 00:27:40,404 Speaker 1: if we were not in an election year, and if 558 00:27:40,404 --> 00:27:44,004 Speaker 1: that didn't kind of light the fire under politicians under 559 00:27:44,044 --> 00:27:48,084 Speaker 1: Biden to actually do things that might be distasteful to 560 00:27:48,204 --> 00:27:50,684 Speaker 1: them on some level, might be more of a risk 561 00:27:50,724 --> 00:27:52,924 Speaker 1: than they would otherwise want to take, but that they 562 00:27:52,924 --> 00:27:55,764 Speaker 1: are now willing to take because it's an election. So Nate, 563 00:27:56,164 --> 00:28:10,964 Speaker 1: everything is about the election. So Nate, as as we 564 00:28:11,004 --> 00:28:13,084 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, we're both in Las Vegas, and I think 565 00:28:13,124 --> 00:28:16,644 Speaker 1: we both feel incredibly lucky to be here because our 566 00:28:16,964 --> 00:28:21,004 Speaker 1: flight experiences this Memorial Day weekend were anything but smooth. 567 00:28:21,284 --> 00:28:24,284 Speaker 1: So I, for one, found myself sitting in LaGuardia Airport 568 00:28:25,124 --> 00:28:26,924 Speaker 1: and getting an alert that my flight was going to 569 00:28:26,964 --> 00:28:29,924 Speaker 1: be you know, delayed first by an hour, then two hours, 570 00:28:30,444 --> 00:28:33,084 Speaker 1: then two and a half hours, and finally two hours 571 00:28:33,164 --> 00:28:37,444 Speaker 1: and fifty five minutes. And at that point we started, 572 00:28:38,084 --> 00:28:40,044 Speaker 1: you know, we started boarding, and it ended up being 573 00:28:40,044 --> 00:28:43,604 Speaker 1: delayed by three and a half hours, but by that 574 00:28:43,724 --> 00:28:46,564 Speaker 1: point everyone was on the plane and it was just 575 00:28:46,644 --> 00:28:50,084 Speaker 1: it was just a nightmare and not something that I 576 00:28:50,164 --> 00:28:53,404 Speaker 1: was very happy with. So I'm happy to have made 577 00:28:53,444 --> 00:28:55,964 Speaker 1: it here, but I know that you have had a 578 00:28:56,044 --> 00:28:58,724 Speaker 1: less than stellar flight experience as well. And I think 579 00:28:58,804 --> 00:29:02,524 Speaker 1: also you know, the fact that our final official delay 580 00:29:02,604 --> 00:29:04,924 Speaker 1: was two hours and fifty five minutes before it was 581 00:29:05,244 --> 00:29:08,764 Speaker 1: pushed while everyone was on the plane also has some significance. 582 00:29:10,044 --> 00:29:13,684 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was flying from Westchester County Airport HPN. I 583 00:29:13,684 --> 00:29:16,644 Speaker 2: think it is the call sign, and you can't fly 584 00:29:16,764 --> 00:29:19,724 Speaker 2: direct to Vegas from there, but you can connect either 585 00:29:19,804 --> 00:29:22,804 Speaker 2: choice of Atlanta or Detroit. Thing from Michigan. I chose 586 00:29:22,844 --> 00:29:25,524 Speaker 2: Detroit had a much longer connection time. I don't trust 587 00:29:25,524 --> 00:29:27,644 Speaker 2: thirty nine minutes in Atlanta, and I got that American 588 00:29:27,644 --> 00:29:29,644 Speaker 2: Express car where you get sky lounge. Jackson, I'm like, 589 00:29:29,884 --> 00:29:31,844 Speaker 2: you know, so we're circling in and like it's starting 590 00:29:31,844 --> 00:29:34,004 Speaker 2: to take a while I'm like, weren't we supposed to 591 00:29:34,004 --> 00:29:36,844 Speaker 2: have landed half an hour ago? Maybe I'm just like 592 00:29:36,964 --> 00:29:40,444 Speaker 2: kind of misremembering things. Right, We keep circling, and then 593 00:29:40,484 --> 00:29:44,324 Speaker 2: we get the pilot comes on right and he's like, well, folks, 594 00:29:44,364 --> 00:29:46,804 Speaker 2: I mean, like you know from the tona's voice, it's 595 00:29:46,804 --> 00:29:48,484 Speaker 2: going to be a really bad well folks. 596 00:29:48,564 --> 00:29:50,124 Speaker 3: Right, He's like, we're running. 597 00:29:51,644 --> 00:29:52,964 Speaker 2: We're running out a few we have to land in 598 00:29:53,044 --> 00:29:55,644 Speaker 2: fucking He didn't say fucking, we have to land in Buffalo. 599 00:29:56,044 --> 00:29:58,044 Speaker 2: So we're going back where we thought we were in Detroit, 600 00:29:58,404 --> 00:29:59,284 Speaker 2: and this is really bad. 601 00:29:59,324 --> 00:30:00,484 Speaker 3: I had things where I had to be. 602 00:30:00,444 --> 00:30:05,164 Speaker 2: Like on the ground somewhere business calls, online poker, stupid crap. 603 00:30:05,404 --> 00:30:06,804 Speaker 3: I had to be like on the ground on Monday. 604 00:30:06,804 --> 00:30:07,884 Speaker 3: I couldn't be flying on Monday. 605 00:30:07,884 --> 00:30:11,124 Speaker 2: Basically, I could have really scrambled the whole trip, maybe 606 00:30:11,124 --> 00:30:14,604 Speaker 2: including this podcast potentially on the ground. 607 00:30:14,644 --> 00:30:17,764 Speaker 3: There's kind of like you know, Lord of the Fly 608 00:30:17,924 --> 00:30:18,644 Speaker 3: or not really. 609 00:30:18,444 --> 00:30:21,644 Speaker 2: It's actually the pilot basically came and said we can 610 00:30:21,724 --> 00:30:23,644 Speaker 2: be plane ba if we be playing. There's a lot 611 00:30:23,684 --> 00:30:28,124 Speaker 2: more paperwork, and so let's take a vote basically, and 612 00:30:28,124 --> 00:30:30,244 Speaker 2: people are like, yeah, let's stay on, except for one guy. 613 00:30:30,564 --> 00:30:32,044 Speaker 3: They had to warner them. They have to tell them. 614 00:30:32,244 --> 00:30:33,884 Speaker 2: We want you to know, sir, you may have to 615 00:30:33,884 --> 00:30:36,444 Speaker 2: be in Buffalo, New York for up to twenty four hours. 616 00:30:36,644 --> 00:30:39,284 Speaker 2: You know, here's a liability waiver in case something happens 617 00:30:39,284 --> 00:30:42,404 Speaker 2: to you. We do make it back to Detroit, and then, 618 00:30:43,604 --> 00:30:46,004 Speaker 2: because the whole rest of the flights have also been 619 00:30:46,044 --> 00:30:49,804 Speaker 2: scrambled by this midwestern thunderstorm, my original flight is also 620 00:30:49,844 --> 00:30:50,444 Speaker 2: three hours late. 621 00:30:50,524 --> 00:30:52,404 Speaker 3: So I get into Vegas at like one point thirty 622 00:30:52,444 --> 00:30:53,084 Speaker 3: in the morning. 623 00:30:54,244 --> 00:30:58,484 Speaker 2: So all, well, that ends well, I suppose, But apropos 624 00:30:58,524 --> 00:31:01,724 Speaker 2: of this, there are some new government regulations that would 625 00:31:01,724 --> 00:31:04,444 Speaker 2: have covered I think, both of our situations. 626 00:31:04,444 --> 00:31:07,044 Speaker 3: So this is was released last week by. 627 00:31:06,924 --> 00:31:11,284 Speaker 2: The federal By Mayor Pete, our Department of Transportation issued 628 00:31:11,324 --> 00:31:14,124 Speaker 2: a whole new set of rules last week governing compensation 629 00:31:14,204 --> 00:31:17,484 Speaker 2: for passengers under a variety of circumstances. For example, a 630 00:31:17,524 --> 00:31:20,324 Speaker 2: domestic flight delayed by three plus hours or an international 631 00:31:20,324 --> 00:31:23,644 Speaker 2: flight six plus hours, if there's an extra connection like 632 00:31:23,644 --> 00:31:26,764 Speaker 2: my flight to Buffalo, or you land a different airport 633 00:31:26,764 --> 00:31:29,484 Speaker 2: because of a diversion, if your bags aren't delivered in 634 00:31:29,524 --> 00:31:33,324 Speaker 2: twelve hours. Discovers the guarantees you can get compensation in 635 00:31:33,364 --> 00:31:36,724 Speaker 2: a transparent way and with cash, not just some mileage 636 00:31:36,764 --> 00:31:38,524 Speaker 2: credit that you may or not be able to use 637 00:31:38,764 --> 00:31:41,404 Speaker 2: later on. So it's an effort to kind of streamline 638 00:31:41,844 --> 00:31:46,924 Speaker 2: and standardize punishments to airlines compensation to passengers when you 639 00:31:46,964 --> 00:31:47,244 Speaker 2: have a. 640 00:31:47,204 --> 00:31:48,724 Speaker 3: Really annoying flight delay. 641 00:31:49,084 --> 00:31:51,724 Speaker 2: So let me be a first first reaction to that, by 642 00:31:51,724 --> 00:31:55,284 Speaker 2: the way, is like part of a Biden administration series 643 00:31:55,284 --> 00:31:59,004 Speaker 2: of on junk fees or non transparent fees. 644 00:31:59,444 --> 00:32:02,444 Speaker 1: Yeah no, I mean part of me says, you know, hallelujah, good, 645 00:32:02,724 --> 00:32:06,484 Speaker 1: like we need to hold airlines accountable. But some of 646 00:32:06,524 --> 00:32:09,924 Speaker 1: these things, like I can see the argument that, Okay, 647 00:32:10,004 --> 00:32:12,364 Speaker 1: you know it might not be great for like smaller 648 00:32:12,364 --> 00:32:16,004 Speaker 1: airlines blah blah blah, but honestly, airlines haven't given a 649 00:32:16,004 --> 00:32:18,244 Speaker 1: fuck about us for so long and have tried to 650 00:32:18,324 --> 00:32:20,764 Speaker 1: kind of push their edges. You know, you have fees 651 00:32:20,764 --> 00:32:23,204 Speaker 1: for all your checked bags, you have no lug room, 652 00:32:23,484 --> 00:32:25,324 Speaker 1: like they try to just cram you on the plane. 653 00:32:25,324 --> 00:32:27,844 Speaker 1: They have terrible customer service most of the time. So 654 00:32:28,044 --> 00:32:31,764 Speaker 1: I say, like, yay, yay these rules, and like I 655 00:32:31,804 --> 00:32:34,644 Speaker 1: don't check baggage because it gets lost all the time. 656 00:32:35,004 --> 00:32:38,684 Speaker 1: Like yes, please compensate me if if I have to 657 00:32:38,764 --> 00:32:41,524 Speaker 1: check it and you lose it. Like this seems like 658 00:32:42,124 --> 00:32:44,404 Speaker 1: something on an emotional level. And I know here we're 659 00:32:44,404 --> 00:32:48,284 Speaker 1: all about rational and logical risk taking and decision making, 660 00:32:48,644 --> 00:32:51,604 Speaker 1: but this is something airline travel is something that people 661 00:32:51,684 --> 00:32:55,484 Speaker 1: react to emotionally. I'm emotional about it, and good, I'm happy. 662 00:32:55,564 --> 00:32:57,764 Speaker 1: I want the airlines to have to pay for when 663 00:32:58,004 --> 00:33:03,004 Speaker 1: they actually do this, because you know, as a as 664 00:33:03,004 --> 00:33:07,764 Speaker 1: a consumer, when big corporations try to take advantage of me, 665 00:33:07,844 --> 00:33:10,604 Speaker 1: that doesn't feel good. And so I do think that 666 00:33:11,044 --> 00:33:14,004 Speaker 1: I'm acknowledging that I'm coming from this from an incorrect 667 00:33:14,404 --> 00:33:18,044 Speaker 1: decision making framework, but the hedonic value is actually a 668 00:33:18,084 --> 00:33:20,124 Speaker 1: big part of my expected value here. 669 00:33:21,124 --> 00:33:22,284 Speaker 2: So I'm going to come in it from like an 670 00:33:22,324 --> 00:33:27,164 Speaker 2: economist standpoint where in some ways to have regulations can 671 00:33:27,244 --> 00:33:31,164 Speaker 2: actually be beneficial to the industry from a game theory standpoint, 672 00:33:31,164 --> 00:33:32,564 Speaker 2: So let me get it. Kind of give you an example, 673 00:33:32,604 --> 00:33:36,164 Speaker 2: which is if you got to like an online dating profile, right, 674 00:33:36,524 --> 00:33:39,804 Speaker 2: and you look at different men who are trying to 675 00:33:40,604 --> 00:33:43,364 Speaker 2: maybe exaggerate favorably their height or their age or other 676 00:33:43,804 --> 00:33:48,444 Speaker 2: things other features about them. Right, I love that other 677 00:33:48,564 --> 00:33:52,284 Speaker 2: features you want to with what's kind of a prisoner's dilemma, 678 00:33:52,444 --> 00:33:55,404 Speaker 2: believe it or not, where let's say everyone exaggerates their 679 00:33:55,444 --> 00:33:57,524 Speaker 2: height by two inches and you have the same incentive 680 00:33:57,564 --> 00:33:59,764 Speaker 2: to do it, unless you're may be so tall that 681 00:33:59,884 --> 00:34:02,604 Speaker 2: like six or four versus six six doesn't matter all 682 00:34:02,644 --> 00:34:04,604 Speaker 2: that much. By the way NBA players do this, maybe 683 00:34:04,604 --> 00:34:07,244 Speaker 2: an inch or so as well. But the point is 684 00:34:07,284 --> 00:34:11,044 Speaker 2: that you know, passengers know that when they book an 685 00:34:11,044 --> 00:34:14,684 Speaker 2: airline ticket or even more. It's worse with hotels, by 686 00:34:14,724 --> 00:34:16,964 Speaker 2: the way, with the resort fees where the hell they 687 00:34:16,964 --> 00:34:18,884 Speaker 2: call them. They know there are a lot of like 688 00:34:19,204 --> 00:34:21,804 Speaker 2: extra add on fees, and therefore, if you want to 689 00:34:21,884 --> 00:34:24,324 Speaker 2: like let's say we're a hotel that has like all 690 00:34:24,364 --> 00:34:26,404 Speaker 2: in pricing, there's no hidden fees, well it's still going 691 00:34:26,444 --> 00:34:29,724 Speaker 2: to appear more expensive on Expedia or whatnot. So to 692 00:34:29,764 --> 00:34:34,284 Speaker 2: have like standards that regulate what fees are included or 693 00:34:34,324 --> 00:34:36,124 Speaker 2: kind of what compensation you get if you're late might 694 00:34:36,164 --> 00:34:39,604 Speaker 2: actually be okay and lead to more transparency for consumers 695 00:34:39,644 --> 00:34:42,164 Speaker 2: in general and have less dead weight loss is the 696 00:34:42,204 --> 00:34:45,724 Speaker 2: economics term. With that said, this will be kind of 697 00:34:45,764 --> 00:34:49,324 Speaker 2: priced into the cost of a ticket if every time 698 00:34:49,364 --> 00:34:52,684 Speaker 2: you fly there's a one percent chance of a circumstance 699 00:34:52,684 --> 00:34:54,524 Speaker 2: that would cause the airline to have to pay out 700 00:34:54,884 --> 00:34:57,924 Speaker 2: a thousand dollars fine or something. Then adds ten dollars 701 00:34:57,884 --> 00:35:00,444 Speaker 2: in expected value, and therefore it's kind of like a 702 00:35:00,484 --> 00:35:01,884 Speaker 2: piece of insurance. 703 00:35:02,004 --> 00:35:03,124 Speaker 3: Bundled with the ticket. 704 00:35:03,244 --> 00:35:06,204 Speaker 2: But I look, the only critique I have other than 705 00:35:06,244 --> 00:35:08,084 Speaker 2: that's not free money, right, it will get priced in, 706 00:35:09,204 --> 00:35:14,644 Speaker 2: is could this create perverse incentives toward the airlines doing 707 00:35:14,684 --> 00:35:18,724 Speaker 2: things that are unsafe in an effort to avoid these 708 00:35:18,844 --> 00:35:19,684 Speaker 2: these large fees. 709 00:35:19,724 --> 00:35:23,204 Speaker 1: Potentially, Yeah, that's actually something that I hadn't thought about, 710 00:35:23,244 --> 00:35:26,564 Speaker 1: and that would be really problematic. I would hope that 711 00:35:26,564 --> 00:35:29,404 Speaker 1: that doesn't happen, because the first time that a plane 712 00:35:29,404 --> 00:35:33,484 Speaker 1: crashes where something goes terribly wrong because they cut a corner, 713 00:35:33,884 --> 00:35:37,084 Speaker 1: the cost of that is so incredibly high to the airline, 714 00:35:37,124 --> 00:35:39,764 Speaker 1: to the image, to the perception that I hoped that 715 00:35:39,804 --> 00:35:42,124 Speaker 1: they wouldn't do that. That said, you know, we hoped 716 00:35:42,164 --> 00:35:44,124 Speaker 1: that Boeing wouldn't do some of the things they did, 717 00:35:44,964 --> 00:35:48,844 Speaker 1: So sometimes that decision making calculus is also a little 718 00:35:48,844 --> 00:35:53,844 Speaker 1: bit different. But I'm glad that kind of the games 719 00:35:53,844 --> 00:35:58,724 Speaker 1: theory of this also aligns with my own emotional desire 720 00:35:59,444 --> 00:36:03,204 Speaker 1: to have these things not happen. One interesting thing, I 721 00:36:03,204 --> 00:36:04,764 Speaker 1: thought you were actually going to go somewhere with the 722 00:36:04,804 --> 00:36:08,404 Speaker 1: perverse incentives, you know, the two hours and fifty five minutes. 723 00:36:08,684 --> 00:36:11,604 Speaker 1: Basically like that point when you see that delay, like, 724 00:36:11,724 --> 00:36:14,164 Speaker 1: as a consumer, I should now be like, Okay, there's 725 00:36:14,164 --> 00:36:16,164 Speaker 1: no way it's two hours and fifty five minutes. This 726 00:36:16,284 --> 00:36:18,524 Speaker 1: is actually going to be delayed by more than three hours. 727 00:36:18,564 --> 00:36:20,924 Speaker 1: And they're trying to like they're trying to keep me 728 00:36:21,004 --> 00:36:23,764 Speaker 1: here so that I don't cancel and don't claim my refund. 729 00:36:24,044 --> 00:36:27,804 Speaker 2: And then it's like it's like two hours two fifty eight, right, 730 00:36:27,844 --> 00:36:31,004 Speaker 2: and they're like everyone's got to get seated now or 731 00:36:31,044 --> 00:36:33,564 Speaker 2: else we're gonna hit the three hours. Oh shit, I 732 00:36:33,564 --> 00:36:36,044 Speaker 2: have in a bathroom emergency. I have to go right now, right, 733 00:36:36,084 --> 00:36:38,804 Speaker 2: and everyone, you make everyone I play in one thousand bucks. Right, 734 00:36:39,244 --> 00:36:41,684 Speaker 2: we go into a local casino in Buffalo or whatever, 735 00:36:41,724 --> 00:36:42,844 Speaker 2: and you know, have a great time. 736 00:36:44,884 --> 00:36:46,844 Speaker 1: That's a good that's a good that's a good outcome. 737 00:36:46,884 --> 00:36:48,484 Speaker 1: Is there a local casino in Buffalo night? 738 00:36:49,204 --> 00:36:51,684 Speaker 2: I was looking this up. There was, uh, there was 739 00:36:51,764 --> 00:36:54,724 Speaker 2: casino Niagara. I was not sure whether I bought my 740 00:36:54,764 --> 00:36:57,084 Speaker 2: passport or not right, but potentially I could have wound 741 00:36:57,204 --> 00:37:00,324 Speaker 2: up in Niagara Falls, Canada playing some one two I 742 00:37:00,324 --> 00:37:01,964 Speaker 2: don't know, you know, one two limit nine. 743 00:37:01,884 --> 00:37:03,244 Speaker 3: Or the fuck they have in Niagara Falls. 744 00:37:04,044 --> 00:37:06,644 Speaker 1: So that makes me so happy. I'm so glad that 745 00:37:06,764 --> 00:37:10,604 Speaker 1: as you were being diverted to Buffalo in this horrible situation, 746 00:37:11,244 --> 00:37:15,644 Speaker 1: where your mind goes is is there a casino nearby? 747 00:37:15,924 --> 00:37:18,124 Speaker 1: We haven't really talked about this, but I think that 748 00:37:18,324 --> 00:37:21,844 Speaker 1: I affectionately think of Nate as you know, my one 749 00:37:21,884 --> 00:37:25,044 Speaker 1: of my most djeny friends, and djen is short for 750 00:37:25,084 --> 00:37:28,764 Speaker 1: a degenerate gambler, and it's a term of great affection 751 00:37:29,124 --> 00:37:31,924 Speaker 1: in this particular case. And you know, people have more 752 00:37:32,044 --> 00:37:35,924 Speaker 1: or less degen in them, which also I think has 753 00:37:35,964 --> 00:37:39,244 Speaker 1: to do with appetite for risk, and Nate you as 754 00:37:39,924 --> 00:37:42,724 Speaker 1: as the dgen that I know in love. I'm so 755 00:37:42,884 --> 00:37:45,884 Speaker 1: glad that you were looking up casinos. I would have 756 00:37:45,924 --> 00:37:47,364 Speaker 1: been looking up if I had been stuck there, I 757 00:37:47,404 --> 00:37:51,244 Speaker 1: would have been like, eater hit list, Buffalo, Is there 758 00:37:51,284 --> 00:37:53,964 Speaker 1: anywhere good to eat? Or am I going to be just. 759 00:37:53,964 --> 00:37:57,084 Speaker 2: Completely one famous Buffalo anchor bar I think it's called 760 00:37:57,284 --> 00:37:59,284 Speaker 2: And having not been to Buffalo maybe since I was 761 00:37:59,324 --> 00:38:03,884 Speaker 2: like eight or whatever, Right, anchor bar Cassino, Niagara, get 762 00:38:03,924 --> 00:38:07,324 Speaker 2: the six am earliest possible delta flight to Detroit, and 763 00:38:07,404 --> 00:38:09,644 Speaker 2: from there we have options. Once you're in Detroit, it's 764 00:38:09,844 --> 00:38:12,084 Speaker 2: you know, it's a real airport, and then the world's 765 00:38:12,084 --> 00:38:14,524 Speaker 2: your oyster. But we had a whole game plan in case, 766 00:38:14,604 --> 00:38:16,524 Speaker 2: in case the flight never left Buffalo again. 767 00:38:16,964 --> 00:38:21,524 Speaker 1: So so Nate, let's just kind of sum this up. Obviously, 768 00:38:22,044 --> 00:38:24,844 Speaker 1: nobody likes to be delayed, right, nobody. Nobody likes this, 769 00:38:24,844 --> 00:38:28,044 Speaker 1: this kind of stuff to happen. And it seems that 770 00:38:28,084 --> 00:38:32,004 Speaker 1: we agree for for even though we're coming from different angles. 771 00:38:32,004 --> 00:38:34,884 Speaker 1: I'm coming from a very emotional tilted angle and you're 772 00:38:34,924 --> 00:38:38,684 Speaker 1: coming from the correct risk taking game theoretic framework angle 773 00:38:39,004 --> 00:38:41,084 Speaker 1: that there are a lot of good things that can 774 00:38:41,084 --> 00:38:45,844 Speaker 1: come from these regulations. What does this mean just for 775 00:38:45,964 --> 00:38:48,284 Speaker 1: us as decision makers on a on a broader. 776 00:38:48,004 --> 00:38:50,724 Speaker 2: Level, Maybe it means you can be like a little 777 00:38:50,724 --> 00:38:54,084 Speaker 2: bit more risk taking with your travel plans because you 778 00:38:54,084 --> 00:38:56,204 Speaker 2: do get compensated in some way. You may get made 779 00:38:56,204 --> 00:39:00,044 Speaker 2: partially whole if if you're if you're late or at 780 00:39:00,044 --> 00:39:01,684 Speaker 2: the margin. I mean, look, I still think people are 781 00:39:01,684 --> 00:39:05,044 Speaker 2: actually much too willing to to make connecting flights. 782 00:39:05,724 --> 00:39:08,844 Speaker 3: I think paying a premium. 783 00:39:08,364 --> 00:39:09,964 Speaker 2: For direct flight is worth it now because it says 784 00:39:09,964 --> 00:39:13,404 Speaker 2: you time, but because like it's just like literally two 785 00:39:13,684 --> 00:39:16,164 Speaker 2: x less likely will have a problem getting to your 786 00:39:16,204 --> 00:39:19,884 Speaker 2: destination if you have one flight instead of two. Right, So, 787 00:39:21,044 --> 00:39:24,284 Speaker 2: but at the margin, now you can take riskier options, 788 00:39:24,324 --> 00:39:27,164 Speaker 2: I suppose if you don't mind the cash compensation in 789 00:39:27,244 --> 00:39:30,764 Speaker 2: terms of flying out of an airport that has more 790 00:39:30,764 --> 00:39:33,324 Speaker 2: delays or making a connection when you wouldn't otherwise. So 791 00:39:33,444 --> 00:39:36,244 Speaker 2: at the margin, if you're a real ev maximizer for 792 00:39:36,284 --> 00:39:38,724 Speaker 2: flight stuff, than it affects your plans a little bit. 793 00:39:39,124 --> 00:39:42,524 Speaker 1: Well. I appreciate that, Nate. But as for me personally, 794 00:39:42,804 --> 00:39:45,564 Speaker 1: if there's any chance of me ending up in Buffalo, 795 00:39:45,644 --> 00:39:47,364 Speaker 1: I think I'm going to play it safe. 796 00:39:47,604 --> 00:39:51,884 Speaker 2: I hope we have some Buffalonian listeners will who will 797 00:39:51,964 --> 00:39:54,604 Speaker 2: understand that I am pro Buffalo and Marie's anti Buffalo. 798 00:39:54,844 --> 00:39:57,364 Speaker 2: I would have enjoyed Anchor Bar, would have Enjoyedino Niagar. 799 00:39:57,924 --> 00:39:59,564 Speaker 2: If there were a Sabers game, I would have gone, 800 00:39:59,644 --> 00:40:02,084 Speaker 2: I'm sure, so I'm you know, Bill's game would be thrilled. 801 00:40:02,484 --> 00:40:04,164 Speaker 3: So I'm pro Buffalo, all right. 802 00:40:04,204 --> 00:40:06,764 Speaker 1: But we don't have to be in Buffalo. Right now, 803 00:40:07,004 --> 00:40:10,164 Speaker 1: we're in Las Vegas and we we have to end 804 00:40:10,284 --> 00:40:13,244 Speaker 1: this podcast here because we are both running out to 805 00:40:13,364 --> 00:40:15,644 Speaker 1: play our first event for which we're both registered, and 806 00:40:15,684 --> 00:40:16,484 Speaker 1: we're so excited. 807 00:40:16,844 --> 00:40:18,324 Speaker 3: In fact, we're going to Paris. 808 00:40:19,044 --> 00:40:22,084 Speaker 2: But the Paris Las Vegas Awesome Hotel is just you know, 809 00:40:23,724 --> 00:40:24,404 Speaker 2: to play. 810 00:40:24,164 --> 00:40:26,324 Speaker 3: In the at number one of the two thousand and 811 00:40:26,924 --> 00:40:29,724 Speaker 3: twenty four Worlds. Heis at poker, absolutely night, Let's do it. 812 00:40:29,764 --> 00:40:31,324 Speaker 1: I will see you there and I will see you 813 00:40:31,364 --> 00:40:33,884 Speaker 1: at dinner where we will both have heaps and heaps 814 00:40:33,884 --> 00:40:34,684 Speaker 1: and heaps of chips. 815 00:40:35,444 --> 00:40:36,324 Speaker 3: Talk to you, s Maria. 816 00:40:41,364 --> 00:40:44,444 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova and me 817 00:40:44,804 --> 00:40:47,604 Speaker 1: Nate Silver. The show is a co production of Pushkin 818 00:40:47,684 --> 00:40:51,964 Speaker 1: Industries in iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. 819 00:40:52,444 --> 00:40:56,324 Speaker 1: Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer 820 00:40:56,404 --> 00:40:57,324 Speaker 1: is Jacob Goldstein. 821 00:40:57,564 --> 00:40:59,644 Speaker 3: If you like the show, please rate and review us 822 00:40:59,644 --> 00:41:00,444 Speaker 3: so other people can. 823 00:41:00,364 --> 00:41:02,364 Speaker 2: Find us more easily. And if you want to listen 824 00:41:02,404 --> 00:41:05,124 Speaker 2: to an AD free version, sena for Pushkin Plus. For 825 00:41:05,164 --> 00:41:06,924 Speaker 2: six hundred nine a month you get access to ad 826 00:41:06,924 --> 00:41:08,764 Speaker 2: free listening. Thanks for tuning in 827 00:41:11,724 --> 00:41:16,404 Speaker 4: Spike at all by way,