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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p

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Speaker 1: Joe Pizapia and it's time to place your bets with me.

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Speaker 1: As always for the Week thirteen look ahead is Pat

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Speaker 1: fitz Morris and Matthew Friedman. We're going to jump all

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Speaker 1: the way to week thirteen already. Yes, we'll talk Monday

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Speaker 1: Night football as well. But it was a festival of

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Speaker 1: football this past week. We had three games on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: we had pie, we had lots of food, desserts, family,

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Speaker 1: lots of time, but more football than anything else, it

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Speaker 1: feels like at the end of the day, and certainly

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Speaker 1: a lot of things to take away and put them

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Speaker 1: into our brains looking ahead to week thirteen and see

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Speaker 1: if we can make some money early on. Certainly a

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Speaker 1: lot of changes, a lot of variants too, things going

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Speaker 1: on to the quarterback position, a lot to break down

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Speaker 1: today before we get after that. I want to remind

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Speaker 1: everybody too that bet MGM is our sponsor, the King

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Speaker 1: of Sports Books, so I'll make sure you go ahead

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Speaker 1: and download that bet MGM app right today and start

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Speaker 1: making your wagers. Gentlemen, Let's start here first at the

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Speaker 1: top with Monday Night Football. We got one more game

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Speaker 1: before we closed the book completely. On Week twelve, the

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts at four six and one taking on the

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are two and a half point

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Speaker 1: underdogs on the road to the Colts. Thirty nine and

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Speaker 1: a half is the number. If you like Pittsburgh for

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Speaker 1: the upset, you get plus one twenty on the money line.

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Speaker 1: Pat Fitzmorris, I hope that you have shaken off all

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Speaker 1: the turkey excess and you are ready to go here

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Speaker 1: on a Monday morning early on. Tell me this is

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh have a shot in this game, and if so,

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Speaker 1: is the money line the best thing to do here.

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh does have a shot in this game, Joe. But

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Speaker 2: I am going to try to exercise willpower and force

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Speaker 2: myself to stay off my sportsbook apps all day and

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Speaker 2: not touch this game because I do not want to

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Speaker 2: bet it. Like I hate playing the Colts. They've just

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Speaker 2: been like all over the map for me this year.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I guess I have slightly more faith in

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Speaker 2: the Steelers here than I do in the Colts. And

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Speaker 2: you know, I'd still be inclined to bet the over

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Speaker 2: if I were going to bet at which again I

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Speaker 2: really don't want to, mainly due to the injuries on

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Speaker 2: the Colts defensive front, Evan still without Shaq Leonard Quitty

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Speaker 2: Pai didn't play this last week.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if he's going to.

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Speaker 2: Be back, so yeah, but mostly a stay away from.

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Speaker 1: Me, Matthew Friedman. I don't know what sort of discipline

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Speaker 1: you've got left after eating all that pie this week.

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Speaker 1: I saw that third slice in your plate. I saw

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Speaker 1: it there, so I know where your willpower is at.

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Speaker 1: But do you have the willpower to stay away from

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Speaker 1: this contest as well? Or are you already looking at

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Speaker 1: how you can make some cash off the Monday night

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Speaker 1: football game.

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Speaker 4: I think it's long established that I have very little willpower.

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Speaker 4: I bet this game early, which I immediately regretted. I

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Speaker 4: am on officially, I'm on Pittsburgh plus three, and so

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Speaker 4: I've gotten some closing line value on that. The thing is,

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Speaker 4: the Colts look so good last week playing the Eagles

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Speaker 4: before or after I bet this game that my projections

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Speaker 4: have now flipped, and I have this with the Colts

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Speaker 4: at three and a half. I think they should be

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Speaker 4: favored by three and a half. So if I were

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Speaker 4: to bet this today, which I probably wouldn't be doing.

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Speaker 4: But if I were about this today, I would be

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Speaker 4: on the Colts because if this is at two and

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Speaker 4: a half and my projections at three and a half,

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Speaker 4: there's theoretically some value there. But to second Fitz's point,

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Speaker 4: this is an ugly game and I probably shouldn't have

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Speaker 4: been betting it in the first place.

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Speaker 1: Well, there you go. Hopefully we can learn something next

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Speaker 1: year going forward. This is your New Year's resolution going

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Speaker 1: forward as we get closer to the holiday season. Now

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Speaker 1: it's time for a look ahead. At Week thirteen. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna kick things off here with an Indivision rivalry. The

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Speaker 1: Buffalo Bill's traveling to New England. New England five and

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Speaker 1: a half point home underdogs of this one. They're coming

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Speaker 1: off a loss here to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving Night.

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Speaker 1: Forty four and a half is the number plus one

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Speaker 1: ninety on the money line for the Patriots. Friedman. Last

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Speaker 1: time we saw these two teams lock up in the

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Speaker 1: playoffs last year, it was an ugly, ugly time. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is like Walmart after Black Friday, kind of an

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Speaker 1: ugly game there for the Patriots. So now we have

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Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills, who, let's be honest, they've kind of

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Speaker 1: been huttering their way, so to speak, to an eight

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Speaker 1: and three record here. It hasn't been also Chine and

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Speaker 1: Roses for the Bills. Then, when the Patriots certainly were

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Speaker 1: competitive in that game against Minnesota and seem to have

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Speaker 1: found a little bit of new life here in the offense.

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Speaker 1: Do you think this five and a half is a

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Speaker 1: safe number? Do you see any early look ahead value

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Speaker 1: on this game?

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Speaker 4: I have this projected a four point seventy five, which

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Speaker 4: you know at five and a half there's not really

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Speaker 4: much of a difference there.

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Speaker 5: So I don't really like that.

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Speaker 4: The total, though, is where I would probably look in

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Speaker 4: this game, because you've got two defensive minded teams, divisional opponents.

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Speaker 4: You know, cold weather, outdoor December unders like this just

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Speaker 4: feels like the spot if you're investing in the game,

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Speaker 4: I would look under here, and I bet this early

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Speaker 4: at let me make sure I actually have the right

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Speaker 4: number here. Bet the under at forty five and a half,

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Speaker 4: and as you said, I think it's now forty four

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Speaker 4: and a half. I still think there's value there.

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Speaker 5: I have this projected early on at forty three point four.

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Speaker 1: All right, pat Do you see any value here in

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Speaker 1: the same thing where you're looking at potentially the under

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Speaker 1: in this game on Thursday night football.

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Speaker 2: I do agree with Freedman on that all six Bills

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Speaker 2: road games this season have played to the under, so

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Speaker 2: that would definitely be the trend for them. And I

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Speaker 2: think this game the Patriots played on Thanksgiving Night was

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Speaker 2: sort of an anomaly, with mac Jones throwing for almost

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Speaker 2: four hundred yards and the Vikings moving up and down

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Speaker 2: the field almost at will against the Patriots. It was

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Speaker 2: a very anti Patriots game, so you know, maybe they

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Speaker 2: were a little thrown playing the Thursday night game on

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Speaker 2: a holiday. So yeah, last year's results, I mean, really

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Speaker 2: there were some pretty high scoring games. We had that

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Speaker 2: crazy wind game that the Patriots won fourteen to ten

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Speaker 2: with mac Jones throwing three forward passes, and then the yeah,

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Speaker 2: and then the Bills trucked the Patriots and the other

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Speaker 2: two thirty three, twenty one, and forty seven to seventeen

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Speaker 2: in the playoffs. So based on that, you would think

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Speaker 2: this might be like kind of a high scoring game.

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Speaker 2: But I'm with Friedman on the under, and you know,

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Speaker 2: don't really don't really see any value on the side,

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Speaker 2: maybe just to smidge like Friedman, I have a smidge

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Speaker 2: of value on the Patriots, but not much so.

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Speaker 1: You're not buying the air raid mac Jones offense. Okay,

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Speaker 1: got it? Not check and check. Pittsburgh Steelers going to

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Speaker 1: be on the road again here two times in a row.

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Speaker 1: This time is going to be in Atlanta, Atlanta five

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Speaker 1: and seven. The Steelers as of right now three and seven.

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Speaker 1: They are one and a half point road dogs in

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Speaker 1: this game to Atlanta, so Atlanta's favorite at home by

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Speaker 1: one and a half. Not much practically a pick them here.

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Speaker 1: Forty two is the number if you like Pittsburgh outright

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Speaker 1: on the money lines plus one oh five pat When

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Speaker 1: you're looking here at this contest, I know we're waiting

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Speaker 1: to see kind of what happens with Pittsburgh, but Vegas

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Speaker 1: is basically telling you here, hey, you know, go ahead

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Speaker 1: pick a side, and if so, do you see a

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Speaker 1: side that's worth picking at this juncture or do you

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Speaker 1: want to wait for results first before you look ahead

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Speaker 1: to wager on this one.

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Speaker 3: I do want to wait, Joe.

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Speaker 2: The inclination, if I did take this early would be

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Speaker 2: to bet these Steelers, since the Falcons are one in

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Speaker 2: six in their last games, last seven games against the spread.

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Speaker 2: So but then again, you know, Pittsburgh could get slammed

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Speaker 2: by injuries tonight and totally make me regret that.

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Speaker 3: So I'm just staying away.

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Speaker 2: I don't really see any value in the total or

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Speaker 2: the side in this game.

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Speaker 1: Let me flip that around for a second here for you, Freeman.

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Speaker 1: Let's say Pittsburgh comes out here and they're gangbusters, and

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Speaker 1: you know, Kenny Pickett throws two touchdowns at George Pickens

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Speaker 1: and Najie Harris looks real good, and they win this

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Speaker 1: road game. Do you see a scenario world of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: this line would invert itself.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I could.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there's not theoretically much of a difference between

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Speaker 4: one and a half on one side and flipping to

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Speaker 4: the other side, And if that happened, I'd probably be

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Speaker 4: on Atlanta. But like to Fitz's point, this is a

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Speaker 4: game that I have projected at one point twenty five

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Speaker 4: right now, I don't have anything.

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Speaker 5: To say on the side.

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Speaker 4: Theoretically, maybe I'd be on the total a little bit.

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Speaker 4: I have this the numbers at forty one and a half.

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Speaker 4: I believe I have it projected at forty two and

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Speaker 4: a half, So a little bit of value on the over,

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Speaker 4: but I'm not betting it. I'm staying away right now.

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Speaker 1: Does anyone want to win the NFC South?

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Speaker 5: Guys?

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Speaker 1: Do you think anybody wants to Just don't answer that question.

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Speaker 1: I'll think that question happens.

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Speaker 5: Theoretically you still win.

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Speaker 1: The Saints that got shut out? Is that the Saints team?

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Speaker 4: That Saints team, the Saints that almost covered at the

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Speaker 4: goal line?

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Speaker 5: But Alvin Kamara. But I'm not bitter about it, No.

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Speaker 1: Of course, not no bad feelings at all. Let's go

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Speaker 1: to the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore seven and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorites at home taking on the Denver Broncos. Oh,

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Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos. What what a disaster Nate in this year?

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Speaker 1: Thirty eight and a half is the number year. So

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Speaker 1: if you like points, this is not the game for you.

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Speaker 1: Plus two eighty on the money line, and that's kind

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Speaker 1: of where we have to start here. I feel like,

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Speaker 1: is this thirty eight and a half because this is

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Speaker 1: a very low number, Freeman. Typically you see a number

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Speaker 1: like this, it's almost like the discipline where you just

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Speaker 1: want to go over just on principle, But can you

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Speaker 1: do that right now with the way these two offenses

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Speaker 1: have played.

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Speaker 4: No, this is like a number that you see in

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Speaker 4: service academy football games, you know, like it's this is

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Speaker 4: not a real NFL number.

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Speaker 5: It's amazing.

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Speaker 4: And the offseason this number was forty eight, and the

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Speaker 4: look ahead market it was forty and a half. Last

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Speaker 4: night was thirty nine, and now as we're talking is

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Speaker 4: thirty eight and a half. It's gonna keep on going down.

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Speaker 4: The Broncos are ten and one to the under, and

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Speaker 4: they got that in a very deserved way by having

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Speaker 4: one of the worst offenses in the league, if not

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Speaker 4: the worst offense in the league, and one of the

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Speaker 4: best defenses in the league. And the market just is

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Speaker 4: still not caught up with it. The average for Broncos

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Speaker 4: games on the under, it's like more than ten points

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Speaker 4: from where the market is to where they actually finished.

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Speaker 4: So the market still has not come anywhere close to

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Speaker 4: catching up to the Broncos. So I'm very much on

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Speaker 4: the under here, even though it's a really low number

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Speaker 4: of thirty eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Broncos are a tough spot here too, let me

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Speaker 1: tell you. I mean yeah, they're one and five on

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Speaker 1: the road this year too, Just throwing that out there

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Speaker 1: for fun, if there is any fun attached to this game.

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Speaker 1: When you're looking at this game here, Fitz, do you

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Speaker 1: see any early value? As Friedman saying, look, this number

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Speaker 1: certainly is trending in the downward direction. Do you want

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Speaker 1: to jump on now before it just gets obliterated all together?

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Speaker 3: I do, and I want to jump on a side.

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Speaker 2: I want to jump on the Ravens even though they

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Speaker 2: were very cruel to me yesterday Friedman reference the heartbreak

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Speaker 2: for his cover in the Saints forty nine ers game.

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Speaker 2: You know, I saw Ravens cover just sort of crumble

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Speaker 2: before my eyes in a matter of moments.

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Speaker 3: Yesterday.

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Speaker 2: It was a really star crossed day for Friedman, and

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Speaker 2: I had best bets in Week twelve it was oh boy, so.

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Speaker 1: The last pair of star Cross lovers that did not

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Speaker 1: end up very well either, just I recall.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that said, I do think the Ravens

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Speaker 2: are positioned to just.

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Speaker 3: Drill the Broncos here.

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Speaker 2: And we're recording this on a Monday, like, no matter

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Speaker 2: how bad your Monday is going, right now, to all

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Speaker 2: our listeners out there, you're not on the hook for

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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson for five years and two hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: five million dollars, so I consider that.

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Speaker 1: I'm yelling at him on the That was my favorite

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Speaker 1: when the line was oh yeah, right, nose tackle Mike

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Speaker 1: Cursell yelling at russ on the sideline.

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Speaker 2: Things are just not going well at all. So like

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Speaker 2: we've seen six straight Broncos games go under. There have

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Speaker 2: not been more than thirty eight points in any of

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Speaker 2: those games. And I think the Ravens might actually cooperate

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Speaker 2: with the under two because their offense hasn't exactly been

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Speaker 2: hitting on all cylinders and we saw them really struggle

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Speaker 2: inside the red zone against the Jaguars yesterday, or they

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Speaker 2: would have won that game pretty easily. So yeah, I'm

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Speaker 2: very much on the Ravens here and kind of on

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Speaker 2: the under.

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Speaker 3: Also want to grab it now before it gets lower.

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Speaker 2: And I do think to Friedman's point, it's going to

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Speaker 2: go to like thirty seven and a half thirty seven,

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Speaker 2: Like it's gonna be very Panthers Broncos esque by the

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Speaker 2: time it's all over.

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Speaker 1: I think, Yeah, I think Nathaniel Hackett is going to

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Speaker 1: be very busy on LinkedIn sending a lot of resumes

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Speaker 1: out over the holiday season. Let's get to the next

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Speaker 1: one on the board here. I don't know who's going

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Speaker 1: to be playing quarterback in this one, folks, green Bay

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Speaker 1: against the Bears. So here we go. Green Bay right

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Speaker 1: now is two and a half point favorites on the

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Speaker 1: road against the Bears. Total. Forget Justin Fields. We don't

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Speaker 1: know if we're get Simeon. We don't know if we're

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Speaker 1: gonna get Aaron Rodgers or we're gonna get George Love.

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Speaker 1: It's got a lot of question mark t here regarding

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Speaker 1: these situations with these two quarterbacks in these two teams.

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Speaker 1: So forty three and a half is the number plus

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Speaker 1: one eighteen on the money line if you like the

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Speaker 1: Bears at home so fits. Let's talk about this. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: you got the oblique issue going on here. For Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure we're gonna get more news today later in

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Speaker 1: the day about that. He's also been dealing with a

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Speaker 1: thumb injury as well. Jeorde Love did have a decent

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Speaker 1: showing and then great pass there to the Christian Watson,

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Speaker 1: But again that's just one moment in time. Do you

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Speaker 1: believe here that they should be favorites on the road

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Speaker 1: against the Bears, and do you want to jump on

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Speaker 1: this line now where there's chaos because there's value, or

290
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Speaker 1: do you want to wait for clarity and make a

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Speaker 1: better wager.

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Speaker 2: The one thing that would get me interested early in

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Speaker 2: this game would be the way the Bears defense has

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Speaker 2: sort of crumbled. And our friend rich reebar Over at

295
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Speaker 2: Sharp Football just posted this on Twitter a little earlier,

296
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Speaker 2: talking about the way the Bears defense is really collapsed

297
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Speaker 2: over the last five weeks. They've allowed three point two

298
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Speaker 2: points per drive. They've allowed a touchdown on thirty nine

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Speaker 2: point six percent of the opponent's drives, forty one yards

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Speaker 2: for opponents per drive, six point seven yards allowed to play.

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Speaker 3: Three percent sack. Right, they've just crumbled.

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Speaker 1: Well, in all fairness, when you deal Robert Quinn, Rokwan

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Speaker 1: Smith and Briskers out with an injury, I mean, Brisker's

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Speaker 1: played phenomenal football this year. That's another guy I don't

305
00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:30,360
Speaker 1: think people talk enough about when he was out. That

306
00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,079
Speaker 1: was a huge loss in that game, and I think

307
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Speaker 1: everybody should have been pivoting to Garrett Wilson, Shares and

308
00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:36,920
Speaker 1: things like that. Take that guy out of the secondary

309
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Speaker 1: it's huge, so I'm not surprised by that. But if

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Speaker 1: there's extended period of time where you're going to miss

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Speaker 1: Brisker too, that certainly would you know, enter into my

312
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Speaker 1: psyche in this game as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely so with what they've lost on defense and

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Speaker 2: not knowing Brisker's status for Week thirteen. Agreed, Joe. I'm

315
00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:58,240
Speaker 2: tempted to take Green Bay and the over. But Jordan Love, Yes,

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00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,040
Speaker 2: small sample size performance and people are saying, well, they

317
00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,400
Speaker 2: still have to find out what they have in Jordan Love.

318
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Speaker 2: I mean I found out last year when they played

319
00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,960
Speaker 2: Kansas City had one of the best defensive performances by

320
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,120
Speaker 2: a Packer team in like the last decade, and Jordan

321
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,080
Speaker 2: Love couldn't pick up a first down. I mean, he

322
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Speaker 2: was totally hopeless in that game. So I'm not too optimistic.

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Speaker 2: And I mean, this could be Jordan Love against Justin

324
00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 2: Fields potentially, and you know, if we get that matchup.

325
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Speaker 2: Grabbing Chicago right now at plus three at home looks

326
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,120
Speaker 2: pretty good. So man, I'm kind of torn on what

327
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 2: to do. I'm thinking of putting down a small bet

328
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,000
Speaker 2: on the Bears as a home dog and this one

329
00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,800
Speaker 2: just hoping to get that Fields versus Love matchup.

330
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Speaker 1: Friedman, the Bears and Packers realistically were probably not relevant.

331
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Speaker 1: And if that's the case this year, do you think

332
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Speaker 1: that there's any reason whatsoever to push either of these

333
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Speaker 1: guys into this bit? Like, in other words, like should

334
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Speaker 1: we should we even be considering the fact that there's

335
00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,320
Speaker 1: a world where we get Fields this week or even

336
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Speaker 1: get Rogers this week? Why are we putting these guys

337
00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:05,120
Speaker 1: on the line for a season that clearly has gone

338
00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:05,840
Speaker 1: away from them.

339
00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:10,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's possible that either of these guys plays,

340
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,920
Speaker 4: But to your point, I'm kind of skeptical. And so

341
00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:17,840
Speaker 4: the projection that I have right now takes Trevor Simeon

342
00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,240
Speaker 4: against Jordan Love, and I haven't projected it two and

343
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Speaker 4: a half. So you know, if Fields comes back, and

344
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Speaker 4: I think he's likelier to come back than Rogers, but

345
00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,160
Speaker 4: I don't think either one is especially likely to come back.

346
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,600
Speaker 4: But if he comes back, then obviously this is massive

347
00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,920
Speaker 4: movement towards the Bears here, But at two and a half,

348
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:36,880
Speaker 4: I think it's probably where it should be, and I'm

349
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,240
Speaker 4: just I'm not doing anything with it right now.

350
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,680
Speaker 1: Well correct me if I'm wrong too. I mean, week

351
00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,120
Speaker 1: fourteen by mcgeddon. Right we are isn't the Bears part

352
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,320
Speaker 1: of that? I want to say, right? Or do we

353
00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:50,160
Speaker 1: have the Bears by off the top of my head,

354
00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:51,240
Speaker 1: do you guys remember.

355
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Bears. The Bears are on pie and the

356
00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,600
Speaker 4: Packers are on pie. So both of these teams are incentivized.

357
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Speaker 4: And that's the point I want to make.

358
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Speaker 1: Both these teams I feel like, are more incentivized to

359
00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,320
Speaker 1: be like, look, let's try to go out and this

360
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,560
Speaker 1: is like we're gonna have an extra week here with

361
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Speaker 1: the buy, get you guys super healthy. Maybe it was

362
00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:08,280
Speaker 1: the last couple of games to make a little headway.

363
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:10,240
Speaker 1: You start to finish the season the high note, But

364
00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:12,080
Speaker 1: the Bear's gonna be looking for trafficks at this point,

365
00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,520
Speaker 1: Like that's how you rebuild this organization. I don't think

366
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,040
Speaker 1: you see fields. I think is a better chance to

367
00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,040
Speaker 1: see Rogers. But I think that's becoming shrinking by the

368
00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,040
Speaker 1: moment as well. Let's get to the next one here,

369
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,400
Speaker 1: that buy situation, I knew, I forgot it was the

370
00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,560
Speaker 1: Packers too, but I remembered it was the Bears were

371
00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,160
Speaker 1: part of that Week fourteen. Let's go to the Detroit

372
00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:32,840
Speaker 1: Lions the plucky Detroit Lions showing grit on Thanksgiving. If

373
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:36,080
Speaker 1: they only had shown a little bit more kicking acumen,

374
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,520
Speaker 1: maybe they'd have a w there. They really should have.

375
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,280
Speaker 1: They are one point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars,

376
00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,280
Speaker 1: who Trevor Lawrence just pulled a rabbit out of his hat,

377
00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 1: and that one fifty one and a half is the

378
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 1: number in this game, basically all minus money here on

379
00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 1: the money line. So Friedman, let's look at this one here.

380
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:54,600
Speaker 1: It's practically a pick him. So do you have a

381
00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,160
Speaker 1: side that you like or you're just looking for that

382
00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:57,880
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half. I want to lock in

383
00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:00,200
Speaker 1: and over now before it starts to climb anymore.

384
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:02,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, that number probably will move.

385
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,440
Speaker 4: But you know unders have been the side this year,

386
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,920
Speaker 4: and I have this projected exactly at fifty one and

387
00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 4: a half, so I'm not looking to bet it.

388
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,440
Speaker 5: If I had to do anything, it would be Jags.

389
00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:15,600
Speaker 4: But I don't feel all that strongly about it, Like

390
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,240
Speaker 4: it wouldn't surprise me if this number actually flipped by

391
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,680
Speaker 4: the time we got to kickoff and the Jags were

392
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,359
Speaker 4: small favorites, and I actually, let me see, I have

393
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,439
Speaker 4: this projected almost exactly at a pick them. So, you know,

394
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:27,920
Speaker 4: I don't have much to say about this game. I

395
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:29,679
Speaker 4: think the numbers are pretty much where they should be.

396
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 1: Fitsy have any early look ahead value on this one

397
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 1: because it does seem kind of like a coin flip.

398
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,560
Speaker 2: At first, I had Friedman's thought that this game should

399
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:39,840
Speaker 2: maybe be a pick them, but then you know, I

400
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:41,879
Speaker 2: saw that the Lions are seven and four against the

401
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,119
Speaker 2: spread this year and have covered in three straight, so

402
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,040
Speaker 2: I'm okay with the side and not inclined to bet that,

403
00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,960
Speaker 2: but I think it probably plays under fifty one and

404
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 2: a half. I kind of want to jump on the

405
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:56,159
Speaker 2: under here, Like I don't see the Jaguars cooperating. Not

406
00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,040
Speaker 2: much explosiveness in their offense with Travis Etn likely to

407
00:17:59,960 --> 00:18:02,200
Speaker 2: be out for this game, and you know, that really

408
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:07,200
Speaker 2: leaves only maybe Christian Kirk is their sole explosive playmaker.

409
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,439
Speaker 2: I just don't know if they their offense cooperates with

410
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 2: the you know, Lions, who love to play and shootouts.

411
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 2: I don't know if the Jaguars are a good dance

412
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 2: partner for them to get over fifty one and a half.

413
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,919
Speaker 4: What about that Marvin Jones slander right there? In a

414
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 4: revenge game against the line.

415
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:29,919
Speaker 1: The Marvin Jones game. What's he got to be mad about?

416
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,440
Speaker 1: What's everyone's always so mad? Like, you know, I don't

417
00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:35,639
Speaker 1: never any revenge against other places I worked. I'm very

418
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 1: happy of fantasy.

419
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 4: I think this line will move up. It's already gone

420
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 4: to fifty two at DraftKings and Caesars. I think it

421
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,320
Speaker 4: will continue to move up. So if you're if you're

422
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,000
Speaker 4: like fits and you do like the under, I think

423
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 4: probably wait a little bit.

424
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440
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441
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442
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443
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444
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445
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446
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,480
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447
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 1: E n Y. In New York, call or text the

448
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,240
Speaker 1: Tennessee Redline at one eight hundred eight nine nine seven

449
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 1: eight nine in Tennessee or called one eight eight eight

450
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 1: seven seven seven nine six nine six MISSISSIPI and Ontario.

451
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:55,880
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452
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453
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454
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 1: on a free of charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio,

455
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,720
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456
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,280
Speaker 1: not available in New York. And now back to the action.

457
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the next one here. The

458
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 1: Houston Texans was not a good Sunday for them. They

459
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 1: are at home, they are one to nine and one.

460
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,639
Speaker 1: They are seven point underdogs two the Cleveland Browns. And

461
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,160
Speaker 1: then returning to Shaun Watson, this is it, folks, We're

462
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:21,160
Speaker 1: getting it here.

463
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 5: We go.

464
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,439
Speaker 1: Forty four and a half is the number. If you

465
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 1: like Houston and you're crazy, it's plus two fifty here

466
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 1: on the money line. So lots of emotions, lots of feels,

467
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 1: lots of stuff going on here in this game fits.

468
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna present this out here, of all the

469
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: games and all the gin joints in all the world,

470
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson has walked back into this one. In this scenario,

471
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 1: does Houston kind of get up for this game? In

472
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 1: some kind of weird way. Do you think that maybe

473
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 1: this is a more dangerous line than we realize. How

474
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 1: do you see this game cooking out here for a

475
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 1: Brown seam that's coming off a high in a big victory.

476
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: Is there any rust? Is there let down? What's the

477
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 1: scenario in this game for you?

478
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 2: Well, Joe, let's just bear in mind that in no

479
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 2: way was the Deshaun Watson suspension purposely timed so that

480
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 2: he would come off to play his old team in

481
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: the Houston Texans. The NFL had no idea that was

482
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 2: going to be the case when they set that suspension. Yeah, Like,

483
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 2: I'm kind of going with the narrative here that this

484
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 2: is going to be the Texans Super Bowl. I'm kind

485
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 2: of ignoring all other inputs in this game, mainly the

486
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 2: input that the Texans have played like complete crap for

487
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 2: the last what three four weeks? But I mean, I

488
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 2: think they're going to get it together. They know that

489
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,160
Speaker 2: this game is going to generate a lot of attention,

490
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 2: and they I don't think want to lay an egg

491
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 2: in this game against Watson, and I think they're going

492
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 2: to be pretty fired.

493
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 3: Up for this one.

494
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 2: So I'm going to make a small bet on the Texans.

495
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 2: I'm going to make a larger bet on the under.

496
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 2: As you mentioned, Joe some ross for Deshaun Watson as possible.

497
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:56,439
Speaker 3: We saw in the preseason.

498
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,879
Speaker 2: I think Friedman and I were watching Deshaun Watson together

499
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 2: when we were in Canton for the Fantasy Football Xpo,

500
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 2: watching Deshaun Watson spray passes all over the place like

501
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 2: he can't be one hundred game fit and game sharp

502
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 2: after the long layoff, and the Texans last three games

503
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 2: and for their last five have played to the under.

504
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 2: I don't think their offense is going to cooperate with

505
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 2: a shootout here. So yeah, I do like the under here,

506
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 2: and I kind of like Houston in a game where

507
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 2: you know the Texans are going to be really motivated.

508
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 1: Freedman, the Texans have lost six in a row here,

509
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 1: but certainly there's a lot of reason to get up,

510
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 1: as Pat was saying, for this game. They got up

511
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago to play the Eagles, too,

512
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 1: so they know everybody's watching. Obviously, we've got some issues

513
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 1: there with the Texans on both sides of the football,

514
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 1: But what are your thoughts on this one? Do you

515
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 1: see this line changing as the week goes on.

516
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: I don't know about changing. I think seven is probably

517
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 4: where it should be. But well, I think seven is

518
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 4: a number that makes sense for the market. I have

519
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 4: this projected at eight and a half. But you know,

520
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 4: like I know that there's potential weakness in the projections because,

521
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,199
Speaker 4: as Fitz said, yeah, Deshaun Watson may not be his

522
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 4: normal self coming back from you know, at this point,

523
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 4: like a year and a half layoff. Uh, And you

524
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 4: know I have him as four points better than Jacoby Brissett.

525
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,959
Speaker 4: Maybe he's not. Maybe in like a vacuum he is,

526
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 4: but maybe not with all the rusts that he's accumulated

527
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,360
Speaker 4: in a new city, new offense.

528
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 5: All of that.

529
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 4: And the Houston Texans, even though I seem like not

530
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 4: to downright them enough in my rankings each week, maybe

531
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 4: it's a situation where, to Fitz's point, this is their

532
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 4: super Bowl, Like this is a game where maybe love

533
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 4: Smith actually goes forward on fourth down, Like maybe he

534
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 4: does some uncharacteristically aggressive things that changed the way that

535
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 4: I should view this team for one week, and so

536
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 4: all of that, Like, I'm aware that it's a possibility.

537
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 4: That said, I still think the base general scenario is

538
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 4: that Deshaun Watson is a very good quarterback. He's on

539
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 4: a pretty decent team, like with the players around him,

540
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 4: and they're going against the worst team in the league.

541
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 4: I know everything else can sort of change the way

542
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 4: that this game unfolds. But I bet this on the

543
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 4: look ahead at Cleveland five and a half because I

544
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 4: had it projected higher and I thought the market would

545
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 4: move higher. I don't see it moving towards Houston because

546
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 4: Houston is so bad that if it gets to six

547
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 4: and a half, I think Brown's money will come in

548
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 4: and drive it back to seven, and if anything, I

549
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 4: think it will move the other direction.

550
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,399
Speaker 1: Okay, fair enough, let's get to the next one. Here,

551
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 1: the New York Jets and the greatest quarterback that ever lived,

552
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 1: Mike White, will travel to the Minnesota Vikings, and they

553
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 1: will play the Vikings in this contest. The Vikes are

554
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 1: just three point favorites in this one. So the nine

555
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 1: and two Vikings are just three point favorites at home

556
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 1: against the seven and four Jets. That granted, I'm gonna

557
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 1: give the Jets a lot of credit here. Defensively, I

558
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 1: have for gosh months now. Forty three is the number

559
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: in this game plus one forty on the money line.

560
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 1: So I'm looking at this game and this just does

561
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 1: not feel like enough respect for the Vikings here. And

562
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 1: I'm given plenty of respect and for the Jets. Jets

563
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: defense is great, but at a certain point too, when

564
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 1: do we start giving the Vikings some respect here? When

565
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 1: do we start saying, hey, this is a really good team.

566
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 1: They're getting the job done here. I know if it

567
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 1: doesn't like when I say nice things about the Vikings,

568
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 1: it's just a principal thing. But what do you think

569
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 1: about this one?

570
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 5: Here?

571
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 1: Is this Jets defense and offense more importantly going to

572
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 1: travel to Minnesota here and be what Vegas is telling you?

573
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 1: Which is a problem.

574
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think three is too short. I've

575
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 4: a projected at four and a half. And Mike White

576
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 4: is certainly i'd say better within the confines of what

577
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 4: they want him to be able to do in that offense.

578
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 4: He's better than Zach Wilson. But that said, he looks

579
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 4: really great against one of the worst defenses in the

580
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 4: league last week, and so you know, there's a difference

581
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 4: between that and Minnesota. That said, the Vikings defense isn't

582
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,919
Speaker 4: all that great either, But I still think three points.

583
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 4: You know, that's basically like the home field advantage, not

584
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,679
Speaker 4: quite the home field advantage, but like the Vikings have

585
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 4: a real home field advantage, like a legit home field advantage.

586
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 4: So the NFL or the market here is basically saying

587
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 4: this is a home field difference, and I don't think

588
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 4: that's the case.

589
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 1: That's a little extra time to prepare for the Vikings too,

590
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 1: because they played on Thursday. A lot of positives here.

591
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 1: I saw this three and right away I said, no, no, no,

592
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,640
Speaker 1: this is not enough respect for the Vikings. Friedman tends

593
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: to agree, do you want to make it three for

594
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 1: three here on this one?

595
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 3: Well, so, yeah, Joe, I echo your sentiments on that.

596
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 3: I don't.

597
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: My first thought when I saw this line was wow,

598
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 2: that's not a lot of respect for the Vikings. And

599
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: you know, I've got I think the Vikings should be

600
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 2: four to four and a quarter point favorites. So I'm

601
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 2: with Friedman on that projection. But then, you know, I

602
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 2: take a closer look at some of the breakdowns and

603
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 2: see the DVOA with the Vikings now ranked twenty fourth

604
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 2: in the league and over all, DVOA nineteenth offense, eighteenth defense,

605
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 2: twenty sixth Special Team. This is unit to unit mediocrity

606
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 2: in every phase of the game for the Vikings in

607
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:13,959
Speaker 2: everything except winning close games.

608
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 3: They're great at that.

609
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 2: So but then again, you know, like I've been on

610
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: the Jets for a lot of the season, I love

611
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 2: their defense. I love that Mike White gives them at least,

612
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 2: you know, a competence offense. And they're seven and four

613
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 2: against the spread this year, four and one against the

614
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 2: spread on the road. So those two things just sort

615
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 2: of a meeting of two opposites. I'm just going to

616
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 2: stay away from this game, Like you know, I've got

617
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 2: things pointing me in two different directions here, and I'm

618
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 2: just not going to touch it.

619
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Minnesota. I'm on the Minnesota side of

620
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 1: this game, and then and handle it. So what I

621
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 1: feel like it's the classic build up too, where you know,

622
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 1: the Jets hung with the Patriots there and they lost

623
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 1: a tough game there, and you have this belief and

624
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: then you go and you Mike White at home in

625
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 1: the rain, the crowd's going wild. They demanded the quarterback

626
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 1: change and got the quarterback change. Of getting all the fields,

627
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: you get the performance, and then you go to Minnesota

628
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,719
Speaker 1: and you get pounded. I think that's exactly the Jet narrative. Well,

629
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 1: you gotta love my whole life, so I know what

630
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: it is.

631
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 2: You gotta love like we're we're factoring in you know,

632
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 2: when whenever a backup has to make the start, like

633
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 2: you know how much the starter is worth to the spread.

634
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 2: It's funny to get this spike, this Vegas spike in

635
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 2: value for Mike White, the backup quarterback. I mean, like,

636
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 2: what's he been worth that? That line against the Bears

637
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 2: kept going up, and there was a point when I

638
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 2: was like, should I take the Bears in this? They

639
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 2: were getting like eight before kickoff. Luckily I stayed away

640
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 2: on that because I was really tempted to put a

641
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 2: little something down on the Bear that.

642
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 1: Nathan Peterman fake out that we all got for like

643
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 1: ten minutes. What the hell is that about? Oh my god,

644
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 1: that was the worst. All right, let's get to something

645
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: else here. Let's get to two teams in the same

646
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 1: division going in the opposite direction. The New York Giants

647
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: lost two in a row. The Washington Commanders, on the

648
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 1: other hand, they've won three in a row. They're gonna

649
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,959
Speaker 1: face off here in New York. The Giants are one

650
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: and a half point home underdogs here against the Commanders.

651
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: Washington's played great against the run the last month. Forty

652
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: and a half is the number if you like the

653
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: Giants with the upset plus one ten. I know in

654
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: division games are always tough fits. This feels just as

655
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: close as the line. But if we're talking about the

656
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: direction of two teams, that we're talking about what one

657
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 1: team does exceedingly well and what the other team wants

658
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 1: to do. Giants want to run the football. Washington's big bonuses.

659
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: They can stop you from running the football. Does that

660
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: leave a lot here for Daniel Jones and the rest

661
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 1: of this offense to pick up the slack. I'm a

662
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: little worried here about the Giants in the spot.

663
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 5: What do you think?

664
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 3: I'm totally with you, Joe.

665
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 2: That's the thing, Like, the Giants passing offense is very

666
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 2: sleepy right now, and all they can do is run

667
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: the ball, whether it's with Saquon Barkley or Daniel Jones,

668
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 2: and they're going up against this great run defense. And oh,

669
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: by the way, the Giants have not run the ball

670
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 2: with any you know, any effectiveness. The last couple of weeks,

671
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 2: starting with Saquon Barkley getting stuffed by the Lions, who

672
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 2: have one of the worst run defenses in the league

673
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 2: two weeks ago. Didn't really get it going against Dallas

674
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 2: either on Thanksgiving. So, I mean, Washington has just been

675
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 2: really tough in these last three games, you know, three

676
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 2: straight over Philly, Houston, Atlanta and really underrated defense for Washington.

677
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 2: And maybe they get Chase Young back this week so

678
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:28,479
Speaker 2: that defense gets even better. Commanders are six to zero

679
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: to one against the spread in their last seven games.

680
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: All things are kind of pointing towards them here. I

681
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 2: kind of feel like I'm walking into a snare trap,

682
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 2: but like it's banged up as the Giants are with

683
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 2: this plague of injuries they've had to their cornerbacks and

684
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 2: offensive linemen. Like, I just think the Commanders are are

685
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 2: pretty good value as a slight road favorite here.

686
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 1: For even what are your thoughts here? Do the Commanders

687
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: go in wearing their big hats and go pull off

688
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 1: and upset of here the Giants?

689
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, so FITS is out of everything that we're pulling

690
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 4: into our you know, official betting pros projections right now,

691
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 4: Fits is the highest on the Commanders and I am

692
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 4: the highest on the Giants, and you know, together we

693
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 4: put this number exactly at one point five, so you know,

694
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 4: we're balancing each other out. I'm on the Giants here.

695
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 4: You know, Daniel Jones has been good in division He's

696
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 4: ten and five in division good as an underdog, twenty

697
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 4: three fourteen against the spread as an underdog, so you

698
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 4: put that together, eight and three against the spread as

699
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 4: a divisional underdog at home. I just, yeah, I think

700
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 4: this is a spot, especially with this number at two

701
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 4: at DraftKings and two and a half at points Bet,

702
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 4: I do think that there's some value here.

703
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 1: So I will apologies. It's not the upset and Washington

704
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: just go in and beat New York. They are the

705
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 1: favorites minus one and a half there, even though it

706
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like they're the favorites. They should be the favorites,

707
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 1: but for some reason it still doesn't feel that way.

708
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: The Giants are starting to, you know, do that thing

709
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: where you know it starts off good that fades away

710
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 1: a good will with Brian Dabole and everyone's so happy.

711
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, it's getting real weird here, real

712
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 1: quick speaking a weird get this one here, Philadelphia Eagles

713
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: ten to one against the Tennessee Titans. Here the Eagles

714
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 1: are six point favorites at home against the Titans. And

715
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 1: this was the game that I circled a couple weeks ago.

716
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 1: I said, if we're gonna find a lost year for

717
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 1: this Eagles team that can't be defeated, I'm circling the Titans.

718
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 1: That's the one. Now. They ended up losing before that

719
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 1: to the Washington Commanders. If you're looking here at the number,

720
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: forty four and a half is the number if you

721
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 1: like the Tennessee Titans to win this game outright, and

722
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: I do. It's plus two hundred here on the money line.

723
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: That's right, ugly football, good coaching. The Titans should have

724
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: won yesterday too, Let's be honest. So let's talk about

725
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: this one here. Obviously, Jalen Hursts look great. I think

726
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 1: we have to kind of once again put it in perspective.

727
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: You're a little bit freement of what the Packers are

728
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 1: at this juncture. The Packers fought, they battled. This defense

729
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 1: has not played the same as it did last year.

730
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 1: It's not been the same team. Jalen Hurts look great.

731
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:58,479
Speaker 5: I get it.

732
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 1: Everything's going well. I think this is a real test

733
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: and this is the one I've been waiting for. We're

734
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: gonna get it here. What do you think about the six?

735
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:06,479
Speaker 1: What do you think about this number? What do the

736
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 1: Freedman projections say about Titans Eagles?

737
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, my projections are pretty boring. They are very close

738
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 4: to the numbers here. I have, you know, almost nothing

739
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 4: to say about this game. Like the number of six.

740
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,479
Speaker 4: I have it at six point two five. The total

741
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 4: is forty four and a half. I have it at

742
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 4: forty four point three. But Joe, to your point, when

743
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 4: you're looking at the actual on field matchups the Titans,

744
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 4: the one thing they do really well is to defend

745
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,959
Speaker 4: the run. Like they are strong against the run, like

746
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 4: you know, top if not the best team in the

747
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 4: league against the run, certainly top three. And that's the

748
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 4: one thing that even when the Eagles have struggled offensively,

749
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 4: they've been able to get back to the running game

750
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 4: to fix their woes. But this is the one spot

751
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 4: where maybe they won't have the ability to do it.

752
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: And this is the one spot too if you look back,

753
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 1: what was the team that beat them with the Commanders?

754
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 1: What do they do well stop the run? So if

755
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 1: you could beat the Eagles in there and slow that

756
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: run game down. This becomes a very winnable game here

757
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 1: for the Titans.

758
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 5: Fits.

759
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,280
Speaker 1: Let's go Eagles Titans early look ahead value.

760
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 2: What do you see from facing the Packers run defense

761
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 2: to facing the Titans run defense. It's gonna be like

762
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 2: going from the sauna into the cold tob here for

763
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 2: the Eagles on offense. Yeah, I mean like the I

764
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 2: like the matchup for the Titans. Because of that, Joe,

765
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 2: I'm kind of falling for your idea of taking the

766
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 2: money line with the Titans here.

767
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 3: And I definitely like the value.

768
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 2: On the Titans, Like they've been really tough this year,

769
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,760
Speaker 2: and uh, you know, coming off a tough home loss

770
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 2: to the Bengals, I think they're going to be pretty

771
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 2: fired up.

772
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,919
Speaker 3: And the Eagles just still not quite right.

773
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 2: I mean, they had that debacle against the Commanders, then

774
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 2: they barely squeaked by a one point win over the

775
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 2: lowly Colts, and then this past week, like we saw

776
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: their defense look kind of shoddy against the Packers. I thought, like,

777
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 2: I wasn't really impressed with the Eagles and that wins.

778
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 2: So and then as I Friedman and I discussed this

779
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 2: yesterday on our Sunday Morning show. The Titans have been

780
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 2: an under team all year, and you know they just

781
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:13,720
Speaker 2: seven of their last eight.

782
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 3: Games now have played to the under.

783
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 2: I think they're going to drag the Eagles into the

784
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 2: mock with them again this week.

785
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 3: So I like the Titans in the under here.

786
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the next one here, ah,

787
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: the La Rams. It's been a tough season for the Rams,

788
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 1: hasn't it. I mean, the the Sean McVeigh getting hit

789
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 1: by his own player on the sideline here. I feel

790
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: like that's exactly the feeling of this Rams season. That's

791
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 1: if you could capsulate it in one moment, that would

792
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: be the moment. They are at home, but they are

793
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 1: five point underdogs at home to the Seattle Seahawks. The

794
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 1: Seahawks coming off a tough overtime loss to the Las

795
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders. Josh Jacobs is still running somewhere right now.

796
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,879
Speaker 1: Forty two is the number plus one seventy five here

797
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 1: for the Rams on the money line. But Fitz, let's

798
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: talk about this here because Seattle, Look, we we kind

799
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: of know who Seattle is at this point. We know

800
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: what they want to do. Se was a pretty good

801
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 1: football team, not a great football team. But we're in

802
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 1: a spot here where the Rams. I know they're trying

803
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 1: to hold it all together here, but it feels like

804
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 1: no Alan Robinson, no Cooper Cup probably no Matthew Stafford.

805
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 1: It feels like this season is just kind of headed

806
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 1: for disintegration. I know they really they did everything they

807
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 1: could to hang in there with the Chiefs yesterday, and

808
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: they did for a while, but it just feels like

809
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 1: it's a losing battle. What are your thoughts here on

810
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 1: this game.

811
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 2: Joe, Think back if we were talking about this game

812
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: at the end of August.

813
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 3: Three months inverted at least, yeah, right, exactly at least.

814
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 2: I mean, if you had told us in August that

815
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 2: we would be looking at a line with Seattle favored

816
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 2: by five at the Rams, and we'd be looking at

817
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 2: this line saying.

818
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 3: Is that enough by more so?

819
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like I'm I'm right at the number

820
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 2: here with the projection, so I'm not really inclined to

821
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:58,760
Speaker 2: bet at Maybe I'm a little slightly in towards the under.

822
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 2: You know, Bryce Perk, he looked like what we thought

823
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 2: he'd look like against the Chiefs. Took five sacks through

824
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:08,280
Speaker 2: two interceptions. I mean, the Rams offense is just completely dead.

825
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 2: So getting to forty two, even though the Seattle offense

826
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 2: is lively, seems like kind of a tall order with

827
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 2: the Rams probably not keeping up there end of the

828
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:18,880
Speaker 2: bargain in any over beat.

829
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:21,879
Speaker 1: Freeman, do you kind of get that sense too, where

830
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 1: it's you hit the under maybe in this game early

831
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 1: and then any weight or I don't even know, Like

832
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 1: where are we here with the Seattle number?

833
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 5: Five?

834
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 1: Is that just not enough in your opinion too? Just

835
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 1: out of the gate?

836
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like this is an area where I feel like

837
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 4: my projections are going to lag reality because of all

838
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 4: of the differences, like the changes that we've seen on

839
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,720
Speaker 4: the Rams over the past month, with all the injuries

840
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,319
Speaker 4: they've incurred, and to the point earlier about where this

841
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 4: number was before the season started, this was ten. The

842
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 4: Rams were favored by ten at home in the offseason

843
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 4: looking ahead to this number, and then now it's totally flipped,

844
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,399
Speaker 4: and I don't think it's gone far enough.

845
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 5: Like I know, I don't have it projected here.

846
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 4: I haven't projected at four point seventy five, like so

847
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 4: I don't really see much value. But I betted at

848
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 4: four and a half where that number is still available

849
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 4: at DraftKings. I think the numbers are going to continue

850
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 4: to move, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's got

851
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 4: to seven.

852
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,399
Speaker 5: Like who wants to bet on the Rams right now?

853
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 5: And the Seahawks can't.

854
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,959
Speaker 4: They are motivated right, like, yeah, they have the chance

855
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 4: to win the division.

856
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 5: It's right there.

857
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 4: They're coming off of a game that they should have

858
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 4: won or they could have won. Like they are going

859
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 4: to get their like revenge on the Rams, you know,

860
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 4: like like all their frustrations from not beating the Raiders.

861
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 4: They're going to take that on a Rams team that

862
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 4: is totally defenseless at this point. This could be one

863
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,280
Speaker 4: of the games of the week. Here Miami in San Francisco.

864
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: San Franz seven and four and the Dolphins are eight

865
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: and three if they destroyed the Texans. But there was

866
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 1: a lot of sloppiness in that Dolphins game, a lot

867
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 1: there was a couple of picks two that should have

868
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 1: been picks that weren't picks At two or three. They

869
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: are three and a half way underdogs traveling to San Francisco,

870
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 1: which absolutely makes sense. This feels right in terms of

871
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 1: respect for both teams as number forty six and a

872
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 1: half is the over under plus one fifty on the

873
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: money line. If you like the Dolphins here, Freeman, I'm

874
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 1: on the San France side of this game. Defense, running

875
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 1: the football. I know Elijah Mitchell is going to be

876
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 1: out for this one. It looks like possibly for quite

877
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: a while two, which means you're going to probably get

878
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 1: a little bit more CMC. And I think that's actually

879
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:23,800
Speaker 1: a good thing in this game for the San Francisco

880
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 1: four honers. You run the football, you play defense. These

881
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 1: are the things that you do in December in January

882
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 1: that gets you to a Super Bowl. I feel like

883
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: they're able to do those two things, whereas the Dolphins

884
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: defense still suspect to me. And look, the run game

885
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 1: didn't look as good as it did when last week

886
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 1: left the Dolphins. So what are your thoughts here on

887
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:41,360
Speaker 1: this contest?

888
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I bet this early Miami look ahead of four

889
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 4: and a half. I don't love it nearly as much

890
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 4: at three and a half, especially with all of the

891
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 4: injuries that the Dolphins incurred yesterday.

892
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 5: That's the big thing.

893
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:57,200
Speaker 4: So left tackle Tron Armstead has a pectoral injury. He's

894
00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 4: expected to miss multiple weeks Jeff Will dealing with the

895
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,919
Speaker 4: calf injury. It looks like he's probably fine, but that's

896
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 4: not a guarantee.

897
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 5: And then right.

898
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 4: Tackle Austin Jackson he left the game also with an

899
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 4: ankle injury. So if you have both of the starting

900
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 4: tackles out for the Dolphins, that makes me really hesitant

901
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 4: to bet on them as road underdogs here against the

902
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 4: forty nine ers team that knows the system, like the

903
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 4: offensive system right that McDaniel is running there. So I mean,

904
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 4: I see this basically where it should be at three

905
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 4: and a half. I'm not really looking to bet either

906
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 4: side here.

907
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 1: Fitz Friedman makes a great point there about the tackles

908
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,440
Speaker 1: being out there and the pressure that San Francis want

909
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 1: to put on the quarterback. I think if you bring

910
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 1: that pressure onto to it, you're gonna get some mistakes

911
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 1: in this game. And if you do, I mean this

912
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: could be maybe more one side than people think, potentially

913
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 1: on the forty nine er side. What are your thoughts

914
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: on the early look ahead value if any, on this contest.

915
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the forty nine Ers should be favored

916
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 2: by at least four. So if it's a three and

917
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:56,799
Speaker 2: a half, I see a little value there, and I

918
00:40:56,840 --> 00:41:00,360
Speaker 2: wanted to really like the over here, Like my rejection

919
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:02,879
Speaker 2: for this is forty nine, so two points to the over.

920
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 2: But yeah, with those tackles and Jeff Wilson potentially missing

921
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 2: this game, that could sort of dampen my enthusiasm for that.

922
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 2: So you know, I maybe want to see if this

923
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 2: number goes down before I actually hit it. Yeah, I

924
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 2: mean the forty nine ers, they've they've scored twenty six

925
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 2: a game since they got McCaffrey, and the Dolphins have

926
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 2: scored I believe thirty or more and four straight. I

927
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 2: really really really want to bet this over, but you

928
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 2: can't do it with the Dolphins.

929
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: I played a lot of lesser teams too. I mean,

930
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 1: let's be honest, you're playing Houston, you're playing Cleveland, and

931
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 1: you're playing teams of defensively just have nothing there. So

932
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 1: color me unimpressed a little bit by the Miami Dolphins.

933
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: Still sorry, sorry deal, sorry everybody, Sorry Dolphins fans. Let's

934
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 1: go to Kansas City and Cincinnati. Typically, the over is

935
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 1: the way to go for this contest when these two

936
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 1: teams match up. Fifty one and a half is the

937
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:54,920
Speaker 1: number in this one. The Cincinnati Bengals are at home.

938
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 1: They're two and a half point underdogs though to Kansas City, which, honestly,

939
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:00,840
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's giving cans City enough credit

940
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:02,359
Speaker 1: to be honest. Where these two teams are at right

941
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 1: now plus one twenty four on the money line, Uh,

942
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 1: fit's what's your inclination in this game here too? I

943
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 1: feel like Kansas City is still a class above the

944
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 1: Bengals right now. But that fifty one and a half look,

945
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if we have to get

946
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 1: beat over the head with it, but when these two

947
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 1: teams match up, it just seems to be an easy over.

948
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe I didn't give the Bengals enough respect yesterday

949
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 2: in really liking the Titans as one of my best bets.

950
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:29,879
Speaker 2: I mean, it was about either, So don't feel bad.

951
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,760
Speaker 2: So we're in the side. I mean because after starting

952
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,280
Speaker 2: zero to two, the Bengals have gone seven and two since,

953
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 2: and they're eight and one against the spread in their

954
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:40,799
Speaker 2: last nine games. They have been a cover machine for

955
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 2: most of the year, So I like them as a

956
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 2: home dog. And maybe they get Jamar Chase back, which

957
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,399
Speaker 2: would you know, really help set up the shootout here

958
00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 2: in this game.

959
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 3: I mean, what a fun game this is going to be.

960
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the Bengals, like I'm gonna bet them

961
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 2: on the money line and you know, get my even

962
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:01,240
Speaker 2: money or better.

963
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 3: I think they can absolutely hang with the Chiefs.

964
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 1: Freeman, how about you? Do you think the Bengals are

965
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:07,919
Speaker 1: not getting enough respect here?

966
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 5: Now?

967
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 4: Fitz and I are on opposite sides of this. I

968
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 4: have this projected at three and a half. But I

969
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 4: you know, I will say, out of all the numbers

970
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 4: that we're pulling in for our projections.

971
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 5: I am the highest on the Chiefs.

972
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 4: But I've you know, I've been probably too high on

973
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 4: the Chiefs for the entire year. And I would say,

974
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 4: like early in the year that was probably a good

975
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 4: thing because I think the market was too low on

976
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 4: the Chiefs. But you know, there's been a string of

977
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 4: games where they've been favored, you know, by double digits,

978
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 4: and they haven't been covering. But this does feel like

979
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 4: a different type of game, Like there's a difference between

980
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 4: Andy Reid doing what he has to do to win

981
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:46,439
Speaker 4: a game without fully opening up the playbook and them

982
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 4: going against a team that kept them out of the

983
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 4: Super Bowl last year. I think we see like the

984
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 4: full Chiefs in this game, and so I have them

985
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 4: as the best team in the league. The Bengals, I mean,

986
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 4: I have them as three points better than your average

987
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,240
Speaker 4: team on a neutral field. So I'm not I feel

988
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 4: like not disrespecting them, but maybe I haven't bumped them

989
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:06,439
Speaker 4: up enough.

990
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 5: But yeah, I have the Chiefs by three and a

991
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 5: half here, all right.

992
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 1: Next we have the Chargers and Raiders. This one is

993
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 1: going to be in Vegas. Vegas is going to be

994
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,879
Speaker 1: two and a half point home underdogs in this one.

995
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 1: Fifteen and a half is the number plus one fifteen

996
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,280
Speaker 1: on the money line for even Is this the classic

997
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 1: Chargers coming off a big win and then Chargers are

998
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 1: going to charger here and drop one to Vegas? Is

999
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 1: this like that perfect scenario that we've seen time and

1000
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:30,560
Speaker 1: time again where just when you start to think it's

1001
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 1: safe to go out there and bet on the Chargers,

1002
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 1: that they go and lose a game on the road

1003
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:35,839
Speaker 1: to the Vegas Raiders.

1004
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 4: I would like to hear what would Fit has to

1005
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 4: say about this game realized this was.

1006
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 1: A pass or play scenario.

1007
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 5: I'm gonna say.

1008
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 4: I'm gonna say because this is one spot where we

1009
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 4: are really off and I don't like where I am

1010
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 4: on this game. My projections have the Raiders as favored

1011
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 4: by one, which is disgusting. It's absolutely disgusting because I

1012
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 4: don't want to be betting on this team. But I

1013
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 4: have done it, and honestly, I wish I would have

1014
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 4: done it on the look ahead when it was three

1015
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 4: instead of the early line last night when it was

1016
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 4: two and a half. But you know, given that I

1017
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:11,479
Speaker 4: haven't projected at one like they are a bad team.

1018
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 4: The Raiders are a bad team, There's no question about that.

1019
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 4: Especially defensively they're bad like. Their weakness is in the secondary.

1020
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 4: The thing is, I don't know if the Chargers are

1021
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 4: really built to exploit that weakness in as maximal of

1022
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 4: a way as they should have because of their dink

1023
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 4: and dunk tendencies in the passing game. And you flip

1024
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 4: that around, the Raiders are one of the best teams

1025
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 4: in the league at running the ball, and that is

1026
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:37,040
Speaker 4: entirely where the Chargers are weak on dtense. So the

1027
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 4: matchup is actually pretty decent in terms of strength versus vulnerability.

1028
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 1: Fits it seems like Friedman is one of the undecided voters,

1029
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:48,320
Speaker 1: so you get to Canvas right now you get to

1030
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:50,359
Speaker 1: go out there and possibly bring him over to your

1031
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 1: side for your vote. So how do you feel about this?

1032
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,400
Speaker 2: So I've gotten burned betting against the Raiders the last

1033
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:56,319
Speaker 2: two weeks, and.

1034
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:58,240
Speaker 3: Now Friedman is trying to flip me to bet.

1035
00:45:58,080 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 2: On the Raiders and they able to go.

1036
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 3: Out and lay the biggest egg in the world.

1037
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 1: So two overtime victories in splash format too. Let I

1038
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 1: mean that Devonte Adams catch the Jacobs run. I mean

1039
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,439
Speaker 1: these were not like grinded out. These were one big

1040
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 1: play overtime victories where like something magical happened. I don't know,

1041
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 1: does that mean you just start to believe in yourself

1042
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 1: a little bit more?

1043
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 3: Maybe?

1044
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 2: And I didn't expect the Raiders to get anywhere near

1045
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:25,879
Speaker 2: overtime in either of these last two games. So yeah,

1046
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 2: I didn't like them at all. And you know, the

1047
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 2: Chargers or another they've been like jackal and high too.

1048
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 2: There have been times this year where I thought they

1049
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 2: looked like a Super Bowl contender, and other years or

1050
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 2: other games where I was, you know, wondering what that

1051
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 2: heck could happen to them.

1052
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 3: So I think I'm just gonna walk away from this game.

1053
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 2: And you know, ride Freeman's cote tails cheer him on

1054
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 2: as he bets the Raiders in this one.

1055
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:51,760
Speaker 1: All right, I know we have to watch the Colts tonight,

1056
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 1: but they are going to go on the road regardless

1057
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 1: against the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys eight and three. They

1058
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 1: are nine and a half point home favors in this one.

1059
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 1: Forty three and a half is the number like the

1060
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 1: Colts is plus three thirty five on the money line.

1061
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,720
Speaker 1: This is Sunday Night football fits. I love the Dallas

1062
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:09,399
Speaker 1: Cowboys defense. I think they're clearly the better team here,

1063
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:10,879
Speaker 1: but this nine and a half feels like a big

1064
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:12,919
Speaker 1: number to me. Do you feel the same way?

1065
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:15,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't see much value here.

1066
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 2: I mean, the Cowboys have been good against the number

1067
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 2: this year, seven and three in their last ten and

1068
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 2: four and one against the spread in their last five

1069
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:22,760
Speaker 2: home games.

1070
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 3: But I do think it might.

1071
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 2: Be a little bit too tall now that the Colts

1072
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 2: offense is respectable again with Matt Ryan.

1073
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: All right, what are your thoughts here, Freeman on your

1074
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,320
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys and is nine and a half from the

1075
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 1: early look ahead?

1076
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not really seen much here. I have it

1077
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:41,520
Speaker 4: at eight point seventy five. If I had to better side,

1078
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 4: it feels wrong, but I guess I would be on

1079
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:44,400
Speaker 4: Jeff Saturday.

1080
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 5: But I don't really want to be touching this game

1081
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 5: either way.

1082
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,320
Speaker 1: Things you never thought you would say in twenty twenty

1083
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 1: two for one thousand, I'm right here. I'm on Jeff's

1084
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 1: Saturday side. Who is the coach of the Indianapolis Colts,

1085
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,600
Speaker 1: New Orleans Heads, Tampa? This is it that you want

1086
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 1: to talk about? Super Bowls?

1087
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:03,320
Speaker 5: Here? Fits?

1088
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:06,760
Speaker 1: This is the super Bowl right here for the NFC South.

1089
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 1: Somebody has to win, right right right? Good tie, buddy,

1090
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 1: I mean no, don't say these kinds of things, Freedman.

1091
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 1: It's only gonna make it worse, all right. Here we

1092
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 1: go the Bucks five and six, the New Orleans Saints

1093
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 1: four and eight. The Bucks are six point favorites at home.

1094
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:24,839
Speaker 1: This one forty and a half is the number plus

1095
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 1: two hundred on the New Orleans Saints side of this one, Friedman,

1096
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 1: I know it's the simple answer to just say I

1097
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 1: don't want anything to do with this. I'm walking away.

1098
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 1: It's six too big of a number.

1099
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 5: Here?

1100
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 1: Are we giving the Bucks too much credit?

1101
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 5: Yeah?

1102
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 4: Six is too big and I'm looking at the board

1103
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 4: right here, and lines have started to come down to

1104
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:46,760
Speaker 4: five and a half, And honestly, like I was waiting

1105
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 4: to bet it because I wanted to get your guys

1106
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:51,359
Speaker 4: thoughts on this. I've this projected at four. And it's

1107
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 4: not as if the Buccaneers are bad, but they're not.

1108
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:57,880
Speaker 5: They're not good at this point.

1109
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:01,239
Speaker 4: And the Saints really happened a little bit of kryptonite

1110
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 4: against the Buccaneers in the Tom Brady era. And you

1111
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 4: have Marshaun Lattimore, who you know, practiced limitedly last week

1112
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 4: but practiced every day, and reports are that this is

1113
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 4: the game that he's looking to come back. So if

1114
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:16,799
Speaker 4: Marshaun Lattimore comes back and he does his you know,

1115
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 4: Mike Evans and lost him up, you know, like this

1116
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 4: this is a game that could be really ugly. And

1117
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,320
Speaker 4: I don't think Tampa Bay is the type of team

1118
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 4: right now that's prepared to win an ugly game. But

1119
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 4: the Saints are, like, if they win, they win ugly.

1120
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:34,080
Speaker 5: It fits.

1121
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:36,399
Speaker 1: I'll give you a baseball analogy because I know it'll

1122
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 1: be lost on Friedman, so I'll give it to you.

1123
00:49:38,239 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 1: We're getting into the baseball analogy of the starting pitcher

1124
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 1: who's out there and he's just laboring through five innings.

1125
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,360
Speaker 1: I feel like, you know what was like every the

1126
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 1: thing's a three to two count. You know, foul balls

1127
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 1: is here every single time on the three two count.

1128
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 1: You just can't get anybody out. It's just you're up

1129
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 1: to like one hundred and ten pitches and it's only

1130
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 1: four and two thirds of an eight. That's what the

1131
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 1: Bucks season feels like to me. Is that a decent metaphor?

1132
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 1: And if so, where do you think we're at here

1133
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:03,680
Speaker 1: with these two teams?

1134
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 5: By the way, just gonna say I never I never

1135
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 5: would have gotten that metaphor. It was.

1136
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 4: It was far too sophisticated, and so for you to

1137
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:11,879
Speaker 4: understand what you were saying.

1138
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 1: I just know you don't like baseball, guy, I get so.

1139
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 3: Anyway, Yeah, it does feel that way.

1140
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 2: I mean, their offense has just struggled, and now they

1141
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 2: come into this matchup where Dennis Allen has really kind

1142
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 2: of had Tom Brady's number since he moved into the

1143
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 2: NFC stats and as strange as that is, and then

1144
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 2: the Buccaneers lost Tristan Wurfs yesterday, which is a huge injury.

1145
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 2: So even though the Saints lost that thirteen to nothing

1146
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:46,279
Speaker 2: mud wrestling match and showed nothing next to no life

1147
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 2: on offense yesterday against the forty nine ers. I still

1148
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:51,840
Speaker 2: think this is too big a number. I think it

1149
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 2: should be more like five and I'm leaning under here.

1150
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: All Right, there you have it, so let's get your

1151
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 1: favorite things here before we head out. Fitz, do you

1152
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 1: have your top two or three things here in the

1153
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 1: early look ahead? You see the value you want to

1154
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:07,240
Speaker 1: lock in here for our audience.

1155
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 3: I do show. I like the Ravens against the Broncos.

1156
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 2: I think they're just gonna swab the deck with the

1157
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 2: Broncos this week. I like the Titans getting almost a

1158
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 2: touchdown against the Eagles, good spot like. I love when

1159
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 2: I can get Mike Rabel as kind of a big underdog.

1160
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 3: And I think I like the Commanders as a two point.

1161
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 2: I can't wait to a pose Friedman on this when

1162
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 2: we talk about this game on the Sunday Morning Best

1163
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:36,720
Speaker 2: Bets Show. I like the Commanders minus two at the Giants.

1164
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 1: I'm thinking I have to do like a little money

1165
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 1: line parlay. And I'm not a parlay guy, but maybe

1166
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 1: New Orleans, Vegas and Tennessee. I don't know. That's feeling

1167
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 1: like something for me that could be real fun. Just

1168
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:48,800
Speaker 1: throw ten bucks on it, just watch the world burn.

1169
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 1: I kind of want to do that, Friedman. What are

1170
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 1: your thoughts here on the early week thirteen look ahead

1171
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 1: best bets?

1172
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, So for a side, I am going to say

1173
00:51:57,280 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 4: the Las Vegas Raiders at plus two and a half

1174
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,920
Speaker 4: host the Chargers. That feels like it's a little too

1175
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 4: much there. And then for a total I will say

1176
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:09,320
Speaker 4: it's disgusting to bet the under on something this low,

1177
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 4: but the Broncos and the who are they playing the

1178
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,799
Speaker 4: Ravens under thirty eight and a half, I would bet

1179
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 4: the under on that.

1180
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 1: All Right, there you have it. For more, make sure

1181
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:20,319
Speaker 1: you go to Bettingpros dot com check out all of

1182
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 1: our amazing content, the prop bet cheat sheet, all the

1183
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 1: amazing tools we have and content, and don't forget to

1184
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 1: subscribe to our Betting Pros YouTube channel as well. Click

1185
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 1: that little bell to let goes ding so you have

1186
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 1: all the information you need. Plus we've also got on

1187
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 1: the podcast the live streams from Monday Night Football Thursday

1188
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:39,799
Speaker 1: night Football playoffs are around the corner. Amazing content at

1189
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:41,399
Speaker 1: VP and we want you all to be a part

1190
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:42,919
Speaker 1: of it. That'll do it for us, But the story

1191
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 1: of the game goes on for Matthew Friedman and Pat

1192
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 1: fitz Morris. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.

1193
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 5: Kids,