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Speaker 2: And it is the day after the day in which
Speaker 2: we now know Donald Trump is the president elect. Will
Speaker 2: be the forty seventh president of the United States after
Speaker 2: winning at least two hundred and seventy seven electoral college votes.
Speaker 2: The vote is not all the way in yet, Joe,
Speaker 2: but it is not just an electoral college victory where
Speaker 2: you're looking at, but in all likelihood a popular vote
Speaker 2: victory as well, as we wait the final tally. However,
Speaker 2: we don't have the final tally for the ultimate majority
Speaker 2: in the Senate, as there is still a number of
Speaker 2: races to be called or the majority in the House
Speaker 2: of Representative.
Speaker 3: That's true.
Speaker 4: We do expect to hear from Vice President Kamala Harris
Speaker 4: a little bit later on today. She chose not to
Speaker 4: speak last night, which was an interesting element the optics
Speaker 4: on our election night. She will be speaking at four
Speaker 4: pm Eastern time. Will of course, bring her remarks to you.
Speaker 4: It's unclear to us if she has conceded on a
Speaker 4: personal level to Donald Trump. We haven't heard news of
Speaker 4: a phone call, for instance. But I was struck following
Speaker 4: our coverage at about four o'clock in the morning Eastern time. Here,
Speaker 4: kayleie to see law enforcements around Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue.
Speaker 4: It was clear, even if you were just walking the
Speaker 4: streets of New York that something had changed. The transition
Speaker 4: is underway now, even as we wait for many other
Speaker 4: races to be called, including some key Senate races. We
Speaker 4: want to get into this with Bloomberg's Michael Sheppard, who
Speaker 4: joins us now from our Washington, d C.
Speaker 1: Bureau.
Speaker 4: Shep was up all night with us, and it's great
Speaker 4: to see you.
Speaker 5: Mike.
Speaker 4: Your thoughts as we wait to hear from the Vice president?
Speaker 4: Why are we waiting so long?
Speaker 6: Well, I think one of the reasons for the delay, Joe,
Speaker 6: is just how difficult this is for the Vice president
Speaker 6: and her campaign. This is not the speech they had
Speaker 6: been anticipating in giving. Even yesterday afternoon. Over the weekend,
Speaker 6: the campaign had seen some polls that suggested the race
Speaker 6: might be breaking a little bit more in her direction,
Speaker 6: and of course now we know, based on the results
Speaker 6: that was not the case. It's also going to be
Speaker 6: a challenge for her because you remember that for weeks
Speaker 6: on the campaign trail and on the stump, she was
Speaker 6: warning voters that her opponent, Donald Trump was unfit for office.
Speaker 6: So how she frames this speech conceding to somebody she
Speaker 6: didn't think deserve the presidency will be difficult to do
Speaker 6: and to do graciously as well.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 2: This also may be a speech, Mike, that she wasn't
Speaker 2: prepared to have to give so soon, whether it is
Speaker 2: a concession speech or a victory speech. We thought the
Speaker 2: final result would take a lot longer than it did
Speaker 2: to figure out. Within twenty four hours we knew that
Speaker 2: Donald Trump would be president elect. Can you just talk
Speaker 2: about briefly, how much more efficiently it seems the votes
Speaker 2: were counted, how this election was won. By all accounts,
Speaker 2: it does seem like this was secure, This was safe,
Speaker 2: the democratic system worked.
Speaker 6: Yeah, Kayley, I'm glad you brought that up, because you
Speaker 6: know that for weeks we've been talking in the newsroom,
Speaker 6: and everybody out there observing this election ahead of time
Speaker 6: was anticipating that it would be delayed the way it
Speaker 6: was in twenty twenty. But what we've seen since then
Speaker 6: is state officials and state operations really tightened up their
Speaker 6: game and they tried to prepare to ensure a faster,
Speaker 6: cleaner count that would be much more difficult to challenge,
Speaker 6: and we saw that. Another factor also was that it
Speaker 6: actually ended up being a much wider margin of victory,
Speaker 6: including in some of those battle ground states that ultimately
Speaker 6: handed the presidency.
Speaker 4: Did Donald Trump, well, Michael, I don't know exactly as
Speaker 4: we said what we're going to hear from Vice President
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris a bit later, but we have heard from
Speaker 4: Donald Trump. How did the optics strike you on the
Speaker 4: stage last evening in West Palm Beach, when the likes
Speaker 4: of Dana White joined the former president on the stage
Speaker 4: along with the Speaker of the House. When you consider
Speaker 4: the contrast culturally of what we saw, how does it
Speaker 4: inform your expectations of a Trump two point zero.
Speaker 6: Well, it highlighted the way that the former president has
Speaker 6: built this coalition and he really has tried to cement
Speaker 6: the so called Maga brand in the Republican Party and
Speaker 6: now for good, this victory in the presidential election seals
Speaker 6: it for many years to come, and certainly the House
Speaker 6: Speaker Mike Johnson is someone who is very much part
Speaker 6: of the Trump camp. And the other thing you mentioned,
Speaker 6: of course, was Dana White of the wrestling fame and
Speaker 6: ripping open his shirt on the convention stage in July.
Speaker 6: That points to how he had the former president had
Speaker 6: targeted mail voters very directly. We called it, in a way,
Speaker 6: the bro campaign, and it worked. It helped push his
Speaker 6: numbers with mail voters and including with black men and
Speaker 6: Latino man as they headed to the polls yesterday.
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Michael Sheppard reporting from Washington, DC for us.
Speaker 2: Thank you very much. We appreciate it, and of course
Speaker 2: we have been touching base not only with Mike Shephard
Speaker 2: and the rest of our Bloomberg team throughout this cycle,
Speaker 2: but our next guest as well, Frank Luntz, famed polster
Speaker 2: and founder of fil Inc, is joining us now. Frank,
Speaker 2: thanks for being back with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 2: We have been talking about this entire cycle how tight
Speaker 2: margins were likely to be. Turns out they're not quite
Speaker 2: as tight in most of these battleground states as they
Speaker 2: were in twenty twenty. And I just wonder your takeaway
Speaker 2: here when it comes to whether or not the Poles
Speaker 2: were adequately reflecting the reality in America once again, doesn't
Speaker 2: it seem like Poles underestimated Donald Trump?
Speaker 8: Degree, Yes, and that is about turnout that every Trump
Speaker 8: supporter became a Trump voter. But that is not the
Speaker 8: case with Kamala Harris, and that's one of the reasons
Speaker 8: why she fell short. Certainly, the idea that Trump would
Speaker 8: get a majority of the popular vote.
Speaker 3: Is a surprise to a lot of people right now.
Speaker 8: And is the Iowa poll which I want to draw
Speaker 8: attention to, because that changed the actual narrative of the
Speaker 8: campaign for the last forty eight hours. Trump ended up
Speaker 8: winning Iowa by about a dozen points or so that
Speaker 8: the poll had Harris.
Speaker 3: Up by three.
Speaker 8: It was not only beyond the margin of err it
Speaker 8: actually changed how the race was being covered, which is
Speaker 8: really one of the rare times when survey research actually
Speaker 8: becomes part of the narrative. I think that there's a
Speaker 8: lesson for Americans in the future, which has spent a
Speaker 8: lot less time talking about who's winning and losing and
Speaker 8: a lot more time talking about what the candidates say
Speaker 8: they're going to do, and why either we should believe
Speaker 8: them or distrust them.
Speaker 4: Sounds like people were wrong about a lot, Frank. They
Speaker 4: were wrong about the protesters showing up at the DNC,
Speaker 4: they were wrong about violence around polls, wrong about pole watchers,
Speaker 4: wrong about in some cases even though our polls were tied,
Speaker 4: the idea that there was momentum behind Kamala Harris as well.
Speaker 4: I'm wondering if there's a reckoning here for polsters. Was
Speaker 4: there an overcorrection in the sample? And what's going through
Speaker 4: your mind today?
Speaker 8: What's going through my mind, because I've been asked this
Speaker 8: in almost every show, is this is the media. The
Speaker 8: posters did get it wrong, but the media went all
Speaker 8: over this IOWA survey when all over trying to see
Speaker 8: some trends, some movement in one direction or another, and
Speaker 8: that they're the ones who drove this. I tend not
Speaker 8: to talk about polling when I do shows this. I
Speaker 8: talk about policy, YEP. I talk about language, what the
Speaker 8: public wants to see and hear, and whether the politicians
Speaker 8: are doing it or not. And so much of this
Speaker 8: is actually driven by those who ask the questions rather
Speaker 8: than people like me who answer them, because we won't
Speaker 8: answer them if we weren't asked them. I don't want
Speaker 8: to make a blanket statement because I take this so
Speaker 8: seriously and I so approve of the way your show
Speaker 8: handles politics.
Speaker 3: It's one of the.
Speaker 8: Best shows in all of television for politics. But I
Speaker 8: do think that there needs to be a reckoning for
Speaker 8: what we choose to focus on and how we cover it,
Speaker 8: because in the end it becomes misleading or even detrimental
Speaker 8: to the political process.
Speaker 3: As that IOWA survey clearly.
Speaker 2: Was well Frank, we appreciate the kind words, and of
Speaker 2: course there always is room for critique when we consider
Speaker 2: how the narrative is shaped in America, and media plays
Speaker 2: a role in that as well. I think we can
Speaker 2: all agree. Earlier on in this cycle, there was a
Speaker 2: few conversations that happened in quick succession, one being whether
Speaker 2: or not the media was putting too much focus on
Speaker 2: the age issue for Joe Biden. Then became whether or
Speaker 2: not the media was complicit in covering up how deep
Speaker 2: those issues may have run for the current president. And
Speaker 2: I just wonder as we consider the role of Joe
Speaker 2: Biden in all of this. His late withdrawal from his
Speaker 2: reelection campaign. If ultimately you think that made a difference,
Speaker 2: if the timing mattered, or if it was never going
Speaker 2: to be possible for an incumbent administration given the kind
Speaker 2: of inflation experienced during it, to keep hold of the
Speaker 2: White House.
Speaker 3: Don't I don't believe that.
Speaker 8: I challenged the narrative which has been put forward now
Speaker 8: for weeks. Vice President Harris had one of the sharpest
Speaker 8: fastest rises of any candidate modern history.
Speaker 3: She went from five points down when she.
Speaker 8: Got into the race to three and a half points
Speaker 8: up in a matter of a few weeks. Because she
Speaker 8: was joyful. She talked about the things she wanted to do.
Speaker 8: Instead of the negativity which he decried again and again.
Speaker 8: She was hopeful and optimate and talked about all the
Speaker 8: things that she wanted to get done. But then after
Speaker 8: the convention, she turned dark, she turned negative. It sounded
Speaker 8: as much like a Trump campaign as it did a
Speaker 8: Harris campaign.
Speaker 3: And that was when she hit her ceiling. And then
Speaker 3: she and by changing.
Speaker 8: This by being joyful and then being harshly negative, calling
Speaker 8: a trumpet fascist, voters started to wonder who is she?
Speaker 8: Is she authentic? Is she genuine? How do you go
Speaker 8: from being joyful to damning your opponents. And then Biden,
Speaker 8: of course made the comment about Trump's voters, and it
Speaker 8: just it didn't ring true. That's number one, and number
Speaker 8: two is she never articulated exactly what she wanted to
Speaker 8: do in the first hour, in the first day, first week,
Speaker 8: first month, first one hundred days, and so on. If
Speaker 8: she had done that in the CNN town hall where
Speaker 8: it's done live, if she'd done that in the sixty
Speaker 8: minutes interview or a Fox interview, any of the if
Speaker 8: she had done that and told voters exactly what she
Speaker 8: wanted to do, she would have done much better because
Speaker 8: then she would have been about policy, and that's where
Speaker 8: she was weakest. But instead she got driven around. She
Speaker 8: never answered the questions that voters had, and so she
Speaker 8: never crossed that threshold. Whereas Donald Trump, we knew him,
Speaker 8: There's nothing more we can learn about him. We knew
Speaker 8: his weaknesses, we knew his strengths, we knew his record
Speaker 8: because we saw it for four years. So her criticizing
Speaker 8: him didn't add anything to her, did not detract from him,
Speaker 8: And I think that that's one of the reasons why
Speaker 8: she lost.
Speaker 4: The diagnosis from Frank LUNs on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 4: All of that said, Frank, what did we learn about
Speaker 4: our nation last night, particularly if this in fact was
Speaker 4: about men versus women?
Speaker 8: I love that question, and that's a question that we
Speaker 8: need to be talking about over the coming weeks and months,
Speaker 8: because there are some things that are more important than
Speaker 8: an election. It's the next generation. And what are they learning.
Speaker 8: They're learning that it's okay to tear your opponent apart.
Speaker 8: They're learning that there is no bounds to negativity, that
Speaker 8: there are right and wrong ways. But they need to
Speaker 8: learn that they're right and wrong ways to approach politics,
Speaker 8: to approach economics.
Speaker 3: To approach day to day life.
Speaker 8: And I'm just afraid that what we now learned is
Speaker 8: the wrong thing, which is anything goes at any time
Speaker 8: for any reason, and that frightens me for the future.
Speaker 2: Well, okay, so if we keep looking at demographics here
Speaker 2: and what the future may hold, Frank, I look at
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's victory in Miami Dade last night. We haven't
Speaker 2: seen a Republican win that county for decades. It obviously
Speaker 2: is majority Hispanic. We did see a sizable break among
Speaker 2: Latinos for Donald Trump. In a way we haven't seen
Speaker 2: in the past. Obviously, movement for black voters as well.
Speaker 2: And I wonder if you think those demographic shifts are
Speaker 2: unique to this candidate who is now president elect, or
Speaker 2: if that may be something more permanent.
Speaker 8: It's unique to this candidate, but also to this time
Speaker 8: that it doesn't matter whether your white, black, brown.
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter if you have trouble.
Speaker 8: Affording food to put food on your table, to put
Speaker 8: gas in your car, or the healthcare you need and
Speaker 8: the housing that you want, then it doesn't matter what
Speaker 8: your ethnicity is. What matters is you're struggling your living
Speaker 8: paycheck to paycheck, and that's what's happening right now. And
Speaker 8: Donald Trump articulated an empathy to that much more explicitly
Speaker 8: than Harris did. She tried to run away from it.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 8: Trump's greatest weakness is he didn't focus enough on prices,
Speaker 8: on costs, on affordability that instead he got sidetracked by
Speaker 8: issues that did not matter. And in fact, I want
Speaker 8: to acknowledge something, I'm going to go back to that
Speaker 8: presidential debate that clearly she did relatively well and he
Speaker 8: did relatively poorly.
Speaker 3: In the end, it did not matter.
Speaker 8: I thought the debate performance would cost him his candidacy,
Speaker 8: and instead it actually did not matter. And that's another
Speaker 8: learning that America pass to face and even when you
Speaker 8: put two candidates side by side, the outcome does not
Speaker 8: necessarily matter and who wins for president.
Speaker 4: Really great to have you back, Frank Frank Luntz, founder
Speaker 4: CEO FI L and just the voice we were looking
Speaker 4: to hear today. Thanks for being with us throughout this
Speaker 4: entire campaign. Here on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 4: Donald Trump had any number of economic policy proposals that
Speaker 4: we've talked about over the past couple of months that
Speaker 4: brought us to this point. Here's a taste.
Speaker 5: What I'm going to do is something that nobody has
Speaker 5: ever even thought about doing.
Speaker 3: No tax on tips.
Speaker 5: As part of our additional tax cuts, we will end
Speaker 5: all taxes on overtime. I want to cut taxes on
Speaker 5: Americans while putting tariffs on China and foreign countries.
Speaker 3: To bring our jobs back home.
Speaker 5: My plan is to make the Trump tax cuts permanent.
Speaker 5: They are massive tax cuts, biggest ever permanent.
Speaker 3: And to cut taxes even more. A reduction in the
Speaker 3: corporate tax rate.
Speaker 5: From twenty one percent to fifteen percent. No tax on
Speaker 5: social security benefits.
Speaker 6: Restoring the salt deduction, saving.
Speaker 5: Thousands of dollars for residents of New York, Pennsylvania, New.
Speaker 6: Jersey, and other high cost states.
Speaker 5: As part of our tax cuts, we will make interest
Speaker 5: on car loans fully deductible.
Speaker 4: And joining us now. Joe Lavornia, chief economist with SMBC
Speaker 4: Nico Securities America, the former chief economist the White House
Speaker 4: National Economic Council in the first Trump administration. Nice to
Speaker 4: see you at the table. I bet you've been up
Speaker 4: all night.
Speaker 7: I can only imagine a lot of you. Thank you
Speaker 7: for having me. I was on earlier in the week
Speaker 7: sitting over there absolutely well.
Speaker 3: Nice.
Speaker 4: Do you know this table very well? And you've been
Speaker 4: generous with your time over the course of this cycle.
Speaker 4: We've got a lot of questions for you here, beginning
Speaker 4: with this market reaction. This is a monster move. To
Speaker 4: see a day in which the dows up over one
Speaker 4: thousand points. The S and P five hundred is up
Speaker 4: some supercent, but the bond market is moving in the
Speaker 4: other direction. We're looking at a four or five here
Speaker 4: as of this moment on the ten year. What do
Speaker 4: you make specifically of the reaction in the bond market.
Speaker 4: This is clearly an anticipation of some sort of inflationary event.
Speaker 7: Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 9: I when I was talking with investors and clients as
Speaker 9: I do that's most of my day job, this simple
Speaker 9: question is what happens if Harris wins?
Speaker 7: What happens if Trump wins?
Speaker 9: And my initial read very simplistic terms, was Harris bad
Speaker 9: for equities, good for bonds. Trump good for equities, bad
Speaker 9: for bonds. And that related to the fact on where
Speaker 9: I see growth and also how the market initially would
Speaker 9: react to things. So, for ext with Trump, equities are
Speaker 9: up because the market's more excited about growth, lower tax rates,
Speaker 9: less regulation, et cetera. But the bond market gets worried
Speaker 9: about more spending, tax cuts, et cetera. And like the
Speaker 9: CBO for example, they're going to initially probably score a
Speaker 9: Trump budget as being you know, more deficit related spending,
Speaker 9: the Tax Foundation found that the problem with it is
Speaker 9: that we don't know the specifics yet. And I'd argue,
Speaker 9: if you look back at the Tax Cuts and Jobs
Speaker 9: Act of twenty seventeen, and you see what CBO scored
Speaker 9: the revenue numbers in sixteen, we actually got the money
Speaker 9: in eighteen. In other words, the tax cut paid for itself.
Speaker 9: So I think these are, you know, knee jerk reactions,
Speaker 9: and then we'll see what happens once we get some
Speaker 9: meat to the bone.
Speaker 2: Well, so as you consider the timeline you just said,
Speaker 2: they're knowing that there was eight trillion dollars in deficit
Speaker 2: added during the first Trump administration. The Committee for Responsible
Speaker 2: Budget says it could be another fifteen trillion dollars if
Speaker 2: not all of it pays for itself. But it is
Speaker 2: a question of time, especially knowing these markets are discounting mechanisms,
Speaker 2: they are looking well ahead. So when we consider sequencing
Speaker 2: here things like tariffs that could potentially hit the economy
Speaker 2: first before the actual beneficiary impacts of lower taxes is
Speaker 2: fully felt and recognized, and corporate profits and the like, Right,
Speaker 2: how should we think about the way in which this
Speaker 2: plays out?
Speaker 10: Right?
Speaker 9: So the europeolutely right, marcuts are forward looking, and they
Speaker 9: may fear or they could think that, okay, tariffs are inflationary,
Speaker 9: it's a one off price adjustment. But again it would
Speaker 9: be how are the tariffs implemented and what would the
Speaker 9: US be getting in return. I think there's this misperception
Speaker 9: that day one of Trump, We're going to have tariffs
Speaker 9: across the board x percent, and this is my guess,
Speaker 9: and in China's gonna be at least sixty percent, maybe higher.
Speaker 9: To me, it's going to be more nuanced. It's going
Speaker 9: to be very transactional. In other words, terifts are going
Speaker 9: to be used in large part as a tool to
Speaker 9: essentially have more fair trade. So, for example, the US
Speaker 9: has certain environmental regulations and certain rules against child labor.
Speaker 9: Some of our trading partners don't have those same rules,
Speaker 9: and we're at a disadvantage. So to extend tariffs can
Speaker 9: level the playing field and make trade fair. I think
Speaker 9: that makes sense. Also, it would depend too, what happens
Speaker 9: with energy policy. If we have a significant amount of
Speaker 9: drilling and energy production, that will offset the tariffs, even
Speaker 9: if the tariffs, for argument's sake, we're implemented across the board.
Speaker 9: The energy share of the economy is bigger than the
Speaker 9: import share of the economy, So it really depends how
Speaker 9: it's going to be put into place. And I always
Speaker 9: tell people look at things the broad policy set, like,
Speaker 9: don't focus just on the tariffs, don't focus just on
Speaker 9: the tax cuts, look at the holistic approach in terms
Speaker 9: of trying to increase productive capacity.
Speaker 7: I guess a.
Speaker 2: Simpler way though of asking my question would be are
Speaker 2: we likely to feel the inflation before we feel the growth?
Speaker 7: No? I don't believe so.
Speaker 9: I don't believe so because if energy prices stay low,
Speaker 9: that will immediately hit people's pocketbooks in a positive way.
Speaker 9: Prices will come down. The general rule of thumb is
Speaker 9: every one penny change in gasoline is worth about a
Speaker 9: billion in terms of an energy tax cut.
Speaker 7: So if you get prices down, fifty.
Speaker 9: Cents may not seem like a lot, but in a
Speaker 9: twenty five trillion dollar economy, that's basically like a fifty
Speaker 9: billion dollar tax cut immediately.
Speaker 4: What do you make of the moves of these the
Speaker 4: banks today? This is wild Golden sacks up thirteen percent
Speaker 4: right now. I could go down a long list of them.
Speaker 4: Is basil three dead if it wasn't already.
Speaker 9: I think Basil three is dead or like in The
Speaker 9: Princess Bride, it's mostly dead.
Speaker 7: Yeah, but look, the financials are is it a great movie?
Speaker 9: The financials are essentially a high data on the economy.
Speaker 9: So if you believe, and again I'm trying to be
Speaker 9: objective here, if you're looking at the equity market, the
Speaker 9: equity market's up on the expectation of stronger growth, and
Speaker 9: the financials are a high data to GDP. So if
Speaker 9: we sustain three percent GDP or higher and inflation does
Speaker 9: moderate as I think it will, then you know the
Speaker 9: banks are dealing what you're supposed to do well.
Speaker 2: So as we consider potential policy here and regulation, We've
Speaker 2: talked with you before, Joe about some of the other
Speaker 2: policy ideas that have been put forward, like on immigration,
Speaker 2: for example, the ideas that around mass deportation and the
Speaker 2: economic impact it ultimately could have if millions of people
Speaker 2: who are contributing to the labor force right now, who
Speaker 2: are paying into things like social security, were to leave
Speaker 2: the country, how should we be gaming that out, and
Speaker 2: the realism of trying to get that many people out
Speaker 2: of the country in an expeditious manner.
Speaker 9: Joel of Warren, Your private citizen doesn't expect mass deportation.
Speaker 3: Okay.
Speaker 9: My strong sense and gut instinct is that we're going
Speaker 9: to enforce the laws. We're going to make sure the
Speaker 9: administration will make sure that there is more legal immigration
Speaker 9: that comes through. However, there are a lot of potential
Speaker 9: bad actors, as we know, not to get into details
Speaker 9: that need to be removed, and I think law enforcement
Speaker 9: will do so, but I do not personally.
Speaker 7: This is me Joel of.
Speaker 9: Warren is speaking, do not expect mass deportation. The other
Speaker 9: factor I want to mention is that if you look
Speaker 9: at labor force participation, we're about three quarters of a
Speaker 9: point below where we were pre COVID. That's over a
Speaker 9: million workers. So if the economy can grow and we
Speaker 9: can get labor force participation to rise further, that would
Speaker 9: offset any modest effect that we may not be getting
Speaker 9: through immigration and will clearly be benefiting the US workers
Speaker 9: that are here.
Speaker 4: This would be a very different FTC than we have
Speaker 4: right now. And I mentioned Goldman earlier. I'm thinking IPOs,
Speaker 4: I'm thinking.
Speaker 1: Mergers and acquisitions.
Speaker 4: Is that what we mean when we say animal spirits?
Speaker 7: Yeah? Animal spirits a confidence in the outlook.
Speaker 4: Yeah, what's the M and A situation going to look
Speaker 4: like in Trump's two point.
Speaker 9: Zero Well, certainly there will be much more M and
Speaker 9: A activity.
Speaker 7: Look, I don't think to me, it's going to be
Speaker 7: more entrepreneurial.
Speaker 9: I mean I always would tell people when I highlighted
Speaker 9: this when I was in the administration, if you look
Speaker 9: at the small business sentiment, it was the highest under
Speaker 9: President Trump's in any administration. So there is I think
Speaker 9: a dynamism and an animal spirit that is reflective in
Speaker 9: an entrepreneurialism, a type of role, and that is going
Speaker 9: to be I think beneficial to activity that allows people
Speaker 9: to trade act and by the way.
Speaker 7: Onlike tariffs and things like that.
Speaker 9: This sounds pretty basic, is I don't think this is insightful.
Speaker 9: But President Trump's a business man, and I think you
Speaker 9: have to look at the transactional nature of how he
Speaker 9: approaches things. And there was a great quote from a
Speaker 9: reporter of the Pittsburgh Is that I believe eight years
Speaker 9: ago said don't take President Trump literally, but take them seriously.
Speaker 9: And I find too often we get caught up in
Speaker 9: the rhetoric and get caught up in things that divide
Speaker 9: us I don't really believe that to be the case
Speaker 9: in the second term, at least I.
Speaker 2: Hope as we consider entrepreneurialism being able to jumpstart things,
Speaker 2: we have to look at the cost of capital. And
Speaker 2: that brings me to something that's coming up tomorrow, as
Speaker 2: if we all haven't had enough this week, a Federal
Speaker 2: Reserve decision. They're expected to cut twenty five basis points.
Speaker 2: The market is now pricing in fewer cuts over the
Speaker 2: course of the next year, Joe, in part maybe due
Speaker 2: to the outcome of this election.
Speaker 7: What do you think about that? No question, the market
Speaker 7: is expecting faster growth.
Speaker 9: I think it's perhaps incorrectly expecting inflation is going to
Speaker 9: be higher, but it's expecting faster growth and then less inflation.
Speaker 9: And because the president's going to try to make per
Speaker 9: and I think he will the tax cuts some Jobs
Speaker 9: Act of twenty seventeen, there's no big tax hike coming
Speaker 9: in twenty six and therefore there's no fiscal cliff, which
Speaker 9: means there's less pressure on the Fed to cut. So
Speaker 9: I think initially the Fed will probably cut less. They'll
Speaker 9: cut twenty five tomorrow, and to me, December is probably
Speaker 9: a pause, and then we'll reevaluate and we'll see you
Speaker 9: know where the personnel is in the Trump administration and
Speaker 9: what policies are are advocated.
Speaker 7: Because right now this is still guesswork.
Speaker 4: Pretty interesting to consider what will happen over the course
Speaker 4: of the next month. Your phone's going to be ringing.
Speaker 4: What job would you want in a Trump administration?
Speaker 7: Again, I said this the other day.
Speaker 9: I said, look, I'm very happy where I am and
Speaker 9: being honored to serve, and we'll just play it by year.
Speaker 7: We'll see.
Speaker 9: I really, I mean, I love the markets, I love
Speaker 9: coming on, like having a nice conversation with you guys,
Speaker 9: and certainly if the President called, I would be hard
Speaker 9: to say no. But right now I'm happy and we'll
Speaker 9: see what happens.
Speaker 7: You know, I feel like, you know, I like to
Speaker 7: think I've got some options. But we'll say they.
Speaker 4: See you on the North one points soon, hopefully not
Speaker 4: cut well.
Speaker 2: I want to say it, thank you either way, always
Speaker 2: welcome you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We appreciate
Speaker 2: you joining us. On this day after the election, Joe Lavornie,
Speaker 2: of course, formerly of the Trump White House, now at
Speaker 2: SMBCNCO Securities. On this day after the election, a day
Speaker 2: in which markets are ripping the S and P five
Speaker 2: hundred at a fresh record high in the bond market
Speaker 2: seeing big news with a tenure yield up seventeen basis points.
Speaker 2: We'll have more ahead on the markets and the politics
Speaker 2: with our political panel next on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on amocr Play and
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Speaker 4: They are still counting votes. We still have some important
Speaker 4: Senate races to be called here, Kaylee, but the transition
Speaker 4: on the presidential level has already begun. Donald Trump is
Speaker 4: now officially the president elects.
Speaker 2: YEP, having won two hundred and seventy seven Electoral College
Speaker 2: votes at this point, but it is expected he could
Speaker 2: win many more than that. For all of our months
Speaker 2: of discussion about how this race was incredibly tight going
Speaker 2: to be decided by very closed margins, the margins Donald
Speaker 2: Trump was able to put up over the last twenty
Speaker 2: four hours have been pretty remarkable, adding to what he
Speaker 2: experienced in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. And it's not
Speaker 2: just the electoral college we're watching here, but the popular vote,
Speaker 2: which he is currently winning by roughly five million votes.
Speaker 2: He did not get the popular vote in the first
Speaker 2: two cycles.
Speaker 4: He ran in defying most predictions that we described here
Speaker 4: on the air, talking to various pollsters who do this
Speaker 4: for a living confounding us to the point where it's
Speaker 4: now being called a red wave, or, as Romaine Bostik
Speaker 4: called it from Detroit, a red wake up call. Things
Speaker 4: went late into the night. You probably didn't get much
Speaker 4: sleep yourself. The whole nation is bleary eyed this morning. J. D.
Speaker 4: Vance got up to the podium while Donald Trump was
Speaker 4: delivering his victory speech last night in West Palm Beach.
Speaker 3: Let's listen.
Speaker 11: Well, mister President, I appreciate you allowing me to join
Speaker 11: you on this incredible journey. I thank you for the
Speaker 11: trust that you have placed in me, and I think
Speaker 11: that we just winn us the greatest political comeback in
Speaker 11: the history of the United States of America.
Speaker 2: Joining us now for more our political panel, democratic strategist
Speaker 2: and partner at Rock Solutions Kristin Hahn, alongside Republican strategist
Speaker 2: and West Front strategies principle. Ashley Davis, thank you both
Speaker 2: for being with us on this day. After Ashley, just
Speaker 2: to begin with you, jd. Vance calls it the greatest
Speaker 2: political comeback in the history of the United States. And
Speaker 2: he is not alone in characterizing this in that way.
Speaker 2: After a loss in twenty twenty After January sixth, twenty
Speaker 2: twenty one, Donald Trump is going to be the forty
Speaker 2: seventh president of the United States. What does it say
Speaker 2: to you?
Speaker 12: He's also going to be a very decisive president of
Speaker 12: the United States. I mean, the win, which I think
Speaker 12: is probably good or bad, is good for the country
Speaker 12: in regards to there's no question about who won. And
Speaker 12: that's really not a political statement. I would say the
Speaker 12: same thing if Kamala would have won. The fact that
Speaker 12: it's not hanging on Chad's or anything else is a
Speaker 12: good sign. But yeah, it is a huge political comeback.
Speaker 12: I mean, who would have thought how many times was
Speaker 12: he indicted? How many times has he been convicted? On
Speaker 12: thirty four and indicted more? Yeah, And so I mean
Speaker 12: just the fact that he was able to do this
Speaker 12: and come back. I actually think it shows one how
Speaker 12: he does talk and resonate with parts of this country
Speaker 12: that a lot of us don't talk to every day,
Speaker 12: and also just how upset the country was. And I
Speaker 12: think that's what shows and I think that we a
Speaker 12: collective we probably need to take a look at the
Speaker 12: people that have spoken about how unhappy they are and
Speaker 12: want them change in our country.
Speaker 4: Kristin Harne, a lot of Democrats are feeling bruised this
Speaker 4: day after. It's not just the presidency, it's Congress. You
Speaker 4: spent quite a good amount of time on Capitol Hill
Speaker 4: as a blue dog Democrat. How do you see this today?
Speaker 10: I think there you've already seen kind of the blame game,
Speaker 10: starting the finger pointing.
Speaker 7: I think I think, you.
Speaker 10: Know, as Democrats, we need to take a look like
Speaker 10: what Ashley said, why were the people not happy? What
Speaker 10: are we talking to them about? How are we talking
Speaker 10: to them? And really think about that. You know, this
Speaker 10: automatic some of the talking points I've seen out there
Speaker 10: from some Democrats saying, you know, we just had didn't
Speaker 10: lean into the progressive the liberal side enough, I think
Speaker 10: is the wrong lesson to take from this. There were
Speaker 10: no more votes to be be got from there. We
Speaker 10: need to think about how we are are listening and
Speaker 10: talking to the American people all across the country. I
Speaker 10: think there was a lot of fear mongering, you know.
Speaker 10: I think that there was a lot of misinformation out there,
Speaker 10: and I think it'll take us months, if not yours,
Speaker 10: to figure out what, you know, what we need to do,
Speaker 10: particularly heading into the midterms.
Speaker 2: Well, and I wonder how you're reacting to the demographic
Speaker 2: breakdown we've seen an exit polse Kristin. It's looking like
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris, who would have been the first female president
Speaker 2: in the United States if she had one, is going
Speaker 2: to win fewer female vote votes than Joe Biden did
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. For all of the talk about momentum
Speaker 2: among women, what does that say to you?
Speaker 10: Well, I mean I think there's also like she had,
Speaker 10: you know, one of the shortest runs for the presidency,
Speaker 10: and I think that probably hampered her ability to really
Speaker 10: define herself beyond you know, Joe Biden. I think also,
Speaker 10: you know, we were fresh off of four years with
Speaker 10: President Trump and people were sick of it and they
Speaker 10: voted that way. So I think it's not necessarily her.
Speaker 10: I think it was you know, you look at the
Speaker 10: you know, what's happening at the time, and when it's happening.
Speaker 10: And I unfortunately think that we're going to get two
Speaker 10: years with the mid terms and four years down the road,
Speaker 10: and people are going to be reminded of how exhausted
Speaker 10: they are with having to wake up and listen to
Speaker 10: President Trump every day.
Speaker 4: See your thoughts on the gen battle. This had really
Speaker 4: devolved into a men versus women election, we were told,
Speaker 4: and a lot of Democrats are asking today, a lot
Speaker 4: of women are asking why is America not capable of
Speaker 4: getting its arms around this idea of electing a female president.
Speaker 12: I wish I knew, because I mean, I obviously believe
Speaker 12: in that a lot. I actually think though that what
Speaker 12: people thought was going to get her across the finish line, though,
Speaker 12: was the abortion issue or the dods rolling. And I
Speaker 12: think what happened, and obviously there's going to be days
Speaker 12: to come which we can look at this data, but
Speaker 12: it looks like many women, even in the suburban areas,
Speaker 12: cared more about security, the border, the economy than they
Speaker 12: even did kind of these rights. And also, I do
Speaker 12: believe the American people, as a pro choice Republican understand
Speaker 12: that now this is in the States, right, I mean,
Speaker 12: I don't think that people are The rhetoric that went
Speaker 12: around about the dab's decision, how no one's ever going
Speaker 12: to be able to have, you know, female rights, is
Speaker 12: just not correct, and so I think people aren't believing
Speaker 12: that message. I think the biggest, the biggest demographic that
Speaker 12: came out of yesterday is one in theory of color
Speaker 12: voters voted for Trump. I mean, that's not that was
Speaker 12: high in two thousand and four when Bush one reelect,
Speaker 12: but it hasn't been that high since. And I think
Speaker 12: that that's pretty it's remarkable.
Speaker 3: It's all remarkable.
Speaker 4: We should remind our audience as well. You did support
Speaker 4: a woman for president. You were a Nicki Haley supporter
Speaker 4: at the beginning of this campaign. Is there a place
Speaker 4: for you in this party?
Speaker 7: Listen? I don't.
Speaker 12: I'm just like her. I mean, I'm a conservative. I
Speaker 12: believe in conservative autism in regards to financial conservative. I'm
Speaker 12: very socially liberal. But I do believe in Republican policies.
Speaker 12: And so at the end of the day, am I
Speaker 12: happy that there's a Republican Senate? Absolutely? Would I do.
Speaker 12: I not believe in some of Kamala Harris's policies, absolutely,
Speaker 12: but I do believe in a woman becoming president. Obviously
Speaker 12: that's not going to happen. But I at the end
Speaker 12: of the day, I'm a Republican. I'm going to support
Speaker 12: Republicans well.
Speaker 2: As Ashley raises the Senate, Kristen, we already know that
Speaker 2: the Senate has gone for the Democrats. It has been flipped.
Speaker 2: The question now is the margin, and the bigger question
Speaker 2: is the House. What races will you be watching that
Speaker 2: have yet to be called?
Speaker 10: You know, I'm watching a lot of races where people
Speaker 10: are doing well. You know, Jim costin California always does well.
Speaker 10: You know Henry koyar one in Texas, which is great.
Speaker 10: You know, you look at people who are really strong,
Speaker 10: like Mary Peltola out in Alaska, who you know, Lisa
Speaker 10: Murkowski said she wanted her to be back in the House.
Speaker 10: So races like those, I think, you know, there are
Speaker 10: a number of them that were flipped last night. It'll
Speaker 10: be several days, if not weeks, before we know who
Speaker 10: has control of the House. But I think at the
Speaker 10: end of the day, as a House person, you know
Speaker 10: those members and those candidates who really know their districts
Speaker 10: and really speak to the voter voters on a local
Speaker 10: level will be the ones who who ultimately pull out
Speaker 10: the win here. And for Democrats, obviously control the House
Speaker 10: is really important so that we don't have Donald Trump
Speaker 10: as president completely unchecked in his power.
Speaker 4: You know what, the loudest question I'm hearing from Democrats
Speaker 4: today is Kristin Hahn, what would have happened if she
Speaker 4: picked Josh Shapiro.
Speaker 10: I'm not sure would have made that much of a difference. Honestly,
Speaker 10: I think we had a really strong team and a
Speaker 10: strong vice presidential candidate and Tim Waltz, So, you know,
Speaker 10: I think that the you know, any conversations within my
Speaker 10: party about what if is not productive At this point.
Speaker 10: We need to all be sitting down at the table
Speaker 10: and being like, what happened here and what do we
Speaker 10: need to do differently?
Speaker 2: Well, and then there's the question of what happens next
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and JD.
Speaker 12: Vance.
Speaker 2: We know Ashley, but who is likely to be in
Speaker 2: this cabinet? Is this transition gets underway.
Speaker 12: I think you'll see a lot of governors. I mean,
Speaker 12: you'll see a lot of senators, especially if the Senate
Speaker 12: does end up being fifty four. Republicans say, obviously Cormick's
Speaker 12: very close to winning and you know, in Pennsylvania and
Speaker 12: maybe Nevada or maybe not. We'll see, but I think
Speaker 12: that those are going to be easy to confirm. And
Speaker 12: I also think that it gives you a little bit
Speaker 12: of room to have a vacancy in regards to other
Speaker 12: votes if the Senators are going up for some sort
Speaker 12: of confirmation, I don't think if the numbers stay this
Speaker 12: close one way or the other. And going back to
Speaker 12: Kristen's comment, I think there's really we're down to like
Speaker 12: nine races in the House from what I understand about,
Speaker 12: you know what's going to happen, and I think no
Speaker 12: matter what happens, it's going to be very close. But
Speaker 12: you can't take very many House members out of no matter,
Speaker 12: you know, if you're a Republican unless we're in the minority.
Speaker 12: I think you see at least a Phonica somewhere interesting.
Speaker 2: She wants what you an ambassador?
Speaker 3: That sounds right.
Speaker 4: Nice to have you in New York today.
Speaker 3: We're lucky.
Speaker 4: Ashley Davis with us of course, and Kristen Hahn are
Speaker 4: paneled today on Balance of Power the day after the race.
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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