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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then Broud Auto with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: And it is the day after the day in which

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Speaker 2: we now know Donald Trump is the president elect. Will

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Speaker 2: be the forty seventh president of the United States after

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Speaker 2: winning at least two hundred and seventy seven electoral college votes.

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Speaker 2: The vote is not all the way in yet, Joe,

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Speaker 2: but it is not just an electoral college victory where

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Speaker 2: you're looking at, but in all likelihood a popular vote

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Speaker 2: victory as well, as we wait the final tally. However,

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Speaker 2: we don't have the final tally for the ultimate majority

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Speaker 2: in the Senate, as there is still a number of

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Speaker 2: races to be called or the majority in the House

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Speaker 2: of Representative.

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Speaker 3: That's true.

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Speaker 4: We do expect to hear from Vice President Kamala Harris

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Speaker 4: a little bit later on today. She chose not to

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Speaker 4: speak last night, which was an interesting element the optics

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Speaker 4: on our election night. She will be speaking at four

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Speaker 4: pm Eastern time. Will of course, bring her remarks to you.

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Speaker 4: It's unclear to us if she has conceded on a

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Speaker 4: personal level to Donald Trump. We haven't heard news of

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Speaker 4: a phone call, for instance. But I was struck following

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Speaker 4: our coverage at about four o'clock in the morning Eastern time. Here,

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Speaker 4: kayleie to see law enforcements around Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue.

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Speaker 4: It was clear, even if you were just walking the

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Speaker 4: streets of New York that something had changed. The transition

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Speaker 4: is underway now, even as we wait for many other

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Speaker 4: races to be called, including some key Senate races. We

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Speaker 4: want to get into this with Bloomberg's Michael Sheppard, who

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Speaker 4: joins us now from our Washington, d C.

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Speaker 1: Bureau.

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Speaker 4: Shep was up all night with us, and it's great

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Speaker 4: to see you.

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Speaker 5: Mike.

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Speaker 4: Your thoughts as we wait to hear from the Vice president?

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Speaker 4: Why are we waiting so long?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think one of the reasons for the delay, Joe,

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Speaker 6: is just how difficult this is for the Vice president

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Speaker 6: and her campaign. This is not the speech they had

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Speaker 6: been anticipating in giving. Even yesterday afternoon. Over the weekend,

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Speaker 6: the campaign had seen some polls that suggested the race

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Speaker 6: might be breaking a little bit more in her direction,

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Speaker 6: and of course now we know, based on the results

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Speaker 6: that was not the case. It's also going to be

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Speaker 6: a challenge for her because you remember that for weeks

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Speaker 6: on the campaign trail and on the stump, she was

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Speaker 6: warning voters that her opponent, Donald Trump was unfit for office.

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Speaker 6: So how she frames this speech conceding to somebody she

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Speaker 6: didn't think deserve the presidency will be difficult to do

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Speaker 6: and to do graciously as well.

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Speaker 7: Well.

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Speaker 2: This also may be a speech, Mike, that she wasn't

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Speaker 2: prepared to have to give so soon, whether it is

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Speaker 2: a concession speech or a victory speech. We thought the

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Speaker 2: final result would take a lot longer than it did

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Speaker 2: to figure out. Within twenty four hours we knew that

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump would be president elect. Can you just talk

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Speaker 2: about briefly, how much more efficiently it seems the votes

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Speaker 2: were counted, how this election was won. By all accounts,

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Speaker 2: it does seem like this was secure, This was safe,

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Speaker 2: the democratic system worked.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Kayley, I'm glad you brought that up, because you

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Speaker 6: know that for weeks we've been talking in the newsroom,

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Speaker 6: and everybody out there observing this election ahead of time

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Speaker 6: was anticipating that it would be delayed the way it

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Speaker 6: was in twenty twenty. But what we've seen since then

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Speaker 6: is state officials and state operations really tightened up their

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Speaker 6: game and they tried to prepare to ensure a faster,

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Speaker 6: cleaner count that would be much more difficult to challenge,

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Speaker 6: and we saw that. Another factor also was that it

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Speaker 6: actually ended up being a much wider margin of victory,

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Speaker 6: including in some of those battle ground states that ultimately

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Speaker 6: handed the presidency.

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Speaker 4: Did Donald Trump, well, Michael, I don't know exactly as

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Speaker 4: we said what we're going to hear from Vice President

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Speaker 4: Kamala Harris a bit later, but we have heard from

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump. How did the optics strike you on the

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Speaker 4: stage last evening in West Palm Beach, when the likes

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Speaker 4: of Dana White joined the former president on the stage

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Speaker 4: along with the Speaker of the House. When you consider

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Speaker 4: the contrast culturally of what we saw, how does it

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Speaker 4: inform your expectations of a Trump two point zero.

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Speaker 6: Well, it highlighted the way that the former president has

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Speaker 6: built this coalition and he really has tried to cement

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Speaker 6: the so called Maga brand in the Republican Party and

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Speaker 6: now for good, this victory in the presidential election seals

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Speaker 6: it for many years to come, and certainly the House

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Speaker 6: Speaker Mike Johnson is someone who is very much part

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Speaker 6: of the Trump camp. And the other thing you mentioned,

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Speaker 6: of course, was Dana White of the wrestling fame and

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Speaker 6: ripping open his shirt on the convention stage in July.

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Speaker 6: That points to how he had the former president had

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Speaker 6: targeted mail voters very directly. We called it, in a way,

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Speaker 6: the bro campaign, and it worked. It helped push his

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Speaker 6: numbers with mail voters and including with black men and

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Speaker 6: Latino man as they headed to the polls yesterday.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Michael Sheppard reporting from Washington, DC for us.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much. We appreciate it, and of course

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Speaker 2: we have been touching base not only with Mike Shephard

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Speaker 2: and the rest of our Bloomberg team throughout this cycle,

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Speaker 2: but our next guest as well, Frank Luntz, famed polster

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Speaker 2: and founder of fil Inc, is joining us now. Frank,

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Speaker 2: thanks for being back with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.

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Speaker 2: We have been talking about this entire cycle how tight

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Speaker 2: margins were likely to be. Turns out they're not quite

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Speaker 2: as tight in most of these battleground states as they

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Speaker 2: were in twenty twenty. And I just wonder your takeaway

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Speaker 2: here when it comes to whether or not the Poles

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Speaker 2: were adequately reflecting the reality in America once again, doesn't

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Speaker 2: it seem like Poles underestimated Donald Trump?

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Speaker 8: Degree, Yes, and that is about turnout that every Trump

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Speaker 8: supporter became a Trump voter. But that is not the

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Speaker 8: case with Kamala Harris, and that's one of the reasons

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Speaker 8: why she fell short. Certainly, the idea that Trump would

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Speaker 8: get a majority of the popular vote.

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Speaker 3: Is a surprise to a lot of people right now.

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Speaker 8: And is the Iowa poll which I want to draw

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Speaker 8: attention to, because that changed the actual narrative of the

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Speaker 8: campaign for the last forty eight hours. Trump ended up

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Speaker 8: winning Iowa by about a dozen points or so that

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Speaker 8: the poll had Harris.

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Speaker 3: Up by three.

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Speaker 8: It was not only beyond the margin of err it

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Speaker 8: actually changed how the race was being covered, which is

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Speaker 8: really one of the rare times when survey research actually

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Speaker 8: becomes part of the narrative. I think that there's a

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Speaker 8: lesson for Americans in the future, which has spent a

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Speaker 8: lot less time talking about who's winning and losing and

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Speaker 8: a lot more time talking about what the candidates say

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Speaker 8: they're going to do, and why either we should believe

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Speaker 8: them or distrust them.

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Speaker 4: Sounds like people were wrong about a lot, Frank. They

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Speaker 4: were wrong about the protesters showing up at the DNC,

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Speaker 4: they were wrong about violence around polls, wrong about pole watchers,

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Speaker 4: wrong about in some cases even though our polls were tied,

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Speaker 4: the idea that there was momentum behind Kamala Harris as well.

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Speaker 4: I'm wondering if there's a reckoning here for polsters. Was

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Speaker 4: there an overcorrection in the sample? And what's going through

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Speaker 4: your mind today?

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Speaker 8: What's going through my mind, because I've been asked this

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Speaker 8: in almost every show, is this is the media. The

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Speaker 8: posters did get it wrong, but the media went all

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Speaker 8: over this IOWA survey when all over trying to see

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Speaker 8: some trends, some movement in one direction or another, and

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Speaker 8: that they're the ones who drove this. I tend not

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Speaker 8: to talk about polling when I do shows this. I

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Speaker 8: talk about policy, YEP. I talk about language, what the

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Speaker 8: public wants to see and hear, and whether the politicians

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Speaker 8: are doing it or not. And so much of this

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Speaker 8: is actually driven by those who ask the questions rather

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Speaker 8: than people like me who answer them, because we won't

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Speaker 8: answer them if we weren't asked them. I don't want

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Speaker 8: to make a blanket statement because I take this so

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Speaker 8: seriously and I so approve of the way your show

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Speaker 8: handles politics.

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Speaker 3: It's one of the.

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Speaker 8: Best shows in all of television for politics. But I

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Speaker 8: do think that there needs to be a reckoning for

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Speaker 8: what we choose to focus on and how we cover it,

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Speaker 8: because in the end it becomes misleading or even detrimental

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Speaker 8: to the political process.

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Speaker 3: As that IOWA survey clearly.

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Speaker 2: Was well Frank, we appreciate the kind words, and of

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Speaker 2: course there always is room for critique when we consider

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Speaker 2: how the narrative is shaped in America, and media plays

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Speaker 2: a role in that as well. I think we can

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Speaker 2: all agree. Earlier on in this cycle, there was a

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Speaker 2: few conversations that happened in quick succession, one being whether

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Speaker 2: or not the media was putting too much focus on

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Speaker 2: the age issue for Joe Biden. Then became whether or

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Speaker 2: not the media was complicit in covering up how deep

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Speaker 2: those issues may have run for the current president. And

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Speaker 2: I just wonder as we consider the role of Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden in all of this. His late withdrawal from his

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Speaker 2: reelection campaign. If ultimately you think that made a difference,

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Speaker 2: if the timing mattered, or if it was never going

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Speaker 2: to be possible for an incumbent administration given the kind

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Speaker 2: of inflation experienced during it, to keep hold of the

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Speaker 2: White House.

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Speaker 3: Don't I don't believe that.

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Speaker 8: I challenged the narrative which has been put forward now

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Speaker 8: for weeks. Vice President Harris had one of the sharpest

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Speaker 8: fastest rises of any candidate modern history.

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Speaker 3: She went from five points down when she.

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Speaker 8: Got into the race to three and a half points

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Speaker 8: up in a matter of a few weeks. Because she

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Speaker 8: was joyful. She talked about the things she wanted to do.

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Speaker 8: Instead of the negativity which he decried again and again.

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Speaker 8: She was hopeful and optimate and talked about all the

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Speaker 8: things that she wanted to get done. But then after

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Speaker 8: the convention, she turned dark, she turned negative. It sounded

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Speaker 8: as much like a Trump campaign as it did a

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Speaker 8: Harris campaign.

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Speaker 3: And that was when she hit her ceiling. And then

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Speaker 3: she and by changing.

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Speaker 8: This by being joyful and then being harshly negative, calling

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Speaker 8: a trumpet fascist, voters started to wonder who is she?

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Speaker 8: Is she authentic? Is she genuine? How do you go

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Speaker 8: from being joyful to damning your opponents. And then Biden,

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Speaker 8: of course made the comment about Trump's voters, and it

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Speaker 8: just it didn't ring true. That's number one, and number

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Speaker 8: two is she never articulated exactly what she wanted to

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Speaker 8: do in the first hour, in the first day, first week,

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Speaker 8: first month, first one hundred days, and so on. If

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Speaker 8: she had done that in the CNN town hall where

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Speaker 8: it's done live, if she'd done that in the sixty

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Speaker 8: minutes interview or a Fox interview, any of the if

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Speaker 8: she had done that and told voters exactly what she

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Speaker 8: wanted to do, she would have done much better because

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Speaker 8: then she would have been about policy, and that's where

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Speaker 8: she was weakest. But instead she got driven around. She

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Speaker 8: never answered the questions that voters had, and so she

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Speaker 8: never crossed that threshold. Whereas Donald Trump, we knew him,

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Speaker 8: There's nothing more we can learn about him. We knew

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Speaker 8: his weaknesses, we knew his strengths, we knew his record

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Speaker 8: because we saw it for four years. So her criticizing

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Speaker 8: him didn't add anything to her, did not detract from him,

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Speaker 8: And I think that that's one of the reasons why

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Speaker 8: she lost.

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Speaker 4: The diagnosis from Frank LUNs on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 4: All of that said, Frank, what did we learn about

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Speaker 4: our nation last night, particularly if this in fact was

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Speaker 4: about men versus women?

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Speaker 8: I love that question, and that's a question that we

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Speaker 8: need to be talking about over the coming weeks and months,

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Speaker 8: because there are some things that are more important than

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Speaker 8: an election. It's the next generation. And what are they learning.

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Speaker 8: They're learning that it's okay to tear your opponent apart.

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Speaker 8: They're learning that there is no bounds to negativity, that

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Speaker 8: there are right and wrong ways. But they need to

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Speaker 8: learn that they're right and wrong ways to approach politics,

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Speaker 8: to approach economics.

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Speaker 3: To approach day to day life.

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Speaker 8: And I'm just afraid that what we now learned is

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Speaker 8: the wrong thing, which is anything goes at any time

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Speaker 8: for any reason, and that frightens me for the future.

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Speaker 2: Well, okay, so if we keep looking at demographics here

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Speaker 2: and what the future may hold, Frank, I look at

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's victory in Miami Dade last night. We haven't

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Speaker 2: seen a Republican win that county for decades. It obviously

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Speaker 2: is majority Hispanic. We did see a sizable break among

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Speaker 2: Latinos for Donald Trump. In a way we haven't seen

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Speaker 2: in the past. Obviously, movement for black voters as well.

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Speaker 2: And I wonder if you think those demographic shifts are

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Speaker 2: unique to this candidate who is now president elect, or

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Speaker 2: if that may be something more permanent.

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Speaker 8: It's unique to this candidate, but also to this time

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Speaker 8: that it doesn't matter whether your white, black, brown.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't matter if you have trouble.

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Speaker 8: Affording food to put food on your table, to put

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Speaker 8: gas in your car, or the healthcare you need and

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Speaker 8: the housing that you want, then it doesn't matter what

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Speaker 8: your ethnicity is. What matters is you're struggling your living

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Speaker 8: paycheck to paycheck, and that's what's happening right now. And

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Speaker 8: Donald Trump articulated an empathy to that much more explicitly

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Speaker 8: than Harris did. She tried to run away from it.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 8: Trump's greatest weakness is he didn't focus enough on prices,

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Speaker 8: on costs, on affordability that instead he got sidetracked by

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Speaker 8: issues that did not matter. And in fact, I want

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Speaker 8: to acknowledge something, I'm going to go back to that

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Speaker 8: presidential debate that clearly she did relatively well and he

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Speaker 8: did relatively poorly.

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Speaker 3: In the end, it did not matter.

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Speaker 8: I thought the debate performance would cost him his candidacy,

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Speaker 8: and instead it actually did not matter. And that's another

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Speaker 8: learning that America pass to face and even when you

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Speaker 8: put two candidates side by side, the outcome does not

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Speaker 8: necessarily matter and who wins for president.

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Speaker 4: Really great to have you back, Frank Frank Luntz, founder

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Speaker 4: CEO FI L and just the voice we were looking

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Speaker 4: to hear today. Thanks for being with us throughout this

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Speaker 4: entire campaign. Here on Bloomberg TV and radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and

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Speaker 1: then Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump had any number of economic policy proposals that

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Speaker 4: we've talked about over the past couple of months that

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Speaker 4: brought us to this point. Here's a taste.

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Speaker 5: What I'm going to do is something that nobody has

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Speaker 5: ever even thought about doing.

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Speaker 3: No tax on tips.

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Speaker 5: As part of our additional tax cuts, we will end

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Speaker 5: all taxes on overtime. I want to cut taxes on

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Speaker 5: Americans while putting tariffs on China and foreign countries.

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Speaker 3: To bring our jobs back home.

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Speaker 5: My plan is to make the Trump tax cuts permanent.

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Speaker 5: They are massive tax cuts, biggest ever permanent.

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Speaker 3: And to cut taxes even more. A reduction in the

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Speaker 3: corporate tax rate.

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Speaker 5: From twenty one percent to fifteen percent. No tax on

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Speaker 5: social security benefits.

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Speaker 6: Restoring the salt deduction, saving.

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Speaker 5: Thousands of dollars for residents of New York, Pennsylvania, New.

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Speaker 6: Jersey, and other high cost states.

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Speaker 5: As part of our tax cuts, we will make interest

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Speaker 5: on car loans fully deductible.

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Speaker 4: And joining us now. Joe Lavornia, chief economist with SMBC

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Speaker 4: Nico Securities America, the former chief economist the White House

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Speaker 4: National Economic Council in the first Trump administration. Nice to

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Speaker 4: see you at the table. I bet you've been up

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Speaker 4: all night.

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Speaker 7: I can only imagine a lot of you. Thank you

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Speaker 7: for having me. I was on earlier in the week

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Speaker 7: sitting over there absolutely well.

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Speaker 3: Nice.

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Speaker 4: Do you know this table very well? And you've been

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Speaker 4: generous with your time over the course of this cycle.

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Speaker 4: We've got a lot of questions for you here, beginning

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Speaker 4: with this market reaction. This is a monster move. To

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Speaker 4: see a day in which the dows up over one

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Speaker 4: thousand points. The S and P five hundred is up

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Speaker 4: some supercent, but the bond market is moving in the

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Speaker 4: other direction. We're looking at a four or five here

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Speaker 4: as of this moment on the ten year. What do

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Speaker 4: you make specifically of the reaction in the bond market.

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Speaker 4: This is clearly an anticipation of some sort of inflationary event.

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Speaker 7: Well, here's the thing.

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Speaker 9: I when I was talking with investors and clients as

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Speaker 9: I do that's most of my day job, this simple

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Speaker 9: question is what happens if Harris wins?

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Speaker 7: What happens if Trump wins?

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Speaker 9: And my initial read very simplistic terms, was Harris bad

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Speaker 9: for equities, good for bonds. Trump good for equities, bad

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Speaker 9: for bonds. And that related to the fact on where

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Speaker 9: I see growth and also how the market initially would

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Speaker 9: react to things. So, for ext with Trump, equities are

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Speaker 9: up because the market's more excited about growth, lower tax rates,

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Speaker 9: less regulation, et cetera. But the bond market gets worried

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Speaker 9: about more spending, tax cuts, et cetera. And like the

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Speaker 9: CBO for example, they're going to initially probably score a

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Speaker 9: Trump budget as being you know, more deficit related spending,

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Speaker 9: the Tax Foundation found that the problem with it is

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Speaker 9: that we don't know the specifics yet. And I'd argue,

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Speaker 9: if you look back at the Tax Cuts and Jobs

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Speaker 9: Act of twenty seventeen, and you see what CBO scored

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Speaker 9: the revenue numbers in sixteen, we actually got the money

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Speaker 9: in eighteen. In other words, the tax cut paid for itself.

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Speaker 9: So I think these are, you know, knee jerk reactions,

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Speaker 9: and then we'll see what happens once we get some

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Speaker 9: meat to the bone.

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Speaker 2: Well, so as you consider the timeline you just said,

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Speaker 2: they're knowing that there was eight trillion dollars in deficit

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Speaker 2: added during the first Trump administration. The Committee for Responsible

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Speaker 2: Budget says it could be another fifteen trillion dollars if

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Speaker 2: not all of it pays for itself. But it is

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Speaker 2: a question of time, especially knowing these markets are discounting mechanisms,

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Speaker 2: they are looking well ahead. So when we consider sequencing

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Speaker 2: here things like tariffs that could potentially hit the economy

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Speaker 2: first before the actual beneficiary impacts of lower taxes is

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Speaker 2: fully felt and recognized, and corporate profits and the like, Right,

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Speaker 2: how should we think about the way in which this

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Speaker 2: plays out?

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Speaker 10: Right?

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Speaker 9: So the europeolutely right, marcuts are forward looking, and they

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Speaker 9: may fear or they could think that, okay, tariffs are inflationary,

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Speaker 9: it's a one off price adjustment. But again it would

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Speaker 9: be how are the tariffs implemented and what would the

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Speaker 9: US be getting in return. I think there's this misperception

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Speaker 9: that day one of Trump, We're going to have tariffs

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Speaker 9: across the board x percent, and this is my guess,

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Speaker 9: and in China's gonna be at least sixty percent, maybe higher.

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Speaker 9: To me, it's going to be more nuanced. It's going

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Speaker 9: to be very transactional. In other words, terifts are going

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Speaker 9: to be used in large part as a tool to

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Speaker 9: essentially have more fair trade. So, for example, the US

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Speaker 9: has certain environmental regulations and certain rules against child labor.

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Speaker 9: Some of our trading partners don't have those same rules,

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Speaker 9: and we're at a disadvantage. So to extend tariffs can

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Speaker 9: level the playing field and make trade fair. I think

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Speaker 9: that makes sense. Also, it would depend too, what happens

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Speaker 9: with energy policy. If we have a significant amount of

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Speaker 9: drilling and energy production, that will offset the tariffs, even

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Speaker 9: if the tariffs, for argument's sake, we're implemented across the board.

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Speaker 9: The energy share of the economy is bigger than the

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Speaker 9: import share of the economy, So it really depends how

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Speaker 9: it's going to be put into place. And I always

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Speaker 9: tell people look at things the broad policy set, like,

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Speaker 9: don't focus just on the tariffs, don't focus just on

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Speaker 9: the tax cuts, look at the holistic approach in terms

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Speaker 9: of trying to increase productive capacity.

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Speaker 7: I guess a.

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Speaker 2: Simpler way though of asking my question would be are

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Speaker 2: we likely to feel the inflation before we feel the growth?

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Speaker 7: No? I don't believe so.

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Speaker 9: I don't believe so because if energy prices stay low,

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Speaker 9: that will immediately hit people's pocketbooks in a positive way.

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Speaker 9: Prices will come down. The general rule of thumb is

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Speaker 9: every one penny change in gasoline is worth about a

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Speaker 9: billion in terms of an energy tax cut.

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Speaker 7: So if you get prices down, fifty.

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Speaker 9: Cents may not seem like a lot, but in a

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Speaker 9: twenty five trillion dollar economy, that's basically like a fifty

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Speaker 9: billion dollar tax cut immediately.

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Speaker 4: What do you make of the moves of these the

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Speaker 4: banks today? This is wild Golden sacks up thirteen percent

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Speaker 4: right now. I could go down a long list of them.

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Speaker 4: Is basil three dead if it wasn't already.

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Speaker 9: I think Basil three is dead or like in The

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Speaker 9: Princess Bride, it's mostly dead.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, but look, the financials are is it a great movie?

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Speaker 9: The financials are essentially a high data on the economy.

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Speaker 9: So if you believe, and again I'm trying to be

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Speaker 9: objective here, if you're looking at the equity market, the

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Speaker 9: equity market's up on the expectation of stronger growth, and

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Speaker 9: the financials are a high data to GDP. So if

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Speaker 9: we sustain three percent GDP or higher and inflation does

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Speaker 9: moderate as I think it will, then you know the

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Speaker 9: banks are dealing what you're supposed to do well.

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Speaker 2: So as we consider potential policy here and regulation, We've

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Speaker 2: talked with you before, Joe about some of the other

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Speaker 2: policy ideas that have been put forward, like on immigration,

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Speaker 2: for example, the ideas that around mass deportation and the

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Speaker 2: economic impact it ultimately could have if millions of people

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Speaker 2: who are contributing to the labor force right now, who

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Speaker 2: are paying into things like social security, were to leave

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Speaker 2: the country, how should we be gaming that out, and

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Speaker 2: the realism of trying to get that many people out

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Speaker 2: of the country in an expeditious manner.

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Speaker 9: Joel of Warren, Your private citizen doesn't expect mass deportation.

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Speaker 3: Okay.

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Speaker 9: My strong sense and gut instinct is that we're going

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Speaker 9: to enforce the laws. We're going to make sure the

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Speaker 9: administration will make sure that there is more legal immigration

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Speaker 9: that comes through. However, there are a lot of potential

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Speaker 9: bad actors, as we know, not to get into details

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Speaker 9: that need to be removed, and I think law enforcement

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Speaker 9: will do so, but I do not personally.

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Speaker 7: This is me Joel of.

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Speaker 9: Warren is speaking, do not expect mass deportation. The other

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Speaker 9: factor I want to mention is that if you look

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Speaker 9: at labor force participation, we're about three quarters of a

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Speaker 9: point below where we were pre COVID. That's over a

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Speaker 9: million workers. So if the economy can grow and we

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Speaker 9: can get labor force participation to rise further, that would

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Speaker 9: offset any modest effect that we may not be getting

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Speaker 9: through immigration and will clearly be benefiting the US workers

444
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 9: that are here.

445
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 4: This would be a very different FTC than we have

446
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 4: right now. And I mentioned Goldman earlier. I'm thinking IPOs,

447
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:17,640
Speaker 4: I'm thinking.

448
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: Mergers and acquisitions.

449
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 4: Is that what we mean when we say animal spirits?

450
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 7: Yeah? Animal spirits a confidence in the outlook.

451
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, what's the M and A situation going to look

452
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 4: like in Trump's two point.

453
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 9: Zero Well, certainly there will be much more M and

454
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 9: A activity.

455
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,919
Speaker 7: Look, I don't think to me, it's going to be

456
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 7: more entrepreneurial.

457
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 9: I mean I always would tell people when I highlighted

458
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 9: this when I was in the administration, if you look

459
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 9: at the small business sentiment, it was the highest under

460
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 9: President Trump's in any administration. So there is I think

461
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 9: a dynamism and an animal spirit that is reflective in

462
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 9: an entrepreneurialism, a type of role, and that is going

463
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 9: to be I think beneficial to activity that allows people

464
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 9: to trade act and by the way.

465
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 7: Onlike tariffs and things like that.

466
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 9: This sounds pretty basic, is I don't think this is insightful.

467
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 9: But President Trump's a business man, and I think you

468
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 9: have to look at the transactional nature of how he

469
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 9: approaches things. And there was a great quote from a

470
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 9: reporter of the Pittsburgh Is that I believe eight years

471
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 9: ago said don't take President Trump literally, but take them seriously.

472
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 9: And I find too often we get caught up in

473
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,959
Speaker 9: the rhetoric and get caught up in things that divide

474
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 9: us I don't really believe that to be the case

475
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 9: in the second term, at least I.

476
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 2: Hope as we consider entrepreneurialism being able to jumpstart things,

477
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 2: we have to look at the cost of capital. And

478
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 2: that brings me to something that's coming up tomorrow, as

479
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 2: if we all haven't had enough this week, a Federal

480
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 2: Reserve decision. They're expected to cut twenty five basis points.

481
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 2: The market is now pricing in fewer cuts over the

482
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 2: course of the next year, Joe, in part maybe due

483
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 2: to the outcome of this election.

484
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 7: What do you think about that? No question, the market

485
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 7: is expecting faster growth.

486
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 9: I think it's perhaps incorrectly expecting inflation is going to

487
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 9: be higher, but it's expecting faster growth and then less inflation.

488
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 9: And because the president's going to try to make per

489
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 9: and I think he will the tax cuts some Jobs

490
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 9: Act of twenty seventeen, there's no big tax hike coming

491
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 9: in twenty six and therefore there's no fiscal cliff, which

492
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 9: means there's less pressure on the Fed to cut. So

493
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 9: I think initially the Fed will probably cut less. They'll

494
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 9: cut twenty five tomorrow, and to me, December is probably

495
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 9: a pause, and then we'll reevaluate and we'll see you

496
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 9: know where the personnel is in the Trump administration and

497
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 9: what policies are are advocated.

498
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 7: Because right now this is still guesswork.

499
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 4: Pretty interesting to consider what will happen over the course

500
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 4: of the next month. Your phone's going to be ringing.

501
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 4: What job would you want in a Trump administration?

502
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 7: Again, I said this the other day.

503
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 9: I said, look, I'm very happy where I am and

504
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 9: being honored to serve, and we'll just play it by year.

505
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 7: We'll see.

506
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 9: I really, I mean, I love the markets, I love

507
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 9: coming on, like having a nice conversation with you guys,

508
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 9: and certainly if the President called, I would be hard

509
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 9: to say no. But right now I'm happy and we'll

510
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 9: see what happens.

511
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 7: You know, I feel like, you know, I like to

512
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 7: think I've got some options. But we'll say they.

513
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 4: See you on the North one points soon, hopefully not

514
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 4: cut well.

515
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 2: I want to say it, thank you either way, always

516
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 2: welcome you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We appreciate

517
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 2: you joining us. On this day after the election, Joe Lavornie,

518
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 2: of course, formerly of the Trump White House, now at

519
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 2: SMBCNCO Securities. On this day after the election, a day

520
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 2: in which markets are ripping the S and P five

521
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 2: hundred at a fresh record high in the bond market

522
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: seeing big news with a tenure yield up seventeen basis points.

523
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 2: We'll have more ahead on the markets and the politics

524
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 2: with our political panel next on Bloomberg TV and radio.

525
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

526
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,439
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on amocr Play and

527
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 1: then Broun Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on

528
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

529
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

530
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 4: They are still counting votes. We still have some important

531
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 4: Senate races to be called here, Kaylee, but the transition

532
00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 4: on the presidential level has already begun. Donald Trump is

533
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 4: now officially the president elects.

534
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 2: YEP, having won two hundred and seventy seven Electoral College

535
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 2: votes at this point, but it is expected he could

536
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: win many more than that. For all of our months

537
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 2: of discussion about how this race was incredibly tight going

538
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 2: to be decided by very closed margins, the margins Donald

539
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 2: Trump was able to put up over the last twenty

540
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 2: four hours have been pretty remarkable, adding to what he

541
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 2: experienced in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. And it's not

542
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 2: just the electoral college we're watching here, but the popular vote,

543
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 2: which he is currently winning by roughly five million votes.

544
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 2: He did not get the popular vote in the first

545
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 2: two cycles.

546
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 4: He ran in defying most predictions that we described here

547
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 4: on the air, talking to various pollsters who do this

548
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 4: for a living confounding us to the point where it's

549
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 4: now being called a red wave, or, as Romaine Bostik

550
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 4: called it from Detroit, a red wake up call. Things

551
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 4: went late into the night. You probably didn't get much

552
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 4: sleep yourself. The whole nation is bleary eyed this morning. J. D.

553
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 4: Vance got up to the podium while Donald Trump was

554
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,360
Speaker 4: delivering his victory speech last night in West Palm Beach.

555
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 3: Let's listen.

556
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 11: Well, mister President, I appreciate you allowing me to join

557
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 11: you on this incredible journey. I thank you for the

558
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 11: trust that you have placed in me, and I think

559
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 11: that we just winn us the greatest political comeback in

560
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 11: the history of the United States of America.

561
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 2: Joining us now for more our political panel, democratic strategist

562
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 2: and partner at Rock Solutions Kristin Hahn, alongside Republican strategist

563
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 2: and West Front strategies principle. Ashley Davis, thank you both

564
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 2: for being with us on this day. After Ashley, just

565
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,439
Speaker 2: to begin with you, jd. Vance calls it the greatest

566
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 2: political comeback in the history of the United States. And

567
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 2: he is not alone in characterizing this in that way.

568
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 2: After a loss in twenty twenty After January sixth, twenty

569
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 2: twenty one, Donald Trump is going to be the forty

570
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 2: seventh president of the United States. What does it say

571
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 2: to you?

572
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 12: He's also going to be a very decisive president of

573
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 12: the United States. I mean, the win, which I think

574
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 12: is probably good or bad, is good for the country

575
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,719
Speaker 12: in regards to there's no question about who won. And

576
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 12: that's really not a political statement. I would say the

577
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 12: same thing if Kamala would have won. The fact that

578
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 12: it's not hanging on Chad's or anything else is a

579
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 12: good sign. But yeah, it is a huge political comeback.

580
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 12: I mean, who would have thought how many times was

581
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 12: he indicted? How many times has he been convicted? On

582
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 12: thirty four and indicted more? Yeah, And so I mean

583
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 12: just the fact that he was able to do this

584
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 12: and come back. I actually think it shows one how

585
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 12: he does talk and resonate with parts of this country

586
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 12: that a lot of us don't talk to every day,

587
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 12: and also just how upset the country was. And I

588
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 12: think that's what shows and I think that we a

589
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 12: collective we probably need to take a look at the

590
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 12: people that have spoken about how unhappy they are and

591
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 12: want them change in our country.

592
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,959
Speaker 4: Kristin Harne, a lot of Democrats are feeling bruised this

593
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 4: day after. It's not just the presidency, it's Congress. You

594
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 4: spent quite a good amount of time on Capitol Hill

595
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 4: as a blue dog Democrat. How do you see this today?

596
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 10: I think there you've already seen kind of the blame game,

597
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 10: starting the finger pointing.

598
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 7: I think I think, you.

599
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 10: Know, as Democrats, we need to take a look like

600
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 10: what Ashley said, why were the people not happy? What

601
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 10: are we talking to them about? How are we talking

602
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 10: to them? And really think about that. You know, this

603
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 10: automatic some of the talking points I've seen out there

604
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 10: from some Democrats saying, you know, we just had didn't

605
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 10: lean into the progressive the liberal side enough, I think

606
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 10: is the wrong lesson to take from this. There were

607
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,959
Speaker 10: no more votes to be be got from there. We

608
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 10: need to think about how we are are listening and

609
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 10: talking to the American people all across the country. I

610
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 10: think there was a lot of fear mongering, you know.

611
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 10: I think that there was a lot of misinformation out there,

612
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 10: and I think it'll take us months, if not yours,

613
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 10: to figure out what, you know, what we need to do,

614
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 10: particularly heading into the midterms.

615
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: Well, and I wonder how you're reacting to the demographic

616
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 2: breakdown we've seen an exit polse Kristin. It's looking like

617
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris, who would have been the first female president

618
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 2: in the United States if she had one, is going

619
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 2: to win fewer female vote votes than Joe Biden did

620
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. For all of the talk about momentum

621
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 2: among women, what does that say to you?

622
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 10: Well, I mean I think there's also like she had,

623
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 10: you know, one of the shortest runs for the presidency,

624
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 10: and I think that probably hampered her ability to really

625
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 10: define herself beyond you know, Joe Biden. I think also,

626
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 10: you know, we were fresh off of four years with

627
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 10: President Trump and people were sick of it and they

628
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 10: voted that way. So I think it's not necessarily her.

629
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 10: I think it was you know, you look at the

630
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 10: you know, what's happening at the time, and when it's happening.

631
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 10: And I unfortunately think that we're going to get two

632
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 10: years with the mid terms and four years down the road,

633
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 10: and people are going to be reminded of how exhausted

634
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 10: they are with having to wake up and listen to

635
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 10: President Trump every day.

636
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 4: See your thoughts on the gen battle. This had really

637
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 4: devolved into a men versus women election, we were told,

638
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,239
Speaker 4: and a lot of Democrats are asking today, a lot

639
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 4: of women are asking why is America not capable of

640
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 4: getting its arms around this idea of electing a female president.

641
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 12: I wish I knew, because I mean, I obviously believe

642
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 12: in that a lot. I actually think though that what

643
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 12: people thought was going to get her across the finish line, though,

644
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 12: was the abortion issue or the dods rolling. And I

645
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 12: think what happened, and obviously there's going to be days

646
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 12: to come which we can look at this data, but

647
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 12: it looks like many women, even in the suburban areas,

648
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 12: cared more about security, the border, the economy than they

649
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 12: even did kind of these rights. And also, I do

650
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 12: believe the American people, as a pro choice Republican understand

651
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 12: that now this is in the States, right, I mean,

652
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 12: I don't think that people are The rhetoric that went

653
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 12: around about the dab's decision, how no one's ever going

654
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 12: to be able to have, you know, female rights, is

655
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 12: just not correct, and so I think people aren't believing

656
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 12: that message. I think the biggest, the biggest demographic that

657
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 12: came out of yesterday is one in theory of color

658
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 12: voters voted for Trump. I mean, that's not that was

659
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 12: high in two thousand and four when Bush one reelect,

660
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 12: but it hasn't been that high since. And I think

661
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 12: that that's pretty it's remarkable.

662
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 3: It's all remarkable.

663
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 4: We should remind our audience as well. You did support

664
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 4: a woman for president. You were a Nicki Haley supporter

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00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 4: at the beginning of this campaign. Is there a place

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00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 4: for you in this party?

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Speaker 7: Listen? I don't.

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Speaker 12: I'm just like her. I mean, I'm a conservative. I

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00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 12: believe in conservative autism in regards to financial conservative. I'm

670
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 12: very socially liberal. But I do believe in Republican policies.

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00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 12: And so at the end of the day, am I

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00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 12: happy that there's a Republican Senate? Absolutely? Would I do.

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00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 12: I not believe in some of Kamala Harris's policies, absolutely,

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00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 12: but I do believe in a woman becoming president. Obviously

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00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 12: that's not going to happen. But I at the end

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00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 12: of the day, I'm a Republican. I'm going to support

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00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 12: Republicans well.

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00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 2: As Ashley raises the Senate, Kristen, we already know that

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00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,479
Speaker 2: the Senate has gone for the Democrats. It has been flipped.

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00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 2: The question now is the margin, and the bigger question

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00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 2: is the House. What races will you be watching that

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00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 2: have yet to be called?

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00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 10: You know, I'm watching a lot of races where people

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00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 10: are doing well. You know, Jim costin California always does well.

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00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 10: You know Henry koyar one in Texas, which is great.

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00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 10: You know, you look at people who are really strong,

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00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 10: like Mary Peltola out in Alaska, who you know, Lisa

688
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 10: Murkowski said she wanted her to be back in the House.

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00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 10: So races like those, I think, you know, there are

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00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 10: a number of them that were flipped last night. It'll

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00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 10: be several days, if not weeks, before we know who

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00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 10: has control of the House. But I think at the

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00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 10: end of the day, as a House person, you know

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00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 10: those members and those candidates who really know their districts

695
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 10: and really speak to the voter voters on a local

696
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 10: level will be the ones who who ultimately pull out

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00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 10: the win here. And for Democrats, obviously control the House

698
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 10: is really important so that we don't have Donald Trump

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00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 10: as president completely unchecked in his power.

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00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 4: You know what, the loudest question I'm hearing from Democrats

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00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 4: today is Kristin Hahn, what would have happened if she

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00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 4: picked Josh Shapiro.

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00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 10: I'm not sure would have made that much of a difference. Honestly,

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00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 10: I think we had a really strong team and a

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00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 10: strong vice presidential candidate and Tim Waltz, So, you know,

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00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 10: I think that the you know, any conversations within my

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00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 10: party about what if is not productive At this point.

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00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 10: We need to all be sitting down at the table

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00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 10: and being like, what happened here and what do we

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00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 10: need to do differently?

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00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 2: Well, and then there's the question of what happens next

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00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and JD.

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00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 12: Vance.

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00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 2: We know Ashley, but who is likely to be in

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00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 2: this cabinet? Is this transition gets underway.

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00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 12: I think you'll see a lot of governors. I mean,

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00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 12: you'll see a lot of senators, especially if the Senate

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00:34:55,440 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 12: does end up being fifty four. Republicans say, obviously Cormick's

719
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 12: very close to winning and you know, in Pennsylvania and

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00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 12: maybe Nevada or maybe not. We'll see, but I think

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00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 12: that those are going to be easy to confirm. And

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00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 12: I also think that it gives you a little bit

723
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 12: of room to have a vacancy in regards to other

724
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 12: votes if the Senators are going up for some sort

725
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 12: of confirmation, I don't think if the numbers stay this

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00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 12: close one way or the other. And going back to

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00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,799
Speaker 12: Kristen's comment, I think there's really we're down to like

728
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 12: nine races in the House from what I understand about,

729
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 12: you know what's going to happen, and I think no

730
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 12: matter what happens, it's going to be very close. But

731
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 12: you can't take very many House members out of no matter,

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00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,800
Speaker 12: you know, if you're a Republican unless we're in the minority.

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00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 12: I think you see at least a Phonica somewhere interesting.

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Speaker 2: She wants what you an ambassador?

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00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 3: That sounds right.

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Speaker 4: Nice to have you in New York today.

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00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 3: We're lucky.

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Speaker 4: Ashley Davis with us of course, and Kristen Hahn are

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00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:58,240
Speaker 4: paneled today on Balance of Power the day after the race.

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00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

741
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

742
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,439
Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

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00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at

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00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 4: Bloomberg dot com