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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: I want to talk more about the oil markets and

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Speaker 2: the impact that the Iran attack might have on them

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Speaker 2: with Ellen Wall, President of Transversal Consulting. So, Ellen, I

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Speaker 2: want to just start with OPEC plus because they already

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Speaker 2: responded pretty quickly by increasing quote as slightly not a

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Speaker 2: major output hike. But is this really more symbolic than

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Speaker 2: anything else.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that what we saw from the output

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Speaker 3: hike and the swiftness with which they did this was

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Speaker 3: really a signal to the market that should there be

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Speaker 3: any kind of major disruptions, that OPEK is absolutely willing

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Speaker 3: to hike production very swiftly to accommodate that. Now, obviously

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Speaker 3: the big question is, well, if the major oil producers

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Speaker 3: here Saudi Arabia, you know, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, you know,

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Speaker 3: if they're experiencing any kind of disruptions to both either

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Speaker 3: their oil infrastructure or just the ability to get that

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Speaker 3: oil out of out of the Middle East, that may

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Speaker 3: not be all that helpful. And we're really going to

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Speaker 3: see reliance on places like a Kazakhstan, for example, to

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Speaker 3: increase output.

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Speaker 4: How to producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE factor

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Speaker 4: into market stability in this scenario.

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Speaker 3: That would say they're they're really key right now. What's

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Speaker 3: interesting is that both the EUAE and Saudi Arabia don't

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Speaker 3: rely one hundred percent on the Persian Gulf to get

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Speaker 3: their oil out Kuwait most of Iraq, and they are

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Speaker 3: entirely almost entirely reliant really on the Straight of Horn Moves.

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Speaker 3: Sada Arabia does have a way to get oil out

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Speaker 3: through the Red Sea, and the UA has pipelines that

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Speaker 3: go around the Strait of hornm Moves, but still a

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Speaker 3: lot of their oil is still set up and oil

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Speaker 3: products as well to go out through the Strait of

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Speaker 3: Horror Moves. And we've seen, as you mentioned, that tanker

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Speaker 3: rates are sky high, so you know, even if there

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Speaker 3: is no you know, direct threat from Iran, it's still

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Speaker 3: too expensive to send a tanker through the street either

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Speaker 3: to pick up oil or to get it out. And

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Speaker 3: so this is really causing a standstill that if it

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Speaker 3: continues for you know, a week or even two, could

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Speaker 3: really start to cause major problems.

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Speaker 5: Ellen.

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Speaker 2: If there is a winner in all of this, you

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Speaker 2: say that would be Russia at least in the short term, right,

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Speaker 2: because I guess It's oil would be able to flow

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Speaker 2: unobstructed to its biggest oil consumer, which is China exactly.

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Speaker 3: China is really you know, In has the biggest problem

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Speaker 3: with oil not being able to get out of the

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Speaker 3: Persian Golf because it consumes a huge amount from there,

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Speaker 3: But it also consumes a large amount of Russian oil,

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Speaker 3: and he can get that oil without having to go

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Speaker 3: through the Persian Gulf. So I would not be surprised

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Speaker 3: if this continues to see China increasing its imports from

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Speaker 3: Russia even more, and as oil prices go up, Putin

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Speaker 3: can also charge more for his oil. So he is

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Speaker 3: definitely looking at this as you know, there's more money

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Speaker 3: in his pocketbook now and he's potentially got another more

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Speaker 3: more space to sell his oil to the customers that

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Speaker 3: will buy it. Another question is will India, which recently

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Speaker 3: committed to stop buying Russian oil, feel that it needs

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Speaker 3: to go back to purchasing Russian oil to offset the

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Speaker 3: losses that it's suffering because it can't get oil from

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Speaker 3: the Persian golf.

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Speaker 4: What are some key potential red flags that you'd be

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Speaker 4: watching in the coming weeks in terms of oil markets.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the biggest issue I think we're we're

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Speaker 3: looking for right now, I think spikes in natural gas

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Speaker 3: prices in Europe and also in Japan and in other

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Speaker 3: Asian countries. Katar has shut down it's LNG plants and

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Speaker 3: they're major supplier to Asia, and so you know they're

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Speaker 3: really we're going to be looking for big spikes there.

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Speaker 3: And then as well, we're talking not just crude oil,

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Speaker 3: but also products are major major things that are going

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Speaker 3: through the Strait of Horn moves, and so it would

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Speaker 3: be very important to keep an eye on that, particularly Asia, China, Japan,

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Speaker 3: South Korea. These are all countries that get huge amounts

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Speaker 3: of these vital products from the Middle East, and so

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Speaker 3: I'd keep be keeping a very close eye on what

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Speaker 3: China is doing. I know that they recently started talking

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Speaker 3: to the Iranians. It will be interesting to see if

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Speaker 3: they try to bring their economic leverage to push the

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Speaker 3: Iranians to kind of bring this to a swifter resolution.

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Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am. He's done on Apple, Cocklay and

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Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We did hear earlier though, Nora from the Defense Secretary,

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Speaker 2: from the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff about this operation

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Speaker 2: Operation Epic Fury, Pete Hegseth, a Defense secretary, saying that

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Speaker 2: aren had a gun to our head as he defended

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Speaker 2: this attack right.

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Speaker 4: And there was also some discussion about the fact that

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Speaker 4: heg Seth's saying that he didn't want to say too

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Speaker 4: much in terms of granularities as to not expose some

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Speaker 4: of their plans to quote the enemy. So that's also

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Speaker 4: been something that we are keeping an eye on.

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Speaker 5: But to talk about.

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Speaker 4: This and more, we're joined by doctor Ario Cohen, Senior

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Speaker 4: Fellow at the Atlantic Council. There's been a lot of

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Speaker 4: developments happening, a lot of things that happened during weekend,

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Speaker 4: and we're really seeing a lot of it's spilling into today.

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Speaker 4: On Monday, talk to us about what you're watching and

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Speaker 4: what your main takeaways are of all these geopolitical tensions.

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Speaker 6: The first takeaway is how radically the character of war

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Speaker 6: has changed. If you think about World War one, World

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Speaker 6: War two, even Vietnam warring parties did not go to

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Speaker 6: take out the leadership of the opposing country on the

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Speaker 6: first day. We did, and we did it. Secondly, the

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Speaker 6: two things I'm watching very carefully is whether or not

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Speaker 6: the US Navy and the allies, including the Arab countries

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Speaker 6: right in the Gulf, can secure the shipment of oil

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Speaker 6: through the state of horror moves. For now, for the

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Speaker 6: first couple of days, the shipment dropped, the oil prices

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Speaker 6: went to eighty. Our economy can live with oil at eighty.

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Speaker 6: It lived with oil at much higher prices. However, if

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Speaker 6: it goes on for weeks and months, that's a different story.

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Speaker 6: Because percent of global oil and good amount of energy

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Speaker 6: lique financial gas ship through the Strait Strait of Hormus.

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Speaker 6: It's an errowstraate. It's something like two miles or something

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Speaker 6: like that. Now, luckily there's a lot of product. There

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Speaker 6: is oil that Saudi Arabia can ship to the red

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Speaker 6: s Now. There's a problem with the Red Sea because

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Speaker 6: of the hoofis and who thys are supported and equipped

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Speaker 6: and trained by Iran. So you see the visious circle here.

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Speaker 6: So the strategic goal is to enact enough damage to

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Speaker 6: the ruling regime in Iran, so the transition to a

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Speaker 6: non Islamist regime, non IRGC dominated regime starts to happen.

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Speaker 6: And I think it's too early to tell whether or

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Speaker 6: not this is going to happen, how fast, and how

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Speaker 6: messy it's going to be. Iran is messy historically and

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Speaker 6: probably is going to be messy now. And finally, I'm

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Speaker 6: watching the amount of m the US and the Israelis

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Speaker 6: a shooting, be it missile defense, be it rockets, offensive rockets, bombs,

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Speaker 6: et cetera. Because all this equipment is very expensive. This

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Speaker 6: is why folks are investing in weapons companies and the Pentagon.

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Speaker 6: The US needs a supply, strategic supply of these weapon

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Speaker 6: systems in Europe, in the Pacific, just in case. And

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Speaker 6: this is a three theater circus three circus show that

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Speaker 6: we're watching because a certain amount of these weapons systems

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Speaker 6: need to be preserved for Europe and for the Pacific.

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Speaker 2: And doctor Cohen one we look at what happens now,

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Speaker 2: what happens next?

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Speaker 6: Right?

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Speaker 2: Who will what will the new regime and Aroan look like?

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Speaker 2: Even President Trump said that his picks for the next

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Speaker 2: leader has been killed. So what what can we expect

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Speaker 2: from the new regime and will it be any better

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Speaker 2: and friendlier to UH to global relations than the prior regime.

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Speaker 6: The main question is whether I r GC, the Iranian

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Speaker 6: Revolutionary Guard Corps are going to stay in power. This

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Speaker 6: is a combination of the military, elite, military and secret police,

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Speaker 6: so imagine the SS and baffin assess or not the

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Speaker 6: Germany of KGB and internal security troops in the Soviet Union.

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Speaker 6: It is a characteristic of a totalitarian state where you

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Speaker 6: have a merger of internal security and the military. UH,

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Speaker 6: the regular military. The Artesh has not stepped in yet.

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Speaker 5: And I believe that.

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Speaker 6: The US and Israel are talking to folks inside Iran.

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Speaker 6: Be It supporters of the Shah. We heard chance for

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Speaker 6: Reza Shah path Levi, hair of the throne of the

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Speaker 6: son of the last Shaw, be It reformers, So there

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Speaker 6: are a lot of people. How these people can sit

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Speaker 6: together and rule Iran, That's a big question. What the

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Speaker 6: elites the urban folks, that educator folks all repudiated the

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Speaker 6: current theocratic dictatorship that killed thirty thousand of their own people.

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Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: But continuing on in this conversation, we'd like to talk

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Speaker 4: with Wayne Sanders. He's a Bloomberg Intelligence senior defense weapons analysts.

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Speaker 4: I've been keeping an eyewane on some of the stocks moving,

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Speaker 4: at least in terms of some of the US defense names,

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Speaker 4: and we're seeing them rallying on the day, not too

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Speaker 4: much of a surprise. What's your takeaway from the developments

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Speaker 4: here and as this relates to weaponry more broadly.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely, Thank you so much for having me on.

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Speaker 7: We put on some research over the weekend. One of

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Speaker 7: the biggest things that we've noticed right US defense primes

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Speaker 7: like Lockheed RTX in Northrope they're really at the center

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Speaker 7: of the air missile defense and strike capabilities that are

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Speaker 7: underscored by the US Israel campaign against Iran right now,

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Speaker 7: and so it's being able to show that crude systems,

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Speaker 7: piloted systems, shooting piloted systems continue to be at the

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Speaker 7: forefront of this right F twenty two's F sixteen's F

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Speaker 7: fifteen Strike Eagle, in the F thirty five, obviously for

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Speaker 7: air dominance, all of these have played a really critical

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Speaker 7: role in here. It starts to show that the work

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Speaker 7: into stealth technology continues to be one of the key

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Speaker 7: pieces that's going to continue to be pressed. They're proving,

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Speaker 7: they're proving their nature, they're proving their importance to it,

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Speaker 7: and then you're also seeing that from a naval power,

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Speaker 7: it ends up continuing to be a very powerful button

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Speaker 7: for the president to use to be able to bring

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Speaker 7: out these these these strike the carrier strike groups, excuse

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Speaker 7: me to go out there, aircraft carriers along with these

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Speaker 7: guided missile destroyers to be able to provide not only

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Speaker 7: a level of air defense, but then also air superiority

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Speaker 7: as well as long range strike capability.

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Speaker 2: And Wayne this morning we got word from the US

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Speaker 2: that US jets were shot down over Kuwait in apparent

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Speaker 2: friendly fire. In a friendly fire incident. Thankfully, the crew

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Speaker 2: that were in those jets were able to jettison out

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Speaker 2: of them and last we heard their unstable condition at

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Speaker 2: a hospital. But can you tell us more about those

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Speaker 2: jets and what was destroyed there?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, when you look at some of the F fifteen

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Speaker 7: capabilities and all that, right, air defense is normally right,

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Speaker 7: they come as different pieces. You have a radar system

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Speaker 7: that's actually used specifically to identify the signal itself. Then

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Speaker 7: you have to be able to put it together with

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Speaker 7: an interceptor that's going to be able to shoot it down.

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Speaker 7: And so what happened in some of these is I

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Speaker 7: believe that the radars themselves, when you try to differentiate

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Speaker 7: identify friend versus foe, ends up being a key piece

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Speaker 7: of this. Right, there are specific signatures that different aircraft

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Speaker 7: comes on if they if you override that and you

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Speaker 7: shoot at it anyway, it's something that can be on there.

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Speaker 7: But this all the the pilots are safe even though

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Speaker 7: these aircraft were affected.

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Speaker 4: So how would you characterize Iran's current missile and drone capabilities,

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Speaker 4: especially the ones that are being used in this war?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, working looking through some of the US InCom data

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Speaker 7: and all that, right, I think right now you're looking

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Speaker 7: at Iran having below oney five hundred missiles total for

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Speaker 7: these short range ballistic missiles and medium range ballistic missiles.

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Speaker 7: But the bigger tell there is actually on the missile

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Speaker 7: launchers themselves, because you're looking at somewhere between one hundred

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Speaker 7: and one hundred and fifty missile launchers total. Doesn't do

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Speaker 7: any good to have a missile if you can't get

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Speaker 7: in the air. And so the US and Israel have

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Speaker 7: been very very effective at targeting the stockpiles for the

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Speaker 7: missiles themselves, but also the launchers that shoot them, and

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Speaker 7: then the air defense capabilities have been very much decimated

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Speaker 7: at this point in time, which is why you see

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Speaker 7: so many F twenty two's, F fifteen's, F sixteens that

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Speaker 7: are inn F thirty five that are able to fly

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Speaker 7: somewhat unipeded in that area.

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Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up here

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Speaker 5: for this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: One of the big questions now is what happens next

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Speaker 2: in the war with Iran and with regime change there.

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Speaker 2: And Senator Mark Warner, who's a member of the Gang

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Speaker 2: of Eight, spoke with Bloomberg this weekend on Sunday, and

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Speaker 2: he said, but there are still questions about what comes

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Speaker 2: next for Iran?

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Speaker 8: Is the goal Iran's nuclear capability is it's the ballistic missiles.

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Speaker 8: Regime change. And let me acknowledge the fact that the

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Speaker 8: Iranian leadership, the Supreme Leader's taken out. I mean that

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Speaker 8: is good news. I mean, this regime is awful. But

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Speaker 8: I can tell you from the intelligence standpoint, we don't

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Speaker 8: have great visibility about who or what comes next.

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Speaker 2: And we're going to put that question now to our

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Speaker 2: next guest, Edward Price, non resident senior fellow at NYU

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Speaker 2: on Iran, joining us here in the studio. And I mean,

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Speaker 2: I guess that really is the question, right, what comes next?

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Speaker 2: Because what comes next could write the script for decades

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Speaker 2: to come in the Middle East.

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Speaker 9: I think that's correct. But there is no script, right,

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Speaker 9: I mean, this is regime change, light laite, right, all

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Speaker 9: with the caffeine, none of the sugar. And in planet

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Speaker 9: we're going to go and kill the bad guy, which,

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Speaker 9: by the way, if you give me a chance to

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Speaker 9: large you, is a good thing. But there is no

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Speaker 9: plan B. And so this is maybe a reaction long

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Speaker 9: term to the war on Terror and twenty years of

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Speaker 9: puddling around in the Middle East for no good reason.

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Speaker 9: And I think that it's something that we as American

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Speaker 9: citizens should think very carefully about, because we're not spreading

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Speaker 9: democracy so much as we are making the world safer

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Speaker 9: for democracy.

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Speaker 4: Well, do you want to touch on this redhead crossing

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Speaker 4: the Bloomberg terminal The UAE and Katar lobby allies to

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Speaker 4: persuade Trump to end Iran war soon. Going back to

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Speaker 4: our conversation with Ed Price here, I wanted to talk

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Speaker 4: about whether or not do you think that diplomacy could

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Speaker 4: still realistically de escalate this conflict?

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Speaker 2: No, because Trump Trump has said Iran wants to speak,

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Speaker 2: they want to come back to the table. Do we

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Speaker 2: believe this.

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Speaker 9: I mean, they always want to come back to the table.

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Speaker 9: But let's get down to brass tax. Iran has effectively

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Speaker 9: been at war with the West for some fifty years.

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Speaker 9: It has been undermining our society, funding terror. October the seventh,

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Speaker 9: by the way, has Iran's fingerprints all over it. So

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Speaker 9: they started a war that they can't finish and now

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Speaker 9: they want to talk. I mean that's absurd.

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Speaker 2: Earlier Defense Sebretary Pete Hegseth, in the first press conference

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Speaker 2: we really had since the war this weekend, basically said

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Speaker 2: when asked you know why now, he said, it's forty

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Speaker 2: seven years of a violent regime of a belligerent Iran.

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Speaker 2: He said, we didn't start this war, but under President Trump,

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Speaker 2: we are finishing it. So in terms of timing, is

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Speaker 2: this just because they were able to get the Ayatola

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Speaker 2: and his leaders in one place at one time and

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Speaker 2: saw opportunity.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, and why not? Frankly, I mean, this is effectively

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Speaker 9: the United States fighting and winning World War three before

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Speaker 9: World War three needs to be fought and won. And

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Speaker 9: it's very uncomfortable for Western populations because we all grew

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Speaker 9: up on the first mover of Adolf Hitler and we

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Speaker 9: think that moving first is morally run somehow. But I

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Speaker 9: would remind you your audience that international law is a

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Speaker 9: subfunction of Western morality. Western morality is not a subfunction

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Speaker 9: of law. So if we've created a situation for a

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Speaker 9: terr state to again, murder people on October seventh, unprovoked,

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Speaker 9: and they get molded themselves and they want to talk again.

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Speaker 9: I repeat myself, it's absurd.

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Speaker 4: You see that there is a foot rates between using

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Speaker 4: our hard power today and losing our soft power, including

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Speaker 4: the dollar standard tomorrow.

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Speaker 9: Explain that, well, I think what we're witnessing at two funerals,

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Speaker 9: the funeral of Iran's rule of terror, and that's a

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Speaker 9: good thing, and then of course the funeral of the

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Speaker 9: international rule of law, which is a mixed bag. I

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Speaker 9: just suggested that if international law is not working to

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Speaker 9: keep us safe, then it should be revisited. But breaking

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Speaker 9: international law in so brazen a way also encourages our

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Speaker 9: adversaries to do the same. And ultimately, what I mean

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Speaker 9: about the dollar is that we live off of our

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Speaker 9: soft power. We have alliances. People lend us a lot

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Speaker 9: of money that is used to buy very nice kit

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Speaker 9: that we saw in the last few days being used.

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Speaker 9: And so ultimately, if we lose our trust, if we

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Speaker 9: lose our soft power, that will reflect in the amount

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Speaker 9: of money that people are willing to lend us.

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Speaker 2: Just looking at your note here and you say Trump

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Speaker 2: at home is as dangerous to our Republic, as Trump

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Speaker 2: abroad is as powerful for the West. Just tell us

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Speaker 2: more about that.

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Speaker 9: I mean, this is the ultimate confusion, right, So someone

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Speaker 9: like me, small l liberal, very very hand ringing about

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Speaker 9: Trump for the last decade, and I've said before that

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Speaker 9: I think he's encouraging forces in our country that are

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Speaker 9: pre seventeen seventy six. They're the sort of forces that

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Speaker 9: don't necessarily believe in the rule of law at home.

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Speaker 9: One example, if I had to say, as an immigrant

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Speaker 9: to this country, as a naturalized citizen, what I think

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Speaker 9: the United States is in its essence, I would say,

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Speaker 9: no secret police, and yet we have ice on the streets.

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Speaker 9: So there's one example of what I mean about the

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Speaker 9: domestic problem in the Republic. With President Trump on the

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Speaker 9: other hand, again, I'm confused because abroad he's kind of

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Speaker 9: heading it out of the ballpark right now. He's crushing

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Speaker 9: our enemies. He's confiscating communists, and he's taking out the

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Speaker 9: bad guys. So what we would really want to see,

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Speaker 9: I think, is something closer to the rule of law

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Speaker 9: at home. Even if we're going into, as I say,

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Speaker 9: fighting win World War II before it needs to be fought,

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Speaker 9: but there will be a cost to this kind of

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Speaker 9: delinquent behavior.

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Speaker 4: What do you think of the potential ripple effects of this.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we've already seen it kind of spreading in

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Speaker 4: terms of the golf more broadly, but I'm curious what

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Speaker 4: you think. Maybe the extra layers may be.

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Speaker 6: Well, if we do it.

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Speaker 9: Properly and we truly crush the Iranian regime, good things

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Speaker 9: will happen, right, I mean, for one, there will be

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Speaker 9: freedom for women in that country. They've been oppressed brutally

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Speaker 9: so for decades. If you're asking about second order effects

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Speaker 9: in the wider regime and in the wider region, I

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Speaker 9: should say I always imagine the Ukraine War and the

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Speaker 9: war with Iran is one war, right, if you just

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Speaker 9: flip them up on its side.

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Speaker 2: I was going to ask about that.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, you can see quite clearly that it's one theater, right,

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Speaker 9: And you've got Culliningrad, You've got Poland and Ukraine and

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Speaker 9: then Iran, and they're all in a very similar area. Now,

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Speaker 9: why is that? Because the Russians are pushing fort and

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Speaker 9: in Russian history they always push forward to the sea.

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Speaker 9: They need warm more to ports. Maybe that will change

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Speaker 9: with climate chain, but that's why they're allied with it. Yeah,

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Speaker 9: that's why they're allied with Iran. And Iran needs Russian support.

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Speaker 9: So the first second order effect I think about is

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Speaker 9: in the Kremlin and what Putin is thinking about the

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Speaker 9: loss of an ally the potential loss of Iran.

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Speaker 2: I'm not asking you to get into President Trump's head,

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Speaker 2: but he has, you know, in the past criticized US

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Speaker 2: presidents for military intervention that resulted in the removal of

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Speaker 2: a world leader. He said that it would destabilize the

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Speaker 2: region in fuel terrorism. He's now president, and maybe to

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Speaker 2: him the world looks different. But why do you think,

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Speaker 2: because it really is quite an about face.

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Speaker 9: I mean President Trump is the master of the about face, right,

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Speaker 9: I mean the stuff that comes out of his mouth.

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Speaker 9: You can't keep up with it. You need one of

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Speaker 9: those FBI walls with the string and the sticky notes. Right,

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Speaker 9: It's too difficult. But I think the key difference is

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Speaker 9: boots on the ground. And if we go back to

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Speaker 9: the Global War on Terror, we committed our land forces

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Speaker 9: to a region that ultimately didn't want us there. I mean,

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Speaker 9: it's better now than it was twenty years ago. But

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Speaker 9: I'll stand by the until I'm dead.

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Speaker 5: The Iraq.

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Speaker 9: What was a huge mistake, a huge.

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Speaker 2: Mans and Trump said that as well, and he.

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Speaker 9: Was right, Okay, we should have hit around twenty five

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Speaker 9: years ago. Frankly, So it's a complex picture. But if

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Speaker 9: we are now at a point in our history where

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Speaker 9: we have the complex technology such that, as you say,

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Speaker 9: we can find all these bad guys in one room

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Speaker 9: and with the help of Israel take them out, why not.

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Speaker 4: I kind of want to continue with the theme of

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Speaker 4: previous Middle East conflicts. What have you taken away from

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Speaker 4: historical patterns or what we've seen in history and what's

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Speaker 4: being present today or maybe not present.

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Speaker 9: Well, I mean, as a brit there's a lot of

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Speaker 9: history that the British are responsible for, and there are

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Speaker 9: a lot of you know, I mean, we don't need

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Speaker 9: to go into the history of psychspeaker, but there's a

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Speaker 9: lot of lines in that area that are not necessarily

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Speaker 9: helpful to that region. And I think that the previous

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Speaker 9: imperial era that we were in had a very clear objective,

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Speaker 9: which was to avoid a single Arab power, right, So

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Speaker 9: that's why there's a lot of different countries in that region,

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Speaker 9: and I think that they've been arguing about that ever

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Speaker 9: since and of course there's also the split in Islam right,

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Speaker 9: so Iran is not mainstream Islam and has to come

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Speaker 9: up with other reasons to be relevant on the Arab street,

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Speaker 9: they're not Arabs. So probably a long term trend towards

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Speaker 9: less chaos. I say that tentatively and hopefully, but of

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Speaker 9: course it's a place that has a lot of wars,

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Speaker 9: and we've seen Afghanistan Pakistan recently, so I don't expect

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Speaker 9: that to stop soon.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of Britain, they have put their support behind thrown

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Speaker 2: their support behind the US and Israel, I believe, so

437
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 2: as Germany and France. Do you see how might their

438
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 2: participation their active what might their active participation look like?

439
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,199
Speaker 9: It's not even leading from behind with the current European

440
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 9: Union and the UK. I mean, I'm very disappointed in

441
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 9: the British Prime Minister. I feel like he's waiting for

442
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 9: the British Prime Minister to tell him what to do.

443
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 9: It's really not the way to do it. Let me

444
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 9: answer that by saying what I'd like to see, which

445
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 9: is a full throated Western alliance against this regime in

446
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 9: Iran that has been terrorizing US and Israel four years.

447
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 9: Get together, sort it out properly and get fully involved.

448
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 9: I mean, Germany needs to real anyway.

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00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 2: You know, I'm hearing though from others saying, you know,

450
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 2: the regime, the new regime may not be any better

451
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,959
Speaker 2: than the regime we just took out. What are your

452
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 2: thoughts on that?

453
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 9: It may not be any better, but it will certainly

454
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 9: be more scared, more scared?

455
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 5: Oh scared?

456
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 9: Oh yeah, so now we can There's a lot of

457
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 9: stick going and a lot less carrot.

458
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:26,800
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