1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:11,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 2: Okay, so thank you all. 3 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 3: The next paper is going presented by Omar barbierro Us 4 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:25,240 Speaker 3: Firm's Exposure to import tariffs a comparison of the eighteen 5 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 3: and twenty twenty five episodes. 6 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 4: Can I ask a personal question when you present a 7 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 4: paper like this at a research conference like this Boston 8 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 4: fed one, So you get nervous, and then I guess 9 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:41,560 Speaker 4: adjacent to that, like what's the best outcome for you 10 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 4: when you present the paper? And what's the sort of 11 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 4: nightmare scenario would it be someone like finding some fundamental 12 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 4: error in the methodology and like standing up in the 13 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 4: middle of the conference and being like, there's a serious 14 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 4: problem here. 15 00:00:55,360 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean many many nightmare scenarios king randomly and 16 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 5: then we went okay. 17 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: All right. 18 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 5: I would say the worst thing that can happen is 19 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 5: that you just say something wrong that sounds dishonest, almost 20 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 5: like you're trying to hide something like there's clearly a 21 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 5: data flaw, and then you don't highlight it, or you 22 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 5: don't you say in public, no, no, no, this is 23 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 5: not a problem, and everybody knows no, no, no, it's it's 24 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 5: a problem that's I think the profession is built on trust, 25 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 5: and if you if you lose that trust, it's it's. 26 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 3: It's quite bad. 27 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 4: That's Omar Barbiero, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve 28 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 4: Bank of Boston. He's getting ready to stand up in 29 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 4: front of a room full of other economists, journalist, academics, 30 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 4: and his employer and present a research paper tracking the 31 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 4: exposure of US businesses to import tariffs. 32 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 5: This is a paper written jointly with Slavic, Hillary and Alvaro, 33 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 5: where there happened to be in the room our excellent 34 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 5: research assistance Sophie and Lydia also who helped us with 35 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,359 Speaker 5: this paper. We're ready for the conference is still quite 36 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 5: preliminary and therefore will really value your comments on this. 37 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 4: How many individual pieces of data would you say were 38 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 4: involved in this particular study. 39 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 1: Okay, product code, they were around four hundred thousand, I 40 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 1: would say, and then you have to multiply that by 41 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: many different countries, and so you have to keep track 42 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: of that metrix. 43 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 5: The supply chain that I said was also quite fun 44 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 5: because it's kind of a network of companies and it 45 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 5: gets big, very very fast, and you have to track 46 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 5: it over time. I have to say, I mean we 47 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 5: have excellent I mean I have excellent call thors, we 48 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 5: have accidents. 49 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 6: It's a system. 50 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 5: We have excellent you know, computing power, Thank god that 51 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 5: can help us with that. And I don't know millions, 52 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 5: I ah, yes, millions. 53 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:10,399 Speaker 3: Yeah. 54 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 6: We are at the Boston SAIDs annual Flagship Research Conference. 55 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:22,800 Speaker 6: The sixty nine year of the event, and the theme 56 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 6: for twenty twenty five is quote the US economy and 57 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,359 Speaker 6: a changing global landscape, so focusing on how things like tariffs, 58 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 6: geopolitical tensions, industrial policy, AI, et cetera are reshaping US growth, inflation, 59 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 6: and the overall financial system. 60 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 4: Clearly, that is a very rich vein to mind for research, 61 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 4: and the format is a classic central bank research conference. 62 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 4: Economists and other researchers are invited to write a paper 63 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 4: for the event, they're assigned an official discustant, and then 64 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 4: they publicly present to a room full of their peers 65 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 4: while the audience gets a chance to ask questions or 66 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 4: sometimes critique. 67 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, you say it's a classic central bank research conference, 68 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 6: but we've never actually been to one. I don't think right, 69 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 6: it felt like a totally new environment. 70 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's true. We have gone to Jackson Hole for 71 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 4: the past few years, which is probably the most famous 72 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 4: FED research conference. But it's famous because the FED chair 73 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 4: usually makes a speech and that gets all the attention. 74 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 4: We've never actually been in the room at Jackson Hole 75 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 4: where they discuss the research papers being presented, because the 76 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 4: FED only allows a certain number of journalists into the room. 77 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 6: The room, the room, the room. Also, I think it's 78 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 6: unfair Kansas City FED gets to hold their conference in 79 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:39,720 Speaker 6: the most beautiful place on. 80 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 4: Earth instead of Kansas it's in the middle of August. 81 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 6: And then the Boston FED. I mean it's their choice, 82 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 6: but the Boston FED has theirs in Boston, which is lovely. 83 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 6: We both had a great time, but November. 84 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 4: It was very cold. Well, the upshot is that this 85 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 4: time we were actually in the proverbial room, so for 86 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 4: the first time we got to really experience and learn 87 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 4: what an economic research conference actually is. 88 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, this is actually very key because if you sort 89 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 6: of like wonder so okay, Jerome Poulos says something about, 90 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 6: you know, the expected relationship between tariffs and inflationary but 91 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 6: where did these ideas come from? Where do these assertions, 92 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 6: predictions and so forth? It comes from academic research. It 93 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 6: comes from the research backing that up. These conferences are 94 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 6: where the macro ideas sort of actually collide with a 95 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 6: real world data. 96 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, another way of thinking about it. It is where 97 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 4: the first serious drafts of tomorrow's policy debates are aired. 98 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 4: And we're going to give you a front row seat 99 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 4: to experience what those initial drafts and debates are actually like. 100 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 6: Welcome to the Boston FED sixty ninth Annual Flagship Economic Conference. 101 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 7: The research at the regional bank, at the board or 102 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 7: at the BIS. You do policy by policy, we mean, 103 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 7: you know, you advise your principles. In our case that 104 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 7: Susan Collins the Presidency of the Boston Fed. Preparations for 105 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 7: the FMC meeting or public engagements. 106 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,919 Speaker 4: That is Egon sa Kreichek. He's director of the Research 107 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 4: Department at the Boston Fed, and he's the one who 108 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 4: actually puts this event. 109 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 6: Together and is Omar's boss. 110 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, and he's an Omer's boss, right. He also gets 111 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 4: to choose the broad theme of the conference. 112 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 7: We've lived in a particular global order, rules based international system, globalizations, 113 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:43,480 Speaker 7: trade integrations. We just took those things for granted for decades, 114 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 7: and we're now grappling with monumental change, and we lack models, 115 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 7: we lack theoretical frameworks to understand these changes. You've heard 116 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 7: many debates about this data is no good, this is 117 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 7: the sausage, don't need it right? And how as one 118 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 7: go about it? So I think it's just it's just really, 119 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 7: I mean, it's an exciting time for researchers because we 120 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 7: have great questions, but I think it also underscores of 121 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 7: just how little we really know and and how challenging 122 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 7: it is then to make policy recommendations in this in 123 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 7: the period of such change. You know, the way the conference, 124 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 7: a conference like that comes together is, you know, we 125 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 7: sit together, my team of researchers. We we try to 126 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 7: pick a topic that would obviously be timely relevant to 127 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 7: policy makers. We confer with Susan and so forth, We 128 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 7: look you know, and so forth. So once we once 129 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 7: we kind of zero in on what the topic is, 130 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 7: we then have to identify the contributors to this. We 131 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 7: have a certain idea of what we want different sessions 132 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 7: to be. Then we get either academics or you know, 133 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 7: contributors to write papers for this. But you know, academics, 134 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 7: researchers write what they want to write so sometimes there's 135 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 7: a bit of a you know, so we're saying, you know, 136 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 7: gentlemanlike distance between the blurb and the ultimate paper that 137 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 7: gets written. But that's all right. We've always seen this. 138 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 7: This is very very standard, and you know, the idea 139 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 7: is that needs to the discussing the role of a 140 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 7: discuss and they needs to kind of bring that paper 141 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 7: and provide some context and you know, try to try 142 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 7: to fit it into the general theme. 143 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 6: So this particular conference, the theme has changed, right. And 144 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 6: one of the things we keep saying, but I think 145 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 6: it's true, is we're living through capital age history here. 146 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 6: We have the tariffs from the Trump administration, reversal, globalization, 147 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 6: new geopolitical risks, AI all of. 148 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 4: It right, And we're also still trying to figure out 149 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 4: stuff like what happened in relatively recent years, why did 150 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:47,719 Speaker 4: inflation actually spike during the pandemic. We're also in this 151 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 4: new era of industrial policy and we're trying to figure 152 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 4: out what that means for the economy. If we actually 153 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 4: want to do the stuff like make semiconductors or build 154 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 4: small modular nuclear reactors, we have to have some idea 155 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 4: of where we're going. 156 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 7: And we try to really keep it. You know, I 157 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 7: would say somewhat more accessible. I would say a bit interdisciplinary. 158 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 7: We try to reach a bit broader audience. Is somewhat 159 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 7: a typical conference, you know, your typical economic research conference 160 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 7: would feature slide after slide of equations graphs. 161 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 4: I'm laughing slightly because I saw some equations this morning 162 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 4: and the speaker is like, oh, well, as you can 163 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 4: see from the slide, and I'm thinking I cannot see no. 164 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 7: Right right, So you know, so this is I would say, 165 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 7: this is very light on this. If you're you know, 166 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 7: this is super light on this. And so forth, we 167 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 7: urge authors to try to write something that's more I 168 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 7: would say policy relevant. That the touches that can be 169 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:53,559 Speaker 7: communicated and stuff that rather than very very technical pieces. 170 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 7: You know, that is what the academic journalistand to specialize that. 171 00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 7: Hopefully it sparks. It sparks the idea, It sparks a 172 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 7: new paper. You know, it says, ah, you know what, 173 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 7: this is an interesting result, but I have maybe better 174 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 7: data to do that, so let me actually or there 175 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 7: was a there was a testable implication that somebody you 176 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 7: know brought up. Let me see if I can fledge 177 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 7: that out because I think I can provide sences. That's 178 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 7: how knowledge and conferences, you know, advances. It's a very 179 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 7: organic bit of a messy type of affair, and that 180 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,839 Speaker 7: you know, to be honest, many times don't things don't 181 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 7: they don't pan out. You know, I have files and 182 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 7: folders full of research ideas that you know never went anywhere. 183 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 4: But do you try and if you want to get 184 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 4: a sense of that process and the policy implications of 185 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 4: some of this research. Take a listen to the first 186 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:48,079 Speaker 4: paper presented at the conference. It's by Shepnham Klumley Auskin. 187 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 4: She's the Shreiber Family Professor of Economics over at Brown University. 188 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 6: I love economists and their their long title. The John 189 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 6: Maynard Knees Chair of the Ludwig viin me seasoned dud 190 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 6: See at the University of you know whatever. 191 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 4: Cane's chatt the Missus School would be an interesting mix. Anyway, 192 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 4: here's Shepnam presenting her paper. It is called Global Networks, 193 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 4: Risks and the US Economy. 194 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:17,199 Speaker 3: You know, paper after paper, we realize the issue with 195 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:19,199 Speaker 3: the conventional macro open economy view. 196 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 7: What is this view? 197 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 3: This view takes US as a relatively closed economy because 198 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 3: of the law, trade shares exports ten percent of GDP, 199 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 3: imports fourteen percent of GDP, and that, of course combines 200 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 3: with the fact that the US is governing the world 201 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:41,439 Speaker 3: in terms of dollar dominance and the financial markets. And 202 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 3: on top of that, US has an amazing central bank. 203 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 3: As we are all here right now, you know that 204 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 3: Federal Reserve acts as a global lender of last resort 205 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 3: when things goes soup. The benchmark implication of this view 206 00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 3: is that US has limited exposure to glow all risks. 207 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,839 Speaker 3: It would like to revisit the issue in terms of 208 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 3: asking directly have sensitive the US economy to global risks 209 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 3: once we account for full global trade, production and finance 210 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:19,439 Speaker 3: networks and really think about trades off and counterfactuals, and 211 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 3: basically revisit this issue that the fact that maybe your 212 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 3: trade shares are long. 213 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 4: We caught up with Chevnham after her presentation to better 214 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,440 Speaker 4: understand exactly what she's trying to do here. 215 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 3: All right, So, yes, we found something different because we 216 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 3: work with networks. 217 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 8: And let me explain what that is. 218 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 3: When you say networks again, the traditional we're first going 219 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 3: to think about, of course, the trade networks. Why because 220 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 3: the trade networks directly linked to supply chains, right, and 221 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 3: we already realized you know it is that those are vulnerable. 222 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 3: I mean, you know, shock after shock, starting with the pandemic, 223 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 3: you know told us that, yes, maybe kind of our 224 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 3: final goods trade or just if I focus on manufacturing, 225 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 3: not that big, but if I look at the supply chains, 226 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 3: value chains, then US is integrated to that, and then 227 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 3: that changes the thanks because that means even in the 228 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 3: added number you might not see that big. 229 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 9: Of exports and imports, there might be indirect exporture through 230 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,839 Speaker 9: all those things. Because when you think a network, you 231 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 9: know you are linked through trade. This is now where 232 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:26,839 Speaker 9: were also add a traditional view. 233 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 3: But you also have to think about the financing, right, 234 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 3: I mean, so the networks to us is trade networks, yes, 235 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 3: you know countries buying and selling, sectors buying and selling, 236 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 3: firms buying and selling from each other, but also financial networks. 237 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 3: I mean you know, investors investing in companies in other countries. 238 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,559 Speaker 3: You know, these supply chains finance by different investors in 239 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:47,679 Speaker 3: other countries. And on top of that, of course the 240 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 3: production right. I mean you know, so a product right 241 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,559 Speaker 3: now is assembled in one country, designed in another country, 242 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 3: manufacturing in another country, with parts coming from many many countries, 243 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 3: and skills and knowledge also coming from inny many countries. 244 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 3: So when you have this start of the comprehensive view 245 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:08,679 Speaker 3: of the network global network as trade, production, and finance, 246 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:13,839 Speaker 3: then I think US becomes very vulnerable to global shocks 247 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 3: and global risks. 248 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,560 Speaker 6: So you can see why there should be an important 249 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 6: area of research for the FED, right, Right. 250 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 4: And the conventional thinking has always been that the US 251 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 4: is kind of insulated from global shocks because it's so big, 252 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 4: because the dollar is so dominant. External factors it's thought, 253 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 4: don't really affect the US economy. 254 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 6: So much, right, And also we don't actually export that 255 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 6: much relative right speaking. 256 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 4: Right, we import. So that's the conventional view. But if 257 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 4: per Shebnam's research, the US is in fact more exposed 258 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 4: to global shocks than previously thought, if it's more intertwined 259 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 4: with the network of the global economy through second order effects, 260 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 4: then policy makers should be aware of that. 261 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 2: Right, It wasn't clear. This is an enormous body of work, 262 00:14:55,680 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 2: expanding several papers, hundreds of pages, all with many applications 263 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 2: and scenario. 264 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 6: That is Aaron Flahn, he's a principal economist at the 265 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 6: Boston FED and he's also the discussion for this particular paper. 266 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 4: The discustant role is really interesting. 267 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, this was probably one of the most fascinating sort 268 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 6: of dynamics I knew existed but didn't quite appreciate how 269 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 6: it works. So basically, every presenter gets paired with an 270 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 6: official discussion whose job is just to interpret and critique, frankly, 271 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 6: the paper for a wider audience. 272 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 2: So those are my main comments. I do just want 273 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 2: to emphasize that what sometimes doing here is policy relevant 274 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 2: research at its finance. It's our profession working at its 275 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 2: finess fly answering these very timely questions in ways. 276 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 7: That authors are very close to the paper. You wrote 277 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 7: these details, and you can see in the presentations, right, 278 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 7: they know insight out and stuff that, so they provide 279 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 7: a position. The Really what a discussing does is sort 280 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 7: of essentially, let me translate what the author does for 281 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 7: the broader audience. Right, A good discussing role is really 282 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 7: to sort of reframe the paper, pull out key takeaways, 283 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 7: and then provide some constructive comments. 284 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 4: But sometimes things get a little awkward. 285 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 6: Definitely awkward, but you know, everyone's still very polite, still. 286 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 4: Very polite, Yes, but more on that after this break. 287 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 4: Let's go to another paper. This one is by Tamaso Monicelli. 288 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 4: He's a professor of economics at Universita Butchoni, and his 289 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 4: paper is called Supply chain Uncertainty, Energy Prices and Inflation, 290 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 4: and it is actually about one of our favorite topics, Joe, 291 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 4: supply chains. 292 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 8: Now that's right, because that's exactly right. So supply chain 293 00:16:55,520 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 8: disruptions can sort of change state of the economy, so 294 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 8: the environment, that's our idea where farms make production and 295 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 8: pricing decisions, right. 296 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,679 Speaker 6: And so the key idea is that. 297 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 8: The state of the world in which farms operate right 298 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:22,639 Speaker 8: can can change underlying So as economists we say that 299 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 8: the state of the economy changes even starting from potentially 300 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 8: minor events along the supply chain. So we make the 301 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 8: example of this apparently small episode like in the Sewez 302 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 8: Canal two years ago, sort of ship container shipping oil 303 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 8: and other inputs got stuck for. 304 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 3: A few days. 305 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 10: We remember, well literally right, but that was the. 306 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 8: Episode sort of got resolved in a few days, but 307 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:57,920 Speaker 8: I didn't have the time to show the data. But 308 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 8: then this the effect on transportation disruptions. Okay, along supply 309 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 8: chains lasted four months. Okay. So the analogy here is 310 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 8: think of an airport, okay, like a hub. Okay, what 311 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 8: a lot of flights? So how many airports function as hubs? Okay, 312 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 8: many flights coming from different directions, and right, you can 313 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 8: have a disruption like a single delay on a single 314 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 8: flight in the in the in the hub. But then 315 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 8: the propagates, you know, along the day and then across 316 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 8: many different flights and amplifying the delay downstream. 317 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 4: A cascade effect. 318 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 8: Yees. 319 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 6: So at the heart of Tomas's research is the sort 320 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,719 Speaker 6: of very important question are supply chain disruptions real? Are 321 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 6: they real thing? Or are they simply manifestations or symptoms 322 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:52,120 Speaker 6: of access demand may be caused by too much physcal stimulus. 323 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, so after the pandemic, a lot of people criticize 324 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 4: the government for handing out checks to people and businesses, 325 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 4: helping supposedly to fan inflation. But actually, if small supply 326 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,880 Speaker 4: chain disruptions can reverberate for longer than previously thought through 327 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:12,399 Speaker 4: energy prices or whatever, then per Tomasa's research, they can 328 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 4: be a pretty important source of inflation. And the important 329 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 4: thing is that it's not the size of the supply 330 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 4: chain shock that matters. It's the actual volatility itself, the 331 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 4: uncertainty that matters for inflation. 332 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 6: So again, I think, you know, you can see why 333 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 6: this would be of interest to policymakers. Even five years 334 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 6: after the pandemic, we're still trying to figure out exactly 335 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 6: what happened, and we'll probably be researching that for years. 336 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 7: Totally. 337 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 8: Yes, so Tierra, in the in our search, we emphasize 338 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:47,360 Speaker 8: the interaction, So the complementarity between you know, shocks two, 339 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,679 Speaker 8: let's say the price of oil. Okay, that typically central 340 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 8: banks look at, right, but they have a typical altitude 341 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,880 Speaker 8: let's say normal times. If there are all shocks, yes, 342 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 8: we should monitor that those don't feed are not too persistent, 343 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 8: they don't feed onto inflation expectations and so on. But 344 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:10,680 Speaker 8: their activist is typically let's look through Okay, this oil price. 345 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 8: All prior oil prices jump around very much in the markets. 346 00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 8: But here we're saying even the same original let's say 347 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 8: oil price shocks or energy gas price shocks, they can 348 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 8: have a very different amplified effects on inflation, Okay, depending 349 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 8: on whether the state of supply chain is disrupted or not. Okay, 350 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 8: So it's really the interract so it's not really that 351 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 8: we believe that we emphasize supply chain shocks. We say 352 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 8: typical supply shocks, like oil shocks or gas price shocks. 353 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:54,440 Speaker 8: They can get really amplified and in a very persistent 354 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,639 Speaker 8: way if the underlying conditions of supply chains are disrupted, 355 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,400 Speaker 8: so that that state of the economy should be monitored, 356 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 8: and in those states of the world, the central bent 357 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 8: should be very, very reactive, way more reactive to oil 358 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 8: shocks or energy price shocks than in periods where supply 359 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 8: chain disruptions are minimal. 360 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 4: So that's the basic thrust of the paper, and the 361 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,639 Speaker 4: data seem to bear it to Masso's thesis out, but 362 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 4: things got a little awkward when it was time for 363 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 4: the discussion. 364 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 10: I'm Ludwig Straub. I'm a professor of economics at Harvard. 365 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 10: I am a quantitative macroeconomist, so I try to build 366 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 10: models that describe the macroeconomy and can be used for 367 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 10: policy analysis and forecasting. I'm a discussion of a paper 368 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 10: on supply chain uncertainty and energy shocks and how those 369 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 10: two relate to the post COVID inflation episode. 370 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 6: Right as Ludwig puts it, being a discussiant is a 371 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 6: pretty big commitment, and we should just mention here that 372 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 6: neither the researchers nor the discussiants are getting paid for 373 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 6: their time. They're doing this for other reasons. Obviously the 374 00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 6: contribute to policy, but there's another big motivation that we'll 375 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,479 Speaker 6: get into in a minute. So here's Lidvig. 376 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,200 Speaker 10: So not everybody has time and energy to do this. 377 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 10: In my case, I love being at the Boston FED 378 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 10: and I'm close, so it's not a big travel to 379 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:19,399 Speaker 10: come here. And yeah, so I said yes. And you know, 380 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 10: about a month before the conference, you typically receive the 381 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 10: paper and then you spend a significant amount of time 382 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 10: I'd say maybe half a week a week, you know, 383 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 10: of your research time with the paper and trying to 384 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 10: understand the ins and outs, trying to understand the empirics 385 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 10: the model, and then hopefully give a balanced view of 386 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 10: the paper during the discussion. 387 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,959 Speaker 4: And from what we saw at the conference, it feels 388 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 4: like discussions can have different styles. Some basically summarize the 389 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 4: paper and explain why it's relevant, and others others, you know, 390 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 4: maybe pick it apart very critically. Here's Ludwig talking about 391 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 4: the discussions. 392 00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 10: Some tend to be more like what you just mentioned 393 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 10: and more like the latter that you know, pick up 394 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 10: hard papers and kind of come across as a little 395 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:09,640 Speaker 10: bit destructive rather than constructive. You know, the last discussing 396 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 10: at the conference was a lot more constructive, for example, 397 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,880 Speaker 10: and would be you know, building off the author's results 398 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 10: and you know, showing them what they could do next 399 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 10: with with the paper. Some are very very kind and 400 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:26,360 Speaker 10: just praise the results, which I tend to. I tend 401 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:27,919 Speaker 10: to try to be somewhere in between. 402 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 3: You know. 403 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,679 Speaker 10: I tend to shed some critical light on the author's 404 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 10: results if that, you know, is something that I think 405 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 10: helps understand the paper. But I also want to be 406 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 10: constructive and I want to be kind to the authors too, 407 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 10: so you know, you want to kind of balance those 408 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 10: two sides. 409 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 4: I guess and Loudveig did shed some critical light on 410 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 4: Tamaso's research. 411 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 6: Suggestions for improvement, right, suggestions. 412 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 4: For improvement, right, that's a good way of putting it. 413 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 10: So as the economy reopened, as we had ample fiscal stimulus, 414 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 10: and I tend to think that that means we ran 415 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,200 Speaker 10: up a marginal cost curve, meaning you know, costs went 416 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 10: up just because there was a lot of demand, and 417 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 10: so bottlenecks emerged, ports got clogged, and I think that 418 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 10: alone can lead to an increase in what looks like 419 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 10: supply chain issues, even though they're not really the root 420 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 10: cause of things. Now, I still think this paper has 421 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 10: a lot of merits to it, but you know, I 422 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,919 Speaker 10: tend to think that not all that looks like an 423 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 10: energy shock is really truly a shock, rather than just 424 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 10: a consequence of increased demand. 425 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 4: TAMASO also use the Baltic Dry index as a proxy 426 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 4: for shipping costs, which, as anyone who has spent a 427 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 4: bit of time on finance Twitter will tell you, is 428 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,159 Speaker 4: an index that gets criticized a. 429 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 10: Lot, exactly. And then if it's just one episode in 430 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 10: that time series that's kind of responsible for some of 431 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 10: the results, then I would worry about that. 432 00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 8: Now. 433 00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 10: I don't know if that's exactly what's going on, but 434 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 10: did play around a little bit and it was not 435 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 10: as robust as you know, I was maybe hoping it 436 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,240 Speaker 10: or day, or maybe hoping it. 437 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 6: To be so tracy speaking of Twitter. You know, look, 438 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 6: both you and I are used to getting criticism, right, 439 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 6: but even if you're used to it, I think it 440 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 6: would be pretty uncomfortable the hell of your work sort 441 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 6: of publicly criticized by one of your peers in front 442 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 6: of a big group of peers. 443 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I would think so too, although Tomasso actually seemed 444 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:26,119 Speaker 4: pretty fine with it. 445 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:30,400 Speaker 8: No, okay, so that you learned learn out of experience 446 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 8: through time, right, that you have to filter the reaction 447 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,399 Speaker 8: of the audience and get the good and the bad signals. So, 448 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 8: first of all, I had great comments, very useful. I 449 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 8: both myself and my coat are very happy. The discussion 450 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 8: was fantastic. 451 00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 6: I know him. 452 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,680 Speaker 8: He is a fantastic researcher. He's one of the best macroeconomists. 453 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 8: I admire his researchers. I was very happy that it 454 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,399 Speaker 8: was pleased with the with the with the paper, but 455 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 8: also that the audience had that very interesting comments that 456 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:03,879 Speaker 8: only will be very useful for for keeping up with 457 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:08,119 Speaker 8: the research. And and again, uh, sometimes you get some 458 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,639 Speaker 8: more aggressive comments. But you know, there's a there's a 459 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 8: sort of there's an interesting role type of dynamics that 460 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 8: happens in academic conferences that you have to internalize. 461 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 6: Cray, I really do. I want to go to one 462 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 6: of those workshops that you hear about where the you know, 463 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 6: the young the young student or the young professor, maybe 464 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,159 Speaker 6: someone applying for a job. They're presenting their paper, and 465 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,160 Speaker 6: then the old professor in the back of the room 466 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 6: sort of puts on a big show and humiliates them. 467 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 4: At this point, that is a very interesting point because 468 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 4: Tomaso says, the days of older professors publicly humiliating younger 469 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 4: students are pretty much over. 470 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 8: That happens in sort of a behind secret doors in 471 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 8: a way. No, but but especially as of late, the 472 00:26:56,640 --> 00:27:01,399 Speaker 8: profession is discussing that a lot. So we we we 473 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 8: now are becoming much more aware that the climate, especially 474 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,399 Speaker 8: in economics, much more than in other social sciences or 475 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 8: art sciences, that the climate during seminars, during presentations, especially 476 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 8: within closed door seminars might be might be sort of 477 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 8: not conducive for for for younger researchers to actually take 478 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 8: risks and uh and and and learn from the art. 479 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,639 Speaker 8: And so we are becoming way more mindful that it 480 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 8: is very important to to keep it, to keep a 481 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 8: civilized climate in in in in in research environments. 482 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,160 Speaker 4: Speaking of civilized climates, we should just mention that things 483 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 4: can get pretty heated in the public discussion too. 484 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,159 Speaker 6: Right, So this is also part of it where it 485 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,399 Speaker 6: tend to get a chance to ask questions or often 486 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,120 Speaker 6: make their own points about the papers being questioned. Many 487 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 6: many statements in the form of a question. 488 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,119 Speaker 4: Yeah, lots of that, and things got a little well, 489 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 4: I don't want to say combative, but loud or loud. 490 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,640 Speaker 4: Things got kind of loud. After a paper was presented 491 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 4: on the idea of policy trade offs, so trade offs 492 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 4: between geopolitical risks and economic risks. 493 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 11: Perhaps it's too early to tell. Standard models of the 494 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:21,720 Speaker 11: type that Shemnham talked about without the nominal rigidities would 495 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,440 Speaker 11: also predict optimal uniform tariffs that are very high twenty 496 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 11: forty percent range. So the current environment looks pretty good. 497 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 4: The voice you hear is Paul Antris. He is a 498 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 4: professor at Harvard giving the keynote address on the first 499 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:35,920 Speaker 4: day of the conference. 500 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 11: According to this models, we are in a sweet spot. 501 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 11: I'm not so sure why, because the standard models are 502 00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 11: models that I think have features that I think I 503 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 11: am not in line with many of the things that 504 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 11: I see when I look at the data. 505 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,480 Speaker 4: His presentation, the Evolving role of the United States and 506 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,720 Speaker 4: Global value chains, it touched on some of the same 507 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 4: areas that Shevnham had covered earth And the beauty of 508 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 4: a conference like this is that she was sitting right 509 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,000 Speaker 4: in the audience and she was able to weigh in 510 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 4: right then and there. 511 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 3: You just raised couple issues and I realized maybe I 512 00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 3: wasn't clear during my presentation. I fully agree on the 513 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 3: whole firm level and how the input output data we 514 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 3: have is kind of this sausage, but I would disagree 515 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 3: that you do want to understand how the sausage made 516 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 3: so that we can do better. 517 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 6: Right, So the economists were fighting. 518 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 4: Well, actually I asked Shepnham about this later and here's 519 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 4: what she said. 520 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 3: Well, actually, I characterized that is a very healthy debate 521 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 3: and a little bit also, you know the artifact of 522 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 3: these conferences where you have twenty five minutes to present, right, 523 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 3: so I didn't have that much time. And then, of 524 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 3: course because I didn't show the parts where we use 525 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 3: the firm level data and more, you know, discipline the 526 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 3: macro model with more you know, micro identified elasticities and 527 00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 3: all that. 528 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 4: Joe, all of this raises the question of why economists 529 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,720 Speaker 4: choose to do this in the first place. And you know, 530 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,640 Speaker 4: you spend a huge chunk of time writing a paper, 531 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 4: you probably have a few research assistants that are working 532 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,840 Speaker 4: on it, and they could be doing something else, and. 533 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:14,760 Speaker 6: Then it gets scrutinized in this very public way. 534 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 11: Maybe you felt that I was I was speaking on you. 535 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 11: I didn't mean to do that. Now, of course, I 536 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,600 Speaker 11: take your point. Let me just push back though, in the. 537 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 4: Sense that obviously one of the motivations is the policy 538 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 4: aspect economists. I think many of them want to inform 539 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 4: policy in an accurate and useful way. That's pretty obvious. 540 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 4: But there was also something that I didn't quite realize 541 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,080 Speaker 4: peer review and publishing. People want to be published. 542 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, look, I get it, Believe me, I get it. Researchers, yes, 543 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 6: they want to influence policy. Who doesn't, But they also 544 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 6: want to get their papers rubber stamped by other economists 545 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 6: and then published in the most prestigious academic journals. And 546 00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,040 Speaker 6: so one thing I wondered is whether there's a ten between, 547 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 6: you know, just from the economist's perspective, is there some 548 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 6: sort of tension between the goal of writing a paper 549 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 6: is actually useful for making better policy or just sort 550 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 6: of maximizing your chances of getting into a peer review journal. 551 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that is a very fair question, and 552 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 4: Shepnam talked about that too. 553 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:21,800 Speaker 3: Yes, this is the story of my life because this 554 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 3: is this is a very uh serious tension, and I'm 555 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 3: hoping we will make the best use of these times 556 00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 3: now we are living in to uh to change this 557 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 3: because yes, unfortunately, academia UH publishing values very narrow research 558 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 3: and very tightly defined specialized research. 559 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 8: UH. 560 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,719 Speaker 3: And that's why economists are in silos right there are 561 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 3: there are labor economists, there are macroeconomists, there are io economists, 562 00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,960 Speaker 3: international economists, finance economists, and generally these groups don't talk 563 00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 3: to each other much and they just do one thing. 564 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,719 Speaker 3: But but then you want to do post relevant research, 565 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,800 Speaker 3: you talk to postmakers. And then the minute you start 566 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 3: talking to postmakers and spend time in post institutions, you 567 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,160 Speaker 3: realize these problems don't come like that. Oh, here's you know, 568 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 3: a problem about you know, labors, I need labor economers. 569 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 3: Here's a problem about like, you know, uh, financial markets. 570 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 3: I mean the problem about mother post. The problems are linked. 571 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 3: The problems are linked, and economics profession actually is is 572 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 3: capable of you know, answering those problems, creating solutions for 573 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 3: those problems if you know, these insights from these different 574 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,880 Speaker 3: sub fields come together, which is you know what I 575 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,840 Speaker 3: try to do. Uh, And I'm hoping you know which 576 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,920 Speaker 3: kind of you know, Academy publishing you know doesn't value 577 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 3: that much. But I am you know, I'm an optimist. 578 00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 8: I'm hopeful. 579 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:53,880 Speaker 3: I think these are the times people now coming together, 580 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 3: writing with each other more and you know, realizing this 581 00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 3: more and more. So hopefully you know, we'll we'll all 582 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 3: down to a better pattern this. Yeah. 583 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,440 Speaker 11: So as I consumer, so if everything you're saying is right, 584 00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,640 Speaker 11: so that's awesome. I would encourage you to kind of 585 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 11: like obviously you want to come in and give some numbers, 586 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 11: but give us like versions of the model that shut 587 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:15,960 Speaker 11: down this down And you're telling me the real not 588 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 11: itself generates a lot of things that are not in 589 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:21,720 Speaker 11: standard models. So I'm really excited, and i'd like to say, and. 590 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:24,239 Speaker 3: I think I agree, you can do this not thing 591 00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 3: as little as you want. That's where the data is 592 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,560 Speaker 3: going to help. You need data power. But you have 593 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 3: to put this in a macro model. I mean, otherwise 594 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 3: you are not going to go back to inflation, out 595 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:34,440 Speaker 3: to trade off and all these post questions, you have 596 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 3: to put it on. 597 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,080 Speaker 11: I agree with that, So all right, I will step 598 00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 11: in in here. 599 00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,960 Speaker 7: We have an iron cage in there, and I have 600 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:44,280 Speaker 7: things well, well, we'll put that on a on a YouTube. 601 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:44,560 Speaker 7: I'll have. 602 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 4: You know, Joe, there was in fact one major policymaker 603 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,240 Speaker 4: in the room along with everyone else, and that is 604 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:07,400 Speaker 4: Susan Collins. 605 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,800 Speaker 6: That's right, directly. There are two prominent Susan Collins. This 606 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,760 Speaker 6: one is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 607 00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:15,759 Speaker 6: and she was there the whole time, sitting in the 608 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 6: front row. Susan herself actually was an academic. She taught 609 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,720 Speaker 6: at Harvard and Georgetown and the University of Michigan. 610 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,000 Speaker 12: Right, there are lots of themes going on. I have 611 00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:31,320 Speaker 12: to say that I'm struck by the sense that understanding 612 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 12: some of the complexities may change traditional ways of thinking 613 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 12: about things. So that's a theme that I'm hearing. So 614 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 12: the first paper it was really you if you account 615 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:52,560 Speaker 12: for the linkages through networks that include not only trade 616 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:56,720 Speaker 12: flows but also financial flows, and you know, and across 617 00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,680 Speaker 12: sectors and countries, not just through country, but add the 618 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:05,880 Speaker 12: sector component in we may historically, with simpler, more traditional 619 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,719 Speaker 12: models have underestimated the potential for larger and more persistent 620 00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,719 Speaker 12: effects of different kinds of shocks. And then similarly, the 621 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,480 Speaker 12: second paper had kind of a similar theme that when 622 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 12: you really focus on some of the supply chain connections, 623 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:25,280 Speaker 12: increases and uncertainty can make a shock have a bigger impact. 624 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:29,960 Speaker 12: So putting the different things making those connections, that's complicated work. 625 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 12: I'm really glad that we have experts who are digging 626 00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 12: in and able to explain them and present them for 627 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,120 Speaker 12: us and have us ask questions and try to understand 628 00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 12: them better. 629 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,840 Speaker 4: So Susan mentioned ideas, and one thing I'm very curious 630 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 4: about is how the ideas being presented in these papers 631 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:49,799 Speaker 4: actually filter through into policy osmosis. Right, well, right, I'm 632 00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,920 Speaker 4: sure there's some of that, But also, like, do you 633 00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:57,000 Speaker 4: think Susan is taking the most interesting paper and attaching 634 00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,080 Speaker 4: it to an email and sending it off to Tom 635 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,640 Speaker 4: Barkin at the Richmond and being like, you have to 636 00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 4: read book. 637 00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,760 Speaker 6: I would, Hey, Tom, here's something you might find interesting. 638 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:05,120 Speaker 3: Yeah. 639 00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,080 Speaker 12: So, the lots of different ways. So sometimes you know, 640 00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 12: sometimes we have the time to go to each other's conferences, 641 00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,080 Speaker 12: and it's hard, right, because we there's a lot going on. 642 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,840 Speaker 12: So sometimes people, sometimes my colleagues will actually be sitting 643 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:22,480 Speaker 12: in and hear from themselves. Some of their research teams 644 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:27,000 Speaker 12: are often tuning in, whether in person or virtually. Our 645 00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,799 Speaker 12: research teams talk to each other, they're very active relationships. 646 00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,960 Speaker 12: They co author papers, they're engaged in that way, and 647 00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,279 Speaker 12: certainly if they're things that are really informative for me, 648 00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 12: I will share them with colleagues in a variety of 649 00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 12: different ways. Maybe not as much attach the paper. You know, 650 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,480 Speaker 12: we have a lot to read and to go through. 651 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,279 Speaker 12: I would try to distill why I'm really interested, but 652 00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,880 Speaker 12: you know, we're always looking for important ideas, trying to 653 00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 12: be better informed. That's something that's important to all of us. 654 00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:57,120 Speaker 12: And again, thank you for joining us for the sixty 655 00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,520 Speaker 12: ninth conference. We're delighted to have odd lots here. 656 00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:14,640 Speaker 4: So that was the Boston Fed's Research Conference show. 657 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 6: It was great, But before we go, should tell people 658 00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:18,359 Speaker 6: how Omar's presentation went. 659 00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,320 Speaker 4: Oh yeah, So we started this episode talking to Boston 660 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:24,719 Speaker 4: Fed economist Omar Barbiero, and I feel like he was 661 00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,640 Speaker 4: under more pressure than most because he was presenting not 662 00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:29,800 Speaker 4: just in front of its peers, but in front of 663 00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:34,160 Speaker 4: his actual boss, actually multiple bosses, because there's Susan Collins, 664 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:37,920 Speaker 4: but also egon to Krys Check, so his boss and 665 00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:39,120 Speaker 4: his boss's boss. 666 00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:41,720 Speaker 6: Yeah, and his was actually the last paper of the conference. 667 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:42,920 Speaker 6: I thought it went really well. 668 00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:44,759 Speaker 7: That's some interesting insights on that. 669 00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:46,000 Speaker 6: Thank you very much. 670 00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:49,239 Speaker 3: Exictarly what I have to say. 671 00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,880 Speaker 2: I think it's an exciting effort, very impressive. 672 00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:54,200 Speaker 10: Did a collection the reset of results. 673 00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:55,400 Speaker 2: It's a muscle. 674 00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,799 Speaker 8: I think it's a presentition was very interesting. I think the. 675 00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,680 Speaker 6: The effort is it's quite important. 676 00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:06,439 Speaker 2: This is really cool to see. 677 00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:10,759 Speaker 3: Have three quick Okay, this is a great paper, and 678 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,040 Speaker 3: I fully agree with Andrea that this is actually huge work. 679 00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,400 Speaker 3: So you didn't even mention, but we are also now 680 00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:19,280 Speaker 3: matching Panjia. It's the larger set. 681 00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:20,280 Speaker 6: Of for hoorai. 682 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,120 Speaker 4: That's a good outcome. And you know, I should just 683 00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:27,320 Speaker 4: mention Joe. We've obviously been summarizing all these papers because 684 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,600 Speaker 4: we're trying to compress a day and a half of 685 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:35,359 Speaker 4: discussion into I don't know, forty sixty minutes. But all 686 00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:39,360 Speaker 4: of these papers are available online at the Boston Fed's website. 687 00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:41,960 Speaker 6: Totally and if you want to actually see the conference itself, 688 00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,799 Speaker 6: if this episode if somehow this episode was not enough 689 00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,640 Speaker 6: for you. Actually, the entire conference is on videos. You 690 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,360 Speaker 6: could see all of the presentations and the discussions and 691 00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,520 Speaker 6: so forth. It's all available online. 692 00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,040 Speaker 4: But I'm so glad we went because I feel like 693 00:38:56,120 --> 00:39:00,920 Speaker 4: I have a much better understanding of how policy actually develops, 694 00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:05,400 Speaker 4: how research develops, and what economists are kind of aiming 695 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:06,320 Speaker 4: for totally. 696 00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,080 Speaker 6: So when we went to Boston, you know, in my mind, 697 00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:12,320 Speaker 6: I was thinking that we're there to learn more about economics, 698 00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:13,960 Speaker 6: which of course we did, and there are all kinds 699 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:17,080 Speaker 6: of interesting ideas on supply chains, inflation, all this stuff 700 00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,280 Speaker 6: we talked about. But it was also and I hadn't 701 00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:21,839 Speaker 6: appreciated this, it was a sociology trip. Like I learned 702 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:26,799 Speaker 6: about the sociology of how academic work works, the relationship 703 00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,840 Speaker 6: between academic work and policy and stuff, which is just 704 00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,560 Speaker 6: one of these things that of course intuitively is very important, 705 00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,279 Speaker 6: but I don't think like anyone really thinks about and 706 00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,080 Speaker 6: when you think about, like how economists could be under 707 00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,200 Speaker 6: this sort of dual pressure of like do I want 708 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,279 Speaker 6: to influence policy and is there some cost if I'm 709 00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:47,400 Speaker 6: focusing on maximizing total published output. You could see some 710 00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:50,120 Speaker 6: real interesting tensions that emerge in that process. 711 00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,480 Speaker 4: Right, it's sort of a microcosm of academia. I guess 712 00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 4: which we got to study for a day and a half, 713 00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,680 Speaker 4: so I don't know. Maybe maybe next year we'll be 714 00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:00,799 Speaker 4: in the room at Jackson Hall. 715 00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,759 Speaker 6: We can hope if anyone at the Kansas City Fed 716 00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:04,680 Speaker 6: is listening. 717 00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:06,200 Speaker 4: All right, shall we leave it there? 718 00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:06,960 Speaker 6: Let's leave it there. 719 00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,000 Speaker 4: This has been another episode of the Audthoughts podcast. I'm 720 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,800 Speaker 4: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 721 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,880 Speaker 6: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 722 00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,880 Speaker 6: Big thanks to Susan Collins and the rest of the 723 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,920 Speaker 6: Boston FED for inviting us to observe and participate in 724 00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,040 Speaker 6: their conference. And once again all the people who took 725 00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,560 Speaker 6: the time to chat with us, We really appreciate them. 726 00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,879 Speaker 6: You should go to the Boston Fed's website and really 727 00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:33,040 Speaker 6: check out those papers and presentations, all of it excellent. 728 00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,759 Speaker 6: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armitt, dash Ol 729 00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:38,960 Speaker 6: Bennett who actually joined us on the trip. He's at 730 00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,720 Speaker 6: Dashbod and Cal Brooks at Calebrooks. For more Odd Lots content, 731 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,960 Speaker 6: go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots with a 732 00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,480 Speaker 6: daily newsletter and all of our episodes, and you can 733 00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:49,560 Speaker 6: chout about all of these topics twenty four to seven 734 00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:52,840 Speaker 6: in our discord discord dot gg slash odline. 735 00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:55,279 Speaker 4: And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you want to 736 00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:59,120 Speaker 4: send us on more sociological trips to research conferences, then 737 00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:02,680 Speaker 4: please leave us positive review on your favorite podcast platform. 738 00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,680 Speaker 4: And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can 739 00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,920 Speaker 4: listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All 740 00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,080 Speaker 4: you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on 741 00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:14,720 Speaker 4: Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.