1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg pim L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,159 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg pm L podcast on iTunes, 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. Yahoo shares were down 7 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: more than six percent after Yahoo disclosed after hours on 8 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 1: Wednesday that cyber thieves in two siphoned information from more 9 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: than one billion Yahoo accounts, including users, email addresses, scrambled 10 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,279 Speaker 1: account passwords, and dates of birth. In other words, all 11 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: the information that they could use to hack into other 12 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 1: areas and steal people's information and uh and possibly more. 13 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 1: I want to bring in Shia Overday, my fellow cad 14 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: Fly columnist here at Bloomberg, to give a sense of what, Yeah, 15 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: who could have and should have done to prevent this 16 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 1: from growing into such an extensive problem? Sara, Could Yahoo 17 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,839 Speaker 1: have done anything prevent this? Yeah? I mean the issue 18 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: is that some of this is ancient history, right. The 19 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 1: two now cyber attacks that Yahoo is disclosed in the 20 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: last few months affected more than a billion accounts and 21 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,279 Speaker 1: then the one day disclosed in September a separate cyber 22 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: attack also from that affected more than five million accounts. 23 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: So in some sense this is a little bit old news, 24 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: but it's very clear from the two hacks, this is 25 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: a company that had a hard time, um, you know, 26 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 1: securing information on its users, and in some by some accounts, 27 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 1: they did things that bolstered its business that put its 28 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 1: user information in jeopardy and ignored warnings from whose own 29 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 1: security staff when they did things that that put the 30 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 1: information at risk. This also has created or highlights the 31 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: creation of a market for the stolen data. I understand 32 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: about the price tech about three hundred thousand dollars for 33 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: a complete set of this data that includes personal information, 34 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: as you said, sell security numbers, passwords. Yeah. I mean 35 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: this is the scary thing, obviously for all of us 36 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: who live our lives online and have all this personal 37 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: data online, is that you know, there's a criminal enterprise 38 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 1: that makes money from selling stolen digital information to other 39 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: cyber thieves who can use it to kind of delve 40 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 1: deeper into our digital and physical lives. Ransomware, for example, 41 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: a recent I were just talking earlier this morning about 42 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: an attack that occurred in the San Francisco public transit 43 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: system at the end of November, where it was shut 44 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: down because thieves managed to get or hackers rather managed 45 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: to get into the electronic technology system. Yeah, I mean 46 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 1: this is sort of a cost of doing business online, right, 47 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 1: is that cyber attacks and the consequence of cyber attacks 48 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: have become sadly in place. So Verizon has previously had 49 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: agreed to purchase uh Yahoo. Um, you wrote about how 50 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 1: this cyber fail could cut one billion dollars from the 51 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,519 Speaker 1: price tag the Verizon was willing to pay for Yahoo. 52 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: Why would Verizons still want Yahoo given how tainted its 53 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 1: reputation has become. Yeah, that's a fair question. So just 54 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 1: to clarify, Verizon is is agreed to buy Yahoo's core 55 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 1: internet businesses. The weird thing about Yahoo is that the 56 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 1: majority of the company's market value is tied up in 57 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: these stakes. It owns in two independent internet companies, Ali 58 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: Baba of China and Yahoo Japan. So the core bits 59 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: of Yahoo, the parts of the company that we all know, um, 60 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: are the ones that Verizon has agreed to buy. Verizon's 61 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: logic here to do the deal hasn't really changed basically, 62 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: what they want to do is create um do two things. 63 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 1: One is to create a digital advertising company can be 64 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 1: a real kind of counterweight to Google and Facebook, which 65 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: right now dominate all of the advertising online more than 66 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 1: half of all advertising digital advertising in the US. The 67 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: dollars are collected by those two companies. So Verizon wants 68 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: to be a third player here. And Verizon also wants 69 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: content including all you know, Yahoo Finance and Yahoo Email 70 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 1: and other Yahoo websites that, while they're not as popular 71 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: as they used to be, still have hundreds of millions 72 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: of users every month. So they think the combination of 73 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: your Verizon cell phones and UH programming digital programming owned 74 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: by Yahoo and A O L and other Verizon assets 75 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 1: can be a real attraction to their to their mobile business. 76 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 1: One share, just quickly, you afraid of being hacked? Do 77 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: you put any personal information online? I have become super 78 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: paranoid about hacking. Yes, I not to invite any thieves, 79 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: but I am aware of clicking on any email. I 80 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: try not to start accounts with companies that I don't 81 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 1: trust online. Our row is basically a bunker. Yeah, firewalls 82 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: everywhere where. The row of paranoia, the row of paranoia, 83 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: that's a strange rink to it, but I guess it's 84 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 1: not going to be alone. Thank you very much. Shara 85 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 1: over there a Bloomberg gadfly, a technology columnist giving us 86 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:32,919 Speaker 1: a lowdown on Yahoo. The US housing market took a 87 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,919 Speaker 1: little bit of a breather this last month. Housing starts 88 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: in the United States housing Yes, new housing construction declining 89 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: more than a forecast. And here to tell us more 90 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: about the housing industry is the chief executive of Realty 91 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: Shares nav off Wall. No, thanks very much for coming in. 92 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me, Pim and Lisa tell people what 93 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 1: is realty shares just before we get into details. Sure 94 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,280 Speaker 1: Realty Shares is an online market place for real estate 95 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: investing in capital. We help individual high net worth investors 96 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: deploy capital into private real estate investments across the US. 97 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 1: We've helped raise over three million dollars of capital um 98 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:12,280 Speaker 1: for these private deals and multifamily projects, single family projects, 99 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: and on the other end of our marketplace are underserved 100 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: borrowers and companies that are looking for more efficient ways 101 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 1: to raise capital or more cost effective capital and can 102 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: come to realty Shares and get financing in as little 103 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: as ten days, so really much more efficient than a 104 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: bank on the one hand, in a more direct way 105 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: to invest in real estate than a public on the 106 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 1: other hand. So here the peer to peer lender that 107 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: a lot of people think will take over the future 108 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 1: of lending, and I imagine that you're among those hoping 109 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: for that. I'm wondering from your perspective, have the applications 110 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: that have been coming in has it shown a deterioration 111 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: and consumer credit worthiness of late? We noticed in your 112 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: you mentioned in your notes that the pace of foreclosures 113 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 1: has ticked up a bit recently. Yeah, we've seen in 114 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 1: some markets the pace of foreclosure take up. There's been 115 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: a tremendous amount home price appreciation UM over the last 116 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: five six years since the Great Recession, and I think 117 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: that's resulted in some consumers over leveraging themselves and markets 118 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: like Arizona, even in Denver, So there has been an 119 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: uptick in in UM foreclosures. But you're also seeing other 120 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: counterbalancing things and happening in the market. You're seeing the 121 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: n h B, which is the home builder UM home 122 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: Builder Index on on housing actually be much higher than 123 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: it was you know too three years ago, and hit 124 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: an all time high in September. So yeah, you are 125 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: seeing some deterioration um. And you're also seeing a drop 126 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 1: in just home buyer applications because of rising interests. Right, 127 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: so there's all kinds of crazy stuff happen. Well, I 128 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 1: want to pick up on that really quickly. I mean, 129 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 1: do you think that the recent rise in UH mortgage 130 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: rates is going to substantially slow the market potentially put 131 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 1: a whole invaluations. I think the rise in interest rates 132 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 1: is definitely going to reduce the number of applications that 133 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 1: folks are filing for refinances and new home purchases. We 134 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: already saw a week over week decline of five and 135 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: a half percent for refinance and three percent for new 136 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: new home purchases. UM. So definitely it's gonna it's gonna 137 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: impact home buyer activity. But I think the bigger impact 138 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: is home prices um and just supply. There's a lot 139 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: of supply constraint out there for new home purchases. So 140 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 1: despite rising in interest rates, I think those other factors 141 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: are going to be a bigger impact on the on 142 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: the home buying activity. Is that one of the reasons 143 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 1: why you have raised money to do pre funded deals. 144 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: In other words, you're putting your own balance sheet to work. Yeah, well, 145 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 1: we we really serve the non owner occupied borrowers. So 146 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 1: we serve investment borrows. We serve folks that are buying 147 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: real estate not to live in it, but to for 148 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: an investment purpose. And that part of the market's very 149 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: underserved by banks and private equity. So we're really focused 150 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: on that part of the market. But yes, a part 151 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: portion of the deals we do we pre fund on 152 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: our own balance sheet and then we'll then syndicate them 153 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,680 Speaker 1: out on the marketplace to high net worth investors that 154 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: want to participate. We also have large institutions using the platform. Uh. 155 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: You know, coming out of the Great Recession, generating yield 156 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 1: has been very very differ coal. You have hedge funds 157 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 1: looking to you know, return their investors mid team returns, 158 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: and they can't do that in the bond market. So 159 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 1: we do have a wide variety of investors trying to 160 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: access an underserved part of the real estate capital markets. 161 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: It's pretty exciting um as as a fintech company right now. 162 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: Um I know that some of the more the larger, 163 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: more established fintech companies, peer to peer lenders have run 164 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: into a little bit of a pause in in their 165 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 1: growth trajectory. What have you experience when it comes to 166 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 1: fundraising and sort of people's skepticism around peer to peer 167 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: or acceptance of it. There's a tremendous amount of skepticism, 168 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,320 Speaker 1: and I think that's healthy in any new industry. I 169 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: was at a conference with you with the ubs UH 170 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 1: the yesterday actually, and there was a half the room 171 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 1: was very bullish on the market, and that was the 172 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 1: you know, the maybe the younger population where you were 173 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: hanging out. But I like hanging around with the skeptics 174 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: because they bring a tremendous amount of really good information 175 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 1: because they've been there, they've done that, they've been in 176 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: the market for a while, and you know, it's healthy 177 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,439 Speaker 1: to be skeptical of a new industry and technology. UM. 178 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: So it's really good to listen to the folks that 179 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 1: are skeptical and why they're skeptical. Obviously, I'm very bullish. 180 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be running the company, um, but there's a 181 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: very large amount of skepticism still in this industry, and 182 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: we're just I think education is the best way to 183 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: deal with it. What's the specific skepticism about Well, I 184 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,959 Speaker 1: think you know, people are thinking they equate this too. Oh, 185 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: this is going to lead to the next great recession. 186 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: It's like the savings and loan industry. So there's so 187 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: many analogies that are being used to describe peer to 188 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: peer lending. But I think the biggest thing that they 189 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: say is, you know, banks are they? They are they? 190 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: They already have this established base of customers. That's going 191 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 1: to be really hard for these lenders to compete for 192 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 1: the largest spend item for like a lending club is 193 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: acquiring customers right and banks already have these customers, and 194 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: they could at any point in time enter the market 195 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 1: and take market share away from these companies. But what 196 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 1: they don't realize is these tech companies are doing business 197 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 1: in a much more cost effective way, so they can 198 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:58,320 Speaker 1: offer cheaper credit to otherwise capable borrowers with high ficos 199 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 1: because they have lower opera any costs. So I think 200 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 1: that's the answer I typically give is just there there 201 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: is a place for these lenders, and I think the 202 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 1: smart banks are finding a way to work with them 203 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: rather than to say you're just going to go away 204 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 1: in three to five years. Fascinating stuff. Thank you so 205 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: much for joining us. NAVAF Well, founder and chief executive 206 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,360 Speaker 1: officer of Realty Shares, which is based in San Francisco. 207 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 1: Really really great, Thank you so much. This is a 208 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: conversation I've been waiting to have. I want to bring 209 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 1: in Constance Hunter, Chief Economistic KPMGH. I'm particularly interested in China. 210 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 1: The bond market's been selling off. The People's Bank of 211 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 1: China has been pumping billions of dollars into the financial 212 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: system in the past few days in order to bolster 213 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: it as the currency continues to decline after the FED 214 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: rate height. Constants, can you explain why the People's Bank 215 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:03,439 Speaker 1: of China I have found it necessary to pump so 216 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 1: much money into the economy in the immediate aftermath of 217 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: the Federate hike. Well, the China Chinese currency, the REM 218 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 1: and B is still largely pegged to the dollar. I mean, 219 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,079 Speaker 1: of course they'll say it's it's a basket of currencies, 220 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 1: but the US dollar makes up a far larger portion 221 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,319 Speaker 1: of the basket than any other currency. It means about 222 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: of the basket. So we're looking at a situation where 223 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 1: their policy is basically pegged to the U S policy, 224 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 1: and if the FED hikes rates um and they sterilize 225 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,560 Speaker 1: that change, then they're basically experiencing a rate hike. And 226 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 1: what they're saying is, we're not quite ready for a 227 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 1: rate hike just yet, so we're going to increase money 228 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: supply constance. I wonder if you could tell us what 229 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: you believe that will have an effect on policy in 230 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: China as much as it depends on exports still to 231 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 1: power its economy. Yeah so, um, I mean, insomuch as 232 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 1: the Federate hike increase is the value of the dollar um, 233 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: and that the rem and by has also been falling, 234 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 1: that would actually help Chinese exports not just to the US, 235 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: but really to to other countries as well. Um. Uh So, 236 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: so we do see, we do see a somewhat neutral 237 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: to positive impact from from the weaker rem and by. 238 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: But but of course there's so many things happening right 239 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: now within the global economy um, and of course within 240 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:29,439 Speaker 1: the within within the political economy. So when you think 241 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 1: about um some of the potential tax a lot changes 242 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 1: here in the US as well as as trump suggestion 243 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:39,119 Speaker 1: that that he would slap tariffs on China if necessary 244 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: if negotiations didn't yield better access for US companies, then 245 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 1: we really have a lot more going on than just 246 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: the currency situation. You know, constance the idea that China 247 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 1: is burning through its foreign currency reserves. We saw the 248 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: data showing that they've sold a good proportion of their treasuries. 249 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: Their treasury holdings are now down to the lowest since 250 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: uh in more than six years, basically in order to 251 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 1: fortify to to have money to fortify their financial system. 252 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: Are we looking at a potentially risk your situation heading 253 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:12,199 Speaker 1: into and is the potential for some sort of disorderly 254 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 1: unwind of of China's boom in the in the first 255 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 1: half of next year. So I think people have been 256 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: worried about this for for years, really that the unruly, 257 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: the hard landing versus the soft landing, the unruly unwind 258 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: um and so um. That isn't to say that it 259 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: couldn't happen next year, but this has been sort of 260 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: a lingering worry if you were out there looking for 261 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 1: things to be nervous about within the within the global economy. 262 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: One thing that I that I will say that that 263 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 1: I've heard anecdotally is a really big pickup in um 264 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 1: the amount of money that Chinese are really willing to 265 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 1: try to get out of the country. So the way 266 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: it works is there's a limit on how much each 267 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 1: individual can can take out of the country, and so 268 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: they're effectively or or what I would call money mules 269 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: that the people hire uh to to take out their 270 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 1: money and if if if it comes back to them 271 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong, then great. But people recognize if that's 272 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: risky and the money could get stolen. But but when 273 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: I talk to wealthy Chinese, they are willing to take 274 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: that risk because they want to continue to get money 275 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: out of the country. And that is never really a 276 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: very good sign that there is faith in the in 277 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 1: the regime that's in power. So it's interesting to me 278 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: that while Shijipang has has consolidated and increased his power, 279 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: um you see this phenomenon from private citizens. Where is 280 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 1: much of that money going. Is it being invested in 281 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: places like Australia and the United States or in real estate? 282 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: In real estate it's been it's being it's being left 283 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: in cash in some cases, but real estate is a 284 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: very very popular investment and in Canada as well, in 285 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: Canadian real estate. So going forward, what are you watching? 286 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: What measures are you watching to figure out whether China 287 00:15:56,160 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: is managing their slowdown well or poorly. Well, it's not 288 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: so it's not so easy. Um. So for example, if 289 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: if I look at what I did, what I looked 290 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: at in the run up to the to the US 291 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: crisis and the UM and the bubble bursting here, we 292 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: had a lot of great data that the FED collects, 293 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 1: things like mortgage actually withdrawal statistics which really went through 294 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 1: the roof UM in the run up to the crisis here, 295 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: things like the rate of change of of leverage. So 296 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: we have some of that. We can see that the 297 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: corporate um borrowing is still continuing at very significantly high rates. 298 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: We can see that that remany loans are still increasing, 299 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: so we we have some data, but there's also a 300 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: lot of off balance sheet UM loans that are being created, 301 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: which is more difficult to track. One of the things 302 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: that I think is interesting with China if you look 303 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: at just something simple like their industrial production statistics. We 304 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: used to see double digit industrial production statistics and and 305 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: think that that was normal because China was playing catchup. 306 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 1: And now we look at the annual the year a 307 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,199 Speaker 1: year industrial production, it's running in about six percent and 308 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 1: it has been for the last six months. So Uh, 309 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: this is this is definitely puts them in a different gear. 310 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: So whether or not they get that six point seven 311 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 1: percent growth next year, it really depends upon how stable 312 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 1: the economy is and and so things like industrial production 313 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 1: are are interesting to look at. If we see that 314 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,160 Speaker 1: falling off, it's going to be a flag, a red 315 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 1: flag that the the economy is slowing more than they 316 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: intend constance. Uh, from the perspective of a US investor, 317 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: what assets are most vulnerable to a China slowdown? M 318 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: That is an excellent question. And you mentioned something earlier 319 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,359 Speaker 1: which I think people worry about, but it perhaps is 320 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 1: an over over or unfounded fear, and that is their 321 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,360 Speaker 1: US treasury holdings. So you you you noted a really 322 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 1: important fact, which is that the treasury holdings are at 323 00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: the lowest they've been in six years. So this idea 324 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: that we're going to have a surge up and interest 325 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 1: rates when China um withdraw us their support of US treasuries, 326 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 1: that may have already happened, and that could be a 327 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 1: big contributing factor to the rising eels we've seen since 328 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: September and the hundred basis points we've seen since the election. Uh. 329 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 1: But in terms of other assets. Obviously real estate is 330 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: a big one. So if if the Chinese, if if 331 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 1: you really have UM a crash in China's economy, what 332 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: happens then is that value gets destroyed. So if you 333 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: have a bubble that's been fueled by debt, when that 334 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: comes home to roost and the debt is no longer good, 335 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 1: then there really is literally a destruction of cash, a 336 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: destruction of values. There would be less money to invest 337 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:44,120 Speaker 1: in things like real estate and other assets. UM, those 338 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: other other assets like art wine, UM I would see 339 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: softness in those those markets as well. And then in 340 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: terms of forecasting, UM, where the softness comes within the 341 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 1: equity market that that is across the board. I mean 342 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 1: it would, it would. It would depend on individual stocks 343 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: and how much Chinese investment there is in them. Thanks 344 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:09,160 Speaker 1: very much. Constance Hunter is the chief economist at a KPMG. 345 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 1: This is one of the questions that I have been wondering. 346 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,719 Speaker 1: You know, President elect Donald Trump has taken to Twitter 347 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:33,439 Speaker 1: with many different announcements of a variety of topics. UM. 348 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 1: The ones having to do with business, though, particularly targeting 349 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: companies such as boeing UM have had pretty substantial market effects. 350 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: I want to bring in Rob Trick and Elly, senior 351 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 1: legal editor for Bloomberg b n A, and with the 352 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 1: potential consequences of that could be Rob, thank you so 353 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: much for joining us. So is this something? Is President 354 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: elect Trump's Twitter activity with respect to corporate America potential 355 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 1: I don't know, point of investigation for the SEC? He Uh, yeah, 356 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 1: well thanks for having me first. I think, Um, there's 357 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 1: politics involved to write because if the SEC, uh would 358 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 1: investigate this, Um, you have to bear in mind that 359 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: the SEC chairman is someone that Donald Trump would have appointed, 360 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 1: and you know, so there is that to consider. But um, 361 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,880 Speaker 1: there's there's really a lot here. Uh. Trump has said 362 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 1: he's sold all his stocks, so maybe he's you know, 363 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: there's nothing for him personally, but maybe you would look 364 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: to what his if his you know, some of his 365 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: inner circle are trading on what they know he's about 366 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 1: to tweet. But I mean you can look at this 367 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 1: a lot of different ways. But from the SEC angle, Um, 368 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 1: they are interested in you know, if someone has a 369 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: duty to keep information confidential and not trade on it 370 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 1: and they breached that duty, the SEC is interested in 371 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 1: investigating that. Rob, If these tweets and these messages that 372 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 1: have made public were not being made public by either 373 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,639 Speaker 1: the president elect or a top government official. What would 374 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 1: be the SEC stance on something that is moving markets 375 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 1: If somebody tweets something or says something in public and 376 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: it changes the value of a stock or or changes 377 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: the direction of the market, what would the SEC say, Well, 378 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,400 Speaker 1: you would make an analogy to a company here for example. 379 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 1: So there are SEC regulations for public companies when they 380 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: introduce new information about what's going on with their business 381 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,199 Speaker 1: that they kind of they have to make that information 382 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,640 Speaker 1: public and kind of presented in a fair way for 383 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 1: for anyone to trade on it. And there are you know, 384 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 1: there are procedures regulating that for companies, and you also 385 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:43,200 Speaker 1: have procedures regulating it for the government too, I mean 386 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:47,400 Speaker 1: FED releases, SEC Enforcement actions, Bureau of Labor statistics data. 387 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: They all have to be presented in a way that 388 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: kind of everyone has access to it all at the 389 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 1: same time. And so if you start having these market 390 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: moving opinions behind closed doors but people know about it, 391 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: um that that can be problematic too. Is there any 392 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:10,360 Speaker 1: precedent for this type of specific corporate UH discussions by 393 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 1: a president elect or a standing president? I mean has 394 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: there ever been a president that has specifically gone after 395 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: companies publicly about certain contracts and uh and policies and jobs. Uh, 396 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 1: I mean is this is there anything? Is there any 397 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: historical president whatsoever? Uh? Not recently. I mean you would 398 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: have to go back to UM. You know, maybe like 399 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 1: President Johnson would would would speak about you know, kind 400 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: of more you know, industry more generally or something like that. 401 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: But it's it's kind of unheard of in recent in 402 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 1: recent memory. And it's even if it if this were 403 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: a common practice, you know a long time ago, you know, 404 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: going after trusts or or something like that, you're dealing 405 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 1: with a very different universe now, just with all this 406 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: technology that allows you know, trading immediately and and this 407 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 1: kind of market moving information and so UM. This is 408 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: new in recent memory, and it is uncharted territory in 409 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,400 Speaker 1: the sense that there's just so many technological and financial 410 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 1: um consequences that can that can come from it. You know, 411 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,640 Speaker 1: it seems like in general, regulators right now want to 412 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: take the least political action as possible. We're seeing this 413 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: in a lot of different fronts. UM. That's at least 414 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 1: my impression that you just sort of is a desire 415 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,959 Speaker 1: to sort of maintain common maintain a sense of an 416 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 1: orderly transition to the next presidential administration. Uh am, I 417 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 1: correct in that sort of sense, or or are there 418 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 1: signs that that people are embracing sort of a politicization, uh, 419 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:47,880 Speaker 1: politicalization of the regulatory posts. I think what you're what 420 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: you're going to see is UM. Your intuition is right 421 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 1: that UM regulatory. A lot of regulatory enforcers don't like 422 00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 1: to wade into political UM issues, and courts kind of 423 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:06,919 Speaker 1: don't either, but we're seeing us. I would say one 424 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 1: of the first maybe cracks in that that we're seeing 425 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 1: is this week you had the you know, the Office 426 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 1: of Government Essex coming out and saying that, well that 427 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: there's this law called the Stock Act that prohibits UM 428 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: federal employees from trading on political intelligence on information they 429 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 1: get in the course of their duties. And this letter 430 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 1: is out saying that from from the office saying that, 431 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 1: you know, Trump needs to divest or put everything in 432 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:36,159 Speaker 1: a blind trust and uh. And you know that that 433 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 1: could foreshadow more of a regulatory appetite to examine these 434 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 1: conflicts of interest. Rob Trick and Elly, thank you so much, 435 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:47,399 Speaker 1: senior Legal editor Bloomberg b n A and giving us 436 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,240 Speaker 1: more details about President elect Donald Trump and the future 437 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 1: of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Thanks for listening to 438 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg an L podcast. You can subscribe and listen 439 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 1: to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 440 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: I'm Pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at Pim Fox. 441 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 1: I'm out there on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one 442 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on 443 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.